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000
FXUS62 KGSP 260545
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
145 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail over the Southeast region through most of
this week. Moist southerly flow will lead to warmer temperatures and
mainly afternoon chances of showers and thunderstorms each day
through Friday. A period of cooler and wetter weather may develop
late in the weekend as Atlantic low pressure moves toward the
coastline.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 145 AM: convection has dissipated. Mid clouds are spreading
back into the mountains with cirrus across the rest of the area.
Have updated forecast to show these trends.

Otherwise...upper ridging continues to dominate the area through
the near-term, with weakly diffluent southwesterly flow aloft.
Weakness in the upper flow will also slowly push through the area.
Surface high offshore will continue to bring a warm moist southerly
flow to the Southern Appalachians, and this combined with the upper
weakness will continue to allow moisture to pool along the eastern
slopes. Low temperatures tonight another handful of degrees warmer
than those last night with continued increasing low-level moisture.

Convection chances look a little better tomorrow as a weak upper jet
pushes through the Southeast and the dissipating southern end of a
front (if you can call it that) tries to push across the
Appalachians. With the southerly flow continuing to bring moisture
into the area, sbCAPE values are progged to be a couple hundred J/kg
higher tomorrow than today. Cannot rule out some of the convection
breaking containment and spreading across the Piedmont corresponding
with 300-500 J/kg sbCAPE, so have introduced slight chance PoPs
outside of the mountains with mid-range chances at the higher
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday: The short range fcst period kicks
off Thursday evening amidst a broad upper subtropical anticyclone
dominating the pattern for the southeast CONUS, while an H5 vortex
continues to deepen over the four corners states.  At the surface,
a western Atlantic ridge beneath the a fore mentioned H5 high
will prevail leading to south/southeasterly waa across much of
the south as cyclogenesis is underway over the western tier of the
southern Plains.  Closer to home, diurnal convection looks to be
the primary weather feature to impact northeast GA and the western
Carolinas through the period as the overall pattern doesn`t modify
all that much.  Guidance favors mtn/fthill airmass convection at
initialization, again on Friday, and to a lesser extent Saturday
per soundings that feature slightly drier llvs.  Points further
south and west will see decreased chances for said convection given
proximity to the upper ridge axis and thus subsidence.  Overall,
any hazards will most likely remain tied to the mtns/fthills where
slow storm motions could lead to isolated flash flooding associated
with any prolonged/deeper pulse convection.  Outside of the high
terrain the threats are lower in general as antecedent conditions
are less favorable for flash flooding.  All in all, the fcst will
feature similar pops each day with with pops increased over/along
the Blue Ridge, less so over the Piedmont.  Temperatures through
the period will continue to be above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...No sigfnt changes were made to the ext
range fcst. The guidance continues to show a weakness in the Atl
ridge early Sun with the development of a weak tropical system
likely. The latest GFS has trended more inline with the ECMWF in
regards to the track and strength of the Atl low. It looks like the
low will be picked up by the westerlies early on leading to a
sheared and disorganized system as it approaches the coast. There
are a couple GEFS ens members bringing a very weak sfc low across
the Carolinas...but the main driver will be an H5 vort center...if
at all. So...will keep the best pops capped at high-end chance Mon
with some likelys across the se/rn upslope regions. Cloud cover and
llvl tropical theta/e increases during the period so diurnal temp
curves will hover arnd 20 F...basically highs around normal and lows
a couple cats above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period at TAF sites, outside
of thunderstorms. There will be some fog at non-TAF sites this
morning. Mid clouds will spread east across the area this morning
with ceilings most likely at KAVL/KHKY. Winds will be light S to SW.
Expect another round of low VFR Cu developing during the morning but
with increasing moisture probably more coverage resulting in
ceilings for the afternoon and evening. The convection-allowing
model guidance and the synoptic scale guidance indicate scattered
convection forming over the mountains and spreading into the
foothills with only isolated coverage over the piedmont. Therefore,
have retained the PROB30 at all sites but KCLT where chance is
lowest. Did adjust the timing, generally later, based on latest
guidance. Convection dissipates during the evening. SW winds
increase in speed during the morning, then diminish through the
evening.

Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the period, but
patchy morning fog chances continue at KAVL. Scattered afternoon
SHRA/TSRA coverage will increase on Friday, with more uncertainty
into the weekend and early next week.

