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000
FXUS62 KGSP 291829
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291829
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 291806
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291806
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 291453
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1053 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED INTO THE NW NC PIEDMONT
WITHIN WEDGELIKE AIR MASS NORTH OF PESKY BACK DOOR FRONT. THE DECK/S
PROGRESS HAS SLOWED EVIDENTLY DUE TO MIXING ALONG THE EDGES AS
TEMPERATURES RISE. NONETHELESS IT STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF LASTING
INTO MIDDAY DUE TO UPGLIDE ATOP THE COOLER LAYER. BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE FCST AT THIS UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT THE MCLDY SKIES IN THIS AREA.
AS FOR POPS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS DEEP CONVECTION ONLY
OVER THE RIDGETOPS TODAY...DESPITE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEN
ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER. THIS EVIDENCED BY RAP SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
THE TOWERS SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE DECK ON SATELLITE OVER THE TRIAD
REGION. MAINTAINED SIMILAR POP TRENDS TO THOSE FROM EARLIER PACKAGE
BUT FOCUSED THEM MORE OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT THIS MRNG FOR THE
LATTER REASON. NEWEST GUID ALSO ALLOWS SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO
FIRE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WEDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
BY THEN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A CONSENSUS BEFORE ADDING ANY
POPS FOR IT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER IN THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED
BOUNDARY...BUT MIXING IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT IT FROM FORMING A CIG
AT THE FIELD EXCEPT MAYBE BRIEFLY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS
THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. SOME LOW
END GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THIS MORNING. CARRIED LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT KAVL
SATURDAY MORNING. INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN INTRODUCTION OF
MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE CONDENSES ALONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OLD STATIONARY
FRONT. VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH SKIES SCT OUT AND
WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS NORTHERLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%     MED   65%
KHKY       MED   61%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG/WIMBERLEY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 291453
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1053 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED INTO THE NW NC PIEDMONT
WITHIN WEDGELIKE AIR MASS NORTH OF PESKY BACK DOOR FRONT. THE DECK/S
PROGRESS HAS SLOWED EVIDENTLY DUE TO MIXING ALONG THE EDGES AS
TEMPERATURES RISE. NONETHELESS IT STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF LASTING
INTO MIDDAY DUE TO UPGLIDE ATOP THE COOLER LAYER. BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE FCST AT THIS UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT THE MCLDY SKIES IN THIS AREA.
AS FOR POPS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS DEEP CONVECTION ONLY
OVER THE RIDGETOPS TODAY...DESPITE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEN
ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER. THIS EVIDENCED BY RAP SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
THE TOWERS SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE DECK ON SATELLITE OVER THE TRIAD
REGION. MAINTAINED SIMILAR POP TRENDS TO THOSE FROM EARLIER PACKAGE
BUT FOCUSED THEM MORE OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT THIS MRNG FOR THE
LATTER REASON. NEWEST GUID ALSO ALLOWS SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO
FIRE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WEDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
BY THEN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A CONSENSUS BEFORE ADDING ANY
POPS FOR IT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER IN THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED
BOUNDARY...BUT MIXING IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT IT FROM FORMING A CIG
AT THE FIELD EXCEPT MAYBE BRIEFLY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS
THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. SOME LOW
END GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THIS MORNING. CARRIED LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT KAVL
SATURDAY MORNING. INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN INTRODUCTION OF
MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE CONDENSES ALONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OLD STATIONARY
FRONT. VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH SKIES SCT OUT AND
WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS NORTHERLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%     MED   65%
KHKY       MED   61%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG/WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291432
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1032 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED INTO THE NW NC PIEDMONT
WITHIN WEDGELIKE AIR MASS NORTH OF PESKY BACK DOOR FRONT. THE DECK/S
PROGRESS HAS SLOWED EVIDENTLY DUE TO MIXING ALONG THE EDGES AS
TEMPERATURES RISE. NONETHELESS IT STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF LASTING
INTO MIDDAY DUE TO UPGLIDE ATOP THE COOLER LAYER. BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE FCST AT THIS UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT THE MCLDY SKIES IN THIS AREA.
AS FOR POPS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS DEEP CONVECTION ONLY
OVER THE RIDGETOPS TODAY...DESPITE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEN
ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER. THIS EVIDENCED BY RAP SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
THE TOWERS SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE DECK ON SATELLITE OVER THE TRIAD
REGION. MAINTAINED SIMILAR POP TRENDS TO THOSE FROM EARLIER PACKAGE
BUT FOCUSED THEM MORE OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT THIS MRNG FOR THE
LATTER REASON. NEWEST GUID ALSO ALLOWS SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO
FIRE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WEDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
BY THEN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A CONSENSUS BEFORE ADDING ANY
POPS FOR IT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING SKY COVER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LATER
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH
ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.  THUS...LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND LOWER OVER THE AIRFIELD AROUND
THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH NO CIG RESTRICIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
TAF ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SCT025.  THIS LOW SCT STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BY APPROX 18Z.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING
BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING.  CARRIED LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW
VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT
KAVL SATURDAY MORNING.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN
INTRODUCTION OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE
CONDENSES ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
OLD STATIONARY FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH
SKIES SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     MED   74%
KHKY       MED   66%     HIGH  92%     MED   66%     MED   75%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291432
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1032 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED INTO THE NW NC PIEDMONT
WITHIN WEDGELIKE AIR MASS NORTH OF PESKY BACK DOOR FRONT. THE DECK/S
PROGRESS HAS SLOWED EVIDENTLY DUE TO MIXING ALONG THE EDGES AS
TEMPERATURES RISE. NONETHELESS IT STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF LASTING
INTO MIDDAY DUE TO UPGLIDE ATOP THE COOLER LAYER. BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE FCST AT THIS UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT THE MCLDY SKIES IN THIS AREA.
AS FOR POPS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS DEEP CONVECTION ONLY
OVER THE RIDGETOPS TODAY...DESPITE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEN
ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER. THIS EVIDENCED BY RAP SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
THE TOWERS SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE DECK ON SATELLITE OVER THE TRIAD
REGION. MAINTAINED SIMILAR POP TRENDS TO THOSE FROM EARLIER PACKAGE
BUT FOCUSED THEM MORE OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT THIS MRNG FOR THE
LATTER REASON. NEWEST GUID ALSO ALLOWS SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO
FIRE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WEDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
BY THEN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A CONSENSUS BEFORE ADDING ANY
POPS FOR IT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING SKY COVER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LATER
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH
ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.  THUS...LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND LOWER OVER THE AIRFIELD AROUND
THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH NO CIG RESTRICIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
TAF ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SCT025.  THIS LOW SCT STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BY APPROX 18Z.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING
BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING.  CARRIED LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW
VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT
KAVL SATURDAY MORNING.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN
INTRODUCTION OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE
CONDENSES ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
OLD STATIONARY FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH
SKIES SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     MED   74%
KHKY       MED   66%     HIGH  92%     MED   66%     MED   75%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 291038
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
638 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
PER LATEST OBS AND SAT IMAGERY.  FURTHER WEST INTO THE
MOUNTAINS...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS OCCURRED AND CONTINUES IN AND
AROUND THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER HAS BEEN RESISTANT TO
DEVELOP IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.  DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT KAVL
ARE CURRENTLY AT 2 DEGREES AND ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT ANY FOG
WILL OCCUR.  TWEAKED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING SKY COVER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LATER
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH
ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.  THUS...LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND LOWER OVER THE AIRFIELD AROUND
THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH NO CIG RESTRICIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
TAF ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SCT025.  THIS LOW SCT STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BY APPROX 18Z.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING
BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING.  CARRIED LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW
VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT
KAVL SATURDAY MORNING.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN
INTRODUCTION OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE
CONDENSES ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
OLD STATIONARY FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH
SKIES SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 291038
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
638 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
PER LATEST OBS AND SAT IMAGERY.  FURTHER WEST INTO THE
MOUNTAINS...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS OCCURRED AND CONTINUES IN AND
AROUND THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER HAS BEEN RESISTANT TO
DEVELOP IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.  DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT KAVL
ARE CURRENTLY AT 2 DEGREES AND ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT ANY FOG
WILL OCCUR.  TWEAKED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING SKY COVER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LATER
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH
ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.  THUS...LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND LOWER OVER THE AIRFIELD AROUND
THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH NO CIG RESTRICIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
TAF ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SCT025.  THIS LOW SCT STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BY APPROX 18Z.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING
BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING.  CARRIED LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW
VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT
KAVL SATURDAY MORNING.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN
INTRODUCTION OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE
CONDENSES ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
OLD STATIONARY FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH
SKIES SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 290801
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  QUASI
STATIONARY BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER CALM AND UNEVENTFUL UNTIL MID MORNING
BEFORE SKY COVER INCREASES ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.
THUS...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE 14Z TIMEFRAME
WITH NO CIGS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE SKY COVER THAT
WOULD LEAD TO MVFR CIGS...OPTED FOR THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTIONS
AND WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.  NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE VEERING
SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH.  WITH THAT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ERODE AS LCLS LIFT TO ROUGHLY 5KFT.
CARRIED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW VFR CU FROM 23Z ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS OF KAVL AND KHKY WHERE IFR
AND MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS
VFR THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS
AT KAVL WITH AN IFR TEMPO NEAR DAYBREAK.  AS FOR KHKY...GUIDANCE WAS
HINTING AT REDUCED VISB NEAR DAYBREAK...HOWEVER SINCE THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OPTED FOR
AN MVFR TEMPO FOR FOG.  BEYOND THAT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL
SITES ASIDE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KHKY AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OLD STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH SKIES
SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED OLD
FRONT MIGRATES NORTH.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  92%     MED   67%     HIGH  92%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 290801
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  QUASI
STATIONARY BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER CALM AND UNEVENTFUL UNTIL MID MORNING
BEFORE SKY COVER INCREASES ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.
THUS...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE 14Z TIMEFRAME
WITH NO CIGS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE SKY COVER THAT
WOULD LEAD TO MVFR CIGS...OPTED FOR THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTIONS
AND WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.  NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE VEERING
SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH.  WITH THAT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ERODE AS LCLS LIFT TO ROUGHLY 5KFT.
CARRIED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW VFR CU FROM 23Z ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS OF KAVL AND KHKY WHERE IFR
AND MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS
VFR THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS
AT KAVL WITH AN IFR TEMPO NEAR DAYBREAK.  AS FOR KHKY...GUIDANCE WAS
HINTING AT REDUCED VISB NEAR DAYBREAK...HOWEVER SINCE THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OPTED FOR
AN MVFR TEMPO FOR FOG.  BEYOND THAT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL
SITES ASIDE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KHKY AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OLD STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH SKIES
SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED OLD
FRONT MIGRATES NORTH.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  92%     MED   67%     HIGH  92%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 290601
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS BY MID MORNING.  THUS...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
AND NO CHANGES WERE WARRANTED WITH THIS UPDATE.  DID TWEAK
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

EVENING UPDATE...THE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW
TOP CONVECTION IS WANING AS EXPECTED...YET A MERGED SHOWER IS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE BALSAMS NEAR WAYNESVILLE. THIS CELL HAS
PRODUCED AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST HR...BUT WILL EXPECT
A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREAS OF DENSE MTN
VALLEY FOG WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE RECENT
ISOL RAINFALL...IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS
MORNING. MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH LOWS REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
IN LIMITED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...SFC TROF CONVG REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE NC MTNS
AND FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING AND -SHRA/TSTMS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM MLVLS. EXPECT
LOW TOP CONVC TO WANE QUICKLY AFT SUNSET IN WEAK FORCING. THE FCST
GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO SKY
AND TEMPS.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...A WEAK CONVG ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. NOT MUCH VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS MLVLS ARE TOO
WARM...BUT A FEW -SHRA CELLS ARE GENERATING ACROSS THE NC MTN RIDGES
AND THE FAR NRN FTHILLS. A BROAD SFC TROF WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE INTO
THE LOWER FTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. SFC/BASED CAPE VALUES PER RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE VERY LOW END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONG
ULVL RIDGING LIMITING ENHANCED/DEEP CONV. THUS...MOST CELLS THAT GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON/THUNDEROUS...WITH ISOL
SHORT/LIVED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  QUASI
STATIONARY BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER CALM AND UNEVENTFUL UNTIL MID MORNING
BEFORE SKY COVER INCREASES ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.
THUS...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE 14Z TIMEFRAME
WITH NO CIGS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE SKY COVER THAT
WOULD LEAD TO MVFR CIGS...OPTED FOR THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTIONS
AND WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.  NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE VEERING
SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH.  WITH THAT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ERODE AS LCLS LIFT TO ROUGHLY 5KFT.
CARRIED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW VFR CU FROM 23Z ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS OF KAVL AND KHKY WHERE IFR
AND MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS
VFR THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS
AT KAVL WITH AN IFR TEMPO NEAR DAYBREAK.  AS FOR KHKY...GUIDANCE WAS
HINTING AT REDUCED VISB NEAR DAYBREAK...HOWEVER SINCE THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OPTED FOR
AN MVFR TEMPO FOR FOG.  BEYOND THAT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL
SITES ASIDE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KHKY AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OLD STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH SKIES
SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED OLD
FRONT MIGRATES NORTH.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  97%     MED   72%     MED   79%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 290601
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS BY MID MORNING.  THUS...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
AND NO CHANGES WERE WARRANTED WITH THIS UPDATE.  DID TWEAK
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

