Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KGSP 011105
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
705 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM...AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP CONTINUES TO PIVOT
ACROSS UPSTATE SC AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. AS EARLIER FEARED...PRECIPITATION RATE HAS BEEN HIGH
ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE GREENVILLE METRO AREA TO BRING THE FREEZING
LEVEL DOWN VERY CLOSE TO THE SFC...IN PARTICULAR THE AREA FROM THE
WEST SIDE OF GREENVILLE THROUGH TRAVELERS REST AND NEAR PARIS MTN.
THE TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA FROM GREENVILLE TO THE
LAKELANDS...WITH PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO WET SNOW NOW S OF I-85 DOWN
THROUGH GREENWOOD AND ABBEVILLE. HAVE SINCE EXPANDED THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE UPSTATE FROM I-26 WEST WHERE
THE BEST PRECIP AREA CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE
PRECIP SHOULD CHANCE BACK OVER TO RAIN THROUGH MID MORNING AS TEMPS
START TO WARM. FORTUNATELY...MOST OF THE SNOW WILL MELT ON CONTACT
WITH ROAD SURFACES. THIS REMAINS A DYNAMIC SITUATION SO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES ARE POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
ALL MANNER OF LOW/MID/HIGH UPPER FORCING COMING INTO PLAY. HAVE
RAISED/EXPANDED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS/UPSTATE AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS DOWN FROM THE MTNS. A
MIX/CHANGEOVER ACTUALLY APPEARS A BIT LESS OF A POSSIBILITY OVER
METRO CLT AS THE MODEL TREND WAS A BIT WARMER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...AS WE ARE SEEING CURRENTLY OVER GSP...IF THE PRECIPITATION
FALLS WITH ENUF INTENSITY...SOME WET SNOW COULD MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PULL A QUICK EXIT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY...BRINGING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
AROUND TO A N TO NW DOWNSLOPE AFTER 15Z...WHICH SHOULD START TO
DIMINISH PRECIP POTENTIAL NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE/WRN UPSTATE. AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY...SOME WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION MAY LINGER OVER THE
WRN PIEDMONT INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD ALSO DIE OFF AND
MOVE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE MTNS WILL UNDERGO A
TRANSITION TO A MORE PURE NW FLOW PRECIP EVENT...WHICH WILL MAINLY
BE SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH PRECIP CHANCE NEAR THE TN BORDER...AND
TAPER IT OFF EASTWARD FROM THERE.

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT EVERYWHERE E OF THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NW FLOW SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE TN BORDER. THIS MAY REQUIRE
EXTENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD ABATE ENUF AROUND SUNSET THAT WE CAN KEEP THE SAME EXPIRATION
TIME ON THE WIND ADVISORY. AS FOR THE FREEZE WATCH...FCST LOWS ARE
SUCH THAT WE CAN ROLL THAT OVER TO A FREEZE WARNING. THE WARNING
WILL HAVE TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE NRN FOOTHILLS OF NC BASED ON THE
MIN TEMP FCST. HENDERSON COUNTY NC WILL BE LEFT OUT AS THE FROST/
FREEZE PROGRAM ENDS 1 NOVEMBER AS A MATTER OF POLICY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SAT...A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE
CAROLINAS COAST 12Z SUN WILL LIFT NNE INTO THE MAINE COAST BY 00Z
MON...LEAVING THE CWA UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUN. H5
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE CONSIDERABLY BY MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
OUR REGION BY MON NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUN
AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES BY MONDAY. ANY LINGERING NW
PRECIP ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUN MORNING AS
DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN. WITH PREVAILING CAA NW FLOW ON SUN...TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA ON SUN NIGHT. THEREFORE...ANOTHER FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
OVER EAST OF THE MTNS FOR THIS PERIOD.

AS MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND TEMPS SHOULD
WARM UP BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BY MON AFTERNOON IN ITS WAKE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SAT...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THU...OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRI.

AT THE SURFACE...A MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE
STATES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TUE INTO WED AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION
LATE WED INTO THU...OFF TO OUR EAST BY THU NIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH LOW END CHANCE MANLY OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE MTNS WED AFTERNOON THRU THU MORNING.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. MODES SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE LIGHT NW PRECIP
(A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW) BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ALONG THE TN
BORDER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RN/SN
THERE THRU FRI MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT AROUND 3-5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TUE...WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WED. TEMPS THEN COOL
OFF BY 5-7 DEGREES BY FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND
ACROSS THE AIR FIELD THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE CEILING VARIABLE BETWEEN THE LOW END OF MVFR AND THE UPPER END
OF IFR THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT TO
WHERE IFR IS NO LONGER LIKELY...UNLESS HEAVIER PRECIP FALLS. AT THIS
POINT...STILL THINK PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN. BY THE TIME
STEADIER PRECIP AROUND THE UPPER LOW ROTATES EWD OVER KCLT...THE
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ENUF TO KEEP IT ALL RAIN. WIND WILL REMAIN NW TO N
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH OCNL GUSTS...WHICH MAY BECOME MORE
FREQUENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES PAST DURING
MIDDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER ABOUT 19Z WITH CLEARING AROUND SUNSET. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE
BY THEN WITH WIND REMAINING NW.

ELSEWHERE...A MESS FIRST THING THIS MORNING WITH SNOW POSSIBLE AT
KGMU AND KAND...IN ADDITION TO KAVL. STILL EXPECT THE GREATEST
IMPACT AT KAVL. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW...AND SHOULD REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR OR IFR RANGE. WILL KEEP A
TEMPO IFR FOR THE SNOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF BASED ON RADAR
TREND... AND THIS WILL PROBABLY BE MOVED FORWARD IN TIME WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE AMEND. THE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AT KAVL...BUT MOVE OUT E OF THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ053-
     059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NCZ035-056-068-069-501>510.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     048>052-058.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ003.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>003.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ001>008-010>013-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ002-005>007-010>012-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 010947
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 5 AM...AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP CONTINUES TO PIVOT
ACROSS UPSTATE SC AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. AS EARLIER FEARED...PRECIPITATION RATE HAS BEEN HIGH
ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE GREENVILLE METRO AREA TO BRING THE FREEZING
LEVEL DOWN VERY CLOSE TO THE SFC...IN PARTICULAR THE AREA FROM THE
WEST SIDE OF GREENVILLE THROUGH TRAVELERS REST AND NEAR PARIS MTN.
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE UPSTATE...WITH A FEW POCKETS WHERE IT CHANGES TO ALL WET SNOW.
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL BE ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. AS
IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE AREA WHERE SNOW IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED TO A SMALL PART OF NORTHERN GREENVILLE
COUNTY...SO IT WILL BE HANDLED WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
FORTUNATELY...MOST OF THE SNOW WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH ROAD
SURFACES. THIS REMAINS A DYNAMIC SITUATION SO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE
POSSIBLE. IF TEMPS DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE GSP METRO AREA. THE
CATEGORICAL POP WAS EXPANDED AND EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPSTATE TO
HANDLE THIS DEVELOPMENT.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
ALL MANNER OF LOW/MID/HIGH UPPER FORCING COMING INTO PLAY. HAVE
RAISED/EXPANDED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS/UPSTATE AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS DOWN FROM THE MTNS. A
MIX/CHANGEOVER ACTUALLY APPEARS A BIT LESS OF A POSSIBILITY OVER
METRO CLT AS THE MODEL TREND WAS A BIT WARMER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...AS WE ARE SEEING CURRENTLY OVER GSP...IF THE PRECIPITATION
FALLS WITH ENUF INTENSITY...SOME WET SNOW COULD MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PULL A QUICK EXIT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY...BRINGING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
AROUND TO A N TO NW DOWNSLOPE AFTER 15Z...WHICH SHOULD START TO
DIMINISH PRECIP POTENTIAL NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE/WRN UPSTATE. AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY...SOME WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION MAY LINGER OVER THE
WRN PIEDMONT INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD ALSO DIE OFF AND
MOVE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE MTNS WILL UNDERGO A
TRANSITION TO A MORE PURE NW FLOW PRECIP EVENT...WHICH WILL MAINLY
BE SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH PRECIP CHANCE NEAR THE TN BORDER...AND
TAPER IT OFF EASTWARD FROM THERE.

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT EVERYWHERE E OF THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NW FLOW SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE TN BORDER. THIS MAY REQUIRE
EXTENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD ABATE ENUF AROUND SUNSET THAT WE CAN KEEP THE SAME EXPIRATION
TIME ON THE WIND ADVISORY. AS FOR THE FREEZE WATCH...FCST LOWS ARE
SUCH THAT WE CAN ROLL THAT OVER TO A FREEZE WARNING. THE WARNING
WILL HAVE TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE NRN FOOTHILLS OF NC BASED ON THE
MIN TEMP FCST. HENDERSON COUNTY NC WILL BE LEFT OUT AS THE FROST/
FREEZE PROGRAM ENDS 1 NOVEMBER AS A MATTER OF POLICY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SAT...A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE
CAROLINAS COAST 12Z SUN WILL LIFT NNE INTO THE MAINE COAST BY 00Z
MON...LEAVING THE CWA UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUN. H5
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE CONSIDERABLY BY MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
OUR REGION BY MON NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUN
AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES BY MONDAY. ANY LINGERING NW
PRECIP ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUN MORNING AS
DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN. WITH PREVAILING CAA NW FLOW ON SUN...TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA ON SUN NIGHT. THEREFORE...ANOTHER FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
OVER EAST OF THE MTNS FOR THIS PERIOD.

AS MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND TEMPS SHOULD
WARM UP BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BY MON AFTERNOON IN ITS WAKE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SAT...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THU...OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRI.

AT THE SURFACE...A MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE
STATES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TUE INTO WED AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION
LATE WED INTO THU...OFF TO OUR EAST BY THU NIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH LOW END CHANCE MANLY OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE MTNS WED AFTERNOON THRU THU MORNING.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. MODES SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE LIGHT NW PRECIP
(A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW) BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ALONG THE TN
BORDER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RN/SN
THERE THRU FRI MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT AROUND 3-5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TUE...WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WED. TEMPS THEN COOL
OFF BY 5-7 DEGREES BY FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...ADDITIONAL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NRN UPSTATE OF SC AND INTO THE CLT METRO AREA. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO
CONTINUE FALLING FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CEILING DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE NO LATER
THAN 10Z. WIND WILL REMAIN N AND WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BECOMING GUSTY ONCE THE SUN RISES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS ENUF TO TAP INTO SOME HIGHER WIND ALOFT. THE BIG QUESTION
THIS MORNING IS THE PRECIP TYPE. THE MODEL TREND ON THE 00Z RUN WAS
FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER. FCST SOUNDINGS NO
LONGER SUPPORT SNOW. SFC TEMPS DO NOT FALL BELOW ABOUT 39 DEGREES
EVEN ON THE COLDEST MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ELIMINATED THE RAIN SNOW MIX THAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS TAF. WILL
NEVER COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME WET SNOWFLAKES OR SLEET PELLETS IN
THIS TYPE OF SITUATION WITH A VERY DYNAMIC AND COLD CORE UPPER
LOW...BUT THE CHANCE IS ONLY SOMETHING LIKE 10 PERCENT...SO IT WAS
LEFT OUT OF THE 06Z TAF. WILL EVALUATE AGAIN WHEN THE 03Z SREF
GUIDANCE ARRIVES...AND THE REST OF THE FCST IS UPDATED. THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OUT QUICK DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. CEILING
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AROUND 17Z AND SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT QUICKER THAN THE TAF
INDICATES...BUT CERTAINLY BY AROUND SUNSET...AT WHICH TIME THE WIND
GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT. ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT KAVL...AND SHOULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR OR IFR RANGE. WENT WITH A TEMPO IFR FOR
THE SNOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF BASED ON RADAR TREND... AND
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE MOVED FORWARD IN TIME WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
AMEND. THE OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE LIGHT RAIN AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN...PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME WET SNOW FROM AROUND DAYBREAK
TO MID MORNING DURING THE MOST DYNAMIC PART OF THE LOW PASSAGE. THIS
WAS INCLUDED AS A TEMPO AT KHKY/KGSP/KGMU...BUT LEFT OUT OF KAND AS
DOWNSLOPE SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIP AROUND THE SAV RIVER BASIN. THE LOW
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT KAVL...BUT MOVE
OUT E OF THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ053-
     059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NCZ035-056-068-069-501>510.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     048>052-058.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ003.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>003.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ001>008-010>013-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 010947
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 5 AM...AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP CONTINUES TO PIVOT
ACROSS UPSTATE SC AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. AS EARLIER FEARED...PRECIPITATION RATE HAS BEEN HIGH
ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE GREENVILLE METRO AREA TO BRING THE FREEZING
LEVEL DOWN VERY CLOSE TO THE SFC...IN PARTICULAR THE AREA FROM THE
WEST SIDE OF GREENVILLE THROUGH TRAVELERS REST AND NEAR PARIS MTN.
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE UPSTATE...WITH A FEW POCKETS WHERE IT CHANGES TO ALL WET SNOW.
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL BE ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. AS
IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE AREA WHERE SNOW IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED TO A SMALL PART OF NORTHERN GREENVILLE
COUNTY...SO IT WILL BE HANDLED WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
FORTUNATELY...MOST OF THE SNOW WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH ROAD
SURFACES. THIS REMAINS A DYNAMIC SITUATION SO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE
POSSIBLE. IF TEMPS DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE GSP METRO AREA. THE
CATEGORICAL POP WAS EXPANDED AND EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPSTATE TO
HANDLE THIS DEVELOPMENT.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
ALL MANNER OF LOW/MID/HIGH UPPER FORCING COMING INTO PLAY. HAVE
RAISED/EXPANDED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS/UPSTATE AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS DOWN FROM THE MTNS. A
MIX/CHANGEOVER ACTUALLY APPEARS A BIT LESS OF A POSSIBILITY OVER
METRO CLT AS THE MODEL TREND WAS A BIT WARMER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...AS WE ARE SEEING CURRENTLY OVER GSP...IF THE PRECIPITATION
FALLS WITH ENUF INTENSITY...SOME WET SNOW COULD MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PULL A QUICK EXIT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY...BRINGING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
AROUND TO A N TO NW DOWNSLOPE AFTER 15Z...WHICH SHOULD START TO
DIMINISH PRECIP POTENTIAL NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE/WRN UPSTATE. AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY...SOME WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION MAY LINGER OVER THE
WRN PIEDMONT INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD ALSO DIE OFF AND
MOVE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE MTNS WILL UNDERGO A
TRANSITION TO A MORE PURE NW FLOW PRECIP EVENT...WHICH WILL MAINLY
BE SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH PRECIP CHANCE NEAR THE TN BORDER...AND
TAPER IT OFF EASTWARD FROM THERE.

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT EVERYWHERE E OF THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NW FLOW SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE TN BORDER. THIS MAY REQUIRE
EXTENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD ABATE ENUF AROUND SUNSET THAT WE CAN KEEP THE SAME EXPIRATION
TIME ON THE WIND ADVISORY. AS FOR THE FREEZE WATCH...FCST LOWS ARE
SUCH THAT WE CAN ROLL THAT OVER TO A FREEZE WARNING. THE WARNING
WILL HAVE TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE NRN FOOTHILLS OF NC BASED ON THE
MIN TEMP FCST. HENDERSON COUNTY NC WILL BE LEFT OUT AS THE FROST/
FREEZE PROGRAM ENDS 1 NOVEMBER AS A MATTER OF POLICY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SAT...A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE
CAROLINAS COAST 12Z SUN WILL LIFT NNE INTO THE MAINE COAST BY 00Z
MON...LEAVING THE CWA UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUN. H5
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE CONSIDERABLY BY MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
OUR REGION BY MON NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUN
AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES BY MONDAY. ANY LINGERING NW
PRECIP ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUN MORNING AS
DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN. WITH PREVAILING CAA NW FLOW ON SUN...TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA ON SUN NIGHT. THEREFORE...ANOTHER FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
OVER EAST OF THE MTNS FOR THIS PERIOD.

AS MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND TEMPS SHOULD
WARM UP BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BY MON AFTERNOON IN ITS WAKE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SAT...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THU...OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRI.

AT THE SURFACE...A MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE
STATES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TUE INTO WED AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION
LATE WED INTO THU...OFF TO OUR EAST BY THU NIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH LOW END CHANCE MANLY OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE MTNS WED AFTERNOON THRU THU MORNING.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. MODES SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE LIGHT NW PRECIP
(A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW) BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ALONG THE TN
BORDER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RN/SN
THERE THRU FRI MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT AROUND 3-5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TUE...WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WED. TEMPS THEN COOL
OFF BY 5-7 DEGREES BY FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...ADDITIONAL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NRN UPSTATE OF SC AND INTO THE CLT METRO AREA. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO
CONTINUE FALLING FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CEILING DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE NO LATER
THAN 10Z. WIND WILL REMAIN N AND WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BECOMING GUSTY ONCE THE SUN RISES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS ENUF TO TAP INTO SOME HIGHER WIND ALOFT. THE BIG QUESTION
THIS MORNING IS THE PRECIP TYPE. THE MODEL TREND ON THE 00Z RUN WAS
FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER. FCST SOUNDINGS NO
LONGER SUPPORT SNOW. SFC TEMPS DO NOT FALL BELOW ABOUT 39 DEGREES
EVEN ON THE COLDEST MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ELIMINATED THE RAIN SNOW MIX THAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS TAF. WILL
NEVER COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME WET SNOWFLAKES OR SLEET PELLETS IN
THIS TYPE OF SITUATION WITH A VERY DYNAMIC AND COLD CORE UPPER
LOW...BUT THE CHANCE IS ONLY SOMETHING LIKE 10 PERCENT...SO IT WAS
LEFT OUT OF THE 06Z TAF. WILL EVALUATE AGAIN WHEN THE 03Z SREF
GUIDANCE ARRIVES...AND THE REST OF THE FCST IS UPDATED. THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OUT QUICK DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. CEILING
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AROUND 17Z AND SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT QUICKER THAN THE TAF
INDICATES...BUT CERTAINLY BY AROUND SUNSET...AT WHICH TIME THE WIND
GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT. ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT KAVL...AND SHOULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR OR IFR RANGE. WENT WITH A TEMPO IFR FOR
THE SNOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF BASED ON RADAR TREND... AND
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE MOVED FORWARD IN TIME WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
AMEND. THE OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE LIGHT RAIN AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN...PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME WET SNOW FROM AROUND DAYBREAK
TO MID MORNING DURING THE MOST DYNAMIC PART OF THE LOW PASSAGE. THIS
WAS INCLUDED AS A TEMPO AT KHKY/KGSP/KGMU...BUT LEFT OUT OF KAND AS
DOWNSLOPE SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIP AROUND THE SAV RIVER BASIN. THE LOW
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT KAVL...BUT MOVE
OUT E OF THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ053-
     059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NCZ035-056-068-069-501>510.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     048>052-058.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ003.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>003.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ001>008-010>013-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 010804
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
404 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM...AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP CONTINUES TO EXPAND
OVER UPSTATE SC AND INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND WRN PIEDMONT...FOR
WHICH THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE. WILL INCREASE
THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST OF THE UPSTATE AND
NC FOOTHILLS TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS. WHAT IS TROUBLESOME IS
THAT THE KGSP RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW INTENSIFICATION AS THE AREA OF
REFLECTIVITY 40 DBZ AND GREATER EXPANDS RIGHT OVER METRO
GREENVILLE...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S. THAT
WILL KEEP WET BULB TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE RAIN/SNOW
THRESHOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO DRAG THE
FREEZING LEVEL DOWN CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC TO ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER.
THIS MIGHT BE HAPPENING ALREADY AS LOW AS 1500 FEET IN
ELEVATION...THAT IS TO SAY...ON THE SLOPE OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN
SC...AND THE TOP OF PARIS MTN. FORTUNATELY...IF THE PRECIP CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW...IT WILL BE WET AND PROBABLY MELT ON CONTACT WITH ROAD
SURFACES. WILL EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO INCLUDE RUTHERFORD
MTNS/POLK MTNS/GREENVILLE MTNS BASED ON SNOWFALL REPORTS NEAR
SALUDA. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC SITUATION...AND THE ADVISORY MIGHT
HAVE TO BE EXPANDED EVEN FURTHER.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
ALL MANNER OF LOW/MID/HIGH UPPER FORCING COMING INTO PLAY. HAVE
RAISED/EXPANDED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS/UPSTATE AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS DOWN FROM THE MTNS. A
MIX/CHANGEOVER ACTUALLY APPEARS A BIT LESS OF A POSSIBILITY OVER
METRO CLT AS THE MODEL TREND WAS A BIT WARMER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...AS WE ARE SEEING CURRENTLY OVER GSP...IF THE PRECIPITATION
FALLS WITH ENUF INTENSITY...SOME WET SNOW COULD MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PULL A QUICK EXIT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY...BRINGING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
AROUND TO A N TO NW DOWNSLOPE AFTER 15Z...WHICH SHOULD START TO
DIMINISH PRECIP POTENTIAL NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE/WRN UPSTATE. AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY...SOME WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION MAY LINGER OVER THE
WRN PIEDMONT INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD ALSO DIE OFF AND
MOVE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE MTNS WILL UNDERGO A
TRANSITION TO A MORE PURE NW FLOW PRECIP EVENT...WHICH WILL MAINLY
BE SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH PRECIP CHANCE NEAR THE TN BORDER...AND
TAPER IT OFF EASTWARD FROM THERE.