Confidence Table...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK/Wimberley
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH/TDP
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 251043
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
643 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail over the Southeast most of this
week. Moist southerly flow will lead to warmer temperatures and
mainly afternoon chances of showers and thunderstorms each day
through Friday. A period of cooler and wetter weather may develop
late in the weekend as low pressure moves onshore from the Atlantic.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM: Area of mid clouds has moved east, but additional mid
and high clouds are moving back in from the west ahead of a weak
short wave moving toward the area. Southwesterly low level flow will
bring increasing moisture and warmth to the area today. This will
lead to weak instability across the mountains this afternoon.
Isolated to scattered convection will develop across the mountains
this afternoon then diminish during the evening. Forecast soundings
show a capped atmosphere or very high LFC levels outside of the
mountains today. The synoptic scale guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario. Some of the convection allowing models show a line of
convection developing to our west ahead of the aforementioned weak
short wave. This convection moves into the mountains, including NE
GA and the Upstate, this afternoon and dissipates as it reaches the
foothills of the three states. For now, have followed the synoptic
model scenario given the weak short wave and weak instability.
Clouds will linger much of the night even as the convection wanes.
Highs today and lows tonight will be around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Wed: Generally speaking, a western Atlantic ridge
will be the dominant feature over the Southeast Thursday and
Friday. Moist southerly low-level flow will continue. On Thursday
a broad warm front will extend from low pressure over the northern
Plains southeastward into the upper Ohio Valley and vicinity, but
unlike some previous runs there is no longer indication this will
enhance lift over our CWFA. Diurnal destabilization will result
in PoPs slightly above climo and extending to all zones. The
ridge deepens by Friday afternoon and lapse rates are not quite
as good, so chances are correspondingly lower then. Max temps will
be slightly above climo, and mins will be several degrees above.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Wed: The upper pattern progresses little into the
weekend, with the Bermuda High holding back the central CONUS
trough. While this by itself would suggest a continuation of mainly
diurnal convection and near- or above-normal temps, the "wildcard"
in the forecast continues to be the track of low pressure moving
out of the Bahamas and toward the South Atlantic coast Saturday and
beyond. Global models continue to show poor run-to-run consistency
with this feature, but the latest consensus (if you can call it
that) suggests the low will approach the Charleston area. Some
guidance stagnates the low along the coast and eventually takes
it toward the Outer Banks; the GFS and some GEM Ensemble members
instead bring it onshore near the mouth of the Savannah River. While
most guidance suggests deeper tropical moisture spreading over the
Carolinas as the low approaches, they do so to varying degrees,
and the timing thereof is not agreed upon. For now, a blend of
favored guidance produces suppressed diurnal PoPs on Saturday as a
pocket of dry air swings over the area ahead of the low, but then
a slow but steady increase in chances from Saturday night into
Monday. Max temps will fall to a couple degrees below climo early
next week under mostly cloudy and damp conditions; this will keep
diurnal ranges limited and thus min temps will be well above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: area of mid clouds has moved east, but mid
and high clouds are moving back into the area from the west. Any
patchy fog will quickly burn off this morning. Expect cumulus to
develop with heating after daybreak. Isolated to scattered mountain
ridge top convection will develop through the afternoon then taper
off during the evening. Confidence too low for any mention at KAVL
or the other airfields. SW winds will increase in speed through the
day, then taper off during the evening.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the period, but
patchy morning fog chances continue at KAVL. Scattered afternoon
SHRA/TSRA coverage will increase Thursday through Friday - with more
uncertainty on Sat.

Confidence Table...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 250735
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
335 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail over the Southeast most of this
week. Moist southerly flow will lead to warmer temperatures and
mainly afternoon chances of showers and thunderstorms each day
through Friday. A period of cooler and wetter weather may develop
late in the weekend as low pressure moves onshore from the Atlantic.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 305 AM: Area of mid clouds trapped under a weak subsidence
inversion will move east of the area or scatter out around daybreak.
Another area of mid and high clouds will begin spreading into the
mountains around that time ahead of a weak short wave moving toward
the area. Southwesterly low level flow will bring increasing
moisture and warmth to the area today. This will lead to weak
instability across the mountains this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered convection will develop across the mountains this
afternoon then diminish during the evening. Forecast soundings show
a capped atmosphere or very high LFC levels outside of the mountains
today. The synoptic scale guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario. Some of the convection allowing models show a line of
convection developing to our west ahead of the aforementioned weak
short wave. This convection moves into the mountains, including NE
GA and the Upstate, this afternoon and dissipates as it reaches the
foothills of the three states. For now, have followed the synoptic
model scenario given the weak short wave and weak instability.
Clouds will linger much of the night even as the convection wanes.
Highs today and lows tonight will be around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Wed: Generally speaking, a western Atlantic ridge
will be the dominant feature over the Southeast Thursday and
Friday. Moist southerly low-level flow will continue. On Thursday
a broad warm front will extend from low pressure over the northern
Plains southeastward into the upper Ohio Valley and vicinity, but
unlike some previous runs there is no longer indication this will
enhance lift over our CWFA. Diurnal destabilization will result
in PoPs slightly above climo and extending to all zones. The
ridge deepens by Friday afternoon and lapse rates are not quite
as good, so chances are correspondingly lower then. Max temps will
be slightly above climo, and mins will be several degrees above.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Wed: The upper pattern progresses little into the
weekend, with the Bermuda High holding back the central CONUS
trough. While this by itself would suggest a continuation of mainly
diurnal convection and near- or above-normal temps, the "wildcard"
in the forecast continues to be the track of low pressure moving
out of the Bahamas and toward the South Atlantic coast Saturday and
beyond. Global models continue to show poor run-to-run consistency
with this feature, but the latest consensus (if you can call it
that) suggests the low will approach the Charleston area. Some
guidance stagnates the low along the coast and eventually takes
it toward the Outer Banks; the GFS and some GEM Ensemble members
instead bring it onshore near the mouth of the Savannah River. While
most guidance suggests deeper tropical moisture spreading over the
Carolinas as the low approaches, they do so to varying degrees,
and the timing thereof is not agreed upon. For now, a blend of
favored guidance produces suppressed diurnal PoPs on Saturday as a
pocket of dry air swings over the area ahead of the low, but then
a slow but steady increase in chances from Saturday night into
Monday. Max temps will fall to a couple degrees below climo early
next week under mostly cloudy and damp conditions; this will keep
diurnal ranges limited and thus min temps will be well above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: mid clouds trapped under a subsidence
inversion are spreading out across the area outside of the
mountains. Expect the BKN mid clouds to scatter out near daybreak as
cirrus moves in from the west. Cannot rule out some mountain valley
fog, but chance will increase if the high clouds move in slower than
expected. Expect cumulus to develop with heating after daybreak.
Isolated to scattered mountain ridge top convection will develop
through the afternoon then taper off during the evening. Confidence
too low for any mention at KAVL or the other airfields. SW winds
will increase in speed through the day, then taper off during the
evening.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the period, but
patchy morning fog chances continue at KAVL. Scattered afternoon
SHRA/TSRA coverage will increase Thursday through Friday - with more
uncertainty on Sat.

