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000
FXUS62 KGSP 282007
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
307 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER MOIST COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THIN OUT OVER
MOST OF THE CWFA WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE
SC UPSTATE. AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EAST...CAD
SHOULD STRENGTHEN THRU THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS POPS RAMP UP
A BIT SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. I HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF
THE SC UPSTATE BY 9Z SUN AND HIGH END CHANCE ELSEWHERE. BY
12Z...MOST LOCATIONS CARRY LIKELY POPS. AS FORCING MOVES NE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...PRECIP CHANCES FALL OFF BY 00Z MON.
WRT P-TYPE...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A RAIN/FZ RAIN MIXTURE FOR EARLY
SUN WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AS THINGS WARM UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING HIGHER AMOUNTS SO
I HAVE INCREASED OUR STORM TOTAL ICE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE UP TO 0.11
INCHES OVER THE FAR NE ZONES. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NW PIEDMONT YET IT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH ON
MONDAY DROPPING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP END PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN...BUT SOME WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MTNS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THRU AND THE MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. ALL PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID SUN NITE AND MON AS THE COLDEST AIR IS SLOW TO MOVE IN WITH
THE HIGH. LOWS SUN NITE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MONDAY NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

THE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...BUT IS
BLOCKED ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST SETS
UP AS A HYBRID CAD. HOWEVER...MOIST LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT DO DEVELOP LATE MON NITE INTO TUE. TEMPS WILL BE
COLD ENUF AT ONSET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE AREA...AND POSSIBLY NORTH OF I-40 ACROSS THE
NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BEST CHC FOR ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...HOWEVER EVEN THESE AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT. LOWS MON NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT HIGHS TUE WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
DEVELOPING PRECIP AND CAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL IN A LITTLE DISAGREEMENT ON
EXACT TIMING OF A WET FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE CWFA WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
SAME GENERAL IDEA. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
GFS/S FASTER TIMING ON WEDNESDAY...AND IS STILL QUICKER ON PUSHING
THE FRONTAL BAND ALL THE WAY THRU BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND CMC ARE A LITTLE SLOWER...AND KEEP
WIDESPREAD QPF ACRS THE CWFA THRU THE DAY THURSDAY. GOING WITH A
COMPROMISE/WPC FOR THIS FCST.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT TEMPS
5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL (WELL INTO THE 60S ACRS THE PIEDMONT). POPS
START RAMPING UP TO LIKELY IN THE EAST AND CATEGORICAL IN THE WEST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS. THE PERSISTENT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SHUD RESULT IN A SOLID
RAIN SHIELD...WITH SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...STILL NO
CLEAR SIGNALS THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH HYDRO/EXCESSIVE RAIN CONCERNS.
CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 3500 FT ALONG THE TN LINE TOWARD
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...AS THE POLAR AIR MASS TO THE WEST STARTS TO PUSH
IN WHILE LIFT PERSISTS IN THE MID LVLS. MAY SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMS THERE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. I HAVE POPS GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NW. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY FOR TEMPS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO
BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH
PRES SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT A BIT MORE THAN ANTICIPATED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
FEW TO SCT BETWEEN 8000 AND 12000 FT. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND DEEPER LYR MOISTURE
FILLS IN. BY 23Z OR SO...I HAVE ALL 6 SITES WITH MVFR CIGS AND BY
10Z TOMORROW CIGS DROP BELOW 1000FT WITH CLT DROPPING LAST. AS A
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND FZ RAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN IFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME VISBY RESTRICTIONS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS OR SO. I WAS NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY VISBY RESTRICTIONS IN THE 18Z TAFS...HOWEVER
THIS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE 00Z ISSUANCE ESPECIALLY FOR KCLT. WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN A TYPICAL CAD TYPE ORIENTATION FROM THE NE THRU THE
PERIOD WITH KAVL MAINTAINING A MORE SELY DIRECTION. SOME GUSTS IN
THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE PERIOD...BUT THEY SHOULD BE
SPORADIC AND NOT PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL WEAKEN AS WE MOVE INTO LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING NORTH OF
THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH MOVES NE OF THE REGION...ANOTHER BRIEF
CAD PATTERN IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
PRECIP AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FOR TUES AD WED...HOWEVER EXACT
TIMING REMAINS CHALLENGING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-
     507>510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-501>506.
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR SCZ001>003-006>009-012>014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JPT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 282007
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
307 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER MOIST COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THIN OUT OVER
MOST OF THE CWFA WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE
SC UPSTATE. AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EAST...CAD
SHOULD STRENGTHEN THRU THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS POPS RAMP UP
A BIT SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. I HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF
THE SC UPSTATE BY 9Z SUN AND HIGH END CHANCE ELSEWHERE. BY
12Z...MOST LOCATIONS CARRY LIKELY POPS. AS FORCING MOVES NE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...PRECIP CHANCES FALL OFF BY 00Z MON.
WRT P-TYPE...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A RAIN/FZ RAIN MIXTURE FOR EARLY
SUN WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AS THINGS WARM UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING HIGHER AMOUNTS SO
I HAVE INCREASED OUR STORM TOTAL ICE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE UP TO 0.11
INCHES OVER THE FAR NE ZONES. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NW PIEDMONT YET IT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH ON
MONDAY DROPPING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP END PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN...BUT SOME WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MTNS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THRU AND THE MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. ALL PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID SUN NITE AND MON AS THE COLDEST AIR IS SLOW TO MOVE IN WITH
THE HIGH. LOWS SUN NITE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MONDAY NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

THE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...BUT IS
BLOCKED ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST SETS
UP AS A HYBRID CAD. HOWEVER...MOIST LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT DO DEVELOP LATE MON NITE INTO TUE. TEMPS WILL BE
COLD ENUF AT ONSET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE AREA...AND POSSIBLY NORTH OF I-40 ACROSS THE
NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BEST CHC FOR ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...HOWEVER EVEN THESE AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT. LOWS MON NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT HIGHS TUE WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
DEVELOPING PRECIP AND CAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL IN A LITTLE DISAGREEMENT ON
EXACT TIMING OF A WET FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE CWFA WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE
SAME GENERAL IDEA. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
GFS/S FASTER TIMING ON WEDNESDAY...AND IS STILL QUICKER ON PUSHING
THE FRONTAL BAND ALL THE WAY THRU BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND CMC ARE A LITTLE SLOWER...AND KEEP
WIDESPREAD QPF ACRS THE CWFA THRU THE DAY THURSDAY. GOING WITH A
COMPROMISE/WPC FOR THIS FCST.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT TEMPS
5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL (WELL INTO THE 60S ACRS THE PIEDMONT). POPS
START RAMPING UP TO LIKELY IN THE EAST AND CATEGORICAL IN THE WEST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS. THE PERSISTENT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SHUD RESULT IN A SOLID
RAIN SHIELD...WITH SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...STILL NO
CLEAR SIGNALS THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH HYDRO/EXCESSIVE RAIN CONCERNS.
CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 3500 FT ALONG THE TN LINE TOWARD
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...AS THE POLAR AIR MASS TO THE WEST STARTS TO PUSH
IN WHILE LIFT PERSISTS IN THE MID LVLS. MAY SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMS THERE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. I HAVE POPS GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NW. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY FOR TEMPS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO
BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH
PRES SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT A BIT MORE THAN ANTICIPATED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
FEW TO SCT BETWEEN 8000 AND 12000 FT. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND DEEPER LYR MOISTURE
FILLS IN. BY 23Z OR SO...I HAVE ALL 6 SITES WITH MVFR CIGS AND BY
10Z TOMORROW CIGS DROP BELOW 1000FT WITH CLT DROPPING LAST. AS A
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND FZ RAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN IFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME VISBY RESTRICTIONS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS OR SO. I WAS NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY VISBY RESTRICTIONS IN THE 18Z TAFS...HOWEVER
THIS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE 00Z ISSUANCE ESPECIALLY FOR KCLT. WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN A TYPICAL CAD TYPE ORIENTATION FROM THE NE THRU THE
PERIOD WITH KAVL MAINTAINING A MORE SELY DIRECTION. SOME GUSTS IN
THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE PERIOD...BUT THEY SHOULD BE
SPORADIC AND NOT PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL WEAKEN AS WE MOVE INTO LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING NORTH OF
THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH MOVES NE OF THE REGION...ANOTHER BRIEF
CAD PATTERN IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
PRECIP AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FOR TUES AD WED...HOWEVER EXACT
TIMING REMAINS CHALLENGING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-
     507>510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-501>506.
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR SCZ001>003-006>009-012>014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JPT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281814
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
114 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SOME
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING...YET MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL SCT TO OVC WITH MID LVL CIGS. ANY ADDITIONAL
CLEARING SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS DEWPTS SLOWLY CREEP UP AND THE WEDGE
PATTERN STRENGTHENS TO OUR NE. I LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
OVER MOST OF THE CWFA AS MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO WARM WITH
THESE CAD REGIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
AREAS. MOST OF THOSE AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. I KEEP THINGS DRY THRU 00Z SUN WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM
THE SOUTH BEYOND THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 245 AM EST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER
THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO IT ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. HEIGHTS RILL RISE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIE OF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW DIVES S ALONG THE
CA COAST...RESULTING IN A FLAT RIDGE FORM TN TO THE CAROLINAS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN A WEDGE CONFIGURATIONS. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER THIS WEDGE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ONLY OUR NON MOUNTAIN GA
COUNTIES WILL BE IN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. WITH UPGLIDE RATHER
WEAK...QPF IS EXPECTED OT BE RATHER LIGHT...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
IN COOL NE FLOW UNDER CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL IN RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WHILE IT APPEARS RATHER CERTAIN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING...THE AND EXTENT OF ANY ICING IS
STILL NOT AT ALL CERTAIN. WHILE THE NAM REMAINS QUITE WET...
DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF OF AROUND .25 INCH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF SYSTEM IS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING...AS THE
NAM TYPICALLY DOES A REASONABLE JOB IN HANDLING MOISTURE-RETURN/
UPGLIDE PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...EVEN A PREFECT PROG OF THE NAM...
WHICH CAN PROBABLY BE VIEWED AS A /WORST-CASE/ SCENARIO WOULD
SUGGEST ANY ICING WOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY AT ADVISORY-LEVELS...EVEN IF
SOME LOCATIONS SEE AN ALL-FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AND THIS SEEMS FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...AS THE MODELS WARM/MOISTEN THE AIR MASS QUITE QUICKLY
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA...AND A SURFACE PATTERN THAT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG HYBRID CAD. IN FACT...
IT/S INTERESTING THAT THE NAM...WHICH ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT TO
HAVE A SUPERIOR HANDLE ON THE DECAYING CAD AIR MASS THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT ACTUALLY THE WARMEST MODEL. EVEN SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL HOLD ON TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...WHICH WOULD SEE MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-85 EXPERIENCING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA.
STILL...WITH UNCERTAINTY LINGERING REGARDING QPF AND THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF COLD AIR...HAVE OPTED TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY
ATTM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT/
MONDAY TIME FRAME WAS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS
FORCING FOR UVV/PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...
UPGLIDE WILL SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY SUN AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO W-NW...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THUS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT...AND
INDEED MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS VIRTUALLY NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING
THIS TIME. DELAY OF COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 60S EXPECTED ON MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...
1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF MONDAY...
WHICH WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HYBRID CAD EVENT AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR UPGLIDE PRECIP BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/FHILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET
REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT A BIT MORE THAN ANTICIPATED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
FEW TO SCT BETWEEN 8000 AND 12000 FT. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND DEEPER LYR MOISTURE
FILLS IN. BY 23Z OR SO...I HAVE ALL 6 SITES WITH MVFR CIGS AND BY
10Z TOMORROW CIGS DROP BELOW 1000FT WITH CLT DROPPING LAST. AS A
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND FZ RAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN IFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME VISBY RESTRICTIONS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS OR SO. I WAS NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY VISBY RESTRICTIONS IN THE 18Z TAFS...HOWEVER
THIS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE 00Z ISSUANCE ESPECIALLY FOR KCLT. WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN A TYPICAL CAD TYPE ORIENTATION FROM THE NE THRU THE
PERIOD WITH KAVL MAINTAINING A MORE SELY DIRECTION. SOME GUSTS IN
THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE PERIOD...BUT THEY SHOULD BE
SPORADIC AND NOT PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL WEAKEN AS WE MOVE INTO LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING NORTH OF
THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH MOVES NE OF THE REGION...ANOTHER BRIEF
CAD PATTERN IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
PRECIP AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FOR TUES AD WED...HOWEVER EXACT
TIMING REMAINS CHALLENGING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JPT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 281814
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
114 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SOME
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING...YET MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL SCT TO OVC WITH MID LVL CIGS. ANY ADDITIONAL
CLEARING SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS DEWPTS SLOWLY CREEP UP AND THE WEDGE
PATTERN STRENGTHENS TO OUR NE. I LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
OVER MOST OF THE CWFA AS MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO WARM WITH
THESE CAD REGIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
AREAS. MOST OF THOSE AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. I KEEP THINGS DRY THRU 00Z SUN WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM
THE SOUTH BEYOND THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 245 AM EST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER
THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO IT ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. HEIGHTS RILL RISE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIE OF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW DIVES S ALONG THE
CA COAST...RESULTING IN A FLAT RIDGE FORM TN TO THE CAROLINAS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN A WEDGE CONFIGURATIONS. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER THIS WEDGE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ONLY OUR NON MOUNTAIN GA
COUNTIES WILL BE IN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. WITH UPGLIDE RATHER
WEAK...QPF IS EXPECTED OT BE RATHER LIGHT...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
IN COOL NE FLOW UNDER CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL IN RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WHILE IT APPEARS RATHER CERTAIN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING...THE AND EXTENT OF ANY ICING IS
STILL NOT AT ALL CERTAIN. WHILE THE NAM REMAINS QUITE WET...
DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF OF AROUND .25 INCH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF SYSTEM IS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING...AS THE
NAM TYPICALLY DOES A REASONABLE JOB IN HANDLING MOISTURE-RETURN/
UPGLIDE PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...EVEN A PREFECT PROG OF THE NAM...
WHICH CAN PROBABLY BE VIEWED AS A /WORST-CASE/ SCENARIO WOULD
SUGGEST ANY ICING WOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY AT ADVISORY-LEVELS...EVEN IF
SOME LOCATIONS SEE AN ALL-FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AND THIS SEEMS FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...AS THE MODELS WARM/MOISTEN THE AIR MASS QUITE QUICKLY
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA...AND A SURFACE PATTERN THAT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG HYBRID CAD. IN FACT...
IT/S INTERESTING THAT THE NAM...WHICH ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT TO
HAVE A SUPERIOR HANDLE ON THE DECAYING CAD AIR MASS THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT ACTUALLY THE WARMEST MODEL. EVEN SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL HOLD ON TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...WHICH WOULD SEE MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-85 EXPERIENCING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA.
STILL...WITH UNCERTAINTY LINGERING REGARDING QPF AND THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF COLD AIR...HAVE OPTED TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY
ATTM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT/
MONDAY TIME FRAME WAS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS
FORCING FOR UVV/PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...
UPGLIDE WILL SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY SUN AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO W-NW...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THUS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT...AND
INDEED MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS VIRTUALLY NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING
THIS TIME. DELAY OF COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 60S EXPECTED ON MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...
1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF MONDAY...
WHICH WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HYBRID CAD EVENT AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR UPGLIDE PRECIP BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/FHILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET
REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT A BIT MORE THAN ANTICIPATED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
FEW TO SCT BETWEEN 8000 AND 12000 FT. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND DEEPER LYR MOISTURE
FILLS IN. BY 23Z OR SO...I HAVE ALL 6 SITES WITH MVFR CIGS AND BY
10Z TOMORROW CIGS DROP BELOW 1000FT WITH CLT DROPPING LAST. AS A
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND FZ RAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN IFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME VISBY RESTRICTIONS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS OR SO. I WAS NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY VISBY RESTRICTIONS IN THE 18Z TAFS...HOWEVER
THIS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE 00Z ISSUANCE ESPECIALLY FOR KCLT. WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN A TYPICAL CAD TYPE ORIENTATION FROM THE NE THRU THE
PERIOD WITH KAVL MAINTAINING A MORE SELY DIRECTION. SOME GUSTS IN
THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE PERIOD...BUT THEY SHOULD BE
SPORADIC AND NOT PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL WEAKEN AS WE MOVE INTO LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING NORTH OF
THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH MOVES NE OF THE REGION...ANOTHER BRIEF
CAD PATTERN IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
PRECIP AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FOR TUES AD WED...HOWEVER EXACT
TIMING REMAINS CHALLENGING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JPT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281814
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
114 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SOME
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING...YET MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL SCT TO OVC WITH MID LVL CIGS. ANY ADDITIONAL
CLEARING SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS DEWPTS SLOWLY CREEP UP AND THE WEDGE
PATTERN STRENGTHENS TO OUR NE. I LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
OVER MOST OF THE CWFA AS MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO WARM WITH
THESE CAD REGIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
AREAS. MOST OF THOSE AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. I KEEP THINGS DRY THRU 00Z SUN WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM
THE SOUTH BEYOND THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 245 AM EST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER
THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO IT ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. HEIGHTS RILL RISE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIE OF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW DIVES S ALONG THE
CA COAST...RESULTING IN A FLAT RIDGE FORM TN TO THE CAROLINAS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN A WEDGE CONFIGURATIONS. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER THIS WEDGE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ONLY OUR NON MOUNTAIN GA
COUNTIES WILL BE IN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. WITH UPGLIDE RATHER
WEAK...QPF IS EXPECTED OT BE RATHER LIGHT...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
IN COOL NE FLOW UNDER CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL IN RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WHILE IT APPEARS RATHER CERTAIN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING...THE AND EXTENT OF ANY ICING IS
STILL NOT AT ALL CERTAIN. WHILE THE NAM REMAINS QUITE WET...
DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF OF AROUND .25 INCH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF SYSTEM IS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING...AS THE
NAM TYPICALLY DOES A REASONABLE JOB IN HANDLING MOISTURE-RETURN/
UPGLIDE PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...EVEN A PREFECT PROG OF THE NAM...
WHICH CAN PROBABLY BE VIEWED AS A /WORST-CASE/ SCENARIO WOULD
SUGGEST ANY ICING WOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY AT ADVISORY-LEVELS...EVEN IF
SOME LOCATIONS SEE AN ALL-FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AND THIS SEEMS FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...AS THE MODELS WARM/MOISTEN THE AIR MASS QUITE QUICKLY
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA...AND A SURFACE PATTERN THAT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG HYBRID CAD. IN FACT...
IT/S INTERESTING THAT THE NAM...WHICH ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT TO
HAVE A SUPERIOR HANDLE ON THE DECAYING CAD AIR MASS THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT ACTUALLY THE WARMEST MODEL. EVEN SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL HOLD ON TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...WHICH WOULD SEE MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-85 EXPERIENCING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA.
STILL...WITH UNCERTAINTY LINGERING REGARDING QPF AND THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF COLD AIR...HAVE OPTED TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY
ATTM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT/
MONDAY TIME FRAME WAS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS
FORCING FOR UVV/PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...
UPGLIDE WILL SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY SUN AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO W-NW...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THUS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT...AND
INDEED MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS VIRTUALLY NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING
THIS TIME. DELAY OF COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 60S EXPECTED ON MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...
1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF MONDAY...
WHICH WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HYBRID CAD EVENT AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR UPGLIDE PRECIP BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/FHILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET
REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT A BIT MORE THAN ANTICIPATED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
FEW TO SCT BETWEEN 8000 AND 12000 FT. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND DEEPER LYR MOISTURE
FILLS IN. BY 23Z OR SO...I HAVE ALL 6 SITES WITH MVFR CIGS AND BY
10Z TOMORROW CIGS DROP BELOW 1000FT WITH CLT DROPPING LAST. AS A
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND FZ RAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN IFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME VISBY RESTRICTIONS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS OR SO. I WAS NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY VISBY RESTRICTIONS IN THE 18Z TAFS...HOWEVER
THIS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE 00Z ISSUANCE ESPECIALLY FOR KCLT. WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN A TYPICAL CAD TYPE ORIENTATION FROM THE NE THRU THE
PERIOD WITH KAVL MAINTAINING A MORE SELY DIRECTION. SOME GUSTS IN
THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE PERIOD...BUT THEY SHOULD BE
SPORADIC AND NOT PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL WEAKEN AS WE MOVE INTO LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING NORTH OF
THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH MOVES NE OF THE REGION...ANOTHER BRIEF
CAD PATTERN IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
PRECIP AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FOR TUES AD WED...HOWEVER EXACT
TIMING REMAINS CHALLENGING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JPT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 281814
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
114 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SOME
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING...YET MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL SCT TO OVC WITH MID LVL CIGS. ANY ADDITIONAL
CLEARING SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS DEWPTS SLOWLY CREEP UP AND THE WEDGE
PATTERN STRENGTHENS TO OUR NE. I LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
OVER MOST OF THE CWFA AS MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO WARM WITH
THESE CAD REGIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
AREAS. MOST OF THOSE AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. I KEEP THINGS DRY THRU 00Z SUN WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM
THE SOUTH BEYOND THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 245 AM EST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER
THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO IT ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. HEIGHTS RILL RISE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIE OF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW DIVES S ALONG THE
CA COAST...RESULTING IN A FLAT RIDGE FORM TN TO THE CAROLINAS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN A WEDGE CONFIGURATIONS. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER THIS WEDGE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ONLY OUR NON MOUNTAIN GA
COUNTIES WILL BE IN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. WITH UPGLIDE RATHER
WEAK...QPF IS EXPECTED OT BE RATHER LIGHT...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
IN COOL NE FLOW UNDER CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL IN RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WHILE IT APPEARS RATHER CERTAIN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING...THE AND EXTENT OF ANY ICING IS
STILL NOT AT ALL CERTAIN. WHILE THE NAM REMAINS QUITE WET...
DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF OF AROUND .25 INCH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF SYSTEM IS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING...AS THE
NAM TYPICALLY DOES A REASONABLE JOB IN HANDLING MOISTURE-RETURN/
UPGLIDE PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...EVEN A PREFECT PROG OF THE NAM...
WHICH CAN PROBABLY BE VIEWED AS A /WORST-CASE/ SCENARIO WOULD
SUGGEST ANY ICING WOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY AT ADVISORY-LEVELS...EVEN IF
SOME LOCATIONS SEE AN ALL-FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AND THIS SEEMS FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...AS THE MODELS WARM/MOISTEN THE AIR MASS QUITE QUICKLY
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA...AND A SURFACE PATTERN THAT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG HYBRID CAD. IN FACT...
IT/S INTERESTING THAT THE NAM...WHICH ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT TO
HAVE A SUPERIOR HANDLE ON THE DECAYING CAD AIR MASS THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT ACTUALLY THE WARMEST MODEL. EVEN SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL HOLD ON TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...WHICH WOULD SEE MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-85 EXPERIENCING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA.
STILL...WITH UNCERTAINTY LINGERING REGARDING QPF AND THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF COLD AIR...HAVE OPTED TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY
ATTM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT/
MONDAY TIME FRAME WAS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS
FORCING FOR UVV/PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...
UPGLIDE WILL SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY SUN AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO W-NW...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THUS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT...AND
INDEED MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS VIRTUALLY NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING
THIS TIME. DELAY OF COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 60S EXPECTED ON MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...
1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF MONDAY...
WHICH WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HYBRID CAD EVENT AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR UPGLIDE PRECIP BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/FHILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET
REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT A BIT MORE THAN ANTICIPATED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
FEW TO SCT BETWEEN 8000 AND 12000 FT. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND DEEPER LYR MOISTURE
FILLS IN. BY 23Z OR SO...I HAVE ALL 6 SITES WITH MVFR CIGS AND BY
10Z TOMORROW CIGS DROP BELOW 1000FT WITH CLT DROPPING LAST. AS A
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND FZ RAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN IFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME VISBY RESTRICTIONS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS OR SO. I WAS NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY VISBY RESTRICTIONS IN THE 18Z TAFS...HOWEVER
THIS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE 00Z ISSUANCE ESPECIALLY FOR KCLT. WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN A TYPICAL CAD TYPE ORIENTATION FROM THE NE THRU THE
PERIOD WITH KAVL MAINTAINING A MORE SELY DIRECTION. SOME GUSTS IN
THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE PERIOD...BUT THEY SHOULD BE
SPORADIC AND NOT PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL WEAKEN AS WE MOVE INTO LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING NORTH OF
THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH MOVES NE OF THE REGION...ANOTHER BRIEF
CAD PATTERN IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
PRECIP AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FOR TUES AD WED...HOWEVER EXACT
TIMING REMAINS CHALLENGING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JPT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281447
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
947 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SOME
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING...YET MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL SCT TO OVC WITH MID LVL CIGS. ANY ADDITIONAL
CLEARING SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS DEWPTS SLOWLY CREEP UP AND THE WEDGE
PATTERN STRENGTHENS TO OUR NE. I LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
OVER MOST OF THE CWFA AS MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO WARM WITH
THESE CAD REGIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
AREAS. MOST OF THOSE AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. I KEEP THINGS DRY THRU 00Z SUN WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM
THE SOUTH BEYOND THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 245 AM EST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER
THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO IT ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. HEIGHTS RILL RISE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIE OF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW DIVES S ALONG THE
CA COAST...RESULTING IN A FLAT RIDGE FORM TN TO THE CAROLINAS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN A WEDGE CONFIGURATIONS. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER THIS WEDGE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ONLY OUR NON MOUNTAIN GA
COUNTIES WILL BE IN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. WITH UPGLIDE RATHER
WEAK...QPF IS EXPECTED OT BE RATHER LIGHT...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
IN COOL NE FLOW UNDER CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL IN RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WHILE IT APPEARS RATHER CERTAIN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING...THE AND EXTENT OF ANY ICING IS
STILL NOT AT ALL CERTAIN. WHILE THE NAM REMAINS QUITE WET...
DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF OF AROUND .25 INCH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF SYSTEM IS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING...AS THE
NAM TYPICALLY DOES A REASONABLE JOB IN HANDLING MOISTURE-RETURN/
UPGLIDE PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...EVEN A PREFECT PROG OF THE NAM...
WHICH CAN PROBABLY BE VIEWED AS A /WORST-CASE/ SCENARIO WOULD
SUGGEST ANY ICING WOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY AT ADVISORY-LEVELS...EVEN IF
SOME LOCATIONS SEE AN ALL-FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AND THIS SEEMS FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...AS THE MODELS WARM/MOISTEN THE AIR MASS QUITE QUICKLY
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA...AND A SURFACE PATTERN THAT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG HYBRID CAD. IN FACT...
IT/S INTERESTING THAT THE NAM...WHICH ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT TO
HAVE A SUPERIOR HANDLE ON THE DECAYING CAD AIR MASS THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT ACTUALLY THE WARMEST MODEL. EVEN SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL HOLD ON TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...WHICH WOULD SEE MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-85 EXPERIENCING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA.
STILL...WITH UNCERTAINTY LINGERING REGARDING QPF AND THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF COLD AIR...HAVE OPTED TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY
ATTM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT/
MONDAY TIME FRAME WAS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS
FORCING FOR UVV/PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...
UPGLIDE WILL SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY SUN AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO W-NW...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THUS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT...AND
INDEED MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS VIRTUALLY NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING
THIS TIME. DELAY OF COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 60S EXPECTED ON MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...
1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF MONDAY...
WHICH WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HYBRID CAD EVENT AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR UPGLIDE PRECIP BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/FHILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET
REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...
     BUT BEFORE DAYBREAK A MODEL BLEND WOULD BRING AN MVFR CIG TO THE
FIELD. THE CIG WOULD RISE TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY...REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A VSBY RESTRICTION.
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH THE FORECAST AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM WEST WILL OCCUR EARLY
IN THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE BRING MVFR CIGS TO KAVL AND THE SC SITES
BEFORE DAWN...WITH LOW VFR AT KHKY. BY MIDDAY THE SC SITES AND KAVL
RISE TO LOW VFR...WHILE KHKY FALLS TO MVFR. THE KHKY CIG RISES TO
LOW VFR THIS EVENING...WHILE KAVL AND KAND FALL TO MVFR. MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH OVER COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AT KAND IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE AT FOOTHILLS SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAVL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SE.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE
WEDGE. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL FRONTS CROSS
THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ON RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JPT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 281447
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
947 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SOME
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING...YET MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL SCT TO OVC WITH MID LVL CIGS. ANY ADDITIONAL
CLEARING SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS DEWPTS SLOWLY CREEP UP AND THE WEDGE
PATTERN STRENGTHENS TO OUR NE. I LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
OVER MOST OF THE CWFA AS MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO WARM WITH
THESE CAD REGIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
AREAS. MOST OF THOSE AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. I KEEP THINGS DRY THRU 00Z SUN WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM
THE SOUTH BEYOND THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 245 AM EST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER
THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO IT ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. HEIGHTS RILL RISE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIE OF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW DIVES S ALONG THE
CA COAST...RESULTING IN A FLAT RIDGE FORM TN TO THE CAROLINAS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN A WEDGE CONFIGURATIONS. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER THIS WEDGE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ONLY OUR NON MOUNTAIN GA
COUNTIES WILL BE IN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. WITH UPGLIDE RATHER
WEAK...QPF IS EXPECTED OT BE RATHER LIGHT...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
IN COOL NE FLOW UNDER CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL IN RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WHILE IT APPEARS RATHER CERTAIN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING...THE AND EXTENT OF ANY ICING IS
STILL NOT AT ALL CERTAIN. WHILE THE NAM REMAINS QUITE WET...
DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF OF AROUND .25 INCH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF SYSTEM IS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING...AS THE
NAM TYPICALLY DOES A REASONABLE JOB IN HANDLING MOISTURE-RETURN/
UPGLIDE PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...EVEN A PREFECT PROG OF THE NAM...
WHICH CAN PROBABLY BE VIEWED AS A /WORST-CASE/ SCENARIO WOULD
SUGGEST ANY ICING WOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY AT ADVISORY-LEVELS...EVEN IF
SOME LOCATIONS SEE AN ALL-FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AND THIS SEEMS FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...AS THE MODELS WARM/MOISTEN THE AIR MASS QUITE QUICKLY
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA...AND A SURFACE PATTERN THAT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG HYBRID CAD. IN FACT...
IT/S INTERESTING THAT THE NAM...WHICH ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT TO
HAVE A SUPERIOR HANDLE ON THE DECAYING CAD AIR MASS THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT ACTUALLY THE WARMEST MODEL. EVEN SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL HOLD ON TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...WHICH WOULD SEE MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-85 EXPERIENCING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA.
STILL...WITH UNCERTAINTY LINGERING REGARDING QPF AND THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF COLD AIR...HAVE OPTED TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY
ATTM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT/
MONDAY TIME FRAME WAS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS
FORCING FOR UVV/PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...
UPGLIDE WILL SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY SUN AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO W-NW...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THUS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT...AND
INDEED MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS VIRTUALLY NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING
THIS TIME. DELAY OF COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 60S EXPECTED ON MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...
1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF MONDAY...
WHICH WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HYBRID CAD EVENT AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR UPGLIDE PRECIP BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/FHILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET
REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...
     BUT BEFORE DAYBREAK A MODEL BLEND WOULD BRING AN MVFR CIG TO THE
FIELD. THE CIG WOULD RISE TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY...REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A VSBY RESTRICTION.
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH THE FORECAST AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM WEST WILL OCCUR EARLY
IN THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE BRING MVFR CIGS TO KAVL AND THE SC SITES
BEFORE DAWN...WITH LOW VFR AT KHKY. BY MIDDAY THE SC SITES AND KAVL
RISE TO LOW VFR...WHILE KHKY FALLS TO MVFR. THE KHKY CIG RISES TO
LOW VFR THIS EVENING...WHILE KAVL AND KAND FALL TO MVFR. MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH OVER COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AT KAND IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE AT FOOTHILLS SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAVL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SE.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE
WEDGE. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL FRONTS CROSS
THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ON RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JPT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281447
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
947 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SOME
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING...YET MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL SCT TO OVC WITH MID LVL CIGS. ANY ADDITIONAL
CLEARING SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS DEWPTS SLOWLY CREEP UP AND THE WEDGE
PATTERN STRENGTHENS TO OUR NE. I LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
OVER MOST OF THE CWFA AS MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO WARM WITH
THESE CAD REGIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
AREAS. MOST OF THOSE AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. I KEEP THINGS DRY THRU 00Z SUN WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM
THE SOUTH BEYOND THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 245 AM EST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER
THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO IT ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. HEIGHTS RILL RISE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIE OF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW DIVES S ALONG THE
CA COAST...RESULTING IN A FLAT RIDGE FORM TN TO THE CAROLINAS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN A WEDGE CONFIGURATIONS. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER THIS WEDGE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ONLY OUR NON MOUNTAIN GA
COUNTIES WILL BE IN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. WITH UPGLIDE RATHER
WEAK...QPF IS EXPECTED OT BE RATHER LIGHT...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
IN COOL NE FLOW UNDER CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL IN RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WHILE IT APPEARS RATHER CERTAIN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING...THE AND EXTENT OF ANY ICING IS
STILL NOT AT ALL CERTAIN. WHILE THE NAM REMAINS QUITE WET...
DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF OF AROUND .25 INCH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF SYSTEM IS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING...AS THE
NAM TYPICALLY DOES A REASONABLE JOB IN HANDLING MOISTURE-RETURN/
UPGLIDE PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...EVEN A PREFECT PROG OF THE NAM...
WHICH CAN PROBABLY BE VIEWED AS A /WORST-CASE/ SCENARIO WOULD
SUGGEST ANY ICING WOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY AT ADVISORY-LEVELS...EVEN IF
SOME LOCATIONS SEE AN ALL-FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AND THIS SEEMS FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...AS THE MODELS WARM/MOISTEN THE AIR MASS QUITE QUICKLY
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA...AND A SURFACE PATTERN THAT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG HYBRID CAD. IN FACT...
IT/S INTERESTING THAT THE NAM...WHICH ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT TO
HAVE A SUPERIOR HANDLE ON THE DECAYING CAD AIR MASS THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT ACTUALLY THE WARMEST MODEL. EVEN SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL HOLD ON TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...WHICH WOULD SEE MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-85 EXPERIENCING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA.
STILL...WITH UNCERTAINTY LINGERING REGARDING QPF AND THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF COLD AIR...HAVE OPTED TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY
ATTM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT/
MONDAY TIME FRAME WAS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS
FORCING FOR UVV/PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...
UPGLIDE WILL SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY SUN AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO W-NW...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THUS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT...AND
INDEED MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS VIRTUALLY NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING
THIS TIME. DELAY OF COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 60S EXPECTED ON MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...
1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF MONDAY...
WHICH WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HYBRID CAD EVENT AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR UPGLIDE PRECIP BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/FHILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET
REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...
     BUT BEFORE DAYBREAK A MODEL BLEND WOULD BRING AN MVFR CIG TO THE
FIELD. THE CIG WOULD RISE TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY...REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A VSBY RESTRICTION.
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH THE FORECAST AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM WEST WILL OCCUR EARLY
IN THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE BRING MVFR CIGS TO KAVL AND THE SC SITES
BEFORE DAWN...WITH LOW VFR AT KHKY. BY MIDDAY THE SC SITES AND KAVL
RISE TO LOW VFR...WHILE KHKY FALLS TO MVFR. THE KHKY CIG RISES TO
LOW VFR THIS EVENING...WHILE KAVL AND KAND FALL TO MVFR. MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH OVER COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AT KAND IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE AT FOOTHILLS SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAVL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SE.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE
WEDGE. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL FRONTS CROSS
THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ON RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JPT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281447
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
947 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SOME
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING...YET MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL SCT TO OVC WITH MID LVL CIGS. ANY ADDITIONAL
CLEARING SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS DEWPTS SLOWLY CREEP UP AND THE WEDGE
PATTERN STRENGTHENS TO OUR NE. I LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
OVER MOST OF THE CWFA AS MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO WARM WITH
THESE CAD REGIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
AREAS. MOST OF THOSE AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. I KEEP THINGS DRY THRU 00Z SUN WITH POPS RAMPING UP FROM
THE SOUTH BEYOND THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 245 AM EST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER
THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO IT ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. HEIGHTS RILL RISE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIE OF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW DIVES S ALONG THE
CA COAST...RESULTING IN A FLAT RIDGE FORM TN TO THE CAROLINAS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN A WEDGE CONFIGURATIONS. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER THIS WEDGE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ONLY OUR NON MOUNTAIN GA
COUNTIES WILL BE IN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. WITH UPGLIDE RATHER
WEAK...QPF IS EXPECTED OT BE RATHER LIGHT...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
IN COOL NE FLOW UNDER CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL IN RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WHILE IT APPEARS RATHER CERTAIN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING...THE AND EXTENT OF ANY ICING IS
STILL NOT AT ALL CERTAIN. WHILE THE NAM REMAINS QUITE WET...
DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF OF AROUND .25 INCH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF SYSTEM IS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING...AS THE
NAM TYPICALLY DOES A REASONABLE JOB IN HANDLING MOISTURE-RETURN/
UPGLIDE PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...EVEN A PREFECT PROG OF THE NAM...
WHICH CAN PROBABLY BE VIEWED AS A /WORST-CASE/ SCENARIO WOULD
SUGGEST ANY ICING WOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY AT ADVISORY-LEVELS...EVEN IF
SOME LOCATIONS SEE AN ALL-FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AND THIS SEEMS FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...AS THE MODELS WARM/MOISTEN THE AIR MASS QUITE QUICKLY
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA...AND A SURFACE PATTERN THAT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG HYBRID CAD. IN FACT...
IT/S INTERESTING THAT THE NAM...WHICH ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT TO
HAVE A SUPERIOR HANDLE ON THE DECAYING CAD AIR MASS THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT ACTUALLY THE WARMEST MODEL. EVEN SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL HOLD ON TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...WHICH WOULD SEE MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-85 EXPERIENCING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA.
STILL...WITH UNCERTAINTY LINGERING REGARDING QPF AND THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF COLD AIR...HAVE OPTED TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY
ATTM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT/
MONDAY TIME FRAME WAS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS
FORCING FOR UVV/PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...
UPGLIDE WILL SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY SUN AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO W-NW...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THUS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT...AND
INDEED MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS VIRTUALLY NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING
THIS TIME. DELAY OF COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 60S EXPECTED ON MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...
1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF MONDAY...
WHICH WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HYBRID CAD EVENT AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR UPGLIDE PRECIP BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/FHILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET
REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...
     BUT BEFORE DAYBREAK A MODEL BLEND WOULD BRING AN MVFR CIG TO THE
FIELD. THE CIG WOULD RISE TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY...REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A VSBY RESTRICTION.
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH THE FORECAST AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM WEST WILL OCCUR EARLY
IN THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE BRING MVFR CIGS TO KAVL AND THE SC SITES
BEFORE DAWN...WITH LOW VFR AT KHKY. BY MIDDAY THE SC SITES AND KAVL
RISE TO LOW VFR...WHILE KHKY FALLS TO MVFR. THE KHKY CIG RISES TO
LOW VFR THIS EVENING...WHILE KAVL AND KAND FALL TO MVFR. MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH OVER COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AT KAND IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE AT FOOTHILLS SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAVL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SE.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE
WEDGE. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL FRONTS CROSS
THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ON RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JPT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 281113
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
613 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 245 AM EST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER
THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO IT ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. HEIGHTS RILL RISE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIE OF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW DIVES S ALONG THE
CA COAST...RESULTING IN A FLAT RIDGE FORM TN TO THE CAROLINAS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN A WEDGE CONFIGURATIONS. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER THIS WEDGE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ONLY OUR NON MOUNTAIN GA
COUNTIES WILL BE IN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. WITH UPGLIDE RATHER
WEAK...QPF IS EXPECTED OT BE RATHER LIGHT...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
IN COOL NE FLOW UNDER CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL IN RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WHILE IT APPEARS RATHER CERTAIN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING...THE AND EXTENT OF ANY ICING IS
STILL NOT AT ALL CERTAIN. WHILE THE NAM REMAINS QUITE WET...
DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF OF AROUND .25 INCH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF SYSTEM IS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING...AS THE
NAM TYPICALLY DOES A REASONABLE JOB IN HANDLING MOISTURE-RETURN/
UPGLIDE PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...EVEN A PREFECT PROG OF THE NAM...
WHICH CAN PROBABLY BE VIEWED AS A /WORST-CASE/ SCENARIO WOULD
SUGGEST ANY ICING WOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY AT ADVISORY-LEVELS...EVEN IF
SOME LOCATIONS SEE AN ALL-FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AND THIS SEEMS FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...AS THE MODELS WARM/MOISTEN THE AIR MASS QUITE QUICKLY
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA...AND A SURFACE PATTERN THAT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG HYBRID CAD. IN FACT...
IT/S INTERESTING THAT THE NAM...WHICH ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT TO
HAVE A SUPERIOR HANDLE ON THE DECAYING CAD AIR MASS THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT ACTUALLY THE WARMEST MODEL. EVEN SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL HOLD ON TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...WHICH WOULD SEE MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-85 EXPERIENCING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA.
STILL...WITH UNCERTAINTY LINGERING REGARDING QPF AND THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF COLD AIR...HAVE OPTED TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY
ATTM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT/
MONDAY TIME FRAME WAS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS
FORCING FOR UVV/PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...
UPGLIDE WILL SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY SUN AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO W-NW...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THUS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT...AND
INDEED MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS VIRTUALLY NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING
THIS TIME. DELAY OF COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 60S EXPECTED ON MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...
1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF MONDAY...
WHICH WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HYBRID CAD EVENT AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR UPGLIDE PRECIP BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/FHILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET
REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...
     BUT BEFORE DAYBREAK A MODEL BLEND WOULD BRING AN MVFR CIG TO THE
FIELD. THE CIG WOULD RISE TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY...REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A VSBY RESTRICTION.
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH THE FORECAST AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM WEST WILL OCCUR EARLY
IN THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE BRING MVFR CIGS TO KAVL AND THE SC SITES
BEFORE DAWN...WITH LOW VFR AT KHKY. BY MIDDAY THE SC SITES AND KAVL
RISE TO LOW VFR...WHILE KHKY FALLS TO MVFR. THE KHKY CIG RISES TO
LOW VFR THIS EVENING...WHILE KAVL AND KAND FALL TO MVFR. MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH OVER COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AT KAND IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE AT FOOTHILLS SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAVL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SE.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE
WEDGE. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL FRONTS CROSS
THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ON RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 281113
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
613 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 245 AM EST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER
THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO IT ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. HEIGHTS RILL RISE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIE OF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW DIVES S ALONG THE
CA COAST...RESULTING IN A FLAT RIDGE FORM TN TO THE CAROLINAS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN A WEDGE CONFIGURATIONS. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER THIS WEDGE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ONLY OUR NON MOUNTAIN GA
COUNTIES WILL BE IN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. WITH UPGLIDE RATHER
WEAK...QPF IS EXPECTED OT BE RATHER LIGHT...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
IN COOL NE FLOW UNDER CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL IN RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WHILE IT APPEARS RATHER CERTAIN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING...THE AND EXTENT OF ANY ICING IS
STILL NOT AT ALL CERTAIN. WHILE THE NAM REMAINS QUITE WET...
DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF OF AROUND .25 INCH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF SYSTEM IS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING...AS THE
NAM TYPICALLY DOES A REASONABLE JOB IN HANDLING MOISTURE-RETURN/
UPGLIDE PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...EVEN A PREFECT PROG OF THE NAM...
WHICH CAN PROBABLY BE VIEWED AS A /WORST-CASE/ SCENARIO WOULD
SUGGEST ANY ICING WOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY AT ADVISORY-LEVELS...EVEN IF
SOME LOCATIONS SEE AN ALL-FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AND THIS SEEMS FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...AS THE MODELS WARM/MOISTEN THE AIR MASS QUITE QUICKLY
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA...AND A SURFACE PATTERN THAT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG HYBRID CAD. IN FACT...
IT/S INTERESTING THAT THE NAM...WHICH ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT TO
HAVE A SUPERIOR HANDLE ON THE DECAYING CAD AIR MASS THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT ACTUALLY THE WARMEST MODEL. EVEN SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL HOLD ON TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...WHICH WOULD SEE MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-85 EXPERIENCING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA.
STILL...WITH UNCERTAINTY LINGERING REGARDING QPF AND THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF COLD AIR...HAVE OPTED TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY
ATTM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT/
MONDAY TIME FRAME WAS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS
FORCING FOR UVV/PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...
UPGLIDE WILL SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY SUN AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO W-NW...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THUS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT...AND
INDEED MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS VIRTUALLY NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING
THIS TIME. DELAY OF COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 60S EXPECTED ON MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...
1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF MONDAY...
WHICH WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HYBRID CAD EVENT AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR UPGLIDE PRECIP BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/FHILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET
REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...
     BUT BEFORE DAYBREAK A MODEL BLEND WOULD BRING AN MVFR CIG TO THE
FIELD. THE CIG WOULD RISE TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY...REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A VSBY RESTRICTION.
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH THE FORECAST AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM WEST WILL OCCUR EARLY
IN THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE BRING MVFR CIGS TO KAVL AND THE SC SITES
BEFORE DAWN...WITH LOW VFR AT KHKY. BY MIDDAY THE SC SITES AND KAVL
RISE TO LOW VFR...WHILE KHKY FALLS TO MVFR. THE KHKY CIG RISES TO
LOW VFR THIS EVENING...WHILE KAVL AND KAND FALL TO MVFR. MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH OVER COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AT KAND IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE AT FOOTHILLS SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAVL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SE.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE
WEDGE. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL FRONTS CROSS
THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ON RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 281113
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
613 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 245 AM EST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER
THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO IT ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. HEIGHTS RILL RISE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIE OF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW DIVES S ALONG THE
CA COAST...RESULTING IN A FLAT RIDGE FORM TN TO THE CAROLINAS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN A WEDGE CONFIGURATIONS. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER THIS WEDGE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ONLY OUR NON MOUNTAIN GA
COUNTIES WILL BE IN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. WITH UPGLIDE RATHER
WEAK...QPF IS EXPECTED OT BE RATHER LIGHT...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
IN COOL NE FLOW UNDER CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL IN RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WHILE IT APPEARS RATHER CERTAIN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING...THE AND EXTENT OF ANY ICING IS
STILL NOT AT ALL CERTAIN. WHILE THE NAM REMAINS QUITE WET...
DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF OF AROUND .25 INCH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF SYSTEM IS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING...AS THE
NAM TYPICALLY DOES A REASONABLE JOB IN HANDLING MOISTURE-RETURN/
UPGLIDE PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...EVEN A PREFECT PROG OF THE NAM...
WHICH CAN PROBABLY BE VIEWED AS A /WORST-CASE/ SCENARIO WOULD
SUGGEST ANY ICING WOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY AT ADVISORY-LEVELS...EVEN IF
SOME LOCATIONS SEE AN ALL-FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AND THIS SEEMS FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...AS THE MODELS WARM/MOISTEN THE AIR MASS QUITE QUICKLY
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA...AND A SURFACE PATTERN THAT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG HYBRID CAD. IN FACT...
IT/S INTERESTING THAT THE NAM...WHICH ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT TO
HAVE A SUPERIOR HANDLE ON THE DECAYING CAD AIR MASS THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT ACTUALLY THE WARMEST MODEL. EVEN SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL HOLD ON TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...WHICH WOULD SEE MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-85 EXPERIENCING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA.
STILL...WITH UNCERTAINTY LINGERING REGARDING QPF AND THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF COLD AIR...HAVE OPTED TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY
ATTM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT/
MONDAY TIME FRAME WAS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS
FORCING FOR UVV/PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...
UPGLIDE WILL SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY SUN AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO W-NW...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THUS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT...AND
INDEED MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS VIRTUALLY NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING
THIS TIME. DELAY OF COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 60S EXPECTED ON MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...
1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF MONDAY...
WHICH WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HYBRID CAD EVENT AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR UPGLIDE PRECIP BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/FHILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET
REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...
     BUT BEFORE DAYBREAK A MODEL BLEND WOULD BRING AN MVFR CIG TO THE
FIELD. THE CIG WOULD RISE TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY...REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A VSBY RESTRICTION.
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH THE FORECAST AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM WEST WILL OCCUR EARLY
IN THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE BRING MVFR CIGS TO KAVL AND THE SC SITES
BEFORE DAWN...WITH LOW VFR AT KHKY. BY MIDDAY THE SC SITES AND KAVL
RISE TO LOW VFR...WHILE KHKY FALLS TO MVFR. THE KHKY CIG RISES TO
LOW VFR THIS EVENING...WHILE KAVL AND KAND FALL TO MVFR. MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH OVER COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AT KAND IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE AT FOOTHILLS SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAVL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SE.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE
WEDGE. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL FRONTS CROSS
THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ON RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281113
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
613 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 245 AM EST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER
THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO IT ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. HEIGHTS RILL RISE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIE OF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW DIVES S ALONG THE
CA COAST...RESULTING IN A FLAT RIDGE FORM TN TO THE CAROLINAS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN A WEDGE CONFIGURATIONS. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER THIS WEDGE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ONLY OUR NON MOUNTAIN GA
COUNTIES WILL BE IN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. WITH UPGLIDE RATHER
WEAK...QPF IS EXPECTED OT BE RATHER LIGHT...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
IN COOL NE FLOW UNDER CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL IN RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WHILE IT APPEARS RATHER CERTAIN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING...THE AND EXTENT OF ANY ICING IS
STILL NOT AT ALL CERTAIN. WHILE THE NAM REMAINS QUITE WET...
DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF OF AROUND .25 INCH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF SYSTEM IS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING...AS THE
NAM TYPICALLY DOES A REASONABLE JOB IN HANDLING MOISTURE-RETURN/
UPGLIDE PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...EVEN A PREFECT PROG OF THE NAM...
WHICH CAN PROBABLY BE VIEWED AS A /WORST-CASE/ SCENARIO WOULD
SUGGEST ANY ICING WOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY AT ADVISORY-LEVELS...EVEN IF
SOME LOCATIONS SEE AN ALL-FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AND THIS SEEMS FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...AS THE MODELS WARM/MOISTEN THE AIR MASS QUITE QUICKLY
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA...AND A SURFACE PATTERN THAT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG HYBRID CAD. IN FACT...
IT/S INTERESTING THAT THE NAM...WHICH ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT TO
HAVE A SUPERIOR HANDLE ON THE DECAYING CAD AIR MASS THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT ACTUALLY THE WARMEST MODEL. EVEN SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL HOLD ON TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...WHICH WOULD SEE MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-85 EXPERIENCING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA.
STILL...WITH UNCERTAINTY LINGERING REGARDING QPF AND THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF COLD AIR...HAVE OPTED TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY
ATTM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT/
MONDAY TIME FRAME WAS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS
FORCING FOR UVV/PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...
UPGLIDE WILL SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY SUN AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO W-NW...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THUS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT...AND
INDEED MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS VIRTUALLY NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING
THIS TIME. DELAY OF COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 60S EXPECTED ON MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...
1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF MONDAY...
WHICH WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HYBRID CAD EVENT AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR UPGLIDE PRECIP BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/FHILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET
REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...
     BUT BEFORE DAYBREAK A MODEL BLEND WOULD BRING AN MVFR CIG TO THE
FIELD. THE CIG WOULD RISE TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY...REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A VSBY RESTRICTION.
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH THE FORECAST AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM WEST WILL OCCUR EARLY
IN THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE BRING MVFR CIGS TO KAVL AND THE SC SITES
BEFORE DAWN...WITH LOW VFR AT KHKY. BY MIDDAY THE SC SITES AND KAVL
RISE TO LOW VFR...WHILE KHKY FALLS TO MVFR. THE KHKY CIG RISES TO
LOW VFR THIS EVENING...WHILE KAVL AND KAND FALL TO MVFR. MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH OVER COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AT KAND IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE AT FOOTHILLS SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAVL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SE.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE
WEDGE. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL FRONTS CROSS
THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ON RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 280843
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 245 AM EST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER
THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO IT ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. HEIGHTS RILL RISE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIE OF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW DIVES S ALONG THE
CA COAST...RESULTING IN A FLAT RIDGE FORM TN TO THE CAROLINAS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN A WEDGE CONFIGURATIONS. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER THIS WEDGE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ONLY OUR NON MOUNTAIN GA
COUNTIES WILL BE IN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. WITH UPGLIDE RATHER
WEAK...QPF IS EXPECTED OT BE RATHER LIGHT...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
IN COOL NE FLOW UNDER CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL IN RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WHILE IT APPEARS RATHER CERTAIN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING...THE AND EXTENT OF ANY ICING IS
STILL NOT AT ALL CERTAIN. WHILE THE NAM REMAINS QUITE WET...
DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF OF AROUND .25 INCH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF SYSTEM IS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING...AS THE
NAM TYPICALLY DOES A REASONABLE JOB IN HANDLING MOISTURE-RETURN/
UPGLIDE PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...EVEN A PREFECT PROG OF THE NAM...
WHICH CAN PROBABLY BE VIEWED AS A /WORST-CASE/ SCENARIO WOULD
SUGGEST ANY ICING WOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY AT ADVISORY-LEVELS...EVEN IF
SOME LOCATIONS SEE AN ALL-FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AND THIS SEEMS FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...AS THE MODELS WARM/MOISTEN THE AIR MASS QUITE QUICKLY
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA...AND A SURFACE PATTERN THAT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG HYBRID CAD. IN FACT...
IT/S INTERESTING THAT THE NAM...WHICH ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT TO
HAVE A SUPERIOR HANDLE ON THE DECAYING CAD AIR MASS THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT ACTUALLY THE WARMEST MODEL. EVEN SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL HOLD ON TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...WHICH WOULD SEE MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-85 EXPERIENCING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA.
STILL...WITH UNCERTAINTY LINGERING REGARDING QPF AND THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF COLD AIR...HAVE OPTED TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY
ATTM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT/
MONDAY TIME FRAME WAS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS
FORCING FOR UVV/PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...
UPGLIDE WILL SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY SUN AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO W-NW...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THUS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT...AND
INDEED MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS VIRTUALLY NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING
THIS TIME. DELAY OF COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 60S EXPECTED ON MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...
1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF MONDAY...
WHICH WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HYBRID CAD EVENT AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR UPGLIDE PRECIP BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/FHILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET
REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...
     BUT BEFORE DAYBREAK A MODEL BLEND WOULD BRING AN MVFR CIG TO THE
FIELD. THE CIG WOULD RISE TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY...REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A VSBY RESTRICTION.
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH THE FORECAST AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM WEST WILL OCCUR EARLY
IN THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE BRING MVFR CIGS TO KAVL AND THE SC SITES
BEFORE DAWN...WITH LOW VFR AT KHKY. BY MIDDAY THE SC SITES AND KAVL
RISE TO LOW VFR...WHILE KHKY FALLS TO MVFR. THE KHKY CIG RISES TO
LOW VFR THIS EVENING...WHILE KAVL AND KAND FALL TO MVFR. MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH OVER COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AT KAND IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE AT FOOTHILLS SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAVL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SE.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE
WEDGE. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL FRONTS CROSS
THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ON RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 280843
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 245 AM EST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER
THE CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO IT ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. HEIGHTS RILL RISE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIE OF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW DIVES S ALONG THE
CA COAST...RESULTING IN A FLAT RIDGE FORM TN TO THE CAROLINAS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN A WEDGE CONFIGURATIONS. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER THIS WEDGE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ONLY OUR NON MOUNTAIN GA
COUNTIES WILL BE IN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. WITH UPGLIDE RATHER
WEAK...QPF IS EXPECTED OT BE RATHER LIGHT...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
IN COOL NE FLOW UNDER CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL IN RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WHILE IT APPEARS RATHER CERTAIN THAT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING...THE AND EXTENT OF ANY ICING IS
STILL NOT AT ALL CERTAIN. WHILE THE NAM REMAINS QUITE WET...
DEPICTING WIDESPREAD QPF OF AROUND .25 INCH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF SYSTEM IS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING...AS THE
NAM TYPICALLY DOES A REASONABLE JOB IN HANDLING MOISTURE-RETURN/
UPGLIDE PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...EVEN A PREFECT PROG OF THE NAM...
WHICH CAN PROBABLY BE VIEWED AS A /WORST-CASE/ SCENARIO WOULD
SUGGEST ANY ICING WOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY AT ADVISORY-LEVELS...EVEN IF
SOME LOCATIONS SEE AN ALL-FREEZING RAIN EVENT. AND THIS SEEMS FAIRLY
UNLIKELY...AS THE MODELS WARM/MOISTEN THE AIR MASS QUITE QUICKLY
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA...AND A SURFACE PATTERN THAT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG HYBRID CAD. IN FACT...
IT/S INTERESTING THAT THE NAM...WHICH ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT TO
HAVE A SUPERIOR HANDLE ON THE DECAYING CAD AIR MASS THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT ACTUALLY THE WARMEST MODEL. EVEN SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL HOLD ON TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER
THAN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...WHICH WOULD SEE MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-85 EXPERIENCING AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA.
STILL...WITH UNCERTAINTY LINGERING REGARDING QPF AND THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF COLD AIR...HAVE OPTED TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY
ATTM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT/
MONDAY TIME FRAME WAS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS
FORCING FOR UVV/PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...
UPGLIDE WILL SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY SUN AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO W-NW...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THUS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT...AND
INDEED MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS VIRTUALLY NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS DURING
THIS TIME. DELAY OF COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 60S EXPECTED ON MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...
1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SEND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF MONDAY...
WHICH WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HYBRID CAD EVENT AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR UPGLIDE PRECIP BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/FHILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET
REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...
     BUT BEFORE DAYBREAK A MODEL BLEND WOULD BRING AN MVFR CIG TO THE
FIELD. THE CIG WOULD RISE TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY...REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A VSBY RESTRICTION.
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH THE FORECAST AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM WEST WILL OCCUR EARLY
IN THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE BRING MVFR CIGS TO KAVL AND THE SC SITES
BEFORE DAWN...WITH LOW VFR AT KHKY. BY MIDDAY THE SC SITES AND KAVL
RISE TO LOW VFR...WHILE KHKY FALLS TO MVFR. THE KHKY CIG RISES TO
LOW VFR THIS EVENING...WHILE KAVL AND KAND FALL TO MVFR. MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH OVER COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AT KAND IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE AT FOOTHILLS SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAVL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SE.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE
WEDGE. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL FRONTS CROSS
THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ON RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 280515
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1215 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRONTS WAKE. THE HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM SATLLITE IMAGERY.

