Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KGSP 071843
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM OUR AREA LATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST
FORM THE ATLANTIC TO THE GULF STATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN THE BULK OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY PASSING BY TO
OUR NORTH..REDUCING FORCING OVER OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH
OVER THE OH AND POTOMAC RIVER VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK. DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE
COOLING...AND EVEN SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER NORTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 85...WHERE MORE MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES THRU
THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD WITH THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA ANTICYCLONE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SERN CONUS KEEPING ANY SHORT WAVES AT BAY TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH. THAT SAID...THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE DOES
RETROGRADE ON SHORE DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY SETTING UP A
PATTERN CHANGE FOR LATER IN THE FORECAST WITH A BUILDING CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS TROF.

THE SFC PATTERN IS TYPICAL AS WELL WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE MTNS
AND A LEE TROF ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT FRONTS OR
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OFF TO OUR NORTH. THAT SAID...THE LEE TROF
LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP FARTHER EAST THAN TYPICAL...KEEPING ANY
BETTER FORCING TO THE EAST AS WELL. ALL THIS MEANS ISOLATED TO SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...UNLESS THE LEE TROF IS FARTHER WEST. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY IS HINTING AT BETTER CONVECTIVE CHC OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS EAST OF I-26 WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM AN OVERNIGHT MCS
ARE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA HELPING PROVIDE A TRIGGER. WILL HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS DEVELOPS AS THE LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW IS
CREATING A GENERALLY DRIER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CHC OF FOR
SVR STORMS IS LOW...AN ISOLATED SVR STORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS.

WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THICKNESSES RISE THRU THE PERIOD PUSHING
TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND WELL INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW
WITH THE WLY FLOW...KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES UNDER 100. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WITH 60S FOR
THE MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A LARGE H5 RIDGE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY...SLIDING
WEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS WEEKEND...VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE MID LEVEL RIDGING...WEAK SFC
FLOW...AND UNFAVORABLE THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES...I WILL KEEP
POPS LIMITED TO CHC ALONG THE RIDGES WITH SCHC POPS EAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A ACTIVE PERIOD OF MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEYS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH THE MCS TRACKS.
HOWEVER...FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD YIELD GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA. I WILL INDICATE A
MID DAY INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RANGE 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY THAN IN AREAS
TO THE WEST WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. WINDS WILL
FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING A BIT GUSTY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. PREFERRED
GUIDANCE DOE NOT FAVOR DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KCLT...BUT DOE AT
NEIGHBORING SITES TO THE S AND N. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS FAVOR A LOW VFR CLOUD
DECK.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SW...WITH SOME MINOR GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT AT KAVL
GUIDANCE VEERS WINDS NW TONIGHT AND LEAVES THEM THERE. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY IN FOG AT KAVL AROUND DAWN...BUT IS VFR AT
FOOTHILLS SITES...THROUGH SOME SITES NEAR KHKY ARE MVFR. LOW VFR
CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A CIG...THROUGH
IF KAVL CAN GET PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...A CIG RESTRICTION MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT DAWN.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 071843
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM OUR AREA LATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST
FORM THE ATLANTIC TO THE GULF STATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
RIDGING WILL RESULT IN THE BULK OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY PASSING BY TO
OUR NORTH..REDUCING FORCING OVER OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH
OVER THE OH AND POTOMAC RIVER VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK. DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT FOR EVAPORATIVE
COOLING...AND EVEN SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER NORTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 85...WHERE MORE MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES THRU
THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD WITH THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA ANTICYCLONE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SERN CONUS KEEPING ANY SHORT WAVES AT BAY TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH. THAT SAID...THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE DOES
RETROGRADE ON SHORE DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY SETTING UP A
PATTERN CHANGE FOR LATER IN THE FORECAST WITH A BUILDING CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS TROF.

THE SFC PATTERN IS TYPICAL AS WELL WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE MTNS
AND A LEE TROF ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT FRONTS OR
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OFF TO OUR NORTH. THAT SAID...THE LEE TROF
LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP FARTHER EAST THAN TYPICAL...KEEPING ANY
BETTER FORCING TO THE EAST AS WELL. ALL THIS MEANS ISOLATED TO SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...UNLESS THE LEE TROF IS FARTHER WEST. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY IS HINTING AT BETTER CONVECTIVE CHC OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS EAST OF I-26 WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM AN OVERNIGHT MCS
ARE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA HELPING PROVIDE A TRIGGER. WILL HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS DEVELOPS AS THE LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW IS
CREATING A GENERALLY DRIER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CHC OF FOR
SVR STORMS IS LOW...AN ISOLATED SVR STORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS.

WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THICKNESSES RISE THRU THE PERIOD PUSHING
TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND WELL INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW
WITH THE WLY FLOW...KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES UNDER 100. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WITH 60S FOR
THE MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A LARGE H5 RIDGE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY...SLIDING
WEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS WEEKEND...VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE MID LEVEL RIDGING...WEAK SFC
FLOW...AND UNFAVORABLE THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES...I WILL KEEP
POPS LIMITED TO CHC ALONG THE RIDGES WITH SCHC POPS EAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE H5 RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A ACTIVE PERIOD OF MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEYS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH THE MCS TRACKS.
HOWEVER...FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD YIELD GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA. I WILL INDICATE A
MID DAY INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RANGE 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY THAN IN AREAS
TO THE WEST WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. WINDS WILL
FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING A BIT GUSTY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. PREFERRED
GUIDANCE DOE NOT FAVOR DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KCLT...BUT DOE AT
NEIGHBORING SITES TO THE S AND N. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS FAVOR A LOW VFR CLOUD
DECK.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SW...WITH SOME MINOR GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT AT KAVL
GUIDANCE VEERS WINDS NW TONIGHT AND LEAVES THEM THERE. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY IN FOG AT KAVL AROUND DAWN...BUT IS VFR AT
FOOTHILLS SITES...THROUGH SOME SITES NEAR KHKY ARE MVFR. LOW VFR
CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A CIG...THROUGH
IF KAVL CAN GET PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...A CIG RESTRICTION MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT DAWN.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 071722
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1715 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPS WERE REDUCED AGAIN EARLY IN THE FORECAST BASED ON
RECENT RADAR TRENDS. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST
NAM AND ADJMAV.

AS OF 630 AM...SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED NEAR ANDERSON POSSIBLY DUE
TO ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE HARTWELL IN LIGHT SW FLOW. THE
FOG LAYER IS THICK ENOUGH THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 8 OR 9 A.M. TO
FULLY CLEAR UP. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS SEEN AROUND MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE QUICKLY. IN
LIGHT OF LATEST HRRR RUNS AND RESULTS FROM 00Z NCAR WRFDART
ENSEMBLE...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
LATE MRNG OVER THE ESCARPMENT...BUT THE EXISTING COVERAGE WORDING
STILL LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY.  UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD.  ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.  POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.  PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING.  THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES.  THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.  BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO.  POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY THAN IN AREAS
TO THE WEST WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. WINDS WILL
FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING A BIT GUSTY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. PREFERRED
GUIDANCE DOE NOT FAVOR DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KCLT...BUT DOE AT
NEIGHBORING SITES TO THE S AND N. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS FAVOR A LOW VFR CLOUD
DECK.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SW...WITH SOME MINOR GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT AT KAVL
GUIDANCE VEERS WINDS NW TONIGHT AND LEAVES THEM THERE. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY IN FOG AT KAVL AROUND DAWN...BUT IS VFR AT
FOOTHILLS SITES...THROUGH SOME SITES NEAR KHKY ARE MVFR. LOW VFR
CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A CIG...THROUGH
IF KAVL CAN GET PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...A CIG RESTRICTION MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT DAWN.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 071722
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1715 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPS WERE REDUCED AGAIN EARLY IN THE FORECAST BASED ON
RECENT RADAR TRENDS. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST
NAM AND ADJMAV.

AS OF 630 AM...SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED NEAR ANDERSON POSSIBLY DUE
TO ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE HARTWELL IN LIGHT SW FLOW. THE
FOG LAYER IS THICK ENOUGH THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 8 OR 9 A.M. TO
FULLY CLEAR UP. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS SEEN AROUND MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE QUICKLY. IN
LIGHT OF LATEST HRRR RUNS AND RESULTS FROM 00Z NCAR WRFDART
ENSEMBLE...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
LATE MRNG OVER THE ESCARPMENT...BUT THE EXISTING COVERAGE WORDING
STILL LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY.  UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD.  ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.  POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.  PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING.  THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES.  THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.  BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO.  POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY THAN IN AREAS
TO THE WEST WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. WINDS WILL
FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING A BIT GUSTY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. PREFERRED
GUIDANCE DOE NOT FAVOR DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KCLT...BUT DOE AT
NEIGHBORING SITES TO THE S AND N. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS FAVOR A LOW VFR CLOUD
DECK.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SW...WITH SOME MINOR GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT AT KAVL
GUIDANCE VEERS WINDS NW TONIGHT AND LEAVES THEM THERE. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY IN FOG AT KAVL AROUND DAWN...BUT IS VFR AT
FOOTHILLS SITES...THROUGH SOME SITES NEAR KHKY ARE MVFR. LOW VFR
CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A CIG...THROUGH
IF KAVL CAN GET PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...A CIG RESTRICTION MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT DAWN.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 071722
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1715 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPS WERE REDUCED AGAIN EARLY IN THE FORECAST BASED ON
RECENT RADAR TRENDS. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST
NAM AND ADJMAV.

AS OF 630 AM...SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED NEAR ANDERSON POSSIBLY DUE
TO ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE HARTWELL IN LIGHT SW FLOW. THE
FOG LAYER IS THICK ENOUGH THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 8 OR 9 A.M. TO
FULLY CLEAR UP. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS SEEN AROUND MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE QUICKLY. IN
LIGHT OF LATEST HRRR RUNS AND RESULTS FROM 00Z NCAR WRFDART
ENSEMBLE...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
LATE MRNG OVER THE ESCARPMENT...BUT THE EXISTING COVERAGE WORDING
STILL LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY.  UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD.  ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.  POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.  PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING.  THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES.  THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.  BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO.  POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY THAN IN AREAS
TO THE WEST WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. WINDS WILL
FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING A BIT GUSTY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. PREFERRED
GUIDANCE DOE NOT FAVOR DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KCLT...BUT DOE AT
NEIGHBORING SITES TO THE S AND N. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS FAVOR A LOW VFR CLOUD
DECK.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SW...WITH SOME MINOR GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT AT KAVL
GUIDANCE VEERS WINDS NW TONIGHT AND LEAVES THEM THERE. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY IN FOG AT KAVL AROUND DAWN...BUT IS VFR AT
FOOTHILLS SITES...THROUGH SOME SITES NEAR KHKY ARE MVFR. LOW VFR
CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A CIG...THROUGH
IF KAVL CAN GET PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...A CIG RESTRICTION MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT DAWN.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 071722
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1715 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPS WERE REDUCED AGAIN EARLY IN THE FORECAST BASED ON
RECENT RADAR TRENDS. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST
NAM AND ADJMAV.

AS OF 630 AM...SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED NEAR ANDERSON POSSIBLY DUE
TO ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE HARTWELL IN LIGHT SW FLOW. THE
FOG LAYER IS THICK ENOUGH THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 8 OR 9 A.M. TO
FULLY CLEAR UP. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS SEEN AROUND MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE QUICKLY. IN
LIGHT OF LATEST HRRR RUNS AND RESULTS FROM 00Z NCAR WRFDART
ENSEMBLE...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
LATE MRNG OVER THE ESCARPMENT...BUT THE EXISTING COVERAGE WORDING
STILL LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY.  UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD.  ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.  POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.  PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING.  THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES.  THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.  BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO.  POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY THAN IN AREAS
TO THE WEST WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. WINDS WILL
FAVOR THE SW...BECOMING A BIT GUSTY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. PREFERRED
GUIDANCE DOE NOT FAVOR DAYBREAK FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KCLT...BUT DOE AT
NEIGHBORING SITES TO THE S AND N. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS FAVOR A LOW VFR CLOUD
DECK.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SW...WITH SOME MINOR GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT AT KAVL
GUIDANCE VEERS WINDS NW TONIGHT AND LEAVES THEM THERE. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR VSBY IN FOG AT KAVL AROUND DAWN...BUT IS VFR AT
FOOTHILLS SITES...THROUGH SOME SITES NEAR KHKY ARE MVFR. LOW VFR
CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A CIG...THROUGH
IF KAVL CAN GET PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...A CIG RESTRICTION MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT DAWN.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 071355
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
955 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 EDT UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE REDUCED EARLY ON BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. SKY OVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WINDS
WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM DATA.

AS OF 630 AM...SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED NEAR ANDERSON POSSIBLY DUE
TO ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE HARTWELL IN LIGHT SW FLOW. THE
FOG LAYER IS THICK ENOUGH THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 8 OR 9 A.M. TO
FULLY CLEAR UP. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS SEEN AROUND MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE QUICKLY. IN
LIGHT OF LATEST HRRR RUNS AND RESULTS FROM 00Z NCAR WRFDART
ENSEMBLE...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
LATE MRNG OVER THE ESCARPMENT...BUT THE EXISTING COVERAGE WORDING
STILL LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY.  UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD.  ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.  POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.  PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING.  THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES.  THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.  BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO.  POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MRNG FOG WILL DISSOLVE QUICKLY AFTER
12Z AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAND...WHERE THE LAYER IS
THICK ENOUGH THAT A LIFR CIG IS REPORTED. OTHERWISE SOLAR HEATING
SHOULD BE PRETTY EFFECTIVE IN IMPROVING VSBYS. BEYOND THIS MRNG...A
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY SWLY WINDS...BUT KAVL
WILL START OFF NLY AND FLIP AT MIDDAY. A FEW SHRA AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT
STAND LITTLE CHANCE OF SURVIVING THE TRIP EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. KAVL HAS A VCSH MENTION BUT OTHER SITES ARE DRY.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FOG
COVERAGE...THOUGH MTN VALLEYS AND SITES IN THE NRN CATAWBA VALLEY
STILL LOOK TO SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS. A FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 071355
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
955 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 EDT UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE REDUCED EARLY ON BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. SKY OVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WINDS
WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM DATA.