Confidence Table...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241847
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
247 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail over the Southeast most of this week. A
moist southerly flow will develop in mid week, which will
lead to warmer temperatures and mainly afternoon chances of showers
and thunderstorms each day through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday: Upper ridging will continue to build into
the area through the short term with corresponding height increases,
naturally resulting in temperature increases as well. Southerly,
albeit weak, flow around the periphery of the western Atlantic
surface high will continue to bring moisture into the area, so most
notably we will see an increase in overnight low temperatures
tonight, a good 5-10 degrees warmer than what we saw this morning.
Highs Wednesday will climb a couple of degrees warmer than those
today (currently 79 at GSP at AFD time).

However, a weak shortwave will lift over the ridge tonight into
early tomorrow, tracking up the Ohio Valley. This will bring enough
deep-layer moisture and weak lift for slight to low chances of
thunder across the mountains Wednesday afternoon, with of course an
increase in afternoon Cu. sbCAPE is limited, generally less than 500
J/kg with slightly higher amounts localized over the peaks where
topography comes into play. Main threat would be with cloud-to-
ground lightning, and without even being in General Thunder for the
Day2 SPC Outlook, any other threats would be very minor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday:  The short term fcst period initializes
Wednesday evening amidst a broad, yet slowly weakening upper ridge
centered over the southeast states, while a large H5 trof digs over
the desert southwest.  At the surface, high pressure over the
western Atlantic will continue to promote weak southerly waa across
the southern Appalachians as cyclogenesis gets underway ahead of the
a fore mentioned H5 trof atop western KS/OK/TX.  Closer to home, a
weak shortwave impulse riding through the apex of the upper ridge
combined with ample llv destabilization will have resulted in
iso/sct shra and tsra over the NC high terrain by 00z Wednesday.
With that, profiles are indicative of pulse type convection amidst
weak flow throughout the column and ever improving deep layer
moisture.  Pwats aren`t all that impressive, generally 1.25-1.5
inches at best, however given the weak flow and modestly elevated
lcls, think the primary convective concern will be wet microbursts
as well as isolated flash flooding amidst any slow moving
heavier/deeper convection.

Moving along through the period, not much change synoptically on
Thursday and Friday as the subtropical ridge persists over the
southeast CONUS, with continued southerly waa at the surface.
Precipitation chances remain elevated over the high terrain where
any inhibition will be weakest each day allowing for more widespread
initiation with heating.  As for the remainder of northeast GA and
the western Carolinas, precipitation chances will be lower through
the period relative to the mtns given proximity to the ridge center,
however said chances do increase with time as guidance favors
generally unstable and uncapped profiles both Thursday/Friday with
improving pwats and weak flow aloft. All said, the threat for pulse
convection induced flash flooding will increase over the NC mtns
given degrading antecedent conditions each day.  Antecedent
conditions over the piedmont regions will also be degraded with
time, however relatively less than that of the mtns, yet still
presenting a non zero threat for hydro issues.  Lastly, guidance
continues to indicate, although with some discontinuity regarding
the details, that a weak tropical low is to form/strengthen over the
western Atlantic and eventually approach the southeast coast on
Friday evening.  Although any specific impacts from this feature are
beyond the scope of this fcst time frame, it should be noted that
flow over the southeast does look to back as the system approaches.
This could yield improving upslope flow conditions along the blue
ridge for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 2 PM Tuesday:  An upper ridge east of the Mississippi and
broad upper trough to the west on all models at 00z Saturday. The
ridge broadens over the weekend and into the first half of next week
as tropical moisture moves toward the Carolinas from the Bahamas.
Diurnal convection is expected each PM but so much depends on where
this tropical moisture ends up.  The GFS is still bringing the weak
low more to the west than the ECMWF. The GFS gives the western
Carolinas and NE GA tropical rains late Sunday into the first half
of the week while the ECMWF has us mostly dry. National guidance
remains of opinion that organized tropical development has low
chance.  7 day rain total guidance are now showing upslope
enhancement rainfall of at least 1.5 along eastern Escarpment. GFS
now takes the weak tropical low up I-26 from Sunday evening to the
NC Mtns on Tuesday.  Whenever there is a named TC, the first one
will be named ALEX and secondly BONNIE. That may take a while though.

Low level wind flow will depend greatly on the track of the
counterclockwise circulation of low pressure.  The ECMWF has mostly
light and variable on Saturday then east and NE Sunday into Tuesday
with a projected low center crossing the NC coast. ECMWF and GFS has
less than 500 CAPE Saturday PM.  Instability generally 1000 to 1500
CAPE are forecast by the models each PM.

