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000
FXUS62 KGSP 020222
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1022 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING OVERHEAD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED...STRATOCU IS DIMINISHING AND
WINDS ARE BECOMING CALM. GOING FCST IS ON TRACK WITH UPDATES MAINLY
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 730 PM...SHRA LINGERING ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DIMINISHING STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG. LOW
TEMPS ON TRACK...SO CHANGES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 425 PM...SHRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES OF THE NRN
MTNS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THEN TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS
COVERED. UPDATED MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS THE
MTNS...HAVE YET TO SEE ANY DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ATM IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...AND IT/S APPEARING THAT COVERAGE WILL
BE QUITE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...HAVEN/T GIVEN UP ON
CONVECTION YET...ESP IN LIGHT OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED CU FIELD...THUS
POPS WILL BE RETAINED IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING/S READINGS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT.

CONTINUED GRADUAL AIR MASS RECOVERY/INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND EVEN
MORE WARMTH...WITH PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY FOR WED AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
MODEST AT LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TO KICK THE AREA OF VORTICITY...CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
INDIANA...TO KICK TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. CHANCE POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FEATURED
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FHILLS...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA OF UPPER FORCING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
BE FEATURED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE OVERALL HEIGHT
FALLS AT 500 MB ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID AND UPR FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS AGREE ON SOME Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ATOP THE CWFA...ESP ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT THEN GIVE
WAY TO A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SO THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.
WHILE FRIDAY LOOKS MORE ACTIVE...AS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BETTER INSTBY...WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BNDRY. POPS RAMP UP TO SOLID CHC TO NEAR LIKELY IN THE MTNS AND
LOW-END CHC ACRS THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 90S ON THURSDAY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN ULVL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH ATL ENABLING A NA
OMEGA BLOCK AND A WEAKNESS OR BROAD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SE CONUS. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL ANCHOR A SFC HIGH ACROSS
NEW ENG WITH SFC RIDGING INTO THE SE REGION TO SOME DEGREE. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LLVL RIDGE AND THUS THE
QPF RESPONSE IN ISENT LIFTED ATL MOISTURE FLUX.

SAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
-SHRA...BUT WITH VARYING IDEAS TO THE PATTERN AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER END AND KEEP POPS IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT SHOULD BE LOW-END PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WEAK MLVL
FORCING...THUS WILL LOWER GENERAL THUNDER MENTION TO ISOL COVERAGE.
DECENT CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE LAYERED E/LY FLOW HOWEVER...AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A MODEST QPF RESPONSE MAINLY ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE CAD LIKE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WEAKEN A LITTLE SUN.
WITH LESS ISENT LIFT AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS...WILL FAVOR THE MTNS
WITH CHANCE POPS AND ISOL ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE
LESS THAN SAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS...THUS THUNDER WILL NOT BE MENTIONED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A
COUPLE CATS BELOW NORMAL BOTH SAT/SUN...WITH MINS RIGHT ARND OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN GOOD NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS SIGFNTLY AGAIN ON MON AS THE SE UPPER LOW
BECOMES DOMINANT AND THE NRN RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE SFC RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DECREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLUX AS A BROAD COASTAL TROF FORMS. THERE
WILL STILL BE A ENUF GENERAL LIFT AND INCREASING INSOL FOR AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSTMS. THUS...POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE SEASONAL RANGE. MAX
TEMPS AND TD/S WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND RECOVER SLOWLY AS THE
SFC FLOW IS HELD IN A NE/LY TO E/LY CONFIG DUE TO THE COASTAL
TROF...SO ANY THUNDER MENTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SRN BLUE RIDGE
WITHIN MTN TOP CONVERG. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOMORROW MORNING. THAT SAID...COULD BE ANOTHER
MORNING WHERE VALLEYS ARE SOCKED IN...BUT CONDITIONS NOT AS BAD AT
THE AIRPORT. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RESTRICTION AT KHKY/KAND AS FOG
FLOATS OFF THE NEARBY LAKES. LINGERING STRATOCU WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. CU RETURNS WITH HEATING WED. EXPECT A BETTER
CHC OF CONVECTION WED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS TOWARD
THE AREA. HOWEVER...CHC LOW ENUF FOR PROB30 TO BE LIMITED TO KHKY
AND KAVL. LIGHT WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME SW WED...
EXCEPT NLY AT KAVL AND NW AT KHKY.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     LOW   51%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 020222
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1022 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING OVERHEAD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED...STRATOCU IS DIMINISHING AND
WINDS ARE BECOMING CALM. GOING FCST IS ON TRACK WITH UPDATES MAINLY
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 730 PM...SHRA LINGERING ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DIMINISHING STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG. LOW
TEMPS ON TRACK...SO CHANGES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 425 PM...SHRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES OF THE NRN
MTNS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THEN TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS
COVERED. UPDATED MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS THE
MTNS...HAVE YET TO SEE ANY DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ATM IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...AND IT/S APPEARING THAT COVERAGE WILL
BE QUITE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...HAVEN/T GIVEN UP ON
CONVECTION YET...ESP IN LIGHT OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED CU FIELD...THUS
POPS WILL BE RETAINED IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING/S READINGS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT.

CONTINUED GRADUAL AIR MASS RECOVERY/INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND EVEN
MORE WARMTH...WITH PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY FOR WED AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
MODEST AT LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TO KICK THE AREA OF VORTICITY...CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
INDIANA...TO KICK TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. CHANCE POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FEATURED
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FHILLS...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA OF UPPER FORCING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
BE FEATURED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE OVERALL HEIGHT
FALLS AT 500 MB ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID AND UPR FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS AGREE ON SOME Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ATOP THE CWFA...ESP ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT THEN GIVE
WAY TO A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SO THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.
WHILE FRIDAY LOOKS MORE ACTIVE...AS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BETTER INSTBY...WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BNDRY. POPS RAMP UP TO SOLID CHC TO NEAR LIKELY IN THE MTNS AND
LOW-END CHC ACRS THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 90S ON THURSDAY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN ULVL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH ATL ENABLING A NA
OMEGA BLOCK AND A WEAKNESS OR BROAD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SE CONUS. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL ANCHOR A SFC HIGH ACROSS
NEW ENG WITH SFC RIDGING INTO THE SE REGION TO SOME DEGREE. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LLVL RIDGE AND THUS THE
QPF RESPONSE IN ISENT LIFTED ATL MOISTURE FLUX.

SAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
-SHRA...BUT WITH VARYING IDEAS TO THE PATTERN AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER END AND KEEP POPS IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT SHOULD BE LOW-END PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WEAK MLVL
FORCING...THUS WILL LOWER GENERAL THUNDER MENTION TO ISOL COVERAGE.
DECENT CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE LAYERED E/LY FLOW HOWEVER...AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A MODEST QPF RESPONSE MAINLY ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE CAD LIKE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WEAKEN A LITTLE SUN.
WITH LESS ISENT LIFT AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS...WILL FAVOR THE MTNS
WITH CHANCE POPS AND ISOL ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE
LESS THAN SAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS...THUS THUNDER WILL NOT BE MENTIONED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A
COUPLE CATS BELOW NORMAL BOTH SAT/SUN...WITH MINS RIGHT ARND OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN GOOD NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS SIGFNTLY AGAIN ON MON AS THE SE UPPER LOW
BECOMES DOMINANT AND THE NRN RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE SFC RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DECREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLUX AS A BROAD COASTAL TROF FORMS. THERE
WILL STILL BE A ENUF GENERAL LIFT AND INCREASING INSOL FOR AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSTMS. THUS...POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE SEASONAL RANGE. MAX
TEMPS AND TD/S WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND RECOVER SLOWLY AS THE
SFC FLOW IS HELD IN A NE/LY TO E/LY CONFIG DUE TO THE COASTAL
TROF...SO ANY THUNDER MENTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SRN BLUE RIDGE
WITHIN MTN TOP CONVERG. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOMORROW MORNING. THAT SAID...COULD BE ANOTHER
MORNING WHERE VALLEYS ARE SOCKED IN...BUT CONDITIONS NOT AS BAD AT
THE AIRPORT. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RESTRICTION AT KHKY/KAND AS FOG
FLOATS OFF THE NEARBY LAKES. LINGERING STRATOCU WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. CU RETURNS WITH HEATING WED. EXPECT A BETTER
CHC OF CONVECTION WED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS TOWARD
THE AREA. HOWEVER...CHC LOW ENUF FOR PROB30 TO BE LIMITED TO KHKY
AND KAVL. LIGHT WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME SW WED...
EXCEPT NLY AT KAVL AND NW AT KHKY.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     LOW   51%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 012334
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
734 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING OVERHEAD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...SHRA LINGERING ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DIMINISHING STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG. LOW
TEMPS ON TRACK...SO CHANGES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 425 PM...SHRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES OF THE NRN
MTNS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THEN TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS
COVERED. UPDATED MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS THE
MTNS...HAVE YET TO SEE ANY DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ATM IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...AND IT/S APPEARING THAT COVERAGE WILL
BE QUITE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...HAVEN/T GIVEN UP ON
CONVECTION YET...ESP IN LIGHT OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED CU FIELD...THUS
POPS WILL BE RETAINED IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING/S READINGS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT.

CONTINUED GRADUAL AIR MASS RECOVERY/INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND EVEN
MORE WARMTH...WITH PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY FOR WED AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
MODEST AT LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TO KICK THE AREA OF VORTICITY...CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
INDIANA...TO KICK TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. CHANCE POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FEATURED
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FHILLS...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA OF UPPER FORCING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
BE FEATURED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE OVERALL HEIGHT
FALLS AT 500 MB ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID AND UPR FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS AGREE ON SOME Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ATOP THE CWFA...ESP ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT THEN GIVE
WAY TO A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SO THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.
WHILE FRIDAY LOOKS MORE ACTIVE...AS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BETTER INSTBY...WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BNDRY. POPS RAMP UP TO SOLID CHC TO NEAR LIKELY IN THE MTNS AND
LOW-END CHC ACRS THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 90S ON THURSDAY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN ULVL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH ATL ENABLING A NA
OMEGA BLOCK AND A WEAKNESS OR BROAD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SE CONUS. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL ANCHOR A SFC HIGH ACROSS
NEW ENG WITH SFC RIDGING INTO THE SE REGION TO SOME DEGREE. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LLVL RIDGE AND THUS THE
QPF RESPONSE IN ISENT LIFTED ATL MOISTURE FLUX.

SAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
-SHRA...BUT WITH VARYING IDEAS TO THE PATTERN AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER END AND KEEP POPS IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT SHOULD BE LOW-END PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WEAK MLVL
FORCING...THUS WILL LOWER GENERAL THUNDER MENTION TO ISOL COVERAGE.
DECENT CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE LAYERED E/LY FLOW HOWEVER...AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A MODEST QPF RESPONSE MAINLY ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE CAD LIKE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WEAKEN A LITTLE SUN.
WITH LESS ISENT LIFT AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS...WILL FAVOR THE MTNS
WITH CHANCE POPS AND ISOL ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE
LESS THAN SAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS...THUS THUNDER WILL NOT BE MENTIONED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A
COUPLE CATS BELOW NORMAL BOTH SAT/SUN...WITH MINS RIGHT ARND OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN GOOD NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS SIGFNTLY AGAIN ON MON AS THE SE UPPER LOW
BECOMES DOMINANT AND THE NRN RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE SFC RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DECREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLUX AS A BROAD COASTAL TROF FORMS. THERE
WILL STILL BE A ENUF GENERAL LIFT AND INCREASING INSOL FOR AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSTMS. THUS...POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE SEASONAL RANGE. MAX
TEMPS AND TD/S WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND RECOVER SLOWLY AS THE
SFC FLOW IS HELD IN A NE/LY TO E/LY CONFIG DUE TO THE COASTAL
TROF...SO ANY THUNDER MENTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SRN BLUE RIDGE
WITHIN MTN TOP CONVERG. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOMORROW MORNING. THAT SAID...COULD BE ANOTHER
MORNING WHERE VALLEYS ARE SOCKED IN...BUT CONDITIONS NOT AS BAD AT
THE AIRPORT. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RESTRICTION AT KHKY/KAND AS FOG
FLOATS OFF THE NEARBY LAKES. LINGERING STRATOCU WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. CU RETURNS WITH HEATING WED. EXPECT A BETTER
CHC OF CONVECTION WED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS TOWARD
THE AREA. HOWEVER...CHC LOW ENUF FOR PROB30 TO BE LIMITED TO KHKY
AND KAVL. LIGHT WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME SW WED...
EXCEPT NLY AT KAVL AND NW AT KHKY.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 012334
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
734 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING OVERHEAD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...SHRA LINGERING ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DIMINISHING STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG. LOW
TEMPS ON TRACK...SO CHANGES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 425 PM...SHRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES OF THE NRN
MTNS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THEN TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS
COVERED. UPDATED MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS THE
MTNS...HAVE YET TO SEE ANY DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ATM IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...AND IT/S APPEARING THAT COVERAGE WILL
BE QUITE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...HAVEN/T GIVEN UP ON
CONVECTION YET...ESP IN LIGHT OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED CU FIELD...THUS
POPS WILL BE RETAINED IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING/S READINGS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT.

CONTINUED GRADUAL AIR MASS RECOVERY/INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND EVEN
MORE WARMTH...WITH PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY FOR WED AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
MODEST AT LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TO KICK THE AREA OF VORTICITY...CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
INDIANA...TO KICK TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. CHANCE POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FEATURED
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FHILLS...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA OF UPPER FORCING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
BE FEATURED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE OVERALL HEIGHT
FALLS AT 500 MB ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID AND UPR FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS AGREE ON SOME Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ATOP THE CWFA...ESP ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT THEN GIVE
WAY TO A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SO THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.
WHILE FRIDAY LOOKS MORE ACTIVE...AS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BETTER INSTBY...WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BNDRY. POPS RAMP UP TO SOLID CHC TO NEAR LIKELY IN THE MTNS AND
LOW-END CHC ACRS THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 90S ON THURSDAY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN ULVL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH ATL ENABLING A NA
OMEGA BLOCK AND A WEAKNESS OR BROAD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SE CONUS. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL ANCHOR A SFC HIGH ACROSS
NEW ENG WITH SFC RIDGING INTO THE SE REGION TO SOME DEGREE. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LLVL RIDGE AND THUS THE
QPF RESPONSE IN ISENT LIFTED ATL MOISTURE FLUX.

SAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
-SHRA...BUT WITH VARYING IDEAS TO THE PATTERN AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER END AND KEEP POPS IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT SHOULD BE LOW-END PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WEAK MLVL
FORCING...THUS WILL LOWER GENERAL THUNDER MENTION TO ISOL COVERAGE.
DECENT CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE LAYERED E/LY FLOW HOWEVER...AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A MODEST QPF RESPONSE MAINLY ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE CAD LIKE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WEAKEN A LITTLE SUN.
WITH LESS ISENT LIFT AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS...WILL FAVOR THE MTNS
WITH CHANCE POPS AND ISOL ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE
LESS THAN SAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS...THUS THUNDER WILL NOT BE MENTIONED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A
COUPLE CATS BELOW NORMAL BOTH SAT/SUN...WITH MINS RIGHT ARND OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN GOOD NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS SIGFNTLY AGAIN ON MON AS THE SE UPPER LOW
BECOMES DOMINANT AND THE NRN RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE SFC RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DECREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLUX AS A BROAD COASTAL TROF FORMS. THERE
WILL STILL BE A ENUF GENERAL LIFT AND INCREASING INSOL FOR AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSTMS. THUS...POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE SEASONAL RANGE. MAX
TEMPS AND TD/S WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND RECOVER SLOWLY AS THE
SFC FLOW IS HELD IN A NE/LY TO E/LY CONFIG DUE TO THE COASTAL
TROF...SO ANY THUNDER MENTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SRN BLUE RIDGE
WITHIN MTN TOP CONVERG. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOMORROW MORNING. THAT SAID...COULD BE ANOTHER
MORNING WHERE VALLEYS ARE SOCKED IN...BUT CONDITIONS NOT AS BAD AT
THE AIRPORT. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RESTRICTION AT KHKY/KAND AS FOG
FLOATS OFF THE NEARBY LAKES. LINGERING STRATOCU WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. CU RETURNS WITH HEATING WED. EXPECT A BETTER
CHC OF CONVECTION WED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS TOWARD
THE AREA. HOWEVER...CHC LOW ENUF FOR PROB30 TO BE LIMITED TO KHKY
AND KAVL. LIGHT WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME SW WED...
EXCEPT NLY AT KAVL AND NW AT KHKY.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 012028
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
428 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING OVERHEAD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...SHRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES OF THE NRN
MTNS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THEN TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS
COVERED. UPDATED MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS THE
MTNS...HAVE YET TO SEE ANY DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ATM IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...AND IT/S APPEARING THAT COVERAGE WILL
BE QUITE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...HAVEN/T GIVEN UP ON
CONVECTION YET...ESP IN LIGHT OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED CU FIELD...THUS
POPS WILL BE RETAINED IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING/S READINGS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT.

CONTINUED GRADUAL AIR MASS RECOVERY/INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND EVEN
MORE WARMTH...WITH PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY FOR WED AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
MODEST AT LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TO KICK THE AREA OF VORTICITY...CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
INDIANA...TO KICK TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. CHANCE POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FEATURED
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FHILLS...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA OF UPPER FORCING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
BE FEATURED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE OVERALL HEIGHT
FALLS AT 500 MB ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID AND UPR FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS AGREE ON SOME Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ATOP THE CWFA...ESP ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT THEN GIVE
WAY TO A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SO THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.
WHILE FRIDAY LOOKS MORE ACTIVE...AS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BETTER INSTBY...WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BNDRY. POPS RAMP UP TO SOLID CHC TO NEAR LIKELY IN THE MTNS AND
LOW-END CHC ACRS THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 90S ON THURSDAY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN ULVL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH ATL ENABLING A NA
OMEGA BLOCK AND A WEAKNESS OR BROAD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SE CONUS. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL ANCHOR A SFC HIGH ACROSS
NEW ENG WITH SFC RIDGING INTO THE SE REGION TO SOME DEGREE. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LLVL RIDGE AND THUS THE
QPF RESPONSE IN ISENT LIFTED ATL MOISTURE FLUX.

SAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
-SHRA...BUT WITH VARYING IDEAS TO THE PATTERN AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER END AND KEEP POPS IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT SHOULD BE LOW-END PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WEAK MLVL
FORCING...THUS WILL LOWER GENERAL THUNDER MENTION TO ISOL COVERAGE.
DECENT CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE LAYERED E/LY FLOW HOWEVER...AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A MODEST QPF RESPONSE MAINLY ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE CAD LIKE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WEAKEN A LITTLE SUN.
WITH LESS ISENT LIFT AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS...WILL FAVOR THE MTNS
WITH CHANCE POPS AND ISOL ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE
LESS THAN SAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS...THUS THUNDER WILL NOT BE MENTIONED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A
COUPLE CATS BELOW NORMAL BOTH SAT/SUN...WITH MINS RIGHT ARND OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN GOOD NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS SIGFNTLY AGAIN ON MON AS THE SE UPPER LOW
BECOMES DOMINANT AND THE NRN RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE SFC RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DECREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLUX AS A BROAD COASTAL TROF FORMS. THERE
WILL STILL BE A ENUF GENERAL LIFT AND INCREASING INSOL FOR AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSTMS. THUS...POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE SEASONAL RANGE. MAX
TEMPS AND TD/S WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND RECOVER SLOWLY AS THE
SFC FLOW IS HELD IN A NE/LY TO E/LY CONFIG DUE TO THE COASTAL
TROF...SO ANY THUNDER MENTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SRN BLUE RIDGE
WITHIN MTN TOP CONVERG. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON
CONDITIONS AT KAVL...BUT HAVE INCLUDED IFR VISBY THERE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD
THE SOUTH...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE 040-060 RANGE
IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATING STRATOCU THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EXPECTED AT KCLT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN SSE AND SSW.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 012028
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
428 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING OVERHEAD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...SHRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES OF THE NRN
MTNS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THEN TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS
COVERED. UPDATED MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS THE
MTNS...HAVE YET TO SEE ANY DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ATM IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...AND IT/S APPEARING THAT COVERAGE WILL
BE QUITE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...HAVEN/T GIVEN UP ON
CONVECTION YET...ESP IN LIGHT OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED CU FIELD...THUS
POPS WILL BE RETAINED IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING/S READINGS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT.

CONTINUED GRADUAL AIR MASS RECOVERY/INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND EVEN
MORE WARMTH...WITH PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY FOR WED AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
MODEST AT LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TO KICK THE AREA OF VORTICITY...CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
INDIANA...TO KICK TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. CHANCE POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FEATURED
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FHILLS...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA OF UPPER FORCING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
BE FEATURED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE OVERALL HEIGHT
FALLS AT 500 MB ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID AND UPR FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS AGREE ON SOME Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ATOP THE CWFA...ESP ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT THEN GIVE
WAY TO A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SO THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.
WHILE FRIDAY LOOKS MORE ACTIVE...AS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BETTER INSTBY...WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BNDRY. POPS RAMP UP TO SOLID CHC TO NEAR LIKELY IN THE MTNS AND
LOW-END CHC ACRS THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 90S ON THURSDAY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN ULVL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH ATL ENABLING A NA
OMEGA BLOCK AND A WEAKNESS OR BROAD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SE CONUS. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL ANCHOR A SFC HIGH ACROSS
NEW ENG WITH SFC RIDGING INTO THE SE REGION TO SOME DEGREE. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LLVL RIDGE AND THUS THE
QPF RESPONSE IN ISENT LIFTED ATL MOISTURE FLUX.

SAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
-SHRA...BUT WITH VARYING IDEAS TO THE PATTERN AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER END AND KEEP POPS IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT SHOULD BE LOW-END PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WEAK MLVL
FORCING...THUS WILL LOWER GENERAL THUNDER MENTION TO ISOL COVERAGE.
DECENT CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE LAYERED E/LY FLOW HOWEVER...AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A MODEST QPF RESPONSE MAINLY ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE CAD LIKE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WEAKEN A LITTLE SUN.
WITH LESS ISENT LIFT AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS...WILL FAVOR THE MTNS
WITH CHANCE POPS AND ISOL ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE
LESS THAN SAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS...THUS THUNDER WILL NOT BE MENTIONED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A
COUPLE CATS BELOW NORMAL BOTH SAT/SUN...WITH MINS RIGHT ARND OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN GOOD NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS SIGFNTLY AGAIN ON MON AS THE SE UPPER LOW
BECOMES DOMINANT AND THE NRN RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE SFC RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DECREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLUX AS A BROAD COASTAL TROF FORMS. THERE
WILL STILL BE A ENUF GENERAL LIFT AND INCREASING INSOL FOR AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSTMS. THUS...POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE SEASONAL RANGE. MAX
TEMPS AND TD/S WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND RECOVER SLOWLY AS THE
SFC FLOW IS HELD IN A NE/LY TO E/LY CONFIG DUE TO THE COASTAL
TROF...SO ANY THUNDER MENTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SRN BLUE RIDGE
WITHIN MTN TOP CONVERG. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON
CONDITIONS AT KAVL...BUT HAVE INCLUDED IFR VISBY THERE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD
THE SOUTH...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE 040-060 RANGE
IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATING STRATOCU THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EXPECTED AT KCLT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN SSE AND SSW.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 012028
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
428 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING OVERHEAD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...SHRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES OF THE NRN
MTNS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THEN TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS
COVERED. UPDATED MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS THE
MTNS...HAVE YET TO SEE ANY DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ATM IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...AND IT/S APPEARING THAT COVERAGE WILL
BE QUITE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...HAVEN/T GIVEN UP ON
CONVECTION YET...ESP IN LIGHT OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED CU FIELD...THUS
POPS WILL BE RETAINED IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING/S READINGS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT.

CONTINUED GRADUAL AIR MASS RECOVERY/INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND EVEN
MORE WARMTH...WITH PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY FOR WED AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
MODEST AT LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TO KICK THE AREA OF VORTICITY...CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
INDIANA...TO KICK TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. CHANCE POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FEATURED
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FHILLS...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA OF UPPER FORCING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
BE FEATURED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE OVERALL HEIGHT
FALLS AT 500 MB ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID AND UPR FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS AGREE ON SOME Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ATOP THE CWFA...ESP ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT THEN GIVE
WAY TO A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SO THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.
WHILE FRIDAY LOOKS MORE ACTIVE...AS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BETTER INSTBY...WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BNDRY. POPS RAMP UP TO SOLID CHC TO NEAR LIKELY IN THE MTNS AND
LOW-END CHC ACRS THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 90S ON THURSDAY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN ULVL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH ATL ENABLING A NA
OMEGA BLOCK AND A WEAKNESS OR BROAD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SE CONUS. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL ANCHOR A SFC HIGH ACROSS
NEW ENG WITH SFC RIDGING INTO THE SE REGION TO SOME DEGREE. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LLVL RIDGE AND THUS THE
QPF RESPONSE IN ISENT LIFTED ATL MOISTURE FLUX.

SAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
-SHRA...BUT WITH VARYING IDEAS TO THE PATTERN AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER END AND KEEP POPS IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT SHOULD BE LOW-END PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WEAK MLVL
FORCING...THUS WILL LOWER GENERAL THUNDER MENTION TO ISOL COVERAGE.
DECENT CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE LAYERED E/LY FLOW HOWEVER...AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A MODEST QPF RESPONSE MAINLY ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE CAD LIKE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WEAKEN A LITTLE SUN.
WITH LESS ISENT LIFT AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS...WILL FAVOR THE MTNS
WITH CHANCE POPS AND ISOL ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE
LESS THAN SAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS...THUS THUNDER WILL NOT BE MENTIONED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A
COUPLE CATS BELOW NORMAL BOTH SAT/SUN...WITH MINS RIGHT ARND OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN GOOD NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS SIGFNTLY AGAIN ON MON AS THE SE UPPER LOW
BECOMES DOMINANT AND THE NRN RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE SFC RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DECREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLUX AS A BROAD COASTAL TROF FORMS. THERE
WILL STILL BE A ENUF GENERAL LIFT AND INCREASING INSOL FOR AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSTMS. THUS...POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE SEASONAL RANGE. MAX
TEMPS AND TD/S WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND RECOVER SLOWLY AS THE
SFC FLOW IS HELD IN A NE/LY TO E/LY CONFIG DUE TO THE COASTAL
TROF...SO ANY THUNDER MENTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SRN BLUE RIDGE
WITHIN MTN TOP CONVERG. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON
CONDITIONS AT KAVL...BUT HAVE INCLUDED IFR VISBY THERE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD
THE SOUTH...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE 040-060 RANGE
IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATING STRATOCU THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EXPECTED AT KCLT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN SSE AND SSW.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 012028
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
428 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING OVERHEAD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...SHRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES OF THE NRN
MTNS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THEN TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS
COVERED. UPDATED MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS THE
MTNS...HAVE YET TO SEE ANY DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ATM IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...AND IT/S APPEARING THAT COVERAGE WILL
BE QUITE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...HAVEN/T GIVEN UP ON
CONVECTION YET...ESP IN LIGHT OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED CU FIELD...THUS
POPS WILL BE RETAINED IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING/S READINGS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT.

CONTINUED GRADUAL AIR MASS RECOVERY/INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND EVEN
MORE WARMTH...WITH PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY FOR WED AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
MODEST AT LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TO KICK THE AREA OF VORTICITY...CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
INDIANA...TO KICK TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. CHANCE POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FEATURED
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FHILLS...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA OF UPPER FORCING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
BE FEATURED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE OVERALL HEIGHT
FALLS AT 500 MB ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID AND UPR FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS AGREE ON SOME Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ATOP THE CWFA...ESP ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT THEN GIVE
WAY TO A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SO THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.
WHILE FRIDAY LOOKS MORE ACTIVE...AS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BETTER INSTBY...WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BNDRY. POPS RAMP UP TO SOLID CHC TO NEAR LIKELY IN THE MTNS AND
LOW-END CHC ACRS THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 90S ON THURSDAY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN ULVL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH ATL ENABLING A NA
OMEGA BLOCK AND A WEAKNESS OR BROAD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SE CONUS. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL ANCHOR A SFC HIGH ACROSS
NEW ENG WITH SFC RIDGING INTO THE SE REGION TO SOME DEGREE. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LLVL RIDGE AND THUS THE
QPF RESPONSE IN ISENT LIFTED ATL MOISTURE FLUX.

SAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
-SHRA...BUT WITH VARYING IDEAS TO THE PATTERN AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER END AND KEEP POPS IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT SHOULD BE LOW-END PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WEAK MLVL
FORCING...THUS WILL LOWER GENERAL THUNDER MENTION TO ISOL COVERAGE.
DECENT CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE LAYERED E/LY FLOW HOWEVER...AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A MODEST QPF RESPONSE MAINLY ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE CAD LIKE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WEAKEN A LITTLE SUN.
WITH LESS ISENT LIFT AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS...WILL FAVOR THE MTNS
WITH CHANCE POPS AND ISOL ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE
LESS THAN SAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS...THUS THUNDER WILL NOT BE MENTIONED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A
COUPLE CATS BELOW NORMAL BOTH SAT/SUN...WITH MINS RIGHT ARND OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN GOOD NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS SIGFNTLY AGAIN ON MON AS THE SE UPPER LOW
BECOMES DOMINANT AND THE NRN RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE SFC RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DECREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLUX AS A BROAD COASTAL TROF FORMS. THERE
WILL STILL BE A ENUF GENERAL LIFT AND INCREASING INSOL FOR AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSTMS. THUS...POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE SEASONAL RANGE. MAX
TEMPS AND TD/S WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND RECOVER SLOWLY AS THE
SFC FLOW IS HELD IN A NE/LY TO E/LY CONFIG DUE TO THE COASTAL
TROF...SO ANY THUNDER MENTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SRN BLUE RIDGE
WITHIN MTN TOP CONVERG. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON
CONDITIONS AT KAVL...BUT HAVE INCLUDED IFR VISBY THERE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD
THE SOUTH...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE 040-060 RANGE
IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATING STRATOCU THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EXPECTED AT KCLT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN SSE AND SSW.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011827
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING OVERHEAD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CU FIELD
CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS THE MTNS...HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATM IS WEAKLY
UNSTABLE...AND IT/S APPEARING THAT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...HAVEN/T GIVEN UP ON CONVECTION
YET...ESP IN LIGHT OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED CU FIELD...THUS  POPS WILL
BE RETAINED IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING/S READINGS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT.

