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000
FXUS62 KGSP 022031
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
431 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 PM UPDATE...STILL NO SIGN YET OF DEVELOPING SHRA OVER THE MTNS
PER RADAR...BUT LATEST GOES IMAGERY HAS NOT INDICATED CU HAVE
PEAKED. MESO MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY THRU THE AFTN...BUT I DO NOT
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE LOW POPS THERE. TOUCHING UP
SKY/T/TD WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS...AND
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE BUBBLING ALREADY PER SATELLITE. ALSO SEEING
SOME CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE BETTER SURFACE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH
DOMINATING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...BUT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW
STRONG THE SHORTWAVE IS. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
VORTLOBE PUSHING INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS RESULTS IN MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND QUITE A BIT MORE
SURFACE MOISTURE AND OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL. NAM IS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER WITH THIS...SO LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS SURFACE WAVE/LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH THE GFS
IS DEFINITELY ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH THIS LOW. FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FOR NOW
THE LOW LOOKS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...REFER
TO NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM BUT WITH A TREND UPWARDS AS SURFACE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ALLOWING RETURN MOIST FLOW TO BEGIN SETTING UP TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
BEFORE THE WINDS RESPOND AGAIN TO THE LARGER SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS WE
TRANSITION INTO THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A
GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY...AND MORE
TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE
EASTERN UPPER TROF GRADUALLY LOSING AMPLITUDE THRU WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE COMES OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE APPROACH OF
THIS FEATURE ALLOWS SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE AREA
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE OUR POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY WITH SOME
AFTERNOON HEATING...WHICH SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL...AT LEAST ON
TUESDAY WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS
HOW THE DETAILS WORK OUT. THE MODELS HAVE A SHORT WAVE MOVING PAST
TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY THAT LEAVES A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHED
OUT TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GFS SEEMS UNDERDONE WITH ITS LACK OF PRECIP.
THE NAM MIGHT BE WRONG ON SOME OF THE DETAILS BUT THINK IT IS RIGHT
WITH DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON STORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR
THAT REASON...HAVE KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE NC PART OF
THE FCST AREA INTO THE EARLY EVE. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST... BUT ONCE AGAIN THE GFS IS UNIMPRESSED. THINK THE PATTERN
FAVORS POTENTIAL A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...SO WILL SHADE ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE WHOLE FCST AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. A BIT MORE CONVECTION SHOULD MEAN A BIT LOWER HIGH
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. SIMULTANEOUSLY
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON BOTH THURS AND FRI. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT
SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD EASTWARD AND HEIGHTS COULD BEGIN
TO RISE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT WRT THE SFC PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP MULTIPLE LOWS
OVER THE SE REGION AND THEN MOVE THEM OFFSHORE ON FRI AND SAT YET
THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING STILL DIFFER QUITE A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER.
AS SUCH...I LEANED MORE TOWARDS AN ECMWF/CMC TYPE SOLUTION. I KEPT
POPS AT A HIGH END SOLID CHANCE FOR MOST OF THURS AND FRI AND TAPER THEM
BACK FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LATER INTO THE WEEKEND WE MOVE...THE DRIER IT IS
LIKELY TO BE. TEMPS START OUT NEAR NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING ESE AND
SE THIS EVENING /CURRENT TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO S SIDE IS 00Z/.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FEW-SCT CU ON MONDAY...WITH LOWER BASES GENERALLY 4-
5KFT.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR. CONTINUED SCT CU AROUND 6-7KFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO KAVL...BUT TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO MENTION AT TAF SITES. LIGHT
WINDS VEERING GRADUALLY FROM ENE TO SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER MORE GREATLY AROUND FROM SE TODAY TO NW
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON FOG POTENTIAL THOUGH NOT
CONSISTENT ON ACTUAL VSBY VALUES. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR FOG AT KAND
AND KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. NAM WANTS TO GO ALL OUT WITH LOW CIGS AS
WELL BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED THAT SOLUTION. IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FEW-SCT CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...TDP/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...TDP/WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 022031
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
431 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 PM UPDATE...STILL NO SIGN YET OF DEVELOPING SHRA OVER THE MTNS
PER RADAR...BUT LATEST GOES IMAGERY HAS NOT INDICATED CU HAVE
PEAKED. MESO MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY THRU THE AFTN...BUT I DO NOT
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE LOW POPS THERE. TOUCHING UP
SKY/T/TD WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS...AND
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE BUBBLING ALREADY PER SATELLITE. ALSO SEEING
SOME CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE BETTER SURFACE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH
DOMINATING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...BUT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW
STRONG THE SHORTWAVE IS. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
VORTLOBE PUSHING INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS RESULTS IN MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND QUITE A BIT MORE
SURFACE MOISTURE AND OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL. NAM IS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER WITH THIS...SO LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS SURFACE WAVE/LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH THE GFS
IS DEFINITELY ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH THIS LOW. FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FOR NOW
THE LOW LOOKS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...REFER
TO NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM BUT WITH A TREND UPWARDS AS SURFACE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ALLOWING RETURN MOIST FLOW TO BEGIN SETTING UP TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
BEFORE THE WINDS RESPOND AGAIN TO THE LARGER SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS WE
TRANSITION INTO THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A
GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY...AND MORE
TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE
EASTERN UPPER TROF GRADUALLY LOSING AMPLITUDE THRU WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE COMES OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE APPROACH OF
THIS FEATURE ALLOWS SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE AREA
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE OUR POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY WITH SOME
AFTERNOON HEATING...WHICH SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL...AT LEAST ON
TUESDAY WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS
HOW THE DETAILS WORK OUT. THE MODELS HAVE A SHORT WAVE MOVING PAST
TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY THAT LEAVES A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHED
OUT TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GFS SEEMS UNDERDONE WITH ITS LACK OF PRECIP.
THE NAM MIGHT BE WRONG ON SOME OF THE DETAILS BUT THINK IT IS RIGHT
WITH DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON STORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR
THAT REASON...HAVE KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE NC PART OF
THE FCST AREA INTO THE EARLY EVE. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST... BUT ONCE AGAIN THE GFS IS UNIMPRESSED. THINK THE PATTERN
FAVORS POTENTIAL A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...SO WILL SHADE ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE WHOLE FCST AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. A BIT MORE CONVECTION SHOULD MEAN A BIT LOWER HIGH
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. SIMULTANEOUSLY
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON BOTH THURS AND FRI. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT
SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD EASTWARD AND HEIGHTS COULD BEGIN
TO RISE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT WRT THE SFC PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP MULTIPLE LOWS
OVER THE SE REGION AND THEN MOVE THEM OFFSHORE ON FRI AND SAT YET
THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING STILL DIFFER QUITE A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER.
AS SUCH...I LEANED MORE TOWARDS AN ECMWF/CMC TYPE SOLUTION. I KEPT
POPS AT A HIGH END SOLID CHANCE FOR MOST OF THURS AND FRI AND TAPER THEM
BACK FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LATER INTO THE WEEKEND WE MOVE...THE DRIER IT IS
LIKELY TO BE. TEMPS START OUT NEAR NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING ESE AND
SE THIS EVENING /CURRENT TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO S SIDE IS 00Z/.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FEW-SCT CU ON MONDAY...WITH LOWER BASES GENERALLY 4-
5KFT.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR. CONTINUED SCT CU AROUND 6-7KFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO KAVL...BUT TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO MENTION AT TAF SITES. LIGHT
WINDS VEERING GRADUALLY FROM ENE TO SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER MORE GREATLY AROUND FROM SE TODAY TO NW
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON FOG POTENTIAL THOUGH NOT
CONSISTENT ON ACTUAL VSBY VALUES. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR FOG AT KAND
AND KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. NAM WANTS TO GO ALL OUT WITH LOW CIGS AS
WELL BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED THAT SOLUTION. IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FEW-SCT CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...TDP/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...TDP/WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 022031
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
431 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 PM UPDATE...STILL NO SIGN YET OF DEVELOPING SHRA OVER THE MTNS
PER RADAR...BUT LATEST GOES IMAGERY HAS NOT INDICATED CU HAVE
PEAKED. MESO MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY THRU THE AFTN...BUT I DO NOT
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE LOW POPS THERE. TOUCHING UP
SKY/T/TD WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS...AND
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE BUBBLING ALREADY PER SATELLITE. ALSO SEEING
SOME CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE BETTER SURFACE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH
DOMINATING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...BUT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW
STRONG THE SHORTWAVE IS. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
VORTLOBE PUSHING INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS RESULTS IN MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND QUITE A BIT MORE
SURFACE MOISTURE AND OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL. NAM IS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER WITH THIS...SO LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS SURFACE WAVE/LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH THE GFS
IS DEFINITELY ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH THIS LOW. FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FOR NOW
THE LOW LOOKS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...REFER
TO NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM BUT WITH A TREND UPWARDS AS SURFACE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ALLOWING RETURN MOIST FLOW TO BEGIN SETTING UP TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
BEFORE THE WINDS RESPOND AGAIN TO THE LARGER SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS WE
TRANSITION INTO THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A
GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY...AND MORE
TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE
EASTERN UPPER TROF GRADUALLY LOSING AMPLITUDE THRU WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE COMES OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE APPROACH OF
THIS FEATURE ALLOWS SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE AREA
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE OUR POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY WITH SOME
AFTERNOON HEATING...WHICH SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL...AT LEAST ON
TUESDAY WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS
HOW THE DETAILS WORK OUT. THE MODELS HAVE A SHORT WAVE MOVING PAST
TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY THAT LEAVES A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHED
OUT TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GFS SEEMS UNDERDONE WITH ITS LACK OF PRECIP.
THE NAM MIGHT BE WRONG ON SOME OF THE DETAILS BUT THINK IT IS RIGHT
WITH DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON STORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR
THAT REASON...HAVE KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE NC PART OF
THE FCST AREA INTO THE EARLY EVE. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST... BUT ONCE AGAIN THE GFS IS UNIMPRESSED. THINK THE PATTERN
FAVORS POTENTIAL A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...SO WILL SHADE ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE WHOLE FCST AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. A BIT MORE CONVECTION SHOULD MEAN A BIT LOWER HIGH
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. SIMULTANEOUSLY
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON BOTH THURS AND FRI. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT
SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD EASTWARD AND HEIGHTS COULD BEGIN
TO RISE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT WRT THE SFC PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP MULTIPLE LOWS
OVER THE SE REGION AND THEN MOVE THEM OFFSHORE ON FRI AND SAT YET
THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING STILL DIFFER QUITE A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER.
AS SUCH...I LEANED MORE TOWARDS AN ECMWF/CMC TYPE SOLUTION. I KEPT
POPS AT A HIGH END SOLID CHANCE FOR MOST OF THURS AND FRI AND TAPER THEM
BACK FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LATER INTO THE WEEKEND WE MOVE...THE DRIER IT IS
LIKELY TO BE. TEMPS START OUT NEAR NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING ESE AND
SE THIS EVENING /CURRENT TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO S SIDE IS 00Z/.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FEW-SCT CU ON MONDAY...WITH LOWER BASES GENERALLY 4-
5KFT.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR. CONTINUED SCT CU AROUND 6-7KFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO KAVL...BUT TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO MENTION AT TAF SITES. LIGHT
WINDS VEERING GRADUALLY FROM ENE TO SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER MORE GREATLY AROUND FROM SE TODAY TO NW
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON FOG POTENTIAL THOUGH NOT
CONSISTENT ON ACTUAL VSBY VALUES. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR FOG AT KAND
AND KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. NAM WANTS TO GO ALL OUT WITH LOW CIGS AS
WELL BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED THAT SOLUTION. IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FEW-SCT CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...TDP/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...TDP/WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 021831
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS...AND
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE BUBBLING ALREADY PER SATELLITE. ALSO SEEING
SOME CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE BETTER SURFACE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH
DOMINATING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...BUT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW
STRONG THE SHORTWAVE IS. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
VORTLOBE PUSHING INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS RESULTS IN MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND QUITE A BIT MORE
SURFACE MOISTURE AND OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL. NAM IS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER WITH THIS...SO LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS SURFACE WAVE/LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH THE GFS
IS DEFINITELY ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH THIS LOW. FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FOR NOW
THE LOW LOOKS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...REFER
TO NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM BUT WITH A TREND UPWARDS AS SURFACE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ALLOWING RETURN MOIST FLOW TO BEGIN SETTING UP TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
BEFORE THE WINDS RESPOND AGAIN TO THE LARGER SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS WE
TRANSITION INTO THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A
GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY...AND MORE
TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE
EASTERN UPPER TROF GRADUALLY LOSING AMPLITUDE THRU WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE COMES OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE APPROACH OF
THIS FEATURE ALLOWS SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE AREA
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE OUR POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY WITH SOME
AFTERNOON HEATING...WHICH SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL...AT LEAST ON
TUESDAY WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS
HOW THE DETAILS WORK OUT. THE MODELS HAVE A SHORT WAVE MOVING PAST
TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY THAT LEAVES A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHED
OUT TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GFS SEEMS UNDERDONE WITH ITS LACK OF PRECIP.
THE NAM MIGHT BE WRONG ON SOME OF THE DETAILS BUT THINK IT IS RIGHT
WITH DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON STORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR
THAT REASON...HAVE KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE NC PART OF
THE FCST AREA INTO THE EARLY EVE. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST... BUT ONCE AGAIN THE GFS IS UNIMPRESSED. THINK THE PATTERN
FAVORS POTENTIAL A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...SO WILL SHADE ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE WHOLE FCST AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. A BIT MORE CONVECTION SHOULD MEAN A BIT LOWER HIGH
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. SIMULTANEOUSLY
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON BOTH THURS AND FRI. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT
SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD EASTWARD AND HEIGHTS COULD BEGIN
TO RISE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT WRT THE SFC PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP MULTIPLE LOWS
OVER THE SE REGION AND THEN MOVE THEM OFFSHORE ON FRI AND SAT YET
THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING STILL DIFFER QUITE A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER.
AS SUCH...I LEANED MORE TOWARDS AN ECMWF/CMC TYPE SOLUTION. I KEPT
POPS AT A HIGH END SOLID CHANCE FOR MOST OF THURS AND FRI AND TAPER THEM
BACK FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LATER INTO THE WEEKEND WE MOVE...THE DRIER IT IS
LIKELY TO BE. TEMPS START OUT NEAR NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED FEW TO OCCASIONALLY SCT
CU GENERALLY 7-8KFT LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY LOWER SOME AS
MIXING INCREASES...BUT COVERAGE IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE KCLT AREA DUE
TO DRY AIR AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. LIGHT ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING ESE AND SE THIS EVENING
/CURRENT TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO S SIDE IS 00Z/. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FEW-SCT CU ON MONDAY...WITH LOWER BASES GENERALLY 4-5KFT.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR. CONTINUED SCT CU AROUND 6-7KFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO KAVL...BUT TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO MENTION AT TAF SITES. LIGHT
WINDS VEERING GRADUALLY FROM ENE TO SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER MORE GREATLY AROUND FROM SE TODAY TO NW
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON FOG POTENTIAL THOUGH NOT
CONSISTENT ON ACTUAL VSBY VALUES. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR FOG AT KAND
AND KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. NAM WANTS TO GO ALL OUT WITH LOW CIGS AS
WELL BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED THAT SOLUTION. IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FEW-SCT CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KGSP 021831
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS...AND
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE BUBBLING ALREADY PER SATELLITE. ALSO SEEING
SOME CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE BETTER SURFACE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH
DOMINATING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...BUT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW
STRONG THE SHORTWAVE IS. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
VORTLOBE PUSHING INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS RESULTS IN MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND QUITE A BIT MORE
SURFACE MOISTURE AND OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL. NAM IS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER WITH THIS...SO LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS SURFACE WAVE/LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH THE GFS
IS DEFINITELY ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH THIS LOW. FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FOR NOW
THE LOW LOOKS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...REFER
TO NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM BUT WITH A TREND UPWARDS AS SURFACE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ALLOWING RETURN MOIST FLOW TO BEGIN SETTING UP TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
BEFORE THE WINDS RESPOND AGAIN TO THE LARGER SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS WE
TRANSITION INTO THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A
GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY...AND MORE
TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE
EASTERN UPPER TROF GRADUALLY LOSING AMPLITUDE THRU WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE COMES OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE APPROACH OF
THIS FEATURE ALLOWS SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE AREA
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE OUR POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY WITH SOME
AFTERNOON HEATING...WHICH SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL...AT LEAST ON
TUESDAY WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS
HOW THE DETAILS WORK OUT. THE MODELS HAVE A SHORT WAVE MOVING PAST
TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY THAT LEAVES A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHED
OUT TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GFS SEEMS UNDERDONE WITH ITS LACK OF PRECIP.
THE NAM MIGHT BE WRONG ON SOME OF THE DETAILS BUT THINK IT IS RIGHT
WITH DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON STORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR
THAT REASON...HAVE KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE NC PART OF
THE FCST AREA INTO THE EARLY EVE. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST... BUT ONCE AGAIN THE GFS IS UNIMPRESSED. THINK THE PATTERN
FAVORS POTENTIAL A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...SO WILL SHADE ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE WHOLE FCST AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. A BIT MORE CONVECTION SHOULD MEAN A BIT LOWER HIGH
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. SIMULTANEOUSLY
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON BOTH THURS AND FRI. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT
SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD EASTWARD AND HEIGHTS COULD BEGIN
TO RISE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT WRT THE SFC PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP MULTIPLE LOWS
OVER THE SE REGION AND THEN MOVE THEM OFFSHORE ON FRI AND SAT YET
THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING STILL DIFFER QUITE A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER.
AS SUCH...I LEANED MORE TOWARDS AN ECMWF/CMC TYPE SOLUTION. I KEPT
POPS AT A HIGH END SOLID CHANCE FOR MOST OF THURS AND FRI AND TAPER THEM
BACK FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LATER INTO THE WEEKEND WE MOVE...THE DRIER IT IS
LIKELY TO BE. TEMPS START OUT NEAR NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED FEW TO OCCASIONALLY SCT
CU GENERALLY 7-8KFT LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY LOWER SOME AS
MIXING INCREASES...BUT COVERAGE IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE KCLT AREA DUE
TO DRY AIR AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. LIGHT ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING ESE AND SE THIS EVENING
/CURRENT TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO S SIDE IS 00Z/. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FEW-SCT CU ON MONDAY...WITH LOWER BASES GENERALLY 4-5KFT.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR. CONTINUED SCT CU AROUND 6-7KFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO KAVL...BUT TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO MENTION AT TAF SITES. LIGHT
WINDS VEERING GRADUALLY FROM ENE TO SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL VEER MORE GREATLY AROUND FROM SE TODAY TO NW
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON FOG POTENTIAL THOUGH NOT
CONSISTENT ON ACTUAL VSBY VALUES. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR FOG AT KAND
AND KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK. NAM WANTS TO GO ALL OUT WITH LOW CIGS AS
WELL BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED THAT SOLUTION. IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FEW-SCT CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...TDP