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT EVERYWHERE E OF THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NW FLOW SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE TN BORDER. THIS MAY REQUIRE
EXTENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD ABATE ENUF AROUND SUNSET THAT WE CAN KEEP THE SAME EXPIRATION
TIME ON THE WIND ADVISORY. AS FOR THE FREEZE WATCH...FCST LOWS ARE
SUCH THAT WE CAN ROLL THAT OVER TO A FREEZE WARNING. THE WARNING
WILL HAVE TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE NRN FOOTHILLS OF NC BASED ON THE
MIN TEMP FCST. HENDERSON COUNTY NC WILL BE LEFT OUT AS THE FROST/
FREEZE PROGRAM ENDS 1 NOVEMBER AS A MATTER OF POLICY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SAT...A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE
CAROLINAS COAST 12Z SUN WILL LIFT NNE INTO THE MAINE COAST BY 00Z
MON...LEAVING THE CWA UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUN. H5
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE CONSIDERABLY BY MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
OUR REGION BY MON NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUN
AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES BY MONDAY. ANY LINGERING NW
PRECIP ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUN MORNING AS
DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN. WITH PREVAILING CAA NW FLOW ON SUN...TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA ON SUN NIGHT. THEREFORE...ANOTHER FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
OVER EAST OF THE MTNS FOR THIS PERIOD.

AS MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND TEMPS SHOULD
WARM UP BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BY MON AFTERNOON IN ITS WAKE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SAT...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THU...OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRI.

AT THE SURFACE...A MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE
STATES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TUE INTO WED AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION
LATE WED INTO THU...OFF TO OUR EAST BY THU NIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH LOW END CHANCE MANLY OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE MTNS WED AFTERNOON THRU THU MORNING.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. MODES SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE LIGHT NW PRECIP
(A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW) BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ALONG THE TN
BORDER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RN/SN
THERE THRU FRI MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT AROUND 3-5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TUE...WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WED. TEMPS THEN COOL
OFF BY 5-7 DEGREES BY FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...ADDITIONAL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NRN UPSTATE OF SC AND INTO THE CLT METRO AREA. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO
CONTINUE FALLING FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CEILING DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE NO LATER
THAN 10Z. WIND WILL REMAIN N AND WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BECOMING GUSTY ONCE THE SUN RISES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS ENUF TO TAP INTO SOME HIGHER WIND ALOFT. THE BIG QUESTION
THIS MORNING IS THE PRECIP TYPE. THE MODEL TREND ON THE 00Z RUN WAS
FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER. FCST SOUNDINGS NO
LONGER SUPPORT SNOW. SFC TEMPS DO NOT FALL BELOW ABOUT 39 DEGREES
EVEN ON THE COLDEST MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ELIMINATED THE RAIN SNOW MIX THAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS TAF. WILL
NEVER COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME WET SNOWFLAKES OR SLEET PELLETS IN
THIS TYPE OF SITUATION WITH A VERY DYNAMIC AND COLD CORE UPPER
LOW...BUT THE CHANCE IS ONLY SOMETHING LIKE 10 PERCENT...SO IT WAS
LEFT OUT OF THE 06Z TAF. WILL EVALUATE AGAIN WHEN THE 03Z SREF
GUIDANCE ARRIVES...AND THE REST OF THE FCST IS UPDATED. THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OUT QUICK DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. CEILING
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AROUND 17Z AND SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT QUICKER THAN THE TAF
INDICATES...BUT CERTAINLY BY AROUND SUNSET...AT WHICH TIME THE WIND
GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT. ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT KAVL...AND SHOULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR OR IFR RANGE. WENT WITH A TEMPO IFR FOR
THE SNOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF BASED ON RADAR TREND... AND
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE MOVED FORWARD IN TIME WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
AMEND. THE OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE LIGHT RAIN AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN...PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME WET SNOW FROM AROUND DAYBREAK
TO MID MORNING DURING THE MOST DYNAMIC PART OF THE LOW PASSAGE. THIS
WAS INCLUDED AS A TEMPO AT KHKY/KGSP/KGMU...BUT LEFT OUT OF KAND AS
DOWNSLOPE SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIP AROUND THE SAV RIVER BASIN. THE LOW
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT KAVL...BUT MOVE
OUT E OF THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ053-
     059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NCZ035-056-068-069-501>510.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     048>052-058.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ003.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>003.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ001>008-010>013-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 010740
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM...AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP CONTINUES TO EXPAND
OVER UPSTATE SC AND INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND WRN PIEDMONT...FOR
WHICH THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE. WILL INCREASE
THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST OF THE UPSTATE AND
NC FOOTHILLS TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS. WHAT IS TROUBLESOME IS
THAT THE KGSP RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW INTENSIFICATION AS THE AREA OF
REFLECTIVITY 40 DBZ AND GREATER EXPANDS RIGHT OVER METRO
GREENVILLE...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S. THAT
WILL KEEP WET BULB TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE RAIN/SNOW
THRESHOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO DRAG THE
FREEZING LEVEL DOWN CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC TO ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER.
THIS MIGHT BE HAPPENING ALREADY AS LOW AS 1500 FEET IN
ELEVATION...THAT IS TO SAY...ON THE SLOPE OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN
SC...AND THE TOP OF PARIS MTN. FORTUNATELY...IF THE PRECIP CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW...IT WILL BE WET AND PROBABLY MELT ON CONTACT WITH ROAD
SURFACES. NO REASON TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY AREA YET...BUT IF RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE...MIGHT HAVE TO ADD THE SC MOUNTAIN ZONES. THIS IS A
VERY DYNAMIC SITUATION.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
ALL MANNER OF LOW/MID/HIGH UPPER FORCING COMING INTO PLAY. HAVE
RAISED/EXPANDED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS/UPSTATE AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS DOWN FROM THE MTNS. A
MIX/CHANGEOVER ACTUALLY APPEARS A BIT LESS OF A POSSIBILITY OVER
METRO CLT AS THE MODEL TREND WAS A BIT WARMER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...AS WE ARE SEEING CURRENTLY OVER GSP...IF THE PRECIPITATION
FALLS WITH ENUF INTENSITY...SOME WET SNOW COULD MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PULL A QUICK EXIT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY...BRINGING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
AROUND TO A N TO NW DOWNSLOPE AFTER 15Z...WHICH SHOULD START TO
DIMINISH PRECIP POTENTIAL NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE/WRN UPSTATE. AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY...SOME WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION MAY LINGER OVER THE
WRN PIEDMONT INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD ALSO DIE OFF AND
MOVE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE MTNS WILL UNDERGO A
TRANSITION TO A MORE PURE NW FLOW PRECIP EVENT...WHICH WILL MAINLY
BE SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH PRECIP CHANCE NEAR THE TN BORDER...AND
TAPER IT OFF EASTWARD FROM THERE.

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT EVERYWHERE E OF THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NW FLOW SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE TN BORDER. THIS WILL REQUIRE
EXTENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD ABATE ENUF AROUND SUNSET THAT WE CAN KEEP THE SAME EXPIRATION
TIME ON THE WIND ADVISORY. AS FOR THE FREEZE WATCH...FCST LOWS ARE
SUCH THAT WE CAN ROLL THAT OVER TO A FREEZE WARNING. THE WARNING
WILL HAVE TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE NRN FOOTHILLS OF NC BASED ON THE
MIN TEMP FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SAT...A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE
CAROLINAS COAST 12Z SUN WILL LIFT NNE INTO THE MAINE COAST BY 00Z
MON...LEAVING THE CWA UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUN. H5
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE CONSIDERABLY BY MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
OUR REGION BY MON NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUN
AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES BY MONDAY. ANY LINGERING NW
PRECIP ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUN MORNING AS
DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN. WITH PREVAILING CAA NW FLOW ON SUN...TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA ON SUN NIGHT. THEREFORE...ANOTHER FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
OVER EAST OF THE MTNS FOR THIS PERIOD.

AS MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND TEMPS SHOULD
WARM UP BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BY MON AFTERNOON IN ITS WAKE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SAT...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THU...OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRI.

AT THE SURFACE...A MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE
STATES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TUE INTO WED AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION
LATE WED INTO THU...OFF TO OUR EAST BY THU NIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH LOW END CHANCE MANLY OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE MTNS WED AFTERNOON THRU THU MORNING.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. MODES SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE LIGHT NW PRECIP
(A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW) BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ALONG THE TN
BORDER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RN/SN
THERE THRU FRI MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT AROUND 3-5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TUE...WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WED. TEMPS THEN COOL
OFF BY 5-7 DEGREES BY FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...ADDITIONAL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NRN UPSTATE OF SC AND INTO THE CLT METRO AREA. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO
CONTINUE FALLING FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CEILING DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE NO LATER
THAN 10Z. WIND WILL REMAIN N AND WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BECOMING GUSTY ONCE THE SUN RISES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS ENUF TO TAP INTO SOME HIGHER WIND ALOFT. THE BIG QUESTION
THIS MORNING IS THE PRECIP TYPE. THE MODEL TREND ON THE 00Z RUN WAS
FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER. FCST SOUNDINGS NO
LONGER SUPPORT SNOW. SFC TEMPS DO NOT FALL BELOW ABOUT 39 DEGREES
EVEN ON THE COLDEST MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ELIMINATED THE RAIN SNOW MIX THAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS TAF. WILL
NEVER COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME WET SNOWFLAKES OR SLEET PELLETS IN
THIS TYPE OF SITUATION WITH A VERY DYNAMIC AND COLD CORE UPPER
LOW...BUT THE CHANCE IS ONLY SOMETHING LIKE 10 PERCENT...SO IT WAS
LEFT OUT OF THE 06Z TAF. WILL EVALUATE AGAIN WHEN THE 03Z SREF
GUIDANCE ARRIVES...AND THE REST OF THE FCST IS UPDATED. WE WILL
GET A BETTER IDEA AS THE PRECIP MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE SC. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT QUICK DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY.
CEILING SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AROUND 17Z AND SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BY MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT QUICKER THAN THE
TAF INDICATES...BUT CERTAINLY BY AROUND SUNSET...AT WHICH TIME THE
WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT. ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT KAVL...AND SHOULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR OR IFR RANGE. WENT WITH A TEMPO IFR FOR
THE SNOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF BASED ON RADAR TREND... AND
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE MOVED FORWARD IN TIME WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
AMEND. THE OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE LIGHT RAIN AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN...PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME WET SNOW FROM AROUND DAYBREAK
TO MID MORNING DURING THE MOST DYNAMIC PART OF THE LOW PASSAGE. THIS
WAS INCLUDED AS A TEMPO AT KHKY/KGSP/KGMU...BUT LEFT OUT OF KAND AS
DOWNSLOPE SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIP AROUND THE SAV RIVER BASIN. THE LOW
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT KAVL...BUT MOVE
OUT E OF THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ053-
     059-062>065-501-503-505.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     NCZ065-068-507>510.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     048>052-058.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>003.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>008-010>013-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 010613
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
213 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP WAS EXPANDING OVER UPSTATE SC
AND INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND WRN PIEDMONT...FOR WHICH THE MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE. THINK THE RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP
PROBABILITY LOOKS GOOD. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE ACTIVITY E OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE
LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR METRO CLT. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO INVADE THE
MTNS WITH PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE VALLEYS AS OF
0530Z...AS NOTED IN THE OBSERVATION AT AVL. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. NO CHANGES TO ANY WWA PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL RE-
EVALUATE WITH THE NEW FCST PACKAGE AROUND 08Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 1025 PM...AREA OF HEAVIER SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA IS MOVING
EAST OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHRA ARE FORMING OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW. EXPECT THE SHRA TO CONTINUE TO
FILL IN THRU THE NITE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL TSRA.
ACROSS THE MTNS...PRECIP CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH SNOW
LEVELS SLOWLY FALLING AS COLD AIR MOVES IN. HAVE UPDATED POP AND
TEMPS TO FOLLOW THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECT WINDY TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE MTNS.

AS OF 815 PM...AN AREA OF TSRA HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA AS THESE FEATURES HAVE
TAPPED THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE ERN UPSTATE AND
NC PIEDMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 10 PM... LEAVING SCT SHRA IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. BACK ACROSS THE MTNS...SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS COLD AIR FILTERS
IN BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS.

THE 18Z NAM HAS COME IN WITH WARMER LOW LEVELS THAN THE 12Z NAM
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE OTHER 12Z GUIDANCE
AND OTHER 18Z GUIDANCE. THE LATEST SREF SHOWS LITTLE CHC OF SNOW AT
CLT WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE WEST WHERE THE ATMOS IS COLDER. THAT
SAID...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW HEAVIER SHRA HELPING SOME SNOW TO
REACH THE GROUND OVER THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THINK THESE WILL BE
LIMITED. EVEN ACROSS THE WEST WHERE SNOW CHC IS BETTER...PRECIP SHUD
STILL BE A MIX WITH LITTLE CHC OF ACCUMS GIVEN THE GROUND TEMPS.

HAVE UPDATED TEMPS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS AND CURRENT GUIDANCE
TRENDS.

AS OF 425 PM...A QUICK UPDATE FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWERED
CURRENT TEMPS AND MAX TEMP AND RAISED DEW POINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBS. ALSO SLOWED THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN LINE WITH SAT PIX
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.

AS OF 245 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DEEPENING
CIRCULATION DIVING SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS H5
LOW CENTER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AS IT DEEPENS
FURTHER THIS EVENING AND THEN CROSSES THE EXTREME SRN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA BY DAYBREAK. DEEP LAYER QG FORCING WILL RAMP UP RAPIDLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN BECOME QUITE INTENSE FROM 06Z TO
12Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA.
MEANWHILE...SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH QUICKLY STARTING IN THE SMOKIES
THIS EVENING...WITH ZERO C 850 MB TEMPS WRAPPING INTO THE FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING SAT. A STRONG 3 TO 5
PVU SATURATED EQUIVALENT GEOSTROPHIC POTENTIAL VORT LOBE WILL MOVE
OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND DOWN THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AROUND 12Z
SAT. COMBINED WITH STEEP 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...WITH AN 850 MB LOW
CENTER BOMBING OUT JUST S OF KCLT...THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO CREATE A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF PRECIP OVER
THE ERN UPSTATE AND CLT METRO AREA. THE RATES THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES DESPITE THE SFC WARM
LAYER...UNDER BOTH THE DEFORMATION FORCING AND THE UPPER POT VOT.
ALL TOLD...THE MTN WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS WELL PLACED GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED QPF AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE LOW TEENS. THE ONLY
CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD GRAHAM CO. WILL ALSO POST A SNOW ADVISORY TIER
FARTHER TO THE SE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN...AS SNOW COULD MIX IT AT TIMES. THE H5 LOW
CENTER WILL TRANSITION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST QUICKLY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING WILL BE SLOWER
TO EXIT.

IN ADDITION...A 50 TO 55 KT 850 JET WILL PEAK ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
AND SRN/ERN ESCARPMENT DURING THE DAY SAT. HIGH END ADVISORY
CRITERIA GUSTS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN INTO THE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY.
NORMALLY...WE WRAP WIND HAZARDS INTO WINTER PRODUCTS...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT THAT WE WILL ISSUE A
SEPARATE NPW PRODUCT. ALSO...THE EXISTING FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE UNTOUCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH ITS BASE WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
SAT EVENING WITH A BOMBING SFC LOW EAST OF CAPE HATTERRAS. THE SFC
LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE SAT NIGHT ALLOWING COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
BEGIN RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SCT TO NUMEROUS NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE ONGONG SAT EVENING CONFINED MAINLY TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES....BUT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EASTWARD A DIMINISHING TREND
IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WITH THE NAM IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SAT EVENING BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN MIXED SAT NIGHT
BUT MIN TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW OVER
THE WESTERN UPSTATE INTO NE GA WHERE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT
HAS BEEN POSTED AS FROST/FREEZE HAS NOT BEEN TURNED OFF THERE. TO
THE EAST...MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO GO NO LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH MIN TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. THE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH IS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN SO TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW CLIMO. ALMOST IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OCNDITIONS SUN NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FRO FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. AS
THE HIGH MOVES TO THE SE ON MON...WINDS BECOMIE SW WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR MODERATING TEMPS...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
WITH THE IDEA THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THEN TRANSITION OFF THE EAST COAST BY MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
BY LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH WED
WITH TEMPS MODERATING SLOWLY TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON THU. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING MOISTURE FLUX AS IT APPROACHES
AND ANY SHOWERS MAY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ONLY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...ADDITIONAL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NRN UPSTATE OF SC AND INTO THE CLT METRO AREA. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO
CONTINUE FALLING FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CEILING DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE NO LATER
THAN 10Z. WIND WILL REMAIN N AND WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BECOMING GUSTY ONCE THE SUN RISES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS ENUF TO TAP INTO SOME HIGHER WIND ALOFT. THE BIG QUESTION
THIS MORNING IS THE PRECIP TYPE. THE MODEL TREND ON THE 00Z RUN WAS
FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER. FCST SOUNDINGS NO
LONGER SUPPORT SNOW. SFC TEMPS DO NOT FALL BELOW ABOUT 39 DEGREES
EVEN ON THE COLDEST MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ELIMINATED THE RAIN SNOW MIX THAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS TAF. WILL
NEVER COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME WET SNOWFLAKES OR SLEET PELLETS IN
THIS TYPE OF SITUATION WITH A VERY DYNAMIC AND COLD CORE UPPER
LOW...BUT THE CHANCE IS ONLY SOMETHING LIKE 10 PERCENT...SO IT WAS
LEFT OUT OF THE 06Z TAF. WILL EVALUATE AGAIN WHEN THE 03Z SREF
GUIDANCE ARRIVES...AND THE REST OF THE FCST IS UPDATED. THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OUT QUICK DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. CEILING
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AROUND 17Z AND SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT QUICKER THAN THE TAF
INDICATES...BUT CERTAINLY BY AROUND SUNSET...AT WHICH TIME THE WIND
GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT. ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT KAVL...AND SHOULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR OR IFR RANGE. WENT WITH A TEMPO IFR FOR
THE SNOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF BASED ON RADAR TREND... AND
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE MOVED FORWARD IN TIME WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
AMEND. THE OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE LIGHT RAIN AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN...PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME WET SNOW FROM AROUND DAYBREAK
TO MID MORNING DURING THE MOST DYNAMIC PART OF THE LOW PASSAGE. THIS
WAS INCLUDED AS A TEMPO AT KHKY/KGSP/KGMU...BUT LEFT OUT OF KAND AS
DOWNSLOPE SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIP AROUND THE SAV RIVER BASIN. THE LOW
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT KAVL...BUT MOVE
OUT E OF THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ053-
     059-062>065-501-503-505.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     NCZ065-068-507>510.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     048>052-058.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>003.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>008-010>013-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 010228
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1028 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
000
TTAA00 KCAE 311903

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...AREA OF HEAVIER SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA IS MOVING
EAST OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHRA ARE FORMING OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW. EXPECT THE SHRA TO CONTINUE TO
FILL IN THRU THE NITE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL TSRA.
ACROSS THE MTNS...PRECIP CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH SNOW
LEVELS SLOWLY FALLING AS COLD AIR MOVES IN. HAVE UPDATED POP AND
TEMPS TO FOLLOW THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECT WINDY TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE MTNS.

AS OF 815 PM...AN AREA OF TSRA HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA AS THESE FEATURES HAVE
TAPPED THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE ERN UPSTATE AND
NC PIEDMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 10 PM... LEAVING SCT SHRA IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. BACK ACROSS THE MTNS...SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS COLD AIR FILTERS
IN BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS.

THE 18Z NAM HAS COME IN WITH WARMER LOW LEVELS THAN THE 12Z NAM
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE OTHER 12Z GUIDANCE
AND OTHER 18Z GUIDANCE. THE LATEST SREF SHOWS LITTLE CHC OF SNOW AT
CLT WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE WEST WHERE THE ATMOS IS COLDER. THAT
SAID...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW HEAVIER SHRA HELPING SOME SNOW TO
REACH THE GROUND OVER THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THINK THESE WILL BE
LIMITED. EVEN ACROSS THE WEST WHERE SNOW CHC IS BETTER...PRECIP SHUD
STILL BE A MIX WITH LITTLE CHC OF ACCUMS GIVEN THE GROUND TEMPS.

HAVE UPDATED TEMPS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS AND CURRENT GUIDANCE
TRENDS.

AS OF 425 PM...A QUICK UPDATE FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWERED
CURRENT TEMPS AND MAX TEMP AND RAISED DEW POINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBS. ALSO SLOWED THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN LINE WITH SAT PIX
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.

AS OF 245 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DEEPENING
CIRCULATION DIVING SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS H5
LOW CENTER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AS IT DEEPENS
FURTHER THIS EVENING AND THEN CROSSES THE EXTREME SRN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA BY DAYBREAK. DEEP LAYER QG FORCING WILL RAMP UP RAPIDLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN BECOME QUITE INTENSE FROM 06Z TO
12Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA.
MEANWHILE...SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH QUICKLY STARTING IN THE SMOKIES
THIS EVENING...WITH ZERO C 850 MB TEMPS WRAPPING INTO THE FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING SAT. A STRONG 3 TO 5
PVU SATURATED EQUIVALENT GEOSTROPHIC POTENTIAL VORT LOBE WILL MOVE
OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND DOWN THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AROUND 12Z
SAT. COMBINED WITH STEEP 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...WITH AN 850 MB LOW
CENTER BOMBING OUT JUST S OF KCLT...THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO CREATE A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF PRECIP OVER
THE ERN UPSTATE AND CLT METRO AREA. THE RATES THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES DESPITE THE SFC WARM
LAYER...UNDER BOTH THE DEFORMATION FORCING AND THE UPPER POT VOT.
ALL TOLD...THE MTN WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS WELL PLACED GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED QPF AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE LOW TEENS. THE ONLY
CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD GRAHAM CO. WILL ALSO POST A SNOW ADVISORY TIER
FARTHER TO THE SE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN...AS SNOW COULD MIX IT AT TIMES. THE H5 LOW
CENTER WILL TRANSITION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST QUICKLY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING WILL BE SLOWER
TO EXIT.