CONTINUED GRADUAL AIR MASS RECOVERY/INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND EVEN
MORE WARMTH...WITH PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY FOR WED AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
MODEST AT LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TO KICK THE AREA OF VORTICITY...CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
INDIANA...TO KICK TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. CHANCE POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FEATURED
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FHILLS...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA OF UPPER FORCING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
BE FEATURED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE OVERALL HEIGHT
FALLS AT 500 MB ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID AND UPR FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS AGREE ON SOME Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ATOP THE CWFA...ESP ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT THEN GIVE
WAY TO A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SO THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.
WHILE FRIDAY LOOKS MORE ACTIVE...AS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BETTER INSTBY...WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BNDRY. POPS RAMP UP TO SOLID CHC TO NEAR LIKELY IN THE MTNS AND
LOW-END CHC ACRS THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 90S ON THURSDAY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN ULVL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH ATL ENABLING A NA
OMEGA BLOCK AND A WEAKNESS OR BROAD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SE CONUS. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL ANCHOR A SFC HIGH ACROSS
NEW ENG WITH SFC RIDGING INTO THE SE REGION TO SOME DEGREE. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LLVL RIDGE AND THUS THE
QPF RESPONSE IN ISENT LIFTED ATL MOISTURE FLUX.

SAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
-SHRA...BUT WITH VARYING IDEAS TO THE PATTERN AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER END AND KEEP POPS IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT SHOULD BE LOW-END PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WEAK MLVL
FORCING...THUS WILL LOWER GENERAL THUNDER MENTION TO ISOL COVERAGE.
DECENT CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE LAYERED E/LY FLOW HOWEVER...AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A MODEST QPF RESPONSE MAINLY ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE CAD LIKE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WEAKEN A LITTLE SUN.
WITH LESS ISENT LIFT AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS...WILL FAVOR THE MTNS
WITH CHANCE POPS AND ISOL ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE
LESS THAN SAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS...THUS THUNDER WILL NOT BE MENTIONED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A
COUPLE CATS BELOW NORMAL BOTH SAT/SUN...WITH MINS RIGHT ARND OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN GOOD NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS SIGFNTLY AGAIN ON MON AS THE SE UPPER LOW
BECOMES DOMINANT AND THE NRN RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE SFC RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DECREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLUX AS A BROAD COASTAL TROF FORMS. THERE
WILL STILL BE A ENUF GENERAL LIFT AND INCREASING INSOL FOR AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSTMS. THUS...POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE SEASONAL RANGE. MAX
TEMPS AND TD/S WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND RECOVER SLOWLY AS THE
SFC FLOW IS HELD IN A NE/LY TO E/LY CONFIG DUE TO THE COASTAL
TROF...SO ANY THUNDER MENTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SRN BLUE RIDGE
WITHIN MTN TOP CONVERG. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON
CONDITIONS AT KAVL...BUT HAVE INCLUDED IFR VISBY THERE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD
THE SOUTH...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE 040-060 RANGE
IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATING STRATOCU THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EXPECTED AT KCLT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN SSE AND SSW.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011827
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING OVERHEAD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CU FIELD
CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS THE MTNS...HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATM IS WEAKLY
UNSTABLE...AND IT/S APPEARING THAT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...HAVEN/T GIVEN UP ON CONVECTION
YET...ESP IN LIGHT OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED CU FIELD...THUS  POPS WILL
BE RETAINED IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING/S READINGS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT.

CONTINUED GRADUAL AIR MASS RECOVERY/INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND EVEN
MORE WARMTH...WITH PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY FOR WED AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
MODEST AT LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TO KICK THE AREA OF VORTICITY...CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
INDIANA...TO KICK TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. CHANCE POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FEATURED
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FHILLS...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA OF UPPER FORCING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
BE FEATURED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE OVERALL HEIGHT
FALLS AT 500 MB ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID AND UPR FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS AGREE ON SOME Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ATOP THE CWFA...ESP ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT THEN GIVE
WAY TO A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SO THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.
WHILE FRIDAY LOOKS MORE ACTIVE...AS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BETTER INSTBY...WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BNDRY. POPS RAMP UP TO SOLID CHC TO NEAR LIKELY IN THE MTNS AND
LOW-END CHC ACRS THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 90S ON THURSDAY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN ULVL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH ATL ENABLING A NA
OMEGA BLOCK AND A WEAKNESS OR BROAD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SE CONUS. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL ANCHOR A SFC HIGH ACROSS
NEW ENG WITH SFC RIDGING INTO THE SE REGION TO SOME DEGREE. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LLVL RIDGE AND THUS THE
QPF RESPONSE IN ISENT LIFTED ATL MOISTURE FLUX.

SAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
-SHRA...BUT WITH VARYING IDEAS TO THE PATTERN AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER END AND KEEP POPS IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT SHOULD BE LOW-END PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WEAK MLVL
FORCING...THUS WILL LOWER GENERAL THUNDER MENTION TO ISOL COVERAGE.
DECENT CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE LAYERED E/LY FLOW HOWEVER...AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A MODEST QPF RESPONSE MAINLY ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE CAD LIKE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WEAKEN A LITTLE SUN.
WITH LESS ISENT LIFT AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS...WILL FAVOR THE MTNS
WITH CHANCE POPS AND ISOL ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE
LESS THAN SAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS...THUS THUNDER WILL NOT BE MENTIONED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A
COUPLE CATS BELOW NORMAL BOTH SAT/SUN...WITH MINS RIGHT ARND OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN GOOD NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS SIGFNTLY AGAIN ON MON AS THE SE UPPER LOW
BECOMES DOMINANT AND THE NRN RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE SFC RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DECREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLUX AS A BROAD COASTAL TROF FORMS. THERE
WILL STILL BE A ENUF GENERAL LIFT AND INCREASING INSOL FOR AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSTMS. THUS...POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE SEASONAL RANGE. MAX
TEMPS AND TD/S WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND RECOVER SLOWLY AS THE
SFC FLOW IS HELD IN A NE/LY TO E/LY CONFIG DUE TO THE COASTAL
TROF...SO ANY THUNDER MENTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SRN BLUE RIDGE
WITHIN MTN TOP CONVERG. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON
CONDITIONS AT KAVL...BUT HAVE INCLUDED IFR VISBY THERE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD
THE SOUTH...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE 040-060 RANGE
IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATING STRATOCU THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EXPECTED AT KCLT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN SSE AND SSW.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011827
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING OVERHEAD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CU FIELD
CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS THE MTNS...HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATM IS WEAKLY
UNSTABLE...AND IT/S APPEARING THAT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...HAVEN/T GIVEN UP ON CONVECTION
YET...ESP IN LIGHT OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED CU FIELD...THUS  POPS WILL
BE RETAINED IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING/S READINGS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT.

CONTINUED GRADUAL AIR MASS RECOVERY/INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND EVEN
MORE WARMTH...WITH PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY FOR WED AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
MODEST AT LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TO KICK THE AREA OF VORTICITY...CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
INDIANA...TO KICK TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. CHANCE POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FEATURED
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FHILLS...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA OF UPPER FORCING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
BE FEATURED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE OVERALL HEIGHT
FALLS AT 500 MB ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID AND UPR FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS AGREE ON SOME Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ATOP THE CWFA...ESP ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT THEN GIVE
WAY TO A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SO THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.
WHILE FRIDAY LOOKS MORE ACTIVE...AS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BETTER INSTBY...WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BNDRY. POPS RAMP UP TO SOLID CHC TO NEAR LIKELY IN THE MTNS AND
LOW-END CHC ACRS THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 90S ON THURSDAY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN ULVL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH ATL ENABLING A NA
OMEGA BLOCK AND A WEAKNESS OR BROAD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SE CONUS. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL ANCHOR A SFC HIGH ACROSS
NEW ENG WITH SFC RIDGING INTO THE SE REGION TO SOME DEGREE. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LLVL RIDGE AND THUS THE
QPF RESPONSE IN ISENT LIFTED ATL MOISTURE FLUX.

SAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
-SHRA...BUT WITH VARYING IDEAS TO THE PATTERN AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER END AND KEEP POPS IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT SHOULD BE LOW-END PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WEAK MLVL
FORCING...THUS WILL LOWER GENERAL THUNDER MENTION TO ISOL COVERAGE.
DECENT CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE LAYERED E/LY FLOW HOWEVER...AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A MODEST QPF RESPONSE MAINLY ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE CAD LIKE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WEAKEN A LITTLE SUN.
WITH LESS ISENT LIFT AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS...WILL FAVOR THE MTNS
WITH CHANCE POPS AND ISOL ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE
LESS THAN SAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS...THUS THUNDER WILL NOT BE MENTIONED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A
COUPLE CATS BELOW NORMAL BOTH SAT/SUN...WITH MINS RIGHT ARND OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN GOOD NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS SIGFNTLY AGAIN ON MON AS THE SE UPPER LOW
BECOMES DOMINANT AND THE NRN RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE SFC RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DECREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLUX AS A BROAD COASTAL TROF FORMS. THERE
WILL STILL BE A ENUF GENERAL LIFT AND INCREASING INSOL FOR AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSTMS. THUS...POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE SEASONAL RANGE. MAX
TEMPS AND TD/S WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND RECOVER SLOWLY AS THE
SFC FLOW IS HELD IN A NE/LY TO E/LY CONFIG DUE TO THE COASTAL
TROF...SO ANY THUNDER MENTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SRN BLUE RIDGE
WITHIN MTN TOP CONVERG. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON
CONDITIONS AT KAVL...BUT HAVE INCLUDED IFR VISBY THERE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD
THE SOUTH...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE 040-060 RANGE
IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATING STRATOCU THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EXPECTED AT KCLT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN SSE AND SSW.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011827
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING OVERHEAD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CU FIELD
CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS THE MTNS...HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATM IS WEAKLY
UNSTABLE...AND IT/S APPEARING THAT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...HAVEN/T GIVEN UP ON CONVECTION
YET...ESP IN LIGHT OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED CU FIELD...THUS  POPS WILL
BE RETAINED IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING/S READINGS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT.

CONTINUED GRADUAL AIR MASS RECOVERY/INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND EVEN
MORE WARMTH...WITH PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY FOR WED AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
MODEST AT LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TO KICK THE AREA OF VORTICITY...CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
INDIANA...TO KICK TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. CHANCE POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FEATURED
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FHILLS...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA OF UPPER FORCING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
BE FEATURED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE OVERALL HEIGHT
FALLS AT 500 MB ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID AND UPR FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS AGREE ON SOME Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ATOP THE CWFA...ESP ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT THEN GIVE
WAY TO A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SO THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.
WHILE FRIDAY LOOKS MORE ACTIVE...AS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BETTER INSTBY...WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BNDRY. POPS RAMP UP TO SOLID CHC TO NEAR LIKELY IN THE MTNS AND
LOW-END CHC ACRS THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 90S ON THURSDAY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AND A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN ULVL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH ATL ENABLING A NA
OMEGA BLOCK AND A WEAKNESS OR BROAD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SE CONUS. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL ANCHOR A SFC HIGH ACROSS
NEW ENG WITH SFC RIDGING INTO THE SE REGION TO SOME DEGREE. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LLVL RIDGE AND THUS THE
QPF RESPONSE IN ISENT LIFTED ATL MOISTURE FLUX.

SAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
-SHRA...BUT WITH VARYING IDEAS TO THE PATTERN AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...WILL SIDE ON THE LOWER END AND KEEP POPS IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR
THAT SHOULD BE LOW-END PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WEAK MLVL
FORCING...THUS WILL LOWER GENERAL THUNDER MENTION TO ISOL COVERAGE.
DECENT CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE LAYERED E/LY FLOW HOWEVER...AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A MODEST QPF RESPONSE MAINLY ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE CAD LIKE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WEAKEN A LITTLE SUN.
WITH LESS ISENT LIFT AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS...WILL FAVOR THE MTNS
WITH CHANCE POPS AND ISOL ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE
LESS THAN SAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS...THUS THUNDER WILL NOT BE MENTIONED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A
COUPLE CATS BELOW NORMAL BOTH SAT/SUN...WITH MINS RIGHT ARND OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN GOOD NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS SIGFNTLY AGAIN ON MON AS THE SE UPPER LOW
BECOMES DOMINANT AND THE NRN RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS WILL
WEAKEN THE SFC RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DECREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLUX AS A BROAD COASTAL TROF FORMS. THERE
WILL STILL BE A ENUF GENERAL LIFT AND INCREASING INSOL FOR AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSTMS. THUS...POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE SEASONAL RANGE. MAX
TEMPS AND TD/S WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND RECOVER SLOWLY AS THE
SFC FLOW IS HELD IN A NE/LY TO E/LY CONFIG DUE TO THE COASTAL
TROF...SO ANY THUNDER MENTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SRN BLUE RIDGE
WITHIN MTN TOP CONVERG. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON
CONDITIONS AT KAVL...BUT HAVE INCLUDED IFR VISBY THERE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD
THE SOUTH...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE 040-060 RANGE
IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATING STRATOCU THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EXPECTED AT KCLT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN SSE AND SSW.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS THE
MTNS...HAVE YET TO SEE ANY DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ATM IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...AND AM BEGINNING TO THINK AFTERNOON
POPS MAY BE TOO HIGH...BUT WILL REVISIT THIS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...AND THE ONLY CHANGE TO POPS WAS TO ADJUST TIMING TO LATER IN
THE DAY. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 OR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AS OF 11 AM...BEGINNING TO SEE THE CU FIELD EXPAND QUICKLY ALONG THE
RIDGE TOPS OF THE NC MTNS. PROFILES ON REGIONAL RAOBS ARE
CONSIDERABLY DRIER (PWATS ABOUT 20 PERCENT LOWER THAN AT 12Z
YESTERDAY). MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY IS NOT NOTABLY DIFFERENT THAN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND I SUPPOSE WE/LL SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR
TODAY...ESP WITH WARMER TEMPS EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING MORE ROBUST
INSTABILITY. FORECAST POPS SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND I GUESS I WON/T ARGUE WITH THAT MUCH...ESP
IN LIGHT OF THE QUICKLY DEVELOPING CU FIELD...AND THIS IS GENERALLY
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SHORT TERM AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. STEERING
CURRENTS AND ANY COLD POOL PROPAGATION EFFECTS SHOULD CARRY ACTIVITY
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS...SO POPS WERE TRIMMED A BIT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/FHILLS OF SC/GA. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST
WAS INCREASED SUCH THAT MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD
REACH 90...IF NOT TOP IT BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW LINGERING
PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS STILL TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE IR LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWS STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77...AND PATCHY FOG WORDING WILL BE
RETAINED THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BUILD OVER THE SE TODAY
BEFORE FALLING A BIT FROM THE N TONIGHT AS A WAVE GETS PICKED UP
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND CARRIED EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE EXTREME SE COASTLINE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SPARSER IN PROFILES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN MODEL
PROFILES...EXPECT A REPEAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO 90 DEGREES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH MILD MINS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF A H5 RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER FL AS A S/W TROF RIPPLES SE ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS AND NC. GFS INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE VORT MAX
WITHIN THE S/W WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS WILL FALL UNDER
A REGION OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE S/W...WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WIDE FIELD OF
INSTABILITY...LATE AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF THE S/W...AND MODERATE STORM
MOTIONS...IT APPEARS TSRA COVERAGE WILL FAVOR THE NC ZONES. I WILL
FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS...WITH
SCHC TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
SHOULD RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILE...WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. I
WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...A LONGWAVE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENING TO 595 DM DURING THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FORM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TO DEEP SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A SFC HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A INCREASE OF RIDGING ARRIVING OVER THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. MODEL CAPES INDICATE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POPS SHOULD VERIFY WELL WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA.
SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN
WILL PEAK DURING THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT
PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE. THE NE WINDS...BKN TO OVC SKY COVER...SCT
SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M
TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON SAT. I WILL COOL HIGH FOR SAT...BUT WILL SHOULD TEMPS
GENERALLY 5 DEGREE WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES. ON SUNDAY...NE
WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS A DEGREE
THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 2 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON
CONDITIONS AT KAVL...BUT HAVE INCLUDED IFR VISBY THERE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD
THE SOUTH...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE 040-060 RANGE
IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATING STRATOCU THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EXPECTED AT KCLT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN SSE AND SSW.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%     LOW   50%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%     LOW   50%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%     LOW   50%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%     LOW   50%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%     LOW   50%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%     LOW   50%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS THE
MTNS...HAVE YET TO SEE ANY DEEP CONVECTION INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ATM IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...AND AM BEGINNING TO THINK AFTERNOON
POPS MAY BE TOO HIGH...BUT WILL REVISIT THIS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...AND THE ONLY CHANGE TO POPS WAS TO ADJUST TIMING TO LATER IN
THE DAY. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 OR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AS OF 11 AM...BEGINNING TO SEE THE CU FIELD EXPAND QUICKLY ALONG THE
RIDGE TOPS OF THE NC MTNS. PROFILES ON REGIONAL RAOBS ARE
CONSIDERABLY DRIER (PWATS ABOUT 20 PERCENT LOWER THAN AT 12Z
YESTERDAY). MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY IS NOT NOTABLY DIFFERENT THAN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND I SUPPOSE WE/LL SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR
TODAY...ESP WITH WARMER TEMPS EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING MORE ROBUST
INSTABILITY. FORECAST POPS SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND I GUESS I WON/T ARGUE WITH THAT MUCH...ESP
IN LIGHT OF THE QUICKLY DEVELOPING CU FIELD...AND THIS IS GENERALLY
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SHORT TERM AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. STEERING
CURRENTS AND ANY COLD POOL PROPAGATION EFFECTS SHOULD CARRY ACTIVITY
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS...SO POPS WERE TRIMMED A BIT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/FHILLS OF SC/GA. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST
WAS INCREASED SUCH THAT MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD
REACH 90...IF NOT TOP IT BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW LINGERING
PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS STILL TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE IR LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWS STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77...AND PATCHY FOG WORDING WILL BE
RETAINED THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BUILD OVER THE SE TODAY
BEFORE FALLING A BIT FROM THE N TONIGHT AS A WAVE GETS PICKED UP
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND CARRIED EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE EXTREME SE COASTLINE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SPARSER IN PROFILES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN MODEL
PROFILES...EXPECT A REPEAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO 90 DEGREES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH MILD MINS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF A H5 RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER FL AS A S/W TROF RIPPLES SE ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS AND NC. GFS INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE VORT MAX
WITHIN THE S/W WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS WILL FALL UNDER
A REGION OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE S/W...WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WIDE FIELD OF
INSTABILITY...LATE AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF THE S/W...AND MODERATE STORM
MOTIONS...IT APPEARS TSRA COVERAGE WILL FAVOR THE NC ZONES. I WILL
FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS...WITH
SCHC TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
SHOULD RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILE...WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. I
WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...A LONGWAVE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENING TO 595 DM DURING THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FORM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TO DEEP SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A SFC HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A INCREASE OF RIDGING ARRIVING OVER THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. MODEL CAPES INDICATE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POPS SHOULD VERIFY WELL WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA.
SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN
WILL PEAK DURING THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT
PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE. THE NE WINDS...BKN TO OVC SKY COVER...SCT
SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M
TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON SAT. I WILL COOL HIGH FOR SAT...BUT WILL SHOULD TEMPS
GENERALLY 5 DEGREE WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES. ON SUNDAY...NE
WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS A DEGREE
THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 2 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON
CONDITIONS AT KAVL...BUT HAVE INCLUDED IFR VISBY THERE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD
THE SOUTH...BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE 040-060 RANGE
IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATING STRATOCU THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION EXPECTED AT KCLT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN SSE AND SSW.

OUTLOOK...A PATTERN OF DIURNAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%     LOW   50%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%     LOW   50%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%     LOW   50%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%     LOW   50%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%     LOW   50%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%     LOW   50%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011519
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1119 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM...BEGINNING TO SEE THE CU FIELD EXPAND QUICKLY ALONG THE
RIDGE TOPS OF THE NC MTNS. PROFILES ON REGIONAL RAOBS ARE
CONSIDERABLY DRIER (PWATS ABOUT 20 PERCENT LOWER THAN AT 12Z
YESTERDAY). MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY IS NOT NOTABLY DIFFERENT THAN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND I SUPPOSE WE/LL SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR
TODAY...ESP WITH WARMER TEMPS EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING MORE ROBUST
INSTABILITY. FORECAST POPS SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND I GUESS I WON/T ARGUE WITH THAT MUCH...ESP
IN LIGHT OF THE QUICKLY DEVELOPING CU FIELD...AND THIS IS GENERALLY
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SHORT TERM AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. STEERING
CURRENTS AND ANY COLD POOL PROPAGATION EFFECTS SHOULD CARRY ACTIVITY
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS...SO POPS WERE TRIMMED A BIT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/FHILLS OF SC/GA. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST
WAS INCREASED SUCH THAT MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD
REACH 90...IF NOT TOP IT BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW LINGERING
PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS STILL TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE IR LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWS STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77...AND PATCHY FOG WORDING WILL BE
RETAINED THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BUILD OVER THE SE TODAY
BEFORE FALLING A BIT FROM THE N TONIGHT AS A WAVE GETS PICKED UP
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND CARRIED EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE EXTREME SE COASTLINE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SPARSER IN PROFILES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN MODEL
PROFILES...EXPECT A REPEAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO 90 DEGREES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH MILD MINS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF A H5 RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER FL AS A S/W TROF RIPPLES SE ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS AND NC. GFS INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE VORT MAX
WITHIN THE S/W WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS WILL FALL UNDER
A REGION OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE S/W...WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WIDE FIELD OF
INSTABILITY...LATE AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF THE S/W...AND MODERATE STORM
MOTIONS...IT APPEARS TSRA COVERAGE WILL FAVOR THE NC ZONES. I WILL
FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS...WITH
SCHC TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
SHOULD RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILE...WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. I
WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...A LONGWAVE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENING TO 595 DM DURING THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FORM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TO DEEP SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A SFC HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A INCREASE OF RIDGING ARRIVING OVER THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. MODEL CAPES INDICATE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POPS SHOULD VERIFY WELL WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA.
SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN
WILL PEAK DURING THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT
PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE. THE NE WINDS...BKN TO OVC SKY COVER...SCT
SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M
TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON SAT. I WILL COOL HIGH FOR SAT...BUT WILL SHOULD TEMPS
GENERALLY 5 DEGREE WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES. ON SUNDAY...NE
WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS A DEGREE
THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 2 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...PATCHY VLIFR/LIFR STRATUS EAST OF THE AIRFIELD...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPING PATCHY FOG...REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS
MORNING. THE LAMP MOS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE RESERVED ON MORNING
RESTRICTIONS SO WILL ONLY MENTION SOME TEMPO MVFR FOG FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS PAST DAYBREAK. VFR CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP WITH HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE NE GIVEN THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...AFFECTING KAVL. VFR CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING TODAY. PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH
INSTABILITY...BUT INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL
WHERE A VCTS WILL BE ADVERTISED. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT...WITH MORE N TO NE FLOW EARLY...BECOMING MORE SRLY AT
THE UPSTATE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011519
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1119 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM...BEGINNING TO SEE THE CU FIELD EXPAND QUICKLY ALONG THE
RIDGE TOPS OF THE NC MTNS. PROFILES ON REGIONAL RAOBS ARE
CONSIDERABLY DRIER (PWATS ABOUT 20 PERCENT LOWER THAN AT 12Z
YESTERDAY). MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY IS NOT NOTABLY DIFFERENT THAN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND I SUPPOSE WE/LL SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR
TODAY...ESP WITH WARMER TEMPS EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING MORE ROBUST
INSTABILITY. FORECAST POPS SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND I GUESS I WON/T ARGUE WITH THAT MUCH...ESP
IN LIGHT OF THE QUICKLY DEVELOPING CU FIELD...AND THIS IS GENERALLY
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SHORT TERM AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. STEERING
CURRENTS AND ANY COLD POOL PROPAGATION EFFECTS SHOULD CARRY ACTIVITY
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS...SO POPS WERE TRIMMED A BIT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/FHILLS OF SC/GA. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST
WAS INCREASED SUCH THAT MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD
REACH 90...IF NOT TOP IT BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW LINGERING
PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS STILL TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE IR LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWS STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77...AND PATCHY FOG WORDING WILL BE
RETAINED THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BUILD OVER THE SE TODAY
BEFORE FALLING A BIT FROM THE N TONIGHT AS A WAVE GETS PICKED UP
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND CARRIED EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE EXTREME SE COASTLINE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SPARSER IN PROFILES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN MODEL
PROFILES...EXPECT A REPEAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO 90 DEGREES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH MILD MINS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF A H5 RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER FL AS A S/W TROF RIPPLES SE ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS AND NC. GFS INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE VORT MAX
WITHIN THE S/W WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS WILL FALL UNDER
A REGION OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE S/W...WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WIDE FIELD OF
INSTABILITY...LATE AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF THE S/W...AND MODERATE STORM
MOTIONS...IT APPEARS TSRA COVERAGE WILL FAVOR THE NC ZONES. I WILL
FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS...WITH
SCHC TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
SHOULD RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILE...WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. I
WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...A LONGWAVE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENING TO 595 DM DURING THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FORM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TO DEEP SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A SFC HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A INCREASE OF RIDGING ARRIVING OVER THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. MODEL CAPES INDICATE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POPS SHOULD VERIFY WELL WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA.
SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN
WILL PEAK DURING THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT
PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE. THE NE WINDS...BKN TO OVC SKY COVER...SCT
SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M
TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON SAT. I WILL COOL HIGH FOR SAT...BUT WILL SHOULD TEMPS
GENERALLY 5 DEGREE WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES. ON SUNDAY...NE
WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS A DEGREE
THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 2 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...PATCHY VLIFR/LIFR STRATUS EAST OF THE AIRFIELD...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPING PATCHY FOG...REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS
MORNING. THE LAMP MOS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE RESERVED ON MORNING
RESTRICTIONS SO WILL ONLY MENTION SOME TEMPO MVFR FOG FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS PAST DAYBREAK. VFR CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP WITH HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE NE GIVEN THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...AFFECTING KAVL. VFR CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING TODAY. PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH
INSTABILITY...BUT INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL
WHERE A VCTS WILL BE ADVERTISED. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT...WITH MORE N TO NE FLOW EARLY...BECOMING MORE SRLY AT
THE UPSTATE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 011519
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1119 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM...BEGINNING TO SEE THE CU FIELD EXPAND QUICKLY ALONG THE
RIDGE TOPS OF THE NC MTNS. PROFILES ON REGIONAL RAOBS ARE
CONSIDERABLY DRIER (PWATS ABOUT 20 PERCENT LOWER THAN AT 12Z
YESTERDAY). MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY IS NOT NOTABLY DIFFERENT THAN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND I SUPPOSE WE/LL SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR
TODAY...ESP WITH WARMER TEMPS EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING MORE ROBUST
INSTABILITY. FORECAST POPS SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND I GUESS I WON/T ARGUE WITH THAT MUCH...ESP
IN LIGHT OF THE QUICKLY DEVELOPING CU FIELD...AND THIS IS GENERALLY
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SHORT TERM AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. STEERING
CURRENTS AND ANY COLD POOL PROPAGATION EFFECTS SHOULD CARRY ACTIVITY
EAST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS...SO POPS WERE TRIMMED A BIT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/FHILLS OF SC/GA. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST
WAS INCREASED SUCH THAT MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD
REACH 90...IF NOT TOP IT BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW LINGERING
PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS STILL TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE IR LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWS STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77...AND PATCHY FOG WORDING WILL BE
RETAINED THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BUILD OVER THE SE TODAY
BEFORE FALLING A BIT FROM THE N TONIGHT AS A WAVE GETS PICKED UP
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND CARRIED EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE EXTREME SE COASTLINE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SPARSER IN PROFILES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN MODEL
PROFILES...EXPECT A REPEAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO 90 DEGREES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH MILD MINS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF A H5 RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER FL AS A S/W TROF RIPPLES SE ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS AND NC. GFS INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE VORT MAX
WITHIN THE S/W WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS WILL FALL UNDER
A REGION OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE S/W...WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WIDE FIELD OF
INSTABILITY...LATE AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF THE S/W...AND MODERATE STORM
MOTIONS...IT APPEARS TSRA COVERAGE WILL FAVOR THE NC ZONES. I WILL
FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS...WITH
SCHC TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
SHOULD RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILE...WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. I
WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...A LONGWAVE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENING TO 595 DM DURING THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FORM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TO DEEP SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A SFC HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A INCREASE OF RIDGING ARRIVING OVER THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. MODEL CAPES INDICATE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POPS SHOULD VERIFY WELL WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA.
SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN
WILL PEAK DURING THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT
PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE. THE NE WINDS...BKN TO OVC SKY COVER...SCT
SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M
TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON SAT. I WILL COOL HIGH FOR SAT...BUT WILL SHOULD TEMPS
GENERALLY 5 DEGREE WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES. ON SUNDAY...NE
WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS A DEGREE
THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 2 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...PATCHY VLIFR/LIFR STRATUS EAST OF THE AIRFIELD...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPING PATCHY FOG...REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS
MORNING. THE LAMP MOS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE RESERVED ON MORNING
RESTRICTIONS SO WILL ONLY MENTION SOME TEMPO MVFR FOG FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS PAST DAYBREAK. VFR CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP WITH HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE NE GIVEN THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...AFFECTING KAVL. VFR CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING TODAY. PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH
INSTABILITY...BUT INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL
WHERE A VCTS WILL BE ADVERTISED. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT...WITH MORE N TO NE FLOW EARLY...BECOMING MORE SRLY AT
THE UPSTATE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011051
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW LINGERING
PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS STILL TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE IR LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWS STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77...AND PATCHY FOG WORDING WILL BE
RETAINED THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BUILD OVER THE SE TODAY
BEFORE FALLING A BIT FROM THE N TONIGHT AS A WAVE GETS PICKED UP
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND CARRIED EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE EXTREME SE COASTLINE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SPARSER IN PROFILES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN MODEL
PROFILES...EXPECT A REPEAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO 90 DEGREES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH MILD MINS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF A H5 RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER FL AS A S/W TROF RIPPLES SE ACROSS THE
VIRGINAS AND NC. GFS INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE VORT MAX
WITHIN THE S/W WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS WILL FALL UNDER
A REGION OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE S/W...WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WIDE FIELD OF
INSTABILITY...LATE AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF THE S/W...AND MODERATE STORM
MOTIONS...IT APPEARS TSRA COVERAGE WILL FAVOR THE NC ZONES. I WILL
FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS...WITH
SCHC TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
SHOULD RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILE...WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. I
WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...A LONGWAVE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENING TO 595 DM DURING THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FORM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TO DEEP SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A SFC HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A INCREASE OF RIDGING ARRIVING OVER THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. MODEL CAPES INDICATE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POPS SHOULD VERIFY WELL WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA.
SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN
WILL PEAK DURING THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT
PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE. THE NE WINDS...BKN TO OVC SKY COVER...SCT
SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M
TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON SAT. I WILL COOL HIGH FOR SAT...BUT WILL SHOULD TEMPS
GENERALLY 5 DEGREE WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES. ON SUNDAY...NE
WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS A DEGREE
THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 2 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...PATCHY VLIFR/LIFR STRATUS EAST OF THE AIRFIELD...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPING PATCHY FOG...REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS
MORNING. THE LAMP MOS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE RESERVED ON MORNING
RESTRICTIONS SO WILL ONLY MENTION SOME TEMPO MVFR FOG FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS PAST DAYBREAK. VFR CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP WITH HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE NE GIVEN THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...AFFECTING KAVL. VFR CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING TODAY. PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH
INSTABILITY...BUT INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL
WHERE A VCTS WILL BE ADVERTISED. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT...WITH MORE N TO NE FLOW EARLY...BECOMING MORE SRLY AT
THE UPSTATE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011051
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW LINGERING
PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS STILL TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE IR LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWS STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77...AND PATCHY FOG WORDING WILL BE
RETAINED THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BUILD OVER THE SE TODAY
BEFORE FALLING A BIT FROM THE N TONIGHT AS A WAVE GETS PICKED UP
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND CARRIED EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE EXTREME SE COASTLINE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SPARSER IN PROFILES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN MODEL
PROFILES...EXPECT A REPEAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO 90 DEGREES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH MILD MINS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF A H5 RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER FL AS A S/W TROF RIPPLES SE ACROSS THE
VIRGINAS AND NC. GFS INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE VORT MAX
WITHIN THE S/W WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS WILL FALL UNDER
A REGION OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE S/W...WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WIDE FIELD OF
INSTABILITY...LATE AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF THE S/W...AND MODERATE STORM
MOTIONS...IT APPEARS TSRA COVERAGE WILL FAVOR THE NC ZONES. I WILL
FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS...WITH
SCHC TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
SHOULD RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILE...WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. I
WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...A LONGWAVE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENING TO 595 DM DURING THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FORM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TO DEEP SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A SFC HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A INCREASE OF RIDGING ARRIVING OVER THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. MODEL CAPES INDICATE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POPS SHOULD VERIFY WELL WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA.
SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN
WILL PEAK DURING THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT
PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE. THE NE WINDS...BKN TO OVC SKY COVER...SCT
SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M
TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON SAT. I WILL COOL HIGH FOR SAT...BUT WILL SHOULD TEMPS
GENERALLY 5 DEGREE WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES. ON SUNDAY...NE
WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS A DEGREE
THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 2 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...PATCHY VLIFR/LIFR STRATUS EAST OF THE AIRFIELD...ALONG
WITH DEVELOPING PATCHY FOG...REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS
MORNING. THE LAMP MOS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE RESERVED ON MORNING
RESTRICTIONS SO WILL ONLY MENTION SOME TEMPO MVFR FOG FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS PAST DAYBREAK. VFR CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP WITH HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE NE GIVEN THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...AFFECTING KAVL. VFR CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING TODAY. PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH
INSTABILITY...BUT INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL
WHERE A VCTS WILL BE ADVERTISED. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT...WITH MORE N TO NE FLOW EARLY...BECOMING MORE SRLY AT
THE UPSTATE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010846
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
446 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE
STRATOCUMULUS FANNED OUT UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS
DISSIPATED...WITH THE LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWING CONSIDERABLE STRATUS
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77. ADDITIONAL PATCHY
FOG WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO EASTERN SECTIONS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BUILD OVER THE SE TODAY
BEFORE FALLING A BIT FROM THE N TONIGHT AS A WAVE GETS PICKED UP
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND CARRIED EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE EXTREME SE COASTLINE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SPARSER IN PROFILES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN MODEL
PROFILES...EXPECT A REPEAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO 90 DEGREES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH MILD MINS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF A H5 RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER FL AS A S/W TROF RIPPLES SE ACROSS THE
VIRGINAS AND NC. GFS INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE VORT MAX
WITHIN THE S/W WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS WILL FALL UNDER
A REGION OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE S/W...WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WIDE FIELD OF
INSTABILITY...LATE AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF THE S/W...AND MODERATE STORM
MOTIONS...IT APPEARS TSRA COVERAGE WILL FAVOR THE NC ZONES. I WILL
FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS...WITH
SCHC TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
SHOULD RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILE...WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. I
WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...A LONGWAVE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENING TO 595 DM DURING THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FORM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TO DEEP SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A SFC HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A INCREASE OF RIDGING ARRIVING OVER THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. MODEL CAPES INDICATE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POPS SHOULD VERIFY WELL WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA.
SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN
WILL PEAK DURING THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT
PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE. THE NE WINDS...BKN TO OVC SKY COVER...SCT
SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M
TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON SAT. I WILL COOL HIGH FOR SAT...BUT WILL SHOULD TEMPS
GENERALLY 5 DEGREE WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES. ON SUNDAY...NE
WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS A DEGREE
THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 2 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...STRATOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED...LEAVING MAINLY PATCHY VLIFR/LIFR
STRATUS EAST OF THE AIRFIELD AS THE PRIMARY CONDERN THIS MORNING.
THE LAMP MOS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE RESERVED ON MORNING RESTRICTIONS
SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF FOR NOW. VFR CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP
WITH HEATING ON WED. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY WILL TURN AROUND THE DIAL
TOWARD SRLY THROUGH THE DAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL
PERSIST ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
BE IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...AFFECTING KAVL. VFR CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING TODAY. PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH
INSTABILITY...BUT INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL
WHERE A PROB30 WILL BE ADVERTISED. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT...WITH MORE N TO NE FLOW IN WRN NC AND MORE SRLY FLOW AT
THE UPSTATE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 010846
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
446 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE
STRATOCUMULUS FANNED OUT UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS
DISSIPATED...WITH THE LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWING CONSIDERABLE STRATUS
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77. ADDITIONAL PATCHY
FOG WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO EASTERN SECTIONS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BUILD OVER THE SE TODAY
BEFORE FALLING A BIT FROM THE N TONIGHT AS A WAVE GETS PICKED UP
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND CARRIED EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE EXTREME SE COASTLINE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SPARSER IN PROFILES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN MODEL
PROFILES...EXPECT A REPEAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO 90 DEGREES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH MILD MINS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF A H5 RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER FL AS A S/W TROF RIPPLES SE ACROSS THE
VIRGINAS AND NC. GFS INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE VORT MAX
WITHIN THE S/W WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS WILL FALL UNDER
A REGION OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE S/W...WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WIDE FIELD OF
INSTABILITY...LATE AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF THE S/W...AND MODERATE STORM
MOTIONS...IT APPEARS TSRA COVERAGE WILL FAVOR THE NC ZONES. I WILL
FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS...WITH
SCHC TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
SHOULD RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILE...WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. I
WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...A LONGWAVE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENING TO 595 DM DURING THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FORM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TO DEEP SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A SFC HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A INCREASE OF RIDGING ARRIVING OVER THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. MODEL CAPES INDICATE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POPS SHOULD VERIFY WELL WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA.
SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN
WILL PEAK DURING THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT
PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE. THE NE WINDS...BKN TO OVC SKY COVER...SCT
SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M
TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON SAT. I WILL COOL HIGH FOR SAT...BUT WILL SHOULD TEMPS
GENERALLY 5 DEGREE WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES. ON SUNDAY...NE
WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS A DEGREE
THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 2 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...STRATOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED...LEAVING MAINLY PATCHY VLIFR/LIFR
STRATUS EAST OF THE AIRFIELD AS THE PRIMARY CONDERN THIS MORNING.
THE LAMP MOS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE RESERVED ON MORNING RESTRICTIONS
SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF FOR NOW. VFR CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP
WITH HEATING ON WED. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY WILL TURN AROUND THE DIAL
TOWARD SRLY THROUGH THE DAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL
PERSIST ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
BE IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...AFFECTING KAVL. VFR CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING TODAY. PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH
INSTABILITY...BUT INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL
WHERE A PROB30 WILL BE ADVERTISED. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT...WITH MORE N TO NE FLOW IN WRN NC AND MORE SRLY FLOW AT
THE UPSTATE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010716
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS FANNED OUT UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON DAYBREAK FOG DEVELOPMENT. STILL ANTICIPATE THE BEST
FOG/LOW CLOUD CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...BUT MODEL
PROFILES ALSO FEATURE SOME PATCHY STRATUS IN THE PIEDMONT AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BUILD OVER THE SE TODAY
BEFORE FALLING A BIT FROM THE N TONIGHT AS A WAVE GETS PICKED UP
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND CARRIED EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE EXTREME SE COASTLINE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SPARSER IN PROFILES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN MODEL
PROFILES...EXPECT A REPEAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO 90 DEGREES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH MILD MINS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF A H5 RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER FL AS A S/W TROF RIPPLES SE ACROSS THE
VIRGINAS AND NC. GFS INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE VORT MAX
WITHIN THE S/W WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS WILL FALL UNDER
A REGION OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE S/W...WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WIDE FIELD OF
INSTABILITY...LATE AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF THE S/W...AND MODERATE STORM
MOTIONS...IT APPEARS TSRA COVERAGE WILL FAVOR THE NC ZONES. I WILL
FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS...WITH
SCHC TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
SHOULD RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILE...WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. I
WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...A LONGWAVE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENING TO 595 DM DURING THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FORM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TO DEEP SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A SFC HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A INCREASE OF RIDGING ARRIVING OVER THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. MODEL CAPES INDICATE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POPS SHOULD VERIFY WELL WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA.
SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN
WILL PEAK DURING THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT
PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE. THE NE WINDS...BKN TO OVC SKY COVER...SCT
SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M
TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON SAT. I WILL COOL HIGH FOR SAT...BUT WILL SHOULD TEMPS
GENERALLY 5 DEGREE WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES. ON SUNDAY...NE
WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS A DEGREE
THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 2 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...STRATOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION HAS GENERALLY THINNED OUT TO THE WEST OF THE AIRFIELD.
LESS OVERNIGHT CLOUDS MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF DAYBREAK LOW
STRATUS AND FOG AS HINTED IN THE MODEL PROFILES. HOWEVER...THE MOS
IS QUITE RESERVED ON MORNING RESTRICTIONS SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR
NOW. VFR CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP WITH HEATING ON WED. LIGHT NW WINDS
EARLY WILL TURN AROUND THE DIAL TOWARD SRLY THROUGH THE DAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL
PERSIST ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
BE IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...AFFECTING KAVL. VFR CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING TODAY. PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH
INSTABILITY...BUT INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL
WHERE A PROB30 WILL BE ADVERTISED. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT...WITH MORE N TO NE FLOW IN WRN NC AND MORE SRLY FLOW AT
THE UPSTATE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 010716
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS FANNED OUT UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON DAYBREAK FOG DEVELOPMENT. STILL ANTICIPATE THE BEST
FOG/LOW CLOUD CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...BUT MODEL
PROFILES ALSO FEATURE SOME PATCHY STRATUS IN THE PIEDMONT AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BUILD OVER THE SE TODAY
BEFORE FALLING A BIT FROM THE N TONIGHT AS A WAVE GETS PICKED UP
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND CARRIED EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE EXTREME SE COASTLINE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SPARSER IN PROFILES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN MODEL
PROFILES...EXPECT A REPEAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO 90 DEGREES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH MILD MINS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF A H5 RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER FL AS A S/W TROF RIPPLES SE ACROSS THE
VIRGINAS AND NC. GFS INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE VORT MAX
WITHIN THE S/W WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS WILL FALL UNDER
A REGION OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE S/W...WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WIDE FIELD OF
INSTABILITY...LATE AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF THE S/W...AND MODERATE STORM
MOTIONS...IT APPEARS TSRA COVERAGE WILL FAVOR THE NC ZONES. I WILL
FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT NC FOOTHILLS...WITH
SCHC TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 90S EAST.

ON THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
SHOULD RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILE...WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. I
WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...A LONGWAVE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENING TO 595 DM DURING THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FORM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TO DEEP SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A SFC HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A INCREASE OF RIDGING ARRIVING OVER THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. MODEL CAPES INDICATE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POPS SHOULD VERIFY WELL WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA.
SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN
WILL PEAK DURING THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE GFS INDICATES THAT
PIEDMONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO MARGINALLY GUSTY NE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE. THE NE WINDS...BKN TO OVC SKY COVER...SCT
SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE 2M
TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON SAT. I WILL COOL HIGH FOR SAT...BUT WILL SHOULD TEMPS
GENERALLY 5 DEGREE WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL VALUES. ON SUNDAY...NE
WINDS APPEAR AS STRONG AS SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER APPEARS A DEGREE
THINNER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT LIKELY 2 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. ON MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
I WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. HIGHS TEMPS MAY
RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...STRATOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION HAS GENERALLY THINNED OUT TO THE WEST OF THE AIRFIELD.
LESS OVERNIGHT CLOUDS MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF DAYBREAK LOW
STRATUS AND FOG AS HINTED IN THE MODEL PROFILES. HOWEVER...THE MOS
IS QUITE RESERVED ON MORNING RESTRICTIONS SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR
NOW. VFR CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP WITH HEATING ON WED. LIGHT NW WINDS
EARLY WILL TURN AROUND THE DIAL TOWARD SRLY THROUGH THE DAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL
PERSIST ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
BE IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...AFFECTING KAVL. VFR CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING TODAY. PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH
INSTABILITY...BUT INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL
WHERE A PROB30 WILL BE ADVERTISED. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT...WITH MORE N TO NE FLOW IN WRN NC AND MORE SRLY FLOW AT
THE UPSTATE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010553
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS
FANNED OUT UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT THIS CLOUD
LAYER SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
DAYBREAK FOG DEVELOPMENT. STILL ANTICIPATE THE BEST FOG/LOW CLOUD
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...BUT MODEL PROFILES ALSO
FEATURE SOME PATCHY STRATUS IN THE PIEDMONT AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BUILD OVER THE SE TODAY
BEFORE FALLING A BIT FROM THE N TONIGHT AS A WAVE GETS PICKED UP
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND CARRIED EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE EXTREME SE COASTLINE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SPARSER IN PROFILES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN MODEL
PROFILES...EXPECT A REPEAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO 90 DEGREES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH MILD MINS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MEAN RIDGE WHICH WILL GIVE THE AREA TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.  A WELL-DEFINED SMALL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
INDIANA...WHICH IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...WILL PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THUNDER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...THROUGH THURSDAY.  DUE TO THE ISOLATION OF THE INDIANA
SHORTWAVE FROM THE MEAN FLOW...PREDICTIONS OF ITS MOVEMENT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT INACCURATE...HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE WAVE BEING SLIGHTLY ENTRAINED INTO WHAT
BECOMES BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MOVES THE LOBE ACROSS THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE BEST MODEL
INSTABILITY IN THE NAM AT AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AND HARDLY ANY
LOW-LEVEL WINDSHEAR.  WITH A LITTLE FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDING A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WELL INTO CANADA. AN EAST
COAST TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WHERE A RESIDUAL CLOSED-LOW CIRCULATION REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PARENT CLOSED-
LOW CENTERED OVER LABRADOR SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AS PERSISTENT
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH OR
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE RESIDUAL TROUGH...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE QUITE WEAK AND TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
BUT EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ANCHOR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE PATTERN FAVORS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESEMBLING
A COLD-AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. THE RESULTANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL VEER EASTERLY AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE THE PATTERN FAVORS UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE ABOVE PATTERN FAVORS CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL DROP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH INCREASED OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...STRATOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
HAS GENERALLY THINNED OUT TO THE WEST OF THE AIRFIELD. LESS OVERNIGHT
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF DAYBREAK LOW STRATUS AND FOG AS
HINTED IN THE MODEL PROFILES. HOWEVER...THE MOS IS QUITE RESERVED ON
MORNING RESTRICTIONS SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW. VFR CUMULUS WILL
REDEVELOP WITH HEATING ON WED. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY WILL TURN AROUND
THE DIAL TOWARD SRLY THROUGH THE DAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL
PERSIST ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
BE IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...AFFECTING KAVL. VFR CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING TODAY. PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH
INSTABILITY...BUT INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL
WHERE A PROB30 WILL BE ADVERTISED. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT...WITH MORE N TO NE FLOW IN WRN NC AND MORE SRLY FLOW AT
THE UPSTATE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 010553
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS
FANNED OUT UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT THIS CLOUD
LAYER SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
DAYBREAK FOG DEVELOPMENT. STILL ANTICIPATE THE BEST FOG/LOW CLOUD
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...BUT MODEL PROFILES ALSO
FEATURE SOME PATCHY STRATUS IN THE PIEDMONT AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BUILD OVER THE SE TODAY
BEFORE FALLING A BIT FROM THE N TONIGHT AS A WAVE GETS PICKED UP
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND CARRIED EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE EXTREME SE COASTLINE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SPARSER IN PROFILES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN MODEL
PROFILES...EXPECT A REPEAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO 90 DEGREES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH MILD MINS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MEAN RIDGE WHICH WILL GIVE THE AREA TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.  A WELL-DEFINED SMALL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
INDIANA...WHICH IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...WILL PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THUNDER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...THROUGH THURSDAY.  DUE TO THE ISOLATION OF THE INDIANA
SHORTWAVE FROM THE MEAN FLOW...PREDICTIONS OF ITS MOVEMENT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT INACCURATE...HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE WAVE BEING SLIGHTLY ENTRAINED INTO WHAT
BECOMES BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MOVES THE LOBE ACROSS THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE BEST MODEL
INSTABILITY IN THE NAM AT AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AND HARDLY ANY
LOW-LEVEL WINDSHEAR.  WITH A LITTLE FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDING A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WELL INTO CANADA. AN EAST
COAST TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WHERE A RESIDUAL CLOSED-LOW CIRCULATION REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PARENT CLOSED-
LOW CENTERED OVER LABRADOR SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AS PERSISTENT
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH OR
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE RESIDUAL TROUGH...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE QUITE WEAK AND TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
BUT EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ANCHOR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE PATTERN FAVORS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESEMBLING
A COLD-AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. THE RESULTANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL VEER EASTERLY AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE THE PATTERN FAVORS UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE ABOVE PATTERN FAVORS CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL DROP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH INCREASED OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...STRATOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
HAS GENERALLY THINNED OUT TO THE WEST OF THE AIRFIELD. LESS OVERNIGHT
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF DAYBREAK LOW STRATUS AND FOG AS
HINTED IN THE MODEL PROFILES. HOWEVER...THE MOS IS QUITE RESERVED ON
MORNING RESTRICTIONS SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW. VFR CUMULUS WILL
REDEVELOP WITH HEATING ON WED. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY WILL TURN AROUND
THE DIAL TOWARD SRLY THROUGH THE DAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL
PERSIST ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
BE IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...AFFECTING KAVL. VFR CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING TODAY. PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH
INSTABILITY...BUT INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL
WHERE A PROB30 WILL BE ADVERTISED. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT...WITH MORE N TO NE FLOW IN WRN NC AND MORE SRLY FLOW AT
THE UPSTATE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010553
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS
FANNED OUT UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT THIS CLOUD
LAYER SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
DAYBREAK FOG DEVELOPMENT. STILL ANTICIPATE THE BEST FOG/LOW CLOUD
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...BUT MODEL PROFILES ALSO
FEATURE SOME PATCHY STRATUS IN THE PIEDMONT AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BUILD OVER THE SE TODAY
BEFORE FALLING A BIT FROM THE N TONIGHT AS A WAVE GETS PICKED UP
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND CARRIED EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE EXTREME SE COASTLINE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SPARSER IN PROFILES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN MODEL
PROFILES...EXPECT A REPEAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO 90 DEGREES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH MILD MINS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MEAN RIDGE WHICH WILL GIVE THE AREA TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.  A WELL-DEFINED SMALL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
INDIANA...WHICH IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...WILL PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THUNDER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...THROUGH THURSDAY.  DUE TO THE ISOLATION OF THE INDIANA
SHORTWAVE FROM THE MEAN FLOW...PREDICTIONS OF ITS MOVEMENT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT INACCURATE...HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE WAVE BEING SLIGHTLY ENTRAINED INTO WHAT
BECOMES BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MOVES THE LOBE ACROSS THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE BEST MODEL
INSTABILITY IN THE NAM AT AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AND HARDLY ANY
LOW-LEVEL WINDSHEAR.  WITH A LITTLE FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDING A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WELL INTO CANADA. AN EAST
COAST TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WHERE A RESIDUAL CLOSED-LOW CIRCULATION REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PARENT CLOSED-
LOW CENTERED OVER LABRADOR SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AS PERSISTENT
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH OR
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE RESIDUAL TROUGH...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE QUITE WEAK AND TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
BUT EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ANCHOR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE PATTERN FAVORS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESEMBLING
A COLD-AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. THE RESULTANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL VEER EASTERLY AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE THE PATTERN FAVORS UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE ABOVE PATTERN FAVORS CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL DROP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH INCREASED OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...STRATOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
HAS GENERALLY THINNED OUT TO THE WEST OF THE AIRFIELD. LESS OVERNIGHT
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF DAYBREAK LOW STRATUS AND FOG AS
HINTED IN THE MODEL PROFILES. HOWEVER...THE MOS IS QUITE RESERVED ON
MORNING RESTRICTIONS SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW. VFR CUMULUS WILL
REDEVELOP WITH HEATING ON WED. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY WILL TURN AROUND
THE DIAL TOWARD SRLY THROUGH THE DAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL
PERSIST ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
BE IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...AFFECTING KAVL. VFR CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING TODAY. PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH
INSTABILITY...BUT INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL
WHERE A PROB30 WILL BE ADVERTISED. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT...WITH MORE N TO NE FLOW IN WRN NC AND MORE SRLY FLOW AT
THE UPSTATE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 010553
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS
FANNED OUT UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT THIS CLOUD
LAYER SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
DAYBREAK FOG DEVELOPMENT. STILL ANTICIPATE THE BEST FOG/LOW CLOUD
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...BUT MODEL PROFILES ALSO
FEATURE SOME PATCHY STRATUS IN THE PIEDMONT AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BUILD OVER THE SE TODAY
BEFORE FALLING A BIT FROM THE N TONIGHT AS A WAVE GETS PICKED UP
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND CARRIED EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE EXTREME SE COASTLINE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SPARSER IN PROFILES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN MODEL
PROFILES...EXPECT A REPEAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO 90 DEGREES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH MILD MINS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MEAN RIDGE WHICH WILL GIVE THE AREA TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.  A WELL-DEFINED SMALL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
INDIANA...WHICH IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...WILL PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THUNDER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...THROUGH THURSDAY.  DUE TO THE ISOLATION OF THE INDIANA
SHORTWAVE FROM THE MEAN FLOW...PREDICTIONS OF ITS MOVEMENT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT INACCURATE...HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE WAVE BEING SLIGHTLY ENTRAINED INTO WHAT
BECOMES BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MOVES THE LOBE ACROSS THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE BEST MODEL
INSTABILITY IN THE NAM AT AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AND HARDLY ANY
LOW-LEVEL WINDSHEAR.  WITH A LITTLE FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDING A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WELL INTO CANADA. AN EAST
COAST TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WHERE A RESIDUAL CLOSED-LOW CIRCULATION REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PARENT CLOSED-
LOW CENTERED OVER LABRADOR SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AS PERSISTENT
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH OR
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE RESIDUAL TROUGH...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE QUITE WEAK AND TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
BUT EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ANCHOR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE PATTERN FAVORS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESEMBLING
A COLD-AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. THE RESULTANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL VEER EASTERLY AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE THE PATTERN FAVORS UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE ABOVE PATTERN FAVORS CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL DROP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH INCREASED OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...STRATOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
HAS GENERALLY THINNED OUT TO THE WEST OF THE AIRFIELD. LESS OVERNIGHT
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF DAYBREAK LOW STRATUS AND FOG AS
HINTED IN THE MODEL PROFILES. HOWEVER...THE MOS IS QUITE RESERVED ON
MORNING RESTRICTIONS SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW. VFR CUMULUS WILL
REDEVELOP WITH HEATING ON WED. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY WILL TURN AROUND
THE DIAL TOWARD SRLY THROUGH THE DAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL
PERSIST ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
BE IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS...AFFECTING KAVL. VFR CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING TODAY. PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH
INSTABILITY...BUT INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE BEST NEAR KAVL
WHERE A PROB30 WILL BE ADVERTISED. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT...WITH MORE N TO NE FLOW IN WRN NC AND MORE SRLY FLOW AT
THE UPSTATE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010225
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED BUT STRATOCU LINGER AND ARE
EVEN EXPANDING. THIS IS LIKELY THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MENTIONED EARLIER. GOOD NEWS IS THE
CLOUDS ARE VFR. BAD NEWS IS THIS COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMP FCST AND
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...STILL HAVE THE CLOUDS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WITH MTN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AND ONLY A CHANGE IN TEMP
DIURNAL CURVE...NOT THE RESULTANT LOW TEMP.

AS OF 730 PM...LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. THE LINGERING CU OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...BUT DISSIPATE MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MTNS. DESPITE
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...GUIDANCE
SHOWS LITTLE CHC OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE W TO NW. HAVE BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS IN RESPONSE. FCST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW FOG LIKELY IN THE MTN VALLEYS BECOMING PATCHY DENSE
TOWARD MORNING. FCST LOWS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 425 PM...RADAR SHOWING RIDGE TOP SHRA TRYING TO DEVELOP. BEST
CU FIELDS ARE ALSO THERE. CURRENT FCST TREND OF WITH ISOLATED POP
LIMITED TO THOSE AREAS STILL LOOKS GOOD...BUT CHC OF ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IS DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...FCST ON TRACK WITH UPDATES
MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 230 PM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST THRU
THE NEAR TERM. AT THE SFC...A RATHER NEBULOUS PRES PATTERN EXISTS
ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK CENTER OF HIGH PRES
ROUGHLY ACRS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR JUST TO THE WEST. THIS SET
UP HAS TRAPPED SOME LLVL MOISTURE UNDER A STRENGTHENING MID LVL
INVERSION. THE FLOW IS SO WEAK HOWEVER...THAT THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION OR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OTHER THAN TERRAIN EFFECTS.
THERE IS STILL A SLGT CHC OF MAINLY SHWRS ACRS THE NC MTNS...BUT THE
REST OF THE AREA SHUD BE DRY THRU TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.

TUESDAY...WITH THE CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING...EXPECT THE MID LVLS TO
REMAIN WARM...AND PUT A LID OF MOST DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPS LOOK TO
REBOUND TO A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE DEWPTS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IF NOT A DEG OR TWO HIGHER. SO THERE SHUD BE A
LITTLE BETTER INSTBY...DESPITE UNFAVORABLE MID LVLS. I WILL FCST
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC AFTN SHWRS AND TSTMS ACRS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILL ZONES...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN
TRIGGER. THE PIEDMONT SHUD BE LARGELY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MEAN RIDGE WHICH WILL GIVE THE AREA TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.  A WELL-DEFINED SMALL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
INDIANA...WHICH IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...WILL PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THUNDER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...THROUGH THURSDAY.  DUE TO THE ISOLATION OF THE INDIANA
SHORTWAVE FROM THE MEAN FLOW...PREDICTIONS OF ITS MOVEMENT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT INACCURATE...HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE WAVE BEING SLIGHTLY ENTRAINED INTO WHAT
BECOMES BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MOVES THE LOBE ACROSS THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE BEST MODEL
INSTABILITY IN THE NAM AT AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AND HARDLY ANY
LOW-LEVEL WINDSHEAR.  WITH A LITTLE FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDING A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WELL INTO CANADA. AN EAST
COAST TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WHERE A RESIDUAL CLOSED-LOW CIRCULATION REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PARENT CLOSED-
LOW CENTERED OVER LABRADOR SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AS PERSISTENT
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH OR
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE RESIDUAL TROUGH...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE QUITE WEAK AND TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
BUT EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ANCHOR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE PATTERN FAVORS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESEMBLING
A COLD-AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. THE RESULTANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL VEER EASTERLY AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE THE PATTERN FAVORS UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE ABOVE PATTERN FAVORS CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL DROP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH INCREASED OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR CU SCATTERING OUT AND SHUD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON CHC OF RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HOWEVER...ANY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WLY TO
NWLY. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE VFR. EXPECT LOW VFR CU TO REDEVELOP WITH HEATING TUE. LIGHT
NELY WIND THIS EVENING BECOMES CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT NNE TUE.

ELSEWHERE...THE UPSTATE SITES WILL CLEAR OUT MORE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...STILL LITTLE CHC OF RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH KAND
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE MVFR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. LIGHT S TO
SW WIND BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT S TO SE TUE WITH FEW VFR
CU DEVELOPING. BKN CU AT HKY WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING...WITH
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. KAVL HAS THE BEST CHC OF FOG
WITH IFR LIKELY AND VLIFR POSSIBLE. SHUD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF BKN
VFR CU THERE. CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT CHC
TOO LOW FOR THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010225
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED BUT STRATOCU LINGER AND ARE
EVEN EXPANDING. THIS IS LIKELY THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MENTIONED EARLIER. GOOD NEWS IS THE
CLOUDS ARE VFR. BAD NEWS IS THIS COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMP FCST AND
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...STILL HAVE THE CLOUDS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WITH MTN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AND ONLY A CHANGE IN TEMP
DIURNAL CURVE...NOT THE RESULTANT LOW TEMP.

AS OF 730 PM...LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. THE LINGERING CU OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...BUT DISSIPATE MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MTNS. DESPITE
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...GUIDANCE
SHOWS LITTLE CHC OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE W TO NW. HAVE BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS IN RESPONSE. FCST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW FOG LIKELY IN THE MTN VALLEYS BECOMING PATCHY DENSE
TOWARD MORNING. FCST LOWS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 425 PM...RADAR SHOWING RIDGE TOP SHRA TRYING TO DEVELOP. BEST
CU FIELDS ARE ALSO THERE. CURRENT FCST TREND OF WITH ISOLATED POP
LIMITED TO THOSE AREAS STILL LOOKS GOOD...BUT CHC OF ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IS DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...FCST ON TRACK WITH UPDATES
MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 230 PM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST THRU
THE NEAR TERM. AT THE SFC...A RATHER NEBULOUS PRES PATTERN EXISTS
ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK CENTER OF HIGH PRES
ROUGHLY ACRS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR JUST TO THE WEST. THIS SET
UP HAS TRAPPED SOME LLVL MOISTURE UNDER A STRENGTHENING MID LVL
INVERSION. THE FLOW IS SO WEAK HOWEVER...THAT THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION OR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OTHER THAN TERRAIN EFFECTS.
THERE IS STILL A SLGT CHC OF MAINLY SHWRS ACRS THE NC MTNS...BUT THE
REST OF THE AREA SHUD BE DRY THRU TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.

TUESDAY...WITH THE CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING...EXPECT THE MID LVLS TO
REMAIN WARM...AND PUT A LID OF MOST DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPS LOOK TO
REBOUND TO A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE DEWPTS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IF NOT A DEG OR TWO HIGHER. SO THERE SHUD BE A
LITTLE BETTER INSTBY...DESPITE UNFAVORABLE MID LVLS. I WILL FCST
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC AFTN SHWRS AND TSTMS ACRS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILL ZONES...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN
TRIGGER. THE PIEDMONT SHUD BE LARGELY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MEAN RIDGE WHICH WILL GIVE THE AREA TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.  A WELL-DEFINED SMALL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
INDIANA...WHICH IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...WILL PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THUNDER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...THROUGH THURSDAY.  DUE TO THE ISOLATION OF THE INDIANA
SHORTWAVE FROM THE MEAN FLOW...PREDICTIONS OF ITS MOVEMENT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT INACCURATE...HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE WAVE BEING SLIGHTLY ENTRAINED INTO WHAT
BECOMES BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MOVES THE LOBE ACROSS THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE BEST MODEL
INSTABILITY IN THE NAM AT AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AND HARDLY ANY
LOW-LEVEL WINDSHEAR.  WITH A LITTLE FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDING A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WELL INTO CANADA. AN EAST
COAST TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WHERE A RESIDUAL CLOSED-LOW CIRCULATION REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PARENT CLOSED-
LOW CENTERED OVER LABRADOR SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AS PERSISTENT
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH OR
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE RESIDUAL TROUGH...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE QUITE WEAK AND TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
BUT EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ANCHOR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE PATTERN FAVORS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESEMBLING
A COLD-AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. THE RESULTANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL VEER EASTERLY AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE THE PATTERN FAVORS UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE ABOVE PATTERN FAVORS CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL DROP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH INCREASED OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR CU SCATTERING OUT AND SHUD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON CHC OF RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HOWEVER...ANY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WLY TO
NWLY. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE VFR. EXPECT LOW VFR CU TO REDEVELOP WITH HEATING TUE. LIGHT
NELY WIND THIS EVENING BECOMES CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT NNE TUE.

ELSEWHERE...THE UPSTATE SITES WILL CLEAR OUT MORE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...STILL LITTLE CHC OF RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH KAND
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE MVFR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. LIGHT S TO
SW WIND BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT S TO SE TUE WITH FEW VFR
CU DEVELOPING. BKN CU AT HKY WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING...WITH
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. KAVL HAS THE BEST CHC OF FOG
WITH IFR LIKELY AND VLIFR POSSIBLE. SHUD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF BKN
VFR CU THERE. CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT CHC
TOO LOW FOR THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 010225
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED BUT STRATOCU LINGER AND ARE
EVEN EXPANDING. THIS IS LIKELY THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MENTIONED EARLIER. GOOD NEWS IS THE
CLOUDS ARE VFR. BAD NEWS IS THIS COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMP FCST AND
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...STILL HAVE THE CLOUDS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WITH MTN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AND ONLY A CHANGE IN TEMP
DIURNAL CURVE...NOT THE RESULTANT LOW TEMP.

AS OF 730 PM...LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. THE LINGERING CU OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...BUT DISSIPATE MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MTNS. DESPITE
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...GUIDANCE
SHOWS LITTLE CHC OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE W TO NW. HAVE BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS IN RESPONSE. FCST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW FOG LIKELY IN THE MTN VALLEYS BECOMING PATCHY DENSE
TOWARD MORNING. FCST LOWS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 425 PM...RADAR SHOWING RIDGE TOP SHRA TRYING TO DEVELOP. BEST
CU FIELDS ARE ALSO THERE. CURRENT FCST TREND OF WITH ISOLATED POP
LIMITED TO THOSE AREAS STILL LOOKS GOOD...BUT CHC OF ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IS DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...FCST ON TRACK WITH UPDATES
MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 230 PM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST THRU
THE NEAR TERM. AT THE SFC...A RATHER NEBULOUS PRES PATTERN EXISTS
ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK CENTER OF HIGH PRES
ROUGHLY ACRS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR JUST TO THE WEST. THIS SET
UP HAS TRAPPED SOME LLVL MOISTURE UNDER A STRENGTHENING MID LVL
INVERSION. THE FLOW IS SO WEAK HOWEVER...THAT THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION OR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OTHER THAN TERRAIN EFFECTS.
THERE IS STILL A SLGT CHC OF MAINLY SHWRS ACRS THE NC MTNS...BUT THE
REST OF THE AREA SHUD BE DRY THRU TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.

TUESDAY...WITH THE CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING...EXPECT THE MID LVLS TO
REMAIN WARM...AND PUT A LID OF MOST DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPS LOOK TO
REBOUND TO A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE DEWPTS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IF NOT A DEG OR TWO HIGHER. SO THERE SHUD BE A
LITTLE BETTER INSTBY...DESPITE UNFAVORABLE MID LVLS. I WILL FCST
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC AFTN SHWRS AND TSTMS ACRS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILL ZONES...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN
TRIGGER. THE PIEDMONT SHUD BE LARGELY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MEAN RIDGE WHICH WILL GIVE THE AREA TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.  A WELL-DEFINED SMALL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
INDIANA...WHICH IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...WILL PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THUNDER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...THROUGH THURSDAY.  DUE TO THE ISOLATION OF THE INDIANA
SHORTWAVE FROM THE MEAN FLOW...PREDICTIONS OF ITS MOVEMENT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT INACCURATE...HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE WAVE BEING SLIGHTLY ENTRAINED INTO WHAT
BECOMES BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MOVES THE LOBE ACROSS THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE BEST MODEL
INSTABILITY IN THE NAM AT AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AND HARDLY ANY
LOW-LEVEL WINDSHEAR.  WITH A LITTLE FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDING A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WELL INTO CANADA. AN EAST
COAST TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WHERE A RESIDUAL CLOSED-LOW CIRCULATION REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PARENT CLOSED-
LOW CENTERED OVER LABRADOR SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AS PERSISTENT
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH OR
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE RESIDUAL TROUGH...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE QUITE WEAK AND TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
BUT EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ANCHOR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE PATTERN FAVORS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESEMBLING
A COLD-AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. THE RESULTANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL VEER EASTERLY AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE THE PATTERN FAVORS UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE ABOVE PATTERN FAVORS CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL DROP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH INCREASED OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR CU SCATTERING OUT AND SHUD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON CHC OF RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HOWEVER...ANY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WLY TO
NWLY. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE VFR. EXPECT LOW VFR CU TO REDEVELOP WITH HEATING TUE. LIGHT
NELY WIND THIS EVENING BECOMES CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT NNE TUE.

ELSEWHERE...THE UPSTATE SITES WILL CLEAR OUT MORE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...STILL LITTLE CHC OF RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH KAND
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE MVFR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. LIGHT S TO
SW WIND BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT S TO SE TUE WITH FEW VFR
CU DEVELOPING. BKN CU AT HKY WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING...WITH
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. KAVL HAS THE BEST CHC OF FOG
WITH IFR LIKELY AND VLIFR POSSIBLE. SHUD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF BKN
VFR CU THERE. CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT CHC
TOO LOW FOR THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 010225
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED BUT STRATOCU LINGER AND ARE
EVEN EXPANDING. THIS IS LIKELY THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MENTIONED EARLIER. GOOD NEWS IS THE
CLOUDS ARE VFR. BAD NEWS IS THIS COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMP FCST AND
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...STILL HAVE THE CLOUDS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WITH MTN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AND ONLY A CHANGE IN TEMP
DIURNAL CURVE...NOT THE RESULTANT LOW TEMP.

AS OF 730 PM...LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. THE LINGERING CU OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...BUT DISSIPATE MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MTNS. DESPITE
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...GUIDANCE
SHOWS LITTLE CHC OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE W TO NW. HAVE BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS IN RESPONSE. FCST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW FOG LIKELY IN THE MTN VALLEYS BECOMING PATCHY DENSE
TOWARD MORNING. FCST LOWS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 425 PM...RADAR SHOWING RIDGE TOP SHRA TRYING TO DEVELOP. BEST
CU FIELDS ARE ALSO THERE. CURRENT FCST TREND OF WITH ISOLATED POP
LIMITED TO THOSE AREAS STILL LOOKS GOOD...BUT CHC OF ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IS DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...FCST ON TRACK WITH UPDATES
MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 230 PM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST THRU
THE NEAR TERM. AT THE SFC...A RATHER NEBULOUS PRES PATTERN EXISTS
ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK CENTER OF HIGH PRES
ROUGHLY ACRS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR JUST TO THE WEST. THIS SET
UP HAS TRAPPED SOME LLVL MOISTURE UNDER A STRENGTHENING MID LVL
INVERSION. THE FLOW IS SO WEAK HOWEVER...THAT THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION OR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OTHER THAN TERRAIN EFFECTS.
THERE IS STILL A SLGT CHC OF MAINLY SHWRS ACRS THE NC MTNS...BUT THE
REST OF THE AREA SHUD BE DRY THRU TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.

TUESDAY...WITH THE CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING...EXPECT THE MID LVLS TO
REMAIN WARM...AND PUT A LID OF MOST DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPS LOOK TO
REBOUND TO A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE DEWPTS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IF NOT A DEG OR TWO HIGHER. SO THERE SHUD BE A
LITTLE BETTER INSTBY...DESPITE UNFAVORABLE MID LVLS. I WILL FCST
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC AFTN SHWRS AND TSTMS ACRS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILL ZONES...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN
TRIGGER. THE PIEDMONT SHUD BE LARGELY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MEAN RIDGE WHICH WILL GIVE THE AREA TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.  A WELL-DEFINED SMALL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
INDIANA...WHICH IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...WILL PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THUNDER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...THROUGH THURSDAY.  DUE TO THE ISOLATION OF THE INDIANA
SHORTWAVE FROM THE MEAN FLOW...PREDICTIONS OF ITS MOVEMENT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT INACCURATE...HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE WAVE BEING SLIGHTLY ENTRAINED INTO WHAT
BECOMES BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MOVES THE LOBE ACROSS THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE BEST MODEL
INSTABILITY IN THE NAM AT AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AND HARDLY ANY
LOW-LEVEL WINDSHEAR.  WITH A LITTLE FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDING A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WELL INTO CANADA. AN EAST
COAST TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WHERE A RESIDUAL CLOSED-LOW CIRCULATION REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PARENT CLOSED-
LOW CENTERED OVER LABRADOR SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AS PERSISTENT
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH OR
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE RESIDUAL TROUGH...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE QUITE WEAK AND TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
BUT EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ANCHOR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE PATTERN FAVORS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESEMBLING
A COLD-AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. THE RESULTANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL VEER EASTERLY AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE THE PATTERN FAVORS UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE ABOVE PATTERN FAVORS CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL DROP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH INCREASED OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR CU SCATTERING OUT AND SHUD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON CHC OF RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HOWEVER...ANY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WLY TO
NWLY. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE VFR. EXPECT LOW VFR CU TO REDEVELOP WITH HEATING TUE. LIGHT
NELY WIND THIS EVENING BECOMES CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT NNE TUE.

ELSEWHERE...THE UPSTATE SITES WILL CLEAR OUT MORE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...STILL LITTLE CHC OF RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH KAND
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE MVFR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. LIGHT S TO
SW WIND BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT S TO SE TUE WITH FEW VFR
CU DEVELOPING. BKN CU AT HKY WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING...WITH
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. KAVL HAS THE BEST CHC OF FOG
WITH IFR LIKELY AND VLIFR POSSIBLE. SHUD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF BKN
VFR CU THERE. CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT CHC
TOO LOW FOR THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     LOW   59%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 312335
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
735 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. THE LINGERING CU OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...BUT DISSIPATE MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MTNS. DESPITE
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...GUIDANCE
SHOWS LITTLE CHC OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE W TO NW. HAVE BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS IN RESPONSE. FCST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW FOG LIKELY IN THE MTN VALLEYS BECOMING PATCHY DENSE
TOWARD MORNING. FCST LOWS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 425 PM...RADAR SHOWING RIDGE TOP SHRA TRYING TO DEVELOP. BEST
CU FIELDS ARE ALSO THERE. CURRENT FCST TREND OF WITH ISOLATED POP
LIMITED TO THOSE AREAS STILL LOOKS GOOD...BUT CHC OF ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IS DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...FCST ON TRACK WITH UPDATES
MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 230 PM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST THRU
THE NEAR TERM. AT THE SFC...A RATHER NEBULOUS PRES PATTERN EXISTS
ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK CENTER OF HIGH PRES
ROUGHLY ACRS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR JUST TO THE WEST. THIS SET
UP HAS TRAPPED SOME LLVL MOISTURE UNDER A STRENGTHENING MID LVL
INVERSION. THE FLOW IS SO WEAK HOWEVER...THAT THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION OR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OTHER THAN TERRAIN EFFECTS.
THERE IS STILL A SLGT CHC OF MAINLY SHWRS ACRS THE NC MTNS...BUT THE
REST OF THE AREA SHUD BE DRY THRU TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.

TUESDAY...WITH THE CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING...EXPECT THE MID LVLS TO
REMAIN WARM...AND PUT A LID OF MOST DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPS LOOK TO
REBOUND TO A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE DEWPTS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IF NOT A DEG OR TWO HIGHER. SO THERE SHUD BE A
LITTLE BETTER INSTBY...DESPITE UNFAVORABLE MID LVLS. I WILL FCST
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC AFTN SHWRS AND TSTMS ACRS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILL ZONES...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN
TRIGGER. THE PIEDMONT SHUD BE LARGELY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MEAN RIDGE WHICH WILL GIVE THE AREA TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.  A WELL-DEFINED SMALL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
INDIANA...WHICH IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...WILL PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THUNDER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...THROUGH THURSDAY.  DUE TO THE ISOLATION OF THE INDIANA
SHORTWAVE FROM THE MEAN FLOW...PREDICTIONS OF ITS MOVEMENT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT INACCURATE...HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE WAVE BEING SLIGHTLY ENTRAINED INTO WHAT
BECOMES BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MOVES THE LOBE ACROSS THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE BEST MODEL
INSTABILITY IN THE NAM AT AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AND HARDLY ANY
LOW-LEVEL WINDSHEAR.  WITH A LITTLE FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDING A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WELL INTO CANADA. AN EAST
COAST TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WHERE A RESIDUAL CLOSED-LOW CIRCULATION REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PARENT CLOSED-
LOW CENTERED OVER LABRADOR SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AS PERSISTENT
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH OR
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE RESIDUAL TROUGH...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE QUITE WEAK AND TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
BUT EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ANCHOR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE PATTERN FAVORS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESEMBLING
A COLD-AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. THE RESULTANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL VEER EASTERLY AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE THE PATTERN FAVORS UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE ABOVE PATTERN FAVORS CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL DROP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH INCREASED OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR CU SCATTERING OUT AND SHUD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON CHC OF RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HOWEVER...ANY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WLY TO
NWLY. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE VFR. EXPECT LOW VFR CU TO REDEVELOP WITH HEATING TUE. LIGHT
NELY WIND THIS EVENING BECOMES CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT NNE TUE.

ELSEWHERE...THE UPSTATE SITES WILL CLEAR OUT MORE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...STILL LITTLE CHC OF RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH KAND
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE MVFR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. LIGHT S TO
SW WIND BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT S TO SE TUE WITH FEW VFR
CU DEVELOPING. BKN CU AT HKY WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING...WITH
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. KAVL HAS THE BEST CHC OF FOG
WITH IFR LIKELY AND VLIFR POSSIBLE. SHUD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF BKN
VFR CU THERE. CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT CHC
TOO LOW FOR THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     LOW   29%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 312335
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
735 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...LINGERING SHRA ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. THE LINGERING CU OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...BUT DISSIPATE MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MTNS. DESPITE
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...GUIDANCE
SHOWS LITTLE CHC OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE W TO NW. HAVE BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS IN RESPONSE. FCST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW FOG LIKELY IN THE MTN VALLEYS BECOMING PATCHY DENSE
TOWARD MORNING. FCST LOWS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 425 PM...RADAR SHOWING RIDGE TOP SHRA TRYING TO DEVELOP. BEST
CU FIELDS ARE ALSO THERE. CURRENT FCST TREND OF WITH ISOLATED POP
LIMITED TO THOSE AREAS STILL LOOKS GOOD...BUT CHC OF ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IS DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...FCST ON TRACK WITH UPDATES
MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 230 PM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST THRU
THE NEAR TERM. AT THE SFC...A RATHER NEBULOUS PRES PATTERN EXISTS
ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK CENTER OF HIGH PRES
ROUGHLY ACRS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR JUST TO THE WEST. THIS SET
UP HAS TRAPPED SOME LLVL MOISTURE UNDER A STRENGTHENING MID LVL
INVERSION. THE FLOW IS SO WEAK HOWEVER...THAT THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION OR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OTHER THAN TERRAIN EFFECTS.
THERE IS STILL A SLGT CHC OF MAINLY SHWRS ACRS THE NC MTNS...BUT THE
REST OF THE AREA SHUD BE DRY THRU TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.

TUESDAY...WITH THE CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING...EXPECT THE MID LVLS TO
REMAIN WARM...AND PUT A LID OF MOST DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPS LOOK TO
REBOUND TO A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE DEWPTS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IF NOT A DEG OR TWO HIGHER. SO THERE SHUD BE A
LITTLE BETTER INSTBY...DESPITE UNFAVORABLE MID LVLS. I WILL FCST
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC AFTN SHWRS AND TSTMS ACRS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILL ZONES...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN
TRIGGER. THE PIEDMONT SHUD BE LARGELY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MEAN RIDGE WHICH WILL GIVE THE AREA TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.  A WELL-DEFINED SMALL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
INDIANA...WHICH IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...WILL PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THUNDER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...THROUGH THURSDAY.  DUE TO THE ISOLATION OF THE INDIANA
SHORTWAVE FROM THE MEAN FLOW...PREDICTIONS OF ITS MOVEMENT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT INACCURATE...HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE WAVE BEING SLIGHTLY ENTRAINED INTO WHAT
BECOMES BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MOVES THE LOBE ACROSS THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE BEST MODEL
INSTABILITY IN THE NAM AT AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AND HARDLY ANY
LOW-LEVEL WINDSHEAR.  WITH A LITTLE FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDING A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WELL INTO CANADA. AN EAST
COAST TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WHERE A RESIDUAL CLOSED-LOW CIRCULATION REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PARENT CLOSED-
LOW CENTERED OVER LABRADOR SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AS PERSISTENT
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH OR
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE RESIDUAL TROUGH...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE QUITE WEAK AND TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
BUT EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ANCHOR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE PATTERN FAVORS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESEMBLING
A COLD-AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. THE RESULTANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL VEER EASTERLY AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE THE PATTERN FAVORS UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE ABOVE PATTERN FAVORS CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL DROP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH INCREASED OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR CU SCATTERING OUT AND SHUD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON CHC OF RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HOWEVER...ANY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WLY TO
NWLY. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE VFR. EXPECT LOW VFR CU TO REDEVELOP WITH HEATING TUE. LIGHT
NELY WIND THIS EVENING BECOMES CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT NNE TUE.

ELSEWHERE...THE UPSTATE SITES WILL CLEAR OUT MORE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...STILL LITTLE CHC OF RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH KAND
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE MVFR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. LIGHT S TO
SW WIND BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT S TO SE TUE WITH FEW VFR
CU DEVELOPING. BKN CU AT HKY WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE EVENING...WITH
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. KAVL HAS THE BEST CHC OF FOG
WITH IFR LIKELY AND VLIFR POSSIBLE. SHUD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF BKN
VFR CU THERE. CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT CHC
TOO LOW FOR THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     LOW   29%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 312027
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...RADAR SHOWING RIDGE TOP SHRA TRYING TO DEVELOP. BEST
CU FIELDS ARE ALSO THERE. CURRENT FCST TREND OF WITH ISOLATED POP
LIMITED TO THOSE AREAS STILL LOOKS GOOD...BUT CHC OF ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IS DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...FCST ON TRACK WITH UPDATES
MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 230 PM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST THRU
THE NEAR TERM. AT THE SFC...A RATHER NEBULOUS PRES PATTERN EXISTS
ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK CENTER OF HIGH PRES
ROUGHLY ACRS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR JUST TO THE WEST. THIS SET
UP HAS TRAPPED SOME LLVL MOISTURE UNDER A STRENGTHENING MID LVL
INVERSION. THE FLOW IS SO WEAK HOWEVER...THAT THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION OR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OTHER THAN TERRAIN EFFECTS.
THERE IS STILL A SLGT CHC OF MAINLY SHWRS ACRS THE NC MTNS...BUT THE
REST OF THE AREA SHUD BE DRY THRU TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.

TUESDAY...WITH THE CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING...EXPECT THE MID LVLS TO
REMAIN WARM...AND PUT A LID OF MOST DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPS LOOK TO
REBOUND TO A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE DEWPTS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IF NOT A DEG OR TWO HIGHER. SO THERE SHUD BE A
LITTLE BETTER INSTBY...DESPITE UNFAVORABLE MID LVLS. I WILL FCST
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC AFTN SHWRS AND TSTMS ACRS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILL ZONES...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN
TRIGGER. THE PIEDMONT SHUD BE LARGELY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MEAN RIDGE WHICH WILL GIVE THE AREA TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.  A WELL-DEFINED SMALL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
INDIANA...WHICH IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...WILL PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THUNDER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...THROUGH THURSDAY.  DUE TO THE ISOLATION OF THE INDIANA
SHORTWAVE FROM THE MEAN FLOW...PREDICTIONS OF ITS MOVEMENT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT INACCURATE...HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE WAVE BEING SLIGHTLY ENTRAINED INTO WHAT
BECOMES BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MOVES THE LOBE ACROSS THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE BEST MODEL
INSTABILITY IN THE NAM AT AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AND HARDLY ANY
LOW-LEVEL WINDSHEAR.  WITH A LITTLE FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDING A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WELL INTO CANADA. AN EAST
COAST TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WHERE A RESIDUAL CLOSED-LOW CIRCULATION REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PARENT CLOSED-
LOW CENTERED OVER LABRADOR SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AS PERSISTENT
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH OR
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE RESIDUAL TROUGH...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE QUITE WEAK AND TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
BUT EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ANCHOR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE PATTERN FAVORS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESEMBLING
A COLD-AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. THE RESULTANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL VEER EASTERLY AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE THE PATTERN FAVORS UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE ABOVE PATTERN FAVORS CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL DROP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH INCREASED OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A STRATOCU DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACRS THE KCLT AREA...WITH
BASES GRADUALLY LIFTING ABOVE MVFR RANGE BY 18Z. THE FCST SNDGS SHOW
THE CLOUDS SETTLING AROUND 4000 FT BY MIDAFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...GUIDANCE DIVERGES...WITH SOME KEEPING POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS
AROUND THRU TONIGHT...WITH BASES LOWERING BACK TO MVFR. WHILE OTHERS
INDICATE MOST OF THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE WEAK
FLOW AND EXPECTED LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...I LEANED TOWARD LESS
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...STRATUS MAY DEVELOP IF
THERE IS ENUF FLOW/MOISTURE TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT. I KEPT A FEW020
AROUND 10Z TO SHOW THAT POSSIBILITY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS ALSO SOME FOG POTENTIAL TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...THE UPSTATE SITES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AT
TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE...WHILE MORE CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN OVER KAVL AND
KHKY (WITH BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT). TONIGHT...I EXPECT MOST OF
THE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. ENUF MOISTURE MAY EXIST FOR FOG AND STRATUS
POTENTIAL AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK...MAINLY AT KAVL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE MTNS...SO WHILE A FEW SHRA OR TSRA MAY
DEVELOP...I LEFT OUT ANY MENTION FROM THE KAVL TAF.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   60%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311939
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST THRU
THE NEAR TERM. AT THE SFC...A RATHER NEBULOUS PRES PATTERN EXISTS
ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK CENTER OF HIGH PRES
ROUGHLY ACRS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR JUST TO THE WEST. THIS SET
UP HAS TRAPPED SOME LLVL MOISTURE UNDER A STRENGTHENING MID LVL
INVERSION. THE FLOW IS SO WEAK HOWEVER...THAT THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION OR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OTHER THAN TERRAIN EFFECTS.
THERE IS STILL A SLGT CHC OF MAINLY SHWRS ACRS THE NC MTNS...BUT THE
REST OF THE AREA SHUD BE DRY THRU TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.

TUESDAY...WITH THE CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING...EXPECT THE MID LVLS TO
REMAIN WARM...AND PUT A LID OF MOST DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPS LOOK TO
REBOUND TO A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE DEWPTS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IF NOT A DEG OR TWO HIGHER. SO THERE SHUD BE A
LITTLE BETTER INSTBY...DESPITE UNFAVORABLE MID LVLS. I WILL FCST
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC AFTN SHWRS AND TSTMS ACRS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILL ZONES...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN
TRIGGER. THE PIEDMONT SHUD BE LARGELY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MEAN RIDGE WHICH WILL GIVE THE AREA TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.  A WELL-DEFINED SMALL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
INDIANA...WHICH IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...WILL PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THUNDER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...THROUGH THURSDAY.  DUE TO THE ISOLATION OF THE INDIANA
SHORTWAVE FROM THE MEAN FLOW...PREDICTIONS OF ITS MOVEMENT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT INACCURATE...HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE WAVE BEING SLIGHTLY ENTRAINED INTO WHAT
BECOMES BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MOVES THE LOBE ACROSS THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE BEST MODEL
INSTABILITY IN THE NAM AT AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AND HARDLY ANY
LOW-LEVEL WINDSHEAR.  WITH A LITTLE FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDING A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WELL INTO CANADA. AN EAST
COAST TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WHERE A RESIDUAL CLOSED-LOW CIRCULATION REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PARENT CLOSED-
LOW CENTERED OVER LABRADOR SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AS PERSISTENT
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH OR
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE RESIDUAL TROUGH...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE QUITE WEAK AND TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
BUT EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ANCHOR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE PATTERN FAVORS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESEMBLING
A COLD-AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. THE RESULTANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL VEER EASTERLY AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE THE PATTERN FAVORS UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE ABOVE PATTERN FAVORS CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL DROP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH INCREASED OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A STRATOCU DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACRS THE KCLT AREA...WITH
BASES GRADUALLY LIFTING ABOVE MVFR RANGE BY 18Z. THE FCST SNDGS SHOW
THE CLOUDS SETTLING AROUND 4000 FT BY MIDAFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...GUIDANCE DIVERGES...WITH SOME KEEPING POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS
AROUND THRU TONIGHT...WITH BASES LOWERING BACK TO MVFR. WHILE OTHERS
INDICATE MOST OF THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE WEAK
FLOW AND EXPECTED LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...I LEANED TOWARD LESS
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...STRATUS MAY DEVELOP IF
THERE IS ENUF FLOW/MOISTURE TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT. I KEPT A FEW020
AROUND 10Z TO SHOW THAT POSSIBILITY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS ALSO SOME FOG POTENTIAL TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...THE UPSTATE SITES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AT
TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE...WHILE MORE CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN OVER KAVL AND
KHKY (WITH BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT). TONIGHT...I EXPECT MOST OF
THE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. ENUF MOISTURE MAY EXIST FOR FOG AND STRATUS
POTENTIAL AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK...MAINLY AT KAVL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE MTNS...SO WHILE A FEW SHRA OR TSRA MAY
DEVELOP...I LEFT OUT ANY MENTION FROM THE KAVL TAF.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JMP/NED
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311939
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST THRU
THE NEAR TERM. AT THE SFC...A RATHER NEBULOUS PRES PATTERN EXISTS
ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK CENTER OF HIGH PRES
ROUGHLY ACRS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR JUST TO THE WEST. THIS SET
UP HAS TRAPPED SOME LLVL MOISTURE UNDER A STRENGTHENING MID LVL
INVERSION. THE FLOW IS SO WEAK HOWEVER...THAT THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION OR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OTHER THAN TERRAIN EFFECTS.
THERE IS STILL A SLGT CHC OF MAINLY SHWRS ACRS THE NC MTNS...BUT THE
REST OF THE AREA SHUD BE DRY THRU TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE MTNS.