Max temps well into the 80s on Saturday, Gradually cooling off to
70s Mtns and 80 to 84 foothills and piedmont Mon and Tuesday due to
the increased clouds and tropical saturation. MINs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period for the TAF sites,
though cannot rule out some brief fog in the southwest mountain
valleys toward sunrise Wednesday. Generally light SW winds (5kt or
less) through the period, near calm overnight. Will see intermittent
cirrus passing through the area, but otherwise SKC until Wednesday
midday when some low VFR Cu should develop across the area.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the week, but
patchy morning fog chance continues at KAVL. Scattered afternoon
SHRA/TSRA may return Wednesday afternoon, with daily coverage
increasing Thursday and Friday.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO/Wimberley
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...TDP





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241736
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
136 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail over the Southeast most of this week. A
moist southerly flow will develop in mid week, which will
lead to warmer temperatures and mainly afternoon chances of showers
and thunderstorms each day through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM Tuesday: No significant changes to the forecast for
the morning update. Main grid adjustments have been to reduce sky
cover through the day and adjust T/Td/winds based on recent obs
trends as well as near-term guidance.

Otherwise, upper ridging builds into the area today and tonight as
surface high pressure moves east across the area. This results in a
weak, but increasing southwesterly flow. Expect some ridge top
cumulus to develop during the afternoon, with mostly sunny skies
elsewhere. With thicknesses rising, highs today will top out near or
a little above normal. Any ridge top cumulus will dissipate with
loss of heating this evening. However, expect an increase in clouds
across the mountains overnight as a weak short wave moves through
the ridge and into the area. Forecast remains dry, with lows
dropping to near or a couple of degrees above normal. Patchy fog
will again be possible, but chance of widespread or dense fog is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Tue: High pressure over the South Atlantic coast
will bring south to southwest return flow into the area Wed and
Thu. Diurnal instability will trend upward from day to day, driving
diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Subsidence will keep the Piedmont
sufficiently stable Wed, so PoPs are confined to the mountains then;
they expand to about the I-85 corridor Thu. Minimal shear implies
mainly disorganized pulse storms can be expected with localized
downbursts being the main threat besides lightning. Temps will
rise about a category above climo each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tue: The late week pattern will be dominated by a
broad upper ridge centered over the mid-Atlantic coast and sfc high
pressure. This by itself would result in rather run-of-the-mill
weather for late May, in which PoPs would be tied to diurnal
instability and temps at or a little above climo. However, the
proverbial fly in the ointment is what appears to be increasing
consensus for a tropical low to move into the Carolinas over
the weekend. Spread on the track thereof is still pretty wide
overall, but the 00z GFS and EC both show landfall near the Grand
Strand. They differ on its position thereafter. Winds do not appear
to be of concern on land at this point, but the nature of moisture
flux varies across the guidance spectrum, so it is difficult to
say whether PoPs would be greatly increased or decreased by the
presence of the system. It is difficult to make a model blend (for
grid production purposes) that does not reflect any influence from
it, though confidence on its track remains moderate at best. My
preferred choice of action at this point is to reflect PoPs only
slightly above climo, with mainly diurnal trends, but elevated
sky cover and slightly cooler temps Sun-Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period for the TAF sites,
though cannot rule out some brief fog in the southwest mountain
valleys toward sunrise Wednesday. Generally light SW winds (5kt or
less) through the period, near calm overnight. Will see intermittent
cirrus passing through the area, but otherwise SKC until Wednesday
midday when some low VFR Cu should develop across the area.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the week, but
patchy morning fog chance continues at KAVL. Scattered afternoon
SHRA/TSRA may return Wednesday afternoon, with daily coverage
increasing Thursday and Friday.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...RWH/TDP
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...TDP





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241456
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1056 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail over the Southeast most of this week. A
moist southerly flow will develop by tomorrow, which will lead to
warmer temperatures and mainly afternoon chances of showers and
thunderstorms each day through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM Tuesday: No significant changes to the forecast for
the morning update. Main grid adjustments have been to reduce sky
cover through the day and adjust T/Td/winds based on recent obs
trends as well as near-term guidance.

Otherwise, upper ridging builds into the area today and tonight as
surface high pressure moves east across the area. This results in a
weak, but increasing southwesterly flow. Expect some ridge top
cumulus to develop during the afternoon, with mostly sunny skies
elsewhere. With thicknesses rising, highs today will top out near or
a little above normal. Any ridge top cumulus will dissipate with
loss of heating this evening. However, expect an increase in clouds
across the mountains overnight as a weak short wave moves through
the ridge and into the area. Forecast remains dry, with lows
dropping to near or a couple of degrees above normal. Patchy fog
will again be possible, but chance of widespread or dense fog is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Tue: High pressure over the South Atlantic coast
will bring south to southwest return flow into the area Wed and
Thu. Diurnal instability will trend upward from day to day, driving
diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Subsidence will keep the Piedmont
sufficiently stable Wed, so PoPs are confined to the mountains then;
they expand to about the I-85 corridor Thu. Minimal shear implies
mainly disorganized pulse storms can be expected with localized
downbursts being the main threat besides lightning. Temps will
rise about a category above climo each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tue: The late week pattern will be dominated by a
broad upper ridge centered over the mid-Atlantic coast and sfc high
pressure. This by itself would result in rather run-of-the-mill
weather for late May, in which PoPs would be tied to diurnal
instability and temps at or a little above climo. However, the
proverbial fly in the ointment is what appears to be increasing
consensus for a tropical low to move into the Carolinas over
the weekend. Spread on the track thereof is still pretty wide
overall, but the 00z GFS and EC both show landfall near the Grand
Strand. They differ on its position thereafter. Winds do not appear
to be of concern on land at this point, but the nature of moisture
flux varies across the guidance spectrum, so it is difficult to
say whether PoPs would be greatly increased or decreased by the
presence of the system. It is difficult to make a model blend (for
grid production purposes) that does not reflect any influence from
it, though confidence on its track remains moderate at best. My
preferred choice of action at this point is to reflect PoPs only
slightly above climo, with mainly diurnal trends, but elevated
sky cover and slightly cooler temps Sun-Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: No changes to the KCLT TAF for the 15z
AMD. Otherwise, just intermittent cirrus moving in through the rest
of the period. Light NW or W wind becomes SW as mixing develops by
noon. Winds become light and variable or calm this evening. Patchy
fog cannot be ruled out overnight, but chance of restrictions is low.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the week, but
patchy morning fog chance continues at KAVL. Scattered afternoon
SHRA/TSRA may return Wednesday, with daily coverage increasing
Thursday and Friday.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...RWH/TDP
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...RWH/TDP





