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000
FXUS62 KGSP 060851
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPAWNS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST...OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN BY
THE END OF THE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST AS IT MOVES EAST AND
REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP AND STRONG
FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...IT REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS WELL. THIS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NELY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85...BUT THE DRY FCST CONTINUES. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
STREAM IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE GA/SC
COAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL KEEP ANY QPF WITH THIS BOMBING
SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE SREF POPS IMPLYING
ONLY A VERY NEAR MISS FOR OUR LOWER PIEDMONT ZONES. I WILL MAINTAIN
SUB-SCHC POP. THE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE BOMBING
LOW WILL KEEP A BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW ACRS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL EDGE A BIT HIGHER /JUST ABOVE CLIMO/
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING PROBABLY OFFSET BY RESTRICTED HEATING UNDER
THE WIND.

COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW WILL
BE A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. AN WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED VORT
LOBE WILL REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON MRNG...WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE EVEN EAST OF THE MTNS...PIQUING OUR INTEREST
SINCE WE DON/T GET MOISTURE WITH THESE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES EVERY
TIME THEY OCCUR. NAM AND EC ARE A LITTLE MORE EXCITING THAN THE GFS
IN THAT THEY DELAY THE LOBE A FEW HOURS...THUS BRINGING THE BETTER
QG FORCING LATER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
HAVE ALLOWED LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SFC-BASED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE. AS USUAL THE NAM SBCAPE VALUES ARE
NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IN THIS CASE COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE WAVE. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE
JUST KEEPS AFTN TEMPS TOO WARM TO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MTNS DURING THE PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS WOULD HAVE TO BE PRETTY ROBUST TO PRODUCE RATES CAPABLE OF
RAPID WET-BULBING NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
AND POTENTIALLY A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT
DO SUGGEST A SLOW TAPERING OF POPS AT THAT TIME...AND BY EVENING
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH THAT I INCLUDED A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE
PIEDMONT...WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE GROUND WOULD PROBABLY STILL
BE TOO WARM ANYWAY.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DURING THE DAY MONDAY A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR NW
FLOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY WHEN WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. ON ACCOUNT OF THE VERY COLD AIR WORKING
IN...TEMP AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW CRYSTALLIZATION
AND LIGHT BUT STEADY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE PROFILES. ONCE THE
MONDAY PERIOD ENTERS THE RANGE OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE TOTALS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENTLY...AND
A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WX ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED. TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW CLIMO FOR TUE MRNG. SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND THAT MAY
BE WRAPPED INTO ANY WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY THE FCST WILL REVOLVE...NO PUN INTENDED...AROUND THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE VORT LOBES ENCIRCLING IT.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF
SNOW TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WED...IMPLYING THEY WILL TAPER OFF BY THAT
TIME. FOR THE AREA EAST/SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS IS TO BE
EXPECTED THERE REMAINS RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE VORT
LOBES...AND IN THE FINE DETAILS THAT MIGHT ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS.
850-700MB LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER TUE...BUT STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. THE BEST SHOT AT ANY PIEDMONT ACCUMS IN THIS PERIOD DOES
APPEAR TO BE TUE AFTN...THOUGH WITH FAVORED MODEL BLEND...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SAME WET-BULB CONCERNS EXIST TUE AS NOTED FOR MON IN THE SHORT-RANGE
DISCUSSION. THAT IS...ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE MTNS IS UNLIKELY
OVERALL AND WOULD PROBABLY BE SPOTTY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO
THE MIDWEST. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES BRINGS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR WEDNESDAY...MAKING IT THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...AND ALSO BRINGING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
GUSTS AND WIND CHILLS. HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT
AND THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MODIFYING HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO END THE WEEK. TEMPS DO MODERATE
AS IT DOES SO. NEXT WAVE IN THE POLAR CIRCULATION DOES DIVE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT...AND AN ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
ON BOTH GFS/EC. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER LAND OR EVENT THIS FAR SOUTH...SO WILL NOT ADVERTISE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY LIGHT NELY
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME STRONGER NELY
WIND AFTER DAYBREAK...KAVL WILL SEE NLY WIND. LIGHT N TO NE WIND
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MID CLOUD MOVING INTO KCLT AND THE
UPSTATE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 060535
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1235 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF TX/OK. MINS SHOULD BE ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO IN
MOST AREAS.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING AND REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING LOOK MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...OUR SOURCES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMPLETELY CUT OFF AND UNAVAILABLE. THUS...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
THIS FAR INLAND WITH JUST THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
LATE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THE
CORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN
0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGA
INCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. SIMPLY PUT...THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST
REACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984
MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERY
SIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THE
PRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RANGE TO 5 MBS...SUPPORTING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS...GIVEN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW
30S. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM...CHANGING
PRECIP TO RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S WITHIN THE VALLEY FLOOR TO NEAR 50 EAST. PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ELEVATION ABOVE 3500 FEET
MAY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF
DAYLIGHT MONDAY...SEVERAL HIGH MTN PEAKS NEAR THE TN LINE MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX/TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. ONE OF THOSE SPOKES/VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS ON MONDAY. STILL...MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AS FOR
PRECIP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP /BREAKING CONTAINMENT/...SO I WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
TROF.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A LARGE MILLER-B LIKE LOW WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SO A PROLONGED MOIST NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPS START TO REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE EASTERN TROF
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING TROF OR WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE AND NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY LIGHT NELY
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME STRONGER NELY
WIND AFTER DAYBREAK...KAVL WILL SEE NLY WIND. LIGHT N TO NE WIND
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MID CLOUD MOVING INTO KCLT AND THE
UPSTATE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 060535
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1235 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF TX/OK. MINS SHOULD BE ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO IN
MOST AREAS.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING AND REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING LOOK MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...OUR SOURCES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMPLETELY CUT OFF AND UNAVAILABLE. THUS...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
THIS FAR INLAND WITH JUST THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
LATE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THE
CORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN
0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGA
INCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. SIMPLY PUT...THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST
REACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984
MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERY
SIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THE
PRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RANGE TO 5 MBS...SUPPORTING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS...GIVEN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW
30S. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM...CHANGING
PRECIP TO RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S WITHIN THE VALLEY FLOOR TO NEAR 50 EAST. PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ELEVATION ABOVE 3500 FEET
MAY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF
DAYLIGHT MONDAY...SEVERAL HIGH MTN PEAKS NEAR THE TN LINE MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX/TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. ONE OF THOSE SPOKES/VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS ON MONDAY. STILL...MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AS FOR
PRECIP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP /BREAKING CONTAINMENT/...SO I WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
TROF.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A LARGE MILLER-B LIKE LOW WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SO A PROLONGED MOIST NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPS START TO REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE EASTERN TROF
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING TROF OR WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE AND NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY LIGHT NELY
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME STRONGER NELY
WIND AFTER DAYBREAK...KAVL WILL SEE NLY WIND. LIGHT N TO NE WIND
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MID CLOUD MOVING INTO KCLT AND THE
UPSTATE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 060535
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1235 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF TX/OK. MINS SHOULD BE ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO IN
MOST AREAS.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING AND REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING LOOK MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...OUR SOURCES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMPLETELY CUT OFF AND UNAVAILABLE. THUS...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
THIS FAR INLAND WITH JUST THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
LATE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THE
CORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN
0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGA
INCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. SIMPLY PUT...THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST
REACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984
MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERY
SIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THE
PRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RANGE TO 5 MBS...SUPPORTING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS...GIVEN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW
30S. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM...CHANGING
PRECIP TO RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S WITHIN THE VALLEY FLOOR TO NEAR 50 EAST. PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ELEVATION ABOVE 3500 FEET
MAY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF
DAYLIGHT MONDAY...SEVERAL HIGH MTN PEAKS NEAR THE TN LINE MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX/TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. ONE OF THOSE SPOKES/VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS ON MONDAY. STILL...MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AS FOR
PRECIP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP /BREAKING CONTAINMENT/...SO I WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
TROF.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A LARGE MILLER-B LIKE LOW WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SO A PROLONGED MOIST NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPS START TO REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE EASTERN TROF
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING TROF OR WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE AND NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY LIGHT NELY
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME STRONGER NELY
WIND AFTER DAYBREAK...KAVL WILL SEE NLY WIND. LIGHT N TO NE WIND
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MID CLOUD MOVING INTO KCLT AND THE
UPSTATE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 060247
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
947 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...SLACKENING WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO CIRRUS THUS FAR
ACROSS THE REGION HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL A TOUCH QUICKER THAN
FORECAST. WILL THUS LOWER MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS
WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH SLOWLY BUILDING HIGH
CLOUDS EAST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TX/OK. MINS SHOULD BE ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING AND REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING LOOK MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...OUR SOURCES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMPLETELY CUT OFF AND UNAVAILABLE. THUS...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
THIS FAR INLAND WITH JUST INCREASING AND THICKENING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH LATE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THE
CORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN
0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGA
INCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. SIMPLY PUT...THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST
REACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984
MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERY
SIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THE
PRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RANGE TO 5 MBS...SUPPORTING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS...GIVEN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW
30S. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM...CHANGING
PRECIP TO RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S WITHIN THE VALLEY FLOOR TO NEAR 50 EAST. PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ELEVATION ABOVE 3500 FEET
MAY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF
DAYLIGHT MONDAY...SEVERAL HIGH MTN PEAKS NEAR THE TN LINE MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX/TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. ONE OF THOSE SPOKES/VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS ON MONDAY. STILL...MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AS FOR
PRECIP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP /BREAKING CONTAINMENT/...SO I WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
TROF.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A LARGE MILLER-B LIKE LOW WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SO A PROLONGED MOIST NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPS START TO REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE EASTERN TROF
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING TROF OR WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE AND NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT N TO NE FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONTINUED NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 052336
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS/RED RIVER VALLEY
REGION AND SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL EAST OF THIS SYSTEM AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CIRRUS WILL NOT GREATLY IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ARE STILL
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING AND REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING LOOK MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...OUR SOURCES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMPLETELY CUT OFF AND UNAVAILABLE. THUS...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
THIS FAR INLAND WITH JUST INCREASING AND THICKENING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH LATE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THE
CORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN
0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGA
INCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. SIMPLY PUT...THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST
REACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984
MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERY
SIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THE
PRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RANGE TO 5 MBS...SUPPORTING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS...GIVEN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW
30S. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM...CHANGING
PRECIP TO RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S WITHIN THE VALLEY FLOOR TO NEAR 50 EAST. PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ELEVATION ABOVE 3500 FEET
MAY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF
DAYLIGHT MONDAY...SEVERAL HIGH MTN PEAKS NEAR THE TN LINE MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX/TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. ONE OF THOSE SPOKES/VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS ON MONDAY. STILL...MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AS FOR
PRECIP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP /BREAKING CONTAINMENT/...SO I WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
TROF.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A LARGE MILLER-B LIKE LOW WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SO A PROLONGED MOIST NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPS START TO REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE EASTERN TROF
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING TROF OR WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE AND NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT N TO NE FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONTINUED NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 052336
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS/RED RIVER VALLEY
REGION AND SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL EAST OF THIS SYSTEM AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CIRRUS WILL NOT GREATLY IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ARE STILL
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING AND REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING LOOK MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...OUR SOURCES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMPLETELY CUT OFF AND UNAVAILABLE. THUS...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
THIS FAR INLAND WITH JUST INCREASING AND THICKENING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH LATE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THE
CORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN
0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGA
INCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. SIMPLY PUT...THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST
REACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984
MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERY
SIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THE
PRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RANGE TO 5 MBS...SUPPORTING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS...GIVEN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW
30S. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM...CHANGING
PRECIP TO RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S WITHIN THE VALLEY FLOOR TO NEAR 50 EAST. PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ELEVATION ABOVE 3500 FEET
MAY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF
DAYLIGHT MONDAY...SEVERAL HIGH MTN PEAKS NEAR THE TN LINE MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX/TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. ONE OF THOSE SPOKES/VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS ON MONDAY. STILL...MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AS FOR
PRECIP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP /BREAKING CONTAINMENT/...SO I WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
TROF.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A LARGE MILLER-B LIKE LOW WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SO A PROLONGED MOIST NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPS START TO REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE EASTERN TROF
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING TROF OR WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE AND NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT N TO NE FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONTINUED NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 052336
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS/RED RIVER VALLEY
REGION AND SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL EAST OF THIS SYSTEM AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CIRRUS WILL NOT GREATLY IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ARE STILL
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING AND REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING LOOK MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...OUR SOURCES OF MOISTURE ARE
COMPLETELY CUT OFF AND UNAVAILABLE. THUS...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
THIS FAR INLAND WITH JUST INCREASING AND THICKENING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH LATE DAY. LINGERING COOL THICKNESSES AND THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THE
CORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN
0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGA
INCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. SIMPLY PUT...THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST
REACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984
MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERY
SIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THE
PRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RANGE TO 5 MBS...SUPPORTING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS...GIVEN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW
30S. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM...CHANGING
PRECIP TO RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S WITHIN THE VALLEY FLOOR TO NEAR 50 EAST. PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ELEVATION ABOVE 3500 FEET
MAY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF
DAYLIGHT MONDAY...SEVERAL HIGH MTN PEAKS NEAR THE TN LINE MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX/TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. ONE OF THOSE SPOKES/VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS ON MONDAY. STILL...MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AS FOR
PRECIP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP /BREAKING CONTAINMENT/...SO I WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
TROF.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A LARGE MILLER-B LIKE LOW WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SO A PROLONGED MOIST NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPS START TO REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE EASTERN TROF
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING TROF OR WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE AND NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT N TO NE FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONTINUED NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 051948
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...WIND HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
SEASONALLY COOL.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...IN SPITE OF THE APPROACH OF A
VIGOROUS LOOKING UPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT AND ITS ARRIVAL BY LATE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT BUT
WEAKEN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF FIVE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...EVEN WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...OWING TO
THE SOURCE REGION OF THE AIR MASS. ON SATURDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ENCROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND REACH AT LEAST THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
MID/UPPER FORCING LOOK MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION...OUR
SOURCES OF MOISTURE ARE COMPLETELY CUTOFF AND UNAVAILABLE. THUS...
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY THIS FAR INLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOL
AGAIN AS INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH/MID CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...VERY INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. AT H3...THE
CORE OF A 135 KTS JET WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST BETWEEN
0Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BY 0Z MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS INDICATES H7 OMEGA
INCREASING TO OVER 150 UBAR/S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. SIMPLY PUT, THIS ENVIROMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE OR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE MOST
REACTIVE WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 1017 MB AT 0Z SUN TO 984
MB AT 21Z SUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A VERY
SIMILAR RATE OF PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WOULD MEET OR EXCEED THE
PRESSURE FALL RATE TO QUALIFY AS A BOMB CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RANGE TO 5 MBS...SUPPORTING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS...GIVEN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW
30S. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM...CHANGING
PRECIP TO RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S WITHIN THE VALLEY FLOOR TO NEAR 50 EAST. PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...ELEVATION ABOVE 3500 FEET
MAY REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF
DAYLIGHT MONDAY...SEVERAL HIGH MTN PEAKS NEAR THE TN LINE MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX/TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. ONE OF THOSE SPOKES/VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP AS ON MONDAY. STILL...MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER NW UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. AS FOR
PRECIP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PRECIP /BREAKING CONTAINMENT/...SO I WILL ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
TROF.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A LARGE MILLER-B LIKE LOW WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. SO A PROLONGED MOIST NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPS START TO REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE EASTERN TROF
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING TROF OR WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE AND NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKY
THRU DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY N OR NNW. ON SATURDAY...WIND SHOULD COME UP
FROM THE NE OR ENE BY MID-MORNING...AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INVADE
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 051732
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1232 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...WIND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HAVE HAD TO MAKE AN ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO RH FOR THE MID AFTERNOON BASED ON RECENT OBS.
TEMPS LOOK OKAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT
SHUD SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
FROM SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKY
THRU DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY N OR NNW. ON SATURDAY...WIND SHOULD COME UP
FROM THE NE OR ENE BY MID-MORNING...AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INVADE
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 051732
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1232 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...WIND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HAVE HAD TO MAKE AN ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO RH FOR THE MID AFTERNOON BASED ON RECENT OBS.
TEMPS LOOK OKAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT
SHUD SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
FROM SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKY
THRU DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY N OR NNW. ON SATURDAY...WIND SHOULD COME UP
FROM THE NE OR ENE BY MID-MORNING...AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INVADE
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 051732
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1232 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...WIND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HAVE HAD TO MAKE AN ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO RH FOR THE MID AFTERNOON BASED ON RECENT OBS.
TEMPS LOOK OKAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT
SHUD SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
FROM SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKY
THRU DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY N OR NNW. ON SATURDAY...WIND SHOULD COME UP
FROM THE NE OR ENE BY MID-MORNING...AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INVADE
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 051438
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
938 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...NOT REALLY SEEING THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WE THOUGHT
WOULD LINGER ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. WHILE YOU MIGHT
STILL CALL IT A WINDY MORNING...IT DOES NOT REALLY MEET WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE. THE OTHER DEFICIENCY APPEARS TO BE WITH THE
DEWPOINT. STRONG MIXING WAS PULLING DOWN MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT...
RESULTING IN THE DEWPOINT BEING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST.
WILL MAKE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO RH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY DAY WITH SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT SHUD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM
SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TURN NELY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS AT KAVL AND LIGHTER MORE NWLY WINDS AT KAND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 051438
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
938 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...NOT REALLY SEEING THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WE THOUGHT
WOULD LINGER ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. WHILE YOU MIGHT
STILL CALL IT A WINDY MORNING...IT DOES NOT REALLY MEET WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE. THE OTHER DEFICIENCY APPEARS TO BE WITH THE
DEWPOINT. STRONG MIXING WAS PULLING DOWN MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT...
RESULTING IN THE DEWPOINT BEING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST.
WILL MAKE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO RH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY DAY WITH SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT SHUD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM
SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TURN NELY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS AT KAVL AND LIGHTER MORE NWLY WINDS AT KAND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 051438
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
938 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...NOT REALLY SEEING THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WE THOUGHT
WOULD LINGER ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. WHILE YOU MIGHT
STILL CALL IT A WINDY MORNING...IT DOES NOT REALLY MEET WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE. THE OTHER DEFICIENCY APPEARS TO BE WITH THE
DEWPOINT. STRONG MIXING WAS PULLING DOWN MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT...
RESULTING IN THE DEWPOINT BEING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST.
WILL MAKE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO RH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY DAY WITH SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT SHUD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM
SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TURN NELY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS AT KAVL AND LIGHTER MORE NWLY WINDS AT KAND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 051121
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND
SAT PIX SHOW THE CLOUDS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THRU THE REST OF THE DAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER MID
MORNING...SO ADVISORY STILL ON TRACK. BREEZY TO WINDY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ELSEWHERE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT SHUD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM
SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TURN NELY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS AT KAVL AND LIGHTER MORE NWLY WINDS AT KAND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 051121
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND
SAT PIX SHOW THE CLOUDS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THRU THE REST OF THE DAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER MID
MORNING...SO ADVISORY STILL ON TRACK. BREEZY TO WINDY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ELSEWHERE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT SHUD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM
SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TURN NELY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS AT KAVL AND LIGHTER MORE NWLY WINDS AT KAND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 051121
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND
SAT PIX SHOW THE CLOUDS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THRU THE REST OF THE DAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER MID
MORNING...SO ADVISORY STILL ON TRACK. BREEZY TO WINDY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ELSEWHERE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT SHUD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM
SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TURN NELY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS AT KAVL AND LIGHTER MORE NWLY WINDS AT KAND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 050836
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE LOW COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY...BRINGING FRIGID CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM...RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS...PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE ATTM AHEAD OF A QUICKLY
MOVING STRONG SHORT WAVE. THIS IS QUITE EXTRAORDINARY...AND SHOWS
JUST HOW COLD THE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS...AS SURFACE TEMPS
ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AS HIGH AS THE MID 40S...AND SNOW IS STILL
FALLING. EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK AS THE
SHORT WAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIP AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS ON ROADWAYS AND
ONLY A DUSTING IN GRASSY AREAS AT BEST. SKIES SHUD CLEAR QUICKLY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE AS WELL. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SO WILL KEEP THE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY...WINDY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU THE NITE. SKIES START OUT CLEAR...BUT SHUD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THRU THE NITE. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM
SEEING PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY
MORNING AS PHASED TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CUT
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN END OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAPIDLY
SPINNING UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL
NUMBER OF SREF MEMBERS DO SPREAD SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
INTO THE SRN NC AND SC PIEDMONT...BUT THE REST OF THE CONSULTED
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA. THESE ARE OUTLIERS
FROM THE OVERALL MODEL ENVELOPE...SO IT SEEMS BEST TO KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES. THESE MINUSCULE CHANCES WILL DECLINE
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE COAST. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM ONLY BRIEFLY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CUTOFF LOW
DIVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT OVER THE AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY THIS TIME. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT EXPAND BEYOND THE MTNS
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...TICKING UP SLIGHTLY SUNDAY UNDER GREATER THICKNESSES
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...AND RETURNING TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MONDAY...REACHING ITS GREATEST EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK. VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN WILL BRING BOUTS
OF QG FORCING EACH DAY FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. ARRIVING ARCTIC
AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD EACH DAY MON-WED...MAXES
AS MUCH AS 15-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST ROBUST BOUT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...CONCURRENT
WITH STRONG 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOLID
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AFTN
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...BUT
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE SFC. IN THE MTNS PRECIP WILL START
AND END AS SNOW...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH WARMING DURING THE DAY TO
PERMIT RAIN FOR A TIME. EAST OF THE MTNS...IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY. PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE TECHNIQUE BASED ON EITHER GFS OR
EC SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN-SNOW...TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS HOWEVER DO NOT
SUGGEST MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB
EFFECTS TO SPEED THE TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WE
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE
TEMPS ARE MOST CONDUCIVE AND DOWNSLOPING WILL HAVE LESSER IMPACT.