930 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE YET TO FORM OVER THE CWFA OR EVEN
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM WITHIN THE BUILDING WEDGE. NEWEST GUIDANCE
/00Z NAM/ STILL SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CLOUD LAYER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO THOUGH SKIES HAVE BEEN KEPT CLEARER THIS EVENING...AN
INCREASING TREND LATER STILL IS APPROPRIATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING
INTO THE PIEDMONT ON THE WEDGE FLOW AS DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
TRENDING DOWNWARD. DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL PRETTY LARGE AND PROFILES
NOT CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT IF ANYWHERE THE
SRN END OF THE CWFA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS.
THIS AREA IS STILL SEEING THE LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...THAT IS...THE WEDGE HAS NOT YET MOVED IN THERE. REVISED
TEMPS THRU MRNG BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS
PRODUCT...BUT VALUES ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
EXPECTATIONS.

AT 200 PM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY SUNRISE...THE HIGH WILL HAVE
WEDGED SW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. ALSO...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW H850...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LATER TEMPS COOL.

ON SAT...THE WEDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HENCE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY DAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE MID 40S
OVER PARTS OF NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
REMAIN CHILLY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE SW MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OUTSIDE THE WEDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HYBRID COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THE GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES THAT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
SAT NITE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ABOVE THE
COLD DOME. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LIFT GETS GOING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST...WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FASTER...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST. AGAIN...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND FOR
TIMING AS EVEN THE SLOWER GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NITE. THEREFORE...END UP WITH CHC
POP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NE GA...MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND THE
SRN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. NOW FOR
TEMPS...THE NAM HAS WARMED...BUT STILL HAS BELOW FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT ONSET. THE GFS IS COLDER EVEN WITH THE
SLOWER ONSET...SHOWING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE
QUICKLY WARMING AFTER ONSET. ONCE AGAIN USED A BLEND TO DEVELOP THE
TEMP FORECAST WHICH INDICATES FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT ONSET THEN
QUICKLY WARMING WITH ALL LIQUID BY NOON SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALL AREAS AS THAT COULD BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP CHARACTER EARLY ON. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT LEADING TO ONLY A VERY LIGHT ACCRETION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AT ONSET. THAT SAID...COLD TEMPS COULD
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HIGHER ACCRETIONS
COULD DEVELOP. LOWS SAT NITE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS
AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE IN THE CAD REGION.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUN NITE AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THRU THE NITE HOWEVER. THE CAD ERODES MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIP CHC TAPERS OFF EVEN
FURTHER TO SLIGHT CHC OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THAT SAID...PRECIP CHC
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE MTNS SUN NITE AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT. TEMPS REMAIN WARM ENUF ALL AREAS FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID
THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS SUN NITE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TUE-WED...AS A
TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND
PROGRESS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A 1032 MB
HIGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON INCREASING ISENT LIFT THRUT THE LLVLS...WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING IN FROM THE SW ATOP A DEVELOPING WEDGE. THE MID-UPR LVLS
LOOK FAIRLY NEUTRAL FOR SUPPORTING UVM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
850 MB WAA...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...I THINK HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY
POPS LOOKS GOOD BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. ANY
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/DRIZZLE SHUD HELP LOCK IN AN IN SITU COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE...KEEPING TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT FROM THE NW.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS CATCHING UP BUT STILL SLOWER. GOING WITH THE WPC PREFERENCE
(SLOWER THAN GFS)...WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM (UP TO 15-20 DEG JUMP FROM
TUESDAY/S TEMPS) UNDER DECENT SWLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY (OR EVENING IF ECMWF IS RIGHT)...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INSTBY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. BUT SEVERE THREAT SHUD BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGER CONCERN
MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF
SOMEWHAT FROM PREV RUNS. STILL PLAN TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEG
ON THURSDAY...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP GIVE WAY TO NWLY CAA FLOW. THE 850 MB
TEMPS WILL FALL SUCH THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
ON BACK EDGE OF THE THE PRECIP SHIELD. SOME MINOR ACCUMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY
POLAR HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE NW...RETURNING OUR AREA TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S FRIDAY
WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...
     BUT BEFORE DAYBREAK A MODEL BLEND WOULD BRING AN MVFR CIG TO THE
FIELD. THE CIG WOULD RISE TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY...REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A VSBY RESTRICTION.
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH THE FORECAST AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM WEST WILL OCCUR EARLY
IN THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE BRING MVFR CIGS TO KAVL AND THE SC SITES
BEFORE DAWN...WITH LOW VFR AT KHKY. BY MIDDAY THE SC SITES AND KAVL
RISE TO LOW VFR...WHILE KHKY FALLS TO MVFR. THE KHKY CIG RISES TO
LOW VFR THIS EVENING...WHILE KAVL AND KAND FALL TO MVFR. MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH OVER COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AT KAND IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE AT FOOTHILLS SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAVL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SE.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE
WEDGE. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL FRONTS CROSS
THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ON RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 280515
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1215 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRONTS WAKE. THE HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM SATLLITE IMAGERY.

930 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE YET TO FORM OVER THE CWFA OR EVEN
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM WITHIN THE BUILDING WEDGE. NEWEST GUIDANCE
/00Z NAM/ STILL SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CLOUD LAYER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO THOUGH SKIES HAVE BEEN KEPT CLEARER THIS EVENING...AN
INCREASING TREND LATER STILL IS APPROPRIATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING
INTO THE PIEDMONT ON THE WEDGE FLOW AS DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
TRENDING DOWNWARD. DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL PRETTY LARGE AND PROFILES
NOT CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT IF ANYWHERE THE
SRN END OF THE CWFA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS.
THIS AREA IS STILL SEEING THE LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...THAT IS...THE WEDGE HAS NOT YET MOVED IN THERE. REVISED
TEMPS THRU MRNG BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS
PRODUCT...BUT VALUES ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
EXPECTATIONS.

AT 200 PM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY SUNRISE...THE HIGH WILL HAVE
WEDGED SW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. ALSO...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW H850...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LATER TEMPS COOL.

ON SAT...THE WEDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HENCE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY DAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE MID 40S
OVER PARTS OF NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
REMAIN CHILLY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE SW MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OUTSIDE THE WEDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HYBRID COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THE GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES THAT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
SAT NITE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ABOVE THE
COLD DOME. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LIFT GETS GOING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST...WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FASTER...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST. AGAIN...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND FOR
TIMING AS EVEN THE SLOWER GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NITE. THEREFORE...END UP WITH CHC
POP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NE GA...MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND THE
SRN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. NOW FOR
TEMPS...THE NAM HAS WARMED...BUT STILL HAS BELOW FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT ONSET. THE GFS IS COLDER EVEN WITH THE
SLOWER ONSET...SHOWING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE
QUICKLY WARMING AFTER ONSET. ONCE AGAIN USED A BLEND TO DEVELOP THE
TEMP FORECAST WHICH INDICATES FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT ONSET THEN
QUICKLY WARMING WITH ALL LIQUID BY NOON SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALL AREAS AS THAT COULD BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP CHARACTER EARLY ON. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT LEADING TO ONLY A VERY LIGHT ACCRETION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AT ONSET. THAT SAID...COLD TEMPS COULD
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HIGHER ACCRETIONS
COULD DEVELOP. LOWS SAT NITE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS
AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE IN THE CAD REGION.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUN NITE AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THRU THE NITE HOWEVER. THE CAD ERODES MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIP CHC TAPERS OFF EVEN
FURTHER TO SLIGHT CHC OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THAT SAID...PRECIP CHC
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE MTNS SUN NITE AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT. TEMPS REMAIN WARM ENUF ALL AREAS FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID
THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS SUN NITE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TUE-WED...AS A
TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND
PROGRESS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A 1032 MB
HIGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON INCREASING ISENT LIFT THRUT THE LLVLS...WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING IN FROM THE SW ATOP A DEVELOPING WEDGE. THE MID-UPR LVLS
LOOK FAIRLY NEUTRAL FOR SUPPORTING UVM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
850 MB WAA...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...I THINK HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY
POPS LOOKS GOOD BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. ANY
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/DRIZZLE SHUD HELP LOCK IN AN IN SITU COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE...KEEPING TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT FROM THE NW.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS CATCHING UP BUT STILL SLOWER. GOING WITH THE WPC PREFERENCE
(SLOWER THAN GFS)...WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM (UP TO 15-20 DEG JUMP FROM
TUESDAY/S TEMPS) UNDER DECENT SWLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY (OR EVENING IF ECMWF IS RIGHT)...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INSTBY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. BUT SEVERE THREAT SHUD BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGER CONCERN
MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF
SOMEWHAT FROM PREV RUNS. STILL PLAN TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEG
ON THURSDAY...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP GIVE WAY TO NWLY CAA FLOW. THE 850 MB
TEMPS WILL FALL SUCH THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
ON BACK EDGE OF THE THE PRECIP SHIELD. SOME MINOR ACCUMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY
POLAR HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE NW...RETURNING OUR AREA TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S FRIDAY
WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...
     BUT BEFORE DAYBREAK A MODEL BLEND WOULD BRING AN MVFR CIG TO THE
FIELD. THE CIG WOULD RISE TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY...REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A VSBY RESTRICTION.
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH THE FORECAST AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM WEST WILL OCCUR EARLY
IN THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE BRING MVFR CIGS TO KAVL AND THE SC SITES
BEFORE DAWN...WITH LOW VFR AT KHKY. BY MIDDAY THE SC SITES AND KAVL
RISE TO LOW VFR...WHILE KHKY FALLS TO MVFR. THE KHKY CIG RISES TO
LOW VFR THIS EVENING...WHILE KAVL AND KAND FALL TO MVFR. MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH OVER COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AT KAND IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE AT FOOTHILLS SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAVL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SE.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE
WEDGE. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL FRONTS CROSS
THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ON RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 280515
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1215 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRONTS WAKE. THE HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM SATLLITE IMAGERY.

930 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE YET TO FORM OVER THE CWFA OR EVEN
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM WITHIN THE BUILDING WEDGE. NEWEST GUIDANCE
/00Z NAM/ STILL SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CLOUD LAYER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO THOUGH SKIES HAVE BEEN KEPT CLEARER THIS EVENING...AN
INCREASING TREND LATER STILL IS APPROPRIATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING
INTO THE PIEDMONT ON THE WEDGE FLOW AS DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
TRENDING DOWNWARD. DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL PRETTY LARGE AND PROFILES
NOT CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT IF ANYWHERE THE
SRN END OF THE CWFA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS.
THIS AREA IS STILL SEEING THE LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...THAT IS...THE WEDGE HAS NOT YET MOVED IN THERE. REVISED
TEMPS THRU MRNG BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS
PRODUCT...BUT VALUES ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
EXPECTATIONS.

AT 200 PM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY SUNRISE...THE HIGH WILL HAVE
WEDGED SW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. ALSO...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW H850...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LATER TEMPS COOL.

ON SAT...THE WEDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HENCE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY DAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE MID 40S
OVER PARTS OF NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
REMAIN CHILLY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE SW MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OUTSIDE THE WEDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HYBRID COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THE GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES THAT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
SAT NITE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ABOVE THE
COLD DOME. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LIFT GETS GOING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST...WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FASTER...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST. AGAIN...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND FOR
TIMING AS EVEN THE SLOWER GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NITE. THEREFORE...END UP WITH CHC
POP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NE GA...MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND THE
SRN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. NOW FOR
TEMPS...THE NAM HAS WARMED...BUT STILL HAS BELOW FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT ONSET. THE GFS IS COLDER EVEN WITH THE
SLOWER ONSET...SHOWING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE
QUICKLY WARMING AFTER ONSET. ONCE AGAIN USED A BLEND TO DEVELOP THE
TEMP FORECAST WHICH INDICATES FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT ONSET THEN
QUICKLY WARMING WITH ALL LIQUID BY NOON SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALL AREAS AS THAT COULD BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP CHARACTER EARLY ON. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT LEADING TO ONLY A VERY LIGHT ACCRETION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AT ONSET. THAT SAID...COLD TEMPS COULD
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HIGHER ACCRETIONS
COULD DEVELOP. LOWS SAT NITE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS
AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE IN THE CAD REGION.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUN NITE AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THRU THE NITE HOWEVER. THE CAD ERODES MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIP CHC TAPERS OFF EVEN
FURTHER TO SLIGHT CHC OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THAT SAID...PRECIP CHC
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE MTNS SUN NITE AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT. TEMPS REMAIN WARM ENUF ALL AREAS FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID
THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS SUN NITE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TUE-WED...AS A
TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND
PROGRESS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A 1032 MB
HIGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON INCREASING ISENT LIFT THRUT THE LLVLS...WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING IN FROM THE SW ATOP A DEVELOPING WEDGE. THE MID-UPR LVLS
LOOK FAIRLY NEUTRAL FOR SUPPORTING UVM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
850 MB WAA...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...I THINK HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY
POPS LOOKS GOOD BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. ANY
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/DRIZZLE SHUD HELP LOCK IN AN IN SITU COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE...KEEPING TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT FROM THE NW.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS CATCHING UP BUT STILL SLOWER. GOING WITH THE WPC PREFERENCE
(SLOWER THAN GFS)...WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM (UP TO 15-20 DEG JUMP FROM
TUESDAY/S TEMPS) UNDER DECENT SWLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY (OR EVENING IF ECMWF IS RIGHT)...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INSTBY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. BUT SEVERE THREAT SHUD BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGER CONCERN
MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF
SOMEWHAT FROM PREV RUNS. STILL PLAN TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEG
ON THURSDAY...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP GIVE WAY TO NWLY CAA FLOW. THE 850 MB
TEMPS WILL FALL SUCH THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
ON BACK EDGE OF THE THE PRECIP SHIELD. SOME MINOR ACCUMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY
POLAR HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE NW...RETURNING OUR AREA TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S FRIDAY
WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...
     BUT BEFORE DAYBREAK A MODEL BLEND WOULD BRING AN MVFR CIG TO THE
FIELD. THE CIG WOULD RISE TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY...REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A VSBY RESTRICTION.
WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH THE FORECAST AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM WEST WILL OCCUR EARLY
IN THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE BRING MVFR CIGS TO KAVL AND THE SC SITES
BEFORE DAWN...WITH LOW VFR AT KHKY. BY MIDDAY THE SC SITES AND KAVL
RISE TO LOW VFR...WHILE KHKY FALLS TO MVFR. THE KHKY CIG RISES TO
LOW VFR THIS EVENING...WHILE KAVL AND KAND FALL TO MVFR. MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH OVER COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AT KAND IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE AT FOOTHILLS SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. KAVL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SE.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE
WEDGE. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL FRONTS CROSS
THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ON RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 280247
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
947 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRONTS WAKE. THE HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE YET TO FORM OVER THE CWFA OR EVEN
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM WITHIN THE BUILDING WEDGE. NEWEST GUIDANCE
/00Z NAM/ STILL SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CLOUD LAYER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO THOUGH SKIES HAVE BEEN KEPT CLEARER THIS EVENING...AN
INCREASING TREND LATER STILL IS APPROPRIATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING
INTO THE PIEDMONT ON THE WEDGE FLOW AS DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
TRENDING DOWNWARD. DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL PRETTY LARGE AND PROFILES
NOT CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT IF ANYWHERE THE
SRN END OF THE CWFA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS.
THIS AREA IS STILL SEEING THE LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...THAT IS...THE WEDGE HAS NOT YET MOVED IN THERE. REVISED
TEMPS THRU MRNG BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS
PRODUCT...BUT VALUES ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
EXPECTATIONS.

AT 200 PM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY SUNRISE...THE HIGH WILL HAVE
WEDGED SW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. ALSO...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW H850...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LATER TEMPS COOL.