EVENING UPDATE...THE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW
TOP CONVECTION IS WANING AS EXPECTED...YET A MERGED SHOWER IS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE BALSAMS NEAR WAYNESVILLE. THIS CELL HAS
PRODUCED AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST HR...BUT WILL EXPECT
A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREAS OF DENSE MTN
VALLEY FOG WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE RECENT
ISOL RAINFALL...IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS
MORNING. MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH LOWS REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
IN LIMITED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...SFC TROF CONVG REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE NC MTNS
AND FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING AND -SHRA/TSTMS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM MLVLS. EXPECT
LOW TOP CONVC TO WANE QUICKLY AFT SUNSET IN WEAK FORCING. THE FCST
GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO SKY
AND TEMPS.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...A WEAK CONVG ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. NOT MUCH VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS MLVLS ARE TOO
WARM...BUT A FEW -SHRA CELLS ARE GENERATING ACROSS THE NC MTN RIDGES
AND THE FAR NRN FTHILLS. A BROAD SFC TROF WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE INTO
THE LOWER FTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. SFC/BASED CAPE VALUES PER RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE VERY LOW END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONG
ULVL RIDGING LIMITING ENHANCED/DEEP CONV. THUS...MOST CELLS THAT GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON/THUNDEROUS...WITH ISOL
SHORT/LIVED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  QUASI
STATIONARY BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER CALM AND UNEVENTFUL UNTIL MID MORNING
BEFORE SKY COVER INCREASES ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.
THUS...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE 14Z TIMEFRAME
WITH NO CIGS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE SKY COVER THAT
WOULD LEAD TO MVFR CIGS...OPTED FOR THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTIONS
AND WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.  NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE VEERING
SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH.  WITH THAT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ERODE AS LCLS LIFT TO ROUGHLY 5KFT.
CARRIED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW VFR CU FROM 23Z ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS OF KAVL AND KHKY WHERE IFR
AND MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS
VFR THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING MVFR VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS
AT KAVL WITH AN IFR TEMPO NEAR DAYBREAK.  AS FOR KHKY...GUIDANCE WAS
HINTING AT REDUCED VISB NEAR DAYBREAK...HOWEVER SINCE THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OPTED FOR
AN MVFR TEMPO FOR FOG.  BEYOND THAT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT ALL
SITES ASIDE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KHKY AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OLD STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH SKIES
SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED OLD
FRONT MIGRATES NORTH.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  97%     MED   72%     MED   79%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 290159
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
959 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW
TOP CONVECTION IS WANING AS EXPECTED...YET A MERGED SHOWER IS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE BALSAMS NEAR WAYNESVILLE. THIS CELL HAS
PRODUCED AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST HR...BUT WILL EXPECT
A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREAS OF DENSE MTN
VALLEY FG WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE RECENT
ISOL RAINFALL...IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS
MORNING. MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH LOWS REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
IN LIMITED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...SFC TROF CONVG REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE NC MTNS
AND FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING AND -SHRA/TSTMS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM MLVLS. EXPECT
LOW TOP CONVC TO WANE QUICKLY AFT SUNSET IN WEAK FORCING. THE FCST
GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO SKY
AND TEMPS.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...A WEAK CONVG ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. NOT MUCH VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS MLVLS ARE TOO
WARM...BUT A FEW -SHRA CELLS ARE GENERATING ACROSS THE NC MTN RIDGES
AND THE FAR NRN FTHILLS. A BROAD SFC TROF WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE INTO
THE LOWER FTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. SFC/BASED CAPE VALUES PER RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE VERY LOW END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONG
ULVL RIDGING LIMITING ENHANCED/DEEP CONV. THUS...MOST CELLS THAT GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON/THUNDEROUS...WITH ISOL
SHORT/LIVED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC BNDRY REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD...BUT SOME LLVL MOISTURE WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...YET NOT ENUF FOR A CONFIDENT LOW CIG CONCERN. STRONG
ULVL HIGH WILL GENERATE A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN WEAK NE/LY FLOW AFT 12Z.

ELSEWHERE...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
PERHAPS AT KAVL BY DAYBREAK. LLVL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH ISOL -SHRA...WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT
IFR FG VSBY AS TEMPS REACH CROSSOVER LEVELS. KHKY MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
-SHRA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL WAIT TO TEMPO ON CURRENT CONVC TRENDS.
DRY CONDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AS A STRONG ULVL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE AND PIEDMONT SFC BNDRY GETS SHUNTED TO A NE A LITTLE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       MED   63%     LOW   57%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       LOW   56%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   56%     LOW   57%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       LOW   56%     LOW   47%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   78%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   71%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 290159
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
959 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW
TOP CONVECTION IS WANING AS EXPECTED...YET A MERGED SHOWER IS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE BALSAMS NEAR WAYNESVILLE. THIS CELL HAS
PRODUCED AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST HR...BUT WILL EXPECT
A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREAS OF DENSE MTN
VALLEY FG WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE RECENT
ISOL RAINFALL...IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS
MORNING. MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH LOWS REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
IN LIMITED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...SFC TROF CONVG REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE NC MTNS
AND FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING AND -SHRA/TSTMS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM MLVLS. EXPECT
LOW TOP CONVC TO WANE QUICKLY AFT SUNSET IN WEAK FORCING. THE FCST
GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO SKY
AND TEMPS.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...A WEAK CONVG ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. NOT MUCH VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS MLVLS ARE TOO
WARM...BUT A FEW -SHRA CELLS ARE GENERATING ACROSS THE NC MTN RIDGES
AND THE FAR NRN FTHILLS. A BROAD SFC TROF WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE INTO
THE LOWER FTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. SFC/BASED CAPE VALUES PER RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE VERY LOW END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONG
ULVL RIDGING LIMITING ENHANCED/DEEP CONV. THUS...MOST CELLS THAT GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON/THUNDEROUS...WITH ISOL
SHORT/LIVED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC BNDRY REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD...BUT SOME LLVL MOISTURE WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...YET NOT ENUF FOR A CONFIDENT LOW CIG CONCERN. STRONG
ULVL HIGH WILL GENERATE A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN WEAK NE/LY FLOW AFT 12Z.

ELSEWHERE...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
PERHAPS AT KAVL BY DAYBREAK. LLVL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH ISOL -SHRA...WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT
IFR FG VSBY AS TEMPS REACH CROSSOVER LEVELS. KHKY MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
-SHRA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL WAIT TO TEMPO ON CURRENT CONVC TRENDS.
DRY CONDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AS A STRONG ULVL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE AND PIEDMONT SFC BNDRY GETS SHUNTED TO A NE A LITTLE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       MED   63%     LOW   57%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       LOW   56%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   56%     LOW   57%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       LOW   56%     LOW   47%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   78%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   71%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 282331
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
731 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...SFC TROF CONVG REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE NC MTNS
AND FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING AND -SHRA/TSTMS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM MLVLS. EXPECT
LOW TOP CONVC TO WANE QUICKLY AFT SUNSET IN WEAK FORCING. THE FCST
GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO SKY
AND TEMPS.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...A WEAK CONVG ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. NOT MUCH VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS MLVLS ARE TOO
WARM...BUT A FEW -SHRA CELLS ARE GENERATING ACROSS THE NC MTN RIDGES
AND THE FAR NRN FTHILLS. A BROAD SFC TROF WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE INTO
THE LOWER FTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. SFC/BASED CAPE VALUES PER RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE VERY LOW END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONG
ULVL RIDGING LIMITING ENHANCED/DEEP CONV. THUS...MOST CELLS THAT GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON/THUNDEROUS...WITH ISOL
SHORT/LIVED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC BNDRY REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD...BUT SOME LLVL MOISTURE WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...YET NOT ENUF FOR A CONFIDENT LOW CIG CONCERN. STRONG
ULVL HIGH WILL GENERATE A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN WEAK NE/LY FLOW AFT 12Z.

ELSEWHERE...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
PERHAPS AT KAVL BY DAYBREAK. LLVL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH ISOL -SHRA...WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT
IFR FG VSBY AS TEMPS REACH CROSSOVER LEVELS. KHKY MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
-SHRA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL WAIT TO TEMPO ON CURRENT CONVC TRENDS.
DRY CONDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AS A STRONG ULVL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE AND PIEDMONT SFC BNDRY GETS SHUNTED TO A NE A LITTLE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 282331
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
731 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...SFC TROF CONVG REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE NC MTNS
AND FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING AND -SHRA/TSTMS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM MLVLS. EXPECT
LOW TOP CONVC TO WANE QUICKLY AFT SUNSET IN WEAK FORCING. THE FCST
GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO SKY
AND TEMPS.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...A WEAK CONVG ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. NOT MUCH VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS MLVLS ARE TOO
WARM...BUT A FEW -SHRA CELLS ARE GENERATING ACROSS THE NC MTN RIDGES
AND THE FAR NRN FTHILLS. A BROAD SFC TROF WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE INTO
THE LOWER FTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. SFC/BASED CAPE VALUES PER RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE VERY LOW END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONG
ULVL RIDGING LIMITING ENHANCED/DEEP CONV. THUS...MOST CELLS THAT GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON/THUNDEROUS...WITH ISOL
SHORT/LIVED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC BNDRY REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD...BUT SOME LLVL MOISTURE WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...YET NOT ENUF FOR A CONFIDENT LOW CIG CONCERN. STRONG
ULVL HIGH WILL GENERATE A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN WEAK NE/LY FLOW AFT 12Z.

ELSEWHERE...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
PERHAPS AT KAVL BY DAYBREAK. LLVL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE
MTN VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH ISOL -SHRA...WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT
IFR FG VSBY AS TEMPS REACH CROSSOVER LEVELS. KHKY MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
-SHRA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL WAIT TO TEMPO ON CURRENT CONVC TRENDS.
DRY CONDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AS A STRONG ULVL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE AND PIEDMONT SFC BNDRY GETS SHUNTED TO A NE A LITTLE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 282033
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 PM EDT UPDATE...A WEAK CONVG ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. NOT MUCH VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS MLVLS ARE TOO
WARM...BUT A FEW -SHRA CELLS ARE GENERATING ACROSS THE NC MTN RIDGES
AND THE FAR NRN FTHILLS. A BROAD SFC TROF WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE INTO
THE LOWER FTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. SFC/BASED CAPE VALUES PER RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE VERY LOW END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONG
ULVL RIDGING LIMITING ENHANCED/DEEP CONV. THUS...MOST CELLS THAT GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON/THUNDEROUS...WITH ISOL
SHORT/LIVED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BUT SHOULD PREVAIL
SOUTHERLY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM. ANY DEEP CONVECTION
THIS AFTN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS...WELL N AND W OF THE
FIELD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY BACK WINDS TO NELY FOR FRI MRNG. THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW RESTRICTIVE STRATOCU TO FORM EARLY FRI
WHICH THE NAM AND ITS DERIVATIVES TRY TO BRING OVERHEAD AT OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SEEMS QUESTIONABLE BUT NOT UNBELIEVABLE...SO
WILL CARRY A FEW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AT THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
RIDGETOPS THIS AFTN BUT STAND ONLY A TINY CHANCE OF AFFECTING
KAVL...TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE VFR THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING NORTHERLY OVER THE NC SITES AND
SOUTHERLY SC. SOME MTN VALLEY FOG APPEARS LIKELY BUT WITH LOWER
CROSSOVER TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH MIXING THIS AFTN...AND ASSUMING
SOILS STAY DRY...I LIMITED KAVL TO IFR/CAT-B. KHKY MAY SEE SOME LOW
STRATOCU ADVECT IN FRI MRNG AS NOTED FOR KCLT ABOVE. WINDS NELY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT FRI WITH SELY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  84%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 282033
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 PM EDT UPDATE...A WEAK CONVG ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. NOT MUCH VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS MLVLS ARE TOO
WARM...BUT A FEW -SHRA CELLS ARE GENERATING ACROSS THE NC MTN RIDGES
AND THE FAR NRN FTHILLS. A BROAD SFC TROF WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING COVERAGE INTO
THE LOWER FTHILLS AND NC PIEDMONT. SFC/BASED CAPE VALUES PER RAP
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE VERY LOW END OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONG
ULVL RIDGING LIMITING ENHANCED/DEEP CONV. THUS...MOST CELLS THAT GET
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON/THUNDEROUS...WITH ISOL
SHORT/LIVED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BUT SHOULD PREVAIL
SOUTHERLY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM. ANY DEEP CONVECTION
THIS AFTN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS...WELL N AND W OF THE
FIELD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY BACK WINDS TO NELY FOR FRI MRNG. THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW RESTRICTIVE STRATOCU TO FORM EARLY FRI
WHICH THE NAM AND ITS DERIVATIVES TRY TO BRING OVERHEAD AT OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SEEMS QUESTIONABLE BUT NOT UNBELIEVABLE...SO
WILL CARRY A FEW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AT THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
RIDGETOPS THIS AFTN BUT STAND ONLY A TINY CHANCE OF AFFECTING
KAVL...TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE VFR THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING NORTHERLY OVER THE NC SITES AND
SOUTHERLY SC. SOME MTN VALLEY FOG APPEARS LIKELY BUT WITH LOWER
CROSSOVER TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH MIXING THIS AFTN...AND ASSUMING
SOILS STAY DRY...I LIMITED KAVL TO IFR/CAT-B. KHKY MAY SEE SOME LOW
STRATOCU ADVECT IN FRI MRNG AS NOTED FOR KCLT ABOVE. WINDS NELY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT FRI WITH SELY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  84%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 281844
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA
THOUGH RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED
ON LLVL WIND AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER
EAST TN INTO THE VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH
GREATER INSTABILITY THAN SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK
FORCING IS OCCURRING AS EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM
IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS FOCUS ON THE
RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE THE ONLY AREAS
THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS TO EXTEND
INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT ESPECIALLY
EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES.
NONETHELESS WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS
CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BUT SHOULD PREVAIL
SOUTHERLY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM. ANY DEEP CONVECTION
THIS AFTN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS...WELL N AND W OF THE
FIELD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY BACK WINDS TO NELY FOR FRI MRNG. THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW RESTRICTIVE STRATOCU TO FORM EARLY FRI
WHICH THE NAM AND ITS DERIVATIVES TRY TO BRING OVERHEAD AT OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SEEMS QUESTIONABLE BUT NOT UNBELIEVABLE...SO
WILL CARRY A FEW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AT THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
RIDGETOPS THIS AFTN BUT STAND ONLY A TINY CHANCE OF AFFECTING
KAVL...TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE VFR THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING NORTHERLY OVER THE NC SITES AND
SOUTHERLY SC. SOME MTN VALLEY FOG APPEARS LIKELY BUT WITH LOWER
CROSSOVER TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH MIXING THIS AFTN...AND ASSUMING
SOILS STAY DRY...I LIMITED KAVL TO IFR/CAT-B. KHKY MAY SEE SOME LOW
STRATOCU ADVECT IN FRI MRNG AS NOTED FOR KCLT ABOVE. WINDS NELY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT FRI WITH SELY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     MED   79%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 281844
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA
THOUGH RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED
ON LLVL WIND AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER
EAST TN INTO THE VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH
GREATER INSTABILITY THAN SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK
FORCING IS OCCURRING AS EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM
IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS FOCUS ON THE
RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE THE ONLY AREAS
THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS TO EXTEND
INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT ESPECIALLY
EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES.
NONETHELESS WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS
CLOSELY.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO NC TONIGHT...MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM...SO ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
EXHAUSTED THE FCST IS DRY. THE NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOW STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY CONCURRENT WITH ELY FLOW. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE
SCENARIO BUT IT PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU REMAIN
AFTER SUNSET. SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS MAY FORM ALONG IT ANYWAY. MTN
VALLEY FOG AGAIN IS A GOOD BET WITH CALM SFC CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