CHANCES TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MON EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST SHOT
OF FORCING. THE SUBSEQUENT LOBES TUE AND WED DO NOT BEAR QUITE AS
MUCH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH NW
FLOW BEING AIDED BY THE QG FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG
THE TENN BORDER WILL PERSIST MORE OR LESS CONSTANTLY INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUSTY NLY WINDS AND LOW VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU
DAYBREAK. STILL EXPECT SOME SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSES THRU. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS. SKIES CLEAR THRU THE MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST AND AND ATMOS DRIES OUT. HOWEVER...STRONGER GUSTY NLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS AT KAVL AND LIGHTER WINDS AT KAND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 050546
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1246 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM...RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. HAVE UPDATED POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT WITH LOW
WET BULBS...STILL EXPECT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. STILL...SHUD
NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS...GIVEN THE
TEMPS AND QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP. WILL GENERALLY STAY THE COURSE ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR YET ANOTHER SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT ON POP INTO A MORE SOLID CHANCE RANGE TOWARD THE CLT
METRO AREA. STILL FEEL A QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
UNDER ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT MUCH MORE LIKELY IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MORE PERSISTENT NW FLOW...BETTER MOISTURE...AND
COLDER AIR/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE WIND
ADVISORY...BUT WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND THE DEEPENING NC
COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SUNNY WINTER DAY. THE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.

ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUSTY NLY WINDS AND LOW VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU
DAYBREAK. STILL EXPECT SOME SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSES THRU. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS. SKIES CLEAR THRU THE MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST AND AND ATMOS DRIES OUT. HOWEVER...STRONGER GUSTY NLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS AT KAVL AND LIGHTER WINDS AT KAND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       MED   62%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  81%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 050252
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
952 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP 500 MB
HEIGHT PROGNOSTICS DEPICT THE POTENT UPPER VORTICITY LOBE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE SW NC MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING. RADAR CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SOME INTERMITTENT 5 TO 10 DBZ REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER
OUR AREA...BUT WITHOUT ANY COHERENT SHOWERS YET. THIS DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...BUT WITH
MODEL DEVELOPMENT STILL MORE SOLIDLY FOCUSED ON THE 06Z TO 10Z
PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...PROFILES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
COOL AND NEARLY ALL THE MODELS NOW HAVE SOME MOISTURE DEVELOPING
VERTICALLY TOWARD THE SNOW GROWTH REGION OVERNIGHT AND ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO FORM...WITH A PTYPE MIX OVER TO SNOW UNDER ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL GENERALLY STAY
THE COURSE ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR YET ANOTHER SLIGHT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT ON POP INTO A MORE SOLID CHANCE RANGE TOWARD THE
CLT METRO AREA. STILL FEEL A QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT UNDER ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT MUCH MORE LIKELY IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MORE PERSISTENT NW FLOW...BETTER
MOISTURE...AND COLDER AIR/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE WIND
ADVISORY...BUT WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND THE DEEPENING NC
COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SUNNY WINTER DAY. THE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.

ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PESKY MVFR CIGS FINALLY LET GO EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...APPROACHING UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SLOWLY
DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD LOCK LOWER END VFR CIGS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE PASSING SHORTWAVE THAT PEAKS
FORCING OVER THE KCLT AREA MAINLY 07Z TO 11Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE A TEMPO FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER THICKENESSES/TEMPS
SHOULD BE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY THAT TIME...ALONG WITH SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING UNDER ANY SHOWERS. THE NRLY FLOW GRADIENT WILL
STEADILY INCREASE AS WELL...AND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES UP THE COAST...THEN SLOWLY ABATE
THROUGH THE AFTN. SOME LIGHT DAYBREAK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT UNDER ANY BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS...BUT THE EVENT
DURATION WILL BE TOO SHORT FOR ANY ADVISORY/AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING
PRODUCTS AT PRESENT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER AS THE PASSING UPPER
WAVE RAPIDLY INCREASES FORCING IN THE COLUMN INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL WRAP WESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO
PERMIT ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW...AT TIMES OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN A VCSH MENTION AT THIS POINT. NW FLOW MOISTURE COULD ALLOW
SNOW SHOWERS TO FLIRT WITH KAVL AS WELL...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY
CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER. WIND GUSTS WILL STEADILY DEVELOP AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 POSSIBLE AT
KAVL AND INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   55%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-
     503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 042354
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW THE FIRST HINTS OF
LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS ITS PUSH TOWARD THE BASE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE WAVE WILL REACH
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN TRANSIT QUICKLY OUT
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE CURRENT LIMITED MOISTURE IN PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AND ANY
BURSTS OF SHOWERS UNDER THE PASSING VORT COULD QUICKLY AND EASILY
DROP A DUSTING OF SNOW ON AFFECTED LOCATIONS. WILL PUSH POPS UPWARD
INTO THE MORE SOLID CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...BUT ANY LIGHT ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE GROUND AND NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS ARE ALREADY MUCH COOLER.

WINDS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST AND THE DEEPENING NC COASTAL LOW TO YIELD SOME MARGINAL
ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED IN THIS
AREA...AND GUSTS HAVE BEEN BEEFED UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHERN TIER...AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SUNNY WINTER DAY. THE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.

ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PESKY MVFR CIGS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT IS STARTING TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST WHICH PROVIDES SOME
QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CIGS CAN LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL THUS FEATURE MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE THAT PEAKS FORCING OVER THE KCLT AREA MAINLY
07Z TO 11Z. GIVEN THE TIME RESTRICTIONS...WILL RAMP UP TO A TEMPO
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER THICKENESSES/TEMPS SHOULD BE ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST BY THAT TIME ALONG WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING UNDER
ANY SHOWERS. THE NRLY FLOW GRADIENT WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS
WELL...AND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AFTER 04Z...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES UP THE COAST...THEN SLOWLY
ABATING THROUGH THE AFTN. SOME LIGHT DAYBREAK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT UNDER ANY BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS...BUT
THE EVENT DURATION WILL BE TOO SHORT FOR ANY ADVISORY/AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING PRODUCTS AT PRESENT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER AS THE PASSING UPPER
WAVE RAPIDLY INCREASES FORCING IN THE COLUMN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL WRAP WESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO PERMIT
ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW...AT TIMES OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING MORE
THAN A VCSH MENTION AT THIS POINT. WIND GUSTS WILL STEADILY DEVELOP
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 POSSIBLE
AT KAVL AND INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THE GRADIENT WILL
SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   55%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 042354
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW THE FIRST HINTS OF
LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS ITS PUSH TOWARD THE BASE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE WAVE WILL REACH
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN TRANSIT QUICKLY OUT
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE CURRENT LIMITED MOISTURE IN PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AND ANY
BURSTS OF SHOWERS UNDER THE PASSING VORT COULD QUICKLY AND EASILY
DROP A DUSTING OF SNOW ON AFFECTED LOCATIONS. WILL PUSH POPS UPWARD
INTO THE MORE SOLID CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...BUT ANY LIGHT ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE GROUND AND NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS ARE ALREADY MUCH COOLER.

WINDS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST AND THE DEEPENING NC COASTAL LOW TO YIELD SOME MARGINAL
ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED IN THIS
AREA...AND GUSTS HAVE BEEN BEEFED UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHERN TIER...AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SUNNY WINTER DAY. THE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.

ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PESKY MVFR CIGS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT IS STARTING TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST WHICH PROVIDES SOME
QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CIGS CAN LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL THUS FEATURE MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE THAT PEAKS FORCING OVER THE KCLT AREA MAINLY
07Z TO 11Z. GIVEN THE TIME RESTRICTIONS...WILL RAMP UP TO A TEMPO
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER THICKENESSES/TEMPS SHOULD BE ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST BY THAT TIME ALONG WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING UNDER
ANY SHOWERS. THE NRLY FLOW GRADIENT WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS
WELL...AND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AFTER 04Z...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES UP THE COAST...THEN SLOWLY
ABATING THROUGH THE AFTN. SOME LIGHT DAYBREAK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT UNDER ANY BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS...BUT
THE EVENT DURATION WILL BE TOO SHORT FOR ANY ADVISORY/AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING PRODUCTS AT PRESENT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER AS THE PASSING UPPER
WAVE RAPIDLY INCREASES FORCING IN THE COLUMN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL WRAP WESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO PERMIT
ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW...AT TIMES OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING MORE
THAN A VCSH MENTION AT THIS POINT. WIND GUSTS WILL STEADILY DEVELOP
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 POSSIBLE
AT KAVL AND INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THE GRADIENT WILL
SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   55%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 042354
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW THE FIRST HINTS OF
LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS ITS PUSH TOWARD THE BASE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE WAVE WILL REACH
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN TRANSIT QUICKLY OUT
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE CURRENT LIMITED MOISTURE IN PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AND ANY
BURSTS OF SHOWERS UNDER THE PASSING VORT COULD QUICKLY AND EASILY
DROP A DUSTING OF SNOW ON AFFECTED LOCATIONS. WILL PUSH POPS UPWARD
INTO THE MORE SOLID CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...BUT ANY LIGHT ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE GROUND AND NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS ARE ALREADY MUCH COOLER.

WINDS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST AND THE DEEPENING NC COASTAL LOW TO YIELD SOME MARGINAL
ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED IN THIS
AREA...AND GUSTS HAVE BEEN BEEFED UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHERN TIER...AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SUNNY WINTER DAY. THE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.

ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PESKY MVFR CIGS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT IS STARTING TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST WHICH PROVIDES SOME
QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CIGS CAN LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL THUS FEATURE MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE THAT PEAKS FORCING OVER THE KCLT AREA MAINLY
07Z TO 11Z. GIVEN THE TIME RESTRICTIONS...WILL RAMP UP TO A TEMPO
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER THICKENESSES/TEMPS SHOULD BE ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST BY THAT TIME ALONG WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING UNDER
ANY SHOWERS. THE NRLY FLOW GRADIENT WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS
WELL...AND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AFTER 04Z...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES UP THE COAST...THEN SLOWLY
ABATING THROUGH THE AFTN. SOME LIGHT DAYBREAK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT UNDER ANY BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS...BUT
THE EVENT DURATION WILL BE TOO SHORT FOR ANY ADVISORY/AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING PRODUCTS AT PRESENT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER AS THE PASSING UPPER
WAVE RAPIDLY INCREASES FORCING IN THE COLUMN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL WRAP WESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO PERMIT
ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW...AT TIMES OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING MORE
THAN A VCSH MENTION AT THIS POINT. WIND GUSTS WILL STEADILY DEVELOP
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 POSSIBLE
AT KAVL AND INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THE GRADIENT WILL
SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   55%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 041942
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT PRECIP HAS BEEN SHUNTED
OFF TO THE EAST...CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF UNION COUNTY NC...BUT NOT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANYTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UNION COUNTY AND A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SE PART OF THE CLT
METRO AREA. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS. HIGH TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD WORK OUT JUST FINE.

THE SITUATION GETS INTERESTING THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONG SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY ABOUT TO
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI R. THE SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A SHOT OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF DPVA AND WARM ADVECTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH A
TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT SHOULD INJECT SOME STRATOSPHERIC VORTICITY INTO
THE MIX. THIS WILL GREATLY HELP CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF NC
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY ALSO FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE MID- TO LATE-EVENING. WHAT IT LACKS
IS LOW LEVEL FORCING...WHICH IS MERELY WEAK IF THE 850MB LOW MOVES
AS PLANNED TO THE NORTH. THE GEFS IS PARTICULARLY INSISTENT THAT AT
LEAST THE NC PIEDMONT WILL SEE SOME PRECIP LATE THIS EVENING. THE
HRRR AND WRF-NMM AGREE...WHILE THE ARW IS NOT AS IMPRESSED. EVEN THE
NEW ECMWF AND 15Z RUN OF THE SREF AGREE IN PRINCIPLE WITH LIGHT
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. SO...THE FCST WILL FOLLOW A
TREND IN THAT DIRECTION WITH A LARGER AREA OF CHANCE POP OVER THE NC
WRN PIEDMONT. KEEP AN EYE ON THE CAM GUIDANCE AND 18Z RUNS...AS THIS
MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP CONSIDERABLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING IF THE TREND CONTINUES. ASSUMING THE PRECIP DEVELOPS...THE
RACE BETWEEN IT AND THE COLD AIR WILL BE UNDERWAY. THICKNESS WILL
DROP AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...SUCH THAT ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER FROM N TO
S BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. RIGHT NOW...THAT LEAVES OPEN ONLY THE
NARROWEST OF WINDOWS TO SEE ANY SNOW. THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW AND THE
TIMING TOO SHORT TO EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION...AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO. BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD ACCUMULATE
OVER THE EAST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 30S.

THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS RELATIVELY BORING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A SEASONALLY
COOL AND SUNNY WINTER DAY. WIND COULD BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE
RIDGETOPS IN THE MORNING...AND TO THE LEE OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS...
BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.

ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IT CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN MVFR CEILING REMAINED ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT...BUT
DRIER AIR WAS SLOWLY FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. THINK THAT BY MID
AFTERNOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AND VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH A
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CEILING. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO FOR THE MVFR CEILING
THRU THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS COULD BE FOR TOO LONG OF A PERIOD.
WIND SHOULD REMAIN NE TO N INTO THE MID EVENING. THINGS GET MURKY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
SHORT WAVE ALOFT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. DEEP LAYER FORCING LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR
PRECIP PRODUCTION FROM MAINLY A VFR CLOUD DECK. THIS SHOULD BE IN A
LIQUID FORM IF IT HAPPENS BEFORE 06Z WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING
MOVES THRU AND TEMPS HAVE NOT COOLED EXCESSIVELY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IF ANY PRECIP PERSISTS PAST 06Z...IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. HOWEVER...A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AT KCLT BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z FRIDAY. SKY SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND DAYBREAK.
THEREAFTER...WITH A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION...WE
SHOULD HAVE A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THRU THE PERIOD. CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD HAVE BASES AT LEAST 050. WIND WILL COME AROUND TO N AND
NW. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 041942
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT PRECIP HAS BEEN SHUNTED
OFF TO THE EAST...CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF UNION COUNTY NC...BUT NOT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANYTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UNION COUNTY AND A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SE PART OF THE CLT
METRO AREA. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS. HIGH TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD WORK OUT JUST FINE.

THE SITUATION GETS INTERESTING THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONG SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY ABOUT TO
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI R. THE SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A SHOT OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF DPVA AND WARM ADVECTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH A
TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT SHOULD INJECT SOME STRATOSPHERIC VORTICITY INTO
THE MIX. THIS WILL GREATLY HELP CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF NC
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY ALSO FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE MID- TO LATE-EVENING. WHAT IT LACKS
IS LOW LEVEL FORCING...WHICH IS MERELY WEAK IF THE 850MB LOW MOVES
AS PLANNED TO THE NORTH. THE GEFS IS PARTICULARLY INSISTENT THAT AT
LEAST THE NC PIEDMONT WILL SEE SOME PRECIP LATE THIS EVENING. THE
HRRR AND WRF-NMM AGREE...WHILE THE ARW IS NOT AS IMPRESSED. EVEN THE
NEW ECMWF AND 15Z RUN OF THE SREF AGREE IN PRINCIPLE WITH LIGHT
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. SO...THE FCST WILL FOLLOW A
TREND IN THAT DIRECTION WITH A LARGER AREA OF CHANCE POP OVER THE NC
WRN PIEDMONT. KEEP AN EYE ON THE CAM GUIDANCE AND 18Z RUNS...AS THIS
MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP CONSIDERABLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING IF THE TREND CONTINUES. ASSUMING THE PRECIP DEVELOPS...THE
RACE BETWEEN IT AND THE COLD AIR WILL BE UNDERWAY. THICKNESS WILL
DROP AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...SUCH THAT ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER FROM N TO
S BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. RIGHT NOW...THAT LEAVES OPEN ONLY THE
NARROWEST OF WINDOWS TO SEE ANY SNOW. THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW AND THE
TIMING TOO SHORT TO EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION...AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO. BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD ACCUMULATE
OVER THE EAST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 30S.

THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS RELATIVELY BORING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A SEASONALLY
COOL AND SUNNY WINTER DAY. WIND COULD BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE
RIDGETOPS IN THE MORNING...AND TO THE LEE OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS...
BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.

ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IT CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN MVFR CEILING REMAINED ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT...BUT
DRIER AIR WAS SLOWLY FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. THINK THAT BY MID
AFTERNOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AND VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH A
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CEILING. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO FOR THE MVFR CEILING
THRU THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS COULD BE FOR TOO LONG OF A PERIOD.
WIND SHOULD REMAIN NE TO N INTO THE MID EVENING. THINGS GET MURKY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
SHORT WAVE ALOFT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. DEEP LAYER FORCING LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR
PRECIP PRODUCTION FROM MAINLY A VFR CLOUD DECK. THIS SHOULD BE IN A
LIQUID FORM IF IT HAPPENS BEFORE 06Z WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING
MOVES THRU AND TEMPS HAVE NOT COOLED EXCESSIVELY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IF ANY PRECIP PERSISTS PAST 06Z...IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. HOWEVER...A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AT KCLT BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z FRIDAY. SKY SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND DAYBREAK.
THEREAFTER...WITH A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION...WE
SHOULD HAVE A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THRU THE PERIOD. CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD HAVE BASES AT LEAST 050. WIND WILL COME AROUND TO N AND
NW. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041942
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT PRECIP HAS BEEN SHUNTED
OFF TO THE EAST...CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF UNION COUNTY NC...BUT NOT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANYTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UNION COUNTY AND A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE SE PART OF THE CLT
METRO AREA. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS. HIGH TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD WORK OUT JUST FINE.

THE SITUATION GETS INTERESTING THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONG SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY ABOUT TO
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI R. THE SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A SHOT OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF DPVA AND WARM ADVECTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH A
TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT SHOULD INJECT SOME STRATOSPHERIC VORTICITY INTO
THE MIX. THIS WILL GREATLY HELP CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF NC
LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY ALSO FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE MID- TO LATE-EVENING. WHAT IT LACKS
IS LOW LEVEL FORCING...WHICH IS MERELY WEAK IF THE 850MB LOW MOVES
AS PLANNED TO THE NORTH. THE GEFS IS PARTICULARLY INSISTENT THAT AT
LEAST THE NC PIEDMONT WILL SEE SOME PRECIP LATE THIS EVENING. THE
HRRR AND WRF-NMM AGREE...WHILE THE ARW IS NOT AS IMPRESSED. EVEN THE
NEW ECMWF AND 15Z RUN OF THE SREF AGREE IN PRINCIPLE WITH LIGHT
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. SO...THE FCST WILL FOLLOW A
TREND IN THAT DIRECTION WITH A LARGER AREA OF CHANCE POP OVER THE NC
WRN PIEDMONT. KEEP AN EYE ON THE CAM GUIDANCE AND 18Z RUNS...AS THIS
MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP CONSIDERABLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING IF THE TREND CONTINUES. ASSUMING THE PRECIP DEVELOPS...THE
RACE BETWEEN IT AND THE COLD AIR WILL BE UNDERWAY. THICKNESS WILL
DROP AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...SUCH THAT ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER FROM N TO
S BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. RIGHT NOW...THAT LEAVES OPEN ONLY THE
NARROWEST OF WINDOWS TO SEE ANY SNOW. THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW AND THE
TIMING TOO SHORT TO EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION...AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO. BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD ACCUMULATE
OVER THE EAST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 30S.

THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS RELATIVELY BORING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A SEASONALLY
COOL AND SUNNY WINTER DAY. WIND COULD BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS THE
RIDGETOPS IN THE MORNING...AND TO THE LEE OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS...
BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.

ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IT CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN MVFR CEILING REMAINED ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT...BUT
DRIER AIR WAS SLOWLY FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. THINK THAT BY MID
AFTERNOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AND VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH A
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CEILING. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO FOR THE MVFR CEILING
THRU THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS COULD BE FOR TOO LONG OF A PERIOD.
WIND SHOULD REMAIN NE TO N INTO THE MID EVENING. THINGS GET MURKY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
SHORT WAVE ALOFT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. DEEP LAYER FORCING LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR
PRECIP PRODUCTION FROM MAINLY A VFR CLOUD DECK. THIS SHOULD BE IN A
LIQUID FORM IF IT HAPPENS BEFORE 06Z WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING
MOVES THRU AND TEMPS HAVE NOT COOLED EXCESSIVELY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IF ANY PRECIP PERSISTS PAST 06Z...IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. HOWEVER...A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AT KCLT BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z FRIDAY. SKY SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND DAYBREAK.
THEREAFTER...WITH A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION...WE
SHOULD HAVE A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THRU THE PERIOD. CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD HAVE BASES AT LEAST 050. WIND WILL COME AROUND TO N AND
NW. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 041753
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1253 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MORNING LIKELY STALLING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL FINAL SLIDE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH SATURDAY.  A COASTAL LOW COULD SPREAD
A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE A
MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT PRECIP HAS BEEN
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST...SO THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE EAST CAN BE
CURTAILED A BIT MORE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKED
UP AGAINST THE EDGE OF THE MTNS ON THE TN BORDER. THE MTNS WERE
GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE. LOW CLOUDS HAD ALMOST MOVED OUT OF THE CLT
METRO AREA. IN BETWEEN...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP
FROM THE S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD HOLD THRU THE AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH POPS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS
THAT COLD ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO
DEVELOP A BIT OF A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING...AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
NEUTRALLY-TILTED SHORT WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS THE MTNS. THIS
SCENARIO IS ESPECIALLY PROMINENT IN THE GFS. TAKING A LOOK AT GEFS
OUTPUT...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE ONLY MEMBER THAT DEVELOPS PRECIP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS ARE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS
ALSO SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO FROM THE CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF. OPTED THEREFORE TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALMOST
TO THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING FOR A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT. PARTIAL
THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO...WITH MOSTLY RAIN IN
THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT).
IF PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS...IT WOULD BE SNOW.
AGAIN...THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY/LOW QPF SITUATION. OTHERWISE...
WITH COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A SOLID 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING ATOP THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE MID/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.  AT THE
SURFACE...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL AXIS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE...HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE MOVE RATHER QUICKLY AS
THE POTENT H5 WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.  A BROAD REGION OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE MARCHING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING ATOP NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SPLIT FLOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO
PHASE INTO A SINGLE FULL LATITUDE TROF...LIKELY MOVING OVER THE
ARKLATEX BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.  THIS BROAD AREA OF H5 HEIGHT
FALLS WILL ADVECT EAST ALL THE WHILE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT
SPREADS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY.  AT THAT
TIME...GUIDANCE FAVORS SIGNIFICANT SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THEN EASTWARD OVER THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SAID SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME MODEL DISCONTINUITY PRESENT AS TO ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK...AND HOW THAT RELATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE WETTER AND SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER INLAND THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...WHICH IF WAS TO VERIFY...WOULD YIELD NOTHING MORE
THAN INCREASED CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...THE FORMER WOULD FAVOR LOW
END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG/EAST OF THE I77 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES BARELY SUPPORTING A RASN MIX AT
PRECIP ONSET.  THUS THE FCST FAVORS SUCH SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A BRIEF SHOT AT A FEW FLURRIES.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT EAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR DRYING AND ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL REMAIN JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD KICKS
OFF ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF ROUND OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETS
UP ATOP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE EJECTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING PACKING A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ALONG ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT.  BEYOND THIS POINT...AND REALLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD/DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WHILE A SERIES OF REINFORCING H5
SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
SPELL A FAIRLY PROLONGED NWFS SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS WITH
SOME OF THE A FORE MENTIONED FRONTAL MOISTURE BREAKING CONTAINMENT
INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT AS WELL AS NE GA LEADING TO A FEW SN
SHOWERS...SPECIFICALLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  ANY NWFS COULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS LEADING TO MODEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
MTNS AS FLOW/MOISTURE ARE CONTINUOUSLY REINFORCED.  ALONG WITH THE
PRECIP...THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER COLD
AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOVE ANY CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 540DM LINE LOOKS TO
PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS JACKSONVILLE FL.  CLOSER TO HOME...GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THE RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AS A CONSENSUS OF HIGHS BY MIDWEEK RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S ON AVERAGE...WITH LOWS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNINGS IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN MVFR CEILING REMAINED ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT...BUT
DRIER AIR WAS SLOWLY FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. THINK THAT BY MID
AFTERNOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AND VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH A
MAINLY MID-LEVEL CEILING. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO FOR THE MVFR CEILING
THRU THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS COULD BE FOR TOO LONG OF A PERIOD.
WIND SHOULD REMAIN NE TO N INTO THE MID EVENING. THINGS GET MURKY
LATER THIS EVENING. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
SHORT WAVE ALOFT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. DEEP LAYER FORCING LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR
PRECIP PRODUCTION FROM MAINLY A VFR CLOUD DECK. THIS SHOULD BE IN A
LIQUID FORM IF IT HAPPENS BEFORE 06Z WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING
MOVES THRU AND TEMPS HAVE NOT COOLED EXCESSIVELY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. IF ANY PRECIP PERSISTS PAST 06Z...IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. HOWEVER...A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AT KCLT BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z FRIDAY. SKY SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND DAYBREAK.
THEREAFTER...WITH A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION...WE
SHOULD HAVE A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THRU THE PERIOD. CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD HAVE BASES AT LEAST 050. WIND WILL COME AROUND TO N AND
NW. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       MED   79%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 041438
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
938 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MORNING LIKELY STALLING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL FINAL SLIDE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH SATURDAY.  A COASTAL LOW COULD SPREAD
A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE A
MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM...STILL NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH OF A CHANGE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT A
SIGNIFICANT CONTRAST IN AIR MASSES REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. THE NC MTNS...AWAY FROM THE TN BORDER...HAVE CLEARED
OUT...WHILE THE PIEDMONT REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH LOW/MID LEVEL OVC.
WILL REMOVE THE REMAINING FOG WITH THE UPDATE...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF METRO CLT INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE WRN EDGE OF PRECIP
CONTINUING TO SKIRT THAT REGION.

THE BOUNDARY IS GOING TO MAINTAIN ITS SLOW DELIBERATE PACE UNTIL THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS ITS PUSH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...ENABLING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATER TODAY. THUS...THE FIRST PROBLEMATIC PART OF THE FORECAST IS
TODAY/S MAX TEMPS...AS GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR BEEN GENERALLY TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JUST AS
AN EXAMPLE...RAW MODEL MAX TEMP FORECASTS AT KAVL RANGE FROM 40 TO
50 TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...THE GUIDANCE THAT IS CLOSER
TO 50 APPEARS LESS WRONG THAN THE COOLER GUIDANCE...AND WE ARE
FORECASTING MAXES FAIRLY CLOSE...OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FLAT LINE OR BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE MTNS
LATER TODAY...AS COLD ADVECTION INTENSIFIES WEST OF THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH POPS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS
THAT COLD ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO
DEVELOP A BIT OF A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING...AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
NEUTRALLY-TILTED SHORT WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS THE MTNS. THIS
SCENARIO IS ESPECIALLY PROMINENT IN THE GFS. TAKING A LOOK AT GEFS
OUTPUT...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE ONLY MEMBER THAT DEVELOPS PRECIP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS ARE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS
ALSO SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO FROM THE CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF. OPTED THEREFORE TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALMOST
TO THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING FOR A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT. PARTIAL
THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO...WITH MOSTLY RAIN IN
THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT).
IF PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS...IT WOULD BE SNOW.
AGAIN...THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY/LOW QPF SITUATION. OTHERWISE...
WITH COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A SOLID 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING ATOP THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE MID/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.  AT THE
SURFACE...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL AXIS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE...HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE MOVE RATHER QUICKLY AS
THE POTENT H5 WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.  A BROAD REGION OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE MARCHING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING ATOP NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SPLIT FLOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO
PHASE INTO A SINGLE FULL LATITUDE TROF...LIKELY MOVING OVER THE
ARKLATEX BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.  THIS BROAD AREA OF H5 HEIGHT
FALLS WILL ADVECT EAST ALL THE WHILE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT
SPREADS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY.  AT THAT
TIME...GUIDANCE FAVORS SIGNIFICANT SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THEN EASTWARD OVER THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SAID SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME MODEL DISCONTINUITY PRESENT AS TO ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK...AND HOW THAT RELATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE WETTER AND SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER INLAND THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...WHICH IF WAS TO VERIFY...WOULD YIELD NOTHING MORE
THAN INCREASED CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...THE FORMER WOULD FAVOR LOW
END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG/EAST OF THE I77 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES BARELY SUPPORTING A RASN MIX AT
PRECIP ONSET.  THUS THE FCST FAVORS SUCH SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A BRIEF SHOT AT A FEW FLURRIES.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT EAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR DRYING AND ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL REMAIN JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD KICKS
OFF ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF ROUND OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETS
UP ATOP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE EJECTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING PACKING A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ALONG ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT.  BEYOND THIS POINT...AND REALLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD/DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WHILE A SERIES OF REINFORCING H5
SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
SPELL A FAIRLY PROLONGED NWFS SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS WITH
SOME OF THE A FORE MENTIONED FRONTAL MOISTURE BREAKING CONTAINMENT
INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT AS WELL AS NE GA LEADING TO A FEW SN
SHOWERS...SPECIFICALLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  ANY NWFS COULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS LEADING TO MODEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
MTNS AS FLOW/MOISTURE ARE CONTINUOUSLY REINFORCED.  ALONG WITH THE
PRECIP...THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER COLD
AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOVE ANY CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 540DM LINE LOOKS TO
PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS JACKSONVILLE FL.  CLOSER TO HOME...GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THE RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AS A CONSENSUS OF HIGHS BY MIDWEEK RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S ON AVERAGE...WITH LOWS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNINGS IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THERE IS A BETTER-THAN-GOOD CHANCE THAT THE CURRENT LOW
LMVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR...AT LEAST PERIODICALLY OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS. IN ADDITION...HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT COULD RESULT
IN SOME REDUCED VISBY...SO 3SM/BR HAS BEEN INCLUDED AS WELL. AFTER
THAT...EXPECT CIGS TO SETTLE IN THE 020-030 RANGE AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. VFR SHOULD
LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
NW BY THE END OF THE MORNING...THEN TURN TOWARD THE N/NE AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CHANCES FOR -RA
CREEP INTO THE FORECAST BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.

ELSEWHERE...THE AIR MASS HAS DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT OVER KAND...AND
ESP AT KAVL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE DRY AIR HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO PUSH INTO
THE FOOTHILLS. KHKY MAY HAVE FINALLY CLEARED THE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR GOOD...BUT WILL NEVERTHELESS ADVERTISE TEMPOS FOR
LIFR THROUGH THE FIRST HOUR. MEANWHILE...VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED AT KGSP...AND LIFR HAS CREPT INTO KGMU. WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A TEMPO FOR LIFR THROUGH 14Z...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
CONSIDERABLY AFTER THAT...AS THE DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHES OVER THESE
SITES. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS COULD BE SEEN AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       MED   73%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 041152
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MORNING LIKELY STALLING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL FINAL SLIDE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH SATURDAY.  A COASTAL LOW COULD SPREAD
A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE A
MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...WITH FRONT CONTINUING ITS EASTWARD STRUGGLE...QUITE
THE CONTRAST IN AIR MASS REGIMES CROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS AND RATHER COOL/DRY AIR (30 DEWPOINT) AT KAVL...AND
LINGERING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH PATCHES OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS IN
THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS TO LIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY
THIS AM...ESP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER EASTWARD.

THE BOUNDARY IS GOING TO MAINTAIN ITS DELIBERATE PACE UNTIL THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS ITS PUSH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...ENABLING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATER TODAY. THUS...THE FIRST PROBLEMATIC PART OF THE FORECAST IS
TODAY/S MAX TEMPS...AS GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR BEEN GENERALLY TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JUST AS
AN EXAMPLE...RAW MODEL MAX TEMP FORECASTS AT KAVL RANGE FROM 40 TO
50 TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...THE GUIDANCE THAT IS CLOSER
TO 50 APPEARS LESS WRONG THAN THE COOLER GUIDANCE...AND WE ARE
FORECASTING MAXES FAIRLY CLOSE...OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FLAT LINE OR BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE MTNS
LATER TODAY...AS COLD ADVECTION INTENSIFIES WEST OF THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH POPS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS
THAT COLD ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO
DEVELOP A BIT OF A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING...AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
NEUTRALLY-TILTED SHORT WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS THE MTNS. THIS
SCENARIO IS ESPECIALLY PROMINENT IN THE GFS. TAKING A LOOK AT GEFS
OUTPUT...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE ONLY MEMBER THAT DEVELOPS PRECIP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS ARE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS
ALSO SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO FROM THE CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF. OPTED THEREFORE TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALMOST
TO THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING FOR A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT. PARTIAL
THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO...WITH MOSTLY RAIN IN
THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT).
IF PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS...IT WOULD BE SNOW.
AGAIN...THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY/LOW QPF SITUATION. OTHERWISE...
WITH COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A SOLID 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING ATOP THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE MID/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.  AT THE
SURFACE...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL AXIS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE...HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE MOVE RATHER QUICKLY AS
THE POTENT H5 WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.  A BROAD REGION OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE MARCHING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING ATOP NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SPLIT FLOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO
PHASE INTO A SINGLE FULL LATITUDE TROF...LIKELY MOVING OVER THE
ARKLATEX BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.  THIS BROAD AREA OF H5 HEIGHT
FALLS WILL ADVECT EAST ALL THE WHILE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT
SPREADS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY.  AT THAT
TIME...GUIDANCE FAVORS SIGNIFICANT SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THEN EASTWARD OVER THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SAID SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME MODEL DISCONTINUITY PRESENT AS TO ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK...AND HOW THAT RELATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE WETTER AND SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER INLAND THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...WHICH IF WAS TO VERIFY...WOULD YIELD NOTHING MORE
THAN INCREASED CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...THE FORMER WOULD FAVOR LOW
END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG/EAST OF THE I77 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES BARELY SUPPORTING A RASN MIX AT
PRECIP ONSET.  THUS THE FCST FAVORS SUCH SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A BRIEF SHOT AT A FEW FLURRIES.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT EAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR DRYING AND ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL REMAIN JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD KICKS
OFF ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF ROUND OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETS
UP ATOP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE EJECTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING PACKING A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ALONG ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT.  BEYOND THIS POINT...AND REALLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD/DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WHILE A SERIES OF REINFORCING H5
SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
SPELL A FAIRLY PROLONGED NWFS SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS WITH
SOME OF THE A FORE MENTIONED FRONTAL MOISTURE BREAKING CONTAINMENT
INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT AS WELL AS NE GA LEADING TO A FEW SN
SHOWERS...SPECIFICALLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  ANY NWFS COULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS LEADING TO MODEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
MTNS AS FLOW/MOISTURE ARE CONTINUOUSLY REINFORCED.  ALONG WITH THE
PRECIP...THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER COLD
AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOVE ANY CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 540DM LINE LOOKS TO
PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS JACKSONVILLE FL.  CLOSER TO HOME...GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THE RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AS A CONSENSUS OF HIGHS BY MIDWEEK RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S ON AVERAGE...WITH LOWS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNINGS IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THERE IS A BETTER-THAN-GOOD CHANCE THAT THE CURRENT LOW
LMVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR...AT LEAST PERIODICALLY OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS. IN ADDITION...HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT COULD RESULT
IN SOME REDUCED VISBY...SO 3SM/BR HAS BEEN INCLUDED AS WELL. AFTER
THAT...EXPECT CIGS TO SETTLE IN THE 020-030 RANGE AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. VFR SHOULD
LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
NW BY THE END OF THE MORNING...THEN TURN TOWARD THE N/NE AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CHANCES FOR -RA
CREEP INTO THE FORECAST BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.