000
FXUS62 KGSP 240233
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1033 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure builds into our region from the Mississippi
and Ohio valleys for the first half of the week as low pressure
lingers over the Mid-Atlantic. A moist southerly flow develops in
the middle of the week, which will lead to warmer temperatures
and mainly afternoon chances of showers and thunderstorms each
day into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At 10:30 PM Monday...Little change. An upper level low pressure
system continues to spin off the coast of North Carolina and
Virginia, while spokes of energy rotate around its western flank.
Pockets of cloudiness were noted on satellite, but all appeared on a
downward trend. Expect this to continue for the remainder of the
overnight hours.  Upstream clouds to the north may clip parts of our
northern and eastern areas in the wee hours, however models have
been overdone in this department. Bottom line, have made additional
adjustments in the cloud department, gradually ranging from a clear
to partly cloudy sky by daybreak.

We have followed short term guide in the temperature department.
Since the clouds are on the wane, we expanded the placement of
patchy fog.

For Tuesday, the fcst remains dry with a few cu possible, however
with less overall density as soundings exhibit a dryer llv layer
than that of today.  Likewise, mid level temperatures will be warmer
amidst rising heights as the upper ridge settles in.
Temperatures through the period will warm with overnight lows near
normal, leading into afternoon highs topping out a few degrees above
normal for Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...The upper pattern will dominate the sensible
wx through the short-term period as deep layered ridging slowly
crosses east. Soundings indicate a strong subs inver developing
Wed...which will effectively limit the convec potential to the nc
mtns as llvl moist flux remains weak. Will continue the isol pop
mention late Wed across the mtns with fair wx cu and ci anticipated
across the non/mtns. The Atl ridge backs off slightly Thu and this
will allow a bit better moisture transport as llvl winds align more
sw/ly. With max temps remaining above normal...the increase in Td/s
shud enable at least moderate levels of SBCAPE based on a GFS/NAM
blend. Pops are more expansive Thu...but will mainly cover the mtns
and nc fhills. The flow through the column remains very weak...thus
storms that develop will be thermally cyclic and unorganized. The
main stg/svr threat from the deeper tstms will be large hail with a
couple lower-end microbursts possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2 PM Monday, Upper heights rise into the weekend as the ridge
builds over the East and broad trofiness lingers over the Western
half of the nation.  Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure initially
over the Bahamas Thursday night and Friday will drift north toward
SC through the weekend.  This feature was originally displayed just
on GFS but now other models are showing it as well with some timing
differences. However, the GFS solution for development is considered
a low possibility. The inverted wave should remain weak as it drifts
toward the SC coast.

Waves of low pressure will track from near TX to the Great Lakes
then east over the top of the ridge. High CAPEs and other factors in
organized SVR threats will stay out over the plains and Miss Valley
areas. Models have generally low CAPE over the western Carolinas and
NE GA Friday PM...only 500 or less on GFS for NC mtns. A little
better instability on Saturday although the GFS has the tropical
low east of Savannah at 00Z Sunday. For Sunday and Monday, the GFS
and ECMWF have differences based on the advancement of the tropical
low across the mid Atlantic on the GFS as it has the low crossing
central NC at 18Z Monday. The ECMWF has a tropical low reaching the
GA coast at 12Z Wed which is after our current forecast period.
Our low level wind flow is forecast to be from a general southerly
direction Friday and Saturday, light and variable Sunday then based
on ECMWF will be from the east early next week.

Max Temps well into the 80s Friday and Saturday then cooling to 70s
mtns and lower to mid 80s Piedmont by Monday. Min Temps in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A variety of clouds, and at varying levels,
still remain across pockets of our forecast area. We still expect
VFR through the period at all sites aside for KAVL/KHKY where valley
fog will likely occur once again given, persistence of low level
moisture, and winds becoming weak to calm at the surface.

More specifically, guidance favors (but appears overdone)continued
low level moisture advection overnight as moisture wraps around the
primary east coast upper low, therefore all tafs feature only
few/sct lower vfr clouds. Although some drying looks probable on
Tuesday morning, all tafs feature continued few vfr clouds through
the morning, before some lower afternoon cumulus bubbles up.

