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000
FXUS62 KGSP 011048
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.  A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THOSE PERIODS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...PATCHY DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE MTNS AND
PATCHY FOG ELSEHWERE WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...BKN
CIRRUS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHRA ACROSS THE MTNS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...BEFORE
SCT CONVECTION RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT BEST CHC TO
BE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WITH ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...GOING
FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

AS OF 305 AM...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE WILL BRUSH BY THE MTNS
TODAY. THIS MAY BE JUST ENUF FORCING TO ACT ON THE DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO PRODUCE LOW END SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE NC MTNS...THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
BEING THE MAIN EXCEPTION WHERE ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED. OUTSIDE
OF THE NC MTNS...ATMOS WILL REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH LFC LEVELS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AS LEE
TROF SETS UP EAST OF THE CWFA. HAVE LOW END ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THIS AREA. IN FACT...THERE MAY NOT BE ANY CONVECTION AT ALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE LOW END ISOLATED POP. HIGHS WILL AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER ALONG THE TN BORDER BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL ALSO AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE REGARDING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WHICH INITIALIZES TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BROAD
SUBTROPICAL DEEP LAYER RIDGING.  AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MOVING EAST WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WARRANT NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION ON A DIURNAL TREND.  ABOVE MENTIONED RIDING WILL
PROVIDE SOME INHIBITION TO CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST.  WEAK LEE TROF PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC/SC COULD BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT INITIATION DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED CAP.  LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE RATHER STEEP LATER IN THE DAY AS TEMPS SURGE TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...THEREFORE MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED/STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE
UPDRAFTS WILL BE LESS INHIBITED.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GENERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT.

EXPECTING A NOCTURNAL FROPA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE MORE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSING BY TO NORTH.
THUS...POPS WILL ACTUALLY TAPER WITH DIURNAL COOLING THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCE LEVEL POPS RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONT SLOWING AND BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND PARENT SURFACE TROF EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BEGIN A RATHER NOCTURNALLY INDUCED UNSETTLED
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  DUE
TO THE SLOWER/STALLED PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING ANY
SURFACE COOLING/DRYING TO BE MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE DRYING WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FREE FOR CONVECTION AMIDST PROFILES
SUPPORTING NEARLY 1500J/KG SBCAPE.  THUS...POPS WILL RAMP UP INTO
THE AFTERNOON TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED
REGIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD WHILE SOLID CHANCE POPS RESIDE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT DOWNBURST/HAIL THREATS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
INITIALIZES THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIFFUSE QUASI STATIONARY MOISTURE
AXIS FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST AND OUT TO SEA
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEKS END
WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY WORKING TO OVERCOME CAPPING EACH
DAY WARRANTING AT LEAST CHANCE LEVEL POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN CONSENSUS ON ANOTHER RATHER ROBUST FROPA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DISCONTINUITY REGARDING TIMING AND
INTENSITY.  THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THAT OF
THE ECWMF...NEVERTHELESS BOTH INDICATE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...ABOVE MENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES FALL.
THEREFORE FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MID
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FEATURED ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN WHILE NEAR
LIKELY LEVEL POPS ARE MENTIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.  HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK LEADING TO DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
COOLING FORECAST BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND FROPA FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN CIRRUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU THE MORNING WITH
SCT HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CU WILL BECOME
BKN FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN IT SCATTERS OUT. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT SW WIND THIS
MORNING BECOMES WSW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLY WIND EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHC OF CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE MTNS.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
KAVL WILL SEE VLIFR THRU 13Z...LIFR BECOMING LOW VFR BY 14Z. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME SHRA AROUND THIS MORNING. NWLY WIND PICKS UP THIS
MORNING BECOMING SLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CALM OVERNIGHT. SHUD BE
ANOTHER NITE WITH AT LEAST IFR AND LIKELY VLIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK.
KAVL HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...CHC STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 011048
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.  A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THOSE PERIODS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...PATCHY DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE MTNS AND
PATCHY FOG ELSEHWERE WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...BKN
CIRRUS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHRA ACROSS THE MTNS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...BEFORE
SCT CONVECTION RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT BEST CHC TO
BE ACROSS THE NC MTNS WITH ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...GOING
FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

AS OF 305 AM...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE WILL BRUSH BY THE MTNS
TODAY. THIS MAY BE JUST ENUF FORCING TO ACT ON THE DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO PRODUCE LOW END SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE NC MTNS...THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
BEING THE MAIN EXCEPTION WHERE ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED. OUTSIDE
OF THE NC MTNS...ATMOS WILL REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH LFC LEVELS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AS LEE
TROF SETS UP EAST OF THE CWFA. HAVE LOW END ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THIS AREA. IN FACT...THERE MAY NOT BE ANY CONVECTION AT ALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE LOW END ISOLATED POP. HIGHS WILL AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER ALONG THE TN BORDER BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL ALSO AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE REGARDING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WHICH INITIALIZES TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BROAD
SUBTROPICAL DEEP LAYER RIDGING.  AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MOVING EAST WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WARRANT NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION ON A DIURNAL TREND.  ABOVE MENTIONED RIDING WILL
PROVIDE SOME INHIBITION TO CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST.  WEAK LEE TROF PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC/SC COULD BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT INITIATION DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED CAP.  LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE RATHER STEEP LATER IN THE DAY AS TEMPS SURGE TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...THEREFORE MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED/STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE
UPDRAFTS WILL BE LESS INHIBITED.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GENERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT.

EXPECTING A NOCTURNAL FROPA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE MORE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSING BY TO NORTH.
THUS...POPS WILL ACTUALLY TAPER WITH DIURNAL COOLING THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCE LEVEL POPS RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONT SLOWING AND BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND PARENT SURFACE TROF EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BEGIN A RATHER NOCTURNALLY INDUCED UNSETTLED
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  DUE
TO THE SLOWER/STALLED PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING ANY
SURFACE COOLING/DRYING TO BE MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE DRYING WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FREE FOR CONVECTION AMIDST PROFILES
SUPPORTING NEARLY 1500J/KG SBCAPE.  THUS...POPS WILL RAMP UP INTO
THE AFTERNOON TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED
REGIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD WHILE SOLID CHANCE POPS RESIDE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT DOWNBURST/HAIL THREATS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
INITIALIZES THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIFFUSE QUASI STATIONARY MOISTURE
AXIS FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST AND OUT TO SEA
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEKS END
WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY WORKING TO OVERCOME CAPPING EACH
DAY WARRANTING AT LEAST CHANCE LEVEL POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN CONSENSUS ON ANOTHER RATHER ROBUST FROPA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DISCONTINUITY REGARDING TIMING AND
INTENSITY.  THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THAT OF
THE ECWMF...NEVERTHELESS BOTH INDICATE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...ABOVE MENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES FALL.
THEREFORE FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MID
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FEATURED ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN WHILE NEAR
LIKELY LEVEL POPS ARE MENTIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.  HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK LEADING TO DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
COOLING FORECAST BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND FROPA FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN CIRRUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU THE MORNING WITH
SCT HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CU WILL BECOME
BKN FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN IT SCATTERS OUT. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT SW WIND THIS
MORNING BECOMES WSW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLY WIND EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHC OF CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE MTNS.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
KAVL WILL SEE VLIFR THRU 13Z...LIFR BECOMING LOW VFR BY 14Z. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME SHRA AROUND THIS MORNING. NWLY WIND PICKS UP THIS
MORNING BECOMING SLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CALM OVERNIGHT. SHUD BE
ANOTHER NITE WITH AT LEAST IFR AND LIKELY VLIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK.
KAVL HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...CHC STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH








000
FXUS62 KGSP 010745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.  A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THOSE PERIODS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE WILL BRUSH BY THE MTNS
TODAY. THIS MAY BE JUST ENUF FORCING TO ACT ON THE DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO PRODUCE LOW END SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE NC MTNS...THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
BEING THE MAIN EXCEPTION WHERE ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED. OUTSIDE
OF THE NC MTNS...ATMOS WILL REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH LFC LEVELS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AS LEE
TROF SETS UP EAST OF THE CWFA. HAVE LOW END ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THIS AREA. IN FACT...THERE MAY NOT BE ANY CONVECTION AT ALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE LOW END ISOLATED POP. HIGHS WILL AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER ALONG THE TN BORDER BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL ALSO AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE REGARDING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WHICH INITIALIZES TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BROAD
SUBTROPICAL DEEP LAYER RIDGING.  AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MOVING EAST WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WARRANT NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION ON A DIURNAL TREND.  ABOVE MENTIONED RIDING WILL
PROVIDE SOME INHIBITION TO CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST.  WEAK LEE TROF PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC/SC COULD BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT INITIATION DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED CAP.  LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE RATHER STEEP LATER IN THE DAY AS TEMPS SURGE TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...THEREFORE MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED/STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE
UPDRAFTS WILL BE LESS INHIBITED.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GENERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT.

EXPECTING A NOCTURNAL FROPA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE MORE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSING BY TO NORTH.
THUS...POPS WILL ACTUALLY TAPER WITH DIURNAL COOLING THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCE LEVEL POPS RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONT SLOWING AND BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND PARENT SURFACE TROF EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BEGIN A RATHER NOCTURNALLY INDUCED UNSETTLED
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  DUE
TO THE SLOWER/STALLED PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING ANY
SURFACE COOLING/DRYING TO BE MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE DRYING WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FREE FOR CONVECTION AMIDST PROFILES
SUPPORTING NEARLY 1500J/KG SBCAPE.  THUS...POPS WILL RAMP UP INTO
THE AFTERNOON TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED
REGIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD WHILE SOLID CHANCE POPS RESIDE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT DOWNBURST/HAIL THREATS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
INITIALIZES THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIFFUSE QUASI STATIONARY MOISTURE
AXIS FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST AND OUT TO SEA
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEKS END
WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY WORKING TO OVERCOME CAPPING EACH
DAY WARRANTING AT LEAST CHANCE LEVEL POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN CONSENSUS ON ANOTHER RATHER ROBUST FROPA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DISCONTINUITY REGARDING TIMING AND
INTENSITY.  THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THAT OF
THE ECWMF...NEVERTHELESS BOTH INDICATE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...ABOVE MENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES FALL.
THEREFORE FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MID
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FEATURED ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN WHILE NEAR
LIKELY LEVEL POPS ARE MENTIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.  HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK LEADING TO DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
COOLING FORECAST BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND FROPA FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN CIRRUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK. THE FOG SHUD DISSIPATE
RELATIVELY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT HIGH BASED CU TO
DEVELOP THRU THE DAY AND BECOME BKN BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTER
OUT DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT SW WIND THIS MORNING BECOMES SW AFTER
DAYBREAK...THEN WSW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLY WIND EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK AND SWLY WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CU MAY TAKE
LONGER TO BECOME BKN OVER THE SC STIES...AND MAY REMAIN SCT. KAVL
HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY IFR OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT THAT
THERE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOST LIKELY AT KAVL...BUT CHC STILL TO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WIND AT KAVL WILL BE CALM
OVERNIGHT...NWLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SLY FOR THE AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING CALM DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   78%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 010745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.  A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THOSE PERIODS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE WILL BRUSH BY THE MTNS
TODAY. THIS MAY BE JUST ENUF FORCING TO ACT ON THE DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO PRODUCE LOW END SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE NC MTNS...THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
BEING THE MAIN EXCEPTION WHERE ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED. OUTSIDE
OF THE NC MTNS...ATMOS WILL REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH LFC LEVELS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AS LEE
TROF SETS UP EAST OF THE CWFA. HAVE LOW END ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THIS AREA. IN FACT...THERE MAY NOT BE ANY CONVECTION AT ALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE LOW END ISOLATED POP. HIGHS WILL AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER ALONG THE TN BORDER BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL ALSO AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT SUNDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE REGARDING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WHICH INITIALIZES TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST BROAD
SUBTROPICAL DEEP LAYER RIDGING.  AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MOVING EAST WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WARRANT NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION ON A DIURNAL TREND.  ABOVE MENTIONED RIDING WILL
PROVIDE SOME INHIBITION TO CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST.  WEAK LEE TROF PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC/SC COULD BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT INITIATION DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED CAP.  LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE RATHER STEEP LATER IN THE DAY AS TEMPS SURGE TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...THEREFORE MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED/STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE
UPDRAFTS WILL BE LESS INHIBITED.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GENERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT.

EXPECTING A NOCTURNAL FROPA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE MORE ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSING BY TO NORTH.
THUS...POPS WILL ACTUALLY TAPER WITH DIURNAL COOLING THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCE LEVEL POPS RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONT SLOWING AND BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND PARENT SURFACE TROF EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BEGIN A RATHER NOCTURNALLY INDUCED UNSETTLED
WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  DUE
TO THE SLOWER/STALLED PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING ANY
SURFACE COOLING/DRYING TO BE MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE DRYING WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FREE FOR CONVECTION AMIDST PROFILES
SUPPORTING NEARLY 1500J/KG SBCAPE.  THUS...POPS WILL RAMP UP INTO
THE AFTERNOON TO LOW END LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED
REGIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD WHILE SOLID CHANCE POPS RESIDE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT DOWNBURST/HAIL THREATS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
INITIALIZES THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIFFUSE QUASI STATIONARY MOISTURE
AXIS FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST AND OUT TO SEA
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEKS END
WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY WORKING TO OVERCOME CAPPING EACH
DAY WARRANTING AT LEAST CHANCE LEVEL POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN CONSENSUS ON ANOTHER RATHER ROBUST FROPA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DISCONTINUITY REGARDING TIMING AND
INTENSITY.  THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THAT OF
THE ECWMF...NEVERTHELESS BOTH INDICATE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.  AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...ABOVE MENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES FALL.
THEREFORE FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MID
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FEATURED ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN WHILE NEAR
LIKELY LEVEL POPS ARE MENTIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.  HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK LEADING TO DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
COOLING FORECAST BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND FROPA FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN CIRRUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK. THE FOG SHUD DISSIPATE
RELATIVELY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT HIGH BASED CU TO
DEVELOP THRU THE DAY AND BECOME BKN BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTER
OUT DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT SW WIND THIS MORNING BECOMES SW AFTER
DAYBREAK...THEN WSW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLY WIND EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK AND SWLY WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CU MAY TAKE
LONGER TO BECOME BKN OVER THE SC STIES...AND MAY REMAIN SCT. KAVL
HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY IFR OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT THAT
THERE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOST LIKELY AT KAVL...BUT CHC STILL TO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WIND AT KAVL WILL BE CALM
OVERNIGHT...NWLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SLY FOR THE AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING CALM DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   78%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH








000
FXUS62 KGSP 010545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...SHRA DISSIPATING ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SO HAVE TRENDED POP DOWNWARD TO NON-MENTIONABLE BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CIRRUS MUCH THICKER THAN FCST...SO HAVE UPPED AMOUNTS EARLY...THEN
ALLOW IT TO SCATTER OUT.

AS OF 1025 PM EDT...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STABILIZING...ANY ISOLD
OVERNIGHT POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WRN MTNS NEAR THE TN BORDER.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND ALSO ALONG AND N
OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL LATE TODAY. MIN TEMPS WILL
RUN 5 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE REGION.

BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. A BIT MORE MIXING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTN...WITH RH VALUES A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM
AIRMASS. ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
MON AFTN IN WEAK TERRAIN FORCED TRIGGERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN CIRRUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK. THE FOG SHUD DISSIPATE
RELATIVELY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT HIGH BASED CU TO
DEVELOP THRU THE DAY AND BECOME BKN BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTER
OUT DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT SW WIND THIS MORNING BECOMES SW AFTER
DAYBREAK...THEN WSW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLY WIND EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK AND SWLY WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CU MAY TAKE
LONGER TO BECOME BKN OVER THE SC STIES...AND MAY REMAIN SCT. KAVL
HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY IFR OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT THAT
THERE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOST LIKELY AT KAVL...BUT CHC STILL TO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WIND AT KAVL WILL BE CALM
OVERNIGHT...NWLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SLY FOR THE AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING CALM DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  84%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...RWH








000
FXUS62 KGSP 010545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...SHRA DISSIPATING ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SO HAVE TRENDED POP DOWNWARD TO NON-MENTIONABLE BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CIRRUS MUCH THICKER THAN FCST...SO HAVE UPPED AMOUNTS EARLY...THEN
ALLOW IT TO SCATTER OUT.

AS OF 1025 PM EDT...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STABILIZING...ANY ISOLD
OVERNIGHT POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WRN MTNS NEAR THE TN BORDER.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND ALSO ALONG AND N
OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL LATE TODAY. MIN TEMPS WILL
RUN 5 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE REGION.

BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. A BIT MORE MIXING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTN...WITH RH VALUES A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM
AIRMASS. ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
MON AFTN IN WEAK TERRAIN FORCED TRIGGERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN CIRRUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK. THE FOG SHUD DISSIPATE
RELATIVELY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT HIGH BASED CU TO
DEVELOP THRU THE DAY AND BECOME BKN BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTER
OUT DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT SW WIND THIS MORNING BECOMES SW AFTER
DAYBREAK...THEN WSW FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SLY WIND EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT.
MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK AND SWLY WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CU MAY TAKE
LONGER TO BECOME BKN OVER THE SC STIES...AND MAY REMAIN SCT. KAVL
HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY IFR OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT THAT
THERE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOST LIKELY AT KAVL...BUT CHC STILL TO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WIND AT KAVL WILL BE CALM
OVERNIGHT...NWLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SLY FOR THE AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING CALM DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  84%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...RWH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 010234
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STABILIZING...ANY ISOLD
OVERNIGHT POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WRN MTNS NEAR THE TN BORDER.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND ALSO ALONG AND N
OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL LATE TODAY. MIN TEMPS WILL
RUN 5 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE REGION.

BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. A BIT MORE MIXING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTN...WITH RH VALUES A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM
AIRMASS. ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
MON AFTN IN WEAK TERRAIN FORCED TRIGGERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT A FEW STRATOCU UNDER A WEAK CAP OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOIST...BUT MOS AND MODEL
CONSENSUS STILL POINT TO NOTHING WORSE THAN MVFR FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SSW TO SW FLOW...PICKING UP WITH
MIXING AND TURNING MORE SW TO WSW THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
LOOK QUITE LOW ON MONDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF TRIGGERS.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW FINAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NE ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ANY WEAK CONVECTION
REMAINING GENERALLY W OF KAVL NEAR THE TN BORDER. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FROM KAVL TO POSSIBLY KHKY...WHERE
CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED. GIVEN THE RECENT HISTORY AT THESE
SITES...HAVE FEATURED IFR FOG AT KAVL BUT WILL HOLD ON TO MVFR AT
KHKY IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MOS. BRIEF MVFR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE UPSTATE SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL. EXPECT SW TO
WSW WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH MIXING MON AT THE FOOTHILL
SITES...WHILE NW WINDS AT KAVL EARLY WILL TURN TO SRLY THROUGH MON
AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY SCT CUMULUS WITH HEATING...BKN AT TIMES FROM
KAVL TO KHKY...WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
POINT FOR MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 010013
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
813 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
ACROSS EXTREME NW NC THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER ENERGY WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL VORT LOBES PASSING ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS BEING QUITE WEAK OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PERMIT LINGERING
PIEDMONT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH ONCE THE LINGERING OUTFLOWS
DISSIPATE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND ALSO
ALONG AND N OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL TODAY. MINS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UP A DEGREE IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. A BIT
MORE MIXING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH RH VALUES A LITTLE MORE
TOLERABLE. EXPECT HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN MON AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANY RESIDUAL LATE EVENING CONVECTION WILL PASS WELL N OF
THE AIRFIELD WITH ANY DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVES. EXPECT MAINLY FEW
CU UNDER A WEAK CAP OVERNIGHT WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS WILL
BE MOIST...BUT MOS AND MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY POINT TO NOTHING
WORSE THAN MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SW
FLOW...PICKING UP WITH MIXING AND TURNING MORE SW TO WSW THROUGH
MONDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW ON MONDAY GIVEN THE LACK
OF TRIGGERS.

ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NE ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ANY WEAK CONVECTION
REMAINING GENERALLY W OF KAVL. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE
REACHED AND GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE. WILL GO AHEAD AND FEATURE
IFR FOG AT KAVL BUT HOLD ON TO MVFR AT KHKY GIVEN THAT THE AFTN
PRECIPITATION MISSED THE AIRFIELD TO THE N AND MOST CONSENSUS LEANS
STRONGLY TO MVFR AT PRESENT. BRIEF MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
UPSTATE SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL. EXPECT SW TO WSW WINDS TO
INCREASE AGAIN WITH MIXING MON AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WHILE NW
WINDS AT KAVL EARLY WILL TURN TO SRLY THROUGH MON AFTN. EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS WITH HEATING...BKN AT TIMES FROM KAVL TO
KHKY...WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT FOR
MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 010013
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
813 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
ACROSS EXTREME NW NC THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER ENERGY WILL PULL AWAY
TO THE NE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL VORT LOBES PASSING ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS BEING QUITE WEAK OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PERMIT LINGERING
PIEDMONT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH ONCE THE LINGERING OUTFLOWS
DISSIPATE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND ALSO
ALONG AND N OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL TODAY. MINS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UP A DEGREE IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. A BIT
MORE MIXING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH RH VALUES A LITTLE MORE
TOLERABLE. EXPECT HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN MON AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANY RESIDUAL LATE EVENING CONVECTION WILL PASS WELL N OF
THE AIRFIELD WITH ANY DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVES. EXPECT MAINLY FEW
CU UNDER A WEAK CAP OVERNIGHT WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS WILL
BE MOIST...BUT MOS AND MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY POINT TO NOTHING
WORSE THAN MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SW
FLOW...PICKING UP WITH MIXING AND TURNING MORE SW TO WSW THROUGH
MONDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW ON MONDAY GIVEN THE LACK
OF TRIGGERS.

ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NE ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ANY WEAK CONVECTION
REMAINING GENERALLY W OF KAVL. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE
REACHED AND GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE. WILL GO AHEAD AND FEATURE
IFR FOG AT KAVL BUT HOLD ON TO MVFR AT KHKY GIVEN THAT THE AFTN
PRECIPITATION MISSED THE AIRFIELD TO THE N AND MOST CONSENSUS LEANS
STRONGLY TO MVFR AT PRESENT. BRIEF MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
UPSTATE SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL. EXPECT SW TO WSW WINDS TO
INCREASE AGAIN WITH MIXING MON AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WHILE NW
WINDS AT KAVL EARLY WILL TURN TO SRLY THROUGH MON AFTN. EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS WITH HEATING...BKN AT TIMES FROM KAVL TO
KHKY...WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT FOR
MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 312113
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTN HAS FOCUSED
MAINLY ALONG TWO CONVERGENCE AXES...ONE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE MTNS AND ANOTHER IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT JUST SE OF KCLT.
CONTINUED SCATTERED TRIGGERING IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...WITH
ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM IN THE SW TO WSW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT. POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN BOOSTED IN THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY.
HEAVY RAIN IS A THREAT UNDER ANY CELLS THAT FORM GIVEN THE FAIRLY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH STEERING FLOW
THAT ONLY TRAINING WOULD CAUSE ISSUES. ALSO...20 TO 30 KT OF LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS SHOWING UP ON VAD WIND PROFILES TO THE W...AND SLIGHT
ORGANIZATION OF CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS...BUT THE
SEVERE TSTM RISK REMAINS FAIRLY LOW OVERALL IN THE LIMITED DCAPE AIR
WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.

OTHERWISE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...THOUGH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS BY
ON ITS NW FRINGE AS THEY EXIT THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THESE
DISTURBANCES LARGELY SHOULD LEAVE OUR CWFA UNSCATHED...WITH THE
NRN MTNS MOST LIKELY TO SEE AN IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. UNDER
THE RIDGE...LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION
WITH SOME DEGREE OF MIDLEVEL CAPPING THROUGH MONDAY. A PASSING VORT
MAX THIS EVENING MIGHT ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TN
BORDER PAST THE END OF HEATING...BUT ELSEWHERE THE FCST IS DRY
OVERNIGHT.

SKY COVER IS A TOUGH CALL FOR TONIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
HOWEVER. DEWPOINTS AND CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE BOTH HIGH DUE TO THE
MOIST LLVL CONDITIONS. FAVORING LIGHTER MOS WINDS...PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION DESPITE LIMITED COOLING ON ACCOUNT OF
THE MOIST CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MORE MIXING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW SO RH SHOULD BE A LITTLE
MORE TOLERABLE...WITH HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANTICIPATE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO REMAIN EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD IN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SW EXPECT WITH
ANY BRIEF AND WEAK OUTFLOWS NEARBY. HUMID AFTN CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
CROSSOVER TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FOG RISK LATE TONIGHT...WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AT WORST. WINDS SHOULD COME UP FROM THE WSW MONDAY
MRNG.

ELSEWHERE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMIZE DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA AWAY FROM THE MTNS...BUT SCT CELLS WILL
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH. VCTS
WILL CONTINUE AT KAVL INTO EARLY EVENING...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD THREATEN KHKY IN THE SW TO WSW STEERING FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AWAY FROM ANY TSRA THROUGH EVENING. OTHERWISE...CIGS ARE
GENERALLY UNLIKELY OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MTN VALLEYS
HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR VSBY DEVELOP IN FOG TOWARD
DAWN...PERHAPS BRINGING LOWER CIGS THERE. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MIXING THIS
AFTN KEEPING CROSSOVER TEMPS HIGH. MAINLY SWLY WINDS ACRS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY LIKELY AT KAVL DUE TO
VALLEY EFFECTS IN THIS FLOW.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG/WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 311847
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THOUGH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS
BY ON ITS NW FRINGE AS THEY EXIT THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THESE
DISTURBANCES LARGELY SHOULD LEAVE OUR CWFA UNSCATHED AS THEY PASS
BY...WITH THE NRN MTNS MOST LIKELY TO SEE AN IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. UNDER THE RIDGE...LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME DEGREE OF MIDLEVEL CAPPING THIS AFTN AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE MTNS BEING MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. IN SHORT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO POPS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AS WELL AS MONDAY AFTN. A PASSING VORT MAX THIS EVENING
MIGHT ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENN BORDER PAST THE END
OF HEATING...BUT ELSEWHERE THE FCST IS DRY FOR TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITATIONS SEEN WITH PROFILES...IF ANY
CELLS DO KICK OFF THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES
OWING TO THE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMO...IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
ACRS MOST OF THE AREA. DCAPE VALUES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH GIVEN
ALL THE MOISTURE...BUT ARE PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ON AVERAGE.
SPC HAS ISSUED AN MCD FOR THE UPPER TENN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS INCLUDING THE WNC MTNS TO HIGHLIGHT AN ISOLD MICROBURST
THREAT. IT DOES SEEM THIS CAN/T BE RULED OUT...BUT THE BETTER CASE
CAN BE MADE WEST OF THE MTNS WHERE THERE IS BETTER UPPER FLOW
BENEATH THE TROUGH.

SKY COVER IS A TOUGH CALL FOR TONIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
HOWEVER. DEWPOINTS AND CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE BOTH HIGH DUE TO THE
MOIST LLVL CONDITIONS. FAVORING LIGHTER MOS WINDS...PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION DESPITE LIMITED COOLING ON ACCOUNT OF
THE MOIST CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MORE MIXING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW SO RH SHOULD BE A LITTLE
MORE TOLERABLE...WITH HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR LEVEL CU DECK SHOULD LIFT BEFORE FORMING A CIG IF IT
FORMS A CIG AT ALL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN/AROUND CLOUDY PATCHES...BUT BY MID AFTN THEY
SHOULD PREVAIL SSW. A COUPLE SHOWERS MIGHT POP NEARBY BUT WITH
LARGELY UNFAVORABLE PROFILES FOR CONVECTION...CHANCE AT THE FIELD
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. HUMID AFTN CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CROSSOVER
TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FOG RISK EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH MVFR IS
EXPECTED AT WORST. WINDS SHOULD COME UP FROM THE WSW MONDAY MRNG.

ELSEWHERE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMIZE DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE PIEDMONT...BUT SCT CELLS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH. VCTS
MENTION AT KAVL. CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR 030 EARLY THIS AFTN BUT
LIFT AS THE DAY GOES ON. CIGS UNLIKELY OVER THE TAF TERMINALS THRU
THE NIGHT. MTN VALLEYS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR VSBY DEVELOP
IN FOG TOWARD DAWN...PERHAPS BRINGING CIGS THERE. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MIXING THIS
AFTN KEEPING CROSSOVER TEMPS HIGH. MAINLY SWLY WINDS ACRS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY LIKELY AT KAVL DUE TO
VALLEY EFFECTS IN THIS FLOW.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 311847
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THOUGH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS
BY ON ITS NW FRINGE AS THEY EXIT THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THESE
DISTURBANCES LARGELY SHOULD LEAVE OUR CWFA UNSCATHED AS THEY PASS
BY...WITH THE NRN MTNS MOST LIKELY TO SEE AN IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. UNDER THE RIDGE...LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME DEGREE OF MIDLEVEL CAPPING THIS AFTN AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...PROFILES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE MTNS BEING MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. IN SHORT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO POPS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AS WELL AS MONDAY AFTN. A PASSING VORT MAX THIS EVENING
MIGHT ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TENN BORDER PAST THE END
OF HEATING...BUT ELSEWHERE THE FCST IS DRY FOR TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITATIONS SEEN WITH PROFILES...IF ANY
CELLS DO KICK OFF THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES
OWING TO THE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMO...IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
ACRS MOST OF THE AREA. DCAPE VALUES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH GIVEN
ALL THE MOISTURE...BUT ARE PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ON AVERAGE.
SPC HAS ISSUED AN MCD FOR THE UPPER TENN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS INCLUDING THE WNC MTNS TO HIGHLIGHT AN ISOLD MICROBURST
THREAT. IT DOES SEEM THIS CAN/T BE RULED OUT...BUT THE BETTER CASE
CAN BE MADE WEST OF THE MTNS WHERE THERE IS BETTER UPPER FLOW
BENEATH THE TROUGH.