IN ADDITION...A 50 TO 55 KT 850 JET WILL PEAK ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
AND SRN/ERN ESCARPMENT DURING THE DAY SAT. HIGH END ADVISORY
CRITERIA GUSTS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN INTO THE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY.
NORMALLY...WE WRAP WIND HAZARDS INTO WINTER PRODUCTS...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT THAT WE WILL ISSUE A
SEPARATE NPW PRODUCT. ALSO...THE EXISTING FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE UNTOUCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH ITS BASE WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
SAT EVENING WITH A BOMBING SFC LOW EAST OF CAPE HATTERRAS. THE SFC
LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE SAT NIGHT ALLOWING COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
BEGIN RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SCT TO NUMEROUS NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE ONGONG SAT EVENING CONFINED MAINLY TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES....BUT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EASTWARD A DIMINISHING TREND
IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WITH THE NAM IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SAT EVENING BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN MIXED SAT NIGHT
BUT MIN TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW OVER
THE WESTERN UPSTATE INTO NE GA WHERE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT
HAS BEEN POSTED AS FROST/FREEZE HAS NOT BEEN TURNED OFF THERE. TO
THE EAST...MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO GO NO LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH MIN TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. THE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH IS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN SO TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW CLIMO. ALMOST IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OCNDITIONS SUN NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FRO FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. AS
THE HIGH MOVES TO THE SE ON MON...WINDS BECOMIE SW WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR MODERATING TEMPS...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZCZC GSPWRKEXT 000
TTAA00 KCAE 310707

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
WITH THE IDEA THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THEN TRANSITION OFF THE EAST COAST BY MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY LATE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH WED WITH TEMPS
MODERATING SLOWLY TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON THU. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOSING MOISTURE FLUX AS IT APPROACHES AND ANY SHOWERS
MAY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ONLY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA. HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO FOR TSRA AND GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS TO COVER. THE TSRA SHUD BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY 02Z. THEN WINDS TURN NLY AND LOW VFR CIGS
PREVAIL WITH VCSH CONTINUING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY DROP TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT AS SHRA INCREASE IN COVERAGE. VSBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR
BUT ANY HEAVIER SHRA COULD BRIEFLY DROP IT TO MVFR. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS LOW LEVELS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID BUT HEAVIER SHRA SAT MORN
COULD ALLOW SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN AND MAKE IT TO THE SFC. HAVE
REPLACE THE PREVAILING MIX TO A PROB30 TO INDICATE THE LOWER
POTENTIAL. WINDS REMAIN NLY THRU THE PERIOD BUT BECOME VERY GUSTY ON
SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TSRA MUCH LESS LIKELY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...EXCEPT A BETTER CHC OF
MVFR VSBY AND SN MIXING IN. FOR KAVL...NLY GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND BECOME VERY GUSTY BY DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO SN OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU MID-MORNING
SAT WITH MVFR VSBY. CIGS ALSO DROP TO MVFR AND REMAIN THERE THRU MID
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

OUTLOOK...DRYING HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ053-059-
     062>065-501-503-505.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-035-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ065-068-507>510.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>052-058.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-053-
     063>065.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ001>003.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>008-010>013-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 010228 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1028 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...AREA OF HEAVIER SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA IS MOVING
EAST OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHRA ARE FORMING OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW. EXPECT THE SHRA TO CONTINUE TO
FILL IN THRU THE NITE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL TSRA.
ACROSS THE MTNS...PRECIP CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH SNOW
LEVELS SLOWLY FALLING AS COLD AIR MOVES IN. HAVE UPDATED POP AND
TEMPS TO FOLLOW THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECT WINDY TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE MTNS.

AS OF 815 PM...AN AREA OF TSRA HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA AS THESE FEATURES HAVE
TAPPED THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE ERN UPSTATE AND
NC PIEDMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 10 PM... LEAVING SCT SHRA IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. BACK ACROSS THE MTNS...SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS COLD AIR FILTERS
IN BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS.

THE 18Z NAM HAS COME IN WITH WARMER LOW LEVELS THAN THE 12Z NAM
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE OTHER 12Z GUIDANCE
AND OTHER 18Z GUIDANCE. THE LATEST SREF SHOWS LITTLE CHC OF SNOW AT
CLT WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE WEST WHERE THE ATMOS IS COLDER. THAT
SAID...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW HEAVIER SHRA HELPING SOME SNOW TO
REACH THE GROUND OVER THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THINK THESE WILL BE
LIMITED. EVEN ACROSS THE WEST WHERE SNOW CHC IS BETTER...PRECIP SHUD
STILL BE A MIX WITH LITTLE CHC OF ACCUMS GIVEN THE GROUND TEMPS.

HAVE UPDATED TEMPS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS AND CURRENT GUIDANCE
TRENDS.

AS OF 425 PM...A QUICK UPDATE FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWERED
CURRENT TEMPS AND MAX TEMP AND RAISED DEW POINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBS. ALSO SLOWED THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN LINE WITH SAT PIX
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.

AS OF 245 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DEEPENING
CIRCULATION DIVING SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS H5
LOW CENTER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AS IT DEEPENS
FURTHER THIS EVENING AND THEN CROSSES THE EXTREME SRN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA BY DAYBREAK. DEEP LAYER QG FORCING WILL RAMP UP RAPIDLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN BECOME QUITE INTENSE FROM 06Z TO
12Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA.
MEANWHILE...SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH QUICKLY STARTING IN THE SMOKIES
THIS EVENING...WITH ZERO C 850 MB TEMPS WRAPPING INTO THE FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING SAT. A STRONG 3 TO 5
PVU SATURATED EQUIVALENT GEOSTROPHIC POTENTIAL VORT LOBE WILL MOVE
OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND DOWN THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AROUND 12Z
SAT. COMBINED WITH STEEP 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...WITH AN 850 MB LOW
CENTER BOMBING OUT JUST S OF KCLT...THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO CREATE A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF PRECIP OVER
THE ERN UPSTATE AND CLT METRO AREA. THE RATES THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES DESPITE THE SFC WARM
LAYER...UNDER BOTH THE DEFORMATION FORCING AND THE UPPER POT VOT.
ALL TOLD...THE MTN WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS WELL PLACED GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED QPF AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE LOW TEENS. THE ONLY
CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD GRAHAM CO. WILL ALSO POST A SNOW ADVISORY TIER
FARTHER TO THE SE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN...AS SNOW COULD MIX IT AT TIMES. THE H5 LOW
CENTER WILL TRANSITION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST QUICKLY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING WILL BE SLOWER
TO EXIT.

IN ADDITION...A 50 TO 55 KT 850 JET WILL PEAK ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
AND SRN/ERN ESCARPMENT DURING THE DAY SAT. HIGH END ADVISORY
CRITERIA GUSTS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN INTO THE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY.
NORMALLY...WE WRAP WIND HAZARDS INTO WINTER PRODUCTS...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT THAT WE WILL ISSUE A
SEPARATE NPW PRODUCT. ALSO...THE EXISTING FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE UNTOUCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH ITS BASE WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
SAT EVENING WITH A BOMBING SFC LOW EAST OF CAPE HATTERRAS. THE SFC
LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE SAT NIGHT ALLOWING COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
BEGIN RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SCT TO NUMEROUS NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE ONGONG SAT EVENING CONFINED MAINLY TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES....BUT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EASTWARD A DIMINISHING TREND
IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WITH THE NAM IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SAT EVENING BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN MIXED SAT NIGHT
BUT MIN TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW OVER
THE WESTERN UPSTATE INTO NE GA WHERE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT
HAS BEEN POSTED AS FROST/FREEZE HAS NOT BEEN TURNED OFF THERE. TO
THE EAST...MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO GO NO LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH MIN TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. THE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH IS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN SO TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW CLIMO. ALMOST IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OCNDITIONS SUN NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FRO FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. AS
THE HIGH MOVES TO THE SE ON MON...WINDS BECOMIE SW WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR MODERATING TEMPS...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
WITH THE IDEA THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THEN TRANSITION OFF THE EAST COAST BY MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
BY LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH WED
WITH TEMPS MODERATING SLOWLY TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON THU. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING MOISTURE FLUX AS IT APPROACHES
AND ANY SHOWERS MAY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ONLY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA. HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO FOR TSRA AND GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS TO COVER. THE TSRA SHUD BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY 02Z. THEN WINDS TURN NLY AND LOW VFR CIGS
PREVAIL WITH VCSH CONTINUING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY DROP TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT AS SHRA INCREASE IN COVERAGE. VSBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR
BUT ANY HEAVIER SHRA COULD BRIEFLY DROP IT TO MVFR. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS LOW LEVELS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID BUT HEAVIER SHRA SAT MORN
COULD ALLOW SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN AND MAKE IT TO THE SFC. HAVE
REPLACE THE PREVAILING MIX TO A PROB30 TO INDICATE THE LOWER
POTENTIAL. WINDS REMAIN NLY THRU THE PERIOD BUT BECOME VERY GUSTY ON
SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TSRA MUCH LESS LIKELY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...EXCEPT A BETTER CHC OF
MVFR VSBY AND SN MIXING IN. FOR KAVL...NLY GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND BECOME VERY GUSTY BY DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO SN OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU MID-MORNING
SAT WITH MVFR VSBY. CIGS ALSO DROP TO MVFR AND REMAIN THERE THRU MID
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

OUTLOOK...DRYING HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ053-059-
     062>065-501-503-505.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-035-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ065-068-507>510.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>052-058.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-053-
     063>065.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ001>003.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>008-010>013-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 010015
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
815 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM...AN AREA OF TSRA HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA AS THESE FEATURES HAVE
TAPPED THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE ERN UPSTATE AND
NC PIEDMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 10 PM... LEAVING SCT SHRA IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. BACK ACROSS THE MTNS...SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS COLD AIR FILTERS
IN BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS.

THE 18Z NAM HAS COME IN WITH WARMER LOW LEVELS THAN THE 12Z NAM
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE OTHER 12Z GUIDANCE
AND OTHER 18Z GUIDANCE. THE LATEST SREF SHOWS LITTLE CHC OF SNOW AT
CLT WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE WEST WHERE THE ATMOS IS COLDER. THAT
SAID...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW HEAVIER SHRA HELPING SOME SNOW TO
REACH THE GROUND OVER THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THINK THESE WILL BE
LIMITED. EVEN ACROSS THE WEST WHERE SNOW CHC IS BETTER...PRECIP SHUD
STILL BE A MIX WITH LITTLE CHC OF ACCUMS GIVEN THE GROUND TEMPS.

HAVE UPDATED TEMPS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS AND CURRENT GUIDANCE
TRENDS.

AS OF 425 PM...A QUICK UPDATE FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWERED
CURRENT TEMPS AND MAX TEMP AND RAISED DEW POINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBS. ALSO SLOWED THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN LINE WITH SAT PIX
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.

AS OF 245 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DEEPENING
CIRCULATION DIVING SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS H5
LOW CENTER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AS IT DEEPENS
FURTHER THIS EVENING AND THEN CROSSES THE EXTREME SRN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA BY DAYBREAK. DEEP LAYER QG FORCING WILL RAMP UP RAPIDLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN BECOME QUITE INTENSE FROM 06Z TO
12Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA.
MEANWHILE...SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH QUICKLY STARTING IN THE SMOKIES
THIS EVENING...WITH ZERO C 850 MB TEMPS WRAPPING INTO THE FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING SAT. A STRONG 3 TO 5
PVU SATURATED EQUIVALENT GEOSTROPHIC POTENTIAL VORT LOBE WILL MOVE
OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND DOWN THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AROUND 12Z
SAT. COMBINED WITH STEEP 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...WITH AN 850 MB LOW
CENTER BOMBING OUT JUST S OF KCLT...THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO CREATE A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF PRECIP OVER
THE ERN UPSTATE AND CLT METRO AREA. THE RATES THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES DESPITE THE SFC WARM
LAYER...UNDER BOTH THE DEFORMATION FORCING AND THE UPPER POT VOT.
ALL TOLD...THE MTN WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS WELL PLACED GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED QPF AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE LOW TEENS. THE ONLY
CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD GRAHAM CO. WILL ALSO POST A SNOW ADVISORY TIER
FARTHER TO THE SE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN...AS SNOW COULD MIX IT AT TIMES. THE H5 LOW
CENTER WILL TRANSITION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST QUICKLY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING WILL BE SLOWER
TO EXIT.

IN ADDITION...A 50 TO 55 KT 850 JET WILL PEAK ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
AND SRN/ERN ESCARPMENT DURING THE DAY SAT. HIGH END ADVISORY
CRITERIA GUSTS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN INTO THE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY.
NORMALLY...WE WRAP WIND HAZARDS INTO WINTER PRODUCTS...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT THAT WE WILL ISSUE A
SEPARATE NPW PRODUCT. ALSO...THE EXISTING FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE UNTOUCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH ITS BASE WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
SAT EVENING WITH A BOMBING SFC LOW EAST OF CAPE HATTERRAS. THE SFC
LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE SAT NIGHT ALLOWING COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
BEGIN RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SCT TO NUMEROUS NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE ONGONG SAT EVENING CONFINED MAINLY TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES....BUT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EASTWARD A DIMINISHING TREND
IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WITH THE NAM IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SAT EVENING BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN MIXED SAT NIGHT
BUT MIN TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW OVER
THE WESTERN UPSTATE INTO NE GA WHERE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT
HAS BEEN POSTED AS FROST/FREEZE HAS NOT BEEN TURNED OFF THERE. TO
THE EAST...MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO GO NO LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH MIN TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. THE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH IS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN SO TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW CLIMO. ALMOST IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OCNDITIONS SUN NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FRO FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. AS
THE HIGH MOVES TO THE SE ON MON...WINDS BECOMIE SW WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR MODERATING TEMPS...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
WITH THE IDEA THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THEN TRANSITION OFF THE EAST COAST BY MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
BY LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH WED
WITH TEMPS MODERATING SLOWLY TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON THU. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING MOISTURE FLUX AS IT APPROACHES
AND ANY SHOWERS MAY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ONLY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA. HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO FOR TSRA AND GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS TO COVER. THE TSRA SHUD BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY 02Z. THEN WINDS TURN NLY AND LOW VFR CIGS
PREVAIL WITH VCSH CONTINUING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY DROP TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT AS SHRA INCREASE IN COVERAGE. VSBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR
BUT ANY HEAVIER SHRA COULD BRIEFLY DROP IT TO MVFR. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS LOW LEVELS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID BUT HEAVIER SHRA SAT MORN
COULD ALLOW SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN AND MAKE IT TO THE SFC. HAVE
REPLACE THE PREVAILING MIX TO A PROB30 TO INDICATE THE LOWER
POTENTIAL. WINDS REMAIN NLY THRU THE PERIOD BUT BECOME VERY GUSTY ON
SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TSRA MUCH LESS LIKELY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...EXCEPT A BETTER CHC OF
MVFR VSBY AND SN MIXING IN. FOR KAVL...NLY GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND BECOME VERY GUSTY BY DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY.
EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO SN OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU MID-MORNING
SAT WITH MVFR VSBY. CIGS ALSO DROP TO MVFR AND REMAIN THERE THRU MID
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

OUTLOOK...DRYING HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ053-059-
     062>065-501-503-505.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ065-068-507>510.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>052-058.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-053-
     063>065.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ001>003.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>008-010>013-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 312031
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
431 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...A QUICK UPDATE FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWERED
CURRENT TEMPS AND MAX TEMP AND RAISED DEW POINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBS. ALSO SLOWED THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN LINE WITH SAT PIX
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.

AS OF 245 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DEEPENING
CIRCULATION DIVING SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS H5
LOW CENTER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AS IT DEEPENS
FURTHER THIS EVENING AND THEN CROSSES THE EXTREME SRN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA BY DAYBREAK. DEEP LAYER QG FORCING WILL RAMP UP RAPIDLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN BECOME QUITE INTENSE FROM 06Z TO
12Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA.
MEANWHILE...SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH QUICKLY STARTING IN THE SMOKIES
THIS EVENING...WITH ZERO C 850 MB TEMPS WRAPPING INTO THE FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING SAT. A STRONG 3 TO 5
PVU SATURATED EQUIVALENT GEOSTROPHIC POTENTIAL VORT LOBE WILL MOVE
OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND DOWN THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AROUND 12Z
SAT. COMBINED WITH STEEP 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...WITH AN 850 MB LOW
CENTER BOMBING OUT JUST S OF KCLT...THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO CREATE A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF PRECIP OVER
THE ERN UPSTATE AND CLT METRO AREA. THE RATES THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES DESPITE THE SFC WARM
LAYER...UNDER BOTH THE DEFORMATION FORCING AND THE UPPER POT VOT.
ALL TOLD...THE MTN WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS WELL PLACED GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED QPF AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE LOW TEENS. THE ONLY
CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD GRAHAM CO. WILL ALSO POST A SNOW ADVISORY TIER
FARTHER TO THE SE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN...AS SNOW COULD MIX IT AT TIMES. THE H5 LOW
CENTER WILL TRANSITION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST QUICKLY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING WILL BE SLOWER
TO EXIT.

IN ADDITION...A 50 TO 55 KT 850 JET WILL PEAK ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
AND SRN/ERN ESCARPMENT DURING THE DAY SAT. HIGH END ADVISORY
CRITERIA GUSTS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN INTO THE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY.
NORMALLY...WE WRAP WIND HAZARDS INTO WINTER PRODUCTS...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT THAT WE WILL ISSUE A
SEPARATE NPW PRODUCT. ALSO...THE EXISTING FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE UNTOUCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH ITS BASE WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
SAT EVENING WITH A BOMBING SFC LOW EAST OF CAPE HATTERRAS. THE SFC
LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE SAT NIGHT ALLOWING COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
BEGIN RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SCT TO NUMEROUS NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE ONGONG SAT EVENING CONFINED MAINLY TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES....BUT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EASTWARD A DIMINISHING TREND
IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WITH THE NAM IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SAT EVENING BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN
MIXED ENOUGH SO THAT MIN TEMPS GO NO LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S OUTSIDE OF MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH MIN TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S. THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST AND SETTLE OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH IS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN SO TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW CLIMO. ALMOST IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
OCNDITIONS SUN NIGHT WILL ALLOW FRO FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE SE ON MON...WINDS
BECOMIE SW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING TEMPS...BUT STILL A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
WITH THE IDEA THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THEN TRANSITION OFF THE EAST COAST BY MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
BY LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH WED
WITH TEMPS MODERATING SLOWLY TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON THU. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING MOISTURE FLUX AS IT APPROACHES
AND ANY SHOWERS MAY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ONLY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR CLOUDS REMAIN FEW TO SCT ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
NOT INCREASED IN COVERAGE. THEREFORE...STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY LOW
VFR CIGS UNTIL EVENING. CIGS START HEADING SOUTH WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW AGAIN THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE DEEP
LAYER Q VECTOR FORCING ARRIVING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH A SFC
BASED WARM LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING SAT
MORNING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE PRECIP TO MIX OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. WILL FEATURE
MAINLY MVFR VSBY/CIGS DURING THAT PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME NW AND GUSTY STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE INCREASING SHOWERS FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. CIGS WILL TRANSITION DOWN QUICKLY TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...WITH SNOW LEVELS CRASHING TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVL
STARTING 04Z TO 07Z. THE FEELING IS THAT UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS
AT THE SFC ACROSS THE FOOTHILL TAFS AS WELL SAT MORNING. EXPECT
MAINLY LINGERING MVFR CIGS UNTIL THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. AN INCREASING NW FLOW GRADIENT WILL ALSO GENERATE
ROBUST WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY AT KAVL WHERE SOME 40KT WILL NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION BY MID DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRYING HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ053-059-062>065-501-503-505.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ065-068-507>510.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR NCZ033-049-050-053-063>065.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ001>003.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>008-010>013-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...HG/RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311903
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DEEPENING
CIRCULATION DIVING SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
H5 LOW CENTER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AS IT
DEEPENS FURTHER THIS EVENING AND THEN CROSSES THE EXTREME SRN
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA BY DAYBREAK. DEEP LAYER QG FORCING WILL
RAMP UP RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN BECOME QUITE
INTENSE FROM 06Z TO 12Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWFA. MEANWHILE...SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH QUICKLY STARTING
IN THE SMOKIES THIS EVENING...WITH ZERO C 850 MB TEMPS WRAPPING
INTO THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING
SAT. A STRONG 3 TO 5 PVU SATURATED EQUIVALENT GEOSTROPHIC
POTENTIAL VORT LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND DOWN
THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. COMBINED WITH STEEP 850 TO
500 MB LAPSE RATES...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN
ADDITION...WITH AN 850 MB LOW CENTER BOMBING OUT JUST S OF
KCLT...THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO CREATE
A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF PRECIP OVER THE ERN UPSTATE AND CLT METRO
AREA. THE RATES THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW AT TIMES DESPITE THE SFC WARM LAYER...UNDER BOTH THE
DEFORMATION FORCING AND THE UPPER POT VOT. ALL TOLD...THE MTN
WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS WELL PLACED GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED QPF
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE LOW TEENS. THE ONLY CHANGE WILL
BE TO ADD GRAHAM CO. WILL ALSO POST A SNOW ADVISORY TIER FARTHER
TO THE SE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT REMAIN
QUITE UNCERTAIN...AS SNOW COULD MIX IT AT TIMES. THE H5 LOW CENTER
WILL TRANSITION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST QUICKLY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING WILL BE SLOWER TO
EXIT.