ON SAT...THE WEDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HENCE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY DAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE MID 40S
OVER PARTS OF NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
REMAIN CHILLY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE SW MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OUTSIDE THE WEDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HYBRID COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THE GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES THAT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
SAT NITE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ABOVE THE
COLD DOME. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LIFT GETS GOING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST...WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FASTER...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST. AGAIN...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND FOR
TIMING AS EVEN THE SLOWER GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NITE. THEREFORE...END UP WITH CHC
POP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NE GA...MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND THE
SRN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. NOW FOR
TEMPS...THE NAM HAS WARMED...BUT STILL HAS BELOW FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT ONSET. THE GFS IS COLDER EVEN WITH THE
SLOWER ONSET...SHOWING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE
QUICKLY WARMING AFTER ONSET. ONCE AGAIN USED A BLEND TO DEVELOP THE
TEMP FORECAST WHICH INDICATES FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT ONSET THEN
QUICKLY WARMING WITH ALL LIQUID BY NOON SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALL AREAS AS THAT COULD BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP CHARACTER EARLY ON. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT LEADING TO ONLY A VERY LIGHT ACCRETION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AT ONSET. THAT SAID...COLD TEMPS COULD
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HIGHER ACCRETIONS
COULD DEVELOP. LOWS SAT NITE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS
AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE IN THE CAD REGION.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUN NITE AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THRU THE NITE HOWEVER. THE CAD ERODES MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIP CHC TAPERS OFF EVEN
FURTHER TO SLIGHT CHC OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THAT SAID...PRECIP CHC
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE MTNS SUN NITE AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT. TEMPS REMAIN WARM ENUF ALL AREAS FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID
THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS SUN NITE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TUE-WED...AS A
TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND
PROGRESS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A 1032 MB
HIGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON INCREASING ISENT LIFT THRUT THE LLVLS...WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING IN FROM THE SW ATOP A DEVELOPING WEDGE. THE MID-UPR LVLS
LOOK FAIRLY NEUTRAL FOR SUPPORTING UVM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
850 MB WAA...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...I THINK HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY
POPS LOOKS GOOD BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. ANY
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/DRIZZLE SHUD HELP LOCK IN AN IN SITU COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE...KEEPING TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT FROM THE NW.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS CATCHING UP BUT STILL SLOWER. GOING WITH THE WPC PREFERENCE
(SLOWER THAN GFS)...WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM (UP TO 15-20 DEG JUMP FROM
TUESDAY/S TEMPS) UNDER DECENT SWLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY (OR EVENING IF ECMWF IS RIGHT)...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INSTBY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. BUT SEVERE THREAT SHUD BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGER CONCERN
MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF
SOMEWHAT FROM PREV RUNS. STILL PLAN TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEG
ON THURSDAY...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP GIVE WAY TO NWLY CAA FLOW. THE 850 MB
TEMPS WILL FALL SUCH THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
ON BACK EDGE OF THE THE PRECIP SHIELD. SOME MINOR ACCUMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY
POLAR HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE NW...RETURNING OUR AREA TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S FRIDAY
WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AT
THE FIELD THIS PERIOD. VFR WILL CONTINUE THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN A
SATURATED LAYER SHOULD FORM BENEATH THE DEVELOPING INVERSION
RESULTING IN AN MVFR CIG. THIS CIG MAY LOWER FURTHER TOWARD
DAWN...HENCE TEMPO...BUT BREEZY NE WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY IFR.
WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY SAT WHICH WILL CREATE UPSLOPE FORCING AND LIKELY
LOWER CIGS BELOW 020...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN NE QUADRANT
THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING TO MVFR LIKELY AT ALL SITES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE AS
WEDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOISTENS. DRY SFC DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY NE
WINDS /CHANNELED TO SE AT KAVL EARLY SAT/ WILL PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION. LLVL FORCING INCREASES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS WINDS
VEER TO MORE EASTERLY/UPSLOPE ALOFT. HOWEVER SEVERAL GUIDANCE
SOURCES SHOW THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS MIXING OUT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE LATE MRNG TO MIDDAY...BUT MVFR SEEMS MORE LIKELY GIVEN CAD
PATTERN.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND
STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE WEDGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 280247
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
947 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRONTS WAKE. THE HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE YET TO FORM OVER THE CWFA OR EVEN
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM WITHIN THE BUILDING WEDGE. NEWEST GUIDANCE
/00Z NAM/ STILL SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CLOUD LAYER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO THOUGH SKIES HAVE BEEN KEPT CLEARER THIS EVENING...AN
INCREASING TREND LATER STILL IS APPROPRIATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING
INTO THE PIEDMONT ON THE WEDGE FLOW AS DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
TRENDING DOWNWARD. DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL PRETTY LARGE AND PROFILES
NOT CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT IF ANYWHERE THE
SRN END OF THE CWFA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS.
THIS AREA IS STILL SEEING THE LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...THAT IS...THE WEDGE HAS NOT YET MOVED IN THERE. REVISED
TEMPS THRU MRNG BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS
PRODUCT...BUT VALUES ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
EXPECTATIONS.

AT 200 PM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY SUNRISE...THE HIGH WILL HAVE
WEDGED SW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. ALSO...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW H850...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LATER TEMPS COOL.

ON SAT...THE WEDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HENCE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY DAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE MID 40S
OVER PARTS OF NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
REMAIN CHILLY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE SW MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OUTSIDE THE WEDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HYBRID COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THE GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES THAT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
SAT NITE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ABOVE THE
COLD DOME. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LIFT GETS GOING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST...WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FASTER...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST. AGAIN...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND FOR
TIMING AS EVEN THE SLOWER GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NITE. THEREFORE...END UP WITH CHC
POP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NE GA...MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND THE
SRN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. NOW FOR
TEMPS...THE NAM HAS WARMED...BUT STILL HAS BELOW FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT ONSET. THE GFS IS COLDER EVEN WITH THE
SLOWER ONSET...SHOWING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE
QUICKLY WARMING AFTER ONSET. ONCE AGAIN USED A BLEND TO DEVELOP THE
TEMP FORECAST WHICH INDICATES FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT ONSET THEN
QUICKLY WARMING WITH ALL LIQUID BY NOON SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALL AREAS AS THAT COULD BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP CHARACTER EARLY ON. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT LEADING TO ONLY A VERY LIGHT ACCRETION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AT ONSET. THAT SAID...COLD TEMPS COULD
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HIGHER ACCRETIONS
COULD DEVELOP. LOWS SAT NITE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS
AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE IN THE CAD REGION.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUN NITE AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THRU THE NITE HOWEVER. THE CAD ERODES MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIP CHC TAPERS OFF EVEN
FURTHER TO SLIGHT CHC OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THAT SAID...PRECIP CHC
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE MTNS SUN NITE AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT. TEMPS REMAIN WARM ENUF ALL AREAS FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID
THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS SUN NITE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TUE-WED...AS A
TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND
PROGRESS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A 1032 MB
HIGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON INCREASING ISENT LIFT THRUT THE LLVLS...WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING IN FROM THE SW ATOP A DEVELOPING WEDGE. THE MID-UPR LVLS
LOOK FAIRLY NEUTRAL FOR SUPPORTING UVM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
850 MB WAA...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...I THINK HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY
POPS LOOKS GOOD BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. ANY
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/DRIZZLE SHUD HELP LOCK IN AN IN SITU COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE...KEEPING TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT FROM THE NW.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS CATCHING UP BUT STILL SLOWER. GOING WITH THE WPC PREFERENCE
(SLOWER THAN GFS)...WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM (UP TO 15-20 DEG JUMP FROM
TUESDAY/S TEMPS) UNDER DECENT SWLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY (OR EVENING IF ECMWF IS RIGHT)...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INSTBY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. BUT SEVERE THREAT SHUD BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGER CONCERN
MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF
SOMEWHAT FROM PREV RUNS. STILL PLAN TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEG
ON THURSDAY...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP GIVE WAY TO NWLY CAA FLOW. THE 850 MB
TEMPS WILL FALL SUCH THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
ON BACK EDGE OF THE THE PRECIP SHIELD. SOME MINOR ACCUMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY
POLAR HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE NW...RETURNING OUR AREA TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S FRIDAY
WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AT
THE FIELD THIS PERIOD. VFR WILL CONTINUE THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN A
SATURATED LAYER SHOULD FORM BENEATH THE DEVELOPING INVERSION
RESULTING IN AN MVFR CIG. THIS CIG MAY LOWER FURTHER TOWARD
DAWN...HENCE TEMPO...BUT BREEZY NE WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY IFR.
WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY SAT WHICH WILL CREATE UPSLOPE FORCING AND LIKELY
LOWER CIGS BELOW 020...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN NE QUADRANT
THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING TO MVFR LIKELY AT ALL SITES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE AS
WEDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOISTENS. DRY SFC DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY NE
WINDS /CHANNELED TO SE AT KAVL EARLY SAT/ WILL PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION. LLVL FORCING INCREASES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS WINDS
VEER TO MORE EASTERLY/UPSLOPE ALOFT. HOWEVER SEVERAL GUIDANCE
SOURCES SHOW THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS MIXING OUT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE LATE MRNG TO MIDDAY...BUT MVFR SEEMS MORE LIKELY GIVEN CAD
PATTERN.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND
STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE WEDGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 280247
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
947 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRONTS WAKE. THE HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE YET TO FORM OVER THE CWFA OR EVEN
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM WITHIN THE BUILDING WEDGE. NEWEST GUIDANCE
/00Z NAM/ STILL SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CLOUD LAYER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO THOUGH SKIES HAVE BEEN KEPT CLEARER THIS EVENING...AN
INCREASING TREND LATER STILL IS APPROPRIATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING
INTO THE PIEDMONT ON THE WEDGE FLOW AS DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
TRENDING DOWNWARD. DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL PRETTY LARGE AND PROFILES
NOT CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT IF ANYWHERE THE
SRN END OF THE CWFA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS.
THIS AREA IS STILL SEEING THE LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...THAT IS...THE WEDGE HAS NOT YET MOVED IN THERE. REVISED
TEMPS THRU MRNG BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS
PRODUCT...BUT VALUES ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
EXPECTATIONS.

AT 200 PM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY SUNRISE...THE HIGH WILL HAVE
WEDGED SW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. ALSO...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW H850...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LATER TEMPS COOL.

ON SAT...THE WEDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HENCE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY DAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE MID 40S
OVER PARTS OF NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
REMAIN CHILLY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE SW MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OUTSIDE THE WEDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HYBRID COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THE GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES THAT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
SAT NITE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ABOVE THE
COLD DOME. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LIFT GETS GOING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST...WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FASTER...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST. AGAIN...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND FOR
TIMING AS EVEN THE SLOWER GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NITE. THEREFORE...END UP WITH CHC
POP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NE GA...MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND THE
SRN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. NOW FOR
TEMPS...THE NAM HAS WARMED...BUT STILL HAS BELOW FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT ONSET. THE GFS IS COLDER EVEN WITH THE
SLOWER ONSET...SHOWING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE
QUICKLY WARMING AFTER ONSET. ONCE AGAIN USED A BLEND TO DEVELOP THE
TEMP FORECAST WHICH INDICATES FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT ONSET THEN
QUICKLY WARMING WITH ALL LIQUID BY NOON SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALL AREAS AS THAT COULD BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP CHARACTER EARLY ON. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT LEADING TO ONLY A VERY LIGHT ACCRETION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AT ONSET. THAT SAID...COLD TEMPS COULD
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HIGHER ACCRETIONS
COULD DEVELOP. LOWS SAT NITE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS
AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE IN THE CAD REGION.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUN NITE AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THRU THE NITE HOWEVER. THE CAD ERODES MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIP CHC TAPERS OFF EVEN
FURTHER TO SLIGHT CHC OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THAT SAID...PRECIP CHC
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE MTNS SUN NITE AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT. TEMPS REMAIN WARM ENUF ALL AREAS FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID
THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS SUN NITE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TUE-WED...AS A
TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND
PROGRESS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A 1032 MB
HIGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON INCREASING ISENT LIFT THRUT THE LLVLS...WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING IN FROM THE SW ATOP A DEVELOPING WEDGE. THE MID-UPR LVLS
LOOK FAIRLY NEUTRAL FOR SUPPORTING UVM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
850 MB WAA...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...I THINK HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY
POPS LOOKS GOOD BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. ANY
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/DRIZZLE SHUD HELP LOCK IN AN IN SITU COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE...KEEPING TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT FROM THE NW.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS CATCHING UP BUT STILL SLOWER. GOING WITH THE WPC PREFERENCE
(SLOWER THAN GFS)...WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM (UP TO 15-20 DEG JUMP FROM
TUESDAY/S TEMPS) UNDER DECENT SWLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY (OR EVENING IF ECMWF IS RIGHT)...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INSTBY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. BUT SEVERE THREAT SHUD BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGER CONCERN
MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF
SOMEWHAT FROM PREV RUNS. STILL PLAN TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEG
ON THURSDAY...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP GIVE WAY TO NWLY CAA FLOW. THE 850 MB
TEMPS WILL FALL SUCH THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
ON BACK EDGE OF THE THE PRECIP SHIELD. SOME MINOR ACCUMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY
POLAR HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE NW...RETURNING OUR AREA TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S FRIDAY
WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AT
THE FIELD THIS PERIOD. VFR WILL CONTINUE THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN A
SATURATED LAYER SHOULD FORM BENEATH THE DEVELOPING INVERSION
RESULTING IN AN MVFR CIG. THIS CIG MAY LOWER FURTHER TOWARD
DAWN...HENCE TEMPO...BUT BREEZY NE WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY IFR.
WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY SAT WHICH WILL CREATE UPSLOPE FORCING AND LIKELY
LOWER CIGS BELOW 020...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN NE QUADRANT
THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING TO MVFR LIKELY AT ALL SITES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE AS
WEDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOISTENS. DRY SFC DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY NE
WINDS /CHANNELED TO SE AT KAVL EARLY SAT/ WILL PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION. LLVL FORCING INCREASES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS WINDS
VEER TO MORE EASTERLY/UPSLOPE ALOFT. HOWEVER SEVERAL GUIDANCE
SOURCES SHOW THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS MIXING OUT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE LATE MRNG TO MIDDAY...BUT MVFR SEEMS MORE LIKELY GIVEN CAD
PATTERN.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND
STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE WEDGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 272346
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRONTS WAKE. THE HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...FEW CHANGES...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES RETURNING BY MIDNIGHT ALBEIT LACKING ENOUGH
FORCING FOR MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES. LATE DAY MIXING RESULTED IN
SOME VERY LOW DEWPOINTS IN SPOTS ACRS THE REGION. FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY
ANYWHERE IN THE AREA EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE COOLEST SNOWY VALLEYS IF
THEY ARE ABLE TO REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS AFFORDED BY THE
GRADIENT AROUND THE WEDGE. REMOVED MENTION FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR
EVENING DEWPOINT TRENDS.

AT 200 PM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY SUNRISE...THE HIGH WILL HAVE
WEDGED SW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. ALSO...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW H850...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LATER TEMPS COOL.

ON SAT...THE WEDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HENCE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY DAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE MID 40S
OVER PARTS OF NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
REMAIN CHILLY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE SW MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OUTSIDE THE WEDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HYBRID COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THE GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES THAT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
SAT NITE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ABOVE THE
COLD DOME. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LIFT GETS GOING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST...WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FASTER...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST. AGAIN...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND FOR
TIMING AS EVEN THE SLOWER GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NITE. THEREFORE...END UP WITH CHC
POP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NE GA...MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND THE
SRN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. NOW FOR
TEMPS...THE NAM HAS WARMED...BUT STILL HAS BELOW FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT ONSET. THE GFS IS COLDER EVEN WITH THE
SLOWER ONSET...SHOWING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE
QUICKLY WARMING AFTER ONSET. ONCE AGAIN USED A BLEND TO DEVELOP THE
TEMP FORECAST WHICH INDICATES FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT ONSET THEN
QUICKLY WARMING WITH ALL LIQUID BY NOON SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALL AREAS AS THAT COULD BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP CHARACTER EARLY ON. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT LEADING TO ONLY A VERY LIGHT ACCRETION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AT ONSET. THAT SAID...COLD TEMPS COULD
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HIGHER ACCRETIONS
COULD DEVELOP. LOWS SAT NITE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS
AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE IN THE CAD REGION.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUN NITE AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THRU THE NITE HOWEVER. THE CAD ERODES MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIP CHC TAPERS OFF EVEN
FURTHER TO SLIGHT CHC OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THAT SAID...PRECIP CHC
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE MTNS SUN NITE AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT. TEMPS REMAIN WARM ENUF ALL AREAS FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID
THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS SUN NITE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TUE-WED...AS A
TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND
PROGRESS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A 1032 MB
HIGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON INCREASING ISENT LIFT THRUT THE LLVLS...WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING IN FROM THE SW ATOP A DEVELOPING WEDGE. THE MID-UPR LVLS
LOOK FAIRLY NEUTRAL FOR SUPPORTING UVM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
850 MB WAA...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...I THINK HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY
POPS LOOKS GOOD BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. ANY
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/DRIZZLE SHUD HELP LOCK IN AN IN SITU COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE...KEEPING TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT FROM THE NW.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS CATCHING UP BUT STILL SLOWER. GOING WITH THE WPC PREFERENCE
(SLOWER THAN GFS)...WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM (UP TO 15-20 DEG JUMP FROM
TUESDAY/S TEMPS) UNDER DECENT SWLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY (OR EVENING IF ECMWF IS RIGHT)...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INSTBY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. BUT SEVERE THREAT SHUD BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGER CONCERN
MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF
SOMEWHAT FROM PREV RUNS. STILL PLAN TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEG
ON THURSDAY...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP GIVE WAY TO NWLY CAA FLOW. THE 850 MB
TEMPS WILL FALL SUCH THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
ON BACK EDGE OF THE THE PRECIP SHIELD. SOME MINOR ACCUMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY
POLAR HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE NW...RETURNING OUR AREA TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S FRIDAY
WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AT
THE FIELD THIS PERIOD. VFR WILL CONTINUE THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN A
SATURATED LAYER SHOULD FORM BENEATH THE DEVELOPING INVERSION
RESULTING IN AN MVFR CIG. THIS CIG MAY LOWER FURTHER TOWARD
DAWN...HENCE TEMPO...BUT BREEZY NE WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY IFR.
WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY SAT WHICH WILL CREATE UPSLOPE FORCING AND LIKELY
LOWER CIGS BELOW 020...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN NE QUADRANT
THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING TO MVFR LIKELY AT ALL SITES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE AS
WEDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOISTENS. DRY SFC DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY NE
WINDS /CHANNELED TO SE AT KAVL EARLY SAT/ WILL PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION. LLVL FORCING INCREASES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS WINDS
VEER TO MORE EASTERLY/UPSLOPE ALOFT. HOWEVER SEVERAL GUIDANCE
SOURCES SHOW THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS MIXING OUT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE LATE MRNG TO MIDDAY...BUT MVFR SEEMS MORE LIKELY GIVEN CAD
PATTERN.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND
STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE WEDGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 272346
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRONTS WAKE. THE HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...FEW CHANGES...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES RETURNING BY MIDNIGHT ALBEIT LACKING ENOUGH
FORCING FOR MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES. LATE DAY MIXING RESULTED IN
SOME VERY LOW DEWPOINTS IN SPOTS ACRS THE REGION. FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY
ANYWHERE IN THE AREA EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE COOLEST SNOWY VALLEYS IF
THEY ARE ABLE TO REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS AFFORDED BY THE
GRADIENT AROUND THE WEDGE. REMOVED MENTION FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR
EVENING DEWPOINT TRENDS.

AT 200 PM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY SUNRISE...THE HIGH WILL HAVE
WEDGED SW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. ALSO...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW H850...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LATER TEMPS COOL.

ON SAT...THE WEDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HENCE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY DAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE MID 40S
OVER PARTS OF NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
REMAIN CHILLY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE SW MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OUTSIDE THE WEDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HYBRID COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THE GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES THAT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
SAT NITE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ABOVE THE
COLD DOME. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LIFT GETS GOING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST...WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FASTER...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST. AGAIN...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND FOR
TIMING AS EVEN THE SLOWER GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NITE. THEREFORE...END UP WITH CHC
POP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NE GA...MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND THE
SRN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. NOW FOR
TEMPS...THE NAM HAS WARMED...BUT STILL HAS BELOW FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT ONSET. THE GFS IS COLDER EVEN WITH THE
SLOWER ONSET...SHOWING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE
QUICKLY WARMING AFTER ONSET. ONCE AGAIN USED A BLEND TO DEVELOP THE
TEMP FORECAST WHICH INDICATES FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT ONSET THEN
QUICKLY WARMING WITH ALL LIQUID BY NOON SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALL AREAS AS THAT COULD BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP CHARACTER EARLY ON. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT LEADING TO ONLY A VERY LIGHT ACCRETION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AT ONSET. THAT SAID...COLD TEMPS COULD
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HIGHER ACCRETIONS
COULD DEVELOP. LOWS SAT NITE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS
AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE IN THE CAD REGION.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUN NITE AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THRU THE NITE HOWEVER. THE CAD ERODES MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIP CHC TAPERS OFF EVEN
FURTHER TO SLIGHT CHC OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THAT SAID...PRECIP CHC
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE MTNS SUN NITE AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT. TEMPS REMAIN WARM ENUF ALL AREAS FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID
THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS SUN NITE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TUE-WED...AS A
TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND
PROGRESS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A 1032 MB
HIGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON INCREASING ISENT LIFT THRUT THE LLVLS...WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING IN FROM THE SW ATOP A DEVELOPING WEDGE. THE MID-UPR LVLS
LOOK FAIRLY NEUTRAL FOR SUPPORTING UVM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
850 MB WAA...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...I THINK HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY
POPS LOOKS GOOD BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. ANY
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/DRIZZLE SHUD HELP LOCK IN AN IN SITU COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE...KEEPING TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT FROM THE NW.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS CATCHING UP BUT STILL SLOWER. GOING WITH THE WPC PREFERENCE
(SLOWER THAN GFS)...WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM (UP TO 15-20 DEG JUMP FROM
TUESDAY/S TEMPS) UNDER DECENT SWLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY (OR EVENING IF ECMWF IS RIGHT)...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INSTBY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. BUT SEVERE THREAT SHUD BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGER CONCERN
MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF
SOMEWHAT FROM PREV RUNS. STILL PLAN TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEG
ON THURSDAY...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP GIVE WAY TO NWLY CAA FLOW. THE 850 MB
TEMPS WILL FALL SUCH THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
ON BACK EDGE OF THE THE PRECIP SHIELD. SOME MINOR ACCUMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY
POLAR HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE NW...RETURNING OUR AREA TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S FRIDAY
WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AT
THE FIELD THIS PERIOD. VFR WILL CONTINUE THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN A
SATURATED LAYER SHOULD FORM BENEATH THE DEVELOPING INVERSION
RESULTING IN AN MVFR CIG. THIS CIG MAY LOWER FURTHER TOWARD
DAWN...HENCE TEMPO...BUT BREEZY NE WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY IFR.
WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY SAT WHICH WILL CREATE UPSLOPE FORCING AND LIKELY
LOWER CIGS BELOW 020...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN NE QUADRANT
THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING TO MVFR LIKELY AT ALL SITES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE AS
WEDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOISTENS. DRY SFC DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY NE
WINDS /CHANNELED TO SE AT KAVL EARLY SAT/ WILL PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION. LLVL FORCING INCREASES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS WINDS
VEER TO MORE EASTERLY/UPSLOPE ALOFT. HOWEVER SEVERAL GUIDANCE
SOURCES SHOW THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS MIXING OUT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE LATE MRNG TO MIDDAY...BUT MVFR SEEMS MORE LIKELY GIVEN CAD
PATTERN.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND
STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...PARTICULARLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE WEDGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 272104
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
404 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRONTS WAKE. THE HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM...OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THIS IS ONE OF THE BETTER
AFTERNOONS WEATHERWISE IN A WHILE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS PUSHED
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM I-85 SOUTHWARD...WITH 40S
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER THIS IS STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. IT
IS STILL QUITE CHILLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE
SNOW WITH TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE THROUGH THE VALLEYS.

DURING THE OVENIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. BY SATURDAY SUNRISE...THE HIGH WILL HAVE
WEDGED SW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. ALSO...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW H850...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LATER TEMPS COOL.

ON SAT...THE WEDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HENCE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY DAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE MID 40S
OVER PARTS OF NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
REMAIN CHILLY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE SW MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OUTSIDE THE WEDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HYBRID COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THE GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES THAT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
SAT NITE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ABOVE THE
COLD DOME. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LIFT GETS GOING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST...WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FASTER...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST. AGAIN...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND FOR
TIMING AS EVEN THE SLOWER GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NITE. THEREFORE...END UP WITH CHC
POP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NE GA...MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND THE
SRN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. NOW FOR
TEMPS...THE NAM HAS WARMED...BUT STILL HAS BELOW FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT ONSET. THE GFS IS COLDER EVEN WITH THE
SLOWER ONSET...SHOWING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE
QUICKLY WARMING AFTER ONSET. ONCE AGAIN USED A BLEND TO DEVELOP THE
TEMP FORECAST WHICH INDICATES FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT ONSET THEN
QUICKLY WARMING WITH ALL LIQUID BY NOON SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALL AREAS AS THAT COULD BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP CHARACTER EARLY ON. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT LEADING TO ONLY A VERY LIGHT ACCRETION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AT ONSET. THAT SAID...COLD TEMPS COULD
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HIGHER ACCRETIONS
COULD DEVELOP. LOWS SAT NITE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS
AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE IN THE CAD REGION.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUN NITE AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THRU THE NITE HOWEVER. THE CAD ERODES MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIP CHC TAPERS OFF EVEN
FURTHER TO SLIGHT CHC OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THAT SAID...PRECIP CHC
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE MTNS SUN NITE AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT. TEMPS REMAIN WARM ENUF ALL AREAS FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID
THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS SUN NITE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TUE-WED...AS A
TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND
PROGRESS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A 1032 MB
HIGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON INCREASING ISENT LIFT THRUT THE LLVLS...WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING IN FROM THE SW ATOP A DEVELOPING WEDGE. THE MID-UPR LVLS
LOOK FAIRLY NEUTRAL FOR SUPPORTING UVM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
850 MB WAA...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...I THINK HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY
POPS LOOKS GOOD BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. ANY
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/DRIZZLE SHUD HELP LOCK IN AN IN SITU COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE...KEEPING TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT FROM THE NW.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS CATCHING UP BUT STILL SLOWER. GOING WITH THE WPC PREFERENCE
(SLOWER THAN GFS)...WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM (UP TO 15-20 DEG JUMP FROM
TUESDAY/S TEMPS) UNDER DECENT SWLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY (OR EVENING IF ECMWF IS RIGHT)...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INSTBY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. BUT SEVERE THREAT SHUD BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGER CONCERN
MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF
SOMEWHAT FROM PREV RUNS. STILL PLAN TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEG
ON THURSDAY...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP GIVE WAY TO NWLY CAA FLOW. THE 850 MB
TEMPS WILL FALL SUCH THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
ON BACK EDGE OF THE THE PRECIP SHIELD. SOME MINOR ACCUMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY
POLAR HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE NW...RETURNING OUR AREA TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S FRIDAY
WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT /21Z UPDATE/...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTEROON INTO TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS AROUND 040FT. EXPECT COLD
AIR DAMMING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST
MOVES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ALL THE MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BELOW 5000FT SO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING CIRCA 06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER NWLY VARIABILITY
THIS AFTN DUE TO LEE TROUGH...WINDS WILL PREVAIL NE AND INCREASE TO
5-10 MPH ON SAT.

ELSEWHERE...THE AIRFIELDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE BELOW 5000FT SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP IN THE
04Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL BECOME NE AT 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...EXCEPT
VALLEY AFFECTS AT KAVL SHOULD FLIP THE WINDS TO SE.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER. IMPROVING CONDITIONMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG/WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 272104
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
404 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRONTS WAKE. THE HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM...OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THIS IS ONE OF THE BETTER
AFTERNOONS WEATHERWISE IN A WHILE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS PUSHED
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM I-85 SOUTHWARD...WITH 40S
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER THIS IS STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. IT
IS STILL QUITE CHILLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE
SNOW WITH TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE THROUGH THE VALLEYS.

DURING THE OVENIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. BY SATURDAY SUNRISE...THE HIGH WILL HAVE
WEDGED SW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. ALSO...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW H850...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LATER TEMPS COOL.

ON SAT...THE WEDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HENCE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY DAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE MID 40S
OVER PARTS OF NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
REMAIN CHILLY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE SW MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OUTSIDE THE WEDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HYBRID COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THE GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES THAT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
SAT NITE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ABOVE THE
COLD DOME. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LIFT GETS GOING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST...WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FASTER...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST. AGAIN...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND FOR
TIMING AS EVEN THE SLOWER GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NITE. THEREFORE...END UP WITH CHC
POP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NE GA...MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND THE
SRN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. NOW FOR
TEMPS...THE NAM HAS WARMED...BUT STILL HAS BELOW FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT ONSET. THE GFS IS COLDER EVEN WITH THE
SLOWER ONSET...SHOWING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE
QUICKLY WARMING AFTER ONSET. ONCE AGAIN USED A BLEND TO DEVELOP THE
TEMP FORECAST WHICH INDICATES FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT ONSET THEN
QUICKLY WARMING WITH ALL LIQUID BY NOON SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALL AREAS AS THAT COULD BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP CHARACTER EARLY ON. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT LEADING TO ONLY A VERY LIGHT ACCRETION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AT ONSET. THAT SAID...COLD TEMPS COULD
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HIGHER ACCRETIONS
COULD DEVELOP. LOWS SAT NITE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS
AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE IN THE CAD REGION.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUN NITE AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THRU THE NITE HOWEVER. THE CAD ERODES MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIP CHC TAPERS OFF EVEN
FURTHER TO SLIGHT CHC OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THAT SAID...PRECIP CHC
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE MTNS SUN NITE AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT. TEMPS REMAIN WARM ENUF ALL AREAS FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID
THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS SUN NITE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TUE-WED...AS A
TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND
PROGRESS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A 1032 MB
HIGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON INCREASING ISENT LIFT THRUT THE LLVLS...WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING IN FROM THE SW ATOP A DEVELOPING WEDGE. THE MID-UPR LVLS
LOOK FAIRLY NEUTRAL FOR SUPPORTING UVM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
850 MB WAA...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...I THINK HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY
POPS LOOKS GOOD BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. ANY
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/DRIZZLE SHUD HELP LOCK IN AN IN SITU COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE...KEEPING TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT FROM THE NW.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS CATCHING UP BUT STILL SLOWER. GOING WITH THE WPC PREFERENCE
(SLOWER THAN GFS)...WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM (UP TO 15-20 DEG JUMP FROM
TUESDAY/S TEMPS) UNDER DECENT SWLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY (OR EVENING IF ECMWF IS RIGHT)...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INSTBY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. BUT SEVERE THREAT SHUD BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGER CONCERN
MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF
SOMEWHAT FROM PREV RUNS. STILL PLAN TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEG
ON THURSDAY...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP GIVE WAY TO NWLY CAA FLOW. THE 850 MB
TEMPS WILL FALL SUCH THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
ON BACK EDGE OF THE THE PRECIP SHIELD. SOME MINOR ACCUMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY
POLAR HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE NW...RETURNING OUR AREA TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S FRIDAY
WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT /21Z UPDATE/...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTEROON INTO TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS AROUND 040FT. EXPECT COLD
AIR DAMMING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST
MOVES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ALL THE MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BELOW 5000FT SO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING CIRCA 06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER NWLY VARIABILITY
THIS AFTN DUE TO LEE TROUGH...WINDS WILL PREVAIL NE AND INCREASE TO
5-10 MPH ON SAT.

ELSEWHERE...THE AIRFIELDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE BELOW 5000FT SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP IN THE
04Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL BECOME NE AT 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...EXCEPT
VALLEY AFFECTS AT KAVL SHOULD FLIP THE WINDS TO SE.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER. IMPROVING CONDITIONMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG/WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271939
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
239 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRONTS WAKE. THE HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM...OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THIS IS ONE OF THE BETTER
AFTERNOONS WEATHERWISE IN A WHILE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS PUSHED
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM I-85 SOUTHWARD...WITH 40S
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER THIS IS STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. IT
IS STILL QUITE CHILLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE
SNOW WITH TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE THROUGH THE VALLEYS.

DURING THE OVENIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. BY SATURDAY SUNRISE...THE HIGH WILL HAVE
WEDGED SW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. ALSO...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW H850...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LATER TEMPS COOL.

ON SAT...THE WEDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HENCE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY DAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE MID 40S
OVER PARTS OF NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
REMAIN CHILLY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE SW MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OUTSIDE THE WEDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HYBRID COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THE GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES THAT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
SAT NITE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ABOVE THE
COLD DOME. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LIFT GETS GOING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST...WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FASTER...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST. AGAIN...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND FOR
TIMING AS EVEN THE SLOWER GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NITE. THEREFORE...END UP WITH CHC
POP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NE GA...MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND THE
SRN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. NOW FOR
TEMPS...THE NAM HAS WARMED...BUT STILL HAS BELOW FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT ONSET. THE GFS IS COLDER EVEN WITH THE
SLOWER ONSET...SHOWING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE
QUICKLY WARMING AFTER ONSET. ONCE AGAIN USED A BLEND TO DEVELOP THE
TEMP FORECAST WHICH INDICATES FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT ONSET THEN
QUICKLY WARMING WITH ALL LIQUID BY NOON SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALL AREAS AS THAT COULD BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP CHARACTER EARLY ON. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT LEADING TO ONLY A VERY LIGHT ACCRETION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AT ONSET. THAT SAID...COLD TEMPS COULD
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HIGHER ACCRETIONS
COULD DEVELOP. LOWS SAT NITE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS
AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE IN THE CAD REGION.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUN NITE AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THRU THE NITE HOWEVER. THE CAD ERODES MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIP CHC TAPERS OFF EVEN
FURTHER TO SLIGHT CHC OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THAT SAID...PRECIP CHC
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE MTNS SUN NITE AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT. TEMPS REMAIN WARM ENUF ALL AREAS FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID
THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS SUN NITE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TUE-WED...AS A
TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND
PROGRESS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A 1032 MB
HIGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON INCREASING ISENT LIFT THRUT THE LLVLS...WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING IN FROM THE SW ATOP A DEVELOPING WEDGE. THE MID-UPR LVLS
LOOK FAIRLY NEUTRAL FOR SUPPORTING UVM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
850 MB WAA...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...I THINK HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY
POPS LOOKS GOOD BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. ANY
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/DRIZZLE SHUD HELP LOCK IN AN IN SITU COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE...KEEPING TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT FROM THE NW.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS CATCHING UP BUT STILL SLOWER. GOING WITH THE WPC PREFERENCE
(SLOWER THAN GFS)...WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM (UP TO 15-20 DEG JUMP FROM
TUESDAY/S TEMPS) UNDER DECENT SWLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY (OR EVENING IF ECMWF IS RIGHT)...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INSTBY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. BUT SEVERE THREAT SHUD BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGER CONCERN
MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF
SOMEWHAT FROM PREV RUNS. STILL PLAN TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEG
ON THURSDAY...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP GIVE WAY TO NWLY CAA FLOW. THE 850 MB
TEMPS WILL FALL SUCH THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
ON BACK EDGE OF THE THE PRECIP SHIELD. SOME MINOR ACCUMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY
POLAR HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE NW...RETURNING OUR AREA TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S FRIDAY
WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTEROON
INTO TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS AROUND 040FT. EXPECT COLD AIR
DAMMING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ALL THE MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW
5000FT SO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING CIRCA 06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKLEY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND INCREASE
TO 5-10 MPH ON SAT.

ELSEWHERE...THE AIRFIELDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE BELOW 5000FT SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP IN THE
04Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL BECOME NE AT 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...EXCEPT
VALLEY AFFECTS AT KAVL SHOULD FLIP THE WINDS TO SE.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER. IMPROVING CONDITIONMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271939
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
239 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRONTS WAKE. THE HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM...OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THIS IS ONE OF THE BETTER
AFTERNOONS WEATHERWISE IN A WHILE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS PUSHED
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM I-85 SOUTHWARD...WITH 40S
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER THIS IS STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. IT
IS STILL QUITE CHILLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE
SNOW WITH TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE THROUGH THE VALLEYS.

DURING THE OVENIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. BY SATURDAY SUNRISE...THE HIGH WILL HAVE
WEDGED SW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. ALSO...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW H850...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LATER TEMPS COOL.