SKY COVER IS A TOUGH CALL FOR TONIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
HOWEVER. DEWPOINTS AND CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE BOTH HIGH DUE TO THE
MOIST LLVL CONDITIONS. FAVORING LIGHTER MOS WINDS...PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION DESPITE LIMITED COOLING ON ACCOUNT OF
THE MOIST CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MORE MIXING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW SO RH SHOULD BE A LITTLE
MORE TOLERABLE...WITH HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TENN VALLEY TUE
EVENING... POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAK SHEAR...AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE...IT/S NOT CLEAR HOW
LONG INTO TUE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHANCE POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER/SLIGHT DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO
CLIMO FOR WED AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY DRYING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-CLIMO POPS (LOW CHANCE MTNS/SLIGHT
CHANCE EAST) WILL BE ADVERTISED WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WED NIGHT
THRU FRI...MODELS STILL DEPICT UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THU...THEN WEAKENS BY FRI IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE WASHED OUT BY THURSDAY AS A BERMUDA HIGH
RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FRI. DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLUX AND MODERATE
DIURNAL BUOYANCY (1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION. HENCE...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 RANGE. SAT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SOUTH...PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. WITH GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER DPVA...MOIST PROFILE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WE SHOULD SEE RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT ATT. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL FRI INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR LEVEL CU DECK SHOULD LIFT BEFORE FORMING A CIG IF IT
FORMS A CIG AT ALL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN/AROUND CLOUDY PATCHES...BUT BY MID AFTN THEY
SHOULD PREVAIL SSW. A COUPLE SHOWERS MIGHT POP NEARBY BUT WITH
LARGELY UNFAVORABLE PROFILES FOR CONVECTION...CHANCE AT THE FIELD
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. HUMID AFTN CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CROSSOVER
TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FOG RISK EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH MVFR IS
EXPECTED AT WORST. WINDS SHOULD COME UP FROM THE WSW MONDAY MRNG.

ELSEWHERE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMIZE DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE PIEDMONT...BUT SCT CELLS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH. VCTS
MENTION AT KAVL. CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR 030 EARLY THIS AFTN BUT
LIFT AS THE DAY GOES ON. CIGS UNLIKELY OVER THE TAF TERMINALS THRU
THE NIGHT. MTN VALLEYS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR VSBY DEVELOP
IN FOG TOWARD DAWN...PERHAPS BRINGING CIGS THERE. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MIXING THIS
AFTN KEEPING CROSSOVER TEMPS HIGH. MAINLY SWLY WINDS ACRS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY LIKELY AT KAVL DUE TO
VALLEY EFFECTS IN THIS FLOW.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 311816
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE
CWFA BUT DIURNAL CU ARE NOW FILLING IN ACRS SOME AREAS. IT APPEARS
THE CAPPING AND MARGINALLY POOR LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH ARE WORKING TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA
WITH CU LOOKING SHALLOW FOR THE MOST PART. SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTN TO ALLOW MENTIONABLE POPS
EVERYWHERE AT THAT TIME...THOUGH MINIMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE...ELONGATING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROF ENERGY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS
MORNING AS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN NC AND THE UPSTATE.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE LED TO MODERATELY DEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE
OF PRONOUNCED RAIN RATES.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS ARE YIELDING APPROXIMATELY
ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES.  THAT SAID...FORWARD PROPAGATION COMBINED
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FLOODING THREATS
THIS MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS IT PUSHES UP INTERSTATE 85 TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.  THEREFORE
THE FORECAST FEATURES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TO AID IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY 5-10MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH MIXING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO HEAT.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST PROVIDING NEEDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESIDING ON THE PERIPHERY.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INHIBITION WORKING
TO LIMIT CONVECTION.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING EAST TO AID CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH SOLID
CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  POPS WILL TAPER
DOWN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.  IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH SOME DEVIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...UPPER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST IN THE WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH A
LEE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD HELPING PRODUCE A TYPICAL
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEHWERE. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUE NITE
AHEAD OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROF. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THRU THE NITE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
MON NITE RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THU. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE RIDGING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
EVEN THO THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS LEADS TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE RETROGRADING ALLOWING SHORT
WAVES TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
NWLY FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE FRI...THEN WEAKENS IT
AND SUPPRESSES IT TOWARD THE GULF COAST SAT. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
STILL STRONG ENUF TO KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES AND WLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER AIR DIFFERENCES...THE SFC FEATURES ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILAR. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
FRI LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION. THE
GFS THEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...WHILE
LOWS BOUNCE AROUND ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR LEVEL CU DECK SHOULD LIFT BEFORE FORMING A CIG IF IT
FORMS A CIG AT ALL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN/AROUND CLOUDY PATCHES...BUT BY MID AFTN THEY
SHOULD PREVAIL SSW. A COUPLE SHOWERS MIGHT POP NEARBY BUT WITH
LARGELY UNFAVORABLE PROFILES FOR CONVECTION...CHANCE AT THE FIELD
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. HUMID AFTN CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CROSSOVER
TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FOG RISK EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH MVFR IS
EXPECTED AT WORST. WINDS SHOULD COME UP FROM THE WSW MONDAY MRNG.

ELSEWHERE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMIZE DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE PIEDMONT...BUT SCT CELLS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH. VCTS
MENTION AT KAVL. CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR 030 EARLY THIS AFTN BUT
LIFT AS THE DAY GOES ON. CIGS UNLIKELY OVER THE TAF TERMINALS THRU
THE NIGHT. MTN VALLEYS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR VSBY DEVELOP
IN FOG TOWARD DAWN...PERHAPS BRINGING CIGS THERE. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MIXING THIS
AFTN KEEPING CROSSOVER TEMPS HIGH. MAINLY SWLY WINDS ACRS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY LIKELY AT KAVL DUE TO
VALLEY EFFECTS IN THIS FLOW.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 311816
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE
CWFA BUT DIURNAL CU ARE NOW FILLING IN ACRS SOME AREAS. IT APPEARS
THE CAPPING AND MARGINALLY POOR LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH ARE WORKING TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA
WITH CU LOOKING SHALLOW FOR THE MOST PART. SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTN TO ALLOW MENTIONABLE POPS
EVERYWHERE AT THAT TIME...THOUGH MINIMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE...ELONGATING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROF ENERGY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS
MORNING AS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN NC AND THE UPSTATE.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE LED TO MODERATELY DEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE
OF PRONOUNCED RAIN RATES.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS ARE YIELDING APPROXIMATELY
ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES.  THAT SAID...FORWARD PROPAGATION COMBINED
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FLOODING THREATS
THIS MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS IT PUSHES UP INTERSTATE 85 TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.  THEREFORE
THE FORECAST FEATURES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TO AID IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY 5-10MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH MIXING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO HEAT.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST PROVIDING NEEDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESIDING ON THE PERIPHERY.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INHIBITION WORKING
TO LIMIT CONVECTION.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING EAST TO AID CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH SOLID
CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  POPS WILL TAPER
DOWN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.  IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH SOME DEVIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...UPPER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST IN THE WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH A
LEE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD HELPING PRODUCE A TYPICAL
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEHWERE. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUE NITE
AHEAD OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROF. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THRU THE NITE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
MON NITE RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THU. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE RIDGING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
EVEN THO THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS LEADS TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE RETROGRADING ALLOWING SHORT
WAVES TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
NWLY FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE FRI...THEN WEAKENS IT
AND SUPPRESSES IT TOWARD THE GULF COAST SAT. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
STILL STRONG ENUF TO KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES AND WLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER AIR DIFFERENCES...THE SFC FEATURES ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILAR. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
FRI LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION. THE
GFS THEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...WHILE
LOWS BOUNCE AROUND ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR LEVEL CU DECK SHOULD LIFT BEFORE FORMING A CIG IF IT
FORMS A CIG AT ALL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN/AROUND CLOUDY PATCHES...BUT BY MID AFTN THEY
SHOULD PREVAIL SSW. A COUPLE SHOWERS MIGHT POP NEARBY BUT WITH
LARGELY UNFAVORABLE PROFILES FOR CONVECTION...CHANCE AT THE FIELD
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. HUMID AFTN CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CROSSOVER
TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FOG RISK EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH MVFR IS
EXPECTED AT WORST. WINDS SHOULD COME UP FROM THE WSW MONDAY MRNG.