TUESDAY...WITH THE CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING...EXPECT THE MID LVLS TO
REMAIN WARM...AND PUT A LID OF MOST DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPS LOOK TO
REBOUND TO A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE DEWPTS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IF NOT A DEG OR TWO HIGHER. SO THERE SHUD BE A
LITTLE BETTER INSTBY...DESPITE UNFAVORABLE MID LVLS. I WILL FCST
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC AFTN SHWRS AND TSTMS ACRS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILL ZONES...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN
TRIGGER. THE PIEDMONT SHUD BE LARGELY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EASTERN CONUS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MEAN RIDGE WHICH WILL GIVE THE AREA TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.  A WELL-DEFINED SMALL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
INDIANA...WHICH IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...WILL PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THUNDER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...THROUGH THURSDAY.  DUE TO THE ISOLATION OF THE INDIANA
SHORTWAVE FROM THE MEAN FLOW...PREDICTIONS OF ITS MOVEMENT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT INACCURATE...HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE WAVE BEING SLIGHTLY ENTRAINED INTO WHAT
BECOMES BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH MOVES THE LOBE ACROSS THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE BEST MODEL
INSTABILITY IN THE NAM AT AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AND HARDLY ANY
LOW-LEVEL WINDSHEAR.  WITH A LITTLE FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDING A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WELL INTO CANADA. AN EAST
COAST TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WHERE A RESIDUAL CLOSED-LOW CIRCULATION REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PARENT CLOSED-
LOW CENTERED OVER LABRADOR SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AS PERSISTENT
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH OR
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE RESIDUAL TROUGH...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE QUITE WEAK AND TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
BUT EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ANCHOR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE PATTERN FAVORS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESEMBLING
A COLD-AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. THE RESULTANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL VEER EASTERLY AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE THE PATTERN FAVORS UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE ABOVE PATTERN FAVORS CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL DROP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH INCREASED OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A STRATOCU DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACRS THE KCLT AREA...WITH
BASES GRADUALLY LIFTING ABOVE MVFR RANGE BY 18Z. THE FCST SNDGS SHOW
THE CLOUDS SETTLING AROUND 4000 FT BY MIDAFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...GUIDANCE DIVERGES...WITH SOME KEEPING POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS
AROUND THRU TONIGHT...WITH BASES LOWERING BACK TO MVFR. WHILE OTHERS
INDICATE MOST OF THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE WEAK
FLOW AND EXPECTED LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...I LEANED TOWARD LESS
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...STRATUS MAY DEVELOP IF
THERE IS ENUF FLOW/MOISTURE TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT. I KEPT A FEW020
AROUND 10Z TO SHOW THAT POSSIBILITY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS ALSO SOME FOG POTENTIAL TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...THE UPSTATE SITES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AT
TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE...WHILE MORE CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN OVER KAVL AND
KHKY (WITH BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT). TONIGHT...I EXPECT MOST OF
THE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. ENUF MOISTURE MAY EXIST FOR FOG AND STRATUS
POTENTIAL AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK...MAINLY AT KAVL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE MTNS...SO WHILE A FEW SHRA OR TSRA MAY
DEVELOP...I LEFT OUT ANY MENTION FROM THE KAVL TAF.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JMP/NED
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311749
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...I HAVE UPDATED THE SKY AND POP FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY TO MATCH UP WITH LATEST TRENDS ON VIS SAT IMAGERY. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MID LVL INVERSION MAY BE ENUF TO SUPPRESS DEEP
CONVECTION...EVEN IN THE SW NC MTNS. WHILE THE PIEDMONT LOOKS STABLE
AND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 1030 AM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING OUT THIS MORNING...AS
DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL ENUF LLVL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A DECENT FAIR WX CU DECK TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE WAS TO DECREASE SKY COVER...WHICH MAY CHANGE WORDING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY TODAY. AS FOR CONVECTION CHANCES THIS
AFTN...THE GUIDANCE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AGREE ON IT BEING
CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND MAINLY JUST ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHWRS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AS
THE 12Z FFC SOUNDING SHOWS A MID LVL INVERSION AROUND 550 MB...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION.

AS OF 700 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ALL THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING VORT LOBE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING...WITH RATHER
PERSISTENT STRATUS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL REGION. ANY ISOLD TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT SECONDARY MAXIMA POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE DEEPER COASTAL MOISTURE. PROFILES
DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABILITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH
NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S
EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN LINGERING WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 15
KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. I WILL
FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKDAYS...WITH A COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL
FORECAST SCHC TO CHC DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD
LEVELS...BUT DID ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A STRATOCU DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACRS THE KCLT AREA...WITH
BASES GRADUALLY LIFTING ABOVE MVFR RANGE BY 18Z. THE FCST SNDGS SHOW
THE CLOUDS SETTLING AROUND 4000 FT BY MIDAFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...GUIDANCE DIVERGES...WITH SOME KEEPING POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS
AROUND THRU TONIGHT...WITH BASES LOWERING BACK TO MVFR. WHILE OTHERS
INDICATE MOST OF THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE WEAK
FLOW AND EXPECTED LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...I LEANED TOWARD LESS
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...STRATUS MAY DEVELOP IF
THERE IS ENUF FLOW/MOISTURE TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT. I KEPT A FEW020
AROUND 10Z TO SHOW THAT POSSIBILITY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS ALSO SOME FOG POTENTIAL TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...THE UPSTATE SITES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AT
TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE...WHILE MORE CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN OVER KAVL AND
KHKY (WITH BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT). TONIGHT...I EXPECT MOST OF
THE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. ENUF MOISTURE MAY EXIST FOR FOG AND STRATUS
POTENTIAL AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK...MAINLY AT KAVL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE MTNS...SO WHILE A FEW SHRA OR TSRA MAY
DEVELOP...I LEFT OUT ANY MENTION FROM THE KAVL TAF.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311749
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...I HAVE UPDATED THE SKY AND POP FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY TO MATCH UP WITH LATEST TRENDS ON VIS SAT IMAGERY. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MID LVL INVERSION MAY BE ENUF TO SUPPRESS DEEP
CONVECTION...EVEN IN THE SW NC MTNS. WHILE THE PIEDMONT LOOKS STABLE
AND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 1030 AM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING OUT THIS MORNING...AS
DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL ENUF LLVL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A DECENT FAIR WX CU DECK TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE WAS TO DECREASE SKY COVER...WHICH MAY CHANGE WORDING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY TODAY. AS FOR CONVECTION CHANCES THIS
AFTN...THE GUIDANCE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AGREE ON IT BEING
CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND MAINLY JUST ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHWRS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AS
THE 12Z FFC SOUNDING SHOWS A MID LVL INVERSION AROUND 550 MB...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION.

AS OF 700 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ALL THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING VORT LOBE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING...WITH RATHER
PERSISTENT STRATUS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL REGION. ANY ISOLD TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT SECONDARY MAXIMA POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE DEEPER COASTAL MOISTURE. PROFILES
DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABILITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH
NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S
EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN LINGERING WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 15
KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. I WILL
FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKDAYS...WITH A COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL
FORECAST SCHC TO CHC DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD
LEVELS...BUT DID ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A STRATOCU DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACRS THE KCLT AREA...WITH
BASES GRADUALLY LIFTING ABOVE MVFR RANGE BY 18Z. THE FCST SNDGS SHOW
THE CLOUDS SETTLING AROUND 4000 FT BY MIDAFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...GUIDANCE DIVERGES...WITH SOME KEEPING POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS
AROUND THRU TONIGHT...WITH BASES LOWERING BACK TO MVFR. WHILE OTHERS
INDICATE MOST OF THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE WEAK
FLOW AND EXPECTED LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...I LEANED TOWARD LESS
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...STRATUS MAY DEVELOP IF
THERE IS ENUF FLOW/MOISTURE TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT. I KEPT A FEW020
AROUND 10Z TO SHOW THAT POSSIBILITY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS ALSO SOME FOG POTENTIAL TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...THE UPSTATE SITES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AT
TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE...WHILE MORE CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN OVER KAVL AND
KHKY (WITH BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT). TONIGHT...I EXPECT MOST OF
THE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. ENUF MOISTURE MAY EXIST FOR FOG AND STRATUS
POTENTIAL AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK...MAINLY AT KAVL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE MTNS...SO WHILE A FEW SHRA OR TSRA MAY
DEVELOP...I LEFT OUT ANY MENTION FROM THE KAVL TAF.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311749
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...I HAVE UPDATED THE SKY AND POP FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY TO MATCH UP WITH LATEST TRENDS ON VIS SAT IMAGERY. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MID LVL INVERSION MAY BE ENUF TO SUPPRESS DEEP
CONVECTION...EVEN IN THE SW NC MTNS. WHILE THE PIEDMONT LOOKS STABLE
AND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 1030 AM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING OUT THIS MORNING...AS
DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL ENUF LLVL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A DECENT FAIR WX CU DECK TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE WAS TO DECREASE SKY COVER...WHICH MAY CHANGE WORDING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY TODAY. AS FOR CONVECTION CHANCES THIS
AFTN...THE GUIDANCE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AGREE ON IT BEING
CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND MAINLY JUST ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHWRS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AS
THE 12Z FFC SOUNDING SHOWS A MID LVL INVERSION AROUND 550 MB...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION.

AS OF 700 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ALL THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING VORT LOBE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING...WITH RATHER
PERSISTENT STRATUS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL REGION. ANY ISOLD TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT SECONDARY MAXIMA POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE DEEPER COASTAL MOISTURE. PROFILES
DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABILITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH
NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S
EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN LINGERING WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 15
KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. I WILL
FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKDAYS...WITH A COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL
FORECAST SCHC TO CHC DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD
LEVELS...BUT DID ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A STRATOCU DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACRS THE KCLT AREA...WITH
BASES GRADUALLY LIFTING ABOVE MVFR RANGE BY 18Z. THE FCST SNDGS SHOW
THE CLOUDS SETTLING AROUND 4000 FT BY MIDAFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...GUIDANCE DIVERGES...WITH SOME KEEPING POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS
AROUND THRU TONIGHT...WITH BASES LOWERING BACK TO MVFR. WHILE OTHERS
INDICATE MOST OF THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE WEAK
FLOW AND EXPECTED LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...I LEANED TOWARD LESS
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...STRATUS MAY DEVELOP IF
THERE IS ENUF FLOW/MOISTURE TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT. I KEPT A FEW020
AROUND 10Z TO SHOW THAT POSSIBILITY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD...SO THERE IS ALSO SOME FOG POTENTIAL TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...THE UPSTATE SITES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AT
TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE...WHILE MORE CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN OVER KAVL AND
KHKY (WITH BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT). TONIGHT...I EXPECT MOST OF
THE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. ENUF MOISTURE MAY EXIST FOR FOG AND STRATUS
POTENTIAL AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK...MAINLY AT KAVL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE MTNS...SO WHILE A FEW SHRA OR TSRA MAY
DEVELOP...I LEFT OUT ANY MENTION FROM THE KAVL TAF.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311438
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1038 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING OUT THIS MORNING...AS
DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL ENUF LLVL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A DECENT FAIR WX CU DECK TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE WAS TO DECREASE SKY COVER...WHICH MAY CHANGE WORDING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY TODAY. AS FOR CONVECTION CHANCES THIS
AFTN...THE GUIDANCE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AGREE ON IT BEING
CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND MAINLY JUST ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHWRS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AS
THE 12Z FFC SOUNDING SHOWS A MID LVL INVERSION AROUND 550 MB...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION.

AS OF 700 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ALL THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING VORT LOBE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING...WITH RATHER
PERSISTENT STRATUS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL REGION. ANY ISOLD TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT SECONDARY MAXIMA POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE DEEPER COASTAL MOISTURE. PROFILES
DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABILITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH
NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S
EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN LINGERING WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 15
KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. I WILL
FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKDAYS...WITH A
COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL FORECAST SCHC TO CHC
DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD LEVELS...BUT DID
ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC
RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOWER STRATUS HAS FILLED IN AT MAINLY MVFR LEVELS...BUT
IFR CIGS ARE NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WILL FEATURE MVFR WITH
TEMPO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ONLY SLOW LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OF THE RESTRICTIONS THROUGH NOON. EXPECT LIGHT NE SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...MORNING STRATUS IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND THE LOWER PIEDMONT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRYING ALOFT THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS MAY BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH NOON IN AREAS
WHERE IT BECOMES ENTRENCHED. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KAVL.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311438
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1038 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING OUT THIS MORNING...AS
DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL ENUF LLVL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A DECENT FAIR WX CU DECK TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE WAS TO DECREASE SKY COVER...WHICH MAY CHANGE WORDING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY TODAY. AS FOR CONVECTION CHANCES THIS
AFTN...THE GUIDANCE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AGREE ON IT BEING
CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND MAINLY JUST ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHWRS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AS
THE 12Z FFC SOUNDING SHOWS A MID LVL INVERSION AROUND 550 MB...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION.

AS OF 700 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ALL THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING VORT LOBE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING...WITH RATHER
PERSISTENT STRATUS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL REGION. ANY ISOLD TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT SECONDARY MAXIMA POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE DEEPER COASTAL MOISTURE. PROFILES
DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABILITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH
NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S
EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN LINGERING WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 15
KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. I WILL
FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKDAYS...WITH A
COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL FORECAST SCHC TO CHC
DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD LEVELS...BUT DID
ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC
RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOWER STRATUS HAS FILLED IN AT MAINLY MVFR LEVELS...BUT
IFR CIGS ARE NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WILL FEATURE MVFR WITH
TEMPO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ONLY SLOW LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OF THE RESTRICTIONS THROUGH NOON. EXPECT LIGHT NE SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...MORNING STRATUS IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND THE LOWER PIEDMONT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRYING ALOFT THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS MAY BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH NOON IN AREAS
WHERE IT BECOMES ENTRENCHED. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KAVL.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311438
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1038 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING OUT THIS MORNING...AS
DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL ENUF LLVL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A DECENT FAIR WX CU DECK TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE WAS TO DECREASE SKY COVER...WHICH MAY CHANGE WORDING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY TODAY. AS FOR CONVECTION CHANCES THIS
AFTN...THE GUIDANCE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AGREE ON IT BEING
CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND MAINLY JUST ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHWRS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AS
THE 12Z FFC SOUNDING SHOWS A MID LVL INVERSION AROUND 550 MB...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION.

AS OF 700 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ALL THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING VORT LOBE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING...WITH RATHER
PERSISTENT STRATUS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL REGION. ANY ISOLD TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT SECONDARY MAXIMA POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE DEEPER COASTAL MOISTURE. PROFILES
DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABILITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH
NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S
EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN LINGERING WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 15
KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. I WILL
FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKDAYS...WITH A
COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL FORECAST SCHC TO CHC
DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD LEVELS...BUT DID
ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC
RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOWER STRATUS HAS FILLED IN AT MAINLY MVFR LEVELS...BUT
IFR CIGS ARE NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WILL FEATURE MVFR WITH
TEMPO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ONLY SLOW LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OF THE RESTRICTIONS THROUGH NOON. EXPECT LIGHT NE SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...MORNING STRATUS IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND THE LOWER PIEDMONT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRYING ALOFT THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS MAY BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH NOON IN AREAS
WHERE IT BECOMES ENTRENCHED. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KAVL.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311118
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
718 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ALL THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING VORT LOBE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING...WITH RATHER
PERSISTENT STRATUS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL REGION. ANY ISOLD TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT SECONDARY MAXIMA POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE DEEPER COASTAL MOISTURE. PROFILES
DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABLITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH
NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S
EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN LINGERING WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 15
KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. I WILL
FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKDAYS...WITH A
COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL FORECAST SCHC TO CHC
DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD LEVELS...BUT DID
ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC
RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOWER STRATUS HAS FILLED IN AT MAINLY MVFR LEVELS...BUT
IFR CIGS ARE NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WILL FEATURE MVFR WITH
TEMPO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ONLY SLOW LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OF THE RESTRICTIONS THROUGH NOON. EXPECT LIGHT NE SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...MORNING STRATUS IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND THE LOWER PIEDMONT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRYING ALOFT THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS MAY BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH NOON IN AREAS
WHERE IT BECOMES ENTRENCHED. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KAVL.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   75%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311118
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
718 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ALL THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING VORT LOBE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING...WITH RATHER
PERSISTENT STRATUS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL REGION. ANY ISOLD TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT SECONDARY MAXIMA POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE DEEPER COASTAL MOISTURE. PROFILES
DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABLITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH
NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S
EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN LINGERING WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 15
KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. I WILL
FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKDAYS...WITH A
COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL FORECAST SCHC TO CHC
DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD LEVELS...BUT DID
ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC
RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOWER STRATUS HAS FILLED IN AT MAINLY MVFR LEVELS...BUT
IFR CIGS ARE NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WILL FEATURE MVFR WITH
TEMPO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ONLY SLOW LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OF THE RESTRICTIONS THROUGH NOON. EXPECT LIGHT NE SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...MORNING STRATUS IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND THE LOWER PIEDMONT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRYING ALOFT THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS MAY BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH NOON IN AREAS
WHERE IT BECOMES ENTRENCHED. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KAVL.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   75%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311118
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
718 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ALL THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING VORT LOBE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING...WITH RATHER
PERSISTENT STRATUS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL REGION. ANY ISOLD TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT SECONDARY MAXIMA POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE DEEPER COASTAL MOISTURE. PROFILES
DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABLITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH
NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S
EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN LINGERING WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 15
KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. I WILL
FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKDAYS...WITH A
COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL FORECAST SCHC TO CHC
DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD LEVELS...BUT DID
ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC
RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOWER STRATUS HAS FILLED IN AT MAINLY MVFR LEVELS...BUT
IFR CIGS ARE NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WILL FEATURE MVFR WITH
TEMPO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ONLY SLOW LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OF THE RESTRICTIONS THROUGH NOON. EXPECT LIGHT NE SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...MORNING STRATUS IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND THE LOWER PIEDMONT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRYING ALOFT THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS MAY BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH NOON IN AREAS
WHERE IT BECOMES ENTRENCHED. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KAVL.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   75%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311118
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
718 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ALL THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING VORT LOBE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING...WITH RATHER
PERSISTENT STRATUS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL REGION. ANY ISOLD TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT SECONDARY MAXIMA POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE DEEPER COASTAL MOISTURE. PROFILES
DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABLITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH
NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S
EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN LINGERING WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 15
KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. I WILL
FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKDAYS...WITH A
COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL FORECAST SCHC TO CHC
DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD LEVELS...BUT DID
ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC
RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOWER STRATUS HAS FILLED IN AT MAINLY MVFR LEVELS...BUT
IFR CIGS ARE NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WILL FEATURE MVFR WITH
TEMPO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ONLY SLOW LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OF THE RESTRICTIONS THROUGH NOON. EXPECT LIGHT NE SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...MORNING STRATUS IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND THE LOWER PIEDMONT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRYING ALOFT THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS MAY BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH NOON IN AREAS
WHERE IT BECOMES ENTRENCHED. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KAVL.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   75%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311111
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
H PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ALL THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING VORT LOBE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING...WITH RATHER
PERSISTENT STRATUS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL REGION. ANY ISOLD TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT SECONDARY MAXIMA POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE DEEPER COASTAL MOISTURE. PROFILES
DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABLITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH
NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S
EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN LINGERING WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 15
KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. I WILL
FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKDAYS...WITH A
COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL FORECAST SCHC TO CHC
DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD LEVELS...BUT DID
ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC
RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOWER STRATUS HAS FILLED IN AT MAINLY MVFR LEVELS...BUT
IFR CIGS ARE NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WILL FEATURE MVFR WITH
TEMPO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ONLY SLOW LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OF THE RESTRICTIONS THROUGH NOON. EXPECT LIGHT NE SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...MORNING STRATUS IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND THE LOWER PIEDMONT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRYING ALOFT THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS MAY BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH NOON IN AREAS
WHERE IT BECOMES ENTRENCHED. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KAVL.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   75%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311111
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
H PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ALL THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING VORT LOBE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING...WITH RATHER
PERSISTENT STRATUS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL REGION. ANY ISOLD TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT SECONDARY MAXIMA POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE DEEPER COASTAL MOISTURE. PROFILES
DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABLITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH
NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S
EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN LINGERING WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 15
KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. I WILL
FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKDAYS...WITH A
COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL FORECAST SCHC TO CHC
DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD LEVELS...BUT DID
ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC
RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOWER STRATUS HAS FILLED IN AT MAINLY MVFR LEVELS...BUT
IFR CIGS ARE NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WILL FEATURE MVFR WITH
TEMPO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ONLY SLOW LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OF THE RESTRICTIONS THROUGH NOON. EXPECT LIGHT NE SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...MORNING STRATUS IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND THE LOWER PIEDMONT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRYING ALOFT THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS MAY BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH NOON IN AREAS
WHERE IT BECOMES ENTRENCHED. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KAVL.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   75%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311111
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
H PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ALL THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING VORT LOBE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING...WITH RATHER
PERSISTENT STRATUS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL REGION. ANY ISOLD TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT SECONDARY MAXIMA POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE DEEPER COASTAL MOISTURE. PROFILES
DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABLITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH
NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S
EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN LINGERING WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 15
KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. I WILL
FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKDAYS...WITH A
COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL FORECAST SCHC TO CHC
DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD LEVELS...BUT DID
ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC
RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOWER STRATUS HAS FILLED IN AT MAINLY MVFR LEVELS...BUT
IFR CIGS ARE NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WILL FEATURE MVFR WITH
TEMPO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ONLY SLOW LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OF THE RESTRICTIONS THROUGH NOON. EXPECT LIGHT NE SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...MORNING STRATUS IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND THE LOWER PIEDMONT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRYING ALOFT THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS MAY BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH NOON IN AREAS
WHERE IT BECOMES ENTRENCHED. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KAVL.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   75%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311111
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
H PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ALL THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING VORT LOBE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING...WITH RATHER
PERSISTENT STRATUS EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT SW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL REGION. ANY ISOLD TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT SECONDARY MAXIMA POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE DEEPER COASTAL MOISTURE. PROFILES
DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABLITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH
NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO UPPER 80S
EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN LINGERING WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE SFC TO 15
KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. I WILL
FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKDAYS...WITH A
COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL FORECAST SCHC TO CHC
DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD LEVELS...BUT DID
ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC
RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOWER STRATUS HAS FILLED IN AT MAINLY MVFR LEVELS...BUT
IFR CIGS ARE NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WILL FEATURE MVFR WITH
TEMPO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ONLY SLOW LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OF THE RESTRICTIONS THROUGH NOON. EXPECT LIGHT NE SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...MORNING STRATUS IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND THE LOWER PIEDMONT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRYING ALOFT THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS MAY BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH NOON IN AREAS
WHERE IT BECOMES ENTRENCHED. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KAVL.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   75%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 310716
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
H PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMA CROSSES THE REGION
FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...A MOISTURE PLUME ORIENTED MORE N/S OVER THE
ERN PIEDMONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING LONGER EAST OF
INTERSTATE 77...PERHAPS UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE...WITH RATHER PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL STRATUS
LIKELY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LITTLE TO NO UPPER
SUPPORT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LEAVING LIGHT SW FLOW OVER THE AREA BETWEEN A
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY
BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL
REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DEEPER LAYER FORCING...WEAK CONVECTION
WILL BE PREFERRED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMA IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABLITY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS
SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO
UPPER 80S EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS
THE REGION SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN
LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS
FROM THE SFC TO 15 KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED. I WILL FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKDAYS...WITH A COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL
FORECAST SCHC TO CHC DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD
LEVELS...BUT DID ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...PERSISTENT SHRA IN THE SRLY FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD WRAP UP MAINLY EAST OF THE AIRFIELD THROUGH DAYBREAK.
ANTICIPATE LOWER STRATUS FILLING IN IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ALONG WITH DRYING ALOFT FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE BY DAYBREAK. THE
RESULTING MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS COULD BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT
NE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
KAVL TO KHKY THROUGH 09Z BEFORE PULLING NORTH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRYING BEHIND THE PASSING UPPER WAVE WILL PROMOTE LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE
STRATUS MAY BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
LITTLE SCATTERING BEFORE NOON. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   66%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   76%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   70%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   70%     MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 310716
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
H PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMA CROSSES THE REGION
FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...A MOISTURE PLUME ORIENTED MORE N/S OVER THE
ERN PIEDMONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING LONGER EAST OF
INTERSTATE 77...PERHAPS UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE...WITH RATHER PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL STRATUS
LIKELY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LITTLE TO NO UPPER
SUPPORT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LEAVING LIGHT SW FLOW OVER THE AREA BETWEEN A
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY
BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL
REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DEEPER LAYER FORCING...WEAK CONVECTION
WILL BE PREFERRED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMA IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABLITY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS
SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO
UPPER 80S EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS
THE REGION SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN
LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS
FROM THE SFC TO 15 KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED. I WILL FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKDAYS...WITH A COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL
FORECAST SCHC TO CHC DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD
LEVELS...BUT DID ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...PERSISTENT SHRA IN THE SRLY FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD WRAP UP MAINLY EAST OF THE AIRFIELD THROUGH DAYBREAK.
ANTICIPATE LOWER STRATUS FILLING IN IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ALONG WITH DRYING ALOFT FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE BY DAYBREAK. THE
RESULTING MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS COULD BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT
NE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
KAVL TO KHKY THROUGH 09Z BEFORE PULLING NORTH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRYING BEHIND THE PASSING UPPER WAVE WILL PROMOTE LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE
STRATUS MAY BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
LITTLE SCATTERING BEFORE NOON. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   66%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   76%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   70%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   70%     MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 310716
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
H PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE APPALACHIAN
REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A COOL AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMA CROSSES THE REGION
FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...A MOISTURE PLUME ORIENTED MORE N/S OVER THE
ERN PIEDMONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING LONGER EAST OF
INTERSTATE 77...PERHAPS UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE...WITH RATHER PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL STRATUS
LIKELY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LITTLE TO NO UPPER
SUPPORT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LEAVING LIGHT SW FLOW OVER THE AREA BETWEEN A
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY
BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL
REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DEEPER LAYER FORCING...WEAK CONVECTION
WILL BE PREFERRED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMA IN THE ERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT MUCH INSTABLITY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN ONCE THE STRATUS
SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...ON TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DIRTY 592 DM RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LAYER OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR BETWEEN H8-H7...UNDER A WELL DEFINED
H65 INVERSION. I WILL FORECAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. USING A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO
UPPER 80S EAST...VIRTUALLY NEAR NORMALS. HOWEVER...CAPES ACROSS
THE REGION SHOULD PEAK NEAR VALUES OF 1000 J/KG...WITH CIN
LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROVIDED FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS
FROM THE SFC TO 15 KFT...STORM MOTIONS AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED. I WILL FORECAST DIURNAL CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WITH SCHC VALUES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CWA WILL FALL
WITHIN A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT...A S/W IS
EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL FORCING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2000 J/KG BY THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2 DEGREE ABOVE VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE FIELD OF INSTABILITY AND
PASSING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS...A BROKEN BAND OF
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE VA/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING SE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS...WITH SCHC EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE CENTER OF A 595 DM RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS...WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL PROVIDE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKDAYS...WITH A COOLING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. I WILL
FORECAST SCHC TO CHC DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE FAVORING THE MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
SFC PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE 0Z GFS...APPEARS TO
SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF CAD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT BROAD AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. I DID NOT WANT TO SINK HIGH TEMPS TO CAD
LEVELS...BUT DID ADJUST A LITTLE COOLER. IN ADDITION...I HAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...PERSISTENT SHRA IN THE SRLY FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD WRAP UP MAINLY EAST OF THE AIRFIELD THROUGH DAYBREAK.
ANTICIPATE LOWER STRATUS FILLING IN IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ALONG WITH DRYING ALOFT FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE BY DAYBREAK. THE
RESULTING MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS COULD BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT
NE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
KAVL TO KHKY THROUGH 09Z BEFORE PULLING NORTH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRYING BEHIND THE PASSING UPPER WAVE WILL PROMOTE LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE
STRATUS MAY BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
LITTLE SCATTERING BEFORE NOON. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   66%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   76%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   70%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   70%     MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 310547
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE OF VARYING DEGREES FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN NC EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSES OVER THE REGION FROM THE
SW. HOWEVER...A MOISTURE PLUME ORIENTED MORE N/S OVER THE ERN
PIEDMONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING LONGER EAST OF
INTERSTATE 77...PERHAPS UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE...WITH RATHER PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL STRATUS
LIKELY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LITTLE TO NO UPPER
SUPPORT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LEAVING LIGHT SW FLOW OVER THE AREA BETWEEN A
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY
BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL
REGIONS. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DEEPER LAYER FORCING...WEAK
CONVECTION WILL BE PREFERRED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMA IN THE ERN PIEDMONT
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT
MUCH INSTABLITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN
ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES ABOVE
CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. A WEAKNESS WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM BUT ANY INFLUENCE FROM IT SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FORT MAX DIVES SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE NOW PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES BUT
REMAINING BELOW 2 INCHES...AND FOR THE MOST PART BELOW 1.75 INCHES.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND SHOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WELL...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
HIGHS...TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TUESDAY JUST DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER VORT
MAX...BUT STILL ONLY CHANCES AT BEST /AND BEST CHANCES LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO
THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT DIVES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DO BUT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING PW VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND /HOVERING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT LEAST ON THE GFS/. 12Z
ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH BRING
DECENT QPF VALUES...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE WAVETRAIN SLIDES
EAST AND VERY VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS
MORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE APPALACHIAN SPINE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS AT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW JUST
BECAUSE WE ARE LOOKING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND QUITE A BIT COULD STILL
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...PERSISTENT SHRA IN THE SRLY FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD WRAP UP MAINLY EAST OF THE AIRFIELD THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH
JUST OCCASIONAL -SHRA NEAR THE AIRFIELD. ANTICIPATE LOWER STRATUS
FILLING IN IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH DRYING ALOFT FROM
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE BY DAYBREAK. THE RESULTING MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS
COULD BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SCATTERING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE LIGHT NE SURFACE WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
KAVL TO KHKY BEFORE PULLING NORTH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING BEHIND
THE PASSING UPPER WAVE WILL PROMOTE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE STRATUS MAY BE QUITE
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH LITTLE SCATTERING BEFORE
NOON. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK CONVECTION WILL BE TOO SPARSE
TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW
AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   65%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     LOW   29%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   75%     LOW   29%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       LOW   58%     MED   62%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     LOW   29%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     MED   69%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 310547
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE OF VARYING DEGREES FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN NC EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSES OVER THE REGION FROM THE
SW. HOWEVER...A MOISTURE PLUME ORIENTED MORE N/S OVER THE ERN
PIEDMONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING LONGER EAST OF
INTERSTATE 77...PERHAPS UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE...WITH RATHER PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL STRATUS
LIKELY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LITTLE TO NO UPPER
SUPPORT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LEAVING LIGHT SW FLOW OVER THE AREA BETWEEN A
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY
BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL
REGIONS. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DEEPER LAYER FORCING...WEAK
CONVECTION WILL BE PREFERRED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMA IN THE ERN PIEDMONT
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT
MUCH INSTABLITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN
ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES ABOVE
CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. A WEAKNESS WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM BUT ANY INFLUENCE FROM IT SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FORT MAX DIVES SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE NOW PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES BUT
REMAINING BELOW 2 INCHES...AND FOR THE MOST PART BELOW 1.75 INCHES.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND SHOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WELL...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
HIGHS...TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TUESDAY JUST DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER VORT
MAX...BUT STILL ONLY CHANCES AT BEST /AND BEST CHANCES LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO
THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT DIVES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DO BUT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING PW VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND /HOVERING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT LEAST ON THE GFS/. 12Z
ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH BRING
DECENT QPF VALUES...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE WAVETRAIN SLIDES
EAST AND VERY VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS
MORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE APPALACHIAN SPINE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS AT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW JUST
BECAUSE WE ARE LOOKING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND QUITE A BIT COULD STILL
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...PERSISTENT SHRA IN THE SRLY FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD WRAP UP MAINLY EAST OF THE AIRFIELD THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH
JUST OCCASIONAL -SHRA NEAR THE AIRFIELD. ANTICIPATE LOWER STRATUS
FILLING IN IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH DRYING ALOFT FROM
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE BY DAYBREAK. THE RESULTING MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS
COULD BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SCATTERING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE LIGHT NE SURFACE WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
KAVL TO KHKY BEFORE PULLING NORTH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING BEHIND
THE PASSING UPPER WAVE WILL PROMOTE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE STRATUS MAY BE QUITE
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH LITTLE SCATTERING BEFORE
NOON. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK CONVECTION WILL BE TOO SPARSE
TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW
AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   65%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     LOW   29%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   75%     LOW   29%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       LOW   58%     MED   62%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     LOW   29%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     MED   69%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 310547
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE OF VARYING DEGREES FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN NC EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSES OVER THE REGION FROM THE
SW. HOWEVER...A MOISTURE PLUME ORIENTED MORE N/S OVER THE ERN
PIEDMONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING LONGER EAST OF
INTERSTATE 77...PERHAPS UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE...WITH RATHER PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL STRATUS
LIKELY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LITTLE TO NO UPPER
SUPPORT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LEAVING LIGHT SW FLOW OVER THE AREA BETWEEN A
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY
BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL
REGIONS. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DEEPER LAYER FORCING...WEAK
CONVECTION WILL BE PREFERRED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMA IN THE ERN PIEDMONT
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT
MUCH INSTABLITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN
ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES ABOVE
CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. A WEAKNESS WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM BUT ANY INFLUENCE FROM IT SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FORT MAX DIVES SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE NOW PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES BUT
REMAINING BELOW 2 INCHES...AND FOR THE MOST PART BELOW 1.75 INCHES.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND SHOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WELL...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
HIGHS...TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TUESDAY JUST DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER VORT
MAX...BUT STILL ONLY CHANCES AT BEST /AND BEST CHANCES LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO
THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT DIVES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DO BUT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING PW VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND /HOVERING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT LEAST ON THE GFS/. 12Z
ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH BRING
DECENT QPF VALUES...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE WAVETRAIN SLIDES
EAST AND VERY VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS
MORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE APPALACHIAN SPINE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS AT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW JUST
BECAUSE WE ARE LOOKING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND QUITE A BIT COULD STILL
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...PERSISTENT SHRA IN THE SRLY FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD WRAP UP MAINLY EAST OF THE AIRFIELD THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH
JUST OCCASIONAL -SHRA NEAR THE AIRFIELD. ANTICIPATE LOWER STRATUS
FILLING IN IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH DRYING ALOFT FROM
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE BY DAYBREAK. THE RESULTING MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS
COULD BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SCATTERING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE LIGHT NE SURFACE WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
KAVL TO KHKY BEFORE PULLING NORTH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING BEHIND
THE PASSING UPPER WAVE WILL PROMOTE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE STRATUS MAY BE QUITE
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH LITTLE SCATTERING BEFORE
NOON. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK CONVECTION WILL BE TOO SPARSE
TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW
AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   65%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     LOW   29%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   75%     LOW   29%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       LOW   58%     MED   62%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     LOW   29%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     MED   69%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 310547
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE OF VARYING DEGREES FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN NC EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSES OVER THE REGION FROM THE
SW. HOWEVER...A MOISTURE PLUME ORIENTED MORE N/S OVER THE ERN
PIEDMONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING LONGER EAST OF
INTERSTATE 77...PERHAPS UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE...WITH RATHER PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL STRATUS
LIKELY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LITTLE TO NO UPPER
SUPPORT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...LEAVING LIGHT SW FLOW OVER THE AREA BETWEEN A
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND AN OFFSHORE ATLANTIC RIDGE. ANY
BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE COASTAL
REGIONS. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DEEPER LAYER FORCING...WEAK
CONVECTION WILL BE PREFERRED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMA IN THE ERN PIEDMONT
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...PROFILES DO NOT EXHIBIT
MUCH INSTABLITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT MAXES TO REACH NEAR CLIMO THIS AFTN
ONCE THE STRATUS SCATTERS...BUT WITH MINS 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES ABOVE
CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. A WEAKNESS WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM BUT ANY INFLUENCE FROM IT SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FORT MAX DIVES SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE NOW PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES BUT
REMAINING BELOW 2 INCHES...AND FOR THE MOST PART BELOW 1.75 INCHES.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND SHOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WELL...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
HIGHS...TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TUESDAY JUST DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER VORT
MAX...BUT STILL ONLY CHANCES AT BEST /AND BEST CHANCES LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO
THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT DIVES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DO BUT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING PW VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND /HOVERING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT LEAST ON THE GFS/. 12Z
ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH BRING
DECENT QPF VALUES...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE WAVETRAIN SLIDES
EAST AND VERY VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS
MORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE APPALACHIAN SPINE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS AT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW JUST
BECAUSE WE ARE LOOKING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND QUITE A BIT COULD STILL
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...PERSISTENT SHRA IN THE SRLY FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD WRAP UP MAINLY EAST OF THE AIRFIELD THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH
JUST OCCASIONAL -SHRA NEAR THE AIRFIELD. ANTICIPATE LOWER STRATUS
FILLING IN IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH DRYING ALOFT FROM
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE BY DAYBREAK. THE RESULTING MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS
COULD BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SCATTERING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE LIGHT NE SURFACE WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
KAVL TO KHKY BEFORE PULLING NORTH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING BEHIND
THE PASSING UPPER WAVE WILL PROMOTE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE STRATUS MAY BE QUITE
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH LITTLE SCATTERING BEFORE
NOON. ANY ISOLD TO SCT RIDGE TOP WEAK CONVECTION WILL BE TOO SPARSE
TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES YET. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT NE FLOW
AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...WITH WINDS BECOMING SE AT KAVL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A PLUME OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP UP ALONG THE SE COAST...GENERALLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...THROUGH THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PERIODS OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   65%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     LOW   29%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   75%     LOW   29%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       LOW   58%     MED   62%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     LOW   29%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     MED   69%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 310228
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1028 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE OF VARYING DEGREES FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO ONLY SLOWLY
MOVING EAST. THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE FINALLY PICKED
UP ON THIS TREND AND SHOW A SLOW EAST TO NE MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF
WIDESPREAD SHRA. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO SHOW THIS TREND...BUT KEEP
SOME SCT SHRA ACROSS THE WEST EARLY BEFORE DROPPING POP TO SLIGHT
CHC BEHIND THE CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP. THIS ALSO KEEPS CAT TO LIKELY
POP ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK BEFORE MOVING
EAST. FORTUNATELY...RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT HEAVY WHICH IS KEEPING
ANY FLOOD THREAT MINIMAL AT BEST. THE RESULT IS WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. DO NOT EXPECT ANY TSRA FOR THE REST OF THE
NITE. STILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. LOWS WERE GENERALLY ON TRACK...EVEN THOUGH
THE TEMP AND DEW POINT TRENDS WERE WAY OFF WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IN PLACE. LOWS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS THE TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS.