ELSEWHERE...THE AIR MASS HAS DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT OVER KAND...AND
ESP AT KAVL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE DRY AIR HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO PUSH INTO
THE FOOTHILLS. KHKY MAY HAVE FINALLY CLEARED THE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR GOOD...BUT WILL NEVERTHELESS ADVERTISE TEMPOS FOR
LIFR THROUGH THE FIRST HOUR. MEANWHILE...VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED AT KGSP...AND LIFR HAS CREPT INTO KGMU. WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A TEMPO FOR LIFR THROUGH 14Z...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
CONSIDERABLY AFTER THAT...AS THE DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHES OVER THESE
SITES. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS COULD BE SEEN AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       MED   76%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 041152
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MORNING LIKELY STALLING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL FINAL SLIDE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH SATURDAY.  A COASTAL LOW COULD SPREAD
A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE A
MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...WITH FRONT CONTINUING ITS EASTWARD STRUGGLE...QUITE
THE CONTRAST IN AIR MASS REGIMES CROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS AND RATHER COOL/DRY AIR (30 DEWPOINT) AT KAVL...AND
LINGERING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH PATCHES OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS IN
THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS TO LIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY
THIS AM...ESP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER EASTWARD.

THE BOUNDARY IS GOING TO MAINTAIN ITS DELIBERATE PACE UNTIL THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS ITS PUSH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...ENABLING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATER TODAY. THUS...THE FIRST PROBLEMATIC PART OF THE FORECAST IS
TODAY/S MAX TEMPS...AS GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR BEEN GENERALLY TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JUST AS
AN EXAMPLE...RAW MODEL MAX TEMP FORECASTS AT KAVL RANGE FROM 40 TO
50 TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...THE GUIDANCE THAT IS CLOSER
TO 50 APPEARS LESS WRONG THAN THE COOLER GUIDANCE...AND WE ARE
FORECASTING MAXES FAIRLY CLOSE...OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FLAT LINE OR BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE MTNS
LATER TODAY...AS COLD ADVECTION INTENSIFIES WEST OF THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH POPS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS
THAT COLD ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO
DEVELOP A BIT OF A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING...AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
NEUTRALLY-TILTED SHORT WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS THE MTNS. THIS
SCENARIO IS ESPECIALLY PROMINENT IN THE GFS. TAKING A LOOK AT GEFS
OUTPUT...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE ONLY MEMBER THAT DEVELOPS PRECIP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS ARE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS
ALSO SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO FROM THE CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF. OPTED THEREFORE TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALMOST
TO THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING FOR A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT. PARTIAL
THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO...WITH MOSTLY RAIN IN
THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT).
IF PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS...IT WOULD BE SNOW.
AGAIN...THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY/LOW QPF SITUATION. OTHERWISE...
WITH COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A SOLID 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING ATOP THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE MID/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.  AT THE
SURFACE...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL AXIS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE...HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE MOVE RATHER QUICKLY AS
THE POTENT H5 WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.  A BROAD REGION OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE MARCHING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING ATOP NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SPLIT FLOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO
PHASE INTO A SINGLE FULL LATITUDE TROF...LIKELY MOVING OVER THE
ARKLATEX BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.  THIS BROAD AREA OF H5 HEIGHT
FALLS WILL ADVECT EAST ALL THE WHILE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT
SPREADS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY.  AT THAT
TIME...GUIDANCE FAVORS SIGNIFICANT SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THEN EASTWARD OVER THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SAID SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME MODEL DISCONTINUITY PRESENT AS TO ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK...AND HOW THAT RELATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE WETTER AND SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER INLAND THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...WHICH IF WAS TO VERIFY...WOULD YIELD NOTHING MORE
THAN INCREASED CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...THE FORMER WOULD FAVOR LOW
END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG/EAST OF THE I77 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES BARELY SUPPORTING A RASN MIX AT
PRECIP ONSET.  THUS THE FCST FAVORS SUCH SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A BRIEF SHOT AT A FEW FLURRIES.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT EAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR DRYING AND ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL REMAIN JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD KICKS
OFF ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF ROUND OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETS
UP ATOP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE EJECTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING PACKING A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ALONG ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT.  BEYOND THIS POINT...AND REALLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD/DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WHILE A SERIES OF REINFORCING H5
SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
SPELL A FAIRLY PROLONGED NWFS SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS WITH
SOME OF THE A FORE MENTIONED FRONTAL MOISTURE BREAKING CONTAINMENT
INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT AS WELL AS NE GA LEADING TO A FEW SN
SHOWERS...SPECIFICALLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  ANY NWFS COULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS LEADING TO MODEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
MTNS AS FLOW/MOISTURE ARE CONTINUOUSLY REINFORCED.  ALONG WITH THE
PRECIP...THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER COLD
AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOVE ANY CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 540DM LINE LOOKS TO
PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS JACKSONVILLE FL.  CLOSER TO HOME...GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THE RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AS A CONSENSUS OF HIGHS BY MIDWEEK RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S ON AVERAGE...WITH LOWS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNINGS IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THERE IS A BETTER-THAN-GOOD CHANCE THAT THE CURRENT LOW
LMVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR...AT LEAST PERIODICALLY OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS. IN ADDITION...HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT COULD RESULT
IN SOME REDUCED VISBY...SO 3SM/BR HAS BEEN INCLUDED AS WELL. AFTER
THAT...EXPECT CIGS TO SETTLE IN THE 020-030 RANGE AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. VFR SHOULD
LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
NW BY THE END OF THE MORNING...THEN TURN TOWARD THE N/NE AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CHANCES FOR -RA
CREEP INTO THE FORECAST BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.

ELSEWHERE...THE AIR MASS HAS DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT OVER KAND...AND
ESP AT KAVL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE DRY AIR HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO PUSH INTO
THE FOOTHILLS. KHKY MAY HAVE FINALLY CLEARED THE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR GOOD...BUT WILL NEVERTHELESS ADVERTISE TEMPOS FOR
LIFR THROUGH THE FIRST HOUR. MEANWHILE...VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED AT KGSP...AND LIFR HAS CREPT INTO KGMU. WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A TEMPO FOR LIFR THROUGH 14Z...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
CONSIDERABLY AFTER THAT...AS THE DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHES OVER THESE
SITES. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS COULD BE SEEN AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       MED   76%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 041152
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MORNING LIKELY STALLING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL FINAL SLIDE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH SATURDAY.  A COASTAL LOW COULD SPREAD
A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE A
MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...WITH FRONT CONTINUING ITS EASTWARD STRUGGLE...QUITE
THE CONTRAST IN AIR MASS REGIMES CROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS AND RATHER COOL/DRY AIR (30 DEWPOINT) AT KAVL...AND
LINGERING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH PATCHES OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS IN
THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS TO LIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY
THIS AM...ESP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER EASTWARD.

THE BOUNDARY IS GOING TO MAINTAIN ITS DELIBERATE PACE UNTIL THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS ITS PUSH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...ENABLING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATER TODAY. THUS...THE FIRST PROBLEMATIC PART OF THE FORECAST IS
TODAY/S MAX TEMPS...AS GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR BEEN GENERALLY TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JUST AS
AN EXAMPLE...RAW MODEL MAX TEMP FORECASTS AT KAVL RANGE FROM 40 TO
50 TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...THE GUIDANCE THAT IS CLOSER
TO 50 APPEARS LESS WRONG THAN THE COOLER GUIDANCE...AND WE ARE
FORECASTING MAXES FAIRLY CLOSE...OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FLAT LINE OR BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE MTNS
LATER TODAY...AS COLD ADVECTION INTENSIFIES WEST OF THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH POPS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS
THAT COLD ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO
DEVELOP A BIT OF A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING...AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
NEUTRALLY-TILTED SHORT WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS THE MTNS. THIS
SCENARIO IS ESPECIALLY PROMINENT IN THE GFS. TAKING A LOOK AT GEFS
OUTPUT...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE ONLY MEMBER THAT DEVELOPS PRECIP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS ARE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS
ALSO SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO FROM THE CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF. OPTED THEREFORE TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALMOST
TO THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING FOR A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT. PARTIAL
THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO...WITH MOSTLY RAIN IN
THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT).
IF PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS...IT WOULD BE SNOW.
AGAIN...THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY/LOW QPF SITUATION. OTHERWISE...
WITH COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A SOLID 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING ATOP THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE MID/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.  AT THE
SURFACE...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL AXIS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE...HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE MOVE RATHER QUICKLY AS
THE POTENT H5 WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.  A BROAD REGION OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE MARCHING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING ATOP NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SPLIT FLOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO
PHASE INTO A SINGLE FULL LATITUDE TROF...LIKELY MOVING OVER THE
ARKLATEX BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.  THIS BROAD AREA OF H5 HEIGHT
FALLS WILL ADVECT EAST ALL THE WHILE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT
SPREADS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY.  AT THAT
TIME...GUIDANCE FAVORS SIGNIFICANT SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THEN EASTWARD OVER THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SAID SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME MODEL DISCONTINUITY PRESENT AS TO ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK...AND HOW THAT RELATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE WETTER AND SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER INLAND THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...WHICH IF WAS TO VERIFY...WOULD YIELD NOTHING MORE
THAN INCREASED CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...THE FORMER WOULD FAVOR LOW
END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG/EAST OF THE I77 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES BARELY SUPPORTING A RASN MIX AT
PRECIP ONSET.  THUS THE FCST FAVORS SUCH SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A BRIEF SHOT AT A FEW FLURRIES.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT EAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR DRYING AND ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL REMAIN JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD KICKS
OFF ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF ROUND OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETS
UP ATOP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE EJECTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING PACKING A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ALONG ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT.  BEYOND THIS POINT...AND REALLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD/DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WHILE A SERIES OF REINFORCING H5
SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
SPELL A FAIRLY PROLONGED NWFS SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS WITH
SOME OF THE A FORE MENTIONED FRONTAL MOISTURE BREAKING CONTAINMENT
INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT AS WELL AS NE GA LEADING TO A FEW SN
SHOWERS...SPECIFICALLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  ANY NWFS COULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS LEADING TO MODEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
MTNS AS FLOW/MOISTURE ARE CONTINUOUSLY REINFORCED.  ALONG WITH THE
PRECIP...THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER COLD
AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOVE ANY CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 540DM LINE LOOKS TO
PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS JACKSONVILLE FL.  CLOSER TO HOME...GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THE RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AS A CONSENSUS OF HIGHS BY MIDWEEK RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S ON AVERAGE...WITH LOWS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNINGS IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THERE IS A BETTER-THAN-GOOD CHANCE THAT THE CURRENT LOW
LMVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR...AT LEAST PERIODICALLY OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS. IN ADDITION...HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT COULD RESULT
IN SOME REDUCED VISBY...SO 3SM/BR HAS BEEN INCLUDED AS WELL. AFTER
THAT...EXPECT CIGS TO SETTLE IN THE 020-030 RANGE AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING VFR. VFR SHOULD
LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
NW BY THE END OF THE MORNING...THEN TURN TOWARD THE N/NE AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CHANCES FOR -RA
CREEP INTO THE FORECAST BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.

ELSEWHERE...THE AIR MASS HAS DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT OVER KAND...AND
ESP AT KAVL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE DRY AIR HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO PUSH INTO
THE FOOTHILLS. KHKY MAY HAVE FINALLY CLEARED THE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR GOOD...BUT WILL NEVERTHELESS ADVERTISE TEMPOS FOR
LIFR THROUGH THE FIRST HOUR. MEANWHILE...VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED AT KGSP...AND LIFR HAS CREPT INTO KGMU. WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A TEMPO FOR LIFR THROUGH 14Z...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
CONSIDERABLY AFTER THAT...AS THE DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHES OVER THESE
SITES. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS COULD BE SEEN AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       MED   76%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 040842
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MORNING LIKELY STALLING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL FINAL SLIDE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH SATURDAY.  A COASTAL LOW COULD SPREAD
A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE A
MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA...AND CREEPING ALONG TO THE EAST. UNTIL
THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST...LIGHT/VRBL WINDS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN POCKETS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE BOUNDARY IS
GOING TO MAINTAIN ITS DELIBERATE PACE UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS ITS PUSH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...ENABLING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER
TODAY. THUS...THE FIRST PROBLEMATIC PART OF THE FORECAST IS TODAY/S
MAX TEMPS...AS GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR BEEN GENERALLY TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN PUSHING THE COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JUST AS AN
EXAMPLE...RAW MODEL MAX TEMP FORECASTS AT KAVL RANGE FROM 40 TO 50
TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...THE GUIDANCE THAT IS CLOSER TO
50 APPEARS LESS WRONG THAN THE COOLER GUIDANCE...AND WE ARE
FORECASTING MAXES FAIRLY CLOSE...OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FLAT LINE OR BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE MTNS
LATER TODAY...AS COLD ADVECTION INTENSIFIES WEST OF THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH POPS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS
THAT COLD ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO
DEVELOP A BIT OF A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING...AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
NEUTRALLY-TILTED SHORT WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS THE MTNS. THIS
SCENARIO IS ESPECIALLY PROMINENT IN THE GFS. TAKING A LOOK AT GEFS
OUTPUT...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE ONLY MEMBER THAT DEVELOPS PRECIP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS ARE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS
ALSO SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO FROM THE CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF. OPTED THEREFORE TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALMOST
TO THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING FOR A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT. PARTIAL
THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO...WITH MOSTLY RAIN IN
THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT).
IF PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS...IT WOULD BE SNOW.
AGAIN...THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY/LOW QPF SITUATION. OTHERWISE...
WITH COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A SOLID 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING ATOP THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE MID/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.  AT THE
SURFACE...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL AXIS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE...HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE MOVE RATHER QUICKLY AS
THE POTENT H5 WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.  A BROAD REGION OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE MARCHING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING ATOP NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SPLIT FLOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO
PHASE INTO A SINGLE FULL LATITUDE TROF...LIKELY MOVING OVER THE
ARKLATEX BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.  THIS BROAD AREA OF H5 HEIGHT
FALLS WILL ADVECT EAST ALL THE WHILE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT
SPREADS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY.  AT THAT
TIME...GUIDANCE FAVORS SIGNIFICANT SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THEN EASTWARD OVER THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SAID SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME MODEL DISCONTINUITY PRESENT AS TO ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK...AND HOW THAT RELATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE WETTER AND SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER INLAND THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...WHICH IF WAS TO VERIFY...WOULD YIELD NOTHING MORE
THAN INCREASED CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...THE FORMER WOULD FAVOR LOW
END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG/EAST OF THE I77 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES BARELY SUPPORTING A RASN MIX AT
PRECIP ONSET.  THUS THE FCST FAVORS SUCH SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A BRIEF SHOT AT A FEW FLURRIES.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT EAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR DRYING AND ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL REMAIN JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD KICKS
OFF ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF ROUND OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETS
UP ATOP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE EJECTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING PACKING A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ALONG ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT.  BEYOND THIS POINT...AND REALLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD/DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WHILE A SERIES OF REINFORCING H5
SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
SPELL A FAIRLY PROLONGED NWFS SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS WITH
SOME OF THE A FORE MENTIONED FRONTAL MOISTURE BREAKING CONTAINMENT
INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT AS WELL AS NE GA LEADING TO A FEW SN
SHOWERS...SPECIFICALLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  ANY NWFS COULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS LEADING TO MODEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
MTNS AS FLOW/MOISTURE ARE CONTINUOUSLY REINFORCED.  ALONG WITH THE
PRECIP...THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER COLD
AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOVE ANY CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 540DM LINE LOOKS TO
PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS JACKSONVILLE FL.  CLOSER TO HOME...GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THE RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AS A CONSENSUS OF HIGHS BY MIDWEEK RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S ON AVERAGE...WITH LOWS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNINGS IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS SET OF
TAFS...DUE TO A NUMBER OF COMPETING FACTORS. MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE HIGH OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH THE COOLING IS SOMEWHAT OUTPACING THE DRYING...AS
EVIDENCED BY AREAS OF IFR (AND WORSE) CONDITIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS.
MEANWHILE...SW WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-10 KTS...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH LATER...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS
FORMATION IN THE STILL-MOIST AIR MASS. ON THE OTHER HAND...MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...WHICH WOULD
TEND TO PREVENT FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...BUT OUR BEST GUESS IS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND A
RETURN TO AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS AT KCLT BY AROUND 08Z. DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY...JUDICIOUS USE OF TEMPOS HAS BEEN MADE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT MOST TERMINALS BY NO
LATER THAN MID-MORNING...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT KCLT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NE BY LATE MORNING OR SO.