ON SAT...THE WEDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HENCE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY DAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE MID 40S
OVER PARTS OF NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
REMAIN CHILLY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE SW MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OUTSIDE THE WEDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HYBRID COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THE GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES THAT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
SAT NITE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ABOVE THE
COLD DOME. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LIFT GETS GOING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST...WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FASTER...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST. AGAIN...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND FOR
TIMING AS EVEN THE SLOWER GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NITE. THEREFORE...END UP WITH CHC
POP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NE GA...MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND THE
SRN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. NOW FOR
TEMPS...THE NAM HAS WARMED...BUT STILL HAS BELOW FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT ONSET. THE GFS IS COLDER EVEN WITH THE
SLOWER ONSET...SHOWING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE
QUICKLY WARMING AFTER ONSET. ONCE AGAIN USED A BLEND TO DEVELOP THE
TEMP FORECAST WHICH INDICATES FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT ONSET THEN
QUICKLY WARMING WITH ALL LIQUID BY NOON SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALL AREAS AS THAT COULD BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP CHARACTER EARLY ON. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT LEADING TO ONLY A VERY LIGHT ACCRETION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AT ONSET. THAT SAID...COLD TEMPS COULD
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HIGHER ACCRETIONS
COULD DEVELOP. LOWS SAT NITE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS
AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE IN THE CAD REGION.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUN NITE AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THRU THE NITE HOWEVER. THE CAD ERODES MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIP CHC TAPERS OFF EVEN
FURTHER TO SLIGHT CHC OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THAT SAID...PRECIP CHC
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE MTNS SUN NITE AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT. TEMPS REMAIN WARM ENUF ALL AREAS FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID
THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS SUN NITE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TUE-WED...AS A
TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND
PROGRESS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A 1032 MB
HIGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON INCREASING ISENT LIFT THRUT THE LLVLS...WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING IN FROM THE SW ATOP A DEVELOPING WEDGE. THE MID-UPR LVLS
LOOK FAIRLY NEUTRAL FOR SUPPORTING UVM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
850 MB WAA...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...I THINK HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY
POPS LOOKS GOOD BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. ANY
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/DRIZZLE SHUD HELP LOCK IN AN IN SITU COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE...KEEPING TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT FROM THE NW.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS CATCHING UP BUT STILL SLOWER. GOING WITH THE WPC PREFERENCE
(SLOWER THAN GFS)...WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM (UP TO 15-20 DEG JUMP FROM
TUESDAY/S TEMPS) UNDER DECENT SWLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY (OR EVENING IF ECMWF IS RIGHT)...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INSTBY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. BUT SEVERE THREAT SHUD BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGER CONCERN
MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF
SOMEWHAT FROM PREV RUNS. STILL PLAN TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEG
ON THURSDAY...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP GIVE WAY TO NWLY CAA FLOW. THE 850 MB
TEMPS WILL FALL SUCH THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
ON BACK EDGE OF THE THE PRECIP SHIELD. SOME MINOR ACCUMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY
POLAR HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE NW...RETURNING OUR AREA TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S FRIDAY
WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTEROON
INTO TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS AROUND 040FT. EXPECT COLD AIR
DAMMING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ALL THE MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW
5000FT SO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING CIRCA 06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKLEY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND INCREASE
TO 5-10 MPH ON SAT.

ELSEWHERE...THE AIRFIELDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE BELOW 5000FT SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP IN THE
04Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL BECOME NE AT 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...EXCEPT
VALLEY AFFECTS AT KAVL SHOULD FLIP THE WINDS TO SE.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER. IMPROVING CONDITIONMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 271939
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
239 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRONTS WAKE. THE HIGH
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM...OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THIS IS ONE OF THE BETTER
AFTERNOONS WEATHERWISE IN A WHILE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS PUSHED
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM I-85 SOUTHWARD...WITH 40S
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER THIS IS STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. IT
IS STILL QUITE CHILLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE
SNOW WITH TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE THROUGH THE VALLEYS.

DURING THE OVENIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. BY SATURDAY SUNRISE...THE HIGH WILL HAVE
WEDGED SW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. ALSO...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW H850...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LATER TEMPS COOL.

ON SAT...THE WEDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HENCE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY DAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS TO THE MID 40S
OVER PARTS OF NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
REMAIN CHILLY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE SW MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OUTSIDE THE WEDGE WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HYBRID COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THE GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES THAT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
SAT NITE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ABOVE THE
COLD DOME. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LIFT GETS GOING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST...WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FASTER...WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST. AGAIN...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND FOR
TIMING AS EVEN THE SLOWER GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NITE. THEREFORE...END UP WITH CHC
POP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS NE GA...MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND THE
SRN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. NOW FOR
TEMPS...THE NAM HAS WARMED...BUT STILL HAS BELOW FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT ONSET. THE GFS IS COLDER EVEN WITH THE
SLOWER ONSET...SHOWING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE
QUICKLY WARMING AFTER ONSET. ONCE AGAIN USED A BLEND TO DEVELOP THE
TEMP FORECAST WHICH INDICATES FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT ONSET THEN
QUICKLY WARMING WITH ALL LIQUID BY NOON SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALL AREAS AS THAT COULD BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP CHARACTER EARLY ON. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT LEADING TO ONLY A VERY LIGHT ACCRETION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AT ONSET. THAT SAID...COLD TEMPS COULD
BECOME LOCKED IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HIGHER ACCRETIONS
COULD DEVELOP. LOWS SAT NITE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS
AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE IN THE CAD REGION.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUN NITE AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THRU THE NITE HOWEVER. THE CAD ERODES MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIP CHC TAPERS OFF EVEN
FURTHER TO SLIGHT CHC OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THAT SAID...PRECIP CHC
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE MTNS SUN NITE AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT. TEMPS REMAIN WARM ENUF ALL AREAS FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID
THRU THE PERIOD. LOWS SUN NITE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE...WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TUE-WED...AS A
TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND
PROGRESS OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A 1032 MB
HIGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE
EAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON INCREASING ISENT LIFT THRUT THE LLVLS...WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING IN FROM THE SW ATOP A DEVELOPING WEDGE. THE MID-UPR LVLS
LOOK FAIRLY NEUTRAL FOR SUPPORTING UVM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
850 MB WAA...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...I THINK HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY
POPS LOOKS GOOD BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. ANY
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/DRIZZLE SHUD HELP LOCK IN AN IN SITU COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE...KEEPING TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT FROM THE NW.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS CATCHING UP BUT STILL SLOWER. GOING WITH THE WPC PREFERENCE
(SLOWER THAN GFS)...WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM (UP TO 15-20 DEG JUMP FROM
TUESDAY/S TEMPS) UNDER DECENT SWLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY (OR EVENING IF ECMWF IS RIGHT)...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INSTBY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. BUT SEVERE THREAT SHUD BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGER CONCERN
MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF
SOMEWHAT FROM PREV RUNS. STILL PLAN TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEG
ON THURSDAY...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP GIVE WAY TO NWLY CAA FLOW. THE 850 MB
TEMPS WILL FALL SUCH THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW
ON BACK EDGE OF THE THE PRECIP SHIELD. SOME MINOR ACCUMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY
POLAR HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE NW...RETURNING OUR AREA TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S FRIDAY
WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTEROON
INTO TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS AROUND 040FT. EXPECT COLD AIR
DAMMING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ALL THE MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW
5000FT SO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING CIRCA 06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKLEY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND INCREASE
TO 5-10 MPH ON SAT.

ELSEWHERE...THE AIRFIELDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE BELOW 5000FT SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP IN THE
04Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL BECOME NE AT 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...EXCEPT
VALLEY AFFECTS AT KAVL SHOULD FLIP THE WINDS TO SE.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER. IMPROVING CONDITIONMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271627
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1127 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1130 AM...WITH INSOLATION MORNING TEMPS RISING FASTER/HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS UPWARD
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. NOW LOOKING AT UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM I-
85 SOUTH AND LOW TO MID 40S NORTH OF THERE. MOUNTAIN TRENDS STILL
LOOK GOOD. LOOKS LIKE FLURRIES ARE ENDING AS ANTICIPATED.

AT 0930 AM ...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO LOWER SKY AMOUNTS PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND TO BUMP MAX TEMPS UPWARD A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BESED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MORE INSOLATION. METARS AND
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THAT FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO WEAK NW FLOW. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS DRY THIS
ACTIVITY UP BY 18Z. HENCE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS. WILL LET THE
WSW FOR BLACK ICE IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPIRE AT NOON.

AT 0330 EST FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE USA THIS
MORNING...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER
CA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF VARIOUS IMPULSES CROSSING OUR AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES AS A
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SE. GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FROM NW TO N TO NE TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AS THE COOL AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK
ICE AND FREEZING FOG FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. AN SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINING ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL SEE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT...NOT CLASSICAL
DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS EASTERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE A DRY ONSET TO THE EVENT...AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SEND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE COOL...AS NE FLOW IS AIDED BY AN AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DEPICTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE ENTRANCE OF A
STRONG UPPER JET MAX. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS SAT AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ABOVE THE COOL DOME...IN RESPONSE TO
CENTRAL CONUS HEIGHT FALLS...WILL RESULT IN QUICK TRANSPORT OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE NAM REMAINING AS THE FASTEST
MODEL...WITH ONLY SLIGHT SUPPORT FROM THE SREF SYSTEM. IT IS ALSO
NOTEWORTHY THAT ONLY THE NAM DEPICTS MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ICE NUCLEATION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH EXPLAINS ITS MORE ROBUST
QPF...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT A DRIZZLE OR --RA EVENT. SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP/DZ BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE QUITE IMPORTANT...AS THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF ICE
NUCLEATION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ONSET TIME...BEFORE RAPID WARMING ALOFT WITHIN THE STRONG WAA REGIME
WOULD RESULT IN A CHANGE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THE CONCERN IS THAT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER STRONG HYBRID CAD...SOME LOCATIONS
COULD LOCK IN FREEZING TEMPS LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICE
ACCRETION...ESP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE
PIEDMONT. ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...DURATION AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
STILL VERY MUCH IN DOUBT...AND IF FREEZING RAIN WERE TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS...THE MOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED WOULD KEEP THE
EVENT SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFF SHORE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE TENN VALLEY. WHILE POPS GRADUALLY RAMP UP DURING THIS TIME...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY WEAKLY
FORCED...EVEN IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHERE VEERED WESTERLY/WEAKLY
CONVERGENT FLOW IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJOR
WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITH
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY
7. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...AS
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
IN FACT...BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN
OVER ANOTHER TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD AIR MASS. THUS...POPS FOR UPGLIDE
PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE DURING MUCH OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT PERIOD... ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING NON-STOP
DURING THIS TIME...AND PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP EVENT IS QUITE POSSIBLE DURING MID-
WEEK...WHEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES...INTERACTING WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED DURING NON-CAD PERIODS...AND BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DAYS OF TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD. HOWEVER...
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE LONE P-TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR VSBY IS HOLDING...DESPITE LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE
EAST. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE CIT WILL REFLECT THE
MODEL TIME HEIGHT PREFERENCE FOR LOW VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS
WILL VEER N AND THEN NE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING...A VSBY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KGSP
AND KGMU...MVFR CIGS AT KAVL AND KAND....AND NO CIG AT KHKY. VFR
VSBYS PREVAIL...DESPITE SOME LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE EAST. SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF KAVL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FIELD...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW VFR CIGS FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT HIGH END MVFR AT KAVL...HOWEVER DRYING
FROM ALOFT MAY INTRODUCE BREAKS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM N TO NE TODAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FROM
THE N UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SE. DRY LOW LEVEL
WILL PRECLUDE VSBY RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 271627
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1127 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1130 AM...WITH INSOLATION MORNING TEMPS RISING FASTER/HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS UPWARD
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. NOW LOOKING AT UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM I-
85 SOUTH AND LOW TO MID 40S NORTH OF THERE. MOUNTAIN TRENDS STILL
LOOK GOOD. LOOKS LIKE FLURRIES ARE ENDING AS ANTICIPATED.

AT 0930 AM ...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO LOWER SKY AMOUNTS PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND TO BUMP MAX TEMPS UPWARD A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BESED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MORE INSOLATION. METARS AND
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THAT FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO WEAK NW FLOW. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS DRY THIS
ACTIVITY UP BY 18Z. HENCE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS. WILL LET THE
WSW FOR BLACK ICE IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPIRE AT NOON.

AT 0330 EST FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE USA THIS
MORNING...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER
CA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF VARIOUS IMPULSES CROSSING OUR AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES AS A
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SE. GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FROM NW TO N TO NE TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AS THE COOL AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK
ICE AND FREEZING FOG FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. AN SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINING ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL SEE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT...NOT CLASSICAL
DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS EASTERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE A DRY ONSET TO THE EVENT...AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SEND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE COOL...AS NE FLOW IS AIDED BY AN AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DEPICTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE ENTRANCE OF A
STRONG UPPER JET MAX. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS SAT AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ABOVE THE COOL DOME...IN RESPONSE TO
CENTRAL CONUS HEIGHT FALLS...WILL RESULT IN QUICK TRANSPORT OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE NAM REMAINING AS THE FASTEST
MODEL...WITH ONLY SLIGHT SUPPORT FROM THE SREF SYSTEM. IT IS ALSO
NOTEWORTHY THAT ONLY THE NAM DEPICTS MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ICE NUCLEATION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH EXPLAINS ITS MORE ROBUST
QPF...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT A DRIZZLE OR --RA EVENT. SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP/DZ BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE QUITE IMPORTANT...AS THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF ICE
NUCLEATION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ONSET TIME...BEFORE RAPID WARMING ALOFT WITHIN THE STRONG WAA REGIME
WOULD RESULT IN A CHANGE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THE CONCERN IS THAT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER STRONG HYBRID CAD...SOME LOCATIONS
COULD LOCK IN FREEZING TEMPS LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICE
ACCRETION...ESP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE
PIEDMONT. ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...DURATION AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
STILL VERY MUCH IN DOUBT...AND IF FREEZING RAIN WERE TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS...THE MOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED WOULD KEEP THE
EVENT SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFF SHORE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE TENN VALLEY. WHILE POPS GRADUALLY RAMP UP DURING THIS TIME...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY WEAKLY
FORCED...EVEN IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHERE VEERED WESTERLY/WEAKLY
CONVERGENT FLOW IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJOR
WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITH
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY
7. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...AS
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
IN FACT...BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN
OVER ANOTHER TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD AIR MASS. THUS...POPS FOR UPGLIDE
PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE DURING MUCH OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT PERIOD... ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING NON-STOP
DURING THIS TIME...AND PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP EVENT IS QUITE POSSIBLE DURING MID-
WEEK...WHEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES...INTERACTING WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED DURING NON-CAD PERIODS...AND BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DAYS OF TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD. HOWEVER...
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE LONE P-TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR VSBY IS HOLDING...DESPITE LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE
EAST. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE CIT WILL REFLECT THE
MODEL TIME HEIGHT PREFERENCE FOR LOW VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS
WILL VEER N AND THEN NE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING...A VSBY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KGSP
AND KGMU...MVFR CIGS AT KAVL AND KAND....AND NO CIG AT KHKY. VFR
VSBYS PREVAIL...DESPITE SOME LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE EAST. SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF KAVL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FIELD...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW VFR CIGS FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT HIGH END MVFR AT KAVL...HOWEVER DRYING
FROM ALOFT MAY INTRODUCE BREAKS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM N TO NE TODAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FROM
THE N UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SE. DRY LOW LEVEL
WILL PRECLUDE VSBY RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271627
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1127 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1130 AM...WITH INSOLATION MORNING TEMPS RISING FASTER/HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS UPWARD
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. NOW LOOKING AT UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM I-
85 SOUTH AND LOW TO MID 40S NORTH OF THERE. MOUNTAIN TRENDS STILL
LOOK GOOD. LOOKS LIKE FLURRIES ARE ENDING AS ANTICIPATED.

AT 0930 AM ...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO LOWER SKY AMOUNTS PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND TO BUMP MAX TEMPS UPWARD A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BESED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MORE INSOLATION. METARS AND
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THAT FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO WEAK NW FLOW. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS DRY THIS
ACTIVITY UP BY 18Z. HENCE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS. WILL LET THE
WSW FOR BLACK ICE IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPIRE AT NOON.

AT 0330 EST FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE USA THIS
MORNING...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER
CA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF VARIOUS IMPULSES CROSSING OUR AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES AS A
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SE. GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FROM NW TO N TO NE TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AS THE COOL AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK
ICE AND FREEZING FOG FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. AN SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINING ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL SEE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT...NOT CLASSICAL
DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS EASTERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE A DRY ONSET TO THE EVENT...AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SEND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE COOL...AS NE FLOW IS AIDED BY AN AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DEPICTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE ENTRANCE OF A
STRONG UPPER JET MAX. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS SAT AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ABOVE THE COOL DOME...IN RESPONSE TO
CENTRAL CONUS HEIGHT FALLS...WILL RESULT IN QUICK TRANSPORT OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE NAM REMAINING AS THE FASTEST
MODEL...WITH ONLY SLIGHT SUPPORT FROM THE SREF SYSTEM. IT IS ALSO
NOTEWORTHY THAT ONLY THE NAM DEPICTS MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ICE NUCLEATION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH EXPLAINS ITS MORE ROBUST
QPF...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT A DRIZZLE OR --RA EVENT. SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP/DZ BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE QUITE IMPORTANT...AS THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF ICE
NUCLEATION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ONSET TIME...BEFORE RAPID WARMING ALOFT WITHIN THE STRONG WAA REGIME
WOULD RESULT IN A CHANGE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THE CONCERN IS THAT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER STRONG HYBRID CAD...SOME LOCATIONS
COULD LOCK IN FREEZING TEMPS LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICE
ACCRETION...ESP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE
PIEDMONT. ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...DURATION AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
STILL VERY MUCH IN DOUBT...AND IF FREEZING RAIN WERE TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS...THE MOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED WOULD KEEP THE
EVENT SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFF SHORE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE TENN VALLEY. WHILE POPS GRADUALLY RAMP UP DURING THIS TIME...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY WEAKLY
FORCED...EVEN IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHERE VEERED WESTERLY/WEAKLY
CONVERGENT FLOW IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJOR
WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITH
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY
7. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...AS
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
IN FACT...BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN
OVER ANOTHER TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD AIR MASS. THUS...POPS FOR UPGLIDE
PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE DURING MUCH OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT PERIOD... ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING NON-STOP
DURING THIS TIME...AND PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP EVENT IS QUITE POSSIBLE DURING MID-
WEEK...WHEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES...INTERACTING WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED DURING NON-CAD PERIODS...AND BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DAYS OF TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD. HOWEVER...
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE LONE P-TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR VSBY IS HOLDING...DESPITE LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE
EAST. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE CIT WILL REFLECT THE
MODEL TIME HEIGHT PREFERENCE FOR LOW VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS
WILL VEER N AND THEN NE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING...A VSBY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KGSP
AND KGMU...MVFR CIGS AT KAVL AND KAND....AND NO CIG AT KHKY. VFR
VSBYS PREVAIL...DESPITE SOME LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE EAST. SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF KAVL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FIELD...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW VFR CIGS FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT HIGH END MVFR AT KAVL...HOWEVER DRYING
FROM ALOFT MAY INTRODUCE BREAKS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM N TO NE TODAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FROM
THE N UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SE. DRY LOW LEVEL
WILL PRECLUDE VSBY RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 271627
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1127 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1130 AM...WITH INSOLATION MORNING TEMPS RISING FASTER/HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS UPWARD
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. NOW LOOKING AT UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM I-
85 SOUTH AND LOW TO MID 40S NORTH OF THERE. MOUNTAIN TRENDS STILL
LOOK GOOD. LOOKS LIKE FLURRIES ARE ENDING AS ANTICIPATED.

AT 0930 AM ...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO LOWER SKY AMOUNTS PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND TO BUMP MAX TEMPS UPWARD A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BESED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MORE INSOLATION. METARS AND
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THAT FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO WEAK NW FLOW. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS DRY THIS
ACTIVITY UP BY 18Z. HENCE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS. WILL LET THE
WSW FOR BLACK ICE IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPIRE AT NOON.

AT 0330 EST FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE USA THIS
MORNING...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER
CA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF VARIOUS IMPULSES CROSSING OUR AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES AS A
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SE. GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FROM NW TO N TO NE TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AS THE COOL AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK
ICE AND FREEZING FOG FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. AN SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINING ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL SEE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT...NOT CLASSICAL
DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS EASTERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE A DRY ONSET TO THE EVENT...AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SEND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE COOL...AS NE FLOW IS AIDED BY AN AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DEPICTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE ENTRANCE OF A
STRONG UPPER JET MAX. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS SAT AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ABOVE THE COOL DOME...IN RESPONSE TO
CENTRAL CONUS HEIGHT FALLS...WILL RESULT IN QUICK TRANSPORT OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE NAM REMAINING AS THE FASTEST
MODEL...WITH ONLY SLIGHT SUPPORT FROM THE SREF SYSTEM. IT IS ALSO
NOTEWORTHY THAT ONLY THE NAM DEPICTS MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ICE NUCLEATION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH EXPLAINS ITS MORE ROBUST
QPF...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT A DRIZZLE OR --RA EVENT. SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP/DZ BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE QUITE IMPORTANT...AS THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF ICE
NUCLEATION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ONSET TIME...BEFORE RAPID WARMING ALOFT WITHIN THE STRONG WAA REGIME
WOULD RESULT IN A CHANGE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THE CONCERN IS THAT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER STRONG HYBRID CAD...SOME LOCATIONS
COULD LOCK IN FREEZING TEMPS LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICE
ACCRETION...ESP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE
PIEDMONT. ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...DURATION AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
STILL VERY MUCH IN DOUBT...AND IF FREEZING RAIN WERE TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS...THE MOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED WOULD KEEP THE
EVENT SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFF SHORE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE TENN VALLEY. WHILE POPS GRADUALLY RAMP UP DURING THIS TIME...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY WEAKLY
FORCED...EVEN IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHERE VEERED WESTERLY/WEAKLY
CONVERGENT FLOW IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJOR
WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITH
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY
7. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...AS
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
IN FACT...BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN
OVER ANOTHER TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD AIR MASS. THUS...POPS FOR UPGLIDE
PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE DURING MUCH OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT PERIOD... ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING NON-STOP
DURING THIS TIME...AND PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP EVENT IS QUITE POSSIBLE DURING MID-
WEEK...WHEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES...INTERACTING WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED DURING NON-CAD PERIODS...AND BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DAYS OF TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD. HOWEVER...
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE LONE P-TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR VSBY IS HOLDING...DESPITE LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE
EAST. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE CIT WILL REFLECT THE
MODEL TIME HEIGHT PREFERENCE FOR LOW VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS
WILL VEER N AND THEN NE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING...A VSBY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KGSP
AND KGMU...MVFR CIGS AT KAVL AND KAND....AND NO CIG AT KHKY. VFR
VSBYS PREVAIL...DESPITE SOME LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE EAST. SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF KAVL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FIELD...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW VFR CIGS FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT HIGH END MVFR AT KAVL...HOWEVER DRYING
FROM ALOFT MAY INTRODUCE BREAKS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM N TO NE TODAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FROM
THE N UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SE. DRY LOW LEVEL
WILL PRECLUDE VSBY RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271436
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
936 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 0930 AM ...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO LOWER SKY AMOUNTS PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND TO BUMP MAX TEMPS UPWARD A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BESED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MORE INSOLATION. METARS AND
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THAT FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO WEAK NW FLOW. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS DRY THIS
ACTIVITY UP BY 18Z. HENCE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS. WILL LET THE
WSW FOR BLACK ICE IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPIRE AT NOON.

AT 0330 EST FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE USA THIS
MORNING...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER
CA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF VARIOUS IMPULSES CROSSING OUR AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES AS A
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SE. GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FROM NW TO N TO NE TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AS THE COOL AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK
ICE AND FREEZING FOG FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. AN SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINING ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL SEE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT...NOT CLASSICAL
DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS EASTERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE A DRY ONSET TO THE EVENT...AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SEND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE COOL...AS NE FLOW IS AIDED BY AN AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DEPICTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE ENTRANCE OF A
STRONG UPPER JET MAX. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS SAT AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ABOVE THE COOL DOME...IN RESPONSE TO
CENTRAL CONUS HEIGHT FALLS...WILL RESULT IN QUICK TRANSPORT OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE NAM REMAINING AS THE FASTEST
MODEL...WITH ONLY SLIGHT SUPPORT FROM THE SREF SYSTEM. IT IS ALSO
NOTEWORTHY THAT ONLY THE NAM DEPICTS MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ICE NUCLEATION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH EXPLAINS ITS MORE ROBUST
QPF...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT A DRIZZLE OR --RA EVENT. SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP/DZ BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE QUITE IMPORTANT...AS THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF ICE
NUCLEATION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ONSET TIME...BEFORE RAPID WARMING ALOFT WITHIN THE STRONG WAA REGIME
WOULD RESULT IN A CHANGE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THE CONCERN IS THAT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER STRONG HYBRID CAD...SOME LOCATIONS
COULD LOCK IN FREEZING TEMPS LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICE
ACCRETION...ESP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE
PIEDMONT. ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...DURATION AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
STILL VERY MUCH IN DOUBT...AND IF FREEZING RAIN WERE TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS...THE MOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED WOULD KEEP THE
EVENT SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFF SHORE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE TENN VALLEY. WHILE POPS GRADUALLY RAMP UP DURING THIS TIME...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY WEAKLY
FORCED...EVEN IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHERE VEERED WESTERLY/WEAKLY
CONVERGENT FLOW IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJOR
WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITH
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY
7. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...AS
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
IN FACT...BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN
OVER ANOTHER TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD AIR MASS. THUS...POPS FOR UPGLIDE
PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE DURING MUCH OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT PERIOD... ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING NON-STOP
DURING THIS TIME...AND PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP EVENT IS QUITE POSSIBLE DURING MID-
WEEK...WHEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES...INTERACTING WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED DURING NON-CAD PERIODS...AND BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DAYS OF TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD. HOWEVER...
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE LONE P-TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR VSBY IS HOLDING...DESPITE LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE
EAST. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE CIT WILL REFLECT THE
MODEL TIME HEIGHT PREFERENCE FOR LOW VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS
WILL VEER N AND THEN NE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING...A VSBY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KGSP
AND KGMU...MVFR CIGS AT KAVL AND KAND....AND NO CIG AT KHKY. VFR
VSBYS PREVAIL...DESPITE SOME LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE EAST. SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF KAVL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FIELD...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW VFR CIGS FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT HIGH END MVFR AT KAVL...HOWEVER DRYING
FROM ALOFT MAY INTRODUCE BREAKS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM N TO NE TODAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FROM
THE N UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SE. DRY LOW LEVEL
WILL PRECLUDE VSBY RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ010-017-018.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 271436
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
936 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 0930 AM ...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO LOWER SKY AMOUNTS PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND TO BUMP MAX TEMPS UPWARD A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BESED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MORE INSOLATION. METARS AND
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THAT FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO WEAK NW FLOW. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS DRY THIS
ACTIVITY UP BY 18Z. HENCE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS. WILL LET THE
WSW FOR BLACK ICE IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPIRE AT NOON.

AT 0330 EST FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE USA THIS
MORNING...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER
CA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF VARIOUS IMPULSES CROSSING OUR AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES AS A
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SE. GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FROM NW TO N TO NE TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AS THE COOL AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK
ICE AND FREEZING FOG FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. AN SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINING ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL SEE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT...NOT CLASSICAL
DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS EASTERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE A DRY ONSET TO THE EVENT...AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SEND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE COOL...AS NE FLOW IS AIDED BY AN AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DEPICTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE ENTRANCE OF A
STRONG UPPER JET MAX. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS SAT AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ABOVE THE COOL DOME...IN RESPONSE TO
CENTRAL CONUS HEIGHT FALLS...WILL RESULT IN QUICK TRANSPORT OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE NAM REMAINING AS THE FASTEST
MODEL...WITH ONLY SLIGHT SUPPORT FROM THE SREF SYSTEM. IT IS ALSO
NOTEWORTHY THAT ONLY THE NAM DEPICTS MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ICE NUCLEATION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH EXPLAINS ITS MORE ROBUST
QPF...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT A DRIZZLE OR --RA EVENT. SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP/DZ BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE QUITE IMPORTANT...AS THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF ICE
NUCLEATION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ONSET TIME...BEFORE RAPID WARMING ALOFT WITHIN THE STRONG WAA REGIME
WOULD RESULT IN A CHANGE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THE CONCERN IS THAT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER STRONG HYBRID CAD...SOME LOCATIONS
COULD LOCK IN FREEZING TEMPS LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICE
ACCRETION...ESP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE
PIEDMONT. ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...DURATION AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
STILL VERY MUCH IN DOUBT...AND IF FREEZING RAIN WERE TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS...THE MOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED WOULD KEEP THE
EVENT SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFF SHORE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE TENN VALLEY. WHILE POPS GRADUALLY RAMP UP DURING THIS TIME...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY WEAKLY
FORCED...EVEN IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHERE VEERED WESTERLY/WEAKLY
CONVERGENT FLOW IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJOR
WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITH
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY
7. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...AS
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
IN FACT...BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN
OVER ANOTHER TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD AIR MASS. THUS...POPS FOR UPGLIDE
PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE DURING MUCH OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT PERIOD... ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING NON-STOP
DURING THIS TIME...AND PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP EVENT IS QUITE POSSIBLE DURING MID-
WEEK...WHEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES...INTERACTING WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED DURING NON-CAD PERIODS...AND BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DAYS OF TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD. HOWEVER...
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE LONE P-TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR VSBY IS HOLDING...DESPITE LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE
EAST. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE CIT WILL REFLECT THE
MODEL TIME HEIGHT PREFERENCE FOR LOW VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS
WILL VEER N AND THEN NE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING...A VSBY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KGSP
AND KGMU...MVFR CIGS AT KAVL AND KAND....AND NO CIG AT KHKY. VFR
VSBYS PREVAIL...DESPITE SOME LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE EAST. SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF KAVL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FIELD...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW VFR CIGS FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT HIGH END MVFR AT KAVL...HOWEVER DRYING
FROM ALOFT MAY INTRODUCE BREAKS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM N TO NE TODAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FROM
THE N UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SE. DRY LOW LEVEL
WILL PRECLUDE VSBY RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ010-017-018.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271436
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
936 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 0930 AM ...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO LOWER SKY AMOUNTS PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND TO BUMP MAX TEMPS UPWARD A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BESED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MORE INSOLATION. METARS AND
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THAT FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO WEAK NW FLOW. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS DRY THIS
ACTIVITY UP BY 18Z. HENCE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS. WILL LET THE
WSW FOR BLACK ICE IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPIRE AT NOON.

AT 0330 EST FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE USA THIS
MORNING...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER
CA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF VARIOUS IMPULSES CROSSING OUR AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES AS A
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SE. GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FROM NW TO N TO NE TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AS THE COOL AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK
ICE AND FREEZING FOG FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. AN SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINING ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL SEE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT...NOT CLASSICAL
DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS EASTERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE A DRY ONSET TO THE EVENT...AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SEND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE COOL...AS NE FLOW IS AIDED BY AN AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DEPICTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE ENTRANCE OF A
STRONG UPPER JET MAX. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS SAT AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ABOVE THE COOL DOME...IN RESPONSE TO
CENTRAL CONUS HEIGHT FALLS...WILL RESULT IN QUICK TRANSPORT OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE NAM REMAINING AS THE FASTEST
MODEL...WITH ONLY SLIGHT SUPPORT FROM THE SREF SYSTEM. IT IS ALSO
NOTEWORTHY THAT ONLY THE NAM DEPICTS MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ICE NUCLEATION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH EXPLAINS ITS MORE ROBUST
QPF...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT A DRIZZLE OR --RA EVENT. SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP/DZ BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE QUITE IMPORTANT...AS THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF ICE
NUCLEATION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ONSET TIME...BEFORE RAPID WARMING ALOFT WITHIN THE STRONG WAA REGIME
WOULD RESULT IN A CHANGE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THE CONCERN IS THAT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER STRONG HYBRID CAD...SOME LOCATIONS
COULD LOCK IN FREEZING TEMPS LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICE
ACCRETION...ESP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE
PIEDMONT. ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...DURATION AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
STILL VERY MUCH IN DOUBT...AND IF FREEZING RAIN WERE TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS...THE MOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED WOULD KEEP THE
EVENT SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFF SHORE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE TENN VALLEY. WHILE POPS GRADUALLY RAMP UP DURING THIS TIME...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY WEAKLY
FORCED...EVEN IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHERE VEERED WESTERLY/WEAKLY
CONVERGENT FLOW IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJOR
WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITH
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY
7. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...AS
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
IN FACT...BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN
OVER ANOTHER TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD AIR MASS. THUS...POPS FOR UPGLIDE
PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE DURING MUCH OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT PERIOD... ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING NON-STOP
DURING THIS TIME...AND PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP EVENT IS QUITE POSSIBLE DURING MID-
WEEK...WHEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES...INTERACTING WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED DURING NON-CAD PERIODS...AND BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DAYS OF TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD. HOWEVER...
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE LONE P-TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR VSBY IS HOLDING...DESPITE LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE
EAST. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE CIT WILL REFLECT THE
MODEL TIME HEIGHT PREFERENCE FOR LOW VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS
WILL VEER N AND THEN NE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING...A VSBY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KGSP
AND KGMU...MVFR CIGS AT KAVL AND KAND....AND NO CIG AT KHKY. VFR
VSBYS PREVAIL...DESPITE SOME LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE EAST. SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF KAVL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FIELD...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW VFR CIGS FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT HIGH END MVFR AT KAVL...HOWEVER DRYING
FROM ALOFT MAY INTRODUCE BREAKS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM N TO NE TODAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FROM
THE N UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SE. DRY LOW LEVEL
WILL PRECLUDE VSBY RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ010-017-018.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 271436
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
936 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 0930 AM ...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO LOWER SKY AMOUNTS PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND TO BUMP MAX TEMPS UPWARD A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BESED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MORE INSOLATION. METARS AND
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THAT FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO WEAK NW FLOW. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS DRY THIS
ACTIVITY UP BY 18Z. HENCE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS. WILL LET THE
WSW FOR BLACK ICE IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPIRE AT NOON.