000
FXUS62 KGSP 021459
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1059 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN
FORECAST SO HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER GRIDS IN
GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST PART. HRRR AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE DO STILL
WANT TO DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
DESPITE THE DRY DEWPOINTS...BUT ENOUGH LAPSE RATE ALOFT FOR SOME
MINIMAL CAPE VALUES...SO HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

1045 UTC UPDATED...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS
CROSSING THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR AND MOVING INTO SW SN AND NE GA.
WINDS WERE UPDATED FROM THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. FEW TO OCCASIONALLY SCT CU GENERALLY 8-9KFT LATE THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY LOWER SOME AS MIXING INCREASES...BUT
COVERAGE IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG.
INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NE TODAY....VEERING SE TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS LEANING
TOWARD DAYBREAK FOG MONDAY MORNING AT SURROUNDING SITES...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE IS LESS PESSIMISTIC.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SO FAR MOUNTAIN FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO VALLEYS
WELL SW OF KAVL. HIGH VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY AS CIRRUS
MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL COULD OCCUR IN BETTER INSTABILITY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY
WILL VEER FROM NW TO SE TODAY AND RETURN TO NW TONIGHT...AND KHKY
WHERE THEY BACK FROM NE TO N TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG ON MONDAY...BUT THE BEST BET IS INITIALLY
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COOL AIR WILL POOL.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT/TDP





000
FXUS62 KGSP 021459
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1059 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN
FORECAST SO HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER GRIDS IN
GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST PART. HRRR AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE DO STILL
WANT TO DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
DESPITE THE DRY DEWPOINTS...BUT ENOUGH LAPSE RATE ALOFT FOR SOME
MINIMAL CAPE VALUES...SO HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

1045 UTC UPDATED...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS
CROSSING THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR AND MOVING INTO SW SN AND NE GA.
WINDS WERE UPDATED FROM THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. FEW TO OCCASIONALLY SCT CU GENERALLY 8-9KFT LATE THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY LOWER SOME AS MIXING INCREASES...BUT
COVERAGE IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG.
INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NE TODAY....VEERING SE TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS LEANING
TOWARD DAYBREAK FOG MONDAY MORNING AT SURROUNDING SITES...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE IS LESS PESSIMISTIC.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SO FAR MOUNTAIN FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO VALLEYS
WELL SW OF KAVL. HIGH VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY AS CIRRUS
MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL COULD OCCUR IN BETTER INSTABILITY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY
WILL VEER FROM NW TO SE TODAY AND RETURN TO NW TONIGHT...AND KHKY
WHERE THEY BACK FROM NE TO N TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG ON MONDAY...BUT THE BEST BET IS INITIALLY
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COOL AIR WILL POOL.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT/TDP