ELSEWHERE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMIZE DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE PIEDMONT...BUT SCT CELLS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH. VCTS
MENTION AT KAVL. CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR 030 EARLY THIS AFTN BUT
LIFT AS THE DAY GOES ON. CIGS UNLIKELY OVER THE TAF TERMINALS THRU
THE NIGHT. MTN VALLEYS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR VSBY DEVELOP
IN FOG TOWARD DAWN...PERHAPS BRINGING CIGS THERE. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIMITED MIXING THIS
AFTN KEEPING CROSSOVER TEMPS HIGH. MAINLY SWLY WINDS ACRS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY LIKELY AT KAVL DUE TO
VALLEY EFFECTS IN THIS FLOW.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 311450
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1050 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHRA FULLY DISSIPATED ACRS THE
AREA THIS AM...THOUGH SFC CONDITIONS ARE VERY MOIST AND DEWPOINTS
HOVER NEAR 70F ON LATEST OBS. WITH HEATING GETTING UNDERWAY THIS HAS
ALLOWED LOW STRATUS OR STRATOCU TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS
MAY RESTRICT FURTHER HEATING TO SOME DEGREE. REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR IS HINTED AT BY THE NAM AND RAP...BUT
THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING VERY POOR LAPSE RATES WHICH MAKE THIS
QUESTIONABLE PARTICULARLY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. MESO GUIDANCE STILL
FOCUSES ON THE MTNS FOR INITIATION AROUND MIDDAY WITH ISOLD-SCTD
CELLS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTN. REVISED POPS AND SKY ON ACCOUNT
OF THESE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS...STILL KEEPING ISOLD WORDING IN THE
PIEDMONT. ALSO BACKED OFF THE THUNDER MENTION UNTIL AFTER NOON IN
MOST PLACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE...ELONGATING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROF ENERGY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS
MORNING AS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN NC AND THE UPSTATE.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE LED TO MODERATELY DEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE
OF PRONOUNCED RAIN RATES.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS ARE YIELDING APPROXIMATELY
ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES.  THAT SAID...FORWARD PROPAGATION COMBINED
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FLOODING THREATS
THIS MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS IT PUSHES UP INTERSTATE 85 TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.  THEREFORE
THE FORECAST FEATURES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TO AID IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY 5-10MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH MIXING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO HEAT.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST PROVIDING NEEDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESIDING ON THE PERIPHERY.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INHIBITION WORKING
TO LIMIT CONVECTION.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING EAST TO AID CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH SOLID
CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  POPS WILL TAPER
DOWN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.  IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH SOME DEVIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...UPPER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST IN THE WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH A
LEE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD HELPING PRODUCE A TYPICAL
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEHWERE. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUE NITE
AHEAD OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROF. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THRU THE NITE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
MON NITE RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THU. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE RIDGING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
EVEN THO THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS LEADS TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE RETROGRADING ALLOWING SHORT
WAVES TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
NWLY FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE FRI...THEN WEAKENS IT
AND SUPPRESSES IT TOWARD THE GULF COAST SAT. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
STILL STRONG ENUF TO KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES AND WLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER AIR DIFFERENCES...THE SFC FEATURES ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILAR. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
FRI LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION. THE
GFS THEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...WHILE
LOWS BOUNCE AROUND ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE AND A WEAK
MIDLEVEL CAP...LOW STRATOCU PERIODICALLY WILL FORM AN MVFR CIG OVER
THE FIELD THIS MORNING...BUT THEY WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT. SKIES WILL
EVENTUALLY FEATURE ONLY BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MIDDAY LASTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO MENTION OF
AFTERNOON TSRA AS LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POOR LAPSE RATES WILL
GREATLY LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID/LATE MORNING AT
ALL SITES AS THE LOW CLOUDS ERODE AND LIFT.  VFR WILL PREVAIL LATE
IN THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MENTION AT KAVL AND KHKY
TO ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH FLOW INCREASING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG/WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 311036
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NC.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS
HAVE FAVORED EARLIER FORECAST AS OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
DECREASING.  LIGHT FOG SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE MIXING AND HEATING COMBINE TO
PROMOTE EROSION.  AS FOR THE FORECAST...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS WHICH
LED TO FURTHER POP INCREASES ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR WHILE LOWERING
POPS TO THE WEST.  ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO
REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE...ELONGATING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROF ENERGY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS
MORNING AS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN NC AND THE UPSTATE.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE LED TO MODERATELY DEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE
OF PRONOUNCED RAIN RATES.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS ARE YIELDING APPROXIMATELY
ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES.  THAT SAID...FORWARD PROPAGATION COMBINED
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FLOODING THREATS
THIS MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS IT PUSHES UP INTERSTATE 85 TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.  THEREFORE
THE FORECAST FEATURES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TO AID IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY 5-10MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH MIXING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO HEAT.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST PROVIDING NEEDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESIDING ON THE PERIPHERY.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INHIBITION WORKING
TO LIMIT CONVECTION.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING EAST TO AID CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH SOLID
CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  POPS WILL TAPER
DOWN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.  IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH SOME DEVIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...UPPER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST IN THE WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH A
LEE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD HELPING PRODUCE A TYPICAL
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEHWERE. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUE NITE
AHEAD OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROF. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THRU THE NITE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
MON NITE RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THU. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE RIDGING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
EVEN THO THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS LEADS TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE RETROGRADING ALLOWING SHORT
WAVES TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
NWLY FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE FRI...THEN WEAKENS IT
AND SUPPRESSES IT TOWARD THE GULF COAST SAT. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
STILL STRONG ENUF TO KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES AND WLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER AIR DIFFERENCES...THE SFC FEATURES ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILAR. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
FRI LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION. THE
GFS THEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...WHILE
LOWS BOUNCE AROUND ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR LEVEL VSBY DUE TO INITIAL SHRA
ACTIVITY.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR WITH A 1HR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR ABOVE
MENTIONED SHRA INDUCED MVFR VISB.  BY 13Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
UNDER BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL STRATUS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT.  SKIES WILL FEATURE BKN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MIDDAY
LASTING THROUGH THE PERIOD.  REMOVED PREVIOUS PROB30 FOR AFTERNOON
TSRA AS LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAP WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
TAF CYCLE AT ALL SITES.  ABOVE MENTIONED BAND OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE SC SITES AND KAVL.
HOWEVER...EXPECTING MVFR/IFR VISB AND OR CIGS TO PERSIST FOR AN HOUR
OR SO BEHIND THE DEPARTING LINE.  INITIALIZED ONLY KHKY WITH WX
MENTION AS LINE OF SHRA WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID/LATE MORNING AT ALL SITES AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SHRA ERODES ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD BASES.  VFR
WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PROB30 MENTION
AT KAVL AND KHKY TO ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH FLOW INCREASING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KGSP       LOW   59%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KGMU       LOW   53%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KAND       MED   63%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 311036
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NC.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS
HAVE FAVORED EARLIER FORECAST AS OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
DECREASING.  LIGHT FOG SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE MIXING AND HEATING COMBINE TO
PROMOTE EROSION.  AS FOR THE FORECAST...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS WHICH
LED TO FURTHER POP INCREASES ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR WHILE LOWERING
POPS TO THE WEST.  ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO
REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE...ELONGATING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROF ENERGY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS
MORNING AS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN NC AND THE UPSTATE.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE LED TO MODERATELY DEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE
OF PRONOUNCED RAIN RATES.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS ARE YIELDING APPROXIMATELY
ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES.  THAT SAID...FORWARD PROPAGATION COMBINED
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FLOODING THREATS
THIS MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS IT PUSHES UP INTERSTATE 85 TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.  THEREFORE
THE FORECAST FEATURES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TO AID IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY 5-10MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH MIXING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO HEAT.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST PROVIDING NEEDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESIDING ON THE PERIPHERY.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INHIBITION WORKING
TO LIMIT CONVECTION.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING EAST TO AID CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH SOLID
CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  POPS WILL TAPER
DOWN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.  IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH SOME DEVIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...UPPER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST IN THE WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH A
LEE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD HELPING PRODUCE A TYPICAL
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEHWERE. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUE NITE
AHEAD OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROF. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THRU THE NITE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
MON NITE RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THU. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE RIDGING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
EVEN THO THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS LEADS TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE RETROGRADING ALLOWING SHORT
WAVES TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
NWLY FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE FRI...THEN WEAKENS IT
AND SUPPRESSES IT TOWARD THE GULF COAST SAT. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
STILL STRONG ENUF TO KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES AND WLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER AIR DIFFERENCES...THE SFC FEATURES ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILAR. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
FRI LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION. THE
GFS THEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...WHILE
LOWS BOUNCE AROUND ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR LEVEL VSBY DUE TO INITIAL SHRA
ACTIVITY.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR WITH A 1HR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR ABOVE
MENTIONED SHRA INDUCED MVFR VISB.  BY 13Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
UNDER BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL STRATUS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT.  SKIES WILL FEATURE BKN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MIDDAY
LASTING THROUGH THE PERIOD.  REMOVED PREVIOUS PROB30 FOR AFTERNOON
TSRA AS LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAP WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
TAF CYCLE AT ALL SITES.  ABOVE MENTIONED BAND OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE SC SITES AND KAVL.
HOWEVER...EXPECTING MVFR/IFR VISB AND OR CIGS TO PERSIST FOR AN HOUR
OR SO BEHIND THE DEPARTING LINE.  INITIALIZED ONLY KHKY WITH WX
MENTION AS LINE OF SHRA WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID/LATE MORNING AT ALL SITES AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SHRA ERODES ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD BASES.  VFR
WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PROB30 MENTION
AT KAVL AND KHKY TO ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH FLOW INCREASING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KGSP       LOW   59%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KGMU       LOW   53%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KAND       MED   63%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 310740
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE...ELONGATING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROF ENERGY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS
MORNING AS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN NC AND THE UPSTATE.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE LED TO MODERATELY DEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE
OF PRONOUNCED RAIN RATES.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS ARE YIELDING APPROXIMATELY
ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES.  THAT SAID...FORWARD PROPAGATION COMBINED
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FLOODING THREATS
THIS MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS IT PUSHES UP INTERSTATE 85 TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.  THEREFORE
THE FORECAST FEATURES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TO AID IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY 5-10MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH MIXING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO HEAT.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST PROVIDING NEEDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESIDING ON THE PERIPHERY.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INHIBITION WORKING
TO LIMIT CONVECTION.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING EAST TO AID CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH SOLID
CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  POPS WILL TAPER
DOWN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.  IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH SOME DEVIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...UPPER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST IN THE WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH A
LEE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD HELPING PRODUCE A TYPICAL
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEHWERE. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUE NITE
AHEAD OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROF. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THRU THE NITE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
MON NITE RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THU. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE RIDGING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
EVEN THO THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS LEADS TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE RETROGRADING ALLOWING SHORT
WAVES TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
NWLY FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE FRI...THEN WEAKENS IT
AND SUPPRESSES IT TOWARD THE GULF COAST SAT. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
STILL STRONG ENUF TO KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES AND WLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER AIR DIFFERENCES...THE SFC FEATURES ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILAR. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
FRI LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION. THE
GFS THEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...WHILE
LOWS BOUNCE AROUND ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY AHEAD OF POSSIBLE
VISB REDUCTIONS NEAR DAYBREAK.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR WITH 07KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER SCT LOW VFR STRATOCU.  INTRODUCED 2HR TEMPO AT
11Z TO ACCOUNT FOR DECOUPLING PBL AND POTENTIAL MVFR LEVEL FOG
RESTRICTIONS.  BY 13Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE UNDER BKN/OVC LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MIXES OUT.  BY MIDDAY...SKIES WILL FEATURE SCT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.  AS FOR WX...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE INDICATE BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST GA WILL NOT
SURVIVE THE TRIP EAST INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...THEREFORE NO WX MENTION
FOR THIS FEATURE.  HOWEVER...AS THE PROFILE HEATS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY CANNOT RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE DAY
THEREFORE KEPT PREVIOUS PROB30 FOR SUCH.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL SITES.  ABOVE MENTIONED BAND
OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST AFFECTING THE SC SITES ALONG WITH
KAVL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  THEREFORE EACH TAF LOCATION FEATURES
PREVAILING VCTS LEADING UP TO ARRIVAL WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AND IFR
CIGS/VISB DURING PASSAGE.  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER
DAYBREAK AT ALL SITES AS ABOVE MENTIONED SHRA/TSRA ERODES ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUD BASES.  VFR WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PROB30 MENTION AT KAVL AND KHKY TO ACCOUNT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY WITH FLOW INCREASING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   60%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   66%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   69%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 310740
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LIKEWISE...ELONGATING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROF ENERGY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM THIS
MORNING AS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN NC AND THE UPSTATE.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER ENERGY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE LED TO MODERATELY DEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE
OF PRONOUNCED RAIN RATES.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION HAVE
INDICATED THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS ARE YIELDING APPROXIMATELY
ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES.  THAT SAID...FORWARD PROPAGATION COMBINED
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FLOODING THREATS
THIS MORNING.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AS IT PUSHES UP INTERSTATE 85 TOWARDS THE NC PIEDMONT.  THEREFORE
THE FORECAST FEATURES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPSTATE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL BENEATH CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TO AID IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY 5-10MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THIS SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT WITH MIXING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO HEAT.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST PROVIDING NEEDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESIDING ON THE PERIPHERY.  AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INHIBITION WORKING
TO LIMIT CONVECTION.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE ENERGY
SLIDING EAST TO AID CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH SOLID
CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  POPS WILL TAPER
DOWN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.  IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH SOME DEVIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...UPPER SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST IN THE WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN CONUS KEEPING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH A
LEE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD HELPING PRODUCE A TYPICAL
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS
AND ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEHWERE. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS
SCENARIO IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA TUE NITE
AHEAD OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER TROF. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THRU THE NITE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
MON NITE RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUE NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THU. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS STILL ABLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE RIDGING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.
EVEN THO THE FRONT WASHES OUT...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS LEADS TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE RETROGRADING ALLOWING SHORT
WAVES TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND SAT IN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
NWLY FLOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE FRI...THEN WEAKENS IT
AND SUPPRESSES IT TOWARD THE GULF COAST SAT. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS
STILL STRONG ENUF TO KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES AND WLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER AIR DIFFERENCES...THE SFC FEATURES ARE
REMARKABLY SIMILAR. THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY
FRI LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION. THE
GFS THEN BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...WHILE
LOWS BOUNCE AROUND ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY AHEAD OF POSSIBLE
VISB REDUCTIONS NEAR DAYBREAK.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR WITH 07KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER SCT LOW VFR STRATOCU.  INTRODUCED 2HR TEMPO AT
11Z TO ACCOUNT FOR DECOUPLING PBL AND POTENTIAL MVFR LEVEL FOG
RESTRICTIONS.  BY 13Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE UNDER BKN/OVC LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MIXES OUT.  BY MIDDAY...SKIES WILL FEATURE SCT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.  AS FOR WX...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE INDICATE BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST GA WILL NOT
SURVIVE THE TRIP EAST INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...THEREFORE NO WX MENTION
FOR THIS FEATURE.  HOWEVER...AS THE PROFILE HEATS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY CANNOT RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE DAY
THEREFORE KEPT PREVIOUS PROB30 FOR SUCH.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL SITES.  ABOVE MENTIONED BAND
OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST AFFECTING THE SC SITES ALONG WITH
KAVL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  THEREFORE EACH TAF LOCATION FEATURES
PREVAILING VCTS LEADING UP TO ARRIVAL WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AND IFR
CIGS/VISB DURING PASSAGE.  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER
DAYBREAK AT ALL SITES AS ABOVE MENTIONED SHRA/TSRA ERODES ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUD BASES.  VFR WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PROB30 MENTION AT KAVL AND KHKY TO ACCOUNT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY WITH FLOW INCREASING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   60%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   66%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   69%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 310550
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SUNDAY...BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND SOUTHWEST NC THIS MORNING.
LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIPIATION RATES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH PER HOUR.  AS THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC...EXPECTING A
WEAKENING TREND TO PREVAIL WITH DECREASING RAIN RATES LIKELY.  THAT
SAID...DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THESE AFFECTED
ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH POPS TRENDING DOWN NEAR
DAYBREAK.  ALSO MADE QPF ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED
RAIN RATES WHICH DID NOT REVEAL ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AS FORWARD
PROPAGATION REMAINS SUFFICIENT.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

EVENING UPDATE...MADE A NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS
OVERNIGHT. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND
THE LATEST OP MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE IDEA OF A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA ORGANIZING ACROSS THE SW/RN ZONES ARND 06Z THEN PUSHING
NE THRU 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. WONT ANTICIPATE STRONG WX WITH THIS
LINE AS IT MOVES UNDERNEATH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. OTHERWISE...A FG THREAT ACROSS
THE MTNS AND NC FTHILLS WILL BE CURTAILED WITH CONTINUED BKN/OVC
CLOUD COVER...YET PATCHY VSBYS IN THE ONE MILE OR LESS RANGE COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS THIN
FROM THE SW AFT 09Z. MIN TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST
LOCALE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED SLOW COOLING
RATES.

AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IS
POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY AHEAD OF POSSIBLE
VISB REDUCTIONS NEAR DAYBREAK.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR WITH 07KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER SCT LOW VFR STRATOCU.  INTRODUCED 2HR TEMPO AT
11Z TO ACCOUNT FOR DECOUPLING PBL AND POTENTIAL MVFR LEVEL FOG
RESTRICTIONS.  BY 13Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE UNDER BKN/OVC LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MIXES OUT.  BY MIDDAY...SKIES WILL FEATURE SCT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.  AS FOR WX...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE INDICATE BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST GA WILL NOT
SURVIVE THE TRIP EAST INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...THEREFORE NO WX MENTION
FOR THIS FEATURE.  HOWEVER...AS THE PROFILE HEATS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY CANNOT RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE DAY
THEREFORE KEPT PREVIOUS PROB30 FOR SUCH.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL SITES.  ABOVE MENTIONED BAND
OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST AFFECTING THE SC SITES ALONG WITH
KAVL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  THEREFORE EACH TAF LOCATION FEATURES
PREVAILING VCTS LEADING UP TO ARRIVAL WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AND IFR
CIGS/VISB DURING PASSAGE.  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER
DAYBREAK AT ALL SITES AS ABOVE MENTIONED SHRA/TSRA ERODES ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUD BASES.  VFR WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PROB30 MENTION AT KAVL AND KHKY TO ACCOUNT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY WITH FLOW INCREASING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   72%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  84%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   79%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     LOW   58%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  81%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 310550
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT SUNDAY...BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND SOUTHWEST NC THIS MORNING.
LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIPIATION RATES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS RECEIVING NEARLY AN INCH PER HOUR.  AS THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC...EXPECTING A
WEAKENING TREND TO PREVAIL WITH DECREASING RAIN RATES LIKELY.  THAT
SAID...DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THESE AFFECTED
ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH POPS TRENDING DOWN NEAR
DAYBREAK.  ALSO MADE QPF ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED
RAIN RATES WHICH DID NOT REVEAL ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AS FORWARD
PROPAGATION REMAINS SUFFICIENT.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

EVENING UPDATE...MADE A NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS
OVERNIGHT. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND
THE LATEST OP MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE IDEA OF A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA ORGANIZING ACROSS THE SW/RN ZONES ARND 06Z THEN PUSHING
NE THRU 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. WONT ANTICIPATE STRONG WX WITH THIS
LINE AS IT MOVES UNDERNEATH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. OTHERWISE...A FG THREAT ACROSS
THE MTNS AND NC FTHILLS WILL BE CURTAILED WITH CONTINUED BKN/OVC
CLOUD COVER...YET PATCHY VSBYS IN THE ONE MILE OR LESS RANGE COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS THIN
FROM THE SW AFT 09Z. MIN TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST
LOCALE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED SLOW COOLING
RATES.

AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IS
POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY AHEAD OF POSSIBLE
VISB REDUCTIONS NEAR DAYBREAK.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR WITH 07KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER SCT LOW VFR STRATOCU.  INTRODUCED 2HR TEMPO AT
11Z TO ACCOUNT FOR DECOUPLING PBL AND POTENTIAL MVFR LEVEL FOG
RESTRICTIONS.  BY 13Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE UNDER BKN/OVC LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MIXES OUT.  BY MIDDAY...SKIES WILL FEATURE SCT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.  AS FOR WX...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE INDICATE BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST GA WILL NOT
SURVIVE THE TRIP EAST INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...THEREFORE NO WX MENTION
FOR THIS FEATURE.  HOWEVER...AS THE PROFILE HEATS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY CANNOT RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE DAY
THEREFORE KEPT PREVIOUS PROB30 FOR SUCH.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL SITES.  ABOVE MENTIONED BAND
OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST AFFECTING THE SC SITES ALONG WITH
KAVL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  THEREFORE EACH TAF LOCATION FEATURES
PREVAILING VCTS LEADING UP TO ARRIVAL WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AND IFR
CIGS/VISB DURING PASSAGE.  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER
DAYBREAK AT ALL SITES AS ABOVE MENTIONED SHRA/TSRA ERODES ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUD BASES.  VFR WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PROB30 MENTION AT KAVL AND KHKY TO ACCOUNT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY WITH FLOW INCREASING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   72%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  84%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   79%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     LOW   58%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  81%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 310200
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...MADE A NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS
OVERNIGHT. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND
THE LATEST OP MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE IDEA OF A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA ORGANIZING ACROSS THE SW/RN ZONES ARND 06Z THEN PUSHING
NE THRU 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. WONT ANTICIPATE STRONG WX WITH THIS
LINE AS IT MOVES UNDERNEATH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. OTHERWISE...A FG THREAT ACROSS
THE MTNS AND NC FTHILLS WILL BE CURTAILED WITH CONTINUED BKN/OVC
CLOUD COVER...YET PATCHY VSBYS IN THE ONE MILE OR LESS RANGE COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS THIN
FROM THE SW AFT 09Z. MIN TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST
LOCALE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED SLOW COOLING RATES.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...CONV ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE
BEST LIFT REMAINING WEST OF THE ULVL RIDGE. THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH
HAVE A LINE OF -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ARND 06Z OR SO ACROSS THE SW/RN
ZONES AND SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. THIS HAS BEEN
PICKED UP BY THE LATEST 18Z GFS AS WELL. ANYWAY...THIS SCENARIO WILL
BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...EXPECT ISOL CONV ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW/RN NC MTNS
AND NE GA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CTG LIGHTNING
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS PROBABLE AS WELL.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...LATEST COMP RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONV ACTIVITY
CONFINED ACROSS THE WRN ZONES OF THE CWFA. A 4 DEGREE F DROP OF SFC
TD/S IN THE PAST 3 HRS HAS KEPT SBCAPE VALUES LOW EAST OF THIS AREA
WHILE STRONG H5 RIDGING HAS NULLIFIED MLVL LAPSE RATES. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND THE BEST H85
MOIST TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN TN. THUS...ISOL TO SCT CONV
WILL CONTINUE WEST ALIGNED IN MECH LIFT AND SOME MEASURE OF ULVL
DPVA...WITH ISOL CELLS LIKELY DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
NC FTHILLS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR SEVERE THRU 800 PM
WITH ECHO TOPS ONLY REACHING 35-40 KFT ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY WEAK
UPDRAFTS.

AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IS
POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT TIL ARND 10Z OR SO
WHEN MVFR VSBY MAY FORM THROUGH 14Z. ACTUAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A LINE OF -SHRA OR TSRA
REACHING THE TERMINAL VICINITY ARND 10Z...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
DISIPATE TO THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR CONV SUN LATE AFTERNOON
AND WILL MENTION WITH A PROB30 AT 20Z.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT KAVL AND KHKY...BUT MVFR/IFR VSBY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFT 08Z....WILL GO MVFR FOR THIS ISSUANCE. A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA COULD WORK ACROSS THE MTNS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AFT 08Z
AS WELL AND THIS WILL BE COVERED WITH VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT
VCTS AT KAVL THROUGH 12Z/13Z. CONV ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT MAINLY KAVL
AND KHKY SUN AFTERNOON...BUT ALL SITES HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CHANCES TO
WARRANT A LATE PERIOD PROB30 TSRA.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  99%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 310200
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...MADE A NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS
OVERNIGHT. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND
THE LATEST OP MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE IDEA OF A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA ORGANIZING ACROSS THE SW/RN ZONES ARND 06Z THEN PUSHING
NE THRU 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. WONT ANTICIPATE STRONG WX WITH THIS
LINE AS IT MOVES UNDERNEATH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. OTHERWISE...A FG THREAT ACROSS
THE MTNS AND NC FTHILLS WILL BE CURTAILED WITH CONTINUED BKN/OVC
CLOUD COVER...YET PATCHY VSBYS IN THE ONE MILE OR LESS RANGE COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS THIN
FROM THE SW AFT 09Z. MIN TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST
LOCALE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED SLOW COOLING RATES.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...CONV ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE
BEST LIFT REMAINING WEST OF THE ULVL RIDGE. THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH
HAVE A LINE OF -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ARND 06Z OR SO ACROSS THE SW/RN
ZONES AND SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. THIS HAS BEEN
PICKED UP BY THE LATEST 18Z GFS AS WELL. ANYWAY...THIS SCENARIO WILL
BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...EXPECT ISOL CONV ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW/RN NC MTNS
AND NE GA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CTG LIGHTNING
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS PROBABLE AS WELL.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...LATEST COMP RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONV ACTIVITY
CONFINED ACROSS THE WRN ZONES OF THE CWFA. A 4 DEGREE F DROP OF SFC
TD/S IN THE PAST 3 HRS HAS KEPT SBCAPE VALUES LOW EAST OF THIS AREA
WHILE STRONG H5 RIDGING HAS NULLIFIED MLVL LAPSE RATES. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND THE BEST H85
MOIST TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN TN. THUS...ISOL TO SCT CONV
WILL CONTINUE WEST ALIGNED IN MECH LIFT AND SOME MEASURE OF ULVL
DPVA...WITH ISOL CELLS LIKELY DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
NC FTHILLS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR SEVERE THRU 800 PM
WITH ECHO TOPS ONLY REACHING 35-40 KFT ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY WEAK
UPDRAFTS.

AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IS
POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT TIL ARND 10Z OR SO
WHEN MVFR VSBY MAY FORM THROUGH 14Z. ACTUAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A LINE OF -SHRA OR TSRA
REACHING THE TERMINAL VICINITY ARND 10Z...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
DISIPATE TO THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR CONV SUN LATE AFTERNOON
AND WILL MENTION WITH A PROB30 AT 20Z.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT KAVL AND KHKY...BUT MVFR/IFR VSBY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFT 08Z....WILL GO MVFR FOR THIS ISSUANCE. A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA COULD WORK ACROSS THE MTNS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AFT 08Z
AS WELL AND THIS WILL BE COVERED WITH VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT
VCTS AT KAVL THROUGH 12Z/13Z. CONV ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT MAINLY KAVL
AND KHKY SUN AFTERNOON...BUT ALL SITES HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CHANCES TO
WARRANT A LATE PERIOD PROB30 TSRA.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  99%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 302350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...CONV ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE
BEST LIFT REMAINING WEST OF THE ULVL RIDGE. THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH
HAVE A LINE OF -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ARND 06Z OR SO ACROSS THE SW/RN
ZONES AND SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. THIS HAS BEEN
PICKED UP BY THE LATEST 18Z GFS AS WELL. ANYWAY...THIS SCENARIO WILL
BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...EXPECT ISOL CONV ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW/RN NC MTNS
AND NE GA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CTG LIGHTNING
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS PROBABLE AS WELL.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...LATEST COMP RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONV ACTIVITY
CONFINED ACROSS THE WRN ZONES OF THE CWFA. A 4 DEGREE F DROP OF SFC
TD/S IN THE PAST 3 HRS HAS KEPT SBCAPE VALUES LOW EAST OF THIS AREA
WHILE STRONG H5 RIDGING HAS NULLIFIED MLVL LAPSE RATES. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND THE BEST H85
MOIST TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN TN. THUS...ISOL TO SCT CONV
WILL CONTINUE WEST ALIGNED IN MECH LIFT AND SOME MEASURE OF ULVL
DPVA...WITH ISOL CELLS LIKELY DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
NC FTHILLS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR SEVERE THRU 800 PM
WITH ECHO TOPS ONLY REACHING 35-40 KFT ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY WEAK
UPDRAFTS.

AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IS
POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT TIL ARND 10Z OR SO
WHEN MVFR VSBY MAY FORM THROUGH 14Z. ACTUAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A LINE OF -SHRA OR TSRA
REACHING THE TERMINAL VICINITY ARND 10Z...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
DISIPATE TO THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR CONV SUN LATE AFTERNOON
AND WILL MENTION WITH A PROB30 AT 20Z.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT KAVL AND KHKY...BUT MVFR/IFR VSBY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFT 08Z....WILL GO MVFR FOR THIS ISSUANCE. A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA COULD WORK ACROSS THE MTNS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AFT 08Z
AS WELL AND THIS WILL BE COVERED WITH VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT
VCTS AT KAVL THROUGH 12Z/13Z. CONV ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT MAINLY KAVL
AND KHKY SUN AFTERNOON...BUT ALL SITES HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CHANCES TO
WARRANT A LATE PERIOD PROB30 TSRA.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 302350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...CONV ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE
BEST LIFT REMAINING WEST OF THE ULVL RIDGE. THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH
HAVE A LINE OF -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ARND 06Z OR SO ACROSS THE SW/RN
ZONES AND SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. THIS HAS BEEN
PICKED UP BY THE LATEST 18Z GFS AS WELL. ANYWAY...THIS SCENARIO WILL
BE LOOKED AT MORE CLOSELY WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...EXPECT ISOL CONV ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW/RN NC MTNS
AND NE GA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CTG LIGHTNING
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS PROBABLE AS WELL.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...LATEST COMP RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONV ACTIVITY
CONFINED ACROSS THE WRN ZONES OF THE CWFA. A 4 DEGREE F DROP OF SFC
TD/S IN THE PAST 3 HRS HAS KEPT SBCAPE VALUES LOW EAST OF THIS AREA
WHILE STRONG H5 RIDGING HAS NULLIFIED MLVL LAPSE RATES. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND THE BEST H85
MOIST TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN TN. THUS...ISOL TO SCT CONV
WILL CONTINUE WEST ALIGNED IN MECH LIFT AND SOME MEASURE OF ULVL
DPVA...WITH ISOL CELLS LIKELY DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
NC FTHILLS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR SEVERE THRU 800 PM
WITH ECHO TOPS ONLY REACHING 35-40 KFT ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY WEAK
UPDRAFTS.

AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IS
POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT TIL ARND 10Z OR SO
WHEN MVFR VSBY MAY FORM THROUGH 14Z. ACTUAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A LINE OF -SHRA OR TSRA
REACHING THE TERMINAL VICINITY ARND 10Z...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
DISIPATE TO THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR CONV SUN LATE AFTERNOON
AND WILL MENTION WITH A PROB30 AT 20Z.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT KAVL AND KHKY...BUT MVFR/IFR VSBY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFT 08Z....WILL GO MVFR FOR THIS ISSUANCE. A LINE OF
-SHRA/TSRA COULD WORK ACROSS THE MTNS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AFT 08Z
AS WELL AND THIS WILL BE COVERED WITH VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT
VCTS AT KAVL THROUGH 12Z/13Z. CONV ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT MAINLY KAVL
AND KHKY SUN AFTERNOON...BUT ALL SITES HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CHANCES TO
WARRANT A LATE PERIOD PROB30 TSRA.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 302038
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
430 PM EDT UPDATE...LATEST COMP RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONV ACTIVITY
CONFINED ACROSS THE WRN ZONES OF THE CWFA. A 4 DEGREE F DROP OF SFC
TD/S IN THE PAST 3 HRS HAS KEPT SBCAPE VALUES LOW EAST OF THIS AREA
WHILE STRONG H5 RIDGING HAS NULLIFIED MLVL LAPSE RATES. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND THE BEST H85
MOIST TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN TN. THUS...ISOL TO SCT CONV
WILL CONTINUE WEST ALIGNED IN MECH LIFT AND SOME MEASURE OF ULVL
DPVA...WITH ISOL CELLS LIKELY DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
NC FTHILLS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR SEVERE THRU 800 PM
WITH ECHO TOPS ONLY REACHING 35-40 KFT ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY
WEAK UPDRAFTS.

AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IS
POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SCT-BKN LOW VFR CLOUDS. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
CAPPED DUE TO DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS
CIRCA 12Z.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG APPEAR LESS
LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER WITH
CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE CARRIED A VCTS AT
KAVL.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  96%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     HIGH  96%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   71%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  96%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...LG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 302038
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
430 PM EDT UPDATE...LATEST COMP RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONV ACTIVITY
CONFINED ACROSS THE WRN ZONES OF THE CWFA. A 4 DEGREE F DROP OF SFC
TD/S IN THE PAST 3 HRS HAS KEPT SBCAPE VALUES LOW EAST OF THIS AREA
WHILE STRONG H5 RIDGING HAS NULLIFIED MLVL LAPSE RATES. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND THE BEST H85
MOIST TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN TN. THUS...ISOL TO SCT CONV
WILL CONTINUE WEST ALIGNED IN MECH LIFT AND SOME MEASURE OF ULVL
DPVA...WITH ISOL CELLS LIKELY DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
NC FTHILLS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR SEVERE THRU 800 PM
WITH ECHO TOPS ONLY REACHING 35-40 KFT ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY
WEAK UPDRAFTS.

AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY IS
POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF RESPONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SCT-BKN LOW VFR CLOUDS. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
CAPPED DUE TO DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS
CIRCA 12Z.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG APPEAR LESS
LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER WITH
CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE CARRIED A VCTS AT
KAVL.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  96%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     HIGH  96%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   71%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  96%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...LG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 301841
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...LATEST CAM`S SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE NUDGED THE POPS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND THE MOUNTAINS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER NE GA AND
THE SW MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING SO HAVE
BUMPED POPS UPWARD THERE PER LATEST CAMS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
SPURIOUS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY QPF THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS IN THE
NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SUCH
A RESPONSE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER MODEL.

IN REGARD TO THE BIG PICTURE...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FIRST WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
THE EALRY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK
WIND FIELDS... SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY IS POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES BY TO THE WEST COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM SHOWING MUCH QPF REPSONSE
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HENCE...HAVE DIALED BACK POPS TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOLD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
OCCUR.

USED OUR CONSALL BLEND TO POPULATE MOST FIELDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
NUMBERS...THOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES LESS WARM IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MORE COVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STANDARD LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (30 PERCENT MTNS/20
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN) MON AND TUE AFTERNOONS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS BY TUE
EVENING...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO FRI AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF STATES. BY SAT...WEAK UPPER NWLY FLOW WILL SET UP AS THE CENTER
OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA ON WED AND BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BY THU. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SE BY FRI
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAY 7. AS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE
MENTIONED 30/40 POPS WED/THU DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRI/SAT...DIURNAL BUOYANCY AND
MOISTURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EACH
DAY...MAINTAINING POPS IN THE 30/40 RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SCT-BKN LOW VFR CLOUDS. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
CAPPED DUE TO DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS
CIRCA 12Z.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG APPEAR LESS
LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER WITH
CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE CARRIED A VCTS AT
KAVL.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  89%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   64%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  92%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...LG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 301803
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...LATEST CAM`S AND 12Z GFS/GEM CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA
OF SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NE GA AND THE SW MOUNTAINS BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. THE 12Z NAM IS ALL
ALONE IN DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION AND RESULTING HEAVY QPF OVER THE
NC FOOTHILLS/PIEMDMONT LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE REGARDED AS
SPURIOUS AND NOT INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED MOST
FIELDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BY BLENDING IN LATEST CONSSHORT. THIS
RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

AS OF 930 AM...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL HANGING IN THERE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...FOOTHILLS AND EVEN THE
PIEDMONT. EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 1030 AM ALL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST CAMPOP STILL
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I BLENDED IN THE
CAMPOP TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT AND RAISED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING OVER THE SW
MOUNTAINS AND NE GA. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS.

AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...EARLIER 2KFT STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER
WESTERN NC HAS RECEDED TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR JUST ENOUGH COOLING
TO YIELD PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WHILE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
PERSISTING FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  OTHERWISE....TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...RATHER NICE DAY IN STORE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE MEAN FLOW PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE TROF BENEATH AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME.  CLOSER TO HOME...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FROM OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR EXPANDING
STRATUS CLOUD DECK.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SOME AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  THAT
SAID...ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT COOLING SOMEWHAT
THEREBY DELAYING/PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEYOND DAYBREAK AS HEATING WORKS TO ERODE
LOW STRATUS/FOG PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.  LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 5-10MPH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CU AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA CONVEYOR BELT AND SURFACE TROFFING WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROMOTE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING ALOFT.  SPEAKING
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN...POPS WILL REMAIN NON MENTIONABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS
BY LATE EVENING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE MOISTURE AXIS
APPROACHING AND ALSO PROXIMITY OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE LEADING TO WEAKER
INHIBITION FURTHER WEST.  THAT SAID...PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY MINIMAL
CAPE AND WOULD LIKELY NOT YIELD ROBUST UPDRAFTS LEADING TO SUSTAINED
CONVECTION.  THUS...ONLY EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING A PRIMARY THREAT WHICH WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  POPS WILL REMAIN AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS.  ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS BETTER SKY COVER LIMITS HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND NUDGE THE SERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AS THE ANTICYCLONE DROPS TO THE GA COAST AND RETROGRADES INTO GA MON
NITE. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVES
THRU. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUNDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. CAP
DOES ERODE DURING THE DAY...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...POP HAS BEEN LOWERED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT KEPT IN THE SCT RANGE AS THERE WILL BE SOME
FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THE CONTINUED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS...LIKELY POP IS RETAINED THERE.
GUIDANCE ALSO IN AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER PW VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST...LEADING TO ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
SVR STORMS SHUD BE ISOLATED AS WELL WITH WEAK SHEAR. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HAVE DROPPED POP ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT KEPT IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE. STILL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE MTNS...SO POP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES MONDAY AND MONDAY NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS TUE KEEPING THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OFF SHORE WED...RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THU AND
FRI. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AS
THE TROF MOVES EAST TUE. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WED...
BUT A LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CWFA. THE FRONT DISSIPATES THU BUT
LEAVES A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH MOVES IN ON THU AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAP THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE MTNS THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRI WHEN THEY DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SCT-BKN LOW VFR CLOUDS. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
CAPPED DUE TO DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS
CIRCA 12Z.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG APPEAR LESS
LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER WITH
CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE CARRIED A VCTS AT
KAVL.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  89%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   64%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  92%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...LG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 301803
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...LATEST CAM`S AND 12Z GFS/GEM CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA
OF SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NE GA AND THE SW MOUNTAINS BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. THE 12Z NAM IS ALL
ALONE IN DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION AND RESULTING HEAVY QPF OVER THE
NC FOOTHILLS/PIEMDMONT LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE REGARDED AS
SPURIOUS AND NOT INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED MOST
FIELDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BY BLENDING IN LATEST CONSSHORT. THIS
RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

AS OF 930 AM...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL HANGING IN THERE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...FOOTHILLS AND EVEN THE
PIEDMONT. EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 1030 AM ALL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST CAMPOP STILL
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I BLENDED IN THE
CAMPOP TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT AND RAISED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING OVER THE SW
MOUNTAINS AND NE GA. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS.

AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...EARLIER 2KFT STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER
WESTERN NC HAS RECEDED TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR JUST ENOUGH COOLING
TO YIELD PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WHILE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
PERSISTING FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  OTHERWISE....TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...RATHER NICE DAY IN STORE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE MEAN FLOW PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE TROF BENEATH AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME.  CLOSER TO HOME...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FROM OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR EXPANDING
STRATUS CLOUD DECK.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SOME AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  THAT
SAID...ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT COOLING SOMEWHAT
THEREBY DELAYING/PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEYOND DAYBREAK AS HEATING WORKS TO ERODE
LOW STRATUS/FOG PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.  LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 5-10MPH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CU AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA CONVEYOR BELT AND SURFACE TROFFING WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROMOTE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING ALOFT.  SPEAKING
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN...POPS WILL REMAIN NON MENTIONABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS
BY LATE EVENING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE MOISTURE AXIS
APPROACHING AND ALSO PROXIMITY OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE LEADING TO WEAKER
INHIBITION FURTHER WEST.  THAT SAID...PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY MINIMAL
CAPE AND WOULD LIKELY NOT YIELD ROBUST UPDRAFTS LEADING TO SUSTAINED
CONVECTION.  THUS...ONLY EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING A PRIMARY THREAT WHICH WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  POPS WILL REMAIN AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS.  ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS BETTER SKY COVER LIMITS HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND NUDGE THE SERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AS THE ANTICYCLONE DROPS TO THE GA COAST AND RETROGRADES INTO GA MON
NITE. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVES
THRU. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUNDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. CAP
DOES ERODE DURING THE DAY...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...POP HAS BEEN LOWERED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT KEPT IN THE SCT RANGE AS THERE WILL BE SOME
FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THE CONTINUED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS...LIKELY POP IS RETAINED THERE.
GUIDANCE ALSO IN AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER PW VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST...LEADING TO ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
SVR STORMS SHUD BE ISOLATED AS WELL WITH WEAK SHEAR. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HAVE DROPPED POP ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT KEPT IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE. STILL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE MTNS...SO POP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES MONDAY AND MONDAY NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS TUE KEEPING THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OFF SHORE WED...RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THU AND
FRI. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AS
THE TROF MOVES EAST TUE. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WED...
BUT A LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CWFA. THE FRONT DISSIPATES THU BUT
LEAVES A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH MOVES IN ON THU AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAP THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE MTNS THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRI WHEN THEY DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SCT-BKN LOW VFR CLOUDS. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
CAPPED DUE TO DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS
CIRCA 12Z.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG APPEAR LESS
LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER WITH
CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE CARRIED A VCTS AT
KAVL.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  89%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   64%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  92%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...LG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 301616
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1216 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM...LATEST CAM`S AND 12Z GFS/GEM CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA
OF SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NE GA AND THE SW MOUNTAINS BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE THEN SPREADING NE INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TN. THE 12Z NAM IS ALL
ALONE IN DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION AND RESULTING HEAVY QPF OVER THE
NC FOOTHILLS/PIEMDMONT LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE REGARDED AS
SPURIOUS AND NOT INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED MOST
FIELDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BY BLENDING IN LATEST CONSSHORT. THIS
RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

AS OF 930 AM...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL HANGING IN THERE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...FOOTHILLS AND EVEN THE
PIEDMONT. EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 1030 AM ALL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST CAMPOP STILL
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I BLENDED IN THE
CAMPOP TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT AND RAISED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING OVER THE SW
MOUNTAINS AND NE GA. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS.

AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...EARLIER 2KFT STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER
WESTERN NC HAS RECEDED TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR JUST ENOUGH COOLING
TO YIELD PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WHILE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
PERSISTING FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  OTHERWISE....TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...RATHER NICE DAY IN STORE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE MEAN FLOW PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE TROF BENEATH AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME.  CLOSER TO HOME...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FROM OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR EXPANDING
STRATUS CLOUD DECK.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SOME AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  THAT
SAID...ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT COOLING SOMEWHAT
THEREBY DELAYING/PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEYOND DAYBREAK AS HEATING WORKS TO ERODE
LOW STRATUS/FOG PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.  LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 5-10MPH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CU AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA CONVEYOR BELT AND SURFACE TROFFING WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROMOTE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING ALOFT.  SPEAKING
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN...POPS WILL REMAIN NON MENTIONABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS
BY LATE EVENING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE MOISTURE AXIS
APPROACHING AND ALSO PROXIMITY OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE LEADING TO WEAKER
INHIBITION FURTHER WEST.  THAT SAID...PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY MINIMAL
CAPE AND WOULD LIKELY NOT YIELD ROBUST UPDRAFTS LEADING TO SUSTAINED
CONVECTION.  THUS...ONLY EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING A PRIMARY THREAT WHICH WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  POPS WILL REMAIN AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS.  ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS BETTER SKY COVER LIMITS HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND NUDGE THE SERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AS THE ANTICYCLONE DROPS TO THE GA COAST AND RETROGRADES INTO GA MON
NITE. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVES
THRU. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUNDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. CAP
DOES ERODE DURING THE DAY...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...POP HAS BEEN LOWERED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT KEPT IN THE SCT RANGE AS THERE WILL BE SOME
FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THE CONTINUED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS...LIKELY POP IS RETAINED THERE.
GUIDANCE ALSO IN AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER PW VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST...LEADING TO ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
SVR STORMS SHUD BE ISOLATED AS WELL WITH WEAK SHEAR. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HAVE DROPPED POP ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT KEPT IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE. STILL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE MTNS...SO POP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES MONDAY AND MONDAY NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS TUE KEEPING THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OFF SHORE WED...RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THU AND
FRI. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AS
THE TROF MOVES EAST TUE. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WED...
BUT A LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CWFA. THE FRONT DISSIPATES THU BUT
LEAVES A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH MOVES IN ON THU AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAP THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE MTNS THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRI WHEN THEY DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER.  AS UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SKIES WILL FILL IN
FROM THE WEST.  THUS...10Z FM GROUP CARRIES LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
UNDER LOW VFR CU AT BKN045.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS
THIS MORNING AT KHKY AND KAVL.  EARLIER MVFR LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS
RECEDED SOMEWHAT GIVING WAY TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS COOLING RESUMES.
ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY MID MORNING WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.  LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.  AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT KAND AND KAVL.  DUE TO
LOW PROBABILITIES AND EFFECTS OF CAPPING CONTINUING TO PLAY A
ROLE...OPTED FOR VCTS/VCSH MENTION INSTEAD OF PREVAILING WX.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 301335
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
935 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL HANGING IN THERE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...FOOTHILLS AND EVEN THE
PIEDMONT. EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 1030 AM ALL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST CAMPOP STILL
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I BLENDED IN THE
CAMPOP TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT AND RAISED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING OVER THE SW
MOUNTAINS AND NE GA. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS.

AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...EARLIER 2KFT STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER
WESTERN NC HAS RECEDED TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR JUST ENOUGH COOLING
TO YIELD PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WHILE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
PERSISTING FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  OTHERWISE....TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...RATHER NICE DAY IN STORE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE MEAN FLOW PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE TROF BENEATH AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME.  CLOSER TO HOME...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FROM OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR EXPANDING
STRATUS CLOUD DECK.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SOME AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  THAT
SAID...ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT COOLING SOMEWHAT
THEREBY DELAYING/PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEYOND DAYBREAK AS HEATING WORKS TO ERODE
LOW STRATUS/FOG PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.  LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 5-10MPH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CU AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA CONVEYOR BELT AND SURFACE TROFFING WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROMOTE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING ALOFT.  SPEAKING
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN...POPS WILL REMAIN NON MENTIONABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS
BY LATE EVENING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE MOISTURE AXIS
APPROACHING AND ALSO PROXIMITY OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE LEADING TO WEAKER
INHIBITION FURTHER WEST.  THAT SAID...PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY MINIMAL
CAPE AND WOULD LIKELY NOT YIELD ROBUST UPDRAFTS LEADING TO SUSTAINED
CONVECTION.  THUS...ONLY EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING A PRIMARY THREAT WHICH WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  POPS WILL REMAIN AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS.  ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS BETTER SKY COVER LIMITS HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND NUDGE THE SERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AS THE ANTICYCLONE DROPS TO THE GA COAST AND RETROGRADES INTO GA MON
NITE. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVES
THRU. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUNDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. CAP
DOES ERODE DURING THE DAY...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...POP HAS BEEN LOWERED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT KEPT IN THE SCT RANGE AS THERE WILL BE SOME
FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THE CONTINUED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS...LIKELY POP IS RETAINED THERE.
GUIDANCE ALSO IN AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER PW VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST...LEADING TO ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
SVR STORMS SHUD BE ISOLATED AS WELL WITH WEAK SHEAR. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HAVE DROPPED POP ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT KEPT IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE. STILL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE MTNS...SO POP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES MONDAY AND MONDAY NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS TUE KEEPING THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OFF SHORE WED...RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THU AND
FRI. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AS
THE TROF MOVES EAST TUE. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WED...
BUT A LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CWFA. THE FRONT DISSIPATES THU BUT
LEAVES A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH MOVES IN ON THU AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAP THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE MTNS THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRI WHEN THEY DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER.  AS UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SKIES WILL FILL IN
FROM THE WEST.  THUS...10Z FM GROUP CARRIES LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
UNDER LOW VFR CU AT BKN045.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS
THIS MORNING AT KHKY AND KAVL.  EARLIER MVFR LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS
RECEDED SOMEWHAT GIVING WAY TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS COOLING RESUMES.
ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY MID MORNING WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.  LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.  AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT KAND AND KAVL.  DUE TO
LOW PROBABILITIES AND EFFECTS OF CAPPING CONTINUING TO PLAY A
ROLE...OPTED FOR VCTS/VCSH MENTION INSTEAD OF PREVAILING WX.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 301335
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
935 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL HANGING IN THERE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...FOOTHILLS AND EVEN THE
PIEDMONT. EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 1030 AM ALL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST CAMPOP STILL
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. I BLENDED IN THE
CAMPOP TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT AND RAISED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING OVER THE SW
MOUNTAINS AND NE GA. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FIELDS.

AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...EARLIER 2KFT STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER
WESTERN NC HAS RECEDED TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR JUST ENOUGH COOLING
TO YIELD PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WHILE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
PERSISTING FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  OTHERWISE....TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...RATHER NICE DAY IN STORE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE MEAN FLOW PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE TROF BENEATH AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME.  CLOSER TO HOME...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FROM OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR EXPANDING
STRATUS CLOUD DECK.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SOME AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  THAT
SAID...ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT COOLING SOMEWHAT
THEREBY DELAYING/PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEYOND DAYBREAK AS HEATING WORKS TO ERODE
LOW STRATUS/FOG PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.  LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 5-10MPH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CU AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA CONVEYOR BELT AND SURFACE TROFFING WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROMOTE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING ALOFT.  SPEAKING
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN...POPS WILL REMAIN NON MENTIONABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS
BY LATE EVENING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE MOISTURE AXIS
APPROACHING AND ALSO PROXIMITY OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE LEADING TO WEAKER
INHIBITION FURTHER WEST.  THAT SAID...PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY MINIMAL
CAPE AND WOULD LIKELY NOT YIELD ROBUST UPDRAFTS LEADING TO SUSTAINED
CONVECTION.  THUS...ONLY EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING A PRIMARY THREAT WHICH WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  POPS WILL REMAIN AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS.  ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS BETTER SKY COVER LIMITS HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND NUDGE THE SERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AS THE ANTICYCLONE DROPS TO THE GA COAST AND RETROGRADES INTO GA MON
NITE. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVES
THRU. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUNDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. CAP
DOES ERODE DURING THE DAY...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...POP HAS BEEN LOWERED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT KEPT IN THE SCT RANGE AS THERE WILL BE SOME
FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THE CONTINUED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS...LIKELY POP IS RETAINED THERE.
GUIDANCE ALSO IN AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER PW VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST...LEADING TO ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
SVR STORMS SHUD BE ISOLATED AS WELL WITH WEAK SHEAR. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HAVE DROPPED POP ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT KEPT IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE. STILL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE MTNS...SO POP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES MONDAY AND MONDAY NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS TUE KEEPING THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OFF SHORE WED...RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THU AND
FRI. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AS
THE TROF MOVES EAST TUE. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WED...
BUT A LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CWFA. THE FRONT DISSIPATES THU BUT
LEAVES A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH MOVES IN ON THU AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAP THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE MTNS THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRI WHEN THEY DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER.  AS UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SKIES WILL FILL IN
FROM THE WEST.  THUS...10Z FM GROUP CARRIES LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
UNDER LOW VFR CU AT BKN045.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS
THIS MORNING AT KHKY AND KAVL.  EARLIER MVFR LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS
RECEDED SOMEWHAT GIVING WAY TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS COOLING RESUMES.
ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY MID MORNING WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.  LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.  AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT KAND AND KAVL.  DUE TO
LOW PROBABILITIES AND EFFECTS OF CAPPING CONTINUING TO PLAY A
ROLE...OPTED FOR VCTS/VCSH MENTION INSTEAD OF PREVAILING WX.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 301037
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...EARLIER 2KFT STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER
WESTERN NC HAS RECEDED TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR JUST ENOUGH COOLING
TO YIELD PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WHILE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
PERSISTING FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  OTHERWISE....TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...RATHER NICE DAY IN STORE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE MEAN FLOW PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE TROF BENEATH AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME.  CLOSER TO HOME...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FROM OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR EXPANDING
STRATUS CLOUD DECK.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SOME AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  THAT
SAID...ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT COOLING SOMEWHAT
THEREBY DELAYING/PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEYOND DAYBREAK AS HEATING WORKS TO ERODE
LOW STRATUS/FOG PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.  LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 5-10MPH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CU AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA CONVEYOR BELT AND SURFACE TROFFING WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROMOTE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING ALOFT.  SPEAKING
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN...POPS WILL REMAIN NON MENTIONABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS
BY LATE EVENING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE MOISTURE AXIS
APPROACHING AND ALSO PROXIMITY OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE LEADING TO WEAKER
INHIBITION FURTHER WEST.  THAT SAID...PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY MINIMAL
CAPE AND WOULD LIKELY NOT YIELD ROBUST UPDRAFTS LEADING TO SUSTAINED
CONVECTION.  THUS...ONLY EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING A PRIMARY THREAT WHICH WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  POPS WILL REMAIN AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS.  ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS BETTER SKY COVER LIMITS HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND NUDGE THE SERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AS THE ANTICYCLONE DROPS TO THE GA COAST AND RETROGRADES INTO GA MON
NITE. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVES
THRU. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUNDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. CAP
DOES ERODE DURING THE DAY...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...POP HAS BEEN LOWERED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT KEPT IN THE SCT RANGE AS THERE WILL BE SOME
FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THE CONTINUED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS...LIKELY POP IS RETAINED THERE.
GUIDANCE ALSO IN AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER PW VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST...LEADING TO ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
SVR STORMS SHUD BE ISOLATED AS WELL WITH WEAK SHEAR. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HAVE DROPPED POP ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT KEPT IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE. STILL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE MTNS...SO POP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES MONDAY AND MONDAY NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS TUE KEEPING THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OFF SHORE WED...RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THU AND
FRI. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AS
THE TROF MOVES EAST TUE. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WED...
BUT A LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CWFA. THE FRONT DISSIPATES THU BUT
LEAVES A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH MOVES IN ON THU AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAP THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE MTNS THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRI WHEN THEY DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER.  AS UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SKIES WILL FILL IN
FROM THE WEST.  THUS...10Z FM GROUP CARRIES LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
UNDER LOW VFR CU AT BKN045.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS
THIS MORNING AT KHKY AND KAVL.  EARLIER MVFR LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS
RECEDED SOMEWHAT GIVING WAY TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS COOLING RESUMES.
ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY MID MORNING WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.  LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.  AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT KAND AND KAVL.  DUE TO
LOW PROBABILITIES AND EFFECTS OF CAPPING CONTINUING TO PLAY A
ROLE...OPTED FOR VCTS/VCSH MENTION INSTEAD OF PREVAILING WX.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KAVL       MED   60%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 301037
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...EARLIER 2KFT STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER
WESTERN NC HAS RECEDED TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR JUST ENOUGH COOLING
TO YIELD PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WHILE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
PERSISTING FOR AN HOUR OR SO.  OTHERWISE....TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...RATHER NICE DAY IN STORE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE MEAN FLOW PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE TROF BENEATH AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME.  CLOSER TO HOME...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FROM OLD
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR EXPANDING
STRATUS CLOUD DECK.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SOME AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  THAT
SAID...ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT COOLING SOMEWHAT
THEREBY DELAYING/PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEYOND DAYBREAK AS HEATING WORKS TO ERODE
LOW STRATUS/FOG PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.  LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 5-10MPH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CU AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA CONVEYOR BELT AND SURFACE TROFFING WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROMOTE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING ALOFT.  SPEAKING
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN...POPS WILL REMAIN NON MENTIONABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS
BY LATE EVENING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE MOISTURE AXIS
APPROACHING AND ALSO PROXIMITY OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE LEADING TO WEAKER
INHIBITION FURTHER WEST.  THAT SAID...PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY MINIMAL
CAPE AND WOULD LIKELY NOT YIELD ROBUST UPDRAFTS LEADING TO SUSTAINED
CONVECTION.  THUS...ONLY EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING A PRIMARY THREAT WHICH WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  POPS WILL REMAIN AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS.  ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS BETTER SKY COVER LIMITS HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND NUDGE THE SERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AS THE ANTICYCLONE DROPS TO THE GA COAST AND RETROGRADES INTO GA MON
NITE. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVES
THRU. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUNDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. CAP
DOES ERODE DURING THE DAY...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...POP HAS BEEN LOWERED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT KEPT IN THE SCT RANGE AS THERE WILL BE SOME
FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THE CONTINUED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS...LIKELY POP IS RETAINED THERE.
GUIDANCE ALSO IN AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER PW VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST...LEADING TO ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
SVR STORMS SHUD BE ISOLATED AS WELL WITH WEAK SHEAR. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HAVE DROPPED POP ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT KEPT IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE. STILL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE MTNS...SO POP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES MONDAY AND MONDAY NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS TUE KEEPING THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OFF SHORE WED...RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THU AND
FRI. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AS
THE TROF MOVES EAST TUE. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WED...
BUT A LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CWFA. THE FRONT DISSIPATES THU BUT
LEAVES A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH MOVES IN ON THU AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAP THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE MTNS THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRI WHEN THEY DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT WINDS
INITIALLY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER.  AS UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SKIES WILL FILL IN
FROM THE WEST.  THUS...10Z FM GROUP CARRIES LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
UNDER LOW VFR CU AT BKN045.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS
THIS MORNING AT KHKY AND KAVL.  EARLIER MVFR LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS
RECEDED SOMEWHAT GIVING WAY TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS COOLING RESUMES.
ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY MID MORNING WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.  LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.  AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT KAND AND KAVL.  DUE TO
LOW PROBABILITIES AND EFFECTS OF CAPPING CONTINUING TO PLAY A
ROLE...OPTED FOR VCTS/VCSH MENTION INSTEAD OF PREVAILING WX.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KAVL       MED   60%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 300742
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...RATHER NICE DAY IN STORE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
PREVAILS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE MEAN FLOW PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE
TROF BENEATH AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME.
CLOSER TO HOME...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FROM OLD STATIONARY
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR EXPANDING STRATUS CLOUD
DECK.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  THAT
SAID...ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS DECK WILL INHIBIT COOLING SOMEWHAT
THEREBY DELAYING/PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEYOND DAYBREAK AS HEATING WORKS TO ERODE
LOW STRATUS/FOG PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.  LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 5-10MPH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CU AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA CONVEYOR BELT AND SURFACE TROFFING WILL ALSO
LIKELY PROMOTE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING ALOFT.  SPEAKING
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN...POPS WILL REMAIN NON MENTIONABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS
BY LATE EVENING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE MOISTURE AXIS
APPROACHING AND ALSO PROXIMITY OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE LEADING TO WEAKER
INHIBITION FURTHER WEST.  THAT SAID...PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY MINIMAL
CAPE AND WOULD LIKELY NOT YIELD ROBUST UPDRAFTS LEADING TO SUSTAINED
CONVECTION.  THUS...ONLY EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING A PRIMARY THREAT WHICH WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  POPS WILL REMAIN AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS.  ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS BETTER SKY COVER LIMITS HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND NUDGE THE SERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AS THE ANTICYCLONE DROPS TO THE GA COAST AND RETROGRADES INTO GA MON
NITE. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVES
THRU. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUNDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. CAP
DOES ERODE DURING THE DAY...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...POP HAS BEEN LOWERED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...BUT KEPT IN THE SCT RANGE AS THERE WILL BE SOME
FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THE CONTINUED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS...LIKELY POP IS RETAINED THERE.
GUIDANCE ALSO IN AGREEMENT SHOWING LOWER PW VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST...LEADING TO ONLY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
SVR STORMS SHUD BE ISOLATED AS WELL WITH WEAK SHEAR. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING. HAVE DROPPED POP ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT KEPT IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE. STILL...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE MTNS...SO POP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES MONDAY AND MONDAY NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS TUE KEEPING THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OFF SHORE WED...RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THU AND
FRI. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA AS
THE TROF MOVES EAST TUE. THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA WED...
BUT A LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CWFA. THE FRONT DISSIPATES THU BUT
LEAVES A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH MOVES IN ON THU AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TAP THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY...WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE MTNS THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRI WHEN THEY DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT INCREASES FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
MVFR LEVELS.  THIS WAS HANDLED WITH A 3HR TEMPO MENTIONING 5SM VSBY
AND NO CIG AT THIS TIME.  BEYOND THAT...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LEADING TO DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT/CALM WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER IF ANY DEVELOPS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AT
KHKY AND KAND WHILE IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KAVL.  LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATE MVFR
STRATUS DECK IS ALREADY SPREADING THROUGH WESTERN NC AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE EXPANSION.  ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY
MID/LATE MORNING WITH ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING
THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.  THUS...ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE
LIGHT/CALM WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTH
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS FOR SKY COVER...LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY...AS THIS MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE AT KAND AND
KAVL.  HOWEVER...AS MODELS REMAIN VARIED ON THIS TIMING AND
INTENSITY OPTED FOR VCSH MENTION AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   66%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   71%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 300557
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUD DECK CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN AND EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING.  GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN ON TRACK REGARDING TRENDS...HOWEVER MAGNITUDE OF THE SKY
COVER WAS UNDER DONE.  THUS...INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALL THE WHILE ALSO HOLDING MIN TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BENEATH AND ADJACENT TO THIS STRATUS DECK.
LATEST MAV/MET/LAMP CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY MORNING.  ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO
ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS AFFECTING TEMPERATURE TRENDS...OPTED TO KEEP
FORECAST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

EVENING UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MIN TEMP GRID AND ADJ
HR/LY TD/S TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. A SFC BNDRY REMAINS ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES AND THE OP MODELS SHOW WEAK ATL MOIST ADV OVERNIGHT AS BL
WINDS VEER S/LY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SFC LAYER MOIST AND ALLOW FOR
FG/BR DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH LOW STCU ACROSS THE ERN ZONES BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE FG WILL LIKELY BECOME MOST DENSE ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS...BUT A WIDESPREAD EVENT IS NOT PROBABLE.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT INCREASES FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
MVFR LEVELS.  THIS WAS HANDLED WITH A 3HR TEMPO MENTIONING 5SM VSBY
AND NO CIG AT THIS TIME.  BEYOND THAT...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LEADING TO DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT/CALM WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER IF ANY DEVELOPS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AT
KHKY AND KAND WHILE IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KAVL.  LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATE MVFR
STRATUS DECK IS ALREADY SPREADING THROUGH WESTERN NC AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE EXPANSION.  ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY
MID/LATE MORNING WITH ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING
THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.  THUS...ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE
LIGHT/CALM WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTH
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS FOR SKY COVER...LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY...AS THIS MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE AT KAND AND
KAVL.  HOWEVER...AS MODELS REMAIN VARIED ON THIS TIMING AND
INTENSITY OPTED FOR VCSH MENTION AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   66%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   62%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 300557
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUD DECK CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN AND EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING.  GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN ON TRACK REGARDING TRENDS...HOWEVER MAGNITUDE OF THE SKY
COVER WAS UNDER DONE.  THUS...INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALL THE WHILE ALSO HOLDING MIN TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BENEATH AND ADJACENT TO THIS STRATUS DECK.
LATEST MAV/MET/LAMP CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY MORNING.  ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO
ABOVE MENTIONED STRATUS AFFECTING TEMPERATURE TRENDS...OPTED TO KEEP
FORECAST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

EVENING UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MIN TEMP GRID AND ADJ
HR/LY TD/S TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. A SFC BNDRY REMAINS ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES AND THE OP MODELS SHOW WEAK ATL MOIST ADV OVERNIGHT AS BL
WINDS VEER S/LY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SFC LAYER MOIST AND ALLOW FOR
FG/BR DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH LOW STCU ACROSS THE ERN ZONES BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE FG WILL LIKELY BECOME MOST DENSE ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS...BUT A WIDESPREAD EVENT IS NOT PROBABLE.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT INCREASES FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
MVFR LEVELS.  THIS WAS HANDLED WITH A 3HR TEMPO MENTIONING 5SM VSBY
AND NO CIG AT THIS TIME.  BEYOND THAT...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LEADING TO DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  LIGHT/CALM WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON FEW LOW VFR CU AND SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BEING THE
DOMINATE SKY COVER IF ANY DEVELOPS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR LEVEL FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AT
KHKY AND KAND WHILE IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KAVL.  LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATE MVFR
STRATUS DECK IS ALREADY SPREADING THROUGH WESTERN NC AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE EXPANSION.  ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY
MID/LATE MORNING WITH ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATING
THE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.  THUS...ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE
LIGHT/CALM WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 5-8KTS RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTH
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS FOR SKY COVER...LOW VFR CU WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SKIES BY LATE MORNING BENEATH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF SKY COVER TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY...AS THIS MOISTURE AXIS INTRUDES...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE AT KAND AND
KAVL.  HOWEVER...AS MODELS REMAIN VARIED ON THIS TIMING AND
INTENSITY OPTED FOR VCSH MENTION AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   66%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   62%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 300151
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
951 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MIN TEMP GRID AND ADJ
HR/LY TD/S TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. A SFC BNDRY REMAINS ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES AND THE OP MODELS SHOW WEAK ATL MOIST ADV OVERNIGHT AS BL
WINDS VEER S/LY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SFC LAYER MOIST AND ALLOW FOR
FG/BR DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH LOW STCU ACROSS THE ERN ZONES BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE FG WILL LIKELY BECOME MOST DENSE ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS...BUT A WIDESPREAD EVENT IS NOT PROBABLE.

730 PM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST SFC BNDRY
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES PROVIDING ENUF LIFT AND TD POOLING FOR ISOL
-SHRA TO DEVELOP. THESE CELLS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY
NOT BECOME DEEP ENUF FOR A LIGHTNING CONCERN. TEMPS AND TD/S ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJS WERE MADE TO SKY COVER ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT CLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY MVFR
VSBY SETTING UP AFT 10Z THROUGH 13Z. BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST ATL FLOW AS WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT
LOW STCU. THE RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF CIG THREAT THAN
FG/BR...HOWEVER THE STAT GUIDANCE GIVES MORE WEIGHT TO MVFR VSBY AND
NONE TO CIGS. THE CURRENT P/GRAD RIDGE BECOMES MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED
SAT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SSE/LY FLOW THRU THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...THE SC SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY LLVLS AND TDDS ABOVE 2 C...HOWEVER A BNDRY SOUTH MAY
SUPPORT MFVR VSBY AFT 10Z AT KAND. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR LEVEL
STCU DEVELOPING AFT 09Z OR SO...BUT THE OVERALL AVAIL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE TOO LOW FOR CIGS. AT KAVL...VSBYS SHOULD START DROPPING
AFT 05Z AND BECOME IFR BTW 09Z/12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. VISIBILITIES AT KHKY WILL ALSO DROP
OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH A RELATIVELY
DRYER SFC LAYER THAN THE MTN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  97%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 292342
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
742 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST SFC BNDRY
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES PROVIDING ENUF LIFT AND TD POOLING FOR ISOL
-SHRA TO DEVELOP. THESE CELLS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY
NOT BECOME DEEP ENUF FOR A LIGHTNING CONCERN. TEMPS AND TD/S ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJS WERE MADE TO SKY COVER ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT CLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY MVFR
VSBY SETTING UP AFT 10Z THROUGH 13Z. BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST ATL FLOW AS WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT
LOW STCU. THE RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF CIG THREAT THAN
FG/BR...HOWEVER THE STAT GUIDANCE GIVES MORE WEIGHT TO MVFR VSBY AND
NONE TO CIGS. THE CURRENT P/GRAD RIDGE BECOMES MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED
SAT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SSE/LY FLOW THRU THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...THE SC SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY LLVLS AND TDDS ABOVE 2 C...HOWEVER A BNDRY SOUTH MAY
SUPPORT MFVR VSBY AFT 10Z AT KAND. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR LEVEL
STCU DEVELOPING AFT 09Z OR SO...BUT THE OVERALL AVAIL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE TOO LOW FOR CIGS. AT KAVL...VSBYS SHOULD START DROPPING
AFT 05Z AND BECOME IFR BTW 09Z/12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. VISIBILITIES AT KHKY WILL ALSO DROP
OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH A RELATIVELY
DRYER SFC LAYER THAN THE MTN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 292342
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
742 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST SFC BNDRY
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES PROVIDING ENUF LIFT AND TD POOLING FOR ISOL
-SHRA TO DEVELOP. THESE CELLS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY
NOT BECOME DEEP ENUF FOR A LIGHTNING CONCERN. TEMPS AND TD/S ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJS WERE MADE TO SKY COVER ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT CLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY MVFR
VSBY SETTING UP AFT 10Z THROUGH 13Z. BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST ATL FLOW AS WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT
LOW STCU. THE RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF CIG THREAT THAN
FG/BR...HOWEVER THE STAT GUIDANCE GIVES MORE WEIGHT TO MVFR VSBY AND
NONE TO CIGS. THE CURRENT P/GRAD RIDGE BECOMES MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED
SAT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SSE/LY FLOW THRU THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...THE SC SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY LLVLS AND TDDS ABOVE 2 C...HOWEVER A BNDRY SOUTH MAY
SUPPORT MFVR VSBY AFT 10Z AT KAND. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR LEVEL
STCU DEVELOPING AFT 09Z OR SO...BUT THE OVERALL AVAIL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE TOO LOW FOR CIGS. AT KAVL...VSBYS SHOULD START DROPPING
AFT 05Z AND BECOME IFR BTW 09Z/12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. VISIBILITIES AT KHKY WILL ALSO DROP
OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH A RELATIVELY
DRYER SFC LAYER THAN THE MTN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 292339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST SFC BNDRY
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES PROVIDING ENUF LIFT AND TD POOLING FOR ISOL
-SHRA TO DEVELOP. THESE CELLS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY
NOT BECOME DEEP ENUF FOR A LIGHTNING CONCERN. TEMPS AND TD/S ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJS WERE MADE TO SKY COVER ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT CLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY MVFR
VSBY SETTING UP AFT 10Z THROUGH 13Z. BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST ATL FLOW AS WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT
LOW STCU. THE RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF A FG/BR THREAT THAN
CIGS AS DOES THE STAT GUIDANCE...SO WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE
MVFR VSBY. THE CURRENT P/GRAD RIDGE BECOMES MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED
SAT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SSE/LY FLOW THRU THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...THE SC SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY LLVLS AND TDDS ABOVE 2 C...HOWEVER A BNDRY SOUTH MAY
SUPPORT MFVR VSBY AFT 10Z AT KAND. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR LEVEL
STCU DEVELOPING AFT 09Z OR SO...BUT THE OVERALL AVAIL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE TOO LOW FOR CIGS. AT KAVL...VSBYS SHOULD START DROPPING
AFT 05Z AND BECOME IFR BTW 09Z/12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. VISIBILITIES AT KHKY WILL ALSO DROP
OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH A RELATIVELY
DRYER SFC LAYER THAN THE MTN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 292339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST SFC BNDRY
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES PROVIDING ENUF LIFT AND TD POOLING FOR ISOL
-SHRA TO DEVELOP. THESE CELLS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY
NOT BECOME DEEP ENUF FOR A LIGHTNING CONCERN. TEMPS AND TD/S ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJS WERE MADE TO SKY COVER ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES.

430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT CLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY MVFR
VSBY SETTING UP AFT 10Z THROUGH 13Z. BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST ATL FLOW AS WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT
LOW STCU. THE RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE OF A FG/BR THREAT THAN
CIGS AS DOES THE STAT GUIDANCE...SO WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE
MVFR VSBY. THE CURRENT P/GRAD RIDGE BECOMES MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED
SAT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SSE/LY FLOW THRU THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...THE SC SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY LLVLS AND TDDS ABOVE 2 C...HOWEVER A BNDRY SOUTH MAY
SUPPORT MFVR VSBY AFT 10Z AT KAND. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR LEVEL
STCU DEVELOPING AFT 09Z OR SO...BUT THE OVERALL AVAIL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE TOO LOW FOR CIGS. AT KAVL...VSBYS SHOULD START DROPPING
AFT 05Z AND BECOME IFR BTW 09Z/12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. VISIBILITIES AT KHKY WILL ALSO DROP
OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH A RELATIVELY
DRYER SFC LAYER THAN THE MTN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 292043
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 292043
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 PM EDT UPDATE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NEEDS ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING CU FIELD IN CHECK WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT SEEN ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 291829
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291829
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...WHILE GENERALLY
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN THIS REGIME...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LEE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
SBCAPE VALUES (GENERALLY 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS CONVECTION...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE ISOLATED PULSE VARIETY.

WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TREND TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION SHOULD SPELL A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS/NEAR NORMAL MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 291806
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291806
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...LOW STRATUS ARE FINALLY DISSOLVING OVER OUR
PORTION OF THE NW NC PIEDMONT THOUGH OVC SKIES REMAIN JUST NE OF
CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A
WEDGELIKE SFC RIDGE WHICH CAUSED THESE CLOUDS TO FORM EARLY THIS
MRNG REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
IN AN ARC FROM ASHEVILLE TO SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE...A RESULT OF
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THOUGH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH EAST OF THE MTNS TO EXPECT DEEP
CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLD TSRA MENTION OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT THAT/S IT.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA
HIGH POSITION AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY
REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT...AT LEAST
ENOUGH SO THAT ANY UPGLIDE WILL DIMINISH...SO LOW CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH DOES PROMPT THOUGHTS OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG CREEPING UP FROM THE COAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS FAR INLAND. A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR
FOG TO FORM WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTN...GIVEN GOOD GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TEMPS COOLING BELOW THE
EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPS AS WELL AS WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER THREAT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

THAT UPPER TROUGH DOES BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES NWD INTO THE
TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTN BUT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
FORCING OVER OUR AREA. LAPSE RATES AND MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE BEST
OVER THE SRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE UPPER HEIGHTS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS MAY ALSO ENHANCE
THE COVERAGE...SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. FURTHER
EAST SUBSIDENCE CAPPING WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. MAINLY DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN FOR SKY COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z TUESDAY
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEPARTS EAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AT 00Z TUES WILL RETROGRADE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEING CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES IN MID WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO LATE WEEK CREATING A GREATER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN THURS AND FRI WITH THE JET STREAM FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE
DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND IN THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...OF MOVING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
EVEN FARTHER WEST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND OKLAHOMA NEXT WEEKEND...OUR PATTERN MAY SHIFT
FROM BEING IN A RIDGE TO BEING IN NW FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING MCS
SYSTEMS FROM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE CAROLINAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN MID WEEK BUT IT
IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE PM HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCES OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH...A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR NOT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. MAXES ABOVE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MID WEEK AND
3 TO 5 ABOVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY/KAVL/KGSP...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER NEARBY EARLY THIS
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
NC/SC BORDER WILL POOL MOISTURE THIS AFTN AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM
MIXING OUT APPRECIABLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CALM AND FEW-SCT SKY
COVER TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY
APPROACH CROSSOVER VALUES. KAVL HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE
FOR DENSE FOG SO HAVE PREVAILED LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK THERE. I THINK
THE OTHER SITES HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING OUT SOME LATER
TODAY...PLUS THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUID. THUS ONLY IFR TEMPOS
THERE. EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH IS ALREADY SELY...THE OTHER SITES WILL
FLIRT WITH ESE WINDS LATER THIS AFTN BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN COME UP FROM THE SE SATURDAY.

AT KGMU/KAND...EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...THOUGH KGMU
WILL BE NEARER THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE AND HENCE
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY E TO SE THIS AFTN...GOING CALM BY EVENING...AND
PREVAILING SELY AGAIN SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 291453
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1053 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED INTO THE NW NC PIEDMONT
WITHIN WEDGELIKE AIR MASS NORTH OF PESKY BACK DOOR FRONT. THE DECK/S
PROGRESS HAS SLOWED EVIDENTLY DUE TO MIXING ALONG THE EDGES AS
TEMPERATURES RISE. NONETHELESS IT STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF LASTING
INTO MIDDAY DUE TO UPGLIDE ATOP THE COOLER LAYER. BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE FCST AT THIS UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT THE MCLDY SKIES IN THIS AREA.
AS FOR POPS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS DEEP CONVECTION ONLY
OVER THE RIDGETOPS TODAY...DESPITE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEN
ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER. THIS EVIDENCED BY RAP SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
THE TOWERS SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE DECK ON SATELLITE OVER THE TRIAD
REGION. MAINTAINED SIMILAR POP TRENDS TO THOSE FROM EARLIER PACKAGE
BUT FOCUSED THEM MORE OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT THIS MRNG FOR THE
LATTER REASON. NEWEST GUID ALSO ALLOWS SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO
FIRE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WEDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
BY THEN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A CONSENSUS BEFORE ADDING ANY
POPS FOR IT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER IN THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED
BOUNDARY...BUT MIXING IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT IT FROM FORMING A CIG
AT THE FIELD EXCEPT MAYBE BRIEFLY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS
THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. SOME LOW
END GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THIS MORNING. CARRIED LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT KAVL
SATURDAY MORNING. INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN INTRODUCTION OF
MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE CONDENSES ALONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OLD STATIONARY
FRONT. VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH SKIES SCT OUT AND
WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS NORTHERLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%     MED   65%
KHKY       MED   61%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG/WIMBERLEY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 291453
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1053 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED INTO THE NW NC PIEDMONT
WITHIN WEDGELIKE AIR MASS NORTH OF PESKY BACK DOOR FRONT. THE DECK/S
PROGRESS HAS SLOWED EVIDENTLY DUE TO MIXING ALONG THE EDGES AS
TEMPERATURES RISE. NONETHELESS IT STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF LASTING
INTO MIDDAY DUE TO UPGLIDE ATOP THE COOLER LAYER. BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE FCST AT THIS UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT THE MCLDY SKIES IN THIS AREA.
AS FOR POPS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS DEEP CONVECTION ONLY
OVER THE RIDGETOPS TODAY...DESPITE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEN
ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER. THIS EVIDENCED BY RAP SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
THE TOWERS SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE DECK ON SATELLITE OVER THE TRIAD
REGION. MAINTAINED SIMILAR POP TRENDS TO THOSE FROM EARLIER PACKAGE
BUT FOCUSED THEM MORE OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT THIS MRNG FOR THE
LATTER REASON. NEWEST GUID ALSO ALLOWS SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO
FIRE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WEDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
BY THEN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A CONSENSUS BEFORE ADDING ANY
POPS FOR IT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER IN THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ABOVE MENTIONED
BOUNDARY...BUT MIXING IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT IT FROM FORMING A CIG
AT THE FIELD EXCEPT MAYBE BRIEFLY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS
THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. SOME LOW
END GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THIS MORNING. CARRIED LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT KAVL
SATURDAY MORNING. INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN INTRODUCTION OF
MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE CONDENSES ALONG
CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND OLD STATIONARY
FRONT. VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH SKIES SCT OUT AND
WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS NORTHERLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%     MED   65%
KHKY       MED   61%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG/WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291432
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1032 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED INTO THE NW NC PIEDMONT
WITHIN WEDGELIKE AIR MASS NORTH OF PESKY BACK DOOR FRONT. THE DECK/S
PROGRESS HAS SLOWED EVIDENTLY DUE TO MIXING ALONG THE EDGES AS
TEMPERATURES RISE. NONETHELESS IT STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF LASTING
INTO MIDDAY DUE TO UPGLIDE ATOP THE COOLER LAYER. BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE FCST AT THIS UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT THE MCLDY SKIES IN THIS AREA.
AS FOR POPS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS DEEP CONVECTION ONLY
OVER THE RIDGETOPS TODAY...DESPITE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEN
ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER. THIS EVIDENCED BY RAP SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
THE TOWERS SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE DECK ON SATELLITE OVER THE TRIAD
REGION. MAINTAINED SIMILAR POP TRENDS TO THOSE FROM EARLIER PACKAGE
BUT FOCUSED THEM MORE OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT THIS MRNG FOR THE
LATTER REASON. NEWEST GUID ALSO ALLOWS SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO
FIRE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WEDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
BY THEN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A CONSENSUS BEFORE ADDING ANY
POPS FOR IT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING SKY COVER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LATER
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH
ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.  THUS...LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND LOWER OVER THE AIRFIELD AROUND
THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH NO CIG RESTRICIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
TAF ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SCT025.  THIS LOW SCT STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BY APPROX 18Z.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING
BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING.  CARRIED LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW
VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT
KAVL SATURDAY MORNING.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN
INTRODUCTION OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE
CONDENSES ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
OLD STATIONARY FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH
SKIES SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     MED   74%
KHKY       MED   66%     HIGH  92%     MED   66%     MED   75%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291432
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1032 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...LINGERING OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED INTO THE NW NC PIEDMONT
WITHIN WEDGELIKE AIR MASS NORTH OF PESKY BACK DOOR FRONT. THE DECK/S
PROGRESS HAS SLOWED EVIDENTLY DUE TO MIXING ALONG THE EDGES AS
TEMPERATURES RISE. NONETHELESS IT STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF LASTING
INTO MIDDAY DUE TO UPGLIDE ATOP THE COOLER LAYER. BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE FCST AT THIS UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT THE MCLDY SKIES IN THIS AREA.
AS FOR POPS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS DEEP CONVECTION ONLY
OVER THE RIDGETOPS TODAY...DESPITE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEN
ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER. THIS EVIDENCED BY RAP SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
THE TOWERS SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE DECK ON SATELLITE OVER THE TRIAD
REGION. MAINTAINED SIMILAR POP TRENDS TO THOSE FROM EARLIER PACKAGE
BUT FOCUSED THEM MORE OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT THIS MRNG FOR THE
LATTER REASON. NEWEST GUID ALSO ALLOWS SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO
FIRE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE WEDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
BY THEN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A CONSENSUS BEFORE ADDING ANY
POPS FOR IT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE PRESSURE FALLS AT
THE SURFACE LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  ALSO AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY
BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA...WEST INTO TENNESSEE.  A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES SLIDE EAST AND WEDGE DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPS.

LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ANALYSIS
INDICATE AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TIED TO A ZONE OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE.  GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION FAIRLY WELL
AND ALSO INDICATES FURTHER EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...CALMING WINDS AND VERY MOIST DECOUPLING PBL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 2 MILES...MAINLY IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  EXPECTING ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BOUNDARY AND OLD BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS SUCH AS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY NICE FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AMONGST WEAK/INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AS FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTH...SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES...AND WEAKER
CAPPING WILL WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WERE BETTER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS PROVIDING NEEDED FORCING.

ALL SAID...THE HWO WILL MENTION LOW END THREAT FOR DIURNAL HEATING
AIDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  CONVECTION
WILL TAPER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING SUBSIDES WITH ALL
POPS BEING REMOVED BY MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO SKY
COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS SLIDES
TO COAST SAT...THEN REMAINS THERE THRU THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS OR IS SUPPRESSED AS
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST OVER AND INTO THE RIDGE. AT
THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SUN...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE...INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY...LEADING TO SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WRN UPSTATE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN AN UNSTABLE ATMOS AND A
CAPPED ATMOS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA SUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND LEE TROF SHUD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE SHORT WAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE RESULT
WILL BE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SOLID SCT COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...TAPERING
OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SUNDAY AND COULD LEAD TO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
SUN NITE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON TOP OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SFC LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WED...
BUT DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH A RELATIVELY LULL ON TUE OF
LOW END SCT MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING SKY COVER TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LATER
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH
ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.  THUS...LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND LOWER OVER THE AIRFIELD AROUND
THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH NO CIG RESTRICIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
TAF ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SCT025.  THIS LOW SCT STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BY APPROX 18Z.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-7KTS RANGE THROUGH MORNING
BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING.  CARRIED LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER LOW
VFR CU FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FOG RESTRICITONS AT
KAVL SATURDAY MORNING.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH AN
INTRODUCTION OF MVFR LEVEL STRATUS AROUND 14Z AT KHKY AS MOISTURE
CONDENSES ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
OLD STATIONARY FRONT.  VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY MIDDAY WITH
SKIES SCT OUT AND WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT THE SC SITES AND KAVL
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT MIGRATES NORTH WHILE KHKY REMAINS
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA AND TSRA WITH
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     MED   74%
KHKY       MED   66%     HIGH  92%     MED   66%     MED   75%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG








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