AT 0330 EST FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE USA THIS
MORNING...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER
CA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF VARIOUS IMPULSES CROSSING OUR AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES AS A
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SE. GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FROM NW TO N TO NE TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AS THE COOL AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK
ICE AND FREEZING FOG FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. AN SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINING ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL SEE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT...NOT CLASSICAL
DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS EASTERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE A DRY ONSET TO THE EVENT...AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SEND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE COOL...AS NE FLOW IS AIDED BY AN AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DEPICTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE ENTRANCE OF A
STRONG UPPER JET MAX. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS SAT AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ABOVE THE COOL DOME...IN RESPONSE TO
CENTRAL CONUS HEIGHT FALLS...WILL RESULT IN QUICK TRANSPORT OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE NAM REMAINING AS THE FASTEST
MODEL...WITH ONLY SLIGHT SUPPORT FROM THE SREF SYSTEM. IT IS ALSO
NOTEWORTHY THAT ONLY THE NAM DEPICTS MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ICE NUCLEATION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH EXPLAINS ITS MORE ROBUST
QPF...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT A DRIZZLE OR --RA EVENT. SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP/DZ BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE QUITE IMPORTANT...AS THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF ICE
NUCLEATION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ONSET TIME...BEFORE RAPID WARMING ALOFT WITHIN THE STRONG WAA REGIME
WOULD RESULT IN A CHANGE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THE CONCERN IS THAT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER STRONG HYBRID CAD...SOME LOCATIONS
COULD LOCK IN FREEZING TEMPS LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICE
ACCRETION...ESP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE
PIEDMONT. ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...DURATION AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
STILL VERY MUCH IN DOUBT...AND IF FREEZING RAIN WERE TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS...THE MOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED WOULD KEEP THE
EVENT SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFF SHORE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE TENN VALLEY. WHILE POPS GRADUALLY RAMP UP DURING THIS TIME...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY WEAKLY
FORCED...EVEN IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHERE VEERED WESTERLY/WEAKLY
CONVERGENT FLOW IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJOR
WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITH
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY
7. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...AS
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
IN FACT...BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN
OVER ANOTHER TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD AIR MASS. THUS...POPS FOR UPGLIDE
PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE DURING MUCH OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT PERIOD... ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING NON-STOP
DURING THIS TIME...AND PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP EVENT IS QUITE POSSIBLE DURING MID-
WEEK...WHEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES...INTERACTING WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED DURING NON-CAD PERIODS...AND BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DAYS OF TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD. HOWEVER...
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE LONE P-TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR VSBY IS HOLDING...DESPITE LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE
EAST. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE CIT WILL REFLECT THE
MODEL TIME HEIGHT PREFERENCE FOR LOW VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS
WILL VEER N AND THEN NE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING...A VSBY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KGSP
AND KGMU...MVFR CIGS AT KAVL AND KAND....AND NO CIG AT KHKY. VFR
VSBYS PREVAIL...DESPITE SOME LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE EAST. SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF KAVL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FIELD...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW VFR CIGS FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT HIGH END MVFR AT KAVL...HOWEVER DRYING
FROM ALOFT MAY INTRODUCE BREAKS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM N TO NE TODAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FROM
THE N UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SE. DRY LOW LEVEL
WILL PRECLUDE VSBY RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ010-017-018.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271109
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
609 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED FORM THE LATEST ADJMAV AND NAM.
POPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY NEAR THE TN BORDER PER RADAR TRENDS. AREAS
OF FOG WERE ADJUSTED PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

AT 0330 EST FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE USA THIS
MORNING...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER
CA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF VARIOUS IMPULSES CROSSING OUR AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES AS A
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SE. GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FROM NW TO N TO NE TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AS THE COOL AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK
ICE AND FREEZING FOG FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. AN SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINING ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL SEE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT...NOT CLASSICAL
DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS EASTERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE A DRY ONSET TO THE EVENT...AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SEND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE COOL...AS NE FLOW IS AIDED BY AN AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DEPICTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE ENTRANCE OF A
STRONG UPPER JET MAX. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS SAT AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ABOVE THE COOL DOME...IN RESPONSE TO
CENTRAL CONUS HEIGHT FALLS...WILL RESULT IN QUICK TRANSPORT OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE NAM REMAINING AS THE FASTEST
MODEL...WITH ONLY SLIGHT SUPPORT FROM THE SREF SYSTEM. IT IS ALSO
NOTEWORTHY THAT ONLY THE NAM DEPICTS MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ICE NUCLEATION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH EXPLAINS ITS MORE ROBUST
QPF...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT A DRIZZLE OR --RA EVENT. SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP/DZ BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE QUITE IMPORTANT...AS THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF ICE
NUCLEATION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ONSET TIME...BEFORE RAPID WARMING ALOFT WITHIN THE STRONG WAA REGIME
WOULD RESULT IN A CHANGE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THE CONCERN IS THAT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER STRONG HYBRID CAD...SOME LOCATIONS
COULD LOCK IN FREEZING TEMPS LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICE
ACCRETION...ESP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE
PIEDMONT. ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...DURATION AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
STILL VERY MUCH IN DOUBT...AND IF FREEZING RAIN WERE TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS...THE MOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED WOULD KEEP THE
EVENT SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFF SHORE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE TENN VALLEY. WHILE POPS GRADUALLY RAMP UP DURING THIS TIME...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY WEAKLY
FORCED...EVEN IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHERE VEERED WESTERLY/WEAKLY
CONVERGENT FLOW IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJOR
WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITH
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY
7. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...AS
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
IN FACT...BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN
OVER ANOTHER TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD AIR MASS. THUS...POPS FOR UPGLIDE
PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE DURING MUCH OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT PERIOD... ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING NON-STOP
DURING THIS TIME...AND PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP EVENT IS QUITE POSSIBLE DURING MID-
WEEK...WHEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES...INTERACTING WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED DURING NON-CAD PERIODS...AND BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DAYS OF TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD. HOWEVER...
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE LONE P-TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR VSBY IS HOLDING...DESPITE LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE
EAST. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE CIT WILL REFLECT THE
MODEL TIME HEIGHT PREFERENCE FOR LOW VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS
WILL VEER N AND THEN NE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING...A VSBY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KGSP
AND KGMU...MVFR CIGS AT KAVL AND KAND....AND NO CIG AT KHKY. VFR
VSBYS PREVAIL...DESPITE SOME LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE EAST. SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF KAVL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FIELD...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW VFR CIGS FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT HIGH END MVFR AT KAVL...HOWEVER DRYING
FROM ALOFT MAY INTRODUCE BREAKS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM N TO NE TODAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FROM
THE N UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SE. DRY LOW LEVEL
WILL PRECLUDE VSBY RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ010-017-018.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 271109
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
609 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED FORM THE LATEST ADJMAV AND NAM.
POPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY NEAR THE TN BORDER PER RADAR TRENDS. AREAS
OF FOG WERE ADJUSTED PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

AT 0330 EST FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE USA THIS
MORNING...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER
CA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF VARIOUS IMPULSES CROSSING OUR AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES AS A
COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SE. GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW FLOW ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL VEER FROM NW TO N TO NE TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AS THE COOL AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK
ICE AND FREEZING FOG FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. AN SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINING ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL SEE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT...NOT CLASSICAL
DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS EASTERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE A DRY ONSET TO THE EVENT...AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SEND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE COOL...AS NE FLOW IS AIDED BY AN AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DEPICTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE ENTRANCE OF A
STRONG UPPER JET MAX. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS SAT AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ABOVE THE COOL DOME...IN RESPONSE TO
CENTRAL CONUS HEIGHT FALLS...WILL RESULT IN QUICK TRANSPORT OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE NAM REMAINING AS THE FASTEST
MODEL...WITH ONLY SLIGHT SUPPORT FROM THE SREF SYSTEM. IT IS ALSO
NOTEWORTHY THAT ONLY THE NAM DEPICTS MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ICE NUCLEATION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH EXPLAINS ITS MORE ROBUST
QPF...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT A DRIZZLE OR --RA EVENT. SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP/DZ BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE QUITE IMPORTANT...AS THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF ICE
NUCLEATION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ONSET TIME...BEFORE RAPID WARMING ALOFT WITHIN THE STRONG WAA REGIME
WOULD RESULT IN A CHANGE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THE CONCERN IS THAT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER STRONG HYBRID CAD...SOME LOCATIONS
COULD LOCK IN FREEZING TEMPS LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICE
ACCRETION...ESP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE
PIEDMONT. ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...DURATION AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
STILL VERY MUCH IN DOUBT...AND IF FREEZING RAIN WERE TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS...THE MOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED WOULD KEEP THE
EVENT SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFF SHORE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE TENN VALLEY. WHILE POPS GRADUALLY RAMP UP DURING THIS TIME...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY WEAKLY
FORCED...EVEN IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHERE VEERED WESTERLY/WEAKLY
CONVERGENT FLOW IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJOR
WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITH
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY
7. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...AS
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
IN FACT...BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN
OVER ANOTHER TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD AIR MASS. THUS...POPS FOR UPGLIDE
PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE DURING MUCH OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT PERIOD... ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING NON-STOP
DURING THIS TIME...AND PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP EVENT IS QUITE POSSIBLE DURING MID-
WEEK...WHEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES...INTERACTING WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED DURING NON-CAD PERIODS...AND BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DAYS OF TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD. HOWEVER...
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE LONE P-TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR VSBY IS HOLDING...DESPITE LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE
EAST. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE CIT WILL REFLECT THE
MODEL TIME HEIGHT PREFERENCE FOR LOW VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS
WILL VEER N AND THEN NE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. WITH DRY LOW LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING...A VSBY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MVFR CIGS AT KGSP
AND KGMU...MVFR CIGS AT KAVL AND KAND....AND NO CIG AT KHKY. VFR
VSBYS PREVAIL...DESPITE SOME LOW RESTRICTIONS TO THE EAST. SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF KAVL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FIELD...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW VFR CIGS FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT HIGH END MVFR AT KAVL...HOWEVER DRYING
FROM ALOFT MAY INTRODUCE BREAKS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM N TO NE TODAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FROM
THE N UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SE. DRY LOW LEVEL
WILL PRECLUDE VSBY RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ010-017-018.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 270845
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 0230 EST FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE USA
THIS MORNING...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES. THE MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF VARIOUS IMPULSES CROSSING
OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
DECREASES AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE
SE. GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW FLOW ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK O F LIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL VEER FROM NW TO N TO NE TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AS THE COOL AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK
ICE AND POSSIBLE FREEZING FOG FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES
FOR TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW MORNING. AN SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL
BE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL SEE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT...NOT CLASSICAL
DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS EASTERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE A DRY ONSET TO THE EVENT...AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SEND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE COOL...AS NE FLOW IS AIDED BY AN AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DEPICTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE ENTRANCE OF A
STRONG UPPER JET MAX. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS SAT AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ABOVE THE COOL DOME...IN RESPONSE TO
CENTRAL CONUS HEIGHT FALLS...WILL RESULT IN QUICK TRANSPORT OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE NAM REMAINING AS THE FASTEST
MODEL...WITH ONLY SLIGHT SUPPORT FROM THE SREF SYSTEM. IT IS ALSO
NOTEWORTHY THAT ONLY THE NAM DEPICTS MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ICE NUCLEATION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH EXPLAINS ITS MORE ROBUST
QPF...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT A DRIZZLE OR --RA EVENT. SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP/DZ BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE QUITE IMPORTANT...AS THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF ICE
NUCLEATION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ONSET TIME...BEFORE RAPID WARMING ALOFT WITHIN THE STRONG WAA REGIME
WOULD RESULT IN A CHANGE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THE CONCERN IS THAT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER STRONG HYBRID CAD...SOME LOCATIONS
COULD LOCK IN FREEZING TEMPS LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICE
ACCRETION...ESP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE
PIEDMONT. ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...DURATION AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
STILL VERY MUCH IN DOUBT...AND IF FREEZING RAIN WERE TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS...THE MOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED WOULD KEEP THE
EVENT SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFF SHORE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE TENN VALLEY. WHILE POPS GRADUALLY RAMP UP DURING THIS TIME...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY WEAKLY
FORCED...EVEN IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHERE VEERED WESTERLY/WEAKLY
CONVERGENT FLOW IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJOR
WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITH
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY
7. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...AS
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
IN FACT...BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN
OVER ANOTHER TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD AIR MASS. THUS...POPS FOR UPGLIDE
PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE DURING MUCH OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT PERIOD... ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING NON-STOP
DURING THIS TIME...AND PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP EVENT IS QUITE POSSIBLE DURING MID-
WEEK...WHEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES...INTERACTING WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED DURING NON-CAD PERIODS...AND BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DAYS OF TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD. HOWEVER...
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE LONE P-TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC ON CIGS...AND MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LOW VFR CIG THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME IFR
VSBY HAD BEEN NOTED TO THE NE...BUT GUIDANCE INSISTS ON VFR. THE
FORECAST WILL BRING THE VSBY TO MVFR AROUND DAWN. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM NW TO NE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...AT MOST SITES...GUIDANCE WAS TOO OPTIMISTIC ON CIG
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW VFR
CIGS FOR MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT MVFR AT KAND...WHICH SHOULD LAST AT LEAST UNTIL DAYBREAK.
GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM NW TO NE TODAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE N.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ010-017-018.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 270845
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 0230 EST FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE USA
THIS MORNING...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES. THE MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF VARIOUS IMPULSES CROSSING
OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
DECREASES AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE
SE. GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW FLOW ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK O F LIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL VEER FROM NW TO N TO NE TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AS THE COOL AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK
ICE AND POSSIBLE FREEZING FOG FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES
FOR TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW MORNING. AN SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL
BE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL SEE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT...NOT CLASSICAL
DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS EASTERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE A DRY ONSET TO THE EVENT...AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SEND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE COOL...AS NE FLOW IS AIDED BY AN AREA OF SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DEPICTED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE ENTRANCE OF A
STRONG UPPER JET MAX. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS SAT AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ABOVE THE COOL DOME...IN RESPONSE TO
CENTRAL CONUS HEIGHT FALLS...WILL RESULT IN QUICK TRANSPORT OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THERE
REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE NAM REMAINING AS THE FASTEST
MODEL...WITH ONLY SLIGHT SUPPORT FROM THE SREF SYSTEM. IT IS ALSO
NOTEWORTHY THAT ONLY THE NAM DEPICTS MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ICE NUCLEATION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH EXPLAINS ITS MORE ROBUST
QPF...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ONLY SUPPORT A DRIZZLE OR --RA EVENT. SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP/DZ BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE QUITE IMPORTANT...AS THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF ICE
NUCLEATION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
ONSET TIME...BEFORE RAPID WARMING ALOFT WITHIN THE STRONG WAA REGIME
WOULD RESULT IN A CHANGE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THE CONCERN IS THAT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER STRONG HYBRID CAD...SOME LOCATIONS
COULD LOCK IN FREEZING TEMPS LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICE
ACCRETION...ESP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE
PIEDMONT. ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...DURATION AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS
STILL VERY MUCH IN DOUBT...AND IF FREEZING RAIN WERE TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS...THE MOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED WOULD KEEP THE
EVENT SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PARENT HIGH MIGRATES OFF SHORE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE TENN VALLEY. WHILE POPS GRADUALLY RAMP UP DURING THIS TIME...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VERY WEAKLY
FORCED...EVEN IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHERE VEERED WESTERLY/WEAKLY
CONVERGENT FLOW IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJOR
WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITH
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY
7. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...AS
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
IN FACT...BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN
OVER ANOTHER TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD AIR MASS. THUS...POPS FOR UPGLIDE
PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE DURING MUCH OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT PERIOD... ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING NON-STOP
DURING THIS TIME...AND PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP EVENT IS QUITE POSSIBLE DURING MID-
WEEK...WHEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES...INTERACTING WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED DURING NON-CAD PERIODS...AND BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DAYS OF TRANSIENT/HYBRID CAD. HOWEVER...
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE LONE P-TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC ON CIGS...AND MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LOW VFR CIG THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME IFR
VSBY HAD BEEN NOTED TO THE NE...BUT GUIDANCE INSISTS ON VFR. THE
FORECAST WILL BRING THE VSBY TO MVFR AROUND DAWN. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM NW TO NE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...AT MOST SITES...GUIDANCE WAS TOO OPTIMISTIC ON CIG
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW VFR
CIGS FOR MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT MVFR AT KAND...WHICH SHOULD LAST AT LEAST UNTIL DAYBREAK.
GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM NW TO NE TODAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE N.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ010-017-018.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 270516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1216 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM AND
ADJMAV...FAVORING GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.

930 PM UPDATE...SEEING LESS SUPPORT FROM MESO MODEL QPF PROGS AND
FROM MODEL PROFILES FOR UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN THE MTNS NEAR THE TENN
BORDER. ALSO CAN/T SEE THAT ANY SNOW HAS YET DEVELOPED FROM RADAR OR
WEBCAMS. BACKED OFF POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY BUT RETAINED AT LEAST A
SCHC THRU THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING LINGERING SNOW COVER...AND MOIST
SOILS WHERE SNOW MELTED TODAY...IT IS NOT SURPRISING NUMEROUS SITES
ARE REPORTING LIGHT FOG. PROFILES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO DENSE OR
PROLONGED FOG...WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE RAPID CHANGES IN VSBY ON OBS.
THE FOG MENTION ADDED AT 630 PM UPDATE HAS BEEN EXPANDED IN LIGHT OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS NOW EXPECTED. A CONCERN IS THAT IN AREAS
WHERE TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING THE FOG COULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL ICING
ON ROADWAYS. UPDATED THE WINTER WX ADVY THAT DAY SHIFT ISSUED FOR
BLACK ICE TO ALSO DISCUSS THIS CONCERN.

AS OF 630 PM...WEAK FROPA ON TAP FOR LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THIS STANDS TO BRING A PERIOD OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NW
PIEDMONT. SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS APPEAR TO SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA...SO THINK PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS OF LIGHT
PRECIP ARE ON TRACK. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A
RA/FZRA SPLIT OVER THIS AREA...BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AS OF 220 PM...SKY COVER SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS PROFILES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DRY. OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT BELOW
FRZ FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE VERY SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. A
WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE FOR ALL
BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW MORNING. AN
SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINING ZONES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH 40S OVER MOST OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST DOES NOT GET ANY LESS TRICKY FOR
THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE FLATTENING UPPER FLOW. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RIDGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AS A
HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT DEVELOPS. THE GFS IS ALONE IN
DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FRI NITE AND SAT AS SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AS THE THE CAD SETS UP. WILL LEAVE THE FCST
DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DO KEEP CLOUD COVER QUITE HIGH AS THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE CONTINUED COLD THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEEP
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE FASTER. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS BEST
CHC POP UNTIL AFTER 18Z...BUT MODEL BLENDS SHOW SLIGHT CHC POP
DEVELOPING LATE SAT NITE WITH CHC POP DEVELOPING BY NOON SUNDAY AND
EVEN SOME LIKELY POP ALONG THE NC/SC/GA BORDERS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE MODEL BLEND TIMING FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD DURING THIS TIME AND ALL
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE SHOWS FREEZING RAIN WOULD
DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS WITH THE EARLIER ONSET. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND AS WELL...BUT ALSO FOLLOW THE TREND OF WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY WITH P-TYPE CHANGING TO ALL LIQUID AROUND NOON. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF SHORE BUT
REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA...LIMITING ANY MAINTENANCE FLOW OF
DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE DAMMING REGION. STILL...HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE DAMMING REGION...WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND HIGHS WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTNS TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR NOW...EXPECT ANY EARLY QPF TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCRETION. LOWS SAT NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND A RATHER DEEP TROF INVOF
THE CALIF COAST. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND TO
WARRANT MAINLY CHC POPS ACRS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND LIKELY
POPS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM
ENUF TO KEEP PRECIP AS ALL RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...A 1028-1032 MB HIGH PRES WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST
STATES...RESULTING IN COLD AIR DAMMING SETTING UP ACRS THE REGION.
AT THIS POINT...THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY DIVERGE ON THE SENSIBLE WX
FCST FOR THE CWFA...WITH THE GFS MUCH WETTER...WHILE THE EC IS DRY.
I WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND/WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS LIKE A
COMPROMISE FOR POPS. THE ECMWF IS COLDER...AND LOCKS IN A MORE
NOTABLE IN-SITU WEDGE ONCE IT BRINGS PRECIP BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...I WENT WITH COMPROMISE ON TEMPS...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WITH HANDLING A CYCLONE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...AS THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS. THE GFS IS DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE LOW...BUT HAS A
SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF STATES AND
TRACK THRU THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS OVERALL SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT...SHOWING MORE OF AN ANAFRONT PRECIP PATTERN THRU
THURSDAY. IN EITHER CASE...WE COULD SEE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH
ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF DECENT QPF...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THRU
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LATEST DAYS 6-7 QPF GUIDANCE FROM WPC SHOWS
OVER AN INCH OF QPF ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND 1-3" ACRS THE MTNS. GOING
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WED-WED NIGHT...AND CHC POP FOR
THU-THU NIGHT. THE AREA SHUD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PLAINS LOW
ON WEDNESDAY...SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC ON CIGS...AND MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LOW VFR CIG THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME IFR
VSBY HAD BEEN NOTED TO THE NE...BUT GUIDANCE INSISTS ON VFR. THE
FORECAST WILL BRING THE VSBY TO MVFR AROUND DAWN. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM NW TO NE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...AT MOST SITES...GUIDANCE WAS TOO OPTIMISTIC ON CIG
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW VFR
CIGS FOR MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT MVFR AT KAND...WHICH SHOULD LAST AT LEAST UNTIL DAYBREAK.
GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM NW TO NE TODAY...EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE N.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ010-017-018.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT/JPT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 270251
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
951 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...SEEING LESS SUPPORT FROM MESO MODEL QPF PROGS AND
FROM MODEL PROFILES FOR UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN THE MTNS NEAR THE TENN
BORDER. ALSO CAN/T SEE THAT ANY SNOW HAS YET DEVELOPED FROM RADAR OR
WEBCAMS. BACKED OFF POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY BUT RETAINED AT LEAST A
SCHC THRU THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING LINGERING SNOW COVER...AND MOIST
SOILS WHERE SNOW MELTED TODAY...IT IS NOT SURPRISING NUMEROUS SITES
ARE REPORTING LIGHT FOG. PROFILES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO DENSE OR
PROLONGED FOG...WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE RAPID CHANGES IN VSBY ON OBS.
THE FOG MENTION ADDED AT 630 PM UPDATE HAS BEEN EXPANDED IN LIGHT OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS NOW EXPECTED. A CONCERN IS THAT IN AREAS
WHERE TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING THE FOG COULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL ICING
ON ROADWAYS. UPDATED THE WINTER WX ADVY THAT DAY SHIFT ISSUED FOR
BLACK ICE TO ALSO DISCUSS THIS CONCERN.

AS OF 630 PM...WEAK FROPA ON TAP FOR LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THIS STANDS TO BRING A PERIOD OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NW
PIEDMONT. SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS APPEAR TO SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA...SO THINK PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS OF LIGHT
PRECIP ARE ON TRACK. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A
RA/FZRA SPLIT OVER THIS AREA...BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AS OF 220 PM...SKY COVER SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS PROFILES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DRY. OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT BELOW
FRZ FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE VERY SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. A
WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE FOR ALL
BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW MORNING. AN
SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINING ZONES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH 40S OVER MOST OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST DOES NOT GET ANY LESS TRICKY FOR
THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE FLATTENING UPPER FLOW. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RIDGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AS A
HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT DEVELOPS. THE GFS IS ALONE IN
DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FRI NITE AND SAT AS SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AS THE THE CAD SETS UP. WILL LEAVE THE FCST
DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DO KEEP CLOUD COVER QUITE HIGH AS THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE CONTINUED COLD THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEEP
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE FASTER. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS BEST
CHC POP UNTIL AFTER 18Z...BUT MODEL BLENDS SHOW SLIGHT CHC POP
DEVELOPING LATE SAT NITE WITH CHC POP DEVELOPING BY NOON SUNDAY AND
EVEN SOME LIKELY POP ALONG THE NC/SC/GA BORDERS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE MODEL BLEND TIMING FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD DURING THIS TIME AND ALL
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE SHOWS FREEZING RAIN WOULD
DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS WITH THE EARLIER ONSET. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND AS WELL...BUT ALSO FOLLOW THE TREND OF WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY WITH P-TYPE CHANGING TO ALL LIQUID AROUND NOON. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF SHORE BUT
REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA...LIMITING ANY MAINTENANCE FLOW OF
DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE DAMMING REGION. STILL...HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE DAMMING REGION...WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND HIGHS WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTNS TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR NOW...EXPECT ANY EARLY QPF TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCRETION. LOWS SAT NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND A RATHER DEEP TROF INVOF
THE CALIF COAST. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND TO
WARRANT MAINLY CHC POPS ACRS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND LIKELY
POPS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM
ENUF TO KEEP PRECIP AS ALL RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...A 1028-1032 MB HIGH PRES WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST
STATES...RESULTING IN COLD AIR DAMMING SETTING UP ACRS THE REGION.
AT THIS POINT...THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY DIVERGE ON THE SENSIBLE WX
FCST FOR THE CWFA...WITH THE GFS MUCH WETTER...WHILE THE EC IS DRY.
I WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND/WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS LIKE A
COMPROMISE FOR POPS. THE ECMWF IS COLDER...AND LOCKS IN A MORE
NOTABLE IN-SITU WEDGE ONCE IT BRINGS PRECIP BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...I WENT WITH COMPROMISE ON TEMPS...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WITH HANDLING A CYCLONE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...AS THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS. THE GFS IS DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE LOW...BUT HAS A
SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF STATES AND
TRACK THRU THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS OVERALL SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT...SHOWING MORE OF AN ANAFRONT PRECIP PATTERN THRU
THURSDAY. IN EITHER CASE...WE COULD SEE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH
ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF DECENT QPF...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THRU
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LATEST DAYS 6-7 QPF GUIDANCE FROM WPC SHOWS
OVER AN INCH OF QPF ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND 1-3" ACRS THE MTNS. GOING
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WED-WED NIGHT...AND CHC POP FOR
THU-THU NIGHT. THE AREA SHUD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PLAINS LOW
ON WEDNESDAY...SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VERTICAL PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY A MIDLEVEL INVERSION AND
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE. A LOW VFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THRU THE EVENING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT
THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. HOWEVER AN MVFR CIG
WILL LIKELY RETURN FOR A WHILE INVOF THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WORKING
IN BEHIND IT AND LIFTING TO VFR IF NOT SCATTERING ALTOGETHER. SOILS
ARE VERY WET AFTER SNOWMELT ON THU...AND THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON
THE DRY SIDE SOME FOG MAY COME AND GO NEAR DAYBREAK. TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO BE SUBFREEZING AT THAT TIME AND LIGHT ICE DEPOSITION WOULD
BE EXPECTED IF THE FOG WERE SUFFICIENTLY DENSE. I FELT A TEMPO
FOR MVFR VSBY WAS WARRANTED. WILL ADVISE NEXT SHIFT OF FZFG RISK.
FLOW WILL REMAIN CALM OR VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY TONIGHT...VEERING
SLIGHTLY ON FRI. STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTN IS EXPECTED TO
BRING CIGS DOWN TO NEAR MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER
OVERNIGHT BENEATH AN ELEVATED INVERSION...THOUGH INITIALLY VFR FOR
THE MOST PART. NWLY FLOW AND SOME SFC INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL NEAR THE TENN BORDER AND MVFR CIGS SPILLING OVER TO
KAVL MOST OF THE NIGHT. FRONT ARRIVING LATE EVENING SHOULD BRING
MVFR BACK FOR A TIME. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY
TAF SITES...BUT A SLIGHT CHC OF RA OR FZRA /DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMP/
EXISTS OVER THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT OF NC...NEAR KHKY.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER PIEDMONT NC AND THE UPSTATE
WHERE SFC RH IS HIGH ENOUGH. A TEMPO MVFR MENTION IS MADE AT
KGSP/KGMU AND IFR AT KAND...THE LATTER BEING NEARER LAKE HARTWELL.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
FRI WITH CONTINUING LOW VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
     018.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ001>009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JPT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 270251
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
951 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...SEEING LESS SUPPORT FROM MESO MODEL QPF PROGS AND
FROM MODEL PROFILES FOR UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN THE MTNS NEAR THE TENN
BORDER. ALSO CAN/T SEE THAT ANY SNOW HAS YET DEVELOPED FROM RADAR OR
WEBCAMS. BACKED OFF POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY BUT RETAINED AT LEAST A
SCHC THRU THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING LINGERING SNOW COVER...AND MOIST
SOILS WHERE SNOW MELTED TODAY...IT IS NOT SURPRISING NUMEROUS SITES
ARE REPORTING LIGHT FOG. PROFILES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO DENSE OR
PROLONGED FOG...WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE RAPID CHANGES IN VSBY ON OBS.
THE FOG MENTION ADDED AT 630 PM UPDATE HAS BEEN EXPANDED IN LIGHT OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS NOW EXPECTED. A CONCERN IS THAT IN AREAS
WHERE TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING THE FOG COULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL ICING
ON ROADWAYS. UPDATED THE WINTER WX ADVY THAT DAY SHIFT ISSUED FOR
BLACK ICE TO ALSO DISCUSS THIS CONCERN.

AS OF 630 PM...WEAK FROPA ON TAP FOR LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THIS STANDS TO BRING A PERIOD OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NW
PIEDMONT. SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS APPEAR TO SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA...SO THINK PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS OF LIGHT
PRECIP ARE ON TRACK. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A
RA/FZRA SPLIT OVER THIS AREA...BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AS OF 220 PM...SKY COVER SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS PROFILES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DRY. OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT BELOW
FRZ FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE VERY SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. A
WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE FOR ALL
BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW MORNING. AN
SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINING ZONES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH 40S OVER MOST OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST DOES NOT GET ANY LESS TRICKY FOR
THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE FLATTENING UPPER FLOW. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RIDGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AS A
HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT DEVELOPS. THE GFS IS ALONE IN
DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FRI NITE AND SAT AS SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AS THE THE CAD SETS UP. WILL LEAVE THE FCST
DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DO KEEP CLOUD COVER QUITE HIGH AS THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE CONTINUED COLD THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEEP
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE FASTER. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS BEST
CHC POP UNTIL AFTER 18Z...BUT MODEL BLENDS SHOW SLIGHT CHC POP
DEVELOPING LATE SAT NITE WITH CHC POP DEVELOPING BY NOON SUNDAY AND
EVEN SOME LIKELY POP ALONG THE NC/SC/GA BORDERS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE MODEL BLEND TIMING FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD DURING THIS TIME AND ALL
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE SHOWS FREEZING RAIN WOULD
DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS WITH THE EARLIER ONSET. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND AS WELL...BUT ALSO FOLLOW THE TREND OF WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY WITH P-TYPE CHANGING TO ALL LIQUID AROUND NOON. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF SHORE BUT
REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA...LIMITING ANY MAINTENANCE FLOW OF
DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE DAMMING REGION. STILL...HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE DAMMING REGION...WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND HIGHS WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTNS TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR NOW...EXPECT ANY EARLY QPF TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCRETION. LOWS SAT NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND A RATHER DEEP TROF INVOF
THE CALIF COAST. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND TO
WARRANT MAINLY CHC POPS ACRS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND LIKELY
POPS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM
ENUF TO KEEP PRECIP AS ALL RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...A 1028-1032 MB HIGH PRES WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST
STATES...RESULTING IN COLD AIR DAMMING SETTING UP ACRS THE REGION.
AT THIS POINT...THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY DIVERGE ON THE SENSIBLE WX
FCST FOR THE CWFA...WITH THE GFS MUCH WETTER...WHILE THE EC IS DRY.
I WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND/WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS LIKE A
COMPROMISE FOR POPS. THE ECMWF IS COLDER...AND LOCKS IN A MORE
NOTABLE IN-SITU WEDGE ONCE IT BRINGS PRECIP BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...I WENT WITH COMPROMISE ON TEMPS...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WITH HANDLING A CYCLONE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...AS THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS. THE GFS IS DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE LOW...BUT HAS A
SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF STATES AND
TRACK THRU THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS OVERALL SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT...SHOWING MORE OF AN ANAFRONT PRECIP PATTERN THRU
THURSDAY. IN EITHER CASE...WE COULD SEE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH
ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF DECENT QPF...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THRU
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LATEST DAYS 6-7 QPF GUIDANCE FROM WPC SHOWS
OVER AN INCH OF QPF ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND 1-3" ACRS THE MTNS. GOING
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WED-WED NIGHT...AND CHC POP FOR
THU-THU NIGHT. THE AREA SHUD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PLAINS LOW
ON WEDNESDAY...SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VERTICAL PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY A MIDLEVEL INVERSION AND
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE. A LOW VFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THRU THE EVENING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT
THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. HOWEVER AN MVFR CIG
WILL LIKELY RETURN FOR A WHILE INVOF THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WORKING
IN BEHIND IT AND LIFTING TO VFR IF NOT SCATTERING ALTOGETHER. SOILS
ARE VERY WET AFTER SNOWMELT ON THU...AND THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON
THE DRY SIDE SOME FOG MAY COME AND GO NEAR DAYBREAK. TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO BE SUBFREEZING AT THAT TIME AND LIGHT ICE DEPOSITION WOULD
BE EXPECTED IF THE FOG WERE SUFFICIENTLY DENSE. I FELT A TEMPO
FOR MVFR VSBY WAS WARRANTED. WILL ADVISE NEXT SHIFT OF FZFG RISK.
FLOW WILL REMAIN CALM OR VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY TONIGHT...VEERING
SLIGHTLY ON FRI. STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTN IS EXPECTED TO
BRING CIGS DOWN TO NEAR MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER
OVERNIGHT BENEATH AN ELEVATED INVERSION...THOUGH INITIALLY VFR FOR
THE MOST PART. NWLY FLOW AND SOME SFC INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL NEAR THE TENN BORDER AND MVFR CIGS SPILLING OVER TO
KAVL MOST OF THE NIGHT. FRONT ARRIVING LATE EVENING SHOULD BRING
MVFR BACK FOR A TIME. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY
TAF SITES...BUT A SLIGHT CHC OF RA OR FZRA /DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMP/
EXISTS OVER THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT OF NC...NEAR KHKY.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER PIEDMONT NC AND THE UPSTATE
WHERE SFC RH IS HIGH ENOUGH. A TEMPO MVFR MENTION IS MADE AT
KGSP/KGMU AND IFR AT KAND...THE LATTER BEING NEARER LAKE HARTWELL.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
FRI WITH CONTINUING LOW VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
     018.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ001>009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JPT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 270009
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
709 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...THE LOW CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION SCATTERED LATE IN THE
DAY BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THEM WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BENEATH
ELEVATED INVERSION. WEAK FROPA ON TAP FOR LATE EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THIS STANDS TO BRING
A PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
NW PIEDMONT. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A RA/FZRA SPLIT
OVER THIS AREA...BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. CONSIDERING
LINGERING SNOW COVER...AND MOIST SOILS WHERE SNOW MELTED
TODAY...SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE. ADDED A FOG MENTION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWFA WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHEST.

AS OF 220 PM EST THURSDAY...SKY COVER SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS PROFILES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DRY. OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT BELOW
FRZ FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE VERY SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. A
WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE FOR ALL
BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW MORNING. AN
SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINING ZONES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH 40S OVER MOST OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST DOES NOT GET ANY LESS TRICKY FOR
THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE FLATTENING UPPER FLOW. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RIDGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AS A
HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT DEVELOPS. THE GFS IS ALONE IN
DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FRI NITE AND SAT AS SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AS THE THE CAD SETS UP. WILL LEAVE THE FCST
DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DO KEEP CLOUD COVER QUITE HIGH AS THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE CONTINUED COLD THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEEP
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE FASTER. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS BEST
CHC POP UNTIL AFTER 18Z...BUT MODEL BLENDS SHOW SLIGHT CHC POP
DEVELOPING LATE SAT NITE WITH CHC POP DEVELOPING BY NOON SUNDAY AND
EVEN SOME LIKELY POP ALONG THE NC/SC/GA BORDERS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE MODEL BLEND TIMING FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD DURING THIS TIME AND ALL
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE SHOWS FREEZING RAIN WOULD
DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS WITH THE EARLIER ONSET. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND AS WELL...BUT ALSO FOLLOW THE TREND OF WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY WITH P-TYPE CHANGING TO ALL LIQUID AROUND NOON. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF SHORE BUT
REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA...LIMITING ANY MAINTENANCE FLOW OF
DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE DAMMING REGION. STILL...HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE DAMMING REGION...WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND HIGHS WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTNS TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR NOW...EXPECT ANY EARLY QPF TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCRETION. LOWS SAT NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND A RATHER DEEP TROF INVOF
THE CALIF COAST. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND TO
WARRANT MAINLY CHC POPS ACRS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND LIKELY
POPS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM
ENUF TO KEEP PRECIP AS ALL RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...A 1028-1032 MB HIGH PRES WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST
STATES...RESULTING IN COLD AIR DAMMING SETTING UP ACRS THE REGION.
AT THIS POINT...THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY DIVERGE ON THE SENSIBLE WX
FCST FOR THE CWFA...WITH THE GFS MUCH WETTER...WHILE THE EC IS DRY.
I WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND/WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS LIKE A
COMPROMISE FOR POPS. THE ECMWF IS COLDER...AND LOCKS IN A MORE
NOTABLE IN-SITU WEDGE ONCE IT BRINGS PRECIP BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...I WENT WITH COMPROMISE ON TEMPS...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WITH HANDLING A CYCLONE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...AS THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS. THE GFS IS DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE LOW...BUT HAS A
SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF STATES AND
TRACK THRU THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS OVERALL SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT...SHOWING MORE OF AN ANAFRONT PRECIP PATTERN THRU
THURSDAY. IN EITHER CASE...WE COULD SEE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH
ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF DECENT QPF...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THRU
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LATEST DAYS 6-7 QPF GUIDANCE FROM WPC SHOWS
OVER AN INCH OF QPF ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND 1-3" ACRS THE MTNS. GOING
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WED-WED NIGHT...AND CHC POP FOR
THU-THU NIGHT. THE AREA SHUD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PLAINS LOW
ON WEDNESDAY...SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VERTICAL PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY A MIDLEVEL INVERSION AND
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE. A LOW VFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THRU THE EVENING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT
THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. HOWEVER AN MVFR CIG
WILL LIKELY RETURN FOR A WHILE INVOF THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WORKING
IN BEHIND IT AND LIFTING TO VFR IF NOT SCATTERING ALTOGETHER. SOILS
ARE VERY WET AFTER SNOWMELT ON THU...AND THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON
THE DRY SIDE SOME FOG MAY COME AND GO NEAR DAYBREAK. TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO BE SUBFREEZING AT THAT TIME AND LIGHT ICE DEPOSITION WOULD
BE EXPECTED IF THE FOG WERE SUFFICIENTLY DENSE. I FELT A TEMPO
FOR MVFR VSBY WAS WARRANTED. WILL ADVISE NEXT SHIFT OF FZFG RISK.
FLOW WILL REMAIN CALM OR VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY TONIGHT...VEERING
SLIGHTLY ON FRI. STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTN IS EXPECTED TO
BRING CIGS DOWN TO NEAR MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER
OVERNIGHT BENEATH AN ELEVATED INVERSION...THOUGH INITIALLY VFR FOR
THE MOST PART. NWLY FLOW AND SOME SFC INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL NEAR THE TENN BORDER AND MVFR CIGS SPILLING OVER TO
KAVL MOST OF THE NIGHT. FRONT ARRIVING LATE EVENING SHOULD BRING
MVFR BACK FOR A TIME. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY
TAF SITES...BUT A SLIGHT CHC OF RA OR FZRA /DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMP/
EXISTS OVER THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT OF NC...NEAR KHKY.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER PIEDMONT NC AND THE UPSTATE
WHERE SFC RH IS HIGH ENOUGH. A TEMPO MVFR MENTION IS MADE AT
KGSP/KGMU AND IFR AT KAND...THE LATTER BEING NEARER LAKE HARTWELL.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
FRI WITH CONTINUING LOW VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
     018.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ001>009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JPT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 270009
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
709 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...THE LOW CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION SCATTERED LATE IN THE
DAY BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THEM WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BENEATH
ELEVATED INVERSION. WEAK FROPA ON TAP FOR LATE EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THIS STANDS TO BRING
A PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
NW PIEDMONT. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A RA/FZRA SPLIT
OVER THIS AREA...BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. CONSIDERING
LINGERING SNOW COVER...AND MOIST SOILS WHERE SNOW MELTED
TODAY...SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE. ADDED A FOG MENTION
TO PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWFA WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHEST.