Winds should be trending to light and variable, or calm, as the
night wears on. The flow will continue to veer Tuesday with winds
taking on a more southerly flow.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the week, but
patchy morning fog chance continues at KAVL. Scattered afternoon
SHRA/TSRA may return Wednesday, with daily coverage increasing
Thursday and Friday.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High  83%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO/Wimberley
NEAR TERM...CDG/TS
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CDG/TS





000
FXUS62 KGSP 240025
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
825 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure builds into our region from the Mississippi
and Ohio valleys for the first half of the week as low pressure
lingers over the Mid-Atlantic. A moist southerly flow develops in
the middle of the week, which will lead to warmer temperatures
and mainly afternoon chances of showers and thunderstorms each
day into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At 8:15 PM Monday...An upper level low pressure system continues to
spin off the coast of North Carolina and Virginia, while spokes of
energy rotate around its western flank. Pockets of cloudiness were
noted on satellite, mid level clouds in our western forecast area,
and lower level clouds northern and eastern sections. We would
expect the western mid level clouds to dissipate through the
evening, while some cloudiness (upstream to the north) may clip
parts of our northern and eastern areas overnight. Therefore, we
have made adjustments in the cloud department.

The potential for diurnal showers, in a cool and more unstable
environment, has ended. We have followed short term guide in the
temperature department, and also in the placement of patchy fog.

For Tuesday, the fcst remains dry with a few cu possible, however
with less overall density as soundings exhibit a dryer llv layer
than that of today.  Likewise, mid level temperatures will be warmer
amidst rising heights as the upper ridge settles in.
Temperatures through the period will warm with overnight lows near
normal, leading into afternoon highs topping out a few degrees above
normal for Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...The upper pattern will dominate the sensible
wx through the short-term period as deep layered ridging slowly
crosses east. Soundings indicate a strong subs inver developing
Wed...which will effectively limit the convec potential to the nc
mtns as llvl moist flux remains weak. Will continue the isol pop
mention late Wed across the mtns with fair wx cu and ci anticipated
across the non/mtns. The Atl ridge backs off slightly Thu and this
will allow a bit better moisture transport as llvl winds align more
sw/ly. With max temps remaining above normal...the increase in Td/s
shud enable at least moderate levels of SBCAPE based on a GFS/NAM
blend. Pops are more expansive Thu...but will mainly cover the mtns
and nc fhills. The flow through the column remains very weak...thus
storms that develop will be thermally cyclic and unorganized. The
main stg/svr threat from the deeper tstms will be large hail with a
couple lower-end microbursts possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2 PM Monday, Upper heights rise into the weekend as the ridge
builds over the East and broad trofiness lingers over the Western
half of the nation.  Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure initially
over the Bahamas Thursday night and Friday will drift north toward
SC through the weekend.  This feature was originally displayed just
on GFS but now other models are showing it as well with some timing
differences. However, the GFS solution for development is considered
a low possibility. The inverted wave should remain weak as it drifts
toward the SC coast.

Waves of low pressure will track from near TX to the Great Lakes
then east over the top of the ridge. High CAPEs and other factors in
organized SVR threats will stay out over the plains and Miss Valley
areas. Models have generally low CAPE over the western Carolinas and
NE GA Friday PM...only 500 or less on GFS for NC mtns. A little
better instability on Saturday although the GFS has the tropical
low east of Savannah at 00Z Sunday. For Sunday and Monday, the GFS
and ECMWF have differences based on the advancement of the tropical
low across the mid Atlantic on the GFS as it has the low crossing
central NC at 18Z Monday. The ECMWF has a tropical low reaching the
GA coast at 12Z Wed which is after our current forecast period.
Our low level wind flow is forecast to be from a general southerly
direction Friday and Saturday, light and variable Sunday then based
on ECMWF will be from the east early next week.

Max Temps well into the 80s Friday and Saturday then cooling to 70s
mtns and lower to mid 80s Piedmont by Monday. Min Temps in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A variety of clouds, and at varying levels,
still remain across pockets of our forecast area. We still expect
VFR through the period at all sites aside for KAVL/KHKY where valley
fog will likely occur once again given, persistence of low level
moisture, and winds becoming weak to calm at the surface.

More specifically, guidance favors (but appears overdone)continued
low level moisture advection overnight as moisture wraps around the
primary east coast upper low, therefore all tafs feature only
few/sct lower vfr clouds. Although some drying looks probable on
Tuesday morning, all tafs feature continued few vfr clouds through
the morning, before some lower afternoon cumulus bubbles up.

Winds should be trending to light and variable, or calm, as the
night wears on. The flow will continue to veer Tuesday with winds
taking on a more southerly flow.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the week, but
patchy morning fog chance continues at KAVL. Scattered afternoon
SHRA/TSRA may return Wednesday, with daily coverage increasing
Thursday and Friday.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High  88%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO/Wimberley
NEAR TERM...CDG/TS
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CDG/TS





000
FXUS62 KGSP 231805
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
205 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure builds into our region from the Mississippi
and Ohio valleys for the first half of the week as low pressure
lingers over the Mid-Atlantic. A moist southerly flow develops in
the middle of the week, which will lead to warmer temperatures
and mainly afternoon chances of showers and thunderstorms each
day into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT:  Low vfr cu continues to highlight the skies this
afternoon amidst breezy northerly flow.  Temperatures across the
region have warmed nicely, especially for areas that have seen less
cu development such as northeast GA, the southwest NC high terrain,
and the western Upstate of SC.  Thus, current immediate near term
fcst looks good therefore no changes were needed/made.  Full fcst
discussion to follow within the hour.