000
FXUS62 KGSP 021459
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1059 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN
FORECAST SO HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER GRIDS IN
GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST PART. HRRR AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE DO STILL
WANT TO DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
DESPITE THE DRY DEWPOINTS...BUT ENOUGH LAPSE RATE ALOFT FOR SOME
MINIMAL CAPE VALUES...SO HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

1045 UTC UPDATED...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS
CROSSING THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR AND MOVING INTO SW SN AND NE GA.
WINDS WERE UPDATED FROM THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. FEW TO OCCASIONALLY SCT CU GENERALLY 8-9KFT LATE THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY LOWER SOME AS MIXING INCREASES...BUT
COVERAGE IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG.
INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NE TODAY....VEERING SE TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS LEANING
TOWARD DAYBREAK FOG MONDAY MORNING AT SURROUNDING SITES...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE IS LESS PESSIMISTIC.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SO FAR MOUNTAIN FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO VALLEYS
WELL SW OF KAVL. HIGH VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY AS CIRRUS
MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL COULD OCCUR IN BETTER INSTABILITY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY
WILL VEER FROM NW TO SE TODAY AND RETURN TO NW TONIGHT...AND KHKY
WHERE THEY BACK FROM NE TO N TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG ON MONDAY...BUT THE BEST BET IS INITIALLY
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COOL AIR WILL POOL.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT/TDP