AS OF 750 PM...WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH DIVERGENCE WITH AN UPPER
JET STREAK...ARE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHRA TO MUCH OF THE CWFA THIS
EVENING. THE CONVEYOR BELT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP FCST
TO SHOW THESE TRENDS. THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
IS SLOWLY WANING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE KEPT ANY TSRA MENTION TO
ISOLATED THIS EVENING THEN JUST SHRA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FORMING OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS.
HAVE INCLUDED THIS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK...BUT
TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE PRECIP AND
CLOUDS.

AS OF 425 PM...UPDATED POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING COVERAGE
ACROSS THE WRN CWFA AND BRIEF LULL OVER THE ERN AREAS. LITTLE
INSTABILITY SEEN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS SOME THUNDER ALONG
THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED THUNDER
TO ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS
ARE RUNNING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EAST. HAVE
UPDATED TEMP TRENDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS WELL.

AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING A BROAD
REGION OF GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER NORTHEAST GA AND
THE CAROLINAS.  MID ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE...HOWEVER ACCORDING TO
GUIDANCE...SHOULD DO JUST THAT.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SAID SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER
SYNOPTIC SCALE Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING OVERHEAD.  THUS...THE
FCST FEATURES CLOUDY SKIES WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH...TAPERING
TO CHANCE POPS FURTHEST NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.  POPS WILL GRADUALLY
ROTATE AS SAID SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TIED TO THE UPPER VORTEX SLIDES
THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT REGION TONIGHT THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE
FAVORED OVER BOTH THE NC/SC PIEDMONTS THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING
OVERNIGHT.  PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BURNING OFF AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.  THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA WILL PROVIDE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER CLOSER TO
HOME ON MONDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS.
NEVERTHELESS...MODELS DO FAVOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON MONDAY TO
WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE
MTNS BEING THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR CONVECTION.  THAT SAID...POOR
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF SAID CONVECTION THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. A WEAKNESS WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM BUT ANY INFLUENCE FROM IT SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FORT MAX DIVES SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE NOW PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES BUT
REMAINING BELOW 2 INCHES...AND FOR THE MOST PART BELOW 1.75 INCHES.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND SHOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WELL...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
HIGHS...TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TUESDAY JUST DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER VORT
MAX...BUT STILL ONLY CHANCES AT BEST /AND BEST CHANCES LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO
THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT DIVES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DO BUT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING PW VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND /HOVERING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT LEAST ON THE GFS/. 12Z
ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH BRING
DECENT QPF VALUES...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE WAVETRAIN SLIDES
EAST AND VERY VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS
MORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE APPALACHIAN SPINE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS AT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW JUST
BECAUSE WE ARE LOOKING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND QUITE A BIT COULD STILL
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN AREA OF SHRA WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AIRFIELD THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY LOW VFR CIGS.
HAVE INCLUDED AS A TEMPO GIVEN THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
RATES. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR SHRA AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW CIGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR THEN IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK IN MVFR FOG.
COULD SEE THICKER FOG AS WELL...BUT CIGS SEEM MORE CERTAIN. THE CIGS
SLOWLY LIFT THRU MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK TO LOW VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE SHOWS SCT TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR THAT TIME. SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME ENE
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THRU THE DAY MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT...EXCEPT THAT RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA WILL
END SOONER. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBY AS WELL. KAVL
WILL SEE IFR VSBY AND CIGS WITH VLIFR LIKELY TOWARD MORNING.
RESTRICTIONS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU MVFR TO VFR THRU THE MORNING
MONDAY. CONVECTION MORE LIKELY AT KHKY FOR THE AFTERNOON...SO PROB30
ONLY INCLUDED THERE. WINDS WILL SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS...EXCEPT KAVL
WHERE SLY WIND BECOMES CALM THEN NLY.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  84%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  87%     LOW   55%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     LOW   54%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     LOW   52%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  86%     MED   64%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  90%     LOW   57%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...CDG/RWH
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 302350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE OF VARYING DEGREES FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM...WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH DIVERGENCE WITH AN UPPER
JET STREAK...ARE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHRA TO MUCH OF THE CWFA THIS
EVENING. THE CONVEYOR BELT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP FCST
TO SHOW THESE TRENDS. THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
IS SLOWLY WANING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE KEPT ANY TSRA MENTION TO
ISOLATED THIS EVENING THEN JUST SHRA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FORMING OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS.
HAVE INCLUDED THIS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK...BUT
TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE PRECIP AND
CLOUDS.

AS OF 425 PM...UPDATED POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING COVERAGE
ACROSS THE WRN CWFA AND BRIEF LULL OVER THE ERN AREAS. LITTLE
INSTABILITY SEEN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS SOME THUNDER ALONG
THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED THUNDER
TO ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS
ARE RUNNING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EAST. HAVE
UPDATED TEMP TRENDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS WELL.

AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING A BROAD
REGION OF GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER NORTHEAST GA AND
THE CAROLINAS.  MID ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE...HOWEVER ACCORDING TO
GUIDANCE...SHOULD DO JUST THAT.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SAID SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER
SYNOPTIC SCALE Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING OVERHEAD.  THUS...THE
FCST FEATURES CLOUDY SKIES WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH...TAPERING
TO CHANCE POPS FURTHEST NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.  POPS WILL GRADUALLY
ROTATE AS SAID SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TIED TO THE UPPER VORTEX SLIDES
THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT REGION TONIGHT THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE
FAVORED OVER BOTH THE NC/SC PIEDMONTS THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING
OVERNIGHT.  PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BURNING OFF AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.  THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA WILL PROVIDE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER CLOSER TO
HOME ON MONDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS.
NEVERTHELESS...MODELS DO FAVOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON MONDAY TO
WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE
MTNS BEING THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR CONVECTION.  THAT SAID...POOR
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF SAID CONVECTION THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. A WEAKNESS WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM BUT ANY INFLUENCE FROM IT SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FORT MAX DIVES SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE NOW PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES BUT
REMAINING BELOW 2 INCHES...AND FOR THE MOST PART BELOW 1.75 INCHES.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND SHOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WELL...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
HIGHS...TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TUESDAY JUST DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER VORT
MAX...BUT STILL ONLY CHANCES AT BEST /AND BEST CHANCES LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO
THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT DIVES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DO BUT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING PW VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND /HOVERING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT LEAST ON THE GFS/. 12Z
ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH BRING
DECENT QPF VALUES...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE WAVETRAIN SLIDES
EAST AND VERY VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS
MORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE APPALACHIAN SPINE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS AT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW JUST
BECAUSE WE ARE LOOKING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND QUITE A BIT COULD STILL
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN AREA OF SHRA WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AIRFIELD THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY LOW VFR CIGS.
HAVE INCLUDED AS A TEMPO GIVEN THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
RATES. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR SHRA AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW CIGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR THEN IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK IN MVFR FOG.
COULD SEE THICKER FOG AS WELL...BUT CIGS SEEM MORE CERTAIN. THE CIGS
SLOWLY LIFT THRU MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK TO LOW VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE SHOWS SCT TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR THAT TIME. SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME ENE
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THRU THE DAY MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT...EXCEPT THAT RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA WILL
END SOONER. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBY AS WELL. KAVL
WILL SEE IFR VSBY AND CIGS WITH VLIFR LIKELY TOWARD MORNING.
RESTRICTIONS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU MVFR TO VFR THRU THE MORNING
MONDAY. CONVECTION MORE LIKELY AT KHKY FOR THE AFTERNOON...SO PROB30
ONLY INCLUDED THERE. WINDS WILL SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS...EXCEPT KAVL
WHERE SLY WIND BECOMES CALM THEN NLY.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   29%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     LOW   52%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   62%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH  83%     MED   69%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...CDG/RWH
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 302350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE OF VARYING DEGREES FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM...WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH DIVERGENCE WITH AN UPPER
JET STREAK...ARE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHRA TO MUCH OF THE CWFA THIS
EVENING. THE CONVEYOR BELT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP FCST
TO SHOW THESE TRENDS. THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
IS SLOWLY WANING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE KEPT ANY TSRA MENTION TO
ISOLATED THIS EVENING THEN JUST SHRA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FORMING OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS.
HAVE INCLUDED THIS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK...BUT
TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE PRECIP AND
CLOUDS.

AS OF 425 PM...UPDATED POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING COVERAGE
ACROSS THE WRN CWFA AND BRIEF LULL OVER THE ERN AREAS. LITTLE
INSTABILITY SEEN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS SOME THUNDER ALONG
THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED THUNDER
TO ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS
ARE RUNNING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EAST. HAVE
UPDATED TEMP TRENDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS WELL.

AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING A BROAD
REGION OF GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER NORTHEAST GA AND
THE CAROLINAS.  MID ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE...HOWEVER ACCORDING TO
GUIDANCE...SHOULD DO JUST THAT.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SAID SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER
SYNOPTIC SCALE Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING OVERHEAD.  THUS...THE
FCST FEATURES CLOUDY SKIES WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH...TAPERING
TO CHANCE POPS FURTHEST NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.  POPS WILL GRADUALLY
ROTATE AS SAID SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TIED TO THE UPPER VORTEX SLIDES
THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT REGION TONIGHT THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE
FAVORED OVER BOTH THE NC/SC PIEDMONTS THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING
OVERNIGHT.  PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BURNING OFF AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.  THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA WILL PROVIDE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER CLOSER TO
HOME ON MONDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS.
NEVERTHELESS...MODELS DO FAVOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON MONDAY TO
WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE
MTNS BEING THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR CONVECTION.  THAT SAID...POOR
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF SAID CONVECTION THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. A WEAKNESS WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM BUT ANY INFLUENCE FROM IT SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FORT MAX DIVES SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE NOW PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES BUT
REMAINING BELOW 2 INCHES...AND FOR THE MOST PART BELOW 1.75 INCHES.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND SHOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WELL...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
HIGHS...TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TUESDAY JUST DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER VORT
MAX...BUT STILL ONLY CHANCES AT BEST /AND BEST CHANCES LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO
THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT DIVES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DO BUT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING PW VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND /HOVERING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT LEAST ON THE GFS/. 12Z
ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH BRING
DECENT QPF VALUES...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE WAVETRAIN SLIDES
EAST AND VERY VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS
MORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE APPALACHIAN SPINE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS AT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW JUST
BECAUSE WE ARE LOOKING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND QUITE A BIT COULD STILL
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN AREA OF SHRA WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AIRFIELD THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY LOW VFR CIGS.
HAVE INCLUDED AS A TEMPO GIVEN THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
RATES. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR SHRA AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW CIGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR THEN IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK IN MVFR FOG.
COULD SEE THICKER FOG AS WELL...BUT CIGS SEEM MORE CERTAIN. THE CIGS
SLOWLY LIFT THRU MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK TO LOW VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE SHOWS SCT TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR THAT TIME. SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME ENE
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THRU THE DAY MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT...EXCEPT THAT RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA WILL
END SOONER. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBY AS WELL. KAVL
WILL SEE IFR VSBY AND CIGS WITH VLIFR LIKELY TOWARD MORNING.
RESTRICTIONS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU MVFR TO VFR THRU THE MORNING
MONDAY. CONVECTION MORE LIKELY AT KHKY FOR THE AFTERNOON...SO PROB30
ONLY INCLUDED THERE. WINDS WILL SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS...EXCEPT KAVL
WHERE SLY WIND BECOMES CALM THEN NLY.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   29%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     LOW   52%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   62%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH  83%     MED   69%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...CDG/RWH
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 302350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE OF VARYING DEGREES FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM...WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH DIVERGENCE WITH AN UPPER
JET STREAK...ARE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHRA TO MUCH OF THE CWFA THIS
EVENING. THE CONVEYOR BELT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP FCST
TO SHOW THESE TRENDS. THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
IS SLOWLY WANING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE KEPT ANY TSRA MENTION TO
ISOLATED THIS EVENING THEN JUST SHRA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FORMING OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS.
HAVE INCLUDED THIS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK...BUT
TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE PRECIP AND
CLOUDS.

AS OF 425 PM...UPDATED POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING COVERAGE
ACROSS THE WRN CWFA AND BRIEF LULL OVER THE ERN AREAS. LITTLE
INSTABILITY SEEN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS SOME THUNDER ALONG
THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED THUNDER
TO ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS
ARE RUNNING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EAST. HAVE
UPDATED TEMP TRENDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS WELL.

AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING A BROAD
REGION OF GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER NORTHEAST GA AND
THE CAROLINAS.  MID ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE...HOWEVER ACCORDING TO
GUIDANCE...SHOULD DO JUST THAT.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SAID SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER
SYNOPTIC SCALE Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING OVERHEAD.  THUS...THE
FCST FEATURES CLOUDY SKIES WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH...TAPERING
TO CHANCE POPS FURTHEST NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.  POPS WILL GRADUALLY
ROTATE AS SAID SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TIED TO THE UPPER VORTEX SLIDES
THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT REGION TONIGHT THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE
FAVORED OVER BOTH THE NC/SC PIEDMONTS THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING
OVERNIGHT.  PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BURNING OFF AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.  THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA WILL PROVIDE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER CLOSER TO
HOME ON MONDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS.
NEVERTHELESS...MODELS DO FAVOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON MONDAY TO
WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE
MTNS BEING THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR CONVECTION.  THAT SAID...POOR
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF SAID CONVECTION THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. A WEAKNESS WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM BUT ANY INFLUENCE FROM IT SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FORT MAX DIVES SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE NOW PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES BUT
REMAINING BELOW 2 INCHES...AND FOR THE MOST PART BELOW 1.75 INCHES.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND SHOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WELL...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
HIGHS...TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TUESDAY JUST DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER VORT
MAX...BUT STILL ONLY CHANCES AT BEST /AND BEST CHANCES LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO
THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT DIVES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DO BUT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING PW VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND /HOVERING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT LEAST ON THE GFS/. 12Z
ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH BRING
DECENT QPF VALUES...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE WAVETRAIN SLIDES
EAST AND VERY VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS
MORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE APPALACHIAN SPINE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS AT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW JUST
BECAUSE WE ARE LOOKING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND QUITE A BIT COULD STILL
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN AREA OF SHRA WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AIRFIELD THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY LOW VFR CIGS.
HAVE INCLUDED AS A TEMPO GIVEN THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
RATES. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR SHRA AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW CIGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR THEN IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK IN MVFR FOG.
COULD SEE THICKER FOG AS WELL...BUT CIGS SEEM MORE CERTAIN. THE CIGS
SLOWLY LIFT THRU MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK TO LOW VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE SHOWS SCT TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR THAT TIME. SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME ENE
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THRU THE DAY MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT...EXCEPT THAT RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA WILL
END SOONER. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBY AS WELL. KAVL
WILL SEE IFR VSBY AND CIGS WITH VLIFR LIKELY TOWARD MORNING.
RESTRICTIONS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU MVFR TO VFR THRU THE MORNING
MONDAY. CONVECTION MORE LIKELY AT KHKY FOR THE AFTERNOON...SO PROB30
ONLY INCLUDED THERE. WINDS WILL SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS...EXCEPT KAVL
WHERE SLY WIND BECOMES CALM THEN NLY.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   29%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     LOW   52%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   62%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH  83%     MED   69%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...CDG/RWH
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...RWH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 302350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE OF VARYING DEGREES FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM...WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH DIVERGENCE WITH AN UPPER
JET STREAK...ARE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHRA TO MUCH OF THE CWFA THIS
EVENING. THE CONVEYOR BELT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP FCST
TO SHOW THESE TRENDS. THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
IS SLOWLY WANING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE KEPT ANY TSRA MENTION TO
ISOLATED THIS EVENING THEN JUST SHRA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FORMING OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS.
HAVE INCLUDED THIS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK...BUT
TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE PRECIP AND
CLOUDS.

AS OF 425 PM...UPDATED POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING COVERAGE
ACROSS THE WRN CWFA AND BRIEF LULL OVER THE ERN AREAS. LITTLE
INSTABILITY SEEN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS SOME THUNDER ALONG
THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED THUNDER
TO ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS
ARE RUNNING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EAST. HAVE
UPDATED TEMP TRENDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS WELL.

AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING A BROAD
REGION OF GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER NORTHEAST GA AND
THE CAROLINAS.  MID ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE...HOWEVER ACCORDING TO
GUIDANCE...SHOULD DO JUST THAT.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SAID SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER
SYNOPTIC SCALE Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING OVERHEAD.  THUS...THE
FCST FEATURES CLOUDY SKIES WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH...TAPERING
TO CHANCE POPS FURTHEST NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.  POPS WILL GRADUALLY
ROTATE AS SAID SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TIED TO THE UPPER VORTEX SLIDES
THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT REGION TONIGHT THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE
FAVORED OVER BOTH THE NC/SC PIEDMONTS THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING
OVERNIGHT.  PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BURNING OFF AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.  THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA WILL PROVIDE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER CLOSER TO
HOME ON MONDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS.
NEVERTHELESS...MODELS DO FAVOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON MONDAY TO
WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE
MTNS BEING THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR CONVECTION.  THAT SAID...POOR
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF SAID CONVECTION THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. A WEAKNESS WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM BUT ANY INFLUENCE FROM IT SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FORT MAX DIVES SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE NOW PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES BUT
REMAINING BELOW 2 INCHES...AND FOR THE MOST PART BELOW 1.75 INCHES.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND SHOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WELL...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
HIGHS...TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TUESDAY JUST DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER VORT
MAX...BUT STILL ONLY CHANCES AT BEST /AND BEST CHANCES LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO
THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT DIVES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DO BUT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING PW VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND /HOVERING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT LEAST ON THE GFS/. 12Z
ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH BRING
DECENT QPF VALUES...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE WAVETRAIN SLIDES
EAST AND VERY VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS
MORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE APPALACHIAN SPINE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS AT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW JUST
BECAUSE WE ARE LOOKING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND QUITE A BIT COULD STILL
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN AREA OF SHRA WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AIRFIELD THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY LOW VFR CIGS.
HAVE INCLUDED AS A TEMPO GIVEN THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
RATES. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR SHRA AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW CIGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR THEN IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK IN MVFR FOG.
COULD SEE THICKER FOG AS WELL...BUT CIGS SEEM MORE CERTAIN. THE CIGS
SLOWLY LIFT THRU MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK TO LOW VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE SHOWS SCT TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR THAT TIME. SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME ENE
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THRU THE DAY MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT...EXCEPT THAT RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA WILL
END SOONER. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBY AS WELL. KAVL
WILL SEE IFR VSBY AND CIGS WITH VLIFR LIKELY TOWARD MORNING.
RESTRICTIONS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU MVFR TO VFR THRU THE MORNING
MONDAY. CONVECTION MORE LIKELY AT KHKY FOR THE AFTERNOON...SO PROB30
ONLY INCLUDED THERE. WINDS WILL SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS...EXCEPT KAVL
WHERE SLY WIND BECOMES CALM THEN NLY.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   29%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     LOW   52%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   62%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH  83%     MED   69%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...CDG/RWH
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 302025
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
425 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE OF VARYING DEGREES FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...UPDATED POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING COVERAGE
ACROSS THE WRN CWFA AND BRIEF LULL OVER THE ERN AREAS. LITTLE
INSTABILITY SEEN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS SOME THUNDER ALONG
THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED THUNDER
TO ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS
ARE RUNNING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EAST. HAVE
UPDATED TEMP TRENDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS WELL.

AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING A BROAD
REGION OF GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER NORTHEAST GA AND
THE CAROLINAS.  MID ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE...HOWEVER ACCORDING TO
GUIDANCE...SHOULD DO JUST THAT.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SAID SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER
SYNOPTIC SCALE Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING OVERHEAD.  THUS...THE
FCST FEATURES CLOUDY SKIES WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH...TAPERING
TO CHANCE POPS FURTHEST NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.  POPS WILL GRADUALLY
ROTATE AS SAID SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TIED TO THE UPPER VORTEX SLIDES
THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT REGION TONIGHT THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE
FAVORED OVER BOTH THE NC/SC PIEDMONTS THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING
OVERNIGHT.  PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BURNING OFF AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.  THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA WILL PROVIDE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER CLOSER TO
HOME ON MONDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS.
NEVERTHELESS...MODELS DO FAVOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON MONDAY TO
WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE
MTNS BEING THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR CONVECTION.  THAT SAID...POOR
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF SAID CONVECTION THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. A WEAKNESS WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM BUT ANY INFLUENCE FROM IT SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FORT MAX DIVES SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE NOW PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES BUT
REMAINING BELOW 2 INCHES...AND FOR THE MOST PART BELOW 1.75 INCHES.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND SHOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WELL...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
HIGHS...TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TUESDAY JUST DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER VORT
MAX...BUT STILL ONLY CHANCES AT BEST /AND BEST CHANCES LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO
THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT DIVES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DO BUT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING PW VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND /HOVERING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT LEAST ON THE GFS/. 12Z
ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH BRING
DECENT QPF VALUES...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE WAVETRAIN SLIDES
EAST AND VERY VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS
MORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE APPALACHIAN SPINE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS AT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW JUST
BECAUSE WE ARE LOOKING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND QUITE A BIT COULD STILL
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE AS GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD
BY WAY OF NORTHWARD MIGRATING MID/UPPER LOW.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR
WITH VCSH MENTION AS LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ON RADAR WITH A 4HR TEMPO STARTING AT 20Z FOR LIGHT SHRA.
SHRA WILL PREVAIL FROM 00Z-03Z WHEN NAM/HRRR AGREE ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NC PIEDMONT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLY
YIELDING MVFR VISB.  CIGS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL START
OUT AT MID LEVELS...GRADUALLY LOWERING LOW VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
FROM THAT POINT GUIDANCE FAVORS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AMONGST
THE MOIST PBL WITH MVFR CIGS FAVORED BY 03Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN AWAY FROM
IFR...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE ANY
MENTION THUS KEPT SCT008 IN TAF.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO LOW VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.  WINDS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
WILL INITIALIZE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH TAF FEATURES SE WINDS.
THESE LIGHT SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE...LASTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD PERHAPS CALMING OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH SITES OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS EXPERIENCING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON EVENING DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE MIGRATING MID/UPPER
LOW AND ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TIED TO IT.  THUS...ALL SC
SITES FEATURE PREVAILING SHRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH KHKY HAVING A
TEMPO INCLUDED FOR SUCH.  TAF REMAINS DRY REGARDING ANY PREVAILING
PRECIP AT KAVL THEREFORE OPTED FOR VCSH ONLY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN THE MTNS THIS
EVENING AS THE PBL CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND WINDS CALM.  THUS KAVL
TAF FEATURES MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH EVEN AN LIFR VISB AROUND DAYBREAK.
GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORED IFR/LIFR AT THE SC SITES...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF CIGS THEREFORE THOSE WERE ALSO INCLUDED.  LOOKS AS IF KHKY
WILL SEE THE LEAST IMPACT OVERNIGHT HOWEVER STILL COULD EXPERIENCE
MVFR CIGS/VISB BY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...ALL TAFS ARE DRY BY MID
EARLY/MORNING WITH ALL CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...CALM OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     LOW   56%     HIGH  85%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     MED   69%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   79%     HIGH  81%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     MED   66%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH  83%     LOW   58%     HIGH  85%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...CDG/RWH
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 302025
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
425 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE OF VARYING DEGREES FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...UPDATED POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING COVERAGE
ACROSS THE WRN CWFA AND BRIEF LULL OVER THE ERN AREAS. LITTLE
INSTABILITY SEEN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS SOME THUNDER ALONG
THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED THUNDER
TO ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS
ARE RUNNING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EAST. HAVE
UPDATED TEMP TRENDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS WELL.

AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING A BROAD
REGION OF GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER NORTHEAST GA AND
THE CAROLINAS.  MID ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE...HOWEVER ACCORDING TO
GUIDANCE...SHOULD DO JUST THAT.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SAID SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER
SYNOPTIC SCALE Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING OVERHEAD.  THUS...THE
FCST FEATURES CLOUDY SKIES WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH...TAPERING
TO CHANCE POPS FURTHEST NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.  POPS WILL GRADUALLY
ROTATE AS SAID SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TIED TO THE UPPER VORTEX SLIDES
THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT REGION TONIGHT THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE
FAVORED OVER BOTH THE NC/SC PIEDMONTS THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING
OVERNIGHT.  PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BURNING OFF AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.  THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA WILL PROVIDE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER CLOSER TO
HOME ON MONDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS.
NEVERTHELESS...MODELS DO FAVOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON MONDAY TO
WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE
MTNS BEING THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR CONVECTION.  THAT SAID...POOR
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF SAID CONVECTION THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. A WEAKNESS WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM BUT ANY INFLUENCE FROM IT SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FORT MAX DIVES SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE NOW PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES BUT
REMAINING BELOW 2 INCHES...AND FOR THE MOST PART BELOW 1.75 INCHES.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND SHOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WELL...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
HIGHS...TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TUESDAY JUST DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER VORT
MAX...BUT STILL ONLY CHANCES AT BEST /AND BEST CHANCES LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO
THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT DIVES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DO BUT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING PW VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND /HOVERING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT LEAST ON THE GFS/. 12Z
ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH BRING
DECENT QPF VALUES...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE WAVETRAIN SLIDES
EAST AND VERY VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS
MORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE APPALACHIAN SPINE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS AT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW JUST
BECAUSE WE ARE LOOKING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND QUITE A BIT COULD STILL
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE AS GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD
BY WAY OF NORTHWARD MIGRATING MID/UPPER LOW.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR
WITH VCSH MENTION AS LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ON RADAR WITH A 4HR TEMPO STARTING AT 20Z FOR LIGHT SHRA.
SHRA WILL PREVAIL FROM 00Z-03Z WHEN NAM/HRRR AGREE ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NC PIEDMONT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLY
YIELDING MVFR VISB.  CIGS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL START
OUT AT MID LEVELS...GRADUALLY LOWERING LOW VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
FROM THAT POINT GUIDANCE FAVORS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AMONGST
THE MOIST PBL WITH MVFR CIGS FAVORED BY 03Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN AWAY FROM
IFR...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE ANY
MENTION THUS KEPT SCT008 IN TAF.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO LOW VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.  WINDS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
WILL INITIALIZE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH TAF FEATURES SE WINDS.
THESE LIGHT SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE...LASTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD PERHAPS CALMING OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH SITES OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS EXPERIENCING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON EVENING DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE MIGRATING MID/UPPER
LOW AND ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TIED TO IT.  THUS...ALL SC
SITES FEATURE PREVAILING SHRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH KHKY HAVING A
TEMPO INCLUDED FOR SUCH.  TAF REMAINS DRY REGARDING ANY PREVAILING
PRECIP AT KAVL THEREFORE OPTED FOR VCSH ONLY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN THE MTNS THIS
EVENING AS THE PBL CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND WINDS CALM.  THUS KAVL
TAF FEATURES MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH EVEN AN LIFR VISB AROUND DAYBREAK.
GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORED IFR/LIFR AT THE SC SITES...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF CIGS THEREFORE THOSE WERE ALSO INCLUDED.  LOOKS AS IF KHKY
WILL SEE THE LEAST IMPACT OVERNIGHT HOWEVER STILL COULD EXPERIENCE
MVFR CIGS/VISB BY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...ALL TAFS ARE DRY BY MID
EARLY/MORNING WITH ALL CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...CALM OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     LOW   56%     HIGH  85%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     MED   69%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   79%     HIGH  81%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     MED   66%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH  83%     LOW   58%     HIGH  85%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...CDG/RWH
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 301853
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
253 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE OF VARYING DEGREES FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING A BROAD
REGION OF GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER NORTHEAST GA AND
THE CAROLINAS.  MID ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE...HOWEVER ACCORDING TO
GUIDANCE...SHOULD DO JUST THAT.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SAID SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER
SYNOPTIC SCALE Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING OVERHEAD.  THUS...THE
FCST FEATURES CLOUDY SKIES WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH...TAPERING
TO CHANCE POPS FURTHEST NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.  POPS WILL GRADUALLY
ROTATE AS SAID SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TIED TO THE UPPER VORTEX SLIDES
THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT REGION TONIGHT THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE
FAVORED OVER BOTH THE NC/SC PIEDMONTS THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING
OVERNIGHT.  PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BURNING OFF AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.  THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA WILL PROVIDE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER CLOSER TO
HOME ON MONDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS.
NEVERTHELESS...MODELS DO FAVOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON MONDAY TO
WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE
MTNS BEING THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR CONVECTION.  THAT SAID...POOR
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF SAID CONVECTION THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. A WEAKNESS WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM BUT ANY INFLUENCE FROM IT SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FORT MAX DIVES SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE NOW PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES BUT
REMAINING BELOW 2 INCHES...AND FOR THE MOST PART BELOW 1.75 INCHES.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND SHOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WELL...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
HIGHS...TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TUESDAY JUST DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER VORT
MAX...BUT STILL ONLY CHANCES AT BEST /AND BEST CHANCES LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO
THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT DIVES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DO BUT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING PW VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND /HOVERING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT LEAST ON THE GFS/. 12Z
ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH BRING
DECENT QPF VALUES...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE WAVETRAIN SLIDES
EAST AND VERY VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS
MORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE APPALACHIAN SPINE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS AT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW JUST
BECAUSE WE ARE LOOKING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND QUITE A BIT COULD STILL
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE AS GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD
BY WAY OF NORTHWARD MIGRATING MID/UPPER LOW.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR
WITH VCSH MENTION AS LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ON RADAR WITH A 4HR TEMPO STARTING AT 20Z FOR LIGHT SHRA.
SHRA WILL PREVAIL FROM 00Z-03Z WHEN NAM/HRRR AGREE ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NC PIEDMONT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLY
YIELDING MVFR VISB.  CIGS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL START
OUT AT MID LEVELS...GRADUALLY LOWERING LOW VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
FROM THAT POINT GUIDANCE FAVORS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AMONGST
THE MOIST PBL WITH MVFR CIGS FAVORED BY 03Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN AWAY FROM
IFR...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE ANY
MENTION THUS KEPT SCT008 IN TAF.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO LOW VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.  WINDS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
WILL INITIALIZE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH TAF FEATURES SE WINDS.
THESE LIGHT SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE...LASTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD PERHAPS CALMING OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH SITES OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS EXPERIENCING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON EVENING DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE MIGRATING MID/UPPER
LOW AND ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TIED TO IT.  THUS...ALL SC
SITES FEATURE PREVAILING SHRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH KHKY HAVING A
TEMPO INCLUDED FOR SUCH.  TAF REMAINS DRY REGARDING ANY PREVAILING
PRECIP AT KAVL THEREFORE OPTED FOR VCSH ONLY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN THE MTNS THIS
EVENING AS THE PBL CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND WINDS CALM.  THUS KAVL
TAF FEATURES MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH EVEN AN LIFR VISB AROUND DAYBREAK.
GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORED IFR/LIFR AT THE SC SITES...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF CIGS THEREFORE THOSE WERE ALSO INCLUDED.  LOOKS AS IF KHKY
WILL SEE THE LEAST IMPACT OVERNIGHT HOWEVER STILL COULD EXPERIENCE
MVFR CIGS/VISB BY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...ALL TAFS ARE DRY BY MID
EARLY/MORNING WITH ALL CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...CALM OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     LOW   59%     HIGH  88%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     MED   64%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     MED   79%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   69%     HIGH  81%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH  85%     LOW   52%     HIGH  85%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 301853
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
253 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE OF VARYING DEGREES FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING A BROAD
REGION OF GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER NORTHEAST GA AND
THE CAROLINAS.  MID ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE...HOWEVER ACCORDING TO
GUIDANCE...SHOULD DO JUST THAT.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SAID SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER
SYNOPTIC SCALE Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADING OVERHEAD.  THUS...THE
FCST FEATURES CLOUDY SKIES WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH...TAPERING
TO CHANCE POPS FURTHEST NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.  POPS WILL GRADUALLY
ROTATE AS SAID SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TIED TO THE UPPER VORTEX SLIDES
THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT REGION TONIGHT THEREFORE LIKELY POPS ARE
FAVORED OVER BOTH THE NC/SC PIEDMONTS THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING
OVERNIGHT.  PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BURNING OFF AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.  THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA WILL PROVIDE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER CLOSER TO
HOME ON MONDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS.
NEVERTHELESS...MODELS DO FAVOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON MONDAY TO
WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE
MTNS BEING THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR CONVECTION.  THAT SAID...POOR
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF SAID CONVECTION THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE NEAR CLIMO LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. A WEAKNESS WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM BUT ANY INFLUENCE FROM IT SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FORT MAX DIVES SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE NOW PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES BUT
REMAINING BELOW 2 INCHES...AND FOR THE MOST PART BELOW 1.75 INCHES.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND SHOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WELL...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
HIGHS...TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TUESDAY JUST DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER VORT
MAX...BUT STILL ONLY CHANCES AT BEST /AND BEST CHANCES LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO
THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT DIVES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DO BUT BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING PW VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND /HOVERING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AT LEAST ON THE GFS/. 12Z
ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH BRING
DECENT QPF VALUES...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE WAVETRAIN SLIDES
EAST AND VERY VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS
MORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE APPALACHIAN SPINE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS AT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW JUST
BECAUSE WE ARE LOOKING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND QUITE A BIT COULD STILL
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE AS GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD
BY WAY OF NORTHWARD MIGRATING MID/UPPER LOW.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR
WITH VCSH MENTION AS LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ON RADAR WITH A 4HR TEMPO STARTING AT 20Z FOR LIGHT SHRA.
SHRA WILL PREVAIL FROM 00Z-03Z WHEN NAM/HRRR AGREE ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NC PIEDMONT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLY
YIELDING MVFR VISB.  CIGS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL START
OUT AT MID LEVELS...GRADUALLY LOWERING LOW VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
FROM THAT POINT GUIDANCE FAVORS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AMONGST
THE MOIST PBL WITH MVFR CIGS FAVORED BY 03Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN AWAY FROM
IFR...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE ANY
MENTION THUS KEPT SCT008 IN TAF.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO LOW VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.  WINDS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
WILL INITIALIZE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH TAF FEATURES SE WINDS.
THESE LIGHT SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE...LASTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD PERHAPS CALMING OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH SITES OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS EXPERIENCING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON EVENING DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE MIGRATING MID/UPPER
LOW AND ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TIED TO IT.  THUS...ALL SC
SITES FEATURE PREVAILING SHRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH KHKY HAVING A
TEMPO INCLUDED FOR SUCH.  TAF REMAINS DRY REGARDING ANY PREVAILING
PRECIP AT KAVL THEREFORE OPTED FOR VCSH ONLY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN THE MTNS THIS
EVENING AS THE PBL CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND WINDS CALM.  THUS KAVL
TAF FEATURES MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH EVEN AN LIFR VISB AROUND DAYBREAK.
GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORED IFR/LIFR AT THE SC SITES...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF CIGS THEREFORE THOSE WERE ALSO INCLUDED.  LOOKS AS IF KHKY
WILL SEE THE LEAST IMPACT OVERNIGHT HOWEVER STILL COULD EXPERIENCE
MVFR CIGS/VISB BY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...ALL TAFS ARE DRY BY MID
EARLY/MORNING WITH ALL CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...CALM OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     LOW   59%     HIGH  88%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     MED   64%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     MED   79%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   69%     HIGH  81%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH  85%     LOW   52%     HIGH  85%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 301746
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
146 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE OF VARYING DEGREES FROM THE REMANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...MOIST UPGLIDE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION YIELDING NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD
FURTHER NORTH.  STILL EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THEREFORE INCREASED POPS BOTH SPATIALLY AND
IN TIME YIELDING CAT LEVELS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO LIKELY LEVELS EAST OVER THE INTERSTATE
77 CORRIDOR INTO LATE EVENING.  RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
THEREFORE STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING HAZARDS WITH THIS
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST AS IT WAS.

AS OF 325 AM...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN
INTO A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. AS THE MID
LEVEL FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCT SHOWERS.  LATEST RADAR IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A
FEW PATCHES OF SPRINKLES DRIFTING OVER THE LAKE LANDS. LATEST RUNS
OF THE NAM AND 4 KM WRF SHOW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...I WILL FORECAST PRIMARILY SHOWERS. THE GFS INDICATES
THAT THE PERIOD OF GREATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BETWEEN 0Z TO 6Z MON. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE CLOSED LOW
OR S/W WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A BELT OF
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. I WILL FORECAST 30 TO
50 POPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
THICK CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ACROSS THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LIMITED TO THE U70S...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CLT METRO.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK NE...FOLLOWED BE WEAK
HEIGHT RISES DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. I WILL TREND POPS LOWER
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT REMAINING IN THE SCHC TO LCHC RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L60S ACROSS THE MTNS
TO THE UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ORPHANED OVER E TX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE A
BROADER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. UNDER
THIS UPPER RIDGE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING CONSENSUS IN THE
NUMERICAL MODELS ON KEEPING THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ERIKA REMNANTS SHUNTED SOUTH OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...WITH
THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONFINED MAINLY FROM FL TO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON THROUGH TUE. FOR OUR REGION...THIS MEANS CONTINUED
WEAK INSTABILITY IN VERTICAL PROFILES UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASING. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH MAX TEMPS SLOWLY
REBOUNDING TO NEAR CLIMO DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
EXIST WED THROUGH SAT AS THE PERSISTENT GULF COAST TROUGH SLOWLY
MIGRATES EAST UNDER THE BROAD FLAT ERN RIDGE. ANY REMNANT ERIKA
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO MAKE LITTLE NWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE ECM/NAM CAMP KEEPING THE REMNANT LOW CENTER NEAR
COASTAL GA/NE FL WHILE THE GFS CAMP IS FARTHER SW NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR HIGHLY UNCERTAIN MOISTURE PROFILES
OVER THE REGION...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER LIKELY
FROM THE DRIER NRN MOUNTAINS TO THE MORE MOIST LOWER SE PIEDMONT.
ANY PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT POTENTIAL FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD NOW
APPEARS QUITE NEBULOUS GIVEN THE CURRENT WEAK STATE OF THE ERIKA
REMNANTS AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR REINFORCING FROM NORTH
MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE SURFACE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST THINKING OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO/MAINLY DIURNAL POPS WED
THROUGH SAT...WITH GRADUALLY CLIMBING TEMPERATURES IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE AS GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD
BY WAY OF NORTHWARD MIGRATING MID/UPPER LOW.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR
WITH VCSH MENTION AS LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ON RADAR WITH A 4HR TEMPO STARTING AT 20Z FOR LIGHT SHRA.
SHRA WILL PREVAIL FROM 00Z-03Z WHEN NAM/HRRR AGREE ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NC PIEDMONT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLY
YIELDING MVFR VISB.  CIGS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL START
OUT AT MID LEVELS...GRADUALLY LOWERING LOW VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
FROM THAT POINT GUIDANCE FAVORS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AMONGST
THE MOIST PBL WITH MVFR CIGS FAVORED BY 03Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN AWAY FROM
IFR...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE ANY
MENTION THUS KEPT SCT008 IN TAF.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO LOW VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.  WINDS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
WILL INITIALIZE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH TAF FEATURES SE WINDS.
THESE LIGHT SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE...LASTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD PERHAPS CALMING OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH SITES OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS EXPERIENCING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON EVENING DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE MIGRATING MID/UPPER
LOW AND ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TIED TO IT.  THUS...ALL SC
SITES FEATURE PREVAILING SHRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH KHKY HAVING A
TEMPO INCLUDED FOR SUCH.  TAF REMAINS DRY REGARDING ANY PREVAILING
PRECIP AT KAVL THEREFORE OPTED FOR VCSH ONLY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN THE MTNS THIS
EVENING AS THE PBL CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND WINDS CALM.  THUS KAVL
TAF FEATURES MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH EVEN AN LIFR VISB AROUND DAYBREAK.
GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORED IFR/LIFR AT THE SC SITES...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF CIGS THEREFORE THOSE WERE ALSO INCLUDED.  LOOKS AS IF KHKY
WILL SEE THE LEAST IMPACT OVERNIGHT HOWEVER STILL COULD EXPERIENCE
MVFR CIGS/VISB BY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...ALL TAFS ARE DRY BY MID
EARLY/MORNING WITH ALL CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...CALM OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     LOW   50%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   77%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     MED   66%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 301746
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
146 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE OF VARYING DEGREES FROM THE REMANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...MOIST UPGLIDE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION YIELDING NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD
FURTHER NORTH.  STILL EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THEREFORE INCREASED POPS BOTH SPATIALLY AND
IN TIME YIELDING CAT LEVELS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO LIKELY LEVELS EAST OVER THE INTERSTATE
77 CORRIDOR INTO LATE EVENING.  RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
THEREFORE STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING HAZARDS WITH THIS
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST AS IT WAS.

AS OF 325 AM...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN
INTO A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. AS THE MID
LEVEL FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCT SHOWERS.  LATEST RADAR IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A
FEW PATCHES OF SPRINKLES DRIFTING OVER THE LAKE LANDS. LATEST RUNS
OF THE NAM AND 4 KM WRF SHOW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...I WILL FORECAST PRIMARILY SHOWERS. THE GFS INDICATES
THAT THE PERIOD OF GREATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BETWEEN 0Z TO 6Z MON. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE CLOSED LOW
OR S/W WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A BELT OF
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. I WILL FORECAST 30 TO
50 POPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
THICK CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ACROSS THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LIMITED TO THE U70S...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CLT METRO.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK NE...FOLLOWED BE WEAK
HEIGHT RISES DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. I WILL TREND POPS LOWER
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT REMAINING IN THE SCHC TO LCHC RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L60S ACROSS THE MTNS
TO THE UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ORPHANED OVER E TX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE A
BROADER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. UNDER
THIS UPPER RIDGE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING CONSENSUS IN THE
NUMERICAL MODELS ON KEEPING THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ERIKA REMNANTS SHUNTED SOUTH OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...WITH
THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONFINED MAINLY FROM FL TO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON THROUGH TUE. FOR OUR REGION...THIS MEANS CONTINUED
WEAK INSTABILITY IN VERTICAL PROFILES UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASING. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH MAX TEMPS SLOWLY
REBOUNDING TO NEAR CLIMO DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
EXIST WED THROUGH SAT AS THE PERSISTENT GULF COAST TROUGH SLOWLY
MIGRATES EAST UNDER THE BROAD FLAT ERN RIDGE. ANY REMNANT ERIKA
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO MAKE LITTLE NWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE ECM/NAM CAMP KEEPING THE REMNANT LOW CENTER NEAR
COASTAL GA/NE FL WHILE THE GFS CAMP IS FARTHER SW NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR HIGHLY UNCERTAIN MOISTURE PROFILES
OVER THE REGION...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER LIKELY
FROM THE DRIER NRN MOUNTAINS TO THE MORE MOIST LOWER SE PIEDMONT.
ANY PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT POTENTIAL FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD NOW
APPEARS QUITE NEBULOUS GIVEN THE CURRENT WEAK STATE OF THE ERIKA
REMNANTS AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR REINFORCING FROM NORTH
MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE SURFACE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST THINKING OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO/MAINLY DIURNAL POPS WED
THROUGH SAT...WITH GRADUALLY CLIMBING TEMPERATURES IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE AS GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD
BY WAY OF NORTHWARD MIGRATING MID/UPPER LOW.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR
WITH VCSH MENTION AS LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ON RADAR WITH A 4HR TEMPO STARTING AT 20Z FOR LIGHT SHRA.
SHRA WILL PREVAIL FROM 00Z-03Z WHEN NAM/HRRR AGREE ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NC PIEDMONT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLY
YIELDING MVFR VISB.  CIGS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL START
OUT AT MID LEVELS...GRADUALLY LOWERING LOW VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
FROM THAT POINT GUIDANCE FAVORS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AMONGST
THE MOIST PBL WITH MVFR CIGS FAVORED BY 03Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN AWAY FROM
IFR...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE ANY
MENTION THUS KEPT SCT008 IN TAF.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO LOW VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.  WINDS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
WILL INITIALIZE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH TAF FEATURES SE WINDS.
THESE LIGHT SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE...LASTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD PERHAPS CALMING OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH SITES OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS EXPERIENCING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON EVENING DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE MIGRATING MID/UPPER
LOW AND ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TIED TO IT.  THUS...ALL SC
SITES FEATURE PREVAILING SHRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH KHKY HAVING A
TEMPO INCLUDED FOR SUCH.  TAF REMAINS DRY REGARDING ANY PREVAILING
PRECIP AT KAVL THEREFORE OPTED FOR VCSH ONLY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN THE MTNS THIS
EVENING AS THE PBL CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND WINDS CALM.  THUS KAVL
TAF FEATURES MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH EVEN AN LIFR VISB AROUND DAYBREAK.
GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORED IFR/LIFR AT THE SC SITES...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF CIGS THEREFORE THOSE WERE ALSO INCLUDED.  LOOKS AS IF KHKY
WILL SEE THE LEAST IMPACT OVERNIGHT HOWEVER STILL COULD EXPERIENCE
MVFR CIGS/VISB BY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...ALL TAFS ARE DRY BY MID
EARLY/MORNING WITH ALL CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...CALM OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     LOW   50%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   77%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     MED   66%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 301746
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
146 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE OF VARYING DEGREES FROM THE REMANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...MOIST UPGLIDE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION YIELDING NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD
FURTHER NORTH.  STILL EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THEREFORE INCREASED POPS BOTH SPATIALLY AND
IN TIME YIELDING CAT LEVELS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO LIKELY LEVELS EAST OVER THE INTERSTATE
77 CORRIDOR INTO LATE EVENING.  RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE
THEREFORE STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING HAZARDS WITH THIS
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST AS IT WAS.

AS OF 325 AM...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN
INTO A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. AS THE MID
LEVEL FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCT SHOWERS.  LATEST RADAR IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A
FEW PATCHES OF SPRINKLES DRIFTING OVER THE LAKE LANDS. LATEST RUNS
OF THE NAM AND 4 KM WRF SHOW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...I WILL FORECAST PRIMARILY SHOWERS. THE GFS INDICATES
THAT THE PERIOD OF GREATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BETWEEN 0Z TO 6Z MON. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE CLOSED LOW
OR S/W WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A BELT OF
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. I WILL FORECAST 30 TO
50 POPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
THICK CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ACROSS THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LIMITED TO THE U70S...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CLT METRO.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK NE...FOLLOWED BE WEAK
HEIGHT RISES DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. I WILL TREND POPS LOWER
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT REMAINING IN THE SCHC TO LCHC RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L60S ACROSS THE MTNS
TO THE UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ORPHANED OVER E TX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE A
BROADER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. UNDER
THIS UPPER RIDGE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING CONSENSUS IN THE
NUMERICAL MODELS ON KEEPING THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ERIKA REMNANTS SHUNTED SOUTH OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...WITH
THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONFINED MAINLY FROM FL TO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON THROUGH TUE. FOR OUR REGION...THIS MEANS CONTINUED
WEAK INSTABILITY IN VERTICAL PROFILES UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASING. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH MAX TEMPS SLOWLY
REBOUNDING TO NEAR CLIMO DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
EXIST WED THROUGH SAT AS THE PERSISTENT GULF COAST TROUGH SLOWLY
MIGRATES EAST UNDER THE BROAD FLAT ERN RIDGE. ANY REMNANT ERIKA
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO MAKE LITTLE NWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE ECM/NAM CAMP KEEPING THE REMNANT LOW CENTER NEAR
COASTAL GA/NE FL WHILE THE GFS CAMP IS FARTHER SW NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR HIGHLY UNCERTAIN MOISTURE PROFILES
OVER THE REGION...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER LIKELY
FROM THE DRIER NRN MOUNTAINS TO THE MORE MOIST LOWER SE PIEDMONT.
ANY PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT POTENTIAL FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD NOW
APPEARS QUITE NEBULOUS GIVEN THE CURRENT WEAK STATE OF THE ERIKA
REMNANTS AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR REINFORCING FROM NORTH
MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE SURFACE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST THINKING OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO/MAINLY DIURNAL POPS WED
THROUGH SAT...WITH GRADUALLY CLIMBING TEMPERATURES IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE AS GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD
BY WAY OF NORTHWARD MIGRATING MID/UPPER LOW.  INITIALIZED TAF VFR
WITH VCSH MENTION AS LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ON RADAR WITH A 4HR TEMPO STARTING AT 20Z FOR LIGHT SHRA.
SHRA WILL PREVAIL FROM 00Z-03Z WHEN NAM/HRRR AGREE ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NC PIEDMONT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLY
YIELDING MVFR VISB.  CIGS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL START
OUT AT MID LEVELS...GRADUALLY LOWERING LOW VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
FROM THAT POINT GUIDANCE FAVORS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AMONGST
THE MOIST PBL WITH MVFR CIGS FAVORED BY 03Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN AWAY FROM
IFR...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE ANY
MENTION THUS KEPT SCT008 IN TAF.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO LOW VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.  WINDS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
WILL INITIALIZE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH TAF FEATURES SE WINDS.
THESE LIGHT SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE...LASTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD PERHAPS CALMING OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT ABOVE WITH SITES OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS EXPERIENCING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON EVENING DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE MIGRATING MID/UPPER
LOW AND ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TIED TO IT.  THUS...ALL SC
SITES FEATURE PREVAILING SHRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH KHKY HAVING A
TEMPO INCLUDED FOR SUCH.  TAF REMAINS DRY REGARDING ANY PREVAILING
PRECIP AT KAVL THEREFORE OPTED FOR VCSH ONLY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN THE MTNS THIS
EVENING AS THE PBL CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND WINDS CALM.  THUS KAVL
TAF FEATURES MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH EVEN AN LIFR VISB AROUND DAYBREAK.
GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORED IFR/LIFR AT THE SC SITES...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF CIGS THEREFORE THOSE WERE ALSO INCLUDED.  LOOKS AS IF KHKY
WILL SEE THE LEAST IMPACT OVERNIGHT HOWEVER STILL COULD EXPERIENCE
MVFR CIGS/VISB BY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...ALL TAFS ARE DRY BY MID
EARLY/MORNING WITH ALL CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...CALM OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     LOW   50%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   77%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     MED   66%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 301357
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
957 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. MOISTURE MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA...BUT WITH A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY REACH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...INCREASING COVERAGE DUE TO ENHANCED MOIST
UPGLIDE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE PERIPHERY PROMPTS A QUICK
UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS UP ACROSS THE LAKELANDS...EAST ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 85 WHERE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTH.  LATEST 12Z NAM COMING IN RIGHT NOW...AND IS ALREADY
INDICATING CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 85/77 CORRIDORS AS UPGLIDE CONTINUES...THUS ALSO
ADJUSTED POPS OVER THESE REGIONS.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS.

AS OF 325 AM...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN
INTO A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. AS THE MID
LEVEL FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCT SHOWERS.  LATEST RADAR IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A
FEW PATCHES OF SPRINKLES DRIFTING OVER THE LAKE LANDS. LATEST RUNS
OF THE NAM AND 4 KM WRF SHOW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...I WILL FORECAST PRIMARILY SHOWERS. THE GFS INDICATES
THAT THE PERIOD OF GREATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BETWEEN 0Z TO 6Z MON. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE CLOSED LOW
OR S/W WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A BELT OF
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. I WILL FORECAST 30 TO
50 POPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
THICK CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ACROSS THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LIMITED TO THE U70S...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CLT METRO.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK NE...FOLLOWED BE WEAK
HEIGHT RISES DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. I WILL TREND POPS LOWER
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT REMAINING IN THE SCHC TO LCHC RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L60S ACROSS THE MTNS
TO THE UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ORPHANED OVER E TX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE A
BROADER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. UNDER
THIS UPPER RIDGE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING CONSENSUS IN THE
NUMERICAL MODELS ON KEEPING THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ERIKA REMNANTS SHUNTED SOUTH OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...WITH
THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONFINED MAINLY FROM FL TO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON THROUGH TUE. FOR OUR REGION...THIS MEANS CONTINUED
WEAK INSTABILITY IN VERTICAL PROFILES UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASING. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH MAX TEMPS SLOWLY
REBOUNDING TO NEAR CLIMO DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
EXIST WED THROUGH SAT AS THE PERSISTENT GULF COAST TROUGH SLOWLY
MIGRATES EAST UNDER THE BROAD FLAT ERN RIDGE. ANY REMNANT ERIKA
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO MAKE LITTLE NWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE ECM/NAM CAMP KEEPING THE REMNANT LOW CENTER NEAR
COASTAL GA/NE FL WHILE THE GFS CAMP IS FARTHER SW NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR HIGHLY UNCERTAIN MOISTURE PROFILES
OVER THE REGION...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER LIKELY
FROM THE DRIER NRN MOUNTAINS TO THE MORE MOIST LOWER SE PIEDMONT.
ANY PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT POTENTIAL FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD NOW
APPEARS QUITE NEBULOUS GIVEN THE CURRENT WEAK STATE OF THE ERIKA
REMNANTS AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR REINFORCING FROM NORTH
MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE SURFACE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST THINKING OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO/MAINLY DIURNAL POPS WED
THROUGH SAT...WITH GRADUALLY CLIMBING TEMPERATURES IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN INTO
A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS.
SKY SHOULD REMAIN BKN TO OVC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. BASED ON RAPID NORTHWARD MOTION OF MORNING RA OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN...I WILL START VCSH BY 17Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ONE TO TWO HOURS AFTER
SUNSET...LOWER OVERNIGHT TO PRE DAWN IFR. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE 4Z TO
8Z WINDOW FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES...LOWERING VIS TO TEMPO
IFR. WINDS BE CHALLENGING TODAY...I WILL START THE TAF WITH ENE
WINDS...VEERING TO SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....THEN BACK
TO NE DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. I WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A VCSH MENTION FOR EACH TERMINAL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS...FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH BACKING TO NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   75%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     MED   79%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  81%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 301357
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
957 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. MOISTURE MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA...BUT WITH A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY REACH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...INCREASING COVERAGE DUE TO ENHANCED MOIST
UPGLIDE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE PERIPHERY PROMPTS A QUICK
UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS UP ACROSS THE LAKELANDS...EAST ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 85 WHERE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTH.  LATEST 12Z NAM COMING IN RIGHT NOW...AND IS ALREADY
INDICATING CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 85/77 CORRIDORS AS UPGLIDE CONTINUES...THUS ALSO
ADJUSTED POPS OVER THESE REGIONS.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS.