The center of the coastal H5 closed low will drift over the western
Atlantic, but leave cyclonic flow across the Atlantic states. The
circulation around the low should result in cloud cover returning to
the I-40 and I-77 corridors today. Mid level temps will remain quite
cold due to the flow around the low. This will result in just enough
instability for isolated showers to redevelop during the afternoon
across the northern tier of the CWFA. Some mid level clouds will
develop across the rest of the area today, but no showers. There
will be some gusts again across the mountains today, but lighter
winds elsewhere. Highs will be around 5 degrees below normal.

Although clouds will linger across the area this evening, any
showers will dissipate quickly with loss of heating. Light winds
and clearing skies will compete with an increasingly moist air
mass leading to lows a couple of degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...The upper pattern will dominate the sensible
wx through the short-term period as deep layered ridging slowly
crosses east. Soundings indicate a strong subs inver developing
Wed...which will effectively limit the convec potential to the nc
mtns as llvl moist flux remains weak. Will continue the isol pop
mention late Wed across the mtns with fair wx cu and ci anticipated
across the non/mtns. The Atl ridge backs off slightly Thu and this
will allow a bit better moisture transport as llvl winds align more
sw/ly. With max temps remaining above normal...the increase in Td/s
shud enable at least moderate levels of SBCAPE based on a GFS/NAM
blend. Pops are more expansive Thu...but will mainly cover the mtns
and nc fhills. The flow through the column remains very weak...thus
storms that develop will be thermally cyclic and unorganized. The
main stg/svr threat from the deeper tstms will be large hail with a
couple lower-end microbursts possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2 PM Monday, Upper heights rise into the weekend as the ridge
builds over the East and broad trofiness lingers over the Western
half of the nation.  Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure initially
over the Bahamas Thursday night and Friday will drift north toward
SC through the weekend.  This feature was originally displayed just
on GFS but now other models are showing it as well with some timing
differences. However, the GFS solution for development is considered
a low possibility. The inverted wave should remain weak as it drifts
toward the SC coast.

Waves of low pressure will track from near TX to the Great Lakes
then east over the top of the ridge. High CAPEs and other factors in
organized SVR threats will stay out over the plains and Miss Valley
areas. Models have generally low CAPE over the western Carolinas and
NE GA Friday PM...only 500 or less on GFS for NC mtns. A little
better instability on Saturday although the GFS has the tropical
low east of Savannah at 00Z Sunday. For Sunday and Monday, the GFS
and ECMWF have differences based on the advancement of the tropical
low across the mid Atlantic on the GFS as it has the low crossing
central NC at 18Z Monday. The ECMWF has a tropical low reaching the
GA coast at 12Z Wed which is after our current forecast period.
Our low level wind flow is forecast to be from a general southerly
direction Friday and Saturday, light and variable Sunday then based
on ECMWF will be from the east early next week.

Max Temps well into the 80s Friday and Saturday then cooling to 70s
mtns and lower to mid 80s Piedmont by Monday. Min Temps in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Vfr through the period at all sites aside
for KAVL/KHKY where valley fog will likely occur once again
given persistence of llv moisture amongst weak/calm surface flow.
Otherwise, low vfr cu to persist through the day into the evening
before eroding as lapse rates flatten with heating loss.  Guidance
favors continued llv moisture advection overnight as moisture wraps
around the primary New England upper low, therefore all tafs feature
few/sct low vfr stratus.  Although some drying looks probable on
Tuesday morning, all tafs feature continued few low vfr clouds
through the end of the taf cycle.  Northerly winds will remain
elevated with minor gusts possible this afternoon leading into a
light/calm evening as flow veers southeast thanks to a shifting
surface ridge.  Flow will continue to veer and increase out of
the south on Tuesday.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the week, but
patchy morning fog chance continues at KAVL. Scattered afternoon
SHRA/TSRA may return Wednesday, with daily coverage increasing
Thursday and Friday.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   78%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  88%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO/Wimberley
NEAR TERM...CDG/RWH
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 231447
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1047 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure builds into our region from the Mississippi
and Ohio valleys for the first half of the week as low pressure
lingers over the Mid-Atlantic. A moist southerly flow develops in
the middle of the week, which will lead to warmer temperatures
and mainly afternoon chances of showers and thunderstorms each
day into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM EDT:  Fairly nice morning underway across the region
as earlier mountain valley fog has eroded yielding sunny skies,
with llv cu starting to develop along the higher ridgetops.  Cu is
also starting to blossom along the I40/I77 corridors across western
NC where lapse rates have improved with heating.  As for the fcst,
did lower pops a bit to comply with latest nam, however still
think low end slight chances are warranted along north of I40 this
afternoon, as well as over the central/northern mountains where
mid level temps are a bit cooler allowing for steeper lapse rates
and thus slightly enhanced cape.  Otherwise, tweaked t/td in the
immediate near term and left the remainder of the fcst as it was.

The center of the coastal H5 closed low will drift over the western
Atlantic, but leave cyclonic flow across the Atlantic states. The
circulation around the low should result in cloud cover returning to
the I-40 and I-77 corridors today. Mid level temps will remain quite
cold due to the flow around the low. This will result in just enough
instability for isolated showers to redevelop during the afternoon
across the northern tier of the CWFA. Some mid level clouds will
develop across the rest of the area today, but no showers. There
will be some gusts again across the mountains today, but lighter
winds elsewhere. Highs will be around 5 degrees below normal.