IN ADDITION...A 50 TO 55 KT 850 JET WILL PEAK ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
AND SRN/ERN ESCARPMENT DURING THE DAY SAT. HIGH END ADVISORY
CRITERIA GUSTS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN INTO THE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY.
NORMALLY...WE WRAP WIND HAZARDS INTO WINTER PRODUCTS...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT THAT WE WILL ISSUE A
SEPARATE NPW PRODUCT. ALSO...THE EXISTING FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE UNTOUCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH ITS BASE WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
SAT EVENING WITH A BOMBING SFC LOW EAST OF CAPE HATTERRAS. THE SFC
LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE SAT NIGHT ALLOWING COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
BEGIN RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SCT TO NUMEROUS NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE ONGONG SAT EVENING CONFINED MAINLY TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES....BUT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EASTWARD A DIMINISHING TREND
IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WITH THE NAM IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SAT EVENING BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN
MIXED ENOUGH SO THAT MIN TEMPS GO NO LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S OUTSIDE OF MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH MIN TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S. THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST AND SETTLE OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH IS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN SO TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW CLIMO. ALMOST IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
OCNDITIONS SUN NIGHT WILL ALLOW FRO FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE SE ON MON...WINDS
BECOMIE SW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING TEMPS...BUT STILL A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
WITH THE IDEA THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THEN TRANSITION OFF THE EAST COAST BY MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
BY LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH WED
WITH TEMPS MODERATING SLOWLY TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON THU. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING MOISTURE FLUX AS IT APPROACHES
AND ANY SHOWERS MAY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ONLY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PESKY MVFR/LOWER VFR CLOUDS CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF
KCLT THIS AFTN AND SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL CONTINUE BEFORE CIGS
START HEADING SOUTH WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE STRONG
LOW AGAIN THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR FORCING
ARRIVING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH A SFC BASED WARM LAYER
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING SAT MORNING FROM
THE UPPER LOW AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE PRECIP
TO MIX OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. WILL FEATURE MAINLY MVFR
VSBY/CIGS DURING THAT PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME NW
AND GUSTY STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE INCREASING SHOWERS FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. CIGS WILL TRANSITION DOWN QUICKLY TO MVFR THIS
EVENING...WITH SNOW LEVELS CRASHING TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVL
STARTING 04Z TO 07Z. THE FEELING IS THAT UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS
AT THE SFC ACROSS THE FOOTHILL TAFS AS WELL SAT MORNING. EXPECT
MAINLY LINGERING MVFR CIGS UNTIL THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. AN INCREASING NW FLOW GRADIENT WILL ALSO GENERATE
ROBUST WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY AT KAVL WHERE SOME 40KT WILL NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION BY MID DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRYING HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ053-059-062>065-501-503-505.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ065-068-507>510.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR NCZ033-049-050-053-063>065.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ001>003.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ001>008-010>013-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311456
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1056 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT...AND A STRONG MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK QUICKLY NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS TO THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD SHORTWAVE DIVING
INTO THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN PLAYER AT 500 MB IS DIGGING INTO IN/IL. THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY...EXCEPT THAT WESTERN MTN POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASED ALONG THE TN BORDER THROUGH MIDDAY WITH
THE EARLY UPPER WAVES.

OTHERWISE...THE STRONGLY DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT TO A POSITION OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AT
DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. THIS COMPACT SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE ALL MANNER OF
LOW/MID/UPPER FORCING THAT COMES INTO PLAY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY DEEP...SO THE POP RAMPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE MTNS THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND WRN PIEDMONT...AND EVENTUALLY
CATEGORICAL OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT...WHERE FORCING IS MAXIMIZED ON
THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP WAS LIMITED TO THE CHC RANGE
OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA AS SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY
INHIBIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.

THE DISTRIBUTION OF PARTIAL THICKNESS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION THIS EVENING
SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM RIDGETOPS
DOWN TO THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE NC MTNS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EAST OF THE MTNS...THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN
TEMP AND DEWPT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY PERHAPS BECAUSE THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL WAS WETTER...WHICH WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED. THAT SHOULD BUMP
THE SFC WET BULB TEMPS UP A BIT MORE...MEANING LESS OF A CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY SNOW E OF THE FOOTHILLS THRU 12Z SATURDAY. WILL GIVE A
NOD TO THE COOLER NAM BUFKIT PROFILES THAT SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY OF
A WET SNOWSHOWER AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND WRN
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS MIGHT NOT YET MAKE THE CUT AND APPEAR IN THE
FCST. SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET OVER THE MTNS MAINLY NEAR THE
TN BORDER...WITH UPWARDS OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE. SOME OF
THE SNOW MAY WRAP AROUND INTO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND NE
GEORGIA AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THOSE LOCATIONS HAVE THE LOWEST
PROBABILITY OF ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...AT THE LOW END OF
THE CHC RANGE. AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED YET FOR THE REST OF
THE SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND NE GEORGIA...INSTEAD WILL TAKE A LOOK AT
THE MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR MORE GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE.

FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN OUT FOR TONIGHT WITH THE MTN GROWING SEASON
ENDING TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA 12Z SAT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW IN
ITS WAKE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MTNS ON EARLY SAT AS BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL TEMPS OUT SIDE OF THE MTNS APPEAR
A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED WX
GRIDS TO HIGHLIGHT MORE OF LIQUID PRECIP OVER THE PIEDMONT. STILL
WITH COLDER TEMPS OVER THE MTNS...EXPECT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR THROUGH EARLY SUN MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. TOTAL SNOWFALL
FROM THIS EVENT WILL RANGE FROM 8" OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TO
12" OVER THE SMOKIES. ELSEWHERE OVER THE NC MTNS WILL SEE BETWEEN
1 AND 2 INCHES OF SNOW. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A
WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES AND A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OVER BUNCOMBE...NORTHERN HALF OF JACKSON...AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES.

GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20-40 MPH WILL DEVELOP ON SAT IN LIGHT OF
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OFF THE SE COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...POPS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL (AROUND 15-20 BELOW NORMAL). SUN LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. NW SNOW OVER THE NC MTNS WILL
TAPER OFF BY EARLY SUN AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN. MORNING LOW TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD...RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT TO 20S IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. WITH THE PRESENCE OF DECENT NW
CAA WINDS...WIND CHILL READING WILL REMAIN IN THE 10S IN THE MTNS
WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...TEMPS ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER
THAN SAT...BUT STILL LOOKING AROUND 7-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AND OFF TO THE EAST COAST BY TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN
SET UP BY TUE NIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
THU FOLLOWED BY NWLY FLOW THU NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES MON
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND WED
NIGHT AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY FRI MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL DRY OUT AS IT REACHES THE MTNS. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER DURING THE
FROPA. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM UP TO NEAR CLIMO BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BRIEF MORNING MVFR CIGS SCATTERED OUT VERY QUICKLY WITH
HEATING...SO VFR WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND MAY CHANGE BETWEEN NW AND SW OFTEN. AT THAT
TIME... A LOW CLOUD CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING LOW...BUT STILL VFR. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE CLT METRO
AREA AROUND SUNSET. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH STILL A VFR CATEGORY
VISIBILITY...AFTER 02Z. WIND AT THAT TIME SHOULD SETTLE INTO A N
COMPONENT. NO ISSUES WITH PRECIP TYPE UNTIL AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY MIXING IN AT TIMES EARLY SAT
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID MORNING. LOW VFR AND MID CLOUDS INCREASE THRU THE DAY WITH LOW
VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AT KAVL. WINDS TURN WSW THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS
REMAIN NLY AT KAVL. KAVL ALSO HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY SHRA BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS INCLUDED AS A VCSH AT THIS TIME.
THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MTNS BY SUNSET. HAVE INCLUDED
THE RAIN PREVAILING AFTER 02Z AT KAVL...AT WHICH TIME THE CEILING
SHOULD DROP TO MVFR. PRELIMINARY INDICATION IS THAT PRECIP COULD
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVL AS EARLY AS 05Z.  A SIMILAR
PROGRESSION IS NOTED AT KHKY...BUT PRECIP WAS KEPT LIQUID. OTHER TAF
SITES ONLY HAVE A VCSH AFTER 02Z OR 03Z...OWING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VFR BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR NCZ033-049-050-053-063>065.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ053-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG/PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311121
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
721 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT...AND A STRONG MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK QUICKLY NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CANADIAN AIR MASS TO THE
REGION INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM...FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID
CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE W. TEMP/RH TRENDS STILL LOOK GOOD.
MIN TEMPS ALSO ON TRACK. NO CHANGES FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THEN THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING...

THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET ENOUGH...AS A
COLLECTION OF SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROF AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE PASSAGE OF THESE WAVES
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S E OF THE MTNS WITH 50S ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. THE SITUATION WILL GO RAPIDLY DOWNHILL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF A DEEPENING UPPER LOW.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY SMALL...IT LOOKS WICKEDLY DYNAMIC
AS IT DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT TO A POSITION
OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AT DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. THIS COMPACT SYSTEM
SHOULD HAVE ALL MANNER OF LOW/MID/UPPER FORCING THAT COMES INTO PLAY
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. YOU NAME IT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE
IT...IN SPADES. MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY DEEP...SO THE POP
RAMPS UP TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE MTNS FRIDAY EVE...AND INTO THE
LIKELY RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND WRN PIEDMONT...AND
EVENTUALLY CATEGORICAL OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT...WHERE FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED ON THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP WAS LIMITED TO THE
CHC RANGE OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA AS SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
MAY INHIBIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.

IT IS PROBABLY A GOOD THING THAT IT IS NOT JANUARY...OR ELSE IT
MIGHT BE REALLY INTERESTING. NEVERTHELESS... THE DISTRIBUTION OF
PARTIAL THICKNESS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE DECIDEDLY
WINTER-LIKE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD ALLOW
PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM RIDGETOPS DOWN TO THE
VALLEYS ACROSS THE NC MTNS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EAST OF THE
MTNS...THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN TEMP AND
DEWPT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY PERHAPS BECAUSE THE OPERATIONAL MODEL WAS
WETTER...WHICH WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED. THAT SHOULD BUMP THE SFC WET
BULB TEMPS UP A BIT MORE...MEANING LESS OF A CHANCE OF SEEING ANY
SNOW E OF THE FOOTHILLS THRU 12Z SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THE 21Z
SREF...WHICH AT THIS TIME WAS THE MOST RECENT...THAT SHOWS PTYPE
OVERWHELMINGLY IN FAVOR OF RAIN. THAT BEING SAID...WILL GIVE A NOD
TO THE COOLER NAM BUFKIT PROFILES THAT SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY OF A
WET SNOWSHOWER AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND WRN
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS MIGHT NOT YET MAKE THE CUT AND APPEAR IN THE
FCST. SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET OVER THE MTNS MAINLY NEAR THE
TN BORDER...WITH UPWARDS OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE. SOME OF
THE SNOW MAY WRAP AROUND INTO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND NE
GEORGIA AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THOSE LOCATIONS HAVE THE LOWEST
PROBABILITY OF ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...AT THE LOW END OF
THE CHC RANGE. AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED YET FOR THE REST OF
THE SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND NE GEORGIA...INSTEAD WILL TAKE A LOOK AT
THE MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR MORE GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE.

ONE FINAL ITEM TO ADDRESS...IT HAS COME TO MY ATTENTION THAT SEVERAL
ZONES ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A FREEZE YET THIS
SEASON. ALTHOUGH THE MOUNTAIN ZONES ARE TYPICALLY SHUT OFF FOR THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM ON 1 NOVEMBER...WHICH IS SATURDAY...THINK IT
PRUDENT AND APPROPRIATE TO ISSUE THE FREEZE WARNING JUST TO CLOSE
OUT THE SEASON...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE SNOW IN THE FCST ACROSS SOME OF
THESE ZONES. WILL ALSO PUT RABUN COUNTY GA IN THE FREEZE WARNING
OWING TO LOWER MIN TEMP TREND IN THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA 12Z SAT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW IN
ITS WAKE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MTNS ON EARLY SAT AS BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL TEMPS OUT SIDE OF THE MTNS APPEAR
A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED WX
GRIDS TO HIGHLIGHT MORE OF LIQUID PRECIP OVER THE PIEDMONT. STILL
WITH COLDER TEMPS OVER THE MTNS...EXPECT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR THROUGH EARLY SUN MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. TOTAL SNOWFALL
FROM THIS EVENT WILL RANGE FROM 8" OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TO
12" OVER THE SMOKIES. ELSEWHERE OVER THE NC MTNS WILL SEE BETWEEN
1 AND 2 INCHES OF SNOW. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A
WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES AND A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OVER BUNCOMBE...NORTHERN HALF OF JACKSON...AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES.

GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20-40 MPH WILL DEVELOP ON SAT IN LIGHT OF
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OFF THE SE COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...POPS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL (AROUND 15-20 BELOW NORMAL). SUN LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. NW SNOW OVER THE NC MTNS WILL
TAPER OFF BY EARLY SUN AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN. MORNING LOW TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD...RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT TO 20S IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. WITH THE PRESENCE OF DECENT NW
CAA WINDS...WIND CHILL READING WILL REMAIN IN THE 10S IN THE MTNS
WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...TEMPS ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER
THAN SAT...BUT STILL LOOKING AROUND 7-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AND OFF TO THE EAST COAST BY TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN
SET UP BY TUE NIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
THU FOLLOWED BY NWLY FLOW THU NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES MON
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND WED
NIGHT AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY FRI MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL DRY OUT AS IT REACHES THE MTNS. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER DURING THE
FROPA. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM UP TO NEAR CLIMO BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHO THE SITUATION WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL AT THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD. UNTIL THEN...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING WITH A LIGHT NE WIND...FOLLOWED BY THICKENING MOSTLY
ALTOCU CEILINGS. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND MAY CHANGE BETWEEN NW AND SW OFTEN. AT THAT TIME...
A LOW CLOUD CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW...BUT STILL VFR. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE CLT METRO AREA
AROUND SUNSET. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PREVAILING
LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH STILL A VFR CATEGORY VISIBILITY...AFTER 02Z.
WIND AT THAT TIME SHOULD SETTLE INTO A N COMPONENT. NO ISSUES WITH
PRECIP TYPE UNTIL AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING. LOW VFR AND MID CLOUDS INCREASE THRU THE DAY FRI WITH LOW
VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AT KAVL. WINDS TURN WSW FRI AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS REMAIN NLY AT
KAVL. KAVL ALSO HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY SHRA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS INCLUDED AS A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THE STEADIER
RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MTNS BY SUNSET. HAVE INCLUDED THE RAIN
PREVAILING AFTER 02Z AT KAVL...AT WHICH TIME THE CEILING SHOULD DROP
TO MVFR. PRELIMINARY INDICATION IS THAT PRECIP COULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVL AS EARLY AS 05Z.  A SIMILAR PROGRESSION IS
NOTED AT KHKY...BUT PRECIP WAS KEPT LIQUID. OTHER TAF SITES ONLY
HAVE A VCSH AFTER 02Z OR 03Z...OWING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VFR BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ053-058-059.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR NCZ049-050-053-063>065.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 310938
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT...AND A STRONG MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK QUICKLY NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CANADIAN AIR MASS TO THE
REGION INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM...FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID
CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE W. TEMP/RH TRENDS STILL LOOK GOOD.
MIN TEMPS ALSO ON TRACK. NO CHANGES FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THEN THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING...

THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET ENOUGH...AS A
COLLECTION OF SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROF AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE PASSAGE OF THESE WAVES
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S E OF THE MTNS WITH 50S ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. THE SITUATION WILL GO RAPIDLY DOWNHILL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF A DEEPENING UPPER LOW.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY SMALL...IT LOOKS WICKEDLY DYNAMIC
AS IT DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT TO A POSITION
OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AT DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. THIS COMPACT SYSTEM
SHOULD HAVE ALL MANNER OF LOW/MID/UPPER FORCING THAT COMES INTO PLAY
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. YOU NAME IT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE
IT...IN SPADES. MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY DEEP...SO THE POP
RAMPS UP TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE MTNS FRIDAY EVE...AND INTO THE
LIKELY RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND WRN PIEDMONT...AND
EVENTUALLY CATEGORICAL OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT...WHERE FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED ON THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP WAS LIMITED TO THE
CHC RANGE OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA AS SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
MAY INHIBIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.

IT IS PROBABLY A GOOD THING THAT IT IS NOT JANUARY...OR ELSE IT
MIGHT BE REALLY INTERESTING. NEVERTHELESS... THE DISTRIBUTION OF
PARTIAL THICKNESS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE DECIDEDLY
WINTER-LIKE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD ALLOW
PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM RIDGETOPS DOWN TO THE
VALLEYS ACROSS THE NC MTNS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EAST OF THE
MTNS...THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN TEMP AND
DEWPT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY PERHAPS BECAUSE THE OPERATIONAL MODEL WAS
WETTER...WHICH WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED. THAT SHOULD BUMP THE SFC WET
BULB TEMPS UP A BIT MORE...MEANING LESS OF A CHANCE OF SEEING ANY
SNOW E OF THE FOOTHILLS THRU 12Z SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THE 21Z
SREF...WHICH AT THIS TIME WAS THE MOST RECENT...THAT SHOWS PTYPE
OVERWHELMINGLY IN FAVOR OF RAIN. THAT BEING SAID...WILL GIVE A NOD
TO THE COOLER NAM BUFKIT PROFILES THAT SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY OF A
WET SNOWSHOWER AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND WRN
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS MIGHT NOT YET MAKE THE CUT AND APPEAR IN THE
FCST. SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET OVER THE MTNS MAINLY NEAR THE
TN BORDER...WITH UPWARDS OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE. SOME OF
THE SNOW MAY WRAP AROUND INTO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND NE
GEORGIA AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THOSE LOCATIONS HAVE THE LOWEST
PROBABILITY OF ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...AT THE LOW END OF
THE CHC RANGE. AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED YET FOR THE REST OF
THE SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND NE GEORGIA...INSTEAD WILL TAKE A LOOK AT
THE MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR MORE GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE.

ONE FINAL ITEM TO ADDRESS...IT HAS COME TO MY ATTENTION THAT SEVERAL
ZONES ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A FREEZE YET THIS
SEASON. ALTHOUGH THE MOUNTAIN ZONES ARE TYPICALLY SHUT OFF FOR THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM ON 1 NOVEMBER...WHICH IS SATURDAY...THINK IT
PRUDENT AND APPROPRIATE TO ISSUE THE FREEZE WARNING JUST TO CLOSE
OUT THE SEASON...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE SNOW IN THE FCST ACROSS SOME OF
THESE ZONES. WILL ALSO PUT RABUN COUNTY GA IN THE FREEZE WARNING
OWING TO LOWER MIN TEMP TREND IN THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 320 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA 12Z
SAT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW IN ITS WAKE.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS ON
EARLY SAT AS BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL TEMPS OUT SIDE OF THE MTNS APPEAR A BIT
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS
TO HIGHLIGHT MORE OF LIQUID PRECIP OVER THE PIEDMONT. STILL WITH
COLDER TEMPS OVER THE MTNS...EXPECT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS TO OCCUR
THROUGH EARLY SUN MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM
THIS EVENT WILL RANGE FROM 8" OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TO 12" OVER
THE SMOKIES. ELSEWHERE OVER THE NC MTNS WILL SEE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF SNOW. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A WINTER STORM
WARNING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
OVER BUNCOMBE...NORTHERN HALF OF JACKSON...AND GRAHAM COUNTIES.

STRONG NW WINDS OF 20-40 MPH WILL DEVELOP ON SAT IN LIGHT OF
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OFF THE SE COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...POPS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL (AROUND 15-20 BELOW NORMAL). SUN LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. NW SNOW OVER THE NC MTNS WILL
TAPER OFF BY EARLY SUN AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AND OFF TO THE EAST COAST BY TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN
SET UP BY TUE NIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
THU FOLLOWED BY NWLY FLOW THU NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES MON
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND WED
NIGHT AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY FRI MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL DRY OUT AS IT REACHES THE MTNS. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER DURING THE
FROPA. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM UP TO NEAR CLIMO BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHO THE SITUATION WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL AT THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD. UNTIL THEN...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING WITH A LIGHT NE WIND...FOLLOWED BY THICKENING MOSTLY
ALTOCU CEILINGS. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND MAY CHANGE BETWEEN NW AND SW OFTEN. AT THAT TIME...
A LOW CLOUD CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW...BUT STILL VFR. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE CLT METRO AREA
AROUND SUNSET. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PREVAILING
LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH STILL A VFR CATEGORY VISIBILITY...AFTER 02Z.
WIND AT THAT TIME SHOULD SETTLE INTO A N COMPONENT. NO ISSUES WITH
PRECIP TYPE UNTIL AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING. LOW VFR AND MID CLOUDS INCREASE THRU THE DAY FRI WITH LOW
VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AT KAVL. WINDS TURN WSW FRI AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS REMAIN NLY AT
KAVL. KAVL ALSO HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY SHRA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS INCLUDED AS A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THE STEADIER
RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MTNS BY SUNSET. HAVE INCLUDED THE RAIN
PREVAILING AFTER 02Z AT KAVL...AT WHICH TIME THE CEILING SHOULD DROP
TO MVFR. PRELIMINARY INDICATION IS THAT PRECIP COULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVL AS EARLY AS 05Z.  A SIMILAR PROGRESSION IS
NOTED AT KHKY...BUT PRECIP WAS KEPT LIQUID. OTHER TAF SITES ONLY
HAVE A VCSH AFTER 02Z OR 03Z...OWING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VFR BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ053-058-059.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR NCZ049-050-053-063>065.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 310812 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT...AND A STRONG MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK QUICKLY NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CANADIAN AIR MASS TO THE
REGION INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM...FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID
CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE W. TEMP/RH TRENDS STILL LOOK GOOD.
MIN TEMPS ALSO ON TRACK. NO CHANGES FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THEN THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING...

THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET ENOUGH...AS A
COLLECTION OF SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROF AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE PASSAGE OF THESE WAVES
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S E OF THE MTNS WITH 50S ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. THE SITUATION WILL GO RAPIDLY DOWNHILL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF A DEEPENING UPPER LOW.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY SMALL...IT LOOKS WICKEDLY DYNAMIC
AS IT DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT TO A POSITION
OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AT DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. THIS COMPACT SYSTEM
SHOULD HAVE ALL MANNER OF LOW/MID/UPPER FORCING THAT COMES INTO PLAY
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. YOU NAME IT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE
IT...IN SPADES. MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY DEEP...SO THE POP
RAMPS UP TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE MTNS FRIDAY EVE...AND INTO THE
LIKELY RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND WRN PIEDMONT...AND
EVENTUALLY CATEGORICAL OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT...WHERE FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED ON THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP WAS LIMITED TO THE
CHC RANGE OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA AS SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
MAY INHIBIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.