NAM SUGGESTS A WEDGELIKE MASS OF COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
WRN NC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THIS WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED AS
LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES BACK OVER.
UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SFC AIRMASS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY RESULTS FROM HEATING BUT ANY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT IT ANYWAY.
BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SO-CALLED WEDGE...AGAIN NORTH OF I-40. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UPPER DRYING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE TO POSE A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW VS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BUT SHOULD PREVAIL
SOUTHERLY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM. ANY DEEP CONVECTION
THIS AFTN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS...WELL N AND W OF THE
FIELD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY BACK WINDS TO NELY FOR FRI MRNG. THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW RESTRICTIVE STRATOCU TO FORM EARLY FRI
WHICH THE NAM AND ITS DERIVATIVES TRY TO BRING OVERHEAD AT OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SEEMS QUESTIONABLE BUT NOT UNBELIEVABLE...SO
WILL CARRY A FEW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AT THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
RIDGETOPS THIS AFTN BUT STAND ONLY A TINY CHANCE OF AFFECTING
KAVL...TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE VFR THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING NORTHERLY OVER THE NC SITES AND
SOUTHERLY SC. SOME MTN VALLEY FOG APPEARS LIKELY BUT WITH LOWER
CROSSOVER TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH MIXING THIS AFTN...AND ASSUMING
SOILS STAY DRY...I LIMITED KAVL TO IFR/CAT-B. KHKY MAY SEE SOME LOW
STRATOCU ADVECT IN FRI MRNG AS NOTED FOR KCLT ABOVE. WINDS NELY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT FRI WITH SELY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     MED   79%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 281808
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
208 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

MORE DETAILS TO COME SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BUT SHOULD PREVAIL
SOUTHERLY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM. ANY DEEP CONVECTION
THIS AFTN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS...WELL N AND W OF THE
FIELD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY BACK WINDS TO NELY FOR FRI MRNG. THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW RESTRICTIVE STRATOCU TO FORM EARLY FRI
WHICH THE NAM AND ITS DERIVATIVES TRY TO BRING OVERHEAD AT OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SEEMS QUESTIONABLE BUT NOT UNBELIEVABLE...SO
WILL CARRY A FEW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AT THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
RIDGETOPS THIS AFTN BUT STAND ONLY A TINY CHANCE OF AFFECTING
KAVL...TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE VFR THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING NORTHERLY OVER THE NC SITES AND
SOUTHERLY SC. SOME MTN VALLEY FOG APPEARS LIKELY BUT WITH LOWER
CROSSOVER TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH MIXING THIS AFTN...AND ASSUMING
SOILS STAY DRY...I LIMITED KAVL TO IFR/CAT-B. KHKY MAY SEE SOME LOW
STRATOCU ADVECT IN FRI MRNG AS NOTED FOR KCLT ABOVE. WINDS NELY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT FRI WITH SELY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     MED   79%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 281808
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
208 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH
RIDGETOPS ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP DUE TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT...THOUGH BASED ON LLVL WIND
AND THERMAL FIELDS IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM UPPER EAST TN INTO THE
VA PIEDMONT...JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN AN AREA OF MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
SHOWN FURTHER EAST. NONETHELESS SOME WEAK FORCING IS OCCURRING AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CU FIELD SEEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LLVL PROGS STILL
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SWD INTO NC
TONIGHT. SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN SFC HEATING WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE FOR ANY PRECIP TO FORM IN OUR ZONES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS FOCUS ON THE RIDGETOPS...WHICH WITH MINIMAL STEERING FLOW ARE
THE ONLY AREAS THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS QPF. DID ALLOW SOME ISOLD POPS
TO EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. NOT
ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES OF ONLY
500-700...AND UPDRAFTS LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS
WE ARE STILL IN THE 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER MONITOR ANY DEVELOPING CELLS CLOSELY.

MORE DETAILS TO COME SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SE STATES THEROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.
ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE GFS BRINGS SOME VORT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD
ASSOCIATED ORIGINALLY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND DPVA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON SUNDAY
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PW`S AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SAT...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMO ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ON MONDAY...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AS A NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BULK OF GULF INFLOW TO THE WEST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS ON TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF RELAXES...WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY FORM THE NW. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORM
THE SOUTH....FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHERLY MOIST INFLOW DECREASES TOWARD MID WEEK....FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BUT SHOULD PREVAIL
SOUTHERLY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM. ANY DEEP CONVECTION
THIS AFTN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS...WELL N AND W OF THE
FIELD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY BACK WINDS TO NELY FOR FRI MRNG. THE EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW RESTRICTIVE STRATOCU TO FORM EARLY FRI
WHICH THE NAM AND ITS DERIVATIVES TRY TO BRING OVERHEAD AT OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SEEMS QUESTIONABLE BUT NOT UNBELIEVABLE...SO
WILL CARRY A FEW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AT THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
RIDGETOPS THIS AFTN BUT STAND ONLY A TINY CHANCE OF AFFECTING
KAVL...TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE VFR THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING NORTHERLY OVER THE NC SITES AND
SOUTHERLY SC. SOME MTN VALLEY FOG APPEARS LIKELY BUT WITH LOWER
CROSSOVER TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH MIXING THIS AFTN...AND ASSUMING
SOILS STAY DRY...I LIMITED KAVL TO IFR/CAT-B. KHKY MAY SEE SOME LOW
STRATOCU ADVECT IN FRI MRNG AS NOTED FOR KCLT ABOVE. WINDS NELY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT FRI WITH SELY ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     MED   79%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 281421
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1021 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACRS THE CWFA EXCEPT WHERE FOG
LINGERS IN THE LITTLE TENN VALLEY. THIS IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING ATTM.
STRATUS PERSISTS OVER ERN KY AND WV ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT. SAID FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO
PICK OUT ON PROGGED THERMAL FIELDS AS DIURNAL HEATING RAMPS UP
TODAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA.
SPC MESOANALYSIS DOES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACRS
THE MTNS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NW NC...MORE OR LESS NORTH OF I-40.
PROFILES DO APPEAR TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY CAPPED EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT COLD AIR WORKING IN WITH THE FRONT MIGHT ELIMINATE
THAT. LATEST CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING ALL THAT MUCH QPF
WITH THE SETUP. BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY BUT CERTAINLY THINK
ISOLD-SCT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE. DCAPE STILL SHOWN TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A MINOR STRONG-SEVERE WIND THREAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
ANY STORMS WHICH ARE ABLE TO FIRE OVER THE SRN MTNS.

AS OF 330 AM...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT NW TO CALM WINDS THIS
MORNING. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-40
CORRIDOR BY MID DAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATES THAT MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES. PLAIN VIEW
OF THE NAM SHOWS A BAND OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE NEAR THE SFC
BOUNDARY. AT H5...HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 590 DM...SOURCED FROM A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA LINE. THE LACK OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...DURING THE PRIME DIURNAL HOURS. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE RIDGES...WITH A BAND OF SCHC WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR. NAM INDICATES THAT DCAPES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG
DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NC ZONES. SPC DY1
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS THE NC ZONES WITH A FIVE PERCENT CHC FOR DAMAGING
CONVECTIVE WINDS. THE HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS AND LIGHTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS INDICATES
THAT H85 TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20C THIS AFTERNOON. MILD LLVL
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD PUSH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN WED. I WILL FORECAST U80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO GENERALLY
LOW 90S EAST OF THE MTNS.

NEAR TERM MODELS SHOW MID AND LLVL RIDGING INCREASING GRADUALLY
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY
DRIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. I WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS ACROSS THE
NRN NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L60 WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS TO U60S EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO
MID-SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE WHAT IS
LEFT OF A WEAK BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS. AS
THIS HAPPENS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BERMUDA HIGH TO GAIN
CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO
THE EARLIER PLAN FOR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL REMNANTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK THE I-40 CORRIDOR COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IF THE NAM IS CORRECT WITH SOME EASTERLY
FLOW. THE MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE GULF ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND NC
MOUNTAINS FIRST...THEN SPREADING UP FROM THE SW ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING SATURDAY
NIGHT...STORM CHANCES LOOK BEST ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS
SUPPORTIVE AS IT WAS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL SHOWS SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING PEAK HEATING AS A JET STREAK
PASSES TO THE NW. THE GFS AND ECMWF RESPOND NICELY TO THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...SO THINK THE POP CAN BE BUMPED UP A
BIT MORE FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDING AT ACROSS THE SRN TIER
OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL KEEP THE
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WE RETAIN
ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE COURTESY OF THE ELONGATED BERMUDA HIGH. THE
MAIN QUESTION BY MID-WEEK IS WHETHER OR NOT A SURFACE FRONT WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NW ON WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE MUCH OF A PUSH ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY SO IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL
THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER S THAN THE FCST AREA. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WITH
LESS OF A DIURNAL TENDENCY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. BY MID MORNING...LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK FROM
THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW SHRA OR
TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO
MENTION AT KHKY OR KCLT.

AT KAVL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG
NEAR KAVL BEFORE 13Z. I WILL USE A TEMPO FROM 12Z-13Z TO HIGHLIGHT
SCT LIFR CLOUDS AND 6SM BR. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNLIMITED WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE RIDGES. IF RAIN
OCCURS AT THE TERMINAL...FOG WILL BE HIGHLY LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...I
WILL INDICATE MVFR BR FROM 9Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED/WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 281421
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1021 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACRS THE CWFA EXCEPT WHERE FOG
LINGERS IN THE LITTLE TENN VALLEY. THIS IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING ATTM.
STRATUS PERSISTS OVER ERN KY AND WV ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT. SAID FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO
PICK OUT ON PROGGED THERMAL FIELDS AS DIURNAL HEATING RAMPS UP
TODAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA.
SPC MESOANALYSIS DOES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACRS
THE MTNS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NW NC...MORE OR LESS NORTH OF I-40.
PROFILES DO APPEAR TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY CAPPED EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT COLD AIR WORKING IN WITH THE FRONT MIGHT ELIMINATE
THAT. LATEST CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING ALL THAT MUCH QPF
WITH THE SETUP. BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY BUT CERTAINLY THINK
ISOLD-SCT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE. DCAPE STILL SHOWN TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A MINOR STRONG-SEVERE WIND THREAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
ANY STORMS WHICH ARE ABLE TO FIRE OVER THE SRN MTNS.

AS OF 330 AM...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT NW TO CALM WINDS THIS
MORNING. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-40
CORRIDOR BY MID DAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATES THAT MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES. PLAIN VIEW
OF THE NAM SHOWS A BAND OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE NEAR THE SFC
BOUNDARY. AT H5...HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 590 DM...SOURCED FROM A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA LINE. THE LACK OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...DURING THE PRIME DIURNAL HOURS. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE RIDGES...WITH A BAND OF SCHC WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR. NAM INDICATES THAT DCAPES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG
DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NC ZONES. SPC DY1
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS THE NC ZONES WITH A FIVE PERCENT CHC FOR DAMAGING
CONVECTIVE WINDS. THE HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS AND LIGHTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS INDICATES
THAT H85 TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20C THIS AFTERNOON. MILD LLVL
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD PUSH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN WED. I WILL FORECAST U80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO GENERALLY
LOW 90S EAST OF THE MTNS.

NEAR TERM MODELS SHOW MID AND LLVL RIDGING INCREASING GRADUALLY
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY
DRIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. I WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS ACROSS THE
NRN NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L60 WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS TO U60S EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO
MID-SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE WHAT IS
LEFT OF A WEAK BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS. AS
THIS HAPPENS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BERMUDA HIGH TO GAIN
CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO
THE EARLIER PLAN FOR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL REMNANTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK THE I-40 CORRIDOR COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IF THE NAM IS CORRECT WITH SOME EASTERLY
FLOW. THE MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE GULF ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND NC
MOUNTAINS FIRST...THEN SPREADING UP FROM THE SW ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING SATURDAY
NIGHT...STORM CHANCES LOOK BEST ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS
SUPPORTIVE AS IT WAS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL SHOWS SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING PEAK HEATING AS A JET STREAK
PASSES TO THE NW. THE GFS AND ECMWF RESPOND NICELY TO THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...SO THINK THE POP CAN BE BUMPED UP A
BIT MORE FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDING AT ACROSS THE SRN TIER
OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL KEEP THE
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WE RETAIN
ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE COURTESY OF THE ELONGATED BERMUDA HIGH. THE
MAIN QUESTION BY MID-WEEK IS WHETHER OR NOT A SURFACE FRONT WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NW ON WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE MUCH OF A PUSH ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY SO IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL
THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER S THAN THE FCST AREA. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WITH
LESS OF A DIURNAL TENDENCY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. BY MID MORNING...LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK FROM
THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW SHRA OR
TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO
MENTION AT KHKY OR KCLT.

AT KAVL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG
NEAR KAVL BEFORE 13Z. I WILL USE A TEMPO FROM 12Z-13Z TO HIGHLIGHT
SCT LIFR CLOUDS AND 6SM BR. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNLIMITED WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE RIDGES. IF RAIN
OCCURS AT THE TERMINAL...FOG WILL BE HIGHLY LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...I
WILL INDICATE MVFR BR FROM 9Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED/WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 281047
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO REDUCE THE MENTION OF
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
EXTREME WESTERN NC MTN VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 330 AM...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT NW TO CALM WINDS THIS
MORNING. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-40
CORRIDOR BY MID DAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATES THAT MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES. PLAIN VIEW
OF THE NAM SHOWS A BAND OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE NEAR THE SFC
BOUNDARY. AT H5...HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 590 DM...SOURCED FROM A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA LINE. THE LACK OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...DURING THE PRIME DIURNAL HOURS. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE RIDGES...WITH A BAND OF SCHC WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR. NAM INDICATES THAT DCAPES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG
DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NC ZONES. SPC DY1
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS THE NC ZONES WITH A FIVE PERCENT CHC FOR DAMAGING
CONVECTIVE WINDS. THE HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS AND LIGHTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS INDICATES
THAT H85 TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20C THIS AFTERNOON. MILD LLVL
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD PUSH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN WED. I WILL FORECAST U80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO GENERALLY
LOW 90S EAST OF THE MTNS.