AS OF 220 PM EST THURSDAY...SKY COVER SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS PROFILES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DRY. OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT BELOW
FRZ FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE VERY SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. A
WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE FOR ALL
BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW MORNING. AN
SPS FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINING ZONES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH 40S OVER MOST OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST DOES NOT GET ANY LESS TRICKY FOR
THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE FLATTENING UPPER FLOW. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RIDGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AS A
HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT DEVELOPS. THE GFS IS ALONE IN
DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FRI NITE AND SAT AS SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AS THE THE CAD SETS UP. WILL LEAVE THE FCST
DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DO KEEP CLOUD COVER QUITE HIGH AS THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE CONTINUED COLD THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEEP
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE FASTER. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS BEST
CHC POP UNTIL AFTER 18Z...BUT MODEL BLENDS SHOW SLIGHT CHC POP
DEVELOPING LATE SAT NITE WITH CHC POP DEVELOPING BY NOON SUNDAY AND
EVEN SOME LIKELY POP ALONG THE NC/SC/GA BORDERS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE MODEL BLEND TIMING FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD DURING THIS TIME AND ALL
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE SHOWS FREEZING RAIN WOULD
DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS WITH THE EARLIER ONSET. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND AS WELL...BUT ALSO FOLLOW THE TREND OF WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY WITH P-TYPE CHANGING TO ALL LIQUID AROUND NOON. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF SHORE BUT
REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA...LIMITING ANY MAINTENANCE FLOW OF
DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE DAMMING REGION. STILL...HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE DAMMING REGION...WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND HIGHS WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTNS TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR NOW...EXPECT ANY EARLY QPF TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCRETION. LOWS SAT NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND A RATHER DEEP TROF INVOF
THE CALIF COAST. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND TO
WARRANT MAINLY CHC POPS ACRS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND LIKELY
POPS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM
ENUF TO KEEP PRECIP AS ALL RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...A 1028-1032 MB HIGH PRES WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST
STATES...RESULTING IN COLD AIR DAMMING SETTING UP ACRS THE REGION.
AT THIS POINT...THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY DIVERGE ON THE SENSIBLE WX
FCST FOR THE CWFA...WITH THE GFS MUCH WETTER...WHILE THE EC IS DRY.
I WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND/WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS LIKE A
COMPROMISE FOR POPS. THE ECMWF IS COLDER...AND LOCKS IN A MORE
NOTABLE IN-SITU WEDGE ONCE IT BRINGS PRECIP BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...I WENT WITH COMPROMISE ON TEMPS...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WITH HANDLING A CYCLONE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...AS THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS. THE GFS IS DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE LOW...BUT HAS A
SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF STATES AND
TRACK THRU THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS OVERALL SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT...SHOWING MORE OF AN ANAFRONT PRECIP PATTERN THRU
THURSDAY. IN EITHER CASE...WE COULD SEE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH
ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF DECENT QPF...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THRU
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LATEST DAYS 6-7 QPF GUIDANCE FROM WPC SHOWS
OVER AN INCH OF QPF ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND 1-3" ACRS THE MTNS. GOING
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WED-WED NIGHT...AND CHC POP FOR
THU-THU NIGHT. THE AREA SHUD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PLAINS LOW
ON WEDNESDAY...SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VERTICAL PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY A MIDLEVEL INVERSION AND
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE. A LOW VFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THRU THE EVENING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT
THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. HOWEVER AN MVFR CIG
WILL LIKELY RETURN FOR A WHILE INVOF THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WORKING
IN BEHIND IT AND LIFTING TO VFR IF NOT SCATTERING ALTOGETHER. SOILS
ARE VERY WET AFTER SNOWMELT ON THU...AND THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON
THE DRY SIDE SOME FOG MAY COME AND GO NEAR DAYBREAK. TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO BE SUBFREEZING AT THAT TIME AND LIGHT ICE DEPOSITION WOULD
BE EXPECTED IF THE FOG WERE SUFFICIENTLY DENSE. I FELT A TEMPO
FOR MVFR VSBY WAS WARRANTED. WILL ADVISE NEXT SHIFT OF FZFG RISK.
FLOW WILL REMAIN CALM OR VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY TONIGHT...VEERING
SLIGHTLY ON FRI. STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTN IS EXPECTED TO
BRING CIGS DOWN TO NEAR MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER
OVERNIGHT BENEATH AN ELEVATED INVERSION...THOUGH INITIALLY VFR FOR
THE MOST PART. NWLY FLOW AND SOME SFC INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL NEAR THE TENN BORDER AND MVFR CIGS SPILLING OVER TO
KAVL MOST OF THE NIGHT. FRONT ARRIVING LATE EVENING SHOULD BRING
MVFR BACK FOR A TIME. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY
TAF SITES...BUT A SLIGHT CHC OF RA OR FZRA /DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMP/
EXISTS OVER THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT OF NC...NEAR KHKY.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER PIEDMONT NC AND THE UPSTATE
WHERE SFC RH IS HIGH ENOUGH. A TEMPO MVFR MENTION IS MADE AT
KGSP/KGMU AND IFR AT KAND...THE LATTER BEING NEARER LAKE HARTWELL.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
FRI WITH CONTINUING LOW VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
     018.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ001>009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JPT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 261952
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EST THURSDAY...WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME SPOTTY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER MOSTLY OVERCAST
TO BKN CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SKY COVER SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS PROFILES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DRY.
OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT BELOW FRZ FOR
ALL ZONES EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE VERY SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. A WINTER WX
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE FOR ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW MORNING. AN SPS FOR
PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINING ZONES. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH 40S OVER MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CWFA
SHOULD BE DRY THRU NEAR TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NC/TENN
BORDER REGION AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERNMOST NC FOOTHILLS WERE SOME
LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST DOES NOT GET ANY LESS TRICKY FOR
THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE FLATTENING UPPER FLOW. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RIDGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AS A
HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT DEVELOPS. THE GFS IS ALONE IN
DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FRI NITE AND SAT AS SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AS THE THE CAD SETS UP. WILL LEAVE THE FCST
DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DO KEEP CLOUD COVER QUITE HIGH AS THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE CONTINUED COLD THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEEP
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE FASTER. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS BEST
CHC POP UNTIL AFTER 18Z...BUT MODEL BLENDS SHOW SLIGHT CHC POP
DEVELOPING LATE SAT NITE WITH CHC POP DEVELOPING BY NOON SUNDAY AND
EVEN SOME LIKELY POP ALONG THE NC/SC/GA BORDERS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE MODEL BLEND TIMING FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD DURING THIS TIME AND ALL
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE SHOWS FREEZING RAIN WOULD
DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS WITH THE EARLIER ONSET. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND AS WELL...BUT ALSO FOLLOW THE TREND OF WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY WITH P-TYPE CHANGING TO ALL LIQUID AROUND NOON. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF SHORE BUT
REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA...LIMITING ANY MAINTENANCE FLOW OF
DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE DAMMING REGION. STILL...HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE DAMMING REGION...WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND HIGHS WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTNS TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR NOW...EXPECT ANY EARLY QPF TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCRETION. LOWS SAT NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND A RATHER DEEP TROF INVOF
THE CALIF COAST. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND TO
WARRANT MAINLY CHC POPS ACRS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND LIKELY
POPS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM
ENUF TO KEEP PRECIP AS ALL RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...A 1028-1032 MB HIGH PRES WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST
STATES...RESULTING IN COLD AIR DAMMING SETTING UP ACRS THE REGION.
AT THIS POINT...THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY DIVERGE ON THE SENSIBLE WX
FCST FOR THE CWFA...WITH THE GFS MUCH WETTER...WHILE THE EC IS DRY.
I WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND/WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS LIKE A
COMPROMISE FOR POPS. THE ECMWF IS COLDER...AND LOCKS IN A MORE
NOTABLE IN-SITU WEDGE ONCE IT BRINGS PRECIP BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...I WENT WITH COMPROMISE ON TEMPS...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WITH HANDLING A CYCLONE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...AS THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS. THE GFS IS DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE LOW...BUT HAS A
SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF STATES AND
TRACK THRU THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS OVERALL SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT...SHOWING MORE OF AN ANAFRONT PRECIP PATTERN THRU
THURSDAY. IN EITHER CASE...WE COULD SEE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH
ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF DECENT QPF...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THRU
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LATEST DAYS 6-7 QPF GUIDANCE FROM WPC SHOWS
OVER AN INCH OF QPF ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND 1-3" ACRS THE MTNS. GOING
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WED-WED NIGHT...AND CHC POP FOR
THU-THU NIGHT. THE AREA SHUD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PLAINS LOW
ON WEDNESDAY...SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE PESSIMISTIC OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WRT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING I EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE MVFR
CIGS WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN SITES CLT AND HKY...COULD SEE VALUES
LIFT BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE CLT COULD ALSO
SEE SOME REDUCED VISBY EARLY TOMORROW...BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6 AND
12Z...HOWEVER THIS PROBABLY WONT MATERIALIZE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND PREDOMINATELY NLY WITH SOME PERIODS OF VRB TO CALM DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. BY 12Z TOMORROW A MORE NELY COMPONENT
WILL LIKELY SET IN.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-
     509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
     510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR SCZ001>009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JPT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261952
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EST THURSDAY...WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME SPOTTY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER MOSTLY OVERCAST
TO BKN CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SKY COVER SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS PROFILES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DRY.
OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT BELOW FRZ FOR
ALL ZONES EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE VERY SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. A WINTER WX
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE FOR ALL BUT OUR
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW MORNING. AN SPS FOR
PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINING ZONES. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH 40S OVER MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CWFA
SHOULD BE DRY THRU NEAR TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NC/TENN
BORDER REGION AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERNMOST NC FOOTHILLS WERE SOME
LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST DOES NOT GET ANY LESS TRICKY FOR
THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE FLATTENING UPPER FLOW. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RIDGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AS A
HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT DEVELOPS. THE GFS IS ALONE IN
DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT PRECIP FRI NITE AND SAT AS SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AS THE THE CAD SETS UP. WILL LEAVE THE FCST
DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DO KEEP CLOUD COVER QUITE HIGH AS THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE CONTINUED COLD THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEEP
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE FASTER. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS BEST
CHC POP UNTIL AFTER 18Z...BUT MODEL BLENDS SHOW SLIGHT CHC POP
DEVELOPING LATE SAT NITE WITH CHC POP DEVELOPING BY NOON SUNDAY AND
EVEN SOME LIKELY POP ALONG THE NC/SC/GA BORDERS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE MODEL BLEND TIMING FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COLD DURING THIS TIME AND ALL
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE SHOWS FREEZING RAIN WOULD
DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS WITH THE EARLIER ONSET. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND AS WELL...BUT ALSO FOLLOW THE TREND OF WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY WITH P-TYPE CHANGING TO ALL LIQUID AROUND NOON. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF SHORE BUT
REMAINING RIDGED INTO THE AREA...LIMITING ANY MAINTENANCE FLOW OF
DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE DAMMING REGION. STILL...HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE DAMMING REGION...WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND HIGHS WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTNS TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR NOW...EXPECT ANY EARLY QPF TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCRETION. LOWS SAT NITE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL START OUT WITH A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND A RATHER DEEP TROF INVOF
THE CALIF COAST. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND TO
WARRANT MAINLY CHC POPS ACRS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND LIKELY
POPS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM
ENUF TO KEEP PRECIP AS ALL RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...A 1028-1032 MB HIGH PRES WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST
STATES...RESULTING IN COLD AIR DAMMING SETTING UP ACRS THE REGION.
AT THIS POINT...THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY DIVERGE ON THE SENSIBLE WX
FCST FOR THE CWFA...WITH THE GFS MUCH WETTER...WHILE THE EC IS DRY.
I WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND/WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS LIKE A
COMPROMISE FOR POPS. THE ECMWF IS COLDER...AND LOCKS IN A MORE
NOTABLE IN-SITU WEDGE ONCE IT BRINGS PRECIP BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...I WENT WITH COMPROMISE ON TEMPS...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WITH HANDLING A CYCLONE TRACKING THRU THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...AS THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS. THE GFS IS DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE LOW...BUT HAS A
SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF STATES AND
TRACK THRU THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECWMF IS OVERALL SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT...SHOWING MORE OF AN ANAFRONT PRECIP PATTERN THRU
THURSDAY. IN EITHER CASE...WE COULD SEE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH
ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF DECENT QPF...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THRU
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LATEST DAYS 6-7 QPF GUIDANCE FROM WPC SHOWS
OVER AN INCH OF QPF ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND 1-3" ACRS THE MTNS. GOING
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WED-WED NIGHT...AND CHC POP FOR
THU-THU NIGHT. THE AREA SHUD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PLAINS LOW
ON WEDNESDAY...SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE PESSIMISTIC OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WRT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING I EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE MVFR
CIGS WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN SITES CLT AND HKY...COULD SEE VALUES
LIFT BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE CLT COULD ALSO
SEE SOME REDUCED VISBY EARLY TOMORROW...BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6 AND
12Z...HOWEVER THIS PROBABLY WONT MATERIALIZE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND PREDOMINATELY NLY WITH SOME PERIODS OF VRB TO CALM DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. BY 12Z TOMORROW A MORE NELY COMPONENT
WILL LIKELY SET IN.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-
     509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
     510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR SCZ001>009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JPT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 261811
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
111 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST THURSDAY...ALL WINTER WX ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE ON TIME. WIDESPREAD OVERCAST TO BKN CIGS CONTINUE TO
PERSIST OVER THE REGION WITH FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THRU THE REST OF THE DAY/EVENING. HIGH TEMPS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID
30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 955 AM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH THE REMAINING COUNTIES STILL IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY HAS OVERCAST SKIES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000FT FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SMALL BREAKS
IN THE COVER ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NE GA. TEMPS WILL WARM SLOWLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS WARMING WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BY NOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE SC
UPSTATE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. STILL EXPECTING SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT NW FLOW SNOW OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION WITH
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND BEST QPF AFTER 20Z OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...SOME INTERESTING LITTLE PROBLEMS IN THE FCST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINLY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
HANDLING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. OVERALL...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL BE UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING IN
THE NRN STREAM SUPPORTING A COLD HIGH MOVING PAST TO THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF ON THE TN BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE FIRST
MINOR PROBLEM IS THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ON THE GFS ON FRIDAY. THE GFS USES THAT MOISTURE TO
DEVELOP SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
CAROLINAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THAT WOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL NAM DOES
NOT...BECAUSE OF MUCH LESS MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PREFER TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO POSITION ON SATURDAY TO OUR NE
TO SUPPORT COLD AIR DAMMING. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT. THE NEXT PROBLEM ARISES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGH SLIPPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE ISSUE
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC AND
MOVES ISENTROPICALLY UP AND OVER THE SHALLOW COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
FOCUS ON GEORGIA AND ALABAMA THRU 12Z SUNDAY. THE NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA W OF I-77 INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR
AT THE SFC...TO THE POINT WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WOULD BE
NEEDED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...
PREFER TO SIDESTEP THE ISSUE AND FAVOR THE DRY SOLUTIONS...WHICH
HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE MEAN QPF ON THE 03Z SREF. WILL RAMP UP THE
PRECIP CHANCES IN A DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SUNDAY MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE STILL PROMISES AN UPPER
PATTERN CHANGE WITH RIDGING IN THE EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS KIND
OF BROAD AND FLAT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
THE MODELS DROP DOWN FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LAY OUT
ACROSS THE REGION E TO W ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
NECESSITATE A CHANCE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL AT
LEAST BE FOR RAIN...AS TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE NOT
MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH TEMP ON
TUESDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
ANOTHER TRANSITORY HIGH TO THE NORTH PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER WEDGE.
THE HIGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MEAN SW FLOW SHOULD
DESTROY ANY REMAINING WEDGE-LIKE FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE PESSIMISTIC OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WRT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING I EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE MVFR
CIGS WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN SITES CLT AND HKY...COULD SEE VALUES
LIFT BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE CLT COULD ALSO
SEE SOME REDUCED VISBY EARLY TOMORROW...BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6 AND
12Z...HOWEVER THIS PROBABLY WONT MATERIALIZE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND PREDOMINATELY NLY WITH SOME PERIODS OF VRB TO CALM DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. BY 12Z TOMORROW A MORE NELY COMPONENT
WILL LIKELY SET IN.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 261811
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
111 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST THURSDAY...ALL WINTER WX ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE ON TIME. WIDESPREAD OVERCAST TO BKN CIGS CONTINUE TO
PERSIST OVER THE REGION WITH FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THRU THE REST OF THE DAY/EVENING. HIGH TEMPS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID
30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 955 AM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH THE REMAINING COUNTIES STILL IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY HAS OVERCAST SKIES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000FT FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SMALL BREAKS
IN THE COVER ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NE GA. TEMPS WILL WARM SLOWLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS WARMING WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BY NOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE SC
UPSTATE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. STILL EXPECTING SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT NW FLOW SNOW OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION WITH
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND BEST QPF AFTER 20Z OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...SOME INTERESTING LITTLE PROBLEMS IN THE FCST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINLY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
HANDLING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. OVERALL...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL BE UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING IN
THE NRN STREAM SUPPORTING A COLD HIGH MOVING PAST TO THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF ON THE TN BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE FIRST
MINOR PROBLEM IS THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ON THE GFS ON FRIDAY. THE GFS USES THAT MOISTURE TO
DEVELOP SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
CAROLINAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THAT WOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL NAM DOES
NOT...BECAUSE OF MUCH LESS MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PREFER TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO POSITION ON SATURDAY TO OUR NE
TO SUPPORT COLD AIR DAMMING. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT. THE NEXT PROBLEM ARISES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGH SLIPPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE ISSUE
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC AND
MOVES ISENTROPICALLY UP AND OVER THE SHALLOW COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
FOCUS ON GEORGIA AND ALABAMA THRU 12Z SUNDAY. THE NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA W OF I-77 INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR
AT THE SFC...TO THE POINT WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WOULD BE
NEEDED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...
PREFER TO SIDESTEP THE ISSUE AND FAVOR THE DRY SOLUTIONS...WHICH
HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE MEAN QPF ON THE 03Z SREF. WILL RAMP UP THE
PRECIP CHANCES IN A DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SUNDAY MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE STILL PROMISES AN UPPER
PATTERN CHANGE WITH RIDGING IN THE EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS KIND
OF BROAD AND FLAT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
THE MODELS DROP DOWN FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LAY OUT
ACROSS THE REGION E TO W ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
NECESSITATE A CHANCE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL AT
LEAST BE FOR RAIN...AS TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE NOT
MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH TEMP ON
TUESDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
ANOTHER TRANSITORY HIGH TO THE NORTH PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER WEDGE.
THE HIGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MEAN SW FLOW SHOULD
DESTROY ANY REMAINING WEDGE-LIKE FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE PESSIMISTIC OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WRT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING I EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE MVFR
CIGS WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN SITES CLT AND HKY...COULD SEE VALUES
LIFT BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE CLT COULD ALSO
SEE SOME REDUCED VISBY EARLY TOMORROW...BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6 AND
12Z...HOWEVER THIS PROBABLY WONT MATERIALIZE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND PREDOMINATELY NLY WITH SOME PERIODS OF VRB TO CALM DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. BY 12Z TOMORROW A MORE NELY COMPONENT
WILL LIKELY SET IN.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ONCE MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND CIGS LOWER.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261510
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1010 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES FROM THE WEST.  COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH THE REMAINING COUNTIES STILL IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY HAS OVERCAST SKIES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000FT FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SMALL BREAKS
IN THE COVER ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NE GA. TEMPS WILL WARM SLOWLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS WARMING WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BY NOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE SC
UPSTATE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. STILL EXPECTING SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT NW FLOW SNOW OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION WITH
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND BEST QPF AFTER 20Z OR SO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SLASHED POPS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE TN LINE AS WEAK NWFS
REGIME ESTABLISHES.  OTHERWISE...STILL FORECASTING TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN OF GA/SC/NC
TODAY WHICH AIDED BY OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN SKY COVER...WILL WORK TO
MELT SOME OF THE SNOW COVER.  AS FOR PRODUCTS...WINTER STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN CANCELLED ENTIRELY AND REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SPECIFICALLY HIGHLIGHTING SLICK ROADWAY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...SOME INTERESTING LITTLE PROBLEMS IN THE FCST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINLY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
HANDLING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. OVERALL...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL BE UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING IN
THE NRN STREAM SUPPORTING A COLD HIGH MOVING PAST TO THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF ON THE TN BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE FIRST
MINOR PROBLEM IS THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ON THE GFS ON FRIDAY. THE GFS USES THAT MOISTURE TO
DEVELOP SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
CAROLINAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THAT WOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL NAM DOES
NOT...BECAUSE OF MUCH LESS MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PREFER TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO POSITION ON SATURDAY TO OUR NE
TO SUPPORT COLD AIR DAMMING. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT. THE NEXT PROBLEM ARISES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGH SLIPPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE ISSUE
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC AND
MOVES ISENTROPICALLY UP AND OVER THE SHALLOW COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
FOCUS ON GEORGIA AND ALABAMA THRU 12Z SUNDAY. THE NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA W OF I-77 INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR
AT THE SFC...TO THE POINT WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WOULD BE
NEEDED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...
PREFER TO SIDESTEP THE ISSUE AND FAVOR THE DRY SOLUTIONS...WHICH
HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE MEAN QPF ON THE 03Z SREF. WILL RAMP UP THE
PRECIP CHANCES IN A DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SUNDAY MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE STILL PROMISES AN UPPER
PATTERN CHANGE WITH RIDGING IN THE EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS KIND
OF BROAD AND FLAT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
THE MODELS DROP DOWN FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LAY OUT
ACROSS THE REGION E TO W ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
NECESSITATE A CHANCE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL AT
LEAST BE FOR RAIN...AS TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE NOT
MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH TEMP ON
TUESDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
ANOTHER TRANSITORY HIGH TO THE NORTH PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER WEDGE.
THE HIGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MEAN SW FLOW SHOULD
DESTROY ANY REMAINING WEDGE-LIKE FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TIMES AT
ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS EITHER VFR...OR WITH A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR SPECIFICALLY ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE LINGERING LOW CIGS
DOMINATE FROM ERODING SN SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS THROUGH MORNING WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH END MVFR AROUND EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER
WAVE SLIDES ATOP MOIST LAYER.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF A TRANSITIONING HIGH WHEN FLOW WILL
BE VRB/NW IN THE 3-4KTS RANGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-072-501>510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ001>003.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261510
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1010 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES FROM THE WEST.  COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH THE REMAINING COUNTIES STILL IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY HAS OVERCAST SKIES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000FT FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SMALL BREAKS
IN THE COVER ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NE GA. TEMPS WILL WARM SLOWLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS WARMING WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BY NOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE SC
UPSTATE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. STILL EXPECTING SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT NW FLOW SNOW OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION WITH
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND BEST QPF AFTER 20Z OR SO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SLASHED POPS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE TN LINE AS WEAK NWFS
REGIME ESTABLISHES.  OTHERWISE...STILL FORECASTING TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN OF GA/SC/NC
TODAY WHICH AIDED BY OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN SKY COVER...WILL WORK TO
MELT SOME OF THE SNOW COVER.  AS FOR PRODUCTS...WINTER STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN CANCELLED ENTIRELY AND REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SPECIFICALLY HIGHLIGHTING SLICK ROADWAY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...SOME INTERESTING LITTLE PROBLEMS IN THE FCST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINLY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
HANDLING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. OVERALL...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL BE UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING IN
THE NRN STREAM SUPPORTING A COLD HIGH MOVING PAST TO THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF ON THE TN BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE FIRST
MINOR PROBLEM IS THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ON THE GFS ON FRIDAY. THE GFS USES THAT MOISTURE TO
DEVELOP SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
CAROLINAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THAT WOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL NAM DOES
NOT...BECAUSE OF MUCH LESS MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PREFER TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO POSITION ON SATURDAY TO OUR NE
TO SUPPORT COLD AIR DAMMING. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT. THE NEXT PROBLEM ARISES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGH SLIPPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE ISSUE
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC AND
MOVES ISENTROPICALLY UP AND OVER THE SHALLOW COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
FOCUS ON GEORGIA AND ALABAMA THRU 12Z SUNDAY. THE NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA W OF I-77 INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR
AT THE SFC...TO THE POINT WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WOULD BE
NEEDED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...
PREFER TO SIDESTEP THE ISSUE AND FAVOR THE DRY SOLUTIONS...WHICH
HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE MEAN QPF ON THE 03Z SREF. WILL RAMP UP THE
PRECIP CHANCES IN A DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SUNDAY MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE STILL PROMISES AN UPPER
PATTERN CHANGE WITH RIDGING IN THE EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS KIND
OF BROAD AND FLAT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
THE MODELS DROP DOWN FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LAY OUT
ACROSS THE REGION E TO W ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
NECESSITATE A CHANCE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL AT
LEAST BE FOR RAIN...AS TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE NOT
MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH TEMP ON
TUESDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
ANOTHER TRANSITORY HIGH TO THE NORTH PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER WEDGE.
THE HIGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MEAN SW FLOW SHOULD
DESTROY ANY REMAINING WEDGE-LIKE FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TIMES AT
ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS EITHER VFR...OR WITH A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR SPECIFICALLY ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE LINGERING LOW CIGS
DOMINATE FROM ERODING SN SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS THROUGH MORNING WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH END MVFR AROUND EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER
WAVE SLIDES ATOP MOIST LAYER.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF A TRANSITIONING HIGH WHEN FLOW WILL
BE VRB/NW IN THE 3-4KTS RANGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-072-501>510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ001>003.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 261510
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1010 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES FROM THE WEST.  COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH THE REMAINING COUNTIES STILL IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY HAS OVERCAST SKIES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000FT FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SMALL BREAKS
IN THE COVER ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NE GA. TEMPS WILL WARM SLOWLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS WARMING WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BY NOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE SC
UPSTATE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. STILL EXPECTING SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT NW FLOW SNOW OVER THE NC/TENN BORDER REGION WITH
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND BEST QPF AFTER 20Z OR SO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SLASHED POPS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE TN LINE AS WEAK NWFS
REGIME ESTABLISHES.  OTHERWISE...STILL FORECASTING TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN OF GA/SC/NC
TODAY WHICH AIDED BY OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN SKY COVER...WILL WORK TO
MELT SOME OF THE SNOW COVER.  AS FOR PRODUCTS...WINTER STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN CANCELLED ENTIRELY AND REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SPECIFICALLY HIGHLIGHTING SLICK ROADWAY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...SOME INTERESTING LITTLE PROBLEMS IN THE FCST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINLY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
HANDLING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. OVERALL...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL BE UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING IN
THE NRN STREAM SUPPORTING A COLD HIGH MOVING PAST TO THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF ON THE TN BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE FIRST
MINOR PROBLEM IS THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ON THE GFS ON FRIDAY. THE GFS USES THAT MOISTURE TO
DEVELOP SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
CAROLINAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THAT WOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL NAM DOES
NOT...BECAUSE OF MUCH LESS MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PREFER TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO POSITION ON SATURDAY TO OUR NE
TO SUPPORT COLD AIR DAMMING. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT. THE NEXT PROBLEM ARISES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGH SLIPPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE ISSUE
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC AND
MOVES ISENTROPICALLY UP AND OVER THE SHALLOW COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
FOCUS ON GEORGIA AND ALABAMA THRU 12Z SUNDAY. THE NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA W OF I-77 INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR
AT THE SFC...TO THE POINT WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WOULD BE
NEEDED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...
PREFER TO SIDESTEP THE ISSUE AND FAVOR THE DRY SOLUTIONS...WHICH
HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE MEAN QPF ON THE 03Z SREF. WILL RAMP UP THE
PRECIP CHANCES IN A DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SUNDAY MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE STILL PROMISES AN UPPER
PATTERN CHANGE WITH RIDGING IN THE EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS KIND
OF BROAD AND FLAT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
THE MODELS DROP DOWN FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LAY OUT
ACROSS THE REGION E TO W ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
NECESSITATE A CHANCE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL AT
LEAST BE FOR RAIN...AS TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE NOT
MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH TEMP ON
TUESDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
ANOTHER TRANSITORY HIGH TO THE NORTH PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER WEDGE.
THE HIGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MEAN SW FLOW SHOULD
DESTROY ANY REMAINING WEDGE-LIKE FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TIMES AT
ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS EITHER VFR...OR WITH A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR SPECIFICALLY ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE LINGERING LOW CIGS
DOMINATE FROM ERODING SN SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS THROUGH MORNING WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH END MVFR AROUND EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER
WAVE SLIDES ATOP MOIST LAYER.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF A TRANSITIONING HIGH WHEN FLOW WILL
BE VRB/NW IN THE 3-4KTS RANGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-072-501>510.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ001>003.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261131
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES FROM THE WEST.  COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SLASHED POPS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE TN LINE AS WEAK NWFS
REGIME ESTABLISHES.  OTHERWISE...STILL FORECASTING TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN OF GA/SC/NC
TODAY WHICH AIDED BY OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN SKY COVER...WILL WORK TO
MELT SOME OF THE SNOW COVER.  AS FOR PRODUCTS...WINTER STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN CANCELLED ENTIRELY AND REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SPECIFICALLY HIGHLIGHTING SLICK ROADWAY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
YIELD VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISB THIS MORNING AMIDST LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RA/SN IS COMING TO AN END ACROSS
THE REGION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE.
THEREFORE WILL CANCEL WARNING FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SC
UPSTATE...ALL OF NORTHEAST GA...AND THE SOUTHWEST MTNS OF WESTERN
NC.  THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
HIGHLIGHT CONTINUED HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WARNING OVER NC PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN MTNS
AS SOME LIGHT RETURNS REMAIN ON RADAR.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL
INITIALIZE AT LOW END CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS NORTHEAST GA....SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
THE NORTHEAST WHERE LIKELY POPS RESIDE ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR.  FROM
THERE...WILL TREND POPS DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH POPS LINGERING AT CHANGE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN NC.

MODELS INDICATE A LULL IN PRECIP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
POPS INTO LATE EVENING.  PROFILES AT THE TIME WILL SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MODEL QPF BEING LOW ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S/40S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE
OVERCAST SKIES.  THIS WILL AID MELTING PROCESSES OF SNOWPACK ON THE
GROUND ALREADY.  AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO SUBFREEZING LEVELS
REGIONWIDE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS TO REEMERGE ON ANY WET/REFREEZING HIGHWAYS.  ISSUANCE OF
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED LATER IN THE DAY TO
COVER SUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...SOME INTERESTING LITTLE PROBLEMS IN THE FCST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINLY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
HANDLING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. OVERALL...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL BE UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING IN
THE NRN STREAM SUPPORTING A COLD HIGH MOVING PAST TO THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF ON THE TN BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE FIRST
MINOR PROBLEM IS THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ON THE GFS ON FRIDAY. THE GFS USES THAT MOISTURE TO
DEVELOP SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
CAROLINAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THAT WOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL NAM DOES
NOT...BECAUSE OF MUCH LESS MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PREFER TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO POSITION ON SATURDAY TO OUR NE
TO SUPPORT COLD AIR DAMMING. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT. THE NEXT PROBLEM ARISES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGH SLIPPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE ISSUE
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC AND
MOVES ISENTROPICALLY UP AND OVER THE SHALLOW COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
FOCUS ON GEORGIA AND ALABAMA THRU 12Z SUNDAY. THE NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA W OF I-77 INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR
AT THE SFC...TO THE POINT WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WOULD BE
NEEDED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...
PREFER TO SIDESTEP THE ISSUE AND FAVOR THE DRY SOLUTIONS...WHICH
HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE MEAN QPF ON THE 03Z SREF. WILL RAMP UP THE
PRECIP CHANCES IN A DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SUNDAY MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE STILL PROMISES AN UPPER
PATTERN CHANGE WITH RIDGING IN THE EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS KIND
OF BROAD AND FLAT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
THE MODELS DROP DOWN FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LAY OUT
ACROSS THE REGION E TO W ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
NECESSITATE A CHANCE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL AT
LEAST BE FOR RAIN...AS TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE NOT
MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH TEMP ON
TUESDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
ANOTHER TRANSITORY HIGH TO THE NORTH PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER WEDGE.
THE HIGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MEAN SW FLOW SHOULD
DESTROY ANY REMAINING WEDGE-LIKE FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TIMES AT
ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS EITHER VFR...OR WITH A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR SPECIFICALLY ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE LINGERING LOW CIGS
DOMINATE FROM ERODING SN SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS THROUGH MORNING WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH END MVFR AROUND EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER
WAVE SLIDES ATOP MOIST LAYER.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF A TRANSITIONING HIGH WHEN FLOW WILL
BE VRB/NW IN THE 3-4KTS RANGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ017-018-026-028.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-072-501>510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ068>071-082.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ001>003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ004>010.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 261131
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES FROM THE WEST.  COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SLASHED POPS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE TN LINE AS WEAK NWFS
REGIME ESTABLISHES.  OTHERWISE...STILL FORECASTING TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN OF GA/SC/NC
TODAY WHICH AIDED BY OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN SKY COVER...WILL WORK TO
MELT SOME OF THE SNOW COVER.  AS FOR PRODUCTS...WINTER STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN CANCELLED ENTIRELY AND REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SPECIFICALLY HIGHLIGHTING SLICK ROADWAY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
YIELD VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISB THIS MORNING AMIDST LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RA/SN IS COMING TO AN END ACROSS
THE REGION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE.
THEREFORE WILL CANCEL WARNING FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SC
UPSTATE...ALL OF NORTHEAST GA...AND THE SOUTHWEST MTNS OF WESTERN
NC.  THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
HIGHLIGHT CONTINUED HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WARNING OVER NC PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN MTNS
AS SOME LIGHT RETURNS REMAIN ON RADAR.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL
INITIALIZE AT LOW END CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS NORTHEAST GA....SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
THE NORTHEAST WHERE LIKELY POPS RESIDE ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR.  FROM
THERE...WILL TREND POPS DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH POPS LINGERING AT CHANGE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN NC.

MODELS INDICATE A LULL IN PRECIP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
POPS INTO LATE EVENING.  PROFILES AT THE TIME WILL SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MODEL QPF BEING LOW ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S/40S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE
OVERCAST SKIES.  THIS WILL AID MELTING PROCESSES OF SNOWPACK ON THE
GROUND ALREADY.  AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO SUBFREEZING LEVELS
REGIONWIDE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS TO REEMERGE ON ANY WET/REFREEZING HIGHWAYS.  ISSUANCE OF
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED LATER IN THE DAY TO
COVER SUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...SOME INTERESTING LITTLE PROBLEMS IN THE FCST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINLY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
HANDLING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. OVERALL...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL BE UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING IN
THE NRN STREAM SUPPORTING A COLD HIGH MOVING PAST TO THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF ON THE TN BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE FIRST
MINOR PROBLEM IS THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ON THE GFS ON FRIDAY. THE GFS USES THAT MOISTURE TO
DEVELOP SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
CAROLINAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THAT WOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL NAM DOES
NOT...BECAUSE OF MUCH LESS MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PREFER TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO POSITION ON SATURDAY TO OUR NE
TO SUPPORT COLD AIR DAMMING. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT. THE NEXT PROBLEM ARISES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGH SLIPPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE ISSUE
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC AND
MOVES ISENTROPICALLY UP AND OVER THE SHALLOW COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
FOCUS ON GEORGIA AND ALABAMA THRU 12Z SUNDAY. THE NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA W OF I-77 INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR
AT THE SFC...TO THE POINT WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WOULD BE
NEEDED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...
PREFER TO SIDESTEP THE ISSUE AND FAVOR THE DRY SOLUTIONS...WHICH
HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE MEAN QPF ON THE 03Z SREF. WILL RAMP UP THE
PRECIP CHANCES IN A DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SUNDAY MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE STILL PROMISES AN UPPER
PATTERN CHANGE WITH RIDGING IN THE EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS KIND
OF BROAD AND FLAT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
THE MODELS DROP DOWN FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LAY OUT
ACROSS THE REGION E TO W ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
NECESSITATE A CHANCE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL AT
LEAST BE FOR RAIN...AS TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE NOT
MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH TEMP ON
TUESDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
ANOTHER TRANSITORY HIGH TO THE NORTH PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER WEDGE.
THE HIGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MEAN SW FLOW SHOULD
DESTROY ANY REMAINING WEDGE-LIKE FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TIMES AT
ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS EITHER VFR...OR WITH A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR SPECIFICALLY ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE LINGERING LOW CIGS
DOMINATE FROM ERODING SN SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS THROUGH MORNING WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH END MVFR AROUND EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER
WAVE SLIDES ATOP MOIST LAYER.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF A TRANSITIONING HIGH WHEN FLOW WILL
BE VRB/NW IN THE 3-4KTS RANGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ017-018-026-028.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-072-501>510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ068>071-082.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ001>003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ004>010.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261131
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES FROM THE WEST.  COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SLASHED POPS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE TN LINE AS WEAK NWFS
REGIME ESTABLISHES.  OTHERWISE...STILL FORECASTING TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN OF GA/SC/NC
TODAY WHICH AIDED BY OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN SKY COVER...WILL WORK TO
MELT SOME OF THE SNOW COVER.  AS FOR PRODUCTS...WINTER STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN CANCELLED ENTIRELY AND REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SPECIFICALLY HIGHLIGHTING SLICK ROADWAY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
YIELD VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISB THIS MORNING AMIDST LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RA/SN IS COMING TO AN END ACROSS
THE REGION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE.
THEREFORE WILL CANCEL WARNING FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SC
UPSTATE...ALL OF NORTHEAST GA...AND THE SOUTHWEST MTNS OF WESTERN
NC.  THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
HIGHLIGHT CONTINUED HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WARNING OVER NC PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN MTNS
AS SOME LIGHT RETURNS REMAIN ON RADAR.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL
INITIALIZE AT LOW END CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS NORTHEAST GA....SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
THE NORTHEAST WHERE LIKELY POPS RESIDE ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR.  FROM
THERE...WILL TREND POPS DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH POPS LINGERING AT CHANGE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN NC.

MODELS INDICATE A LULL IN PRECIP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
POPS INTO LATE EVENING.  PROFILES AT THE TIME WILL SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MODEL QPF BEING LOW ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S/40S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE
OVERCAST SKIES.  THIS WILL AID MELTING PROCESSES OF SNOWPACK ON THE
GROUND ALREADY.  AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO SUBFREEZING LEVELS
REGIONWIDE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS TO REEMERGE ON ANY WET/REFREEZING HIGHWAYS.  ISSUANCE OF
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED LATER IN THE DAY TO
COVER SUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...SOME INTERESTING LITTLE PROBLEMS IN THE FCST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINLY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
HANDLING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. OVERALL...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL BE UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING IN
THE NRN STREAM SUPPORTING A COLD HIGH MOVING PAST TO THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF ON THE TN BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE FIRST
MINOR PROBLEM IS THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ON THE GFS ON FRIDAY. THE GFS USES THAT MOISTURE TO
DEVELOP SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
CAROLINAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THAT WOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL NAM DOES
NOT...BECAUSE OF MUCH LESS MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PREFER TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO POSITION ON SATURDAY TO OUR NE
TO SUPPORT COLD AIR DAMMING. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT. THE NEXT PROBLEM ARISES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGH SLIPPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE ISSUE
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC AND
MOVES ISENTROPICALLY UP AND OVER THE SHALLOW COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
FOCUS ON GEORGIA AND ALABAMA THRU 12Z SUNDAY. THE NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA W OF I-77 INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR
AT THE SFC...TO THE POINT WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WOULD BE
NEEDED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...
PREFER TO SIDESTEP THE ISSUE AND FAVOR THE DRY SOLUTIONS...WHICH
HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE MEAN QPF ON THE 03Z SREF. WILL RAMP UP THE
PRECIP CHANCES IN A DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SUNDAY MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE STILL PROMISES AN UPPER
PATTERN CHANGE WITH RIDGING IN THE EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS KIND
OF BROAD AND FLAT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
THE MODELS DROP DOWN FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LAY OUT
ACROSS THE REGION E TO W ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
NECESSITATE A CHANCE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL AT
LEAST BE FOR RAIN...AS TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE NOT
MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH TEMP ON
TUESDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
ANOTHER TRANSITORY HIGH TO THE NORTH PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER WEDGE.
THE HIGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MEAN SW FLOW SHOULD
DESTROY ANY REMAINING WEDGE-LIKE FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TIMES AT
ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS EITHER VFR...OR WITH A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR SPECIFICALLY ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE LINGERING LOW CIGS
DOMINATE FROM ERODING SN SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS THROUGH MORNING WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH END MVFR AROUND EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER
WAVE SLIDES ATOP MOIST LAYER.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF A TRANSITIONING HIGH WHEN FLOW WILL
BE VRB/NW IN THE 3-4KTS RANGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ017-018-026-028.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-072-501>510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ068>071-082.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ001>003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ004>010.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 261131
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES FROM THE WEST.  COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...SLASHED POPS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE TN LINE AS WEAK NWFS
REGIME ESTABLISHES.  OTHERWISE...STILL FORECASTING TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN OF GA/SC/NC
TODAY WHICH AIDED BY OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN SKY COVER...WILL WORK TO
MELT SOME OF THE SNOW COVER.  AS FOR PRODUCTS...WINTER STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN CANCELLED ENTIRELY AND REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SPECIFICALLY HIGHLIGHTING SLICK ROADWAY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
YIELD VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISB THIS MORNING AMIDST LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RA/SN IS COMING TO AN END ACROSS
THE REGION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE.
THEREFORE WILL CANCEL WARNING FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SC
UPSTATE...ALL OF NORTHEAST GA...AND THE SOUTHWEST MTNS OF WESTERN
NC.  THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
HIGHLIGHT CONTINUED HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WARNING OVER NC PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN MTNS
AS SOME LIGHT RETURNS REMAIN ON RADAR.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL
INITIALIZE AT LOW END CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS NORTHEAST GA....SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
THE NORTHEAST WHERE LIKELY POPS RESIDE ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR.  FROM
THERE...WILL TREND POPS DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH POPS LINGERING AT CHANGE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN NC.

MODELS INDICATE A LULL IN PRECIP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
POPS INTO LATE EVENING.  PROFILES AT THE TIME WILL SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MODEL QPF BEING LOW ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S/40S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE
OVERCAST SKIES.  THIS WILL AID MELTING PROCESSES OF SNOWPACK ON THE
GROUND ALREADY.  AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO SUBFREEZING LEVELS
REGIONWIDE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS TO REEMERGE ON ANY WET/REFREEZING HIGHWAYS.  ISSUANCE OF
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED LATER IN THE DAY TO
COVER SUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...SOME INTERESTING LITTLE PROBLEMS IN THE FCST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINLY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
HANDLING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. OVERALL...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL BE UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING IN
THE NRN STREAM SUPPORTING A COLD HIGH MOVING PAST TO THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF ON THE TN BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE FIRST
MINOR PROBLEM IS THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ON THE GFS ON FRIDAY. THE GFS USES THAT MOISTURE TO
DEVELOP SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
CAROLINAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THAT WOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL NAM DOES
NOT...BECAUSE OF MUCH LESS MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PREFER TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO POSITION ON SATURDAY TO OUR NE
TO SUPPORT COLD AIR DAMMING. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT. THE NEXT PROBLEM ARISES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGH SLIPPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE ISSUE
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC AND
MOVES ISENTROPICALLY UP AND OVER THE SHALLOW COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
FOCUS ON GEORGIA AND ALABAMA THRU 12Z SUNDAY. THE NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA W OF I-77 INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR
AT THE SFC...TO THE POINT WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WOULD BE
NEEDED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...
PREFER TO SIDESTEP THE ISSUE AND FAVOR THE DRY SOLUTIONS...WHICH
HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE MEAN QPF ON THE 03Z SREF. WILL RAMP UP THE
PRECIP CHANCES IN A DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SUNDAY MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE STILL PROMISES AN UPPER
PATTERN CHANGE WITH RIDGING IN THE EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS KIND
OF BROAD AND FLAT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
THE MODELS DROP DOWN FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LAY OUT
ACROSS THE REGION E TO W ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
NECESSITATE A CHANCE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL AT
LEAST BE FOR RAIN...AS TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE NOT
MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH TEMP ON
TUESDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
ANOTHER TRANSITORY HIGH TO THE NORTH PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER WEDGE.
THE HIGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MEAN SW FLOW SHOULD
DESTROY ANY REMAINING WEDGE-LIKE FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TIMES AT
ALL SITES.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS EITHER VFR...OR WITH A SHORT PERIOD
OF MVFR SPECIFICALLY ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE LINGERING LOW CIGS
DOMINATE FROM ERODING SN SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS THROUGH MORNING WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH END MVFR AROUND EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER
WAVE SLIDES ATOP MOIST LAYER.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF A TRANSITIONING HIGH WHEN FLOW WILL
BE VRB/NW IN THE 3-4KTS RANGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ017-018-026-028.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-072-501>510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ068>071-082.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ001>003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ004>010.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260832
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES FROM THE WEST.  COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
YIELD VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISB THIS MORNING AMIDST LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RA/SN IS COMING TO AN END ACROSS
THE REGION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE.
THEREFORE WILL CANCEL WARNING FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SC
UPSTATE...ALL OF NORTHEAST GA...AND THE SOUTHWEST MTNS OF WESTERN
NC.  THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
HIGHLIGHT CONTINUED HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WARNING OVER NC PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN MTNS
AS SOME LIGHT RETURNS REMAIN ON RADAR.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL
INITIALIZE AT LOW END CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS NORTHEAST GA....SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
THE NORTHEAST WHERE LIKELY POPS RESIDE ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR.  FROM
THERE...WILL TREND POPS DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH POPS LINGERING AT CHANGE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN NC.

MODELS INDICATE A LULL IN PRECIP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
POPS INTO LATE EVENING.  PROFILES AT THE TIME WILL SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MODEL QPF BEING LOW ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S/40S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE
OVERCAST SKIES.  THIS WILL AID MELTING PROCESSES OF SNOWPACK ON THE
GROUND ALREADY.  AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO SUBFREEZING LEVELS
REGIONWIDE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS TO REEMERGE ON ANY WET/REFREEZING HIGHWAYS.  ISSUANCE OF
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED LATER IN THE DAY TO
COVER SUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...SOME INTERESTING LITTLE PROBLEMS IN THE FCST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINLY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
HANDLING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. OVERALL...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL BE UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING IN
THE NRN STREAM SUPPORTING A COLD HIGH MOVING PAST TO THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF ON THE TN BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE FIRST
MINOR PROBLEM IS THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ON THE GFS ON FRIDAY. THE GFS USES THAT MOISTURE TO
DEVELOP SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
CAROLINAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THAT WOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL NAM DOES
NOT...BECAUSE OF MUCH LESS MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PREFER TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO POSITION ON SATURDAY TO OUR NE
TO SUPPORT COLD AIR DAMMING. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT. THE NEXT PROBLEM ARISES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGH SLIPPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE ISSUE
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC AND
MOVES ISENTROPICALLY UP AND OVER THE SHALLOW COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
FOCUS ON GEORGIA AND ALABAMA THRU 12Z SUNDAY. THE NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA W OF I-77 INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR
AT THE SFC...TO THE POINT WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WOULD BE
NEEDED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...
PREFER TO SIDESTEP THE ISSUE AND FAVOR THE DRY SOLUTIONS...WHICH
HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE MEAN QPF ON THE 03Z SREF. WILL RAMP UP THE
PRECIP CHANCES IN A DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SUNDAY MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE STILL PROMISES AN UPPER
PATTERN CHANGE WITH RIDGING IN THE EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS KIND
OF BROAD AND FLAT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
THE MODELS DROP DOWN FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LAY OUT
ACROSS THE REGION E TO W ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
NECESSITATE A CHANCE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL AT
LEAST BE FOR RAIN...AS TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE NOT
MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH TEMP ON
TUESDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
ANOTHER TRANSITORY HIGH TO THE NORTH PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER WEDGE.
THE HIGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MEAN SW FLOW SHOULD
DESTROY ANY REMAINING WEDGE-LIKE FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES AS WINTRY PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS IFR/LIFR WITH SOME FORM OF
WINTRY PRECIP.  LATEST OBS AROUND THE REGION INDICATE THAT RA/SN
LINE IS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 85 WITH MOST SITES
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE CORRIDOR SEEING MOSTLY A RASN MIX WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL PL MIXING IN.  THUS...FOR ALL I85 CORRIDOR LOCAL
SITES PREVAILED RASNPL TO COVER ALL BASES.  THERMAL PROFILES FURTHER
NORTH SUPPORT ALL SNOW...THUS SUCH IS FEATURED AT KAVL/KHKY THROUGH
MORNING.  ALL WX IS REMOVED FROM WEST/EAST STARTING AROUND THE 9-10Z
TIMEFRAME WITH ALL TAFS BEING DRY BY NLT 12-13Z.  INDICATED SUCH
REMOVAL VIA 2HR TEMPOS AT CLT/GSP/GMU DUE TO TAPERING OF PRECIP IN
THAT TIMEFRAME PER LATEST HIGH RES GUID.  OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
PASSES ATOP A VERY MOIST PBL.  HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE PERHAPS A QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF FLOW.  DID NOT INCLUDE THE SOUTHERLY VEERED
FLOW IN ALL TAFS AS FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIG HGT RESTRICTIONS THRU FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-501>506-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ008-
     009.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>007-010-012>014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260832
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES FROM THE WEST.  COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
YIELD VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISB THIS MORNING AMIDST LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RA/SN IS COMING TO AN END ACROSS
THE REGION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE.
THEREFORE WILL CANCEL WARNING FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SC
UPSTATE...ALL OF NORTHEAST GA...AND THE SOUTHWEST MTNS OF WESTERN
NC.  THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
HIGHLIGHT CONTINUED HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WARNING OVER NC PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN MTNS
AS SOME LIGHT RETURNS REMAIN ON RADAR.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL
INITIALIZE AT LOW END CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS NORTHEAST GA....SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
THE NORTHEAST WHERE LIKELY POPS RESIDE ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR.  FROM
THERE...WILL TREND POPS DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH POPS LINGERING AT CHANGE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN NC.

MODELS INDICATE A LULL IN PRECIP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
POPS INTO LATE EVENING.  PROFILES AT THE TIME WILL SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MODEL QPF BEING LOW ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S/40S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE
OVERCAST SKIES.  THIS WILL AID MELTING PROCESSES OF SNOWPACK ON THE
GROUND ALREADY.  AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO SUBFREEZING LEVELS
REGIONWIDE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS TO REEMERGE ON ANY WET/REFREEZING HIGHWAYS.  ISSUANCE OF
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED LATER IN THE DAY TO
COVER SUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...SOME INTERESTING LITTLE PROBLEMS IN THE FCST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINLY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
HANDLING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. OVERALL...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL BE UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING IN
THE NRN STREAM SUPPORTING A COLD HIGH MOVING PAST TO THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF ON THE TN BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE FIRST
MINOR PROBLEM IS THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ON THE GFS ON FRIDAY. THE GFS USES THAT MOISTURE TO
DEVELOP SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
CAROLINAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THAT WOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL NAM DOES
NOT...BECAUSE OF MUCH LESS MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PREFER TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO POSITION ON SATURDAY TO OUR NE
TO SUPPORT COLD AIR DAMMING. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT. THE NEXT PROBLEM ARISES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGH SLIPPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE ISSUE
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC AND
MOVES ISENTROPICALLY UP AND OVER THE SHALLOW COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
FOCUS ON GEORGIA AND ALABAMA THRU 12Z SUNDAY. THE NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA W OF I-77 INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR
AT THE SFC...TO THE POINT WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WOULD BE
NEEDED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...
PREFER TO SIDESTEP THE ISSUE AND FAVOR THE DRY SOLUTIONS...WHICH
HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE MEAN QPF ON THE 03Z SREF. WILL RAMP UP THE
PRECIP CHANCES IN A DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SUNDAY MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE STILL PROMISES AN UPPER
PATTERN CHANGE WITH RIDGING IN THE EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS KIND
OF BROAD AND FLAT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
THE MODELS DROP DOWN FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LAY OUT
ACROSS THE REGION E TO W ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
NECESSITATE A CHANCE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL AT
LEAST BE FOR RAIN...AS TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE NOT
MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH TEMP ON
TUESDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
ANOTHER TRANSITORY HIGH TO THE NORTH PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER WEDGE.
THE HIGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MEAN SW FLOW SHOULD
DESTROY ANY REMAINING WEDGE-LIKE FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES AS WINTRY PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS IFR/LIFR WITH SOME FORM OF
WINTRY PRECIP.  LATEST OBS AROUND THE REGION INDICATE THAT RA/SN
LINE IS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 85 WITH MOST SITES
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE CORRIDOR SEEING MOSTLY A RASN MIX WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL PL MIXING IN.  THUS...FOR ALL I85 CORRIDOR LOCAL
SITES PREVAILED RASNPL TO COVER ALL BASES.  THERMAL PROFILES FURTHER
NORTH SUPPORT ALL SNOW...THUS SUCH IS FEATURED AT KAVL/KHKY THROUGH
MORNING.  ALL WX IS REMOVED FROM WEST/EAST STARTING AROUND THE 9-10Z
TIMEFRAME WITH ALL TAFS BEING DRY BY NLT 12-13Z.  INDICATED SUCH
REMOVAL VIA 2HR TEMPOS AT CLT/GSP/GMU DUE TO TAPERING OF PRECIP IN
THAT TIMEFRAME PER LATEST HIGH RES GUID.  OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
PASSES ATOP A VERY MOIST PBL.  HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE PERHAPS A QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF FLOW.  DID NOT INCLUDE THE SOUTHERLY VEERED
FLOW IN ALL TAFS AS FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIG HGT RESTRICTIONS THRU FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-501>506-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ008-
     009.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>007-010-012>014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 260832
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES FROM THE WEST.  COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
YIELD VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISB THIS MORNING AMIDST LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RA/SN IS COMING TO AN END ACROSS
THE REGION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE.
THEREFORE WILL CANCEL WARNING FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SC
UPSTATE...ALL OF NORTHEAST GA...AND THE SOUTHWEST MTNS OF WESTERN
NC.  THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
HIGHLIGHT CONTINUED HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WARNING OVER NC PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN MTNS
AS SOME LIGHT RETURNS REMAIN ON RADAR.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL
INITIALIZE AT LOW END CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS NORTHEAST GA....SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
THE NORTHEAST WHERE LIKELY POPS RESIDE ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR.  FROM
THERE...WILL TREND POPS DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH POPS LINGERING AT CHANGE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN NC.

MODELS INDICATE A LULL IN PRECIP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
POPS INTO LATE EVENING.  PROFILES AT THE TIME WILL SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MODEL QPF BEING LOW ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S/40S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE
OVERCAST SKIES.  THIS WILL AID MELTING PROCESSES OF SNOWPACK ON THE
GROUND ALREADY.  AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO SUBFREEZING LEVELS
REGIONWIDE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS TO REEMERGE ON ANY WET/REFREEZING HIGHWAYS.  ISSUANCE OF
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED LATER IN THE DAY TO
COVER SUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...SOME INTERESTING LITTLE PROBLEMS IN THE FCST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINLY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
HANDLING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. OVERALL...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL BE UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING IN
THE NRN STREAM SUPPORTING A COLD HIGH MOVING PAST TO THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF ON THE TN BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE FIRST
MINOR PROBLEM IS THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ON THE GFS ON FRIDAY. THE GFS USES THAT MOISTURE TO
DEVELOP SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
CAROLINAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THAT WOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL NAM DOES
NOT...BECAUSE OF MUCH LESS MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PREFER TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO POSITION ON SATURDAY TO OUR NE
TO SUPPORT COLD AIR DAMMING. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT. THE NEXT PROBLEM ARISES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGH SLIPPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE ISSUE
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC AND
MOVES ISENTROPICALLY UP AND OVER THE SHALLOW COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
FOCUS ON GEORGIA AND ALABAMA THRU 12Z SUNDAY. THE NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA W OF I-77 INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR
AT THE SFC...TO THE POINT WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WOULD BE
NEEDED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...
PREFER TO SIDESTEP THE ISSUE AND FAVOR THE DRY SOLUTIONS...WHICH
HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE MEAN QPF ON THE 03Z SREF. WILL RAMP UP THE
PRECIP CHANCES IN A DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SUNDAY MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE STILL PROMISES AN UPPER
PATTERN CHANGE WITH RIDGING IN THE EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS KIND
OF BROAD AND FLAT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
THE MODELS DROP DOWN FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LAY OUT
ACROSS THE REGION E TO W ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
NECESSITATE A CHANCE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL AT
LEAST BE FOR RAIN...AS TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE NOT
MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH TEMP ON
TUESDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
ANOTHER TRANSITORY HIGH TO THE NORTH PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER WEDGE.
THE HIGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MEAN SW FLOW SHOULD
DESTROY ANY REMAINING WEDGE-LIKE FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES AS WINTRY PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS IFR/LIFR WITH SOME FORM OF
WINTRY PRECIP.  LATEST OBS AROUND THE REGION INDICATE THAT RA/SN
LINE IS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 85 WITH MOST SITES
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE CORRIDOR SEEING MOSTLY A RASN MIX WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL PL MIXING IN.  THUS...FOR ALL I85 CORRIDOR LOCAL
SITES PREVAILED RASNPL TO COVER ALL BASES.  THERMAL PROFILES FURTHER
NORTH SUPPORT ALL SNOW...THUS SUCH IS FEATURED AT KAVL/KHKY THROUGH
MORNING.  ALL WX IS REMOVED FROM WEST/EAST STARTING AROUND THE 9-10Z
TIMEFRAME WITH ALL TAFS BEING DRY BY NLT 12-13Z.  INDICATED SUCH
REMOVAL VIA 2HR TEMPOS AT CLT/GSP/GMU DUE TO TAPERING OF PRECIP IN
THAT TIMEFRAME PER LATEST HIGH RES GUID.  OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
PASSES ATOP A VERY MOIST PBL.  HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE PERHAPS A QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF FLOW.  DID NOT INCLUDE THE SOUTHERLY VEERED
FLOW IN ALL TAFS AS FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIG HGT RESTRICTIONS THRU FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-501>506-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ008-
     009.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>007-010-012>014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 260557
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1257 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES FROM THE WEST.  COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST THURSDAY...PER LATEST WV IMAGERY...DRY SLOT
CONTINUES TO SLIDE IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY...LEADING TO DECREASING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP.
LIKEWISE...DRY SLOTTING LIKELY ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO A CHANGE OVER
FROM SN TO RA/FZRA AT SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO DEPTH OF MOIST LAYER NOT
BEING DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION.  MOST SITES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 85 ARE REPORTING MOSTLY RA WITH ANY OCCASIONAL MIX OF
SN.  CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE CORRIDOR LIES THE RA/SN LINE WHERE
CONSTANT PHASE CHANGES CONTINUE WITH SOME OCCASIONAL PL.  FURTHER
NORTH INTO NC...ALL SNOW PREVAILS.  TWEAKED TEMPS/DEWS/VISB IN THE
EXTREME NEAR TERM AN LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 230 PM...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE STILL SOLIDLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL SORTS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. NO NEED TO GO
INTO DETAILS ON THAT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT BANDING WILL DEVELOP AND ALSO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL SET UP. STILL EXPECT THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SNOW PROFILES TO PREDOMINATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF
PRECIP MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AS RAIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IS NOW TO SHOW THE MAXIMUM FROM THE EASTERN
UPSTATE...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WHERE 8-10
INCHES IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF
INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MESO MODELS ARE HITTING THAT AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THE FFC MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSE
BELOW 700 MB SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH ELBERT COUNTY
GA...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC. THUS...SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH. OF COURSE THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
SNOW/RAIN LINE ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

THE SNOW WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THU. THU SHOULD BE DRY OTHER THAN
FOR SOME SCT SW- OVER THE ESCARPMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. USED
PRIMARILY A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR MOST FIELDS TONIGHT TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING. ALSO SHADED MAX TEMPS ON THU
TOWARD THE COOLEST RAW GFS NUMBERS IN DEFERENCE TO SNOW...AND THAT
MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODEST CAA ACROSS THE MTNS WITH H85 WINDS AROUND 15KTS. WEAK FLOW
MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHSN ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN
THE 20S AND HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW
40S EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. H85 TEMPS MAY COOL TO -10C ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NC ZONES...WITH MID
TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. COLD THICKNESSES AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS
TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED PER
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A
GRADUALLY DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROF AND BUILDING EASTERN RIDGE.
THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN BROAD DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SFC...COOL HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT TO SAG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. POPS WERE
CUT BACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AND SUNDAY/S POPS MAY STILL BE
OVERDONE...AS MODELS TREND LATER WITH THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA AND STALLS EAST-WEST ALONG THE GULF
STATES...ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE INDICATED IN THE MODELS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY...USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...POPS ARE HIGH-END
CHC TO LIKELY EVERY PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. GRANTED...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LULLS IN PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS TOO LOW TO GET INTO THE GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...THICKNESSES LOOK TO WARM TO
LIMIT WINTER PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS. IF SOME PRECIP IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE ANAFRONT WITHIN THE LINGERING DRIER HIGH PRES...THERE
MAY BE SOME WINTRY MIX...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OR NC FOOTHILLS.
OTHERWISE...I HAVE PRECIP ADVERTISED AS RAIN THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR MON-TUE...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES AS WINTRY PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS IFR/LIFR WITH SOME FORM OF
WINTRY PRECIP.  LATEST OBS AROUND THE REGION INDICATE THAT RA/SN
LINE IS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 85 WITH MOST SITES
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE CORRIDOR SEEING MOSTLY A RASN MIX WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL PL MIXING IN.  THUS...FOR ALL I85 CORRIDOR LOCAL
SITES PREVAILED RASNPL TO COVER ALL BASES.  THERMAL PROFILES FURTHER
NORTH SUPPORT ALL SNOW...THUS SUCH IS FEATURED AT KAVL/KHKY THROUGH
MORNING.  ALL WX IS REMOVED FROM WEST/EAST STARTING AROUND THE 9-10Z
TIMEFRAME WITH ALL TAFS BEING DRY BY NLT 12-13Z.  INDICATED SUCH
REMOVAL VIA 2HR TEMPOS AT CLT/GSP/GMU DUE TO TAPERING OF PRECIP IN
THAT TIMEFRAME PER LATEST HIGH RES GUID.  OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
PASSES ATOP A VERY MOIST PBL.  HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE PERHAPS A QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF FLOW.  DID NOT INCLUDE THE SOUTHERLY VEERED
FLOW IN ALL TAFS AS FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIG HGT RESTRICTIONS THRU FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260557
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1257 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES FROM THE WEST.  COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST THURSDAY...PER LATEST WV IMAGERY...DRY SLOT
CONTINUES TO SLIDE IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY...LEADING TO DECREASING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP.
LIKEWISE...DRY SLOTTING LIKELY ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO A CHANGE OVER
FROM SN TO RA/FZRA AT SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO DEPTH OF MOIST LAYER NOT
BEING DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION.  MOST SITES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 85 ARE REPORTING MOSTLY RA WITH ANY OCCASIONAL MIX OF
SN.  CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE CORRIDOR LIES THE RA/SN LINE WHERE
CONSTANT PHASE CHANGES CONTINUE WITH SOME OCCASIONAL PL.  FURTHER
NORTH INTO NC...ALL SNOW PREVAILS.  TWEAKED TEMPS/DEWS/VISB IN THE
EXTREME NEAR TERM AN LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 230 PM...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE STILL SOLIDLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL SORTS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. NO NEED TO GO
INTO DETAILS ON THAT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT BANDING WILL DEVELOP AND ALSO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL SET UP. STILL EXPECT THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SNOW PROFILES TO PREDOMINATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF
PRECIP MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AS RAIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IS NOW TO SHOW THE MAXIMUM FROM THE EASTERN
UPSTATE...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WHERE 8-10
INCHES IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF
INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MESO MODELS ARE HITTING THAT AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THE FFC MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSE
BELOW 700 MB SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH ELBERT COUNTY
GA...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC. THUS...SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH. OF COURSE THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
SNOW/RAIN LINE ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

THE SNOW WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THU. THU SHOULD BE DRY OTHER THAN
FOR SOME SCT SW- OVER THE ESCARPMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. USED
PRIMARILY A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR MOST FIELDS TONIGHT TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING. ALSO SHADED MAX TEMPS ON THU
TOWARD THE COOLEST RAW GFS NUMBERS IN DEFERENCE TO SNOW...AND THAT
MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODEST CAA ACROSS THE MTNS WITH H85 WINDS AROUND 15KTS. WEAK FLOW
MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHSN ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN
THE 20S AND HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW
40S EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. H85 TEMPS MAY COOL TO -10C ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NC ZONES...WITH MID
TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. COLD THICKNESSES AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS
TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED PER
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A
GRADUALLY DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROF AND BUILDING EASTERN RIDGE.
THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN BROAD DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SFC...COOL HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT TO SAG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. POPS WERE
CUT BACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AND SUNDAY/S POPS MAY STILL BE
OVERDONE...AS MODELS TREND LATER WITH THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA AND STALLS EAST-WEST ALONG THE GULF
STATES...ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE INDICATED IN THE MODELS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY...USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...POPS ARE HIGH-END
CHC TO LIKELY EVERY PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. GRANTED...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LULLS IN PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS TOO LOW TO GET INTO THE GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...THICKNESSES LOOK TO WARM TO
LIMIT WINTER PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS. IF SOME PRECIP IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE ANAFRONT WITHIN THE LINGERING DRIER HIGH PRES...THERE
MAY BE SOME WINTRY MIX...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OR NC FOOTHILLS.
OTHERWISE...I HAVE PRECIP ADVERTISED AS RAIN THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR MON-TUE...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES AS WINTRY PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS IFR/LIFR WITH SOME FORM OF
WINTRY PRECIP.  LATEST OBS AROUND THE REGION INDICATE THAT RA/SN
LINE IS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 85 WITH MOST SITES
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE CORRIDOR SEEING MOSTLY A RASN MIX WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL PL MIXING IN.  THUS...FOR ALL I85 CORRIDOR LOCAL
SITES PREVAILED RASNPL TO COVER ALL BASES.  THERMAL PROFILES FURTHER
NORTH SUPPORT ALL SNOW...THUS SUCH IS FEATURED AT KAVL/KHKY THROUGH
MORNING.  ALL WX IS REMOVED FROM WEST/EAST STARTING AROUND THE 9-10Z
TIMEFRAME WITH ALL TAFS BEING DRY BY NLT 12-13Z.  INDICATED SUCH
REMOVAL VIA 2HR TEMPOS AT CLT/GSP/GMU DUE TO TAPERING OF PRECIP IN
THAT TIMEFRAME PER LATEST HIGH RES GUID.  OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
PASSES ATOP A VERY MOIST PBL.  HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE PERHAPS A QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF FLOW.  DID NOT INCLUDE THE SOUTHERLY VEERED
FLOW IN ALL TAFS AS FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIG HGT RESTRICTIONS THRU FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 260557
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1257 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES FROM THE WEST.  COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST THURSDAY...PER LATEST WV IMAGERY...DRY SLOT
CONTINUES TO SLIDE IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY...LEADING TO DECREASING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP.
LIKEWISE...DRY SLOTTING LIKELY ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO A CHANGE OVER
FROM SN TO RA/FZRA AT SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO DEPTH OF MOIST LAYER NOT
BEING DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION.  MOST SITES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 85 ARE REPORTING MOSTLY RA WITH ANY OCCASIONAL MIX OF
SN.  CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE CORRIDOR LIES THE RA/SN LINE WHERE
CONSTANT PHASE CHANGES CONTINUE WITH SOME OCCASIONAL PL.  FURTHER
NORTH INTO NC...ALL SNOW PREVAILS.  TWEAKED TEMPS/DEWS/VISB IN THE
EXTREME NEAR TERM AN LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 230 PM...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE STILL SOLIDLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL SORTS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. NO NEED TO GO
INTO DETAILS ON THAT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT BANDING WILL DEVELOP AND ALSO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL SET UP. STILL EXPECT THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SNOW PROFILES TO PREDOMINATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF
PRECIP MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AS RAIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IS NOW TO SHOW THE MAXIMUM FROM THE EASTERN
UPSTATE...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WHERE 8-10
INCHES IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF
INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MESO MODELS ARE HITTING THAT AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THE FFC MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSE
BELOW 700 MB SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH ELBERT COUNTY
GA...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC. THUS...SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH. OF COURSE THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
SNOW/RAIN LINE ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

THE SNOW WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THU. THU SHOULD BE DRY OTHER THAN
FOR SOME SCT SW- OVER THE ESCARPMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. USED
PRIMARILY A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR MOST FIELDS TONIGHT TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING. ALSO SHADED MAX TEMPS ON THU
TOWARD THE COOLEST RAW GFS NUMBERS IN DEFERENCE TO SNOW...AND THAT
MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODEST CAA ACROSS THE MTNS WITH H85 WINDS AROUND 15KTS. WEAK FLOW
MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHSN ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN
THE 20S AND HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW
40S EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. H85 TEMPS MAY COOL TO -10C ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NC ZONES...WITH MID
TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. COLD THICKNESSES AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS
TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED PER
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A
GRADUALLY DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROF AND BUILDING EASTERN RIDGE.
THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN BROAD DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SFC...COOL HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT TO SAG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. POPS WERE
CUT BACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AND SUNDAY/S POPS MAY STILL BE
OVERDONE...AS MODELS TREND LATER WITH THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA AND STALLS EAST-WEST ALONG THE GULF
STATES...ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE INDICATED IN THE MODELS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY...USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...POPS ARE HIGH-END
CHC TO LIKELY EVERY PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. GRANTED...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LULLS IN PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS TOO LOW TO GET INTO THE GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...THICKNESSES LOOK TO WARM TO
LIMIT WINTER PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS. IF SOME PRECIP IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE ANAFRONT WITHIN THE LINGERING DRIER HIGH PRES...THERE
MAY BE SOME WINTRY MIX...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OR NC FOOTHILLS.
OTHERWISE...I HAVE PRECIP ADVERTISED AS RAIN THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR MON-TUE...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES AS WINTRY PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS IFR/LIFR WITH SOME FORM OF
WINTRY PRECIP.  LATEST OBS AROUND THE REGION INDICATE THAT RA/SN
LINE IS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 85 WITH MOST SITES
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE CORRIDOR SEEING MOSTLY A RASN MIX WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL PL MIXING IN.  THUS...FOR ALL I85 CORRIDOR LOCAL
SITES PREVAILED RASNPL TO COVER ALL BASES.  THERMAL PROFILES FURTHER
NORTH SUPPORT ALL SNOW...THUS SUCH IS FEATURED AT KAVL/KHKY THROUGH
MORNING.  ALL WX IS REMOVED FROM WEST/EAST STARTING AROUND THE 9-10Z
TIMEFRAME WITH ALL TAFS BEING DRY BY NLT 12-13Z.  INDICATED SUCH
REMOVAL VIA 2HR TEMPOS AT CLT/GSP/GMU DUE TO TAPERING OF PRECIP IN
THAT TIMEFRAME PER LATEST HIGH RES GUID.  OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
PASSES ATOP A VERY MOIST PBL.  HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE PERHAPS A QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF FLOW.  DID NOT INCLUDE THE SOUTHERLY VEERED
FLOW IN ALL TAFS AS FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIG HGT RESTRICTIONS THRU FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260557
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1257 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES FROM THE WEST.  COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST THURSDAY...PER LATEST WV IMAGERY...DRY SLOT
CONTINUES TO SLIDE IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY...LEADING TO DECREASING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP.
LIKEWISE...DRY SLOTTING LIKELY ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO A CHANGE OVER
FROM SN TO RA/FZRA AT SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO DEPTH OF MOIST LAYER NOT
BEING DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION.  MOST SITES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 85 ARE REPORTING MOSTLY RA WITH ANY OCCASIONAL MIX OF
SN.  CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE CORRIDOR LIES THE RA/SN LINE WHERE
CONSTANT PHASE CHANGES CONTINUE WITH SOME OCCASIONAL PL.  FURTHER
NORTH INTO NC...ALL SNOW PREVAILS.  TWEAKED TEMPS/DEWS/VISB IN THE
EXTREME NEAR TERM AN LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 230 PM...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE STILL SOLIDLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL SORTS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. NO NEED TO GO
INTO DETAILS ON THAT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT BANDING WILL DEVELOP AND ALSO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL SET UP. STILL EXPECT THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SNOW PROFILES TO PREDOMINATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF
PRECIP MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AS RAIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IS NOW TO SHOW THE MAXIMUM FROM THE EASTERN
UPSTATE...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WHERE 8-10
INCHES IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF
INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MESO MODELS ARE HITTING THAT AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THE FFC MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSE
BELOW 700 MB SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH ELBERT COUNTY
GA...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC. THUS...SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH. OF COURSE THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
SNOW/RAIN LINE ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