AS OF 630 AM...SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED NEAR ANDERSON POSSIBLY DUE
TO ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE HARTWELL IN LIGHT SW FLOW. THE
FOG LAYER IS THICK ENOUGH THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 8 OR 9 A.M. TO
FULLY CLEAR UP. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS SEEN AROUND MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE QUICKLY. IN
LIGHT OF LATEST HRRR RUNS AND RESULTS FROM 00Z NCAR WRFDART
ENSEMBLE...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
LATE MRNG OVER THE ESCARPMENT...BUT THE EXISTING COVERAGE WORDING
STILL LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY.  UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD.  ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.  POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.  PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING.  THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES.  THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.  BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO.  POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MRNG FOG WILL DISSOLVE QUICKLY AFTER
12Z AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAND...WHERE THE LAYER IS
THICK ENOUGH THAT A LIFR CIG IS REPORTED. OTHERWISE SOLAR HEATING
SHOULD BE PRETTY EFFECTIVE IN IMPROVING VSBYS. BEYOND THIS MRNG...A
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY SWLY WINDS...BUT KAVL
WILL START OFF NLY AND FLIP AT MIDDAY. A FEW SHRA AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT
STAND LITTLE CHANCE OF SURVIVING THE TRIP EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. KAVL HAS A VCSH MENTION BUT OTHER SITES ARE DRY.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FOG
COVERAGE...THOUGH MTN VALLEYS AND SITES IN THE NRN CATAWBA VALLEY
STILL LOOK TO SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS. A FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 071039
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED NEAR ANDERSON POSSIBLY DUE
TO ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE HARTWELL IN LIGHT SW FLOW. THE
FOG LAYER IS THICK ENOUGH THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 8 OR 9 A.M. TO
FULLY CLEAR UP. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS SEEN AROUND MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE QUICKLY. IN
LIGHT OF LATEST HRRR RUNS AND RESULTS FROM 00Z NCAR WRFDART
ENSEMBLE...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
LATE MRNG OVER THE ESCARPMENT...BUT THE EXISTING COVERAGE WORDING
STILL LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY.  UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD.  ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.  POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.  PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING.  THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES.  THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.  BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO.  POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MRNG FOG WILL DISSOLVE QUICKLY AFTER
12Z AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAND...WHERE THE LAYER IS
THICK ENOUGH THAT A LIFR CIG IS REPORTED. OTHERWISE SOLAR HEATING
SHOULD BE PRETTY EFFECTIVE IN IMPROVING VSBYS. BEYOND THIS MRNG...A
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY SWLY WINDS...BUT KAVL
WILL START OFF NLY AND FLIP AT MIDDAY. A FEW SHRA AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT
STAND LITTLE CHANCE OF SURVIVING THE TRIP EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. KAVL HAS A VCSH MENTION BUT OTHER SITES ARE DRY.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FOG
COVERAGE...THOUGH MTN VALLEYS AND SITES IN THE NRN CATAWBA VALLEY
STILL LOOK TO SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS. A FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 071039
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED NEAR ANDERSON POSSIBLY DUE
TO ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE HARTWELL IN LIGHT SW FLOW. THE
FOG LAYER IS THICK ENOUGH THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 8 OR 9 A.M. TO
FULLY CLEAR UP. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS SEEN AROUND MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE QUICKLY. IN
LIGHT OF LATEST HRRR RUNS AND RESULTS FROM 00Z NCAR WRFDART
ENSEMBLE...FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
LATE MRNG OVER THE ESCARPMENT...BUT THE EXISTING COVERAGE WORDING
STILL LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY.  UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD.  ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.  POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.  PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING.  THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES.  THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.  BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO.  POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MRNG FOG WILL DISSOLVE QUICKLY AFTER
12Z AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAND...WHERE THE LAYER IS
THICK ENOUGH THAT A LIFR CIG IS REPORTED. OTHERWISE SOLAR HEATING
SHOULD BE PRETTY EFFECTIVE IN IMPROVING VSBYS. BEYOND THIS MRNG...A
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY SWLY WINDS...BUT KAVL
WILL START OFF NLY AND FLIP AT MIDDAY. A FEW SHRA AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT
STAND LITTLE CHANCE OF SURVIVING THE TRIP EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. KAVL HAS A VCSH MENTION BUT OTHER SITES ARE DRY.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FOG
COVERAGE...THOUGH MTN VALLEYS AND SITES IN THE NRN CATAWBA VALLEY
STILL LOOK TO SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS. A FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 070908
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY.  UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD.  ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.  POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.  PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING.  THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES.  THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.  BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO.  POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFORDED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF HUMID SFC CONDITIONS IS PRODUCING FOG
IN MTN VALLEYS...AND SOME OF THE COMMONLY FOGGY AREAS NORTH OF KCLT.
LOOKS LIKE ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE VSBY...WITH THE FOG REMAINING
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CIGS. SO FAIRLY QUICK IMPROVEMENT AFTER
DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED. BEYOND THIS MRNG...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN
STORE WITH MAINLY SWLY WINDS AND ALL VFR. KAVL WILL START OFF NLY
BUT FLIP AT MIDDAY. A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EXISTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IS MENTIONED AS PROB30 AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 070908
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY.  UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD.  ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.  POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.  PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING.  THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES.  THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.  BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO.  POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFORDED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF HUMID SFC CONDITIONS IS PRODUCING FOG
IN MTN VALLEYS...AND SOME OF THE COMMONLY FOGGY AREAS NORTH OF KCLT.
LOOKS LIKE ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE VSBY...WITH THE FOG REMAINING
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CIGS. SO FAIRLY QUICK IMPROVEMENT AFTER
DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED. BEYOND THIS MRNG...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN
STORE WITH MAINLY SWLY WINDS AND ALL VFR. KAVL WILL START OFF NLY
BUT FLIP AT MIDDAY. A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EXISTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IS MENTIONED AS PROB30 AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 070908
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY.  UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD.  ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.  POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.  PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING.  THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES.  THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.  BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO.  POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFORDED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF HUMID SFC CONDITIONS IS PRODUCING FOG
IN MTN VALLEYS...AND SOME OF THE COMMONLY FOGGY AREAS NORTH OF KCLT.
LOOKS LIKE ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE VSBY...WITH THE FOG REMAINING
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CIGS. SO FAIRLY QUICK IMPROVEMENT AFTER
DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED. BEYOND THIS MRNG...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN
STORE WITH MAINLY SWLY WINDS AND ALL VFR. KAVL WILL START OFF NLY
BUT FLIP AT MIDDAY. A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EXISTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IS MENTIONED AS PROB30 AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 070908
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY.  UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD.  ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.  POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.  PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING.  THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES.  THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.  BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO.  POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFORDED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF HUMID SFC CONDITIONS IS PRODUCING FOG
IN MTN VALLEYS...AND SOME OF THE COMMONLY FOGGY AREAS NORTH OF KCLT.
LOOKS LIKE ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE VSBY...WITH THE FOG REMAINING
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CIGS. SO FAIRLY QUICK IMPROVEMENT AFTER
DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED. BEYOND THIS MRNG...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN
STORE WITH MAINLY SWLY WINDS AND ALL VFR. KAVL WILL START OFF NLY
BUT FLIP AT MIDDAY. A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EXISTS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IS MENTIONED AS PROB30 AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 070704
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY.  UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD.  ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.  POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.  PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING.  THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES.  THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.  BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO.  POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFORDED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF HUMID SFC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FOG IN MTN VALLEYS AND SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED PIEDMONT
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. GUIDANCE LENDS CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAVL AND KAND...WITH IFR IN TEMPO AT KAVL. A SMALL PATCH OF WARMER
TEMPS ON IR SAT IMAGERY SE OF KAND LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE FORMING
STRATUS. THIS BEARS STRIKING RESEMBLANCE TO THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THERE AND EXPANDING NEWD THRU DAWN. FOR
NOW I HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR LOW MVFR AT KGSP/KGMU IN CASE THIS
VERIFIES...AND MAY NEED TO ADD THE MENTION AT KCLT WITH A LATER AMD.
BEYOND THIS MRNG...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY
SWLY WINDS AND ALL VFR. KAVL WILL START OFF NLY BUT FLIP AT MIDDAY.
A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EXISTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IS
MENTIONED AS PROB30 AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 070704
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY.  UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD.  ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.  POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.  PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING.  THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES.  THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.  BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO.  POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFORDED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF HUMID SFC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FOG IN MTN VALLEYS AND SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED PIEDMONT
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. GUIDANCE LENDS CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAVL AND KAND...WITH IFR IN TEMPO AT KAVL. A SMALL PATCH OF WARMER
TEMPS ON IR SAT IMAGERY SE OF KAND LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE FORMING
STRATUS. THIS BEARS STRIKING RESEMBLANCE TO THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THERE AND EXPANDING NEWD THRU DAWN. FOR
NOW I HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR LOW MVFR AT KGSP/KGMU IN CASE THIS
VERIFIES...AND MAY NEED TO ADD THE MENTION AT KCLT WITH A LATER AMD.
BEYOND THIS MRNG...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY
SWLY WINDS AND ALL VFR. KAVL WILL START OFF NLY BUT FLIP AT MIDDAY.
A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EXISTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IS
MENTIONED AS PROB30 AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 070704
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS IT INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL
MAINLY BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH TEMPS PEAKING
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DRIVE POPS. NAM AND EVEN GFS CAPE PROGS WOULD
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...BUT IN THE RECENT DAYS THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EXPECTATIONS. THE HI-RES
SPC AND NSSL WRFS SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AT MIDDAY...BUT STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO
THE PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. POPS
WILL BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY GOOD DOWNBURSTS...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP INVOF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER A BIT OVER
THE GREAT TN VALLEY...AND SOME UPSLOPING INTO THE WNC MTNS MAY ALLOW
SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLY LOW. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK H5 IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH THE
MEAN QUASIZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE THE SOUTHERN APPS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPS...BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD ATOP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWFA...LIKELY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA/KY.  UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AS THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETROGRESSION
WESTWARD.  ALL SAID...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I77 WHERE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.  POINTS FURTHER
WEST WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FEATURED ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.  PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CIN TO PREVENT
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING.  THUS FOR THE MTNS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
TO THE NORTH PREVENTS ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SERIES OF H5 WAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN FURTHER WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM LEADING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OVER INSTABILITY...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS FCST
POPS ARE NON MENTIONABLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES PREVAIL.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 592DM H5 RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SLIDES
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.  AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  GUIDANCE FAVORS
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES TOWARD
BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRESSION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MCS PROPAGATION AS ACTIVITY
FIRES ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL AXIS BENEATH SAID UPPER
IMPULSES.  THEREFORE...POPS ARE FEATURED AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS FAVOR CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.  BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO CONTINUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.  WITH
THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR LESS UPPER WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE POPS ARE ALLOWED TO LOWER TO BELOW
CLIMO.  POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS ON MONDAY AS MODELS PROG
ANOTHER...PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFORDED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF HUMID SFC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FOG IN MTN VALLEYS AND SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED PIEDMONT
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. GUIDANCE LENDS CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAVL AND KAND...WITH IFR IN TEMPO AT KAVL. A SMALL PATCH OF WARMER
TEMPS ON IR SAT IMAGERY SE OF KAND LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE FORMING
STRATUS. THIS BEARS STRIKING RESEMBLANCE TO THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THERE AND EXPANDING NEWD THRU DAWN. FOR
NOW I HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR LOW MVFR AT KGSP/KGMU IN CASE THIS
VERIFIES...AND MAY NEED TO ADD THE MENTION AT KCLT WITH A LATER AMD.
BEYOND THIS MRNG...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY
SWLY WINDS AND ALL VFR. KAVL WILL START OFF NLY BUT FLIP AT MIDDAY.
A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EXISTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IS
MENTIONED AS PROB30 AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 070554
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
145 AM UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME SPOTTY
STRATOCU IS PRESENT OVER THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY THIN
OUT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPTS STILL APPEAR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND
THE MORE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE MTNS. INTERESTINGLY THERE
IS A SMALL POCKET OF LIKELY STRATUS OR FOG OVER ABBEVILLE CO THAT
MATCHES WHAT THE HRRR SUGGESTS. THE HRRR SPREADS THESE CLOUDS NEWD
THRU DAWN...AND ALSO DEVELOPS SOME VERY LOW VSBYS IN THE SAME AREA.
I WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND OBS...THOUGH THE LOW VSBYS DO
NOT SEEM AS LIKELY AS THE STRATUS.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFORDED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF HUMID SFC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FOG IN MTN VALLEYS AND SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED PIEDMONT
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. GUIDANCE LENDS CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAVL AND KAND...WITH IFR IN TEMPO AT KAVL. A SMALL PATCH OF WARMER
TEMPS ON IR SAT IMAGERY SE OF KAND LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE FORMING
STRATUS. THIS BEARS STRIKING RESEMBLANCE TO THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THERE AND EXPANDING NEWD THRU DAWN. FOR
NOW I HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR LOW MVFR AT KGSP/KGMU IN CASE THIS
VERIFIES...AND MAY NEED TO ADD THE MENTION AT KCLT WITH A LATER AMD.
BEYOND THIS MRNG...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY
SWLY WINDS AND ALL VFR. KAVL WILL START OFF NLY BUT FLIP AT MIDDAY.
A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EXISTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IS
MENTIONED AS PROB30 AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 070554
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
145 AM UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME SPOTTY
STRATOCU IS PRESENT OVER THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY THIN
OUT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPTS STILL APPEAR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND
THE MORE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE MTNS. INTERESTINGLY THERE
IS A SMALL POCKET OF LIKELY STRATUS OR FOG OVER ABBEVILLE CO THAT
MATCHES WHAT THE HRRR SUGGESTS. THE HRRR SPREADS THESE CLOUDS NEWD
THRU DAWN...AND ALSO DEVELOPS SOME VERY LOW VSBYS IN THE SAME AREA.
I WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND OBS...THOUGH THE LOW VSBYS DO
NOT SEEM AS LIKELY AS THE STRATUS.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFORDED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF HUMID SFC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FOG IN MTN VALLEYS AND SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED PIEDMONT
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. GUIDANCE LENDS CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAVL AND KAND...WITH IFR IN TEMPO AT KAVL. A SMALL PATCH OF WARMER
TEMPS ON IR SAT IMAGERY SE OF KAND LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE FORMING
STRATUS. THIS BEARS STRIKING RESEMBLANCE TO THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THERE AND EXPANDING NEWD THRU DAWN. FOR
NOW I HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR LOW MVFR AT KGSP/KGMU IN CASE THIS
VERIFIES...AND MAY NEED TO ADD THE MENTION AT KCLT WITH A LATER AMD.
BEYOND THIS MRNG...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY
SWLY WINDS AND ALL VFR. KAVL WILL START OFF NLY BUT FLIP AT MIDDAY.
A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EXISTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IS
MENTIONED AS PROB30 AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 070554
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
145 AM UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME SPOTTY
STRATOCU IS PRESENT OVER THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY THIN
OUT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPTS STILL APPEAR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND
THE MORE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE MTNS. INTERESTINGLY THERE
IS A SMALL POCKET OF LIKELY STRATUS OR FOG OVER ABBEVILLE CO THAT
MATCHES WHAT THE HRRR SUGGESTS. THE HRRR SPREADS THESE CLOUDS NEWD
THRU DAWN...AND ALSO DEVELOPS SOME VERY LOW VSBYS IN THE SAME AREA.
I WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND OBS...THOUGH THE LOW VSBYS DO
NOT SEEM AS LIKELY AS THE STRATUS.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFORDED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF HUMID SFC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FOG IN MTN VALLEYS AND SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED PIEDMONT
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. GUIDANCE LENDS CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAVL AND KAND...WITH IFR IN TEMPO AT KAVL. A SMALL PATCH OF WARMER
TEMPS ON IR SAT IMAGERY SE OF KAND LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE FORMING
STRATUS. THIS BEARS STRIKING RESEMBLANCE TO THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THERE AND EXPANDING NEWD THRU DAWN. FOR
NOW I HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR LOW MVFR AT KGSP/KGMU IN CASE THIS
VERIFIES...AND MAY NEED TO ADD THE MENTION AT KCLT WITH A LATER AMD.
BEYOND THIS MRNG...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY
SWLY WINDS AND ALL VFR. KAVL WILL START OFF NLY BUT FLIP AT MIDDAY.
A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EXISTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IS
MENTIONED AS PROB30 AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 070554
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
145 AM UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME SPOTTY
STRATOCU IS PRESENT OVER THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY THIN
OUT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPTS STILL APPEAR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND
THE MORE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE MTNS. INTERESTINGLY THERE
IS A SMALL POCKET OF LIKELY STRATUS OR FOG OVER ABBEVILLE CO THAT
MATCHES WHAT THE HRRR SUGGESTS. THE HRRR SPREADS THESE CLOUDS NEWD
THRU DAWN...AND ALSO DEVELOPS SOME VERY LOW VSBYS IN THE SAME AREA.
I WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND OBS...THOUGH THE LOW VSBYS DO
NOT SEEM AS LIKELY AS THE STRATUS.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFORDED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF HUMID SFC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FOG IN MTN VALLEYS AND SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED PIEDMONT
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. GUIDANCE LENDS CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL MVFR AT
KAVL AND KAND...WITH IFR IN TEMPO AT KAVL. A SMALL PATCH OF WARMER
TEMPS ON IR SAT IMAGERY SE OF KAND LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE FORMING
STRATUS. THIS BEARS STRIKING RESEMBLANCE TO THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THERE AND EXPANDING NEWD THRU DAWN. FOR
NOW I HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR LOW MVFR AT KGSP/KGMU IN CASE THIS
VERIFIES...AND MAY NEED TO ADD THE MENTION AT KCLT WITH A LATER AMD.
BEYOND THIS MRNG...A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MAINLY
SWLY WINDS AND ALL VFR. KAVL WILL START OFF NLY BUT FLIP AT MIDDAY.
A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA EXISTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IS
MENTIONED AS PROB30 AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THRU THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 062355
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM...SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ISOLATED CLOSE TO THE
BLUE RIDGE NEAR THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. THINK THE DOWNWARD
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING...
WHICH THE FCST GENERALLY HAS INDICATED WELL. TEMP TRENDS WERE MUCH
IMPROVED AND SHOULD BE OKAY THROUGH MID/LATE EVE.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NE ALONG WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY NOTED IN
THE IR IMAGERY. THIS WEAK FORCING SHOULD MOVE NE OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HENCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. ONE
INTERESTING FEATURE OF NOTE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEEN ON THE TCLT
IMAGERY MOVING DOWN FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE NW PIEDMONT.
THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DECELERATING OVER NRN MECKLENBURG COUNTY
WELL N OF THE AIRFIELD SO THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT IT WILL EVER MAKE
IT AS FAR S AS KCLT...AS THERE IS NO REMNANT CONVECTION LEFT TO
REINFORCE ITS SWD MOVEMENT. EVEN IF IT MAKES IT TO KCLT...THE WIND
SPEED SHOULD BE ONLY ON THE ORDER 5-8 KT. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INDICATE
A WIND SHIFT BUT WILL MONITOR. IF IT DOES HAPPEN...IT WILL BE ARND
01Z AND SHOULD WASH OUT BY 03Z. FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...
EXPECT A LIGHT S WIND...AND SOME REMNANT HIGH CLOUDS. ON
TUESDAY...WIND SHOULD COME UP FROM THE S/SW AROUND THE TIME WE GET A
FEW CU DEVELOPING LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE TOO REMOTE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY
VCSH OR PROB30 IN THE TAF.

ELSEWHERE...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM KAVL HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP...BUT HEATING WILL BE LOST IN SHORT ORDER WHICH SHOULD PUT
THE BRAKES ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A VCTS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME HIGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT S WINDS ARND THE REGION. COULD BE
SOME MTN VALLEY FOG AT KAVL WITH THE MID LEVEL DRYING MOVING IN...SO
VSBY WAS TAKEN DOWN TO MVFR THEN IFR BY DAYBREAK AT KAVL. THE OTHER
PLACE WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOW VIS WAS KAND...WHICH IS HANDLED
WITH A BRIEF MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE VFR AFTER
13Z. SIMILAR TO KCLT...WIND SHOULD COME UP FROM THE S/SW WITH A FEW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING MIDDAY. ONLY THE NC MTNS APPEAR
TO HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF PRECIP...SO ONLY KAVL GETS A PROB30 FOR
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA THRU LATE WEEK...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY
BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG/PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 062355
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM...SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ISOLATED CLOSE TO THE
BLUE RIDGE NEAR THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. THINK THE DOWNWARD
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING...
WHICH THE FCST GENERALLY HAS INDICATED WELL. TEMP TRENDS WERE MUCH
IMPROVED AND SHOULD BE OKAY THROUGH MID/LATE EVE.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NE ALONG WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY NOTED IN
THE IR IMAGERY. THIS WEAK FORCING SHOULD MOVE NE OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HENCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. ONE
INTERESTING FEATURE OF NOTE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEEN ON THE TCLT
IMAGERY MOVING DOWN FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE NW PIEDMONT.
THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DECELERATING OVER NRN MECKLENBURG COUNTY
WELL N OF THE AIRFIELD SO THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT IT WILL EVER MAKE
IT AS FAR S AS KCLT...AS THERE IS NO REMNANT CONVECTION LEFT TO
REINFORCE ITS SWD MOVEMENT. EVEN IF IT MAKES IT TO KCLT...THE WIND
SPEED SHOULD BE ONLY ON THE ORDER 5-8 KT. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INDICATE
A WIND SHIFT BUT WILL MONITOR. IF IT DOES HAPPEN...IT WILL BE ARND
01Z AND SHOULD WASH OUT BY 03Z. FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...
EXPECT A LIGHT S WIND...AND SOME REMNANT HIGH CLOUDS. ON
TUESDAY...WIND SHOULD COME UP FROM THE S/SW AROUND THE TIME WE GET A
FEW CU DEVELOPING LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE TOO REMOTE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY
VCSH OR PROB30 IN THE TAF.

ELSEWHERE...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM KAVL HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP...BUT HEATING WILL BE LOST IN SHORT ORDER WHICH SHOULD PUT
THE BRAKES ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A VCTS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME HIGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT S WINDS ARND THE REGION. COULD BE
SOME MTN VALLEY FOG AT KAVL WITH THE MID LEVEL DRYING MOVING IN...SO
VSBY WAS TAKEN DOWN TO MVFR THEN IFR BY DAYBREAK AT KAVL. THE OTHER
PLACE WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOW VIS WAS KAND...WHICH IS HANDLED
WITH A BRIEF MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE VFR AFTER
13Z. SIMILAR TO KCLT...WIND SHOULD COME UP FROM THE S/SW WITH A FEW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING MIDDAY. ONLY THE NC MTNS APPEAR
TO HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF PRECIP...SO ONLY KAVL GETS A PROB30 FOR
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA THRU LATE WEEK...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY
BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG/PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 062355
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM...SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ISOLATED CLOSE TO THE
BLUE RIDGE NEAR THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. THINK THE DOWNWARD
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING...
WHICH THE FCST GENERALLY HAS INDICATED WELL. TEMP TRENDS WERE MUCH
IMPROVED AND SHOULD BE OKAY THROUGH MID/LATE EVE.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NE ALONG WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY NOTED IN
THE IR IMAGERY. THIS WEAK FORCING SHOULD MOVE NE OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HENCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. ONE
INTERESTING FEATURE OF NOTE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEEN ON THE TCLT
IMAGERY MOVING DOWN FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE NW PIEDMONT.
THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DECELERATING OVER NRN MECKLENBURG COUNTY
WELL N OF THE AIRFIELD SO THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT IT WILL EVER MAKE
IT AS FAR S AS KCLT...AS THERE IS NO REMNANT CONVECTION LEFT TO
REINFORCE ITS SWD MOVEMENT. EVEN IF IT MAKES IT TO KCLT...THE WIND
SPEED SHOULD BE ONLY ON THE ORDER 5-8 KT. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INDICATE
A WIND SHIFT BUT WILL MONITOR. IF IT DOES HAPPEN...IT WILL BE ARND
01Z AND SHOULD WASH OUT BY 03Z. FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...
EXPECT A LIGHT S WIND...AND SOME REMNANT HIGH CLOUDS. ON
TUESDAY...WIND SHOULD COME UP FROM THE S/SW AROUND THE TIME WE GET A
FEW CU DEVELOPING LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE TOO REMOTE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY
VCSH OR PROB30 IN THE TAF.

ELSEWHERE...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM KAVL HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP...BUT HEATING WILL BE LOST IN SHORT ORDER WHICH SHOULD PUT
THE BRAKES ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A VCTS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME HIGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT S WINDS ARND THE REGION. COULD BE
SOME MTN VALLEY FOG AT KAVL WITH THE MID LEVEL DRYING MOVING IN...SO
VSBY WAS TAKEN DOWN TO MVFR THEN IFR BY DAYBREAK AT KAVL. THE OTHER
PLACE WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOW VIS WAS KAND...WHICH IS HANDLED
WITH A BRIEF MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE VFR AFTER
13Z. SIMILAR TO KCLT...WIND SHOULD COME UP FROM THE S/SW WITH A FEW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING MIDDAY. ONLY THE NC MTNS APPEAR
TO HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF PRECIP...SO ONLY KAVL GETS A PROB30 FOR
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA THRU LATE WEEK...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT PLACES THAT HAVE SHOWER ACTIVITY THE DAY
BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG/PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 062058
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5 PM...TEMPS WERE RUNNING ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER THAN THE
TREND IN THE FCST...SO THAT WILL BE IMPROVED. OTHERWISE...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD FORMED ACROSS THE REGION AND
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 230 PM MONDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE BY MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE
TROUGH. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT SHRA/TSRA NORTHWARD BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT. SO WILL ALSO
HAVE SOMOE SCT POPS THERE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROND 2000J AND SOME DRY AIR NOTED
IN MID LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING.

IN REGARD TO THE PICTURE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NE ALONG WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY NOTED IN
THE IR IMAGERY. THIS WEAK FORCING SHOULD MOVE NE OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HENCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMP
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.

ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT KAND/KGSP
AND KGMU FROM ABOUT 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT KAVL AND KHKY SO
WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR SOME
FOG AT AVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S TO LOWER
TO AROUND 2 MILES IN FOG JUST BEFOR SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG/PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 062058
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5 PM...TEMPS WERE RUNNING ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER THAN THE
TREND IN THE FCST...SO THAT WILL BE IMPROVED. OTHERWISE...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD FORMED ACROSS THE REGION AND
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 230 PM MONDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE BY MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE
TROUGH. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT SHRA/TSRA NORTHWARD BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT. SO WILL ALSO
HAVE SOMOE SCT POPS THERE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROND 2000J AND SOME DRY AIR NOTED
IN MID LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING.

IN REGARD TO THE PICTURE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NE ALONG WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY NOTED IN
THE IR IMAGERY. THIS WEAK FORCING SHOULD MOVE NE OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HENCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMP
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.

ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT KAND/KGSP
AND KGMU FROM ABOUT 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT KAVL AND KHKY SO
WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR SOME
FOG AT AVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S TO LOWER
TO AROUND 2 MILES IN FOG JUST BEFOR SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG/PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 062058
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5 PM...TEMPS WERE RUNNING ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER THAN THE
TREND IN THE FCST...SO THAT WILL BE IMPROVED. OTHERWISE...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD FORMED ACROSS THE REGION AND
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 230 PM MONDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE BY MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE
TROUGH. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT SHRA/TSRA NORTHWARD BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT. SO WILL ALSO
HAVE SOMOE SCT POPS THERE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROND 2000J AND SOME DRY AIR NOTED
IN MID LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING.

IN REGARD TO THE PICTURE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NE ALONG WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY NOTED IN
THE IR IMAGERY. THIS WEAK FORCING SHOULD MOVE NE OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HENCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMP
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.

ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT KAND/KGSP
AND KGMU FROM ABOUT 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT KAVL AND KHKY SO
WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR SOME
FOG AT AVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S TO LOWER
TO AROUND 2 MILES IN FOG JUST BEFOR SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG/PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 062058
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5 PM...TEMPS WERE RUNNING ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER THAN THE
TREND IN THE FCST...SO THAT WILL BE IMPROVED. OTHERWISE...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD FORMED ACROSS THE REGION AND
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 230 PM MONDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE BY MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE
TROUGH. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT SHRA/TSRA NORTHWARD BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT. SO WILL ALSO
HAVE SOMOE SCT POPS THERE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROND 2000J AND SOME DRY AIR NOTED
IN MID LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING.

IN REGARD TO THE PICTURE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NE ALONG WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY NOTED IN
THE IR IMAGERY. THIS WEAK FORCING SHOULD MOVE NE OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HENCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMP
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.

ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT KAND/KGSP
AND KGMU FROM ABOUT 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT KAVL AND KHKY SO
WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR SOME
FOG AT AVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S TO LOWER
TO AROUND 2 MILES IN FOG JUST BEFOR SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG/PM
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061840
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM MONDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE BY MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE
TROUGH. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT SHRA/TSRA NORTHWARD BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT. SO WILL ALSO
HAVE SOMOE SCT POPS THERE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROND 2000J AND SOME DRY AIR NOTED
IN MID LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING.

IN REGARD TO THE PICTURE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NE ALONG WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY NOTED IN
THE IR IMAGERY. THIS WEAK FORCING SHOULD MOVE NE OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HENCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMP
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.

ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT KAND/KGSP
AND KGMU FROM ABOUT 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT KAVL AND KHKY SO
WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR SOME
FOG AT AVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S TO LOWER
TO AROUND 2 MILES IN FOG JUST BEFOR SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061840
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM MONDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE BY MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE
TROUGH. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT SHRA/TSRA NORTHWARD BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT. SO WILL ALSO
HAVE SOMOE SCT POPS THERE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROND 2000J AND SOME DRY AIR NOTED
IN MID LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING.

IN REGARD TO THE PICTURE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NE ALONG WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY NOTED IN
THE IR IMAGERY. THIS WEAK FORCING SHOULD MOVE NE OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HENCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMP
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.

ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT KAND/KGSP
AND KGMU FROM ABOUT 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT KAVL AND KHKY SO
WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR SOME
FOG AT AVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S TO LOWER
TO AROUND 2 MILES IN FOG JUST BEFOR SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061840
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM MONDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE BY MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE
TROUGH. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT SHRA/TSRA NORTHWARD BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT. SO WILL ALSO
HAVE SOMOE SCT POPS THERE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROND 2000J AND SOME DRY AIR NOTED
IN MID LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING.

IN REGARD TO THE PICTURE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NE ALONG WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY NOTED IN
THE IR IMAGERY. THIS WEAK FORCING SHOULD MOVE NE OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HENCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMP
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.

ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT KAND/KGSP
AND KGMU FROM ABOUT 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT KAVL AND KHKY SO
WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR SOME
FOG AT AVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S TO LOWER
TO AROUND 2 MILES IN FOG JUST BEFOR SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 061840
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM MONDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE BY MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE
TROUGH. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT SHRA/TSRA NORTHWARD BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT. SO WILL ALSO
HAVE SOMOE SCT POPS THERE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROND 2000J AND SOME DRY AIR NOTED
IN MID LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING.

IN REGARD TO THE PICTURE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NE ALONG WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY NOTED IN
THE IR IMAGERY. THIS WEAK FORCING SHOULD MOVE NE OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS EARLY TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HENCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TYPICAL JULY DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TRIGGER SCT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN
STORMS MAY DRIFT IN LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMP
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.

ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT KAND/KGSP
AND KGMU FROM ABOUT 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT KAVL AND KHKY SO
WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR SOME
FOG AT AVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S TO LOWER
TO AROUND 2 MILES IN FOG JUST BEFOR SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...LG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 061758
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE REALIGNED POPS TO FAVOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHER UPSTATE/NE GA THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HRRR. STILL LOOKS LIKE EASTERN SECTIONS WILL SEE SOME WIDELY SCT
TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN DEFERENCE TO CAPE MINIMA ACROSS THAT AREA.

AT 1225 PM...GOING FORECAST ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK WITH NO ECHOES ON
RADAR AT THE MOMENT. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH POP FORECAST ALTHOUGH
THE BLUE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN A CAPE MINIMA...THOUGH EDGING UPWARD
TO AROUND 1000J. 16Z HRRR DEVELOPS RANDOM WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM AS CAPES CREEPING
UP TO AROUND 2000J OVER THE PIEDMONT ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY
AIR SHOWING UP IN BUFKIT PROFILES. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
TO THE EAST WHERE BEST INSOLATION RESIDES.

AS OF 10 AM...RADAR SHOWS SOME DISSIPATING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO NE GA. SATELLITE PICS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDINESS FROM FAR WESTERN NC INTO GA APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX. THE 12Z NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY E-NE. THE NAM
IS THE MOST BULLISH IN TRIGGERING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEVELOPING MORE SCT TSRA
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST CAMS ARE MUCH MORE
MUTED. USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST CONSSHORT AND NAM ND5 POPS. THIS
RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ESCAPRMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO
OVER PARTS OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALSO TRENDED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND SKY TO LATEST CONSHORT DATA.

AS OF 645 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS NEWD. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
HOWEVER ILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACRS THE NRN MTN/FOOTHILL ZONES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE NO MORE THAN
SPRINKLES IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE SHOULD MIX OUT BY 9 A.M. OR SO.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS
EXCEPT PERHAPS TO ALLOW THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWFA AT
DAYBREAK TO CONTINUE SPREADING EAST THRU THE MRNG. MAJOR MODELS
INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF RUNS MAINLY KICK
OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMPO
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.

ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT
KAND/KGSP/KGMU FROM 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT AVL AND HKY
SO WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR
SOME FOG AT KAVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S
TO LOWER TO AROUND 2 MILES AT KAVL IN FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...LG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061758
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE REALIGNED POPS TO FAVOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHER UPSTATE/NE GA THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HRRR. STILL LOOKS LIKE EASTERN SECTIONS WILL SEE SOME WIDELY SCT
TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN DEFERENCE TO CAPE MINIMA ACROSS THAT AREA.

AT 1225 PM...GOING FORECAST ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK WITH NO ECHOES ON
RADAR AT THE MOMENT. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH POP FORECAST ALTHOUGH
THE BLUE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN A CAPE MINIMA...THOUGH EDGING UPWARD
TO AROUND 1000J. 16Z HRRR DEVELOPS RANDOM WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM AS CAPES CREEPING
UP TO AROUND 2000J OVER THE PIEDMONT ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY
AIR SHOWING UP IN BUFKIT PROFILES. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
TO THE EAST WHERE BEST INSOLATION RESIDES.

AS OF 10 AM...RADAR SHOWS SOME DISSIPATING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO NE GA. SATELLITE PICS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDINESS FROM FAR WESTERN NC INTO GA APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX. THE 12Z NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY E-NE. THE NAM
IS THE MOST BULLISH IN TRIGGERING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEVELOPING MORE SCT TSRA
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST CAMS ARE MUCH MORE
MUTED. USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST CONSSHORT AND NAM ND5 POPS. THIS
RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ESCAPRMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO
OVER PARTS OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALSO TRENDED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND SKY TO LATEST CONSHORT DATA.

AS OF 645 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS NEWD. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
HOWEVER ILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACRS THE NRN MTN/FOOTHILL ZONES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE NO MORE THAN
SPRINKLES IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE SHOULD MIX OUT BY 9 A.M. OR SO.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS
EXCEPT PERHAPS TO ALLOW THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWFA AT
DAYBREAK TO CONTINUE SPREADING EAST THRU THE MRNG. MAJOR MODELS
INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF RUNS MAINLY KICK
OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMPO
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.

ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT
KAND/KGSP/KGMU FROM 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT AVL AND HKY
SO WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR
SOME FOG AT KAVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S
TO LOWER TO AROUND 2 MILES AT KAVL IN FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...LG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 061758
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE REALIGNED POPS TO FAVOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHER UPSTATE/NE GA THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HRRR. STILL LOOKS LIKE EASTERN SECTIONS WILL SEE SOME WIDELY SCT
TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN DEFERENCE TO CAPE MINIMA ACROSS THAT AREA.

AT 1225 PM...GOING FORECAST ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK WITH NO ECHOES ON
RADAR AT THE MOMENT. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH POP FORECAST ALTHOUGH
THE BLUE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN A CAPE MINIMA...THOUGH EDGING UPWARD
TO AROUND 1000J. 16Z HRRR DEVELOPS RANDOM WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM AS CAPES CREEPING
UP TO AROUND 2000J OVER THE PIEDMONT ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY
AIR SHOWING UP IN BUFKIT PROFILES. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
TO THE EAST WHERE BEST INSOLATION RESIDES.

AS OF 10 AM...RADAR SHOWS SOME DISSIPATING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO NE GA. SATELLITE PICS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDINESS FROM FAR WESTERN NC INTO GA APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX. THE 12Z NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY E-NE. THE NAM
IS THE MOST BULLISH IN TRIGGERING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEVELOPING MORE SCT TSRA
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST CAMS ARE MUCH MORE
MUTED. USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST CONSSHORT AND NAM ND5 POPS. THIS
RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ESCAPRMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO
OVER PARTS OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALSO TRENDED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND SKY TO LATEST CONSHORT DATA.

AS OF 645 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS NEWD. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
HOWEVER ILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACRS THE NRN MTN/FOOTHILL ZONES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE NO MORE THAN
SPRINKLES IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE SHOULD MIX OUT BY 9 A.M. OR SO.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS
EXCEPT PERHAPS TO ALLOW THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWFA AT
DAYBREAK TO CONTINUE SPREADING EAST THRU THE MRNG. MAJOR MODELS
INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF RUNS MAINLY KICK
OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMPO
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.

ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT
KAND/KGSP/KGMU FROM 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT AVL AND HKY
SO WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR
SOME FOG AT KAVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S
TO LOWER TO AROUND 2 MILES AT KAVL IN FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...LG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 061758
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE REALIGNED POPS TO FAVOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHER UPSTATE/NE GA THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE BEST INSTABILITY RESIDES. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HRRR. STILL LOOKS LIKE EASTERN SECTIONS WILL SEE SOME WIDELY SCT
TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN DEFERENCE TO CAPE MINIMA ACROSS THAT AREA.

AT 1225 PM...GOING FORECAST ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK WITH NO ECHOES ON
RADAR AT THE MOMENT. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH POP FORECAST ALTHOUGH
THE BLUE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN A CAPE MINIMA...THOUGH EDGING UPWARD
TO AROUND 1000J. 16Z HRRR DEVELOPS RANDOM WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM AS CAPES CREEPING
UP TO AROUND 2000J OVER THE PIEDMONT ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY
AIR SHOWING UP IN BUFKIT PROFILES. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
TO THE EAST WHERE BEST INSOLATION RESIDES.

AS OF 10 AM...RADAR SHOWS SOME DISSIPATING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO NE GA. SATELLITE PICS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDINESS FROM FAR WESTERN NC INTO GA APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX. THE 12Z NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY E-NE. THE NAM
IS THE MOST BULLISH IN TRIGGERING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEVELOPING MORE SCT TSRA
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST CAMS ARE MUCH MORE
MUTED. USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST CONSSHORT AND NAM ND5 POPS. THIS
RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ESCAPRMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO
OVER PARTS OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALSO TRENDED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND SKY TO LATEST CONSHORT DATA.

AS OF 645 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS NEWD. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
HOWEVER ILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACRS THE NRN MTN/FOOTHILL ZONES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE NO MORE THAN
SPRINKLES IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE SHOULD MIX OUT BY 9 A.M. OR SO.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS
EXCEPT PERHAPS TO ALLOW THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWFA AT
DAYBREAK TO CONTINUE SPREADING EAST THRU THE MRNG. MAJOR MODELS
INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF RUNS MAINLY KICK
OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
CONTINUES A THEME FOR THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT NOT YET
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN TAKES ON A W-SWLY LOOK
AT THAT TIME...WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...
ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.

CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE A
FEW CELLS MAY TRY TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...
AND HEIGHTS HAVE NOT REACHED THEIR APEX YET...PLUS TAIL OF ENERGY
PACKETS (DPVA) MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...FOR A CHANCE POP
FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WE JUST NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR REGION...IN A WAFFLING
FRONTAL PATTERN...TRYING TO TURN SEWD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN FA. THE
NAM SUBTLY IMPLIES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HEADING OFF TO OUR EAST...
THEREFORE A NOTE OF CAUTION.

ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN FULL FORCE THURSDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS
ON THE VERY LOW SIDE...BASICALLY TRYING TO EMPHASIS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WE WERE A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE LEE SIDE
TROFFING PROVIDING A WEAK FOCUS AROUND THE REGION...THUS POPS JUST
INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE MODELS WHICH BRING
TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS PART OF THE CYCLE...AS RIDGING AND HEAT
BEGIN ANOTHER SURGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALMOST TO HUDSON
BAY ON SATURDAY...THEN RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...AND TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ON SATURDAY THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO NC...BUT BY SUNDAY IT
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MONDAY FEATURES A AN
IMPROVED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WESTERLY FLOW...AS THE
RETROGRESSING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR EAST COAST TROUGHING AND A DIP
OF THE WESTERLIES TO OUR LATITUDE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EARLY ON UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH NO CAPPING INVERSION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST...MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY
APPEARS BY THE WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT IMPROVES AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS AND WINDS PICK UP WITH
EAST COAST TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
IS TO THE S-SW AND THAT IS WHERE SOME RADAR ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED OVER THE SW UPSTATE OF SC. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS SCT TSRA
EASTWARD ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS BY 20Z AND THEN TO THE NORTH
CIRCA 21-22Z. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO WITH A TEMPO
TSRA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A VCSH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
EXCEPT IF A TSRA AFFECTS THE AIRFIELD.

ELSEWHERE...SAME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE AIRFIELDS. LOOKS LIKE THE SC AIRFIELDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE LEE TROUGH. HENCE...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT
KAND/KGSP/KGMU FROM 20-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES LESS AT AVL AND HKY
SO WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH THERE. THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTION IS FOR
SOME FOG AT KAVL EARLY TUE MORNING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING VSBY`S
TO LOWER TO AROUND 2 MILES AT KAVL IN FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...LG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061639
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1239 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1225 PM...GOING FORECAST ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK WITH NO ECHOES ON
RADAR AT THE MOMENT. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH POP FORECAST ALTHOUGH
THE BLUE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN A CAPE MINIMA...THOUGH EDGING UPWARD
TO AROUND 1000J. 16Z HRRR DEVELOPS RANDOM WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM AS CAPES CREEPING
UP TO AROUND 2000J OVER THE PIEDMONT ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY
AIR SHOWING UP IN BUFKIT PROFILES. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
TO THE EAST WHERE BEST INSOLATION RESIDES.

AS OF 10 AM...RADAR SHOWS SOME DISSIPATING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO NE GA. SATELLITE PICS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDINESS FROM FAR WESTERN NC INTO GA APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX. THE 12Z NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY E-NE. THE NAM
IS THE MOST BULLISH IN TRIGGERING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEVELOPING MORE SCT TSRA
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST CAMS ARE MUCH MORE
MUTED. USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST CONSSHORT AND NAM ND5 POPS. THIS
RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ESCAPRMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO
OVER PARTS OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALSO TRENDED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND SKY TO LATEST CONSHORT DATA.

AS OF 645 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS NEWD. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
HOWEVER ILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACRS THE NRN MTN/FOOTHILL ZONES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE NO MORE THAN
SPRINKLES IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE SHOULD MIX OUT BY 9 A.M. OR SO.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS
EXCEPT PERHAPS TO ALLOW THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWFA AT
DAYBREAK TO CONTINUE SPREADING EAST THRU THE MRNG. MAJOR MODELS
INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF RUNS MAINLY KICK
OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TIED TO SAID
UPPER TROFFING WILL EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  FURTHER EAST...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO IMPROVING/PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  IN RESPONSE...MODELS INDICATE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ON
TUESDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1K-2K SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS...THE
FCST FOR TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY FAVORED POPS WITH MID/HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS ARE LOWEST.  POPS OVER
THE LOW TERRAIN REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DUE TO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...DESPITE SOME FOCUSING POSSIBLE ALONG PIEDMONT
TROFFING.  DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THANKS TO INVERTED
V PROFILES AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS.

POPS WILL TAPER TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HEATING LOSS.  MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND BEGIN A MULTIDAY JOURNEY OF WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OH VALLEY...ALL
THE WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWFA.  IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT.  PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEP/DRY MIXED
LAYER...AND WEAK SHEAR LEADING TO PULSE STORMS WITH MICROBURSTS/HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN AT CHANCE
LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FEATURED OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS.  OVERALL...EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES LEADING TO AT LEAST
MODEST CAPPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WHILE A BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.  THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE
AXIS AMONGST THE QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.  THUS...THE FCST FEATURES ONLY DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH POPS AROUND OR JUST BELOW
CLIMO LEVELS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPS ON THE DESCENDING BRANCH.  ON TOP OF
INCREASING DIURNAL CHANCES DUE TO WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE...THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
PROPAGATION.  THUS...POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY
SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COULD YIELD
INCREASED HEAT THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS...WHICH WILL THIN AND
MOVE NEWD THRU THE MRNG. HOWEVER SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND FOG ARE BEING
REPORTED NORTH AND SOUTH OF KCLT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THESE WILL AFFECT THE FIELD...BUT MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THEY WILL
LIFT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS
MRNG. DURING THE DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF
THE MTNS...NW OVER KAVL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND PROPAGATE
EWD THRU THE AFTN. HAVE USED VCSH AND/OR VCTS AS NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS LOW CHANCE. CAN/T RULE OUT A TS AFFECTING ANY SITE
HOWEVER...WITH BIGGEST IMPACT LIKELY LTNG AND GUSTY WINDS.
TONIGHT...FLOW BECOMES RATHER LIGHT...THOUGH IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG OR LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP...EXCEPT IN
THE MTN VALLEYS. VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BUT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061639
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1239 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1225 PM...GOING FORECAST ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK WITH NO ECHOES ON
RADAR AT THE MOMENT. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH POP FORECAST ALTHOUGH
THE BLUE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN A CAPE MINIMA...THOUGH EDGING UPWARD
TO AROUND 1000J. 16Z HRRR DEVELOPS RANDOM WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON NOT FAVORING ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM AS CAPES CREEPING
UP TO AROUND 2000J OVER THE PIEDMONT ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY
AIR SHOWING UP IN BUFKIT PROFILES. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
TO THE EAST WHERE BEST INSOLATION RESIDES.

AS OF 10 AM...RADAR SHOWS SOME DISSIPATING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO NE GA. SATELLITE PICS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDINESS FROM FAR WESTERN NC INTO GA APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX. THE 12Z NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY E-NE. THE NAM
IS THE MOST BULLISH IN TRIGGERING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEVELOPING MORE SCT TSRA
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST CAMS ARE MUCH MORE
MUTED. USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST CONSSHORT AND NAM ND5 POPS. THIS
RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ESCAPRMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO
OVER PARTS OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALSO TRENDED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND SKY TO LATEST CONSHORT DATA.

AS OF 645 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS NEWD. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
HOWEVER ILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACRS THE NRN MTN/FOOTHILL ZONES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE NO MORE THAN
SPRINKLES IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE SHOULD MIX OUT BY 9 A.M. OR SO.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS
EXCEPT PERHAPS TO ALLOW THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWFA AT
DAYBREAK TO CONTINUE SPREADING EAST THRU THE MRNG. MAJOR MODELS
INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF RUNS MAINLY KICK
OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TIED TO SAID
UPPER TROFFING WILL EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  FURTHER EAST...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO IMPROVING/PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  IN RESPONSE...MODELS INDICATE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ON
TUESDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1K-2K SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS...THE
FCST FOR TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY FAVORED POPS WITH MID/HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS ARE LOWEST.  POPS OVER
THE LOW TERRAIN REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DUE TO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...DESPITE SOME FOCUSING POSSIBLE ALONG PIEDMONT
TROFFING.  DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THANKS TO INVERTED
V PROFILES AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS.

POPS WILL TAPER TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HEATING LOSS.  MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND BEGIN A MULTIDAY JOURNEY OF WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OH VALLEY...ALL
THE WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWFA.  IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT.  PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEP/DRY MIXED
LAYER...AND WEAK SHEAR LEADING TO PULSE STORMS WITH MICROBURSTS/HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN AT CHANCE
LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FEATURED OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS.  OVERALL...EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES LEADING TO AT LEAST
MODEST CAPPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WHILE A BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.  THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE
AXIS AMONGST THE QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.  THUS...THE FCST FEATURES ONLY DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH POPS AROUND OR JUST BELOW
CLIMO LEVELS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPS ON THE DESCENDING BRANCH.  ON TOP OF
INCREASING DIURNAL CHANCES DUE TO WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE...THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
PROPAGATION.  THUS...POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY
SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COULD YIELD
INCREASED HEAT THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS...WHICH WILL THIN AND
MOVE NEWD THRU THE MRNG. HOWEVER SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND FOG ARE BEING
REPORTED NORTH AND SOUTH OF KCLT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THESE WILL AFFECT THE FIELD...BUT MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THEY WILL
LIFT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS
MRNG. DURING THE DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF
THE MTNS...NW OVER KAVL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND PROPAGATE
EWD THRU THE AFTN. HAVE USED VCSH AND/OR VCTS AS NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS LOW CHANCE. CAN/T RULE OUT A TS AFFECTING ANY SITE
HOWEVER...WITH BIGGEST IMPACT LIKELY LTNG AND GUSTY WINDS.
TONIGHT...FLOW BECOMES RATHER LIGHT...THOUGH IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG OR LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP...EXCEPT IN
THE MTN VALLEYS. VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BUT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 061439
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM...RADAR SHOWS SOME DISSIPATING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO NE GA. SATELLITE PICS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDINESS FROM FAR WESTERN NC INTO GA APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX. THE 12Z NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY E-NE. THE NAM
IS THE MOST BULLISH IN TRIGGERING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEVELOPING MORE SCT TSRA
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST CAMS ARE MUCH MORE
MUTED. USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST CONSSHORT AND NAM ND5 POPS. THIS
RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ESCAPRMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO
OVER PARTS OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALSO TRENDED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND SKY TO LATEST CONSHORT DATA.

AS OF 645 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS NEWD. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
HOWEVER ILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACRS THE NRN MTN/FOOTHILL ZONES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE NO MORE THAN
SPRINKLES IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE SHOULD MIX OUT BY 9 A.M. OR SO.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS
EXCEPT PERHAPS TO ALLOW THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWFA AT
DAYBREAK TO CONTINUE SPREADING EAST THRU THE MRNG. MAJOR MODELS
INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF RUNS MAINLY KICK
OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TIED TO SAID
UPPER TROFFING WILL EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  FURTHER EAST...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO IMPROVING/PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  IN RESPONSE...MODELS INDICATE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ON
TUESDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1K-2K SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS...THE
FCST FOR TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY FAVORED POPS WITH MID/HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS ARE LOWEST.  POPS OVER
THE LOW TERRAIN REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DUE TO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...DESPITE SOME FOCUSING POSSIBLE ALONG PIEDMONT
TROFFING.  DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THANKS TO INVERTED
V PROFILES AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS.

POPS WILL TAPER TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HEATING LOSS.  MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND BEGIN A MULTIDAY JOURNEY OF WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OH VALLEY...ALL
THE WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWFA.  IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT.  PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEP/DRY MIXED
LAYER...AND WEAK SHEAR LEADING TO PULSE STORMS WITH MICROBURSTS/HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN AT CHANCE
LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FEATURED OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS.  OVERALL...EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES LEADING TO AT LEAST
MODEST CAPPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WHILE A BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.  THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE
AXIS AMONGST THE QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.  THUS...THE FCST FEATURES ONLY DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH POPS AROUND OR JUST BELOW
CLIMO LEVELS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPS ON THE DESCENDING BRANCH.  ON TOP OF
INCREASING DIURNAL CHANCES DUE TO WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE...THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
PROPAGATION.  THUS...POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY
SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COULD YIELD
INCREASED HEAT THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS...WHICH WILL THIN AND
MOVE NEWD THRU THE MRNG. HOWEVER SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND FOG ARE BEING
REPORTED NORTH AND SOUTH OF KCLT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THESE WILL AFFECT THE FIELD...BUT MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THEY WILL
LIFT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS
MRNG. DURING THE DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF
THE MTNS...NW OVER KAVL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND PROPAGATE
EWD THRU THE AFTN. HAVE USED VCSH AND/OR VCTS AS NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS LOW CHANCE. CAN/T RULE OUT A TS AFFECTING ANY SITE
HOWEVER...WITH BIGGEST IMPACT LIKELY LTNG AND GUSTY WINDS.
TONIGHT...FLOW BECOMES RATHER LIGHT...THOUGH IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG OR LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP...EXCEPT IN
THE MTN VALLEYS. VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BUT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061439
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM...RADAR SHOWS SOME DISSIPATING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO NE GA. SATELLITE PICS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDINESS FROM FAR WESTERN NC INTO GA APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX. THE 12Z NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY E-NE. THE NAM
IS THE MOST BULLISH IN TRIGGERING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEVELOPING MORE SCT TSRA
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST CAMS ARE MUCH MORE
MUTED. USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST CONSSHORT AND NAM ND5 POPS. THIS
RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ESCAPRMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO
OVER PARTS OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALSO TRENDED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND SKY TO LATEST CONSHORT DATA.

AS OF 645 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS NEWD. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
HOWEVER ILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACRS THE NRN MTN/FOOTHILL ZONES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE NO MORE THAN
SPRINKLES IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE SHOULD MIX OUT BY 9 A.M. OR SO.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS
EXCEPT PERHAPS TO ALLOW THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWFA AT
DAYBREAK TO CONTINUE SPREADING EAST THRU THE MRNG. MAJOR MODELS
INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF RUNS MAINLY KICK
OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TIED TO SAID
UPPER TROFFING WILL EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  FURTHER EAST...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO IMPROVING/PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  IN RESPONSE...MODELS INDICATE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ON
TUESDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1K-2K SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS...THE
FCST FOR TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY FAVORED POPS WITH MID/HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS ARE LOWEST.  POPS OVER
THE LOW TERRAIN REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DUE TO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...DESPITE SOME FOCUSING POSSIBLE ALONG PIEDMONT
TROFFING.  DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THANKS TO INVERTED
V PROFILES AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS.

POPS WILL TAPER TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HEATING LOSS.  MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND BEGIN A MULTIDAY JOURNEY OF WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OH VALLEY...ALL
THE WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWFA.  IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT.  PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEP/DRY MIXED
LAYER...AND WEAK SHEAR LEADING TO PULSE STORMS WITH MICROBURSTS/HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN AT CHANCE
LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FEATURED OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS.  OVERALL...EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES LEADING TO AT LEAST
MODEST CAPPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WHILE A BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.  THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE
AXIS AMONGST THE QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.  THUS...THE FCST FEATURES ONLY DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH POPS AROUND OR JUST BELOW
CLIMO LEVELS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPS ON THE DESCENDING BRANCH.  ON TOP OF
INCREASING DIURNAL CHANCES DUE TO WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE...THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
PROPAGATION.  THUS...POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY
SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COULD YIELD
INCREASED HEAT THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS...WHICH WILL THIN AND
MOVE NEWD THRU THE MRNG. HOWEVER SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND FOG ARE BEING
REPORTED NORTH AND SOUTH OF KCLT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THESE WILL AFFECT THE FIELD...BUT MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THEY WILL
LIFT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS
MRNG. DURING THE DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF
THE MTNS...NW OVER KAVL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND PROPAGATE
EWD THRU THE AFTN. HAVE USED VCSH AND/OR VCTS AS NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS LOW CHANCE. CAN/T RULE OUT A TS AFFECTING ANY SITE
HOWEVER...WITH BIGGEST IMPACT LIKELY LTNG AND GUSTY WINDS.
TONIGHT...FLOW BECOMES RATHER LIGHT...THOUGH IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG OR LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP...EXCEPT IN
THE MTN VALLEYS. VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BUT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 061048
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS NEWD. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
HOWEVER ILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACRS THE NRN MTN/FOOTHILL ZONES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE NO MORE THAN
SPRINKLES IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE SHOULD MIX OUT BY 9 A.M. OR SO.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS
EXCEPT PERHAPS TO ALLOW THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWFA AT
DAYBREAK TO CONTINUE SPREADING EAST THRU THE MRNG. MAJOR MODELS
INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF RUNS MAINLY KICK
OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TIED TO SAID
UPPER TROFFING WILL EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  FURTHER EAST...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO IMPROVING/PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  IN RESPONSE...MODELS INDICATE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ON
TUESDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1K-2K SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS...THE
FCST FOR TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY FAVORED POPS WITH MID/HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS ARE LOWEST.  POPS OVER
THE LOW TERRAIN REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DUE TO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...DESPITE SOME FOCUSING POSSIBLE ALONG PIEDMONT
TROFFING.  DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THANKS TO INVERTED
V PROFILES AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS.

POPS WILL TAPER TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HEATING LOSS.  MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND BEGIN A MULTIDAY JOURNEY OF WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OH VALLEY...ALL
THE WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWFA.  IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT.  PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEP/DRY MIXED
LAYER...AND WEAK SHEAR LEADING TO PULSE STORMS WITH MICROBURSTS/HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN AT CHANCE
LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FEATURED OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS.  OVERALL...EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES LEADING TO AT LEAST
MODEST CAPPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WHILE A BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.  THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE
AXIS AMONGST THE QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.  THUS...THE FCST FEATURES ONLY DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH POPS AROUND OR JUST BELOW
CLIMO LEVELS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPS ON THE DESCENDING BRANCH.  ON TOP OF
INCREASING DIURNAL CHANCES DUE TO WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE...THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
PROPAGATION.  THUS...POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY
SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COULD YIELD
INCREASED HEAT THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS...WHICH WILL THIN AND
MOVE NEWD THRU THE MRNG. HOWEVER SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND FOG ARE BEING
REPORTED NORTH AND SOUTH OF KCLT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THESE WILL AFFECT THE FIELD...BUT MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THEY WILL
LIFT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS
MRNG. DURING THE DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF
THE MTNS...NW OVER KAVL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND PROPAGATE
EWD THRU THE AFTN. HAVE USED VCSH AND/OR VCTS AS NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS LOW CHANCE. CAN/T RULE OUT A TS AFFECTING ANY SITE
HOWEVER...WITH BIGGEST IMPACT LIKELY LTNG AND GUSTY WINDS.
TONIGHT...FLOW BECOMES RATHER LIGHT...THOUGH IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG OR LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP...EXCEPT IN
THE MTN VALLEYS. VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BUT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061048
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS NEWD. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
HOWEVER ILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACRS THE NRN MTN/FOOTHILL ZONES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE NO MORE THAN
SPRINKLES IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE SHOULD MIX OUT BY 9 A.M. OR SO.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS
EXCEPT PERHAPS TO ALLOW THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWFA AT
DAYBREAK TO CONTINUE SPREADING EAST THRU THE MRNG. MAJOR MODELS
INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF RUNS MAINLY KICK
OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TIED TO SAID
UPPER TROFFING WILL EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  FURTHER EAST...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO IMPROVING/PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  IN RESPONSE...MODELS INDICATE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ON
TUESDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1K-2K SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS...THE
FCST FOR TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY FAVORED POPS WITH MID/HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS ARE LOWEST.  POPS OVER
THE LOW TERRAIN REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DUE TO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...DESPITE SOME FOCUSING POSSIBLE ALONG PIEDMONT
TROFFING.  DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THANKS TO INVERTED
V PROFILES AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS.

POPS WILL TAPER TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HEATING LOSS.  MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND BEGIN A MULTIDAY JOURNEY OF WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OH VALLEY...ALL
THE WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWFA.  IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT.  PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEP/DRY MIXED
LAYER...AND WEAK SHEAR LEADING TO PULSE STORMS WITH MICROBURSTS/HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN AT CHANCE
LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FEATURED OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS.  OVERALL...EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES LEADING TO AT LEAST
MODEST CAPPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WHILE A BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.  THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE
AXIS AMONGST THE QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.  THUS...THE FCST FEATURES ONLY DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH POPS AROUND OR JUST BELOW
CLIMO LEVELS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPS ON THE DESCENDING BRANCH.  ON TOP OF
INCREASING DIURNAL CHANCES DUE TO WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE...THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
PROPAGATION.  THUS...POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY
SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COULD YIELD
INCREASED HEAT THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS...WHICH WILL THIN AND
MOVE NEWD THRU THE MRNG. HOWEVER SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND FOG ARE BEING
REPORTED NORTH AND SOUTH OF KCLT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THESE WILL AFFECT THE FIELD...BUT MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THEY WILL
LIFT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS
MRNG. DURING THE DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF
THE MTNS...NW OVER KAVL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND PROPAGATE
EWD THRU THE AFTN. HAVE USED VCSH AND/OR VCTS AS NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS LOW CHANCE. CAN/T RULE OUT A TS AFFECTING ANY SITE
HOWEVER...WITH BIGGEST IMPACT LIKELY LTNG AND GUSTY WINDS.
TONIGHT...FLOW BECOMES RATHER LIGHT...THOUGH IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG OR LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP...EXCEPT IN
THE MTN VALLEYS. VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BUT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 061048
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS NEWD. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
HOWEVER ILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACRS THE NRN MTN/FOOTHILL ZONES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE NO MORE THAN
SPRINKLES IN MANY AREAS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER
THE PIEDMONT...BUT THESE SHOULD MIX OUT BY 9 A.M. OR SO.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS
EXCEPT PERHAPS TO ALLOW THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NRN CWFA AT
DAYBREAK TO CONTINUE SPREADING EAST THRU THE MRNG. MAJOR MODELS
INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF RUNS MAINLY KICK
OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TIED TO SAID
UPPER TROFFING WILL EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  FURTHER EAST...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO IMPROVING/PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  IN RESPONSE...MODELS INDICATE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ON
TUESDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1K-2K SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS...THE
FCST FOR TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY FAVORED POPS WITH MID/HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS ARE LOWEST.  POPS OVER
THE LOW TERRAIN REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DUE TO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...DESPITE SOME FOCUSING POSSIBLE ALONG PIEDMONT
TROFFING.  DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THANKS TO INVERTED
V PROFILES AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS.

POPS WILL TAPER TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HEATING LOSS.  MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND BEGIN A MULTIDAY JOURNEY OF WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OH VALLEY...ALL
THE WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWFA.  IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT.  PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEP/DRY MIXED
LAYER...AND WEAK SHEAR LEADING TO PULSE STORMS WITH MICROBURSTS/HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN AT CHANCE
LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FEATURED OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS.  OVERALL...EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES LEADING TO AT LEAST
MODEST CAPPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WHILE A BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.  THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE
AXIS AMONGST THE QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.  THUS...THE FCST FEATURES ONLY DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH POPS AROUND OR JUST BELOW
CLIMO LEVELS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPS ON THE DESCENDING BRANCH.  ON TOP OF
INCREASING DIURNAL CHANCES DUE TO WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE...THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
PROPAGATION.  THUS...POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY
SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COULD YIELD
INCREASED HEAT THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS...WHICH WILL THIN AND
MOVE NEWD THRU THE MRNG. HOWEVER SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND FOG ARE BEING
REPORTED NORTH AND SOUTH OF KCLT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THESE WILL AFFECT THE FIELD...BUT MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THEY WILL
LIFT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS
MRNG. DURING THE DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF
THE MTNS...NW OVER KAVL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND PROPAGATE
EWD THRU THE AFTN. HAVE USED VCSH AND/OR VCTS AS NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS LOW CHANCE. CAN/T RULE OUT A TS AFFECTING ANY SITE
HOWEVER...WITH BIGGEST IMPACT LIKELY LTNG AND GUSTY WINDS.
TONIGHT...FLOW BECOMES RATHER LIGHT...THOUGH IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG OR LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP...EXCEPT IN
THE MTN VALLEYS. VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BUT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 060911
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
511 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS NEWD. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING ACCUMULATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MTNS WHERE SLIGHT UPSLOPING WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA
FORCING...AND IN THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME OF THE SHOWERS THAT FORM
MAY MIGRATE. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED EXTENT OF THE ISOLD POP MENTION...BUT
FCST IS OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS.
THE MAJOR MODELS INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF
RUNS MAINLY KICK OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TIED TO SAID
UPPER TROFFING WILL EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  FURTHER EAST...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO IMPROVING/PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  IN RESPONSE...MODELS INDICATE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ON
TUESDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1K-2K SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS...THE
FCST FOR TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY FAVORED POPS WITH MID/HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS ARE LOWEST.  POPS OVER
THE LOW TERRAIN REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DUE TO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...DESPITE SOME FOCUSING POSSIBLE ALONG PIEDMONT
TROFFING.  DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THANKS TO INVERTED
V PROFILES AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS.

POPS WILL TAPER TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HEATING LOSS.  MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND BEGIN A MULTIDAY JOURNEY OF WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OH VALLEY...ALL
THE WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWFA.  IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT.  PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEP/DRY MIXED
LAYER...AND WEAK SHEAR LEADING TO PULSE STORMS WITH MICROBURSTS/HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN AT CHANCE
LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FEATURED OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS.  OVERALL...EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES LEADING TO AT LEAST
MODEST CAPPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WHILE A BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.  THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE
AXIS AMONGST THE QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.  THUS...THE FCST FEATURES ONLY DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH POPS AROUND OR JUST BELOW
CLIMO LEVELS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPS ON THE DESCENDING BRANCH.  ON TOP OF
INCREASING DIURNAL CHANCES DUE TO WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE...THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
PROPAGATION.  THUS...POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY
SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COULD YIELD
INCREASED HEAT THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
09Z KCLT UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND THE MVFR CIG TEMPO BY AN
HOUR. WITH IFR DECKS SEEN NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FIELD...CONFIDENCE
INCREASED THAT A CIG WOULD FORM AND POTENTIALLY LOCK IN OVER KCLT
UNTIL MIXING OUT MID-MORNING.

AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS. THESE WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THRU THE MRNG. BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK...A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE AS WELL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS. SPOTTY
FEW-SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUD REPORTS ARE COMING IN FROM SOME AREA OBS
SITES...POSSIBLY FORMING OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
AND/OR IN UPSLOPE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME MODELS INDICATE A BAND
OF IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SC MIDLANDS AND ADVECTING
NWD...BUT THE CHC SEEMS LOW IN LIGHT OF RATHER DRY CONDITIONS.
NONETHELESS AT KCLT I HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR A 1000 FT CIG NEAR
DAYBREAK. SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE USUALLY FOGGY
SITES AROUND THE AREA...INCLUDING KAVL/KAND/KHKY. DURING THE
DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF THE MTNS.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA MAY FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND
PROPAGATE EWD THRU THE AFTN. PROB30 MENTION AT ALL SITES WITH TIMING
FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND THE NAM.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 060911
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
511 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOSING INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS NEWD. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING ACCUMULATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MTNS WHERE SLIGHT UPSLOPING WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA
FORCING...AND IN THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME OF THE SHOWERS THAT FORM
MAY MIGRATE. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED EXTENT OF THE ISOLD POP MENTION...BUT
FCST IS OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS.
THE MAJOR MODELS INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF
RUNS MAINLY KICK OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TIED TO SAID
UPPER TROFFING WILL EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  FURTHER EAST...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO IMPROVING/PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  IN RESPONSE...MODELS INDICATE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ON
TUESDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1K-2K SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS...THE
FCST FOR TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY FAVORED POPS WITH MID/HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS ARE LOWEST.  POPS OVER
THE LOW TERRAIN REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DUE TO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...DESPITE SOME FOCUSING POSSIBLE ALONG PIEDMONT
TROFFING.  DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THANKS TO INVERTED
V PROFILES AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS.

POPS WILL TAPER TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HEATING LOSS.  MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND BEGIN A MULTIDAY JOURNEY OF WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OH VALLEY...ALL
THE WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWFA.  IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT.  PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEP/DRY MIXED
LAYER...AND WEAK SHEAR LEADING TO PULSE STORMS WITH MICROBURSTS/HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN AT CHANCE
LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FEATURED OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS.  OVERALL...EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES LEADING TO AT LEAST
MODEST CAPPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WHILE A BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.  THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE
AXIS AMONGST THE QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.  THUS...THE FCST FEATURES ONLY DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH POPS AROUND OR JUST BELOW
CLIMO LEVELS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPS ON THE DESCENDING BRANCH.  ON TOP OF
INCREASING DIURNAL CHANCES DUE TO WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE...THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
PROPAGATION.  THUS...POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY
SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COULD YIELD
INCREASED HEAT THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
09Z KCLT UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND THE MVFR CIG TEMPO BY AN
HOUR. WITH IFR DECKS SEEN NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FIELD...CONFIDENCE
INCREASED THAT A CIG WOULD FORM AND POTENTIALLY LOCK IN OVER KCLT
UNTIL MIXING OUT MID-MORNING.

AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS. THESE WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THRU THE MRNG. BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK...A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE AS WELL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS. SPOTTY
FEW-SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUD REPORTS ARE COMING IN FROM SOME AREA OBS
SITES...POSSIBLY FORMING OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
AND/OR IN UPSLOPE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME MODELS INDICATE A BAND
OF IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SC MIDLANDS AND ADVECTING
NWD...BUT THE CHC SEEMS LOW IN LIGHT OF RATHER DRY CONDITIONS.
NONETHELESS AT KCLT I HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR A 1000 FT CIG NEAR
DAYBREAK. SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE USUALLY FOGGY
SITES AROUND THE AREA...INCLUDING KAVL/KAND/KHKY. DURING THE
DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF THE MTNS.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA MAY FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND
PROPAGATE EWD THRU THE AFTN. PROB30 MENTION AT ALL SITES WITH TIMING
FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND THE NAM.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 060731
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS STARTING TO LOSE INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS
NEWD...EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NRN STREAM FLOW AS
A BROADER SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED OVER
THE WRN CAROLINAS...WITH RADAR RETURNS EVEN DIMINISHING OVER THE NC
MTNS. MESO MODELS GENERALLY FEATURE NO NEW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER
DAWN. SO FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING
ACCUMULATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS WHERE SLIGHT UPSLOPING
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING. HOWEVER A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS.
THE MAJOR MODELS INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF
RUNS MAINLY KICK OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TIED TO SAID
UPPER TROFFING WILL EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  FURTHER EAST...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO IMPROVING/PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  IN RESPONSE...MODELS INDICATE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ON
TUESDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1K-2K SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS...THE
FCST FOR TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY FAVORED POPS WITH MID/HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS ARE LOWEST.  POPS OVER
THE LOW TERRAIN REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DUE TO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...DESPITE SOME FOCUSING POSSIBLE ALONG PIEDMONT
TROFFING.  DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THANKS TO INVERTED
V PROFILES AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS.

POPS WILL TAPER TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HEATING LOSS.  MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND BEGIN A MULTIDAY JOURNEY OF WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OH VALLEY...ALL
THE WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWFA.  IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT.  PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEP/DRY MIXED
LAYER...AND WEAK SHEAR LEADING TO PULSE STORMS WITH MICROBURSTS/HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN AT CHANCE
LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FEATURED OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS.  OVERALL...EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES LEADING TO AT LEAST
MODEST CAPPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WHILE A BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.  THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE
AXIS AMONGST THE QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.  THUS...THE FCST FEATURES ONLY DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH POPS AROUND OR JUST BELOW
CLIMO LEVELS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPS ON THE DESCENDING BRANCH.  ON TOP OF
INCREASING DIURNAL CHANCES DUE TO WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE...THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
PROPAGATION.  THUS...POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY
SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COULD YIELD
INCREASED HEAT THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS. THESE WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THRU THE MRNG. BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK...A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE AS WELL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS. SPOTTY
FEW-SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUD REPORTS ARE COMING IN FROM SOME AREA OBS
SITES...POSSIBLY FORMING OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
AND/OR IN UPSLOPE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME MODELS INDICATE A BAND
OF IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SC MIDLANDS AND ADVECTING
NWD...BUT THE CHC SEEMS LOW IN LIGHT OF RATHER DRY CONDITIONS.
NONETHELESS AT KCLT I HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR A 1000 FT CIG NEAR
DAYBREAK. SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE USUALLY FOGGY
SITES AROUND THE AREA...INCLUDING KAVL/KAND/KHKY. DURING THE
DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF THE MTNS.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA MAY FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND
PROPAGATE EWD THRU THE AFTN. PROB30 MENTION AT ALL SITES WITH TIMING
FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND THE NAM.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 060731
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS STARTING TO LOSE INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS
NEWD...EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NRN STREAM FLOW AS
A BROADER SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED OVER
THE WRN CAROLINAS...WITH RADAR RETURNS EVEN DIMINISHING OVER THE NC
MTNS. MESO MODELS GENERALLY FEATURE NO NEW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER
DAWN. SO FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING
ACCUMULATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS WHERE SLIGHT UPSLOPING
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING. HOWEVER A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS.
THE MAJOR MODELS INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF
RUNS MAINLY KICK OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TIED TO SAID
UPPER TROFFING WILL EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  FURTHER EAST...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO IMPROVING/PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  IN RESPONSE...MODELS INDICATE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ON
TUESDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1K-2K SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS...THE
FCST FOR TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY FAVORED POPS WITH MID/HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS ARE LOWEST.  POPS OVER
THE LOW TERRAIN REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DUE TO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...DESPITE SOME FOCUSING POSSIBLE ALONG PIEDMONT
TROFFING.  DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THANKS TO INVERTED
V PROFILES AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS.

POPS WILL TAPER TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HEATING LOSS.  MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND BEGIN A MULTIDAY JOURNEY OF WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OH VALLEY...ALL
THE WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWFA.  IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT.  PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEP/DRY MIXED
LAYER...AND WEAK SHEAR LEADING TO PULSE STORMS WITH MICROBURSTS/HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN AT CHANCE
LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FEATURED OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS.  OVERALL...EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES LEADING TO AT LEAST
MODEST CAPPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WHILE A BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.  THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE
AXIS AMONGST THE QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.  THUS...THE FCST FEATURES ONLY DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH POPS AROUND OR JUST BELOW
CLIMO LEVELS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPS ON THE DESCENDING BRANCH.  ON TOP OF
INCREASING DIURNAL CHANCES DUE TO WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE...THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
PROPAGATION.  THUS...POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY
SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COULD YIELD
INCREASED HEAT THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS. THESE WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THRU THE MRNG. BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK...A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE AS WELL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS. SPOTTY
FEW-SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUD REPORTS ARE COMING IN FROM SOME AREA OBS
SITES...POSSIBLY FORMING OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
AND/OR IN UPSLOPE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME MODELS INDICATE A BAND
OF IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SC MIDLANDS AND ADVECTING
NWD...BUT THE CHC SEEMS LOW IN LIGHT OF RATHER DRY CONDITIONS.
NONETHELESS AT KCLT I HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR A 1000 FT CIG NEAR
DAYBREAK. SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE USUALLY FOGGY
SITES AROUND THE AREA...INCLUDING KAVL/KAND/KHKY. DURING THE
DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF THE MTNS.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA MAY FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND
PROPAGATE EWD THRU THE AFTN. PROB30 MENTION AT ALL SITES WITH TIMING
FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND THE NAM.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 060731
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS STARTING TO LOSE INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS
NEWD...EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NRN STREAM FLOW AS
A BROADER SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED OVER
THE WRN CAROLINAS...WITH RADAR RETURNS EVEN DIMINISHING OVER THE NC
MTNS. MESO MODELS GENERALLY FEATURE NO NEW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER
DAWN. SO FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING
ACCUMULATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS WHERE SLIGHT UPSLOPING
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING. HOWEVER A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS.
THE MAJOR MODELS INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF
RUNS MAINLY KICK OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TIED TO SAID
UPPER TROFFING WILL EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  FURTHER EAST...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO IMPROVING/PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  IN RESPONSE...MODELS INDICATE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ON
TUESDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1K-2K SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS...THE
FCST FOR TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY FAVORED POPS WITH MID/HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS ARE LOWEST.  POPS OVER
THE LOW TERRAIN REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DUE TO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...DESPITE SOME FOCUSING POSSIBLE ALONG PIEDMONT
TROFFING.  DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THANKS TO INVERTED
V PROFILES AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS.

POPS WILL TAPER TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HEATING LOSS.  MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND BEGIN A MULTIDAY JOURNEY OF WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OH VALLEY...ALL
THE WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWFA.  IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT.  PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEP/DRY MIXED
LAYER...AND WEAK SHEAR LEADING TO PULSE STORMS WITH MICROBURSTS/HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN AT CHANCE
LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FEATURED OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS.  OVERALL...EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES LEADING TO AT LEAST
MODEST CAPPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WHILE A BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.  THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE
AXIS AMONGST THE QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.  THUS...THE FCST FEATURES ONLY DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH POPS AROUND OR JUST BELOW
CLIMO LEVELS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPS ON THE DESCENDING BRANCH.  ON TOP OF
INCREASING DIURNAL CHANCES DUE TO WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE...THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
PROPAGATION.  THUS...POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY
SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COULD YIELD
INCREASED HEAT THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS. THESE WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THRU THE MRNG. BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK...A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE AS WELL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS. SPOTTY
FEW-SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUD REPORTS ARE COMING IN FROM SOME AREA OBS
SITES...POSSIBLY FORMING OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
AND/OR IN UPSLOPE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME MODELS INDICATE A BAND
OF IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SC MIDLANDS AND ADVECTING
NWD...BUT THE CHC SEEMS LOW IN LIGHT OF RATHER DRY CONDITIONS.
NONETHELESS AT KCLT I HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR A 1000 FT CIG NEAR
DAYBREAK. SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE USUALLY FOGGY
SITES AROUND THE AREA...INCLUDING KAVL/KAND/KHKY. DURING THE
DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF THE MTNS.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA MAY FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND
PROPAGATE EWD THRU THE AFTN. PROB30 MENTION AT ALL SITES WITH TIMING
FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND THE NAM.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 060731
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS STARTING TO LOSE INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS
NEWD...EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NRN STREAM FLOW AS
A BROADER SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED OVER
THE WRN CAROLINAS...WITH RADAR RETURNS EVEN DIMINISHING OVER THE NC
MTNS. MESO MODELS GENERALLY FEATURE NO NEW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER
DAWN. SO FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING
ACCUMULATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS WHERE SLIGHT UPSLOPING
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING. HOWEVER A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA.

CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU MOST OF THE DAY.
THOUGH EMBEDDED VORTICES MIGHT PROVIDE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIFT...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON POPS.
THE MAJOR MODELS INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ALLOWING SPC AND NSSL WRF
RUNS MAINLY KICK OFF ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT
MIDDAY...PROPAGATING IT EWD AND FEATURING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY MID-AFTN. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE SEEN BETWEEN
NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...MORESO THAN USUAL. GFS SHOWS
POORER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS ON ACCOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS BOTH MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN SHOWERS WITH
BUOYANCY IN QUESTION. PROFILES WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH MIGHT ALLOW TSTMS TO PRODUCE ROBUST
OUTFLOWS...PARTICULARLY IF THE HIGHER NAM CAPES VERIFY. HOWEVER I
WILL NOT VENTURE TO SAY THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

TONIGHT POPS DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND CONTINUED
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP OVER
THE TENN VALLEY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH...I KEPT AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION AND MCLDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS MORNING...ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TIED TO SAID
UPPER TROFFING WILL EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  FURTHER EAST...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO IMPROVING/PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  IN RESPONSE...MODELS INDICATE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ON
TUESDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1K-2K SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS...THE
FCST FOR TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY FAVORED POPS WITH MID/HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS ARE LOWEST.  POPS OVER
THE LOW TERRAIN REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS DUE TO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...DESPITE SOME FOCUSING POSSIBLE ALONG PIEDMONT
TROFFING.  DUE TO WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE AND COULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THANKS TO INVERTED
V PROFILES AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS.

POPS WILL TAPER TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HEATING LOSS.  MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND BEGIN A MULTIDAY JOURNEY OF WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OH VALLEY...ALL
THE WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWFA.  IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT.  PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEP/DRY MIXED
LAYER...AND WEAK SHEAR LEADING TO PULSE STORMS WITH MICROBURSTS/HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN AT CHANCE
LEVELS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FEATURED OVER THE
PIEDMONT REGIONS.  OVERALL...EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES LEADING TO AT LEAST
MODEST CAPPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WHILE A BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.  THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ATOP THE RIDGE
AXIS AMONGST THE QUASIZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTHEAST GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.  THUS...THE FCST FEATURES ONLY DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH POPS AROUND OR JUST BELOW
CLIMO LEVELS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPS ON THE DESCENDING BRANCH.  ON TOP OF
INCREASING DIURNAL CHANCES DUE TO WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE...THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
PROPAGATION.  THUS...POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO LEVELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY
SUNDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COULD YIELD
INCREASED HEAT THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS. THESE WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THRU THE MRNG. BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK...A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE AS WELL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS. SPOTTY
FEW-SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUD REPORTS ARE COMING IN FROM SOME AREA OBS
SITES...POSSIBLY FORMING OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
AND/OR IN UPSLOPE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME MODELS INDICATE A BAND
OF IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SC MIDLANDS AND ADVECTING
NWD...BUT THE CHC SEEMS LOW IN LIGHT OF RATHER DRY CONDITIONS.
NONETHELESS AT KCLT I HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR A 1000 FT CIG NEAR
DAYBREAK. SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE USUALLY FOGGY
SITES AROUND THE AREA...INCLUDING KAVL/KAND/KHKY. DURING THE
DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF THE MTNS.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA MAY FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND
PROPAGATE EWD THRU THE AFTN. PROB30 MENTION AT ALL SITES WITH TIMING
FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND THE NAM.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 060602
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PATTERN
FEATURINGSCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MON...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS STARTING TO LOSE INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS
NEWD...EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NRN STREAM FLOW AS
A BROADER SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED OVER
THE WRN CAROLINAS...WITH RADAR RETURNS EVEN DIMINISHING OVER THE NC
MTNS. MESO MODELS GENERALLY FEATURE NO NEW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER
DAWN. SO FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING
ACCUMULATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS WHERE SLIGHT UPSLOPING
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING. HOWEVER A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA.

AS OF SUNDAY AFTN...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE
TROUGH. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR
ALOFT IN PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL
DRY AIR WRAPPING IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD ARISE. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS. THESE WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THRU THE MRNG. BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK...A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE AS WELL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS. SPOTTY
FEW-SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUD REPORTS ARE COMING IN FROM SOME AREA OBS
SITES...POSSIBLY FORMING OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
AND/OR IN UPSLOPE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME MODELS INDICATE A BAND
OF IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SC MIDLANDS AND ADVECTING
NWD...BUT THE CHC SEEMS LOW IN LIGHT OF RATHER DRY CONDITIONS.
NONETHELESS AT KCLT I HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR A 1000 FT CIG NEAR
DAYBREAK. SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE USUALLY FOGGY
SITES AROUND THE AREA...INCLUDING KAVL/KAND/KHKY. DURING THE
DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF THE MTNS.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA MAY FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND
PROPAGATE EWD THRU THE AFTN. PROB30 MENTION AT ALL SITES WITH TIMING
FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND THE NAM.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  99%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 060602
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PATTERN
FEATURINGSCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MON...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS STARTING TO LOSE INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS
NEWD...EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NRN STREAM FLOW AS
A BROADER SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED OVER
THE WRN CAROLINAS...WITH RADAR RETURNS EVEN DIMINISHING OVER THE NC
MTNS. MESO MODELS GENERALLY FEATURE NO NEW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER
DAWN. SO FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING
ACCUMULATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS WHERE SLIGHT UPSLOPING
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING. HOWEVER A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA.

AS OF SUNDAY AFTN...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE
TROUGH. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR
ALOFT IN PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL
DRY AIR WRAPPING IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD ARISE. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS. THESE WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THRU THE MRNG. BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK...A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE AS WELL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS. SPOTTY
FEW-SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUD REPORTS ARE COMING IN FROM SOME AREA OBS
SITES...POSSIBLY FORMING OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
AND/OR IN UPSLOPE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME MODELS INDICATE A BAND
OF IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SC MIDLANDS AND ADVECTING
NWD...BUT THE CHC SEEMS LOW IN LIGHT OF RATHER DRY CONDITIONS.
NONETHELESS AT KCLT I HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR A 1000 FT CIG NEAR
DAYBREAK. SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE USUALLY FOGGY
SITES AROUND THE AREA...INCLUDING KAVL/KAND/KHKY. DURING THE
DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF THE MTNS.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA MAY FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND
PROPAGATE EWD THRU THE AFTN. PROB30 MENTION AT ALL SITES WITH TIMING
FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND THE NAM.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  99%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 060602
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PATTERN
FEATURINGSCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MON...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS STARTING TO LOSE INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS
NEWD...EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NRN STREAM FLOW AS
A BROADER SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED OVER
THE WRN CAROLINAS...WITH RADAR RETURNS EVEN DIMINISHING OVER THE NC
MTNS. MESO MODELS GENERALLY FEATURE NO NEW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER
DAWN. SO FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING
ACCUMULATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS WHERE SLIGHT UPSLOPING
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING. HOWEVER A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA.

AS OF SUNDAY AFTN...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE
TROUGH. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR
ALOFT IN PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL
DRY AIR WRAPPING IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD ARISE. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS. THESE WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THRU THE MRNG. BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK...A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE AS WELL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS. SPOTTY
FEW-SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUD REPORTS ARE COMING IN FROM SOME AREA OBS
SITES...POSSIBLY FORMING OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
AND/OR IN UPSLOPE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME MODELS INDICATE A BAND
OF IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SC MIDLANDS AND ADVECTING
NWD...BUT THE CHC SEEMS LOW IN LIGHT OF RATHER DRY CONDITIONS.
NONETHELESS AT KCLT I HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR A 1000 FT CIG NEAR
DAYBREAK. SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE USUALLY FOGGY
SITES AROUND THE AREA...INCLUDING KAVL/KAND/KHKY. DURING THE
DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF THE MTNS.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA MAY FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND
PROPAGATE EWD THRU THE AFTN. PROB30 MENTION AT ALL SITES WITH TIMING
FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND THE NAM.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  99%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 060602
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PATTERN
FEATURINGSCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MON...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE CWFA
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS STARTING TO LOSE INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS
NEWD...EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE NRN STREAM FLOW AS
A BROADER SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BEST
DPVA IS ALREADY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED OVER
THE WRN CAROLINAS...WITH RADAR RETURNS EVEN DIMINISHING OVER THE NC
MTNS. MESO MODELS GENERALLY FEATURE NO NEW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER
DAWN. SO FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING
ACCUMULATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS WHERE SLIGHT UPSLOPING
WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING. HOWEVER A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA.

AS OF SUNDAY AFTN...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE
TROUGH. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR
ALOFT IN PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL
DRY AIR WRAPPING IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD ARISE. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ARE CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS. THESE WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THRU THE MRNG. BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK...A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE AS WELL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS. SPOTTY
FEW-SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUD REPORTS ARE COMING IN FROM SOME AREA OBS
SITES...POSSIBLY FORMING OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
AND/OR IN UPSLOPE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME MODELS INDICATE A BAND
OF IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SC MIDLANDS AND ADVECTING
NWD...BUT THE CHC SEEMS LOW IN LIGHT OF RATHER DRY CONDITIONS.
NONETHELESS AT KCLT I HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR A 1000 FT CIG NEAR
DAYBREAK. SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE USUALLY FOGGY
SITES AROUND THE AREA...INCLUDING KAVL/KAND/KHKY. DURING THE
DAY...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY SW EAST OF THE MTNS.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA MAY FORM INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND
PROPAGATE EWD THRU THE AFTN. PROB30 MENTION AT ALL SITES WITH TIMING
FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND THE NAM.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  99%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 060204
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1004 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT DRYING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST FOR
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PERIOD OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA. THE DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIP MOVES/ROTATES OFF TO THE N. STILL A MINOR CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER SOME PARTS OF THE AREA...LIKE EXTREME NE GEORGIA AND THE
NW PIEDMONT OF NC...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MAIN
CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS IN SOME THE PLACES WHERE RAIN FINALLY
MOVED THRU IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 6 DEG C/KM. RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
OVERNIGHT...EVEN AFTER ANY DPVA ALOFT HAS PASSED. THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF THE
WATCH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS
CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS BAND OF TSRA SEEN ON RADAR BETWEEN
KCLT AND KCAE. THINK THE MOVEMENT NNE WILL CARRY IT TO THE EAST OF
THE TERMINAL AND THUS LIGHTNING IS NOT LIKELY VICINITY OF KCLT...BUT
WILL BE READY TO AMEND IF THAT THINKING CHANGES BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. INSTEAD...WILL KEEP A VCSH IN PLACE THRU THE EVENING
HOURS...UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z...FOR LINGERING SHOWERS. THINK LOW CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN SCT AS LONG AS THE PRECIP BAND SLIPS EAST...WHILE WIND
REMAINS STEADY FROM THE S. OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW CLOUD
CEILING...AS THE RUC INDICATES MVFR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT
THINK AT THIS POINT THE FLOW BECOMING MORE SW OVERNIGHT DOES NOT
FAVOR AS MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS UPSTREAM TO ADVECT IN. SO...WILL KEEP THE TAF VFR. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WIND TO COME AROUND LIGHT SW WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN. MODELS NOT EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES AWAY FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE AS MID/UPPER LEVELS LOOK UNFAVORABLE...SO WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE HANDLED WITH A VCSH. SOME LOCATIONS COULD
HAVE FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AROUND DAYBREAK...IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY...MAINLY AT KAVL/KAND/KHKY. SHOWER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
GREAT AWAY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE...SO HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW. EXPECT WIND TO REMAIN SW ON MONDAY...EXCEPT LIGHT NW
AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%     MED   74%
KHKY       LOW   58%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   74%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 060204
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1004 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT DRYING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST FOR
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PERIOD OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA. THE DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIP MOVES/ROTATES OFF TO THE N. STILL A MINOR CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER SOME PARTS OF THE AREA...LIKE EXTREME NE GEORGIA AND THE
NW PIEDMONT OF NC...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MAIN
CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS IN SOME THE PLACES WHERE RAIN FINALLY
MOVED THRU IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 6 DEG C/KM. RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
OVERNIGHT...EVEN AFTER ANY DPVA ALOFT HAS PASSED. THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF THE
WATCH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS
CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS BAND OF TSRA SEEN ON RADAR BETWEEN
KCLT AND KCAE. THINK THE MOVEMENT NNE WILL CARRY IT TO THE EAST OF
THE TERMINAL AND THUS LIGHTNING IS NOT LIKELY VICINITY OF KCLT...BUT
WILL BE READY TO AMEND IF THAT THINKING CHANGES BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. INSTEAD...WILL KEEP A VCSH IN PLACE THRU THE EVENING
HOURS...UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z...FOR LINGERING SHOWERS. THINK LOW CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN SCT AS LONG AS THE PRECIP BAND SLIPS EAST...WHILE WIND
REMAINS STEADY FROM THE S. OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW CLOUD
CEILING...AS THE RUC INDICATES MVFR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT
THINK AT THIS POINT THE FLOW BECOMING MORE SW OVERNIGHT DOES NOT
FAVOR AS MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS UPSTREAM TO ADVECT IN. SO...WILL KEEP THE TAF VFR. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WIND TO COME AROUND LIGHT SW WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN. MODELS NOT EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES AWAY FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE AS MID/UPPER LEVELS LOOK UNFAVORABLE...SO WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE HANDLED WITH A VCSH. SOME LOCATIONS COULD
HAVE FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AROUND DAYBREAK...IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY...MAINLY AT KAVL/KAND/KHKY. SHOWER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
GREAT AWAY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE...SO HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW. EXPECT WIND TO REMAIN SW ON MONDAY...EXCEPT LIGHT NW
AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%     MED   74%
KHKY       LOW   58%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   74%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 060004
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
804 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT DRYING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST FOR
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PERIOD OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...ALTHO ONE CONCENTRATED BAND OVER THE SC
MIDLANDS WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRUSH PAST THE WRN NC PIEDMONT ZONES.
THINK IT SAFE TO START A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP PROBABILITY. MAIN
DECISION RIGHT NOW IS WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. PRECIP AMTS SEEN
IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...COMBINED WITH
DIMINISHING TREND SEEN ON KMRX/KGSP RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS LETTING
IT EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. THINK BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NW AND N
THRU LATE EVENING. OTHER FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD ALSO BE OUTSIDE
THE OLD WATCH...OVER THE EASTERN ZONES IF THAT BAND MOVES ACROSS.
OTHERWISE...WILL MAKE SOME ALTERATIONS TO TEMP TREND TO ACCT FOR
POCKETS OF RAIN COOLED AIR.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 6 DEG C/KM. RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
OVERNIGHT...EVEN AFTER ANY DPVA ALOFT HAS PASSED. THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF THE
WATCH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS
CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS BAND OF TSRA SEEN ON RADAR BETWEEN
KCLT AND KCAE. THINK THE MOVEMENT NNE WILL CARRY IT TO THE EAST OF
THE TERMINAL AND THUS LIGHTNING IS NOT LIKELY VICINITY OF KCLT...BUT
WILL BE READY TO AMEND IF THAT THINKING CHANGES BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. INSTEAD...WILL KEEP A VCSH IN PLACE THRU THE EVENING
HOURS...UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z...FOR LINGERING SHOWERS. THINK LOW CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN SCT AS LONG AS THE PRECIP BAND SLIPS EAST...WHILE WIND
REMAINS STEADY FROM THE S. OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW CLOUD
CEILING...AS THE RUC INDICATES MVFR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT
THINK AT THIS POINT THE FLOW BECOMING MORE SW OVERNIGHT DOES NOT
FAVOR AS MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS UPSTREAM TO ADVECT IN. SO...WILL KEEP THE TAF VFR. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WIND TO COME AROUND LIGHT SW WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN. MODELS NOT EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES AWAY FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE AS MID/UPPER LEVELS LOOK UNFAVORABLE...SO WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE HANDLED WITH A VCSH. SOME LOCATIONS COULD
HAVE FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AROUND DAYBREAK...IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY...MAINLY AT KAVL/KAND/KHKY. SHOWER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
GREAT AWAY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE...SO HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW. EXPECT WIND TO REMAIN SW ON MONDAY...EXCEPT LIGHT NW
AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       MED   74%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 060004
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
804 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT DRYING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST FOR
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PERIOD OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...ALTHO ONE CONCENTRATED BAND OVER THE SC
MIDLANDS WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRUSH PAST THE WRN NC PIEDMONT ZONES.
THINK IT SAFE TO START A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP PROBABILITY. MAIN
DECISION RIGHT NOW IS WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. PRECIP AMTS SEEN
IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE...COMBINED WITH
DIMINISHING TREND SEEN ON KMRX/KGSP RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS LETTING
IT EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. THINK BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NW AND N
THRU LATE EVENING. OTHER FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD ALSO BE OUTSIDE
THE OLD WATCH...OVER THE EASTERN ZONES IF THAT BAND MOVES ACROSS.
OTHERWISE...WILL MAKE SOME ALTERATIONS TO TEMP TREND TO ACCT FOR
POCKETS OF RAIN COOLED AIR.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 6 DEG C/KM. RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
OVERNIGHT...EVEN AFTER ANY DPVA ALOFT HAS PASSED. THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF THE
WATCH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS
CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS BAND OF TSRA SEEN ON RADAR BETWEEN
KCLT AND KCAE. THINK THE MOVEMENT NNE WILL CARRY IT TO THE EAST OF
THE TERMINAL AND THUS LIGHTNING IS NOT LIKELY VICINITY OF KCLT...BUT
WILL BE READY TO AMEND IF THAT THINKING CHANGES BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. INSTEAD...WILL KEEP A VCSH IN PLACE THRU THE EVENING
HOURS...UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z...FOR LINGERING SHOWERS. THINK LOW CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN SCT AS LONG AS THE PRECIP BAND SLIPS EAST...WHILE WIND
REMAINS STEADY FROM THE S. OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW CLOUD
CEILING...AS THE RUC INDICATES MVFR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT
THINK AT THIS POINT THE FLOW BECOMING MORE SW OVERNIGHT DOES NOT
FAVOR AS MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS UPSTREAM TO ADVECT IN. SO...WILL KEEP THE TAF VFR. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WIND TO COME AROUND LIGHT SW WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN. MODELS NOT EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES AWAY FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE AS MID/UPPER LEVELS LOOK UNFAVORABLE...SO WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE HANDLED WITH A VCSH. SOME LOCATIONS COULD
HAVE FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AROUND DAYBREAK...IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY...MAINLY AT KAVL/KAND/KHKY. SHOWER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
GREAT AWAY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE...SO HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW. EXPECT WIND TO REMAIN SW ON MONDAY...EXCEPT LIGHT NW
AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       MED   74%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 052036
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT DRYING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST FOR
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PERIOD OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...THREE AREAS OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
THE LARGEST WAS A BROKEN AREA OF SHOWER/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT. WILL RAISE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO LIKELY MAINLY ALONG AND E
OF I-77 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NEXT WAS A LINEAR BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE UPSTATE. WILL RAISE TO LIKELY MAINLY ALONG
THE I-26 CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
DEVELOPING IN THE COOLER AIR ALOFT CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
MTNS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE UPDATED TO ACCT FOR AREAS OF RAIN COOLED
AIR. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
WORK OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER OVER ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON.
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROUNDING THIS SYSTEM ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND PROVIDING SOME TRIGGERING FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 6 DEG C/KM. HOWEVER...SBCAPE
VALUES HAVE BUBBLED UP TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE NRN TIER AND
OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
FORM AMONG THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS GIVEN THE IMPROVING UPPER
SUPPORT. RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN MTNS IN LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT...EVEN AFTER ANY DPVA ALOFT
HAS PASSED. THE CURRENT FFA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF
THE WATCH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS
CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO STEADILY BUILD OVER THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER VORT LOBE ENERGY FROM THE
TROUGH W OF THE MTNS. THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION CROSSING THE AIRFIELD
CIRCA 19Z TO 20Z...BUT IT INITIALIZED POORLY IN UPSTREAM AREAS...SO
WILL CONFINE PRECIP MENTION TO SHRA AT PRESENT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING EVEN THOUGH THIS IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE MODELS/MOS.
EXPECT SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW
LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHTER THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE MTN AND FOOTHILL
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BETTER UPPER VORT LOBE
SUPPORT ARRIVES. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE BEST FROM KAVL TO KHKY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A VCTS AT THE UPSTATE SITES SINCE INSTABILITY HAS
SLOWLY REBOUNDED AFTER THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTERED. ANTICIPATE SW
FLOW WITH LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TURNING MORE NW AT KAVL BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MON MORNING...BUT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   70%     HIGH  90%     MED   64%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   57%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-
     052-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 052036
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT DRYING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST FOR
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PERIOD OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...THREE AREAS OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
THE LARGEST WAS A BROKEN AREA OF SHOWER/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT. WILL RAISE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO LIKELY MAINLY ALONG AND E
OF I-77 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NEXT WAS A LINEAR BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE UPSTATE. WILL RAISE TO LIKELY MAINLY ALONG
THE I-26 CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
DEVELOPING IN THE COOLER AIR ALOFT CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
MTNS AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE UPDATED TO ACCT FOR AREAS OF RAIN COOLED
AIR. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
WORK OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER OVER ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON.
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROUNDING THIS SYSTEM ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND PROVIDING SOME TRIGGERING FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 6 DEG C/KM. HOWEVER...SBCAPE
VALUES HAVE BUBBLED UP TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE NRN TIER AND
OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
FORM AMONG THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS GIVEN THE IMPROVING UPPER
SUPPORT. RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN MTNS IN LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT...EVEN AFTER ANY DPVA ALOFT
HAS PASSED. THE CURRENT FFA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF
THE WATCH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS
CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO STEADILY BUILD OVER THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER VORT LOBE ENERGY FROM THE
TROUGH W OF THE MTNS. THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION CROSSING THE AIRFIELD
CIRCA 19Z TO 20Z...BUT IT INITIALIZED POORLY IN UPSTREAM AREAS...SO
WILL CONFINE PRECIP MENTION TO SHRA AT PRESENT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING EVEN THOUGH THIS IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE MODELS/MOS.
EXPECT SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW
LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHTER THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE MTN AND FOOTHILL
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BETTER UPPER VORT LOBE
SUPPORT ARRIVES. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE BEST FROM KAVL TO KHKY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A VCTS AT THE UPSTATE SITES SINCE INSTABILITY HAS
SLOWLY REBOUNDED AFTER THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTERED. ANTICIPATE SW
FLOW WITH LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TURNING MORE NW AT KAVL BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MON MORNING...BUT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   70%     HIGH  90%     MED   64%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   57%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-
     052-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 051847
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT DRYING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST FOR
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL PERIOD OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER OVER ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON.
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROUNDING THIS SYSTEM ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND PROVIDING SOME TRIGGERING FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 6 DEG C/KM. HOWEVER...SBCAPE
VALUES HAVE BUBBLED UP TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE NRN TIER AND
OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
FORM AMONG THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS GIVEN THE IMPROVING UPPER
SUPPORT. RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN MTNS IN LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT...EVEN AFTER ANY DPVA ALOFT
HAS PASSED. THE CURRENT FFA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z. THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF
THE WATCH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LESS
CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON MONDAY EVENING A FILLING UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE OF AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS RESULTS IN OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING CHANNELED
EASTWARD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO OUR AREA IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS RELATIVE LULL
IN MOISTURE LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF WEAKENING
AND DECELERATING COLD FRONT IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY ON...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN
NC ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TX...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH FROM THE
ROCKIES TO ME. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES IT TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FORM SOME SHALLOW TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER OVER NC THAN SC AND GA. THE
MODELS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE LIFT CAN BE GENERATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO STEADILY BUILD OVER THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER VORT LOBE ENERGY FROM THE
TROUGH W OF THE MTNS. THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION CROSSING THE AIRFIELD
CIRCA 19Z TO 20Z...BUT IT INITIALIZED POORLY IN UPSTREAM AREAS...SO
WILL CONFINE PRECIP MENTION TO SHRA AT PRESENT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING EVEN THOUGH THIS IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE MODELS/MOS.
EXPECT SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW
LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHTER THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE MTN AND FOOTHILL
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BETTER UPPER VORT LOBE
SUPPORT ARRIVES. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE BEST FROM KAVL TO KHKY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A VCTS AT THE UPSTATE SITES SINCE INSTABILITY HAS
SLOWLY REBOUNDED AFTER THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTERED. ANTICIPATE SW
FLOW WITH LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TURNING MORE NW AT KAVL BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MON MORNING...BUT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   79%     HIGH  81%     MED   63%     MED   79%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  81%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-
     052-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 051800
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER OVER ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON.
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROUNDING THIS SYSTEM ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND PROVIDING SOME TRIGGERING FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 5.5 DEG C/KM. HOWEVER...SBCAPE
VALUES HAVE BUBBLED UP TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE NRN TIER AND
OVER THE PIEDMONT...SO AT LEAST SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM WITH
THE IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT. RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
WESTERN MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT EVEN AFTER
ANY DPVA ALOFT HAS PASSED. THE CURRENT FFA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH 00Z. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF THE WATCH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING MORE INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH
LESS CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF
THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT NEWD MONDAY
AS A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS. AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTN THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS DEPICTIONS OF THE FEATURE.
GFS MORE QUICKLY BRINGS IN SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SO FAR AS TO HAVE
RESOLVED A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTN. THE
NAM FEATURES MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY...SUGGESTING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW THE BETTER FORCING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
BALANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE INSTABILITY LATE. POPS REFLECT
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE...WITH MENTIONABLE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
MRNG...AND A PEAK EARLIER THAN THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. PWAT VALUES
WILL TAKE A HIT AS DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT
OTHERWISE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION VECTORS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A CATEGORY OR SO BUT REMAIN
BELOW CLIMO.

COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH MON EVENING...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SERN
STATES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACRS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WARRANTS A
LOW MTN POP OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TUE MRNG.

BY TUE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE REGAINED FOOTING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CWFA...THOUGH HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY TUE NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM
LOW MOVES EAST. SO DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
TUE POPS...CHANCES ENDING UP CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY JULY. PROFILES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE FLOW WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ALLOWING SHEAR PARAMETERS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLY SMALL
VALUES. PULSE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL RETURN AS
OUR MAIN CONCERN. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND NORMAL. WED NIGHT LOW
POPS WERE MAINTAINED NEAR THE TENN BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
SINKING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS ON WED AND THURS WILL BE
ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH A BROAD 591 HEIGHT CLOSED OFF ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGION. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THIS PATTERN
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A CLOSED 594 HEIGHT. THIS 500MB PATTERN
CENTER WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY MS AND LA ON THE GFS AND OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON THE ECMWF. MOST OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT THE NC MTNS AS THE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
IMPULSES ACROSS KY AND VA. THE TREND IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FROM WED THROUGH FRI...THEN MAY GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
WEST AS A DIP IN THE HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE CAROLINAS...THAT WOULD
TEND TO LOWER OUR TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO STEADILY BUILD OVER THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER VORT LOBE ENERGY FROM THE
TROUGH W OF THE MTNS. THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION CROSSING THE AIRFIELD
CIRCA 19Z TO 20Z...BUT IT INITIALIZED POORLY IN UPSTREAM AREAS...SO
WILL CONFINE PRECIP MENTION TO SHRA AT PRESENT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING EVEN THOUGH THIS IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE MODELS/MOS.
EXPECT SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW
LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHTER THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE MTN AND FOOTHILL
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BETTER UPPER VORT LOBE
SUPPORT ARRIVES. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE BEST FROM KAVL TO KHKY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A VCTS AT THE UPSTATE SITES SINCE INSTABILITY HAS
SLOWLY REBOUNDED AFTER THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTERED. ANTICIPATE SW
FLOW WITH LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TURNING MORE NW AT KAVL BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MON MORNING...BUT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   79%     HIGH  81%     MED   63%     MED   79%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  81%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-
     052-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 051800
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTER OVER ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON.
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROUNDING THIS SYSTEM ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND PROVIDING SOME TRIGGERING FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NE TONIGHT...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES ARE A RATHER MODEST 5 TO 5.5 DEG C/KM. HOWEVER...SBCAPE
VALUES HAVE BUBBLED UP TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE NRN TIER AND
OVER THE PIEDMONT...SO AT LEAST SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM WITH
THE IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT. RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
WESTERN MTNS IN LOW LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT EVEN AFTER
ANY DPVA ALOFT HAS PASSED. THE CURRENT FFA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH 00Z. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD SEE PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF THE WATCH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING MORE INTO AN NVA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH
LESS CLOUDS AND MORE HEATING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF
THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORMING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES AND IN A LEE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WARM AIR ALOFT IN PROFILES
SHOULD LIMIT CAPE SOMEWHAT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO REACH 6.5 DEG C/KM...AND WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
IN...A GENERAL TSTM THREAT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ARISE.
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT NEWD MONDAY
AS A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS. AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTN THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS DEPICTIONS OF THE FEATURE.
GFS MORE QUICKLY BRINGS IN SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SO FAR AS TO HAVE
RESOLVED A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTN. THE
NAM FEATURES MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY...SUGGESTING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW THE BETTER FORCING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
BALANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE INSTABILITY LATE. POPS REFLECT
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE...WITH MENTIONABLE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
MRNG...AND A PEAK EARLIER THAN THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. PWAT VALUES
WILL TAKE A HIT AS DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT
OTHERWISE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION VECTORS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A CATEGORY OR SO BUT REMAIN
BELOW CLIMO.

COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH MON EVENING...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SERN
STATES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACRS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WARRANTS A
LOW MTN POP OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TUE MRNG.

BY TUE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE REGAINED FOOTING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CWFA...THOUGH HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY TUE NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM
LOW MOVES EAST. SO DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
TUE POPS...CHANCES ENDING UP CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY JULY. PROFILES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE FLOW WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ALLOWING SHEAR PARAMETERS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLY SMALL
VALUES. PULSE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL RETURN AS
OUR MAIN CONCERN. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND NORMAL. WED NIGHT LOW
POPS WERE MAINTAINED NEAR THE TENN BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
SINKING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS ON WED AND THURS WILL BE
ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH A BROAD 591 HEIGHT CLOSED OFF ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGION. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THIS PATTERN
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A CLOSED 594 HEIGHT. THIS 500MB PATTERN
CENTER WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY MS AND LA ON THE GFS AND OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON THE ECMWF. MOST OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT THE NC MTNS AS THE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
IMPULSES ACROSS KY AND VA. THE TREND IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FROM WED THROUGH FRI...THEN MAY GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
WEST AS A DIP IN THE HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE CAROLINAS...THAT WOULD
TEND TO LOWER OUR TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO STEADILY BUILD OVER THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER VORT LOBE ENERGY FROM THE
TROUGH W OF THE MTNS. THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION CROSSING THE AIRFIELD
CIRCA 19Z TO 20Z...BUT IT INITIALIZED POORLY IN UPSTREAM AREAS...SO
WILL CONFINE PRECIP MENTION TO SHRA AT PRESENT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AGAIN
MONDAY MORNING EVEN THOUGH THIS IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE MODELS/MOS.
EXPECT SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW
LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHTER THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE MTN AND FOOTHILL
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BETTER UPPER VORT LOBE
SUPPORT ARRIVES. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE BEST FROM KAVL TO KHKY...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A VCTS AT THE UPSTATE SITES SINCE INSTABILITY HAS
SLOWLY REBOUNDED AFTER THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTERED. ANTICIPATE SW
FLOW WITH LOW END GUSTS THIS AFTN...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TURNING MORE NW AT KAVL BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MON MORNING...BUT WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...THE WEATHER REGIME WILL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...AND SPOTTY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   79%     HIGH  81%     MED   63%     MED   79%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  81%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-
     052-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 051452
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1052 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING
TO SPIN EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS MORNING. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAICS SHOW PLENTY OF SHOWERS ROUNDING THE CIRCULATION...BUT
WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RADARS ALSO SHOW CONVECTION SUPPRESSED
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THE SHOWERS AROUND THE LOW SHOULD
STEADILY FILL IN OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTN...AND THE SRN TIER
CONVECTION MAY WRAP UP ALONG THE ERN FRINGES OF OUR PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AS WELL...SO A GENERAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED FROM TOCCOA TO ELBERTON AND ACROSS THE WRN UPSTATE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THERE...SO WILL KEEP IT GOING UNTIL 00Z.

OTHERWISE...MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LIFT AND
SCATTER...BUT LAPS SBCAPE IS REBOUNDING NICELY WITH PLENTY OF 1000
TO 1300 J/KG VALUES EAST OF THE MTNS. WITH ANY BREAKS AT
ALL...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD MANAGE TO FIRE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL
BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST
THROUGH LATE DAY. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
OUR FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE NVA SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT NEWD MONDAY
AS A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS. AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTN THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS DEPICTIONS OF THE FEATURE.
GFS MORE QUICKLY BRINGS IN SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SO FAR AS TO HAVE
RESOLVED A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTN. THE
NAM FEATURES MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY...SUGGESTING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW THE BETTER FORCING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
BALANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE INSTABILITY LATE. POPS REFLECT
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE...WITH MENTIONABLE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
MRNG...AND A PEAK EARLIER THAN THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. PWAT VALUES
WILL TAKE A HIT AS DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT
OTHERWISE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION VECTORS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A CATEGORY OR SO BUT REMAIN
BELOW CLIMO.

COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH MON EVENING...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SERN
STATES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACRS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WARRANTS A
LOW MTN POP OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TUE MRNG.

BY TUE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE REGAINED FOOTING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CWFA...THOUGH HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY TUE NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM
LOW MOVES EAST. SO DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
TUE POPS...CHANCES ENDING UP CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY JULY. PROFILES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE FLOW WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ALLOWING SHEAR PARAMETERS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLY SMALL
VALUES. PULSE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL RETURN AS
OUR MAIN CONCERN. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND NORMAL. WED NIGHT LOW
POPS WERE MAINTAINED NEAR THE TENN BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
SINKING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS ON WED AND THURS WILL BE
ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH A BROAD 591 HEIGHT CLOSED OFF ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGION. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THIS PATTERN
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A CLOSED 594 HEIGHT. THIS 500MB PATTERN
CENTER WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY MS AND LA ON THE GFS AND OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON THE ECMWF. MOST OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT THE NC MTNS AS THE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
IMPULSES ACROSS KY AND VA. THE TREND IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FROM WED THROUGH FRI...THEN MAY GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
WEST AS A DIP IN THE HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE CAROLINAS...THAT WOULD
TEND TO LOWER OUR TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SHOULD
SCATTER MORE RAPIDLY 15Z TO 17Z. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AIRFIELD 18Z TO 19Z...BUT
IT HAS BEEN OVERDONE ON RECENT DAYS IN THIS AIRMASS. A NARROW TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSRA COULD BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT THIS AFTN SINCE SBCAPE
VALUES ARE ALREADY NEAR 1500 J/KG NEAR THE AIRFIELD. ANTICIPATE SW
WINDS TO INCREASE WITH LOW END GUSTS WITH MIXING. ANY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL END THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT FOR LOW CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...ANY RESIDUAL LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT/SCATTER THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS BY
NOON. LOWER VFR CIGS WILL FILL IN WITH ANY HEATING...AND SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL GIVEN THE UPPER
SUPPORT...BUT ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS MAY FORM THROUGHOUT WITH SBCAPE OFF
TO A GOOD START DESPITE THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS. SW WINDS WILL GUST
TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE UPSTATE SITES THIS AFTN WITH MIXING.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST. THIS DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA...AND ALSO EACH MORNING WHERE PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KGMU       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   75%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-
     052-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 051452
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1052 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING
TO SPIN EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS MORNING. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAICS SHOW PLENTY OF SHOWERS ROUNDING THE CIRCULATION...BUT
WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RADARS ALSO SHOW CONVECTION SUPPRESSED
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THE SHOWERS AROUND THE LOW SHOULD
STEADILY FILL IN OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTN...AND THE SRN TIER
CONVECTION MAY WRAP UP ALONG THE ERN FRINGES OF OUR PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AS WELL...SO A GENERAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED FROM TOCCOA TO ELBERTON AND ACROSS THE WRN UPSTATE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THERE...SO WILL KEEP IT GOING UNTIL 00Z.

OTHERWISE...MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LIFT AND
SCATTER...BUT LAPS SBCAPE IS REBOUNDING NICELY WITH PLENTY OF 1000
TO 1300 J/KG VALUES EAST OF THE MTNS. WITH ANY BREAKS AT
ALL...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD MANAGE TO FIRE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL
BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST
THROUGH LATE DAY. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
OUR FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE NVA SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT NEWD MONDAY
AS A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS. AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTN THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS DEPICTIONS OF THE FEATURE.
GFS MORE QUICKLY BRINGS IN SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SO FAR AS TO HAVE
RESOLVED A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTN. THE
NAM FEATURES MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY...SUGGESTING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW THE BETTER FORCING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
BALANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE INSTABILITY LATE. POPS REFLECT
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE...WITH MENTIONABLE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
MRNG...AND A PEAK EARLIER THAN THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. PWAT VALUES
WILL TAKE A HIT AS DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT
OTHERWISE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION VECTORS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A CATEGORY OR SO BUT REMAIN
BELOW CLIMO.

COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH MON EVENING...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SERN
STATES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACRS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WARRANTS A
LOW MTN POP OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TUE MRNG.

BY TUE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE REGAINED FOOTING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CWFA...THOUGH HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY TUE NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM
LOW MOVES EAST. SO DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
TUE POPS...CHANCES ENDING UP CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY JULY. PROFILES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE FLOW WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ALLOWING SHEAR PARAMETERS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLY SMALL
VALUES. PULSE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL RETURN AS
OUR MAIN CONCERN. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND NORMAL. WED NIGHT LOW
POPS WERE MAINTAINED NEAR THE TENN BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
SINKING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS ON WED AND THURS WILL BE
ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH A BROAD 591 HEIGHT CLOSED OFF ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGION. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THIS PATTERN
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A CLOSED 594 HEIGHT. THIS 500MB PATTERN
CENTER WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY MS AND LA ON THE GFS AND OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON THE ECMWF. MOST OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT THE NC MTNS AS THE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
IMPULSES ACROSS KY AND VA. THE TREND IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FROM WED THROUGH FRI...THEN MAY GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
WEST AS A DIP IN THE HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE CAROLINAS...THAT WOULD
TEND TO LOWER OUR TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...MORNING RESTRICTIONS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SHOULD
SCATTER MORE RAPIDLY 15Z TO 17Z. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AIRFIELD 18Z TO 19Z...BUT
IT HAS BEEN OVERDONE ON RECENT DAYS IN THIS AIRMASS. A NARROW TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSRA COULD BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT THIS AFTN SINCE SBCAPE
VALUES ARE ALREADY NEAR 1500 J/KG NEAR THE AIRFIELD. ANTICIPATE SW
WINDS TO INCREASE WITH LOW END GUSTS WITH MIXING. ANY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL END THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT FOR LOW CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...ANY RESIDUAL LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT/SCATTER THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS BY
NOON. LOWER VFR CIGS WILL FILL IN WITH ANY HEATING...AND SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL GIVEN THE UPPER
SUPPORT...BUT ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS MAY FORM THROUGHOUT WITH SBCAPE OFF
TO A GOOD START DESPITE THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS. SW WINDS WILL GUST
TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE UPSTATE SITES THIS AFTN WITH MIXING.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST. THIS DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA...AND ALSO EACH MORNING WHERE PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KGMU       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   75%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-
     052-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 051108
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
708 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT SUNDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
I85 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER QUIET/DRY.
BACKED OFF ON POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AS CAMS HAVE COME TO A
CONSENSUS ON LESS CONVECTION...WHILE THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO
INDICATE BETTER COVERAGE.  THUS PLACED A LITTLE LESS FAITH IN THE
NAM WITH THIS UPDATE.  THAT SAID...DO THINK THE CURRENT SHRA
COVERAGE WILL SUSTAIN AND SLOWLY ADVECT NORTHEAST BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AT BEST.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED SKY/TEMPS/DEWS TO BETTER
REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ATOP THE
TN VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO DEEP SW FLOW THROUGH THE PROFILE
OVER NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
BENEATH REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JETMAX ALONG WITH A SERIES OF
VORT IMPULSES WRAPPING AROUND THE H5 LOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WEAK
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.  A
STRONGER IMPULSE IS PROGGED BY GUIDANCE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF AROUND DAYBREAK LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS EASTCENTRAL GA.  ALTHOUGH WEAK...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH MID MORNING AHEAD OF SAID ACTIVITY YIELDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...THE OLD STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD INTO SW VA WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR BEST SFC
CONVERGENCE AND THUS RESIDUAL MODEL QPF TODAY.  THAT SAID...CANNOT
RULE OUT CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT OVER THE
MTNS THANKS TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW AND ANY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
FROM MODEST SSW LLJ.  THE FCST FEATURES NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GA/NC HIGH TERRAIN THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON.  POPS ARE TAPERED DOWN A BIT OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
WHERE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS LEVELS ARE FAVORED.  ALL SAID...AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL IMPULSE/CONVECTION THIS MORNING THERE SHOULD
BE A LULL BEFORE ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY.  EVEN
THEN...MODELS FAVOR RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY PROFILES THUS WOULD BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN GARDEN VARIETY TSRA WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER CELLS BEING SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE
BEST HEATING IS LIKELY.  POPS WILL TAPER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS EJECTING NORTHEAST.  WITH
THAT...THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH
EXPIRATION AT 00Z MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL AMIDST PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT NEWD MONDAY
AS A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS. AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTN THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS DEPICTIONS OF THE FEATURE.
GFS MORE QUICKLY BRINGS IN SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SO FAR AS TO HAVE
RESOLVED A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTN. THE
NAM FEATURES MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY...SUGGESTING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW THE BETTER FORCING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
BALANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE INSTABILITY LATE. POPS REFLECT
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE...WITH MENTIONABLE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
MRNG...AND A PEAK EARLIER THAN THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. PWAT VALUES
WILL TAKE A HIT AS DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT
OTHERWISE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION VECTORS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A CATEGORY OR SO BUT REMAIN
BELOW CLIMO.

COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH MON EVENING...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SERN
STATES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACRS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WARRANTS A
LOW MTN POP OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TUE MRNG.

BY TUE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE REGAINED FOOTING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CWFA...THOUGH HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY TUE NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM
LOW MOVES EAST. SO DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
TUE POPS...CHANCES ENDING UP CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY JULY. PROFILES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE FLOW WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ALLOWING SHEAR PARAMETERS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLY SMALL
VALUES. PULSE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL RETURN AS
OUR MAIN CONCERN. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND NORMAL. WED NIGHT LOW
POPS WERE MAINTAINED NEAR THE TENN BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
SINKING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS ON WED AND THURS WILL BE
ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH A BROAD 591 HEIGHT CLOSED OFF ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGION. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THIS PATTERN
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A CLOSED 594 HEIGHT. THIS 500MB PATTERN
CENTER WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY MS AND LA ON THE GFS AND OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON THE ECMWF. MOST OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT THE NC MTNS AS THE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
IMPULSES ACROSS KY AND VA. THE TREND IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FROM WED THROUGH FRI...THEN MAY GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
WEST AS A DIP IN THE HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE CAROLINAS...THAT WOULD
TEND TO LOWER OUR TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED AFTERNOON TSRA.
INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT SW WINDS UNDER BKN HIGH CLOUDS WITH A 1HR
TEMPO FROM 12Z-13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS SLIDING ALONG THE
I85 CORRIDOR.  OTHERWISE...GUSTY SW WINDS TODAY WITH SCT LOW VFR
CLOUDS UNDER BKN MID LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS.  PROB30 CARRIES OVER FROM
PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  WOULD NOTE CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION/TIMING IS LOW ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR AS CAM GUID FAVORS
LOW COVERAGE YET 06Z NAM REMAINS ROBUST.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES ALONG WITH RISING MID/HIGH LEVEL
CIGS.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND IFR TO HEADLINE THIS TAF
CYCLE.  INITIALIZED ALL SC TAFS MVFR WITH AN IFR SCT DECK ASSOCIATED
WITH STRATUS ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...WHICH SHOULD ERODE WITHIN THE
FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE FCST CYCLE.  OTHERWISE...AS STATED ABOVE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRENCE/TIMING IS MODEST AT BEST AS IT
PERTAINS TO ANY SITES OUTSIDE OF KAVL THIS MORNING THEREFORE ONLY
VCSH WAS MENTIONED...NO WX ELSEWHERE.  AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON PROB30S
ARE FEATURED AT THE SC SITES WHILE KAVL/KHKY HAVE PREVAILING SHRA
WITH VCTS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SW AT THE SC SITES
AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER FURTHER NORTH OVER THE NC SITES.

OUTLOOK...THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST.  THIS DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA...AND ALSO EACH MORNING WHERE PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   62%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KHKY       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-058-
     059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 050736
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ATOP THE
TN VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO DEEP SW FLOW THROUGH THE PROFILE
OVER NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
BENEATH REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JETMAX ALONG WITH A SERIES OF
VORT IMPULSES WRAPPING AROUND THE H5 LOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WEAK
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.  A
STRONGER IMPULSE IS PROGGED BY GUIDANCE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF AROUND DAYBREAK LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS EASTCENTRAL GA.  ALTHOUGH WEAK...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH MID MORNING AHEAD OF SAID ACTIVITY YIELDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...THE OLD STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD INTO SW VA WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR BEST SFC
CONVERGENCE AND THUS RESIDUAL MODEL QPF TODAY.  THAT SAID...CANNOT
RULE OUT CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT OVER THE
MTNS THANKS TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW AND ANY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
FROM MODEST SSW LLJ.  THE FCST FEATURES NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GA/NC HIGH TERRAIN THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON.  POPS ARE TAPERED DOWN A BIT OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
WHERE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS LEVELS ARE FAVORED.  ALL SAID...AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL IMPULSE/CONVECTION THIS MORNING THERE SHOULD
BE A LULL BEFORE ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY.  EVEN
THEN...MODELS FAVOR RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY PROFILES THUS WOULD BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN GARDEN VARIETY TSRA WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER CELLS BEING SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE
BEST HEATING IS LIKELY.  POPS WILL TAPER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS EJECTING NORTHEAST.  WITH
THAT...THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH
EXPIRATION AT 00Z MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL AMIDST PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT NEWD MONDAY
AS A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS. AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTN THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS DEPICTIONS OF THE FEATURE.
GFS MORE QUICKLY BRINGS IN SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SO FAR AS TO HAVE
RESOLVED A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTN. THE
NAM FEATURES MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY...SUGGESTING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW THE BETTER FORCING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
BALANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE INSTABILITY LATE. POPS REFLECT
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE...WITH MENTIONABLE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
MRNG...AND A PEAK EARLIER THAN THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. PWAT VALUES
WILL TAKE A HIT AS DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT
OTHERWISE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION VECTORS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A CATEGORY OR SO BUT REMAIN
BELOW CLIMO.

COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH MON EVENING...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SERN
STATES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACRS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WARRANTS A
LOW MTN POP OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TUE MRNG.

BY TUE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE REGAINED FOOTING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CWFA...THOUGH HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY TUE NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM
LOW MOVES EAST. SO DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
TUE POPS...CHANCES ENDING UP CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY JULY. PROFILES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE FLOW WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ALLOWING SHEAR PARAMETERS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLY SMALL
VALUES. PULSE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL RETURN AS
OUR MAIN CONCERN. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND NORMAL. WED NIGHT LOW
POPS WERE MAINTAINED NEAR THE TENN BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
SINKING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS ON WED AND THURS WILL BE
ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH A BROAD 591 HEIGHT CLOSED OFF ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGION. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THIS PATTERN
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A CLOSED 594 HEIGHT. THIS 500MB PATTERN
CENTER WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY MS AND LA ON THE GFS AND OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON THE ECMWF. MOST OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT THE NC MTNS AS THE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
IMPULSES ACROSS KY AND VA. THE TREND IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FROM WED THROUGH FRI...THEN MAY GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
WEST AS A DIP IN THE HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE CAROLINAS...THAT WOULD
TEND TO LOWER OUR TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MID MORNING
SHRA...AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS UNDER SCT MID TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS.  A 3HR TEMPO WAS ADDED FROM
11Z-14Z AS LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHRA RIDING UP THE I85
CORRIDOR AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...GUSTY SW WINDS
TODAY WITH SCT LOW VFR CLOUDS UNDER BKN HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS.
PROB30 CARRIES OVER FROM PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES ALONG WITH RISING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS.

ELSEWHERE...HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES THAN THAT OF KCLT ABOVE...HOWEVER
TRENDS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH SOME DETERIORATION FCST AT KAVL AS
CURRENT PRECIP SLIDES NORTHEAST OVER THE AIRFIELD WITHIN AN HOUR OR
SO.  OTHERWISE...TRIED TO TIME PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING PER LATEST
CAMS AT ALL AIRFIELDS...HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.  FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE HIGHEST OVER WESTERN NC ADJACENT TO
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...THUS KAVL/KHKY HAVE PREVAILING SHRA WITH
VCTS WHILE THE REMAINING SITES FEATURE VCSH WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA.

OUTLOOK...THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST.  THIS DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA...AND ALSO EACH MORNING WHERE PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   70%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  96%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-058-
     059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 050736
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ATOP THE
TN VALLEY THIS MORNING LEADING TO DEEP SW FLOW THROUGH THE PROFILE
OVER NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
BENEATH REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF H250 JETMAX ALONG WITH A SERIES OF
VORT IMPULSES WRAPPING AROUND THE H5 LOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WEAK
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.  A
STRONGER IMPULSE IS PROGGED BY GUIDANCE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF AROUND DAYBREAK LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS EASTCENTRAL GA.  ALTHOUGH WEAK...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH MID MORNING AHEAD OF SAID ACTIVITY YIELDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...THE OLD STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD INTO SW VA WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR BEST SFC
CONVERGENCE AND THUS RESIDUAL MODEL QPF TODAY.  THAT SAID...CANNOT
RULE OUT CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT OVER THE
MTNS THANKS TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW AND ANY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
FROM MODEST SSW LLJ.  THE FCST FEATURES NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GA/NC HIGH TERRAIN THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON.  POPS ARE TAPERED DOWN A BIT OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
WHERE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS LEVELS ARE FAVORED.  ALL SAID...AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL IMPULSE/CONVECTION THIS MORNING THERE SHOULD
BE A LULL BEFORE ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY.  EVEN
THEN...MODELS FAVOR RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY PROFILES THUS WOULD BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN GARDEN VARIETY TSRA WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER CELLS BEING SOUTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE
BEST HEATING IS LIKELY.  POPS WILL TAPER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS EJECTING NORTHEAST.  WITH
THAT...THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH
EXPIRATION AT 00Z MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL AMIDST PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT NEWD MONDAY
AS A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE ACRS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS. AT LEAST THRU EARLY AFTN THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN POSITION TO
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS DEPICTIONS OF THE FEATURE.
GFS MORE QUICKLY BRINGS IN SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SO FAR AS TO HAVE
RESOLVED A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTN. THE
NAM FEATURES MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS DURING
THE DAY...SUGGESTING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW THE BETTER FORCING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
BALANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE INSTABILITY LATE. POPS REFLECT
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE...WITH MENTIONABLE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
MRNG...AND A PEAK EARLIER THAN THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. PWAT VALUES
WILL TAKE A HIT AS DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT
OTHERWISE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION VECTORS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A CATEGORY OR SO BUT REMAIN
BELOW CLIMO.

COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH MON EVENING...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SERN
STATES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACRS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WARRANTS A
LOW MTN POP OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TUE MRNG.

BY TUE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE REGAINED FOOTING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CWFA...THOUGH HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY TUE NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM
LOW MOVES EAST. SO DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
TUE POPS...CHANCES ENDING UP CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY JULY. PROFILES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE FLOW WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ALLOWING SHEAR PARAMETERS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLY SMALL
VALUES. PULSE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL RETURN AS
OUR MAIN CONCERN. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND NORMAL. WED NIGHT LOW
POPS WERE MAINTAINED NEAR THE TENN BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
SINKING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS ON WED AND THURS WILL BE
ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST WITH A BROAD 591 HEIGHT CLOSED OFF ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGION. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THIS PATTERN
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A CLOSED 594 HEIGHT. THIS 500MB PATTERN
CENTER WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY MS AND LA ON THE GFS AND OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON THE ECMWF. MOST OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT THE NC MTNS AS THE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BRINGS
IMPULSES ACROSS KY AND VA. THE TREND IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL FROM WED THROUGH FRI...THEN MAY GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
WEST AS A DIP IN THE HEIGHTS OCCURS OVER THE CAROLINAS...THAT WOULD
TEND TO LOWER OUR TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MID MORNING
SHRA...AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS UNDER SCT MID TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS.  A 3HR TEMPO WAS ADDED FROM
11Z-14Z AS LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHRA RIDING UP THE I85
CORRIDOR AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...GUSTY SW WINDS
TODAY WITH SCT LOW VFR CLOUDS UNDER BKN HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS.
PROB30 CARRIES OVER FROM PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES ALONG WITH RISING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS.

ELSEWHERE...HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES THAN THAT OF KCLT ABOVE...HOWEVER
TRENDS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH SOME DETERIORATION FCST AT KAVL AS
CURRENT PRECIP SLIDES NORTHEAST OVER THE AIRFIELD WITHIN AN HOUR OR
SO.  OTHERWISE...TRIED TO TIME PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING PER LATEST
CAMS AT ALL AIRFIELDS...HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.  FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE HIGHEST OVER WESTERN NC ADJACENT TO
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...THUS KAVL/KHKY HAVE PREVAILING SHRA WITH
VCTS WHILE THE REMAINING SITES FEATURE VCSH WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA.

OUTLOOK...THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST.  THIS DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA...AND ALSO EACH MORNING WHERE PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   70%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  96%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-058-
     059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 050534
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
134 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT SUNDAY...FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO SLIDE
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NC AT THIS TIME.  RATES HAVENT BEEN ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS BEST THERMO FORCING
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EVIDENT ON LATEST SPC MUCAPE PLOTS.
TWEAKED POPS OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
COVERAGE AND CAMPOP TRENDS.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL THEREFORE NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE/NEEDED IN THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR TERM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM EDT...NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
STABLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ABUNDANT MID CLOUDS WITH PATCHY LIGHT
SHRA FALLING INTERMITTENTLY. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A FEW BREAKS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND THE ERN FRINGE HOLD OUT SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO REDEVELOP
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. OTHERWISE...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS TN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INTERMITTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THIS
UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JETLET WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST WEST OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH THE JETLET LOOKS A BIT
WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS DRAPED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH A
LINGERING SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH IN THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. GIVEN ALL OF THESE VARIOUS FORCING
MECHANISMS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WSW UPSLOPE INTO THE SW MTNS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MAKING A COMEBACK FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAN ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA...A FAIRLY SHARP W TO E GRADIENT WILL BE FEATURED ON
POPS...WITH THE SW MOUNTAINS THE CLEAR FOCUS FOR ANY HIGHER END
UPSLOPE QPF. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT PRESENT TO THE FFA. WILL
CONTINUE A SMALLER THAN CLIMO RANGE ON MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORY
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MARKED CHANGE TO THE
THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTER OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA...FROM
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS...TO MUCH MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...THE HYDRO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LOCAL SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED. BY TUESDAY...A RETURN
TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CYCLE IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE PULSE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND BY THURSDAY AN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH WITH SURFACE
REFLECTION INTRUDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONT. THE GFS IS
MORE BULLISH ON THE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGH...AND
THEREFORE ACTS TO SOMEWHAT BLOCK  THE APPROACHING FRONT AND KEEP
MAIN IMPACTS FROM A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS/IMPULSES FARTHER TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWFA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO THE TRACK REMAINS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE/LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS AGAIN
DIVERGE ON BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE FASTER/WEAKER GFS AND SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF AS NO
PARTICULAR SOLUTION STANDS OUT AS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. POPS
WERE THEREFORE ELEVATED FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEND
ITSELF TO MORE OF A GULF FETCH...KEEPING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ABUNDANT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING
COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY FOR MID-SUMMER WILL
LEND ITSELF TO MAINLY DIURNAL POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ENHANCE THE DIURNAL POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MID MORNING
SHRA...AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS UNDER SCT MID TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS.  A 3HR TEMPO WAS ADDED FROM
11Z-14Z AS LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHRA RIDING UP THE I85
CORRIDOR AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...GUSTY SW WINDS
TODAY WITH SCT LOW VFR CLOUDS UNDER BKN HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS.
PROB30 CARRIES OVER FROM PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES ALONG WITH RISING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS.

ELSEWHERE...HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES THAN THAT OF KCLT ABOVE...HOWEVER
TRENDS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH SOME DETERIORATION FCST AT KAVL AS
CURRENT PRECIP SLIDES NORTHEAST OVER THE AIRFIELD WITHIN AN HOUR OR
SO.  OTHERWISE...TRIED TO TIME PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING PER LATEST
CAMS AT ALL AIRFIELDS...HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.  FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE HIGHEST OVER WESTERN NC ADJACENT TO
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...THUS KAVL/KHKY HAVE PREVAILING SHRA WITH
VCTS WHILE THE REMAINING SITES FEATURE VCSH WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA.

OUTLOOK...THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST.  THIS DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA...AND ALSO EACH MORNING WHERE PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   57%     MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-058-
     059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/CSH/HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 050534
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
134 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO MONDAY...THEN WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT SUNDAY...FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO SLIDE
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NC AT THIS TIME.  RATES HAVENT BEEN ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS BEST THERMO FORCING
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EVIDENT ON LATEST SPC MUCAPE PLOTS.
TWEAKED POPS OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FCST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
COVERAGE AND CAMPOP TRENDS.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL THEREFORE NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE/NEEDED IN THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR TERM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM EDT...NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
STABLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ABUNDANT MID CLOUDS WITH PATCHY LIGHT
SHRA FALLING INTERMITTENTLY. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A FEW BREAKS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND THE ERN FRINGE HOLD OUT SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO REDEVELOP
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. OTHERWISE...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS TN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INTERMITTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THIS
UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JETLET WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST WEST OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH THE JETLET LOOKS A BIT
WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS DRAPED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH A
LINGERING SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH IN THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. GIVEN ALL OF THESE VARIOUS FORCING
MECHANISMS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WSW UPSLOPE INTO THE SW MTNS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MAKING A COMEBACK FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAN ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA...A FAIRLY SHARP W TO E GRADIENT WILL BE FEATURED ON
POPS...WITH THE SW MOUNTAINS THE CLEAR FOCUS FOR ANY HIGHER END
UPSLOPE QPF. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT PRESENT TO THE FFA. WILL
CONTINUE A SMALLER THAN CLIMO RANGE ON MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORY
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MARKED CHANGE TO THE
THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTER OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA...FROM
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS...TO MUCH MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...THE HYDRO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LOCAL SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED. BY TUESDAY...A RETURN
TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CYCLE IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE PULSE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND BY THURSDAY AN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH WITH SURFACE
REFLECTION INTRUDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONT. THE GFS IS
MORE BULLISH ON THE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGH...AND
THEREFORE ACTS TO SOMEWHAT BLOCK  THE APPROACHING FRONT AND KEEP
MAIN IMPACTS FROM A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS/IMPULSES FARTHER TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWFA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO THE TRACK REMAINS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE/LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS AGAIN
DIVERGE ON BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE FASTER/WEAKER GFS AND SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF AS NO
PARTICULAR SOLUTION STANDS OUT AS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. POPS
WERE THEREFORE ELEVATED FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEND
ITSELF TO MORE OF A GULF FETCH...KEEPING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ABUNDANT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING
COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY FOR MID-SUMMER WILL
LEND ITSELF TO MAINLY DIURNAL POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ENHANCE THE DIURNAL POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MID MORNING
SHRA...AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS UNDER SCT MID TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS.  A 3HR TEMPO WAS ADDED FROM
11Z-14Z AS LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHRA RIDING UP THE I85
CORRIDOR AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...GUSTY SW WINDS
TODAY WITH SCT LOW VFR CLOUDS UNDER BKN HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS.
PROB30 CARRIES OVER FROM PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES ALONG WITH RISING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS.

ELSEWHERE...HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES THAN THAT OF KCLT ABOVE...HOWEVER
TRENDS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH SOME DETERIORATION FCST AT KAVL AS
CURRENT PRECIP SLIDES NORTHEAST OVER THE AIRFIELD WITHIN AN HOUR OR
SO.  OTHERWISE...TRIED TO TIME PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING PER LATEST
CAMS AT ALL AIRFIELDS...HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.  FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE HIGHEST OVER WESTERN NC ADJACENT TO
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...THUS KAVL/KHKY HAVE PREVAILING SHRA WITH
VCTS WHILE THE REMAINING SITES FEATURE VCSH WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA.

OUTLOOK...THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST.  THIS DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA...AND ALSO EACH MORNING WHERE PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE OCCURRED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   57%     MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-058-
     059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CDG/CSH/HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 050130
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
930 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TO
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
920 PM EDT UPDATE...IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING S/WV ENERGY...UPPER
JETLET CIRCULATIONS AND BACKING LLVL FLOW...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE
MORE ROBUST STORMS AND THERE IS THE ONGOING THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WHERE FFG/S ARE LOWEST ACRS THE EXISTING
FFA.

500 PM EDT UPDATE...REGIONALLY...THE CWFA IS IN A SBCAPE MINIMA...
GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ACRS WESTERN NC...INITIATED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HTG AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HTG LATER THIS EVENING.

AS OF 215 PM EDT...NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
STABLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ABUNDANT MID CLOUDS WITH PATCHY LIGHT
SHRA FALLING INTERMITTENTLY. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A FEW BREAKS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND THE ERN FRINGE HOLD OUT SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO REDEVELOP
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. OTHERWISE...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS TN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INTERMITTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THIS
UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JETLET WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST WEST OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH THE JETLET LOOKS A BIT
WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS DRAPED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH A
LINGERING SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH IN THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. GIVEN ALL OF THESE VARIOUS FORCING
MECHANISMS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WSW UPSLOPE INTO THE SW MTNS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MAKING A COMEBACK FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAN ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA...A FAIRLY SHARP W TO E GRADIENT WILL BE FEATURED ON
POPS...WITH THE SW MOUNTAINS THE CLEAR FOCUS FOR ANY HIGHER END
UPSLOPE QPF. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT PRESENT TO THE FFA. WILL
CONTINUE A SMALLER THAN CLIMO RANGE ON MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORY
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MARKED CHANGE TO THE
THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTER OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA...FROM
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS...TO MUCH MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...THE HYDRO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LOCAL SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED. BY TUESDAY...A RETURN
TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CYCLE IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE PULSE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND BY THURSDAY AN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH WITH SURFACE
REFLECTION INTRUDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONT. THE GFS IS
MORE BULLISH ON THE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGH...AND
THEREFORE ACTS TO SOMEWHAT BLOCK  THE APPROACHING FRONT AND KEEP
MAIN IMPACTS FROM A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS/IMPULSES FARTHER TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWFA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO THE TRACK REMAINS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE/LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS AGAIN
DIVERGE ON BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE FASTER/WEAKER GFS AND SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF AS NO
PARTICULAR SOLUTION STANDS OUT AS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. POPS
WERE THEREFORE ELEVATED FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEND
ITSELF TO MORE OF A GULF FETCH...KEEPING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ABUNDANT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING
COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY FOR MID-SUMMER WILL
LEND ITSELF TO MAINLY DIURNAL POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ENHANCE THE DIURNAL POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...LINGERING SHOWERS ACRS THE NC PIEDMONT WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH MID-EVENING. WSW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TO SOME DEGREE
AGAIN TONIGHT...ALLEVIATING ANY VSBY CONCERNS ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT MVFR CLOUDS AND SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT. FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...SW WINDS COULD
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN...AND THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE FOR LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE...LINGERING SHOWERS...WHICH HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO WESTERN
NC...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID-EVENING. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND A MENTION FOR UPSTATE TAFS/KAVL AND KHKY WILL BE CONTINUED.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE PATTERN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE DIURNAL
TIMING AND COVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
IN THE AREA...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ALSO AROUND DAYBREAK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     LOW   48%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-
     058-059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CSH/HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CSH/HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 050130
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
930 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TO
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
920 PM EDT UPDATE...IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING S/WV ENERGY...UPPER
JETLET CIRCULATIONS AND BACKING LLVL FLOW...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE
MORE ROBUST STORMS AND THERE IS THE ONGOING THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WHERE FFG/S ARE LOWEST ACRS THE EXISTING
FFA.

500 PM EDT UPDATE...REGIONALLY...THE CWFA IS IN A SBCAPE MINIMA...
GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ACRS WESTERN NC...INITIATED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HTG AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HTG LATER THIS EVENING.