000
FXUS62 KGSP 021045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATED...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS
CROSSING THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR AND MOVING INTO SW SN AND NE GA.
WINDS WERE UPDATED FROM THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
FIELD...REDUCING THE CHANCE OF HIGH CIGS THIS MORNING. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 6000 FEET TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A CIG. INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR CONVECTION. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE TODAY....VEERING SE TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LEANING TOWARD DAYBREAK FOG MONDAY MORNING AT SURROUNDING
SITES...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS PESSIMISTIC.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SO FAR MOUNTAIN FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO VALLEYS
WELL SW OF KAVL. HIGH VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY AS CIRRUS
MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL COULD OCCUR IN BETTER INSTABILITY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY
WILL VEER FROM NW TO SE TODAY AND RETURN TO NW TONIGHT...AND KHKY
WHERE THEY BACK FROM NE TO N TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG ON MONDAY...BUT THE BEST BET IS INITIALLY
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COOL AIR WILL POOL.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 021045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATED...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS
CROSSING THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR AND MOVING INTO SW SN AND NE GA.
WINDS WERE UPDATED FROM THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
FIELD...REDUCING THE CHANCE OF HIGH CIGS THIS MORNING. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 6000 FEET TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A CIG. INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR CONVECTION. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE TODAY....VEERING SE TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LEANING TOWARD DAYBREAK FOG MONDAY MORNING AT SURROUNDING
SITES...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS PESSIMISTIC.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SO FAR MOUNTAIN FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO VALLEYS
WELL SW OF KAVL. HIGH VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY AS CIRRUS
MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL COULD OCCUR IN BETTER INSTABILITY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY
WILL VEER FROM NW TO SE TODAY AND RETURN TO NW TONIGHT...AND KHKY
WHERE THEY BACK FROM NE TO N TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG ON MONDAY...BUT THE BEST BET IS INITIALLY
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COOL AIR WILL POOL.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 020727
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF A COASTAL FRONT
WILL NOT SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT AROUND 6000 FT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
BEFORE MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK
FOG...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...VFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL PER THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM N TO NE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER SE TODAY AND RETURN TO N TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 020727
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF A COASTAL FRONT
WILL NOT SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT AROUND 6000 FT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
BEFORE MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK
FOG...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...VFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL PER THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM N TO NE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER SE TODAY AND RETURN TO N TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY OVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE. AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN FOG WERE UPDATED FORM THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF SHALLOW MIXING LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/QUIET EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AS BEFORE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS STILL ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE
AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SERIES OF FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH
THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT
APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC PATTERN FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP SOME SORT OF LOW
ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SAT. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON ANY
SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS
INCREASE FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL
REMAIN AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND
THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF A COASTAL FRONT
WILL NOT SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT AROUND 6000 FT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
BEFORE MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK
FOG...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...VFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL PER THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM N TO NE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER SE TODAY AND RETURN TO N TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            04-10Z        10-16Z        16-22Z        22-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY OVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE. AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN FOG WERE UPDATED FORM THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF SHALLOW MIXING LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/QUIET EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AS BEFORE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS STILL ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE
AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SERIES OF FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH
THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT
APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC PATTERN FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP SOME SORT OF LOW
ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SAT. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON ANY
SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS
INCREASE FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL
REMAIN AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND
THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF A COASTAL FRONT
WILL NOT SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT AROUND 6000 FT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
BEFORE MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK
FOG...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...VFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL PER THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM N TO NE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER SE TODAY AND RETURN TO N TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            04-10Z        10-16Z        16-22Z        22-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 020516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY OVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE. AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN FOG WERE UPDATED FORM THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF SHALLOW MIXING LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/QUIET EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AS BEFORE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS STILL ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE
AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SERIES OF FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH
THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT
APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC PATTERN FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP SOME SORT OF LOW
ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SAT. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON ANY
SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS
INCREASE FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL
REMAIN AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND
THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF A COASTAL FRONT
WILL NOT SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT AROUND 6000 FT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
BEFORE MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK
FOG...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...VFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL PER THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM N TO NE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER SE TODAY AND RETURN TO N TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            04-10Z        10-16Z        16-22Z        22-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 020516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY OVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE. AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN FOG WERE UPDATED FORM THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF SHALLOW MIXING LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/QUIET EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AS BEFORE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS STILL ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE
AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SERIES OF FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH
THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT
APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC PATTERN FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP SOME SORT OF LOW
ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SAT. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON ANY
SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS
INCREASE FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL
REMAIN AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND
THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF A COASTAL FRONT
WILL NOT SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AT AROUND 6000 FT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
BEFORE MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN THEY VEER SW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT DAYBREAK
FOG...MAINLY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...VFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL PER THE LAMP
GUIDANCE. LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM N TO NE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL
VEER SE TODAY AND RETURN TO N TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            04-10Z        10-16Z        16-22Z        22-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 020249
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1049 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF SHALLOW MIXING LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/QUIET EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AS BEFORE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS STILL ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE
AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SERIES OF FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH
THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT
APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC PATTERN FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP SOME SORT OF LOW
ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SAT. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON ANY
SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS
INCREASE FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL
REMAIN AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND
THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.  THAT
SAID...NAM RH/SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE POSSIBLE 080-090 FEW STRATUS
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR BY EARLY/MID MORNING...THUS ALL ADJACENT
SITES HAVE SUCH HOWEVER SHOULDNT BE OF ANY IMPACT.  OTHER THAN BRIEF
CHANNELED GUSTING AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT ALL THE WHILE SLOWLY VEERING EAST BY
MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY AT AROUND 6-10KTS.  STILL SEEING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH MID LEVEL INVERSION ON SUNDAY THEREFORE ALL
TAFS ONCE AGAIN CARRY LOW VFR FEW/SCT CU.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 020249
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1049 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF SHALLOW MIXING LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/QUIET EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AS BEFORE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS STILL ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE
AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROF HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SERIES OF FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH
THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT
APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC PATTERN FOR
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP SOME SORT OF LOW
ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SAT. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON ANY
SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS
INCREASE FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL
REMAIN AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND
THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.  THAT
SAID...NAM RH/SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE POSSIBLE 080-090 FEW STRATUS
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR BY EARLY/MID MORNING...THUS ALL ADJACENT
SITES HAVE SUCH HOWEVER SHOULDNT BE OF ANY IMPACT.  OTHER THAN BRIEF
CHANNELED GUSTING AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT ALL THE WHILE SLOWLY VEERING EAST BY
MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY AT AROUND 6-10KTS.  STILL SEEING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH MID LEVEL INVERSION ON SUNDAY THEREFORE ALL
TAFS ONCE AGAIN CARRY LOW VFR FEW/SCT CU.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 012329
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
729 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
ASIDE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT
FOR MOST RECENT OBS/SAT...NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
VERY NICE EARLY AUGUST EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF FAIRLY
POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE
LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SFC PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF LOW ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP
ANOTHER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SAT. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS INCREASE
FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL REMAIN AT SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.  THAT
SAID...NAM RH/SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE POSSIBLE 080-090 FEW STRATUS
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR BY EARLY/MID MORNING...THUS ALL ADJACENT
SITES HAVE SUCH HOWEVER SHOULDNT BE OF ANY IMPACT.  OTHER THAN BRIEF
CHANNELED GUSTING AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT ALL THE WHILE SLOWLY VEERING EAST BY
MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY AT AROUND 6-10KTS.  STILL SEEING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH MID LEVEL INVERSION ON SUNDAY THEREFORE ALL
TAFS ONCE AGAIN CARRY LOW VFR FEW/SCT CU.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 012329
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
729 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
ASIDE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT
FOR MOST RECENT OBS/SAT...NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
VERY NICE EARLY AUGUST EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF FAIRLY
POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE
LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SFC PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF LOW ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP
ANOTHER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SAT. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS INCREASE
FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL REMAIN AT SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.  THAT
SAID...NAM RH/SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE POSSIBLE 080-090 FEW STRATUS
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR BY EARLY/MID MORNING...THUS ALL ADJACENT
SITES HAVE SUCH HOWEVER SHOULDNT BE OF ANY IMPACT.  OTHER THAN BRIEF
CHANNELED GUSTING AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT ALL THE WHILE SLOWLY VEERING EAST BY
MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY AT AROUND 6-10KTS.  STILL SEEING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH MID LEVEL INVERSION ON SUNDAY THEREFORE ALL
TAFS ONCE AGAIN CARRY LOW VFR FEW/SCT CU.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 012329
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
729 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
ASIDE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT
FOR MOST RECENT OBS/SAT...NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
VERY NICE EARLY AUGUST EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF FAIRLY
POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE
LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SFC PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF LOW ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP
ANOTHER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SAT. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS INCREASE
FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL REMAIN AT SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.  THAT
SAID...NAM RH/SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE POSSIBLE 080-090 FEW STRATUS
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR BY EARLY/MID MORNING...THUS ALL ADJACENT
SITES HAVE SUCH HOWEVER SHOULDNT BE OF ANY IMPACT.  OTHER THAN BRIEF
CHANNELED GUSTING AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT ALL THE WHILE SLOWLY VEERING EAST BY
MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY AT AROUND 6-10KTS.  STILL SEEING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH MID LEVEL INVERSION ON SUNDAY THEREFORE ALL
TAFS ONCE AGAIN CARRY LOW VFR FEW/SCT CU.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 012329
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
729 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
ASIDE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT
FOR MOST RECENT OBS/SAT...NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
VERY NICE EARLY AUGUST EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF FAIRLY
POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE
LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SFC PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF LOW ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP
ANOTHER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SAT. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS INCREASE
FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL REMAIN AT SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.  THAT
SAID...NAM RH/SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE POSSIBLE 080-090 FEW STRATUS
ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR BY EARLY/MID MORNING...THUS ALL ADJACENT
SITES HAVE SUCH HOWEVER SHOULDNT BE OF ANY IMPACT.  OTHER THAN BRIEF
CHANNELED GUSTING AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
REMAIN LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT ALL THE WHILE SLOWLY VEERING EAST BY
MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY AT AROUND 6-10KTS.  STILL SEEING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH MID LEVEL INVERSION ON SUNDAY THEREFORE ALL
TAFS ONCE AGAIN CARRY LOW VFR FEW/SCT CU.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 012035
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
435 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL WITH ONLY A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS SPREAD ABOUT THE REGION.  WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH SOME LOW END GUSTS OCCURRING IN THE MTN
VALLEYS DUE TO CHANNELING.  TWEAKED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH SKY IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST AS IT WAS FOR THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF FAIRLY
POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE
LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SFC PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF LOW ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP
ANOTHER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SAT. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS INCREASE
FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL REMAIN AT SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011842
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF FAIRLY
POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE
LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SFC PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF LOW ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP
ANOTHER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SAT. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS INCREASE
FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL REMAIN AT SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011842
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THRU THE NEAR
TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LARGE RIDGE
ACRS THE WEST. AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
SETTLED IN ACRS THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODELS HINT AT SOME RETURN OF LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS...AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE NC MTNS. THIS AND THE SREF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS THAT SHOW
THIS. I WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE TYPICAL CENTRAL AND SW NC
MTN PEAKS THAT OFTEN STILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SPITE OF DRY
GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
AT LEAST INTO MONDAY...THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
IMPROVE. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WE
SHOULD STILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF WITH A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WOULD CUT
BACK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE NAM ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN FRINGE OF FCST AREA...
WHICH THE MODEL ACTS UPON WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THIS
WAS DISCOUNTED AS BEING AN OUTLIER. THE FCST WAS KEPT DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THRU TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT THE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG
DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THE INCREASED BUOYANCY COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGER SUGGESTS A BETTER CHC FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS...AT LEAST OVER THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT RH WILL BE LOW ENOUGH SO AS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF HELPS
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF FAIRLY
POTENT LOOKING EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM
THE WEST AND NW. AT THE SFC...THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE SE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SLY FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE
LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SFC PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF LOW ON THRUS AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY FRI AND THEN DEVELOP
ANOTHER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST ON FRI AND END WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SAT. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION SO I OPTED FOR AN OVERALL BLEND. POPS INCREASE
FOR THURS AND FRI AND TAPER BACK AGAIN ON SAT BUT STILL REMAIN AT SLIGHT
TO SOLID CHANCE. TEMPS START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011736
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...UPDATED THE FCST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ALSO UPDATED THE
DEWPTS/RH FOR THIS AFTN. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS MAY STILL NOT
BE LOW ENUF...AS DEWPTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S IN SPOTS
(DRIER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE). WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MARGINALLY
GUSTY ACRS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011736
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...UPDATED THE FCST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ALSO UPDATED THE
DEWPTS/RH FOR THIS AFTN. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS MAY STILL NOT
BE LOW ENUF...AS DEWPTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S IN SPOTS
(DRIER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE). WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MARGINALLY
GUSTY ACRS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011736
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...UPDATED THE FCST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ALSO UPDATED THE
DEWPTS/RH FOR THIS AFTN. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS MAY STILL NOT
BE LOW ENUF...AS DEWPTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S IN SPOTS
(DRIER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE). WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MARGINALLY
GUSTY ACRS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011736
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...UPDATED THE FCST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ALSO UPDATED THE
DEWPTS/RH FOR THIS AFTN. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS MAY STILL NOT
BE LOW ENUF...AS DEWPTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S IN SPOTS
(DRIER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE). WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MARGINALLY
GUSTY ACRS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE
OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE
OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE
OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE
OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010724
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE
OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WIL REMAIN OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODE TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE MAIN CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 6000 FT...BUT SKY COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CEILING. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL BACK TO
NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRY AIR NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST
WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION OR FOG BASED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT
6000 FT...AND SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST OVER UPSTATE SC AND
THE SW NC MOUNTAINS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR CEILINGS...AND MODEL TIME HEIGHTS  SHOW LESS
MOISTURE THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE
TO NW.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 010724
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE
OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WIL REMAIN OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODE TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE MAIN CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 6000 FT...BUT SKY COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CEILING. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL BACK TO
NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRY AIR NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST
WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION OR FOG BASED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT
6000 FT...AND SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST OVER UPSTATE SC AND
THE SW NC MOUNTAINS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR CEILINGS...AND MODEL TIME HEIGHTS  SHOW LESS
MOISTURE THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE
TO NW.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASED SKY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AS LATEST OBS/IR INDICATE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATUS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INTRUDING HIGH.  REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WHICH CONSISTED OF MINOR
INCREASES BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOUD LAYER WERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODE TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE MAIN CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 6000 FT...BUT SKY COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CEILING. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL BACK TO
NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRY AIR NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST
WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION OR FOG BASED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT
6000 FT...AND SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST OVER UPSTATE SC AND
THE SW NC MOUNTAINS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR CEILINGS...AND MODEL TIME HEIGHTS  SHOW LESS
MOISTURE THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE
TO NW.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASED SKY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AS LATEST OBS/IR INDICATE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATUS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INTRUDING HIGH.  REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WHICH CONSISTED OF MINOR
INCREASES BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOUD LAYER WERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODE TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE MAIN CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 6000 FT...BUT SKY COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CEILING. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL BACK TO
NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRY AIR NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST
WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION OR FOG BASED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT
6000 FT...AND SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST OVER UPSTATE SC AND
THE SW NC MOUNTAINS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR CEILINGS...AND MODEL TIME HEIGHTS  SHOW LESS
MOISTURE THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE
TO NW.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASED SKY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AS LATEST OBS/IR INDICATE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATUS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INTRUDING HIGH.  REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WHICH CONSISTED OF MINOR
INCREASES BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOUD LAYER WERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODE TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE MAIN CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 6000 FT...BUT SKY COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CEILING. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL BACK TO
NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRY AIR NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST
WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION OR FOG BASED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT
6000 FT...AND SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST OVER UPSTATE SC AND
THE SW NC MOUNTAINS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR CEILINGS...AND MODEL TIME HEIGHTS  SHOW LESS
MOISTURE THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE
TO NW.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 010241
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASED SKY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AS LATEST OBS/IR INDICATE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATUS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INTRUDING HIGH.  REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WHICH CONSISTED OF MINOR
INCREASES BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOUD LAYER WERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING LEADING
TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/MOSGUIDE DO FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AT KAVL...GENERALLY AROUND 6-8KFT.
THE SAME LOW VFR STRATUS IS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE SC UPSTATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PERSISTENCE THUS AS
WITH KAVL...KEPT ONLY MENTION OF FEW 060-070 IN THE SC TAFS.  BEYOND
THAT EXPECTING A FAIRLY NICE TAF DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SC SITES WITH
SKC POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010241
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASED SKY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AS LATEST OBS/IR INDICATE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATUS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INTRUDING HIGH.  REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WHICH CONSISTED OF MINOR
INCREASES BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOUD LAYER WERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING LEADING
TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/MOSGUIDE DO FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AT KAVL...GENERALLY AROUND 6-8KFT.
THE SAME LOW VFR STRATUS IS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE SC UPSTATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PERSISTENCE THUS AS
WITH KAVL...KEPT ONLY MENTION OF FEW 060-070 IN THE SC TAFS.  BEYOND
THAT EXPECTING A FAIRLY NICE TAF DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SC SITES WITH
SKC POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010241
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASED SKY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AS LATEST OBS/IR INDICATE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATUS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INTRUDING HIGH.  REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WHICH CONSISTED OF MINOR
INCREASES BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOUD LAYER WERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING LEADING
TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/MOSGUIDE DO FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AT KAVL...GENERALLY AROUND 6-8KFT.
THE SAME LOW VFR STRATUS IS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE SC UPSTATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PERSISTENCE THUS AS
WITH KAVL...KEPT ONLY MENTION OF FEW 060-070 IN THE SC TAFS.  BEYOND
THAT EXPECTING A FAIRLY NICE TAF DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SC SITES WITH
SKC POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 010241
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASED SKY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AS LATEST OBS/IR INDICATE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY STRATUS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INTRUDING HIGH.  REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WHICH CONSISTED OF MINOR
INCREASES BENEATH THE A FORE MENTIONED CLOUD LAYER WERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING LEADING
TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/MOSGUIDE DO FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AT KAVL...GENERALLY AROUND 6-8KFT.
THE SAME LOW VFR STRATUS IS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE SC UPSTATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PERSISTENCE THUS AS
WITH KAVL...KEPT ONLY MENTION OF FEW 060-070 IN THE SC TAFS.  BEYOND
THAT EXPECTING A FAIRLY NICE TAF DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SC SITES WITH
SKC POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 312316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER NICE EVENING IN STORE FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR WEAK AND SHORT LIVED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...THUS OPTED TO
INTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS FOR SUCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED POPS/TEMPS AND SKY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT
OBS/SAT...AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING LEADING
TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/MOSGUIDE DO FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AT KAVL...GENERALLY AROUND 6-8KFT.
THE SAME LOW VFR STRATUS IS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE SC UPSTATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PERSISTENCE THUS AS
WITH KAVL...KEPT ONLY MENTION OF FEW 060-070 IN THE SC TAFS.  BEYOND
THAT EXPECTING A FAIRLY NICE TAF DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SC SITES WITH
SKC POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 312316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER NICE EVENING IN STORE FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR WEAK AND SHORT LIVED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...THUS OPTED TO
INTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS FOR SUCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED POPS/TEMPS AND SKY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT
OBS/SAT...AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING LEADING
TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/MOSGUIDE DO FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AT KAVL...GENERALLY AROUND 6-8KFT.
THE SAME LOW VFR STRATUS IS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE SC UPSTATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PERSISTENCE THUS AS
WITH KAVL...KEPT ONLY MENTION OF FEW 060-070 IN THE SC TAFS.  BEYOND
THAT EXPECTING A FAIRLY NICE TAF DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SC SITES WITH
SKC POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 312316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER NICE EVENING IN STORE FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR WEAK AND SHORT LIVED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...THUS OPTED TO
INTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS FOR SUCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED POPS/TEMPS AND SKY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT
OBS/SAT...AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED AS IT WAS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING LEADING
TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS/MOSGUIDE DO FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AT KAVL...GENERALLY AROUND 6-8KFT.
THE SAME LOW VFR STRATUS IS PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GA AND
THE SC UPSTATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PERSISTENCE THUS AS
WITH KAVL...KEPT ONLY MENTION OF FEW 060-070 IN THE SC TAFS.  BEYOND
THAT EXPECTING A FAIRLY NICE TAF DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE SC SITES WITH
SKC POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NC.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 312023
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM EDT FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
MINIMAL FAIR WX CU PRESENT.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WHERE SOME ENHANCED CU PERSISTS.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER THIS REGION...THUS DID INTRODUCE A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FCST REMAINS ON TRACK AND THEREFORE NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED/MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG AT KHKY BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING SO EXPECT AT BEST FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE LIMITED BY THAT
POINT. COULD SEE PASSING CIRRUS OFF AND ON AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY N TO NE WITH ONLY BRIEF SWINGS TOWARD E...BUT
REMAINING ON THE N SIDE. COULD SEE SOME OFF-AND-ON LOW-END GUSTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TO GENERALLY 5KT OR BELOW EVERYWHERE.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...TDP