IT IS PROBABLY A GOOD THING THAT IT IS NOT JANUARY...OR ELSE IT
MIGHT BE REALLY INTERESTING. NEVERTHELESS... THE DISTRIBUTION OF
PARTIAL THICKNESS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE DECIDEDLY
WINTER-LIKE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD ALLOW
PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM RIDGETOPS DOWN TO THE
VALLEYS ACROSS THE NC MTNS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EAST OF THE
MTNS...THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN TEMP AND
DEWPT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY PERHAPS BECAUSE THE OPERATIONAL MODEL WAS
WETTER...WHICH WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED. THAT SHOULD BUMP THE SFC WET
BULB TEMPS UP A BIT MORE...MEANING LESS OF A CHANCE OF SEEING ANY
SNOW E OF THE FOOTHILLS THRU 12Z SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THE 21Z
SREF...WHICH AT THIS TIME WAS THE MOST RECENT...THAT SHOWS PTYPE
OVERWHELMINGLY IN FAVOR OF RAIN. THAT BEING SAID...WILL GIVE A NOD
TO THE COOLER NAM BUFKIT PROFILES THAT SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY OF A
WET SNOWSHOWER AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND WRN
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS MIGHT NOT YET MAKE THE CUT AND APPEAR IN THE
FCST. SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET OVER THE MTNS MAINLY NEAR THE
TN BORDER...WITH UPWARDS OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE. SOME OF
THE SNOW MAY WRAP AROUND INTO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND NE
GEORGIA AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THOSE LOCATIONS HAVE THE LOWEST
PROBABILITY OF ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...AT THE LOW END OF
THE CHC RANGE. AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED YET FOR THE REST OF
THE SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND NE GEORGIA...INSTEAD WILL TAKE A LOOK AT
THE MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR MORE GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY/WARNING CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA 12Z
SAT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW IN ITS WAKE.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS ON
EARLY SAT AS BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL TEMPS OUT SIDE OF THE MTNS APPEAR A BIT
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS
TO HIGHLIGHT MORE OF LIQUID PRECIP OVER THE PIEDMONT. STILL WITH
COLDER TEMPS OVER THE MTNS...EXPECT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS TO OCCUR
THROUGH EARLY SUN MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM
THIS EVENT WILL RANGE FROM 8" OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TO 12" OVER
THE SMOKIES. ELSEWHERE OVER THE NC MTNS WILL SEE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF SNOW. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A WINTER STORM
WARNING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
OVER BUNCOMBE...NORTHERN HALF OF JACKSON...AND GRAHAM COUNTIES.

STRONG NW WINDS OF 20-40 MPH WILL DEVELOP ON SAT IN LIGHT OF
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OFF THE SE COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...POPS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL (AROUND 15-20 BELOW NORMAL). SUN LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. NW SNOW OVER THE NC MTNS WILL
TAPER OFF BY EARLY SUN AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN. TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AND OFF TO THE EAST COAST BY TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN
SET UP BY TUE NIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
THU FOLLOWED BY NWLY FLOW THU NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES MON
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND WED
NIGHT AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY FRI MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL DRY OUT AS IT REACHES THE MTNS. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER DURING THE
FROPA. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM UP TO NEAR CLIMO BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHO THE SITUATION WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL AT THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD. UNTIL THEN...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING WITH A LIGHT NE WIND...FOLLOWED BY THICKENING MOSTLY
ALTOCU CEILINGS. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND MAY CHANGE BETWEEN NW AND SW OFTEN. AT THAT TIME...
A LOW CLOUD CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW...BUT STILL VFR. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE CLT METRO AREA
AROUND SUNSET. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PREVAILING
LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH STILL A VFR CATEGORY VISIBILITY...AFTER 02Z.
WIND AT THAT TIME SHOULD SETTLE INTO A N COMPONENT. NO ISSUES WITH
PRECIP TYPE UNTIL AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING. LOW VFR AND MID CLOUDS INCREASE THRU THE DAY FRI WITH LOW
VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AT KAVL. WINDS TURN WSW FRI AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS REMAIN NLY AT
KAVL. KAVL ALSO HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY SHRA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS INCLUDED AS A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THE STEADIER
RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MTNS BY SUNSET. HAVE INCLUDED THE RAIN
PREVAILING AFTER 02Z AT KAVL...AT WHICH TIME THE CEILING SHOULD DROP
TO MVFR. PRELIMINARY INDICATION IS THAT PRECIP COULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVL AS EARLY AS 05Z.  A SIMILAR PROGRESSION IS
NOTED AT KHKY...BUT PRECIP WAS KEPT LIQUID. OTHER TAF SITES ONLY
HAVE A VCSH AFTER 02Z OR 03Z...OWING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VFR BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ053-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM







000
FXUS62 KGSP 310733
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT...AND A STRONG MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK QUICKLY NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CANADIAN AIR MASS TO THE
REGION INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM...FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID
CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE W. TEMP/RH TRENDS STILL LOOK GOOD.
MIN TEMPS ALSO ON TRACK. NO CHANGES FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THEN THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING...

THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET ENOUGH...AS A
COLLECTION OF SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROF AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE PASSAGE OF THESE WAVES
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S E OF THE MTNS WITH 50S ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. THE SITUATION WILL GO RAPIDLY DOWNHILL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF A DEEPENING UPPER LOW.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY SMALL...IT LOOKS WICKEDLY DYNAMIC
AS IT DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT TO A POSITION
OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AT DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. THIS COMPACT SYSTEM
SHOULD HAVE ALL MANNER OF LOW/MID/UPPER FORCING THAT COMES INTO PLAY
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. YOU NAME IT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE
IT...IN SPADES. MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY DEEP...SO THE POP
RAMPS UP TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE MTNS FRIDAY EVE...AND INTO THE
LIKELY RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND WRN PIEDMONT...AND
EVENTUALLY CATEGORICAL OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT...WHERE FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED ON THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP WAS LIMITED TO THE
CHC RANGE OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA AS SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
MAY INHIBIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.

IT IS PROBABLY A GOOD THING THAT IT IS NOT JANUARY...OR ELSE IT
MIGHT BE REALLY INTERESTING. NEVERTHELESS... THE DISTRIBUTION OF
PARTIAL THICKNESS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE DECIDEDLY
WINTER-LIKE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD ALLOW
PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM RIDGETOPS DOWN TO THE
VALLEYS ACROSS THE NC MTNS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EAST OF THE
MTNS...THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN TEMP AND
DEWPT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY PERHAPS BECAUSE THE OPERATIONAL MODEL WAS
WETTER...WHICH WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED. THAT SHOULD BUMP THE SFC WET
BULB TEMPS UP A BIT MORE...MEANING LESS OF A CHANCE OF SEEING ANY
SNOW E OF THE FOOTHILLS THRU 12Z SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THE 21Z
SREF...WHICH AT THIS TIME WAS THE MOST RECENT...THAT SHOWS PTYPE
OVERWHELMINGLY IN FAVOR OF RAIN. THAT BEING SAID...WILL GIVE A NOD
TO THE COOLER NAM BUFKIT PROFILES THAT SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY OF A
WET SNOWSHOWER AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND WRN
PIEDMONT...BUT THIS MIGHT NOT YET MAKE THE CUT AND APPEAR IN THE
FCST. SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET OVER THE MTNS MAINLY NEAR THE
TN BORDER...WITH UPWARDS OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE. SOME OF
THE SNOW MAY WRAP AROUND INTO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND NE
GEORGIA AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THOSE LOCATIONS HAVE THE LOWEST
PROBABILITY OF ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...AT THE LOW END OF
THE CHC RANGE. AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED YET FOR THE REST OF
THE SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND NE GEORGIA...INSTEAD WILL TAKE A LOOK AT
THE MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR MORE GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY/WARNING CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INIDICATE THAT AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA 12Z SAT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z
SUN WITH AN UNSEASONALBY COLD AIRMASS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW
IN ITS WAKE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MTNS ON EARLY SAT AS BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
PEIDMONT. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL TEMPS OUT SIDE OF THE MTNS APPEAR
A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED WX
GRIDS TO HIGHLIGHT MORE OF LIQUID PRECIP OVER THE PIEDMONT. STILL
WITH COLDER TEMPS OVER THE MTNS...EXPECT DECENT SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR SAT INTO EARLY SUN. POPS TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE
UPPER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED. SUN LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS
THE CANADIAN HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. NW SNOW OVER THE NC
MTNS WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY SUN AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AND OFF TO THE EAST COAST BY TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN
SET UP BY TUE NIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
THU FOLLOWED BY NWLY FLOW THU NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES MON
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND WED
NIGHT AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY FRI MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL DRY OUT AS IT REACHES THE MTNS. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER DURING THE
FROPA. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM UP TO NEAR CLIMO BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHO THE SITUATION WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL AT THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD. UNTIL THEN...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING WITH A LIGHT NE WIND...FOLLOWED BY THICKENING MOSTLY
ALTOCU CEILINGS. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND MAY CHANGE BETWEEN NW AND SW OFTEN. AT THAT TIME...
A LOW CLOUD CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW...BUT STILL VFR. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE CLT METRO AREA
AROUND SUNSET. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PREVAILING
LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH STILL A VFR CATEGORY VISIBILITY...AFTER 02Z.
WIND AT THAT TIME SHOULD SETTLE INTO A N COMPONENT. NO ISSUES WITH
PRECIP TYPE UNTIL AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING. LOW VFR AND MID CLOUDS INCREASE THRU THE DAY FRI WITH LOW
VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AT KAVL. WINDS TURN WSW FRI AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS REMAIN NLY AT
KAVL. KAVL ALSO HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY SHRA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS INCLUDED AS A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THE STEADIER
RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MTNS BY SUNSET. HAVE INCLUDED THE RAIN
PREVAILING AFTER 02Z AT KAVL...AT WHICH TIME THE CEILING SHOULD DROP
TO MVFR. PRELIMINARY INDICATION IS THAT PRECIP COULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVL AS EARLY AS 05Z.  A SIMILAR PROGRESSION IS
NOTED AT KHKY...BUT PRECIP WAS KEPT LIQUID. OTHER TAF SITES ONLY
HAVE A VCSH AFTER 02Z OR 03Z...OWING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VFR BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ053-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 310550
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT...AND A STRONG MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK QUICKLY NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CANADIAN AIR MASS TO THE REGION
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS.
TEMP/RH TRENDS LOOK GOOD. MIN TEMPS ALSO ON TRACK. NO CHANGES FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THEN THINGS START TO GET
INTERESTING...

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 1025 PM...GOING FCST STILL ON TRACK WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE SLOWED THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT
STILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MTNS BY MORNING GIVEN THE
CLOUDS UPSTREAM HEADING THIS WAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATES MAINLY FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN USA THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE A RIDGE UPSTREAM PROGRESSES FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
TO THE PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK...WHILE AN UPPER LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CAROLINA AND GA
COASTS TONIGHT...THEN BEGINS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE WAVE MOVES NE UP THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW
WILL FILL AS IT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK...BUT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MIDDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT REACHES THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NW. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST PRECIPITATION WITH LIMITED LIFT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
PIEDMONT...AND CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

THE BETTER PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WHERE ROBUST MOST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SETUP FROM THE NW. WITH
SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING
AFTERNOON...AND ALL SNOW ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS TOWARD EVENING...
BUT DURATION APPEARS TOO SHORT FOR ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE DUSK.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT IN
A COOL NW FLOW BEHIND THE COASTAL FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL RUN AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DDHHMM
WRKSHT

AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
MOVING AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW RAPIDLY SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. THIS LOW IS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5 SD`S
BELOW NORMAL. SO WE DO NOT SEE THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM VERY OFTEN.
THUS...WE WILL BE ONGUARD IN REGARD TO THE UNEXPECTED. WITH THE VERY
GOOD RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY...WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
AHEAD A UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN THE NC MOUNTAINS TO A
WARNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...EXCEPT FOR BUNCOMBE...NORTHERN
JACKSON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED.

THE VERY POTENT COMPACT VORTMAX/CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE DAY ON SAT... WITH A
DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP FROM CENTRAL VA/NC EXTENDING AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-77 CORRIDOR ON SAT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WITH 850
MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -6 TO -8C ALONG THE TN LINE AND GENERALLY 0
TO -4C ACRS THE PIEDMONT.  THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG ALONG WITH THE
RAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUTNAINS...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE I-85 CORRIDOR
TOWARD SR ON SAT. IN THE MOUNTAINS...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS INTO SAT EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 4-8 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES.
OTHER MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO UP TO
3 INCHES.

ON SATURDAY THE BOMBING LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERATE STRONG
LLVL WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS OUT OF THE NW. OUR WIND GUST
ALGORITHM HITS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH WOULD BE BELOW HIGH WIND WATCH
CRITERIA. PRECIP ENDS FOR THE MOST PART BY SAT EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NC MOUTNAINS ADJACENT TO TN.
CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT BUT ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY
MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS...SO NO FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW. TEMPS STAY WELL BELOW CLIMO
FOR SUN EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN BUILDING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE SE CONUS ON MONDAY AND
TRANSLATING RIDGE CENTER OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK TO WITHIN 5 DEG F OF CLIMO BY TUESDAY.
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW MUCH IF ANY DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPS
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST MODEL RESPONSE
STILL WEST OF THE MTNS BY THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN
TOKEN SMALL OR SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUE TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHO THE SITUATION WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL AT THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD. UNTIL THEN...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING WITH A LIGHT NE WIND...FOLLOWED BY THICKENING MOSTLY
ALTOCU CEILINGS. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND MAY CHANGE BETWEEN NW AND SW OFTEN. AT THAT TIME...
A LOW CLOUD CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW...BUT STILL VFR. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE CLT METRO AREA
AROUND SUNSET. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PREVAILING
LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH STILL A VFR CATEGORY VISIBILITY...AFTER 02Z.
WIND AT THAT TIME SHOULD SETTLE INTO A N COMPONENT. NO ISSUES WITH
PRECIP TYPE UNTIL AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING. LOW VFR AND MID CLOUDS INCREASE THRU THE DAY FRI WITH LOW
VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AT KAVL. WINDS TURN WSW FRI AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS REMAIN NLY AT
KAVL. KAVL ALSO HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY SHRA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS INCLUDED AS A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THE STEADIER
RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MTNS BY SUNSET. HAVE INCLUDED THE RAIN
PREVAILING AFTER 02Z AT KAVL...AT WHICH TIME THE CEILING SHOULD DROP
TO MVFR. PRELIMINARY INDICATION IS THAT PRECIP COULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVL AS EARLY AS 05Z.  A SIMILAR PROGRESSION IS
NOTED AT KHKY...BUT PRECIP WAS KEPT LIQUID. OTHER TAF SITES ONLY
HAVE A VCSH AFTER 02Z OR 03Z...OWING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VFR BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ053-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK/LG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 310226
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT...AND A STRONG MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK QUICKLY NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CANADIAN AIR MASS TO THE REGION
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...GOING FCST STILL ON TRACK WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE SLOWED THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT
STILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MTNS BY MORNING GIVEN THE
CLOUDS UPSTREAM HEADING THIS WAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATES MAINLY FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 745 PM...FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW AND MID CLOUDS INCREASING FRI. BEST CHC FOR ANY MTN VALLEY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE THE LITTLE TN BASIN. UPDATES WERE MAINLY FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

AS OF 425 PM...SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED FCST TO SHOW
THESE TRENDS AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO
GOING FCST.

AT 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
EASTERN USA THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE A RIDGE UPSTREAM PROGRESSES FROM
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK...WHILE
AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DEEPENING LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CAROLINA AND GA
COASTS TONIGHT...THEN BEGINS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE WAVE MOVES NE UP THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW
WILL FILL AS IT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK...BUT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MIDDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT REACHES THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NW. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST PRECIPITATION WITH LIMITED LIFT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
PIEDMONT...AND CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

THE BETTER PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WHERE ROBUST MOST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SETUP FROM THE NW. WITH
SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING
AFTERNOON...AND ALL SNOW ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS TOWARD EVENING...
BUT DURATION APPEARS TOO SHORT FOR ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE DUSK.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT IN
A COOL NW FLOW BEHIND THE COASTAL FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL RUN AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DDHHMM
WRKSHT

AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
MOVING AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW RAPIDLY SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. THIS LOW IS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5 SD`S
BELOW NORMAL. SO WE DO NOT SEE THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM VERY OFTEN.
THUS...WE WILL BE ONGUARD IN REGARD TO THE UNEXPECTED. WITH THE VERY
GOOD RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY...WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
AHEAD A UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN THE NC MOUNTAINS TO A
WARNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...EXCEPT FOR BUNCOMBE...NORTHERN
JACKSON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED.

THE VERY POTENT COMPACT VORTMAX/CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE DAY ON SAT... WITH A
DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP FROM CENTRAL VA/NC EXTENDING AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-77 CORRIDOR ON SAT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WITH 850
MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -6 TO -8C ALONG THE TN LINE AND GENERALLY 0
TO -4C ACRS THE PIEDMONT.  THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG ALONG WITH THE
RAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUTNAINS...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE I-85 CORRIDOR
TOWARD SR ON SAT. IN THE MOUNTAINS...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS INTO SAT EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 4-8 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES.
OTHER MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO UP TO
3 INCHES.

ON SATURDAY THE BOMBING LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERATE STRONG
LLVL WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS OUT OF THE NW. OUR WIND GUST
ALGORITHM HITS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH WOULD BE BELOW HIGH WIND WATCH
CRITERIA. PRECIP ENDS FOR THE MOST PART BY SAT EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NC MOUTNAINS ADJACENT TO TN.
CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT BUT ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY
MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS...SO NO FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW. TEMPS STAY WELL BELOW CLIMO
FOR SUN EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN BUILDING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE SE CONUS ON MONDAY AND
TRANSLATING RIDGE CENTER OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK TO WITHIN 5 DEG F OF CLIMO BY TUESDAY.
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW MUCH IF ANY DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPS
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST MODEL RESPONSE
STILL WEST OF THE MTNS BY THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN
TOKEN SMALL OR SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUE TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT..A LIGHT NNE WIND AND INCREASING CIRRUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOW VFR AND MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT EXPECT ANY
LOW VFR CIGS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EITHER LATE IN THE PERIOD OR AFTER
THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL TURN SWLY...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRI AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHRA IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND INCREASING CIRRUS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW VFR AND MID CLOUDS INCREASE THRU THE DAY FRI
WITH LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AT KAVL. WINDS TURN WSW FRI
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS
REMAIN NLY AT KAVL. KAVL ALSO HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY SHRA BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHC TOO LOW FOR TAF ATTM. ISOLATED
SHRA POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHUD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPS FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THRU. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ033-048>052.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR NCZ053-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK/LG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 302346
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
746 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT...AND A STRONG MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK QUICKLY NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CANADIAN AIR MASS TO THE REGION
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW AND MID CLOUDS INCREASING FRI. BEST CHC FOR ANY MTN VALLEY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE THE LITTLE TN BASIN. UPDATES WERE MAINLY FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

AS OF 425 PM...SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED FCST TO SHOW
THESE TRENDS AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO
GOING FCST.

AT 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
EASTERN USA THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE A RIDGE UPSTREAM PROGRESSES FROM
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK...WHILE
AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DEEPENING LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CAROLINA AND GA
COASTS TONIGHT...THEN BEGINS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE WAVE MOVES NE UP THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW
WILL FILL AS IT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK...BUT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MIDDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT REACHES THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NW. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST PRECIPITATION WITH LIMITED LIFT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
PIEDMONT...AND CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

THE BETTER PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WHERE ROBUST MOST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SETUP FROM THE NW. WITH
SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING
AFTERNOON...AND ALL SNOW ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS TOWARD EVENING...
BUT DURATION APPEARS TOO SHORT FOR ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE DUSK.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT IN
A COOL NW FLOW BEHIND THE COASTAL FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL RUN AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DDHHMM
WRKSHT

AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
MOVING AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW RAPIDLY SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. THIS LOW IS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5 SD`S
BELOW NORMAL. SO WE DO NOT SEE THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM VERY OFTEN.
THUS...WE WILL BE ONGUARD IN REGARD TO THE UNEXPECTED. WITH THE VERY
GOOD RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY...WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
AHEAD A UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN THE NC MOUNTAINS TO A
WARNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...EXCEPT FOR BUNCOMBE...NORTHERN
JACKSON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED.

THE VERY POTENT COMPACT VORTMAX/CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE DAY ON SAT... WITH A
DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP FROM CENTRAL VA/NC EXTENDING AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-77 CORRIDOR ON SAT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WITH 850
MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -6 TO -8C ALONG THE TN LINE AND GENERALLY 0
TO -4C ACRS THE PIEDMONT.  THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG ALONG WITH THE
RAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUTNAINS...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE I-85 CORRIDOR
TOWARD SR ON SAT. IN THE MOUNTAINS...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS INTO SAT EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 4-8 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES.
OTHER MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO UP TO
3 INCHES.