AT KAVL...NW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT THE TERMINAL...WHICH HAS PUSHED
DRIER AIR UP THE VALLEY. THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG OR VERY LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
STRATUS AT THE LOW END OF MVFR IS PROBABLE...AND AT THE HIGH END OF
IFR IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY
NOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   55%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 040842
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MORNING LIKELY STALLING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL FINAL SLIDE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH SATURDAY.  A COASTAL LOW COULD SPREAD
A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE A
MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA...AND CREEPING ALONG TO THE EAST. UNTIL
THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST...LIGHT/VRBL WINDS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN POCKETS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE BOUNDARY IS
GOING TO MAINTAIN ITS DELIBERATE PACE UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS ITS PUSH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...ENABLING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER
TODAY. THUS...THE FIRST PROBLEMATIC PART OF THE FORECAST IS TODAY/S
MAX TEMPS...AS GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR BEEN GENERALLY TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN PUSHING THE COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JUST AS AN
EXAMPLE...RAW MODEL MAX TEMP FORECASTS AT KAVL RANGE FROM 40 TO 50
TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...THE GUIDANCE THAT IS CLOSER TO
50 APPEARS LESS WRONG THAN THE COOLER GUIDANCE...AND WE ARE
FORECASTING MAXES FAIRLY CLOSE...OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FLAT LINE OR BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE MTNS
LATER TODAY...AS COLD ADVECTION INTENSIFIES WEST OF THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH POPS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS
THAT COLD ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO
DEVELOP A BIT OF A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING...AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
NEUTRALLY-TILTED SHORT WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS THE MTNS. THIS
SCENARIO IS ESPECIALLY PROMINENT IN THE GFS. TAKING A LOOK AT GEFS
OUTPUT...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE ONLY MEMBER THAT DEVELOPS PRECIP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS ARE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS
ALSO SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO FROM THE CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF. OPTED THEREFORE TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALMOST
TO THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING FOR A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT. PARTIAL
THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO...WITH MOSTLY RAIN IN
THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT).
IF PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS...IT WOULD BE SNOW.
AGAIN...THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY/LOW QPF SITUATION. OTHERWISE...
WITH COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A SOLID 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING ATOP THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE MID/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.  AT THE
SURFACE...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL AXIS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE...HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE MOVE RATHER QUICKLY AS
THE POTENT H5 WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.  A BROAD REGION OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE MARCHING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING ATOP NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SPLIT FLOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO
PHASE INTO A SINGLE FULL LATITUDE TROF...LIKELY MOVING OVER THE
ARKLATEX BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.  THIS BROAD AREA OF H5 HEIGHT
FALLS WILL ADVECT EAST ALL THE WHILE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT
SPREADS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY.  AT THAT
TIME...GUIDANCE FAVORS SIGNIFICANT SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THEN EASTWARD OVER THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SAID SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME MODEL DISCONTINUITY PRESENT AS TO ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK...AND HOW THAT RELATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE WETTER AND SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER INLAND THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...WHICH IF WAS TO VERIFY...WOULD YIELD NOTHING MORE
THAN INCREASED CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...THE FORMER WOULD FAVOR LOW
END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG/EAST OF THE I77 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES BARELY SUPPORTING A RASN MIX AT
PRECIP ONSET.  THUS THE FCST FAVORS SUCH SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A BRIEF SHOT AT A FEW FLURRIES.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT EAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR DRYING AND ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL REMAIN JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD KICKS
OFF ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF ROUND OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETS
UP ATOP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE EJECTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING PACKING A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ALONG ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT.  BEYOND THIS POINT...AND REALLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD/DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WHILE A SERIES OF REINFORCING H5
SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
SPELL A FAIRLY PROLONGED NWFS SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS WITH
SOME OF THE A FORE MENTIONED FRONTAL MOISTURE BREAKING CONTAINMENT
INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT AS WELL AS NE GA LEADING TO A FEW SN
SHOWERS...SPECIFICALLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  ANY NWFS COULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS LEADING TO MODEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
MTNS AS FLOW/MOISTURE ARE CONTINUOUSLY REINFORCED.  ALONG WITH THE
PRECIP...THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER COLD
AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOVE ANY CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 540DM LINE LOOKS TO
PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS JACKSONVILLE FL.  CLOSER TO HOME...GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THE RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AS A CONSENSUS OF HIGHS BY MIDWEEK RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S ON AVERAGE...WITH LOWS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNINGS IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS SET OF
TAFS...DUE TO A NUMBER OF COMPETING FACTORS. MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE HIGH OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH THE COOLING IS SOMEWHAT OUTPACING THE DRYING...AS
EVIDENCED BY AREAS OF IFR (AND WORSE) CONDITIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS.
MEANWHILE...SW WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-10 KTS...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH LATER...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS
FORMATION IN THE STILL-MOIST AIR MASS. ON THE OTHER HAND...MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...WHICH WOULD
TEND TO PREVENT FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...BUT OUR BEST GUESS IS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND A
RETURN TO AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS AT KCLT BY AROUND 08Z. DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY...JUDICIOUS USE OF TEMPOS HAS BEEN MADE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT MOST TERMINALS BY NO
LATER THAN MID-MORNING...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT KCLT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NE BY LATE MORNING OR SO.

AT KAVL...NW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT THE TERMINAL...WHICH HAS PUSHED
DRIER AIR UP THE VALLEY. THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG OR VERY LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
STRATUS AT THE LOW END OF MVFR IS PROBABLE...AND AT THE HIGH END OF
IFR IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY
NOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   55%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 040842
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MORNING LIKELY STALLING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL FINAL SLIDE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH SATURDAY.  A COASTAL LOW COULD SPREAD
A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE A
MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA...AND CREEPING ALONG TO THE EAST. UNTIL
THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST...LIGHT/VRBL WINDS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN POCKETS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE BOUNDARY IS
GOING TO MAINTAIN ITS DELIBERATE PACE UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS ITS PUSH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...ENABLING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER
TODAY. THUS...THE FIRST PROBLEMATIC PART OF THE FORECAST IS TODAY/S
MAX TEMPS...AS GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR BEEN GENERALLY TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN PUSHING THE COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JUST AS AN
EXAMPLE...RAW MODEL MAX TEMP FORECASTS AT KAVL RANGE FROM 40 TO 50
TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...THE GUIDANCE THAT IS CLOSER TO
50 APPEARS LESS WRONG THAN THE COOLER GUIDANCE...AND WE ARE
FORECASTING MAXES FAIRLY CLOSE...OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FLAT LINE OR BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE MTNS
LATER TODAY...AS COLD ADVECTION INTENSIFIES WEST OF THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH POPS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS
THAT COLD ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO
DEVELOP A BIT OF A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING...AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
NEUTRALLY-TILTED SHORT WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS THE MTNS. THIS
SCENARIO IS ESPECIALLY PROMINENT IN THE GFS. TAKING A LOOK AT GEFS
OUTPUT...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE ONLY MEMBER THAT DEVELOPS PRECIP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS ARE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS
ALSO SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO FROM THE CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF. OPTED THEREFORE TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALMOST
TO THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING FOR A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT. PARTIAL
THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO...WITH MOSTLY RAIN IN
THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT).
IF PRECIP MANAGES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS...IT WOULD BE SNOW.
AGAIN...THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY/LOW QPF SITUATION. OTHERWISE...
WITH COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A SOLID 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING ATOP THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE MID/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.  AT THE
SURFACE...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL AXIS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE...HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE MOVE RATHER QUICKLY AS
THE POTENT H5 WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.  A BROAD REGION OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE MARCHING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING ATOP NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SPLIT FLOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO
PHASE INTO A SINGLE FULL LATITUDE TROF...LIKELY MOVING OVER THE
ARKLATEX BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.  THIS BROAD AREA OF H5 HEIGHT
FALLS WILL ADVECT EAST ALL THE WHILE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT
SPREADS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY.  AT THAT
TIME...GUIDANCE FAVORS SIGNIFICANT SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THEN EASTWARD OVER THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SAID SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME MODEL DISCONTINUITY PRESENT AS TO ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK...AND HOW THAT RELATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE WETTER AND SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER INLAND THAN
THAT OF THE GFS...WHICH IF WAS TO VERIFY...WOULD YIELD NOTHING MORE
THAN INCREASED CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...THE FORMER WOULD FAVOR LOW
END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG/EAST OF THE I77 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES BARELY SUPPORTING A RASN MIX AT
PRECIP ONSET.  THUS THE FCST FAVORS SUCH SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A BRIEF SHOT AT A FEW FLURRIES.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EJECT EAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR DRYING AND ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL REMAIN JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD KICKS
OFF ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF ROUND OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETS
UP ATOP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE EJECTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING PACKING A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ALONG ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT.  BEYOND THIS POINT...AND REALLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD/DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WHILE A SERIES OF REINFORCING H5
SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
SPELL A FAIRLY PROLONGED NWFS SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS WITH
SOME OF THE A FORE MENTIONED FRONTAL MOISTURE BREAKING CONTAINMENT
INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT AS WELL AS NE GA LEADING TO A FEW SN
SHOWERS...SPECIFICALLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  ANY NWFS COULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS LEADING TO MODEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
MTNS AS FLOW/MOISTURE ARE CONTINUOUSLY REINFORCED.  ALONG WITH THE
PRECIP...THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER COLD
AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOVE ANY CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWFA...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 540DM LINE LOOKS TO
PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS JACKSONVILLE FL.  CLOSER TO HOME...GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THE RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AS A CONSENSUS OF HIGHS BY MIDWEEK RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S ON AVERAGE...WITH LOWS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNINGS IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS SET OF
TAFS...DUE TO A NUMBER OF COMPETING FACTORS. MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE HIGH OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH THE COOLING IS SOMEWHAT OUTPACING THE DRYING...AS
EVIDENCED BY AREAS OF IFR (AND WORSE) CONDITIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS.
MEANWHILE...SW WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-10 KTS...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH LATER...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS
FORMATION IN THE STILL-MOIST AIR MASS. ON THE OTHER HAND...MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...WHICH WOULD
TEND TO PREVENT FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...BUT OUR BEST GUESS IS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND A
RETURN TO AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS AT KCLT BY AROUND 08Z. DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY...JUDICIOUS USE OF TEMPOS HAS BEEN MADE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT MOST TERMINALS BY NO
LATER THAN MID-MORNING...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT KCLT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NE BY LATE MORNING OR SO.

AT KAVL...NW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT THE TERMINAL...WHICH HAS PUSHED
DRIER AIR UP THE VALLEY. THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG OR VERY LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
STRATUS AT THE LOW END OF MVFR IS PROBABLE...AND AT THE HIGH END OF
IFR IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY
NOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   55%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 040627
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
127 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE
REGION AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1 AM...A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TIER OF
FORECAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE
TOWARD GRADUALLY DECREASING POPS...WITH LOW CHANCES AT BEST EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
SUCCESS. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN
SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN THE FOOTHILLS...AND THIS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN PARTICULARLY FOG PRONE RURAL AREAS AND MOUNTAIN/RIVER
VALLEYS...FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE OTHER LINGERING CONCERN IN THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE IS THAT COASTAL PLAIN MOISTURE ON THURSDAY COULD WELL SPILL
BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW PASSES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CONCERN THAT THE INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR FROM
THE WEST COULD CATCH UP WITH THIS MOISTURE TO ALLOW MIXED PTYPES TO
FORM...BUT THERE IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
THE COOLER THICKNESSES AND MOISTURE THROUGH THU EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AND UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW CROSSING FL
AND MOVING UP THE GULF STREAM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INLAND OVER GA
AND THE CAROLINAS...BUT THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AT ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

BY MONDAY EVENING THE UPPER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST...RELEGATING PRECIPITATION MAINLY
TO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND MAY SURVIVE
INTO MID WEEK AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUND A SECOND
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS SET OF
TAFS...DUE TO A NUMBER OF COMPETING FACTORS. MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE HIGH OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH THE COOLING IS SOMEWHAT OUTPACING THE DRYING...AS
EVIDENCED BY AREAS OF IFR (AND WORSE) CONDITIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS.
MEANWHILE...SW WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-10 KTS...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH LATER...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS
FORMATION IN THE STILL-MOIST AIR MASS. ON THE OTHER HAND...MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...WHICH WOULD
TEND TO PREVENT FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...BUT OUR BEST GUESS IS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND A
RETURN TO AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS AT KCLT BY AROUND 08Z. DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY...JUDICIOUS USE OF TEMPOS HAS BEEN MADE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT MOST TERMINALS BY NO
LATER THAN MID-MORNING...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT KCLT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NE BY LATE MORNING OR SO.

AT KAVL...NW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT THE TERMINAL...WHICH HAS PUSHED
DRIER AIR UP THE VALLEY. THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG OR VERY LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
STRATUS AT THE LOW END OF MVFR IS PROBABLE...AND AT THE HIGH END OF
IFR IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY
NOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       MED   76%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   65%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   70%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%     MED   62%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 040627
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
127 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE
REGION AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1 AM...A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TIER OF
FORECAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE
TOWARD GRADUALLY DECREASING POPS...WITH LOW CHANCES AT BEST EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
SUCCESS. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN
SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN THE FOOTHILLS...AND THIS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN PARTICULARLY FOG PRONE RURAL AREAS AND MOUNTAIN/RIVER
VALLEYS...FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE OTHER LINGERING CONCERN IN THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE IS THAT COASTAL PLAIN MOISTURE ON THURSDAY COULD WELL SPILL
BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW PASSES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CONCERN THAT THE INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR FROM
THE WEST COULD CATCH UP WITH THIS MOISTURE TO ALLOW MIXED PTYPES TO
FORM...BUT THERE IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
THE COOLER THICKNESSES AND MOISTURE THROUGH THU EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AND UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW CROSSING FL
AND MOVING UP THE GULF STREAM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INLAND OVER GA
AND THE CAROLINAS...BUT THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AT ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

BY MONDAY EVENING THE UPPER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST...RELEGATING PRECIPITATION MAINLY
TO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND MAY SURVIVE
INTO MID WEEK AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUND A SECOND
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS SET OF
TAFS...DUE TO A NUMBER OF COMPETING FACTORS. MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE HIGH OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH THE COOLING IS SOMEWHAT OUTPACING THE DRYING...AS
EVIDENCED BY AREAS OF IFR (AND WORSE) CONDITIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS.
MEANWHILE...SW WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-10 KTS...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH LATER...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS
FORMATION IN THE STILL-MOIST AIR MASS. ON THE OTHER HAND...MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...WHICH WOULD
TEND TO PREVENT FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...BUT OUR BEST GUESS IS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND A
RETURN TO AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS AT KCLT BY AROUND 08Z. DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY...JUDICIOUS USE OF TEMPOS HAS BEEN MADE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT MOST TERMINALS BY NO
LATER THAN MID-MORNING...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT KCLT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NE BY LATE MORNING OR SO.

AT KAVL...NW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT THE TERMINAL...WHICH HAS PUSHED
DRIER AIR UP THE VALLEY. THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG OR VERY LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
STRATUS AT THE LOW END OF MVFR IS PROBABLE...AND AT THE HIGH END OF
IFR IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY
NOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       MED   76%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   65%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   70%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%     MED   62%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 040627
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
127 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE
REGION AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1 AM...A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TIER OF
FORECAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE
TOWARD GRADUALLY DECREASING POPS...WITH LOW CHANCES AT BEST EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
SUCCESS. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN
SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN THE FOOTHILLS...AND THIS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN PARTICULARLY FOG PRONE RURAL AREAS AND MOUNTAIN/RIVER
VALLEYS...FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE OTHER LINGERING CONCERN IN THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE IS THAT COASTAL PLAIN MOISTURE ON THURSDAY COULD WELL SPILL
BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW PASSES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CONCERN THAT THE INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR FROM
THE WEST COULD CATCH UP WITH THIS MOISTURE TO ALLOW MIXED PTYPES TO
FORM...BUT THERE IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
THE COOLER THICKNESSES AND MOISTURE THROUGH THU EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AND UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW CROSSING FL
AND MOVING UP THE GULF STREAM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INLAND OVER GA
AND THE CAROLINAS...BUT THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AT ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

BY MONDAY EVENING THE UPPER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST...RELEGATING PRECIPITATION MAINLY
TO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND MAY SURVIVE
INTO MID WEEK AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUND A SECOND
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS SET OF
TAFS...DUE TO A NUMBER OF COMPETING FACTORS. MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE HIGH OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH THE COOLING IS SOMEWHAT OUTPACING THE DRYING...AS
EVIDENCED BY AREAS OF IFR (AND WORSE) CONDITIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS.
MEANWHILE...SW WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-10 KTS...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH LATER...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS
FORMATION IN THE STILL-MOIST AIR MASS. ON THE OTHER HAND...MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...WHICH WOULD
TEND TO PREVENT FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...BUT OUR BEST GUESS IS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND A
RETURN TO AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS AT KCLT BY AROUND 08Z. DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY...JUDICIOUS USE OF TEMPOS HAS BEEN MADE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT MOST TERMINALS BY NO
LATER THAN MID-MORNING...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT KCLT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NE BY LATE MORNING OR SO.

AT KAVL...NW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT THE TERMINAL...WHICH HAS PUSHED
DRIER AIR UP THE VALLEY. THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG OR VERY LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
STRATUS AT THE LOW END OF MVFR IS PROBABLE...AND AT THE HIGH END OF
IFR IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY
NOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PUSHING OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRIDAY. UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       MED   76%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   65%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   70%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%     MED   62%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 040233
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
933 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE
REGION AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EST...THE PASSING SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP
VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING...AS IT GETS
INCREASINGLY HUNG UP IN THE SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH BACK OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PIEDMONT FRINGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRYING ENSUES FROM THE WEST. SLOW ABATEMENT OF
LINGERING FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE
CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMP TRENDS APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH SLOW
COOLING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE EASTERN HALF.

THE OTHER LINGERING CONCERN IN THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE IS THAT COASTAL PLAIN MOISTURE ON THURSDAY COULD WELL SPILL
BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL SURFACE LOW PASSES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CONCERN THAT THE INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR FROM
THE WEST COULD CATCH UP WITH THIS MOISTURE TO ALLOW MIXED PTYPES TO
FORM...BUT THERE IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
THE COOLER THICKNESSES AND MOISTURE THROUGH THU EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AND UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW CROSSING FL
AND MOVING UP THE GULF STREAM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INLAND OVER GA
AND THE CAROLINAS...BUT THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AT ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

BY MONDAY EVENING THE UPPER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST...RELEGATING PRECIPITATION MAINLY
TO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND MAY SURVIVE
INTO MID WEEK AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUND A SECOND
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE MUCH SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL CREATE A CORRESPONDINGLY SLOWER IMPROVEMENT TREND FOR IFR
AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR LIKELY LINGERING WELL INTO THU MORNING...AND
VFR MORE LIKELY BY THU AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LIGHT. WILL KEEP VISIBILITY MAINLY MVFR GIVEN LIGHT SW MIXING EARLY
AND NW FLOW LATE...BUT IFR VSBY IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS
WELL.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT FOOTHILL LOCATIONS TO
GRADUALLY SCATTERE THROUGH LATE EVENING. VFR WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
FROM THE WEST WITH DRYING OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KHKY. KAVL WILL BE
VFR EARLY...BUT NW FLOW MOISTURE COULD PUSH MVFR CIGS BACK OVER THE
AIRFIELD IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. EXPECT NW FLOW GUSTS TO DEVELOP
AT KAVL OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. SW FLOW AT
THE FOOTHILL TERMINALS WILL TURN NW OVERNIGHT AND N TO NE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       MED   71%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   75%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 032350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. IN THE
FRONTS WAKE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A MOIST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EST...THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN VERY DEEP SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THIS EVENING. THE PASSING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS GETTING INCREASINGLY
HUNG UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS GREATLY SLOWED. WITH WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT HAPPENING
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GA...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL MAY BRUSH THE EASTERN FRINGE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND POPS WILL BE EXTENDED ACCORDINGLY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...SO HEAVY RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT
AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN COULD IMPACT
LOCATIONS SUCH AS UNION COUNTY IN NC IN THE PIEDMONT. THIS SHOULD
NOT WARRANT ANY ADDITIONAL FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT PRECIP RATES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. DRYING AND
A SLOW ABATEMENT OF ANY LINGERING FLOODING IS EXPECTED. TEMP COOLING
TRENDS HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOWED DOWN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...AS HAS
THE DRYING AND LIFTING OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

THE OTHER CONCERN THAT THIS SLOWER DEPARTURE CREATES IS THAT
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY COULD
WELL SPILL WESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH A PASSING SURFACE
LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL CONCERN THAT THE  INTRUSION
OF COOLER AIR FROM THE WEST COULD CATCH UP WITH THIS MOISTURE TO
ALLOW MIXED PTYPES TO FORM. THERE IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT OVERLAPS OF THE COOLER THICKNESSES AND MOISTURE THROUGH
LATE THU...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AND UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW CROSSING FL
AND MOVING UP THE GULF STREAM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INLAND OVER GA
AND THE CAROLINAS...BUT THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AT ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