NEAR TERM MODELS SHOW MID AND LLVL RIDGING INCREASING GRADUALLY
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY
DRIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. I WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN
NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L60 WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO U60S
EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO
MID-SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE WHAT IS
LEFT OF A WEAK BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS. AS
THIS HAPPENS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BERMUDA HIGH TO GAIN
CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO
THE EARLIER PLAN FOR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL REMNANTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK THE I-40 CORRIDOR COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IF THE NAM IS CORRECT WITH SOME EASTERLY
FLOW. THE MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE GULF ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND NC
MOUNTAINS FIRST...THEN SPREADING UP FROM THE SW ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING SATURDAY
NIGHT...STORM CHANCES LOOK BEST ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS
SUPPORTIVE AS IT WAS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL SHOWS SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING PEAK HEATING AS A JET STREAK
PASSES TO THE NW. THE GFS AND ECMWF RESPOND NICELY TO THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...SO THINK THE POP CAN BE BUMPED UP A
BIT MORE FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDING AT ACROSS THE SRN TIER
OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL KEEP THE
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WE RETAIN
ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE COURTESY OF THE ELONGATED BERMUDA HIGH. THE
MAIN QUESTION BY MID-WEEK IS WHETHER OR NOT A SURFACE FRONT WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NW ON WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE MUCH OF A PUSH ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY SO IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL
THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER S THAN THE FCST AREA. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WITH
LESS OF A DIURNAL TENDENCY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...KAND MAY CONTINUE
TO SEE PERIODS OF LAKE SOURCED VLIFR STRATUS DRIFT OVER THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 14Z. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
VA/NC LINE BETWEEN 12Z-14Z...REMAINING ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. BY MID MORNING...LIGHT WINDS WILL
LIKELY BACK FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...A FEW SHRA OR TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS...COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT KHKY OR KCLT.

AT KAVL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG
NEAR KAVL BEFORE 13Z. I WILL USE A TEMPO FROM 12Z-13Z TO HIGHLIGHT
SCT LIFR CLOUDS AND 6SM BR. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNLIMITED WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE RIDGES. IF RAIN
OCCURS AT THE TERMINAL...FOG WILL BE HIGHLY LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...I
WILL INDICATE MVFR BR FROM 9Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 281047
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO REDUCE THE MENTION OF
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
EXTREME WESTERN NC MTN VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 330 AM...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT NW TO CALM WINDS THIS
MORNING. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-40
CORRIDOR BY MID DAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATES THAT MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES. PLAIN VIEW
OF THE NAM SHOWS A BAND OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE NEAR THE SFC
BOUNDARY. AT H5...HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 590 DM...SOURCED FROM A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA LINE. THE LACK OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...DURING THE PRIME DIURNAL HOURS. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE RIDGES...WITH A BAND OF SCHC WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR. NAM INDICATES THAT DCAPES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG
DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NC ZONES. SPC DY1
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS THE NC ZONES WITH A FIVE PERCENT CHC FOR DAMAGING
CONVECTIVE WINDS. THE HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS AND LIGHTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS INDICATES
THAT H85 TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20C THIS AFTERNOON. MILD LLVL
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD PUSH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN WED. I WILL FORECAST U80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO GENERALLY
LOW 90S EAST OF THE MTNS.

NEAR TERM MODELS SHOW MID AND LLVL RIDGING INCREASING GRADUALLY
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY
DRIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. I WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN
NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L60 WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO U60S
EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO
MID-SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE WHAT IS
LEFT OF A WEAK BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS. AS
THIS HAPPENS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BERMUDA HIGH TO GAIN
CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO
THE EARLIER PLAN FOR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL REMNANTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK THE I-40 CORRIDOR COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IF THE NAM IS CORRECT WITH SOME EASTERLY
FLOW. THE MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE GULF ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND NC
MOUNTAINS FIRST...THEN SPREADING UP FROM THE SW ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING SATURDAY
NIGHT...STORM CHANCES LOOK BEST ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS
SUPPORTIVE AS IT WAS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL SHOWS SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING PEAK HEATING AS A JET STREAK
PASSES TO THE NW. THE GFS AND ECMWF RESPOND NICELY TO THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...SO THINK THE POP CAN BE BUMPED UP A
BIT MORE FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDING AT ACROSS THE SRN TIER
OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL KEEP THE
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WE RETAIN
ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE COURTESY OF THE ELONGATED BERMUDA HIGH. THE
MAIN QUESTION BY MID-WEEK IS WHETHER OR NOT A SURFACE FRONT WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NW ON WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE MUCH OF A PUSH ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY SO IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL
THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER S THAN THE FCST AREA. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WITH
LESS OF A DIURNAL TENDENCY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...KAND MAY CONTINUE
TO SEE PERIODS OF LAKE SOURCED VLIFR STRATUS DRIFT OVER THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 14Z. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
VA/NC LINE BETWEEN 12Z-14Z...REMAINING ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. BY MID MORNING...LIGHT WINDS WILL
LIKELY BACK FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...A FEW SHRA OR TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS...COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT KHKY OR KCLT.

AT KAVL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG
NEAR KAVL BEFORE 13Z. I WILL USE A TEMPO FROM 12Z-13Z TO HIGHLIGHT
SCT LIFR CLOUDS AND 6SM BR. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNLIMITED WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE RIDGES. IF RAIN
OCCURS AT THE TERMINAL...FOG WILL BE HIGHLY LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...I
WILL INDICATE MVFR BR FROM 9Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED








000
FXUS62 KGSP 280732
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT NW TO CALM WINDS THIS
MORNING. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-40
CORRIDOR BY MID DAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATES THAT MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES. PLAIN VIEW
OF THE NAM SHOWS A BAND OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE NEAR THE SFC
BOUNDARY. AT H5...HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 590 DM...SOURCED FROM A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA LINE. THE LACK OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...DURING THE PRIME DIURNAL HOURS. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE RIDGES...WITH A BAND OF SCHC WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR. NAM INDICATES THAT DCAPES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG
DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NC ZONES. SPC DY1
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS THE NC ZONES WITH A FIVE PERCENT CHC FOR DAMAGING
CONVECTIVE WINDS. THE HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS AND LIGHTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS INDICATES
THAT H85 TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20C THIS AFTERNOON. MILD LLVL
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD PUSH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN WED. I WILL FORECAST U80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO GENERALLY
LOW 90S EAST OF THE MTNS.

NEAR TERM MODELS SHOW MID AND LLVL RIDGING INCREASING GRADUALLY
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY
DRIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. I WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN
NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L60 WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO U60S
EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO
MID-SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE WHAT IS
LEFT OF A WEAK BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS. AS
THIS HAPPENS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BERMUDA HIGH TO GAIN
CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO
THE EARLIER PLAN FOR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL REMNANTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK THE I-40 CORRIDOR COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IF THE NAM IS CORRECT WITH SOME EASTERLY
FLOW. THE MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE GULF ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND NC
MOUNTAINS FIRST...THEN SPREADING UP FROM THE SW ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING SATURDAY
NIGHT...STORM CHANCES LOOK BEST ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS
SUPPORTIVE AS IT WAS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL SHOWS SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING PEAK HEATING AS A JET STREAK
PASSES TO THE NW. THE GFS AND ECMWF RESPOND NICELY TO THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...SO THINK THE POP CAN BE BUMPED UP A
BIT MORE FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDING AT ACROSS THE SRN TIER
OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL KEEP THE
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WE RETAIN
ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE COURTESY OF THE ELONGATED BERMUDA HIGH. THE
MAIN QUESTION BY MID-WEEK IS WHETHER OR NOT A SURFACE FRONT WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NW ON WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE MUCH OF A PUSH ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY SO IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL
THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER S THAN THE FCST AREA. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WITH
LESS OF A DIURNAL TENDENCY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD. CALM TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE VA/NC LINE AROUND 12Z...REMAINING ALONG THE
I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. BY MID
MORNING...LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW SHRA OR TSRA MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT KHKY.

AT KAVL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RADIATIONAL FOG WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. BASED ON PERSISTENCE...I
WILL USE A TEMPO FROM 9Z-12Z TO HIGHLIGHT LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VIS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 1330Z.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 280732
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT NW TO CALM WINDS THIS
MORNING. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-40
CORRIDOR BY MID DAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATES THAT MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES. PLAIN VIEW
OF THE NAM SHOWS A BAND OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE NEAR THE SFC
BOUNDARY. AT H5...HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 590 DM...SOURCED FROM A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA LINE. THE LACK OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...DURING THE PRIME DIURNAL HOURS. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE RIDGES...WITH A BAND OF SCHC WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR. NAM INDICATES THAT DCAPES MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG
DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NC ZONES. SPC DY1
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS THE NC ZONES WITH A FIVE PERCENT CHC FOR DAMAGING
CONVECTIVE WINDS. THE HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS AND LIGHTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS INDICATES
THAT H85 TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20C THIS AFTERNOON. MILD LLVL
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD PUSH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN WED. I WILL FORECAST U80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO GENERALLY
LOW 90S EAST OF THE MTNS.

NEAR TERM MODELS SHOW MID AND LLVL RIDGING INCREASING GRADUALLY
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY
DRIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. I WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN
NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L60 WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO U60S
EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO
MID-SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE WHAT IS
LEFT OF A WEAK BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS. AS
THIS HAPPENS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BERMUDA HIGH TO GAIN
CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO
THE EARLIER PLAN FOR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL REMNANTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL THINK THE I-40 CORRIDOR COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON IF THE NAM IS CORRECT WITH SOME EASTERLY
FLOW. THE MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE GULF ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND NC
MOUNTAINS FIRST...THEN SPREADING UP FROM THE SW ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING SATURDAY
NIGHT...STORM CHANCES LOOK BEST ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS
SUPPORTIVE AS IT WAS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL SHOWS SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING PEAK HEATING AS A JET STREAK
PASSES TO THE NW. THE GFS AND ECMWF RESPOND NICELY TO THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...SO THINK THE POP CAN BE BUMPED UP A
BIT MORE FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDING AT ACROSS THE SRN TIER
OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL KEEP THE
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WE RETAIN
ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE COURTESY OF THE ELONGATED BERMUDA HIGH. THE
MAIN QUESTION BY MID-WEEK IS WHETHER OR NOT A SURFACE FRONT WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NW ON WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE MUCH OF A PUSH ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY SO IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL
THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER S THAN THE FCST AREA. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WITH
LESS OF A DIURNAL TENDENCY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD. CALM TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE VA/NC LINE AROUND 12Z...REMAINING ALONG THE
I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. BY MID
MORNING...LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW SHRA OR TSRA MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT KHKY.

AT KAVL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RADIATIONAL FOG WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. BASED ON PERSISTENCE...I
WILL USE A TEMPO FROM 9Z-12Z TO HIGHLIGHT LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VIS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 1330Z.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED








000
FXUS62 KGSP 280539
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
139 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 135 AM...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...I WILL CRAFT THE FORECAST TO INDICATE FOG BETWEEN
9Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FOG APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

EVENING UPDATE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SUPPORTED OVERNIGHT
AS AN ULVL RIDGE AXIS REMAIN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SFC WIND SPEEDS ARE
CALM ACROSS THE CWFA AND WITH A DECOUPLING DRY ATMOS...STRONG SFC
INVERSIONS WILL KEEP WINDS NIL THROUGH DAYBREAK. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY LOWER ENUF FOR
MORNING FG FORMATION...HOWEVER...LIMITED SFC MOISTURE WILL OFFSET A
WIDELY DENSE FG THREAT. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE FAR NRN ZONES WITH SOME STCU
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FCST.
HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE FCST CURVE MOST
LOCALES AND WERE ADJUSTED.

AS OF 200 PM...THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH
SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THANKS
TO WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN USUALLY DRY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PROMOTE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. IN THE WAKE OF
CRYSTOBAL MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. AN E-W NAM CROSS SECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE  850-700MB LAYER WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME PATCHY MID
CLOUDS BY SUNRISE THU IN THE EAST.

ON THU...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
THROUGH THE I-40 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY PROMOTING CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW...DO NOT THINK THAT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE THAN SCT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF
SCT/WDLY SCT POPS OVER FROM THE MOUNTAINS EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER TONIGHT AS TEMPS WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON TO LEVELS ABOVE YESTERDAY. THU WILL BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR THE SC AND GA...EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON GA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE IT WEAKENS TO THE WEST AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL ANS WESTERN PORTION OF THE NATION.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE OVER NC ON THURSDAY EVENING...SERVING AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPIATION...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL EXIST. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH
AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GULF OF MEXICO
OPENS UP AND MOISTURE INVADED THE GULF STATE.  BY SATURDAY MORNING
GULF MOISTURE REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...NEARLY
OVERSPREADING THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AS IS SHEAR. UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO MOUNTAIN TERRAIN WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED AS WELL...
HOWEVER THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO
NEAR NORMAL AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE CAROLINAS AND GA THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES. WEAKENING OF
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW AND EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
TO BRIDGE TOGETHER ON MONDAY. THIS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PROGRESSES AND WEAKENS FURTHER.

MOIST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY..SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION IN UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS IN TUESDAY...NEARLY
ENDING BY WEDNESDAY...AS WESTWARD BUILDING SURFACE RIDGING CLOSES
OFF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY...
CROSSING OUR AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LEAVE LITTLE OR NO GAP IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
THE GULF CLOSES OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER...FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD. CALM TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE VA/NC LINE AROUND 12Z...REMAINING ALONG THE
I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. BY MID
MORNING...LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW SHRA OR TSRA MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT KHKY.