AS OF 325 AM...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN
INTO A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. AS THE MID
LEVEL FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCT SHOWERS.  LATEST RADAR IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A
FEW PATCHES OF SPRINKLES DRIFTING OVER THE LAKE LANDS. LATEST RUNS
OF THE NAM AND 4 KM WRF SHOW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...I WILL FORECAST PRIMARILY SHOWERS. THE GFS INDICATES
THAT THE PERIOD OF GREATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BETWEEN 0Z TO 6Z MON. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE CLOSED LOW
OR S/W WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A BELT OF
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. I WILL FORECAST 30 TO
50 POPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
THICK CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ACROSS THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY LIMITED TO THE U70S...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CLT METRO.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK NE...FOLLOWED BE WEAK
HEIGHT RISES DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. I WILL TREND POPS LOWER
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT REMAINING IN THE SCHC TO LCHC RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L60S ACROSS THE MTNS
TO THE UPPER 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ORPHANED OVER E TX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE A
BROADER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. UNDER
THIS UPPER RIDGE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING CONSENSUS IN THE
NUMERICAL MODELS ON KEEPING THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ERIKA REMNANTS SHUNTED SOUTH OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...WITH
THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONFINED MAINLY FROM FL TO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON THROUGH TUE. FOR OUR REGION...THIS MEANS CONTINUED
WEAK INSTABILITY IN VERTICAL PROFILES UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASING. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH MAX TEMPS SLOWLY
REBOUNDING TO NEAR CLIMO DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
EXIST WED THROUGH SAT AS THE PERSISTENT GULF COAST TROUGH SLOWLY
MIGRATES EAST UNDER THE BROAD FLAT ERN RIDGE. ANY REMNANT ERIKA
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO MAKE LITTLE NWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE ECM/NAM CAMP KEEPING THE REMNANT LOW CENTER NEAR
COASTAL GA/NE FL WHILE THE GFS CAMP IS FARTHER SW NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR HIGHLY UNCERTAIN MOISTURE PROFILES
OVER THE REGION...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER LIKELY
FROM THE DRIER NRN MOUNTAINS TO THE MORE MOIST LOWER SE PIEDMONT.
ANY PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT POTENTIAL FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD NOW
APPEARS QUITE NEBULOUS GIVEN THE CURRENT WEAK STATE OF THE ERIKA
REMNANTS AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR REINFORCING FROM NORTH
MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE SURFACE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST THINKING OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO/MAINLY DIURNAL POPS WED
THROUGH SAT...WITH GRADUALLY CLIMBING TEMPERATURES IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN INTO
A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS.
SKY SHOULD REMAIN BKN TO OVC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. BASED ON RAPID NORTHWARD MOTION OF MORNING RA OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN...I WILL START VCSH BY 17Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ONE TO TWO HOURS AFTER
SUNSET...LOWER OVERNIGHT TO PRE DAWN IFR. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE 4Z TO
8Z WINDOW FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES...LOWERING VIS TO TEMPO
IFR. WINDS BE CHALLENGING TODAY...I WILL START THE TAF WITH ENE
WINDS...VEERING TO SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....THEN BACK
TO NE DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. I WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A VCSH MENTION FOR EACH TERMINAL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS...FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH BACKING TO NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   75%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     MED   79%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  81%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 301032
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
632 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. MOISTURE MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA...BUT WITH A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY REACH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES A BAND OF LIGHT
RETURNS LIFTING BRISKLY NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A FEW
AREAS OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...I WILL UPDATE THE POPS AND WEATHER TO INDICATE GREATER
COVERAGE STARTING MID DAY. COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK LATE TONIGHT...WITH
BOTH THE 6Z NAM AND GFS SHOWING A HEAVY BAND OF RAINFALL SLIDING
OVER THE CLT METRO AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PEAK COVERAGE SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. I WILL
UPDATE QPF TO INDICATE GREATER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE RAINFALL AND THUNDER WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

AS OF 325 AM...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN
INTO A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS.
LATEST RADAR IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A FEW PATCHES OF
SPRINKLES DRIFTING OVER THE LAKE LANDS. LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND 4
KM WRF SHOW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...I WILL FORECAST PRIMARILY SHOWERS. THE GFS INDICATES THAT
THE PERIOD OF GREATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BETWEEN 0Z TO 6Z MON. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE CLOSED LOW OR S/W
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A BELT OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. I WILL FORECAST 30 TO 50 POPS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THICK
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY LIMITED TO THE U70S...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CLT METRO.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK NE...FOLLOWED BE WEAK HEIGHT
RISES DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. I WILL TREND POPS LOWER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT REMAINING IN THE SCHC TO LCHC RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 60S
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ORPHANED OVER E TX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE A
BROADER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. UNDER
THIS UPPER RIDGE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING CONSENSUS IN THE
NUMERICAL MODELS ON KEEPING THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ERIKA REMNANTS SHUNTED SOUTH OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...WITH
THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONFINED MAINLY FROM FL TO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON THROUGH TUE. FOR OUR REGION...THIS MEANS CONTINUED
WEAK INSTABILITY IN VERTICAL PROFILES UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASING. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH MAX TEMPS SLOWLY
REBOUNDING TO NEAR CLIMO DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
EXIST WED THROUGH SAT AS THE PERSISTENT GULF COAST TROUGH SLOWLY
MIGRATES EAST UNDER THE BROAD FLAT ERN RIDGE. ANY REMNANT ERIKA
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO MAKE LITTLE NWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE ECM/NAM CAMP KEEPING THE REMNANT LOW CENTER NEAR
COASTAL GA/NE FL WHILE THE GFS CAMP IS FARTHER SW NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR HIGHLY UNCERTAIN MOISTURE PROFILES
OVER THE REGION...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER LIKELY
FROM THE DRIER NRN MOUNTAINS TO THE MORE MOIST LOWER SE PIEDMONT.
ANY PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT POTENTIAL FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD NOW
APPEARS QUITE NEBULOUS GIVEN THE CURRENT WEAK STATE OF THE ERIKA
REMNANTS AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR REINFORCING FROM NORTH
MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE SURFACE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST THINKING OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO/MAINLY DIURNAL POPS WED
THROUGH SAT...WITH GRADUALLY CLIMBING TEMPERATURES IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN INTO
A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS.
SKY SHOULD REMAIN BKN TO OVC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. BASED ON RAPID NORTHWARD MOTION OF MORNING RA OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN...I WILL START VCSH BY 17Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ONE TO TWO HOURS AFTER
SUNSET...LOWER OVERNIGHT TO PRE DAWN IFR. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE 4Z TO
8Z WINDOW FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES...LOWERING VIS TO TEMPO
IFR. WINDS BE CHALLENGING TODAY...I WILL START THE TAF WITH ENE
WINDS...VEERING TO SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....THEN BACK
TO NE DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. I WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A VCSH MENTION FOR EACH TERMINAL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS...FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH BACKING TO NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 300734
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. MOISTURE MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA...BUT WITH A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY REACH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN
INTO A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS.
LATEST RADAR IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A FEW PATCHES OF
SPRINKLES DRIFTING OVER THE LAKE LANDS. LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND 4
KM WRF SHOW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...I WILL FORECAST PRIMARILY SHOWERS. THE GFS INDICATES THAT
THE PERIOD OF GREATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BETWEEN 0Z TO 6Z MON. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE CLOSED LOW OR S/W
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A BELT OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. I WILL FORECAST 30 TO 50 POPS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THICK
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY LIMITED TO THE U70S...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CLT METRO.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK NE...FOLLOWED BE WEAK HEIGHT
RISES DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. I WILL TREND POPS LOWER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT REMAINING IN THE SCHC TO LCHC RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 60S
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ORPHANED OVER E TX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE A
BROADER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. UNDER
THIS UPPER RIDGE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING CONSENSUS IN THE
NUMERICAL MODELS ON KEEPING THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ERIKA REMNANTS SHUNTED SOUTH OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...WITH
THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONFINED MAINLY FROM FL TO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON THROUGH TUE. FOR OUR REGION...THIS MEANS CONTINUED
WEAK INSTABILITY IN VERTICAL PROFILES UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASING. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH MAX TEMPS SLOWLY
REBOUNDING TO NEAR CLIMO DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
EXIST WED THROUGH SAT AS THE PERSISTENT GULF COAST TROUGH SLOWLY
MIGRATES EAST UNDER THE BROAD FLAT ERN RIDGE. ANY REMNANT ERIKA
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO MAKE LITTLE NWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE ECM/NAM CAMP KEEPING THE REMNANT LOW CENTER NEAR
COASTAL GA/NE FL WHILE THE GFS CAMP IS FARTHER SW NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR HIGHLY UNCERTAIN MOISTURE PROFILES
OVER THE REGION...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER LIKELY
FROM THE DRIER NRN MOUNTAINS TO THE MORE MOIST LOWER SE PIEDMONT.
ANY PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT POTENTIAL FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD NOW
APPEARS QUITE NEBULOUS GIVEN THE CURRENT WEAK STATE OF THE ERIKA
REMNANTS AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR REINFORCING FROM NORTH
MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE SURFACE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST THINKING OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO/MAINLY DIURNAL POPS WED
THROUGH SAT...WITH GRADUALLY CLIMBING TEMPERATURES IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN INTO
A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS.
SKY SHOULD REMAIN BKN TO OVC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
ONE TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. I WILL INCLUDE A VCSH BETWEEN 2Z TO
4Z. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. I WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A VCSH MENTION FOR EACH TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS...FAVORING THE SOUTH...ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  93%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 300734
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. MOISTURE MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA...BUT WITH A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY REACH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN
INTO A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS.
LATEST RADAR IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A FEW PATCHES OF
SPRINKLES DRIFTING OVER THE LAKE LANDS. LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND 4
KM WRF SHOW SPRINKLES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...I WILL FORECAST PRIMARILY SHOWERS. THE GFS INDICATES THAT
THE PERIOD OF GREATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BETWEEN 0Z TO 6Z MON. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE CLOSED LOW OR S/W
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A BELT OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. I WILL FORECAST 30 TO 50 POPS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THICK
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY LIMITED TO THE U70S...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CLT METRO.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK NE...FOLLOWED BE WEAK HEIGHT
RISES DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. I WILL TREND POPS LOWER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT REMAINING IN THE SCHC TO LCHC RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 60S
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ORPHANED OVER E TX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE A
BROADER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. UNDER
THIS UPPER RIDGE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING CONSENSUS IN THE
NUMERICAL MODELS ON KEEPING THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ERIKA REMNANTS SHUNTED SOUTH OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...WITH
THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONFINED MAINLY FROM FL TO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS MON THROUGH TUE. FOR OUR REGION...THIS MEANS CONTINUED
WEAK INSTABILITY IN VERTICAL PROFILES UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASING. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH MAX TEMPS SLOWLY
REBOUNDING TO NEAR CLIMO DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
EXIST WED THROUGH SAT AS THE PERSISTENT GULF COAST TROUGH SLOWLY
MIGRATES EAST UNDER THE BROAD FLAT ERN RIDGE. ANY REMNANT ERIKA
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO MAKE LITTLE NWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE ECM/NAM CAMP KEEPING THE REMNANT LOW CENTER NEAR
COASTAL GA/NE FL WHILE THE GFS CAMP IS FARTHER SW NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR HIGHLY UNCERTAIN MOISTURE PROFILES
OVER THE REGION...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER LIKELY
FROM THE DRIER NRN MOUNTAINS TO THE MORE MOIST LOWER SE PIEDMONT.
ANY PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT POTENTIAL FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD NOW
APPEARS QUITE NEBULOUS GIVEN THE CURRENT WEAK STATE OF THE ERIKA
REMNANTS AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR REINFORCING FROM NORTH
MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE SURFACE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST THINKING OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO/MAINLY DIURNAL POPS WED
THROUGH SAT...WITH GRADUALLY CLIMBING TEMPERATURES IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN INTO
A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS.
SKY SHOULD REMAIN BKN TO OVC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
ONE TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. I WILL INCLUDE A VCSH BETWEEN 2Z TO
4Z. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. I WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A VCSH MENTION FOR EACH TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS...FAVORING THE SOUTH...ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  93%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 300558
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE FATE OF ERIKA WILL BECOME MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD GRADUALLY REACH THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN
INTO A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE MID
LEVEL FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT
SHOWERS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER AND POPS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

0220 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK PER RADR TRENDS. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SKY COVER WAS
UDPATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

2315 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY PER RADAR TRENDS. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE
LATEST MODEL DATA. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

2040 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PER RADAR TRENDS...
FAVORING THE CENTRAL TN BORDER AREA. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
COMPLIMENTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ATOP THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS
AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC YIELDING PREDOMINATE ENE/ESE FLOW AND THUS DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 50S UNDER PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  EXPECTING SAID UPPER
LOW TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ENHANCING
GULF/ATL MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
IN RESPONSE...LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS EASTCENTRAL
GA ARE FCST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND THE NC HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED FOR SUCH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FIRST PERIOD BEFORE ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BRIEFLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
OUTSIDE OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE SLIGHT CHANCES WILL PERSIST.

AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME ADVANCES NORTHWARD BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...POPS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE FCST FEATURES
SLIGHT CHANCES OVER WEST EARLY...INCREASING WITH TIME TO HIGH
END CHANCES OVER THE WEST...AND SLIGHT CHANCES EAST IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO LESS MOIST AIRMASS ADJACENT TO DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
NOT EXPECTING ANY HAZARDOUS WX AS THE PWATS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE DAMPENED THANKS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES ON SUNDAY.  AS A RESULT OF SAID SKY COVER...EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND 3-4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEAN PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO
UPPER RIDING ALOFT WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY STILL BROKEN OFF OVER THE
SOUTH. A PORTION OF THIS ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. 250-300MB JET WILL BE PUSHING NORTH
ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS WITH A DECENT VORT MAX WITH IT.
BEST PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA BUT SHOULD PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF OUR UPSTATE
ZONES. WILL GET TO THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MORE BELOW...BUT THIS FIRST
SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MIGHT BE TRENDING MORE TOWARD A
PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENT /PRE/...AS MENTIONED IN THE OVERNIGHT
DISCUSSION...BUT BY DEFINITION COULD ONLY BE A PRE IF WE ACTUALLY
GET IMPACTED BY THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. AGAIN...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

THE WAVE PUSHES RAPIDLY EAST AND OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS FLORIDA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE FOR SURE BUT AT
LEAST INCREASING CONFIDENCE BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE THAT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM SHOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACTS FROM THE REMNANTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SO WE SEE A
RETURN TO CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS AND A SLIGHT INCREASING TREND IN
TEMPS...BUT STILL WITH HIGHS HOVERING JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY GIVEN THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND
CORRESPONDING AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CLOUD
COVER.

TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE WITH
THE 12Z GFS BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING THE MOISTURE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEAKNESS IS A LITTLE MORE
PRONOUNCED ON THE GFS WHICH IS LIKELY THE CULPRIT...AS THE UPPER
FLOW AROUND THE CUTTING OFF LOW PULLS MORE MOISTURE NORTH ON THE
GFS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SHOULD NOT REALLY START TO SEE ANY IMPACTS
OF THIS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT THINGS GET MORE
COMPLICATED AS WE GO INTO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS NO CLEAR
CONSENSUS ON WHAT THIS MOISTURE WILL DO. THE 12Z GFS HAS THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE /PW VALUES BETWEEN 2-2.25 INCHES/ HOVERING RIGHT ON
OUR DOORSTEP ACROSS GEORGIA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND ITSELF /IT IS THE
REMNANT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM AFTER ALL/ BUT ITS DIRECTION WILL BE
FORCED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VERSUS
THE UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE
12Z GFS KEEPS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI UPPER LOW ABSORBING THE REMNANTS AND KEEPING IT
GENERALLY WET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS PRETTY
MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI LOW ITS OWN ENTITY AND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA PHASE
WITH A SLOWLY DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
NOT ABSORBING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI LOW UNTIL SOMETIME ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE IS ANEMIC WITH THE ECMWF AND REMAINS EITHER OFFSHORE OR TO
OUR SOUTH...WITH BASICALLY JUST CLIMO POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

RECONCILING THESE TWO FORECASTS...ONE VERY WET WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO PROBLEMS...AND THE OTHER MUCH DRIER /RELATIVELY
SPEAKING OF COURSE/ WITH MORE OF A CLIMO PATTERN...IS DIFFICULT AT
BEST. ADD TO THIS THE RAIN POTENTIAL /PRE POTENTIAL AT THAT/ DURING
THE SHORT TERM AND THE FORECAST IS RIDDLED WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
THAN USUAL. IF ONE WERE TO BELIEVE THE GFS...SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AT LEAST SOMEWHERE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. FOR NOW THAT SOMEWHERE IS GENERALLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA BUT WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL PW
VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN GENERAL...BUT AS WITH ANY FORECAST
COULD EASILY CHANGE. THE ECMWF NOT SO EXCITED.  WITH LACK OF MORE
CONSISTENT GUIDANCE...TRIED TO TAKE A BIT OF A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD
SOLUTION WITH GENERALLY AN ENHANCED DIURNAL TREND TO POPS AND A
REDUCED DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPERATURES. STAY TUNED THOUGH AS THE
FORECAST COULD EASILY SWING...MAYBE EVEN MARKEDLY SO...IN ONE
DIRECTION OR THE OTHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN INTO
A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS.
SKY SHOULD REMAIN BKN TO OVC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
ONE TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. I WILL INCLUDE A VCSH BETWEEN 2Z TO
4Z. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. I WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A VCSH MENTION FOR EACH TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS...FAVORING THE SOUTH...ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  85%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 300558
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE FATE OF ERIKA WILL BECOME MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD GRADUALLY REACH THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN
INTO A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE MID
LEVEL FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT
SHOWERS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER AND POPS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

0220 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK PER RADR TRENDS. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SKY COVER WAS
UDPATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

2315 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY PER RADAR TRENDS. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE
LATEST MODEL DATA. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

2040 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PER RADAR TRENDS...
FAVORING THE CENTRAL TN BORDER AREA. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
COMPLIMENTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ATOP THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS
AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC YIELDING PREDOMINATE ENE/ESE FLOW AND THUS DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 50S UNDER PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  EXPECTING SAID UPPER
LOW TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ENHANCING
GULF/ATL MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
IN RESPONSE...LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS EASTCENTRAL
GA ARE FCST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND THE NC HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED FOR SUCH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FIRST PERIOD BEFORE ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BRIEFLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
OUTSIDE OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE SLIGHT CHANCES WILL PERSIST.

AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME ADVANCES NORTHWARD BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...POPS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE FCST FEATURES
SLIGHT CHANCES OVER WEST EARLY...INCREASING WITH TIME TO HIGH
END CHANCES OVER THE WEST...AND SLIGHT CHANCES EAST IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO LESS MOIST AIRMASS ADJACENT TO DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
NOT EXPECTING ANY HAZARDOUS WX AS THE PWATS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE DAMPENED THANKS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES ON SUNDAY.  AS A RESULT OF SAID SKY COVER...EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND 3-4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEAN PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO
UPPER RIDING ALOFT WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY STILL BROKEN OFF OVER THE
SOUTH. A PORTION OF THIS ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. 250-300MB JET WILL BE PUSHING NORTH
ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS WITH A DECENT VORT MAX WITH IT.
BEST PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA BUT SHOULD PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF OUR UPSTATE
ZONES. WILL GET TO THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MORE BELOW...BUT THIS FIRST
SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MIGHT BE TRENDING MORE TOWARD A
PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENT /PRE/...AS MENTIONED IN THE OVERNIGHT
DISCUSSION...BUT BY DEFINITION COULD ONLY BE A PRE IF WE ACTUALLY
GET IMPACTED BY THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. AGAIN...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

THE WAVE PUSHES RAPIDLY EAST AND OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS FLORIDA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE FOR SURE BUT AT
LEAST INCREASING CONFIDENCE BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE THAT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM SHOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACTS FROM THE REMNANTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SO WE SEE A
RETURN TO CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS AND A SLIGHT INCREASING TREND IN
TEMPS...BUT STILL WITH HIGHS HOVERING JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY GIVEN THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND
CORRESPONDING AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CLOUD
COVER.

TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE WITH
THE 12Z GFS BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING THE MOISTURE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEAKNESS IS A LITTLE MORE
PRONOUNCED ON THE GFS WHICH IS LIKELY THE CULPRIT...AS THE UPPER
FLOW AROUND THE CUTTING OFF LOW PULLS MORE MOISTURE NORTH ON THE
GFS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SHOULD NOT REALLY START TO SEE ANY IMPACTS
OF THIS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT THINGS GET MORE
COMPLICATED AS WE GO INTO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS NO CLEAR
CONSENSUS ON WHAT THIS MOISTURE WILL DO. THE 12Z GFS HAS THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE /PW VALUES BETWEEN 2-2.25 INCHES/ HOVERING RIGHT ON
OUR DOORSTEP ACROSS GEORGIA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND ITSELF /IT IS THE
REMNANT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM AFTER ALL/ BUT ITS DIRECTION WILL BE
FORCED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VERSUS
THE UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE
12Z GFS KEEPS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI UPPER LOW ABSORBING THE REMNANTS AND KEEPING IT
GENERALLY WET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS PRETTY
MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI LOW ITS OWN ENTITY AND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA PHASE
WITH A SLOWLY DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
NOT ABSORBING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI LOW UNTIL SOMETIME ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE IS ANEMIC WITH THE ECMWF AND REMAINS EITHER OFFSHORE OR TO
OUR SOUTH...WITH BASICALLY JUST CLIMO POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

RECONCILING THESE TWO FORECASTS...ONE VERY WET WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO PROBLEMS...AND THE OTHER MUCH DRIER /RELATIVELY
SPEAKING OF COURSE/ WITH MORE OF A CLIMO PATTERN...IS DIFFICULT AT
BEST. ADD TO THIS THE RAIN POTENTIAL /PRE POTENTIAL AT THAT/ DURING
THE SHORT TERM AND THE FORECAST IS RIDDLED WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
THAN USUAL. IF ONE WERE TO BELIEVE THE GFS...SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AT LEAST SOMEWHERE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. FOR NOW THAT SOMEWHERE IS GENERALLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA BUT WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL PW
VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN GENERAL...BUT AS WITH ANY FORECAST
COULD EASILY CHANGE. THE ECMWF NOT SO EXCITED.  WITH LACK OF MORE
CONSISTENT GUIDANCE...TRIED TO TAKE A BIT OF A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD
SOLUTION WITH GENERALLY AN ENHANCED DIURNAL TREND TO POPS AND A
REDUCED DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPERATURES. STAY TUNED THOUGH AS THE
FORECAST COULD EASILY SWING...MAYBE EVEN MARKEDLY SO...IN ONE
DIRECTION OR THE OTHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN INTO
A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS.
SKY SHOULD REMAIN BKN TO OVC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
ONE TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. I WILL INCLUDE A VCSH BETWEEN 2Z TO
4Z. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. I WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A VCSH MENTION FOR EACH TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS...FAVORING THE SOUTH...ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  85%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 300558
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE FATE OF ERIKA WILL BECOME MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD GRADUALLY REACH THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN
INTO A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE MID
LEVEL FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT
SHOWERS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER AND POPS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

0220 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK PER RADR TRENDS. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SKY COVER WAS
UDPATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

2315 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY PER RADAR TRENDS. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE
LATEST MODEL DATA. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

2040 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PER RADAR TRENDS...
FAVORING THE CENTRAL TN BORDER AREA. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
COMPLIMENTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ATOP THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS
AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC YIELDING PREDOMINATE ENE/ESE FLOW AND THUS DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 50S UNDER PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  EXPECTING SAID UPPER
LOW TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL THE WHILE ENHANCING
GULF/ATL MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
IN RESPONSE...LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS EASTCENTRAL
GA ARE FCST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND THE NC HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED FOR SUCH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FIRST PERIOD BEFORE ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BRIEFLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
OUTSIDE OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE SLIGHT CHANCES WILL PERSIST.

AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME ADVANCES NORTHWARD BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...POPS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE FCST FEATURES
SLIGHT CHANCES OVER WEST EARLY...INCREASING WITH TIME TO HIGH
END CHANCES OVER THE WEST...AND SLIGHT CHANCES EAST IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO LESS MOIST AIRMASS ADJACENT TO DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
NOT EXPECTING ANY HAZARDOUS WX AS THE PWATS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE DAMPENED THANKS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES ON SUNDAY.  AS A RESULT OF SAID SKY COVER...EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND 3-4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEAN PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO
UPPER RIDING ALOFT WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY STILL BROKEN OFF OVER THE
SOUTH. A PORTION OF THIS ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE
ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. 250-300MB JET WILL BE PUSHING NORTH
ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS WITH A DECENT VORT MAX WITH IT.
BEST PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA BUT SHOULD PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF OUR UPSTATE
ZONES. WILL GET TO THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MORE BELOW...BUT THIS FIRST
SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MIGHT BE TRENDING MORE TOWARD A
PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENT /PRE/...AS MENTIONED IN THE OVERNIGHT
DISCUSSION...BUT BY DEFINITION COULD ONLY BE A PRE IF WE ACTUALLY
GET IMPACTED BY THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. AGAIN...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

THE WAVE PUSHES RAPIDLY EAST AND OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS FLORIDA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE FOR SURE BUT AT
LEAST INCREASING CONFIDENCE BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE THAT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM SHOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACTS FROM THE REMNANTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SO WE SEE A
RETURN TO CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS AND A SLIGHT INCREASING TREND IN
TEMPS...BUT STILL WITH HIGHS HOVERING JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY GIVEN THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND
CORRESPONDING AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CLOUD
COVER.

TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE WITH
THE 12Z GFS BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING THE MOISTURE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEAKNESS IS A LITTLE MORE
PRONOUNCED ON THE GFS WHICH IS LIKELY THE CULPRIT...AS THE UPPER
FLOW AROUND THE CUTTING OFF LOW PULLS MORE MOISTURE NORTH ON THE
GFS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SHOULD NOT REALLY START TO SEE ANY IMPACTS
OF THIS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT THINGS GET MORE
COMPLICATED AS WE GO INTO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS NO CLEAR
CONSENSUS ON WHAT THIS MOISTURE WILL DO. THE 12Z GFS HAS THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE /PW VALUES BETWEEN 2-2.25 INCHES/ HOVERING RIGHT ON
OUR DOORSTEP ACROSS GEORGIA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND ITSELF /IT IS THE
REMNANT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM AFTER ALL/ BUT ITS DIRECTION WILL BE
FORCED BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VERSUS
THE UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE
12Z GFS KEEPS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI UPPER LOW ABSORBING THE REMNANTS AND KEEPING IT
GENERALLY WET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS PRETTY
MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI LOW ITS OWN ENTITY AND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA PHASE
WITH A SLOWLY DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
NOT ABSORBING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI LOW UNTIL SOMETIME ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE IS ANEMIC WITH THE ECMWF AND REMAINS EITHER OFFSHORE OR TO
OUR SOUTH...WITH BASICALLY JUST CLIMO POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

RECONCILING THESE TWO FORECASTS...ONE VERY WET WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO PROBLEMS...AND THE OTHER MUCH DRIER /RELATIVELY
SPEAKING OF COURSE/ WITH MORE OF A CLIMO PATTERN...IS DIFFICULT AT
BEST. ADD TO THIS THE RAIN POTENTIAL /PRE POTENTIAL AT THAT/ DURING
THE SHORT TERM AND THE FORECAST IS RIDDLED WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
THAN USUAL. IF ONE WERE TO BELIEVE THE GFS...SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AT LEAST SOMEWHERE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. FOR NOW THAT SOMEWHERE IS GENERALLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA BUT WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL PW
VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN GENERAL...BUT AS WITH ANY FORECAST
COULD EASILY CHANGE. THE ECMWF NOT SO EXCITED.  WITH LACK OF MORE
CONSISTENT GUIDANCE...TRIED TO TAKE A BIT OF A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD
SOLUTION WITH GENERALLY AN ENHANCED DIURNAL TREND TO POPS AND A
REDUCED DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPERATURES. STAY TUNED THOUGH AS THE
FORECAST COULD EASILY SWING...MAYBE EVEN MARKEDLY SO...IN ONE
DIRECTION OR THE OTHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN INTO
A S/W...EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS.
SKY SHOULD REMAIN BKN TO OVC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
ONE TO TWO HOURS AFTER SUNSET. I WILL INCLUDE A VCSH BETWEEN 2Z TO
4Z. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. I WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A VCSH MENTION FOR EACH TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS...FAVORING THE SOUTH...ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A PLUME
OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE MID WEEK. RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WITH THE MTN VALLEY FOG
AROUND DAWN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  85%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...NED





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