000
FXUS62 KGSP 312023
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM EDT FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
MINIMAL FAIR WX CU PRESENT.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WHERE SOME ENHANCED CU PERSISTS.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER THIS REGION...THUS DID INTRODUCE A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FCST REMAINS ON TRACK AND THEREFORE NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED/MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG AT KHKY BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING SO EXPECT AT BEST FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE LIMITED BY THAT
POINT. COULD SEE PASSING CIRRUS OFF AND ON AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY N TO NE WITH ONLY BRIEF SWINGS TOWARD E...BUT
REMAINING ON THE N SIDE. COULD SEE SOME OFF-AND-ON LOW-END GUSTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TO GENERALLY 5KT OR BELOW EVERYWHERE.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311826
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG AT KHKY BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING SO EXPECT AT BEST FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE LIMITED BY THAT
POINT. COULD SEE PASSING CIRRUS OFF AND ON AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY N TO NE WITH ONLY BRIEF SWINGS TOWARD E...BUT
REMAINING ON THE N SIDE. COULD SEE SOME OFF-AND-ON LOW-END GUSTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TO GENERALLY 5KT OR BELOW EVERYWHERE.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311826
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUIET NEAR-TERM PERIOD IN STORE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. UPPER LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A COL AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO REAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT.

SOME OF THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AT AFD TIME THERE IS ONE SHOWER
THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS RABUN COUNTY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ENOUGH
POPS IN GRIDS TO WARRANT SHOWER OR THUNDER MENTION BUT DID KEEP POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP
GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH VERY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COMPETING WITH VERY
WEEK DOWNSLOPING...AND THE TWO PROBABLY JUST ABOUT CANCELING EACH
OTHER OUT. THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE DUE TO THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING IT TO FEEL ALMOST PLEASANT OUTSIDE. ENJOY THE
NICE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STILL LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY QUIET FOR
MID SUMMER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DOWN OVER THE
SRN APPLACHIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FALLING APART
ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HEAT THREAT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWFA IN THE
TRACK OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH INSTABILITY. POPS EARLY
THE WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE KEPT MAINLY TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE...SO POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROPAGATE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MID-WEEK...THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO STALL AND BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BEFORE IT IS ALLOWED TO
INFLUENCE THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SOME LEVEL OF FORCING...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HAVING BUILT
BACK INTO THE AREA...POPS WERE INCREASED BACK TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GENERAL HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FALLING BACK TO JUST
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG AT KHKY BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING SO EXPECT AT BEST FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE LIMITED BY THAT
POINT. COULD SEE PASSING CIRRUS OFF AND ON AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY N TO NE WITH ONLY BRIEF SWINGS TOWARD E...BUT
REMAINING ON THE N SIDE. COULD SEE SOME OFF-AND-ON LOW-END GUSTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TO GENERALLY 5KT OR BELOW EVERYWHERE.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...TDP





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311743
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
143 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST RUNNING PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
DESPITE THE HEAT...A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH DEWPOINTS LOWER IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE
GRIDS THIS MORNING...HAVE UPDATED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON
TRENDS AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHS MIGHT BE JUST A TOUCH LOWER
THAN FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT LOOKING AT THE HRRR AND OTHER CAMS
SEEMS WE WILL BE PRETTY HARD-PRESSED TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FORM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE. POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN PER
TRENDS.

AT 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN USA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA...STALLING NEAR THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN JUST SE OF OUR AREA...OFFERING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY LIMITED DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT RANGE.
AN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE TROF. AT THE SFC...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN. GUIDANCE
BLEND SHOWS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE TO NO CAPE EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. A REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE
CLOSE BUT SOUTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
PERIOD. EAST COAST TROF FLATTENS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE. THIS ALLOWS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA. THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MODERATES THEN DISSIPATES AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY STALLS...THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE OH VALLEY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD. THE BEST FORCING...AND
RESULTANT CONVECTION...WILL BE WED AND THU...WITH A DRY FCST MON AND
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUE ACROSS THE MTNS. WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MON AND TUE...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS SLOWLY FALL WED AND THU...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG AT KHKY BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING SO EXPECT AT BEST FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE LIMITED BY THAT
POINT. COULD SEE PASSING CIRRUS OFF AND ON AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY N TO NE WITH ONLY BRIEF SWINGS TOWARD E...BUT
REMAINING ON THE N SIDE. COULD SEE SOME OFF-AND-ON LOW-END GUSTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TO GENERALLY 5KT OR BELOW EVERYWHERE.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TDP





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311743
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
143 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST RUNNING PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
DESPITE THE HEAT...A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH DEWPOINTS LOWER IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE
GRIDS THIS MORNING...HAVE UPDATED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON
TRENDS AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHS MIGHT BE JUST A TOUCH LOWER
THAN FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT LOOKING AT THE HRRR AND OTHER CAMS
SEEMS WE WILL BE PRETTY HARD-PRESSED TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FORM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE. POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN PER
TRENDS.

AT 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN USA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA...STALLING NEAR THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN JUST SE OF OUR AREA...OFFERING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY LIMITED DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT RANGE.
AN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE TROF. AT THE SFC...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN. GUIDANCE
BLEND SHOWS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE TO NO CAPE EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. A REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE
CLOSE BUT SOUTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
PERIOD. EAST COAST TROF FLATTENS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE. THIS ALLOWS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA. THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MODERATES THEN DISSIPATES AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY STALLS...THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE OH VALLEY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD. THE BEST FORCING...AND
RESULTANT CONVECTION...WILL BE WED AND THU...WITH A DRY FCST MON AND
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUE ACROSS THE MTNS. WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MON AND TUE...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS SLOWLY FALL WED AND THU...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG AT KHKY BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING SO EXPECT AT BEST FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
ROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE LIMITED BY THAT
POINT. COULD SEE PASSING CIRRUS OFF AND ON AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY N TO NE WITH ONLY BRIEF SWINGS TOWARD E...BUT
REMAINING ON THE N SIDE. COULD SEE SOME OFF-AND-ON LOW-END GUSTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TO GENERALLY 5KT OR BELOW EVERYWHERE.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311444
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST RUNNING PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
DESPITE THE HEAT...A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH DEWPOINTS LOWER IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE
GRIDS THIS MORNING...HAVE UPDATED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON
TRENDS AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHS MIGHT BE JUST A TOUCH LOWER
THAN FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT LOOKING AT THE HRRR AND OTHER CAMS
SEEMS WE WILL BE PRETTY HARD-PRESSED TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FORM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE. POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN PER
TRENDS.

AT 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN USA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA...STALLING NEAR THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN JUST SE OF OUR AREA...OFFERING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY LIMITED DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT RANGE.
AN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE TROF. AT THE SFC...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN. GUIDANCE
BLEND SHOWS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE TO NO CAPE EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. A REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE
CLOSE BUT SOUTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
PERIOD. EAST COAST TROF FLATTENS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE. THIS ALLOWS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA. THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MODERATES THEN DISSIPATES AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY STALLS...THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE OH VALLEY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD. THE BEST FORCING...AND
RESULTANT CONVECTION...WILL BE WED AND THU...WITH A DRY FCST MON AND
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUE ACROSS THE MTNS. WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MON AND TUE...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS SLOWLY FALL WED AND THU...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE N OR NE...WITH LIMITED GUST
POTENTIAL. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY IN DRIER AIR BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT FAVORED AT TAF SITES BY MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE N...WITH ONLY LIMITED GUSTS.
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT/TDP





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311444
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST RUNNING PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
DESPITE THE HEAT...A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH DEWPOINTS LOWER IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE
GRIDS THIS MORNING...HAVE UPDATED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON
TRENDS AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHS MIGHT BE JUST A TOUCH LOWER
THAN FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT LOOKING AT THE HRRR AND OTHER CAMS
SEEMS WE WILL BE PRETTY HARD-PRESSED TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FORM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE. POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN PER
TRENDS.

AT 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN USA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA...STALLING NEAR THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN JUST SE OF OUR AREA...OFFERING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY LIMITED DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT RANGE.
AN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE TROF. AT THE SFC...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN. GUIDANCE
BLEND SHOWS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE TO NO CAPE EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. A REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE
CLOSE BUT SOUTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
PERIOD. EAST COAST TROF FLATTENS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE. THIS ALLOWS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA. THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MODERATES THEN DISSIPATES AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY STALLS...THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE OH VALLEY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD. THE BEST FORCING...AND
RESULTANT CONVECTION...WILL BE WED AND THU...WITH A DRY FCST MON AND
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUE ACROSS THE MTNS. WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MON AND TUE...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS SLOWLY FALL WED AND THU...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE N OR NE...WITH LIMITED GUST
POTENTIAL. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY IN DRIER AIR BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT FAVORED AT TAF SITES BY MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE N...WITH ONLY LIMITED GUSTS.
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT/TDP




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311129
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
729 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FORM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE. POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN PER
TRENDS.

AT 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN USA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA...STALLING NEAR THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN JUST SE OF OUR AREA...OFFERING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY LIMITED DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT RANGE.
AN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE TROF. AT THE SFC...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN. GUIDANCE
BLEND SHOWS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE TO NO CAPE EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. A REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE
CLOSE BUT SOUTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
PERIOD. EAST COAST TROF FLATTENS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE. THIS ALLOWS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA. THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MODERATES THEN DISSIPATES AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY STALLS...THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE OH VALLEY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD. THE BEST FORCING...AND
RESULTANT CONVECTION...WILL BE WED AND THU...WITH A DRY FCST MON AND
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUE ACROSS THE MTNS. WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MON AND TUE...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS SLOWLY FALL WED AND THU...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE N OR NE...WITH LIMITED GUST
POTENTIAL. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY IN DRIER AIR BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT FAVORED AT TAF SITES BY MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE N...WITH ONLY LIMITED GUSTS.
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311129
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
729 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FORM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE. POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN PER
TRENDS.

AT 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN USA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA...STALLING NEAR THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN JUST SE OF OUR AREA...OFFERING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY LIMITED DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT RANGE.
AN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE TROF. AT THE SFC...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN. GUIDANCE
BLEND SHOWS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE TO NO CAPE EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. A REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE
CLOSE BUT SOUTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
PERIOD. EAST COAST TROF FLATTENS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE. THIS ALLOWS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA. THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MODERATES THEN DISSIPATES AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY STALLS...THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE OH VALLEY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD. THE BEST FORCING...AND
RESULTANT CONVECTION...WILL BE WED AND THU...WITH A DRY FCST MON AND
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUE ACROSS THE MTNS. WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MON AND TUE...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS SLOWLY FALL WED AND THU...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE N OR NE...WITH LIMITED GUST
POTENTIAL. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY IN DRIER AIR BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT FAVORED AT TAF SITES BY MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE N...WITH ONLY LIMITED GUSTS.
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311044
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FORM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE. POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN PER
TRENDS.

AT 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN USA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA...STALLING NEAR THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN JUST SE OF OUR AREA...OFFERING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY LIMITED DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT RANGE.
AN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE TROF. AT THE SFC...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN. GUIDANCE
BLEND SHOWS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE TO NO CAPE EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. A REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE
CLOSE BUT SOUTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
PERIOD. EAST COAST TROF FLATTENS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE. THIS ALLOWS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA. THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MODERATES THEN DISSIPATES AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY STALLS...THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE OH VALLEY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD. THE BEST FORCING...AND
RESULTANT CONVECTION...WILL BE WED AND THU...WITH A DRY FCST MON AND
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUE ACROSS THE MTNS. WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MON AND TUE...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS SLOWLY FALL WED AND THU...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE N OR NE...WITH LIMITED GUST
POTENTIAL. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY IN DRIER AIR BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT FAVORED AT TAF SITES BY MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE N...WITH ONLY LIMITED GUSTS.
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311044
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FORM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE. POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN PER
TRENDS.

AT 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN USA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA...STALLING NEAR THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN JUST SE OF OUR AREA...OFFERING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY LIMITED DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT RANGE.
AN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE TROF. AT THE SFC...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN. GUIDANCE
BLEND SHOWS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE TO NO CAPE EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. A REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE
CLOSE BUT SOUTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
PERIOD. EAST COAST TROF FLATTENS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE. THIS ALLOWS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA. THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MODERATES THEN DISSIPATES AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY STALLS...THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE OH VALLEY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD. THE BEST FORCING...AND
RESULTANT CONVECTION...WILL BE WED AND THU...WITH A DRY FCST MON AND
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUE ACROSS THE MTNS. WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MON AND TUE...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS SLOWLY FALL WED AND THU...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE N OR NE...WITH LIMITED GUST
POTENTIAL. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY IN DRIER AIR BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT FAVORED AT TAF SITES BY MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE N...WITH ONLY LIMITED GUSTS.
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311044
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FORM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE. POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN PER
TRENDS.

AT 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN USA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA...STALLING NEAR THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN JUST SE OF OUR AREA...OFFERING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY LIMITED DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT RANGE.
AN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE TROF. AT THE SFC...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN. GUIDANCE
BLEND SHOWS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE TO NO CAPE EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. A REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE
CLOSE BUT SOUTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
PERIOD. EAST COAST TROF FLATTENS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE. THIS ALLOWS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA. THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MODERATES THEN DISSIPATES AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY STALLS...THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE OH VALLEY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD. THE BEST FORCING...AND
RESULTANT CONVECTION...WILL BE WED AND THU...WITH A DRY FCST MON AND
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUE ACROSS THE MTNS. WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MON AND TUE...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS SLOWLY FALL WED AND THU...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE N OR NE...WITH LIMITED GUST
POTENTIAL. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY IN DRIER AIR BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT FAVORED AT TAF SITES BY MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE N...WITH ONLY LIMITED GUSTS.
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 310721
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN USA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA...STALLING NEAR THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN JUST SE OF OUR AREA...OFFERING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY LIMITED DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT RANGE.
AN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE TROF. AT THE SFC...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN. GUIDANCE
BLEND SHOWS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE TO NO CAPE EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. A REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE
CLOSE BUT SOUTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
PERIOD. EAST COAST TROF FLATTENS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE. THIS ALLOWS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA. THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MODERATES THEN DISSIPATES AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY STALLS...THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE OH VALLEY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD. THE BEST FORCING...AND
RESULTANT CONVECTION...WILL BE WED AND THU...WITH A DRY FCST MON AND
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUE ACROSS THE MTNS. WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MON AND TUE...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS SLOWLY FALL WED AND THU...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS...BUT DOES FAVOR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN AREAS TO TEH N AND S AT DAWN. WIDNS WILL
GENERLALY FAVOR HTE N...WITH ONLY LIMITED GUST POTENTIAL. CONVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FIRDAY IN THE DRIER AIR BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR DAYBREAK FOG AT KAND...RESTRCIIONS
ARE NOT FAVORED AT TAF SITES BY MODEL GUIDANCE...AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND A DEPARTIGN OCLD FRONT. WIDNS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE
N...WITH ONLEY LIMITED GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 310721
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN USA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA...STALLING NEAR THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN JUST SE OF OUR AREA...OFFERING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY LIMITED DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT RANGE.
AN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE TROF. AT THE SFC...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN. GUIDANCE
BLEND SHOWS DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE TO NO CAPE EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. A REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE
CLOSE BUT SOUTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FCST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
PERIOD. EAST COAST TROF FLATTENS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE. THIS ALLOWS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA. THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MODERATES THEN DISSIPATES AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY STALLS...THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE OH VALLEY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THRU THE PERIOD. THE BEST FORCING...AND
RESULTANT CONVECTION...WILL BE WED AND THU...WITH A DRY FCST MON AND
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUE ACROSS THE MTNS. WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MON AND TUE...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS SLOWLY FALL WED AND THU...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS...BUT DOES FAVOR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN AREAS TO TEH N AND S AT DAWN. WIDNS WILL
GENERLALY FAVOR HTE N...WITH ONLY LIMITED GUST POTENTIAL. CONVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FIRDAY IN THE DRIER AIR BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR DAYBREAK FOG AT KAND...RESTRCIIONS
ARE NOT FAVORED AT TAF SITES BY MODEL GUIDANCE...AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND A DEPARTIGN OCLD FRONT. WIDNS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE
N...WITH ONLEY LIMITED GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 310515
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH DRIER AIR EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED PER RADAR TRENDS. SKY
COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AHEAD
OF THE INTRUDING THERMAL FRONTAL AXIS WHICH IS NOW PUSHING OUT OF
THE NC HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT REGION.  CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE AXIS IN A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE LATEST SPC MESO
PLOTS INDICATE UPWARDS OF 1.0K-1.5K J/KG SBCAPE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN.  SPEAKING OF...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT ARE ALREADY ON THE DECLINE WITH A FEW SITES IN NORTHWESTERN NC
AT OR NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK.  AS FOR THE FCST...TRIMMED POPS
COMPLETELY FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALL WHILE
INCREASING THEM ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR IN ASSOCIATING WITH
CURRENT CONVECTION AS IT SLIDES SOUTH.  WOULDNT BE SUPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER CELLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE A FORE MENTIONED LINE AS
00Z GSO SOUNDING INDICATES FREEZING LEVELS NEARLY 1-2KFT LESS THAN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HWO TO REMOVE
ANY HAZARD WORDING FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER WILL KEEP SUCH FOR THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS OF NC/SC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME
HEIGHT FALLS ATOP THE CWFA NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...OVERALL FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH...AS
VORTICITY IS BEING SHEARED OUT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS MAKING
INROADS INTO THE PIEDMONT OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME METARS ARE
REPORTING A NOTABLE DROP IN DEWPTS FROM THE LWR 70S TO UPR 60S.
HOWEVER...THE DRIER AIR IS STILL BACK OVER CENTRAL KY/TN. CAPE IS
DECENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT DEEP CONVERGENCE MUST BE
LACKING...BECAUSE CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE SO FAR GIVEN THE
INSTBY. I WILL KEEP A CHC POP THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN...THEN TAPER
POPS FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...THUS
ENDING POPS. FCST SNDGS SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER A DEVELOPING
INVERSION...SO THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING STRATOCU THRU
DAYBREAK...ESP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-85. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A
COUPLE CATEGORIES COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS ACRS THE NRN
ZONES...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL ACRS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA.

FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE APPALACHIANS...DRY HIGH PRES
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON DEEPER MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE CWFA ACRS
THE GULF STATES AND MIDLANDS. SO EXPECT A DRY DAY ON TAP.
THICKNESSES DO NOT FALL MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEWPTS SHUD DROP
INTO THE 50S TO LWR 60S ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTN. SO IT
SHUD FEEL MUCH LESS MUGGY. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS ABOUT
AS QUIET AND UNINTERESTING AS IT GETS FOR MID-SUMMER ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...THE HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS TO THE N AND NW WILL BE SLOW TO
MODIFY THRU THE WEEKEND. A BLEND OF THE MODELS SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 55 TO 60 RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
DROP THE AFTERNOON RH DOWN NEAR 30 PCT. THAT COMBINED WITH SOME
RELATIVELY WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALL BUT ELIMINATE MOST OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY...WHICH MEANS A VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ALTHO THE REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
WILL BE CLOSE...IT SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.
THUS...EXPECT ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE BALSAMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODIFICATION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE INCLUDED MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS MONDAY WITH
SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES IN THE UPPER TROUGH HOVERING OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE MARKED BY CONTINUED AIRMASS DRYING
AND LOW LEVEL Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...WITH BOTH MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS
SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL QPF RESPONSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL
AGREEMENT WANES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TUESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWINGS OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE GFS PASSES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS UP THE BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. QPF RESPONSE IS ONLY SLIGHT IN THE GFS DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...SO KEPT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
APPROACHES AND FORCES ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL NEED TO
BE HASHED OUT AS MODELS HOPEFULLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT LATER
IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH QPF RESPONSE IS AGAIN NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL START JUST
ABOVE CLIMO...AND RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNGIHT.
GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS...BUT DOES FAVOR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN AREAS TO TEH N AND S AT DAWN. WIDNS WILL
GENERLALY FAVOR HTE N...WITH ONLY LIMITED GUST POTENTIAL. CONVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FIRDAY IN THE DRIER AIR BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR DAYBREAK FOG AT KAND...RESTRCIIONS
ARE NOT FAVORED AT TAF SITES BY MODEL GUIDANCE...AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND A DEPARTIGN OCLD FRONT. WIDNS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE
N...WITH ONLEY LIMITED GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 310515
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH DRIER AIR EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED PER RADAR TRENDS. SKY
COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AHEAD
OF THE INTRUDING THERMAL FRONTAL AXIS WHICH IS NOW PUSHING OUT OF
THE NC HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT REGION.  CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE AXIS IN A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE LATEST SPC MESO
PLOTS INDICATE UPWARDS OF 1.0K-1.5K J/KG SBCAPE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN.  SPEAKING OF...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT ARE ALREADY ON THE DECLINE WITH A FEW SITES IN NORTHWESTERN NC
AT OR NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK.  AS FOR THE FCST...TRIMMED POPS
COMPLETELY FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALL WHILE
INCREASING THEM ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR IN ASSOCIATING WITH
CURRENT CONVECTION AS IT SLIDES SOUTH.  WOULDNT BE SUPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER CELLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE A FORE MENTIONED LINE AS
00Z GSO SOUNDING INDICATES FREEZING LEVELS NEARLY 1-2KFT LESS THAN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HWO TO REMOVE
ANY HAZARD WORDING FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER WILL KEEP SUCH FOR THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS OF NC/SC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME
HEIGHT FALLS ATOP THE CWFA NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...OVERALL FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH...AS
VORTICITY IS BEING SHEARED OUT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS MAKING
INROADS INTO THE PIEDMONT OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME METARS ARE
REPORTING A NOTABLE DROP IN DEWPTS FROM THE LWR 70S TO UPR 60S.
HOWEVER...THE DRIER AIR IS STILL BACK OVER CENTRAL KY/TN. CAPE IS
DECENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT DEEP CONVERGENCE MUST BE
LACKING...BECAUSE CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE SO FAR GIVEN THE
INSTBY. I WILL KEEP A CHC POP THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN...THEN TAPER
POPS FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...THUS
ENDING POPS. FCST SNDGS SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER A DEVELOPING
INVERSION...SO THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING STRATOCU THRU
DAYBREAK...ESP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-85. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A
COUPLE CATEGORIES COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS ACRS THE NRN
ZONES...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL ACRS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA.

FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE APPALACHIANS...DRY HIGH PRES
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON DEEPER MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE CWFA ACRS
THE GULF STATES AND MIDLANDS. SO EXPECT A DRY DAY ON TAP.
THICKNESSES DO NOT FALL MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEWPTS SHUD DROP
INTO THE 50S TO LWR 60S ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTN. SO IT
SHUD FEEL MUCH LESS MUGGY. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS ABOUT
AS QUIET AND UNINTERESTING AS IT GETS FOR MID-SUMMER ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...THE HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS TO THE N AND NW WILL BE SLOW TO
MODIFY THRU THE WEEKEND. A BLEND OF THE MODELS SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 55 TO 60 RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
DROP THE AFTERNOON RH DOWN NEAR 30 PCT. THAT COMBINED WITH SOME
RELATIVELY WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALL BUT ELIMINATE MOST OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY...WHICH MEANS A VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ALTHO THE REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
WILL BE CLOSE...IT SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.
THUS...EXPECT ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE BALSAMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODIFICATION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE INCLUDED MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS MONDAY WITH
SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES IN THE UPPER TROUGH HOVERING OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE MARKED BY CONTINUED AIRMASS DRYING
AND LOW LEVEL Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...WITH BOTH MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS
SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL QPF RESPONSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL
AGREEMENT WANES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TUESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWINGS OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE GFS PASSES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS UP THE BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. QPF RESPONSE IS ONLY SLIGHT IN THE GFS DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...SO KEPT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
APPROACHES AND FORCES ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL NEED TO
BE HASHED OUT AS MODELS HOPEFULLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT LATER
IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH QPF RESPONSE IS AGAIN NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL START JUST
ABOVE CLIMO...AND RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNGIHT.
GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS...BUT DOES FAVOR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN AREAS TO TEH N AND S AT DAWN. WIDNS WILL
GENERLALY FAVOR HTE N...WITH ONLY LIMITED GUST POTENTIAL. CONVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FIRDAY IN THE DRIER AIR BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR DAYBREAK FOG AT KAND...RESTRCIIONS
ARE NOT FAVORED AT TAF SITES BY MODEL GUIDANCE...AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND A DEPARTIGN OCLD FRONT. WIDNS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE
N...WITH ONLEY LIMITED GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 310234
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH DRIER AIR EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AHEAD
OF THE INTRUDING THERMAL FRONTAL AXIS WHICH IS NOW PUSHING OUT OF
THE NC HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT REGION.  CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE AXIS IN A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE LATEST SPC MESO
PLOTS INDICATE UPWARDS OF 1.0K-1.5K J/KG SBCAPE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN.  SPEAKING OF...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT ARE ALREADY ON THE DECLINE WITH A FEW SITES IN NORTHWESTERN NC
AT OR NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK.  AS FOR THE FCST...TRIMMED POPS
COMPLETELY FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALL WHILE
INCREASING THEM ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR IN ASSOCIATING WITH
CURRENT CONVECTION AS IT SLIDES SOUTH.  WOULDNT BE SUPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER CELLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE A FORE MENTIONED LINE AS
00Z GSO SOUNDING INDICATES FREEZING LEVELS NEARLY 1-2KFT LESS THAN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HWO TO REMOVE
ANY HAZARD WORDING FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER WILL KEEP SUCH FOR THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS OF NC/SC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME
HEIGHT FALLS ATOP THE CWFA NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...OVERALL FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH...AS
VORTICITY IS BEING SHEARED OUT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS MAKING
INROADS INTO THE PIEDMONT OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME METARS ARE
REPORTING A NOTABLE DROP IN DEWPTS FROM THE LWR 70S TO UPR 60S.
HOWEVER...THE DRIER AIR IS STILL BACK OVER CENTRAL KY/TN. CAPE IS
DECENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT DEEP CONVERGENCE MUST BE
LACKING...BECAUSE CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE SO FAR GIVEN THE
INSTBY. I WILL KEEP A CHC POP THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN...THEN TAPER
POPS FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...THUS
ENDING POPS. FCST SNDGS SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER A DEVELOPING
INVERSION...SO THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING STRATOCU THRU
DAYBREAK...ESP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-85. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A
COUPLE CATEGORIES COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS ACRS THE NRN
ZONES...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL ACRS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA.

FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE APPALACHIANS...DRY HIGH PRES
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON DEEPER MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE CWFA ACRS
THE GULF STATES AND MIDLANDS. SO EXPECT A DRY DAY ON TAP.
THICKNESSES DO NOT FALL MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEWPTS SHUD DROP
INTO THE 50S TO LWR 60S ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTN. SO IT
SHUD FEEL MUCH LESS MUGGY. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS ABOUT
AS QUIET AND UNINTERESTING AS IT GETS FOR MID-SUMMER ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...THE HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS TO THE N AND NW WILL BE SLOW TO
MODIFY THRU THE WEEKEND. A BLEND OF THE MODELS SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 55 TO 60 RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
DROP THE AFTERNOON RH DOWN NEAR 30 PCT. THAT COMBINED WITH SOME
RELATIVELY WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALL BUT ELIMINATE MOST OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY...WHICH MEANS A VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ALTHO THE REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
WILL BE CLOSE...IT SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.
THUS...EXPECT ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE BALSAMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODIFICATION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE INCLUDED MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS MONDAY WITH
SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES IN THE UPPER TROUGH HOVERING OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE MARKED BY CONTINUED AIRMASS DRYING
AND LOW LEVEL Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...WITH BOTH MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS
SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL QPF RESPONSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL
AGREEMENT WANES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TUESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWINGS OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE GFS PASSES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS UP THE BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. QPF RESPONSE IS ONLY SLIGHT IN THE GFS DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...SO KEPT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
APPROACHES AND FORCES ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL NEED TO
BE HASHED OUT AS MODELS HOPEFULLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT LATER
IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH QPF RESPONSE IS AGAIN NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL START JUST
ABOVE CLIMO...AND RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE WEAK COLD FROPA THIS
EVENING.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH VCSH AS LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
GUIDANCE FAVORS DEVELOPMENT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR THROUGH
03Z-04Z.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE POOR VERIFICATION OF THE
GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS...THUS OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE TEMPO.
OTHERWISE...THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH 5-10KT WINDS
SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NNW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK...HOWEVER NOT IN TAF.  SKIES
WILL SCT AFTER ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION TONIGHT LEADING TO FEW LOW
STRATUS UNDER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BY MORNING.  SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
DRY ALOFT ON FRIDAY THUS REMOVAL OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS SEEMED WARRANTED
THEREFORE THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF BEYOND 18Z FEATURES ONLY LOW VFR
FEW CU.

ELSEWHERE...VFR AND THUS SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH A WEAK
COLD FROPA OCCURRING THIS EVENING.  ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL FEATURE
LOW CONFIDENCE VCTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOST STABLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.  OTHERWISE...REMOVED ALL WX MENTION FROM ALL SITES AROUND
THE 03Z-04Z TIMEFRAME LEADING TO PREVAILING 06-10KTS NNW WINDS BY
MORNING ALONG WITH FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EVENTUALLY EXPECTING THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TO DRY LEADING TO ONLY LOW
LEVEL FEW VFR CU BY MIDDAY AT THE SC SITES WITH SKC AT THE NC SITES.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 310234
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH DRIER AIR EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AHEAD
OF THE INTRUDING THERMAL FRONTAL AXIS WHICH IS NOW PUSHING OUT OF
THE NC HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT REGION.  CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE AXIS IN A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE LATEST SPC MESO
PLOTS INDICATE UPWARDS OF 1.0K-1.5K J/KG SBCAPE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER
AIR ADVECTS IN.  SPEAKING OF...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT ARE ALREADY ON THE DECLINE WITH A FEW SITES IN NORTHWESTERN NC
AT OR NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK.  AS FOR THE FCST...TRIMMED POPS
COMPLETELY FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALL WHILE
INCREASING THEM ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR IN ASSOCIATING WITH
CURRENT CONVECTION AS IT SLIDES SOUTH.  WOULDNT BE SUPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER CELLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE A FORE MENTIONED LINE AS
00Z GSO SOUNDING INDICATES FREEZING LEVELS NEARLY 1-2KFT LESS THAN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HWO TO REMOVE
ANY HAZARD WORDING FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER WILL KEEP SUCH FOR THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS OF NC/SC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME
HEIGHT FALLS ATOP THE CWFA NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...OVERALL FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH...AS
VORTICITY IS BEING SHEARED OUT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS MAKING
INROADS INTO THE PIEDMONT OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME METARS ARE
REPORTING A NOTABLE DROP IN DEWPTS FROM THE LWR 70S TO UPR 60S.
HOWEVER...THE DRIER AIR IS STILL BACK OVER CENTRAL KY/TN. CAPE IS
DECENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT DEEP CONVERGENCE MUST BE
LACKING...BECAUSE CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE SO FAR GIVEN THE
INSTBY. I WILL KEEP A CHC POP THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN...THEN TAPER
POPS FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...THUS
ENDING POPS. FCST SNDGS SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER A DEVELOPING
INVERSION...SO THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING STRATOCU THRU
DAYBREAK...ESP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-85. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A
COUPLE CATEGORIES COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS ACRS THE NRN
ZONES...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL ACRS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA.

FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE APPALACHIANS...DRY HIGH PRES
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON DEEPER MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE CWFA ACRS
THE GULF STATES AND MIDLANDS. SO EXPECT A DRY DAY ON TAP.
THICKNESSES DO NOT FALL MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEWPTS SHUD DROP
INTO THE 50S TO LWR 60S ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTN. SO IT
SHUD FEEL MUCH LESS MUGGY. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS ABOUT
AS QUIET AND UNINTERESTING AS IT GETS FOR MID-SUMMER ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...THE HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS TO THE N AND NW WILL BE SLOW TO
MODIFY THRU THE WEEKEND. A BLEND OF THE MODELS SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 55 TO 60 RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
DROP THE AFTERNOON RH DOWN NEAR 30 PCT. THAT COMBINED WITH SOME
RELATIVELY WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALL BUT ELIMINATE MOST OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY...WHICH MEANS A VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ALTHO THE REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
WILL BE CLOSE...IT SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.
THUS...EXPECT ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE BALSAMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODIFICATION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE INCLUDED MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS MONDAY WITH
SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES IN THE UPPER TROUGH HOVERING OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE MARKED BY CONTINUED AIRMASS DRYING
AND LOW LEVEL Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...WITH BOTH MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS
SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL QPF RESPONSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL
AGREEMENT WANES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TUESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWINGS OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE GFS PASSES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS UP THE BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. QPF RESPONSE IS ONLY SLIGHT IN THE GFS DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...SO KEPT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
APPROACHES AND FORCES ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL NEED TO
BE HASHED OUT AS MODELS HOPEFULLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT LATER
IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH QPF RESPONSE IS AGAIN NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL START JUST
ABOVE CLIMO...AND RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE WEAK COLD FROPA THIS
EVENING.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH VCSH AS LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
GUIDANCE FAVORS DEVELOPMENT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR THROUGH
03Z-04Z.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE POOR VERIFICATION OF THE
GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS...THUS OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE TEMPO.
OTHERWISE...THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH 5-10KT WINDS
SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NNW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK...HOWEVER NOT IN TAF.  SKIES
WILL SCT AFTER ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION TONIGHT LEADING TO FEW LOW
STRATUS UNDER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BY MORNING.  SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
DRY ALOFT ON FRIDAY THUS REMOVAL OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS SEEMED WARRANTED
THEREFORE THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF BEYOND 18Z FEATURES ONLY LOW VFR
FEW CU.

ELSEWHERE...VFR AND THUS SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH A WEAK
COLD FROPA OCCURRING THIS EVENING.  ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL FEATURE
LOW CONFIDENCE VCTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOST STABLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.  OTHERWISE...REMOVED ALL WX MENTION FROM ALL SITES AROUND
THE 03Z-04Z TIMEFRAME LEADING TO PREVAILING 06-10KTS NNW WINDS BY
MORNING ALONG WITH FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EVENTUALLY EXPECTING THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TO DRY LEADING TO ONLY LOW
LEVEL FEW VFR CU BY MIDDAY AT THE SC SITES WITH SKC AT THE NC SITES.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 302341
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
741 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH DRIER AIR EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN SLIGHT INCREASES TO MID
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER
LATEST CAM GUID...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID MAKE MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS/DEWS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT SAT/OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME
HEIGHT FALLS ATOP THE CWFA NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...OVERALL FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH...AS
VORTICITY IS BEING SHEARED OUT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS MAKING
INROADS INTO THE PIEDMONT OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME METARS ARE
REPORTING A NOTABLE DROP IN DEWPTS FROM THE LWR 70S TO UPR 60S.
HOWEVER...THE DRIER AIR IS STILL BACK OVER CENTRAL KY/TN. CAPE IS
DECENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT DEEP CONVERGENCE MUST BE
LACKING...BECAUSE CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE SO FAR GIVEN THE
INSTBY. I WILL KEEP A CHC POP THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN...THEN TAPER
POPS FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...THUS
ENDING POPS. FCST SNDGS SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER A DEVELOPING
INVERSION...SO THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING STRATOCU THRU
DAYBREAK...ESP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-85. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A
COUPLE CATEGORIES COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS ACRS THE NRN
ZONES...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL ACRS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA.

FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE APPALACHIANS...DRY HIGH PRES
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON DEEPER MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE CWFA ACRS
THE GULF STATES AND MIDLANDS. SO EXPECT A DRY DAY ON TAP.
THICKNESSES DO NOT FALL MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEWPTS SHUD DROP
INTO THE 50S TO LWR 60S ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTN. SO IT
SHUD FEEL MUCH LESS MUGGY. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS ABOUT
AS QUIET AND UNINTERESTING AS IT GETS FOR MID-SUMMER ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...THE HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS TO THE N AND NW WILL BE SLOW TO
MODIFY THRU THE WEEKEND. A BLEND OF THE MODELS SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 55 TO 60 RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
DROP THE AFTERNOON RH DOWN NEAR 30 PCT. THAT COMBINED WITH SOME
RELATIVELY WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALL BUT ELIMINATE MOST OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY...WHICH MEANS A VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ALTHO THE REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
WILL BE CLOSE...IT SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.
THUS...EXPECT ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE BALSAMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODIFICATION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE INCLUDED MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS MONDAY WITH
SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES IN THE UPPER TROUGH HOVERING OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE MARKED BY CONTINUED AIRMASS DRYING
AND LOW LEVEL Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...WITH BOTH MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS
SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL QPF RESPONSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL
AGREEMENT WANES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TUESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWINGS OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE GFS PASSES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS UP THE BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. QPF RESPONSE IS ONLY SLIGHT IN THE GFS DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...SO KEPT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
APPROACHES AND FORCES ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL NEED TO
BE HASHED OUT AS MODELS HOPEFULLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT LATER
IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH QPF RESPONSE IS AGAIN NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL START JUST
ABOVE CLIMO...AND RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE WEAK COLD FROPA THIS
EVENING.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH VCSH AS LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
GUIDANCE FAVORS DEVELOPMENT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR THROUGH
03Z-04Z.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE POOR VERIFICATION OF THE
GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS...THUS OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE TEMPO.
OTHERWISE...THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH 5-10KT WINDS
SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NNW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK...HOWEVER NOT IN TAF.  SKIES
WILL SCT AFTER ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION TONIGHT LEADING TO FEW LOW
STRATUS UNDER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BY MORNING.  SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
DRY ALOFT ON FRIDAY THUS REMOVAL OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS SEEMED WARRANTED
THEREFORE THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF BEYOND 18Z FEATURES ONLY LOW VFR
FEW CU.

ELSEWHERE...VFR AND THUS SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH A WEAK
COLD FROPA OCCURRING THIS EVENING.  ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL FEATURE
LOW CONFIDENCE VCTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOST STABLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.  OTHERWISE...REMOVED ALL WX MENTION FROM ALL SITES AROUND
THE 03Z-04Z TIMEFRAME LEADING TO PREVAILING 06-10KTS NNW WINDS BY
MORNING ALONG WITH FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EVENTUALLY EXPECTING THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TO DRY LEADING TO ONLY LOW
LEVEL FEW VFR CU BY MIDDAY AT THE SC SITES WITH SKC AT THE NC SITES.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 302341
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
741 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH DRIER AIR EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN SLIGHT INCREASES TO MID
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER
LATEST CAM GUID...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID MAKE MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS/DEWS AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT SAT/OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME
HEIGHT FALLS ATOP THE CWFA NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROF AXIS.
HOWEVER...OVERALL FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH...AS
VORTICITY IS BEING SHEARED OUT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS MAKING
INROADS INTO THE PIEDMONT OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME METARS ARE
REPORTING A NOTABLE DROP IN DEWPTS FROM THE LWR 70S TO UPR 60S.
HOWEVER...THE DRIER AIR IS STILL BACK OVER CENTRAL KY/TN. CAPE IS
DECENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT DEEP CONVERGENCE MUST BE
LACKING...BECAUSE CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE SO FAR GIVEN THE
INSTBY. I WILL KEEP A CHC POP THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN...THEN TAPER
POPS FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...THUS
ENDING POPS. FCST SNDGS SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER A DEVELOPING
INVERSION...SO THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING STRATOCU THRU
DAYBREAK...ESP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-85. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A
COUPLE CATEGORIES COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS ACRS THE NRN
ZONES...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL ACRS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA.

FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE APPALACHIANS...DRY HIGH PRES
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON DEEPER MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE CWFA ACRS
THE GULF STATES AND MIDLANDS. SO EXPECT A DRY DAY ON TAP.
THICKNESSES DO NOT FALL MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEWPTS SHUD DROP
INTO THE 50S TO LWR 60S ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTN. SO IT
SHUD FEEL MUCH LESS MUGGY. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS ABOUT
AS QUIET AND UNINTERESTING AS IT GETS FOR MID-SUMMER ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...THE HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS TO THE N AND NW WILL BE SLOW TO
MODIFY THRU THE WEEKEND. A BLEND OF THE MODELS SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 55 TO 60 RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
DROP THE AFTERNOON RH DOWN NEAR 30 PCT. THAT COMBINED WITH SOME
RELATIVELY WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALL BUT ELIMINATE MOST OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR POSITIVE BUOYANCY...WHICH MEANS A VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ALTHO THE REMNANT COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
WILL BE CLOSE...IT SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.
THUS...EXPECT ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE BALSAMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODIFICATION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP WILL BE INCLUDED MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS MONDAY WITH
SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES IN THE UPPER TROUGH HOVERING OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE MARKED BY CONTINUED AIRMASS DRYING
AND LOW LEVEL Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...WITH BOTH MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS
SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL QPF RESPONSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL
AGREEMENT WANES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TUESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWINGS OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE GFS PASSES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS UP THE BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. QPF RESPONSE IS ONLY SLIGHT IN THE GFS DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...SO KEPT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
APPROACHES AND FORCES ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL NEED TO
BE HASHED OUT AS MODELS HOPEFULLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT LATER
IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH QPF RESPONSE IS AGAIN NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL START JUST
ABOVE CLIMO...AND RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE WEAK COLD FROPA THIS
EVENING.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH VCSH AS LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
GUIDANCE FAVORS DEVELOPMENT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR THROUGH
03Z-04Z.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE POOR VERIFICATION OF THE
GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS...THUS OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE TEMPO.
OTHERWISE...THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH 5-10KT WINDS
SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NNW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTING POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK...HOWEVER NOT IN TAF.  SKIES
WILL SCT AFTER ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION TONIGHT LEADING TO FEW LOW
STRATUS UNDER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BY MORNING.  SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
DRY ALOFT ON FRIDAY THUS REMOVAL OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS SEEMED WARRANTED
THEREFORE THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF BEYOND 18Z FEATURES ONLY LOW VFR
FEW CU.

ELSEWHERE...VFR AND THUS SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH A WEAK
COLD FROPA OCCURRING THIS EVENING.  ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL FEATURE
LOW CONFIDENCE VCTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOST STABLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.  OTHERWISE...REMOVED ALL WX MENTION FROM ALL SITES AROUND
THE 03Z-04Z TIMEFRAME LEADING TO PREVAILING 06-10KTS NNW WINDS BY
MORNING ALONG WITH FEW LOW VFR STRATUS AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EVENTUALLY EXPECTING THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TO DRY LEADING TO ONLY LOW
LEVEL FEW VFR CU BY MIDDAY AT THE SC SITES WITH SKC AT THE NC SITES.

OUTLOOK...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND RESTRICTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




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