AT KAVL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RADIATIONAL FOG WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. BASED ON PERSISTENCE...I
WILL USE A TEMPO FROM 9Z-12Z TO HIGHLIGHT LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VIS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 1330Z.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   79%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 280539
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
139 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 135 AM...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...I WILL CRAFT THE FORECAST TO INDICATE FOG BETWEEN
9Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FOG APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

EVENING UPDATE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SUPPORTED OVERNIGHT
AS AN ULVL RIDGE AXIS REMAIN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SFC WIND SPEEDS ARE
CALM ACROSS THE CWFA AND WITH A DECOUPLING DRY ATMOS...STRONG SFC
INVERSIONS WILL KEEP WINDS NIL THROUGH DAYBREAK. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY LOWER ENUF FOR
MORNING FG FORMATION...HOWEVER...LIMITED SFC MOISTURE WILL OFFSET A
WIDELY DENSE FG THREAT. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE FAR NRN ZONES WITH SOME STCU
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FCST.
HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE FCST CURVE MOST
LOCALES AND WERE ADJUSTED.

AS OF 200 PM...THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH
SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THANKS
TO WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN USUALLY DRY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PROMOTE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. IN THE WAKE OF
CRYSTOBAL MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. AN E-W NAM CROSS SECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE  850-700MB LAYER WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME PATCHY MID
CLOUDS BY SUNRISE THU IN THE EAST.

ON THU...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
THROUGH THE I-40 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY PROMOTING CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW...DO NOT THINK THAT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE THAN SCT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF
SCT/WDLY SCT POPS OVER FROM THE MOUNTAINS EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER TONIGHT AS TEMPS WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON TO LEVELS ABOVE YESTERDAY. THU WILL BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR THE SC AND GA...EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON GA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE IT WEAKENS TO THE WEST AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL ANS WESTERN PORTION OF THE NATION.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE OVER NC ON THURSDAY EVENING...SERVING AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPIATION...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL EXIST. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH
AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GULF OF MEXICO
OPENS UP AND MOISTURE INVADED THE GULF STATE.  BY SATURDAY MORNING
GULF MOISTURE REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...NEARLY
OVERSPREADING THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AS IS SHEAR. UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO MOUNTAIN TERRAIN WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED AS WELL...
HOWEVER THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO
NEAR NORMAL AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE CAROLINAS AND GA THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES. WEAKENING OF
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW AND EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
TO BRIDGE TOGETHER ON MONDAY. THIS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PROGRESSES AND WEAKENS FURTHER.

MOIST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY..SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION IN UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS IN TUESDAY...NEARLY
ENDING BY WEDNESDAY...AS WESTWARD BUILDING SURFACE RIDGING CLOSES
OFF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY...
CROSSING OUR AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LEAVE LITTLE OR NO GAP IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
THE GULF CLOSES OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER...FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD. CALM TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE VA/NC LINE AROUND 12Z...REMAINING ALONG THE
I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. BY MID
MORNING...LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW SHRA OR TSRA MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT KHKY.

AT KAVL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RADIATIONAL FOG WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. BASED ON PERSISTENCE...I
WILL USE A TEMPO FROM 9Z-12Z TO HIGHLIGHT LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VIS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 1330Z.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   79%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...NED








000
FXUS62 KGSP 280220
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SUPPORTED OVERNIGHT
AS AN ULVL RIDGE AXIS REMAIN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SFC WIND SPEEDS ARE
CALM ACROSS THE CWFA AND WITH A DECOUPLING DRY ATMOS...STRONG SFC
INVERSIONS WILL KEEP WINDS NIL THROUGH DAYBREAK. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY LOWER ENUF FOR
MORNING FG FORMATION...HOWEVER...LIMITED SFC MOISTURE WILL OFFSET A
WIDELY DENSE FG THREAT. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE FAR NRN ZONES WITH SOME STCU
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FCST.
HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE FCST CURVE MOST
LOCALES AND WERE ADJUSTED.

AS OF 200 PM...THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH
SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THANKS
TO WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN USUALLY DRY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PROMOTE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. IN THE WAKE OF
CRYSTOBAL MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. AN E-W NAM CROSS SECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE  850-700MB LAYER WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME PATCHY MID
CLOUDS BY SUNRISE THU IN THE EAST.

ON THU...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
THROUGH THE I-40 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY PROMTIONG CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW...DO NOT THINK THAT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE THAN SCT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF
SCT/WDLY SCT POPS OVER FROM THE MOUNTAINS EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER TONIGHT AS TEMPS WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON TO LEVELS ABOVE YESTERDAY. THU WILL BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR THE SC AND GA...EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON GA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE IT WEAKENS TO THE WEST AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL ANS WESTERN PORTION OF THE NATION.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE OVER NC ON THURSDAY EVENING...SERVING AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPIATION...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL EXIST. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH
AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GULF OF MEXICO
OPENS UP AND MOISTURE INVADED THE GULF STATE.  BY SATURDAY MORNING
GULF MOISTURE REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...NEARLY
OVERSPREADING THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AS IS SHEAR. UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO MOUNTAIN TERRAIN WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED AS WELL...
HOWEVER THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO
NEAR NORMAL AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE CAROLINAS AND GA THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES. WEAKENING OF
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW AND EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
TO BRIDGE TOGETHER ON MONDAY. THIS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PROGRESSES AND WEAKENS FURTHER.

MOIST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY..SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION IN UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS IN TUESDAY...NEARLY
ENDING BY WEDNESDAY...AS WESTWARD BUILDING SURFACE RIDGING CLOSES
OFF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY...
CROSSING OUR AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LEAVE LITTLE OR NO GAP IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
THE GULF CLOSES OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER...FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND AIRFIELDS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND ALLOW
ONLY PASSING CI THROUGH MID DAY THU. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER THU AFTERNOON AT KHKY...BUT -SHRA AND TSTMS
WILL BE TOO ISOL FOR TAF MENTION.

AT KAVL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW RAD COOLING VALLEY
FOG OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/CIGS DURING THE 10Z-14Z
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 272332
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
732 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FCST. HR/LY
TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE FCST CURVE MOST LOCALES AND
WERE ADJUSTED.

AS OF 200 PM...THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH
SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THANKS
TO WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN USUALLY DRY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PROMOTE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. IN THE WAKE OF
CRYSTOBAL MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. AN E-W NAM CROSS SECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE  850-700MB LAYER WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME PATCHY MID
CLOUDS BY SUNRISE THU IN THE EAST.

ON THU...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
THROUGH THE I-40 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY PROMTIONG CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW...DO NOT THINK THAT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE THAN SCT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF
SCT/WDLY SCT POPS OVER FROM THE MOUNTAINS EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER TONIGHT AS TEMPS WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON TO LEVELS ABOVE YESTERDAY. THU WILL BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR THE SC AND GA...EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON GA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE IT WEAKENS TO THE WEST AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL ANS WESTERN PORTION OF THE NATION.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE OVER NC ON THURSDAY EVENING...SERVING AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPIATION...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL EXIST. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH
AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GULF OF MEXICO
OPENS UP AND MOISTURE INVADED THE GULF STATE.  BY SATURDAY MORNING
GULF MOISTURE REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...NEARLY
OVERSPREADING THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AS IS SHEAR. UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO MOUNTAIN TERRAIN WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED AS WELL...
HOWEVER THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO
NEAR NORMAL AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE CAROLINAS AND GA THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES. WEAKENING OF
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW AND EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
TO BRIDGE TOGETHER ON MONDAY. THIS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PROGRESSES AND WEAKENS FURTHER.

MOIST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY..SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION IN UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS IN TUESDAY...NEARLY
ENDING BY WEDNESDAY...AS WESTWARD BUILDING SURFACE RIDGING CLOSES
OFF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY...
CROSSING OUR AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LEAVE LITTLE OR NO GAP IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
THE GULF CLOSES OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER...FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND AIRFIELDS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND ALLOW
ONLY PASSING CI THROUGH MID DAY THU. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER THU AFTERNOON AT KHKY...BUT -SHRA AND TSTMS
WILL BE TOO ISOL FOR TAF MENTION.

AT KAVL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW RAD COOLING VALLEY
FOG OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/CIGS DURING THE 10Z-14Z
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 272332
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
732 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FCST. HR/LY
TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE FCST CURVE MOST LOCALES AND
WERE ADJUSTED.

AS OF 200 PM...THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH
SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THANKS
TO WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN USUALLY DRY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PROMOTE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. IN THE WAKE OF
CRYSTOBAL MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. AN E-W NAM CROSS SECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE  850-700MB LAYER WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME PATCHY MID
CLOUDS BY SUNRISE THU IN THE EAST.

ON THU...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
THROUGH THE I-40 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY PROMTIONG CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW...DO NOT THINK THAT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE THAN SCT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF
SCT/WDLY SCT POPS OVER FROM THE MOUNTAINS EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER TONIGHT AS TEMPS WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON TO LEVELS ABOVE YESTERDAY. THU WILL BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR THE SC AND GA...EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON GA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE IT WEAKENS TO THE WEST AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL ANS WESTERN PORTION OF THE NATION.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE OVER NC ON THURSDAY EVENING...SERVING AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPIATION...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL EXIST. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH
AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GULF OF MEXICO
OPENS UP AND MOISTURE INVADED THE GULF STATE.  BY SATURDAY MORNING
GULF MOISTURE REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...NEARLY
OVERSPREADING THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AS IS SHEAR. UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO MOUNTAIN TERRAIN WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED AS WELL...
HOWEVER THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO
NEAR NORMAL AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE CAROLINAS AND GA THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES. WEAKENING OF
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW AND EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
TO BRIDGE TOGETHER ON MONDAY. THIS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PROGRESSES AND WEAKENS FURTHER.

MOIST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY..SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION IN UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS IN TUESDAY...NEARLY
ENDING BY WEDNESDAY...AS WESTWARD BUILDING SURFACE RIDGING CLOSES
OFF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY...
CROSSING OUR AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LEAVE LITTLE OR NO GAP IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
THE GULF CLOSES OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER...FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND AIRFIELDS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND ALLOW
ONLY PASSING CI THROUGH MID DAY THU. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER THU AFTERNOON AT KHKY...BUT -SHRA AND TSTMS
WILL BE TOO ISOL FOR TAF MENTION.

AT KAVL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW RAD COOLING VALLEY
FOG OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/CIGS DURING THE 10Z-14Z
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD
TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 271806
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH
SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THANKS
TO WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN USUALLY DRY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PROMOTE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. IN THE WAKE OF
CRYSTOBAL MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. AN E-W NAM CROSS SECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE  850-700MB LAYER WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME PATCHY MID
CLOUDS BY SUNRISE THU IN THE EAST.

ON THU...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
THROUGH THE I-40 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY PROMTIONG CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW...DO NOT THINK THAT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE THAN SCT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF
SCT/WDLY SCT POPS OVER FROM THE MOUNTAINS EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER TONIGHT AS TEMPS WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON TO LEVELS ABOVE YESTERDAY. THU WILL BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR THE SC AND GA...EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON GA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE IT WEAKENS TO THE WEST AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL ANS WESTERN PORTION OF THE NATION.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE OVER NC ON THURSDAY EVENING...SERVING AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPIATION...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL EXIST. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH
AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GULF OF MEXICO
OPENS UP AND MOISTURE INVADED THE GULF STATE.  BY SATURDAY MORNING
GULF MOISTURE REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...NEARLY
OVERSPREADING THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AS IS SHEAR. UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO MOUNTAIN TERRAIN WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED AS WELL...
HOWEVER THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO
NEAR NORMAL AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE CAROLINAS AND GA THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES. WEAKENING OF
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW AND EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
TO BRIDGE TOGETHER ON MONDAY. THIS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PROGRESSES AND WEAKENS FURTHER.

MOIST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY..SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION IN UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS IN TUESDAY...NEARLY
ENDING BY WEDNESDAY...AS WESTWARD BUILDING SURFACE RIDGING CLOSES
OFF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY...
CROSSING OUR AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LEAVE LITTLE OR NO GAP IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
THE GULF CLOSES OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER...FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND AIRFIELDS EAST OF THE MTNS...EXPECT CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS FOR VSBY AND SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A GENERALLY N-NW WIND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BECOMING CALM DURING THE
NIGHT.

AT KAVL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG IN THE
10Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCT MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS THUSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL
MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 271806
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH
TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH
SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THANKS
TO WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN USUALLY DRY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PROMOTE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. IN THE WAKE OF
CRYSTOBAL MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. AN E-W NAM CROSS SECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE  850-700MB LAYER WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME PATCHY MID
CLOUDS BY SUNRISE THU IN THE EAST.

ON THU...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
THROUGH THE I-40 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY PROMTIONG CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW...DO NOT THINK THAT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE THAN SCT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF
SCT/WDLY SCT POPS OVER FROM THE MOUNTAINS EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER TONIGHT AS TEMPS WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON TO LEVELS ABOVE YESTERDAY. THU WILL BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY EVENING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR THE SC AND GA...EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON GA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE IT WEAKENS TO THE WEST AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL ANS WESTERN PORTION OF THE NATION.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE OVER NC ON THURSDAY EVENING...SERVING AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPIATION...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL EXIST. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH
AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GULF OF MEXICO
OPENS UP AND MOISTURE INVADED THE GULF STATE.  BY SATURDAY MORNING
GULF MOISTURE REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...NEARLY
OVERSPREADING THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA BY LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AS IS SHEAR. UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO MOUNTAIN TERRAIN WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED AS WELL...
HOWEVER THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO
NEAR NORMAL AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE CAROLINAS AND GA THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES. WEAKENING OF
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW AND EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
TO BRIDGE TOGETHER ON MONDAY. THIS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PROGRESSES AND WEAKENS FURTHER.

MOIST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY..SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION IN UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE. GULF INFLOW WEAKENS IN TUESDAY...NEARLY
ENDING BY WEDNESDAY...AS WESTWARD BUILDING SURFACE RIDGING CLOSES
OFF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY...
CROSSING OUR AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LEAVE LITTLE OR NO GAP IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
THE GULF CLOSES OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER...FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND AIRFIELDS EAST OF THE MTNS...EXPECT CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS FOR VSBY AND SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A GENERALLY N-NW WIND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BECOMING CALM DURING THE
NIGHT.