ON SATURDAY THE BOMBING LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERATE STRONG
LLVL WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS OUT OF THE NW. OUR WIND GUST
ALGORITHM HITS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH WOULD BE BELOW HIGH WIND WATCH
CRITERIA. PRECIP ENDS FOR THE MOST PART BY SAT EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NC MOUTNAINS ADJACENT TO TN.
CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT BUT ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY
MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS...SO NO FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW. TEMPS STAY WELL BELOW CLIMO
FOR SUN EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN BUILDING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE SE CONUS ON MONDAY AND
TRANSLATING RIDGE CENTER OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK TO WITHIN 5 DEG F OF CLIMO BY TUESDAY.
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW MUCH IF ANY DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPS
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST MODEL RESPONSE
STILL WEST OF THE MTNS BY THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN
TOKEN SMALL OR SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUE TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT..A LIGHT NNE WIND AND INCREASING CIRRUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LOW VFR AND MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT EXPECT ANY
LOW VFR CIGS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EITHER LATE IN THE PERIOD OR AFTER
THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL TURN SWLY...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRI AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHRA IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND INCREASING CIRRUS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW VFR AND MID CLOUDS INCREASE THRU THE DAY FRI
WITH LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AT KAVL. WINDS TURN WSW FRI
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS
REMAIN NLY AT KAVL. KAVL ALSO HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY SHRA BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CHC TOO LOW FOR TAF ATTM. ISOLATED
SHRA POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHUD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPS FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THRU. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ033-048>052.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR NCZ053-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK/LG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 302029
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
429 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT...AND A STRONG MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK QUICKLY NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CANADIAN AIR MASS TO THE REGION
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED FCST TO SHOW
THESE TRENDS AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO
GOING FCST.

AT 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
EASTERN USA THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE A RIDGE UPSTREAM PROGRESSES FROM
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK...WHILE
AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DEEPENING LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CAROLINA AND GA
COASTS TONIGHT...THEN BEGINS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE WAVE MOVES NE UP THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW
WILL FILL AS IT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK...BUT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MIDDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT REACHES THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NW. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST PRECIPITATION WITH LIMITED LIFT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
PIEDMONT...AND CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

THE BETTER PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WHERE ROBUST MOST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SETUP FROM THE NW. WITH
SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING
AFTERNOON...AND ALL SNOW ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS TOWARD EVENING...
BUT DURATION APPEARS TOO SHORT FOR ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE DUSK.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT IN
A COOL NW FLOW BEHIND THE COASTAL FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL RUN AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DDHHMM
WRKSHT

AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
MOVING AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW RAPIDLY SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. THIS LOW IS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5 SD`S
BELOW NORMAL. SO WE DO NOT SEE THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM VERY OFTEN.
THUS...WE WILL BE ONGUARD IN REGARD TO THE UNEXPECTED. WITH THE VERY
GOOD RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY...WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
AHEAD A UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN THE NC MOUNTAINS TO A
WARNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...EXCEPT FOR BUNCOMBE...NORTHERN
JACKSON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED.

THE VERY POTENT COMPACT VORTMAX/CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE DAY ON SAT... WITH A
DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP FROM CENTRAL VA/NC EXTENDING AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-77 CORRIDOR ON SAT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WITH 850
MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -6 TO -8C ALONG THE TN LINE AND GENERALLY 0
TO -4C ACRS THE PIEDMONT.  THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG ALONG WITH THE
RAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUTNAINS...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE I-85 CORRIDOR
TOWARD SR ON SAT. IN THE MOUNTAINS...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS INTO SAT EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 4-8 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES.
OTHER MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO UP TO
3 INCHES.

ON SATURDAY THE BOMBING LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERATE STRONG
LLVL WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS OUT OF THE NW. OUR WIND GUST
ALGORITHM HITS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH WOULD BE BELOW HIGH WIND WATCH
CRITERIA. PRECIP ENDS FOR THE MOST PART BY SAT EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NC MOUTNAINS ADJACENT TO TN.
CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT BUT ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY
MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS...SO NO FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW. TEMPS STAY WELL BELOW CLIMO
FOR SUN EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN BUILDING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE SE CONUS ON MONDAY AND
TRANSLATING RIDGE CENTER OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK TO WITHIN 5 DEG F OF CLIMO BY TUESDAY.
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW MUCH IF ANY DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPS
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST MODEL RESPONSE
STILL WEST OF THE MTNS BY THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN
TOKEN SMALL OR SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUE TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT..WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES. HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT NO CIG IS EXPECTED UNTIL
MIDDAY...WHEN CIRRUS FORMS A HIGH LEVEL VFR CIG. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE WNW ON FRIDAY MORNING...REMAINING RATHER LIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW INCREASING LOW
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...BUT VFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MIDDAY FRIDAY...AND ONLY
AT NC SITES. LIGHT WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WNW AT SC SITES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL BACK TO THE SW AT KHKY...AND REMAIN CHANNELED
UPVALLEY FROM THE NW AT KAVL. RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ033-048>052.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR NCZ053-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK/LG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT/RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 301918
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT...AND A STRONG MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK QUICKLY NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CANADIAN AIR MASS TO THE REGION
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
EASTERN USA THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE A RIDGE UPSTREAM PROGRESSES FROM
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK...WHILE
AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DEEPENING LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CAROLINA AND GA
COASTS TONIGHT...THEN BEGINS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE WAVE MOVES NE UP THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW
WILL FILL AS IT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK...BUT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MIDDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT REACHES THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NW. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST PRECIPITATION WITH LIMITED LIFT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
PIEDMONT...AND CONVECTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

THE BETTER PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WHERE ROBUST MOST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SETUP FROM THE NW. WITH
SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING
AFTERNOON...AND ALL SNOW ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS TOWARD EVENING...
BUT DURATION APPEARS TOO SHORT FOR ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE DUSK.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT IN
A COOL NW FLOW BEHIND THE COASTAL FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL RUN AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DDHHMM
WRKSHT

AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
MOVING AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW RAPIDLY SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. THIS LOW IS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5 SD`S
BELOW NORMAL. SO WE DO NOT SEE THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM VERY OFTEN.
THUS...WE WILL BE ONGUARD IN REGARD TO THE UNEXPECTED. WITH THE
VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY...WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO GO AHEAD A UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN THE NC MOUNTAINS
TO A WARNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...EXCEPT FOR
BUNCOMBE...NORTHERN JACKSON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

THE VERY POTENT COMPACT VORTMAX/CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE DAY ON SAT... WITH A
DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP FROM CENTRAL VA/NC EXTENDING AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-77 CORRIDOR ON SAT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WITH 850
MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -6 TO -8C ALONG THE TN LINE AND GENERALLY 0
TO -4C ACRS THE PIEDMONT.  THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG ALONG WITH THE
RAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUTNAINS...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE I-85 CORRIDOR
TOWARD SR ON SAT. IN THE MOUNTAINS...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS INTO SAT EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 4-8 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES.
OTHER MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO UP TO
3 INCHES.

ON SATURDAY THE BOMBING LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERATE STRONG
LLVL WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS OUT OF THE NW. OUR WIND GUST
ALGORITHM HITS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH WOULD BE BELOW HIGH WIND WATCH
CRITERIA. PRECIP ENDS FOR THE MOST PART BY SAT EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NC MOUTNAINS ADJACENT TO TN.
CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT BUT ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY
MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS...SO NO FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW. TEMPS STAY WELL BELOW CLIMO
FOR SUN EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN BUILDING DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ATOP THE SE CONUS ON MONDAY AND
TRANSLATING RIDGE CENTER OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK TO WITHIN 5 DEG F OF CLIMO BY TUESDAY.
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW MUCH IF ANY DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPS
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST MODEL RESPONSE
STILL WEST OF THE MTNS BY THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN
TOKEN SMALL OR SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUE TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT..WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE NNE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MODEST GUSTS. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN WIND DIRECTION. HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT NO CIG IS EXPECTED UNTIL
MIDDAY...WHEN CIRRUS FORMS A HIGH LEVEL VFR CIG. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE WNW ON FRIDAY MORNING...REMAINING RATHER LIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. NNE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MODEST GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
INCREASING LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
MIDDAY FRIDAY...AND ONLY AT NC SITES. LIGHT WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
WNW AT SC SITES ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL BACK TO THE SW AT KHKY...AND
REMAIN CHANNELED UPVALLEY FROM THE NW AT KAVL. RAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ033-048>052.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR NCZ053-058-059.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ053-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 301714
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
114 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT...AND A STRONG MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK QUICKLY NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CANADIAN AIR MASS TO THE REGION
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1715 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS ADJUSTED DOWN PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM DATA. TEMPERATURES
WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST ADJMAV AND ADJMET. POPS AND
AREAS OF SNOW WERE ADJUSTED LATE FRIDAY BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA AND TO CONCUR WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AT 1000 AM EDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CONTINENT. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE WERE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...ONE OVER CA...AND THE OTHER OVER THE GULF STATES...WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA AND GA
COASTS...AND EXTENDED TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE HIGH
WAS CENTERED OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS HIGH AND THE COASTAL FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS A BIT GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW VERY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY...AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ONLY REACHES THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL IN
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF A DEEP L/W TROF WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI. HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS WILL NOT COOL BY MORE THAN TWO
DEGREES. AS THE TROF APPROACHES...CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. LOWER MOISTURE/CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST FACING MTN SLOPES LATE
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING INCREASING UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
LOW TO MID 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE (EXCEPT THE CMC)...HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A VERY POTENT COMPACT VORTMAX/CLOSED
500 MB LOW...DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY...AND ROUNDING THE
BASE OF A SHARP/DEEP TROF OVER THE CWFA ON SATURDAY. THE ENERGY OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP ACRS
CENTRAL VA/NC. A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -6 TO -8C ALONG THE TN LINE
AND GENERALLY 0 TO -4C ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THE LLVL WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 40-50 KTS OUT OF THE NW...AS THE MID-UPR LOW SWINGS BY...WITH
STRONG CAA...SHUD RESULT IN PROBABLY WIND ADV LVL WINDS IN THE MTNS
(EVEN HIGHER AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS). BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SPREAD ACRS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS THE
LLVL SYSTEM DEEPENS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS...AND CONTINUED NLY CAA
FLOW PERSISTS. THIS EVENT IS ONLY 48-60 HOURS AWAY...AND YET
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DETAILS ON SENSIBLE WX. IF THE 00Z GFS
VERIFIES...IT/S 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ABOUT 5.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL (OR ABOUT A 50-YEAR RETURN INTERVAL). HOWEVER...ONE
THING SEEMS ALMOST A SLAM DUNK...AND THAT IS ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS A VERY GOOD NW FLOW SNOW SET UP SHUD OCCUR.

FRIDAY SHUD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS...AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MID AFTN IN THE NRN
MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACRS THE MUCH OF THE AREA...AS DEEP LYR RH WILL
ACCOMPANY VERY STRONG QG FORCING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SNOW
LEVELS FALLING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH
PERHAPS A LULL IN SHWR ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE USUAL NW FLOW AREAS.
HIGHS WILL BE 1-2 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THEN DROP WITH
ONSET OF CAA...ESP IN THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO MID 30S MTNS...AND UPR 30S TO LWR 40S PIEDMONT.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...DEPENDING ON HOW ROBUST THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS.

SATURDAY...TAKING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE SHUD BE A
PERIOD OF WRAP-AROUND RAIN/SHWR ACTIVITY ACRS THE I-77
CORRIDOR...WHILE THE NW FLOW SNOW SHWRS CONTINUE ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS/POPS FOR THE DAY ARE LOW CONFIDENCE...GIVEN THE
DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS MAY RISE BACK UP TO ABOUT
3500 FT...AS THE COMPACT MID LVL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. SOME
PORTIONS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT MAY SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIP SHUD REMAIN LIQUID...AS THE SFC LAYER IS JUST TOO WARM. EVEN
IF SOME SNOW FALLS OUTSIDE THE MTNS ON SATURDAY...ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS LOOKS HIGHLY UNLIKELY...AS SOIL TEMPS ARE RUNNING MID 50S TO
MID 60S AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. CHARLOTTE HAS NOT HAD MEASURABLE SNOW
EARLIER THAN NOV 11TH GOING BACK TO 1878. I BLENDED IN THE STRAIGHT
GFS TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES AND
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE EAST. HIGHS IN THE MTNS MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MID 40S EAST TO MID 50S WEST IN THE
PIEDMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY SHUD SUBSIDE...AND GUIDANCE
AGREES ON POPS TAPERING OFF BY 12Z SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS LOW PRES EXITS TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND
WINDS TO DIMINISH...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT? SO DEPENDING ON HOW GOOD THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CAN GET...MAY A LIGHT FREEZE ACRS
MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. THE GOING FCST IS FOR MAINLY LWR TO MID 30S
ACRS THE PIEDMONT. MTNS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...GIVEN THE FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT
TERM...THERE WAS NO TIME TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED THIS
MORNING. DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING...A STRONG...ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT
LIFTS NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE REACHED THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...AND ON TUESDAY THIS
RIDGE CROSSES THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY IN
THE GFS...BUT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE IN THE ECMWF.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY LATE
TUESDAY...A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH OUR AREA...STARTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RAMP UP LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND 15 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL IN
A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY
MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT..WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE NNE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MODEST GUSTS. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN WIND DIRECTION. HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT NO CIG IS EXPECTED UNTIL
MIDDAY...WHEN CIRRUS FORMS A HIGH LEVEL VFR CIG. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE WNW ON FRIDAY MORNING...REMAINING RATHER LIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. NNE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MODEST GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
INCREASING LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
MIDDAY FRIDAY...AND ONLY AT NC SITES. LIGHT WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
WNW AT SC SITES ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL BACK TO THE SW AT KHKY...AND
REMAIN CHANNELED UPVALLEY FROM THE NW AT KAVL. RAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 301358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CIRCULATION AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CANADIAN AIR MASS TO
THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1000 AM EDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA... WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CONTINENT. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE WERE MOVING THROUGH HTE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...ONE OVER CA...AND THE OTHER OVER THE GULF STATES...WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS NOTED OVER THJE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA AND GA
COASTS...AND EXTENDED TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE HIGH
WAS CENTERED OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS HIGH AND THE COASTAL FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTH TODAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW VERY LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TODAY...AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW ENTERING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ONLY REACHES THE MOUNTAINS
TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW
NORMAL IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF A DEEP L/W TROF WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI. HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS WILL NOT COOL BY MORE THAN TWO
DEGREES. AS THE TROF APPROACHES...CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. LOWER MOISTURE/CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST FACING MTN SLOPES LATE
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING INCREASING UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
LOW TO MID 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE (EXCEPT THE CMC)...HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A VERY POTENT COMPACT VORTMAX/CLOSED
500 MB LOW...DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY...AND ROUNDING THE
BASE OF A SHARP/DEEP TROF OVER THE CWFA ON SATURDAY. THE ENERGY OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP ACRS
CENTRAL VA/NC. A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -6 TO -8C ALONG THE TN LINE
AND GENERALLY 0 TO -4C ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THE LLVL WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 40-50 KTS OUT OF THE NW...AS THE MID-UPR LOW SWINGS BY...WITH
STRONG CAA...SHUD RESULT IN PROBABLY WIND ADV LVL WINDS IN THE MTNS
(EVEN HIGHER AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS). BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SPREAD ACRS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS THE
LLVL SYSTEM DEEPENS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS...AND CONTINUED NLY CAA
FLOW PERSISTS. THIS EVENT IS ONLY 48-60 HOURS AWAY...AND YET
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DETAILS ON SENSIBLE WX. IF THE 00Z GFS
VERIFIES...IT/S 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ABOUT 5.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL (OR ABOUT A 50-YEAR RETURN INTERVAL). HOWEVER...ONE
THING SEEMS ALMOST A SLAM DUNK...AND THAT IS ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS A VERY GOOD NW FLOW SNOW SET UP SHUD OCCUR.

FRIDAY SHUD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS...AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MID AFTN IN THE NRN
MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACRS THE MUCH OF THE AREA...AS DEEP LYR RH WILL
ACCOMPANY VERY STRONG QG FORCING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SNOW
LEVELS FALLING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH
PERHAPS A LULL IN SHWR ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE USUAL NW FLOW AREAS.
HIGHS WILL BE 1-2 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THEN DROP WITH
ONSET OF CAA...ESP IN THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO MID 30S MTNS...AND UPR 30S TO LWR 40S PIEDMONT.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...DEPENDING ON HOW ROBUST THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS.

SATURDAY...TAKING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE SHUD BE A
PERIOD OF WRAP-AROUND RAIN/SHWR ACTIVITY ACRS THE I-77
CORRIDOR...WHILE THE NW FLOW SNOW SHWRS CONTINUE ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS/POPS FOR THE DAY ARE LOW CONFIDENCE...GIVEN THE
DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS MAY RISE BACK UP TO ABOUT
3500 FT...AS THE COMPACT MID LVL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. SOME
PORTIONS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT MAY SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIP SHUD REMAIN LIQUID...AS THE SFC LAYER IS JUST TOO WARM. EVEN
IF SOME SNOW FALLS OUTSIDE THE MTNS ON SATURDAY...ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS LOOKS HIGHLY UNLIKELY...AS SOIL TEMPS ARE RUNNING MID 50S TO
MID 60S AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. CHARLOTTE HAS NOT HAD MEASURABLE SNOW
EARLIER THAN NOV 11TH GOING BACK TO 1878. I BLENDED IN THE STRAIGHT
GFS TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES AND
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE EAST. HIGHS IN THE MTNS MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MID 40S EAST TO MID 50S WEST IN THE
PIEDMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY SHUD SUBSIDE...AND GUIDANCE
AGREES ON POPS TAPERING OFF BY 12Z SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS LOW PRES EXITS TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND
WINDS TO DIMINISH...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT? SO DEPENDING ON HOW GOOD THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CAN GET...MAY A LIGHT FREEZE ACRS
MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. THE GOING FCST IS FOR MAINLY LWR TO MID 30S
ACRS THE PIEDMONT. MTNS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...GIVEN THE FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT
TERM...THERE WAS NO TIME TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED THIS
MORNING. DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING...A STRONG...ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT
LIFTS NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE REACHED THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...AND ON TUESDAY THIS
RIDGE CROSSES THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY IN
THE GFS...BUT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE IN THE ECMWF.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY LATE
TUESDAY...A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH OUR AREA...STARTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RAMP UP LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND 15 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL IN
A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY
MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT NNE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 301048
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CIRCULATION AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CANADIAN AIR MASS TO
THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM...COOL AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. I
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST TEMP/TD OBS. OVERALL...THE
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

AS OF 330 AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NNE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT THE MID
LEVELS...THE AXIS OF AN AMPLIFYING TROF WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
FALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE COOL LLVL THICKNESSES AND LIGHT
NNE WINDS SHOULD FAVOR HIGHS IN THE U50S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO
MID TO UPPER 60S EAST.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF A DEEP L/W TROF WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI. HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS WILL NOT COOL BY MORE THAN TWO
DEGREES. AS THE TROF APPROACHES...CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. LOWER MOISTURE/CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST FACING MTN SLOPES LATE
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING INCREASING UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
LOW TO MID 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE (EXCEPT THE CMC)...HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A VERY POTENT COMPACT VORTMAX/CLOSED
500 MB LOW...DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY...AND ROUNDING THE
BASE OF A SHARP/DEEP TROF OVER THE CWFA ON SATURDAY. THE ENERGY OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP ACRS
CENTRAL VA/NC. A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -6 TO -8C ALONG THE TN LINE
AND GENERALLY 0 TO -4C ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THE LLVL WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 40-50 KTS OUT OF THE NW...AS THE MID-UPR LOW SWINGS BY...WITH
STRONG CAA...SHUD RESULT IN PROBABLY WIND ADV LVL WINDS IN THE MTNS
(EVEN HIGHER AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS). BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SPREAD ACRS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS THE
LLVL SYSTEM DEEPENS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS...AND CONTINUED NLY CAA
FLOW PERSISTS. THIS EVENT IS ONLY 48-60 HOURS AWAY...AND YET
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DETAILS ON SENSIBLE WX. IF THE 00Z GFS
VERIFIES...IT/S 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ABOUT 5.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL (OR ABOUT A 50-YEAR RETURN INTERVAL). HOWEVER...ONE
THING SEEMS ALMOST A SLAM DUNK...AND THAT IS ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS A VERY GOOD NW FLOW SNOW SET UP SHUD OCCUR.

FRIDAY SHUD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS...AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MID AFTN IN THE NRN
MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACRS THE MUCH OF THE AREA...AS DEEP LYR RH WILL
ACCOMPANY VERY STRONG QG FORCING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SNOW
LEVELS FALLING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH
PERHAPS A LULL IN SHWR ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE USUAL NW FLOW AREAS.
HIGHS WILL BE 1-2 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THEN DROP WITH
ONSET OF CAA...ESP IN THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO MID 30S MTNS...AND UPR 30S TO LWR 40S PIEDMONT.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...DEPENDING ON HOW ROBUST THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS.