BY MONDAY EVENING THE UPPER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST...RELEGATING PRECIPITATION MAINLY
TO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND MAY SURVIVE
INTO MID WEEK AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUND A SECOND
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE MUCH SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL CREATE A CORRESPONDINGLY SLOWER IMPROVEMENT TREND FOR IFR
AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NOW FEATURE IFR FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR LIKELY LINGERING WELL INTO THU MORNING
AND VFR MORE LIKELY BY THU AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD
BE LIGHT. WILL KEEP VISIBILITY MAINLY MVFR GIVEN LIGHT SW MIXING
EARLY AND NW FLOW LATE...BUT IFR VSBY IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES AS WELL.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT MOST FOOTHILL LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAINFALL SHOULD PUSH QUICKLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES NEARBY THROUGH 04Z. VFR WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM THE WEST WITH DRYING OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KHKY. KAVL WILL BE VFR EARLY...BUT NW FLOW MOISTURE COULD PUSH MVFR
CIGS BACK OVER THE AIRFIELD IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. EXPECT NW
FLOW GUSTS TO DEVELOP AT KAVL OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. SW FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL TERMINALS WILL TURN NW OVERNIGHT
AND N TO NE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

OUTLOOK...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       MED   79%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  81%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     MED   76%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   79%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  83%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  93%     MED   77%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 032350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. IN THE
FRONTS WAKE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A MOIST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EST...THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN VERY DEEP SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THIS EVENING. THE PASSING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS GETTING INCREASINGLY
HUNG UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS GREATLY SLOWED. WITH WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT HAPPENING
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GA...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL MAY BRUSH THE EASTERN FRINGE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND POPS WILL BE EXTENDED ACCORDINGLY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...SO HEAVY RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT
AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN COULD IMPACT
LOCATIONS SUCH AS UNION COUNTY IN NC IN THE PIEDMONT. THIS SHOULD
NOT WARRANT ANY ADDITIONAL FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT PRECIP RATES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. DRYING AND
A SLOW ABATEMENT OF ANY LINGERING FLOODING IS EXPECTED. TEMP COOLING
TRENDS HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOWED DOWN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...AS HAS
THE DRYING AND LIFTING OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

THE OTHER CONCERN THAT THIS SLOWER DEPARTURE CREATES IS THAT
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY COULD
WELL SPILL WESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH A PASSING SURFACE
LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL CONCERN THAT THE  INTRUSION
OF COOLER AIR FROM THE WEST COULD CATCH UP WITH THIS MOISTURE TO
ALLOW MIXED PTYPES TO FORM. THERE IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT OVERLAPS OF THE COOLER THICKNESSES AND MOISTURE THROUGH
LATE THU...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AND UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW CROSSING FL
AND MOVING UP THE GULF STREAM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INLAND OVER GA
AND THE CAROLINAS...BUT THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AT ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

BY MONDAY EVENING THE UPPER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST...RELEGATING PRECIPITATION MAINLY
TO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND MAY SURVIVE
INTO MID WEEK AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUND A SECOND
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE MUCH SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL CREATE A CORRESPONDINGLY SLOWER IMPROVEMENT TREND FOR IFR
AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NOW FEATURE IFR FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR LIKELY LINGERING WELL INTO THU MORNING
AND VFR MORE LIKELY BY THU AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD
BE LIGHT. WILL KEEP VISIBILITY MAINLY MVFR GIVEN LIGHT SW MIXING
EARLY AND NW FLOW LATE...BUT IFR VSBY IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES AS WELL.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT MOST FOOTHILL LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAINFALL SHOULD PUSH QUICKLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES NEARBY THROUGH 04Z. VFR WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM THE WEST WITH DRYING OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KHKY. KAVL WILL BE VFR EARLY...BUT NW FLOW MOISTURE COULD PUSH MVFR
CIGS BACK OVER THE AIRFIELD IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. EXPECT NW
FLOW GUSTS TO DEVELOP AT KAVL OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. SW FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL TERMINALS WILL TURN NW OVERNIGHT
AND N TO NE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

OUTLOOK...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       MED   79%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  81%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     MED   76%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   79%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  83%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  93%     MED   77%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 032350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. IN THE
FRONTS WAKE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A MOIST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EST...THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN VERY DEEP SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THIS EVENING. THE PASSING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS GETTING INCREASINGLY
HUNG UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS GREATLY SLOWED. WITH WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT HAPPENING
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GA...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL MAY BRUSH THE EASTERN FRINGE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND POPS WILL BE EXTENDED ACCORDINGLY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...SO HEAVY RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT
AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN COULD IMPACT
LOCATIONS SUCH AS UNION COUNTY IN NC IN THE PIEDMONT. THIS SHOULD
NOT WARRANT ANY ADDITIONAL FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT PRECIP RATES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. DRYING AND
A SLOW ABATEMENT OF ANY LINGERING FLOODING IS EXPECTED. TEMP COOLING
TRENDS HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOWED DOWN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...AS HAS
THE DRYING AND LIFTING OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

THE OTHER CONCERN THAT THIS SLOWER DEPARTURE CREATES IS THAT
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY COULD
WELL SPILL WESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH A PASSING SURFACE
LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL CONCERN THAT THE  INTRUSION
OF COOLER AIR FROM THE WEST COULD CATCH UP WITH THIS MOISTURE TO
ALLOW MIXED PTYPES TO FORM. THERE IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT OVERLAPS OF THE COOLER THICKNESSES AND MOISTURE THROUGH
LATE THU...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AND UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW CROSSING FL
AND MOVING UP THE GULF STREAM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INLAND OVER GA
AND THE CAROLINAS...BUT THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AT ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

BY MONDAY EVENING THE UPPER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST...RELEGATING PRECIPITATION MAINLY
TO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND MAY SURVIVE
INTO MID WEEK AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUND A SECOND
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE MUCH SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL CREATE A CORRESPONDINGLY SLOWER IMPROVEMENT TREND FOR IFR
AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NOW FEATURE IFR FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR LIKELY LINGERING WELL INTO THU MORNING
AND VFR MORE LIKELY BY THU AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD
BE LIGHT. WILL KEEP VISIBILITY MAINLY MVFR GIVEN LIGHT SW MIXING
EARLY AND NW FLOW LATE...BUT IFR VSBY IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES AS WELL.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT MOST FOOTHILL LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAINFALL SHOULD PUSH QUICKLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES NEARBY THROUGH 04Z. VFR WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM THE WEST WITH DRYING OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KHKY. KAVL WILL BE VFR EARLY...BUT NW FLOW MOISTURE COULD PUSH MVFR
CIGS BACK OVER THE AIRFIELD IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. EXPECT NW
FLOW GUSTS TO DEVELOP AT KAVL OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. SW FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL TERMINALS WILL TURN NW OVERNIGHT
AND N TO NE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

OUTLOOK...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       MED   79%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  81%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     MED   76%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   79%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  83%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  93%     MED   77%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 031951
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. IN THE
FRONTS WAKE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A MOIST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS
RUNNING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LATEST RADAR
IMAGES SHOWS THE LEADING BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH A TWO THE THREE COUNTY WIDE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE BAND. RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THEREFORE...NO NEW FLOODING
IS EXPECTED...I WILL REMOVE THE FLASH FLOODING WATCH WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PRESS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW OR
BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM
INDICATES THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT...DRIVEN WESTWARD BY PASSING FRONTAL WAVES. HOWEVER...CAMS
INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. I WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS ALONG THE EASTERN CWA...CHC POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF UNION AND CHESTER COUNTIES. LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50S EAST. FOR
THURSDAY...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE DAY LIGHT HOURS. SKY COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE WITHIN THE 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
UPPER 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AND UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW CROSSING FL
AND MOVING UP THE GULF STREAM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INLAND OVER GA
AND THE CAROLINAS...BUT THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AT ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

BY MONDAY EVENING THE UPPER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST...RELEGATING PRECIPITATION MAINLY
TO THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND MAY SURVIVE
INTO MID WEEK AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUND A SECOND
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 1 PM...A PRE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WAS
PUSHING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AREAS...WITH A STRONG BAND
ALONG AND EAST OF I-77. FOR THE 18Z TAFS...I WILL REMOVE THE MENTION
OF TSRA...KEEPING SHRA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC AS THE BAND PASSES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
FAVOR MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE MID EVENING. WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE
NW LATE THIS EVENING AT KAVL...EAST OF THE MTNS VEERING NW LATE
TONIGHT TO AROUND DAWN THURSDAY. EAST OF THE MTNS...CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER KAVL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING VFR BY MID
DAY.

OUTLOOK...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     MED   67%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     MED   68%     MED   79%
KHKY       MED   65%     MED   68%     MED   70%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     MED   76%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 031827
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
127 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE FRONTS
WAKE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM...A PRE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AREAS...WITH A STRONG BAND ALONG AND EAST OF
I-77. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REDUCE TSRA MENTION...AND
DECREASE POPS OVER THE WESTERN NC MTNS. WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
COMING TO A CLOSE...WATER RUNOFF CONTINUES.

AS OF 1105 AM....A LINE OF STRONG STORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG HWY 321
AND ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR OF SC/GA. THIS LINE HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF MTNS.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY HAVE BEEN PRIMED BY THE
RECENT MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...DUAL POL RADAR CONTINUES
TO INDICATE 1 HR RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. BASED ON THE LINE
HISTORY AND RECENT TRENDS I HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...A HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE...GUSTY WINDS ARE
CERTAIN. HOWEVER...LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

AS OF 655 AM...FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH
PLENTY OF UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP AHEAD OF IT. CURRENT TRENDS
OR MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST...SO ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.

SOME RELATIVELY HEALTHY CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA
ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF (BARELY) POSITIVE SBCAPE. THE LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS CAPE AXIS WILL WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER AS
THE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES EAST...WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN AIR MASS
THAT IS COOLER OWING TO RESIDUAL COLD POOL AND PRECEDING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...A PROMINENT WARM FRONT/CAD BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR...WHERE SRH IS BEING
ENHANCED ABOVE AND BEYOND THE ALREADY-IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENTAL SRH.
SO THE SITUATION WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KTS
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA...CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD MIX DOWN
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR INTO THE MTN VALLEYS AS THEY TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR PORTION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OF EQUAL CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...IN LIGHT OF VIRTUALLY
OFF-THE-CHART PWATS...GOOD S/SE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5
KFT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES
LOCALLY. UPSLOPE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES TO COME...AND
AS MUCH AS 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT
IN NC. CONVECTION ALSO ADDS A BIT OF A WILD CARD TO THE SCENARIO...
SO OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BLUE RIDGE IN
NC...FROM TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY NORTHEAST TO AVERY/CALDWELL MTNS.

THE FRONTAL BAND IS MOVING EAST WITH A BIT MORE MOMENTUM THAN
ADVERTISED BY 00Z GUIDANCE. IN FACT...IT WILL LIKELY BE RAINING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THE
LATEST MESOSCALE/CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL OUTPUT ACTUALLY BLAST THE
FRONTAL BAND THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING IT EAST OF I-77 BY 00Z. THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST...BUT IT DOES CALL INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH
HEATING/BUOYANCY WILL BE REALIZED LATER TODAY...DESPITE NAM/GFS
DEPICTION OF AROUND 500 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. PER THE NAM AND THE GFS...THE SEVERE HAZARDS IN
ENVIRONMENTS WITH REDUCED BUOYANCY (SHERB) EXPERIMENTAL PARAMETER IS
AT NEARLY THE OPTIMAL VALUE FOR IDENTIFYING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. INDEED...IF WE ARE ABLE TO
REALIZE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF SHEAR...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL EXIST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS/ DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FLUX AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR SUCH WILL BE EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...FROM LATE MORNING
ON.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL LOCALES RECEIVE A 100 POP FOR TODAY... WITH
POPS RAMPING DOWN SOMEWHAT QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM IS SLOWER
WITH MOVING THE PRECIP EAST THIS EVENING THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS...AS IT TENDS TO DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...QUITE A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS. BUT
AGAIN EVEN THE 06Z NAM IS BEHIND THE CURVE IN BEING MUCH TOO SLOW TO
MOVE THE FRONTAL BAND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A NEARLY FULL
LATITUDE UPPER TROF SLIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE
BROAD/COOL HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
CLOSER TO HOME...AN OLD COLD FRONTAL AXIS STALLED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS SHOWERS AS MODELS FAVOR A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM SAID ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST
OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
SOUTH/EAST OF I85/I77 RESPECTIVELY.

BEYOND THAT...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROF AXIS AND EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING EFFECTIVELY PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT OUT TO
SEA.  AS A RESULT...THE FCST WILL DRY OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
INTRUDES AT THE SURFACE BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A REGION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...POTENTIALLY
SETTING UP AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IS HAD BTW THE OP MODELS AND ENS MEANS WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXT PERIOD.
HEMISPHERIC CHARTS SHOW A TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN ATL
WITH LITTLE MERIDIONAL BLOCKING POTENTIAL...THUS EXPECT PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SE/RN CONUS.

FLAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SAT WITH WEAK AND DRY SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING OFF THE ATL COAST. CLOUD COVER INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DIFL FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A DIGGING
S/W. SO...WILL EXPECT NOMINAL WARMING WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SAT NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY SUN.
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF...THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOSELY WRAPPED PRECIP AND TRACK FAR ENUF EAST FOR LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF POP CONCERNS FOR THE FA. THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE
ERN ZONES AS WE NEAR THE EVENT AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT A -SN
OR A MIXED P/TYPE SITUATION SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE NEXT S/W
DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF MON NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE REINFORCING CP AIRMASS IDEA AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP BEGINNING ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE MON INTO TUE. WITH STRONG DYNO OMEGA CROSSING AND JUST ENUF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BREAK HIGH TERRAIN
CONTAINMENT INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT. TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
ACCUMS...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AND LOW END OUTSIDE THE
MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 1 PM...A PRE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WAS
PUSHING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AREAS...WITH A STRONG BAND
ALONG AND EAST OF I-77. FOR THE 18Z TAFS...I WILL REMOVE THE MENTION
OF TSRA...KEEPING SHRA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC AS THE BAND PASSES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
FAVOR MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE MID EVENING. WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE
NW LATE THIS EVENING AT KAVL...EAST OF THE MTNS VEERING NW LATE
TONIGHT TO AROUND DAWN THURSDAY. EAST OF THE MTNS...CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER KAVL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING VFR BY MID
DAY.

OUTLOOK...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH  93%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     HIGH  91%     MED   69%     MED   75%
KHKY       MED   65%     MED   64%     MED   74%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     MED   77%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-049-050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ008-009-
     013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 031827
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
127 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE FRONTS
WAKE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM...A PRE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AREAS...WITH A STRONG BAND ALONG AND EAST OF
I-77. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REDUCE TSRA MENTION...AND
DECREASE POPS OVER THE WESTERN NC MTNS. WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
COMING TO A CLOSE...WATER RUNOFF CONTINUES.

AS OF 1105 AM....A LINE OF STRONG STORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG HWY 321
AND ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR OF SC/GA. THIS LINE HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF MTNS.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY HAVE BEEN PRIMED BY THE
RECENT MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...DUAL POL RADAR CONTINUES
TO INDICATE 1 HR RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. BASED ON THE LINE
HISTORY AND RECENT TRENDS I HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...A HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE...GUSTY WINDS ARE
CERTAIN. HOWEVER...LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

AS OF 655 AM...FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH
PLENTY OF UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP AHEAD OF IT. CURRENT TRENDS
OR MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST...SO ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.

SOME RELATIVELY HEALTHY CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA
ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF (BARELY) POSITIVE SBCAPE. THE LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS CAPE AXIS WILL WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER AS
THE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES EAST...WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN AIR MASS
THAT IS COOLER OWING TO RESIDUAL COLD POOL AND PRECEDING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...A PROMINENT WARM FRONT/CAD BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR...WHERE SRH IS BEING
ENHANCED ABOVE AND BEYOND THE ALREADY-IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENTAL SRH.
SO THE SITUATION WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KTS
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA...CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD MIX DOWN
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR INTO THE MTN VALLEYS AS THEY TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR PORTION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OF EQUAL CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...IN LIGHT OF VIRTUALLY
OFF-THE-CHART PWATS...GOOD S/SE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5
KFT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES
LOCALLY. UPSLOPE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES TO COME...AND
AS MUCH AS 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT
IN NC. CONVECTION ALSO ADDS A BIT OF A WILD CARD TO THE SCENARIO...
SO OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BLUE RIDGE IN
NC...FROM TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY NORTHEAST TO AVERY/CALDWELL MTNS.

THE FRONTAL BAND IS MOVING EAST WITH A BIT MORE MOMENTUM THAN
ADVERTISED BY 00Z GUIDANCE. IN FACT...IT WILL LIKELY BE RAINING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THE
LATEST MESOSCALE/CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL OUTPUT ACTUALLY BLAST THE
FRONTAL BAND THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING IT EAST OF I-77 BY 00Z. THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST...BUT IT DOES CALL INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH
HEATING/BUOYANCY WILL BE REALIZED LATER TODAY...DESPITE NAM/GFS
DEPICTION OF AROUND 500 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. PER THE NAM AND THE GFS...THE SEVERE HAZARDS IN
ENVIRONMENTS WITH REDUCED BUOYANCY (SHERB) EXPERIMENTAL PARAMETER IS
AT NEARLY THE OPTIMAL VALUE FOR IDENTIFYING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. INDEED...IF WE ARE ABLE TO
REALIZE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF SHEAR...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL EXIST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS/ DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FLUX AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR SUCH WILL BE EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...FROM LATE MORNING
ON.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL LOCALES RECEIVE A 100 POP FOR TODAY... WITH
POPS RAMPING DOWN SOMEWHAT QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM IS SLOWER
WITH MOVING THE PRECIP EAST THIS EVENING THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS...AS IT TENDS TO DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...QUITE A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS. BUT
AGAIN EVEN THE 06Z NAM IS BEHIND THE CURVE IN BEING MUCH TOO SLOW TO
MOVE THE FRONTAL BAND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A NEARLY FULL
LATITUDE UPPER TROF SLIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE
BROAD/COOL HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
CLOSER TO HOME...AN OLD COLD FRONTAL AXIS STALLED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS SHOWERS AS MODELS FAVOR A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM SAID ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST
OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
SOUTH/EAST OF I85/I77 RESPECTIVELY.

BEYOND THAT...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROF AXIS AND EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING EFFECTIVELY PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT OUT TO
SEA.  AS A RESULT...THE FCST WILL DRY OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
INTRUDES AT THE SURFACE BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A REGION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...POTENTIALLY
SETTING UP AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IS HAD BTW THE OP MODELS AND ENS MEANS WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXT PERIOD.
HEMISPHERIC CHARTS SHOW A TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN ATL
WITH LITTLE MERIDIONAL BLOCKING POTENTIAL...THUS EXPECT PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SE/RN CONUS.

FLAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SAT WITH WEAK AND DRY SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING OFF THE ATL COAST. CLOUD COVER INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DIFL FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A DIGGING
S/W. SO...WILL EXPECT NOMINAL WARMING WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SAT NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY SUN.
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF...THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOSELY WRAPPED PRECIP AND TRACK FAR ENUF EAST FOR LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF POP CONCERNS FOR THE FA. THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE
ERN ZONES AS WE NEAR THE EVENT AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT A -SN
OR A MIXED P/TYPE SITUATION SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE NEXT S/W
DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF MON NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE REINFORCING CP AIRMASS IDEA AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP BEGINNING ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE MON INTO TUE. WITH STRONG DYNO OMEGA CROSSING AND JUST ENUF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BREAK HIGH TERRAIN
CONTAINMENT INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT. TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
ACCUMS...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AND LOW END OUTSIDE THE
MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 1 PM...A PRE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WAS
PUSHING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AREAS...WITH A STRONG BAND
ALONG AND EAST OF I-77. FOR THE 18Z TAFS...I WILL REMOVE THE MENTION
OF TSRA...KEEPING SHRA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC AS THE BAND PASSES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
FAVOR MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE MID EVENING. WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE
NW LATE THIS EVENING AT KAVL...EAST OF THE MTNS VEERING NW LATE
TONIGHT TO AROUND DAWN THURSDAY. EAST OF THE MTNS...CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER KAVL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING VFR BY MID
DAY.

OUTLOOK...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH  93%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     HIGH  91%     MED   69%     MED   75%
KHKY       MED   65%     MED   64%     MED   74%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     MED   77%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-049-050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ008-009-
     013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 031827
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
127 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE FRONTS
WAKE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM...A PRE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AREAS...WITH A STRONG BAND ALONG AND EAST OF
I-77. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REDUCE TSRA MENTION...AND
DECREASE POPS OVER THE WESTERN NC MTNS. WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
COMING TO A CLOSE...WATER RUNOFF CONTINUES.

AS OF 1105 AM....A LINE OF STRONG STORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG HWY 321
AND ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR OF SC/GA. THIS LINE HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF MTNS.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY HAVE BEEN PRIMED BY THE
RECENT MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...DUAL POL RADAR CONTINUES
TO INDICATE 1 HR RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. BASED ON THE LINE
HISTORY AND RECENT TRENDS I HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...A HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE...GUSTY WINDS ARE
CERTAIN. HOWEVER...LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

AS OF 655 AM...FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH
PLENTY OF UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP AHEAD OF IT. CURRENT TRENDS
OR MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST...SO ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.

SOME RELATIVELY HEALTHY CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA
ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF (BARELY) POSITIVE SBCAPE. THE LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS CAPE AXIS WILL WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER AS
THE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES EAST...WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN AIR MASS
THAT IS COOLER OWING TO RESIDUAL COLD POOL AND PRECEDING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...A PROMINENT WARM FRONT/CAD BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR...WHERE SRH IS BEING
ENHANCED ABOVE AND BEYOND THE ALREADY-IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENTAL SRH.
SO THE SITUATION WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KTS
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA...CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD MIX DOWN
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR INTO THE MTN VALLEYS AS THEY TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR PORTION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OF EQUAL CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...IN LIGHT OF VIRTUALLY
OFF-THE-CHART PWATS...GOOD S/SE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5
KFT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES
LOCALLY. UPSLOPE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES TO COME...AND
AS MUCH AS 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT
IN NC. CONVECTION ALSO ADDS A BIT OF A WILD CARD TO THE SCENARIO...
SO OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BLUE RIDGE IN
NC...FROM TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY NORTHEAST TO AVERY/CALDWELL MTNS.

THE FRONTAL BAND IS MOVING EAST WITH A BIT MORE MOMENTUM THAN
ADVERTISED BY 00Z GUIDANCE. IN FACT...IT WILL LIKELY BE RAINING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THE
LATEST MESOSCALE/CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL OUTPUT ACTUALLY BLAST THE
FRONTAL BAND THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING IT EAST OF I-77 BY 00Z. THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST...BUT IT DOES CALL INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH
HEATING/BUOYANCY WILL BE REALIZED LATER TODAY...DESPITE NAM/GFS
DEPICTION OF AROUND 500 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. PER THE NAM AND THE GFS...THE SEVERE HAZARDS IN
ENVIRONMENTS WITH REDUCED BUOYANCY (SHERB) EXPERIMENTAL PARAMETER IS
AT NEARLY THE OPTIMAL VALUE FOR IDENTIFYING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. INDEED...IF WE ARE ABLE TO
REALIZE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF SHEAR...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL EXIST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS/ DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FLUX AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR SUCH WILL BE EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...FROM LATE MORNING
ON.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL LOCALES RECEIVE A 100 POP FOR TODAY... WITH
POPS RAMPING DOWN SOMEWHAT QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM IS SLOWER
WITH MOVING THE PRECIP EAST THIS EVENING THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS...AS IT TENDS TO DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...QUITE A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS. BUT
AGAIN EVEN THE 06Z NAM IS BEHIND THE CURVE IN BEING MUCH TOO SLOW TO
MOVE THE FRONTAL BAND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A NEARLY FULL
LATITUDE UPPER TROF SLIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE
BROAD/COOL HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
CLOSER TO HOME...AN OLD COLD FRONTAL AXIS STALLED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS SHOWERS AS MODELS FAVOR A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM SAID ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST
OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
SOUTH/EAST OF I85/I77 RESPECTIVELY.

BEYOND THAT...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROF AXIS AND EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING EFFECTIVELY PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT OUT TO
SEA.  AS A RESULT...THE FCST WILL DRY OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
INTRUDES AT THE SURFACE BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A REGION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...POTENTIALLY
SETTING UP AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IS HAD BTW THE OP MODELS AND ENS MEANS WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXT PERIOD.
HEMISPHERIC CHARTS SHOW A TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN ATL
WITH LITTLE MERIDIONAL BLOCKING POTENTIAL...THUS EXPECT PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SE/RN CONUS.

FLAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SAT WITH WEAK AND DRY SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING OFF THE ATL COAST. CLOUD COVER INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DIFL FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A DIGGING
S/W. SO...WILL EXPECT NOMINAL WARMING WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SAT NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY SUN.
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF...THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOSELY WRAPPED PRECIP AND TRACK FAR ENUF EAST FOR LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF POP CONCERNS FOR THE FA. THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE
ERN ZONES AS WE NEAR THE EVENT AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT A -SN
OR A MIXED P/TYPE SITUATION SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE NEXT S/W
DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF MON NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE REINFORCING CP AIRMASS IDEA AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP BEGINNING ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE MON INTO TUE. WITH STRONG DYNO OMEGA CROSSING AND JUST ENUF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BREAK HIGH TERRAIN
CONTAINMENT INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT. TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
ACCUMS...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AND LOW END OUTSIDE THE
MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 1 PM...A PRE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WAS
PUSHING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AREAS...WITH A STRONG BAND
ALONG AND EAST OF I-77. FOR THE 18Z TAFS...I WILL REMOVE THE MENTION
OF TSRA...KEEPING SHRA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC AS THE BAND PASSES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
FAVOR MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE MID EVENING. WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE
NW LATE THIS EVENING AT KAVL...EAST OF THE MTNS VEERING NW LATE
TONIGHT TO AROUND DAWN THURSDAY. EAST OF THE MTNS...CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER KAVL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING VFR BY MID
DAY.

OUTLOOK...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH  93%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     HIGH  91%     MED   69%     MED   75%
KHKY       MED   65%     MED   64%     MED   74%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     MED   77%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-049-050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ008-009-
     013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 031613
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1113 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE FRONTS
WAKE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM....A LINE OF STRONG STORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG HWY 321
AND ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR OF SC/GA. THIS LINE HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF MTNS.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY HAVE BEEN PRIMED BY THE
RECENT MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...DUAL POL RADAR CONTINUES
TO INDICATE 1 HR RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. BASED ON THE LINE
HISTORY AND RECENT TRENDS I HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...A HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE...GUSTY WINDS ARE
CERTAIN. HOWEVER...LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

AS OF 655 AM...FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH
PLENTY OF UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP AHEAD OF IT. CURRENT TRENDS
OR MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST...SO ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.

SOME RELATIVELY HEALTHY CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA
ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF (BARELY) POSITIVE SBCAPE. THE LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS CAPE AXIS WILL WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER AS
THE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES EAST...WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN AIR MASS
THAT IS COOLER OWING TO RESIDUAL COLD POOL AND PRECEDING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...A PROMINENT WARM FRONT/CAD BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR...WHERE SRH IS BEING
ENHANCED ABOVE AND BEYOND THE ALREADY-IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENTAL SRH.
SO THE SITUATION WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KTS
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA...CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD MIX DOWN
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR INTO THE MTN VALLEYS AS THEY TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR PORTION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OF EQUAL CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...IN LIGHT OF VIRTUALLY
OFF-THE-CHART PWATS...GOOD S/SE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5
KFT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES
LOCALLY. UPSLOPE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES TO COME...AND
AS MUCH AS 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT
IN NC. CONVECTION ALSO ADDS A BIT OF A WILD CARD TO THE SCENARIO...
SO OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BLUE RIDGE IN
NC...FROM TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY NORTHEAST TO AVERY/CALDWELL MTNS.

THE FRONTAL BAND IS MOVING EAST WITH A BIT MORE MOMENTUM THAN
ADVERTISED BY 00Z GUIDANCE. IN FACT...IT WILL LIKELY BE RAINING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THE
LATEST MESOSCALE/CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL OUTPUT ACTUALLY BLAST THE
FRONTAL BAND THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING IT EAST OF I-77 BY 00Z. THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST...BUT IT DOES CALL INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH
HEATING/BUOYANCY WILL BE REALIZED LATER TODAY...DESPITE NAM/GFS
DEPICTION OF AROUND 500 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. PER THE NAM AND THE GFS...THE SEVERE HAZARDS IN
ENVIRONMENTS WITH REDUCED BUOYANCY (SHERB) EXPERIMENTAL PARAMETER IS
AT NEARLY THE OPTIMAL VALUE FOR IDENTIFYING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. INDEED...IF WE ARE ABLE TO
REALIZE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF SHEAR...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL EXIST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS/ DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FLUX AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR SUCH WILL BE EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...FROM LATE MORNING
ON.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL LOCALES RECEIVE A 100 POP FOR TODAY... WITH
POPS RAMPING DOWN SOMEWHAT QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM IS SLOWER
WITH MOVING THE PRECIP EAST THIS EVENING THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS...AS IT TENDS TO DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...QUITE A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS. BUT
AGAIN EVEN THE 06Z NAM IS BEHIND THE CURVE IN BEING MUCH TOO SLOW TO
MOVE THE FRONTAL BAND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A NEARLY FULL
LATITUDE UPPER TROF SLIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE
BROAD/COOL HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
CLOSER TO HOME...AN OLD COLD FRONTAL AXIS STALLED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS SHOWERS AS MODELS FAVOR A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM SAID ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST
OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
SOUTH/EAST OF I85/I77 RESPECTIVELY.

BEYOND THAT...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROF AXIS AND EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING EFFECTIVELY PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT OUT TO
SEA.  AS A RESULT...THE FCST WILL DRY OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
INTRUDES AT THE SURFACE BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A REGION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...POTENTIALLY
SETTING UP AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IS HAD BTW THE OP MODELS AND ENS MEANS WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXT PERIOD.
HEMISPHERIC CHARTS SHOW A TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN ATL
WITH LITTLE MERIDIONAL BLOCKING POTENTIAL...THUS EXPECT PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SE/RN CONUS.

FLAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SAT WITH WEAK AND DRY SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING OFF THE ATL COAST. CLOUD COVER INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DIFL FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A DIGGING
S/W. SO...WILL EXPECT NOMINAL WARMING WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SAT NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY SUN.
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF...THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOSELY WRAPPED PRECIP AND TRACK FAR ENUF EAST FOR LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF POP CONCERNS FOR THE FA. THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE
ERN ZONES AS WE NEAR THE EVENT AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT A -SN
OR A MIXED P/TYPE SITUATION SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE NEXT S/W
DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF MON NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE REINFORCING CP AIRMASS IDEA AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP BEGINNING ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE MON INTO TUE. WITH STRONG DYNO OMEGA CROSSING AND JUST ENUF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BREAK HIGH TERRAIN
CONTAINMENT INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT. TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
ACCUMS...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AND LOW END OUTSIDE THE
MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...
AND TEMPOS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES (EXCEPT KHKY
WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE)...THIS MORNING AT THE UPSTATE SC
TERMINALS AND KAVL...AND FROM 16Z-20Z AT KCLT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
S/SE AT 10-15 KTS...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
SOME WESTERLY GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IFR OR LOW MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AM...WITH VISBY FALLING
TO 2-3SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL
TURN TO LIGHT NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON ADVERTISING THIS
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     LOW   50%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%
KHKY       HIGH  93%     LOW   50%     MED   72%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   64%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-049-050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ008-009-
     013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 031613
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1113 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE FRONTS
WAKE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM....A LINE OF STRONG STORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG HWY 321
AND ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR OF SC/GA. THIS LINE HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF MTNS.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY HAVE BEEN PRIMED BY THE
RECENT MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...DUAL POL RADAR CONTINUES
TO INDICATE 1 HR RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. BASED ON THE LINE
HISTORY AND RECENT TRENDS I HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...A HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE...GUSTY WINDS ARE
CERTAIN. HOWEVER...LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

AS OF 655 AM...FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH
PLENTY OF UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP AHEAD OF IT. CURRENT TRENDS
OR MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST...SO ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.

SOME RELATIVELY HEALTHY CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA
ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF (BARELY) POSITIVE SBCAPE. THE LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS CAPE AXIS WILL WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER AS
THE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES EAST...WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN AIR MASS
THAT IS COOLER OWING TO RESIDUAL COLD POOL AND PRECEDING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...A PROMINENT WARM FRONT/CAD BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR...WHERE SRH IS BEING
ENHANCED ABOVE AND BEYOND THE ALREADY-IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENTAL SRH.
SO THE SITUATION WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KTS
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA...CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD MIX DOWN
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR INTO THE MTN VALLEYS AS THEY TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR PORTION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OF EQUAL CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...IN LIGHT OF VIRTUALLY
OFF-THE-CHART PWATS...GOOD S/SE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5
KFT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES
LOCALLY. UPSLOPE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES TO COME...AND
AS MUCH AS 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT
IN NC. CONVECTION ALSO ADDS A BIT OF A WILD CARD TO THE SCENARIO...
SO OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BLUE RIDGE IN
NC...FROM TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY NORTHEAST TO AVERY/CALDWELL MTNS.

THE FRONTAL BAND IS MOVING EAST WITH A BIT MORE MOMENTUM THAN
ADVERTISED BY 00Z GUIDANCE. IN FACT...IT WILL LIKELY BE RAINING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THE
LATEST MESOSCALE/CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL OUTPUT ACTUALLY BLAST THE
FRONTAL BAND THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING IT EAST OF I-77 BY 00Z. THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST...BUT IT DOES CALL INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH
HEATING/BUOYANCY WILL BE REALIZED LATER TODAY...DESPITE NAM/GFS
DEPICTION OF AROUND 500 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. PER THE NAM AND THE GFS...THE SEVERE HAZARDS IN
ENVIRONMENTS WITH REDUCED BUOYANCY (SHERB) EXPERIMENTAL PARAMETER IS
AT NEARLY THE OPTIMAL VALUE FOR IDENTIFYING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. INDEED...IF WE ARE ABLE TO
REALIZE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF SHEAR...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL EXIST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS/ DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FLUX AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR SUCH WILL BE EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...FROM LATE MORNING
ON.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL LOCALES RECEIVE A 100 POP FOR TODAY... WITH
POPS RAMPING DOWN SOMEWHAT QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM IS SLOWER
WITH MOVING THE PRECIP EAST THIS EVENING THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS...AS IT TENDS TO DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...QUITE A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS. BUT
AGAIN EVEN THE 06Z NAM IS BEHIND THE CURVE IN BEING MUCH TOO SLOW TO
MOVE THE FRONTAL BAND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A NEARLY FULL
LATITUDE UPPER TROF SLIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE
BROAD/COOL HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
CLOSER TO HOME...AN OLD COLD FRONTAL AXIS STALLED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS SHOWERS AS MODELS FAVOR A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM SAID ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST
OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
SOUTH/EAST OF I85/I77 RESPECTIVELY.

BEYOND THAT...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROF AXIS AND EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING EFFECTIVELY PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT OUT TO
SEA.  AS A RESULT...THE FCST WILL DRY OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
INTRUDES AT THE SURFACE BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A REGION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...POTENTIALLY
SETTING UP AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IS HAD BTW THE OP MODELS AND ENS MEANS WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXT PERIOD.
HEMISPHERIC CHARTS SHOW A TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN ATL
WITH LITTLE MERIDIONAL BLOCKING POTENTIAL...THUS EXPECT PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SE/RN CONUS.

FLAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SAT WITH WEAK AND DRY SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING OFF THE ATL COAST. CLOUD COVER INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DIFL FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A DIGGING
S/W. SO...WILL EXPECT NOMINAL WARMING WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SAT NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY SUN.
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF...THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOSELY WRAPPED PRECIP AND TRACK FAR ENUF EAST FOR LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF POP CONCERNS FOR THE FA. THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE
ERN ZONES AS WE NEAR THE EVENT AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT A -SN
OR A MIXED P/TYPE SITUATION SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE NEXT S/W
DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF MON NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE REINFORCING CP AIRMASS IDEA AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP BEGINNING ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE MON INTO TUE. WITH STRONG DYNO OMEGA CROSSING AND JUST ENUF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BREAK HIGH TERRAIN
CONTAINMENT INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT. TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
ACCUMS...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AND LOW END OUTSIDE THE
MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...
AND TEMPOS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES (EXCEPT KHKY
WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE)...THIS MORNING AT THE UPSTATE SC
TERMINALS AND KAVL...AND FROM 16Z-20Z AT KCLT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
S/SE AT 10-15 KTS...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
SOME WESTERLY GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IFR OR LOW MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AM...WITH VISBY FALLING
TO 2-3SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL
TURN TO LIGHT NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON ADVERTISING THIS
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     LOW   50%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%
KHKY       HIGH  93%     LOW   50%     MED   72%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   64%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-049-050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ008-009-
     013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 031613
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1113 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE FRONTS
WAKE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM....A LINE OF STRONG STORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG HWY 321
AND ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR OF SC/GA. THIS LINE HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF MTNS.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS MAY HAVE BEEN PRIMED BY THE
RECENT MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...DUAL POL RADAR CONTINUES
TO INDICATE 1 HR RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. BASED ON THE LINE
HISTORY AND RECENT TRENDS I HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST
ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...A HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE...GUSTY WINDS ARE
CERTAIN. HOWEVER...LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

AS OF 655 AM...FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH
PLENTY OF UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP AHEAD OF IT. CURRENT TRENDS
OR MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST...SO ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.

SOME RELATIVELY HEALTHY CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA
ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF (BARELY) POSITIVE SBCAPE. THE LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS CAPE AXIS WILL WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER AS
THE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES EAST...WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN AIR MASS
THAT IS COOLER OWING TO RESIDUAL COLD POOL AND PRECEDING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...A PROMINENT WARM FRONT/CAD BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR...WHERE SRH IS BEING
ENHANCED ABOVE AND BEYOND THE ALREADY-IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENTAL SRH.
SO THE SITUATION WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KTS
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA...CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD MIX DOWN
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR INTO THE MTN VALLEYS AS THEY TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR PORTION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OF EQUAL CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...IN LIGHT OF VIRTUALLY
OFF-THE-CHART PWATS...GOOD S/SE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5
KFT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES
LOCALLY. UPSLOPE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES TO COME...AND
AS MUCH AS 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT
IN NC. CONVECTION ALSO ADDS A BIT OF A WILD CARD TO THE SCENARIO...
SO OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BLUE RIDGE IN
NC...FROM TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY NORTHEAST TO AVERY/CALDWELL MTNS.

THE FRONTAL BAND IS MOVING EAST WITH A BIT MORE MOMENTUM THAN
ADVERTISED BY 00Z GUIDANCE. IN FACT...IT WILL LIKELY BE RAINING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THE
LATEST MESOSCALE/CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL OUTPUT ACTUALLY BLAST THE
FRONTAL BAND THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING IT EAST OF I-77 BY 00Z. THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST...BUT IT DOES CALL INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH
HEATING/BUOYANCY WILL BE REALIZED LATER TODAY...DESPITE NAM/GFS
DEPICTION OF AROUND 500 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. PER THE NAM AND THE GFS...THE SEVERE HAZARDS IN
ENVIRONMENTS WITH REDUCED BUOYANCY (SHERB) EXPERIMENTAL PARAMETER IS
AT NEARLY THE OPTIMAL VALUE FOR IDENTIFYING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. INDEED...IF WE ARE ABLE TO
REALIZE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF SHEAR...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL EXIST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS/ DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FLUX AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR SUCH WILL BE EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...FROM LATE MORNING
ON.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL LOCALES RECEIVE A 100 POP FOR TODAY... WITH
POPS RAMPING DOWN SOMEWHAT QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM IS SLOWER
WITH MOVING THE PRECIP EAST THIS EVENING THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS...AS IT TENDS TO DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...QUITE A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS. BUT
AGAIN EVEN THE 06Z NAM IS BEHIND THE CURVE IN BEING MUCH TOO SLOW TO
MOVE THE FRONTAL BAND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A NEARLY FULL
LATITUDE UPPER TROF SLIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE
BROAD/COOL HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
CLOSER TO HOME...AN OLD COLD FRONTAL AXIS STALLED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS SHOWERS AS MODELS FAVOR A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM SAID ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST
OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
SOUTH/EAST OF I85/I77 RESPECTIVELY.

BEYOND THAT...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROF AXIS AND EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING EFFECTIVELY PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT OUT TO
SEA.  AS A RESULT...THE FCST WILL DRY OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
INTRUDES AT THE SURFACE BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A REGION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...POTENTIALLY
SETTING UP AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IS HAD BTW THE OP MODELS AND ENS MEANS WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXT PERIOD.
HEMISPHERIC CHARTS SHOW A TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN ATL
WITH LITTLE MERIDIONAL BLOCKING POTENTIAL...THUS EXPECT PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SE/RN CONUS.

FLAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SAT WITH WEAK AND DRY SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING OFF THE ATL COAST. CLOUD COVER INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DIFL FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A DIGGING
S/W. SO...WILL EXPECT NOMINAL WARMING WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SAT NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY SUN.
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF...THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOSELY WRAPPED PRECIP AND TRACK FAR ENUF EAST FOR LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF POP CONCERNS FOR THE FA. THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE
ERN ZONES AS WE NEAR THE EVENT AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT A -SN
OR A MIXED P/TYPE SITUATION SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE NEXT S/W
DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF MON NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE REINFORCING CP AIRMASS IDEA AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP BEGINNING ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE MON INTO TUE. WITH STRONG DYNO OMEGA CROSSING AND JUST ENUF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BREAK HIGH TERRAIN
CONTAINMENT INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT. TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
ACCUMS...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AND LOW END OUTSIDE THE
MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...
AND TEMPOS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES (EXCEPT KHKY
WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE)...THIS MORNING AT THE UPSTATE SC
TERMINALS AND KAVL...AND FROM 16Z-20Z AT KCLT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
S/SE AT 10-15 KTS...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
SOME WESTERLY GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IFR OR LOW MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AM...WITH VISBY FALLING
TO 2-3SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL
TURN TO LIGHT NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON ADVERTISING THIS
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     LOW   50%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%
KHKY       HIGH  93%     LOW   50%     MED   72%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   64%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-049-050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ008-009-
     013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 031158
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE FRONTS
WAKE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM...FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH
PLENTY OF UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP AHEAD OF IT. CURRENT TRENDS
OR MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST...SO ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.

SOME RELATIVELY HEALTHY CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA
ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF (BARELY) POSITIVE SBCAPE. THE LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS CAPE AXIS WILL WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER AS
THE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES EAST...WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN AIR MASS
THAT IS COOLER OWING TO RESIDUAL COLD POOL AND PRECEDING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...A PROMINENT WARM FRONT/CAD BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR...WHERE SRH IS BEING
ENHANCED ABOVE AND BEYOND THE ALREADY-IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENTAL SRH.
SO THE SITUATION WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KTS
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA...CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD MIX DOWN
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR INTO THE MTN VALLEYS AS THEY TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR PORTION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OF EQUAL CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...IN LIGHT OF VIRTUALLY
OFF-THE-CHART PWATS...GOOD S/SE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5
KFT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES
LOCALLY. UPSLOPE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES TO COME...AND
AS MUCH AS 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT
IN NC. CONVECTION ALSO ADDS A BIT OF A WILD CARD TO THE SCENARIO...
SO OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BLUE RIDGE IN
NC...FROM TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY NORTHEAST TO AVERY/CALDWELL MTNS.

THE FRONTAL BAND IS MOVING EAST WITH A BIT MORE MOMENTUM THAN
ADVERTISED BY 00Z GUIDANCE. IN FACT...IT WILL LIKELY BE RAINING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THE
LATEST MESOSCALE/CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL OUTPUT ACTUALLY BLAST THE
FRONTAL BAND THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING IT EAST OF I-77 BY 00Z. THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST...BUT IT DOES CALL INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH
HEATING/BUOYANCY WILL BE REALIZED LATER TODAY...DESPITE NAM/GFS
DEPICTION OF AROUND 500 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. PER THE NAM AND THE GFS...THE SEVERE HAZARDS IN
ENVIRONMENTS WITH REDUCED BUOYANCY (SHERB) EXPERIMENTAL PARAMETER IS
AT NEARLY THE OPTIMAL VALUE FOR IDENTIFYING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. INDEED...IF WE ARE ABLE TO
REALIZE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF SHEAR...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL EXIST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS/ DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FLUX AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR SUCH WILL BE EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...FROM LATE MORNING
ON.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL LOCALES RECEIVE A 100 POP FOR TODAY... WITH
POPS RAMPING DOWN SOMEWHAT QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM IS SLOWER
WITH MOVING THE PRECIP EAST THIS EVENING THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS...AS IT TENDS TO DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...QUITE A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS. BUT
AGAIN EVEN THE 06Z NAM IS BEHIND THE CURVE IN BEING MUCH TOO SLOW TO
MOVE THE FRONTAL BAND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A NEARLY FULL
LATITUDE UPPER TROF SLIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE
BROAD/COOL HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
CLOSER TO HOME...AN OLD COLD FRONTAL AXIS STALLED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS SHOWERS AS MODELS FAVOR A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM SAID ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST
OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
SOUTH/EAST OF I85/I77 RESPECTIVELY.

BEYOND THAT...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROF AXIS AND EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING EFFECTIVELY PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT OUT TO
SEA.  AS A RESULT...THE FCST WILL DRY OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
INTRUDES AT THE SURFACE BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A REGION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...POTENTIALLY
SETTING UP AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IS HAD BTW THE OP MODELS AND ENS MEANS WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXT PERIOD.
HEMISPHERIC CHARTS SHOW A TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN ATL
WITH LITTLE MERIDIONAL BLOCKING POTENTIAL...THUS EXPECT PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SE/RN CONUS.

FLAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SAT WITH WEAK AND DRY SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING OFF THE ATL COAST. CLOUD COVER INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DIFL FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A DIGGING
S/W. SO...WILL EXPECT NOMINAL WARMING WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SAT NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY SUN.
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF...THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOSELY WRAPPED PRECIP AND TRACK FAR ENUF EAST FOR LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF POP CONCERNS FOR THE FA. THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE
ERN ZONES AS WE NEAR THE EVENT AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT A -SN
OR A MIXED P/TYPE SITUATION SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE NEXT S/W
DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF MON NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE REINFORCING CP AIRMASS IDEA AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP BEGINNING ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE MON INTO TUE. WITH STRONG DYNO OMEGA CROSSING AND JUST ENUF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BREAK HIGH TERRAIN
CONTAINMENT INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT. TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
ACCUMS...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AND LOW END OUTSIDE THE
MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...
AND TEMPOS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES (EXCEPT KHKY
WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE)...THIS MORNING AT THE UPSTATE SC
TERMINALS AND KAVL...AND FROM 16Z-20Z AT KCLT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
S/SE AT 10-15 KTS...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
SOME WESTERLY GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IFR OR LOW MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AM...WITH VISBY FALLING
TO 2-3SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL
TURN TO LIGHT NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON ADVERTISING THIS
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     MED   75%     MED   72%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     MED   76%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH  98%     MED   62%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     MED   79%     MED   66%     MED   77%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     MED   76%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-049-050-053-
     064-065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>052-
     058-059-062>064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 031158
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE FRONTS
WAKE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM...FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH
PLENTY OF UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP AHEAD OF IT. CURRENT TRENDS
OR MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST...SO ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.

SOME RELATIVELY HEALTHY CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA
ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF (BARELY) POSITIVE SBCAPE. THE LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS CAPE AXIS WILL WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER AS
THE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES EAST...WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN AIR MASS
THAT IS COOLER OWING TO RESIDUAL COLD POOL AND PRECEDING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...A PROMINENT WARM FRONT/CAD BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR...WHERE SRH IS BEING
ENHANCED ABOVE AND BEYOND THE ALREADY-IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENTAL SRH.
SO THE SITUATION WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KTS
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA...CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD MIX DOWN
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR INTO THE MTN VALLEYS AS THEY TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR PORTION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OF EQUAL CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...IN LIGHT OF VIRTUALLY
OFF-THE-CHART PWATS...GOOD S/SE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5
KFT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES
LOCALLY. UPSLOPE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES TO COME...AND
AS MUCH AS 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT
IN NC. CONVECTION ALSO ADDS A BIT OF A WILD CARD TO THE SCENARIO...
SO OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BLUE RIDGE IN
NC...FROM TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY NORTHEAST TO AVERY/CALDWELL MTNS.

THE FRONTAL BAND IS MOVING EAST WITH A BIT MORE MOMENTUM THAN
ADVERTISED BY 00Z GUIDANCE. IN FACT...IT WILL LIKELY BE RAINING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THE
LATEST MESOSCALE/CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL OUTPUT ACTUALLY BLAST THE
FRONTAL BAND THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING IT EAST OF I-77 BY 00Z. THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST...BUT IT DOES CALL INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH
HEATING/BUOYANCY WILL BE REALIZED LATER TODAY...DESPITE NAM/GFS
DEPICTION OF AROUND 500 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. PER THE NAM AND THE GFS...THE SEVERE HAZARDS IN
ENVIRONMENTS WITH REDUCED BUOYANCY (SHERB) EXPERIMENTAL PARAMETER IS
AT NEARLY THE OPTIMAL VALUE FOR IDENTIFYING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. INDEED...IF WE ARE ABLE TO
REALIZE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF SHEAR...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL EXIST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS/ DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FLUX AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR SUCH WILL BE EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...FROM LATE MORNING
ON.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL LOCALES RECEIVE A 100 POP FOR TODAY... WITH
POPS RAMPING DOWN SOMEWHAT QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM IS SLOWER
WITH MOVING THE PRECIP EAST THIS EVENING THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS...AS IT TENDS TO DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...QUITE A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS. BUT
AGAIN EVEN THE 06Z NAM IS BEHIND THE CURVE IN BEING MUCH TOO SLOW TO
MOVE THE FRONTAL BAND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A NEARLY FULL
LATITUDE UPPER TROF SLIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE
BROAD/COOL HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
CLOSER TO HOME...AN OLD COLD FRONTAL AXIS STALLED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS SHOWERS AS MODELS FAVOR A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM SAID ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST
OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
SOUTH/EAST OF I85/I77 RESPECTIVELY.

BEYOND THAT...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROF AXIS AND EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING EFFECTIVELY PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT OUT TO
SEA.  AS A RESULT...THE FCST WILL DRY OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
INTRUDES AT THE SURFACE BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A REGION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...POTENTIALLY
SETTING UP AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IS HAD BTW THE OP MODELS AND ENS MEANS WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXT PERIOD.
HEMISPHERIC CHARTS SHOW A TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN ATL
WITH LITTLE MERIDIONAL BLOCKING POTENTIAL...THUS EXPECT PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SE/RN CONUS.

FLAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SAT WITH WEAK AND DRY SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING OFF THE ATL COAST. CLOUD COVER INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DIFL FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A DIGGING
S/W. SO...WILL EXPECT NOMINAL WARMING WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SAT NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY SUN.
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF...THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOSELY WRAPPED PRECIP AND TRACK FAR ENUF EAST FOR LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF POP CONCERNS FOR THE FA. THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE
ERN ZONES AS WE NEAR THE EVENT AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT A -SN
OR A MIXED P/TYPE SITUATION SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE NEXT S/W
DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF MON NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE REINFORCING CP AIRMASS IDEA AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP BEGINNING ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE MON INTO TUE. WITH STRONG DYNO OMEGA CROSSING AND JUST ENUF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BREAK HIGH TERRAIN
CONTAINMENT INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT. TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
ACCUMS...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AND LOW END OUTSIDE THE
MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...
AND TEMPOS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES (EXCEPT KHKY
WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE)...THIS MORNING AT THE UPSTATE SC
TERMINALS AND KAVL...AND FROM 16Z-20Z AT KCLT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
S/SE AT 10-15 KTS...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
SOME WESTERLY GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IFR OR LOW MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AM...WITH VISBY FALLING
TO 2-3SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL
TURN TO LIGHT NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON ADVERTISING THIS
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     MED   75%     MED   72%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     MED   76%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH  98%     MED   62%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     MED   79%     MED   66%     MED   77%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     MED   76%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-049-050-053-
     064-065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>052-
     058-059-062>064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 031158
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE FRONTS
WAKE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MOIST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM...FRONTAL PRECIP BAND IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH
PLENTY OF UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP AHEAD OF IT. CURRENT TRENDS
OR MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST...SO ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.

SOME RELATIVELY HEALTHY CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA
ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF (BARELY) POSITIVE SBCAPE. THE LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS CAPE AXIS WILL WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER AS
THE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES EAST...WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN AIR MASS
THAT IS COOLER OWING TO RESIDUAL COLD POOL AND PRECEDING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...A PROMINENT WARM FRONT/CAD BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR...WHERE SRH IS BEING
ENHANCED ABOVE AND BEYOND THE ALREADY-IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENTAL SRH.
SO THE SITUATION WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KTS
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA...CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD MIX DOWN
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR INTO THE MTN VALLEYS AS THEY TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR PORTION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OF EQUAL CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...IN LIGHT OF VIRTUALLY
OFF-THE-CHART PWATS...GOOD S/SE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5
KFT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES
LOCALLY. UPSLOPE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES TO COME...AND
AS MUCH AS 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT
IN NC. CONVECTION ALSO ADDS A BIT OF A WILD CARD TO THE SCENARIO...
SO OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BLUE RIDGE IN
NC...FROM TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY NORTHEAST TO AVERY/CALDWELL MTNS.

THE FRONTAL BAND IS MOVING EAST WITH A BIT MORE MOMENTUM THAN
ADVERTISED BY 00Z GUIDANCE. IN FACT...IT WILL LIKELY BE RAINING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THE
LATEST MESOSCALE/CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL OUTPUT ACTUALLY BLAST THE
FRONTAL BAND THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING IT EAST OF I-77 BY 00Z. THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST...BUT IT DOES CALL INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH
HEATING/BUOYANCY WILL BE REALIZED LATER TODAY...DESPITE NAM/GFS
DEPICTION OF AROUND 500 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. PER THE NAM AND THE GFS...THE SEVERE HAZARDS IN
ENVIRONMENTS WITH REDUCED BUOYANCY (SHERB) EXPERIMENTAL PARAMETER IS
AT NEARLY THE OPTIMAL VALUE FOR IDENTIFYING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. INDEED...IF WE ARE ABLE TO
REALIZE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF SHEAR...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL EXIST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS/ DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FLUX AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR SUCH WILL BE EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...FROM LATE MORNING
ON.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL LOCALES RECEIVE A 100 POP FOR TODAY... WITH
POPS RAMPING DOWN SOMEWHAT QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE NAM IS SLOWER
WITH MOVING THE PRECIP EAST THIS EVENING THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS...AS IT TENDS TO DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...QUITE A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS. BUT
AGAIN EVEN THE 06Z NAM IS BEHIND THE CURVE IN BEING MUCH TOO SLOW TO
MOVE THE FRONTAL BAND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES
ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A NEARLY FULL
LATITUDE UPPER TROF SLIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WHILE
BROAD/COOL HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
CLOSER TO HOME...AN OLD COLD FRONTAL AXIS STALLED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS SHOWERS AS MODELS FAVOR A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM SAID ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST
OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE
SOUTH/EAST OF I85/I77 RESPECTIVELY.

BEYOND THAT...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROF AXIS AND EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING EFFECTIVELY PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT OUT TO
SEA.  AS A RESULT...THE FCST WILL DRY OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
INTRUDES AT THE SURFACE BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A REGION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...POTENTIALLY
SETTING UP AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IS HAD BTW THE OP MODELS AND ENS MEANS WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXT PERIOD.
HEMISPHERIC CHARTS SHOW A TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN ATL
WITH LITTLE MERIDIONAL BLOCKING POTENTIAL...THUS EXPECT PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SE/RN CONUS.

FLAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SAT WITH WEAK AND DRY SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING OFF THE ATL COAST. CLOUD COVER INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DIFL FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A DIGGING
S/W. SO...WILL EXPECT NOMINAL WARMING WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SAT NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY SUN.
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF...THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOSELY WRAPPED PRECIP AND TRACK FAR ENUF EAST FOR LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF POP CONCERNS FOR THE FA. THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE
ERN ZONES AS WE NEAR THE EVENT AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT A -SN
OR A MIXED P/TYPE SITUATION SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE NEXT S/W
DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF MON NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE REINFORCING CP AIRMASS IDEA AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP BEGINNING ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE MON INTO TUE. WITH STRONG DYNO OMEGA CROSSING AND JUST ENUF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BREAK HIGH TERRAIN
CONTAINMENT INTO THE NC/SC PIEDMONT. TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
ACCUMS...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AND LOW END OUTSIDE THE
MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...
AND TEMPOS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES (EXCEPT KHKY
WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE)...THIS MORNING AT THE UPSTATE SC
TERMINALS AND KAVL...AND FROM 16Z-20Z AT KCLT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
S/SE AT 10-15 KTS...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
SOME WESTERLY GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IFR OR LOW MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AM...WITH VISBY FALLING
TO 2-3SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL
TURN TO LIGHT NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON ADVERTISING THIS
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     MED   75%     MED   72%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     MED   76%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH  98%     MED   62%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     MED   79%     MED   66%     MED   77%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     MED   76%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-049-050-053-
     064-065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>052-
     058-059-062>064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL





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