AT KAVL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG IN THE
10Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCT MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS THUSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL
MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 271728
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
128 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
BERMUDA HIGH REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM...VSBL SAT PIC SHOWS GENLY SKC...EXCEPT SOME CU OVER
THE SW MOUNTAINS. CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONY MINOR
TWEAKS FOR TRENDS.

AS OF 640 AM...KAVL HAS SEEN DENSE FOG SETTLE IN OVER THE PAST ONE
TO TWO HOURS. THE FOG SHOULD LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE...DISSIPATING BY
14Z. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOG MENTION. OVERALL...THE
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

AS OF 545 AM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF I-85 WILL BE INCREASED BY A HALF
DEGREE...BASED ON 6Z GUIDANCE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE CRISTOBAL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 21Z...GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS WILL
WARM FROM 16C TO 20C. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...AND MILD LLVL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...PW VALUES AS LOW AS A HALF INCH...NEARLY 2SD BELOW NORMAL.
THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL SUPPORT ZERO POPS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL ASSIST THE SOUTHWARD DRIVE OF A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...NAM IS A
LITTLE FASTER. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING AS
LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL VARIOUSLY
ACROSS THE AREA FROM I-40 TO THE VA BORDER ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN TIER OF ZONES...
AND THE NAM IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF THAT. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE
EXPANDED JUST A BIT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BASED ON NEIGHBORING FCSTS.
OTHERWISE...THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS WELL WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE RESPONSE WHILE REBUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COAST. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SUPPRESS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE RIDGETOPS. TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A BERMUDA HIGH
THAT WILL DO ITS PART BY BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THAT SHOULD FUEL MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY WHEN A JET STREAK
PASSING TO THE NW BRINGS A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION AND A SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO THE NE WILL PASS OVER THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE PRECIP PROBABILITY
WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...UNTIL THERE IS MORE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LESS UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND AIRFIELDS EAST OF THE MTNS...EXPECT CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS FOR VSBY AND SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A GENERALLY N-NW WIND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
5-10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BECOMING CALM DURING THE NIGHT.

AT KAVL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG IN THE
10Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCT MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS THUSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL
MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...LG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 271728
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
128 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
BERMUDA HIGH REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM...VSBL SAT PIC SHOWS GENLY SKC...EXCEPT SOME CU OVER
THE SW MOUNTAINS. CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONY MINOR
TWEAKS FOR TRENDS.

AS OF 640 AM...KAVL HAS SEEN DENSE FOG SETTLE IN OVER THE PAST ONE
TO TWO HOURS. THE FOG SHOULD LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE...DISSIPATING BY
14Z. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOG MENTION. OVERALL...THE
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

AS OF 545 AM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF I-85 WILL BE INCREASED BY A HALF
DEGREE...BASED ON 6Z GUIDANCE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE CRISTOBAL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 21Z...GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS WILL
WARM FROM 16C TO 20C. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...AND MILD LLVL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...PW VALUES AS LOW AS A HALF INCH...NEARLY 2SD BELOW NORMAL.
THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL SUPPORT ZERO POPS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL ASSIST THE SOUTHWARD DRIVE OF A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...NAM IS A
LITTLE FASTER. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING AS
LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL VARIOUSLY
ACROSS THE AREA FROM I-40 TO THE VA BORDER ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN TIER OF ZONES...
AND THE NAM IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF THAT. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE
EXPANDED JUST A BIT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BASED ON NEIGHBORING FCSTS.
OTHERWISE...THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS WELL WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE RESPONSE WHILE REBUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COAST. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SUPPRESS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE RIDGETOPS. TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A BERMUDA HIGH
THAT WILL DO ITS PART BY BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THAT SHOULD FUEL MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY WHEN A JET STREAK
PASSING TO THE NW BRINGS A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION AND A SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO THE NE WILL PASS OVER THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE PRECIP PROBABILITY
WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...UNTIL THERE IS MORE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LESS UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND AIRFIELDS EAST OF THE MTNS...EXPECT CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS FOR VSBY AND SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A GENERALLY N-NW WIND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
5-10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BECOMING CALM DURING THE NIGHT.

AT KAVL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG IN THE
10Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCT MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS THUSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL
MOISTEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...LG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 271633
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1233 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
BERMUDA HIGH REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...VSBL SAT PIC SHOWS GENLY SKC...EXCEPT SOME CU
OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS. CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS FOR TRENDS.

AS OF 640 AM...KAVL HAS SEEN DENSE FOG SETTLE IN OVER THE PAST ONE
TO TWO HOURS. THE FOG SHOULD LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE...DISSIPATING BY
14Z. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOG MENTION. OVERALL...THE
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

AS OF 545 AM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF I-85 WILL BE INCREASED BY A HALF
DEGREE...BASED ON 6Z GUIDANCE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE CRISTOBAL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 21Z...GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS WILL
WARM FROM 16C TO 20C. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...AND MILD LLVL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...PW VALUES AS LOW AS A HALF INCH...NEARLY 2SD BELOW NORMAL.
THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL SUPPORT ZERO POPS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL ASSIST THE SOUTHWARD DRIVE OF A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...NAM IS A
LITTLE FASTER. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING AS
LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL VARIOUSLY
ACROSS THE AREA FROM I-40 TO THE VA BORDER ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN TIER OF ZONES...
AND THE NAM IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF THAT. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE
EXPANDED JUST A BIT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BASED ON NEIGHBORING FCSTS.
OTHERWISE...THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS WELL WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE RESPONSE WHILE REBUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COAST. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SUPPRESS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE RIDGETOPS. TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A BERMUDA HIGH
THAT WILL DO ITS PART BY BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THAT SHOULD FUEL MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY WHEN A JET STREAK
PASSING TO THE NW BRINGS A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION AND A SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO THE NE WILL PASS OVER THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE PRECIP PROBABILITY
WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...UNTIL THERE IS MORE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LESS UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR VIS AND SKY. THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH CRISTOBAL OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WIND NNW-NNE DIRECTIONS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 5 KTS OR LESS...POSSIBLY CALM
DURING THE NIGHT.

AT KAVL...CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS HAS YIELDED PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. RECENT KAVL OBS
INDICATE WIDELY VARYING VIS AND CIG. I WILL HIGHLIGHT CONDITIONS
DOWN TO LIFR WITH THE INITIAL FM GROUP...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY 14Z. AFTER 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%     MED   66%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 271633
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1233 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
BERMUDA HIGH REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...VSBL SAT PIC SHOWS GENLY SKC...EXCEPT SOME CU
OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS. CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS FOR TRENDS.

AS OF 640 AM...KAVL HAS SEEN DENSE FOG SETTLE IN OVER THE PAST ONE
TO TWO HOURS. THE FOG SHOULD LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE...DISSIPATING BY
14Z. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOG MENTION. OVERALL...THE
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

AS OF 545 AM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF I-85 WILL BE INCREASED BY A HALF
DEGREE...BASED ON 6Z GUIDANCE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE CRISTOBAL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 21Z...GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS WILL
WARM FROM 16C TO 20C. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...AND MILD LLVL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...PW VALUES AS LOW AS A HALF INCH...NEARLY 2SD BELOW NORMAL.
THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL SUPPORT ZERO POPS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL ASSIST THE SOUTHWARD DRIVE OF A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...NAM IS A
LITTLE FASTER. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING AS
LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL VARIOUSLY
ACROSS THE AREA FROM I-40 TO THE VA BORDER ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN TIER OF ZONES...
AND THE NAM IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF THAT. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE
EXPANDED JUST A BIT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BASED ON NEIGHBORING FCSTS.
OTHERWISE...THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS WELL WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE RESPONSE WHILE REBUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COAST. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SUPPRESS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE RIDGETOPS. TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A BERMUDA HIGH
THAT WILL DO ITS PART BY BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THAT SHOULD FUEL MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY WHEN A JET STREAK
PASSING TO THE NW BRINGS A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION AND A SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO THE NE WILL PASS OVER THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE PRECIP PROBABILITY
WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...UNTIL THERE IS MORE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LESS UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR VIS AND SKY. THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH CRISTOBAL OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WIND NNW-NNE DIRECTIONS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 5 KTS OR LESS...POSSIBLY CALM
DURING THE NIGHT.

AT KAVL...CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS HAS YIELDED PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. RECENT KAVL OBS
INDICATE WIDELY VARYING VIS AND CIG. I WILL HIGHLIGHT CONDITIONS
DOWN TO LIFR WITH THE INITIAL FM GROUP...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY 14Z. AFTER 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%     MED   66%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED








000
FXUS62 KGSP 271329
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
BERMUDA HIGH REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...VSBL SAT PIC STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF FOG
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF FOG UNTIL LATE
MORNING AND INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE VALLEYS UNTIL THEN. OTHERWISE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE OTHER GRID FIELDS.

AS OF 640 AM...KAVL HAS SEEN DENSE FOG SETTLE IN OVER THE PAST ONE
TO TWO HOURS. THE FOG SHOULD LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE...DISSIPATING BY
14Z. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOG MENTION. OVERALL...THE
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

AS OF 545 AM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF I-85 WILL BE INCREASED BY A HALF
DEGREE...BASED ON 6Z GUIDANCE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE CRISTOBAL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 21Z...GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS WILL
WARM FROM 16C TO 20C. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...AND MILD LLVL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...PW VALUES AS LOW AS A HALF INCH...NEARLY 2SD BELOW NORMAL.
THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL SUPPORT ZERO POPS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL ASSIST THE SOUTHWARD DRIVE OF A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...NAM IS A
LITTLE FASTER. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING AS
LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL VARIOUSLY
ACROSS THE AREA FROM I-40 TO THE VA BORDER ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN TIER OF ZONES...
AND THE NAM IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF THAT. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE
EXPANDED JUST A BIT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BASED ON NEIGHBORING FCSTS.
OTHERWISE...THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS WELL WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE RESPONSE WHILE REBUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COAST. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SUPPRESS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE RIDGETOPS. TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A BERMUDA HIGH
THAT WILL DO ITS PART BY BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THAT SHOULD FUEL MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY WHEN A JET STREAK
PASSING TO THE NW BRINGS A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION AND A SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO THE NE WILL PASS OVER THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE PRECIP PROBABILITY
WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...UNTIL THERE IS MORE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LESS UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR VIS AND SKY. THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH CRISTOBAL OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WIND NNW-NNE DIRECTIONS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 5 KTS OR LESS...POSSIBLY CALM
DURING THE NIGHT.

AT KAVL...CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS HAS YIELDED PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. RECENT KAVL OBS
INDICATE WIDELY VARYING VIS AND CIG. I WILL HIGHLIGHT CONDITIONS
DOWN TO LIFR WITH THE INITIAL FM GROUP...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY 14Z. AFTER 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   65%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LG/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED








000
FXUS62 KGSP 271329
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
BERMUDA HIGH REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...VSBL SAT PIC STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF FOG
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF FOG UNTIL LATE
MORNING AND INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE VALLEYS UNTIL THEN. OTHERWISE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE OTHER GRID FIELDS.

AS OF 640 AM...KAVL HAS SEEN DENSE FOG SETTLE IN OVER THE PAST ONE
TO TWO HOURS. THE FOG SHOULD LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE...DISSIPATING BY
14Z. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOG MENTION. OVERALL...THE
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

AS OF 545 AM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF I-85 WILL BE INCREASED BY A HALF
DEGREE...BASED ON 6Z GUIDANCE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE CRISTOBAL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 21Z...GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS WILL
WARM FROM 16C TO 20C. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...AND MILD LLVL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...PW VALUES AS LOW AS A HALF INCH...NEARLY 2SD BELOW NORMAL.
THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL SUPPORT ZERO POPS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL ASSIST THE SOUTHWARD DRIVE OF A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...NAM IS A
LITTLE FASTER. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING AS
LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL VARIOUSLY
ACROSS THE AREA FROM I-40 TO THE VA BORDER ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN TIER OF ZONES...
AND THE NAM IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF THAT. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE
EXPANDED JUST A BIT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BASED ON NEIGHBORING FCSTS.
OTHERWISE...THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS WELL WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE RESPONSE WHILE REBUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COAST. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SUPPRESS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE RIDGETOPS. TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A BERMUDA HIGH
THAT WILL DO ITS PART BY BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THAT SHOULD FUEL MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY WHEN A JET STREAK
PASSING TO THE NW BRINGS A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION AND A SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO THE NE WILL PASS OVER THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE PRECIP PROBABILITY
WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...UNTIL THERE IS MORE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LESS UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR VIS AND SKY. THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH CRISTOBAL OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WIND NNW-NNE DIRECTIONS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 5 KTS OR LESS...POSSIBLY CALM
DURING THE NIGHT.

AT KAVL...CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS HAS YIELDED PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. RECENT KAVL OBS
INDICATE WIDELY VARYING VIS AND CIG. I WILL HIGHLIGHT CONDITIONS
DOWN TO LIFR WITH THE INITIAL FM GROUP...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY 14Z. AFTER 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   65%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...LG/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 271046
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
BERMUDA HIGH REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM...KAVL HAS SEEN DENSE FOG SETTLE IN OVER THE PAST ONE
TO TWO HOURS. THE FOG SHOULD LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE...DISSIPATING BY
14Z. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOG MENTION. OVERALL...THE
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

AS OF 545 AM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF I-85 WILL BE INCREASED BY A HALF
DEGREE...BASED ON 6Z GUIDANCE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE CRISTOBAL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 21Z...GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS WILL
WARM FROM 16C TO 20C. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...AND MILD LLVL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...PW VALUES AS LOW AS A HALF INCH...NEARLY 2SD BELOW NORMAL.
THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL SUPPORT ZERO POPS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL ASSIST THE SOUTHWARD DRIVE OF A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...NAM IS A
LITTLE FASTER. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING AS
LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL VARIOUSLY
ACROSS THE AREA FROM I-40 TO THE VA BORDER ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN TIER OF ZONES...
AND THE NAM IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF THAT. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE
EXPANDED JUST A BIT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BASED ON NEIGHBORING FCSTS.
OTHERWISE...THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS WELL WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE RESPONSE WHILE REBUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COAST. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SUPPRESS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE RIDGETOPS. TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A BERMUDA HIGH
THAT WILL DO ITS PART BY BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THAT SHOULD FUEL MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY WHEN A JET STREAK
PASSING TO THE NW BRINGS A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION AND A SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO THE NE WILL PASS OVER THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE PRECIP PROBABILITY
WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...UNTIL THERE IS MORE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LESS UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR VIS AND SKY. THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH CRISTOBAL OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WIND NNW-NNE DIRECTIONS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 5 KTS OR LESS...POSSIBLY CALM
DURING THE NIGHT.

AT KAVL...CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS HAS YIELDED PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. RECENT KAVL OBS
INDICATE WIDELY VARYING VIS AND CIG. I WILL HIGHLIGHT CONDITIONS
DOWN TO LIFR WITH THE INITIAL FM GROUP...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY 14Z. AFTER 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED








000
FXUS62 KGSP 271046
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
BERMUDA HIGH REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM...KAVL HAS SEEN DENSE FOG SETTLE IN OVER THE PAST ONE
TO TWO HOURS. THE FOG SHOULD LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE...DISSIPATING BY
14Z. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOG MENTION. OVERALL...THE
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

AS OF 545 AM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF I-85 WILL BE INCREASED BY A HALF
DEGREE...BASED ON 6Z GUIDANCE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE CRISTOBAL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 21Z...GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS WILL
WARM FROM 16C TO 20C. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...AND MILD LLVL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...PW VALUES AS LOW AS A HALF INCH...NEARLY 2SD BELOW NORMAL.
THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL SUPPORT ZERO POPS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL ASSIST THE SOUTHWARD DRIVE OF A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...NAM IS A
LITTLE FASTER. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING AS
LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL VARIOUSLY
ACROSS THE AREA FROM I-40 TO THE VA BORDER ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN TIER OF ZONES...
AND THE NAM IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF THAT. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE
EXPANDED JUST A BIT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BASED ON NEIGHBORING FCSTS.
OTHERWISE...THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS WELL WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE RESPONSE WHILE REBUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COAST. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SUPPRESS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE RIDGETOPS. TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A BERMUDA HIGH
THAT WILL DO ITS PART BY BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THAT SHOULD FUEL MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY WHEN A JET STREAK
PASSING TO THE NW BRINGS A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION AND A SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO THE NE WILL PASS OVER THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE PRECIP PROBABILITY
WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...UNTIL THERE IS MORE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LESS UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR VIS AND SKY. THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD...THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH CRISTOBAL OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WIND NNW-NNE DIRECTIONS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 5 KTS OR LESS...POSSIBLY CALM
DURING THE NIGHT.

AT KAVL...CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS HAS YIELDED PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. RECENT KAVL OBS
INDICATE WIDELY VARYING VIS AND CIG. I WILL HIGHLIGHT CONDITIONS
DOWN TO LIFR WITH THE INITIAL FM GROUP...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY 14Z. AFTER 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 270950
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
550 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
BERMUDA HIGH REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF I-85 WILL BE INCREASED BY A HALF
DEGREE...BASED ON 6Z GUIDANCE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE CRISTOBAL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 21Z...GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS WILL
WARM FROM 16C TO 20C. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...AND MILD LLVL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...PW VALUES AS LOW AS A HALF INCH...NEARLY 2SD BELOW NORMAL.
THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL SUPPORT ZERO POPS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL ASSIST THE SOUTHWARD DRIVE OF A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...NAM IS A
LITTLE FASTER. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING AS
LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL VARIOUSLY
ACROSS THE AREA FROM I-40 TO THE VA BORDER ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN TIER OF ZONES...
AND THE NAM IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF THAT. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE
EXPANDED JUST A BIT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BASED ON NEIGHBORING FCSTS.
OTHERWISE...THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS WELL WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE RESPONSE WHILE REBUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COAST. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SUPPRESS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE RIDGETOPS. TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A BERMUDA HIGH
THAT WILL DO ITS PART BY BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THAT SHOULD FUEL MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY WHEN A JET STREAK
PASSING TO THE NW BRINGS A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION AND A SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO THE NE WILL PASS OVER THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE PRECIP PROBABILITY
WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...UNTIL THERE IS MORE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LESS UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR VIS AND SKY. THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD...THE SFC
PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH CRISTOBAL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SFC
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WIND DIRECTIONS BETWEEN 310-010 DEGREES ACROSS
KCLT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 5 KTS OR LESS...POSSIBLY CALM DURING THE
NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...EAST OF THE MTNS...CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW CLT EXAMPLE.
MTN VALLEY AREAS...LATEST RUN OF MOS INDICATES A WEAK CASE FOR FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS TO CLOSE IN DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT LIFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO FROM
11Z-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED








000
FXUS62 KGSP 270950
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
550 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
BERMUDA HIGH REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF I-85 WILL BE INCREASED BY A HALF
DEGREE...BASED ON 6Z GUIDANCE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE CRISTOBAL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 21Z...GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS WILL
WARM FROM 16C TO 20C. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...AND MILD LLVL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...PW VALUES AS LOW AS A HALF INCH...NEARLY 2SD BELOW NORMAL.
THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL SUPPORT ZERO POPS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL ASSIST THE SOUTHWARD DRIVE OF A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...NAM IS A
LITTLE FASTER. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING AS
LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL VARIOUSLY
ACROSS THE AREA FROM I-40 TO THE VA BORDER ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN TIER OF ZONES...
AND THE NAM IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF THAT. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE
EXPANDED JUST A BIT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BASED ON NEIGHBORING FCSTS.
OTHERWISE...THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS WELL WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE RESPONSE WHILE REBUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COAST. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SUPPRESS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE RIDGETOPS. TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A BERMUDA HIGH
THAT WILL DO ITS PART BY BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THAT SHOULD FUEL MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY WHEN A JET STREAK
PASSING TO THE NW BRINGS A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION AND A SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO THE NE WILL PASS OVER THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE PRECIP PROBABILITY
WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...UNTIL THERE IS MORE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LESS UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR VIS AND SKY. THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD...THE SFC
PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH CRISTOBAL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SFC
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WIND DIRECTIONS BETWEEN 310-010 DEGREES ACROSS
KCLT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 5 KTS OR LESS...POSSIBLY CALM DURING THE
NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...EAST OF THE MTNS...CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW CLT EXAMPLE.
MTN VALLEY AREAS...LATEST RUN OF MOS INDICATES A WEAK CASE FOR FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS TO CLOSE IN DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT LIFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO FROM
11Z-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 270950
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
550 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
BERMUDA HIGH REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF I-85 WILL BE INCREASED BY A HALF
DEGREE...BASED ON 6Z GUIDANCE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE CRISTOBAL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 21Z...GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS WILL
WARM FROM 16C TO 20C. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...AND MILD LLVL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...PW VALUES AS LOW AS A HALF INCH...NEARLY 2SD BELOW NORMAL.
THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL SUPPORT ZERO POPS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL ASSIST THE SOUTHWARD DRIVE OF A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...NAM IS A
LITTLE FASTER. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING AS
LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL VARIOUSLY
ACROSS THE AREA FROM I-40 TO THE VA BORDER ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN TIER OF ZONES...
AND THE NAM IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF THAT. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE
EXPANDED JUST A BIT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BASED ON NEIGHBORING FCSTS.
OTHERWISE...THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS WELL WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE RESPONSE WHILE REBUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COAST. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SUPPRESS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE RIDGETOPS. TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A BERMUDA HIGH
THAT WILL DO ITS PART BY BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THAT SHOULD FUEL MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY WHEN A JET STREAK
PASSING TO THE NW BRINGS A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION AND A SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO THE NE WILL PASS OVER THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE PRECIP PROBABILITY
WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...UNTIL THERE IS MORE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LESS UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR VIS AND SKY. THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD...THE SFC
PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH CRISTOBAL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SFC
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WIND DIRECTIONS BETWEEN 310-010 DEGREES ACROSS
KCLT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 5 KTS OR LESS...POSSIBLY CALM DURING THE
NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...EAST OF THE MTNS...CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW CLT EXAMPLE.
MTN VALLEY AREAS...LATEST RUN OF MOS INDICATES A WEAK CASE FOR FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS TO CLOSE IN DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT LIFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO FROM
11Z-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED








000
FXUS62 KGSP 270950
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
550 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
BERMUDA HIGH REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM...I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE DENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF I-85 WILL BE INCREASED BY A HALF
DEGREE...BASED ON 6Z GUIDANCE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 320 AM...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE CRISTOBAL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 21Z...GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS WILL
WARM FROM 16C TO 20C. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...AND MILD LLVL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...PW VALUES AS LOW AS A HALF INCH...NEARLY 2SD BELOW NORMAL.
THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL SUPPORT ZERO POPS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL ASSIST THE SOUTHWARD DRIVE OF A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...NAM IS A
LITTLE FASTER. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING AS
LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL VARIOUSLY
ACROSS THE AREA FROM I-40 TO THE VA BORDER ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN TIER OF ZONES...
AND THE NAM IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF THAT. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE
EXPANDED JUST A BIT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BASED ON NEIGHBORING FCSTS.
OTHERWISE...THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS WELL WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE RESPONSE WHILE REBUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COAST. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SUPPRESS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE RIDGETOPS. TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A BERMUDA HIGH
THAT WILL DO ITS PART BY BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THAT SHOULD FUEL MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY WHEN A JET STREAK
PASSING TO THE NW BRINGS A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION AND A SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO THE NE WILL PASS OVER THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE PRECIP PROBABILITY
WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...UNTIL THERE IS MORE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LESS UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR VIS AND SKY. THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD...THE SFC
PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH CRISTOBAL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SFC
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WIND DIRECTIONS BETWEEN 310-010 DEGREES ACROSS
KCLT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 5 KTS OR LESS...POSSIBLY CALM DURING THE
NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...EAST OF THE MTNS...CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW CLT EXAMPLE.
MTN VALLEY AREAS...LATEST RUN OF MOS INDICATES A WEAK CASE FOR FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS TO CLOSE IN DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT LIFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO FROM
11Z-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 270741
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
341 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
BERMUDA HIGH REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE CRISTOBAL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 21Z...GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS WILL
WARM FROM 16C TO 20C. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...AND MILD LLVL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...PW VALUES AS LOW AS A HALF INCH...NEARLY 2SD BELOW NORMAL.
THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL SUPPORT ZERO POPS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL ASSIST THE SOUTHWARD DRIVE OF A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...NAM IS A
LITTLE FASTER. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING AS
LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL VARIOUSLY
ACROSS THE AREA FROM I-40 TO THE VA BORDER ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN TIER OF ZONES...
AND THE NAM IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF THAT. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE
EXPANDED JUST A BIT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BASED ON NEIGHBORING FCSTS.
OTHERWISE...THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS WELL WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE RESPONSE WHILE REBUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COAST. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SUPPRESS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE RIDGETOPS. TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A BERMUDA HIGH
THAT WILL DO ITS PART BY BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THAT SHOULD FUEL MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY WHEN A JET STREAK
PASSING TO THE NW BRINGS A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION AND A SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO THE NE WILL PASS OVER THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE PRECIP PROBABILITY
WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...UNTIL THERE IS MORE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LESS UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR VIS AND SKY. THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD...THE SFC
PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH CRISTOBAL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SFC
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WIND DIRECTIONS BETWEEN 310-010 DEGREES ACROSS
KCLT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 5 KTS OR LESS...POSSIBLY CALM DURING THE
NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...EAST OF THE MTNS...CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW CLT EXAMPLE.
MTN VALLEY AREAS...LATEST RUN OF MOS INDICATES A WEAK CASE FOR FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS TO CLOSE IN DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT LIFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO FROM
11Z-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 270741
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
341 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
BERMUDA HIGH REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE CRISTOBAL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 21Z...GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS WILL
WARM FROM 16C TO 20C. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...AND MILD LLVL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...PW VALUES AS LOW AS A HALF INCH...NEARLY 2SD BELOW NORMAL.
THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL SUPPORT ZERO POPS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL ASSIST THE SOUTHWARD DRIVE OF A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...NAM IS A
LITTLE FASTER. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING AS
LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL VARIOUSLY
ACROSS THE AREA FROM I-40 TO THE VA BORDER ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN TIER OF ZONES...
AND THE NAM IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF THAT. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE
EXPANDED JUST A BIT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BASED ON NEIGHBORING FCSTS.
OTHERWISE...THE MTNS SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS WELL WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE RESPONSE WHILE REBUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COAST. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SUPPRESS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE RIDGETOPS. TEMPS
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A BERMUDA HIGH
THAT WILL DO ITS PART BY BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THAT SHOULD FUEL MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY WHEN A JET STREAK
PASSING TO THE NW BRINGS A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION AND A SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO THE NE WILL PASS OVER THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE PRECIP PROBABILITY
WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...UNTIL THERE IS MORE RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LESS UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR VIS AND SKY. THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD...THE SFC
PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH CRISTOBAL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SFC
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WIND DIRECTIONS BETWEEN 310-010 DEGREES ACROSS
KCLT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 5 KTS OR LESS...POSSIBLY CALM DURING THE
NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...EAST OF THE MTNS...CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW CLT EXAMPLE.
MTN VALLEY AREAS...LATEST RUN OF MOS INDICATES A WEAK CASE FOR FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS TO CLOSE IN DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT LIFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO FROM
11Z-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED








000
FXUS62 KGSP 270604
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO MAKE SMALL CHANGES IN
NEAR TERM SKY AND TEMPS. IN ADDITION...I HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
DAWN FOG ACROSS THE UNIFOUR...DECREASED THE DENSITY OF FOG WITHIN
THE MTN VALLEYS.