SATURDAY...TAKING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE SHUD BE A
PERIOD OF WRAP-AROUND RAIN/SHWR ACTIVITY ACRS THE I-77
CORRIDOR...WHILE THE NW FLOW SNOW SHWRS CONTINUE ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS/POPS FOR THE DAY ARE LOW CONFIDENCE...GIVEN THE
DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS MAY RISE BACK UP TO ABOUT
3500 FT...AS THE COMPACT MID LVL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. SOME
PORTIONS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT MAY SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIP SHUD REMAIN LIQUID...AS THE SFC LAYER IS JUST TOO WARM. EVEN
IF SOME SNOW FALLS OUTSIDE THE MTNS ON SATURDAY...ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS LOOKS HIGHLY UNLIKELY...AS SOIL TEMPS ARE RUNNING MID 50S TO
MID 60S AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. CHARLOTTE HAS NOT HAD MEASURABLE SNOW
EARLIER THAN NOV 11TH GOING BACK TO 1878. I BLENDED IN THE STRAIGHT
GFS TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES AND
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE EAST. HIGHS IN THE MTNS MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MID 40S EAST TO MID 50S WEST IN THE
PIEDMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY SHUD SUBSIDE...AND GUIDANCE
AGREES ON POPS TAPERING OFF BY 12Z SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS LOW PRES EXITS TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND
WINDS TO DIMINISH...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT? SO DEPENDING ON HOW GOOD THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CAN GET...MAY A LIGHT FREEZE ACRS
MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. THE GOING FCST IS FOR MAINLY LWR TO MID 30S
ACRS THE PIEDMONT. MTNS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...GIVEN THE FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT
TERM...THERE WAS NO TIME TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED THIS
MORNING. DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING...A STRONG...ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT
LIFTS NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE REACHED THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...AND ON TUESDAY THIS
RIDGE CROSSES THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY IN
THE GFS...BUT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE IN THE ECMWF.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY LATE
TUESDAY...A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH OUR AREA...STARTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RAMP UP LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND 15 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL IN
A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY
MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT NNE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 301048
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CIRCULATION AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CANADIAN AIR MASS TO
THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM...COOL AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. I
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST TEMP/TD OBS. OVERALL...THE
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

AS OF 330 AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NNE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT THE MID
LEVELS...THE AXIS OF AN AMPLIFYING TROF WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
FALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE COOL LLVL THICKNESSES AND LIGHT
NNE WINDS SHOULD FAVOR HIGHS IN THE U50S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO
MID TO UPPER 60S EAST.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF A DEEP L/W TROF WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI. HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS WILL NOT COOL BY MORE THAN TWO
DEGREES. AS THE TROF APPROACHES...CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. LOWER MOISTURE/CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST FACING MTN SLOPES LATE
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING INCREASING UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
LOW TO MID 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE (EXCEPT THE CMC)...HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A VERY POTENT COMPACT VORTMAX/CLOSED
500 MB LOW...DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY...AND ROUNDING THE
BASE OF A SHARP/DEEP TROF OVER THE CWFA ON SATURDAY. THE ENERGY OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP ACRS
CENTRAL VA/NC. A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -6 TO -8C ALONG THE TN LINE
AND GENERALLY 0 TO -4C ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THE LLVL WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 40-50 KTS OUT OF THE NW...AS THE MID-UPR LOW SWINGS BY...WITH
STRONG CAA...SHUD RESULT IN PROBABLY WIND ADV LVL WINDS IN THE MTNS
(EVEN HIGHER AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS). BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SPREAD ACRS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS THE
LLVL SYSTEM DEEPENS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS...AND CONTINUED NLY CAA
FLOW PERSISTS. THIS EVENT IS ONLY 48-60 HOURS AWAY...AND YET
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DETAILS ON SENSIBLE WX. IF THE 00Z GFS
VERIFIES...IT/S 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ABOUT 5.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL (OR ABOUT A 50-YEAR RETURN INTERVAL). HOWEVER...ONE
THING SEEMS ALMOST A SLAM DUNK...AND THAT IS ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS A VERY GOOD NW FLOW SNOW SET UP SHUD OCCUR.

FRIDAY SHUD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS...AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MID AFTN IN THE NRN
MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACRS THE MUCH OF THE AREA...AS DEEP LYR RH WILL
ACCOMPANY VERY STRONG QG FORCING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SNOW
LEVELS FALLING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH
PERHAPS A LULL IN SHWR ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE USUAL NW FLOW AREAS.
HIGHS WILL BE 1-2 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THEN DROP WITH
ONSET OF CAA...ESP IN THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO MID 30S MTNS...AND UPR 30S TO LWR 40S PIEDMONT.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...DEPENDING ON HOW ROBUST THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS.

SATURDAY...TAKING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE SHUD BE A
PERIOD OF WRAP-AROUND RAIN/SHWR ACTIVITY ACRS THE I-77
CORRIDOR...WHILE THE NW FLOW SNOW SHWRS CONTINUE ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS/POPS FOR THE DAY ARE LOW CONFIDENCE...GIVEN THE
DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS MAY RISE BACK UP TO ABOUT
3500 FT...AS THE COMPACT MID LVL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. SOME
PORTIONS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT MAY SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIP SHUD REMAIN LIQUID...AS THE SFC LAYER IS JUST TOO WARM. EVEN
IF SOME SNOW FALLS OUTSIDE THE MTNS ON SATURDAY...ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS LOOKS HIGHLY UNLIKELY...AS SOIL TEMPS ARE RUNNING MID 50S TO
MID 60S AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. CHARLOTTE HAS NOT HAD MEASURABLE SNOW
EARLIER THAN NOV 11TH GOING BACK TO 1878. I BLENDED IN THE STRAIGHT
GFS TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES AND
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE EAST. HIGHS IN THE MTNS MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MID 40S EAST TO MID 50S WEST IN THE
PIEDMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY SHUD SUBSIDE...AND GUIDANCE
AGREES ON POPS TAPERING OFF BY 12Z SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS LOW PRES EXITS TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND
WINDS TO DIMINISH...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT? SO DEPENDING ON HOW GOOD THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CAN GET...MAY A LIGHT FREEZE ACRS
MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. THE GOING FCST IS FOR MAINLY LWR TO MID 30S
ACRS THE PIEDMONT. MTNS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...GIVEN THE FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT
TERM...THERE WAS NO TIME TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED THIS
MORNING. DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING...A STRONG...ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT
LIFTS NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE REACHED THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...AND ON TUESDAY THIS
RIDGE CROSSES THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY IN
THE GFS...BUT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE IN THE ECMWF.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY LATE
TUESDAY...A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH OUR AREA...STARTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RAMP UP LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND 15 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL IN
A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY
MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT NNE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 300754
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CIRCULATION AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CANADIAN AIR MASS TO
THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NNE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT THE MID
LEVELS...THE AXIS OF AN AMPLIFYING TROF WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
FALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE COOL LLVL THICKNESSES AND LIGHT
NNE WINDS SHOULD FAVOR HIGHS IN THE U50S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO
MID TO UPPER 60S EAST.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF A DEEP L/W TROF WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI. HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS WILL NOT COOL BY MORE THAN TWO
DEGREES. AS THE TROF APPROACHES...CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. LOWER MOISTURE/CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST FACING MTN SLOPES LATE
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING INCREASING UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
LOW TO MID 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE (EXCEPT THE CMC)...HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A VERY POTENT COMPACT VORTMAX/CLOSED
500 MB LOW...DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY...AND ROUNDING THE
BASE OF A SHARP/DEEP TROF OVER THE CWFA ON SATURDAY. THE ENERGY OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP ACRS
CENTRAL VA/NC. A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -6 TO -8C ALONG THE TN LINE
AND GENERALLY 0 TO -4C ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THE LLVL WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 40-50 KTS OUT OF THE NW...AS THE MID-UPR LOW SWINGS BY...WITH
STRONG CAA...SHUD RESULT IN PROBABLY WIND ADV LVL WINDS IN THE MTNS
(EVEN HIGHER AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS). BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SPREAD ACRS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS THE
LLVL SYSTEM DEEPENS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS...AND CONTINUED NLY CAA
FLOW PERSISTS. THIS EVENT IS ONLY 48-60 HOURS AWAY...AND YET
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DETAILS ON SENSIBLE WX. IF THE 00Z GFS
VERIFIES...IT/S 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ABOUT 5.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL (OR ABOUT A 50-YEAR RETURN INTERVAL). HOWEVER...ONE
THING SEEMS ALMOST A SLAM DUNK...AND THAT IS ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS A VERY GOOD NW FLOW SNOW SET UP SHUD OCCUR.

FRIDAY SHUD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS...AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MID AFTN IN THE NRN
MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACRS THE MUCH OF THE AREA...AS DEEP LYR RH WILL
ACCOMPANY VERY STRONG QG FORCING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SNOW
LEVELS FALLING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH
PERHAPS A LULL IN SHWR ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE USUAL NW FLOW AREAS.
HIGHS WILL BE 1-2 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THEN DROP WITH
ONSET OF CAA...ESP IN THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO MID 30S MTNS...AND UPR 30S TO LWR 40S PIEDMONT.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT ALONG THE TN BORDER MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...DEPENDING ON HOW ROBUST THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS.

SATURDAY...TAKING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE SHUD BE A
PERIOD OF WRAP-AROUND RAIN/SHWR ACTIVITY ACRS THE I-77
CORRIDOR...WHILE THE NW FLOW SNOW SHWRS CONTINUE ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS/POPS FOR THE DAY ARE LOW CONFIDENCE...GIVEN THE
DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS MAY RISE BACK UP TO ABOUT
3500 FT...AS THE COMPACT MID LVL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. SOME
PORTIONS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT MAY SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIP SHUD REMAIN LIQUID...AS THE SFC LAYER IS JUST TOO WARM. EVEN
IF SOME SNOW FALLS OUTSIDE THE MTNS ON SATURDAY...ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS LOOKS HIGHLY UNLIKELY...AS SOIL TEMPS ARE RUNNING MID 50S TO
MID 60S AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. CHARLOTTE HAS NOT HAD MEASURABLE SNOW
EARLIER THAN NOV 11TH GOING BACK TO 1878. I BLENDED IN THE STRAIGHT
GFS TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES AND
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE EAST. HIGHS IN THE MTNS MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MID 40S EAST TO MID 50S WEST IN THE
PIEDMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY SHUD SUBSIDE...AND GUIDANCE
AGREES ON POPS TAPERING OFF BY 12Z SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS LOW PRES EXITS TO THE EAST...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND
WINDS TO DIMINISH...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT? SO DEPENDING ON HOW GOOD THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CAN GET...MAY A LIGHT FREEZE ACRS
MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. THE GOING FCST IS FOR MAINLY LWR TO MID 30S
ACRS THE PIEDMONT. MTNS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...GIVEN THE FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT
TERM...THERE WAS NO TIME TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED THIS
MORNING. DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING...A STRONG...ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT
LIFTS NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE REACHED THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...AND ON TUESDAY THIS
RIDGE CROSSES THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY IN
THE GFS...BUT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE IN THE ECMWF.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY LATE
TUESDAY...A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH OUR AREA...STARTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RAMP UP LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND 15 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL IN
A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY
MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT NNE WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS. CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING AS MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 300602
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONDITIONS TO MOVE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN CLEARING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH SUNRISE.
OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST AND PRODUCTS APPEAR ON TRACK.

AS OF 1025 PM...A FEW LINGERING SHRA WILL END BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED
LONGER THAN EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...SO HAVE SLOWED THE
CLEARING THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF FASTER THAN EXPECTED...SO HAVE
MODIFIED THOSE AS WELL. LOWS STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK...BUT HAVE
MODIFIED THE TEMP AND DEW POINT CURVE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

AS OF 745 PM...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC
UPSTATE ATTM. A FEW SHRA DID DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT WITH THE FRONT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER LONGER. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AGAIN BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND FRONTAL
MOVEMENT...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 435 PM...PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED RAPIDLY AS FROM MAKES ITS WAY
THRU THE CWFA. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED OFF GREATLY ON POP...KEEPING
ONLY AN ISOLATED MENTION FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING LINGER. HAVE ALSO MADE SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITION GIVEN LATEST SAT PIX...FRONTAL MOVEMENT
AND LATEST GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE COOLDOWN AND DRYING
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN LINE
WITH LATEST OBS AND FRONTAL MOVEMENT.

AS OF 200 PM...COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY I-85 AS I WRITE.
RADAR STILL INDICATES ONLY SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
STRONGER CONVECTION IS NOTED WELL TO THE SW OVER EASTERN GA MOVING
TOWARD THE SC MIDLANDS. THE GOING LOW POP FORECAST IS STILL WORKING
OUT AND IF ANY THUNDER DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. THE SPC MESOANAL SHOWS AROUND 500J/KG OF CAPE IN THAT AREA
AND THE 12Z NAM MAX`S IT OUT AROUND 800J/KG.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
COLD ADVECTION AND DECOUPLING WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
FROST FORMATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN THE FROST
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT IN AVERY...MITCHELL...YANCEY AND BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW MOUNTAINS HAVE ALREADY HAD
A FREEZE...SO THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED FOR THAT REGION.

ON THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
PROVIDING GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND MAX TEMPS A LITTLE SHY OF
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL
TTAA00 KCAE 291915

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND EXTREMELY
DYNAMIC/NEG TILT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX THAT WILL
DIVE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BLAST
THROUGH OUR AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...INTRODUCING THE COLDEST
AIR MASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. HOWEVER...PERHAPS THE MORE
IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE AREA OF VERY STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING WAVE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOWER
LEVEL FORCING AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDER WAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. FORCING WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT LIKELY/CAT POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
EVEN THE NC PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN LIGHT OF THE INTENSITY OF THE FORCING. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL BE
PLUMMETING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MTNS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
EXTENDED NW FLOW SNOW EVENT...WITH SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT AT THE
OUTSET. PRECIP RATES COULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FRI NIGHT IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENN BORDER...WHICH SHOULD SEE VIRTUALLY ALL
SNOW DURING THIS EVENT.

BASED UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE NW FLOW (GREATER THAN 40 KTS AT
H8)...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE USUAL NW FLOW
AREAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE IT/S TOO EARLY TO GET TALK
ABOUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
SIGNIFICANT (I.E. AT LEAST ADVISORY-LEVEL) SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MTNS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EVEN IN THE NC
PIEDMONT...AS DEFORMATION ZONE GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS...ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY TRICKLE IN TO ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO
AN END.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INTENSIFIES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEPENING LOW. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 7-10 MG GRADIENT WITHIN STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FLOW...ALONG WITH H8 WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE
TYPICALLY INDICATIVE OF A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN...AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. TEMPS BY
SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING...A STRONG...ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT
LIFTS NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE REACHED THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...AND ON TUESDAY THIS
RIDGE CROSSES THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY IN
THE GFS...BUT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE IN THE ECMWF.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY LATE
TUESDAY...A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH OUR AREA...STARTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RAMP UP LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND 15 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL IN
A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY
MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT NNE WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS. CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING AS MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 300226
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...A FEW LINGERING SHRA WILL END BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED
LONGER THAN EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...SO HAVE SLOWED THE
CLEARING THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF FASTER THAN EXPECTED...SO HAVE
MODIFIED THOSE AS WELL. LOWS STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK...BUT HAVE
MODIFIED THE TEMP AND DEW POINT CURVE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

AS OF 745 PM...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC
UPSTATE ATTM. A FEW SHRA DID DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT WITH THE FRONT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER LONGER. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AGAIN BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND FRONTAL
MOVEMENT...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 435 PM...PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED RAPIDLY AS FROM MAKES ITS WAY
THRU THE CWFA. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED OFF GREATLY ON POP...KEEPING
ONLY AN ISOLATED MENTION FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING LINGER. HAVE ALSO MADE SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITION GIVEN LATEST SAT PIX...FRONTAL MOVEMENT
AND LATEST GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE COOLDOWN AND DRYING
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN LINE
WITH LATEST OBS AND FRONTAL MOVEMENT.

AS OF 200 PM...COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY I-85 AS I WRITE.
RADAR STILL INDICATES ONLY SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
STRONGER CONVECTION IS NOTED WELL TO THE SW OVER EASTERN GA MOVING
TOWARD THE SC MIDLANDS. THE GOING LOW POP FORECAST IS STILL WORKING
OUT AND IF ANY THUNDER DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. THE SPC MESOANAL SHOWS AROUND 500J/KG OF CAPE IN THAT AREA
AND THE 12Z NAM MAX`S IT OUT AROUND 800J/KG.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
COLD ADVECTION AND DECOUPLING WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
FROST FORMATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN THE FROST
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT IN AVERY...MITCHELL...YANCEY AND BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW MOUNTAINS HAVE ALREADY HAD
A FREEZE...SO THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED FOR THAT REGION.

ON THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
PROVIDING GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND MAX TEMPS A LITTLE SHY OF
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL
TTAA00 KCAE 291915

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND EXTREMELY
DYNAMIC/NEG TILT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX THAT WILL
DIVE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BLAST
THROUGH OUR AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...INTRODUCING THE COLDEST
AIR MASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. HOWEVER...PERHAPS THE MORE
IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE AREA OF VERY STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING WAVE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOWER
LEVEL FORCING AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDER WAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. FORCING WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT LIKELY/CAT POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
EVEN THE NC PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN LIGHT OF THE INTENSITY OF THE FORCING. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL BE
PLUMMETING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MTNS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
EXTENDED NW FLOW SNOW EVENT...WITH SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT AT THE
OUTSET. PRECIP RATES COULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FRI NIGHT IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENN BORDER...WHICH SHOULD SEE VIRTUALLY ALL
SNOW DURING THIS EVENT.

BASED UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE NW FLOW (GREATER THAN 40 KTS AT
H8)...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE USUAL NW FLOW
AREAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE IT/S TOO EARLY TO GET TALK
ABOUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
SIGNIFICANT (I.E. AT LEAST ADVISORY-LEVEL) SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MTNS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EVEN IN THE NC
PIEDMONT...AS DEFORMATION ZONE GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS...ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY TRICKLE IN TO ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO
AN END.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INTENSIFIES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEPENING LOW. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 7-10 MG GRADIENT WITHIN STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FLOW...ALONG WITH H8 WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE
TYPICALLY INDICATIVE OF A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN...AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. TEMPS BY
SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING...A STRONG...ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT
LIFTS NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE REACHED THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...AND ON TUESDAY THIS
RIDGE CROSSES THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY IN
THE GFS...BUT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE IN THE ECMWF.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY LATE
TUESDAY...A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH OUR AREA...STARTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RAMP UP LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND 15 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL IN
A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY
MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE AIR FIELD AND WILL
MOVE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHRA DID DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AND COULD AFFECT THE AIR FIELD...BUT WILL MORE LIKELY REMAIN TO THE
NORTH. LOW VFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THRU...
WHEN HIGH BASED VFR WILL PREVAIL. WINDS SHUD GO WNW SOON...THEN TURN
NLY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN LIGHT NE THU AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED THU AS WELL.

ELSEWHERE...SOME MVFR DEVELOPED OVER SC AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
SHUD NOT LINGER LONG AT KGSP/KGMU. OTHERWISE...ONLY LOW VFR EXPECTED
UNTIL FROPA WHEN HIGH BASED VFR WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL GO NWLY TO
NLY OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THU AFTERNOON. AT KAVL...
GUSTY NLY WIND WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT WINDS REMAIN THRU THE
NITE BEFORE TAPERING OFF THU AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS
THRU THE PERIOD. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-053.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...LG/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 292345
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
745 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC
UPSTATE ATTM. A FEW SHRA DID DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT WITH THE FRONT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER LONGER. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AGAIN BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND FRONTAL
MOVEMENT...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 435 PM...PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED RAPIDLY AS FROM MAKES ITS WAY
THRU THE CWFA. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED OFF GREATLY ON POP...KEEPING
ONLY AN ISOLATED MENTION FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING LINGER. HAVE ALSO MADE SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITION GIVEN LATEST SAT PIX...FRONTAL MOVEMENT
AND LATEST GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE COOLDOWN AND DRYING
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN LINE
WITH LATEST OBS AND FRONTAL MOVEMENT.

AS OF 200 PM...COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY I-85 AS I WRITE.
RADAR STILL INDICATES ONLY SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
STRONGER CONVECTION IS NOTED WELL TO THE SW OVER EASTERN GA MOVING
TOWARD THE SC MIDLANDS. THE GOING LOW POP FORECAST IS STILL WORKING
OUT AND IF ANY THUNDER DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. THE SPC MESOANAL SHOWS AROUND 500J/KG OF CAPE IN THAT AREA
AND THE 12Z NAM MAX`S IT OUT AROUND 800J/KG.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
COLD ADVECTION AND DECOUPLING WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
FROST FORMATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN THE FROST
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT IN AVERY...MITCHELL...YANCEY AND BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW MOUNTAINS HAVE ALREADY HAD
A FREEZE...SO THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED FOR THAT REGION.

ON THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
PROVIDING GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND MAX TEMPS A LITTLE SHY OF
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL
TTAA00 KCAE 291915

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND EXTREMELY
DYNAMIC/NEG TILT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX THAT WILL
DIVE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BLAST
THROUGH OUR AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...INTRODUCING THE COLDEST
AIR MASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. HOWEVER...PERHAPS THE MORE
IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE AREA OF VERY STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING WAVE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOWER
LEVEL FORCING AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDER WAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. FORCING WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT LIKELY/CAT POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
EVEN THE NC PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN LIGHT OF THE INTENSITY OF THE FORCING. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL BE
PLUMMETING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MTNS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
EXTENDED NW FLOW SNOW EVENT...WITH SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT AT THE
OUTSET. PRECIP RATES COULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FRI NIGHT IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENN BORDER...WHICH SHOULD SEE VIRTUALLY ALL
SNOW DURING THIS EVENT.

BASED UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE NW FLOW (GREATER THAN 40 KTS AT
H8)...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE USUAL NW FLOW
AREAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE IT/S TOO EARLY TO GET TALK
ABOUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
SIGNIFICANT (I.E. AT LEAST ADVISORY-LEVEL) SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MTNS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EVEN IN THE NC
PIEDMONT...AS DEFORMATION ZONE GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS...ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY TRICKLE IN TO ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO
AN END.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INTENSIFIES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEPENING LOW. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 7-10 MG GRADIENT WITHIN STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FLOW...ALONG WITH H8 WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE
TYPICALLY INDICATIVE OF A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN...AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. TEMPS BY
SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING...A STRONG...ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT
LIFTS NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE REACHED THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...AND ON TUESDAY THIS
RIDGE CROSSES THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY IN
THE GFS...BUT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE IN THE ECMWF.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY LATE
TUESDAY...A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH OUR AREA...STARTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RAMP UP LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND 15 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL IN
A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY
MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE AIR FIELD AND WILL
MOVE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHRA DID DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AND COULD AFFECT THE AIR FIELD...BUT WILL MORE LIKELY REMAIN TO THE
NORTH. LOW VFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THRU...
WHEN HIGH BASED VFR WILL PREVAIL. WINDS SHUD GO WNW SOON...THEN TURN
NLY LATER THIS EVENING...THEN LIGHT NE THU AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED THU AS WELL.

ELSEWHERE...SOME MVFR DEVELOPED OVER SC AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
SHUD NOT LINGER LONG AT KGSP/KGMU. OTHERWISE...ONLY LOW VFR EXPECTED
UNTIL FROPA WHEN HIGH BASED VFR WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL GO NWLY TO
NLY OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THU AFTERNOON. AT KAVL...
GUSTY NLY WIND WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT WINDS REMAIN THRU THE
NITE BEFORE TAPERING OFF THU AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS
THRU THE PERIOD. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-053.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...LG/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 292041
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
441 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 PM...PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED RAPIDLY AS FROM MAKES ITS WAY
THRU THE CWFA. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED OFF GREATLY ON POP...KEEPING
ONLY AN ISOLATED MENTION FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING LINGER. HAVE ALSO MADE SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITION GIVEN LATEST SAT PIX...FRONTAL MOVEMENT
AND LATEST GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE COOLDOWN AND DRYING
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN LINE
WITH LATEST OBS AND FRONTAL MOVEMENT.

AS OF 200 PM...COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY I-85 AS I WRITE.
RADAR STILL INDICATES ONLY SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
STRONGER CONVECTION IS NOTED WELL TO THE SW OVER EASTERN GA MOVING
TOWARD THE SC MIDLANDS. THE GOING LOW POP FORECAST IS STILL WORKING
OUT AND IF ANY THUNDER DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. THE SPC MESOANAL SHOWS AROUND 500J/KG OF CAPE IN THAT AREA
AND THE 12Z NAM MAX`S IT OUT AROUND 800J/KG.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
COLD ADVECTION AND DECOUPLING WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
FROST FORMATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN THE FROST
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT IN AVERY...MITCHELL...YANCEY AND BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW MOUNTAINS HAVE ALREADY HAD
A FREEZE...SO THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED FOR THAT REGION.

ON THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
PROVIDING GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND MAX TEMPS A LITTLE SHY OF
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL
TTAA00 KCAE 291915

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND EXTREMELY
DYNAMIC/NEG TILT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX THAT WILL
DIVE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BLAST
THROUGH OUR AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...INTRODUCING THE COLDEST
AIR MASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. HOWEVER...PERHAPS THE MORE
IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE AREA OF VERY STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING WAVE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOWER
LEVEL FORCING AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDER WAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. FORCING WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT LIKELY/CAT POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
EVEN THE NC PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN LIGHT OF THE INTENSITY OF THE FORCING. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL BE
PLUMMETING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MTNS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
EXTENDED NW FLOW SNOW EVENT...WITH SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT AT THE
OUTSET. PRECIP RATES COULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FRI NIGHT IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENN BORDER...WHICH SHOULD SEE VIRTUALLY ALL
SNOW DURING THIS EVENT.

BASED UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE NW FLOW (GREATER THAN 40 KTS AT
H8)...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE USUAL NW FLOW
AREAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE IT/S TOO EARLY TO GET TALK
ABOUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
SIGNIFICANT (I.E. AT LEAST ADVISORY-LEVEL) SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MTNS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EVEN IN THE NC
PIEDMONT...AS DEFORMATION ZONE GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS...ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY TRICKLE IN TO ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO
AN END.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INTENSIFIES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEPENING LOW. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 7-10 MG GRADIENT WITHIN STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FLOW...ALONG WITH H8 WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE
TYPICALLY INDICATIVE OF A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN...AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. TEMPS BY
SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING...A STRONG...ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT
LIFTS NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE REACHED THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...AND ON TUESDAY THIS
RIDGE CROSSES THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY IN
THE GFS...BUT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE IN THE ECMWF.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY LATE
TUESDAY...A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH OUR AREA...STARTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RAMP UP LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND 15 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL IN
A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY
MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...SKY COVER IS BREAKING UP AS FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA AND
PRECIP CHC DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF LOW VFR CIG
THRU EARLY EVENING...BUT CHC IS DIMINISHING AS WELL. THUNDER CHC
ALSO RAPIDLY DWINDLING. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER NE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SIMILAR TO KCLT. KAVL WILL SEE
LINGERING CLOUDS WITH GUSTY WINDS THRU THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL SHIFT NW...AND THEN NE OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY
FRIDAY EVENING. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-053.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...LG/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG/RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291850 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY I-85 AS I WRITE.
RADAR STILL INDICATES ONLY SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
STRONGER CONVECTION IS NOTED WELL TO THE SW OVER EASTERN GA MOVING
TOWARD THE SC MIDLANDS. THE GOING LOW POP FORECAST IS STILL WORKING
OUT AND IF ANY THUNDER DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. THE SPC MESOANAL SHOWS AROUND 500J/KG OF CAPE IN THAT AREA
AND THE 12Z NAM MAX`S IT OUT AROUND 800J/KG.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
COLD ADVECTION AND DECOUPLING WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
FROST FORMATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN THE FROST
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT IN AVERY...MITCHELL...YANCEY AND BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW MOUNTAINS HAVE ALREADY HAD
A FREEZE...SO THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED FOR THAT REGION.

ON THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
PROVIDING GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND MAX TEMPS A LITTLE SHY OF
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND EXTREMELY
DYNAMIC/NEG TILT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX THAT WILL
DIVE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BLAST
THROUGH OUR AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...INTRODUCING THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. HOWEVER...PERHAPS THE
MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE AREA OF VERY STRONG MID/UPPER
FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING WAVE...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL FORCING AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDER
WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. FORCING WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LIKELY/CAT POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DURING
THIS TIME...WHILE EVEN THE NC PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A SOLID
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN LIGHT OF THE INTENSITY OF THE FORCING.
MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL BE PLUMMETING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
MTNS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED NW FLOW SNOW EVENT...WITH
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT AT THE OUTSET. PRECIP RATES COULD BE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE FRI NIGHT IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENN
BORDER...WHICH SHOULD SEE VIRTUALLY ALL SNOW DURING THIS EVENT.

BASED UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE NW FLOW (GREATER THAN 40 KTS AT
H8)...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE USUAL NW FLOW
AREAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE IT/S TOO EARLY TO GET TALK
ABOUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
SIGNIFICANT (I.E. AT LEAST ADVISORY-LEVEL) SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MTNS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EVEN IN THE NC
PIEDMONT...AS DEFORMATION ZONE GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS...ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY TRICKLE IN TO ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO
AN END.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INTENSIFIES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEPENING LOW. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 7-10 MG GRADIENT WITHIN STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FLOW...ALONG WITH H8 WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE
TYPICALLY INDICATIVE OF A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN...AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. TEMPS BY
SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING...A STRONG...ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT
LIFTS NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE REACHED THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...AND ON TUESDAY THIS
RIDGE CROSSES THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY IN
THE GFS...BUT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE IN THE ECMWF.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY LATE
TUESDAY...A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH OUR AREA...STARTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RAMP UP LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND 15 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL IN
A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY
MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AIRFIELD IN THE 20-22Z
TIME PERIOD. SOME VFR CLOUDINESS IN THE 030-050 RANGE WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT. ALSO A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOOKS LIKE
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOW AND ANY THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AIRPORT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER NE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN THE
00Z-03Z TIME FRAME.

ELSEWHERE...RADAR SHOWS SCT LIGHT SHOWERS VICINITY I-85 ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT AND THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE 19Z-21Z
TIMEFRAME. EXPECT THAT ANY THUNDER WILL BE WELL SE OF AIRFIELDS.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL SHIFT NW...AND THEN NE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY
FRIDAY EVENING. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-053.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291850
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY I-85 AS I WRITE.
RADAR STILL INDICATES ONLY SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
STRONGER CONVECTION IS NOTED WELL TO THE SW OVER EASTERN GA MOVING
TOWARD THE SC MIDLANDS. THE GOING LOW POP FORECAST IS STILL WORKING
OUT AND IF ANY THUNDER DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. THE SPC MESOANAL SHOWS AROUND 500J/KG OF CAPE IN THAT AREA
AND THE 12Z NAM MAX`S IT OUT AROUND 800J/KG.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
COLD ADVECTION AND DECOUPLING WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
FROST FORMATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN THE FROST
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT IN AVERY...MITCHELL...YANCEY AND BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW MOUNTAINS HAVE ALREADY HAD
A FREEZE...SO THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED FOR THAT REGION.

ON THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
PROVIDING GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND MAX TEMPS A LITTLE SHY OF
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
000
TTAA00 KCAE 291844

THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND EXTREMELY
DYNAMIC/NEG TILT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX THAT WILL
DIVE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BLAST
THROUGH OUR AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...INTRODUCING THE COLDEST
AIR MASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. HOWEVER...PERHAPS THE MORE
IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE AREA OF VERY STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING WAVE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOWER
LEVEL FORCING AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDER WAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. FORCING WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT LIKELY/CAT POPS ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
EVEN THE NC PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IN LIGHT OF THE INTENSITY OF THE FORCING. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL BE
PLUMMETING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MTNS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
EXTENDED NW FLOW SNOW EVENT...WITH SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT AT THE
OUTSET. PRECIP RATES COULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FRI NIGHT IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENN BORDER...WHICH SHOULD SEE VIRTUALLY ALL
SNOW DURING THIS EVENT.

BASED UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE NW FLOW (GREATER THAN 40 KTS AT
H8)...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE USUAL NW FLOW
AREAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE IT/S TOO EARLY TO GET TALK
ABOUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
SIGNIFICANT (I.E. AT LEAST ADVISORY-LEVEL) SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MTNS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EVEN IN THE NC
PIEDMONT...AS DEFORMATION ZONE GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS...ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY TRICKLE IN TO ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO
AN END.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INTENSIFIES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEPENING LOW. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 7-10 MG GRADIENT WITHIN STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FLOW...ALONG WITH H8 WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE
TYPICALLY INDICATIVE OF A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN...AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. TEMPS BY
SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY EVENING...A STRONG...ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT
LIFTS NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE REACHED THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...AND ON TUESDAY THIS
RIDGE CROSSES THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY IN
THE GFS...BUT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE IN THE ECMWF.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY LATE
TUESDAY...A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH OUR AREA...STARTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RAMP UP LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND 15 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL IN
A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY
MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AIRFIELD IN THE 20-22Z
TIME PERIOD. SOME VFR CLOUDINESS IN THE 030-050 RANGE WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT. ALSO A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOOKS LIKE
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOW AND ANY THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AIRPORT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER NE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN THE
00Z-03Z TIME FRAME.

ELSEWHERE...RADAR SHOWS SCT LIGHT SHOWERS VICINITY I-85 ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT AND THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE 19Z-21Z
TIMEFRAME. EXPECT THAT ANY THUNDER WILL BE WELL SE OF AIRFIELDS.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL SHIFT NW...AND THEN NE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY
FRIDAY EVENING. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-053.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291715
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOLLOWED BY A COOL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THEN A COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM...COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
APPROACHING I-85 WITH ONLY SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOICATED WITH IT.
STRONGER CONVECTION IS NOTED WELL TO THE SW OVER EASTERN GA. LOOKS
LIKE THE GOING LOW POP FORECAST IS WORKING OUT AND IF ANY THUNDER
DOES DEVLOP IT WIL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE CAPES POOL TO
AROUND 800J/KG. TEMPS RUNNING WHERE CLOUD COVER IS ARE RUNNING
BEHIND THE FORECAST AND WILL ADJUST THAT TREND AND MAX TEMPS,

AS OF 940 AM...REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR IMAGES DEPICT A WEAKENING
LINE OF SHOWERS. THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE CAM`S IS THAT THIS
WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE SPC WRF DOES
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO REINVIGORATE SOME ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE ABOUR MID-AFTERNOON WHERE PLAN VIEW CAPES OFF
THE 06Z NAM INCREASE TO AROUND 700J/KG. CURRENT POPS HANDLE THE
PRECIP TREND. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS BASED ON LATEST
LAMP DATA.

AS OF 640 AM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF A
BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS ALONG THE TN LINE. THE BAND WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE MTNS THIS MORNING. THE GOING FORECAST APPEARS
IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND POPS. IN
ADDITION...LATEST MOS HAS TRENDED WARMER THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL
INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES.

AS OF 330 AM...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED A SLOW
MOVING RAIN BAN ACROSS EASTERN TN. THE GREATEST MOTION WITHIN THE
BAND REMAINS ALONG THE AL/TN LINE...APPEARS PARTIALLY SUPPORTED BY A
MID LEVEL S/W. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR...SAT...AND MODEL
TRENDS...I WILL DELAY -RA REACHING THE NC LINE UNTIL AROUND DAWN.
AFTER SUNRISE...THE SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...PUSHING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. CAMS INDICATE THAT
SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. I WILL
INDICATE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES...WITH CHC POPS
TIMED EASTWARD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...GREATEST VALUES APPROACHING A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ALONG THE TN LINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...THREATS
LIMITED TO LIGHTNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE CLOSE
TO NORMAL...MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70 EAST.

TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE...WINDS WILL WEAKEN...AND CAA
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REACH WESTERN KY/TN...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A BLEND
OF MOS INDICATES THAT INVERSE LAPSE RATES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MTNS. MIN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID 40S EAST. AREAS OF FROST APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MTN COUNTIES. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE AREAS WITH A REMAINING GROWING
SEASON WITH A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK DRY SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...AS A 500 MB TROF
DIGS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE 2-3
CATEGORIES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...DESPITE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE...AS GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACRS THE CWFA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. STILL...WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE 30S IN THE MTNS MTNS...COULD SEE PATCHY FROST...ESP IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 5-8 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A VERY ENERGETIC/COMPACT VORT MAX/CLOSED 500 MB
LOW...DIVING SE THRU THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
00Z/29 GFS LOOKED VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z/ECMWF...TAKING THE LOW
ACRS THE NRN NC MTNS TO NEAR CHARLOTTE BY 12Z SATURDAY. PER THE
WPC/S MODEL DISCUSSION...WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES 5.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL (CENTER OF 533-535 DAM) AND A 50-YEAR RETURN
PERIOD. AT 850 MB...TEMPS PLUMMET TO -5 TO -8C UNDER THE UPPER
LOW...WITH NW WINDS OF 40-55 KTS AND STRONG CAA. THE 00Z/29 ECMWF
HAS BACKED OFF THIS A BIT...BUT STILL SHOWS VERY COLD TEMPS AND
STRONG WINDS. DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXACT DEPTH AND
TRACK OF THE LOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON A
PERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW SHWRS AND WIND ADV TO HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS
IN THE MTNS. WITH SO MUCH ENERGY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...PROBABLY
WILL BE A FEW SHWRS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...ESP IN THE NC PIEDMONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THERE/S STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. BUT
AT LEAST 1-3" IN THE USUAL NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS LOOKS
LIKELY...HEADING INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY/S
READING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT SHUD BE COOLER FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG CAA CRANKS UP. TEMPS IN THE 20S MTNS AND 30S BELOW
ABOUT 3500 FT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STRONG CAA...GUSTY WINDS AND MTN NW FLOW
SNOW SHWRS WILL LINGER THRU THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS 10-15
DEG BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...WITH SOME LINGERING WIND/MIXING TO
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. WPC MIN TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE TOO COLD...BUT
EVEN JUST A 50/50 BLEND RESULTS IN FREEZING TEMPS ACRS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWFA. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON A FREEZE ACRS THE USUAL
THERMAL BELT FROM GSP TO THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY. IN ANY CASE...I
THINK I WILL CHANGE THE FROST MENTION IN THE HWO TO FREEZE
POSSIBLE...GIVEN EVEN WITH MID 30S...FROST WILL BE UNLIKELY GIVEN
THE VERY DRY AIR AND STILL SOME WINDS.

FROM SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND GRADUALLY MODERATE...AS AN UPPER RIDGE
QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
DEEP TROF. GOING WITH A DRY FCST WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AIRFIELD IN THE 20-22Z
TIME PERIOD. SOME VFR CLOUDINESS IN THE 030-050 RANGE WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT. ALSO A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOOKS LIKE
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOW AND ANY THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AIRPORT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER NE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN THE
00Z-03Z TIME FRAME.

ELSEWHERE...RADAR SHOWS SCT LIGHT SHOWERS VICINITY I-85 ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT AND THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE 19Z-21Z
TIMEFRAME. EXPECT THAT ANY THUNDER WILL BE WELL SE OF AIRFIELDS.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL SHIFT NW...AND THEN NE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY
FRIDAY EVENING. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-053.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291345
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOLLOWED BY A COOL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THEN A COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM...REGIONAL RADARS AND LOCAL RADAR IMAGES DEPICT A
WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS ENTER THE NC MOUNTAINS. THE CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE CAM`S IS THAT THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE SPC WRF DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO REINVIGORATE SOME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE ABOUT MID-
AFTERNOON WHERE PLAN VIEW CAPES OFF THE 06Z NAM INCREASE TO AROUND
700J/KG. CURRENT POPS HANDLE THE PRECIP TREND. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS BASED ON LATEST LAMP DATA.

AS OF 640 AM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF A
BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS ALONG THE TN LINE. THE BAND WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE MTNS THIS MORNING. THE GOING FORECAST APPEARS
IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND POPS. IN
ADDITION...LATEST MOS HAS TRENDED WARMER THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL
INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES.

AS OF 330 AM...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED A SLOW
MOVING RAIN BAN ACROSS EASTERN TN. THE GREATEST MOTION WITHIN THE
BAND REMAINS ALONG THE AL/TN LINE...APPEARS PARTIALLY SUPPORTED BY A
MID LEVEL S/W. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR...SAT...AND MODEL
TRENDS...I WILL DELAY -RA REACHING THE NC LINE UNTIL AROUND DAWN.
AFTER SUNRISE...THE SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...PUSHING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. CAMS INDICATE THAT
SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. I WILL
INDICATE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES...WITH CHC POPS
TIMED EASTWARD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...GREATEST VALUES APPROACHING A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ALONG THE TN LINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...THREATS
LIMITED TO LIGHTNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE CLOSE
TO NORMAL...MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70 EAST.

TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE...WINDS WILL WEAKEN...AND CAA
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REACH WESTERN KY/TN...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A BLEND
OF MOS INDICATES THAT INVERSE LAPSE RATES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MTNS. MIN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID 40S EAST. AREAS OF FROST APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MTN COUNTIES. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE AREAS WITH A REMAINING GROWING
SEASON WITH A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK DRY SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...AS A 500 MB TROF
DIGS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE 2-3
CATEGORIES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...DESPITE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE...AS GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACRS THE CWFA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. STILL...WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE 30S IN THE MTNS MTNS...COULD SEE PATCHY FROST...ESP IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 5-8 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A VERY ENERGETIC/COMPACT VORT MAX/CLOSED 500 MB
LOW...DIVING SE THRU THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
00Z/29 GFS LOOKED VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z/ECMWF...TAKING THE LOW
ACRS THE NRN NC MTNS TO NEAR CHARLOTTE BY 12Z SATURDAY. PER THE
WPC/S MODEL DISCUSSION...WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES 5.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL (CENTER OF 533-535 DAM) AND A 50-YEAR RETURN
PERIOD. AT 850 MB...TEMPS PLUMMET TO -5 TO -8C UNDER THE UPPER
LOW...WITH NW WINDS OF 40-55 KTS AND STRONG CAA. THE 00Z/29 ECMWF
HAS BACKED OFF THIS A BIT...BUT STILL SHOWS VERY COLD TEMPS AND
STRONG WINDS. DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXACT DEPTH AND
TRACK OF THE LOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON A
PERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW SHWRS AND WIND ADV TO HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS
IN THE MTNS. WITH SO MUCH ENERGY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...PROBABLY
WILL BE A FEW SHWRS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...ESP IN THE NC PIEDMONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THERE/S STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. BUT
AT LEAST 1-3" IN THE USUAL NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS LOOKS
LIKELY...HEADING INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY/S
READING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT SHUD BE COOLER FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG CAA CRANKS UP. TEMPS IN THE 20S MTNS AND 30S BELOW
ABOUT 3500 FT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STRONG CAA...GUSTY WINDS AND MTN NW FLOW
SNOW SHWRS WILL LINGER THRU THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS 10-15
DEG BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...WITH SOME LINGERING WIND/MIXING TO
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. WPC MIN TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE TOO COLD...BUT
EVEN JUST A 50/50 BLEND RESULTS IN FREEZING TEMPS ACRS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWFA. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON A FREEZE ACRS THE USUAL
THERMAL BELT FROM GSP TO THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY. IN ANY CASE...I
THINK I WILL CHANGE THE FROST MENTION IN THE HWO TO FREEZE
POSSIBLE...GIVEN EVEN WITH MID 30S...FROST WILL BE UNLIKELY GIVEN
THE VERY DRY AIR AND STILL SOME WINDS.

FROM SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND GRADUALLY MODERATE...AS AN UPPER RIDGE
QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
DEEP TROF. GOING WITH A DRY FCST WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE MORNING. THE SFC
COLD FRONT MAY PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 17Z TO
21Z. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...CLOUD BASES WILL LIKELY LOWER TO
SCT020 BKN035 WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT. AFTER 23Z...WINDS SHOULD
VEER AND BECOME STEADY FROM THE NNW WITH VFR CLOUDS.

ELSEWHERE...A SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN MAY REACH THE TN/NC LINE BY
12Z. THE BAND SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE
MORNING...SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WHILE
THINNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. I WILL TIME VCSH OR -SHRA AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF THE -SHRA ACROSS THE
MTNS IS 16 TO 18Z...TO 18-20Z ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR. AFTER
FROPA...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NNW AND CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS COVER OVER THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL ON RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-053.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities