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000
FXUS62 KGSP 270200
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED...NOW EFFECTIVELY BEING DISCRETE CELLS LINED UP ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL. IF NOTHING ELSE IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRUCTURE WILL HOLD UP ENOUGH TO BRING ISOLATED DOWNPOURS TO MOST OF
THE YET UNTOUCHED PART OF THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...INCLUDING THE CHARLOTTE METRO. GUSTS HAVE BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS WIDESPREAD. 00Z RAOB FROM ATLANTA WAS TAKEN IN THE WAKE OF THE
LINE AND REFLECTED A STABLE AIRMASS. LATEST RAP PROGS SUGGEST LITTLE
TO NO REBOUND WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT DESPITE MOIST ADVECTION IN THE
CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO NEW POPS REFLECT THE DEPARTURE OF THE
PRESENT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING AND JUST CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL STILL SEE THE UPPER
DYNAMIC FEATURES MOVE ACROSS POTENTIALLY KICKING OFF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT HIGH IMPACT STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HISTORY.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL MAXIMIZE AT NEARLY 1.75 INCHES OVER THE HEART OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WRN GA THIS AFTN AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION WORKS EAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION AROUND 22Z AND THEN
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
A WEAK H5 VORITICITY LOBE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LOBE OF BRIEFLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR...AND
ANY OUTFLOW PUSH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION...COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS INTO FAR SW SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH ANY
STRONG TSRA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM
MIN TEMPS AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS FORMS IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER.

ALTHOUGH THE H5 PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WED...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING. HEATING WILL
GET OFF TO A SLOW START AGAIN ON WED WITH THE ABUNDANT MORNING
CLOUDS...BUT SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER BY WED
AFTN WITH ANY BREAKS GIVEN THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. ANTICIPATE HIGH
SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ON
WED AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S AGAIN TO MAX
OUT NEAR 80 EAST OF THE MTNS...LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN USA...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND GA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. WITH A LACK OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER MODEST...AND GREATEST
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
TREND DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL VERY SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN....WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY PROGRESSES...SUCH THAT BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TOT HE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WHILE MODEST GULF
INFLOW EXISTS OVER THE GULF STATES...AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON SUNDAY...
WHILE THE APPROACHING FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC IMPROVES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N AND W.

WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH TIME. MOIST
INFLOW NEVER REALLY GETS ROBUST...SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE ON A GRAND SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...TSRA MOVING THRU NW SC AND SW NC AT 00Z ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER IN SOME FORM AND AFFECT THE FIELD LATE IN THE EVENING.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLIER TSRA WILL AFFECT THE
FIELD...SO WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. THE STORMS ARE
ENTERING A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS SO THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG WHEN THEY ARRIVE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER SHORTWAVES OR MCV/S DRIFT OVERHEAD. THOUGH LAMP
CIGS HAVE NOT VERIFIED WELL LATELY...TONIGHT RAINFALL WILL HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WAS NOT THERE PREVIOUSLY. SO ITS
IFR FCST HAS BEEN FAVORED FOR THE MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW IN
THE MORNING...ENOUGH SO THEY HAVE BEEN OMITTED. DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WED AFTN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SCT AT BEST.

ELSEWHERE...INTENSE LINEAR CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE UPSTATE SITES
AND KAVL NOT LONG AFTER THE START OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF IFR TO LIFR
VSBY AND STRONG SWLY WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LINE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN WITH OCNL RUMBLES OF THUNDER THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT PRECIP CHANCES BECOME LOW
ENOUGH TO OMIT...THOUGH REMAIN NONZERO. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES AN HR OR TWO BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS DECK WILL
SLOWLY LIFT THRU THE MRNG BACK TO VFR BY MIDDAY. DESTABILIZATION MAY
BE DELAYED BY THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT LATE IN THE DAY PROB30 CHANCES
RETURN AROUND THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT
LAYS OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORNING STRATUS TO RESULT
EACH DAY...WITH CONTINUED BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH  84%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     MED   60%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     MED   69%     MED   74%     MED   70%
KHKY       HIGH  98%     LOW   58%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  90%     MED   75%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   76%     LOW   45%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 270200
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED...NOW EFFECTIVELY BEING DISCRETE CELLS LINED UP ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL. IF NOTHING ELSE IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRUCTURE WILL HOLD UP ENOUGH TO BRING ISOLATED DOWNPOURS TO MOST OF
THE YET UNTOUCHED PART OF THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...INCLUDING THE CHARLOTTE METRO. GUSTS HAVE BECOME WEAKER AND
LESS WIDESPREAD. 00Z RAOB FROM ATLANTA WAS TAKEN IN THE WAKE OF THE
LINE AND REFLECTED A STABLE AIRMASS. LATEST RAP PROGS SUGGEST LITTLE
TO NO REBOUND WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT DESPITE MOIST ADVECTION IN THE
CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO NEW POPS REFLECT THE DEPARTURE OF THE
PRESENT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING AND JUST CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL STILL SEE THE UPPER
DYNAMIC FEATURES MOVE ACROSS POTENTIALLY KICKING OFF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT HIGH IMPACT STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HISTORY.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL MAXIMIZE AT NEARLY 1.75 INCHES OVER THE HEART OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WRN GA THIS AFTN AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION WORKS EAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION AROUND 22Z AND THEN
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
A WEAK H5 VORITICITY LOBE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LOBE OF BRIEFLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR...AND
ANY OUTFLOW PUSH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION...COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS INTO FAR SW SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH ANY
STRONG TSRA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM
MIN TEMPS AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS FORMS IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER.

ALTHOUGH THE H5 PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WED...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING. HEATING WILL
GET OFF TO A SLOW START AGAIN ON WED WITH THE ABUNDANT MORNING
CLOUDS...BUT SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER BY WED
AFTN WITH ANY BREAKS GIVEN THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. ANTICIPATE HIGH
SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ON
WED AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S AGAIN TO MAX
OUT NEAR 80 EAST OF THE MTNS...LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN USA...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND GA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. WITH A LACK OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER MODEST...AND GREATEST
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
TREND DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL VERY SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN....WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY PROGRESSES...SUCH THAT BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TOT HE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WHILE MODEST GULF
INFLOW EXISTS OVER THE GULF STATES...AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON SUNDAY...
WHILE THE APPROACHING FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC IMPROVES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N AND W.

WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH TIME. MOIST
INFLOW NEVER REALLY GETS ROBUST...SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE ON A GRAND SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...TSRA MOVING THRU NW SC AND SW NC AT 00Z ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER IN SOME FORM AND AFFECT THE FIELD LATE IN THE EVENING.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLIER TSRA WILL AFFECT THE
FIELD...SO WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. THE STORMS ARE
ENTERING A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS SO THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG WHEN THEY ARRIVE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER SHORTWAVES OR MCV/S DRIFT OVERHEAD. THOUGH LAMP
CIGS HAVE NOT VERIFIED WELL LATELY...TONIGHT RAINFALL WILL HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WAS NOT THERE PREVIOUSLY. SO ITS
IFR FCST HAS BEEN FAVORED FOR THE MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW IN
THE MORNING...ENOUGH SO THEY HAVE BEEN OMITTED. DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WED AFTN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SCT AT BEST.

ELSEWHERE...INTENSE LINEAR CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE UPSTATE SITES
AND KAVL NOT LONG AFTER THE START OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF IFR TO LIFR
VSBY AND STRONG SWLY WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LINE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN WITH OCNL RUMBLES OF THUNDER THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT PRECIP CHANCES BECOME LOW
ENOUGH TO OMIT...THOUGH REMAIN NONZERO. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES AN HR OR TWO BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS DECK WILL
SLOWLY LIFT THRU THE MRNG BACK TO VFR BY MIDDAY. DESTABILIZATION MAY
BE DELAYED BY THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT LATE IN THE DAY PROB30 CHANCES
RETURN AROUND THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT
LAYS OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORNING STRATUS TO RESULT
EACH DAY...WITH CONTINUED BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH  84%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     MED   60%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     MED   69%     MED   74%     MED   70%
KHKY       HIGH  98%     LOW   58%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  90%     MED   75%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   76%     LOW   45%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 262355
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...LEWP FEATURE NOW ENTERING THE GREENVILLE METRO AREA.
WHEN THIS LINE HIT KAND AIRPORT HEAD-ON IT PRODUCED A 49 KT GUST AND
HAS A HISTORY OF DAMAGE ELSEWHERE. NO LONGER SURE THAT THERE IS
SUFFICIENTLY STABLE AIR OVER OUR AREA TO PREVENT IT FROM HOLDING
TOGETHER AS IT MARCHES NEWD AT AROUND 45 MPH. SHEAR MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES FURTHER FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHTER
HEIGHT GRADIENT ASSOC WITH THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE...BUT WILL STILL
PROBABLY HAVE ENOUGH TO REMAIN ORGANIZED. THE CURRENT STORM
STRUCTURE IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR ON LATEST HRRR BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CUES
IMPLY IT IS LIKELY TO SURVIVE FOR SOME TIME.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL MAXIMIZE AT NEARLY 1.75 INCHES OVER THE HEART OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WRN GA THIS AFTN AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION WORKS EAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION AROUND 22Z AND THEN
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
A WEAK H5 VORITICITY LOBE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LOBE OF BRIEFLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR...AND
ANY OUTFLOW PUSH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION...COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS INTO FAR SW SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH ANY
STRONG TSRA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM
MIN TEMPS AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS FORMS IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER.

ALTHOUGH THE H5 PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WED...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING. HEATING WILL
GET OFF TO A SLOW START AGAIN ON WED WITH THE ABUNDANT MORNING
CLOUDS...BUT SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER BY WED
AFTN WITH ANY BREAKS GIVEN THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. ANTICIPATE HIGH
SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ON
WED AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S AGAIN TO MAX
OUT NEAR 80 EAST OF THE MTNS...LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN USA...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND GA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. WITH A LACK OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER MODEST...AND GREATEST
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
TREND DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL VERY SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN....WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY PROGRESSES...SUCH THAT BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TOT HE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WHILE MODEST GULF
INFLOW EXISTS OVER THE GULF STATES...AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON SUNDAY...
WHILE THE APPROACHING FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC IMPROVES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N AND W.

WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH TIME. MOIST
INFLOW NEVER REALLY GETS ROBUST...SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE ON A GRAND SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...TSRA MOVING THRU NW SC AND SW NC AT 00Z ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER IN SOME FORM AND AFFECT THE FIELD LATE IN THE EVENING.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLIER TSRA WILL AFFECT THE
FIELD...SO WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. THE STORMS ARE
ENTERING A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS SO THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG WHEN THEY ARRIVE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER SHORTWAVES OR MCV/S DRIFT OVERHEAD. THOUGH LAMP
CIGS HAVE NOT VERIFIED WELL LATELY...TONIGHT RAINFALL WILL HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WAS NOT THERE PREVIOUSLY. SO ITS
IFR FCST HAS BEEN FAVORED FOR THE MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW IN
THE MORNING...ENOUGH SO THEY HAVE BEEN OMITTED. DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WED AFTN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SCT AT BEST.

ELSEWHERE...INTENSE LINEAR CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE UPSTATE SITES
AND KAVL NOT LONG AFTER THE START OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF IFR TO LIFR
VSBY AND STRONG SWLY WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LINE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN WITH OCNL RUMBLES OF THUNDER THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT PRECIP CHANCES BECOME LOW
ENOUGH TO OMIT...THOUGH REMAIN NONZERO. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES AN HR OR TWO BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS DECK WILL
SLOWLY LIFT THRU THE MRNG BACK TO VFR BY MIDDAY. DESTABILIZATION MAY
BE DELAYED BY THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT LATE IN THE DAY PROB30 CHANCES
RETURN AROUND THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT
LAYS OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORNING STRATUS TO RESULT
EACH DAY...WITH CONTINUED BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  98%     HIGH  89%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     MED   65%     MED   71%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     MED   78%     HIGH  80%     MED   72%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     MED   67%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH  93%     MED   70%     MED   76%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  86%     LOW   42%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG/WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 262355
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...LEWP FEATURE NOW ENTERING THE GREENVILLE METRO AREA.
WHEN THIS LINE HIT KAND AIRPORT HEAD-ON IT PRODUCED A 49 KT GUST AND
HAS A HISTORY OF DAMAGE ELSEWHERE. NO LONGER SURE THAT THERE IS
SUFFICIENTLY STABLE AIR OVER OUR AREA TO PREVENT IT FROM HOLDING
TOGETHER AS IT MARCHES NEWD AT AROUND 45 MPH. SHEAR MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES FURTHER FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHTER
HEIGHT GRADIENT ASSOC WITH THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE...BUT WILL STILL
PROBABLY HAVE ENOUGH TO REMAIN ORGANIZED. THE CURRENT STORM
STRUCTURE IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR ON LATEST HRRR BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CUES
IMPLY IT IS LIKELY TO SURVIVE FOR SOME TIME.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL MAXIMIZE AT NEARLY 1.75 INCHES OVER THE HEART OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WRN GA THIS AFTN AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION WORKS EAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION AROUND 22Z AND THEN
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
A WEAK H5 VORITICITY LOBE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LOBE OF BRIEFLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR...AND
ANY OUTFLOW PUSH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION...COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS INTO FAR SW SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH ANY
STRONG TSRA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM
MIN TEMPS AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS FORMS IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER.

ALTHOUGH THE H5 PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WED...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING. HEATING WILL
GET OFF TO A SLOW START AGAIN ON WED WITH THE ABUNDANT MORNING
CLOUDS...BUT SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER BY WED
AFTN WITH ANY BREAKS GIVEN THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. ANTICIPATE HIGH
SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ON
WED AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S AGAIN TO MAX
OUT NEAR 80 EAST OF THE MTNS...LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN USA...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND GA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. WITH A LACK OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER MODEST...AND GREATEST
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
TREND DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL VERY SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN....WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY PROGRESSES...SUCH THAT BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TOT HE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WHILE MODEST GULF
INFLOW EXISTS OVER THE GULF STATES...AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON SUNDAY...
WHILE THE APPROACHING FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC IMPROVES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N AND W.

WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH TIME. MOIST
INFLOW NEVER REALLY GETS ROBUST...SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE ON A GRAND SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...TSRA MOVING THRU NW SC AND SW NC AT 00Z ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD TOGETHER IN SOME FORM AND AFFECT THE FIELD LATE IN THE EVENING.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLIER TSRA WILL AFFECT THE
FIELD...SO WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. THE STORMS ARE
ENTERING A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS SO THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG WHEN THEY ARRIVE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER SHORTWAVES OR MCV/S DRIFT OVERHEAD. THOUGH LAMP
CIGS HAVE NOT VERIFIED WELL LATELY...TONIGHT RAINFALL WILL HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WAS NOT THERE PREVIOUSLY. SO ITS
IFR FCST HAS BEEN FAVORED FOR THE MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW IN
THE MORNING...ENOUGH SO THEY HAVE BEEN OMITTED. DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WED AFTN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SCT AT BEST.

ELSEWHERE...INTENSE LINEAR CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE UPSTATE SITES
AND KAVL NOT LONG AFTER THE START OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF IFR TO LIFR
VSBY AND STRONG SWLY WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LINE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN WITH OCNL RUMBLES OF THUNDER THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT PRECIP CHANCES BECOME LOW
ENOUGH TO OMIT...THOUGH REMAIN NONZERO. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES AN HR OR TWO BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS DECK WILL
SLOWLY LIFT THRU THE MRNG BACK TO VFR BY MIDDAY. DESTABILIZATION MAY
BE DELAYED BY THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT LATE IN THE DAY PROB30 CHANCES
RETURN AROUND THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT
LAYS OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORNING STRATUS TO RESULT
EACH DAY...WITH CONTINUED BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  98%     HIGH  89%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     MED   65%     MED   71%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     MED   78%     HIGH  80%     MED   72%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     MED   67%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH  93%     MED   70%     MED   76%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  86%     LOW   42%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG/WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 262051
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
451 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...THE NORTH END OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER GEORGIA
HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN LIKELY AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR OVER
THE NE GA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER THE SOUTH END OF THAT LINE IS
REORGANIZING ALONG A GUST FRONT OR POSSIBLY SEA BREEZE FRONT.
WHILE THE VORT MAXES ASSOC WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORTWAVE
APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO PASS WEST OF THE MTNS THIS EVENING...MCVS
FROM THESE LINES WILL SWING OVER OUR CWFA. LATEST PROGS STILL
FEATURE INCREASING CAPE VALUES THRU THE EVENING WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT HIGHER ALOFT. REVISED
POPS TO BRING THE NRN LINE IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...AS WELL
AS TO REFLECT BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WRN UPSTATE WITH THIS NEW
SEGMENT ORGANIZING. SOME DISCRETE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO CONTINUE
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINES...BUT FROM THE LOOK OF THE CU
FIELD ON VIS SAT...WHICH DOES NOT LOOK CONGESTED OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT JUST THE UPSTATE AS CELLS DEVELOP
OVER THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS AND MOVE N.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL MAXIMIZE AT NEARLY 1.75 INCHES OVER THE HEART OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WRN GA THIS AFTN AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION WORKS EAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION AROUND 22Z AND THEN
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
A WEAK H5 VORITICITY LOBE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LOBE OF BRIEFLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR...AND
ANY OUTFLOW PUSH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION...COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS INTO FAR SW SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH ANY
STRONG TSRA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM
MIN TEMPS AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS FORMS IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER.

ALTHOUGH THE H5 PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WED...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING. HEATING WILL
GET OFF TO A SLOW START AGAIN ON WED WITH THE ABUNDANT MORNING
CLOUDS...BUT SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER BY WED
AFTN WITH ANY BREAKS GIVEN THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. ANTICIPATE HIGH
SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ON
WED AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S AGAIN TO MAX
OUT NEAR 80 EAST OF THE MTNS...LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN USA...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND GA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. WITH A LACK OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER MODEST...AND GREATEST
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
TREND DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL VERY SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN....WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY PROGRESSES...SUCH THAT BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TOT HE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WHILE MODEST GULF
INFLOW EXISTS OVER THE GULF STATES...AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON SUNDAY...
WHILE THE APPROACHING FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC IMPROVES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N AND W.

WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH TIME. MOIST
INFLOW NEVER REALLY GETS ROBUST...SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE ON A GRAND SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH LATE DAY AS CONVECTIVE
CUMULUS ABOUNDS. THE HRRR SHOWS LINEAR CONVECTION OVER GA THIS AFTN
MAKING A RUN ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AND THREATENING THE KCLT AIRFIELD
BY 02Z. SHRA ARE MORE LIKELY THAN TSRA WITH DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY...BUT THERE APPEARS ENOUGH UPPER FORCING AND LINGERING
MUCAPE TO EXPECT A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED TSRA WITHIN A RAIN SHIELD AS
THE FEATURES MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH A WINDOW OF
DAYBREAK IFR ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER
IN THE VICINITY AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
STEADY S TO SW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

ELSEWHERE...LOWER VFR TO SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AROUND THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FORMING AT 3 TO 4 KFT. THE
HRRR SHOWS THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER GA MAKING A RUN ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE FORECAST THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
ACROSS THE NE PART OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE TIMING...AND THE RELATIVE
CONSISTENCY OF THE HRRR SOLUTIONS...WILL PUSH THE TSRA INTO A TEMPO
GROUP FOR GENERALLY 00Z TO 04Z...A LITTLE SOONER AT KAND...AND WITH
JUST SHRA AT KHKY. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPS...WITH A
PERIOD OF DAYBREAK IFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AIRFIELDS AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILES AND SW FLOW..

OUTLOOK...MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT
LAYS OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORNING STRATUS TO RESULT
EACH DAY...WITH CONTINUED BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     MED   73%     HIGH  82%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG/WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 262051
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
451 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...THE NORTH END OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER GEORGIA
HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN LIKELY AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR OVER
THE NE GA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER THE SOUTH END OF THAT LINE IS
REORGANIZING ALONG A GUST FRONT OR POSSIBLY SEA BREEZE FRONT.
WHILE THE VORT MAXES ASSOC WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORTWAVE
APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO PASS WEST OF THE MTNS THIS EVENING...MCVS
FROM THESE LINES WILL SWING OVER OUR CWFA. LATEST PROGS STILL
FEATURE INCREASING CAPE VALUES THRU THE EVENING WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT HIGHER ALOFT. REVISED
POPS TO BRING THE NRN LINE IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...AS WELL
AS TO REFLECT BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WRN UPSTATE WITH THIS NEW
SEGMENT ORGANIZING. SOME DISCRETE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO CONTINUE
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINES...BUT FROM THE LOOK OF THE CU
FIELD ON VIS SAT...WHICH DOES NOT LOOK CONGESTED OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT JUST THE UPSTATE AS CELLS DEVELOP
OVER THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS AND MOVE N.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL MAXIMIZE AT NEARLY 1.75 INCHES OVER THE HEART OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WRN GA THIS AFTN AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION WORKS EAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION AROUND 22Z AND THEN
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
A WEAK H5 VORITICITY LOBE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LOBE OF BRIEFLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR...AND
ANY OUTFLOW PUSH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION...COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS INTO FAR SW SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH ANY
STRONG TSRA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM
MIN TEMPS AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS FORMS IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER.

ALTHOUGH THE H5 PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WED...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING. HEATING WILL
GET OFF TO A SLOW START AGAIN ON WED WITH THE ABUNDANT MORNING
CLOUDS...BUT SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER BY WED
AFTN WITH ANY BREAKS GIVEN THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. ANTICIPATE HIGH
SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ON
WED AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S AGAIN TO MAX
OUT NEAR 80 EAST OF THE MTNS...LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN USA...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND GA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. WITH A LACK OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER MODEST...AND GREATEST
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
TREND DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL VERY SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN....WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY PROGRESSES...SUCH THAT BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TOT HE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WHILE MODEST GULF
INFLOW EXISTS OVER THE GULF STATES...AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON SUNDAY...
WHILE THE APPROACHING FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC IMPROVES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N AND W.

WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH TIME. MOIST
INFLOW NEVER REALLY GETS ROBUST...SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE ON A GRAND SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH LATE DAY AS CONVECTIVE
CUMULUS ABOUNDS. THE HRRR SHOWS LINEAR CONVECTION OVER GA THIS AFTN
MAKING A RUN ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AND THREATENING THE KCLT AIRFIELD
BY 02Z. SHRA ARE MORE LIKELY THAN TSRA WITH DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY...BUT THERE APPEARS ENOUGH UPPER FORCING AND LINGERING
MUCAPE TO EXPECT A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED TSRA WITHIN A RAIN SHIELD AS
THE FEATURES MOVE IN. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH A WINDOW OF
DAYBREAK IFR ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER
IN THE VICINITY AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
STEADY S TO SW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

ELSEWHERE...LOWER VFR TO SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AROUND THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FORMING AT 3 TO 4 KFT. THE
HRRR SHOWS THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER GA MAKING A RUN ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE FORECAST THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
ACROSS THE NE PART OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE TIMING...AND THE RELATIVE
CONSISTENCY OF THE HRRR SOLUTIONS...WILL PUSH THE TSRA INTO A TEMPO
GROUP FOR GENERALLY 00Z TO 04Z...A LITTLE SOONER AT KAND...AND WITH
JUST SHRA AT KHKY. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPS...WITH A
PERIOD OF DAYBREAK IFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AIRFIELDS AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILES AND SW FLOW..

OUTLOOK...MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT
LAYS OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORNING STRATUS TO RESULT
EACH DAY...WITH CONTINUED BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     MED   73%     HIGH  82%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG/WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 261832
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
232 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL MAXIMIZE AT NEARLY 1.75 INCHES OVER THE HEART OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WRN GA THIS AFTN AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION WORKS EAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION AROUND 22Z AND THEN
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
A WEAK H5 VORITICITY LOBE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LOBE OF BRIEFLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR...AND
ANY OUTFLOW PUSH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION...COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS INTO FAR SW SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH ANY
STRONG TSRA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM
MIN TEMPS AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS FORMS IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER.

ALTHOUGH THE H5 PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WED...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING. HEATING WILL
GET OFF TO A SLOW START AGAIN ON WED WITH THE ABUNDANT MORNING
CLOUDS...BUT SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER BY WED
AFTN WITH ANY BREAKS GIVEN THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. ANTICIPATE HIGH
SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ON
WED AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S AGAIN TO MAX
OUT NEAR 80 EAST OF THE MTNS...LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN USA...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND GA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. WITH A LACK OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER MODEST...AND GREATEST
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
TREND DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL VERY SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN....WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY PROGRESSES...SUCH THAT BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TOT HE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WHILE MODEST GULF
INFLOW EXISTS OVER THE GULF STATES...AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON SUNDAY...
WHILE THE APPROACHING FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC IMPROVES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N AND W.

WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH TIME. MOIST
INFLOW NEVER REALLY GETS ROBUST...SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE ON A GRAND SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH LATE DAY AS CONVECTIVE
CUMULUS ABOUNDS. THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION OVER GA THIS AFTN MAKING
A RUN ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AND THREATENING THE KCLT AIRFIELD BY
03Z. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OVER INSTABILITY IN THE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AREAS...BUT A PROB30 FOR TSRA AFTER 03Z STILL
SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH A WINDOW OF DAYBREAK
IFR ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE
VICINITY AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT STEADY
S TO SW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

ELSEWHERE...LOWER VFR TO SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AROUND THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FORMING AT 3 TO 4 KFT. THE
HRRR SHOWS THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER GA MAKING A RUN ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE FORECAST THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
ACROSS THE NE PART OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE TIMING...AND THE RELATIVE
CONSISTENCY OF THE HRRR SOLUTIONS...WILL PUSH THE TSRA INTO A TEMPO
GROUP FOR GENERALLY 00Z TO 04Z...A LITTLE SOONER AT KAND...AND WITH
JUST SHRA AT KHKY. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPS...WITH A
PERIOD OF DAYBREAK IFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AIRFIELDS AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILES AND SW FLOW..

OUTLOOK...MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT
LAYS OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORNING STRATUS TO RESULT
EACH DAY...WITH CONTINUED BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH  99%     MED   76%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 261832
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
232 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL MAXIMIZE AT NEARLY 1.75 INCHES OVER THE HEART OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WRN GA THIS AFTN AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION WORKS EAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION AROUND 22Z AND THEN
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
A WEAK H5 VORITICITY LOBE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LOBE OF BRIEFLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR...AND
ANY OUTFLOW PUSH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION...COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS INTO FAR SW SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH ANY
STRONG TSRA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM
MIN TEMPS AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS FORMS IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER.

ALTHOUGH THE H5 PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WED...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING. HEATING WILL
GET OFF TO A SLOW START AGAIN ON WED WITH THE ABUNDANT MORNING
CLOUDS...BUT SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER BY WED
AFTN WITH ANY BREAKS GIVEN THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. ANTICIPATE HIGH
SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ON
WED AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S AGAIN TO MAX
OUT NEAR 80 EAST OF THE MTNS...LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN USA...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND GA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. WITH A LACK OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER MODEST...AND GREATEST
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
TREND DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL VERY SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN....WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY PROGRESSES...SUCH THAT BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TOT HE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WHILE MODEST GULF
INFLOW EXISTS OVER THE GULF STATES...AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON SUNDAY...
WHILE THE APPROACHING FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC IMPROVES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N AND W.

WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH TIME. MOIST
INFLOW NEVER REALLY GETS ROBUST...SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE ON A GRAND SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH LATE DAY AS CONVECTIVE
CUMULUS ABOUNDS. THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION OVER GA THIS AFTN MAKING
A RUN ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AND THREATENING THE KCLT AIRFIELD BY
03Z. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OVER INSTABILITY IN THE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AREAS...BUT A PROB30 FOR TSRA AFTER 03Z STILL
SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH A WINDOW OF DAYBREAK
IFR ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE
VICINITY AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT STEADY
S TO SW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

ELSEWHERE...LOWER VFR TO SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AROUND THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FORMING AT 3 TO 4 KFT. THE
HRRR SHOWS THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER GA MAKING A RUN ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE FORECAST THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
ACROSS THE NE PART OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE TIMING...AND THE RELATIVE
CONSISTENCY OF THE HRRR SOLUTIONS...WILL PUSH THE TSRA INTO A TEMPO
GROUP FOR GENERALLY 00Z TO 04Z...A LITTLE SOONER AT KAND...AND WITH
JUST SHRA AT KHKY. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPS...WITH A
PERIOD OF DAYBREAK IFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AIRFIELDS AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILES AND SW FLOW..

OUTLOOK...MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT
LAYS OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORNING STRATUS TO RESULT
EACH DAY...WITH CONTINUED BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH  99%     MED   76%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 261832
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
232 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WILL MAXIMIZE AT NEARLY 1.75 INCHES OVER THE HEART OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WRN GA THIS AFTN AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION WORKS EAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION AROUND 22Z AND THEN
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
A WEAK H5 VORITICITY LOBE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LOBE OF BRIEFLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR...AND
ANY OUTFLOW PUSH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION...COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS INTO FAR SW SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH ANY
STRONG TSRA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM
MIN TEMPS AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS FORMS IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER.

ALTHOUGH THE H5 PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WED...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING. HEATING WILL
GET OFF TO A SLOW START AGAIN ON WED WITH THE ABUNDANT MORNING
CLOUDS...BUT SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER BY WED
AFTN WITH ANY BREAKS GIVEN THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. ANTICIPATE HIGH
SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ON
WED AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S AGAIN TO MAX
OUT NEAR 80 EAST OF THE MTNS...LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN USA...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND GA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. WITH A LACK OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER MODEST...AND GREATEST
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
TREND DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL VERY SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN....WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY PROGRESSES...SUCH THAT BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TOT HE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WHILE MODEST GULF
INFLOW EXISTS OVER THE GULF STATES...AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON SUNDAY...
WHILE THE APPROACHING FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC IMPROVES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N AND W.

WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH TIME. MOIST
INFLOW NEVER REALLY GETS ROBUST...SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE ON A GRAND SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH LATE DAY AS CONVECTIVE
CUMULUS ABOUNDS. THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION OVER GA THIS AFTN MAKING
A RUN ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AND THREATENING THE KCLT AIRFIELD BY
03Z. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OVER INSTABILITY IN THE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AREAS...BUT A PROB30 FOR TSRA AFTER 03Z STILL
SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH A WINDOW OF DAYBREAK
IFR ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE
VICINITY AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT STEADY
S TO SW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

ELSEWHERE...LOWER VFR TO SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AROUND THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FORMING AT 3 TO 4 KFT. THE
HRRR SHOWS THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER GA MAKING A RUN ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE FORECAST THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
ACROSS THE NE PART OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE TIMING...AND THE RELATIVE
CONSISTENCY OF THE HRRR SOLUTIONS...WILL PUSH THE TSRA INTO A TEMPO
GROUP FOR GENERALLY 00Z TO 04Z...A LITTLE SOONER AT KAND...AND WITH
JUST SHRA AT KHKY. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPS...WITH A
PERIOD OF DAYBREAK IFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AIRFIELDS AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILES AND SW FLOW..

OUTLOOK...MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT
LAYS OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORNING STRATUS TO RESULT
EACH DAY...WITH CONTINUED BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH  99%     MED   76%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261801
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WILL MAXIMIZE AT NEARLY 1.75 INCHES OVER
THE HEART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER THIS AFTN AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WORKS EAST. THE HRRR
SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION
AROUND 22Z AND THEN ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A WEAK H5 VORITICITY LOBE. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL IN MOST AREAS...BUT A LOBE OF BRIEFLY ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL BULK SHEAR...AND ANY OUTFLOW PUSH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
CONVECTION...COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS IN FAR SW
SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH ANY STRONG TSRA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM MIN TEMPS AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

ALTHOUGH THE H5 PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WED...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING. HEATING WILL
GET OFF TO A SLOW START AGAIN ON WED WITH THE ABUNDANT MORNING
CLOUDS...BUT SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER BY WED
AFTN WITH ANY BREAKS GIVEN THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. ANTICIPATE HIGH
SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ON
WED AFTN...BUT LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S AGAIN TO MAX OUT
NEAR 80 EAST OF THE MTNS...LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN USA...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND GA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. WITH A LACK OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER MODEST...AND GREATEST
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
TREND DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL VERY SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN....WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY PROGRESSES...SUCH THAT BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TOT HE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WHILE MODEST GULF
INFLOW EXISTS OVER THE GULF STATES...AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON SUNDAY...
WHILE THE APPROACHING FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC IMPROVES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N AND W.

WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH TIME. MOIST
INFLOW NEVER REALLY GETS ROBUST...SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE ON A GRAND SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH LATE DAY AS CONVECTIVE
CUMULUS ABOUNDS. THE HRRR TIMES CONVECTION OVER GA THIS AFTN TO MAKE
A RUN ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AND THREATEN THE KCLT AIRFIELD BY 03Z.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OVER INSTABILITY IN THE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AREAS...BUT A PROB30 FOR TSRA AFTER 03Z STILL
SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH A WINDOW OF DAYBREAK
IFR ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE
VICINITY AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT STEADY
S TO SW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

ELSEWHERE...LOWER VFR TO SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AROUND THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FORMING AT 3 TO 4 KFT. THE
HRRR SHOWS THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER GA MAKING A RUN ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE FORECAST THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKING ACROSS
THE NE PART OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE TIMING...AND THE RELATIVE
CONSISTENCY OF THE HRRR SOLUTIONS...WILL PUSH THE TSRA INTO A TEMPO
GROUP FOR GENERALLY 00Z TO 04Z...A LITTLE SOONER AT KAVL...AND WITH
JUST SHRA AT KHKY. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPS...WITH A
PERIOD OF DAYBREAK IFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AIRFIELDS AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILES AND SW FLOW..

OUTLOOK...MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT
LAYS OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORNING STRATUS TO RESULT
EACH DAY...WITH CONTINUED BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH  99%     MED   76%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261801
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WILL MAXIMIZE AT NEARLY 1.75 INCHES OVER
THE HEART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER THIS AFTN AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WORKS EAST. THE HRRR
SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER REGION
AROUND 22Z AND THEN ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A WEAK H5 VORITICITY LOBE. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL IN MOST AREAS...BUT A LOBE OF BRIEFLY ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL BULK SHEAR...AND ANY OUTFLOW PUSH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
CONVECTION...COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS IN FAR SW
SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH ANY STRONG TSRA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM MIN TEMPS AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPS IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

ALTHOUGH THE H5 PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WED...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTING. HEATING WILL
GET OFF TO A SLOW START AGAIN ON WED WITH THE ABUNDANT MORNING
CLOUDS...BUT SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO 1500 J/KG OR BETTER BY WED
AFTN WITH ANY BREAKS GIVEN THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. ANTICIPATE HIGH
SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ON
WED AFTN...BUT LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S AGAIN TO MAX OUT
NEAR 80 EAST OF THE MTNS...LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN USA...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A FOOTHOLD OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND GA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. WITH A LACK OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER MODEST...AND GREATEST
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL
TREND DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL VERY SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN....WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY PROGRESSES...SUCH THAT BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TOT HE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WHILE MODEST GULF
INFLOW EXISTS OVER THE GULF STATES...AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES...MID MS RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA ON SUNDAY...
WHILE THE APPROACHING FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC IMPROVES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR N AND W.

WITH HEIGHTS FALLING ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH TIME. MOIST
INFLOW NEVER REALLY GETS ROBUST...SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE ON A GRAND SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH LATE DAY AS CONVECTIVE
CUMULUS ABOUNDS. THE HRRR TIMES CONVECTION OVER GA THIS AFTN TO MAKE
A RUN ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AND THREATEN THE KCLT AIRFIELD BY 03Z.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OVER INSTABILITY IN THE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AREAS...BUT A PROB30 FOR TSRA AFTER 03Z STILL
SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH A WINDOW OF DAYBREAK
IFR ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE
VICINITY AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT STEADY
S TO SW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

ELSEWHERE...LOWER VFR TO SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AROUND THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FORMING AT 3 TO 4 KFT. THE
HRRR SHOWS THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER GA MAKING A RUN ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE FORECAST THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKING ACROSS
THE NE PART OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE TIMING...AND THE RELATIVE
CONSISTENCY OF THE HRRR SOLUTIONS...WILL PUSH THE TSRA INTO A TEMPO
GROUP FOR GENERALLY 00Z TO 04Z...A LITTLE SOONER AT KAVL...AND WITH
JUST SHRA AT KHKY. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPS...WITH A
PERIOD OF DAYBREAK IFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AIRFIELDS AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILES AND SW FLOW..

OUTLOOK...MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT
LAYS OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORNING STRATUS TO RESULT
EACH DAY...WITH CONTINUED BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH  99%     MED   76%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 261510
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1110 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRIGGER IN UPSLOPE
SECTIONS OF THE SRN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING...BUT THE RADAR IS
QUIET ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWFA. ATTENTION IS TURNING BACK TO THE
WEST WHERE CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING ON REMNANT OUTFLOWS IS OCCURRING
ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND ADDITIONAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THE AL/GA LINE THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INSIST ON THIS LATER DEVELOPMENT MAKING A RUN E/NE TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...REACHING NE GA 22Z TO
00Z...CROSSING THE UPSTATE OF SC AND PORTIONS OF WRN NC THIS
EVENING...AND THEN GENERALLY DISSIPATING OVER OR NEAR CLT LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. THIS PRESENTATION SEEMS VERY REASONABLE
GIVEN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...SBCAPE VALUES ON THE LAPS ANALYSIS
ACROSS GA...AND STEERING FLOW. POPS AND HAVE BEEN TWEAKED
ACCORDINGLY.

OTHERWISE...THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED FOR ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION...WITH A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH ANY COLD
POOLS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM POSING THE MAIN CONCERN IN SW SECTIONS
THROUGH MID EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
ISOLD HYDRO ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN MTNS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
REDEVELOPING LOWER STRATUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE FCST ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE TRICKY...AS
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THAT MAY LIMIT
RECOVERY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WED AFTN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS SHUD
BE ENUF FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...AS MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS.
SO WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY TO CATEGORY POP ACRS MOST OF THE
CWFA...LOWEST EAST OF I-77 AND HIGHEST IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL
HELD IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S (AT OR BELOW NORMAL)...UNDER THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. POPS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH PWATS STILL VERY HIGH...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS...THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT TRIES TO
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY WEAK AND PROFILES REMAIN MOIST. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN...WITH
SLOW-MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS STILL THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS
SHUD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
REASSERTS ITSELF SOMEWHAT BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR FRIDAY
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. POPS INCREASE BACK TO HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ON
MONDAY...AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES INTO THE TN
VALLEY...INCREASING INSTBY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFTING AND SCATTERING OF THE MVFR CLOUDS HAS
CONTINUED...AND ANY CIGS GOING FORWARD FROM HEATING SHOULD BE AT
LOWER VFR LEVELS AS CCL HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN
FAIRLY CAPPED...AND ANY CONVECTION MAKING A RUN AT THE AIRFIELD
WOULD HAVE TO APPROACH LATE EVENING WITH THE ACTIVITY PUSHING NE
FROM GA. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KCLT AT PRESENT BEFORE
DISSIPATING...BUT A PROB30 STILL SEEMS WARRANTED AFTER 03Z. MVFR
CIGS LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN THE CONTINUED MOIST BL...WITH IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS REMAIN SLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS HAVE GENERALLY LIFTED TO LOWER END VFR
EXCEPT FOR PESKY STUBBORN STRATUS IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY NEAR
KAVL. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...UNTIL UPSTREAM CONVECTION NEAR THE GA/AL
BORDER BEGINS TO MAKE A RUN NE TOWARD EVENING. WILL KEEP VFR CIGS AT
THE CCL THROUGH THE LATE DAY...WITH GENERALLY PROB30 THROUGH THE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT FOR ARRIVING TSRA. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN S
TO SW AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
CLOUDS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE MOIST BL...WITH
TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY NEAR
LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN FALLS.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   71%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%
KAND       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 261510
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1110 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRIGGER IN UPSLOPE
SECTIONS OF THE SRN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING...BUT THE RADAR IS
QUIET ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWFA. ATTENTION IS TURNING BACK TO THE
WEST WHERE CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING ON REMNANT OUTFLOWS IS OCCURRING
ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND ADDITIONAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THE AL/GA LINE THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS INSIST ON THIS LATER DEVELOPMENT MAKING A RUN E/NE TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...REACHING NE GA 22Z TO
00Z...CROSSING THE UPSTATE OF SC AND PORTIONS OF WRN NC THIS
EVENING...AND THEN GENERALLY DISSIPATING OVER OR NEAR CLT LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. THIS PRESENTATION SEEMS VERY REASONABLE
GIVEN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...SBCAPE VALUES ON THE LAPS ANALYSIS
ACROSS GA...AND STEERING FLOW. POPS AND HAVE BEEN TWEAKED
ACCORDINGLY.

OTHERWISE...THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED FOR ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION...WITH A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH ANY COLD
POOLS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM POSING THE MAIN CONCERN IN SW SECTIONS
THROUGH MID EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
ISOLD HYDRO ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN MTNS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
REDEVELOPING LOWER STRATUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE FCST ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE TRICKY...AS
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THAT MAY LIMIT
RECOVERY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WED AFTN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS SHUD
BE ENUF FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...AS MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS.
SO WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY TO CATEGORY POP ACRS MOST OF THE
CWFA...LOWEST EAST OF I-77 AND HIGHEST IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL
HELD IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S (AT OR BELOW NORMAL)...UNDER THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. POPS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH PWATS STILL VERY HIGH...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS...THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT TRIES TO
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY WEAK AND PROFILES REMAIN MOIST. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN...WITH
SLOW-MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS STILL THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS
SHUD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
REASSERTS ITSELF SOMEWHAT BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR FRIDAY
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. POPS INCREASE BACK TO HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ON
MONDAY...AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES INTO THE TN
VALLEY...INCREASING INSTBY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFTING AND SCATTERING OF THE MVFR CLOUDS HAS
CONTINUED...AND ANY CIGS GOING FORWARD FROM HEATING SHOULD BE AT
LOWER VFR LEVELS AS CCL HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN
FAIRLY CAPPED...AND ANY CONVECTION MAKING A RUN AT THE AIRFIELD
WOULD HAVE TO APPROACH LATE EVENING WITH THE ACTIVITY PUSHING NE
FROM GA. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KCLT AT PRESENT BEFORE
DISSIPATING...BUT A PROB30 STILL SEEMS WARRANTED AFTER 03Z. MVFR
CIGS LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN THE CONTINUED MOIST BL...WITH IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS REMAIN SLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS HAVE GENERALLY LIFTED TO LOWER END VFR
EXCEPT FOR PESKY STUBBORN STRATUS IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY NEAR
KAVL. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...UNTIL UPSTREAM CONVECTION NEAR THE GA/AL
BORDER BEGINS TO MAKE A RUN NE TOWARD EVENING. WILL KEEP VFR CIGS AT
THE CCL THROUGH THE LATE DAY...WITH GENERALLY PROB30 THROUGH THE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT FOR ARRIVING TSRA. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN S
TO SW AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
CLOUDS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE MOIST BL...WITH
TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY NEAR
LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN FALLS.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   71%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%
KAND       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261344
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
944 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM...THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO
BOOST POPS IN THE SRN MOUNTAINS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL PERMIT SOLID CHC TO LOW LIKELY
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE SRLY UPSLOPE SECTIONS...THEN CHC
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST AS CLOUD COVER IS
INHIBITING INSOLATION IN MOST AREAS.

OTHERWISE...COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PASSING UPPER
SUPPORT LIFTS AWAY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY
SCATTER UNTIL CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPS AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
BACK OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE NITE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND QUITE A BIT OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WRN SECTIONS. THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THESE
TRENDS...SO HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS IN THE GRIDS. BEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY EVENING...AND MAINLY ALOFT WHEN MID LEVEL
TEMPS COOL AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR DEVELOP...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT THEY
SHUD REMAIN ISOLATED. LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHC OF HEAVY RAIN AS PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MBE
VELOCITY VECTORS ARE ALSO SHORT INDICATING SLOW MOVING STORMS. THERE
COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL WHICH COULD ALLOW
PRECIP AMOUNTS TO QUICKLY MOUNT. THAT SAID...CHC IS LOW ENUF AND
UNCERTAINTY HIGH ENUF TO PRECLUDE ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM... BUT
HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY FAVOR THE WRN CWFA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WEST AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EAST. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE FCST ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE TRICKY...AS
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THAT MAY LIMIT
RECOVERY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WED AFTN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS SHUD
BE ENUF FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...AS MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS.
SO WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY TO CATEGORY POP ACRS MOST OF THE
CWFA...LOWEST EAST OF I-77 AND HIGHEST IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL
HELD IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S (AT OR BELOW NORMAL)...UNDER THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. POPS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH PWATS STILL VERY HIGH...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS...THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT TRIES TO
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY WEAK AND PROFILES REMAIN MOIST. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN...WITH
SLOW-MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS STILL THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS
SHUD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
REASSERTS ITSELF SOMEWHAT BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR FRIDAY
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. POPS INCREASE BACK TO HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ON
MONDAY...AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES INTO THE TN
VALLEY...INCREASING INSTBY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFTING AND SCATTERING HAS STARTED A BIT EARLIER THAN
FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE AIRFIELD. STILL SEEING
SOME MVFR CIGS TO THE WEST AND TEMPO MVFR THROUGH 16Z IS
APPROPRIATE. ANTCIPATE LOWER CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR AROUND NOON WITH
ANY AFTN CIGS FORMING MAINLY NEAR THE CCL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PUSH BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION OFF INTO THE EVENING...SO HAVE TRENDED
PROB30 THAT WAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MVFR THEN IFR
CIGS AS SLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE. WINDS REMAIN SLY
THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS ARE STARTING TO LIFT IN MOST PLACES BUT
WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS STILL LIKELY AT TIMES ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SHRA WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT KAVL
THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY TO START
EARLIER...BUT STILL SHUD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS
RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION LINGERING THRU THE NITE. SLY WINDS
THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 261344
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
944 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM...THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO
BOOST POPS IN THE SRN MOUNTAINS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL PERMIT SOLID CHC TO LOW LIKELY
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE SRLY UPSLOPE SECTIONS...THEN CHC
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST AS CLOUD COVER IS
INHIBITING INSOLATION IN MOST AREAS.

OTHERWISE...COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PASSING UPPER
SUPPORT LIFTS AWAY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY
SCATTER UNTIL CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPS AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
BACK OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE NITE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND QUITE A BIT OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WRN SECTIONS. THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THESE
TRENDS...SO HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS IN THE GRIDS. BEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY EVENING...AND MAINLY ALOFT WHEN MID LEVEL
TEMPS COOL AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR DEVELOP...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT THEY
SHUD REMAIN ISOLATED. LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHC OF HEAVY RAIN AS PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MBE
VELOCITY VECTORS ARE ALSO SHORT INDICATING SLOW MOVING STORMS. THERE
COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL WHICH COULD ALLOW
PRECIP AMOUNTS TO QUICKLY MOUNT. THAT SAID...CHC IS LOW ENUF AND
UNCERTAINTY HIGH ENUF TO PRECLUDE ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM... BUT
HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY FAVOR THE WRN CWFA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WEST AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EAST. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE FCST ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE TRICKY...AS
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THAT MAY LIMIT
RECOVERY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WED AFTN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS SHUD
BE ENUF FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...AS MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS.
SO WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY TO CATEGORY POP ACRS MOST OF THE
CWFA...LOWEST EAST OF I-77 AND HIGHEST IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL
HELD IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S (AT OR BELOW NORMAL)...UNDER THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. POPS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH PWATS STILL VERY HIGH...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS...THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT TRIES TO
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY WEAK AND PROFILES REMAIN MOIST. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN...WITH
SLOW-MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS STILL THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS
SHUD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
REASSERTS ITSELF SOMEWHAT BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR FRIDAY
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. POPS INCREASE BACK TO HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ON
MONDAY...AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES INTO THE TN
VALLEY...INCREASING INSTBY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFTING AND SCATTERING HAS STARTED A BIT EARLIER THAN
FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE AIRFIELD. STILL SEEING
SOME MVFR CIGS TO THE WEST AND TEMPO MVFR THROUGH 16Z IS
APPROPRIATE. ANTCIPATE LOWER CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR AROUND NOON WITH
ANY AFTN CIGS FORMING MAINLY NEAR THE CCL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PUSH BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION OFF INTO THE EVENING...SO HAVE TRENDED
PROB30 THAT WAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MVFR THEN IFR
CIGS AS SLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE. WINDS REMAIN SLY
THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS ARE STARTING TO LIFT IN MOST PLACES BUT
WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS STILL LIKELY AT TIMES ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SHRA WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT KAVL
THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY TO START
EARLIER...BUT STILL SHUD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS
RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION LINGERING THRU THE NITE. SLY WINDS
THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 261344
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
944 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM...THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO
BOOST POPS IN THE SRN MOUNTAINS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL PERMIT SOLID CHC TO LOW LIKELY
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE SRLY UPSLOPE SECTIONS...THEN CHC
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST AS CLOUD COVER IS
INHIBITING INSOLATION IN MOST AREAS.

OTHERWISE...COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PASSING UPPER
SUPPORT LIFTS AWAY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY
SCATTER UNTIL CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPS AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
BACK OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE NITE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND QUITE A BIT OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WRN SECTIONS. THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THESE
TRENDS...SO HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS IN THE GRIDS. BEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY EVENING...AND MAINLY ALOFT WHEN MID LEVEL
TEMPS COOL AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR DEVELOP...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT THEY
SHUD REMAIN ISOLATED. LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHC OF HEAVY RAIN AS PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MBE
VELOCITY VECTORS ARE ALSO SHORT INDICATING SLOW MOVING STORMS. THERE
COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL WHICH COULD ALLOW
PRECIP AMOUNTS TO QUICKLY MOUNT. THAT SAID...CHC IS LOW ENUF AND
UNCERTAINTY HIGH ENUF TO PRECLUDE ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM... BUT
HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY FAVOR THE WRN CWFA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WEST AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EAST. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE FCST ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE TRICKY...AS
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THAT MAY LIMIT
RECOVERY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WED AFTN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS SHUD
BE ENUF FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...AS MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS.
SO WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY TO CATEGORY POP ACRS MOST OF THE
CWFA...LOWEST EAST OF I-77 AND HIGHEST IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL
HELD IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S (AT OR BELOW NORMAL)...UNDER THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. POPS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH PWATS STILL VERY HIGH...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS...THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT TRIES TO
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY WEAK AND PROFILES REMAIN MOIST. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN...WITH
SLOW-MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS STILL THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS
SHUD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
REASSERTS ITSELF SOMEWHAT BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR FRIDAY
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. POPS INCREASE BACK TO HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ON
MONDAY...AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES INTO THE TN
VALLEY...INCREASING INSTBY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFTING AND SCATTERING HAS STARTED A BIT EARLIER THAN
FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE AIRFIELD. STILL SEEING
SOME MVFR CIGS TO THE WEST AND TEMPO MVFR THROUGH 16Z IS
APPROPRIATE. ANTCIPATE LOWER CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR AROUND NOON WITH
ANY AFTN CIGS FORMING MAINLY NEAR THE CCL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PUSH BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION OFF INTO THE EVENING...SO HAVE TRENDED
PROB30 THAT WAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MVFR THEN IFR
CIGS AS SLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE. WINDS REMAIN SLY
THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS ARE STARTING TO LIFT IN MOST PLACES BUT
WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS STILL LIKELY AT TIMES ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SHRA WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT KAVL
THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY TO START
EARLIER...BUT STILL SHUD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS
RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION LINGERING THRU THE NITE. SLY WINDS
THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261344
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
944 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM...THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO
BOOST POPS IN THE SRN MOUNTAINS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL PERMIT SOLID CHC TO LOW LIKELY
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE SRLY UPSLOPE SECTIONS...THEN CHC
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST AS CLOUD COVER IS
INHIBITING INSOLATION IN MOST AREAS.

OTHERWISE...COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PASSING UPPER
SUPPORT LIFTS AWAY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY
SCATTER UNTIL CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPS AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
BACK OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE NITE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND QUITE A BIT OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WRN SECTIONS. THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THESE
TRENDS...SO HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS IN THE GRIDS. BEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY EVENING...AND MAINLY ALOFT WHEN MID LEVEL
TEMPS COOL AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR DEVELOP...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT THEY
SHUD REMAIN ISOLATED. LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHC OF HEAVY RAIN AS PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MBE
VELOCITY VECTORS ARE ALSO SHORT INDICATING SLOW MOVING STORMS. THERE
COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL WHICH COULD ALLOW
PRECIP AMOUNTS TO QUICKLY MOUNT. THAT SAID...CHC IS LOW ENUF AND
UNCERTAINTY HIGH ENUF TO PRECLUDE ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM... BUT
HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY FAVOR THE WRN CWFA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WEST AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EAST. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE FCST ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE TRICKY...AS
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THAT MAY LIMIT
RECOVERY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WED AFTN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS SHUD
BE ENUF FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...AS MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS.
SO WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY TO CATEGORY POP ACRS MOST OF THE
CWFA...LOWEST EAST OF I-77 AND HIGHEST IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL
HELD IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S (AT OR BELOW NORMAL)...UNDER THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. POPS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH PWATS STILL VERY HIGH...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS...THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT TRIES TO
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY WEAK AND PROFILES REMAIN MOIST. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN...WITH
SLOW-MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS STILL THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS
SHUD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
REASSERTS ITSELF SOMEWHAT BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR FRIDAY
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. POPS INCREASE BACK TO HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ON
MONDAY...AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES INTO THE TN
VALLEY...INCREASING INSTBY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFTING AND SCATTERING HAS STARTED A BIT EARLIER THAN
FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE AIRFIELD. STILL SEEING
SOME MVFR CIGS TO THE WEST AND TEMPO MVFR THROUGH 16Z IS
APPROPRIATE. ANTCIPATE LOWER CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR AROUND NOON WITH
ANY AFTN CIGS FORMING MAINLY NEAR THE CCL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PUSH BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION OFF INTO THE EVENING...SO HAVE TRENDED
PROB30 THAT WAY AS WELL. SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MVFR THEN IFR
CIGS AS SLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE. WINDS REMAIN SLY
THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS ARE STARTING TO LIFT IN MOST PLACES BUT
WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS STILL LIKELY AT TIMES ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SHRA WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT KAVL
THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY TO START
EARLIER...BUT STILL SHUD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS
RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION LINGERING THRU THE NITE. SLY WINDS
THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261205
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM...SHRA SCATTERING OUT...BUT LINGERING ACROSS THE MTNS.
EXPECT THE SHRA TO BECOME ISOLATED THRU THE MORNING...BUT LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT BEST CHC OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FCST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 300 AM...SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING IS
COMBINING WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THE MTNS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NE
GA. THIS WAVE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER DAYBREAK BRINGING
AND END TO THE FORCING AND ALLOWING COVERAGE TO DIMINISH TO
ISOLATED. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING EVEN OUTSIDE OF PRECIP WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPS AND BRINGS
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BACK OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL RETURN FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA. THE
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NITE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND QUITE A BIT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WRN SECTIONS. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THESE TRENDS...SO HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS IN THE GRIDS. BEST
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY EVENING...AND MAINLY ALOFT
WHEN MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DEVELOP...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...BUT THEY SHUD REMAIN ISOLATED. LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHC OF
HEAVY RAIN AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. MBE VELOCITY VECTORS ARE ALSO SHORT INDICATING SLOW MOVING
STORMS. THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL WHICH
COULD ALLOW PRECIP AMOUNTS TO QUICKLY MOUNT. THAT SAID...CHC IS LOW
ENUF AND UNCERTAINTY HIGH ENUF TO PRECLUDE ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...
BUT HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY FAVOR THE WRN CWFA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL WEST AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EAST. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE FCST ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE TRICKY...AS
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THAT MAY LIMIT
RECOVERY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WED AFTN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS SHUD
BE ENUF FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...AS MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS.
SO WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY TO CATEGORY POP ACRS MOST OF THE
CWFA...LOWEST EAST OF I-77 AND HIGHEST IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL
HELD IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S (AT OR BELOW NORMAL)...UNDER THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. POPS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH PWATS STILL VERY HIGH...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS...THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT TRIES TO
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY WEAK AND PROFILES REMAIN MOIST. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN...WITH
SLOW-MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS STILL THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS
SHUD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
REASSERTS ITSELF SOMEWHAT BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR FRIDAY
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. POPS INCREASE BACK TO HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ON
MONDAY...AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES INTO THE TN
VALLEY...INCREASING INSTBY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SURROUNDING SITES ARE MVFR AND EXPECT MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
TEMPO IFR...THERE AS WELL THIS MORNING. SHUD LIFT TO LOW VFR BY NOON
AND MAY EVEN SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY BEFORE CONVECTIVE CU RETURN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION OFF
INTO THE EVENING...SO HAVE TRENDED PROB30 THAT WAY AS WELL. SHUD BE
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MVFR THEN IFR CIGS AS SLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUE. WINDS REMAIN SLY THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE... SIMILAR TO KCLT...EXCEPT THAT RESTRICTIONS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE...AND SHRA WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT KAVL. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY TO START EARLIER...BUT STILL SHUD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING THRU THE NITE. SLY WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  98%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261205
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM...SHRA SCATTERING OUT...BUT LINGERING ACROSS THE MTNS.
EXPECT THE SHRA TO BECOME ISOLATED THRU THE MORNING...BUT LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT BEST CHC OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FCST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 300 AM...SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING IS
COMBINING WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THE MTNS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NE
GA. THIS WAVE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER DAYBREAK BRINGING
AND END TO THE FORCING AND ALLOWING COVERAGE TO DIMINISH TO
ISOLATED. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING EVEN OUTSIDE OF PRECIP WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPS AND BRINGS
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BACK OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL RETURN FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA. THE
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NITE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND QUITE A BIT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WRN SECTIONS. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THESE TRENDS...SO HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS IN THE GRIDS. BEST
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY EVENING...AND MAINLY ALOFT
WHEN MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DEVELOP...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...BUT THEY SHUD REMAIN ISOLATED. LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHC OF
HEAVY RAIN AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. MBE VELOCITY VECTORS ARE ALSO SHORT INDICATING SLOW MOVING
STORMS. THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL WHICH
COULD ALLOW PRECIP AMOUNTS TO QUICKLY MOUNT. THAT SAID...CHC IS LOW
ENUF AND UNCERTAINTY HIGH ENUF TO PRECLUDE ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...
BUT HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY FAVOR THE WRN CWFA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL WEST AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EAST. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE FCST ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE TRICKY...AS
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THAT MAY LIMIT
RECOVERY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WED AFTN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS SHUD
BE ENUF FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...AS MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS.
SO WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY TO CATEGORY POP ACRS MOST OF THE
CWFA...LOWEST EAST OF I-77 AND HIGHEST IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL
HELD IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S (AT OR BELOW NORMAL)...UNDER THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. POPS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH PWATS STILL VERY HIGH...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS...THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT TRIES TO
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY WEAK AND PROFILES REMAIN MOIST. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN...WITH
SLOW-MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS STILL THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS
SHUD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
REASSERTS ITSELF SOMEWHAT BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR FRIDAY
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. POPS INCREASE BACK TO HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ON
MONDAY...AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES INTO THE TN
VALLEY...INCREASING INSTBY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SURROUNDING SITES ARE MVFR AND EXPECT MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
TEMPO IFR...THERE AS WELL THIS MORNING. SHUD LIFT TO LOW VFR BY NOON
AND MAY EVEN SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY BEFORE CONVECTIVE CU RETURN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION OFF
INTO THE EVENING...SO HAVE TRENDED PROB30 THAT WAY AS WELL. SHUD BE
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MVFR THEN IFR CIGS AS SLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUE. WINDS REMAIN SLY THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE... SIMILAR TO KCLT...EXCEPT THAT RESTRICTIONS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE...AND SHRA WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT KAVL. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY TO START EARLIER...BUT STILL SHUD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING THRU THE NITE. SLY WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  98%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 261205
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM...SHRA SCATTERING OUT...BUT LINGERING ACROSS THE MTNS.
EXPECT THE SHRA TO BECOME ISOLATED THRU THE MORNING...BUT LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT BEST CHC OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FCST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 300 AM...SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING IS
COMBINING WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THE MTNS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NE
GA. THIS WAVE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER DAYBREAK BRINGING
AND END TO THE FORCING AND ALLOWING COVERAGE TO DIMINISH TO
ISOLATED. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING EVEN OUTSIDE OF PRECIP WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPS AND BRINGS
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BACK OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL RETURN FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA. THE
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NITE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND QUITE A BIT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WRN SECTIONS. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THESE TRENDS...SO HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS IN THE GRIDS. BEST
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY EVENING...AND MAINLY ALOFT
WHEN MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DEVELOP...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...BUT THEY SHUD REMAIN ISOLATED. LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHC OF
HEAVY RAIN AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. MBE VELOCITY VECTORS ARE ALSO SHORT INDICATING SLOW MOVING
STORMS. THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL WHICH
COULD ALLOW PRECIP AMOUNTS TO QUICKLY MOUNT. THAT SAID...CHC IS LOW
ENUF AND UNCERTAINTY HIGH ENUF TO PRECLUDE ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...
BUT HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY FAVOR THE WRN CWFA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL WEST AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EAST. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE FCST ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE TRICKY...AS
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THAT MAY LIMIT
RECOVERY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WED AFTN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS SHUD
BE ENUF FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...AS MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS.
SO WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY TO CATEGORY POP ACRS MOST OF THE
CWFA...LOWEST EAST OF I-77 AND HIGHEST IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL
HELD IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S (AT OR BELOW NORMAL)...UNDER THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. POPS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH PWATS STILL VERY HIGH...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS...THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT TRIES TO
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY WEAK AND PROFILES REMAIN MOIST. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN...WITH
SLOW-MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS STILL THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS
SHUD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
REASSERTS ITSELF SOMEWHAT BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR FRIDAY
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. POPS INCREASE BACK TO HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ON
MONDAY...AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES INTO THE TN
VALLEY...INCREASING INSTBY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SURROUNDING SITES ARE MVFR AND EXPECT MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
TEMPO IFR...THERE AS WELL THIS MORNING. SHUD LIFT TO LOW VFR BY NOON
AND MAY EVEN SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY BEFORE CONVECTIVE CU RETURN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION OFF
INTO THE EVENING...SO HAVE TRENDED PROB30 THAT WAY AS WELL. SHUD BE
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MVFR THEN IFR CIGS AS SLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUE. WINDS REMAIN SLY THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE... SIMILAR TO KCLT...EXCEPT THAT RESTRICTIONS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE...AND SHRA WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT KAVL. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY TO START EARLIER...BUT STILL SHUD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING THRU THE NITE. SLY WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  98%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260718
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING IS
COMBINING WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THE MTNS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NE
GA. THIS WAVE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER DAYBREAK BRINGING
AND END TO THE FORCING AND ALLOWING COVERAGE TO DIMINISH TO
ISOLATED. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING EVEN OUTSIDE OF PRECIP WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPS AND BRINGS
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BACK OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL RETURN FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA. THE
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NITE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND QUITE A BIT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WRN SECTIONS. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THESE TRENDS...SO HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS IN THE GRIDS. BEST
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY EVENING...AND MAINLY ALOFT
WHEN MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DEVELOP...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...BUT THEY SHUD REMAIN ISOLATED. LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHC OF
HEAVY RAIN AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. MBE VELOCITY VECTORS ARE ALSO SHORT INDICATING SLOW MOVING
STORMS. THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL WHICH
COULD ALLOW PRECIP AMOUNTS TO QUICKLY MOUNT. THAT SAID...CHC IS LOW
ENUF AND UNCERTAINTY HIGH ENUF TO PRECLUDE ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...
BUT HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY FAVOR THE WRN CWFA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL WEST AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EAST. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE FCST ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE TRICKY...AS
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THAT MAY LIMIT
RECOVERY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WED AFTN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS SHUD
BE ENUF FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...AS MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS.
SO WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY TO CATEGORY POP ACRS MOST OF THE
CWFA...LOWEST EAST OF I-77 AND HIGHEST IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL
HELD IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S (AT OR BELOW NORMAL)...UNDER THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. POPS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH PWATS STILL VERY HIGH...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS...THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT TRIES TO
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY WEAK AND PROFILES REMAIN MOIST. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN...WITH
SLOW-MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS STILL THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS
SHUD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
REASSERTS ITSELF SOMEWHAT BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR FRIDAY
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. POPS INCREASE BACK TO HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ON
MONDAY...AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES INTO THE TN
VALLEY...INCREASING INSTBY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP THIS MORNING ON THE W
SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH. MOST GUIDANCE PROGS LOW STRATUS FORMING BY
DAYBREAK...WITH CONSENSUS NOW SUGGESTING IT WILL BOTTOM OUT AT THE
LOW END OF MVFR. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS A STEADY SOUTH WIND SHOULD
KEEP THE SFC LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP IFR AT BAY. THE STRATUS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A HEALTHY CU FIELD QUICKLY
REPLACING IT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER 00Z WHEN SHORTWAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD. PROB30 THUS SHIFTED A BIT TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE... LOOKS LIKE MOST PRECIP WILL REMAIN NEAR KAVL THIS
MORNING WITH LOW CHC ELSEHWERE. CELLS NEARING KAVL RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR AN EARLY TEMPO FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHC FOR
RESTRICTIONS WITH MVFR LIKELY AND IFR POSSIBLE ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOIST LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW. THAT SAID...CHC OF CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH GOOD CHC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. PROB30 AND VCTS HAVE BEEN ADDED/ADJUSTED. THE MOIST
LLVL FLOW SHOULD BRING IN LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. THE LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 16-17Z.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY BY LATE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   71%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  85%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 260718
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING IS
COMBINING WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THE MTNS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NE
GA. THIS WAVE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER DAYBREAK BRINGING
AND END TO THE FORCING AND ALLOWING COVERAGE TO DIMINISH TO
ISOLATED. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING EVEN OUTSIDE OF PRECIP WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPS AND BRINGS
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BACK OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL RETURN FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA. THE
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NITE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND QUITE A BIT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WRN SECTIONS. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THESE TRENDS...SO HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS IN THE GRIDS. BEST
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY EVENING...AND MAINLY ALOFT
WHEN MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DEVELOP...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...BUT THEY SHUD REMAIN ISOLATED. LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHC OF
HEAVY RAIN AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. MBE VELOCITY VECTORS ARE ALSO SHORT INDICATING SLOW MOVING
STORMS. THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL WHICH
COULD ALLOW PRECIP AMOUNTS TO QUICKLY MOUNT. THAT SAID...CHC IS LOW
ENUF AND UNCERTAINTY HIGH ENUF TO PRECLUDE ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...
BUT HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY FAVOR THE WRN CWFA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL WEST AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EAST. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE FCST ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE TRICKY...AS
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THAT MAY LIMIT
RECOVERY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WED AFTN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS SHUD
BE ENUF FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...AS MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS.
SO WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY TO CATEGORY POP ACRS MOST OF THE
CWFA...LOWEST EAST OF I-77 AND HIGHEST IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL
HELD IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S (AT OR BELOW NORMAL)...UNDER THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. POPS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH PWATS STILL VERY HIGH...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS...THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT TRIES TO
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY WEAK AND PROFILES REMAIN MOIST. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN...WITH
SLOW-MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS STILL THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS
SHUD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
REASSERTS ITSELF SOMEWHAT BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR FRIDAY
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. POPS INCREASE BACK TO HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ON
MONDAY...AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES INTO THE TN
VALLEY...INCREASING INSTBY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP THIS MORNING ON THE W
SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH. MOST GUIDANCE PROGS LOW STRATUS FORMING BY
DAYBREAK...WITH CONSENSUS NOW SUGGESTING IT WILL BOTTOM OUT AT THE
LOW END OF MVFR. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS A STEADY SOUTH WIND SHOULD
KEEP THE SFC LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP IFR AT BAY. THE STRATUS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A HEALTHY CU FIELD QUICKLY
REPLACING IT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER 00Z WHEN SHORTWAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD. PROB30 THUS SHIFTED A BIT TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE... LOOKS LIKE MOST PRECIP WILL REMAIN NEAR KAVL THIS
MORNING WITH LOW CHC ELSEHWERE. CELLS NEARING KAVL RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR AN EARLY TEMPO FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHC FOR
RESTRICTIONS WITH MVFR LIKELY AND IFR POSSIBLE ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOIST LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW. THAT SAID...CHC OF CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH GOOD CHC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. PROB30 AND VCTS HAVE BEEN ADDED/ADJUSTED. THE MOIST
LLVL FLOW SHOULD BRING IN LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. THE LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 16-17Z.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY BY LATE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   71%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  85%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260718
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING IS
COMBINING WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THE MTNS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NE
GA. THIS WAVE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER DAYBREAK BRINGING
AND END TO THE FORCING AND ALLOWING COVERAGE TO DIMINISH TO
ISOLATED. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING EVEN OUTSIDE OF PRECIP WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPS AND BRINGS
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BACK OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL RETURN FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA. THE
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NITE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND QUITE A BIT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WRN SECTIONS. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THESE TRENDS...SO HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS IN THE GRIDS. BEST
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY EVENING...AND MAINLY ALOFT
WHEN MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DEVELOP...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...BUT THEY SHUD REMAIN ISOLATED. LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHC OF
HEAVY RAIN AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. MBE VELOCITY VECTORS ARE ALSO SHORT INDICATING SLOW MOVING
STORMS. THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL WHICH
COULD ALLOW PRECIP AMOUNTS TO QUICKLY MOUNT. THAT SAID...CHC IS LOW
ENUF AND UNCERTAINTY HIGH ENUF TO PRECLUDE ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...
BUT HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY FAVOR THE WRN CWFA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL WEST AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EAST. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE FCST ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE TRICKY...AS
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THAT MAY LIMIT
RECOVERY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WED AFTN. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS SHUD
BE ENUF FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...AS MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS.
SO WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY TO CATEGORY POP ACRS MOST OF THE
CWFA...LOWEST EAST OF I-77 AND HIGHEST IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL
HELD IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S (AT OR BELOW NORMAL)...UNDER THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIP. POPS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH PWATS STILL VERY HIGH...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS...THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT TRIES TO
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY WEAK AND PROFILES REMAIN MOIST. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN...WITH
SLOW-MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS STILL THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS
SHUD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
REASSERTS ITSELF SOMEWHAT BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR FRIDAY
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. POPS INCREASE BACK TO HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY ON
MONDAY...AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES INTO THE TN
VALLEY...INCREASING INSTBY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP THIS MORNING ON THE W
SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH. MOST GUIDANCE PROGS LOW STRATUS FORMING BY
DAYBREAK...WITH CONSENSUS NOW SUGGESTING IT WILL BOTTOM OUT AT THE
LOW END OF MVFR. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS A STEADY SOUTH WIND SHOULD
KEEP THE SFC LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP IFR AT BAY. THE STRATUS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A HEALTHY CU FIELD QUICKLY
REPLACING IT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER 00Z WHEN SHORTWAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD. PROB30 THUS SHIFTED A BIT TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE... LOOKS LIKE MOST PRECIP WILL REMAIN NEAR KAVL THIS
MORNING WITH LOW CHC ELSEHWERE. CELLS NEARING KAVL RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR AN EARLY TEMPO FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHC FOR
RESTRICTIONS WITH MVFR LIKELY AND IFR POSSIBLE ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOIST LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW. THAT SAID...CHC OF CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH GOOD CHC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. PROB30 AND VCTS HAVE BEEN ADDED/ADJUSTED. THE MOIST
LLVL FLOW SHOULD BRING IN LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. THE LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 16-17Z.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY BY LATE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   71%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  85%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260541
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM...SH/TSRA MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE MTNS OF THE CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK WHEN THEY SHUD DIMINISH. ONLY A
VERY LOW CHC OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...
GOING FCST ON TRACK WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

1000 PM UPDATE...THE REMNANTS OF STRONGER CONVECTION OVER EAST TN
AND NORTH GA ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWFA.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST INTO MORE STABLE
AIR CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER DEWPOINTS. REVISED POPS TO BRING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY TO FALL APART BY THE TIME IT
REACHES I-26. UPDATED T/TD TRENDS OVERNIGHT FROM SHORT TERM
CONSENSUS PRODUCT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPTS.

730 PM UPDATE...THOUGH MOISTURE FLUX OVERNIGHT SHOULD OFFSET
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TO SOME DEGREE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATER TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVES APPEAR TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SO I BACKED OFF POPS EXCEPT NEAR THE SRN FACING BLUE
RIDGE...WHICH IS STILL FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT BY CNVCTN ALLOWING
MODELS.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET LIFTS
NWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW
EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...MOIST LOW LEVEL
SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER
THE MTNS WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE BEST. ANTICIPATE MILD MINS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY
MIXING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO GET OFF
TO A VERY SLOW START ON TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE
INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE MTNS AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AS
CUMULUS FILLS IN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER. ANOTHER SHOT
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SW MTNS ON
TUESDAY AFTN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION GENERATING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE. A SHARP W
TO E GRADIENT IN LATE DAY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF PERSISTING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...ONCE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PW AIR MOVES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...IT WILL
REMAIN THERE...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. WHILE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DIE OFF EACH NIGHT. THAT MIGHT BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS THAT
END RIGHT AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN FROM
THE W AT THAT TIME...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THRU
THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE LEFT WITH A FCST THAT FAVORS
LIKELY POP OVER THE MTNS AND CHANCE POP OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT MIGHT IMPLY A
CONTINUAL THREAT. IN REALITY...THERE WILL BE LONG STRETCHES WHEN
NOTHING HAPPENS...IT IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PASS. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OWING TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS LOBES
OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND NW. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY OVER THE SE REGION THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH UPPER RIDGING WEAKEN A BIT ON
DAYS 6 AND 7. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER SHORTWAVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER WITH ITS APPROACH COMPARED TO THE NEWER RUN OF THE
GFS...HOWEVER THE TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE LESS THAN 24HRS.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST SLY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING EXPECTED ON SAT AND
SUN. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWS AS IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND APPEARS TO ESSENTIALLY LAY UP JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SUN AND MON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PREVENTS IT FROM MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MISS RIVER VALLEY ON SUN...YET IT BECOMES REABSORBED BACK INTO THE
BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO. AT PRESENT...THE ECMWF IS
LESS BULLISH WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TS EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON SAT AND SUN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
UNLIKELY WITH WEAK SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP THIS MORNING ON THE W
SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH. MOST GUIDANCE PROGS LOW STRATUS FORMING BY
DAYBREAK...WITH CONSENSUS NOW SUGGESTING IT WILL BOTTOM OUT AT THE
LOW END OF MVFR. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS A STEADY SOUTH WIND SHOULD
KEEP THE SFC LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP IFR AT BAY. THE STRATUS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A HEALTHY CU FIELD QUICKLY
REPLACING IT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER 00Z WHEN SHORTWAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD. PROB30 THUS SHIFTED A BIT TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE... LOOKS LIKE MOST PRECIP WILL REMAIN NEAR KAVL THIS
MORNING WITH LOW CHC ELSEHWERE. CELLS NEARING KAVL RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR AN EARLY TEMPO FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHC FOR
RESTRICTIONS WITH MVFR LIKELY AND IFR POSSIBLE ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOIST LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW. THAT SAID...CHC OF CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH GOOD CHC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. PROB30 AND VCTS HAVE BEEN ADDED/ADJUSTED. THE MOIST
LLVL FLOW SHOULD BRING IN LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. THE LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 16-17Z.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY BY LATE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260541
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM...SH/TSRA MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE MTNS OF THE CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK WHEN THEY SHUD DIMINISH. ONLY A
VERY LOW CHC OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...
GOING FCST ON TRACK WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

1000 PM UPDATE...THE REMNANTS OF STRONGER CONVECTION OVER EAST TN
AND NORTH GA ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWFA.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST INTO MORE STABLE
AIR CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER DEWPOINTS. REVISED POPS TO BRING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY TO FALL APART BY THE TIME IT
REACHES I-26. UPDATED T/TD TRENDS OVERNIGHT FROM SHORT TERM
CONSENSUS PRODUCT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPTS.

730 PM UPDATE...THOUGH MOISTURE FLUX OVERNIGHT SHOULD OFFSET
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TO SOME DEGREE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATER TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVES APPEAR TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SO I BACKED OFF POPS EXCEPT NEAR THE SRN FACING BLUE
RIDGE...WHICH IS STILL FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT BY CNVCTN ALLOWING
MODELS.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET LIFTS
NWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW
EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...MOIST LOW LEVEL
SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER
THE MTNS WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE BEST. ANTICIPATE MILD MINS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY
MIXING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO GET OFF
TO A VERY SLOW START ON TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE
INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE MTNS AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AS
CUMULUS FILLS IN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER. ANOTHER SHOT
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SW MTNS ON
TUESDAY AFTN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION GENERATING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE. A SHARP W
TO E GRADIENT IN LATE DAY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF PERSISTING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...ONCE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PW AIR MOVES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...IT WILL
REMAIN THERE...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. WHILE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DIE OFF EACH NIGHT. THAT MIGHT BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS THAT
END RIGHT AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN FROM
THE W AT THAT TIME...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THRU
THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE LEFT WITH A FCST THAT FAVORS
LIKELY POP OVER THE MTNS AND CHANCE POP OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT MIGHT IMPLY A
CONTINUAL THREAT. IN REALITY...THERE WILL BE LONG STRETCHES WHEN
NOTHING HAPPENS...IT IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PASS. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OWING TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS LOBES
OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND NW. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY OVER THE SE REGION THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH UPPER RIDGING WEAKEN A BIT ON
DAYS 6 AND 7. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER SHORTWAVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER WITH ITS APPROACH COMPARED TO THE NEWER RUN OF THE
GFS...HOWEVER THE TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE LESS THAN 24HRS.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST SLY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING EXPECTED ON SAT AND
SUN. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWS AS IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND APPEARS TO ESSENTIALLY LAY UP JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SUN AND MON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PREVENTS IT FROM MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MISS RIVER VALLEY ON SUN...YET IT BECOMES REABSORBED BACK INTO THE
BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO. AT PRESENT...THE ECMWF IS
LESS BULLISH WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TS EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON SAT AND SUN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
UNLIKELY WITH WEAK SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP THIS MORNING ON THE W
SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH. MOST GUIDANCE PROGS LOW STRATUS FORMING BY
DAYBREAK...WITH CONSENSUS NOW SUGGESTING IT WILL BOTTOM OUT AT THE
LOW END OF MVFR. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS A STEADY SOUTH WIND SHOULD
KEEP THE SFC LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP IFR AT BAY. THE STRATUS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A HEALTHY CU FIELD QUICKLY
REPLACING IT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER 00Z WHEN SHORTWAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD. PROB30 THUS SHIFTED A BIT TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE... LOOKS LIKE MOST PRECIP WILL REMAIN NEAR KAVL THIS
MORNING WITH LOW CHC ELSEHWERE. CELLS NEARING KAVL RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR AN EARLY TEMPO FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHC FOR
RESTRICTIONS WITH MVFR LIKELY AND IFR POSSIBLE ALL AREAS GIVEN THE
MOIST LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW. THAT SAID...CHC OF CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH GOOD CHC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. PROB30 AND VCTS HAVE BEEN ADDED/ADJUSTED. THE MOIST
LLVL FLOW SHOULD BRING IN LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. THE LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 16-17Z.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY BY LATE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 260227
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...THE REMNANTS OF STRONGER CONVECTION OVER EAST TN
AND NORTH GA ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWFA.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST INTO MORE STABLE
AIR CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER DEWPOINTS. REVISED POPS TO BRING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY TO FALL APART BY THE TIME IT
REACHES I-26. UPDATED T/TD TRENDS OVERNIGHT FROM SHORT TERM
CONSENSUS PRODUCT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPTS.

730 PM UPDATE...THOUGH MOISTURE FLUX OVERNIGHT SHOULD OFFSET
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TO SOME DEGREE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATER TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVES APPEAR TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SO I BACKED OFF POPS EXCEPT NEAR THE SRN FACING BLUE
RIDGE...WHICH IS STILL FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT BY CNVCTN ALLOWING
MODELS.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET LIFTS
NWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW
EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...MOIST LOW LEVEL
SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER
THE MTNS WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE BEST. ANTICIPATE MILD MINS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY
MIXING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO GET OFF
TO A VERY SLOW START ON TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE
INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE MTNS AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AS
CUMULUS FILLS IN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER. ANOTHER SHOT
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SW MTNS ON
TUESDAY AFTN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION GENERATING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE. A SHARP W
TO E GRADIENT IN LATE DAY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF PERSISTING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...ONCE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PW AIR MOVES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...IT WILL
REMAIN THERE...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. WHILE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DIE OFF EACH NIGHT. THAT MIGHT BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS THAT
END RIGHT AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN FROM
THE W AT THAT TIME...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THRU
THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE LEFT WITH A FCST THAT FAVORS
LIKELY POP OVER THE MTNS AND CHANCE POP OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT MIGHT IMPLY A
CONTINUAL THREAT. IN REALITY...THERE WILL BE LONG STRETCHES WHEN
NOTHING HAPPENS...IT IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PASS. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OWING TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS LOBES
OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND NW. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY OVER THE SE REGION THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH UPPER RIDGING WEAKEN A BIT ON
DAYS 6 AND 7. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER SHORTWAVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER WITH ITS APPROACH COMPARED TO THE NEWER RUN OF THE
GFS...HOWEVER THE TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE LESS THAN 24HRS.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST SLY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING EXPECTED ON SAT AND
SUN. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWS AS IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND APPEARS TO ESSENTIALLY LAY UP JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SUN AND MON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PREVENTS IT FROM MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MISS RIVER VALLEY ON SUN...YET IT BECOMES REABSORBED BACK INTO THE
BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO. AT PRESENT...THE ECMWF IS
LESS BULLISH WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TS EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON SAT AND SUN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
UNLIKELY WITH WEAK SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT ON W SIDE OF
BERMUDA HIGH. MOST GUIDANCE PROGS LOW STRATUS FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CONSENSUS NOW SUGGESTING IT WILL BOTTOM OUT AT THE
LOW END OF MVFR. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS A STEADY SOUTH WIND SHOULD
KEEP THE SFC LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP IFR AT BAY. THE STRATUS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A HEALTHY CU FIELD QUICKLY
REPLACING IT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER 00Z WHEN SHORTWAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD. PROB30 THUS SHIFTED A BIT TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE... A CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS THIS PERIOD IS HOW BEST TO
REPRESENT THE RATHER PERSISTENT PRECIP CHANCES AT THE SC SITES AND
KAVL. LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF EAST TN
AND NRN GA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR. BY LATE EVENING A FEW SHRA OR EVEN
TSRA COULD ENCROACH ON THE WRN SITES. USED MAINLY VCSH/VCTS TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. ALSO...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS
LATER IN THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER WITH CHANCES STILL BEING LOW AT THE TAF SITES JUST A VC
MENTION HAS BEEN MADE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THE CHC WAS GOOD ENOUGH
FOR A TEMPO. THE SAME MOIST LLVL FLOW SHOULD BRING IN LOW MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. A RELATIVE LULL
IN PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR FROM AROUND DAYBREAK UNTIL MIDDAY
TUE. CIGS COULD EVEN DROP SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTER DAYBREAK. THE LOW
CIGS SHOULD HAVE MIXED OUT ENOUGH BY 16-17Z TO ALLOW SFC HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. PROB30 USED TO HIGHLIGHT THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%     MED   74%     HIGH  97%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 260227
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...THE REMNANTS OF STRONGER CONVECTION OVER EAST TN
AND NORTH GA ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWFA.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST INTO MORE STABLE
AIR CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER DEWPOINTS. REVISED POPS TO BRING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY TO FALL APART BY THE TIME IT
REACHES I-26. UPDATED T/TD TRENDS OVERNIGHT FROM SHORT TERM
CONSENSUS PRODUCT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPTS.

730 PM UPDATE...THOUGH MOISTURE FLUX OVERNIGHT SHOULD OFFSET
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TO SOME DEGREE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATER TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVES APPEAR TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SO I BACKED OFF POPS EXCEPT NEAR THE SRN FACING BLUE
RIDGE...WHICH IS STILL FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT BY CNVCTN ALLOWING
MODELS.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET LIFTS
NWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW
EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...MOIST LOW LEVEL
SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER
THE MTNS WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE BEST. ANTICIPATE MILD MINS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY
MIXING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO GET OFF
TO A VERY SLOW START ON TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE
INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE MTNS AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AS
CUMULUS FILLS IN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER. ANOTHER SHOT
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SW MTNS ON
TUESDAY AFTN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION GENERATING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE. A SHARP W
TO E GRADIENT IN LATE DAY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF PERSISTING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...ONCE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PW AIR MOVES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...IT WILL
REMAIN THERE...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. WHILE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DIE OFF EACH NIGHT. THAT MIGHT BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS THAT
END RIGHT AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN FROM
THE W AT THAT TIME...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THRU
THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE LEFT WITH A FCST THAT FAVORS
LIKELY POP OVER THE MTNS AND CHANCE POP OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT MIGHT IMPLY A
CONTINUAL THREAT. IN REALITY...THERE WILL BE LONG STRETCHES WHEN
NOTHING HAPPENS...IT IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PASS. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OWING TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS LOBES
OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND NW. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY OVER THE SE REGION THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH UPPER RIDGING WEAKEN A BIT ON
DAYS 6 AND 7. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER SHORTWAVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER WITH ITS APPROACH COMPARED TO THE NEWER RUN OF THE
GFS...HOWEVER THE TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE LESS THAN 24HRS.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST SLY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING EXPECTED ON SAT AND
SUN. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWS AS IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND APPEARS TO ESSENTIALLY LAY UP JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SUN AND MON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PREVENTS IT FROM MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MISS RIVER VALLEY ON SUN...YET IT BECOMES REABSORBED BACK INTO THE
BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO. AT PRESENT...THE ECMWF IS
LESS BULLISH WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TS EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON SAT AND SUN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
UNLIKELY WITH WEAK SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT ON W SIDE OF
BERMUDA HIGH. MOST GUIDANCE PROGS LOW STRATUS FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CONSENSUS NOW SUGGESTING IT WILL BOTTOM OUT AT THE
LOW END OF MVFR. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS A STEADY SOUTH WIND SHOULD
KEEP THE SFC LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP IFR AT BAY. THE STRATUS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A HEALTHY CU FIELD QUICKLY
REPLACING IT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER 00Z WHEN SHORTWAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD. PROB30 THUS SHIFTED A BIT TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE... A CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS THIS PERIOD IS HOW BEST TO
REPRESENT THE RATHER PERSISTENT PRECIP CHANCES AT THE SC SITES AND
KAVL. LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF EAST TN
AND NRN GA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR. BY LATE EVENING A FEW SHRA OR EVEN
TSRA COULD ENCROACH ON THE WRN SITES. USED MAINLY VCSH/VCTS TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. ALSO...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS
LATER IN THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER WITH CHANCES STILL BEING LOW AT THE TAF SITES JUST A VC
MENTION HAS BEEN MADE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THE CHC WAS GOOD ENOUGH
FOR A TEMPO. THE SAME MOIST LLVL FLOW SHOULD BRING IN LOW MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. A RELATIVE LULL
IN PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR FROM AROUND DAYBREAK UNTIL MIDDAY
TUE. CIGS COULD EVEN DROP SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTER DAYBREAK. THE LOW
CIGS SHOULD HAVE MIXED OUT ENOUGH BY 16-17Z TO ALLOW SFC HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. PROB30 USED TO HIGHLIGHT THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%     MED   74%     HIGH  97%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260004
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
804 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE WRN UPSTATE FROM
GEORGIA...BUT HAVE APPEARED TO STRUGGLE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE
VALUES SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER OVER OUR CWFA COMPARED TO AREAS SOUTH AND
WEST WHERE ACTIVITY IS ONGOING. THE SEMI-ORGANIZED LINES OF ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING EWD OUT OF TN AND GA ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO STRUGGLE AS
THEY CROSS INTO OUR CWFA. THOUGH MOISTURE FLUX OVERNIGHT SHOULD
OFFSET NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TO SOME DEGREE...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVES APPEAR TO BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO I BACKED OFF POPS EXCEPT NEAR THE SRN FACING
BLUE RIDGE...WHICH IS STILL FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT BY CNVCTN
ALLOWING MODELS. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ANY CELLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENING/S ACTIVITY MIGHT SERVE TO FOCUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER WHEN THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET LIFTS
NWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW
EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...MOIST LOW LEVEL
SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER
THE MTNS WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE BEST. ANTICIPATE MILD MINS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY
MIXING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO GET OFF
TO A VERY SLOW START ON TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE
INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE MTNS AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AS
CUMULUS FILLS IN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER. ANOTHER SHOT
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SW MTNS ON
TUESDAY AFTN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION GENERATING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE. A SHARP W
TO E GRADIENT IN LATE DAY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF PERSISTING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...ONCE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PW AIR MOVES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...IT WILL
REMAIN THERE...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. WHILE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DIE OFF EACH NIGHT. THAT MIGHT BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS THAT
END RIGHT AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN FROM
THE W AT THAT TIME...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THRU
THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE LEFT WITH A FCST THAT FAVORS
LIKELY POP OVER THE MTNS AND CHANCE POP OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT MIGHT IMPLY A
CONTINUAL THREAT. IN REALITY...THERE WILL BE LONG STRETCHES WHEN
NOTHING HAPPENS...IT IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PASS. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OWING TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS LOBES
OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND NW. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY OVER THE SE REGION THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH UPPER RIDGING WEAKEN A BIT ON
DAYS 6 AND 7. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER SHORTWAVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER WITH ITS APPROACH COMPARED TO THE NEWER RUN OF THE
GFS...HOWEVER THE TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE LESS THAN 24HRS.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST SLY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING EXPECTED ON SAT AND
SUN. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWS AS IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND APPEARS TO ESSENTIALLY LAY UP JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SUN AND MON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PREVENTS IT FROM MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MISS RIVER VALLEY ON SUN...YET IT BECOMES REABSORBED BACK INTO THE
BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO. AT PRESENT...THE ECMWF IS
LESS BULLISH WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TS EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON SAT AND SUN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
UNLIKELY WITH WEAK SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT ON W SIDE OF
BERMUDA HIGH. MOST GUIDANCE PROGS LOW STRATUS FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CONSENSUS NOW SUGGESTING IT WILL BOTTOM OUT AT THE
LOW END OF MVFR. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS A STEADY SOUTH WIND SHOULD
KEEP THE SFC LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP IFR AT BAY. THE STRATUS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A HEALTHY CU FIELD QUICKLY
REPLACING IT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER 00Z WHEN SHORTWAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD. PROB30 THUS SHIFTED A BIT TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE... A CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS THIS PERIOD IS HOW BEST TO
REPRESENT THE RATHER PERSISTENT PRECIP CHANCES AT THE SC SITES AND
KAVL. LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF EAST TN
AND NRN GA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR. BY LATE EVENING A FEW SHRA OR EVEN
TSRA COULD ENCROACH ON THE WRN SITES. USED MAINLY VCSH/VCTS TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. ALSO...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS
LATER IN THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER WITH CHANCES STILL BEING LOW AT THE TAF SITES JUST A VC
MENTION HAS BEEN MADE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THE CHC WAS GOOD ENOUGH
FOR A TEMPO. THE SAME MOIST LLVL FLOW SHOULD BRING IN LOW MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. A RELATIVE LULL
IN PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR FROM AROUND DAYBREAK UNTIL MIDDAY
TUE. CIGS COULD EVEN DROP SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTER DAYBREAK. THE LOW
CIGS SHOULD HAVE MIXED OUT ENOUGH BY 16-17Z TO ALLOW SFC HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. PROB30 USED TO HIGHLIGHT THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  92%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260004
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
804 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE WRN UPSTATE FROM
GEORGIA...BUT HAVE APPEARED TO STRUGGLE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE
VALUES SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER OVER OUR CWFA COMPARED TO AREAS SOUTH AND
WEST WHERE ACTIVITY IS ONGOING. THE SEMI-ORGANIZED LINES OF ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING EWD OUT OF TN AND GA ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO STRUGGLE AS
THEY CROSS INTO OUR CWFA. THOUGH MOISTURE FLUX OVERNIGHT SHOULD
OFFSET NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TO SOME DEGREE...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVES APPEAR TO BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO I BACKED OFF POPS EXCEPT NEAR THE SRN FACING
BLUE RIDGE...WHICH IS STILL FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT BY CNVCTN
ALLOWING MODELS. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ANY CELLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENING/S ACTIVITY MIGHT SERVE TO FOCUS
DEVELOPMENT LATER WHEN THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET LIFTS
NWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW
EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...MOIST LOW LEVEL
SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER
THE MTNS WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE BEST. ANTICIPATE MILD MINS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY
MIXING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO GET OFF
TO A VERY SLOW START ON TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE
INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE MTNS AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AS
CUMULUS FILLS IN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER. ANOTHER SHOT
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SW MTNS ON
TUESDAY AFTN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION GENERATING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE. A SHARP W
TO E GRADIENT IN LATE DAY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF PERSISTING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...ONCE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PW AIR MOVES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...IT WILL
REMAIN THERE...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. WHILE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DIE OFF EACH NIGHT. THAT MIGHT BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS THAT
END RIGHT AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN FROM
THE W AT THAT TIME...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THRU
THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE LEFT WITH A FCST THAT FAVORS
LIKELY POP OVER THE MTNS AND CHANCE POP OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT MIGHT IMPLY A
CONTINUAL THREAT. IN REALITY...THERE WILL BE LONG STRETCHES WHEN
NOTHING HAPPENS...IT IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PASS. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OWING TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS LOBES
OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND NW. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY OVER THE SE REGION THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH UPPER RIDGING WEAKEN A BIT ON
DAYS 6 AND 7. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER SHORTWAVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER WITH ITS APPROACH COMPARED TO THE NEWER RUN OF THE
GFS...HOWEVER THE TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE LESS THAN 24HRS.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST SLY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING EXPECTED ON SAT AND
SUN. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWS AS IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND APPEARS TO ESSENTIALLY LAY UP JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SUN AND MON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PREVENTS IT FROM MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MISS RIVER VALLEY ON SUN...YET IT BECOMES REABSORBED BACK INTO THE
BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO. AT PRESENT...THE ECMWF IS
LESS BULLISH WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TS EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON SAT AND SUN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
UNLIKELY WITH WEAK SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT ON W SIDE OF
BERMUDA HIGH. MOST GUIDANCE PROGS LOW STRATUS FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CONSENSUS NOW SUGGESTING IT WILL BOTTOM OUT AT THE
LOW END OF MVFR. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS A STEADY SOUTH WIND SHOULD
KEEP THE SFC LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP IFR AT BAY. THE STRATUS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A HEALTHY CU FIELD QUICKLY
REPLACING IT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER 00Z WHEN SHORTWAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD. PROB30 THUS SHIFTED A BIT TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE... A CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS THIS PERIOD IS HOW BEST TO
REPRESENT THE RATHER PERSISTENT PRECIP CHANCES AT THE SC SITES AND
KAVL. LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF EAST TN
AND NRN GA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR. BY LATE EVENING A FEW SHRA OR EVEN
TSRA COULD ENCROACH ON THE WRN SITES. USED MAINLY VCSH/VCTS TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. ALSO...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS
LATER IN THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER WITH CHANCES STILL BEING LOW AT THE TAF SITES JUST A VC
MENTION HAS BEEN MADE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THE CHC WAS GOOD ENOUGH
FOR A TEMPO. THE SAME MOIST LLVL FLOW SHOULD BRING IN LOW MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. A RELATIVE LULL
IN PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR FROM AROUND DAYBREAK UNTIL MIDDAY
TUE. CIGS COULD EVEN DROP SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTER DAYBREAK. THE LOW
CIGS SHOULD HAVE MIXED OUT ENOUGH BY 16-17Z TO ALLOW SFC HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. PROB30 USED TO HIGHLIGHT THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  92%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 252052
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
452 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...WITH ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS PRESENT OVER NORTH GA AND
LAPS ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING ONLY LOW CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...BACKED OFF POPS LATE THIS AFTN. MESO MODELS
AND NEW NAM STILL KEY ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS EVENING...SO
RETAINED EVENING POPS AS IS.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA LATE THIS AFTN...BUT REGIONAL RADARS REMAIN QUIET GIVEN
THE WEAK CAPPING ALOFT AND LIMITED TRIGGERS. THE CAP WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH OVER WRN SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND SRLY UPSLOPE
SHOULD GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN SW SECTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET LIFTS NWD ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW EAST OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...MOIST LOW LEVEL SRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE
MTNS WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE BEST. ANTICIPATE MILD MINS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY MIXING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO GET OFF
TO A VERY SLOW START ON TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE
INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE MTNS AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AS
CUMULUS FILLS IN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER. ANOTHER SHOT
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SW MTNS ON
TUESDAY AFTN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION GENERATING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE. A SHARP W
TO E GRADIENT IN LATE DAY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF PERSISTING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...ONCE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PW AIR MOVES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...IT WILL
REMAIN THERE...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. WHILE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DIE OFF EACH NIGHT. THAT MIGHT BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS THAT
END RIGHT AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN FROM
THE W AT THAT TIME...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THRU
THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE LEFT WITH A FCST THAT FAVORS
LIKELY POP OVER THE MTNS AND CHANCE POP OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT MIGHT IMPLY A
CONTINUAL THREAT. IN REALITY...THERE WILL BE LONG STRETCHES WHEN
NOTHING HAPPENS...IT IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PASS. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OWING TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS LOBES
OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND NW. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY OVER THE SE REGION THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH UPPER RIDGING WEAKEN A BIT ON
DAYS 6 AND 7. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER SHORTWAVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER WITH ITS APPROACH COMPARED TO THE NEWER RUN OF THE
GFS...HOWEVER THE TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE LESS THAN 24HRS.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST SLY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING EXPECTED ON SAT AND
SUN. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWS AS IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND APPEARS TO ESSENTIALLY LAY UP JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SUN AND MON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PREVENTS IT FROM MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MISS RIVER VALLEY ON SUN...YET IT BECOMES REABSORBED BACK INTO THE
BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO. AT PRESENT...THE ECMWF IS
LESS BULLISH WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TS EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON SAT AND SUN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
UNLIKELY WITH WEAK SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
21Z KCLT UPDATE...THOUGH WIND OBS HAVE BEEN VRB OCCASIONALLY DUE TO
INFLUENCE OF WEAK SFC LOW PASSING OVER ERN KY...S TO SSW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. THUS WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN TAF. BASED ON LATEST HRLY
GUIDANCE...NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT CIGS WILL ARRIVE BY 06Z. BUT WILL
AWAIT MORE GUIDANCE BEFORE DELAYING THE RESTRICTIONS...AND GIVE FULL
TREATMENT FOR 00Z.

AT KCLT...CCL HEIGHTS AND IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MAINLY BROKEN CUMULUS AT 4500 TO 5 KFT THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE CUMULUS FIELD WEAKENS LATE THIS
EVENING...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FILL IN
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH IFR QUITE POSSIBLE LEADING
UP TO DAYBREAK. THE GFS/LAMP ARE MORE BULLISH ON THE IFR
CLOUDS...WHILE THE NAM HAS MORE SRLY FLOW MIXING AND CONTINUED
MVFR...BUT THE SFC WINDS ON THE NAM MAY BE TOO ROBUST. WILL THUS
CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IFR TOWARD
09Z. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE AIRFIELD AS A WEAK
MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STEADY
SRLY SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DURING PERIODS OF DEEPER
MIXING...BUT GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH ONLY INFREQUENT LOW END
GUSTS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY LOWER VFR CIGS WITH CUMULUS FROM HEATING
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MOIST SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS
TO FILL BACK IN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR LIKELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANY UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS WILL BE
GENERALLY ISOLD TO SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COVERAGE COULD
ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS BETTER UPPER SUPPORT SWINGS OVER THE
MTN CHAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF VCSH AND TARGETED PROB30 FOR
THE BEST CHANCE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE...WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT SRLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT...WITH OCNL LOW END
GUSTS THIS AFTN AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     MED   70%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG/WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 252052
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
452 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...WITH ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS PRESENT OVER NORTH GA AND
LAPS ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING ONLY LOW CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...BACKED OFF POPS LATE THIS AFTN. MESO MODELS
AND NEW NAM STILL KEY ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS EVENING...SO
RETAINED EVENING POPS AS IS.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA LATE THIS AFTN...BUT REGIONAL RADARS REMAIN QUIET GIVEN
THE WEAK CAPPING ALOFT AND LIMITED TRIGGERS. THE CAP WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH OVER WRN SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND SRLY UPSLOPE
SHOULD GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN SW SECTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET LIFTS NWD ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW EAST OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...MOIST LOW LEVEL SRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE
MTNS WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE BEST. ANTICIPATE MILD MINS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY MIXING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO GET OFF
TO A VERY SLOW START ON TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE
INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE MTNS AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AS
CUMULUS FILLS IN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER. ANOTHER SHOT
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SW MTNS ON
TUESDAY AFTN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION GENERATING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE. A SHARP W
TO E GRADIENT IN LATE DAY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF PERSISTING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...ONCE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PW AIR MOVES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...IT WILL
REMAIN THERE...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. WHILE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DIE OFF EACH NIGHT. THAT MIGHT BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS THAT
END RIGHT AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN FROM
THE W AT THAT TIME...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THRU
THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE LEFT WITH A FCST THAT FAVORS
LIKELY POP OVER THE MTNS AND CHANCE POP OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT MIGHT IMPLY A
CONTINUAL THREAT. IN REALITY...THERE WILL BE LONG STRETCHES WHEN
NOTHING HAPPENS...IT IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PASS. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OWING TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS LOBES
OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND NW. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY OVER THE SE REGION THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH UPPER RIDGING WEAKEN A BIT ON
DAYS 6 AND 7. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER SHORTWAVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER WITH ITS APPROACH COMPARED TO THE NEWER RUN OF THE
GFS...HOWEVER THE TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE LESS THAN 24HRS.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST SLY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING EXPECTED ON SAT AND
SUN. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWS AS IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND APPEARS TO ESSENTIALLY LAY UP JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SUN AND MON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PREVENTS IT FROM MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MISS RIVER VALLEY ON SUN...YET IT BECOMES REABSORBED BACK INTO THE
BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO. AT PRESENT...THE ECMWF IS
LESS BULLISH WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TS EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON SAT AND SUN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
UNLIKELY WITH WEAK SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
21Z KCLT UPDATE...THOUGH WIND OBS HAVE BEEN VRB OCCASIONALLY DUE TO
INFLUENCE OF WEAK SFC LOW PASSING OVER ERN KY...S TO SSW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. THUS WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN TAF. BASED ON LATEST HRLY
GUIDANCE...NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT CIGS WILL ARRIVE BY 06Z. BUT WILL
AWAIT MORE GUIDANCE BEFORE DELAYING THE RESTRICTIONS...AND GIVE FULL
TREATMENT FOR 00Z.

AT KCLT...CCL HEIGHTS AND IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MAINLY BROKEN CUMULUS AT 4500 TO 5 KFT THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE CUMULUS FIELD WEAKENS LATE THIS
EVENING...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FILL IN
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH IFR QUITE POSSIBLE LEADING
UP TO DAYBREAK. THE GFS/LAMP ARE MORE BULLISH ON THE IFR
CLOUDS...WHILE THE NAM HAS MORE SRLY FLOW MIXING AND CONTINUED
MVFR...BUT THE SFC WINDS ON THE NAM MAY BE TOO ROBUST. WILL THUS
CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IFR TOWARD
09Z. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE AIRFIELD AS A WEAK
MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STEADY
SRLY SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DURING PERIODS OF DEEPER
MIXING...BUT GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH ONLY INFREQUENT LOW END
GUSTS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY LOWER VFR CIGS WITH CUMULUS FROM HEATING
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MOIST SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS
TO FILL BACK IN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR LIKELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANY UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS WILL BE
GENERALLY ISOLD TO SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COVERAGE COULD
ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS BETTER UPPER SUPPORT SWINGS OVER THE
MTN CHAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF VCSH AND TARGETED PROB30 FOR
THE BEST CHANCE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE...WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT SRLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT...WITH OCNL LOW END
GUSTS THIS AFTN AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     MED   70%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG/WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 251836
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA LATE THIS AFTN...BUT REGIONAL RADARS REMAIN QUIET GIVEN
THE WEAK CAPPING ALOFT AND LIMITED TRIGGERS. THE CAP WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH OVER WRN SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND SRLY UPSLOPE
SHOULD GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN SW SECTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET LIFTS NWD ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW EAST OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...MOIST LOW LEVEL SRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE
MTNS WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE BEST. ANTICIPATE MILD MINS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY MIXING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO GET OFF
TO A VERY SLOW START ON TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE
INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE MTNS AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AS
CUMULUS FILLS IN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER. ANOTHER SHOT
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SW MTNS ON
TUESDAY AFTN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION GENERATING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE. A SHARP W
TO E GRADIENT IN LATE DAY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF PERSISTING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...ONCE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PW AIR MOVES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...IT WILL
REMAIN THERE...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. WHILE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DIE OFF EACH NIGHT. THAT MIGHT BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS THAT
END RIGHT AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN FROM
THE W AT THAT TIME...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THRU
THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE LEFT WITH A FCST THAT FAVORS
LIKELY POP OVER THE MTNS AND CHANCE POP OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT MIGHT IMPLY A
CONTINUAL THREAT. IN REALITY...THERE WILL BE LONG STRETCHES WHEN
NOTHING HAPPENS...IT IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PASS. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OWING TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS LOBES
OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND NW. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY OVER THE SE REGION THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH UPPER RIDGING WEAKEN A BIT ON
DAYS 6 AND 7. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER SHORTWAVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER WITH ITS APPROACH COMPARED TO THE NEWER RUN OF THE
GFS...HOWEVER THE TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE LESS THAN 24HRS.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST SLY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING EXPECTED ON SAT AND
SUN. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWS AS IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND APPEARS TO ESSENTIALLY LAY UP JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SUN AND MON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PREVENTS IT FROM MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MISS RIVER VALLEY ON SUN...YET IT BECOMES REABSORBED BACK INTO THE
BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO. AT PRESENT...THE ECMWF IS
LESS BULLISH WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TS EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON SAT AND SUN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
UNLIKELY WITH WEAK SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CCL HEIGHTS AND IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MAINLY BROKEN CUMULUS AT 4500 TO 5 KFT THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE CUMULUS FIELD WEAKENS LATE THIS
EVENING...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FILL IN
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH IFR QUITE POSSIBLE LEADING
UP TO DAYBREAK. THE GFS/LAMP ARE MORE BULLISH ON THE IFR
CLOUDS...WHILE THE NAM HAS MORE SRLY FLOW MIXING AND CONTINUED
MVFR...BUT THE SFC WINDS ON THE NAM MAY BE TOO ROBUST. WILL THUS
CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IFR TOWARD
09Z. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE AIRFIELD AS A WEAK
MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STEADY
SRLY SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DURING PERIODS OF DEEPER
MIXING...BUT GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH ONLY INFREQUENT LOW END
GUSTS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY LOWER VFR CIGS WITH CUMULUS FROM HEATING
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MOIST SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS
TO FILL BACK IN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR LIKELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANY UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS WILL BE
GENERALLY ISOLD TO SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COVERAGE COULD
ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS BETTER UPPER SUPPORT SWINGS OVER THE
MTN CHAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF VCSH AND TARGETED PROB30 FOR
THE BEST CHANCE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE...WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT SRLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT...WITH OCNL LOW END
GUSTS THIS AFTN AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 251836
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA LATE THIS AFTN...BUT REGIONAL RADARS REMAIN QUIET GIVEN
THE WEAK CAPPING ALOFT AND LIMITED TRIGGERS. THE CAP WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH OVER WRN SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND SRLY UPSLOPE
SHOULD GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN SW SECTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET LIFTS NWD ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW EAST OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...MOIST LOW LEVEL SRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE
MTNS WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE BEST. ANTICIPATE MILD MINS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY MIXING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO GET OFF
TO A VERY SLOW START ON TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE
INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE MTNS AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AS
CUMULUS FILLS IN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER. ANOTHER SHOT
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SW MTNS ON
TUESDAY AFTN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION GENERATING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE. A SHARP W
TO E GRADIENT IN LATE DAY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF PERSISTING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...ONCE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PW AIR MOVES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...IT WILL
REMAIN THERE...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. WHILE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DIE OFF EACH NIGHT. THAT MIGHT BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS THAT
END RIGHT AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN FROM
THE W AT THAT TIME...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THRU
THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE LEFT WITH A FCST THAT FAVORS
LIKELY POP OVER THE MTNS AND CHANCE POP OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT MIGHT IMPLY A
CONTINUAL THREAT. IN REALITY...THERE WILL BE LONG STRETCHES WHEN
NOTHING HAPPENS...IT IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PASS. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OWING TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS LOBES
OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND NW. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY OVER THE SE REGION THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH UPPER RIDGING WEAKEN A BIT ON
DAYS 6 AND 7. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER SHORTWAVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER WITH ITS APPROACH COMPARED TO THE NEWER RUN OF THE
GFS...HOWEVER THE TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE LESS THAN 24HRS.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST SLY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING EXPECTED ON SAT AND
SUN. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWS AS IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND APPEARS TO ESSENTIALLY LAY UP JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SUN AND MON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PREVENTS IT FROM MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MISS RIVER VALLEY ON SUN...YET IT BECOMES REABSORBED BACK INTO THE
BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO. AT PRESENT...THE ECMWF IS
LESS BULLISH WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TS EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON SAT AND SUN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
UNLIKELY WITH WEAK SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CCL HEIGHTS AND IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MAINLY BROKEN CUMULUS AT 4500 TO 5 KFT THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE CUMULUS FIELD WEAKENS LATE THIS
EVENING...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FILL IN
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH IFR QUITE POSSIBLE LEADING
UP TO DAYBREAK. THE GFS/LAMP ARE MORE BULLISH ON THE IFR
CLOUDS...WHILE THE NAM HAS MORE SRLY FLOW MIXING AND CONTINUED
MVFR...BUT THE SFC WINDS ON THE NAM MAY BE TOO ROBUST. WILL THUS
CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IFR TOWARD
09Z. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE AIRFIELD AS A WEAK
MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STEADY
SRLY SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DURING PERIODS OF DEEPER
MIXING...BUT GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH ONLY INFREQUENT LOW END
GUSTS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY LOWER VFR CIGS WITH CUMULUS FROM HEATING
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MOIST SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS
TO FILL BACK IN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR LIKELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANY UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS WILL BE
GENERALLY ISOLD TO SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COVERAGE COULD
ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS BETTER UPPER SUPPORT SWINGS OVER THE
MTN CHAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF VCSH AND TARGETED PROB30 FOR
THE BEST CHANCE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE...WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT SRLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT...WITH OCNL LOW END
GUSTS THIS AFTN AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 251836
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA LATE THIS AFTN...BUT REGIONAL RADARS REMAIN QUIET GIVEN
THE WEAK CAPPING ALOFT AND LIMITED TRIGGERS. THE CAP WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH OVER WRN SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND SRLY UPSLOPE
SHOULD GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN SW SECTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET LIFTS NWD ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW EAST OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...MOIST LOW LEVEL SRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE
MTNS WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE BEST. ANTICIPATE MILD MINS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY MIXING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO GET OFF
TO A VERY SLOW START ON TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE
INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE MTNS AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AS
CUMULUS FILLS IN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER. ANOTHER SHOT
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SW MTNS ON
TUESDAY AFTN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION GENERATING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE. A SHARP W
TO E GRADIENT IN LATE DAY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF PERSISTING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...ONCE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PW AIR MOVES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...IT WILL
REMAIN THERE...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. WHILE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DIE OFF EACH NIGHT. THAT MIGHT BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS THAT
END RIGHT AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN FROM
THE W AT THAT TIME...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THRU
THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE LEFT WITH A FCST THAT FAVORS
LIKELY POP OVER THE MTNS AND CHANCE POP OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT MIGHT IMPLY A
CONTINUAL THREAT. IN REALITY...THERE WILL BE LONG STRETCHES WHEN
NOTHING HAPPENS...IT IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PASS. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OWING TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS LOBES
OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND NW. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY OVER THE SE REGION THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH UPPER RIDGING WEAKEN A BIT ON
DAYS 6 AND 7. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER SHORTWAVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER WITH ITS APPROACH COMPARED TO THE NEWER RUN OF THE
GFS...HOWEVER THE TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE LESS THAN 24HRS.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST SLY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING EXPECTED ON SAT AND
SUN. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWS AS IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND APPEARS TO ESSENTIALLY LAY UP JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SUN AND MON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PREVENTS IT FROM MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MISS RIVER VALLEY ON SUN...YET IT BECOMES REABSORBED BACK INTO THE
BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO. AT PRESENT...THE ECMWF IS
LESS BULLISH WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TS EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON SAT AND SUN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
UNLIKELY WITH WEAK SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CCL HEIGHTS AND IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MAINLY BROKEN CUMULUS AT 4500 TO 5 KFT THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE CUMULUS FIELD WEAKENS LATE THIS
EVENING...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FILL IN
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH IFR QUITE POSSIBLE LEADING
UP TO DAYBREAK. THE GFS/LAMP ARE MORE BULLISH ON THE IFR
CLOUDS...WHILE THE NAM HAS MORE SRLY FLOW MIXING AND CONTINUED
MVFR...BUT THE SFC WINDS ON THE NAM MAY BE TOO ROBUST. WILL THUS
CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IFR TOWARD
09Z. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE AIRFIELD AS A WEAK
MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STEADY
SRLY SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DURING PERIODS OF DEEPER
MIXING...BUT GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH ONLY INFREQUENT LOW END
GUSTS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY LOWER VFR CIGS WITH CUMULUS FROM HEATING
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MOIST SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS
TO FILL BACK IN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR LIKELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANY UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS WILL BE
GENERALLY ISOLD TO SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COVERAGE COULD
ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS BETTER UPPER SUPPORT SWINGS OVER THE
MTN CHAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF VCSH AND TARGETED PROB30 FOR
THE BEST CHANCE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE...WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT SRLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT...WITH OCNL LOW END
GUSTS THIS AFTN AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 251836
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA LATE THIS AFTN...BUT REGIONAL RADARS REMAIN QUIET GIVEN
THE WEAK CAPPING ALOFT AND LIMITED TRIGGERS. THE CAP WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH OVER WRN SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND SRLY UPSLOPE
SHOULD GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN SW SECTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET LIFTS NWD ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW EAST OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...MOIST LOW LEVEL SRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE
MTNS WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE BEST. ANTICIPATE MILD MINS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY MIXING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO GET OFF
TO A VERY SLOW START ON TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE
INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE MTNS AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AS
CUMULUS FILLS IN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER. ANOTHER SHOT
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SW MTNS ON
TUESDAY AFTN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION GENERATING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE. A SHARP W
TO E GRADIENT IN LATE DAY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF PERSISTING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...ONCE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PW AIR MOVES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...IT WILL
REMAIN THERE...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. WHILE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DIE OFF EACH NIGHT. THAT MIGHT BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS THAT
END RIGHT AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN FROM
THE W AT THAT TIME...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THRU
THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE LEFT WITH A FCST THAT FAVORS
LIKELY POP OVER THE MTNS AND CHANCE POP OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT MIGHT IMPLY A
CONTINUAL THREAT. IN REALITY...THERE WILL BE LONG STRETCHES WHEN
NOTHING HAPPENS...IT IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PASS. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OWING TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS LOBES
OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND NW. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY OVER THE SE REGION THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH UPPER RIDGING WEAKEN A BIT ON
DAYS 6 AND 7. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER SHORTWAVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER WITH ITS APPROACH COMPARED TO THE NEWER RUN OF THE
GFS...HOWEVER THE TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE LESS THAN 24HRS.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST SLY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING EXPECTED ON SAT AND
SUN. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWS AS IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND APPEARS TO ESSENTIALLY LAY UP JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SUN AND MON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PREVENTS IT FROM MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MISS RIVER VALLEY ON SUN...YET IT BECOMES REABSORBED BACK INTO THE
BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO. AT PRESENT...THE ECMWF IS
LESS BULLISH WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TS EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON SAT AND SUN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
UNLIKELY WITH WEAK SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CCL HEIGHTS AND IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MAINLY BROKEN CUMULUS AT 4500 TO 5 KFT THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE CUMULUS FIELD WEAKENS LATE THIS
EVENING...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FILL IN
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH IFR QUITE POSSIBLE LEADING
UP TO DAYBREAK. THE GFS/LAMP ARE MORE BULLISH ON THE IFR
CLOUDS...WHILE THE NAM HAS MORE SRLY FLOW MIXING AND CONTINUED
MVFR...BUT THE SFC WINDS ON THE NAM MAY BE TOO ROBUST. WILL THUS
CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IFR TOWARD
09Z. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE AIRFIELD AS A WEAK
MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STEADY
SRLY SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DURING PERIODS OF DEEPER
MIXING...BUT GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH ONLY INFREQUENT LOW END
GUSTS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY LOWER VFR CIGS WITH CUMULUS FROM HEATING
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MOIST SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS
TO FILL BACK IN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR LIKELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANY UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS WILL BE
GENERALLY ISOLD TO SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COVERAGE COULD
ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS BETTER UPPER SUPPORT SWINGS OVER THE
MTN CHAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF VCSH AND TARGETED PROB30 FOR
THE BEST CHANCE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE...WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT SRLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT...WITH OCNL LOW END
GUSTS THIS AFTN AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 251753
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA THIS AFTN...BUT REGIONAL RADARS ARE QUIET THUS FAR WITH
SOME CAPPING LINGERING IN THE PROFILES. THE CAP WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH OVER WRN SECTIONS DURING THE LATE AFTN AND SRLY UPSLOPE
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN SW SECTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET LIFTS NWD ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW EAST OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...MOIST LOW LEVEL SRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN THE WRN
HALF DURING THE LESS FAVORED DIURNAL PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE MTNS WHERE COVERAGE WILL
BE BEST. ANTICIPATE MILD MINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY MIXING FLOW.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO GET OFF
TO A VERY SLOW START ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
STRUGGLE INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE MTNS AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTN
VALLEYS...AS CUMULUS FILLS IN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER.
ANOTHER SHOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SW
MTNS ON TUESDAY AFTN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
ENHANCED. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION GENERATING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING
WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS
LATE. A SHARP W TO E GRADIENT IN LATE DAY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF PERSISTING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...ONCE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PW AIR MOVES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...IT WILL
REMAIN THERE...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. WHILE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DIE OFF EACH NIGHT. THAT MIGHT BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS THAT
END RIGHT AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN FROM
THE W AT THAT TIME...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THRU
THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE LEFT WITH A FCST THAT FAVORS
LIKELY POP OVER THE MTNS AND CHANCE POP OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT MIGHT IMPLY A
CONTINUAL THREAT. IN REALITY...THERE WILL BE LONG STRETCHES WHEN
NOTHING HAPPENS...IT IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PASS. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OWING TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACRS THE REGION SOMEWHAT
BY FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND
HUMID...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL POPS (LIKELY MTNS AND CHC PIEDMONT) ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THEN TEMPS WARM A CATEGORY OR TWO FURTHER UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH POPS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CCL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS AT 45 TO 50 KFT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD WEAKENS LATE THIS EVENING...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FILL IN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
IFR QUITE POSSIBLE LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK. THE GFS/LAMP ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE IFR CLOUDS...WHILE THE NAM HAS MORE SRLY FLOW MIXING
AND CONTINUED MVFR...BUT THE SFC WINDS ON THE NAM MAY BE TOO ROBUST.
WILL THUS CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IFR
TOWARD 09Z. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE AIRFIELD AS
A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY
STEADY SRLY SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DURING PERIODS OF
DEEPER MIXING...BUT GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH ONLY INFREQUENT LOW
END GUSTS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY LOWER VFR CIGS WITH CUMULUS FROM HEATING
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MOIST SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS
TO FILL BACK IN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR LIKELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANY UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS WILL BE
GENERALLY ISOLD TO SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COVERAGE COULD
ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS BETTER UPPER SUPPORT SWINGS OVER THE
MTN CHAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF VCSH AND TARGETED PROB30 FOR
THE BEST CHANCE PERIODS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE...WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT SRLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT...WITH OCNL LOW END
GUSTS THIS AFTN AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK/HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 251753
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA THIS AFTN...BUT REGIONAL RADARS ARE QUIET THUS FAR WITH
SOME CAPPING LINGERING IN THE PROFILES. THE CAP WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH OVER WRN SECTIONS DURING THE LATE AFTN AND SRLY UPSLOPE
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN SW SECTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET LIFTS NWD ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW EAST OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...MOIST LOW LEVEL SRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN THE WRN
HALF DURING THE LESS FAVORED DIURNAL PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE MTNS WHERE COVERAGE WILL
BE BEST. ANTICIPATE MILD MINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY MIXING FLOW.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO GET OFF
TO A VERY SLOW START ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
STRUGGLE INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE MTNS AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTN
VALLEYS...AS CUMULUS FILLS IN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER.
ANOTHER SHOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SW
MTNS ON TUESDAY AFTN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
ENHANCED. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION GENERATING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING
WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS
LATE. A SHARP W TO E GRADIENT IN LATE DAY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF PERSISTING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...ONCE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PW AIR MOVES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...IT WILL
REMAIN THERE...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. WHILE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DIE OFF EACH NIGHT. THAT MIGHT BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS THAT
END RIGHT AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN FROM
THE W AT THAT TIME...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THRU
THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE LEFT WITH A FCST THAT FAVORS
LIKELY POP OVER THE MTNS AND CHANCE POP OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT MIGHT IMPLY A
CONTINUAL THREAT. IN REALITY...THERE WILL BE LONG STRETCHES WHEN
NOTHING HAPPENS...IT IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PASS. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OWING TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACRS THE REGION SOMEWHAT
BY FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND
HUMID...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL POPS (LIKELY MTNS AND CHC PIEDMONT) ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THEN TEMPS WARM A CATEGORY OR TWO FURTHER UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH POPS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CCL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS AT 45 TO 50 KFT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD WEAKENS LATE THIS EVENING...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FILL IN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
IFR QUITE POSSIBLE LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK. THE GFS/LAMP ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE IFR CLOUDS...WHILE THE NAM HAS MORE SRLY FLOW MIXING
AND CONTINUED MVFR...BUT THE SFC WINDS ON THE NAM MAY BE TOO ROBUST.
WILL THUS CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IFR
TOWARD 09Z. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE AIRFIELD AS
A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY
STEADY SRLY SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DURING PERIODS OF
DEEPER MIXING...BUT GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH ONLY INFREQUENT LOW
END GUSTS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY LOWER VFR CIGS WITH CUMULUS FROM HEATING
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MOIST SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS
TO FILL BACK IN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR LIKELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANY UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS WILL BE
GENERALLY ISOLD TO SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COVERAGE COULD
ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS BETTER UPPER SUPPORT SWINGS OVER THE
MTN CHAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF VCSH AND TARGETED PROB30 FOR
THE BEST CHANCE PERIODS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE...WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT SRLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT...WITH OCNL LOW END
GUSTS THIS AFTN AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK/HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 251753
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA THIS AFTN...BUT REGIONAL RADARS ARE QUIET THUS FAR WITH
SOME CAPPING LINGERING IN THE PROFILES. THE CAP WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH OVER WRN SECTIONS DURING THE LATE AFTN AND SRLY UPSLOPE
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN SW SECTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET LIFTS NWD ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW EAST OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...MOIST LOW LEVEL SRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN THE WRN
HALF DURING THE LESS FAVORED DIURNAL PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE MTNS WHERE COVERAGE WILL
BE BEST. ANTICIPATE MILD MINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY MIXING FLOW.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO GET OFF
TO A VERY SLOW START ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
STRUGGLE INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE MTNS AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTN
VALLEYS...AS CUMULUS FILLS IN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER.
ANOTHER SHOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SW
MTNS ON TUESDAY AFTN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
ENHANCED. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION GENERATING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING
WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS
LATE. A SHARP W TO E GRADIENT IN LATE DAY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF PERSISTING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...ONCE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PW AIR MOVES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...IT WILL
REMAIN THERE...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. WHILE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DIE OFF EACH NIGHT. THAT MIGHT BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS THAT
END RIGHT AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN FROM
THE W AT THAT TIME...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THRU
THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE LEFT WITH A FCST THAT FAVORS
LIKELY POP OVER THE MTNS AND CHANCE POP OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT MIGHT IMPLY A
CONTINUAL THREAT. IN REALITY...THERE WILL BE LONG STRETCHES WHEN
NOTHING HAPPENS...IT IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PASS. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OWING TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACRS THE REGION SOMEWHAT
BY FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND
HUMID...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL POPS (LIKELY MTNS AND CHC PIEDMONT) ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THEN TEMPS WARM A CATEGORY OR TWO FURTHER UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH POPS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CCL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS AT 45 TO 50 KFT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD WEAKENS LATE THIS EVENING...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FILL IN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
IFR QUITE POSSIBLE LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK. THE GFS/LAMP ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE IFR CLOUDS...WHILE THE NAM HAS MORE SRLY FLOW MIXING
AND CONTINUED MVFR...BUT THE SFC WINDS ON THE NAM MAY BE TOO ROBUST.
WILL THUS CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IFR
TOWARD 09Z. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE AIRFIELD AS
A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY
STEADY SRLY SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DURING PERIODS OF
DEEPER MIXING...BUT GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH ONLY INFREQUENT LOW
END GUSTS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY LOWER VFR CIGS WITH CUMULUS FROM HEATING
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MOIST SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS
TO FILL BACK IN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR LIKELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANY UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS WILL BE
GENERALLY ISOLD TO SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COVERAGE COULD
ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS BETTER UPPER SUPPORT SWINGS OVER THE
MTN CHAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF VCSH AND TARGETED PROB30 FOR
THE BEST CHANCE PERIODS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE...WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT SRLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT...WITH OCNL LOW END
GUSTS THIS AFTN AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK/HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 251753
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA THIS AFTN...BUT REGIONAL RADARS ARE QUIET THUS FAR WITH
SOME CAPPING LINGERING IN THE PROFILES. THE CAP WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH OVER WRN SECTIONS DURING THE LATE AFTN AND SRLY UPSLOPE
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN SW SECTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET LIFTS NWD ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW EAST OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...MOIST LOW LEVEL SRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN THE WRN
HALF DURING THE LESS FAVORED DIURNAL PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE MTNS WHERE COVERAGE WILL
BE BEST. ANTICIPATE MILD MINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY MIXING FLOW.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO GET OFF
TO A VERY SLOW START ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
STRUGGLE INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE MTNS AND UPPER 70S IN THE MTN
VALLEYS...AS CUMULUS FILLS IN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER.
ANOTHER SHOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR SW
MTNS ON TUESDAY AFTN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
ENHANCED. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION GENERATING AHEAD OF THE LIFTING
WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS
LATE. A SHARP W TO E GRADIENT IN LATE DAY POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF PERSISTING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN UPPER TROF DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THUS...ONCE AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PW AIR MOVES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA...IT WILL
REMAIN THERE...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WEAK IMPULSES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. WHILE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DIE OFF EACH NIGHT. THAT MIGHT BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS THAT
END RIGHT AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN FROM
THE W AT THAT TIME...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT FEATURE WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS THRU
THE TUESDAY EVENING HOURS. WE ARE LEFT WITH A FCST THAT FAVORS
LIKELY POP OVER THE MTNS AND CHANCE POP OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT MIGHT IMPLY A
CONTINUAL THREAT. IN REALITY...THERE WILL BE LONG STRETCHES WHEN
NOTHING HAPPENS...IT IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE RIGHT NOW TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PASS. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OWING TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACRS THE REGION SOMEWHAT
BY FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND
HUMID...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL POPS (LIKELY MTNS AND CHC PIEDMONT) ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THEN TEMPS WARM A CATEGORY OR TWO FURTHER UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH POPS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CCL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS AT 45 TO 50 KFT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD WEAKENS LATE THIS EVENING...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO FILL IN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
IFR QUITE POSSIBLE LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK. THE GFS/LAMP ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE IFR CLOUDS...WHILE THE NAM HAS MORE SRLY FLOW MIXING
AND CONTINUED MVFR...BUT THE SFC WINDS ON THE NAM MAY BE TOO ROBUST.
WILL THUS CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IFR
TOWARD 09Z. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE AIRFIELD AS
A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY
STEADY SRLY SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DURING PERIODS OF
DEEPER MIXING...BUT GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH ONLY INFREQUENT LOW
END GUSTS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY LOWER VFR CIGS WITH CUMULUS FROM HEATING
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MOIST SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS
TO FILL BACK IN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR LIKELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANY UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS WILL BE
GENERALLY ISOLD TO SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTN...BUT COVERAGE COULD
ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS BETTER UPPER SUPPORT SWINGS OVER THE
MTN CHAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF VCSH AND TARGETED PROB30 FOR
THE BEST CHANCE PERIODS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE...WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT SRLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT...WITH OCNL LOW END
GUSTS THIS AFTN AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...S TO SW FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED MORNING
STRATUS TO RESULT...WITH BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE A FEW TSTMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK/HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 251450
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1050 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EDT...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
ON THE STRENGTH OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THE LOWER
CLOUD BASES WILL SLOWLY LIFT WITH HEATING BUT BECOME AUGMENTED BY
CONVECTIVE CUMULUS TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDIER THAN NOT AT MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WARMING THICKNESSES WILL PERMIT PLENTY OF
MAXES IN THE 80S THROUGHOUT...WITH UPPER 70S IN MOST MTN VALLEYS.

THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...PARTICULARLY RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR...ARE NOT ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE WEAK CAPPING IN PROFILES TO THE W AND STRONGER
CAPPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME LATE DAY
DEVELOPMENT FORCED MAINLY BY PARCEL LIFTING OVER THE TERRAIN IN SRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. IMPROVING PRECIPITABLE WATER IN PROFILES WILL LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM...BUT
PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CLOUDINESS AROUND.

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION WILL EXHIBIT A MAINLY DIURNAL TREND...IT
COULD WELL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WRN CWFA WHERE
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AXIS OF HIGH
PWAT AIR WILL STALL ACRS THE CWFA...AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE A DE-AMPLIFYING
TROF NUDGES EAST. THE CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HELP
KEEP PWATS HIGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST SNDGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST
PROFILES WITH WEAK SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. UPPER
FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
CROSS THE AREA WITHIN GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO
EXPECT LARGELY DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE MAIN THREAT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHO SOME
LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM THE FOOTHILLS WEST...AND GENERALLY
MID TO HIGH CHC EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR AFTN HIGHS...AND ABOUT 6-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACRS THE REGION SOMEWHAT
BY FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND
HUMID...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL POPS (LIKELY MTNS AND CHC PIEDMONT) ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THEN TEMPS WARM A CATEGORY OR TWO FURTHER UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH POPS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AND EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE CUMULUS
NEAR THE AIRFIELD WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A DECK RIGHT AROUND 3 KFT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH EARLY DAY
HEATING TO BURN OFF CIGS AND KEEP THIS COVERAGE SCATTERED FOR THE
MOST PART...THEN STEADILY RISING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MIXING.
ANTICIPATE STEADY SRLY FLOW AT 8 TO 10 KT...BUT WILL OMIT ANY GUSTS
SINCE THE BETTER SPEEDS ALOFT SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN DUE TO DECENT
CAPPING. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY WEAKEN LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY WRAPPING WEST OF THE PIEDMONT.
THERE SHOULD BE A MUCH BETTER CHC OF RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WITH
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS NEAR MIDNIGHT AND IFR SOON AFTER. SLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LIFT AND SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH
MAINLY CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FILLING BACK IN THROUGH THE AFTN TO
PROVIDE VFR CIGS. PROB30 HAS BEEN RETAINED FOR ALL BUT HKY WHERE
ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED OR TIME CONSTRAINTS DO NOT ALLOW. KAVL TO KAND
COULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA. MVFR CIGS RETURN
ALL AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBY AT KAVL AS WELL. IFR CIGS
DEVELOP SOON AFTER. STEADY S TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE
A FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       MED   63%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       MED   73%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       LOW   55%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   76%
KGMU       MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  80%     HIGH  98%     MED   69%     HIGH  85%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK/HG
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 251450
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1050 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EDT...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
ON THE STRENGTH OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THE LOWER
CLOUD BASES WILL SLOWLY LIFT WITH HEATING BUT BECOME AUGMENTED BY
CONVECTIVE CUMULUS TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDIER THAN NOT AT MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WARMING THICKNESSES WILL PERMIT PLENTY OF
MAXES IN THE 80S THROUGHOUT...WITH UPPER 70S IN MOST MTN VALLEYS.

THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...PARTICULARLY RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR...ARE NOT ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE WEAK CAPPING IN PROFILES TO THE W AND STRONGER
CAPPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME LATE DAY
DEVELOPMENT FORCED MAINLY BY PARCEL LIFTING OVER THE TERRAIN IN SRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. IMPROVING PRECIPITABLE WATER IN PROFILES WILL LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM...BUT
PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CLOUDINESS AROUND.

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION WILL EXHIBIT A MAINLY DIURNAL TREND...IT
COULD WELL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WRN CWFA WHERE
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AXIS OF HIGH
PWAT AIR WILL STALL ACRS THE CWFA...AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE A DE-AMPLIFYING
TROF NUDGES EAST. THE CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HELP
KEEP PWATS HIGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST SNDGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST
PROFILES WITH WEAK SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. UPPER
FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
CROSS THE AREA WITHIN GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO
EXPECT LARGELY DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE MAIN THREAT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHO SOME
LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM THE FOOTHILLS WEST...AND GENERALLY
MID TO HIGH CHC EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR AFTN HIGHS...AND ABOUT 6-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACRS THE REGION SOMEWHAT
BY FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND
HUMID...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL POPS (LIKELY MTNS AND CHC PIEDMONT) ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THEN TEMPS WARM A CATEGORY OR TWO FURTHER UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH POPS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AND EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE CUMULUS
NEAR THE AIRFIELD WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A DECK RIGHT AROUND 3 KFT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH EARLY DAY
HEATING TO BURN OFF CIGS AND KEEP THIS COVERAGE SCATTERED FOR THE
MOST PART...THEN STEADILY RISING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MIXING.
ANTICIPATE STEADY SRLY FLOW AT 8 TO 10 KT...BUT WILL OMIT ANY GUSTS
SINCE THE BETTER SPEEDS ALOFT SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN DUE TO DECENT
CAPPING. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY WEAKEN LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY WRAPPING WEST OF THE PIEDMONT.
THERE SHOULD BE A MUCH BETTER CHC OF RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WITH
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS NEAR MIDNIGHT AND IFR SOON AFTER. SLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LIFT AND SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH
MAINLY CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FILLING BACK IN THROUGH THE AFTN TO
PROVIDE VFR CIGS. PROB30 HAS BEEN RETAINED FOR ALL BUT HKY WHERE
ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED OR TIME CONSTRAINTS DO NOT ALLOW. KAVL TO KAND
COULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA. MVFR CIGS RETURN
ALL AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBY AT KAVL AS WELL. IFR CIGS
DEVELOP SOON AFTER. STEADY S TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE
A FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       MED   63%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       MED   73%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       LOW   55%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   76%
KGMU       MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  80%     HIGH  98%     MED   69%     HIGH  85%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK/HG
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 251450
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1050 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EDT...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
ON THE STRENGTH OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THE LOWER
CLOUD BASES WILL SLOWLY LIFT WITH HEATING BUT BECOME AUGMENTED BY
CONVECTIVE CUMULUS TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDIER THAN NOT AT MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WARMING THICKNESSES WILL PERMIT PLENTY OF
MAXES IN THE 80S THROUGHOUT...WITH UPPER 70S IN MOST MTN VALLEYS.

THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...PARTICULARLY RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR...ARE NOT ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE WEAK CAPPING IN PROFILES TO THE W AND STRONGER
CAPPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME LATE DAY
DEVELOPMENT FORCED MAINLY BY PARCEL LIFTING OVER THE TERRAIN IN SRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. IMPROVING PRECIPITABLE WATER IN PROFILES WILL LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM...BUT
PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CLOUDINESS AROUND.

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION WILL EXHIBIT A MAINLY DIURNAL TREND...IT
COULD WELL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WRN CWFA WHERE
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AXIS OF HIGH
PWAT AIR WILL STALL ACRS THE CWFA...AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE A DE-AMPLIFYING
TROF NUDGES EAST. THE CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HELP
KEEP PWATS HIGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST SNDGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST
PROFILES WITH WEAK SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. UPPER
FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
CROSS THE AREA WITHIN GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO
EXPECT LARGELY DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE MAIN THREAT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHO SOME
LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM THE FOOTHILLS WEST...AND GENERALLY
MID TO HIGH CHC EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR AFTN HIGHS...AND ABOUT 6-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACRS THE REGION SOMEWHAT
BY FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND
HUMID...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL POPS (LIKELY MTNS AND CHC PIEDMONT) ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THEN TEMPS WARM A CATEGORY OR TWO FURTHER UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH POPS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AND EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE CUMULUS
NEAR THE AIRFIELD WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A DECK RIGHT AROUND 3 KFT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH EARLY DAY
HEATING TO BURN OFF CIGS AND KEEP THIS COVERAGE SCATTERED FOR THE
MOST PART...THEN STEADILY RISING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MIXING.
ANTICIPATE STEADY SRLY FLOW AT 8 TO 10 KT...BUT WILL OMIT ANY GUSTS
SINCE THE BETTER SPEEDS ALOFT SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN DUE TO DECENT
CAPPING. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY WEAKEN LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY WRAPPING WEST OF THE PIEDMONT.
THERE SHOULD BE A MUCH BETTER CHC OF RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WITH
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS NEAR MIDNIGHT AND IFR SOON AFTER. SLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LIFT AND SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH
MAINLY CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FILLING BACK IN THROUGH THE AFTN TO
PROVIDE VFR CIGS. PROB30 HAS BEEN RETAINED FOR ALL BUT HKY WHERE
ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED OR TIME CONSTRAINTS DO NOT ALLOW. KAVL TO KAND
COULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA. MVFR CIGS RETURN
ALL AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBY AT KAVL AS WELL. IFR CIGS
DEVELOP SOON AFTER. STEADY S TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE
A FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       MED   63%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       MED   73%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       LOW   55%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   76%
KGMU       MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  80%     HIGH  98%     MED   69%     HIGH  85%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK/HG
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 251450
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1050 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKE ON A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EDT...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
ON THE STRENGTH OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THE LOWER
CLOUD BASES WILL SLOWLY LIFT WITH HEATING BUT BECOME AUGMENTED BY
CONVECTIVE CUMULUS TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDIER THAN NOT AT MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WARMING THICKNESSES WILL PERMIT PLENTY OF
MAXES IN THE 80S THROUGHOUT...WITH UPPER 70S IN MOST MTN VALLEYS.

THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...PARTICULARLY RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR...ARE NOT ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE WEAK CAPPING IN PROFILES TO THE W AND STRONGER
CAPPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME LATE DAY
DEVELOPMENT FORCED MAINLY BY PARCEL LIFTING OVER THE TERRAIN IN SRLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. IMPROVING PRECIPITABLE WATER IN PROFILES WILL LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM...BUT
PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CLOUDINESS AROUND.

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION WILL EXHIBIT A MAINLY DIURNAL TREND...IT
COULD WELL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WRN CWFA WHERE
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AXIS OF HIGH
PWAT AIR WILL STALL ACRS THE CWFA...AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE A DE-AMPLIFYING
TROF NUDGES EAST. THE CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HELP
KEEP PWATS HIGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST SNDGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST
PROFILES WITH WEAK SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. UPPER
FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
CROSS THE AREA WITHIN GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO
EXPECT LARGELY DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE MAIN THREAT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHO SOME
LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM THE FOOTHILLS WEST...AND GENERALLY
MID TO HIGH CHC EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR AFTN HIGHS...AND ABOUT 6-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACRS THE REGION SOMEWHAT
BY FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND
HUMID...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL POPS (LIKELY MTNS AND CHC PIEDMONT) ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THEN TEMPS WARM A CATEGORY OR TWO FURTHER UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH POPS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AND EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE CUMULUS
NEAR THE AIRFIELD WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A DECK RIGHT AROUND 3 KFT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH EARLY DAY
HEATING TO BURN OFF CIGS AND KEEP THIS COVERAGE SCATTERED FOR THE
MOST PART...THEN STEADILY RISING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MIXING.
ANTICIPATE STEADY SRLY FLOW AT 8 TO 10 KT...BUT WILL OMIT ANY GUSTS
SINCE THE BETTER SPEEDS ALOFT SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN DUE TO DECENT
CAPPING. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY WEAKEN LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
WITH ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY WRAPPING WEST OF THE PIEDMONT.
THERE SHOULD BE A MUCH BETTER CHC OF RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WITH
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS NEAR MIDNIGHT AND IFR SOON AFTER. SLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LIFT AND SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH
MAINLY CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FILLING BACK IN THROUGH THE AFTN TO
PROVIDE VFR CIGS. PROB30 HAS BEEN RETAINED FOR ALL BUT HKY WHERE
ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED OR TIME CONSTRAINTS DO NOT ALLOW. KAVL TO KAND
COULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA. MVFR CIGS RETURN
ALL AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBY AT KAVL AS WELL. IFR CIGS
DEVELOP SOON AFTER. STEADY S TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE
A FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       MED   63%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       MED   73%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       LOW   55%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   76%
KGMU       MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  80%     HIGH  98%     MED   69%     HIGH  85%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK/HG
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 251145
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
745 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND TAKE ON
A MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN TODAY.. AND WILL REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN
UPSTATE/NE GA. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THRU THE DAY WITH
CONVECTIVE CU FORMING ALL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOWER COVERAGE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS THE WEST. I-77 CORRIDOR
REMAINS CAPPED WITH NO CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST ON TRACK
WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 255 AM...LOW CLOUDS FINALLY FORMING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR
THE NC/SC BORDER WEST INTO NE GA. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING ACROSS THE MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...AND ALONG AND WEST
OF I-26 ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT
BRING MORE THAN SCT LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THESE AREAS...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THESE SHUD STAY WEST...BUT COULD EXPAND EAST AS
THEY MOVE NORTH. EVEN WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP/MOVE IN...SHUD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOP THRU THE DAY. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA
MOVING EAST TO THE COAST TODAY ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WRN CWFA. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SHUD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND
WEST OF I-26 WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN UPSTATE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT
THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
UNTIL EVENING...WHEN COVERAGE EXPANDS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL...AND IF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT. THAT SAID...ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE I-77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE CONVECTION
SHUD STILL HAVE A DIURNAL COVERAGE TREND...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER
THRU THE NITE ACROSS THE WRN CWFA WHERE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE THRU IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN THO
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE DECENT ACROSS THE WRN CWFA...CHC OF
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEST AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AXIS OF HIGH
PWAT AIR WILL STALL ACRS THE CWFA...AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE A DE-AMPLIFYING
TROF NUDGES EAST. THE CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HELP
KEEP PWATS HIGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST SNDGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST
PROFILES WITH WEAK SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. UPPER
FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
CROSS THE AREA WITHIN GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO
EXPECT LARGELY DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE MAIN THREAT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHO SOME
LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM THE FOOTHILLS WEST...AND GENERALLY
MID TO HIGH CHC EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR AFTN HIGHS...AND ABOUT 6-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACRS THE REGION SOMEWHAT
BY FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND
HUMID...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL POPS (LIKELY MTNS AND CHC PIEDMONT) ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THEN TEMPS WARM A CATEGORY OR TWO FURTHER UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH POPS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...SAT PIX SHOW MVFR CIGS REMAIN WEST OF THE AIRFIELD ATTM.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME LOW VFR
CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD AND THESE COULD MOVE OVER FROM TIME TO
TIME BEFORE CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...CHC
OF CIGS ARE LOW UNTIL THE AFTERNOON CU DEVELOP. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION. MUCH BETTER CHC OF RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT AS
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS NEAR MIDNIGHT AND IFR SOON AFTER. SLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS
THE WRN SITES. THERE IS SOME MVFR NEAR KHKY...BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY
SHUD REMAIN SCT. THAT SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF CIG THIS
MORNING. CIGS SHUD LIFT TO VFR WITH HEATING WHILE DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPS AT KHKY. PROB30 RETAINED FOR ALL BUT HKY WHERE ATMOS
REMAINS CAPPED. MVFR CIGS RETURN ALL AREAS MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBY
AT KAVL AS WELL. IFR CIGS DEVELOP SOON AFTER. S TO SE WINDS THRU THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   64%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   64%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     LOW   48%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 251145
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
745 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND TAKE ON
A MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN TODAY.. AND WILL REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN
UPSTATE/NE GA. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THRU THE DAY WITH
CONVECTIVE CU FORMING ALL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOWER COVERAGE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS THE WEST. I-77 CORRIDOR
REMAINS CAPPED WITH NO CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST ON TRACK
WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 255 AM...LOW CLOUDS FINALLY FORMING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR
THE NC/SC BORDER WEST INTO NE GA. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING ACROSS THE MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...AND ALONG AND WEST
OF I-26 ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT
BRING MORE THAN SCT LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THESE AREAS...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THESE SHUD STAY WEST...BUT COULD EXPAND EAST AS
THEY MOVE NORTH. EVEN WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP/MOVE IN...SHUD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOP THRU THE DAY. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA
MOVING EAST TO THE COAST TODAY ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WRN CWFA. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SHUD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND
WEST OF I-26 WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN UPSTATE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT
THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
UNTIL EVENING...WHEN COVERAGE EXPANDS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL...AND IF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT. THAT SAID...ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE I-77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE CONVECTION
SHUD STILL HAVE A DIURNAL COVERAGE TREND...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER
THRU THE NITE ACROSS THE WRN CWFA WHERE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE THRU IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN THO
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE DECENT ACROSS THE WRN CWFA...CHC OF
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEST AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AXIS OF HIGH
PWAT AIR WILL STALL ACRS THE CWFA...AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE A DE-AMPLIFYING
TROF NUDGES EAST. THE CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HELP
KEEP PWATS HIGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST SNDGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST
PROFILES WITH WEAK SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. UPPER
FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
CROSS THE AREA WITHIN GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO
EXPECT LARGELY DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE MAIN THREAT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHO SOME
LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM THE FOOTHILLS WEST...AND GENERALLY
MID TO HIGH CHC EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR AFTN HIGHS...AND ABOUT 6-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACRS THE REGION SOMEWHAT
BY FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND
HUMID...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL POPS (LIKELY MTNS AND CHC PIEDMONT) ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THEN TEMPS WARM A CATEGORY OR TWO FURTHER UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH POPS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...SAT PIX SHOW MVFR CIGS REMAIN WEST OF THE AIRFIELD ATTM.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME LOW VFR
CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD AND THESE COULD MOVE OVER FROM TIME TO
TIME BEFORE CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...CHC
OF CIGS ARE LOW UNTIL THE AFTERNOON CU DEVELOP. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION. MUCH BETTER CHC OF RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT AS
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS NEAR MIDNIGHT AND IFR SOON AFTER. SLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS
THE WRN SITES. THERE IS SOME MVFR NEAR KHKY...BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY
SHUD REMAIN SCT. THAT SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF CIG THIS
MORNING. CIGS SHUD LIFT TO VFR WITH HEATING WHILE DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPS AT KHKY. PROB30 RETAINED FOR ALL BUT HKY WHERE ATMOS
REMAINS CAPPED. MVFR CIGS RETURN ALL AREAS MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBY
AT KAVL AS WELL. IFR CIGS DEVELOP SOON AFTER. S TO SE WINDS THRU THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   64%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   64%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     LOW   48%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 251145
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
745 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND TAKE ON
A MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN TODAY.. AND WILL REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN
UPSTATE/NE GA. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THRU THE DAY WITH
CONVECTIVE CU FORMING ALL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOWER COVERAGE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS THE WEST. I-77 CORRIDOR
REMAINS CAPPED WITH NO CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST ON TRACK
WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 255 AM...LOW CLOUDS FINALLY FORMING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR
THE NC/SC BORDER WEST INTO NE GA. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING ACROSS THE MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...AND ALONG AND WEST
OF I-26 ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT
BRING MORE THAN SCT LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THESE AREAS...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THESE SHUD STAY WEST...BUT COULD EXPAND EAST AS
THEY MOVE NORTH. EVEN WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP/MOVE IN...SHUD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOP THRU THE DAY. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA
MOVING EAST TO THE COAST TODAY ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WRN CWFA. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SHUD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND
WEST OF I-26 WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN UPSTATE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT
THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
UNTIL EVENING...WHEN COVERAGE EXPANDS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL...AND IF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT. THAT SAID...ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE I-77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE CONVECTION
SHUD STILL HAVE A DIURNAL COVERAGE TREND...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER
THRU THE NITE ACROSS THE WRN CWFA WHERE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE THRU IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN THO
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE DECENT ACROSS THE WRN CWFA...CHC OF
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEST AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AXIS OF HIGH
PWAT AIR WILL STALL ACRS THE CWFA...AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE A DE-AMPLIFYING
TROF NUDGES EAST. THE CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HELP
KEEP PWATS HIGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST SNDGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST
PROFILES WITH WEAK SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. UPPER
FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
CROSS THE AREA WITHIN GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO
EXPECT LARGELY DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE MAIN THREAT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHO SOME
LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM THE FOOTHILLS WEST...AND GENERALLY
MID TO HIGH CHC EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR AFTN HIGHS...AND ABOUT 6-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACRS THE REGION SOMEWHAT
BY FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND
HUMID...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL POPS (LIKELY MTNS AND CHC PIEDMONT) ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THEN TEMPS WARM A CATEGORY OR TWO FURTHER UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH POPS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...SAT PIX SHOW MVFR CIGS REMAIN WEST OF THE AIRFIELD ATTM.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME LOW VFR
CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD AND THESE COULD MOVE OVER FROM TIME TO
TIME BEFORE CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...CHC
OF CIGS ARE LOW UNTIL THE AFTERNOON CU DEVELOP. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION. MUCH BETTER CHC OF RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT AS
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS NEAR MIDNIGHT AND IFR SOON AFTER. SLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS
THE WRN SITES. THERE IS SOME MVFR NEAR KHKY...BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY
SHUD REMAIN SCT. THAT SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF CIG THIS
MORNING. CIGS SHUD LIFT TO VFR WITH HEATING WHILE DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPS AT KHKY. PROB30 RETAINED FOR ALL BUT HKY WHERE ATMOS
REMAINS CAPPED. MVFR CIGS RETURN ALL AREAS MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBY
AT KAVL AS WELL. IFR CIGS DEVELOP SOON AFTER. S TO SE WINDS THRU THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   64%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   64%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     LOW   48%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 251145
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
745 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND TAKE ON
A MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN TODAY.. AND WILL REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN
UPSTATE/NE GA. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THRU THE DAY WITH
CONVECTIVE CU FORMING ALL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOWER COVERAGE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS THE WEST. I-77 CORRIDOR
REMAINS CAPPED WITH NO CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST ON TRACK
WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 255 AM...LOW CLOUDS FINALLY FORMING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR
THE NC/SC BORDER WEST INTO NE GA. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING ACROSS THE MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...AND ALONG AND WEST
OF I-26 ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT
BRING MORE THAN SCT LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THESE AREAS...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THESE SHUD STAY WEST...BUT COULD EXPAND EAST AS
THEY MOVE NORTH. EVEN WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP/MOVE IN...SHUD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOP THRU THE DAY. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA
MOVING EAST TO THE COAST TODAY ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WRN CWFA. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SHUD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND
WEST OF I-26 WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN UPSTATE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT
THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
UNTIL EVENING...WHEN COVERAGE EXPANDS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL...AND IF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT. THAT SAID...ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE I-77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE CONVECTION
SHUD STILL HAVE A DIURNAL COVERAGE TREND...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER
THRU THE NITE ACROSS THE WRN CWFA WHERE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE THRU IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN THO
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE DECENT ACROSS THE WRN CWFA...CHC OF
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEST AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AXIS OF HIGH
PWAT AIR WILL STALL ACRS THE CWFA...AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE A DE-AMPLIFYING
TROF NUDGES EAST. THE CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HELP
KEEP PWATS HIGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST SNDGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST
PROFILES WITH WEAK SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. UPPER
FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
CROSS THE AREA WITHIN GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO
EXPECT LARGELY DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE MAIN THREAT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHO SOME
LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM THE FOOTHILLS WEST...AND GENERALLY
MID TO HIGH CHC EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR AFTN HIGHS...AND ABOUT 6-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACRS THE REGION SOMEWHAT
BY FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND
HUMID...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL POPS (LIKELY MTNS AND CHC PIEDMONT) ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THEN TEMPS WARM A CATEGORY OR TWO FURTHER UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH POPS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...SAT PIX SHOW MVFR CIGS REMAIN WEST OF THE AIRFIELD ATTM.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME LOW VFR
CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD AND THESE COULD MOVE OVER FROM TIME TO
TIME BEFORE CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...CHC
OF CIGS ARE LOW UNTIL THE AFTERNOON CU DEVELOP. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION. MUCH BETTER CHC OF RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT AS
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS NEAR MIDNIGHT AND IFR SOON AFTER. SLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS
THE WRN SITES. THERE IS SOME MVFR NEAR KHKY...BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY
SHUD REMAIN SCT. THAT SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF CIG THIS
MORNING. CIGS SHUD LIFT TO VFR WITH HEATING WHILE DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPS AT KHKY. PROB30 RETAINED FOR ALL BUT HKY WHERE ATMOS
REMAINS CAPPED. MVFR CIGS RETURN ALL AREAS MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBY
AT KAVL AS WELL. IFR CIGS DEVELOP SOON AFTER. S TO SE WINDS THRU THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   64%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     MED   64%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     LOW   48%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 250714
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
314 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND TAKE ON
A MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN TODAY.. AND WILL REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM...LOW CLOUDS FINALLY FORMING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR
THE NC/SC BORDER WEST INTO NE GA. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING ACROSS THE MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...AND ALONG AND WEST
OF I-26 ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT
BRING MORE THAN SCT LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THESE AREAS...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THESE SHUD STAY WEST...BUT COULD EXPAND EAST AS
THEY MOVE NORTH. EVEN WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP/MOVE IN...SHUD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOP THRU THE DAY. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA
MOVING EAST TO THE COAST TODAY ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WRN CWFA. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SHUD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND
WEST OF I-26 WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN UPSTATE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT
THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
UNTIL EVENING...WHEN COVERAGE EXPANDS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL...AND IF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT. THAT SAID...ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE I-77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE CONVECTION
SHUD STILL HAVE A DIURNAL COVERAGE TREND...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER
THRU THE NITE ACROSS THE WRN CWFA WHERE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE THRU IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN THO
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE DECENT ACROSS THE WRN CWFA...CHC OF
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEST AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AXIS OF HIGH
PWAT AIR WILL STALL ACRS THE CWFA...AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE A DE-AMPLIFYING
TROF NUDGES EAST. THE CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HELP
KEEP PWATS HIGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST SNDGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST
PROFILES WITH WEAK SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. UPPER
FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
CROSS THE AREA WITHIN GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO
EXPECT LARGELY DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE MAIN THREAT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHO SOME
LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM THE FOOTHILLS WEST...AND GENERALLY
MID TO HIGH CHC EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR AFTN HIGHS...AND ABOUT 6-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACRS THE REGION SOMEWHAT
BY FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND
HUMID...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL POPS (LIKELY MTNS AND CHC PIEDMONT) ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THEN TEMPS WARM A CATEGORY OR TWO FURTHER UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH POPS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ALL GUIDANCE...EVEN THE USUALLY RELIABLE NAM...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS IN
THE TAF. THAT SAID...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DEVELOPING
DIURNAL CU. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS
LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION. GUIDANCE DOES
AGREE ON LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH
MVFR CIGS. GENERALLY SLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...AS WITH KCLT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON LOW CLOUDS
EXCEPT AT KAND...BUT DOES GO WITH LOW VFR CIGS FOR THE FOR ALL BUT
KHKY. HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS. EXPECT LOW VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT WITH HEATING AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING.
PROB30 RETAINED FOR ALL BUT HKY WHERE INSTABILITY DOES NOT DEVELOP.
AS WITH KCLT...MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBY AT
KAVL AS WELL. S TO SE WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 250714
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
314 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND TAKE ON
A MORE SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN TODAY.. AND WILL REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM...LOW CLOUDS FINALLY FORMING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR
THE NC/SC BORDER WEST INTO NE GA. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING ACROSS THE MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...AND ALONG AND WEST
OF I-26 ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT
BRING MORE THAN SCT LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THESE AREAS...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THESE SHUD STAY WEST...BUT COULD EXPAND EAST AS
THEY MOVE NORTH. EVEN WHERE CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP/MOVE IN...SHUD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOP THRU THE DAY. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA
MOVING EAST TO THE COAST TODAY ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WRN CWFA. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SHUD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND
WEST OF I-26 WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN UPSTATE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT
THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
UNTIL EVENING...WHEN COVERAGE EXPANDS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL...AND IF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT. THAT SAID...ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE I-77 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE CONVECTION
SHUD STILL HAVE A DIURNAL COVERAGE TREND...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER
THRU THE NITE ACROSS THE WRN CWFA WHERE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE THRU IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN THO
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE DECENT ACROSS THE WRN CWFA...CHC OF
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEST AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AXIS OF HIGH
PWAT AIR WILL STALL ACRS THE CWFA...AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE A DE-AMPLIFYING
TROF NUDGES EAST. THE CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HELP
KEEP PWATS HIGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST SNDGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST
PROFILES WITH WEAK SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. UPPER
FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
CROSS THE AREA WITHIN GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SO
EXPECT LARGELY DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE MAIN THREAT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHO SOME
LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM THE FOOTHILLS WEST...AND GENERALLY
MID TO HIGH CHC EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR AFTN HIGHS...AND ABOUT 6-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACRS THE REGION SOMEWHAT
BY FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND
HUMID...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL POPS (LIKELY MTNS AND CHC PIEDMONT) ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THEN TEMPS WARM A CATEGORY OR TWO FURTHER UNDER THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...WITH POPS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ALL GUIDANCE...EVEN THE USUALLY RELIABLE NAM...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS IN
THE TAF. THAT SAID...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DEVELOPING
DIURNAL CU. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS
LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION. GUIDANCE DOES
AGREE ON LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH
MVFR CIGS. GENERALLY SLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...AS WITH KCLT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON LOW CLOUDS
EXCEPT AT KAND...BUT DOES GO WITH LOW VFR CIGS FOR THE FOR ALL BUT
KHKY. HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS. EXPECT LOW VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT WITH HEATING AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING.
PROB30 RETAINED FOR ALL BUT HKY WHERE INSTABILITY DOES NOT DEVELOP.
AS WITH KCLT...MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBY AT
KAVL AS WELL. S TO SE WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 250535
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES
FARTHER EASTWARD AND TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA PATTERN FOR
MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 135 AM...SAT PIX SHOW ONLY SMALL AREAS OF STRATOCU REMAINING
UNDER THE INCREASING CIRRUS VEIL. GUIDANCE...EVEN THE USUALLY
RELIABLE NAM...HAVE BACKED OFF GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPING
STRATOCU AND ANY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE SHRA. HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS
BY REMOVING POP UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK AND KEEPING LOW CLOUD CIGS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-26. FCST LOWS ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

1000 PM UPDATE...IR SATELLITE FAINTLY SHOWS SOME STRATOCU HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND NRN MTNS. IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW THIS IS NOT ESPECIALLY SURPRISING THOUGH WAS NOT WELL ACCOUNTED
FOR IN THE GRIDS. UPPED SKY COVER MORE INTO PCLDY RANGE. THESE
CLOUDS MIGHT JUST BE TRANSIENT BUT MORE PATCHY CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
BEFORE STRATUS FORM LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO REVISED HRLY
TEMPS/DEWPTS PER SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS PRODUCT...THOUGH NEW LOW TEMPS
ARE NOT FAR OFF FROM THE EARLIER PACKAGE. RH VALUES AND PROFILES ARE
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG...SO ROLLED BACK MENTION EXCEPT NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS. SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ALL GUIDANCE...EVEN THE USUALLY RELIABLE NAM...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS IN
THE TAF. THAT SAID...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DEVELOPING
DIURNAL CU. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS
LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION. GUIDANCE DOES
AGREE ON LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH
MVFR CIGS. GENERALLY SLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...AS WITH KCLT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON LOW CLOUDS
EXCEPT AT KAND...BUT DOES GO WITH LOW VFR CIGS FOR THE FOR ALL BUT
KHKY. HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS. EXPECT LOW VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT WITH HEATING AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING.
PROB30 RETAINED FOR ALL BUT HKY WHERE INSTABILITY DOES NOT DEVELOP.
AS WITH KCLT...MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBY AT
KAVL AS WELL. S TO SE WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   61%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   61%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/RWH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 250535
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES
FARTHER EASTWARD AND TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA PATTERN FOR
MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 135 AM...SAT PIX SHOW ONLY SMALL AREAS OF STRATOCU REMAINING
UNDER THE INCREASING CIRRUS VEIL. GUIDANCE...EVEN THE USUALLY
RELIABLE NAM...HAVE BACKED OFF GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPING
STRATOCU AND ANY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE SHRA. HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS
BY REMOVING POP UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK AND KEEPING LOW CLOUD CIGS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-26. FCST LOWS ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

1000 PM UPDATE...IR SATELLITE FAINTLY SHOWS SOME STRATOCU HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND NRN MTNS. IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW THIS IS NOT ESPECIALLY SURPRISING THOUGH WAS NOT WELL ACCOUNTED
FOR IN THE GRIDS. UPPED SKY COVER MORE INTO PCLDY RANGE. THESE
CLOUDS MIGHT JUST BE TRANSIENT BUT MORE PATCHY CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
BEFORE STRATUS FORM LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO REVISED HRLY
TEMPS/DEWPTS PER SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS PRODUCT...THOUGH NEW LOW TEMPS
ARE NOT FAR OFF FROM THE EARLIER PACKAGE. RH VALUES AND PROFILES ARE
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG...SO ROLLED BACK MENTION EXCEPT NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS. SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ALL GUIDANCE...EVEN THE USUALLY RELIABLE NAM...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS IN
THE TAF. THAT SAID...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DEVELOPING
DIURNAL CU. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS
LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION. GUIDANCE DOES
AGREE ON LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH
MVFR CIGS. GENERALLY SLY WINDS CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...AS WITH KCLT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON LOW CLOUDS
EXCEPT AT KAND...BUT DOES GO WITH LOW VFR CIGS FOR THE FOR ALL BUT
KHKY. HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS. EXPECT LOW VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT WITH HEATING AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING.
PROB30 RETAINED FOR ALL BUT HKY WHERE INSTABILITY DOES NOT DEVELOP.
AS WITH KCLT...MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBY AT
KAVL AS WELL. S TO SE WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   61%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   61%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/RWH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 250224
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1024 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES
FARTHER EASTWARD AND TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA PATTERN FOR
MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...IR SATELLITE FAINTLY SHOWS SOME STRATOCU HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND NRN MTNS. IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW THIS IS NOT ESPECIALLY SURPRISING THOUGH WAS NOT WELL ACCOUNTED
FOR IN THE GRIDS. UPPED SKY COVER MORE INTO PCLDY RANGE. THESE
CLOUDS MIGHT JUST BE TRANSIENT BUT MORE PATCHY CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
BEFORE STRATUS FORM LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO REVISED HRLY
TEMPS/DEWPTS PER SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS PRODUCT...THOUGH NEW LOW TEMPS
ARE NOT FAR OFF FROM THE EARLIER PACKAGE. RH VALUES AND PROFILES ARE
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG...SO ROLLED BACK MENTION EXCEPT NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS. SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE THRU
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REINTRODUCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN EARLY MON MRNG...AND LOW VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT BUT BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY DIURNAL CU LATE IN
THE MRNG...WITH BASES LIFTING A BIT. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS
LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SHRA FORMATION. S TO SE WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING STRATUS BACK TO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED WHERE THE FLOW INTERCEPTS
THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG THE SRN NC BORDER. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE
RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE...PERSISTING UNTIL STRATUS MIXES OUT LATE
MRNG. THE MOISTURE GENERALLY LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR A MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE MRNG CLOUDS...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO FIRE UP BY MIDDAY. INCLUDED PROB30 EXCEPT AT KHKY WHERE THE
CHANCE IS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA...THOUGH NONZERO. PRETTY GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS WOULD RESULT FROM ANY TSRA.
GENERALLY S TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SOME VRB OR CALM
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE WEE HRS OF THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUE
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 250224
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1024 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES
FARTHER EASTWARD AND TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA PATTERN FOR
MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...IR SATELLITE FAINTLY SHOWS SOME STRATOCU HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND NRN MTNS. IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW THIS IS NOT ESPECIALLY SURPRISING THOUGH WAS NOT WELL ACCOUNTED
FOR IN THE GRIDS. UPPED SKY COVER MORE INTO PCLDY RANGE. THESE
CLOUDS MIGHT JUST BE TRANSIENT BUT MORE PATCHY CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
BEFORE STRATUS FORM LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALSO REVISED HRLY
TEMPS/DEWPTS PER SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS PRODUCT...THOUGH NEW LOW TEMPS
ARE NOT FAR OFF FROM THE EARLIER PACKAGE. RH VALUES AND PROFILES ARE
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG...SO ROLLED BACK MENTION EXCEPT NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS. SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE THRU
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REINTRODUCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN EARLY MON MRNG...AND LOW VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT BUT BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY DIURNAL CU LATE IN
THE MRNG...WITH BASES LIFTING A BIT. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS
LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SHRA FORMATION. S TO SE WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING STRATUS BACK TO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED WHERE THE FLOW INTERCEPTS
THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG THE SRN NC BORDER. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE
RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE...PERSISTING UNTIL STRATUS MIXES OUT LATE
MRNG. THE MOISTURE GENERALLY LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR A MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE MRNG CLOUDS...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO FIRE UP BY MIDDAY. INCLUDED PROB30 EXCEPT AT KHKY WHERE THE
CHANCE IS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA...THOUGH NONZERO. PRETTY GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS WOULD RESULT FROM ANY TSRA.
GENERALLY S TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SOME VRB OR CALM
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE WEE HRS OF THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUE
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 242354
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
754 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE THINKING. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARED TO HAVE TRENDED A BIT LATER WITH THE ONSET OF CLOUD COVER
IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW EARLY MON MRNG. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...I FELT THAT THE SETUP WAS A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP
ONCE THE CLOUDS DID FORM. SO I MOVED THE ONSET OF PRECIP A LITTLE
EARLIER.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS. SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE THRU
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REINTRODUCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN EARLY MON MRNG...AND LOW VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT BUT BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY DIURNAL CU LATE IN
THE MRNG...WITH BASES LIFTING A BIT. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS
LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SHRA FORMATION. S TO SE WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING STRATUS BACK TO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED WHERE THE FLOW INTERCEPTS
THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG THE SRN NC BORDER. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE
RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE...PERSISTING UNTIL STRATUS MIXES OUT LATE
MRNG. THE MOISTURE GENERALLY LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR A MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE MRNG CLOUDS...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO FIRE UP BY MIDDAY. INCLUDED PROB30 EXCEPT AT KHKY WHERE THE
CHANCE IS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA...THOUGH NONZERO. PRETTY GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS WOULD RESULT FROM ANY TSRA.
GENERALLY S TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SOME VRB OR CALM
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE WEE HRS OF THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUE
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 242354
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
754 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE THINKING. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARED TO HAVE TRENDED A BIT LATER WITH THE ONSET OF CLOUD COVER
IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW EARLY MON MRNG. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...I FELT THAT THE SETUP WAS A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP
ONCE THE CLOUDS DID FORM. SO I MOVED THE ONSET OF PRECIP A LITTLE
EARLIER.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS. SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE THRU
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REINTRODUCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN EARLY MON MRNG...AND LOW VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT BUT BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY DIURNAL CU LATE IN
THE MRNG...WITH BASES LIFTING A BIT. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS
LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SHRA FORMATION. S TO SE WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING STRATUS BACK TO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED WHERE THE FLOW INTERCEPTS
THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG THE SRN NC BORDER. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE
RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE...PERSISTING UNTIL STRATUS MIXES OUT LATE
MRNG. THE MOISTURE GENERALLY LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR A MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE MRNG CLOUDS...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO FIRE UP BY MIDDAY. INCLUDED PROB30 EXCEPT AT KHKY WHERE THE
CHANCE IS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA...THOUGH NONZERO. PRETTY GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS WOULD RESULT FROM ANY TSRA.
GENERALLY S TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SOME VRB OR CALM
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE WEE HRS OF THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUE
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 242354
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
754 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE THINKING. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARED TO HAVE TRENDED A BIT LATER WITH THE ONSET OF CLOUD COVER
IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW EARLY MON MRNG. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...I FELT THAT THE SETUP WAS A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP
ONCE THE CLOUDS DID FORM. SO I MOVED THE ONSET OF PRECIP A LITTLE
EARLIER.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS. SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE THRU
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REINTRODUCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN EARLY MON MRNG...AND LOW VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT BUT BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY DIURNAL CU LATE IN
THE MRNG...WITH BASES LIFTING A BIT. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS
LATE IN THE DAY BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD ON ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SHRA FORMATION. S TO SE WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING STRATUS BACK TO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED WHERE THE FLOW INTERCEPTS
THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG THE SRN NC BORDER. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE
RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE...PERSISTING UNTIL STRATUS MIXES OUT LATE
MRNG. THE MOISTURE GENERALLY LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR A MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE MRNG CLOUDS...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO FIRE UP BY MIDDAY. INCLUDED PROB30 EXCEPT AT KHKY WHERE THE
CHANCE IS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA...THOUGH NONZERO. PRETTY GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS WOULD RESULT FROM ANY TSRA.
GENERALLY S TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SOME VRB OR CALM
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE WEE HRS OF THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND BETTER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TUE
THRU THU. HOWEVER...PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD DRIVE A
FEW STORMS AT NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 242050
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...TOUCHED UP SKY COVER INTO THIS EVENING...SLOWING THE
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDIER SKIES A BIT PER 18Z NAM. ALSO MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD...BUT OVERALL THE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER PIEDMONT SITES BREAKING INTO
THE LOWER 80S.  SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOW TERRAIN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     MED   72%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  97%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   60%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 242050
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...TOUCHED UP SKY COVER INTO THIS EVENING...SLOWING THE
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDIER SKIES A BIT PER 18Z NAM. ALSO MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD...BUT OVERALL THE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER PIEDMONT SITES BREAKING INTO
THE LOWER 80S.  SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOW TERRAIN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     MED   72%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  97%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   60%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241827
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER PIEDMONT SITES BREAKING INTO
THE LOWER 80S.  SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOW TERRAIN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241827
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER PIEDMONT SITES BREAKING INTO
THE LOWER 80S.  SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOW TERRAIN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241827
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER PIEDMONT SITES BREAKING INTO
THE LOWER 80S.  SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOW TERRAIN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241827
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EASTWARD...IT TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
PRODUCES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH DAY AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER PIEDMONT SITES BREAKING INTO
THE LOWER 80S.  SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOW TERRAIN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ADVECTING IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.  THUS...MODELS FAVOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
THE REGION BY MORNING MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST GA...SOUTHWEST
NC...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC.  THE FCST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES...THEREBY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL INCREASE AROUND THE
15Z TIMEFRAME OVER THESE AREAS...BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IMPROVES AND HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.  WITH
THAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AMONGST INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...WHAT APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO AS A SIMPLE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED NOW. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ELONGATING AND
BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS MAINTAINING A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THERE IS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE GFS THAT SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WOULD MEAN THAT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THE COMPLICATION COMES ABOUT BECAUSE OF JET STREAKS LIFTING NWD OUT
OF THE UPPER TROF AND WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT CENTERS THAT
MOVE UP FROM THE SW THRU THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...HOWEVER...THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS A WEAK
MOIST ATLANTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY NEVER
REALLY GO AWAY EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT THRU THE PERIOD...AS WAS SKY
COVER...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. PERHAPS THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT FEEL SO SUMMER-LIKE AFTER
ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMLUTANEOULSY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE LOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE SIG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND TO OUR EAST.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY LOW
LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS
POSSIBLE ON FRI AND SAT...YET ITS LOOKING LESS SUBSTANTIAL COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT TO OUR NW ON SAT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLOW TO REACH THE CWFA AND COULD ESSENTIALLY JUST LAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD LATE
SUN. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS
EACH DAY WITH SOMEWHAT REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER OVERALL...BUT WITH
GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK.  THEREFORE
OTHER THAN TWEAKS OF TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS...NO CHANGES MADE.  FULL
FCST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK.  THEREFORE
OTHER THAN TWEAKS OF TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS...NO CHANGES MADE.  FULL
FCST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK.  THEREFORE
OTHER THAN TWEAKS OF TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS...NO CHANGES MADE.  FULL
FCST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK.  THEREFORE
OTHER THAN TWEAKS OF TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS...NO CHANGES MADE.  FULL
FCST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TAF
INITIALIZES WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH LOW VFR CU
FIELD AND HIGH LEVEL BKN CIGS.  EXPECTING THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AFTER
SUNSET.  AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THUS...SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF LOW VFR.  MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE JUST TO THE
WEST...THEREFORE FURTHER CIG DETERIORATION IS POSSIBLE IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCE.  WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING UNDER LOW VFR CU AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH INTRUDES.  THUS...CARRIED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR AT KAND.  NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KHKY.  ALL RESTRICTIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET ATOP OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW OVER THE
WEST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241434
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CU/STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST GA
MOUNTAINS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WERE MADE TO THE FCST.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S...ON THEIR WAY
TOWARD/INTO THE LOWER 80S AMONGST INCREASING DEWPOINTS THANKS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN
INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...WITH A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. SOME LLVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF KCLT BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT SHUD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU 12Z...SO NO
LOW CIGS WILL BE SHOWN IN THE 12Z TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE UNDER A FEW
FAIR WX. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 4500 TO 6000
FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE STRATUS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KHKY. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
12Z TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241434
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CU/STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST GA
MOUNTAINS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WERE MADE TO THE FCST.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S...ON THEIR WAY
TOWARD/INTO THE LOWER 80S AMONGST INCREASING DEWPOINTS THANKS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN
INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...WITH A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. SOME LLVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF KCLT BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT SHUD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU 12Z...SO NO
LOW CIGS WILL BE SHOWN IN THE 12Z TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE UNDER A FEW
FAIR WX. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 4500 TO 6000
FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE STRATUS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KHKY. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
12Z TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241434
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CU/STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST GA
MOUNTAINS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WERE MADE TO THE FCST.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S...ON THEIR WAY
TOWARD/INTO THE LOWER 80S AMONGST INCREASING DEWPOINTS THANKS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN
INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...WITH A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. SOME LLVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF KCLT BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT SHUD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU 12Z...SO NO
LOW CIGS WILL BE SHOWN IN THE 12Z TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE UNDER A FEW
FAIR WX. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 4500 TO 6000
FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE STRATUS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KHKY. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
12Z TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241106
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
706 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK. I DID REMOVE THE FOG FROM THE MTN
VLYS...AS NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED CIRRUS ON THE IR SAT IMAGERY.

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN
INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...WITH A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. SOME LLVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF KCLT BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT SHUD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU 12Z...SO NO
LOW CIGS WILL BE SHOWN IN THE 12Z TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE UNDER A FEW
FAIR WX. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 4500 TO 6000
FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE STRATUS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KHKY. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
12Z TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241106
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
706 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK. I DID REMOVE THE FOG FROM THE MTN
VLYS...AS NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED CIRRUS ON THE IR SAT IMAGERY.

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN
INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...WITH A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. SOME LLVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF KCLT BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT SHUD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU 12Z...SO NO
LOW CIGS WILL BE SHOWN IN THE 12Z TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE UNDER A FEW
FAIR WX. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 4500 TO 6000
FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE STRATUS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KHKY. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
12Z TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241106
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
706 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK. I DID REMOVE THE FOG FROM THE MTN
VLYS...AS NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED CIRRUS ON THE IR SAT IMAGERY.

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN
INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...WITH A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. SOME LLVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF KCLT BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT SHUD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU 12Z...SO NO
LOW CIGS WILL BE SHOWN IN THE 12Z TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE UNDER A FEW
FAIR WX. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 4500 TO 6000
FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE STRATUS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KHKY. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
12Z TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241106
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
706 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM...FCST IS ON TRACK. I DID REMOVE THE FOG FROM THE MTN
VLYS...AS NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED CIRRUS ON THE IR SAT IMAGERY.

AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN
INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN. THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...WITH A
FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT. SOME LLVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF KCLT BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT SHUD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU 12Z...SO NO
LOW CIGS WILL BE SHOWN IN THE 12Z TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 8-12 KT RANGE UNDER A FEW
FAIR WX. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 4500 TO 6000
FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR
OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE STRATUS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KHKY. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
12Z TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 240723
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY.
WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KCLT THIS AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY. THEN AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SOME LOW
VFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST...MAINLY AT KAND BEFORE 06Z
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE SHUD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 240723
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY. THE
HIGH TAKES ON A SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE WEEK. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA
SHUD BEGIN TO TRANSPORT SOME SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THICKNESSES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER REACHING
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST ACRS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHWRS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...FCST SNDGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE NEAR-SATURATED LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FCST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
WITHIN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN
HOLDS ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING THRU THE FLOW
AND OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH WEAKENS ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WRN CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWFA
MONDAY DIMINISHING TO NO CONVECTION OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. PRECIP
CHC INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE NITE GIVEN
THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. THIS KEEPS A
MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING THRU THE NITE WED
NITE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER WED AND THU THEN ON FRI AND
SAT...DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY.
WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KCLT THIS AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY. THEN AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SOME LOW
VFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST...MAINLY AT KAND BEFORE 06Z
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE SHUD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 240545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 935 PM...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. I WILL ISSUE A UPDATE
TO ONCE AGAIN POPULATE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...I WILL ADJUST THE WINDS A LITTLE LIGHTER
AND REDUCE POPS TO ZERO.

AS OF 745 PM...THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO POPULATE HRLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO EDITS ARE NEED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY.
WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KCLT THIS AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY. THEN AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SOME LOW
VFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST...MAINLY AT KAND BEFORE 06Z
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE SHUD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 240545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 935 PM...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. I WILL ISSUE A UPDATE
TO ONCE AGAIN POPULATE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...I WILL ADJUST THE WINDS A LITTLE LIGHTER
AND REDUCE POPS TO ZERO.

AS OF 745 PM...THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO POPULATE HRLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO EDITS ARE NEED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY.
WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KCLT THIS AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY. THEN AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SOME LOW
VFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST...MAINLY AT KAND BEFORE 06Z
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE SHUD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 240545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 935 PM...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. I WILL ISSUE A UPDATE
TO ONCE AGAIN POPULATE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...I WILL ADJUST THE WINDS A LITTLE LIGHTER
AND REDUCE POPS TO ZERO.

AS OF 745 PM...THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO POPULATE HRLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO EDITS ARE NEED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  STARTING
TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS FROM FL TO TO MN. THE HEIGHT RISES ATOP THE
CWFA WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SO WITH
FLOW TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...STILL ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER REGIME. THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...A GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD RIGHT BEHIND
IT. THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL COMMENCE
TO THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS COULD FORCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GEORGIA/UPSTATE
SC BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE. FROM THERE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. THE MODEL TREND
SEEMS TO BE TO CREEP THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER E WITH EACH RUN...
SO THE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCE OVER THE NC MTNS/WRN UPSTATE/NE GEORGIA IS
LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER. TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT IS KIND OF INTERESTING IN
THAT WE MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH OF THE USUAL DIURNAL DROP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
MOVING IN FROM THE W/SW AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NWD
OVER THE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK VORT MAX ALSO LIFTS NE FROM
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBTLE FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE FLOW OUT OF THE GULF...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT CONVECTIVE PRECIP DAY AND A CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE FCST. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL CREEP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER...BUT THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MIGHT BE MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A STEEP UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW NW AND TOWARDS
BERMUDA ON FRI AND SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIG
IMPACT ON OUR FCST. ON SAT...HEIGHTS RECOVER TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AT THE SFC...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
BERMUDA HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST SLY
LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE REGION THRU PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME MINOR LOW TO MID LVL DRYING IS POSSIBLE
ON FRI AND SAT...YET IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO
GENERATE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO OUR NW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT PROBABLY WONT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE CAROLINAS UNTIL BEYOND DAY 7 IF AT ALL. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL WARM SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS ON WED AND THURS WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED CHANCES ON FRI AND SAT AS PROFILES SHOULD BE DRIER
OVERALL...BUT WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY.
WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LGT SE...THEN INCREASE TO THE 8-12 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KCLT THIS AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A FEW WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS THRU THE DAY. THEN AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SOME LOW
VFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST...MAINLY AT KAND BEFORE 06Z
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE SHUD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO INCREASED MORNING STRATUS...AND A RETURN OF
ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK





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