THE SNOW WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THU. THU SHOULD BE DRY OTHER THAN
FOR SOME SCT SW- OVER THE ESCARPMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. USED
PRIMARILY A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR MOST FIELDS TONIGHT TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING. ALSO SHADED MAX TEMPS ON THU
TOWARD THE COOLEST RAW GFS NUMBERS IN DEFERENCE TO SNOW...AND THAT
MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODEST CAA ACROSS THE MTNS WITH H85 WINDS AROUND 15KTS. WEAK FLOW
MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHSN ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN
THE 20S AND HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW
40S EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. H85 TEMPS MAY COOL TO -10C ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NC ZONES...WITH MID
TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. COLD THICKNESSES AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS
TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED PER
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A
GRADUALLY DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROF AND BUILDING EASTERN RIDGE.
THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN BROAD DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SFC...COOL HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT TO SAG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. POPS WERE
CUT BACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AND SUNDAY/S POPS MAY STILL BE
OVERDONE...AS MODELS TREND LATER WITH THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA AND STALLS EAST-WEST ALONG THE GULF
STATES...ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE INDICATED IN THE MODELS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY...USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...POPS ARE HIGH-END
CHC TO LIKELY EVERY PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. GRANTED...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LULLS IN PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS TOO LOW TO GET INTO THE GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...THICKNESSES LOOK TO WARM TO
LIMIT WINTER PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS. IF SOME PRECIP IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE ANAFRONT WITHIN THE LINGERING DRIER HIGH PRES...THERE
MAY BE SOME WINTRY MIX...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OR NC FOOTHILLS.
OTHERWISE...I HAVE PRECIP ADVERTISED AS RAIN THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR MON-TUE...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES AS WINTRY PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS IFR/LIFR WITH SOME FORM OF
WINTRY PRECIP.  LATEST OBS AROUND THE REGION INDICATE THAT RA/SN
LINE IS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 85 WITH MOST SITES
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE CORRIDOR SEEING MOSTLY A RASN MIX WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL PL MIXING IN.  THUS...FOR ALL I85 CORRIDOR LOCAL
SITES PREVAILED RASNPL TO COVER ALL BASES.  THERMAL PROFILES FURTHER
NORTH SUPPORT ALL SNOW...THUS SUCH IS FEATURED AT KAVL/KHKY THROUGH
MORNING.  ALL WX IS REMOVED FROM WEST/EAST STARTING AROUND THE 9-10Z
TIMEFRAME WITH ALL TAFS BEING DRY BY NLT 12-13Z.  INDICATED SUCH
REMOVAL VIA 2HR TEMPOS AT CLT/GSP/GMU DUE TO TAPERING OF PRECIP IN
THAT TIMEFRAME PER LATEST HIGH RES GUID.  OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
PASSES ATOP A VERY MOIST PBL.  HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE PERHAPS A QUICK TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF FLOW.  DID NOT INCLUDE THE SOUTHERLY VEERED
FLOW IN ALL TAFS AS FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIG HGT RESTRICTIONS THRU FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 260313
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1013 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA INTO THURSDAY. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...PRECIP RATES HAVE SLOWED A BIT BUT MOST REPORTING
SITES ACRS THE CWFA STILL INDICATE A FEW HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR OF
LIQUID ACCUMULATION. PTYPE IS ALMOST ENTIRELY SNOW OVER WNC BUT A
NUMBER OF SC SITES ARE REPORTING RAIN AND OCCASIONALLY SLEET.
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME PATCHY AND LIGHT. HOWEVER SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPTICK IN PRECIP RATES OVER
ESSENTIALLY THE ERN UPSTATE AND NC PIEDMONT BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENHANCED UPPER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOC WITH A JET
STREAK. QPF FROM THESE MODELS ALSO REFLECTS BANDING TO SOME DEGREE.
PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RELATIVELY LOW SNOW RATIOS AT BEST DUE
THEIR WARM AND MOIST NATURE...WITH A VARYING WARM NOSE THAT WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SOME PTYPE VARIATION OVER THE SRN PART OF THE AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THE FCST IS TO ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AROUND DAYBREAK FOR AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE BELOW
FREEZING...MAINLY THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT N OF CHARLOTTE. LOW
LEVELS ARE SATURATED ON PROG PROFILES AT THIS TIME BUT AT TEMPS TOO
WARM FOR NUCLEATION. MODEL QPF IS LOW AT THAT TIME AND ONLY MINOR
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE WINTER STORM WARNING TEXT HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

AT 230 PM...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE STILL SOLIDLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL SORTS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. NO NEED TO GO
INTO DETAILS ON THAT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT BANDING WILL DEVELOP AND ALSO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL SET UP. STILL EXPECT THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BECOME
SUFFICENT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SNOW PROFILES TO PREDOMINATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF
PRECIP MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AS RAIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IS NOW TO SHOW THE MAXIMUM FROM THE EASTERN
UPSTATE...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WHERE 8-10
INCHES IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF
INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MESO MODELS ARE HITTING THAT AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THE FFC MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSE
BELOW 700 MB SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH ELBERT COUNTY
GA...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC. THUS...SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH. OF COURSE THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
SNOW/RAIN LINE ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

THE SNOW WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THU. THU SHOLD BE DRY OTHER THAN
FOR SOME SCT SW- OVER THE ESCARPMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. USED
PRIMARLILY A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR MOST FIELDS TONIGHT TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING. ALSO SHADED MAX TEMPS ON THU
TOWEARD THE COOLEST RAW GFS NUMBERS IN DEFERENCE TO SNOW...AND THAT
MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODEST CAA ACROSS THE MTNS WITH H85 WINDS AROUND 15KTS. WEAK FLOW
MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHSN ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN
THE 20S AND HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW
40S EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. H85 TEMPS MAY COOL TO -10C ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NC ZONES...WITH MID
TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. COLD THICKNESSES AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS
TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED PER
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A
GRADUALLY DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROF AND BUILDING EASTERN RIDGE.
THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN BROAD DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SFC...COOL HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT TO SAG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. POPS WERE
CUT BACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AND SUNDAY/S POPS MAY STILL BE
OVERDONE...AS MODELS TREND LATER WITH THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA AND STALLS EAST-WEST ALONG THE GULF
STATES...ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE INDICATED IN THE MODELS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY...USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...POPS ARE HIGH-END
CHC TO LIKELY EVERY PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. GRANTED...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LULLS IN PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS TOO LOW TO GET INTO THE GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...THICKNESSES LOOK TO WARM TO
LIMIT WINTER PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS. IF SOME PRECIP IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE ANAFRONT WITHIN THE LINGERING DRIER HIGH PRES...THERE
MAY BE SOME WINTRY MIX...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OR NC FOOTHILLS.
OTHERWISE...I HAVE PRECIP ADVERTISED AS RAIN THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR MON-TUE...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WINTRY PRECIP IS A PRIMARY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES FROM THE GULF TO THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST. PROFILES WILL COOL TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW IF NOT
ALREADY. PEAK PRECIP RATES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 03-06Z TIMEFRAME WITH
LOCAL BURSTS IN SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLE DUE TO SLANTWISE CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. VIRTUALLY ALL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT...BUT SAVED THE LIFR MENTION WHERE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES WERE EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING VERY LATE TONIGHT...AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END A COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK THU. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF
A SCOURING MECHANISM DURING THE DAY HOWEVER AND ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE
LINGERS TO KEEP CIGS MVFR IF NOT LOWER. WINDS CONTINUE NELY THRU THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KAVL...BACKING TO NW THERE EARLY THU.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIG HGT RESTRICTIONS THRU FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260117
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
817 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA INTO THURSDAY. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING NWD INTO THE CWFA FROM
THE SOUTH. TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED IN A BIT LESS
CUT AND DRY FASHION THAN ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE
WARM LAYER SEEN ON MODEL PROFILES AND 00Z FFC SOUNDING.
CORRESPONDING GSO SOUNDING HAS A SUBSTANTIAL SFC DRY LAYER BUT IS
NEARLY ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. MOST OF OUR AREA IS CAUGHT IN
BETWEEN WITH SOME DEGREE OF DRYNESS AND/OR WARM AIR ALOFT CREATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COMPLEXITY IN THE PTYPE BEFORE EVENTUALLY
SETTLING INTO ALL SNOW. WE HAVE GOTTEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXED WITH SNOW OR RAIN FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AREA. 18Z NAM
INDICATED THE LAYER WOULD ERODE QUICKLY. FURTHER NORTH THE PTYPES
HAVE BEEN MAINLY SNOW.

I FELT MOST COMFORTABLE USING THE REVISED WPC QPF GRIDS WHICH WERE
VERY SIMILAR THIS EVENING BUT HIGHER LATER TONIGHT. WITH EVAPORATING
PRECIP SEEMING TO HAVE AN UNDERSTANDABLY SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON SFC
TEMPS AROUND THE CWFA...REVISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO NEAR MODEL WET
BULB VALUES AFTER PRECIP GETS UNDERWAY. THIS PRODUCED MOSTLY SNOW
ACRS THE AREA BUT WITH THE RA/SN LINE REMAINING SOMEWHAT FIXED
OVERNIGHT ACRS OUR SRN TIER OF ELBERT-ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD COUNTIES.
MOSTLY ON ACCOUNT OF SOMEWHAT SLOWER COOLING...REVISED STORM
SNOW TOTALS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH LOWER IN
THAT SRN TIER WHERE MIXED PRECIP PREDOMINATES. WE FEEL PRETTY
COMFORTABLE WITH THESE TOTALS IN LIGHT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR DUE TO PASSING EPV
MIN THRU THE LATE EVENING...PREVIOUSLY REPORTED SNOWFALL RATES NEAR
1 IN/HR ALREADY OCCURRING..AND ON UPWARD TRENDS IN SREF PLUMES.

AT 230 PM...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE STILL SOLIDLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL SORTS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. NO NEED TO GO
INTO DETAILS ON THAT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT BANDING WILL DEVELOP AND ALSO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL SET UP. STILL EXPECT THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BECOME
SUFFICENT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SNOW PROFILES TO PREDOMINATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF
PRECIP MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AS RAIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IS NOW TO SHOW THE MAXIMUM FROM THE EASTERN
UPSTATE...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WHERE 8-10
INCHES IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF
INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MESO MODELS ARE HITTING THAT AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THE FFC MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSE
BELOW 700 MB SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH ELBERT COUNTY
GA...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC. THUS...SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH. OF COURSE THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
SNOW/RAIN LINE ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

THE SNOW WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THU. THU SHOLD BE DRY OTHER THAN
FOR SOME SCT SW- OVER THE ESCARPMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. USED
PRIMARLILY A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR MOST FIELDS TONIGHT TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING. ALSO SHADED MAX TEMPS ON THU
TOWEARD THE COOLEST RAW GFS NUMBERS IN DEFERENCE TO SNOW...AND THAT
MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODEST CAA ACROSS THE MTNS WITH H85 WINDS AROUND 15KTS. WEAK FLOW
MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHSN ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN
THE 20S AND HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW
40S EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. H85 TEMPS MAY COOL TO -10C ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NC ZONES...WITH MID
TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. COLD THICKNESSES AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS
TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED PER
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A
GRADUALLY DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROF AND BUILDING EASTERN RIDGE.
THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN BROAD DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SFC...COOL HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT TO SAG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. POPS WERE
CUT BACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AND SUNDAY/S POPS MAY STILL BE
OVERDONE...AS MODELS TREND LATER WITH THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA AND STALLS EAST-WEST ALONG THE GULF
STATES...ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE INDICATED IN THE MODELS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY...USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...POPS ARE HIGH-END
CHC TO LIKELY EVERY PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. GRANTED...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LULLS IN PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS TOO LOW TO GET INTO THE GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...THICKNESSES LOOK TO WARM TO
LIMIT WINTER PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS. IF SOME PRECIP IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE ANAFRONT WITHIN THE LINGERING DRIER HIGH PRES...THERE
MAY BE SOME WINTRY MIX...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OR NC FOOTHILLS.
OTHERWISE...I HAVE PRECIP ADVERTISED AS RAIN THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR MON-TUE...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WINTRY PRECIP IS A PRIMARY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES FROM THE GULF TO THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST. PROFILES WILL COOL TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW IF NOT
ALREADY. PEAK PRECIP RATES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 03-06Z TIMEFRAME WITH
LOCAL BURSTS IN SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLE DUE TO SLANTWISE CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. VIRTUALLY ALL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT...BUT SAVED THE LIFR MENTION WHERE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES WERE EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING VERY LATE TONIGHT...AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END A COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK THU. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF
A SCOURING MECHANISM DURING THE DAY HOWEVER AND ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE
LINGERS TO KEEP CIGS MVFR IF NOT LOWER. WINDS CONTINUE NELY THRU THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KAVL...BACKING TO NW THERE EARLY THU.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIG HGT RESTRICTIONS THRU FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 260117
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
817 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA INTO THURSDAY. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING NWD INTO THE CWFA FROM
THE SOUTH. TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED IN A BIT LESS
CUT AND DRY FASHION THAN ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE
WARM LAYER SEEN ON MODEL PROFILES AND 00Z FFC SOUNDING.
CORRESPONDING GSO SOUNDING HAS A SUBSTANTIAL SFC DRY LAYER BUT IS
NEARLY ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. MOST OF OUR AREA IS CAUGHT IN
BETWEEN WITH SOME DEGREE OF DRYNESS AND/OR WARM AIR ALOFT CREATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COMPLEXITY IN THE PTYPE BEFORE EVENTUALLY
SETTLING INTO ALL SNOW. WE HAVE GOTTEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXED WITH SNOW OR RAIN FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AREA. 18Z NAM
INDICATED THE LAYER WOULD ERODE QUICKLY. FURTHER NORTH THE PTYPES
HAVE BEEN MAINLY SNOW.

I FELT MOST COMFORTABLE USING THE REVISED WPC QPF GRIDS WHICH WERE
VERY SIMILAR THIS EVENING BUT HIGHER LATER TONIGHT. WITH EVAPORATING
PRECIP SEEMING TO HAVE AN UNDERSTANDABLY SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON SFC
TEMPS AROUND THE CWFA...REVISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO NEAR MODEL WET
BULB VALUES AFTER PRECIP GETS UNDERWAY. THIS PRODUCED MOSTLY SNOW
ACRS THE AREA BUT WITH THE RA/SN LINE REMAINING SOMEWHAT FIXED
OVERNIGHT ACRS OUR SRN TIER OF ELBERT-ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD COUNTIES.
MOSTLY ON ACCOUNT OF SOMEWHAT SLOWER COOLING...REVISED STORM
SNOW TOTALS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH LOWER IN
THAT SRN TIER WHERE MIXED PRECIP PREDOMINATES. WE FEEL PRETTY
COMFORTABLE WITH THESE TOTALS IN LIGHT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR DUE TO PASSING EPV
MIN THRU THE LATE EVENING...PREVIOUSLY REPORTED SNOWFALL RATES NEAR
1 IN/HR ALREADY OCCURRING..AND ON UPWARD TRENDS IN SREF PLUMES.

AT 230 PM...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE STILL SOLIDLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL SORTS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. NO NEED TO GO
INTO DETAILS ON THAT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT BANDING WILL DEVELOP AND ALSO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL SET UP. STILL EXPECT THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BECOME
SUFFICENT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SNOW PROFILES TO PREDOMINATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF
PRECIP MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AS RAIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IS NOW TO SHOW THE MAXIMUM FROM THE EASTERN
UPSTATE...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WHERE 8-10
INCHES IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF
INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MESO MODELS ARE HITTING THAT AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THE FFC MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSE
BELOW 700 MB SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH ELBERT COUNTY
GA...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC. THUS...SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH. OF COURSE THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
SNOW/RAIN LINE ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

THE SNOW WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THU. THU SHOLD BE DRY OTHER THAN
FOR SOME SCT SW- OVER THE ESCARPMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. USED
PRIMARLILY A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR MOST FIELDS TONIGHT TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING. ALSO SHADED MAX TEMPS ON THU
TOWEARD THE COOLEST RAW GFS NUMBERS IN DEFERENCE TO SNOW...AND THAT
MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODEST CAA ACROSS THE MTNS WITH H85 WINDS AROUND 15KTS. WEAK FLOW
MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHSN ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN
THE 20S AND HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW
40S EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. H85 TEMPS MAY COOL TO -10C ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NC ZONES...WITH MID
TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. COLD THICKNESSES AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS
TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED PER
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A
GRADUALLY DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROF AND BUILDING EASTERN RIDGE.
THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN BROAD DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SFC...COOL HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT TO SAG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. POPS WERE
CUT BACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AND SUNDAY/S POPS MAY STILL BE
OVERDONE...AS MODELS TREND LATER WITH THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA AND STALLS EAST-WEST ALONG THE GULF
STATES...ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE INDICATED IN THE MODELS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY...USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...POPS ARE HIGH-END
CHC TO LIKELY EVERY PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. GRANTED...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LULLS IN PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS TOO LOW TO GET INTO THE GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...THICKNESSES LOOK TO WARM TO
LIMIT WINTER PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS. IF SOME PRECIP IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE ANAFRONT WITHIN THE LINGERING DRIER HIGH PRES...THERE
MAY BE SOME WINTRY MIX...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OR NC FOOTHILLS.
OTHERWISE...I HAVE PRECIP ADVERTISED AS RAIN THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR MON-TUE...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WINTRY PRECIP IS A PRIMARY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES FROM THE GULF TO THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST. PROFILES WILL COOL TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW IF NOT
ALREADY. PEAK PRECIP RATES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 03-06Z TIMEFRAME WITH
LOCAL BURSTS IN SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLE DUE TO SLANTWISE CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. VIRTUALLY ALL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT...BUT SAVED THE LIFR MENTION WHERE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES WERE EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING VERY LATE TONIGHT...AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END A COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK THU. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF
A SCOURING MECHANISM DURING THE DAY HOWEVER AND ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE
LINGERS TO KEEP CIGS MVFR IF NOT LOWER. WINDS CONTINUE NELY THRU THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KAVL...BACKING TO NW THERE EARLY THU.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIG HGT RESTRICTIONS THRU FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260117
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
817 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA INTO THURSDAY. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING NWD INTO THE CWFA FROM
THE SOUTH. TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED IN A BIT LESS
CUT AND DRY FASHION THAN ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE
WARM LAYER SEEN ON MODEL PROFILES AND 00Z FFC SOUNDING.
CORRESPONDING GSO SOUNDING HAS A SUBSTANTIAL SFC DRY LAYER BUT IS
NEARLY ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. MOST OF OUR AREA IS CAUGHT IN
BETWEEN WITH SOME DEGREE OF DRYNESS AND/OR WARM AIR ALOFT CREATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COMPLEXITY IN THE PTYPE BEFORE EVENTUALLY
SETTLING INTO ALL SNOW. WE HAVE GOTTEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXED WITH SNOW OR RAIN FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AREA. 18Z NAM
INDICATED THE LAYER WOULD ERODE QUICKLY. FURTHER NORTH THE PTYPES
HAVE BEEN MAINLY SNOW.

I FELT MOST COMFORTABLE USING THE REVISED WPC QPF GRIDS WHICH WERE
VERY SIMILAR THIS EVENING BUT HIGHER LATER TONIGHT. WITH EVAPORATING
PRECIP SEEMING TO HAVE AN UNDERSTANDABLY SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON SFC
TEMPS AROUND THE CWFA...REVISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO NEAR MODEL WET
BULB VALUES AFTER PRECIP GETS UNDERWAY. THIS PRODUCED MOSTLY SNOW
ACRS THE AREA BUT WITH THE RA/SN LINE REMAINING SOMEWHAT FIXED
OVERNIGHT ACRS OUR SRN TIER OF ELBERT-ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD COUNTIES.
MOSTLY ON ACCOUNT OF SOMEWHAT SLOWER COOLING...REVISED STORM
SNOW TOTALS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH LOWER IN
THAT SRN TIER WHERE MIXED PRECIP PREDOMINATES. WE FEEL PRETTY
COMFORTABLE WITH THESE TOTALS IN LIGHT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR DUE TO PASSING EPV
MIN THRU THE LATE EVENING...PREVIOUSLY REPORTED SNOWFALL RATES NEAR
1 IN/HR ALREADY OCCURRING..AND ON UPWARD TRENDS IN SREF PLUMES.

AT 230 PM...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE STILL SOLIDLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL SORTS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. NO NEED TO GO
INTO DETAILS ON THAT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT BANDING WILL DEVELOP AND ALSO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL SET UP. STILL EXPECT THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BECOME
SUFFICENT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SNOW PROFILES TO PREDOMINATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF
PRECIP MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AS RAIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IS NOW TO SHOW THE MAXIMUM FROM THE EASTERN
UPSTATE...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WHERE 8-10
INCHES IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF
INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MESO MODELS ARE HITTING THAT AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THE FFC MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSE
BELOW 700 MB SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH ELBERT COUNTY
GA...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC. THUS...SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH. OF COURSE THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
SNOW/RAIN LINE ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

THE SNOW WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THU. THU SHOLD BE DRY OTHER THAN
FOR SOME SCT SW- OVER THE ESCARPMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. USED
PRIMARLILY A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR MOST FIELDS TONIGHT TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING. ALSO SHADED MAX TEMPS ON THU
TOWEARD THE COOLEST RAW GFS NUMBERS IN DEFERENCE TO SNOW...AND THAT
MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODEST CAA ACROSS THE MTNS WITH H85 WINDS AROUND 15KTS. WEAK FLOW
MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHSN ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN
THE 20S AND HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW
40S EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. H85 TEMPS MAY COOL TO -10C ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NC ZONES...WITH MID
TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. COLD THICKNESSES AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS
TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED PER
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A
GRADUALLY DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROF AND BUILDING EASTERN RIDGE.
THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN BROAD DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SFC...COOL HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT TO SAG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. POPS WERE
CUT BACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AND SUNDAY/S POPS MAY STILL BE
OVERDONE...AS MODELS TREND LATER WITH THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA AND STALLS EAST-WEST ALONG THE GULF
STATES...ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE INDICATED IN THE MODELS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY...USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...POPS ARE HIGH-END
CHC TO LIKELY EVERY PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. GRANTED...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LULLS IN PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS TOO LOW TO GET INTO THE GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...THICKNESSES LOOK TO WARM TO
LIMIT WINTER PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS. IF SOME PRECIP IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE ANAFRONT WITHIN THE LINGERING DRIER HIGH PRES...THERE
MAY BE SOME WINTRY MIX...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OR NC FOOTHILLS.
OTHERWISE...I HAVE PRECIP ADVERTISED AS RAIN THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR MON-TUE...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WINTRY PRECIP IS A PRIMARY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES FROM THE GULF TO THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST. PROFILES WILL COOL TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW IF NOT
ALREADY. PEAK PRECIP RATES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 03-06Z TIMEFRAME WITH
LOCAL BURSTS IN SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLE DUE TO SLANTWISE CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. VIRTUALLY ALL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT...BUT SAVED THE LIFR MENTION WHERE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES WERE EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING VERY LATE TONIGHT...AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END A COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK THU. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF
A SCOURING MECHANISM DURING THE DAY HOWEVER AND ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE
LINGERS TO KEEP CIGS MVFR IF NOT LOWER. WINDS CONTINUE NELY THRU THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KAVL...BACKING TO NW THERE EARLY THU.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIG HGT RESTRICTIONS THRU FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260117
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
817 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA INTO THURSDAY. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING NWD INTO THE CWFA FROM
THE SOUTH. TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED IN A BIT LESS
CUT AND DRY FASHION THAN ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE
WARM LAYER SEEN ON MODEL PROFILES AND 00Z FFC SOUNDING.
CORRESPONDING GSO SOUNDING HAS A SUBSTANTIAL SFC DRY LAYER BUT IS
NEARLY ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. MOST OF OUR AREA IS CAUGHT IN
BETWEEN WITH SOME DEGREE OF DRYNESS AND/OR WARM AIR ALOFT CREATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COMPLEXITY IN THE PTYPE BEFORE EVENTUALLY
SETTLING INTO ALL SNOW. WE HAVE GOTTEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXED WITH SNOW OR RAIN FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AREA. 18Z NAM
INDICATED THE LAYER WOULD ERODE QUICKLY. FURTHER NORTH THE PTYPES
HAVE BEEN MAINLY SNOW.

I FELT MOST COMFORTABLE USING THE REVISED WPC QPF GRIDS WHICH WERE
VERY SIMILAR THIS EVENING BUT HIGHER LATER TONIGHT. WITH EVAPORATING
PRECIP SEEMING TO HAVE AN UNDERSTANDABLY SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON SFC
TEMPS AROUND THE CWFA...REVISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO NEAR MODEL WET
BULB VALUES AFTER PRECIP GETS UNDERWAY. THIS PRODUCED MOSTLY SNOW
ACRS THE AREA BUT WITH THE RA/SN LINE REMAINING SOMEWHAT FIXED
OVERNIGHT ACRS OUR SRN TIER OF ELBERT-ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD COUNTIES.
MOSTLY ON ACCOUNT OF SOMEWHAT SLOWER COOLING...REVISED STORM
SNOW TOTALS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH LOWER IN
THAT SRN TIER WHERE MIXED PRECIP PREDOMINATES. WE FEEL PRETTY
COMFORTABLE WITH THESE TOTALS IN LIGHT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR DUE TO PASSING EPV
MIN THRU THE LATE EVENING...PREVIOUSLY REPORTED SNOWFALL RATES NEAR
1 IN/HR ALREADY OCCURRING..AND ON UPWARD TRENDS IN SREF PLUMES.

AT 230 PM...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE STILL SOLIDLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL SORTS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. NO NEED TO GO
INTO DETAILS ON THAT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT BANDING WILL DEVELOP AND ALSO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL SET UP. STILL EXPECT THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BECOME
SUFFICENT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SNOW PROFILES TO PREDOMINATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF
PRECIP MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AS RAIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IS NOW TO SHOW THE MAXIMUM FROM THE EASTERN
UPSTATE...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WHERE 8-10
INCHES IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF
INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MESO MODELS ARE HITTING THAT AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THE FFC MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSE
BELOW 700 MB SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH ELBERT COUNTY
GA...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC. THUS...SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH. OF COURSE THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
SNOW/RAIN LINE ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

THE SNOW WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THU. THU SHOLD BE DRY OTHER THAN
FOR SOME SCT SW- OVER THE ESCARPMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. USED
PRIMARLILY A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR MOST FIELDS TONIGHT TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING. ALSO SHADED MAX TEMPS ON THU
TOWEARD THE COOLEST RAW GFS NUMBERS IN DEFERENCE TO SNOW...AND THAT
MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODEST CAA ACROSS THE MTNS WITH H85 WINDS AROUND 15KTS. WEAK FLOW
MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHSN ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN
THE 20S AND HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW
40S EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. H85 TEMPS MAY COOL TO -10C ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NC ZONES...WITH MID
TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. COLD THICKNESSES AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS
TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED PER
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A
GRADUALLY DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROF AND BUILDING EASTERN RIDGE.
THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN BROAD DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SFC...COOL HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT TO SAG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. POPS WERE
CUT BACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AND SUNDAY/S POPS MAY STILL BE
OVERDONE...AS MODELS TREND LATER WITH THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA AND STALLS EAST-WEST ALONG THE GULF
STATES...ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE INDICATED IN THE MODELS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY...USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...POPS ARE HIGH-END
CHC TO LIKELY EVERY PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. GRANTED...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LULLS IN PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS TOO LOW TO GET INTO THE GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...THICKNESSES LOOK TO WARM TO
LIMIT WINTER PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS. IF SOME PRECIP IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE ANAFRONT WITHIN THE LINGERING DRIER HIGH PRES...THERE
MAY BE SOME WINTRY MIX...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OR NC FOOTHILLS.
OTHERWISE...I HAVE PRECIP ADVERTISED AS RAIN THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR MON-TUE...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WINTRY PRECIP IS A PRIMARY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES FROM THE GULF TO THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST. PROFILES WILL COOL TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW IF NOT
ALREADY. PEAK PRECIP RATES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 03-06Z TIMEFRAME WITH
LOCAL BURSTS IN SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLE DUE TO SLANTWISE CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. VIRTUALLY ALL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT...BUT SAVED THE LIFR MENTION WHERE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES WERE EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING VERY LATE TONIGHT...AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END A COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK THU. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF
A SCOURING MECHANISM DURING THE DAY HOWEVER AND ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE
LINGERS TO KEEP CIGS MVFR IF NOT LOWER. WINDS CONTINUE NELY THRU THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KAVL...BACKING TO NW THERE EARLY THU.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIG HGT RESTRICTIONS THRU FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 260030
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
730 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA INTO THURSDAY. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING NWD INTO THE CWFA FROM
THE SOUTH. TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED IN A BIT LESS
CUT AND DRY FASHION THAN ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE
WARM/DRY LAYER SEEN ON MODEL PROFILES AND 00Z FFC SOUNDING. THE
LAYER IS WARM ENOUGH TO MELT FALLING SNOW BUT DRY ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL TO EVAPORATIVELY COOL AFTER ONSET OF PRECIP.
WE HAVE GOTTEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW OR RAIN
FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AREA. 18Z NAM INDICATED THE LAYER
WOULD ERODE QUICKLY. FURTHER NORTH THE PTYPES HAVE BEEN MAINLY SNOW.
I FELT MOST COMFORTABLE USING THE REVISED WPC QPF GRIDS WHICH WERE
VERY SIMILAR THIS EVENING BUT HIGHER LATER TONIGHT. WITH EVAPORATING
PRECIP SEEMING TO HAVE AN UNDERSTANDABLY SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON SFC
TEMPS AROUND THE CWFA...REVISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO NEAR MODEL WET
BULB VALUES AFTER PRECIP GETS UNDERWAY. THIS PRODUCED MOSTLY SNOW
ACRS THE AREA BUT WITH THE RA/SN LINE REMAINING SOMEWHAT FIXED
OVERNIGHT ACRS OUR SRN TIER OF ELBERT-ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD COUNTIES.
MOSTLY ON ACCOUNT OF SOMEWHAT SLOWER COOLING...REVISED STORM
SNOW TOTALS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH LOWER IN
THAT SRN TIER WHERE MIXED PRECIP PREDOMINATES. WE FEEL PRETTY
COMFORTABLE WITH THESE TOTALS IN LIGHT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR DUE TO PASSING EPV
MIN THRU THE LATE EVENING...PREVIOUSLY REPORTED SNOWFALL RATES NEAR
1 IN/HR ALREADY OCCURRING..AND ON UPWARD TRENDS IN SREF PLUMES.

AT 230 PM...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE STILL SOLIDLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL SORTS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. NO NEED TO GO
INTO DETAILS ON THAT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT BANDING WILL DEVELOP AND ALSO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL SET UP. STILL EXPECT THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BECOME
SUFFICENT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SNOW PROFILES TO PREDOMINATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF
PRECIP MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AS RAIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IS NOW TO SHOW THE MAXIMUM FROM THE EASTERN
UPSTATE...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WHERE 8-10
INCHES IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF
INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MESO MODELS ARE HITTING THAT AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THE FFC MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSE
BELOW 700 MB SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH ELBERT COUNTY
GA...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC. THUS...SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH. OF COURSE THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
SNOW/RAIN LINE ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

THE SNOW WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THU. THU SHOLD BE DRY OTHER THAN
FOR SOME SCT SW- OVER THE ESCARPMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. USED
PRIMARLILY A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR MOST FIELDS TONIGHT TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING. ALSO SHADED MAX TEMPS ON THU
TOWEARD THE COOLEST RAW GFS NUMBERS IN DEFERENCE TO SNOW...AND THAT
MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODEST CAA ACROSS THE MTNS WITH H85 WINDS AROUND 15KTS. WEAK FLOW
MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHSN ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN
THE 20S AND HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW
40S EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. H85 TEMPS MAY COOL TO -10C ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NC ZONES...WITH MID
TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. COLD THICKNESSES AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS
TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED PER
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A
GRADUALLY DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROF AND BUILDING EASTERN RIDGE.
THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN BROAD DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SFC...COOL HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT TO SAG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. POPS WERE
CUT BACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AND SUNDAY/S POPS MAY STILL BE
OVERDONE...AS MODELS TREND LATER WITH THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA AND STALLS EAST-WEST ALONG THE GULF
STATES...ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE INDICATED IN THE MODELS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY...USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...POPS ARE HIGH-END
CHC TO LIKELY EVERY PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. GRANTED...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LULLS IN PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS TOO LOW TO GET INTO THE GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...THICKNESSES LOOK TO WARM TO
LIMIT WINTER PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS. IF SOME PRECIP IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE ANAFRONT WITHIN THE LINGERING DRIER HIGH PRES...THERE
MAY BE SOME WINTRY MIX...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OR NC FOOTHILLS.
OTHERWISE...I HAVE PRECIP ADVERTISED AS RAIN THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR MON-TUE...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WINTRY PRECIP IS A PRIMARY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES FROM THE GULF TO THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST. PROFILES WILL COOL TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW IF NOT
ALREADY. PEAK PRECIP RATES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 03-06Z TIMEFRAME WITH
LOCAL BURSTS IN SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLE DUE TO SLANTWISE CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. VIRTUALLY ALL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT...BUT SAVED THE LIFR MENTION WHERE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES WERE EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING VERY LATE TONIGHT...AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END A COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK THU. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF
A SCOURING MECHANISM DURING THE DAY HOWEVER AND ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE
LINGERS TO KEEP CIGS MVFR IF NOT LOWER. WINDS CONTINUE NELY THRU THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KAVL...BACKING TO NW THERE EARLY THU.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIG HGT RESTRICTIONS THRU FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260030
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
730 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA INTO THURSDAY. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY AND SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...PRECIP GRADUALLY SPREADING NWD INTO THE CWFA FROM
THE SOUTH. TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED IN A BIT LESS
CUT AND DRY FASHION THAN ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE
WARM/DRY LAYER SEEN ON MODEL PROFILES AND 00Z FFC SOUNDING. THE
LAYER IS WARM ENOUGH TO MELT FALLING SNOW BUT DRY ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL TO EVAPORATIVELY COOL AFTER ONSET OF PRECIP.
WE HAVE GOTTEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW OR RAIN
FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AREA. 18Z NAM INDICATED THE LAYER
WOULD ERODE QUICKLY. FURTHER NORTH THE PTYPES HAVE BEEN MAINLY SNOW.
I FELT MOST COMFORTABLE USING THE REVISED WPC QPF GRIDS WHICH WERE
VERY SIMILAR THIS EVENING BUT HIGHER LATER TONIGHT. WITH EVAPORATING
PRECIP SEEMING TO HAVE AN UNDERSTANDABLY SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON SFC
TEMPS AROUND THE CWFA...REVISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO NEAR MODEL WET
BULB VALUES AFTER PRECIP GETS UNDERWAY. THIS PRODUCED MOSTLY SNOW
ACRS THE AREA BUT WITH THE RA/SN LINE REMAINING SOMEWHAT FIXED
OVERNIGHT ACRS OUR SRN TIER OF ELBERT-ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD COUNTIES.
MOSTLY ON ACCOUNT OF SOMEWHAT SLOWER COOLING...REVISED STORM
SNOW TOTALS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH LOWER IN
THAT SRN TIER WHERE MIXED PRECIP PREDOMINATES. WE FEEL PRETTY
COMFORTABLE WITH THESE TOTALS IN LIGHT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR DUE TO PASSING EPV
MIN THRU THE LATE EVENING...PREVIOUSLY REPORTED SNOWFALL RATES NEAR
1 IN/HR ALREADY OCCURRING..AND ON UPWARD TRENDS IN SREF PLUMES.

AT 230 PM...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE STILL SOLIDLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL SORTS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. NO NEED TO GO
INTO DETAILS ON THAT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT BANDING WILL DEVELOP AND ALSO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL SET UP. STILL EXPECT THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BECOME
SUFFICENT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SNOW PROFILES TO PREDOMINATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF
PRECIP MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AS RAIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IS NOW TO SHOW THE MAXIMUM FROM THE EASTERN
UPSTATE...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WHERE 8-10
INCHES IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF
INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MESO MODELS ARE HITTING THAT AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THE FFC MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSE
BELOW 700 MB SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH ELBERT COUNTY
GA...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC. THUS...SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH. OF COURSE THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
SNOW/RAIN LINE ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

THE SNOW WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THU. THU SHOLD BE DRY OTHER THAN
FOR SOME SCT SW- OVER THE ESCARPMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. USED
PRIMARLILY A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR MOST FIELDS TONIGHT TRYING TO
CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING. ALSO SHADED MAX TEMPS ON THU
TOWEARD THE COOLEST RAW GFS NUMBERS IN DEFERENCE TO SNOW...AND THAT
MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODEST CAA ACROSS THE MTNS WITH H85 WINDS AROUND 15KTS. WEAK FLOW
MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT SHSN ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN
THE 20S AND HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW
40S EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. H85 TEMPS MAY COOL TO -10C ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NC ZONES...WITH MID
TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. COLD THICKNESSES AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS
TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED PER
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A
GRADUALLY DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROF AND BUILDING EASTERN RIDGE.
THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN BROAD DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SFC...COOL HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT TO SAG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. POPS WERE
CUT BACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AND SUNDAY/S POPS MAY STILL BE
OVERDONE...AS MODELS TREND LATER WITH THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA AND STALLS EAST-WEST ALONG THE GULF
STATES...ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE INDICATED IN THE MODELS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY...USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...POPS ARE HIGH-END
CHC TO LIKELY EVERY PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. GRANTED...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LULLS IN PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS TOO LOW TO GET INTO THE GRIDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...THICKNESSES LOOK TO WARM TO
LIMIT WINTER PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS. IF SOME PRECIP IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE ANAFRONT WITHIN THE LINGERING DRIER HIGH PRES...THERE
MAY BE SOME WINTRY MIX...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OR NC FOOTHILLS.
OTHERWISE...I HAVE PRECIP ADVERTISED AS RAIN THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR MON-TUE...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WINTRY PRECIP IS A PRIMARY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES FROM THE GULF TO THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST. PROFILES WILL COOL TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW IF NOT
ALREADY. PEAK PRECIP RATES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 03-06Z TIMEFRAME WITH
LOCAL BURSTS IN SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLE DUE TO SLANTWISE CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. VIRTUALLY ALL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT...BUT SAVED THE LIFR MENTION WHERE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES WERE EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING VERY LATE TONIGHT...AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END A COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK THU. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF
A SCOURING MECHANISM DURING THE DAY HOWEVER AND ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE
LINGERS TO KEEP CIGS MVFR IF NOT LOWER. WINDS CONTINUE NELY THRU THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KAVL...BACKING TO NW THERE EARLY THU.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIG HGT RESTRICTIONS THRU FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





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