Although clouds will linger across the area this evening, any
showers will dissipate quickly with loss of heating. Light winds
and clearing skies will compete with an increasingly moist air
mass leading to lows a couple of degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday: Closed upper low over the Mid-Atlantic will move
east and begin to fill Tue into Wed. A broad upper ridge will shift
into the Southeast in its wake over this period. Low level flow will
remain westerly, tempering moisture return. A midlevel subsidence
inversion will cap convection Tuesday, and while this is still seen
Wed, temperatures will have trended upward enough that models do
generate a small amount of convection over the mountains. Temps will
be near normal Tue and Tue night, and about a category above normal
Wed and Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM Monday: For the late week and weekend the Bermuda
High will be in full control of the pattern over the Southeast, that
is, temperatures will be seasonably warm and precip chances resulting
from diurnal convection. CAPE values trend upward Thu to Fri as the
airmass modifies and warms, so a slight uptick in PoPs is included to
match. With essentially no shear, the usual pulse storm threats can
be expected: locally heavy rain, brief hail, and perhaps strong
downbursts. Upper heights continue to rise into the weekend, and GFS
expects subsidence will cap most convection Sat-Sun, though the EC
allows CAPE to continue to trend upward. Models resolve a bit more
cloud cover those days and temps accordingly are a couple degrees
cooler. Highs Thu-Fri look to be near 5 degrees above climo, dropping
back to a degree or two above climo over the weekend. Latest GFS does
depict a tropical system approaching the GA/SC coasts early Monday,
but run-to-run consistency with this feature has been very poor, and
is not yet depicted on other major models, so confidence is much too
low to mention in the official fcst.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: dense fog at KAVL should dissipate quickly
this morning. Otherwise...high based stratocumulus will spread in
from the north through the day with some ceilings possible for the
NC sites. Cannot rule out a shower for the afternoon at KHKY, but
chance too low to include. N to NE wind will continue through the
day with low end gusts at KAVL. Clouds dissipate and winds become
light SE or calm through the evening. Fog will be possible again at
KAVL Tuesday morning.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the week, but
patchy morning fog chance continues at KAVL. Scattered afternoon
SHRA/TSRA may return Wednesday, with daily coverage increasing
Thursday and Friday.

Confidence Table...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  85%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...CDG/RWH
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 231045
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
645 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure builds into our region from the Mississippi
and Ohio valleys for the first half of the week as low pressure
lingers over the Mid-Atlantic. A moist southerly flow develops in
the middle of the week, which will lead to warmer temperatures
and mainly afternoon chances of showers and thunderstorms each
day into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM, patchy dense mountain valley fog will dissipate
quickly this morning. The center of the coastal H5 closed low will
drift over the western Atlantic, but leave cyclonic flow across the
Atlantic states. The circulation around the low should result in
cloud cover returning to the I-40 and I-77 corridors today. Mid
level temps will remain quite cold due to the flow around the low.
This will result in just enough instability for isolated showers to
redevelop during the afternoon across the northern tier of the CWFA.
Some mid level clouds will develop across the rest of the area
today, but no showers. There will be some gusts again across the
mountains today, but lighter winds elsewhere. Highs will be around 5
degrees below normal.

Although clouds will linger across the area this evening, any
showers will dissipate quickly with loss of heating. Light winds and
clearing skies will compete with an increasingly moist air mass
leading to lows a couple of degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday: Closed upper low over the Mid-Atlantic will move
east and begin to fill Tue into Wed. A broad upper ridge will shift
into the Southeast in its wake over this period. Low level flow will
remain westerly, tempering moisture return. A midlevel subsidence
inversion will cap convection Tuesday, and while this is still seen
Wed, temperatures will have trended upward enough that models do
generate a small amount of convection over the mountains. Temps will
be near normal Tue and Tue night, and about a category above normal
Wed and Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM Monday: For the late week and weekend the Bermuda
High will be in full control of the pattern over the Southeast, that
is, temperatures will be seasonably warm and precip chances resulting
from diurnal convection. CAPE values trend upward Thu to Fri as the
airmass modifies and warms, so a slight uptick in PoPs is included to
match. With essentially no shear, the usual pulse storm threats can
be expected: locally heavy rain, brief hail, and perhaps strong
downbursts. Upper heights continue to rise into the weekend, and GFS
expects subsidence will cap most convection Sat-Sun, though the EC
allows CAPE to continue to trend upward. Models resolve a bit more
cloud cover those days and temps accordingly are a couple degrees
cooler. Highs Thu-Fri look to be near 5 degrees above climo, dropping
back to a degree or two above climo over the weekend. Latest GFS does
depict a tropical system approaching the GA/SC coasts early Monday,
but run-to-run consistency with this feature has been very poor, and
is not yet depicted on other major models, so confidence is much too
low to mention in the official fcst.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: dense fog at KAVL should dissipate quickly
this morning. Otherwise...high based stratocumulus will spread in
from the north through the day with some ceilings possible for the
NC sites. Cannot rule out a shower for the afternoon at KHKY, but
chance too low to include. N to NE wind will continue through the
day with low end gusts at KAVL. Clouds dissipate and winds become
light SE or calm through the evening. Fog will be possible again at
KAVL Tuesday morning.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the week, but
patchy morning fog chance continues at KAVL. Scattered afternoon
SHRA/TSRA may return Wednesday, with daily coverage increasing
Thursday and Friday.

Confidence Table...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...RWH





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