AS OF 1025 PM EDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL STRATUS
HAS EXPANDED IN DEPTH/COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT.  THIS SKY COVER WAS EXPECTED HOWEVER HAS DEVELOPED A FEW
HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.  THUS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS
OVERNIGHT BY BLENDING IN LATEST NAM WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD READ
ON THE CURRENT SITUATION.  OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALL BUT
CALMED AT MOST SITES AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING OFF RATHER NICELY AMIDST MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AS MOST PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS SITES ARE ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR
TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL SYSTEM CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTH OFF THE EAST
COAST. DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA WIL
PERSIST...BUT WEAKEN. DUE TO THE MOTION OF CRISTOBAL...SURFACE
WINDS WILL BACK FORM NE TO N OVERNIGHT...INTRODUCING A LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE LIMITED MOISTURE NOW AROUND 900 MB LARGELY DIMINISHING BY
DAYBREAK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND SEVEN DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AND STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON THU...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS  HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH I-40 CORRIDOR INTO SRN VA ON BY LATE
THURSDAY. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AS CAPES INCREASE TO PERHAPS
1000J/KG OR MORE. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT WIDELY
SCT/SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE THU EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RE-ASSERTS ITSELF ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE A CATEGORY OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S.
THROUGH TUE BUT DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SATURDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW NC MOUNTAINS
AND NE GA MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SCT ELSEWHERE
ON SUNDAY. WILL ADVERTISE NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
BOTH MONDAY AND TUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SE
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR VIS AND SKY. THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD...THE SFC
PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH CRISTOBAL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SFC
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WIND DIRECTIONS BETWEEN 310-010 DEGREES ACROSS
KCLT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 5 KTS OR LESS...POSSIBLY CALM DURING THE
NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...EAST OF THE MTNS...CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW CLT EXAMPLE.
MTN VALLEY AREAS...LATEST RUN OF MOS INDICATES A WEAK CASE FOR FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS TO CLOSE IN DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT LIFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO FROM
11Z-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 270604
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO MAKE SMALL CHANGES IN
NEAR TERM SKY AND TEMPS. IN ADDITION...I HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
DAWN FOG ACROSS THE UNIFOUR...DECREASED THE DENSITY OF FOG WITHIN
THE MTN VALLEYS.

AS OF 1025 PM EDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL STRATUS
HAS EXPANDED IN DEPTH/COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT.  THIS SKY COVER WAS EXPECTED HOWEVER HAS DEVELOPED A FEW
HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.  THUS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS
OVERNIGHT BY BLENDING IN LATEST NAM WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD READ
ON THE CURRENT SITUATION.  OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALL BUT
CALMED AT MOST SITES AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING OFF RATHER NICELY AMIDST MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AS MOST PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS SITES ARE ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR
TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL SYSTEM CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTH OFF THE EAST
COAST. DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA WIL
PERSIST...BUT WEAKEN. DUE TO THE MOTION OF CRISTOBAL...SURFACE
WINDS WILL BACK FORM NE TO N OVERNIGHT...INTRODUCING A LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE LIMITED MOISTURE NOW AROUND 900 MB LARGELY DIMINISHING BY
DAYBREAK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND SEVEN DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AND STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON THU...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS  HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH I-40 CORRIDOR INTO SRN VA ON BY LATE
THURSDAY. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AS CAPES INCREASE TO PERHAPS
1000J/KG OR MORE. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT WIDELY
SCT/SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE THU EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RE-ASSERTS ITSELF ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE A CATEGORY OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S.
THROUGH TUE BUT DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SATURDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW NC MOUNTAINS
AND NE GA MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SCT ELSEWHERE
ON SUNDAY. WILL ADVERTISE NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
BOTH MONDAY AND TUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SE
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR VIS AND SKY. THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD...THE SFC
PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH CRISTOBAL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SFC
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WIND DIRECTIONS BETWEEN 310-010 DEGREES ACROSS
KCLT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 5 KTS OR LESS...POSSIBLY CALM DURING THE
NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...EAST OF THE MTNS...CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW CLT EXAMPLE.
MTN VALLEY AREAS...LATEST RUN OF MOS INDICATES A WEAK CASE FOR FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS TO CLOSE IN DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT LIFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO FROM
11Z-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTS WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...NED








000
FXUS62 KGSP 270225
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL STRATUS
HAS EXPANDED IN DEPTH/COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT.  THIS SKY COVER WAS EXPECTED HOWEVER HAS DEVELOPED A FEW
HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.  THUS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS
OVERNIGHT BY BLENDING IN LATEST NAM WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD READ
ON THE CURRENT SITUATION.  OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALL BUT
CALMED AT MOST SITES AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING OFF RATHER NICELY AMIDST MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AS MOST PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS SITES ARE ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR
TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL SYSTEM CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTH OFF THE EAST
COAST. DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA WIL
PERSIST...BUT WEAKEN. DUE TO THE MOTION OF CRISTOBAL...SURFACE
WINDS WILL BACK FORM NE TO N OVERNIGHT...INTRODUCING A LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE LIMITED MOISTURE NOW AROUND 900 MB LARGELY DIMINISHING BY
DAYBREAK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND SEVEN DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AND STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON THU...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS  HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH I-40 CORRIDOR INTO SRN VA ON BY LATE
THURSDAY. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AS CAPES INCREASE TO PERHAPS
1000J/KG OR MORE. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT WIDELY
SCT/SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE THU EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RE-ASSERTS ITSELF ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE A CATEGORY OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S.
THROUGH TUE BUT DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SATURDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW NC MOUNTAINS
AND NE GA MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SCT ELSEWHERE
ON SUNDAY. WILL ADVERTISE NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
BOTH MONDAY AND TUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SE
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN.  LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNDER A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW WITH LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AS HURRICANE CRISTOBALS WIND FIELD WORKS TO BACK
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AFFECTING KAVL BY MID
MORNING.  KEPT PREVIOUS FM GROUP MENTION OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH A
4HR TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE...ABOVE MENTIONED DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART ASIDE FOR POSSIBLE LOW
VFR CU AT KAVL.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 270225
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL STRATUS
HAS EXPANDED IN DEPTH/COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT.  THIS SKY COVER WAS EXPECTED HOWEVER HAS DEVELOPED A FEW
HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.  THUS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS
OVERNIGHT BY BLENDING IN LATEST NAM WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD READ
ON THE CURRENT SITUATION.  OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALL BUT
CALMED AT MOST SITES AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING OFF RATHER NICELY AMIDST MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AS MOST PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS SITES ARE ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR
TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL SYSTEM CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTH OFF THE EAST
COAST. DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA WIL
PERSIST...BUT WEAKEN. DUE TO THE MOTION OF CRISTOBAL...SURFACE
WINDS WILL BACK FORM NE TO N OVERNIGHT...INTRODUCING A LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE LIMITED MOISTURE NOW AROUND 900 MB LARGELY DIMINISHING BY
DAYBREAK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND SEVEN DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AND STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON THU...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS  HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH I-40 CORRIDOR INTO SRN VA ON BY LATE
THURSDAY. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AS CAPES INCREASE TO PERHAPS
1000J/KG OR MORE. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT WIDELY
SCT/SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE THU EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RE-ASSERTS ITSELF ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE A CATEGORY OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S.
THROUGH TUE BUT DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SATURDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW NC MOUNTAINS
AND NE GA MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SCT ELSEWHERE
ON SUNDAY. WILL ADVERTISE NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
BOTH MONDAY AND TUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SE
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN.  LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNDER A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW WITH LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AS HURRICANE CRISTOBALS WIND FIELD WORKS TO BACK
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AFFECTING KAVL BY MID
MORNING.  KEPT PREVIOUS FM GROUP MENTION OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH A
4HR TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE...ABOVE MENTIONED DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART ASIDE FOR POSSIBLE LOW
VFR CU AT KAVL.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 262321
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
721 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT TUESDAY...ASIDE FOR LIMITED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
STREAMING ALOFT AND PATCHY LOW LEVEL CU ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY.  LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.  DID
TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL SYSTEM CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTH OFF THE EAST
COAST. DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA WIL
PERSIST...BUT WEAKEN. DUE TO THE MOTION OF CRISTOBAL...SURFACE
WINDS WILL BACK FORM NE TO N OVERNIGHT...INTRODUCING A LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE LIMITED MOISTURE NOW AROUND 900 MB LARGELY DIMINISHING BY
DAYBREAK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND SEVEN DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AND STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON THU...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS  HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH I-40 CORRIDOR INTO SRN VA ON BY LATE
THURSDAY. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AS CAPES INCREASE TO PERHAPS
1000J/KG OR MORE. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT WIDELY
SCT/SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE THU EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RE-ASSERTS ITSELF ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE A CATEGORY OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S.
THROUGH TUE BUT DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SATURDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW NC MOUNTAINS
AND NE GA MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SCT ELSEWHERE
ON SUNDAY. WILL ADVERTISE NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
BOTH MONDAY AND TUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SE
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN.  LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNDER A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW WITH LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AS HURRICANE CRISTOBALS WIND FIELD WORKS TO BACK
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AFFECTING KAVL BY MID
MORNING.  KEPT PREVIOUS FM GROUP MENTION OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH A
4HR TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE...ABOVE MENTIONED DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART ASIDE FOR POSSIBLE LOW
VFR CU AT KAVL.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 262321
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
721 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT TUESDAY...ASIDE FOR LIMITED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
STREAMING ALOFT AND PATCHY LOW LEVEL CU ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY.  LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.  DID
TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL SYSTEM CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTH OFF THE EAST
COAST. DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA WIL
PERSIST...BUT WEAKEN. DUE TO THE MOTION OF CRISTOBAL...SURFACE
WINDS WILL BACK FORM NE TO N OVERNIGHT...INTRODUCING A LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE LIMITED MOISTURE NOW AROUND 900 MB LARGELY DIMINISHING BY
DAYBREAK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND SEVEN DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AND STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON THU...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS  HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH I-40 CORRIDOR INTO SRN VA ON BY LATE
THURSDAY. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AS CAPES INCREASE TO PERHAPS
1000J/KG OR MORE. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT WIDELY
SCT/SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE THU EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RE-ASSERTS ITSELF ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE A CATEGORY OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S.
THROUGH TUE BUT DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SATURDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW NC MOUNTAINS
AND NE GA MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SCT ELSEWHERE
ON SUNDAY. WILL ADVERTISE NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
BOTH MONDAY AND TUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SE
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN.  LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNDER A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW WITH LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AS HURRICANE CRISTOBALS WIND FIELD WORKS TO BACK
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AFFECTING KAVL BY MID
MORNING.  KEPT PREVIOUS FM GROUP MENTION OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH A
4HR TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE...ABOVE MENTIONED DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART ASIDE FOR POSSIBLE LOW
VFR CU AT KAVL.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 262020
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL AS
PLEASANT WEATHER CONSUMES THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES ARE TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATION
SITES REPORTING UPPER 70S.  SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY REGIONWIDE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY LOW LEVEL CU ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO THE POINT OF LITTLE TO NO GUSTING OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY MINOR GUSTS ARE BEING OBSERVED.  CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL SYSTEM CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTH OFF THE EAST
COAST. DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA WIL
PERSIST...BUT WEAKEN. DUE TO THE MOTION OF CRISTOBAL...SURFACE
WINDS WILL BACK FORM NE TO N OVERNIGHT...INTRODUCING A LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE LIMITED MOISTURE NOW AROUND 900 MB LARGELY DIMINISHING BY
DAYBREAK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND SEVEN DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AND STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON THU...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS  HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH I-40 CORRIDOR INTO SRN VA ON BY LATE
THURSDAY. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AS CAPES INCREASE TO PERHAPS
1000J/KG OR MORE. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT WIDELY
SCT/SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE THU EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RE-ASSERTS ITSELF ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE A CATEGORY OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S.
THROUGH TUE BUT DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SATURDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW NC MOUNTAINS
AND NE GA MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SCT ELSEWHERE
ON SUNDAY. WILL ADVERTISE NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
BOTH MONDAY AND TUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SE
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LOW MVFR CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY HAVE RISEN TO LOW VFR
LEVELS...AND COVERAGE REMAINS GREATER TO THE EST OF THE FIELD. MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW CLOUD COVER DECREASING OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE N
TONIGHT. SOME GUSTS MAY PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON.

AT KAVL...KAVL COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR CIG AND VSBY AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AS HAPPENED THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKY COVER
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE LIMITED WITH TIME. LIGHT N WINDS WILL
PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR.  LOW VFR CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.REMAIN
LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE N TONIGHT. GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT FOG AT TAF SITES
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOG IS INDICATED TO IN THE VICINITY...GENERALLY
TO THE N AND W.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   56%     LOW   56%     LOW   58%     LOW   59%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT








000
FXUS62 KGSP 262020
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL AS
PLEASANT WEATHER CONSUMES THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES ARE TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATION
SITES REPORTING UPPER 70S.  SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY REGIONWIDE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY LOW LEVEL CU ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO THE POINT OF LITTLE TO NO GUSTING OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY MINOR GUSTS ARE BEING OBSERVED.  CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL SYSTEM CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTH OFF THE EAST
COAST. DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA WIL
PERSIST...BUT WEAKEN. DUE TO THE MOTION OF CRISTOBAL...SURFACE
WINDS WILL BACK FORM NE TO N OVERNIGHT...INTRODUCING A LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE LIMITED MOISTURE NOW AROUND 900 MB LARGELY DIMINISHING BY
DAYBREAK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND SEVEN DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AND STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON THU...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS  HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH I-40 CORRIDOR INTO SRN VA ON BY LATE
THURSDAY. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AS CAPES INCREASE TO PERHAPS
1000J/KG OR MORE. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT WIDELY
SCT/SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE THU EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RE-ASSERTS ITSELF ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE A CATEGORY OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S.
THROUGH TUE BUT DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SATURDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW NC MOUNTAINS
AND NE GA MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SCT ELSEWHERE
ON SUNDAY. WILL ADVERTISE NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
BOTH MONDAY AND TUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SE
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LOW MVFR CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY HAVE RISEN TO LOW VFR
LEVELS...AND COVERAGE REMAINS GREATER TO THE EST OF THE FIELD. MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW CLOUD COVER DECREASING OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE N
TONIGHT. SOME GUSTS MAY PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON.

AT KAVL...KAVL COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR CIG AND VSBY AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AS HAPPENED THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKY COVER
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE LIMITED WITH TIME. LIGHT N WINDS WILL
PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR.  LOW VFR CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.REMAIN
LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE N TONIGHT. GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT FOG AT TAF SITES
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOG IS INDICATED TO IN THE VICINITY...GENERALLY
TO THE N AND W.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   56%     LOW   56%     LOW   58%     LOW   59%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT







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