AS OF 215 PM EDT...NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
STABLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ABUNDANT MID CLOUDS WITH PATCHY LIGHT
SHRA FALLING INTERMITTENTLY. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A FEW BREAKS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND THE ERN FRINGE HOLD OUT SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO REDEVELOP
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. OTHERWISE...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS TN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INTERMITTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THIS
UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JETLET WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST WEST OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH THE JETLET LOOKS A BIT
WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS DRAPED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH A
LINGERING SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH IN THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. GIVEN ALL OF THESE VARIOUS FORCING
MECHANISMS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WSW UPSLOPE INTO THE SW MTNS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MAKING A COMEBACK FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAN ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA...A FAIRLY SHARP W TO E GRADIENT WILL BE FEATURED ON
POPS...WITH THE SW MOUNTAINS THE CLEAR FOCUS FOR ANY HIGHER END
UPSLOPE QPF. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT PRESENT TO THE FFA. WILL
CONTINUE A SMALLER THAN CLIMO RANGE ON MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORY
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MARKED CHANGE TO THE
THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTER OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA...FROM
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS...TO MUCH MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...THE HYDRO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LOCAL SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED. BY TUESDAY...A RETURN
TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CYCLE IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE PULSE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND BY THURSDAY AN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH WITH SURFACE
REFLECTION INTRUDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONT. THE GFS IS
MORE BULLISH ON THE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGH...AND
THEREFORE ACTS TO SOMEWHAT BLOCK  THE APPROACHING FRONT AND KEEP
MAIN IMPACTS FROM A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS/IMPULSES FARTHER TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWFA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO THE TRACK REMAINS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE/LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS AGAIN
DIVERGE ON BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE FASTER/WEAKER GFS AND SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF AS NO
PARTICULAR SOLUTION STANDS OUT AS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. POPS
WERE THEREFORE ELEVATED FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEND
ITSELF TO MORE OF A GULF FETCH...KEEPING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ABUNDANT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING
COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY FOR MID-SUMMER WILL
LEND ITSELF TO MAINLY DIURNAL POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ENHANCE THE DIURNAL POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...LINGERING SHOWERS ACRS THE NC PIEDMONT WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH MID-EVENING. WSW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TO SOME DEGREE
AGAIN TONIGHT...ALLEVIATING ANY VSBY CONCERNS ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT MVFR CLOUDS AND SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT. FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...SW WINDS COULD
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN...AND THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE FOR LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE...LINGERING SHOWERS...WHICH HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO WESTERN
NC...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID-EVENING. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND A MENTION FOR UPSTATE TAFS/KAVL AND KHKY WILL BE CONTINUED.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE PATTERN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE DIURNAL
TIMING AND COVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
IN THE AREA...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ALSO AROUND DAYBREAK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     LOW   48%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-
     058-059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CSH/HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CSH/HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 050130
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
930 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TO
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
920 PM EDT UPDATE...IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING S/WV ENERGY...UPPER
JETLET CIRCULATIONS AND BACKING LLVL FLOW...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE
MORE ROBUST STORMS AND THERE IS THE ONGOING THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WHERE FFG/S ARE LOWEST ACRS THE EXISTING
FFA.

500 PM EDT UPDATE...REGIONALLY...THE CWFA IS IN A SBCAPE MINIMA...
GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ACRS WESTERN NC...INITIATED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HTG AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HTG LATER THIS EVENING.

AS OF 215 PM EDT...NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
STABLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ABUNDANT MID CLOUDS WITH PATCHY LIGHT
SHRA FALLING INTERMITTENTLY. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A FEW BREAKS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND THE ERN FRINGE HOLD OUT SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO REDEVELOP
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. OTHERWISE...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS TN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INTERMITTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THIS
UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JETLET WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST WEST OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH THE JETLET LOOKS A BIT
WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS DRAPED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH A
LINGERING SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH IN THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. GIVEN ALL OF THESE VARIOUS FORCING
MECHANISMS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WSW UPSLOPE INTO THE SW MTNS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MAKING A COMEBACK FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAN ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA...A FAIRLY SHARP W TO E GRADIENT WILL BE FEATURED ON
POPS...WITH THE SW MOUNTAINS THE CLEAR FOCUS FOR ANY HIGHER END
UPSLOPE QPF. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT PRESENT TO THE FFA. WILL
CONTINUE A SMALLER THAN CLIMO RANGE ON MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORY
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MARKED CHANGE TO THE
THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTER OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA...FROM
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS...TO MUCH MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...THE HYDRO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LOCAL SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED. BY TUESDAY...A RETURN
TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CYCLE IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE PULSE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND BY THURSDAY AN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH WITH SURFACE
REFLECTION INTRUDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONT. THE GFS IS
MORE BULLISH ON THE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGH...AND
THEREFORE ACTS TO SOMEWHAT BLOCK  THE APPROACHING FRONT AND KEEP
MAIN IMPACTS FROM A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS/IMPULSES FARTHER TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWFA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO THE TRACK REMAINS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE/LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS AGAIN
DIVERGE ON BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE FASTER/WEAKER GFS AND SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF AS NO
PARTICULAR SOLUTION STANDS OUT AS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. POPS
WERE THEREFORE ELEVATED FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEND
ITSELF TO MORE OF A GULF FETCH...KEEPING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ABUNDANT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING
COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY FOR MID-SUMMER WILL
LEND ITSELF TO MAINLY DIURNAL POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ENHANCE THE DIURNAL POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...LINGERING SHOWERS ACRS THE NC PIEDMONT WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH MID-EVENING. WSW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TO SOME DEGREE
AGAIN TONIGHT...ALLEVIATING ANY VSBY CONCERNS ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT MVFR CLOUDS AND SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT. FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...SW WINDS COULD
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN...AND THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE FOR LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE...LINGERING SHOWERS...WHICH HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO WESTERN
NC...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID-EVENING. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND A MENTION FOR UPSTATE TAFS/KAVL AND KHKY WILL BE CONTINUED.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE PATTERN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE DIURNAL
TIMING AND COVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
IN THE AREA...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ALSO AROUND DAYBREAK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     LOW   48%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-
     058-059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CSH/HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CSH/HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 050130
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
930 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TO
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
920 PM EDT UPDATE...IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING S/WV ENERGY...UPPER
JETLET CIRCULATIONS AND BACKING LLVL FLOW...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE
MORE ROBUST STORMS AND THERE IS THE ONGOING THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WHERE FFG/S ARE LOWEST ACRS THE EXISTING
FFA.

500 PM EDT UPDATE...REGIONALLY...THE CWFA IS IN A SBCAPE MINIMA...
GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ACRS WESTERN NC...INITIATED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HTG AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HTG LATER THIS EVENING.

AS OF 215 PM EDT...NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
STABLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ABUNDANT MID CLOUDS WITH PATCHY LIGHT
SHRA FALLING INTERMITTENTLY. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A FEW BREAKS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND THE ERN FRINGE HOLD OUT SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO REDEVELOP
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. OTHERWISE...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS TN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INTERMITTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THIS
UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JETLET WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST WEST OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH THE JETLET LOOKS A BIT
WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS DRAPED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH A
LINGERING SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH IN THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. GIVEN ALL OF THESE VARIOUS FORCING
MECHANISMS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WSW UPSLOPE INTO THE SW MTNS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MAKING A COMEBACK FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAN ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA...A FAIRLY SHARP W TO E GRADIENT WILL BE FEATURED ON
POPS...WITH THE SW MOUNTAINS THE CLEAR FOCUS FOR ANY HIGHER END
UPSLOPE QPF. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT PRESENT TO THE FFA. WILL
CONTINUE A SMALLER THAN CLIMO RANGE ON MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORY
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MARKED CHANGE TO THE
THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTER OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA...FROM
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS...TO MUCH MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...THE HYDRO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LOCAL SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED. BY TUESDAY...A RETURN
TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CYCLE IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE PULSE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND BY THURSDAY AN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH WITH SURFACE
REFLECTION INTRUDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONT. THE GFS IS
MORE BULLISH ON THE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGH...AND
THEREFORE ACTS TO SOMEWHAT BLOCK  THE APPROACHING FRONT AND KEEP
MAIN IMPACTS FROM A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS/IMPULSES FARTHER TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWFA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO THE TRACK REMAINS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE/LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS AGAIN
DIVERGE ON BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE FASTER/WEAKER GFS AND SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF AS NO
PARTICULAR SOLUTION STANDS OUT AS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. POPS
WERE THEREFORE ELEVATED FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEND
ITSELF TO MORE OF A GULF FETCH...KEEPING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ABUNDANT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING
COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY FOR MID-SUMMER WILL
LEND ITSELF TO MAINLY DIURNAL POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ENHANCE THE DIURNAL POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...LINGERING SHOWERS ACRS THE NC PIEDMONT WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH MID-EVENING. WSW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TO SOME DEGREE
AGAIN TONIGHT...ALLEVIATING ANY VSBY CONCERNS ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT MVFR CLOUDS AND SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT. FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...SW WINDS COULD
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN...AND THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE FOR LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE...LINGERING SHOWERS...WHICH HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO WESTERN
NC...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID-EVENING. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND A MENTION FOR UPSTATE TAFS/KAVL AND KHKY WILL BE CONTINUED.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE PATTERN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE DIURNAL
TIMING AND COVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
IN THE AREA...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ALSO AROUND DAYBREAK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     LOW   48%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-
     058-059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CSH/HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CSH/HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 042319
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
719 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TO
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 PM EDT UPDATE...REGIONALLY...THE CWFA IS IN A SBCAPE
MINIMA... GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ACRS WESTERN
NC...INITIATED BY DIFFERENTIAL HTG AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HTG
LATER THIS EVENING.

AS OF 215 PM EDT...NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
STABLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ABUNDANT MID CLOUDS WITH PATCHY LIGHT
SHRA FALLING INTERMITTENTLY. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A FEW BREAKS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND THE ERN FRINGE HOLD OUT SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO REDEVELOP
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. OTHERWISE...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS TN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INTERMITTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THIS
UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JETLET WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST WEST OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH THE JETLET LOOKS A BIT
WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS DRAPED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH A
LINGERING SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH IN THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. GIVEN ALL OF THESE VARIOUS FORCING
MECHANISMS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WSW UPSLOPE INTO THE SW MTNS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MAKING A COMEBACK FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAN ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA...A FAIRLY SHARP W TO E GRADIENT WILL BE FEATURED ON
POPS...WITH THE SW MOUNTAINS THE CLEAR FOCUS FOR ANY HIGHER END
UPSLOPE QPF. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT PRESENT TO THE FFA. WILL
CONTINUE A SMALLER THAN CLIMO RANGE ON MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORY
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MARKED CHANGE TO THE
THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTER OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA...FROM
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS...TO MUCH MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...THE HYDRO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LOCAL SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED. BY TUESDAY...A RETURN
TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CYCLE IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE PULSE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND BY THURSDAY AN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH WITH SURFACE
REFLECTION INTRUDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONT. THE GFS IS
MORE BULLISH ON THE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGH...AND
THEREFORE ACTS TO SOMEWHAT BLOCK  THE APPROACHING FRONT AND KEEP
MAIN IMPACTS FROM A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS/IMPULSES FARTHER TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWFA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO THE TRACK REMAINS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE/LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS AGAIN
DIVERGE ON BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE FASTER/WEAKER GFS AND SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF AS NO
PARTICULAR SOLUTION STANDS OUT AS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. POPS
WERE THEREFORE ELEVATED FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEND
ITSELF TO MORE OF A GULF FETCH...KEEPING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ABUNDANT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING
COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY FOR MID-SUMMER WILL
LEND ITSELF TO MAINLY DIURNAL POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ENHANCE THE DIURNAL POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...LINGERING SHOWERS ACRS THE NC PIEDMONT WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH MID-EVENING. WSW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TO SOME DEGREE
AGAIN TONIGHT...ALLEVIATING ANY VSBY CONCERNS ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT MVFR CLOUDS AND SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT. FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...SW WINDS COULD
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN...AND THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE FOR LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE...LINGERING SHOWERS...WHICH HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO WESTERN
NC...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID-EVENING. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND A MENTION FOR UPSTATE TAFS/KAVL AND KHKY WILL BE CONTINUED.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE PATTERN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE DIURNAL
TIMING AND COVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
IN THE AREA...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ALSO AROUND DAYBREAK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     MED   61%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-
     058-059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CSH/HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CSH/HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 042319
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
719 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TO
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 PM EDT UPDATE...REGIONALLY...THE CWFA IS IN A SBCAPE
MINIMA... GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ACRS WESTERN
NC...INITIATED BY DIFFERENTIAL HTG AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HTG
LATER THIS EVENING.

AS OF 215 PM EDT...NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
STABLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ABUNDANT MID CLOUDS WITH PATCHY LIGHT
SHRA FALLING INTERMITTENTLY. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A FEW BREAKS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND THE ERN FRINGE HOLD OUT SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO REDEVELOP
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. OTHERWISE...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS TN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INTERMITTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THIS
UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JETLET WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST WEST OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH THE JETLET LOOKS A BIT
WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS DRAPED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH A
LINGERING SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH IN THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. GIVEN ALL OF THESE VARIOUS FORCING
MECHANISMS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WSW UPSLOPE INTO THE SW MTNS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MAKING A COMEBACK FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAN ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA...A FAIRLY SHARP W TO E GRADIENT WILL BE FEATURED ON
POPS...WITH THE SW MOUNTAINS THE CLEAR FOCUS FOR ANY HIGHER END
UPSLOPE QPF. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT PRESENT TO THE FFA. WILL
CONTINUE A SMALLER THAN CLIMO RANGE ON MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORY
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MARKED CHANGE TO THE
THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTER OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA...FROM
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS...TO MUCH MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...THE HYDRO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LOCAL SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED. BY TUESDAY...A RETURN
TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CYCLE IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE PULSE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND BY THURSDAY AN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH WITH SURFACE
REFLECTION INTRUDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONT. THE GFS IS
MORE BULLISH ON THE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGH...AND
THEREFORE ACTS TO SOMEWHAT BLOCK  THE APPROACHING FRONT AND KEEP
MAIN IMPACTS FROM A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS/IMPULSES FARTHER TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWFA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO THE TRACK REMAINS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE/LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS AGAIN
DIVERGE ON BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE FASTER/WEAKER GFS AND SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF AS NO
PARTICULAR SOLUTION STANDS OUT AS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. POPS
WERE THEREFORE ELEVATED FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEND
ITSELF TO MORE OF A GULF FETCH...KEEPING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ABUNDANT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING
COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY FOR MID-SUMMER WILL
LEND ITSELF TO MAINLY DIURNAL POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ENHANCE THE DIURNAL POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...LINGERING SHOWERS ACRS THE NC PIEDMONT WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH MID-EVENING. WSW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP TO SOME DEGREE
AGAIN TONIGHT...ALLEVIATING ANY VSBY CONCERNS ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT MVFR CLOUDS AND SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT. FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...SW WINDS COULD
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN...AND THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE FOR LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE...LINGERING SHOWERS...WHICH HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO WESTERN
NC...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID-EVENING. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND A MENTION FOR UPSTATE TAFS/KAVL AND KHKY WILL BE CONTINUED.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE PATTERN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE DIURNAL
TIMING AND COVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
IN THE AREA...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ALSO AROUND DAYBREAK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     MED   61%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-
     058-059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CSH/HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...CSH/HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 042146
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
546 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TO
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 PM EDT UPDATE...REGIONALLY...THE CWFA IS IN A SCCAPE MINIMA...
GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ACRS WESTERN NC...INITIATED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HTG AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HTG LATER THIS EVENING.

AS OF 215 PM EDT...NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
STABLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ABUNDANT MID CLOUDS WITH PATCHY LIGHT
SHRA FALLING INTERMITTENTLY. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A FEW BREAKS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND THE ERN FRINGE HOLD OUT SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO REDEVELOP
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. OTHERWISE...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS TN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INTERMITTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THIS
UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JETLET WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST WEST OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH THE JETLET LOOKS A BIT
WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS DRAPED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH A
LINGERING SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH IN THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. GIVEN ALL OF THESE VARIOUS FORCING
MECHANISMS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WSW UPSLOPE INTO THE SW MTNS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MAKING A COMEBACK FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAN ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA...A FAIRLY SHARP W TO E GRADIENT WILL BE FEATURED ON
POPS...WITH THE SW MOUNTAINS THE CLEAR FOCUS FOR ANY HIGHER END
UPSLOPE QPF. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT PRESENT TO THE FFA. WILL
CONTINUE A SMALLER THAN CLIMO RANGE ON MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORY
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MARKED CHANGE TO THE
THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTER OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA...FROM
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS...TO MUCH MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...THE HYDRO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LOCAL SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED. BY TUESDAY...A RETURN
TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CYCLE IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE PULSE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND BY THURSDAY AN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH WITH SURFACE
REFLECTION INTRUDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONT. THE GFS IS
MORE BULLISH ON THE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGH...AND
THEREFORE ACTS TO SOMEWHAT BLOCK  THE APPROACHING FRONT AND KEEP
MAIN IMPACTS FROM A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS/IMPULSES FARTHER TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWFA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO THE TRACK REMAINS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE/LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS AGAIN
DIVERGE ON BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE FASTER/WEAKER GFS AND SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF AS NO
PARTICULAR SOLUTION STANDS OUT AS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. POPS
WERE THEREFORE ELEVATED FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEND
ITSELF TO MORE OF A GULF FETCH...KEEPING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ABUNDANT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING
COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY FOR MID-SUMMER WILL
LEND ITSELF TO MAINLY DIURNAL POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ENHANCE THE DIURNAL POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHRA HAVE KEPT THE PIEDMONT FAIRLY
STABLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY INTERMITTENT -SHRA EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT
BACK TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS UP WEST OF THE MTN CHAIN. WILL ONCE AGAIN HINT AT FEW TO
SCT LOW STRATUS BUT NONE OF THE MODEL PROFILES OR MOS HAVE ANY CIG
RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT OCNL SW GUSTS TO
CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING...WITH STEADIER SW FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT
THEREAFTER.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL STEADILY INCREASE IN THE MTNS AS
HEIGHTS FALL TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT COVERAGE REMAINS
MORE UNCERTAIN OVER THE FOOTHILLS WHERE PROFILES ARE FAIRLY STABLE.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...WITH TEMPO MVFR UNDER ANY SHRA
AT KAVL. LOWER CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT MORE CERTAIN AT KAVL WHERE MORE QPF IS EXPECTED. WILL
JUST HINT AT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT THE FOOTHILL SITES. SW WINDS
WILL GUST AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTN BEFORE SETTLING
DOWN TO STEADY SW LESS THAN 10 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE UP THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MAINLY VCSH AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...AND MORE SOLID
SHRA WITH VCTS AT KAVL AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE PATTERN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE DIURNAL
TIMING AND COVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
IN THE AREA...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ALSO AROUND DAYBREAK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  85%     MED   61%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-
     058-059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CSH/HG
SHORT TERM...JDL/WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 042146
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
546 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY...PROVIDING LIFT AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TO
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 PM EDT UPDATE...REGIONALLY...THE CWFA IS IN A SCCAPE MINIMA...
GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ACRS WESTERN NC...INITIATED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HTG AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HTG LATER THIS EVENING.

AS OF 215 PM EDT...NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
STABLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ABUNDANT MID CLOUDS WITH PATCHY LIGHT
SHRA FALLING INTERMITTENTLY. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A FEW BREAKS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND THE ERN FRINGE HOLD OUT SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO REDEVELOP
IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. OTHERWISE...500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS TN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INTERMITTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THIS
UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JETLET WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST WEST OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH THE JETLET LOOKS A BIT
WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS DRAPED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...WITH A
LINGERING SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH IN THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. GIVEN ALL OF THESE VARIOUS FORCING
MECHANISMS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WSW UPSLOPE INTO THE SW MTNS...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THE
AREA...ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MAKING A COMEBACK FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAN ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA...A FAIRLY SHARP W TO E GRADIENT WILL BE FEATURED ON
POPS...WITH THE SW MOUNTAINS THE CLEAR FOCUS FOR ANY HIGHER END
UPSLOPE QPF. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT PRESENT TO THE FFA. WILL
CONTINUE A SMALLER THAN CLIMO RANGE ON MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORY
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MARKED CHANGE TO THE
THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTER OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA...FROM
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS...TO MUCH MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...THE HYDRO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LOCAL SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED. BY TUESDAY...A RETURN
TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CYCLE IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE PULSE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND BY THURSDAY AN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH WITH SURFACE
REFLECTION INTRUDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONT. THE GFS IS
MORE BULLISH ON THE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGH...AND
THEREFORE ACTS TO SOMEWHAT BLOCK  THE APPROACHING FRONT AND KEEP
MAIN IMPACTS FROM A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS/IMPULSES FARTHER TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWFA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO THE TRACK REMAINS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE/LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS AGAIN
DIVERGE ON BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE FASTER/WEAKER GFS AND SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF AS NO
PARTICULAR SOLUTION STANDS OUT AS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. POPS
WERE THEREFORE ELEVATED FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEND
ITSELF TO MORE OF A GULF FETCH...KEEPING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ABUNDANT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING
COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY FOR MID-SUMMER WILL
LEND ITSELF TO MAINLY DIURNAL POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ENHANCE THE DIURNAL POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHRA HAVE KEPT THE PIEDMONT FAIRLY
STABLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY INTERMITTENT -SHRA EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT
BACK TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS UP WEST OF THE MTN CHAIN. WILL ONCE AGAIN HINT AT FEW TO
SCT LOW STRATUS BUT NONE OF THE MODEL PROFILES OR MOS HAVE ANY CIG
RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT OCNL SW GUSTS TO
CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING...WITH STEADIER SW FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT
THEREAFTER.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL STEADILY INCREASE IN THE MTNS AS
HEIGHTS FALL TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT COVERAGE REMAINS
MORE UNCERTAIN OVER THE FOOTHILLS WHERE PROFILES ARE FAIRLY STABLE.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...WITH TEMPO MVFR UNDER ANY SHRA
AT KAVL. LOWER CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT MORE CERTAIN AT KAVL WHERE MORE QPF IS EXPECTED. WILL
JUST HINT AT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT THE FOOTHILL SITES. SW WINDS
WILL GUST AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTN BEFORE SETTLING
DOWN TO STEADY SW LESS THAN 10 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE UP THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MAINLY VCSH AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...AND MORE SOLID
SHRA WITH VCTS AT KAVL AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE PATTERN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE DIURNAL
TIMING AND COVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
IN THE AREA...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ALSO AROUND DAYBREAK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  85%     MED   61%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ048-051-052-
     058-059-062-063.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...CSH/HG
SHORT TERM...JDL/WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...HG





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities