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000
FXUS62 KGSP 161133
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
733 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...PATCHY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG THOSE FRONTS THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY GET BRIEFLY WORSE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BEFORE
RAPID IMPROVEMENT OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING.

NW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH. A BIT OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO FILTER IN...WITH THE UPSHOT BEING
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC
MTNS WITHIN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE NW FLOW SHOULD ALSO ACT TO SCOUR
THE LOW CLOUDS IN FAIRLY QUICK FASHION WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNRISE...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
14Z...BUT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER RATHER QUICKLY
AFTERWORDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY NOON-ISH. THAT BEING
SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY...AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT NNE TO NNE FROM LATE MORNING ON. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

ELSEWHERE...LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KGSP/KGMU/KHKY...WHILE
KAVL APPEARS TO BE SEEING THE INITIAL EFFECT OF AN INCREASING NW UP
VALLEY FLOW...AS CIGS HAVE RECENTLY LIFTED AND SCATTERED THERE.
EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...BUT INCR DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/SCATTERING RATHER
QUICKLY AFTERWORDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING.
THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS
BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...
ESP AT KAVL. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       LOW   57%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KGSP       MED   63%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       LOW   47%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       MED   76%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 161133
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
733 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...PATCHY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG THOSE FRONTS THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY GET BRIEFLY WORSE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BEFORE
RAPID IMPROVEMENT OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING.

NW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH. A BIT OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO FILTER IN...WITH THE UPSHOT BEING
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC
MTNS WITHIN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE NW FLOW SHOULD ALSO ACT TO SCOUR
THE LOW CLOUDS IN FAIRLY QUICK FASHION WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNRISE...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
14Z...BUT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER RATHER QUICKLY
AFTERWORDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY NOON-ISH. THAT BEING
SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY...AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT NNE TO NNE FROM LATE MORNING ON. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

ELSEWHERE...LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KGSP/KGMU/KHKY...WHILE
KAVL APPEARS TO BE SEEING THE INITIAL EFFECT OF AN INCREASING NW UP
VALLEY FLOW...AS CIGS HAVE RECENTLY LIFTED AND SCATTERED THERE.
EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...BUT INCR DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/SCATTERING RATHER
QUICKLY AFTERWORDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING.
THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS
BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...
ESP AT KAVL. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       LOW   57%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KGSP       MED   63%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       LOW   47%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KAND       MED   76%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 160745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH. A BIT OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO FILTER IN...WITH THE UPSHOT BEING
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC
MTNS WITHIN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE NW FLOW SHOULD ALSO ACT TO SCOUR
THE LOW CLOUDS IN FAIRLY QUICK FASHION WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNRISE...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER LESS-THAN-CONFIDENT FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...SEE NO REASON WHY THE
NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD BRING ANY IMPROVEMENT TO THE TERMINAL. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE WORSE BEFORE
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT THE FLIGHT CATEGORY TO AT LEAST FLIRT WITH
LIFR CIGS PERIODICALLY. VISBY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...ESP WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT VISBY TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH PERIODS OF VFR AND IFR
POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z.

ELSEWHERE...GREENVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREA TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO.
SOME SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TANKS
AFTER 09-10Z...AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS DEVELOPING
DOWNSLOPE (UP-VALLEY AT KAVL) WIND COULD RESULT IN LIFTING CIGS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE HAVE THEREFORE FEATURED SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT
THESE TERMINALS BY 10Z...BUT AT LEAST A TEMPO FOR IFR WILL BE
CARRIED THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...KAND/KHKY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE
INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA
AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   73%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   64%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     LOW   49%
KHKY       MED   60%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   68%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   72%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 160745
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SEASONABLY
COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE COOL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH. A BIT OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO FILTER IN...WITH THE UPSHOT BEING
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC
MTNS WITHIN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE NW FLOW SHOULD ALSO ACT TO SCOUR
THE LOW CLOUDS IN FAIRLY QUICK FASHION WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNRISE...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY LATE MORNING.

A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL FIND AN AIR MASS WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT THAN
WE/VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL HEATING
(WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR CLIMO) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY TRUCKING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATELY FAST W/NW
FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
RESPECTABLE TODAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY ROBUST (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG)...BUT SOME DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION AND A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY REACH A NADIR DURING EARLY EVENING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL JUICE LINGERING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING MOST OF THE ERN STATES UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES KEEP MOVING AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF IT. OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A LARGER
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES IN FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BURIED IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE ALSO SHOWN ON THE NAM/GFS/EC...RESOLVED
MORE DISTINCTLY ON THE NAM ON ACCOUNT OF ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR INSUFFICIENT FOR THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP ON THEIR OWN...AND THEY ARE POORLY TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWFA. IN FACT ON THU THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A WAVE APPEARS TO BE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT THAT BAD EITHER DAY...MODELS SUPPORT SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA WED. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE THU LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO BOTH DAYS THOUGH
CLEARER SKIES THU WARRANT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES. THE SFC HIGH AND
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LINE UP
THU NIGHT TO ALLOW CAD TO FORM WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUE...AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EARNEST COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION
REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT. EASTERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. PARENT HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WEDGE HOLDS ON THRU SATURDAY.
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON IT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  16/00Z GFS AND 15/12Z EC CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY BUT BOTH FEATURE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT OF THE TENN VALLEY AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EACH
MODEL AGREES WITH THE PATTERN SEEN ON THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH CARVING OUT BY NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS TREND UPWARD THRU THE PERIOD AS THE WEDGE GIVES WAY AND THE
FROPA OCCURS...BUT AT THEIR WARMEST ARE AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER LESS-THAN-CONFIDENT FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...SEE NO REASON WHY THE
NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD BRING ANY IMPROVEMENT TO THE TERMINAL. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE WORSE BEFORE
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT THE FLIGHT CATEGORY TO AT LEAST FLIRT WITH
LIFR CIGS PERIODICALLY. VISBY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...ESP WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT VISBY TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH PERIODS OF VFR AND IFR
POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z.

ELSEWHERE...GREENVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREA TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO.
SOME SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TANKS
AFTER 09-10Z...AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS DEVELOPING
DOWNSLOPE (UP-VALLEY AT KAVL) WIND COULD RESULT IN LIFTING CIGS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE HAVE THEREFORE FEATURED SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT
THESE TERMINALS BY 10Z...BUT AT LEAST A TEMPO FOR IFR WILL BE
CARRIED THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...KAND/KHKY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE
INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA
AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   73%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   67%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   64%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     LOW   49%
KHKY       MED   60%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   68%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   72%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 160559
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM...ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND EVEN ISLD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE GA MOUNTAINS AND
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE CHANCE RANGE
IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST IN MOST AREAS UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.

AS OF 1015 PM...A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE LIGHT SHWRS HAVE SURVIVED TO
THE NC PIEDMONT AND EASTERN UPSTATE. SO POPS WERE TWEAKED UP IN
THOSE AREAS TO MID CHC. TO THE WEST...AS THE MID LVL SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTNS...THE BACK EDGE OF THE BETTER FORCING SHUD
PUSH THRU...ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER OFF. THE COMBINATION OF SPOTTY
RAINFALL AND SOME CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG.
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 800 PM...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...SHWRS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE
MTNS AND HEADING EAST. THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH INSTBY TO WORK WITH
EAST OF THE MTNS...SO I EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED...AND
PROBABLY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER LESS-THAN-CONFIDENT FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...SEE NO REASON WHY THE
NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD BRING ANY IMPROVEMENT TO THE TERMINAL. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE WORSE BEFORE
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT THE FLIGHT CATEGORY TO AT LEAST FLIRT WITH
LIFR CIGS PERIODICALLY. VISBY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...ESP WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT VISBY TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH PERIODS OF VFR AND IFR
POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z.

ELSEWHERE...GREENVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREA TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO.
SOME SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TANKS
AFTER 09-10Z...AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS DEVELOPING
DOWNSLOPE (UP-VALLEY AT KAVL) WIND COULD RESULT IN LIFTING CIGS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE HAVE THEREFORE FEATURED SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT
THESE TERMINALS BY 10Z...BUT AT LEAST A TEMPO FOR IFR WILL BE
CARRIED THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...KAND/KHKY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE
INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA
AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       MED   77%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   74%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   61%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KHKY       MED   66%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   70%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 160559
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM...ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND EVEN ISLD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE GA MOUNTAINS AND
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE CHANCE RANGE
IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST IN MOST AREAS UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.

AS OF 1015 PM...A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE LIGHT SHWRS HAVE SURVIVED TO
THE NC PIEDMONT AND EASTERN UPSTATE. SO POPS WERE TWEAKED UP IN
THOSE AREAS TO MID CHC. TO THE WEST...AS THE MID LVL SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTNS...THE BACK EDGE OF THE BETTER FORCING SHUD
PUSH THRU...ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER OFF. THE COMBINATION OF SPOTTY
RAINFALL AND SOME CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG.
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 800 PM...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...SHWRS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE
MTNS AND HEADING EAST. THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH INSTBY TO WORK WITH
EAST OF THE MTNS...SO I EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED...AND
PROBABLY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER LESS-THAN-CONFIDENT FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...SEE NO REASON WHY THE
NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD BRING ANY IMPROVEMENT TO THE TERMINAL. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE WORSE BEFORE
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT THE FLIGHT CATEGORY TO AT LEAST FLIRT WITH
LIFR CIGS PERIODICALLY. VISBY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...ESP WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT VISBY TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH PERIODS OF VFR AND IFR
POSSIBLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE INSTABILITY AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR SHRA AFTER 22Z.

ELSEWHERE...GREENVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREA TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO.
SOME SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY REASON THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TANKS
AFTER 09-10Z...AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS DEVELOPING
DOWNSLOPE (UP-VALLEY AT KAVL) WIND COULD RESULT IN LIFTING CIGS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE HAVE THEREFORE FEATURED SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT
THESE TERMINALS BY 10Z...BUT AT LEAST A TEMPO FOR IFR WILL BE
CARRIED THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...KAND/KHKY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS LIFTING/
SCATTERING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...MORE HEATING SPELLS MORE
INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR TSRA
AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z GIVE OR TAKE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       MED   77%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   74%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   61%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     LOW   58%
KHKY       MED   66%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   70%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 160224
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1024 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM...A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE LIGHT SHWRS HAVE SURVIVED TO
THE NC PIEDMONT AND EASTERN UPSTATE. SO POPS WERE TWEAKED UP IN
THOSE AREAS TO MID CHC. TO THE WEST...AS THE MID LVL SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTNS...THE BACK EDGE OF THE BETTER FORCING SHUD
PUSH THRU...ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER OFF. THE COMBINATION OF SPOTTY
RAINFALL AND SOME CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG.
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 800 PM...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...SHWRS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE
MTNS AND HEADING EAST. THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH INSTBY TO WORK WITH
EAST OF THE MTNS...SO I EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED...AND
PROBABLY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A CHALLENGING TAF FOR TONIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ARE
HEADING EAST TOWARD THE TERMINAL. THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTBY TO
KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING...SO I HAVE ABOUT A 30% CONFIDENCE THAT THEY
WILL IMPACT KCLT. WILL GO WITH A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS STARTING
AT 01Z. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN IS CIGS. A HOLE IN THE MVFR
STRATUS DECK OPENED UP JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KCLT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN. IN
FACT...AN IFR DECK MAY DEVELOP...AS THE SHOWERS HELP FURTHER MOISTEN
THE BL...AND LLVL WESTERLY FLOW TURNS BACK TO SW. I HAVE GONE WITH
LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL. I AM
NOT EXPECTING LIFR. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT A NW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW SHUD DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK...HELPING CIGS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHC FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA. HAVE A PROB30 FOR TUESDAY AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONCERNS TO KCLT. ONE TSTM CURRENTLY NW OF
KAND...OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY SHRA.
GUIDANCE MIXED ON CIG TRENDS...BUT THE MORE RELIABLE GUIDANCE (LIKE
THE LAMP) SHOW LOWERING CIGS TO IFR ACRS MOST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...HELPING
SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. MORE SUNSHINE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NW SHUD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
AFTN. SO HAVE PROB30 AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       MED   74%     MED   68%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       LOW   58%     LOW   59%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   73%     MED   65%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   75%     LOW   54%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   67%     LOW   45%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   67%     MED   67%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 152358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
758 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE SRN
APPALACIANS...SHWRS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE
MTNS AND HEADING EAST. THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH INSTBY TO WORK WITH
EAST OF THE MTNS...SO I EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED...AND
PROBABLY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A CHALLENGING TAF FOR TONIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ARE
HEADING EAST TOWARD THE TERMINAL. THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTBY TO
KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING...SO I HAVE ABOUT A 30% CONFIDENCE THAT THEY
WILL IMPACT KCLT. WILL GO WITH A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS STARTING
AT 01Z. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN IS CIGS. A HOLE IN THE MVFR
STRATUS DECK OPENED UP JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KCLT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN. IN
FACT...AN IFR DECK MAY DEVELOP...AS THE SHOWERS HELP FURTHER MOISTEN
THE BL...AND LLVL WESTERLY FLOW TURNS BACK TO SW. I HAVE GONE WITH
LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL. I AM
NOT EXPECTING LIFR. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT A NW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW SHUD DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK...HELPING CIGS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHC FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA. HAVE A PROB30 FOR TUESDAY AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONCERNS TO KCLT. ONE TSTM CURRENTLY NW OF
KAND...OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY SHRA.
GUIDANCE MIXED ON CIG TRENDS...BUT THE MORE RELIABLE GUIDANCE (LIKE
THE LAMP) SHOW LOWERING CIGS TO IFR ACRS MOST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...HELPING
SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. MORE SUNSHINE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NW SHUD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
AFTN. SO HAVE PROB30 AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH  82%     LOW   59%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     LOW   51%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     MED   65%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     MED   60%     MED   70%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     LOW   39%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  82%     LOW   57%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 152358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
758 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE SRN
APPALACIANS...SHWRS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE
MTNS AND HEADING EAST. THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH INSTBY TO WORK WITH
EAST OF THE MTNS...SO I EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED...AND
PROBABLY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A CHALLENGING TAF FOR TONIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ARE
HEADING EAST TOWARD THE TERMINAL. THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTBY TO
KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING...SO I HAVE ABOUT A 30% CONFIDENCE THAT THEY
WILL IMPACT KCLT. WILL GO WITH A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS STARTING
AT 01Z. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN IS CIGS. A HOLE IN THE MVFR
STRATUS DECK OPENED UP JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KCLT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN. IN
FACT...AN IFR DECK MAY DEVELOP...AS THE SHOWERS HELP FURTHER MOISTEN
THE BL...AND LLVL WESTERLY FLOW TURNS BACK TO SW. I HAVE GONE WITH
LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL. I AM
NOT EXPECTING LIFR. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT A NW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW SHUD DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK...HELPING CIGS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHC FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA. HAVE A PROB30 FOR TUESDAY AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONCERNS TO KCLT. ONE TSTM CURRENTLY NW OF
KAND...OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY SHRA.
GUIDANCE MIXED ON CIG TRENDS...BUT THE MORE RELIABLE GUIDANCE (LIKE
THE LAMP) SHOW LOWERING CIGS TO IFR ACRS MOST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...HELPING
SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. MORE SUNSHINE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NW SHUD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
AFTN. SO HAVE PROB30 AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH  82%     LOW   59%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     LOW   51%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     MED   65%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  82%     MED   60%     MED   70%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     LOW   39%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  82%     LOW   57%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 152141
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTN...LIKELY REACHING LOWER END VFR AFTER 20Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE TEMPO SHRA FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TOWARD EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE
CONTINUED AFTN CLOUD COVER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LOWER
CIGS...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FROM THE MTNS
MAKES THIS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH 18Z ON TUE WITH ACTIVATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE LIKELY DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT THAT SHRA COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP
SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 21Z TO 00Z THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH MOST SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE
MOVES EAST. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
TSRA...BUT ONLY KAND WILL GET A TEMPO FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY. THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL STEADILY FILL BACK IN
TONIGHT...BUT JUST AS IN THE CASE WITH KCLT...UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW
DECK IS HIGH GIVEN A WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT SETS UP. WILL
FEATURE PERSISTENCE INCLUDING IFR AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...MVFR AT
THE FOOTHILL SITES...AND THEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 18Z ON TUE.
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT MENTION AFTER 18Z TUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     MED   70%     MED   61%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     MED   73%     LOW   53%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     MED   63%     MED   61%     MED   70%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     LOW   55%     LOW   50%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     MED   74%     MED   63%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  83%     MED   70%     LOW   57%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 152141
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL NC MTNS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS AREA IS ALSO THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS ANY SBCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS STILL STABLE...AS STRATUS IS STUBBORN TO SCATTER
OUT...DESPITE INCREASING WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. I UPDATED POPS AND
TEMPS TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE NC MTNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN
THE LWR-MID 70S HEADING INTO THE EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTN...LIKELY REACHING LOWER END VFR AFTER 20Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE TEMPO SHRA FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TOWARD EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE
CONTINUED AFTN CLOUD COVER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LOWER
CIGS...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FROM THE MTNS
MAKES THIS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH 18Z ON TUE WITH ACTIVATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE LIKELY DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT THAT SHRA COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP
SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 21Z TO 00Z THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH MOST SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE
MOVES EAST. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
TSRA...BUT ONLY KAND WILL GET A TEMPO FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY. THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL STEADILY FILL BACK IN
TONIGHT...BUT JUST AS IN THE CASE WITH KCLT...UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW
DECK IS HIGH GIVEN A WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT SETS UP. WILL
FEATURE PERSISTENCE INCLUDING IFR AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...MVFR AT
THE FOOTHILL SITES...AND THEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 18Z ON TUE.
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT MENTION AFTER 18Z TUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     MED   70%     MED   61%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     MED   73%     LOW   53%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     MED   63%     MED   61%     MED   70%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     LOW   55%     LOW   50%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     MED   74%     MED   63%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  83%     MED   70%     LOW   57%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 151826
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTN...LIKELY REACHING LOWER END VFR AFTER 20Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE TEMPO SHRA FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TOWARD EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE
CONTINUED AFTN CLOUD COVER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LOWER
CIGS...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FROM THE MTNS
MAKES THIS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH 18Z ON TUE WITH ACTIVATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE LIKELY DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT THAT SHRA COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP
SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 21Z TO 00Z THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH MOST SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE
MOVES EAST. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
TSRA...BUT ONLY KAND WILL GET A TEMPO FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY. THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL STEADILY FILL BACK IN
TONIGHT...BUT JUST AS IN THE CASE WITH KCLT...UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW
DECK IS HIGH GIVEN A WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT SETS UP. WILL
FEATURE PERSISTENCE INCLUDING IFR AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...MVFR AT
THE FOOTHILL SITES...AND THEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 18Z ON TUE.
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT MENTION AFTER 18Z TUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     MED   78%     MED   69%     MED   71%
KGSP       MED   72%     MED   79%     MED   62%     MED   68%
KAVL       MED   78%     MED   64%     MED   64%     LOW   57%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     MED   72%     LOW   49%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     MED   79%     MED   70%     MED   75%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   77%     MED   69%     MED   68%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 151826
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT...RADARS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN AS A STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE LOWER CLOUDS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS THERE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE MOST
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVE DAMPENED EXPECTATION A BIT IN
THIS REGARD.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS
A BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING THE
BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROVIDES
FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
BECOME STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE CURRENT DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z WED SHOULD
BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
OF THE AREA BY 06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY
06Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM`S
ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS ALMOST NON-EXISTANT FOR WED. THE GFS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE
MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER
LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. USING A MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE NE FROM ARIZONA
THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR COLD AIR
WEDGE INDUCED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PARTLY REMNANT TO ODILE
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO AND MISS VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AT THIS TIME FOR MONDAY. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 INDICATED ON THE
GFS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY LITTLE FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
CONVECTION. DRYING OUT AND TURNING COOLER MONDAY NIGHT. WE START
NEXT WEEK WITH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTN...LIKELY REACHING LOWER END VFR AFTER 20Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE TEMPO SHRA FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TOWARD EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE
CONTINUED AFTN CLOUD COVER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LOWER
CIGS...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FROM THE MTNS
MAKES THIS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH 18Z ON TUE WITH ACTIVATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE LIKELY DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT THAT SHRA COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP
SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 21Z TO 00Z THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH MOST SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE
MOVES EAST. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
TSRA...BUT ONLY KAND WILL GET A TEMPO FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY. THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL STEADILY FILL BACK IN
TONIGHT...BUT JUST AS IN THE CASE WITH KCLT...UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW
DECK IS HIGH GIVEN A WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT SETS UP. WILL
FEATURE PERSISTENCE INCLUDING IFR AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...MVFR AT
THE FOOTHILL SITES...AND THEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 18Z ON TUE.
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT MENTION AFTER 18Z TUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     MED   78%     MED   69%     MED   71%
KGSP       MED   72%     MED   79%     MED   62%     MED   68%
KAVL       MED   78%     MED   64%     MED   64%     LOW   57%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     MED   72%     LOW   49%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     MED   79%     MED   70%     MED   75%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   77%     MED   69%     MED   68%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 151754
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...RADARS ARE FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTN AS A FAIRLY STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN TN EARLY THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE
LOWER CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING SHOULD ARRIVE...HOWEVER...IN THE
FORM OF UPPER LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING
THE FORECAST AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT
WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS
THERE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...BUT PERHAPS A
BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING
THE BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000
J/KG ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE
PROVIDES FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO ALLOW SOME TSRA TO BECOME
STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE NEW DAY 2 SPC HAS PLACED THE
ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS APPROPRIATE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSS THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z SHOULD BE
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SHOULD MOVE SE OF THE AREA BY
06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY 06Z. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INT HE WAKE
OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER ACROSS THE REGION
BEHIND TH FRONT THAN THE GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS
ALMOST NON-EXISTANT. THE GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER
TRANSIETN UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. USING A MODEL BLEND HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOEMS FALL WILL BE LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
THAT HIGH PRESSURE WIL REMAIN NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE
MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISIOLATED
SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...AN INITIALLY SIMPLE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN
TROUGH PATTERN THURSDAY WILL BECOME MORE COMPLEX OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 15/00Z GFS AND 14/12Z EC AS TO
ITS EVOLUTION. THE ERN TROUGH PROGRESSES ENOUGH TO ALLOW REAL COLD
AIR DAMMING TO FORM BY FRI MRNG...REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
FOR THE REGION AND SUPPORTING A DRY FCST THRU MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AS THE PARENT
HIGH IS PUSHED OFFSHORE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INITIATES RETURN FLOW
SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE WEDGE AND ALLOWING A BRIEF WARMUP. THAT LOW
DOES THEN BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TO START THE NEW
WEEK. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE FRONT AS IT DEVELOPS A SECONDARY
SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE 15/00Z EC JUST ARRIVED STILL FAVORING THE
PREVIOUS RUN/S TRACK OF THE CANADIAN LOW...BUT AMPLIFIES THE UPPER
TROUGH SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS BACKS UP A STRONGER FROPA FOR EARLY
MONDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTN...LIKELY REACHING LOWER END VFR AFTER 20Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE TEMPO SHRA FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TOWARD EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE
DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LOWER CIGS...MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FROM THE MTNS MAKES
THIS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH 18Z ON TUE WITH ACTIVATION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY
DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT THAT SHRA COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP
FROM THE WEST WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 21Z TO 00Z THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSRA...BUT ONLY KAND WILL GET A TEMPO
FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY. THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL STEADILY
FILL BACK IN TONIGHT...BUT JUST AS IN THE CASE WITH
KCLT...UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW DECK IS HIGH GIVEN A WEAK WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT SETS UP. WILL FEATURE PERSISTENCE INCLUDING IFR
AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...MVFR AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...AND THEN SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 18Z ON TUE. WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT MENTION
AFTER 18Z TUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     MED   78%     MED   69%     MED   71%
KGSP       MED   72%     MED   79%     MED   62%     MED   68%
KAVL       MED   78%     MED   64%     MED   64%     LOW   57%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     MED   72%     LOW   49%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     MED   79%     MED   70%     MED   75%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   77%     MED   69%     MED   68%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 151754
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...RADARS ARE FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTN AS A FAIRLY STABLE SHALLOW COOL SFC LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN TN EARLY THIS AFTN. IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ATOP THE
LOWER CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT LATE
DAY INSTABILITY. BETTER FORCING SHOULD ARRIVE...HOWEVER...IN THE
FORM OF UPPER LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER DPVA TRAVERSING
THE FORECAST AREA CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL INTERACT
WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN SRN SECTIONS TO REQUIRE THE BEST CHC POPS
THERE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING.

A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...BUT MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERMIT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS...BUT PERHAPS A
BIT LESS SOLID THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE DEVELOPING WEAK WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL TRIGGERING DURING
THE BEST HEATING PERIOD TUE AFTN. SB CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000
J/KG ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE
PROVIDES FOR MORE SCATTERING. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT SFC TO 3 KM VALUES COULD BUBBLE UP BRIEFLY TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER CIRCA 21Z. IN ADDITION...A POOL OF 6+ DEG C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TO ALLOW SOME TSRA TO BECOME
STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. THE NEW DAY 2 SPC HAS PLACED THE
ENTIRE AREA IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK...AND THIS SEEMS APPROPRIATE
ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE CROSS THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT AT 00Z SHOULD BE
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SHOULD MOVE SE OF THE AREA BY
06Z. SOME ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AND THEY ALSO SHOULD MOVE OUT THE AREA BY 06Z. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INT HE WAKE
OF THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER ACROSS THE REGION
BEHIND TH FRONT THAN THE GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED QPF RESPONSE IS
ALMOST NON-EXISTANT. THE GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MORE MOIST. THE GFS USES ANOTHER
TRANSIETN UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. USING A MODEL BLEND HIGHLIGHTS THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT WITH CHANCE POPS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOEMS FALL WILL BE LIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
THAT HIGH PRESSURE WIL REMAIN NOSED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE
MODELS FORECAST ESSENTIALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISIOLATED
SHOWERS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GENERALLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...AN INITIALLY SIMPLE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN
TROUGH PATTERN THURSDAY WILL BECOME MORE COMPLEX OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 15/00Z GFS AND 14/12Z EC AS TO
ITS EVOLUTION. THE ERN TROUGH PROGRESSES ENOUGH TO ALLOW REAL COLD
AIR DAMMING TO FORM BY FRI MRNG...REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
FOR THE REGION AND SUPPORTING A DRY FCST THRU MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AS THE PARENT
HIGH IS PUSHED OFFSHORE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INITIATES RETURN FLOW
SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE WEDGE AND ALLOWING A BRIEF WARMUP. THAT LOW
DOES THEN BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TO START THE NEW
WEEK. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE FRONT AS IT DEVELOPS A SECONDARY
SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE 15/00Z EC JUST ARRIVED STILL FAVORING THE
PREVIOUS RUN/S TRACK OF THE CANADIAN LOW...BUT AMPLIFIES THE UPPER
TROUGH SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS BACKS UP A STRONGER FROPA FOR EARLY
MONDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTN...LIKELY REACHING LOWER END VFR AFTER 20Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE TEMPO SHRA FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TOWARD EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE
DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE LOWER CIGS...MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FROM THE MTNS MAKES
THIS A BIT LESS CERTAIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH 18Z ON TUE WITH ACTIVATION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY
DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO SCATTER
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT THAT SHRA COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP
FROM THE WEST WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 21Z TO 00Z THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSRA...BUT ONLY KAND WILL GET A TEMPO
FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY. THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL STEADILY
FILL BACK IN TONIGHT...BUT JUST AS IN THE CASE WITH
KCLT...UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW DECK IS HIGH GIVEN A WEAK WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT SETS UP. WILL FEATURE PERSISTENCE INCLUDING IFR
AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...MVFR AT THE FOOTHILL SITES...AND THEN SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 18Z ON TUE. WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP THREAT MENTION
AFTER 18Z TUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     MED   78%     MED   69%     MED   71%
KGSP       MED   72%     MED   79%     MED   62%     MED   68%
KAVL       MED   78%     MED   64%     MED   64%     LOW   57%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     MED   72%     LOW   49%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     MED   79%     MED   70%     MED   75%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   77%     MED   69%     MED   68%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 151510
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1110 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EST...SHOWERS IN VERY WEAK UPGLIDE PERSIST ACROSS THE
EXTREME SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND COULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STEADILY BECOME
MORE S/SW AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM WAVE ADVANCING THROUGH THE MID/LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. IT IS THIS UPSTREAM FEATURE THAT SHOULD
PROVIDE THE BETTER FORCING FOR IMPROVED SHOWER OR TSTM
COVERAGE...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTN OR
EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN
THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN
FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH ANY HEATING. FORECAST TEMPS STILL LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MOS VALUES. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR CURRENT
TEMP TRENDS WERE NEEDED.

COVERAGE SHOULD BE BEST IN SW SECTIONS WITH THE ADVANCING SRN STREAM
WAVE GIVEN THE JUXTAPOSITION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LATE DAY
INSTABILITY. WHILE SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT RESPECTABLE FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PROFILES WILL BE TOO MOIST
AND INSTABILITY TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT
PROGRESSIVE CELL MOVEMENT...SO EVEN THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD
THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CWA BY DAYBREAK...
SUPPORTING AT LEAST LOW POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE
CONUS THRU THE MIDWEEK EVENTUALLY LEADING TO DEEPER TROUGHING OVER
THE EAST. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE
PLAINS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS HIGH WILL
WORK THROUGH OUR CWFA TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTING ACRS THE MTNS BY WED AND PRODUCING WEDGELIKE EASTERLY FLOW
INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE COLUMN AT
ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...WITH INSTABILITY THE MAIN JUSTIFICATION
FOR POPS. THOUGH POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...THE
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS SUGGESTED TO FORCE A LEE TROUGH
TUE AFTN...AND BRING EDDIES ACRS THE FA BOTH TUE AND WED NIGHTS.
CONTINUOUS LOW POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED WITH MINOR INCREASES WHEN
ENHANCED FORCING IS PRESENT. THE COOLER AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
FILTER IN...AND ESP WITH DOWNSLOPING TUE MAX TEMPS WILL RISE A TAD
ABOVE CLIMO. WED MAXES AND WED NIGHT MINS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
BELOW CLIMO WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS MUCH MORE INSTABILITY TUE
AFTN THAN THE GFS BUT KEEPS SFC PARCELS SLIGHTLY CAPPED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED POOR LAPSE RATES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER. THOUGH ONLY
ISOLATED CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO FORM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN LATELY. ACTIVITY
FORMING DURING PEAK HEATING MAY POSE A SMALL SEVERE RISK IF IT GROWS
TALL ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...AN INITIALLY SIMPLE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN
TROUGH PATTERN THURSDAY WILL BECOME MORE COMPLEX OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 15/00Z GFS AND 14/12Z EC AS TO
ITS EVOLUTION. THE ERN TROUGH PROGRESSES ENOUGH TO ALLOW REAL COLD
AIR DAMMING TO FORM BY FRI MRNG...REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
FOR THE REGION AND SUPPORTING A DRY FCST THRU MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AS THE PARENT
HIGH IS PUSHED OFFSHORE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INITIATES RETURN FLOW
SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE WEDGE AND ALLOWING A BRIEF WARMUP. THAT LOW
DOES THEN BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TO START THE NEW
WEEK. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE FRONT AS IT DEVELOPS A SECONDARY
SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE 15/00Z EC JUST ARRIVED STILL FAVORING THE
PREVIOUS RUN/S TRACK OF THE CANADIAN LOW...BUT AMPLIFIES THE UPPER
TROUGH SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS BACKS UP A STRONGER FROPA FOR EARLY
MONDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS WILL BE PERSISTENT IN THE MVFR RANGE INTO EARLY AFTN
BEFORE STEADILY IMPROVING. STILL EXPECT NOTHING BETTER THAN LOW END
VFR THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS AS SRLY FLOW AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALLOWS CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN WITH ANY BREAKS THROUGH THE
DAY. WILL TRANSITION THE PROB30 FOR SHRA TO TEMPO GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. LGT/VRBL WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT SW BY MID
AFTERNOON. A PRE/FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...TURNING THE FLOW TO W/NW. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...MAKING FOR A PROBLEMATIC
CIG/VSBY FORECAST LATE TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO BRING THE LOW MVFR
CIGS BACK LATE TONIGHT...BUT FLT CONDITIONS COULD BE WORSE THAN
THAT.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL WILL SEE STEADY SCATTERING IN THE IFR CIGS...BUT
CIGS MAY QUICKLY FILL BACK IN WITH HEATING EARLY THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE...MOST OTHER SITES REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE THIS MORNING.
WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY AFTN BEFORE
LIFTING/SCATTERING TO MVFR. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. VCTS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED AT KAVL BY 19Z...WITH TEMPO TSRA AFTER 22Z. WILL FEATURE
MAINLY VCTS AT THE FOOTHILL SITES TOWARD EVENING...EXCEPT JUST
SHOWERS AT KHKY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR. A PRE/FRONTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...TURNING THE LOW TO
W/NW. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING...MAKING FOR A PROBLEMATIC CIG/VSBY FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO BRING THE LOW MVFR CIGS BACK LATE
TONIGHT...BUT FLT CONDITIONS COULD BE WORSE THAN THAT.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER TUE
INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING MAY OR MAY NOT RESULT IN FLT
RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     MED   76%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   71%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   63%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG/JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 151510
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1110 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EST...SHOWERS IN VERY WEAK UPGLIDE PERSIST ACROSS THE
EXTREME SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND COULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STEADILY BECOME
MORE S/SW AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM WAVE ADVANCING THROUGH THE MID/LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. IT IS THIS UPSTREAM FEATURE THAT SHOULD
PROVIDE THE BETTER FORCING FOR IMPROVED SHOWER OR TSTM
COVERAGE...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTN OR
EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN
THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN
FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH ANY HEATING. FORECAST TEMPS STILL LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER BIAS CORRECTED MOS VALUES. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR CURRENT
TEMP TRENDS WERE NEEDED.

COVERAGE SHOULD BE BEST IN SW SECTIONS WITH THE ADVANCING SRN STREAM
WAVE GIVEN THE JUXTAPOSITION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LATE DAY
INSTABILITY. WHILE SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT RESPECTABLE FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PROFILES WILL BE TOO MOIST
AND INSTABILITY TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT
PROGRESSIVE CELL MOVEMENT...SO EVEN THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD
THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CWA BY DAYBREAK...
SUPPORTING AT LEAST LOW POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE
CONUS THRU THE MIDWEEK EVENTUALLY LEADING TO DEEPER TROUGHING OVER
THE EAST. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE
PLAINS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS HIGH WILL
WORK THROUGH OUR CWFA TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTING ACRS THE MTNS BY WED AND PRODUCING WEDGELIKE EASTERLY FLOW
INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE COLUMN AT
ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...WITH INSTABILITY THE MAIN JUSTIFICATION
FOR POPS. THOUGH POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...THE
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS SUGGESTED TO FORCE A LEE TROUGH
TUE AFTN...AND BRING EDDIES ACRS THE FA BOTH TUE AND WED NIGHTS.
CONTINUOUS LOW POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED WITH MINOR INCREASES WHEN
ENHANCED FORCING IS PRESENT. THE COOLER AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
FILTER IN...AND ESP WITH DOWNSLOPING TUE MAX TEMPS WILL RISE A TAD
ABOVE CLIMO. WED MAXES AND WED NIGHT MINS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
BELOW CLIMO WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS MUCH MORE INSTABILITY TUE
AFTN THAN THE GFS BUT KEEPS SFC PARCELS SLIGHTLY CAPPED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED POOR LAPSE RATES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER. THOUGH ONLY
ISOLATED CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO FORM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN LATELY. ACTIVITY
FORMING DURING PEAK HEATING MAY POSE A SMALL SEVERE RISK IF IT GROWS
TALL ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...AN INITIALLY SIMPLE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN
TROUGH PATTERN THURSDAY WILL BECOME MORE COMPLEX OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 15/00Z GFS AND 14/12Z EC AS TO
ITS EVOLUTION. THE ERN TROUGH PROGRESSES ENOUGH TO ALLOW REAL COLD
AIR DAMMING TO FORM BY FRI MRNG...REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
FOR THE REGION AND SUPPORTING A DRY FCST THRU MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AS THE PARENT
HIGH IS PUSHED OFFSHORE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INITIATES RETURN FLOW
SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE WEDGE AND ALLOWING A BRIEF WARMUP. THAT LOW
DOES THEN BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TO START THE NEW
WEEK. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE FRONT AS IT DEVELOPS A SECONDARY
SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE 15/00Z EC JUST ARRIVED STILL FAVORING THE
PREVIOUS RUN/S TRACK OF THE CANADIAN LOW...BUT AMPLIFIES THE UPPER
TROUGH SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS BACKS UP A STRONGER FROPA FOR EARLY
MONDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS WILL BE PERSISTENT IN THE MVFR RANGE INTO EARLY AFTN
BEFORE STEADILY IMPROVING. STILL EXPECT NOTHING BETTER THAN LOW END
VFR THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS AS SRLY FLOW AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALLOWS CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN WITH ANY BREAKS THROUGH THE
DAY. WILL TRANSITION THE PROB30 FOR SHRA TO TEMPO GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. LGT/VRBL WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT SW BY MID
AFTERNOON. A PRE/FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...TURNING THE FLOW TO W/NW. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...MAKING FOR A PROBLEMATIC
CIG/VSBY FORECAST LATE TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO BRING THE LOW MVFR
CIGS BACK LATE TONIGHT...BUT FLT CONDITIONS COULD BE WORSE THAN
THAT.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL WILL SEE STEADY SCATTERING IN THE IFR CIGS...BUT
CIGS MAY QUICKLY FILL BACK IN WITH HEATING EARLY THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE...MOST OTHER SITES REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE THIS MORNING.
WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY AFTN BEFORE
LIFTING/SCATTERING TO MVFR. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. VCTS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED AT KAVL BY 19Z...WITH TEMPO TSRA AFTER 22Z. WILL FEATURE
MAINLY VCTS AT THE FOOTHILL SITES TOWARD EVENING...EXCEPT JUST
SHOWERS AT KHKY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR. A PRE/FRONTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...TURNING THE LOW TO
W/NW. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING...MAKING FOR A PROBLEMATIC CIG/VSBY FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO BRING THE LOW MVFR CIGS BACK LATE
TONIGHT...BUT FLT CONDITIONS COULD BE WORSE THAN THAT.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER TUE
INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING MAY OR MAY NOT RESULT IN FLT
RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     MED   76%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   71%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   63%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG/JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 151135
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
735 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM...A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WITHIN MOIST AXIS/WEAK
UPGLIDE REGIME NEAR THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
LIFT WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE.

AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE COAST TODAY
(ESSENTIALLY ENDING THE PERIOD OF NE FLOW)...AND THE FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE LAYER TURNS TO LIGHT WESTERLY...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND
POSSIBLY SCATTER AT TIMES LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND TO 75-80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
STILL A FEW DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO. THE ADDITIONAL HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE MODESTLY THIS AFTERNOON.
COMBINED WITH PWATS THAT REMAIN QUITE JUICY FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...ISLD TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS KICK A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN
AS A SUBTLE FEATURE IN WV IMAGERY OVER NW TEXAS...OVER THE SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY/NORTH GA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD...AND/OR INITIATE NEW CONVECTION OVER OUR
AREA BY EVENING...AND THIS IS WHEN POPS REACH A NADIR. THE HIGHEST
POPS...GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE UPSTATE AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WHICH SHOULD SEE THE MOST FAVORABLE
JUXTAPOSITION OF DEEP MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/FORCING. WHILE SHEAR WILL
BE SOMEWHAT RESPECTABLE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT PROFILES WILL BE TOO MOIST AND INSTABILITY TOO LIMITED TO
SUPPORT MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT PROGRESSIVE CELL
MOVEMENT...SO EVEN THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOW.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CWA BY DAYBREAK...
SUPPORTING AT LEAST LOW POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE
CONUS THRU THE MIDWEEK EVENTUALLY LEADING TO DEEPER TROUGHING OVER
THE EAST. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE
PLAINS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS HIGH WILL
WORK THROUGH OUR CWFA TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTING ACRS THE MTNS BY WED AND PRODUCING WEDGELIKE EASTERLY FLOW
INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE COLUMN AT
ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...WITH INSTABILITY THE MAIN JUSTIFICATION
FOR POPS. THOUGH POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...THE
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS SUGGESTED TO FORCE A LEE TROUGH
TUE AFTN...AND BRING EDDIES ACRS THE FA BOTH TUE AND WED NIGHTS.
CONTINUOUS LOW POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED WITH MINOR INCREASES WHEN
ENHANCED FORCING IS PRESENT. THE COOLER AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
FILTER IN...AND ESP WITH DOWNSLOPING TUE MAX TEMPS WILL RISE A TAD
ABOVE CLIMO. WED MAXES AND WED NIGHT MINS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
BELOW CLIMO WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS MUCH MORE INSTABILITY TUE
AFTN THAN THE GFS BUT KEEPS SFC PARCELS SLIGHTLY CAPPED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED POOR LAPSE RATES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER. THOUGH ONLY
ISOLATED CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO FORM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN LATELY. ACTIVITY
FORMING DURING PEAK HEATING MAY POSE A SMALL SEVERE RISK IF IT GROWS
TALL ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...AN INITIALLY SIMPLE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN
TROUGH PATTERN THURSDAY WILL BECOME MORE COMPLEX OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 15/00Z GFS AND 14/12Z EC AS TO
ITS EVOLUTION. THE ERN TROUGH PROGRESSES ENOUGH TO ALLOW REAL COLD
AIR DAMMING TO FORM BY FRI MRNG...REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
FOR THE REGION AND SUPPORTING A DRY FCST THRU MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AS THE PARENT
HIGH IS PUSHED OFFSHORE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INITIATES RETURN FLOW
SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE WEDGE AND ALLOWING A BRIEF WARMUP. THAT LOW
DOES THEN BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TO START THE NEW
WEEK. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE FRONT AS IT DEVELOPS A SECONDARY
SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE 15/00Z EC JUST ARRIVED STILL FAVORING THE
PREVIOUS RUN/S TRACK OF THE CANADIAN LOW...BUT AMPLIFIES THE UPPER
TROUGH SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS BACKS UP A STRONGER FROPA FOR EARLY
MONDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS REMAIN IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE THIS MORNING. CANNOT AT
ALL RULE OUT A BRIEF EXCURSION TO IFR...BUT MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
SHOT AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN LMVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY SCATTER FROM TIME TO TIME. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SHRA. A PROB30 HAS BEE INTRODUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. LGT/VRBL WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT SW BY MID-AFTERNOON. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
TURNING THE LOW TO W/NW. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING...MAKING FOR A PROBLEMATIC CIG/VISBY FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO BRING THE LOW MVFR CIGS BACK LATE
TONIGHT...BUT FLT CONDITIONS COULD BE WORSE THAN THAT.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE...MOST OTHER SITES REMAIN IN THE LOW MVFR
RANGE THIS MORNING. CANNOT AT ALL RULE OUT A BRIEF EXCURSION TO IFR
AT THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS...BUT MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS SHOT AT
THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN LMVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. VCTS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED AT KAVL BY
19Z...WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES FROM ABOUT EARLY EVENING
THROUGH LATE EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT... TURNING THE LOW TO W/NW. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...MAKING FOR A
PROBLEMATIC CIG/VISBY FORECAST LATE TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO BRING THE
LOW MVFR CIGS BACK LATE TONIGHT...BUT FLT CONDITIONS COULD BE WORSE
THAN THAT.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER TUE
INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING MAY OR MAY NOT RESULT IN FLT
RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  81%
KAVL       MED   72%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     MED   76%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%
KGMU       HIGH  84%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     MED   71%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 151135
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
735 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM...A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WITHIN MOIST AXIS/WEAK
UPGLIDE REGIME NEAR THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
LIFT WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE.

AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE COAST TODAY
(ESSENTIALLY ENDING THE PERIOD OF NE FLOW)...AND THE FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE LAYER TURNS TO LIGHT WESTERLY...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND
POSSIBLY SCATTER AT TIMES LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND TO 75-80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
STILL A FEW DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO. THE ADDITIONAL HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE MODESTLY THIS AFTERNOON.
COMBINED WITH PWATS THAT REMAIN QUITE JUICY FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...ISLD TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS KICK A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN
AS A SUBTLE FEATURE IN WV IMAGERY OVER NW TEXAS...OVER THE SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY/NORTH GA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD...AND/OR INITIATE NEW CONVECTION OVER OUR
AREA BY EVENING...AND THIS IS WHEN POPS REACH A NADIR. THE HIGHEST
POPS...GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE UPSTATE AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WHICH SHOULD SEE THE MOST FAVORABLE
JUXTAPOSITION OF DEEP MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/FORCING. WHILE SHEAR WILL
BE SOMEWHAT RESPECTABLE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT PROFILES WILL BE TOO MOIST AND INSTABILITY TOO LIMITED TO
SUPPORT MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT PROGRESSIVE CELL
MOVEMENT...SO EVEN THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOW.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CWA BY DAYBREAK...
SUPPORTING AT LEAST LOW POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE
CONUS THRU THE MIDWEEK EVENTUALLY LEADING TO DEEPER TROUGHING OVER
THE EAST. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE
PLAINS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS HIGH WILL
WORK THROUGH OUR CWFA TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTING ACRS THE MTNS BY WED AND PRODUCING WEDGELIKE EASTERLY FLOW
INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE COLUMN AT
ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...WITH INSTABILITY THE MAIN JUSTIFICATION
FOR POPS. THOUGH POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...THE
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS SUGGESTED TO FORCE A LEE TROUGH
TUE AFTN...AND BRING EDDIES ACRS THE FA BOTH TUE AND WED NIGHTS.
CONTINUOUS LOW POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED WITH MINOR INCREASES WHEN
ENHANCED FORCING IS PRESENT. THE COOLER AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
FILTER IN...AND ESP WITH DOWNSLOPING TUE MAX TEMPS WILL RISE A TAD
ABOVE CLIMO. WED MAXES AND WED NIGHT MINS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
BELOW CLIMO WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS MUCH MORE INSTABILITY TUE
AFTN THAN THE GFS BUT KEEPS SFC PARCELS SLIGHTLY CAPPED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED POOR LAPSE RATES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER. THOUGH ONLY
ISOLATED CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO FORM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN LATELY. ACTIVITY
FORMING DURING PEAK HEATING MAY POSE A SMALL SEVERE RISK IF IT GROWS
TALL ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...AN INITIALLY SIMPLE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN
TROUGH PATTERN THURSDAY WILL BECOME MORE COMPLEX OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 15/00Z GFS AND 14/12Z EC AS TO
ITS EVOLUTION. THE ERN TROUGH PROGRESSES ENOUGH TO ALLOW REAL COLD
AIR DAMMING TO FORM BY FRI MRNG...REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
FOR THE REGION AND SUPPORTING A DRY FCST THRU MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AS THE PARENT
HIGH IS PUSHED OFFSHORE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INITIATES RETURN FLOW
SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE WEDGE AND ALLOWING A BRIEF WARMUP. THAT LOW
DOES THEN BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TO START THE NEW
WEEK. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE FRONT AS IT DEVELOPS A SECONDARY
SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE 15/00Z EC JUST ARRIVED STILL FAVORING THE
PREVIOUS RUN/S TRACK OF THE CANADIAN LOW...BUT AMPLIFIES THE UPPER
TROUGH SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS BACKS UP A STRONGER FROPA FOR EARLY
MONDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS REMAIN IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE THIS MORNING. CANNOT AT
ALL RULE OUT A BRIEF EXCURSION TO IFR...BUT MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
SHOT AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN LMVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY SCATTER FROM TIME TO TIME. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SHRA. A PROB30 HAS BEE INTRODUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. LGT/VRBL WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT SW BY MID-AFTERNOON. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
TURNING THE LOW TO W/NW. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING...MAKING FOR A PROBLEMATIC CIG/VISBY FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO BRING THE LOW MVFR CIGS BACK LATE
TONIGHT...BUT FLT CONDITIONS COULD BE WORSE THAN THAT.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE...MOST OTHER SITES REMAIN IN THE LOW MVFR
RANGE THIS MORNING. CANNOT AT ALL RULE OUT A BRIEF EXCURSION TO IFR
AT THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS...BUT MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS SHOT AT
THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN LMVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. VCTS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED AT KAVL BY
19Z...WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES FROM ABOUT EARLY EVENING
THROUGH LATE EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT... TURNING THE LOW TO W/NW. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...MAKING FOR A
PROBLEMATIC CIG/VISBY FORECAST LATE TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO BRING THE
LOW MVFR CIGS BACK LATE TONIGHT...BUT FLT CONDITIONS COULD BE WORSE
THAN THAT.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER TUE
INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR DAMMING MAY OR MAY NOT RESULT IN FLT
RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  81%
KAVL       MED   72%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     MED   76%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%
KGMU       HIGH  84%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     MED   71%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 150730
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE COAST TODAY
(ESSENTIALLY ENDING THE PERIOD OF NE FLOW)...AND THE FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE LAYER TURNS TO LIGHT WESTERLY...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND
POSSIBLY SCATTER AT TIMES LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND TO 75-80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
STILL A FEW DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO. THE ADDITIONAL HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE MODESTLY THIS AFTERNOON.
COMBINED WITH PWATS THAT REMAIN QUITE JUICY FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...ISLD TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS KICK A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN
AS A SUBTLE FEATURE IN WV IMAGERY OVER NW TEXAS...OVER THE SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY/NORTH GA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD...AND/OR INITIATE NEW CONVECTION OVER OUR
AREA BY EVENING...AND THIS IS WHEN POPS REACH A NADIR. THE HIGHEST
POPS...GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE UPSTATE AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WHICH SHOULD SEE THE MOST FAVORABLE
JUXTAPOSITION OF DEEP MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/FORCING. WHILE SHEAR WILL
BE SOMEWHAT RESPECTABLE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT PROFILES WILL BE TOO MOIST AND INSTABILITY TOO LIMITED TO
SUPPORT MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT PROGRESSIVE CELL
MOVEMENT...SO EVEN THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOW.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CWA BY DAYBREAK...
SUPPORTING AT LEAST LOW POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE
CONUS THRU THE MIDWEEK EVENTUALLY LEADING TO DEEPER TROUGHING OVER
THE EAST. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE
PLAINS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS HIGH WILL
WORK THROUGH OUR CWFA TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTING ACRS THE MTNS BY WED AND PRODUCING WEDGELIKE EASTERLY FLOW
INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE COLUMN AT
ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...WITH INSTABILITY THE MAIN JUSTIFICATION
FOR POPS. THOUGH POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...THE
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS SUGGESTED TO FORCE A LEE TROUGH
TUE AFTN...AND BRING EDDIES ACRS THE FA BOTH TUE AND WED NIGHTS.
CONTINUOUS LOW POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED WITH MINOR INCREASES WHEN
ENHANCED FORCING IS PRESENT. THE COOLER AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
FILTER IN...AND ESP WITH DOWNSLOPING TUE MAX TEMPS WILL RISE A TAD
ABOVE CLIMO. WED MAXES AND WED NIGHT MINS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
BELOW CLIMO WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS MUCH MORE INSTABILITY TUE
AFTN THAN THE GFS BUT KEEPS SFC PARCELS SLIGHTLY CAPPED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED POOR LAPSE RATES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER. THOUGH ONLY
ISOLATED CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO FORM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN LATELY. ACTIVITY
FORMING DURING PEAK HEATING MAY POSE A SMALL SEVERE RISK IF IT GROWS
TALL ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...AN INITIALLY SIMPLE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN
TROUGH PATTERN THURSDAY WILL BECOME MORE COMPLEX OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 15/00Z GFS AND 14/12Z EC AS TO
ITS EVOLUTION. THE ERN TROUGH PROGRESSES ENOUGH TO ALLOW REAL COLD
AIR DAMMING TO FORM BY FRI MRNG...REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
FOR THE REGION AND SUPPORTING A DRY FCST THRU MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AS THE PARENT
HIGH IS PUSHED OFFSHORE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INITIATES RETURN FLOW
SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE WEDGE AND ALLOWING A BRIEF WARMUP. THAT LOW
DOES THEN BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TO START THE NEW
WEEK. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE FRONT AS IT DEVELOPS A SECONDARY
SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE 15/00Z EC JUST ARRIVED STILL FAVORING THE
PREVIOUS RUN/S TRACK OF THE CANADIAN LOW...BUT AMPLIFIES THE UPPER
TROUGH SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS BACKS UP A STRONGER FROPA FOR EARLY
MONDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN SURROUNDS JUST HOW MUCH CIGS WILL
LOWER THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE SOLIDLY MVFR AS OF 0530Z...BUT NE
FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INDICATES SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS
FILTERING INTO THE REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND...NEAR TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE SW
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHICH WOULD STOP ANY DRY AIR INFILTRATION AND
POSSIBLY ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR. IN FACT...I THINK THERE/S
ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO INCLUDE A TEMPO BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.
SOME BR IN THE 5-6SM RANGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CIGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY SCATTER FROM
TIME TO TIME. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SHRA. A PROB30 HAS BEE INTRODUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LGT/VRBL
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT SW BY MID-AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...OUR BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IS INSISTENT IN DEVELOPING LIFR (AT KAVL) AND IFR (ELSEWHERE)
CIGS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND HAS PLENTY OF SUPPORT
FROM OTHER RELIABLE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN
SLOWLY LIFTING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE IS ALSO
INDICATION THAT THE FLOW WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/SW ABOVE THE SURFACE
(ALBEIT REMAINING LIGHT) TOWARD DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR CIGS
LOWERING MUCH FURTHER. NEVERTHELESS...WE ARE STARTING TO SEE PATCHY
FEW/SCT IFR CLOUDS SHOWING UP ON AREA METARS...SO TEMPOS FOR IFR
HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
KHKY SEES THE SHORTEST TEMPO (2 HOURS) DUE TO STRONGER EFFECTS FROM
DOWNSLOPING. MEANWHILE...KAVL IS ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM
VARY QUITE A BIT...ES ONCE THE W/SW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. A PROB30 FOR TSRA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OUTLOOK...SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE...
WHILE FLT RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TUE MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER TUE
INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   64%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   75%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       MED   61%     MED   79%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       LOW   56%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  85%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 150730
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...USHERING IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE COAST TODAY
(ESSENTIALLY ENDING THE PERIOD OF NE FLOW)...AND THE FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE LAYER TURNS TO LIGHT WESTERLY...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND
POSSIBLY SCATTER AT TIMES LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND TO 75-80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
STILL A FEW DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO. THE ADDITIONAL HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE MODESTLY THIS AFTERNOON.
COMBINED WITH PWATS THAT REMAIN QUITE JUICY FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...ISLD TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS KICK A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN
AS A SUBTLE FEATURE IN WV IMAGERY OVER NW TEXAS...OVER THE SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY/NORTH GA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD...AND/OR INITIATE NEW CONVECTION OVER OUR
AREA BY EVENING...AND THIS IS WHEN POPS REACH A NADIR. THE HIGHEST
POPS...GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE UPSTATE AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WHICH SHOULD SEE THE MOST FAVORABLE
JUXTAPOSITION OF DEEP MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/FORCING. WHILE SHEAR WILL
BE SOMEWHAT RESPECTABLE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT PROFILES WILL BE TOO MOIST AND INSTABILITY TOO LIMITED TO
SUPPORT MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT PROGRESSIVE CELL
MOVEMENT...SO EVEN THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOW.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CWA BY DAYBREAK...
SUPPORTING AT LEAST LOW POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE
CONUS THRU THE MIDWEEK EVENTUALLY LEADING TO DEEPER TROUGHING OVER
THE EAST. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE
PLAINS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS HIGH WILL
WORK THROUGH OUR CWFA TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTING ACRS THE MTNS BY WED AND PRODUCING WEDGELIKE EASTERLY FLOW
INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE COLUMN AT
ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...WITH INSTABILITY THE MAIN JUSTIFICATION
FOR POPS. THOUGH POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...THE
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS SUGGESTED TO FORCE A LEE TROUGH
TUE AFTN...AND BRING EDDIES ACRS THE FA BOTH TUE AND WED NIGHTS.
CONTINUOUS LOW POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED WITH MINOR INCREASES WHEN
ENHANCED FORCING IS PRESENT. THE COOLER AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
FILTER IN...AND ESP WITH DOWNSLOPING TUE MAX TEMPS WILL RISE A TAD
ABOVE CLIMO. WED MAXES AND WED NIGHT MINS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
BELOW CLIMO WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS MUCH MORE INSTABILITY TUE
AFTN THAN THE GFS BUT KEEPS SFC PARCELS SLIGHTLY CAPPED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED POOR LAPSE RATES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER. THOUGH ONLY
ISOLATED CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO FORM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN WHAT WE/VE SEEN LATELY. ACTIVITY
FORMING DURING PEAK HEATING MAY POSE A SMALL SEVERE RISK IF IT GROWS
TALL ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...AN INITIALLY SIMPLE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN
TROUGH PATTERN THURSDAY WILL BECOME MORE COMPLEX OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 15/00Z GFS AND 14/12Z EC AS TO
ITS EVOLUTION. THE ERN TROUGH PROGRESSES ENOUGH TO ALLOW REAL COLD
AIR DAMMING TO FORM BY FRI MRNG...REINFORCING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
FOR THE REGION AND SUPPORTING A DRY FCST THRU MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AS THE PARENT
HIGH IS PUSHED OFFSHORE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INITIATES RETURN FLOW
SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE WEDGE AND ALLOWING A BRIEF WARMUP. THAT LOW
DOES THEN BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TO START THE NEW
WEEK. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE FRONT AS IT DEVELOPS A SECONDARY
SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE 15/00Z EC JUST ARRIVED STILL FAVORING THE
PREVIOUS RUN/S TRACK OF THE CANADIAN LOW...BUT AMPLIFIES THE UPPER
TROUGH SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS BACKS UP A STRONGER FROPA FOR EARLY
MONDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN SURROUNDS JUST HOW MUCH CIGS WILL
LOWER THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE SOLIDLY MVFR AS OF 0530Z...BUT NE
FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INDICATES SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS
FILTERING INTO THE REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND...NEAR TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE SW
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHICH WOULD STOP ANY DRY AIR INFILTRATION AND
POSSIBLY ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR. IN FACT...I THINK THERE/S
ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO INCLUDE A TEMPO BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.
SOME BR IN THE 5-6SM RANGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CIGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY SCATTER FROM
TIME TO TIME. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SHRA. A PROB30 HAS BEE INTRODUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LGT/VRBL
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT SW BY MID-AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...OUR BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IS INSISTENT IN DEVELOPING LIFR (AT KAVL) AND IFR (ELSEWHERE)
CIGS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND HAS PLENTY OF SUPPORT
FROM OTHER RELIABLE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN
SLOWLY LIFTING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE IS ALSO
INDICATION THAT THE FLOW WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/SW ABOVE THE SURFACE
(ALBEIT REMAINING LIGHT) TOWARD DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR CIGS
LOWERING MUCH FURTHER. NEVERTHELESS...WE ARE STARTING TO SEE PATCHY
FEW/SCT IFR CLOUDS SHOWING UP ON AREA METARS...SO TEMPOS FOR IFR
HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
KHKY SEES THE SHORTEST TEMPO (2 HOURS) DUE TO STRONGER EFFECTS FROM
DOWNSLOPING. MEANWHILE...KAVL IS ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM
VARY QUITE A BIT...ES ONCE THE W/SW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. A PROB30 FOR TSRA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OUTLOOK...SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE...
WHILE FLT RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TUE MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER TUE
INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   64%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   75%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       MED   61%     MED   79%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       LOW   56%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  85%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL






000
FXUS62 KGSP 150550
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...SCT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY SOUTH OF
OUR CWFA...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS PROBABLY WARRANTED ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE MARKED BY ABUNDANT LOW
CLOUD COVER AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS IN LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING
REGIME.

AT 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION...WHILE A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM TX TO THE GA COAST. A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF NC OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A STATIONARY FROM THE GA COAST TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY.

COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINA
AND NE GA. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG INTERSTATE 85
HAVE LARGELY ABATED THIS EVENING. WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
REMAIN OVER OUR AREA...VERY SMALL POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT ONLY HAD
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG...NO ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

MONDAY...H85 WINDS WILL BECOME WEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...RESULTING IN DRYING ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE SC AND GA
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
IN POPS RANGING FROM U40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO
SCHC ACROSS THE N I-77 CORRIDOR. THINNER CLOUD COVER AND WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR 80
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS...FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THINK WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF DIMINISHED
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
ASSUMING A REMNANT COOL POOL HAS BEEN ELIMINATED BY MONDAY EVENING
AND SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...IT WILL PROBABLY LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A
REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ITS PASSAGE IS UNREMARKABLE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE PRECIP CHANCE HAS A DOWNWARD TREND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ONCE THAT BOUNDARY HAS MOVED PAST. IT IS FROM THAT POINT
ONWARD THAT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THE GFS ONCE AGAIN BRINGS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. THE NAM RETAINS MUCH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVES IT
EAST. THE FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MOSGUIDE AND THE SREF
AND WILL FEATURE A LOW END CHANCE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...
FIGURING THAT EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIP OUT THERE. TEMPS
REBOUND ANOTHER CATEGORY WARMER...BUT COULD BE TOO WARM IF TOO MUCH
UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS BRIDGES THE MTNS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTES TO THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LET
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT TO WHICH YOU MIGHT CALL THIS A COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE DEBATABLE...AS THERE SHOULD BE NO OBVIOUS
PARENT HIGH TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD HAVE A COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS E OF THE MTNS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE NUDGED THE FCST
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SREF TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. TEMPS WILL
ALSO DROP OFF TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WED EVENING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. ANOTHER
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE OCCURRING AS A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED EVENING AND THEN BE OVER NEW
ENGLAND THURS NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COOL AND STABLE AIR
FLOW FROM CANADA AND SOME FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE STILL
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A COOL NE FLOW. THIS FLOW
SHOULD CERTAINLY BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IF FORECAST TO BE CROSSING
THE OHIO VALLEY TO START THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 22. THE GFS SHOWS
WEAK INSTABILITY OF AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT THURS AND FRI PM
BEING MOSTLY ELBERTON TO GREENWOOD FRI...SO IF THERE IS ANY RAIN AT
ALL IT WOULD BE SHOWERS OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN UNDER THE WEDGE. TEMPS
WILL BE THE COOLEST THURS AND FRI.  TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE WEDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND THE RESULTANT OF MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN SURROUNDS JUST HOW MUCH CIGS WILL
LOWER THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE SOLIDLY MVFR AS OF 0530Z...BUT NE
FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INDICATES SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS
FILTERING INTO THE REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND...NEAR TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE SW
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHICH WOULD STOP ANY DRY AIR INFILTRATION AND
POSSIBLY ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR. IN FACT...I THINK THERE/S
ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO INCLUDE A TEMPO BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.
SOME BR IN THE 5-6SM RANGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CIGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY SCATTER FROM
TIME TO TIME. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SHRA. A PROB30 HAS BEE INTRODUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LGT/VRBL
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT SW BY MID-AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...OUR BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IS INSISTENT IN DEVELOPING LIFR (AT KAVL) AND IFR (ELSEWHERE)
CIGS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND HAS PLENTY OF SUPPORT
FROM OTHER RELIABLE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN
SLOWLY LIFTING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE IS ALSO
INDICATION THAT THE FLOW WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/SW ABOVE THE SURFACE
(ALBEIT REMAINING LIGHT) TOWARD DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR CIGS
LOWERING MUCH FURTHER. NEVERTHELESS...WE ARE STARTING TO SEE PATCHY
FEW/SCT IFR CLOUDS SHOWING UP ON AREA METARS...SO TEMPOS FOR IFR
HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
KHKY SEES THE SHORTEST TEMPO (2 HOURS) DUE TO STRONGER EFFECTS FROM
DOWNSLOPING. MEANWHILE...KAVL IS ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM
VARY QUITE A BIT...ES ONCE THE W/SW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. A PROB30 FOR TSRA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OUTLOOK...SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE...
WHILE FLT RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TUE MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER TUE
INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  87%     MED   75%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   69%     MED   73%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  97%
KAVL       MED   78%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  90%
KHKY       MED   64%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       MED   69%     MED   77%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 150550
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...SCT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY SOUTH OF
OUR CWFA...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS PROBABLY WARRANTED ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE MARKED BY ABUNDANT LOW
CLOUD COVER AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS IN LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING
REGIME.

AT 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION...WHILE A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM TX TO THE GA COAST. A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF NC OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A STATIONARY FROM THE GA COAST TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY.

COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINA
AND NE GA. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG INTERSTATE 85
HAVE LARGELY ABATED THIS EVENING. WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
REMAIN OVER OUR AREA...VERY SMALL POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT ONLY HAD
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG...NO ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

MONDAY...H85 WINDS WILL BECOME WEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...RESULTING IN DRYING ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE SC AND GA
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
IN POPS RANGING FROM U40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO
SCHC ACROSS THE N I-77 CORRIDOR. THINNER CLOUD COVER AND WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR 80
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS...FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THINK WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF DIMINISHED
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
ASSUMING A REMNANT COOL POOL HAS BEEN ELIMINATED BY MONDAY EVENING
AND SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...IT WILL PROBABLY LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A
REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ITS PASSAGE IS UNREMARKABLE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE PRECIP CHANCE HAS A DOWNWARD TREND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ONCE THAT BOUNDARY HAS MOVED PAST. IT IS FROM THAT POINT
ONWARD THAT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THE GFS ONCE AGAIN BRINGS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. THE NAM RETAINS MUCH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVES IT
EAST. THE FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MOSGUIDE AND THE SREF
AND WILL FEATURE A LOW END CHANCE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...
FIGURING THAT EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIP OUT THERE. TEMPS
REBOUND ANOTHER CATEGORY WARMER...BUT COULD BE TOO WARM IF TOO MUCH
UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS BRIDGES THE MTNS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTES TO THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LET
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT TO WHICH YOU MIGHT CALL THIS A COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE DEBATABLE...AS THERE SHOULD BE NO OBVIOUS
PARENT HIGH TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD HAVE A COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS E OF THE MTNS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE NUDGED THE FCST
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SREF TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. TEMPS WILL
ALSO DROP OFF TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WED EVENING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. ANOTHER
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE OCCURRING AS A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED EVENING AND THEN BE OVER NEW
ENGLAND THURS NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COOL AND STABLE AIR
FLOW FROM CANADA AND SOME FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE STILL
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A COOL NE FLOW. THIS FLOW
SHOULD CERTAINLY BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IF FORECAST TO BE CROSSING
THE OHIO VALLEY TO START THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 22. THE GFS SHOWS
WEAK INSTABILITY OF AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT THURS AND FRI PM
BEING MOSTLY ELBERTON TO GREENWOOD FRI...SO IF THERE IS ANY RAIN AT
ALL IT WOULD BE SHOWERS OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN UNDER THE WEDGE. TEMPS
WILL BE THE COOLEST THURS AND FRI.  TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE WEDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND THE RESULTANT OF MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN SURROUNDS JUST HOW MUCH CIGS WILL
LOWER THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE SOLIDLY MVFR AS OF 0530Z...BUT NE
FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INDICATES SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS
FILTERING INTO THE REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND...NEAR TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE SW
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHICH WOULD STOP ANY DRY AIR INFILTRATION AND
POSSIBLY ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR. IN FACT...I THINK THERE/S
ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO INCLUDE A TEMPO BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.
SOME BR IN THE 5-6SM RANGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CIGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY SCATTER FROM
TIME TO TIME. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SHRA. A PROB30 HAS BEE INTRODUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LGT/VRBL
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT SW BY MID-AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...OUR BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IS INSISTENT IN DEVELOPING LIFR (AT KAVL) AND IFR (ELSEWHERE)
CIGS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND HAS PLENTY OF SUPPORT
FROM OTHER RELIABLE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN
SLOWLY LIFTING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE IS ALSO
INDICATION THAT THE FLOW WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/SW ABOVE THE SURFACE
(ALBEIT REMAINING LIGHT) TOWARD DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR CIGS
LOWERING MUCH FURTHER. NEVERTHELESS...WE ARE STARTING TO SEE PATCHY
FEW/SCT IFR CLOUDS SHOWING UP ON AREA METARS...SO TEMPOS FOR IFR
HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
KHKY SEES THE SHORTEST TEMPO (2 HOURS) DUE TO STRONGER EFFECTS FROM
DOWNSLOPING. MEANWHILE...KAVL IS ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM
VARY QUITE A BIT...ES ONCE THE W/SW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. A PROB30 FOR TSRA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OUTLOOK...SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE...
WHILE FLT RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TUE MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER TUE
INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  87%     MED   75%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   69%     MED   73%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  97%
KAVL       MED   78%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  90%
KHKY       MED   64%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       MED   69%     MED   77%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 150200
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION...WHILE A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM TX TO THE GA COAST. A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF NC OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A STATIONARY FROM THE GA COAST TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY.

COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINA
AND NE GA. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG INTERSTATE 85
HAVE LARGELY ABATED THIS EVENING. WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
REMAIN OVER OUR AREA...VERY SMALL POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT ONLY HAD
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG...NO ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

MONDAY...H85 WINDS WILL BECOME WEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...RESULTING IN DRYING ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE SC AND GA
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
IN POPS RANGING FROM U40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO
SCHC ACROSS THE N I-77 CORRIDOR. THINNER CLOUD COVER AND WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR 80
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS...FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THINK WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF DIMINISHED
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
ASSUMING A REMNANT COOL POOL HAS BEEN ELIMINATED BY MONDAY EVENING
AND SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...IT WILL PROBABLY LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A
REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ITS PASSAGE IS UNREMARKABLE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE PRECIP CHANCE HAS A DOWNWARD TREND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ONCE THAT BOUNDARY HAS MOVED PAST. IT IS FROM THAT POINT
ONWARD THAT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THE GFS ONCE AGAIN BRINGS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. THE NAM RETAINS MUCH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVES IT
EAST. THE FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MOSGUIDE AND THE SREF
AND WILL FEATURE A LOW END CHANCE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...
FIGURING THAT EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIP OUT THERE. TEMPS
REBOUND ANOTHER CATEGORY WARMER...BUT COULD BE TOO WARM IF TOO MUCH
UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS BRIDGES THE MTNS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTES TO THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LET
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT TO WHICH YOU MIGHT CALL THIS A COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE DEBATABLE...AS THERE SHOULD BE NO OBVIOUS
PARENT HIGH TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD HAVE A COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS E OF THE MTNS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE NUDGED THE FCST
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SREF TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. TEMPS WILL
ALSO DROP OFF TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WED EVENING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. ANOTHER
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE OCCURRING AS A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED EVENING AND THEN BE OVER NEW
ENGLAND THURS NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COOL AND STABLE AIR
FLOW FROM CANADA AND SOME FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE STILL
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A COOL NE FLOW. THIS FLOW
SHOULD CERTAINLY BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IF FORECAST TO BE CROSSING
THE OHIO VALLEY TO START THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 22. THE GFS SHOWS
WEAK INSTABILITY OF AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT THURS AND FRI PM
BEING MOSTLY ELBERTON TO GREENWOOD FRI...SO IF THERE IS ANY RAIN AT
ALL IT WOULD BE SHOWERS OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN UNDER THE WEDGE. TEMPS
WILL BE THE COOLEST THURS AND FRI.  TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE WEDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND THE RESULTANT OF MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR A VSBY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN THROUGH
NE WINDS FALL OFF CONSIDERABLY. GUIDANCE DOES FAVOR MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS...AND WARRANT
A MENTION IN THE TAF. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL VEER SW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR VSBY IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND LIFR IN
AT KAVL. WITH CONFIDENCE STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED...DESPITE LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...ONLY IFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL...AND HIGH END
MVFR AT FOOTHILL SITES. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...AND
LIFR AT KAVL BY DAWN. ALTHOUGH VSBY RETURNS TO VFR MID MORNING...BUT
CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR UNTIL MIDDAY. LIGHT NE WINDS
WILL VEER SW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FOOTHILLS... WHILE KAVL
WINDS VEER FORM N TO S. CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WARRANTING A MENTION IN THE TAFS BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK
OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  81%     MED   64%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       MED   77%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       MED   74%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH  85%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT








000
FXUS62 KGSP 150200
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION...WHILE A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM TX TO THE GA COAST. A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF NC OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A STATIONARY FROM THE GA COAST TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY.

COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINA
AND NE GA. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG INTERSTATE 85
HAVE LARGELY ABATED THIS EVENING. WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
REMAIN OVER OUR AREA...VERY SMALL POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT ONLY HAD
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG...NO ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

MONDAY...H85 WINDS WILL BECOME WEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...RESULTING IN DRYING ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE SC AND GA
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
IN POPS RANGING FROM U40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO
SCHC ACROSS THE N I-77 CORRIDOR. THINNER CLOUD COVER AND WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR 80
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS...FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THINK WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF DIMINISHED
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
ASSUMING A REMNANT COOL POOL HAS BEEN ELIMINATED BY MONDAY EVENING
AND SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...IT WILL PROBABLY LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A
REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ITS PASSAGE IS UNREMARKABLE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE PRECIP CHANCE HAS A DOWNWARD TREND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ONCE THAT BOUNDARY HAS MOVED PAST. IT IS FROM THAT POINT
ONWARD THAT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THE GFS ONCE AGAIN BRINGS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. THE NAM RETAINS MUCH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVES IT
EAST. THE FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MOSGUIDE AND THE SREF
AND WILL FEATURE A LOW END CHANCE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...
FIGURING THAT EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIP OUT THERE. TEMPS
REBOUND ANOTHER CATEGORY WARMER...BUT COULD BE TOO WARM IF TOO MUCH
UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS BRIDGES THE MTNS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTES TO THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LET
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT TO WHICH YOU MIGHT CALL THIS A COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE DEBATABLE...AS THERE SHOULD BE NO OBVIOUS
PARENT HIGH TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD HAVE A COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS E OF THE MTNS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE NUDGED THE FCST
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SREF TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. TEMPS WILL
ALSO DROP OFF TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WED EVENING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. ANOTHER
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE OCCURRING AS A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED EVENING AND THEN BE OVER NEW
ENGLAND THURS NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COOL AND STABLE AIR
FLOW FROM CANADA AND SOME FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE STILL
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A COOL NE FLOW. THIS FLOW
SHOULD CERTAINLY BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IF FORECAST TO BE CROSSING
THE OHIO VALLEY TO START THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 22. THE GFS SHOWS
WEAK INSTABILITY OF AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT THURS AND FRI PM
BEING MOSTLY ELBERTON TO GREENWOOD FRI...SO IF THERE IS ANY RAIN AT
ALL IT WOULD BE SHOWERS OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN UNDER THE WEDGE. TEMPS
WILL BE THE COOLEST THURS AND FRI.  TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE WEDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND THE RESULTANT OF MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR A VSBY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN THROUGH
NE WINDS FALL OFF CONSIDERABLY. GUIDANCE DOES FAVOR MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS...AND WARRANT
A MENTION IN THE TAF. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL VEER SW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR VSBY IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND LIFR IN
AT KAVL. WITH CONFIDENCE STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED...DESPITE LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...ONLY IFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL...AND HIGH END
MVFR AT FOOTHILL SITES. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...AND
LIFR AT KAVL BY DAWN. ALTHOUGH VSBY RETURNS TO VFR MID MORNING...BUT
CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR UNTIL MIDDAY. LIGHT NE WINDS
WILL VEER SW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FOOTHILLS... WHILE KAVL
WINDS VEER FORM N TO S. CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WARRANTING A MENTION IN THE TAFS BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK
OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  81%     MED   64%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       MED   77%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       MED   74%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH  85%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT







000
FXUS62 KGSP 142316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
2315 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PER RADAR
TRENDS...FAVORING THE SC PIEDMONT.

AS OF 245 PM...WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE I-85
CORRIDOR...ASSOCIATED WITH SURGING NE WINDS AND 305K-315K ISENTROPIC
LIFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS
AT 300K SHOULD VEER FROM SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO WEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...PRIMARILY FROM 9Z-15Z.
I WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC RANGE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST.

MONDAY...H85 WINDS WILL BECOME WEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...RESULTING IN DRYING ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE SC AND GA
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
IN POPS RANGING FROM U40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO
SCHC ACROSS THE N I-77 CORRIDOR. THINNER CLOUD COVER AND WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR 80
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS...FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THINK WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF DIMINISHED
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
ASSUMING A REMNANT COOL POOL HAS BEEN ELIMINATED BY MONDAY EVENING
AND SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...IT WILL PROBABLY LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A
REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ITS PASSAGE IS UNREMARKABLE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE PRECIP CHANCE HAS A DOWNWARD TREND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ONCE THAT BOUNDARY HAS MOVED PAST. IT IS FROM THAT POINT
ONWARD THAT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THE GFS ONCE AGAIN BRINGS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. THE NAM RETAINS MUCH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVES IT
EAST. THE FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MOSGUIDE AND THE SREF
AND WILL FEATURE A LOW END CHANCE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...
FIGURING THAT EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIP OUT THERE. TEMPS
REBOUND ANOTHER CATEGORY WARMER...BUT COULD BE TOO WARM IF TOO MUCH
UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS BRIDGES THE MTNS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTES TO THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LET
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT TO WHICH YOU MIGHT CALL THIS A COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE DEBATABLE...AS THERE SHOULD BE NO OBVIOUS
PARENT HIGH TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD HAVE A COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS E OF THE MTNS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE NUDGED THE FCST
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SREF TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. TEMPS WILL
ALSO DROP OFF TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WED EVENING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. ANOTHER
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE OCCURRING AS A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED EVENING AND THEN BE OVER NEW
ENGLAND THURS NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COOL AND STABLE AIR
FLOW FROM CANADA AND SOME FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE STILL
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A COOL NE FLOW. THIS FLOW
SHOULD CERTAINLY BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IF FORECAST TO BE CROSSING
THE OHIO VALLEY TO START THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 22. THE GFS SHOWS
WEAK INSTABILITY OF AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT THURS AND FRI PM
BEING MOSTLY ELBERTON TO GREENWOOD FRI...SO IF THERE IS ANY RAIN AT
ALL IT WOULD BE SHOWERS OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN UNDER THE WEDGE. TEMPS
WILL BE THE COOLEST THURS AND FRI.  TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE WEDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND THE RESULTANT OF MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR A VSBY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN THROUGH
NE WINDS FALL OFF CONSIDERABLY. GUIDANCE DOES FAVOR MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS...AND WARRANT
A MENTION IN THE TAF. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL VEER SW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR VSBY IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND LIFR IN
AT KAVL. WITH CONFIDENCE STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED...DESPITE LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...ONLY IFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL...AND HIGH END
MVFR AT FOOTHILL SITES. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...AND
LIFR AT KAVL BY DAWN. ALTHOUGH VSBY RETURNS TO VFR MID MORNING...BUT
CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR UNTIL MIDDAY. LIGHT NE WINDS
WILL VEER SW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FOOTHILLS... WHILE KAVL
WINDS VEER FORM N TO S. CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WARRANTING A MENTION IN THE TAFS BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK
OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  98%
KGSP       HIGH  88%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  94%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  92%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     MED   75%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH  85%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH  82%     MED   76%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT







000
FXUS62 KGSP 142316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
2315 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PER RADAR
TRENDS...FAVORING THE SC PIEDMONT.

AS OF 245 PM...WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE I-85
CORRIDOR...ASSOCIATED WITH SURGING NE WINDS AND 305K-315K ISENTROPIC
LIFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS
AT 300K SHOULD VEER FROM SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO WEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...PRIMARILY FROM 9Z-15Z.
I WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC RANGE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST.

MONDAY...H85 WINDS WILL BECOME WEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...RESULTING IN DRYING ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE SC AND GA
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
IN POPS RANGING FROM U40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO
SCHC ACROSS THE N I-77 CORRIDOR. THINNER CLOUD COVER AND WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR 80
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS...FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THINK WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF DIMINISHED
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
ASSUMING A REMNANT COOL POOL HAS BEEN ELIMINATED BY MONDAY EVENING
AND SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...IT WILL PROBABLY LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A
REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ITS PASSAGE IS UNREMARKABLE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE PRECIP CHANCE HAS A DOWNWARD TREND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ONCE THAT BOUNDARY HAS MOVED PAST. IT IS FROM THAT POINT
ONWARD THAT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THE GFS ONCE AGAIN BRINGS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. THE NAM RETAINS MUCH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVES IT
EAST. THE FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MOSGUIDE AND THE SREF
AND WILL FEATURE A LOW END CHANCE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...
FIGURING THAT EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIP OUT THERE. TEMPS
REBOUND ANOTHER CATEGORY WARMER...BUT COULD BE TOO WARM IF TOO MUCH
UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS BRIDGES THE MTNS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTES TO THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LET
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT TO WHICH YOU MIGHT CALL THIS A COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE DEBATABLE...AS THERE SHOULD BE NO OBVIOUS
PARENT HIGH TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD HAVE A COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS E OF THE MTNS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE NUDGED THE FCST
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SREF TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. TEMPS WILL
ALSO DROP OFF TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WED EVENING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. ANOTHER
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE OCCURRING AS A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED EVENING AND THEN BE OVER NEW
ENGLAND THURS NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COOL AND STABLE AIR
FLOW FROM CANADA AND SOME FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE STILL
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A COOL NE FLOW. THIS FLOW
SHOULD CERTAINLY BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IF FORECAST TO BE CROSSING
THE OHIO VALLEY TO START THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 22. THE GFS SHOWS
WEAK INSTABILITY OF AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT THURS AND FRI PM
BEING MOSTLY ELBERTON TO GREENWOOD FRI...SO IF THERE IS ANY RAIN AT
ALL IT WOULD BE SHOWERS OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN UNDER THE WEDGE. TEMPS
WILL BE THE COOLEST THURS AND FRI.  TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE WEDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND THE RESULTANT OF MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR A VSBY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN THROUGH
NE WINDS FALL OFF CONSIDERABLY. GUIDANCE DOES FAVOR MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS...AND WARRANT
A MENTION IN THE TAF. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL VEER SW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR VSBY IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND LIFR IN
AT KAVL. WITH CONFIDENCE STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED...DESPITE LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...ONLY IFR WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL...AND HIGH END
MVFR AT FOOTHILL SITES. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...AND
LIFR AT KAVL BY DAWN. ALTHOUGH VSBY RETURNS TO VFR MID MORNING...BUT
CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR UNTIL MIDDAY. LIGHT NE WINDS
WILL VEER SW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FOOTHILLS... WHILE KAVL
WINDS VEER FORM N TO S. CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE ON
MONDAY...WARRANTING A MENTION IN THE TAFS BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK
OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  98%
KGSP       HIGH  88%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  94%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  92%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     MED   75%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH  85%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH  82%     MED   76%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT








000
FXUS62 KGSP 142014
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PER RADAR
TRENDS...WITH A SMALL INCREASE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. SKY
COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...INTRODUCING
A FEW BREAKS IN THE NW NC PIEDMONT.

AS OF 245 PM...WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE I-85
CORRIDOR...ASSOCIATED WITH SURGING NE WINDS AND 305K-315K ISENTROPIC
LIFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS
AT 300K SHOULD VEER FROM SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO WEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...PRIMARILY FROM 9Z-15Z.
I WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC RANGE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST.

MONDAY...H85 WINDS WILL BECOME WEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...RESULTING IN DRYING ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE SC AND GA
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
IN POPS RANGING FROM U40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO
SCHC ACROSS THE N I-77 CORRIDOR. THINNER CLOUD COVER AND WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR 80
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS...FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THINK WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF DIMINISHED
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
ASSUMING A REMNANT COOL POOL HAS BEEN ELIMINATED BY MONDAY EVENING
AND SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...IT WILL PROBABLY LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A
REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ITS PASSAGE IS UNREMARKABLE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE PRECIP CHANCE HAS A DOWNWARD TREND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ONCE THAT BOUNDARY HAS MOVED PAST. IT IS FROM THAT POINT
ONWARD THAT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THE GFS ONCE AGAIN BRINGS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. THE NAM RETAINS MUCH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVES IT
EAST. THE FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MOSGUIDE AND THE SREF
AND WILL FEATURE A LOW END CHANCE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...
FIGURING THAT EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIP OUT THERE. TEMPS
REBOUND ANOTHER CATEGORY WARMER...BUT COULD BE TOO WARM IF TOO MUCH
UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS BRIDGES THE MTNS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTES TO THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LET
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT TO WHICH YOU MIGHT CALL THIS A COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE DEBATABLE...AS THERE SHOULD BE NO OBVIOUS
PARENT HIGH TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD HAVE A COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS E OF THE MTNS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE NUDGED THE FCST
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SREF TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. TEMPS WILL
ALSO DROP OFF TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WED EVENING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. ANOTHER
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE OCCURRING AS A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED EVENING AND THEN BE OVER NEW
ENGLAND THURS NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COOL AND STABLE AIR
FLOW FROM CANADA AND SOME FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE STILL
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A COOL NE FLOW. THIS FLOW
SHOULD CERTAINLY BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IF FORECAST TO BE CROSSING
THE OHIO VALLEY TO START THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 22. THE GFS SHOWS
WEAK INSTABILITY OF AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT THURS AND FRI PM
BEING MOSTLY ELBERTON TO GREENWOOD FRI...SO IF THERE IS ANY RAIN AT
ALL IT WOULD BE SHOWERS OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN UNDER THE WEDGE. TEMPS
WILL BE THE COOLEST THURS AND FRI.  TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE WEDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND THE RESULTANT OF MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT WEAK LLVL LIFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIFT
WEAKENS CLOSER TO 0Z...I WILL INDICATE PERIODS OF VFR FROM 18-19 AS
A SHOWER PASSES BY...WITH VFR SETTLING IN AROUND 22Z. WEAK LLVL LIFT
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. ONCE THE FORCING
DEVELOPS...RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS SHOULD READILY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. I WILL INDICATE THE LOWEST CEILINGS FROM 8Z-14Z. THE ARRIVAL
OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO LIFT TO 035 BY 14Z.
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3-6 KTS FROM THE
NE...OR CALM. SHRA ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO KCLT. HOWEVER...SURGE
OF NE FLOW WILL KEEP KAND AND KAVL RESTRICTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ROUNDS OF LLVL LIFT WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN WIDESPREAD
THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 13Z-15Z.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     MED   72%     MED   70%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       MED   78%     MED   64%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  84%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     MED   79%     MED   63%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     MED   75%     MED   76%     HIGH  86%
KAND       HIGH  89%     MED   77%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  96%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 142014
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PER RADAR
TRENDS...WITH A SMALL INCREASE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. SKY
COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...INTRODUCING
A FEW BREAKS IN THE NW NC PIEDMONT.

AS OF 245 PM...WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE I-85
CORRIDOR...ASSOCIATED WITH SURGING NE WINDS AND 305K-315K ISENTROPIC
LIFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS
AT 300K SHOULD VEER FROM SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO WEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...PRIMARILY FROM 9Z-15Z.
I WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC RANGE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST.

MONDAY...H85 WINDS WILL BECOME WEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...RESULTING IN DRYING ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE SC AND GA
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
IN POPS RANGING FROM U40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO
SCHC ACROSS THE N I-77 CORRIDOR. THINNER CLOUD COVER AND WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR 80
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS...FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THINK WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF DIMINISHED
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
ASSUMING A REMNANT COOL POOL HAS BEEN ELIMINATED BY MONDAY EVENING
AND SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...IT WILL PROBABLY LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A
REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ITS PASSAGE IS UNREMARKABLE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE PRECIP CHANCE HAS A DOWNWARD TREND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ONCE THAT BOUNDARY HAS MOVED PAST. IT IS FROM THAT POINT
ONWARD THAT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THE GFS ONCE AGAIN BRINGS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. THE NAM RETAINS MUCH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVES IT
EAST. THE FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MOSGUIDE AND THE SREF
AND WILL FEATURE A LOW END CHANCE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...
FIGURING THAT EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIP OUT THERE. TEMPS
REBOUND ANOTHER CATEGORY WARMER...BUT COULD BE TOO WARM IF TOO MUCH
UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS BRIDGES THE MTNS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTES TO THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LET
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT TO WHICH YOU MIGHT CALL THIS A COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE DEBATABLE...AS THERE SHOULD BE NO OBVIOUS
PARENT HIGH TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD HAVE A COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS E OF THE MTNS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE NUDGED THE FCST
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SREF TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. TEMPS WILL
ALSO DROP OFF TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WED EVENING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. ANOTHER
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE OCCURRING AS A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED EVENING AND THEN BE OVER NEW
ENGLAND THURS NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COOL AND STABLE AIR
FLOW FROM CANADA AND SOME FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE STILL
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A COOL NE FLOW. THIS FLOW
SHOULD CERTAINLY BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IF FORECAST TO BE CROSSING
THE OHIO VALLEY TO START THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 22. THE GFS SHOWS
WEAK INSTABILITY OF AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT THURS AND FRI PM
BEING MOSTLY ELBERTON TO GREENWOOD FRI...SO IF THERE IS ANY RAIN AT
ALL IT WOULD BE SHOWERS OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN UNDER THE WEDGE. TEMPS
WILL BE THE COOLEST THURS AND FRI.  TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE WEDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND THE RESULTANT OF MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT WEAK LLVL LIFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIFT
WEAKENS CLOSER TO 0Z...I WILL INDICATE PERIODS OF VFR FROM 18-19 AS
A SHOWER PASSES BY...WITH VFR SETTLING IN AROUND 22Z. WEAK LLVL LIFT
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. ONCE THE FORCING
DEVELOPS...RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS SHOULD READILY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. I WILL INDICATE THE LOWEST CEILINGS FROM 8Z-14Z. THE ARRIVAL
OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO LIFT TO 035 BY 14Z.
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3-6 KTS FROM THE
NE...OR CALM. SHRA ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO KCLT. HOWEVER...SURGE
OF NE FLOW WILL KEEP KAND AND KAVL RESTRICTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ROUNDS OF LLVL LIFT WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN WIDESPREAD
THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 13Z-15Z.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     MED   72%     MED   70%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       MED   78%     MED   64%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  84%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     MED   79%     MED   63%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     MED   75%     MED   76%     HIGH  86%
KAND       HIGH  89%     MED   77%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  96%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...NED








000
FXUS62 KGSP 141850
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE I-85
CORRIDOR...ASSOCIATED WITH SURGING NE WINDS AND 305K-315K ISENTROPIC
LIFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS
AT 300K SHOULD VEER FROM SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO WEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...PRIMARILY FROM 9Z-15Z. I
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC RANGE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST.

MONDAY...H85 WINDS WILL BECOME WEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...RESULTING IN DRYING ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE SC AND GA
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
IN POPS RANGING FROM U40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO
SCHC ACROSS THE N I-77 CORRIDOR. THINNER CLOUD COVER AND WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR 80
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS...FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THINK WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF DIMINISHED
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
ASSUMING A REMNANT COOL POOL HAS BEEN ELIMINATED BY MONDAY EVENING
AND SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...IT WILL PROBABLY LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A
REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ITS PASSAGE IS UNREMARKABLE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE PRECIP CHANCE HAS A DOWNWARD TREND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ONCE THAT BOUNDARY HAS MOVED PAST. IT IS FROM THAT POINT
ONWARD THAT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THE GFS ONCE AGAIN BRINGS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. THE NAM RETAINS MUCH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVES IT
EAST. THE FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MOSGUIDE AND THE SREF
AND WILL FEATURE A LOW END CHANCE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...
FIGURING THAT EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIP OUT THERE. TEMPS
REBOUND ANOTHER CATEGORY WARMER...BUT COULD BE TOO WARM IF TOO MUCH
UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS BRIDGES THE MTNS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTES TO THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LET
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT TO WHICH YOU MIGHT CALL THIS A COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE DEBATABLE...AS THERE SHOULD BE NO OBVIOUS
PARENT HIGH TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD HAVE A COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS E OF THE MTNS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE NUDGED THE FCST
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SREF TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. TEMPS WILL
ALSO DROP OFF TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WED EVENING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. ANOTHER
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE OCCURRING AS A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED EVENING AND THEN BE OVER NEW
ENGLAND THURS NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COOL AND STABLE AIR
FLOW FROM CANADA AND SOME FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE STILL
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A COOL NE FLOW. THIS FLOW
SHOULD CERTAINLY BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IF FORECAST TO BE CROSSING
THE OHIO VALLEY TO START THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 22. THE GFS SHOWS
WEAK INSTABILITY OF AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT THURS AND FRI PM
BEING MOSTLY ELBERTON TO GREENWOOD FRI...SO IF THERE IS ANY RAIN AT
ALL IT WOULD BE SHOWERS OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN UNDER THE WEDGE. TEMPS
WILL BE THE COOLEST THURS AND FRI.  TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE WEDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND THE RESULTANT OF MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT WEAK LLVL LIFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIFT
WEAKENS CLOSER TO 0Z...I WILL INDICATE PERIODS OF VFR FROM 18-19 AS
A SHOWER PASSES BY...WITH VFR SETTLING IN AROUND 22Z. WEAK LLVL LIFT
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. ONCE THE FORCING
DEVELOPS...RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS SHOULD READILY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. I WILL INDICATE THE LOWEST CEILINGS FROM 8Z-14Z. THE ARRIVAL
OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO LIFT TO 035 BY 14Z.
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3-6 KTS FROM THE
NE...OR CALM. SHRA ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO KCLT. HOWEVER...SURGE
OF NE FLOW WILL KEEP KAND AND KAVL RESTRICTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ROUNDS OF LLVL LIFT WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN WIDESPREAD
THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 13Z-15Z.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     MED   79%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     MED   77%     MED   72%     HIGH  81%
KAVL       HIGH  82%     MED   68%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     MED   73%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     MED   79%     MED   73%     HIGH  86%
KAND       HIGH  92%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 141850
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE I-85
CORRIDOR...ASSOCIATED WITH SURGING NE WINDS AND 305K-315K ISENTROPIC
LIFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS
AT 300K SHOULD VEER FROM SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO WEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...PRIMARILY FROM 9Z-15Z. I
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC RANGE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST.

MONDAY...H85 WINDS WILL BECOME WEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...RESULTING IN DRYING ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE SC AND GA
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
IN POPS RANGING FROM U40S ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO
SCHC ACROSS THE N I-77 CORRIDOR. THINNER CLOUD COVER AND WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR 80
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS...FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THINK WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF DIMINISHED
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
ASSUMING A REMNANT COOL POOL HAS BEEN ELIMINATED BY MONDAY EVENING
AND SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...IT WILL PROBABLY LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A
REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ITS PASSAGE IS UNREMARKABLE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE PRECIP CHANCE HAS A DOWNWARD TREND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ONCE THAT BOUNDARY HAS MOVED PAST. IT IS FROM THAT POINT
ONWARD THAT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THE GFS ONCE AGAIN BRINGS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO EASTERLY AND UPSLOPE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. THE NAM RETAINS MUCH MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVES IT
EAST. THE FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MOSGUIDE AND THE SREF
AND WILL FEATURE A LOW END CHANCE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...
FIGURING THAT EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIP OUT THERE. TEMPS
REBOUND ANOTHER CATEGORY WARMER...BUT COULD BE TOO WARM IF TOO MUCH
UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS BRIDGES THE MTNS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTES TO THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LET
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT TO WHICH YOU MIGHT CALL THIS A COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE DEBATABLE...AS THERE SHOULD BE NO OBVIOUS
PARENT HIGH TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD HAVE A COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS E OF THE MTNS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE NUDGED THE FCST
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SREF TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. TEMPS WILL
ALSO DROP OFF TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WED EVENING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. ANOTHER
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL BE OCCURRING AS A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED EVENING AND THEN BE OVER NEW
ENGLAND THURS NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COOL AND STABLE AIR
FLOW FROM CANADA AND SOME FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE STILL
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A COOL NE FLOW. THIS FLOW
SHOULD CERTAINLY BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IF FORECAST TO BE CROSSING
THE OHIO VALLEY TO START THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 22. THE GFS SHOWS
WEAK INSTABILITY OF AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT THURS AND FRI PM
BEING MOSTLY ELBERTON TO GREENWOOD FRI...SO IF THERE IS ANY RAIN AT
ALL IT WOULD BE SHOWERS OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN UNDER THE WEDGE. TEMPS
WILL BE THE COOLEST THURS AND FRI.  TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE WEDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND THE RESULTANT OF MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT WEAK LLVL LIFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIFT
WEAKENS CLOSER TO 0Z...I WILL INDICATE PERIODS OF VFR FROM 18-19 AS
A SHOWER PASSES BY...WITH VFR SETTLING IN AROUND 22Z. WEAK LLVL LIFT
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. ONCE THE FORCING
DEVELOPS...RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS SHOULD READILY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. I WILL INDICATE THE LOWEST CEILINGS FROM 8Z-14Z. THE ARRIVAL
OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO LIFT TO 035 BY 14Z.
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3-6 KTS FROM THE
NE...OR CALM. SHRA ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO KCLT. HOWEVER...SURGE
OF NE FLOW WILL KEEP KAND AND KAVL RESTRICTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ROUNDS OF LLVL LIFT WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN WIDESPREAD
THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 13Z-15Z.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     MED   79%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     MED   77%     MED   72%     HIGH  81%
KAVL       HIGH  82%     MED   68%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     MED   73%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     MED   79%     MED   73%     HIGH  86%
KAND       HIGH  92%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  93%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...NED








000
FXUS62 KGSP 141800
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM...WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE I-85
CORRIDOR...ASSOCIATED WITH SURGING NE WINDS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL UPDATE THE POPS TO LOWER VALUES EAST OF THE
MTNS...PRESERVING VALUES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON TRACK...BELOW GUIDANCE.

AS OF 930 AM...THE KGSP RADAR INDICATED A SURGE OF NE FLOW BEHIND A
BOUNDARY CROSSING THE GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG COUNTIES. THE REGION
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...WITH STEADY TEMPS. AREAS NORTH...SHOULD
SEE LESS RAINFALL COVERAGE AND HIGHER CLOUD BASES...TEMPS SLOWLY
WARMING. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE EXPECTED
TRENDS.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...REINFORCING WEDGE-LIKE
RIDGING ALREADY IN PLACE ACRS THE WRN CAROLINAS. WEDGE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF I-20 AS DELINEATED BY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS.

STILL SEEING SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
INTERESTINGLY THIS IS RIGHT WHERE THE 06Z NAM 300K SFC SHOWS THE
BEST UPGLIDE AT 12Z. GOING FWD IN TIME TO 15Z THE WINDS VEER AND THE
SETUP DIMINISHES. HOWEVER AS DIURNAL HEATING GETS UNDERWAY ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE...THIS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
FOR POPS. THE NAM/GFS AND MESO MODELS DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF OVER
THE CENT/SRN MTNS AND MUCH OF THE SC/GA ZONES AS A RESULT. HAVE
SOLID CHC SHRA MENTION TODAY IN THESE AREAS...AND SCHC RA IN THE
AREAS ONLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPGLIDE. THE VERY HIGH PWAT
VALUES WE SAW FRI-SAT HAVE NOW RETREATED SOUTH OF THE WEDGE SO HEAVY
RAIN IS OF MUCH LESS CONCERN TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VIRTUALLY OVERCAST OVER THE WEDGE...AND THE AIRMASS IS COOLER TO
BEGIN WITH. THUS I WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAX TEMPS AROUND 10
DEG BELOW CLIMO. OF COURSE...IF BREAKS ARE ABLE TO FORM AWAY FROM
THE AREAS SEEING PRECIP...THE TEMP FCST COULD QUICKLY BUST.

THOUGH CONFLUENCE IS MINIMAL ALOFT THE SFC HIGH OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC HOLDS STRONG TONIGHT SO THE WEDGE AND WEAK UPGLIDE
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO DROP OFF AFTER PEAK
HEATING ALONG ITS FRINGE...BUT WILL KEEP SCHC POPS EVERYWHERE THRU
THE NIGHT. THE CLOUD LAYER ATOP THE WEDGE DOES BECOME MORE SHALLOW
PER PROG SOUNDINGS BUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL PLAUSIBLE. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN DURING THE NEAR TERM...THE LIKELY EROSION OF COLD
AIR DAMMING ON MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER INSOLATION AND
DESTABILIZATION ON MONDAY...WHILE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABUNDANT...
ESP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM
TO BE PICKING UP ON A FAST MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE EJECTING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND TAKING AIM ON THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
END OF MONDAY. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT MON AFTERNOON/
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FAVORED ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST ROBUST INSTABILITY (I.E. THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES). WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND IN POPS WILL BE FEATURED MON
NIGHT...THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO...AS A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN POP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE FEATURED ONLY IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...RAPIDLY DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
FEATURE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD AIR DAMMING EVENTS...AS 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH OOZES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FAVOR TEMPS
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL NOT BE 0 DURING THIS TIME...THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT NE FLOW WILL ALLOW ENOUGH STABLE AIR TO PENETRATE
INTO THE AREA TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20/30 POPS DURING
THIS TIME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE WEDGE
WILL BE REINFORCED BY STOUT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF TYPICALLY DRY
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS IS FAR FROM A
CERTAINTY...AND TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT WEAK LLVL LIFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIFT
WEAKENS CLOSER TO 0Z...I WILL INDICATE PERIODS OF VFR FROM 18-19 AS
A SHOWER PASSES BY...WITH VFR SETTLING IN AROUND 22Z. WEAK LLVL LIFT
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. ONCE THE FORCING
DEVELOPS...RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS SHOULD READILY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. I WILL INDICATE THE LOWEST CEILINGS FROM 8Z-14Z. THE ARRIVAL
OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO LIFT TO 035 BY 14Z.
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3-6 KTS FROM THE
NE...OR CALM. SHRA ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO KCLT. HOWEVER...SURGE
OF NE FLOW WILL KEEP KAND AND KAVL RESTRICTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ROUNDS OF LLVL LIFT WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN WIDESPREAD
THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 13Z-15Z.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  84%     MED   78%     MED   74%     MED   79%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     MED   70%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     MED   77%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       HIGH  84%     HIGH  81%     MED   77%     HIGH  80%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 141800
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM...WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE I-85
CORRIDOR...ASSOCIATED WITH SURGING NE WINDS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL UPDATE THE POPS TO LOWER VALUES EAST OF THE
MTNS...PRESERVING VALUES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON TRACK...BELOW GUIDANCE.

AS OF 930 AM...THE KGSP RADAR INDICATED A SURGE OF NE FLOW BEHIND A
BOUNDARY CROSSING THE GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG COUNTIES. THE REGION
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...WITH STEADY TEMPS. AREAS NORTH...SHOULD
SEE LESS RAINFALL COVERAGE AND HIGHER CLOUD BASES...TEMPS SLOWLY
WARMING. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE EXPECTED
TRENDS.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...REINFORCING WEDGE-LIKE
RIDGING ALREADY IN PLACE ACRS THE WRN CAROLINAS. WEDGE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF I-20 AS DELINEATED BY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS.

STILL SEEING SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
INTERESTINGLY THIS IS RIGHT WHERE THE 06Z NAM 300K SFC SHOWS THE
BEST UPGLIDE AT 12Z. GOING FWD IN TIME TO 15Z THE WINDS VEER AND THE
SETUP DIMINISHES. HOWEVER AS DIURNAL HEATING GETS UNDERWAY ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE...THIS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
FOR POPS. THE NAM/GFS AND MESO MODELS DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF OVER
THE CENT/SRN MTNS AND MUCH OF THE SC/GA ZONES AS A RESULT. HAVE
SOLID CHC SHRA MENTION TODAY IN THESE AREAS...AND SCHC RA IN THE
AREAS ONLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPGLIDE. THE VERY HIGH PWAT
VALUES WE SAW FRI-SAT HAVE NOW RETREATED SOUTH OF THE WEDGE SO HEAVY
RAIN IS OF MUCH LESS CONCERN TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VIRTUALLY OVERCAST OVER THE WEDGE...AND THE AIRMASS IS COOLER TO
BEGIN WITH. THUS I WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAX TEMPS AROUND 10
DEG BELOW CLIMO. OF COURSE...IF BREAKS ARE ABLE TO FORM AWAY FROM
THE AREAS SEEING PRECIP...THE TEMP FCST COULD QUICKLY BUST.

THOUGH CONFLUENCE IS MINIMAL ALOFT THE SFC HIGH OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC HOLDS STRONG TONIGHT SO THE WEDGE AND WEAK UPGLIDE
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO DROP OFF AFTER PEAK
HEATING ALONG ITS FRINGE...BUT WILL KEEP SCHC POPS EVERYWHERE THRU
THE NIGHT. THE CLOUD LAYER ATOP THE WEDGE DOES BECOME MORE SHALLOW
PER PROG SOUNDINGS BUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL PLAUSIBLE. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN DURING THE NEAR TERM...THE LIKELY EROSION OF COLD
AIR DAMMING ON MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER INSOLATION AND
DESTABILIZATION ON MONDAY...WHILE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABUNDANT...
ESP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM
TO BE PICKING UP ON A FAST MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE EJECTING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND TAKING AIM ON THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
END OF MONDAY. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT MON AFTERNOON/
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FAVORED ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST ROBUST INSTABILITY (I.E. THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES). WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND IN POPS WILL BE FEATURED MON
NIGHT...THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO...AS A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN POP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE FEATURED ONLY IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...RAPIDLY DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
FEATURE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD AIR DAMMING EVENTS...AS 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH OOZES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FAVOR TEMPS
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL NOT BE 0 DURING THIS TIME...THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT NE FLOW WILL ALLOW ENOUGH STABLE AIR TO PENETRATE
INTO THE AREA TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20/30 POPS DURING
THIS TIME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE WEDGE
WILL BE REINFORCED BY STOUT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF TYPICALLY DRY
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS IS FAR FROM A
CERTAINTY...AND TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT WEAK LLVL LIFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIFT
WEAKENS CLOSER TO 0Z...I WILL INDICATE PERIODS OF VFR FROM 18-19 AS
A SHOWER PASSES BY...WITH VFR SETTLING IN AROUND 22Z. WEAK LLVL LIFT
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. ONCE THE FORCING
DEVELOPS...RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS SHOULD READILY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. I WILL INDICATE THE LOWEST CEILINGS FROM 8Z-14Z. THE ARRIVAL
OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO LIFT TO 035 BY 14Z.
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3-6 KTS FROM THE
NE...OR CALM. SHRA ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO KCLT. HOWEVER...SURGE
OF NE FLOW WILL KEEP KAND AND KAVL RESTRICTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ROUNDS OF LLVL LIFT WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN WIDESPREAD
THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 13Z-15Z.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  84%     MED   78%     MED   74%     MED   79%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     MED   70%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     MED   77%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       HIGH  84%     HIGH  81%     MED   77%     HIGH  80%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...NED








000
FXUS62 KGSP 141338
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
938 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...THE KGSP RADAR INDICATED A SURGE OF NE FLOW BEHIND A
BOUNDARY SLIDING SW ACROSS THE GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG COUNTIES.
THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...WITH STEADY TEMPS. AREAS
NORTH...SHOULD SEE LESS RAINFALL COVERAGE AND HIGHER CLOUD
BASES...TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE EXPECTED TRENDS.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...REINFORCING WEDGE-LIKE
RIDGING ALREADY IN PLACE ACRS THE WRN CAROLINAS. WEDGE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF I-20 AS DELINEATED BY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS.

STILL SEEING SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
INTERESTINGLY THIS IS RIGHT WHERE THE 06Z NAM 300K SFC SHOWS THE
BEST UPGLIDE AT 12Z. GOING FWD IN TIME TO 15Z THE WINDS VEER AND THE
SETUP DIMINISHES. HOWEVER AS DIURNAL HEATING GETS UNDERWAY ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE...THIS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
FOR POPS. THE NAM/GFS AND MESO MODELS DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF OVER
THE CENT/SRN MTNS AND MUCH OF THE SC/GA ZONES AS A RESULT. HAVE
SOLID CHC SHRA MENTION TODAY IN THESE AREAS...AND SCHC RA IN THE
AREAS ONLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPGLIDE. THE VERY HIGH PWAT
VALUES WE SAW FRI-SAT HAVE NOW RETREATED SOUTH OF THE WEDGE SO HEAVY
RAIN IS OF MUCH LESS CONCERN TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VIRTUALLY OVERCAST OVER THE WEDGE...AND THE AIRMASS IS COOLER TO
BEGIN WITH. THUS I WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAX TEMPS AROUND 10
DEG BELOW CLIMO. OF COURSE...IF BREAKS ARE ABLE TO FORM AWAY FROM
THE AREAS SEEING PRECIP...THE TEMP FCST COULD QUICKLY BUST.

THOUGH CONFLUENCE IS MINIMAL ALOFT THE SFC HIGH OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC HOLDS STRONG TONIGHT SO THE WEDGE AND WEAK UPGLIDE
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO DROP OFF AFTER PEAK
HEATING ALONG ITS FRINGE...BUT WILL KEEP SCHC POPS EVERYWHERE THRU
THE NIGHT. THE CLOUD LAYER ATOP THE WEDGE DOES BECOME MORE SHALLOW
PER PROG SOUNDINGS BUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL PLAUSIBLE. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN DURING THE NEAR TERM...THE LIKELY EROSION OF COLD
AIR DAMMING ON MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER INSOLATION AND
DESTABILIZATION ON MONDAY...WHILE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABUNDANT...
ESP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM
TO BE PICKING UP ON A FAST MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE EJECTING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND TAKING AIM ON THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
END OF MONDAY. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT MON AFTERNOON/
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FAVORED ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST ROBUST INSTABILITY (I.E. THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES). WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND IN POPS WILL BE FEATURED MON
NIGHT...THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO...AS A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN POP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE FEATURED ONLY IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...RAPIDLY DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
FEATURE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD AIR DAMMING EVENTS...AS 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH OOZES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FAVOR TEMPS
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL NOT BE 0 DURING THIS TIME...THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT NE FLOW WILL ALLOW ENOUGH STABLE AIR TO PENETRATE
INTO THE AREA TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20/30 POPS DURING
THIS TIME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE WEDGE
WILL BE REINFORCED BY STOUT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF TYPICALLY DRY
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS IS FAR FROM A
CERTAINTY...AND TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...WARM UPGLIDE REGIME WILL CONTINUE TODAY ATOP A COOL WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. MVFR CIG PERSISTS UNTIL LIFTING TO VFR AROUND
MIDDAY. THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FIELD DURING THE DAY TODAY
AND IS PROGGED TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... ALBEIT MINOR IN
IMPACT DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH DUE TO LOW IMPACT
AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. NE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL GOING CALM AFTER
SUNSET. THOUGH UPGLIDE TONIGHT IS QUITE WEAK...THE WEDGE IS UNLIKELY
TO RETREAT AND MODEL PROGS OF MVFR CIGS ARE BELIEVABLE. WITH THE
CALM WINDS AND VERY MOIST CONDITIONS SOME LIGHT FOG IS LIKELY ALSO.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MRNG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE ALLOWING WARM UPGLIDE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.
PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ONLY AS VCSH TODAY...WITH
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE ONGOING WARM UPGLIDE PRODUCING LITTLE
PRECIP. WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY ARE
MORE LIKELY THOUGH KAND IS THE ONLY SITE WITH A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING
EFFECTS FROM THESE. WINDS REMAIN NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH SHOULD
SEE CHANNELED SE FLOW DURING THE AFTN. MOST AREAS SHOULD GO CALM
THIS EVENING. RESTRICTIVE CIGS WILL REDEVELOP EXCEPT AT KHKY...ALONG
WITH MORE FOG THAN SEEN THIS MRNG DUE TO THE SIMILARLY MOIST
CONDITIONS BUT LACK OF WIND.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  89%     MED   79%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       MED   72%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  92%     MED   79%
KGMU       HIGH  92%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 141338
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
938 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...THE KGSP RADAR INDICATED A SURGE OF NE FLOW BEHIND A
BOUNDARY SLIDING SW ACROSS THE GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG COUNTIES.
THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...WITH STEADY TEMPS. AREAS
NORTH...SHOULD SEE LESS RAINFALL COVERAGE AND HIGHER CLOUD
BASES...TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE EXPECTED TRENDS.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...REINFORCING WEDGE-LIKE
RIDGING ALREADY IN PLACE ACRS THE WRN CAROLINAS. WEDGE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF I-20 AS DELINEATED BY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS.

STILL SEEING SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
INTERESTINGLY THIS IS RIGHT WHERE THE 06Z NAM 300K SFC SHOWS THE
BEST UPGLIDE AT 12Z. GOING FWD IN TIME TO 15Z THE WINDS VEER AND THE
SETUP DIMINISHES. HOWEVER AS DIURNAL HEATING GETS UNDERWAY ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE...THIS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
FOR POPS. THE NAM/GFS AND MESO MODELS DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF OVER
THE CENT/SRN MTNS AND MUCH OF THE SC/GA ZONES AS A RESULT. HAVE
SOLID CHC SHRA MENTION TODAY IN THESE AREAS...AND SCHC RA IN THE
AREAS ONLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPGLIDE. THE VERY HIGH PWAT
VALUES WE SAW FRI-SAT HAVE NOW RETREATED SOUTH OF THE WEDGE SO HEAVY
RAIN IS OF MUCH LESS CONCERN TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VIRTUALLY OVERCAST OVER THE WEDGE...AND THE AIRMASS IS COOLER TO
BEGIN WITH. THUS I WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAX TEMPS AROUND 10
DEG BELOW CLIMO. OF COURSE...IF BREAKS ARE ABLE TO FORM AWAY FROM
THE AREAS SEEING PRECIP...THE TEMP FCST COULD QUICKLY BUST.

THOUGH CONFLUENCE IS MINIMAL ALOFT THE SFC HIGH OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC HOLDS STRONG TONIGHT SO THE WEDGE AND WEAK UPGLIDE
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO DROP OFF AFTER PEAK
HEATING ALONG ITS FRINGE...BUT WILL KEEP SCHC POPS EVERYWHERE THRU
THE NIGHT. THE CLOUD LAYER ATOP THE WEDGE DOES BECOME MORE SHALLOW
PER PROG SOUNDINGS BUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL PLAUSIBLE. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN DURING THE NEAR TERM...THE LIKELY EROSION OF COLD
AIR DAMMING ON MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER INSOLATION AND
DESTABILIZATION ON MONDAY...WHILE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABUNDANT...
ESP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM
TO BE PICKING UP ON A FAST MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE EJECTING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND TAKING AIM ON THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
END OF MONDAY. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT MON AFTERNOON/
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FAVORED ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST ROBUST INSTABILITY (I.E. THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES). WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND IN POPS WILL BE FEATURED MON
NIGHT...THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO...AS A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN POP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE FEATURED ONLY IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...RAPIDLY DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
FEATURE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD AIR DAMMING EVENTS...AS 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH OOZES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FAVOR TEMPS
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL NOT BE 0 DURING THIS TIME...THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT NE FLOW WILL ALLOW ENOUGH STABLE AIR TO PENETRATE
INTO THE AREA TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20/30 POPS DURING
THIS TIME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE WEDGE
WILL BE REINFORCED BY STOUT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF TYPICALLY DRY
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS IS FAR FROM A
CERTAINTY...AND TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...WARM UPGLIDE REGIME WILL CONTINUE TODAY ATOP A COOL WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. MVFR CIG PERSISTS UNTIL LIFTING TO VFR AROUND
MIDDAY. THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FIELD DURING THE DAY TODAY
AND IS PROGGED TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... ALBEIT MINOR IN
IMPACT DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH DUE TO LOW IMPACT
AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. NE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL GOING CALM AFTER
SUNSET. THOUGH UPGLIDE TONIGHT IS QUITE WEAK...THE WEDGE IS UNLIKELY
TO RETREAT AND MODEL PROGS OF MVFR CIGS ARE BELIEVABLE. WITH THE
CALM WINDS AND VERY MOIST CONDITIONS SOME LIGHT FOG IS LIKELY ALSO.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MRNG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE ALLOWING WARM UPGLIDE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.
PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ONLY AS VCSH TODAY...WITH
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE ONGOING WARM UPGLIDE PRODUCING LITTLE
PRECIP. WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY ARE
MORE LIKELY THOUGH KAND IS THE ONLY SITE WITH A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING
EFFECTS FROM THESE. WINDS REMAIN NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH SHOULD
SEE CHANNELED SE FLOW DURING THE AFTN. MOST AREAS SHOULD GO CALM
THIS EVENING. RESTRICTIVE CIGS WILL REDEVELOP EXCEPT AT KHKY...ALONG
WITH MORE FOG THAN SEEN THIS MRNG DUE TO THE SIMILARLY MOIST
CONDITIONS BUT LACK OF WIND.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  89%     MED   79%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       MED   72%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  92%     MED   79%
KGMU       HIGH  92%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 141054
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...REINFORCING WEDGE-LIKE
RIDGING ALREADY IN PLACE ACRS THE WRN CAROLINAS. WEDGE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF I-20 AS DELINEATED BY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS.

STILL SEEING SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
INTERESTINGLY THIS IS RIGHT WHERE THE 06Z NAM 300K SFC SHOWS THE
BEST UPGLIDE AT 12Z. GOING FWD IN TIME TO 15Z THE WINDS VEER AND THE
SETUP DIMINISHES. HOWEVER AS DIURNAL HEATING GETS UNDERWAY ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE...THIS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
FOR POPS. THE NAM/GFS AND MESO MODELS DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF OVER
THE CENT/SRN MTNS AND MUCH OF THE SC/GA ZONES AS A RESULT. HAVE
SOLID CHC SHRA MENTION TODAY IN THESE AREAS...AND SCHC RA IN THE
AREAS ONLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPGLIDE. THE VERY HIGH PWAT
VALUES WE SAW FRI-SAT HAVE NOW RETREATED SOUTH OF THE WEDGE SO HEAVY
RAIN IS OF MUCH LESS CONCERN TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VIRTUALLY OVERCAST OVER THE WEDGE...AND THE AIRMASS IS COOLER TO
BEGIN WITH. THUS I WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAX TEMPS AROUND 10
DEG BELOW CLIMO. OF COURSE...IF BREAKS ARE ABLE TO FORM AWAY FROM
THE AREAS SEEING PRECIP...THE TEMP FCST COULD QUICKLY BUST.

THOUGH CONFLUENCE IS MINIMAL ALOFT THE SFC HIGH OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC HOLDS STRONG TONIGHT SO THE WEDGE AND WEAK UPGLIDE
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO DROP OFF AFTER PEAK
HEATING ALONG ITS FRINGE...BUT WILL KEEP SCHC POPS EVERYWHERE THRU
THE NIGHT. THE CLOUD LAYER ATOP THE WEDGE DOES BECOME MORE SHALLOW
PER PROG SOUNDINGS BUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL PLAUSIBLE. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN DURING THE NEAR TERM...THE LIKELY EROSION OF COLD
AIR DAMMING ON MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER INSOLATION AND
DESTABILIZATION ON MONDAY...WHILE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABUNDANT...
ESP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM
TO BE PICKING UP ON A FAST MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE EJECTING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND TAKING AIM ON THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
END OF MONDAY. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT MON AFTERNOON/
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FAVORED ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST ROBUST INSTABILITY (I.E. THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES). WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND IN POPS WILL BE FEATURED MON
NIGHT...THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO...AS A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN POP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE FEATURED ONLY IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...RAPIDLY DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
FEATURE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD AIR DAMMING EVENTS...AS 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH OOZES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FAVOR TEMPS
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL NOT BE 0 DURING THIS TIME...THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT NE FLOW WILL ALLOW ENOUGH STABLE AIR TO PENETRATE
INTO THE AREA TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20/30 POPS DURING
THIS TIME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE WEDGE
WILL BE REINFORCED BY STOUT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF TYPICALLY DRY
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS IS FAR FROM A
CERTAINTY...AND TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...WARM UPGLIDE REGIME WILL CONTINUE TODAY ATOP A COOL WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. MVFR CIG PERSISTS UNTIL LIFTING TO VFR AROUND
MIDDAY. THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FIELD DURING THE DAY TODAY
AND IS PROGGED TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... ALBEIT MINOR IN
IMPACT DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH DUE TO LOW IMPACT
AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. NE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL GOING CALM AFTER
SUNSET. THOUGH UPGLIDE TONIGHT IS QUITE WEAK...THE WEDGE IS UNLIKELY
TO RETREAT AND MODEL PROGS OF MVFR CIGS ARE BELIEVABLE. WITH THE
CALM WINDS AND VERY MOIST CONDITIONS SOME LIGHT FOG IS LIKELY ALSO.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MRNG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE ALLOWING WARM UPGLIDE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.
PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ONLY AS VCSH TODAY...WITH
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE ONGOING WARM UPGLIDE PRODUCING LITTLE
PRECIP. WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY ARE
MORE LIKELY THOUGH KAND IS THE ONLY SITE WITH A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING
EFFECTS FROM THESE. WINDS REMAIN NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH SHOULD
SEE CHANNELED SE FLOW DURING THE AFTN. MOST AREAS SHOULD GO CALM
THIS EVENING. RESTRICTIVE CIGS WILL REDEVELOP EXCEPT AT KHKY...ALONG
WITH MORE FOG THAN SEEN THIS MRNG DUE TO THE SIMILARLY MOIST
CONDITIONS BUT LACK OF WIND.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  81%
KGSP       HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%     MED   79%     HIGH  86%
KAVL       MED   76%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       MED   69%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%     MED   79%     HIGH  85%
KAND       HIGH  99%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  93%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 141054
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...REINFORCING WEDGE-LIKE
RIDGING ALREADY IN PLACE ACRS THE WRN CAROLINAS. WEDGE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF I-20 AS DELINEATED BY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS.

STILL SEEING SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
INTERESTINGLY THIS IS RIGHT WHERE THE 06Z NAM 300K SFC SHOWS THE
BEST UPGLIDE AT 12Z. GOING FWD IN TIME TO 15Z THE WINDS VEER AND THE
SETUP DIMINISHES. HOWEVER AS DIURNAL HEATING GETS UNDERWAY ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE...THIS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER
FOR POPS. THE NAM/GFS AND MESO MODELS DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF OVER
THE CENT/SRN MTNS AND MUCH OF THE SC/GA ZONES AS A RESULT. HAVE
SOLID CHC SHRA MENTION TODAY IN THESE AREAS...AND SCHC RA IN THE
AREAS ONLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPGLIDE. THE VERY HIGH PWAT
VALUES WE SAW FRI-SAT HAVE NOW RETREATED SOUTH OF THE WEDGE SO HEAVY
RAIN IS OF MUCH LESS CONCERN TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VIRTUALLY OVERCAST OVER THE WEDGE...AND THE AIRMASS IS COOLER TO
BEGIN WITH. THUS I WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAX TEMPS AROUND 10
DEG BELOW CLIMO. OF COURSE...IF BREAKS ARE ABLE TO FORM AWAY FROM
THE AREAS SEEING PRECIP...THE TEMP FCST COULD QUICKLY BUST.

THOUGH CONFLUENCE IS MINIMAL ALOFT THE SFC HIGH OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC HOLDS STRONG TONIGHT SO THE WEDGE AND WEAK UPGLIDE
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO DROP OFF AFTER PEAK
HEATING ALONG ITS FRINGE...BUT WILL KEEP SCHC POPS EVERYWHERE THRU
THE NIGHT. THE CLOUD LAYER ATOP THE WEDGE DOES BECOME MORE SHALLOW
PER PROG SOUNDINGS BUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL PLAUSIBLE. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN DURING THE NEAR TERM...THE LIKELY EROSION OF COLD
AIR DAMMING ON MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER INSOLATION AND
DESTABILIZATION ON MONDAY...WHILE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABUNDANT...
ESP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM
TO BE PICKING UP ON A FAST MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE EJECTING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND TAKING AIM ON THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
END OF MONDAY. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT MON AFTERNOON/
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FAVORED ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST ROBUST INSTABILITY (I.E. THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES). WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND IN POPS WILL BE FEATURED MON
NIGHT...THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO...AS A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN POP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE FEATURED ONLY IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...RAPIDLY DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
FEATURE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD AIR DAMMING EVENTS...AS 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH OOZES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FAVOR TEMPS
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL NOT BE 0 DURING THIS TIME...THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT NE FLOW WILL ALLOW ENOUGH STABLE AIR TO PENETRATE
INTO THE AREA TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20/30 POPS DURING
THIS TIME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE WEDGE
WILL BE REINFORCED BY STOUT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF TYPICALLY DRY
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS IS FAR FROM A
CERTAINTY...AND TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...WARM UPGLIDE REGIME WILL CONTINUE TODAY ATOP A COOL WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. MVFR CIG PERSISTS UNTIL LIFTING TO VFR AROUND
MIDDAY. THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FIELD DURING THE DAY TODAY
AND IS PROGGED TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... ALBEIT MINOR IN
IMPACT DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH DUE TO LOW IMPACT
AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. NE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL GOING CALM AFTER
SUNSET. THOUGH UPGLIDE TONIGHT IS QUITE WEAK...THE WEDGE IS UNLIKELY
TO RETREAT AND MODEL PROGS OF MVFR CIGS ARE BELIEVABLE. WITH THE
CALM WINDS AND VERY MOIST CONDITIONS SOME LIGHT FOG IS LIKELY ALSO.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MRNG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE ALLOWING WARM UPGLIDE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.
PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ONLY AS VCSH TODAY...WITH
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE ONGOING WARM UPGLIDE PRODUCING LITTLE
PRECIP. WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY ARE
MORE LIKELY THOUGH KAND IS THE ONLY SITE WITH A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING
EFFECTS FROM THESE. WINDS REMAIN NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH SHOULD
SEE CHANNELED SE FLOW DURING THE AFTN. MOST AREAS SHOULD GO CALM
THIS EVENING. RESTRICTIVE CIGS WILL REDEVELOP EXCEPT AT KHKY...ALONG
WITH MORE FOG THAN SEEN THIS MRNG DUE TO THE SIMILARLY MOIST
CONDITIONS BUT LACK OF WIND.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       MED   67%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  81%
KGSP       HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%     MED   79%     HIGH  86%
KAVL       MED   76%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       MED   69%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%     MED   79%     HIGH  85%
KAND       HIGH  99%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  93%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 140842
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
441 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH ITSELF STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...A QUICK UPDATE TO BETTER REFLECT THE EXTENT OF
THE SHOWERS AT THE CURRENT TIME. LATEST MESO MODEL RUNS STILL
SUPPORT INCREASING POPS INTO THE MRNG AS DO THE ISENTROPIC TRENDS
FROM THE 06Z NAM. DID TRY TO BETTER DISTINGUISH THE EARLY MRNG
UPGLIDE FORCED PRECIP FROM THE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED
DURING THE DAY.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...REINFORCING WEDGE-LIKE RIDGING ALREADY IN
PLACE ACRS THE WRN CAROLINAS. WEDGE FRONT APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH
OF I-20 AS DELINEATED BY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS. PER MODEL LLVL
FIELDS...WEAK UPGLIDE OVER THE WEDGE IS SHOWN TO INCREASE THRU
DAYBREAK THEN DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE. SO THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER THE PIEDMONT IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER AS DIURNAL HEATING GETS UNDERWAY
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE...THIS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE
PRIMARY DRIVER FOR POPS. THE NAM/GFS AND MESO MODELS DEVELOP SOME
LIGHT QPF OVER THE CENT/SRN MTNS AND MUCH OF THE SC/GA ZONES AS A
RESULT. KEPT SOLID CHC SHRA MENTION TODAY IN THESE AREAS...AND SCHC
RA IN THE AREAS ONLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPGLIDE. THE VERY
HIGH PWAT VALUES WE SAW FRI-SAT HAVE NOW RETREATED SOUTH OF THE
WEDGE SO HEAVY RAIN IS OF MUCH LESS CONCERN TODAY. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VIRTUALLY OVERCAST OVER THE WEDGE...AND THE
AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER TO BEGIN WITH. THUS I WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 DEG BELOW CLIMO. OF COURSE...IF BREAKS
ARE ABLE TO FORM AWAY FROM THE AREAS SEEING PRECIP...THE TEMP FCST
COULD QUICKLY BUST.

THOUGH CONFLUENCE IS MINIMAL ALOFT THE SFC HIGH OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC HOLDS STRONG TONIGHT SO THE WEDGE AND WEAK UPGLIDE
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO DROP OFF AFTER PEAK
HEATING ALONG ITS FRINGE...BUT WILL KEEP SCHC POPS EVERYWHERE THRU
THE NIGHT. THE CLOUD LAYER ATOP THE WEDGE DOES BECOME MORE SHALLOW
PER PROG SOUNDINGS BUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL PLAUSIBLE. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN DURING THE NEAR TERM...THE LIKELY EROSION OF COLD
AIR DAMMING ON MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER INSOLATION AND
DESTABILIZATION ON MONDAY...WHILE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABUNDANT...
ESP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM
TO BE PICKING UP ON A FAST MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE EJECTING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND TAKING AIM ON THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
END OF MONDAY. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT MON AFTERNOON/
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FAVORED ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST ROBUST INSTABILITY (I.E. THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES). WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND IN POPS WILL BE FEATURED MON
NIGHT...THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO...AS A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN POP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE FEATURED ONLY IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...RAPIDLY DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
FEATURE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD AIR DAMMING EVENTS...AS 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH OOZES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FAVOR TEMPS
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL NOT BE 0 DURING THIS TIME...THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT NE FLOW WILL ALLOW ENOUGH STABLE AIR TO PENETRATE
INTO THE AREA TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20/30 POPS DURING
THIS TIME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE WEDGE
WILL BE REINFORCED BY STOUT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF TYPICALLY DRY
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS IS FAR FROM A
CERTAINTY...AND TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT /09Z UPDATE/...STRONGEST SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE REMAINS FOR
CIGS TO BOTTOM OUT AT MVFR EARLY THIS MRNG...IN WARM UPGLIDE REGIME
ATOP A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR DECK
HAVE OCCURRED AT THE FIELD AND NEARBY SITES AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE...SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR VFR. NELY MRNG WINDS WILL
KEEP THE BDY LAYER MIXED AND FOG FREE. MVFR CIG CONTINUES UNTIL THEY
LIFT TO VFR MIDDAY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
MRNG...BUT THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BE NOT TOO FAR S OF THE FIELD DURING
THE DAY TODAY AMD IS PROGGED TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...
ALBEIT MINOR IN IMPACT DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR LOW CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. NE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL
GOING CALM AFTER SUNSET.

ELSEWHERE...CIGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MRNG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE ALLOWING WARM UPGLIDE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY MVFR AS N TO NE BREEZES PERSIST...KEEPING
SFC CONDITIONS MIXED. IF WINDS GO CALM...PARTICULARLY AT SITES WHICH
SAW RAIN YESTERDAY...IFR MAY DEVELOP. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE ONLY AS VCSH IF AT ALL TODAY...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING
THE ONGOING WARM UPGLIDE PRODUCING LITTLE PRECIP...AND INSTEAD
SHOWING WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY.
HENCE NO MENTION AT KHKY. WINDS REMAIN NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH
SHOULD SEE CHANNELED SE FLOW DURING THE AFTN. MOST AREAS SHOULD GO
CALM THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       MED   76%     MED   72%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       MED   78%     HIGH  95%     MED   77%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%     MED   79%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH  94%     MED   77%     HIGH  89%
KAND       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     MED   78%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY






000
FXUS62 KGSP 140842
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
441 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH ITSELF STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...A QUICK UPDATE TO BETTER REFLECT THE EXTENT OF
THE SHOWERS AT THE CURRENT TIME. LATEST MESO MODEL RUNS STILL
SUPPORT INCREASING POPS INTO THE MRNG AS DO THE ISENTROPIC TRENDS
FROM THE 06Z NAM. DID TRY TO BETTER DISTINGUISH THE EARLY MRNG
UPGLIDE FORCED PRECIP FROM THE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED
DURING THE DAY.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...REINFORCING WEDGE-LIKE RIDGING ALREADY IN
PLACE ACRS THE WRN CAROLINAS. WEDGE FRONT APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH
OF I-20 AS DELINEATED BY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS. PER MODEL LLVL
FIELDS...WEAK UPGLIDE OVER THE WEDGE IS SHOWN TO INCREASE THRU
DAYBREAK THEN DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE. SO THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER THE PIEDMONT IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER AS DIURNAL HEATING GETS UNDERWAY
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE...THIS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE
PRIMARY DRIVER FOR POPS. THE NAM/GFS AND MESO MODELS DEVELOP SOME
LIGHT QPF OVER THE CENT/SRN MTNS AND MUCH OF THE SC/GA ZONES AS A
RESULT. KEPT SOLID CHC SHRA MENTION TODAY IN THESE AREAS...AND SCHC
RA IN THE AREAS ONLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPGLIDE. THE VERY
HIGH PWAT VALUES WE SAW FRI-SAT HAVE NOW RETREATED SOUTH OF THE
WEDGE SO HEAVY RAIN IS OF MUCH LESS CONCERN TODAY. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VIRTUALLY OVERCAST OVER THE WEDGE...AND THE
AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER TO BEGIN WITH. THUS I WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 DEG BELOW CLIMO. OF COURSE...IF BREAKS
ARE ABLE TO FORM AWAY FROM THE AREAS SEEING PRECIP...THE TEMP FCST
COULD QUICKLY BUST.

THOUGH CONFLUENCE IS MINIMAL ALOFT THE SFC HIGH OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC HOLDS STRONG TONIGHT SO THE WEDGE AND WEAK UPGLIDE
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO DROP OFF AFTER PEAK
HEATING ALONG ITS FRINGE...BUT WILL KEEP SCHC POPS EVERYWHERE THRU
THE NIGHT. THE CLOUD LAYER ATOP THE WEDGE DOES BECOME MORE SHALLOW
PER PROG SOUNDINGS BUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL PLAUSIBLE. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN DURING THE NEAR TERM...THE LIKELY EROSION OF COLD
AIR DAMMING ON MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER INSOLATION AND
DESTABILIZATION ON MONDAY...WHILE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABUNDANT...
ESP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM
TO BE PICKING UP ON A FAST MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE EJECTING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND TAKING AIM ON THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
END OF MONDAY. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT MON AFTERNOON/
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FAVORED ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST ROBUST INSTABILITY (I.E. THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES). WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND IN POPS WILL BE FEATURED MON
NIGHT...THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO...AS A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN POP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE FEATURED ONLY IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...RAPIDLY DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
FEATURE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD AIR DAMMING EVENTS...AS 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH OOZES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FAVOR TEMPS
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL NOT BE 0 DURING THIS TIME...THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT NE FLOW WILL ALLOW ENOUGH STABLE AIR TO PENETRATE
INTO THE AREA TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20/30 POPS DURING
THIS TIME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE WEDGE
WILL BE REINFORCED BY STOUT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF TYPICALLY DRY
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS IS FAR FROM A
CERTAINTY...AND TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT /09Z UPDATE/...STRONGEST SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE REMAINS FOR
CIGS TO BOTTOM OUT AT MVFR EARLY THIS MRNG...IN WARM UPGLIDE REGIME
ATOP A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR DECK
HAVE OCCURRED AT THE FIELD AND NEARBY SITES AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE...SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR VFR. NELY MRNG WINDS WILL
KEEP THE BDY LAYER MIXED AND FOG FREE. MVFR CIG CONTINUES UNTIL THEY
LIFT TO VFR MIDDAY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
MRNG...BUT THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BE NOT TOO FAR S OF THE FIELD DURING
THE DAY TODAY AMD IS PROGGED TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...
ALBEIT MINOR IN IMPACT DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR LOW CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. NE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL
GOING CALM AFTER SUNSET.

ELSEWHERE...CIGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MRNG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE ALLOWING WARM UPGLIDE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY MVFR AS N TO NE BREEZES PERSIST...KEEPING
SFC CONDITIONS MIXED. IF WINDS GO CALM...PARTICULARLY AT SITES WHICH
SAW RAIN YESTERDAY...IFR MAY DEVELOP. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE ONLY AS VCSH IF AT ALL TODAY...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING
THE ONGOING WARM UPGLIDE PRODUCING LITTLE PRECIP...AND INSTEAD
SHOWING WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEDGE BOUNDARY.
HENCE NO MENTION AT KHKY. WINDS REMAIN NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH
SHOULD SEE CHANNELED SE FLOW DURING THE AFTN. MOST AREAS SHOULD GO
CALM THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       MED   76%     MED   72%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       MED   78%     HIGH  95%     MED   77%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%     MED   79%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH  94%     MED   77%     HIGH  89%
KAND       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     MED   78%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 140739
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MRNG...REINFORCING
WEDGE-LIKE RIDGING ALREADY IN PLACE ACRS THE WRN CAROLINAS. WEDGE
FRONT APPEARS TO BE ACRS THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS DELINEATED BY WINDS
AND DEWPOINTS. PER MODEL LLVL FIELDS...WEAK UPGLIDE OVER THE WEDGE
IS SHOWN TO INCREASE THRU DAYBREAK THEN DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE. SO
THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT IS
EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER AS
DIURNAL HEATING GETS UNDERWAY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
WEDGE...THIS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR POPS. THE
NAM/GFS AND MESO MODELS DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE CENT/SRN
MTNS AND MUCH OF THE SC/GA ZONES AS A RESULT. KEPT SOLID CHC SHRA
MENTION TODAY IN THESE AREAS...AND SCHC RA IN THE AREAS ONLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPGLIDE. THE VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES WE SAW
FRI-SAT HAVE NOW RETREATED SOUTH OF THE WEDGE SO HEAVY RAIN IS OF
MUCH LESS CONCERN TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VIRTUALLY
OVERCAST OVER THE WEDGE...AND THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER TO BEGIN
WITH. THUS I WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 DEG
BELOW CLIMO. OF COURSE...IF BREAKS ARE ABLE TO FORM AWAY FROM THE
AREAS SEEING PRECIP...THE TEMP FCST COULD QUICKLY BUST.

THOUGH CONFLUENCE IS MINIMAL ALOFT THE SFC HIGH OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC HOLDS STRONG TONIGHT SO THE WEDGE AND WEAK UPGLIDE
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO DROP OFF AFTER PEAK
HEATING ALONG ITS FRINGE...BUT WILL KEEP SCHC POPS EVERYWHERE THRU
THE NIGHT. THE CLOUD LAYER ATOP THE WEDGE DOES BECOME MORE SHALLOW
PER PROG SOUNDINGS BUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL PLAUSIBLE. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN DURING THE NEAR TERM...THE LIKELY EROSION OF COLD
AIR DAMMING ON MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER INSOLATION AND
DESTABILIZATION ON MONDAY...WHILE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABUNDANT...
ESP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM
TO BE PICKING UP ON A FAST MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE EJECTING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND TAKING AIM ON THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
END OF MONDAY. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT MON AFTERNOON/
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FAVORED ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST ROBUST INSTABILITY (I.E. THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES). WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND IN POPS WILL BE FEATURED MON
NIGHT...THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO...AS A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN POP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE FEATURED ONLY IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...RAPIDLY DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
FEATURE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD AIR DAMMING EVENTS...AS 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH OOZES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FAVOR TEMPS
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL NOT BE 0 DURING THIS TIME...THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT NE FLOW WILL ALLOW ENOUGH STABLE AIR TO PENETRATE
INTO THE AREA TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20/30 POPS DURING
THIS TIME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE WEDGE
WILL BE REINFORCED BY STOUT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF TYPICALLY DRY
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS IS FAR FROM A
CERTAINTY...AND TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...STRONGEST SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE REMAINS FOR CIGS TO BOTTOM
OUT AT MVFR EARLY THIS MRNG...IN WARM UPGLIDE REGIME ATOP A COOL
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE BDY LAYER MIXED AND FOG FREE. MVFR CIG CONTINUES UNTIL THEY
LIFT TO VFR MIDDAY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
MRNG...BUT THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BE NOT TOO FAR S OF THE FIELD DURING
THE DAY TODAY AMD IS PROGGED TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...
ALBEIT MINOR IN IMPACT DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR LOW CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. NE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL
GOING CALM AFTER SUNSET.

ELSEWHERE...CIGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MRNG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE ALLOWING WARM UPGLIDE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NO LOWER THAN MVFR AS N TO NE BREEZES
PERSIST...KEEPING SFC CONDITIONS MIXED. KAND IS AN EXCEPTION AS THE
SITE SAW INTENSE RAINFALL SATURDAY AFTN AND IS NEARER THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY...THUS PROGGED TO GO IFR AT DAYBREAK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
LOW ENOUGH TO MENTION AS VCSH IF AT ALL TODAY...WITH MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE ONGOING WARM UPGLIDE PRODUCING LITTLE PRECIP...AND
INSTEAD SHOWING WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY. HENCE NO MENTION AT KHKY. WINDS REMAIN NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL
WHICH SHOULD SEE CHANNELED SE FLOW DURING THE AFTN. MOST AREAS
SHOULD GO CALM THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   79%     MED   72%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       MED   79%     HIGH  96%     MED   79%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH  80%     HIGH  95%     MED   79%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH  85%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  85%     MED   78%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 140739
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE...WHICH AGAIN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MRNG...REINFORCING
WEDGE-LIKE RIDGING ALREADY IN PLACE ACRS THE WRN CAROLINAS. WEDGE
FRONT APPEARS TO BE ACRS THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS DELINEATED BY WINDS
AND DEWPOINTS. PER MODEL LLVL FIELDS...WEAK UPGLIDE OVER THE WEDGE
IS SHOWN TO INCREASE THRU DAYBREAK THEN DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE. SO
THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER THE NC PIEDMONT IS
EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER AS
DIURNAL HEATING GETS UNDERWAY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
WEDGE...THIS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR POPS. THE
NAM/GFS AND MESO MODELS DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE CENT/SRN
MTNS AND MUCH OF THE SC/GA ZONES AS A RESULT. KEPT SOLID CHC SHRA
MENTION TODAY IN THESE AREAS...AND SCHC RA IN THE AREAS ONLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPGLIDE. THE VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES WE SAW
FRI-SAT HAVE NOW RETREATED SOUTH OF THE WEDGE SO HEAVY RAIN IS OF
MUCH LESS CONCERN TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VIRTUALLY
OVERCAST OVER THE WEDGE...AND THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER TO BEGIN
WITH. THUS I WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 DEG
BELOW CLIMO. OF COURSE...IF BREAKS ARE ABLE TO FORM AWAY FROM THE
AREAS SEEING PRECIP...THE TEMP FCST COULD QUICKLY BUST.

THOUGH CONFLUENCE IS MINIMAL ALOFT THE SFC HIGH OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC HOLDS STRONG TONIGHT SO THE WEDGE AND WEAK UPGLIDE
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO DROP OFF AFTER PEAK
HEATING ALONG ITS FRINGE...BUT WILL KEEP SCHC POPS EVERYWHERE THRU
THE NIGHT. THE CLOUD LAYER ATOP THE WEDGE DOES BECOME MORE SHALLOW
PER PROG SOUNDINGS BUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL PLAUSIBLE. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN DURING THE NEAR TERM...THE LIKELY EROSION OF COLD
AIR DAMMING ON MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER INSOLATION AND
DESTABILIZATION ON MONDAY...WHILE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABUNDANT...
ESP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM
TO BE PICKING UP ON A FAST MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE EJECTING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND TAKING AIM ON THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
END OF MONDAY. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT MON AFTERNOON/
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FAVORED ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST ROBUST INSTABILITY (I.E. THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES). WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND IN POPS WILL BE FEATURED MON
NIGHT...THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO...AS A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE AREA BY
EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN POP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE FEATURED ONLY IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...RAPIDLY DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
FEATURE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD AIR DAMMING EVENTS...AS 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH OOZES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FAVOR TEMPS
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL NOT BE 0 DURING THIS TIME...THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT NE FLOW WILL ALLOW ENOUGH STABLE AIR TO PENETRATE
INTO THE AREA TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20/30 POPS DURING
THIS TIME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE WEDGE
WILL BE REINFORCED BY STOUT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF TYPICALLY DRY
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS IS FAR FROM A
CERTAINTY...AND TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...STRONGEST SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE REMAINS FOR CIGS TO BOTTOM
OUT AT MVFR EARLY THIS MRNG...IN WARM UPGLIDE REGIME ATOP A COOL
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE BDY LAYER MIXED AND FOG FREE. MVFR CIG CONTINUES UNTIL THEY
LIFT TO VFR MIDDAY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
MRNG...BUT THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BE NOT TOO FAR S OF THE FIELD DURING
THE DAY TODAY AMD IS PROGGED TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...
ALBEIT MINOR IN IMPACT DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR LOW CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. NE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL
GOING CALM AFTER SUNSET.

ELSEWHERE...CIGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MRNG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE ALLOWING WARM UPGLIDE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NO LOWER THAN MVFR AS N TO NE BREEZES
PERSIST...KEEPING SFC CONDITIONS MIXED. KAND IS AN EXCEPTION AS THE
SITE SAW INTENSE RAINFALL SATURDAY AFTN AND IS NEARER THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY...THUS PROGGED TO GO IFR AT DAYBREAK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
LOW ENOUGH TO MENTION AS VCSH IF AT ALL TODAY...WITH MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE ONGOING WARM UPGLIDE PRODUCING LITTLE PRECIP...AND
INSTEAD SHOWING WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY. HENCE NO MENTION AT KHKY. WINDS REMAIN NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL
WHICH SHOULD SEE CHANNELED SE FLOW DURING THE AFTN. MOST AREAS
SHOULD GO CALM THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   79%     MED   72%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       MED   79%     HIGH  96%     MED   79%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH  80%     HIGH  95%     MED   79%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH  85%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  85%     MED   78%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 140606
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...CONVECTION REALLY WOUND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT THOUGH A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. WEDGE
FRONT APPEARS TO BE ACRS THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS DELINEATED BY WINDS
AND DEWPOINTS. GENERALLY EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT TO
CONTINUE...THOUGH THERE IS WEAK UPGLIDE ONGOING OVER THE WEDGE WHICH
IS SHOWN TO INCREASE BEFORE SUNRISE. MODELS DO NOT RESPOND WITH MUCH
QPF BUT I DID RETAIN AN INCREASE IN POPS THRU THE MRNG...WITH
UPGLIDE WEAKENING AS DIURNAL HEATING GETS UNDERWAY ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE. THE NAM/GFS AND MESO MODELS DEVELOP SOME
LIGHT QPF OVER THE CENT/SRN MTNS AND MUCH OF THE SC/GA ZONES
EVIDENTLY FOR THIS REASON. REVISED POP TRENDS THRU 12Z MON ARE
PRETTY SIMILAR TO BEFORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE
CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL... BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE LOOKS
WEAK...SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW END FOR SUNDAY. THE SW HALF
OF THE AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...AND
EVEN SOME SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
WEDGE AIRMASS TYPICALLY DOES NOT REACH. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS UP TO 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...WE APPEAR TO HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGES WILL WAX AND WANE AS THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT...WHILE AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG OUT W TO E TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS PASS BY TO OUR N. THE PROBLEM IS THAT EACH PASSING HIGH
STAYS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE WDEGE NEVER REALLY LOCKS IN. THE FIRST
SUCH WEDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART ON MONDAY AS WHAT
PASSES FOR A PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER
AND A LEE TROF ESSENTIALLY OVERWHELMS THE REMNANT COOL POOL E OF THE
MTNS. AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND OF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ASSUMING THE COOL POOL DRAINS AND WE
GET SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HAVE
CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SO A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BRIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING NEW PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR THE MTNS. WILL NUDGE THE FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER POP
SEEN IN THE NEW MOSGUIDE AND AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST SREF. TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY AGAIN IF NEW PRECIP DEVELOPS PER THE GFS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT THEM THE SAME
ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICK UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO
SOME DEGREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LIFT NE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND LIKELY BE IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA BY NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...A NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST ON TUES
AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE AT 00Z WED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS. THE HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND REMAIN THERE THRU NEW DAY 7. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE/STRENGTHEN A COLD AIR WEDGE PUT
IN PLACE BY THE NEAR STATIONARY SFC HIGH TO THE NE. THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS IS GOOD WRT THIS WEDGE
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND SO OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVING. THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR WED WITH A
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE CWFA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER I
DID LOWER VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRONGER WEDGE PATTERN. I ALSO REDUCED THE OVERALL QPF EXPECTED FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW NORMAL ON WED AND DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AND THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
STRONGER...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...STRONGEST SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE REMAINS FOR CIGS TO BOTTOM
OUT AT MVFR EARLY THIS MRNG...IN WARM UPGLIDE REGIME ATOP A COOL
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE BDY LAYER MIXED AND FOG FREE. MVFR CIG CONTINUES UNTIL THEY
LIFT TO VFR MIDDAY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
MRNG...BUT THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BE NOT TOO FAR S OF THE FIELD DURING
THE DAY TODAY AMD IS PROGGED TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...
ALBEIT MINOR IN IMPACT DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR LOW CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. NE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL
GOING CALM AFTER SUNSET.

ELSEWHERE...CIGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MRNG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE ALLOWING WARM UPGLIDE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NO LOWER THAN MVFR AS N TO NE BREEZES
PERSIST...KEEPING SFC CONDITIONS MIXED. KAND IS AN EXCEPTION AS THE
SITE SAW INTENSE RAINFALL SATURDAY AFTN AND IS NEARER THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY...THUS PROGGED TO GO IFR AT DAYBREAK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
LOW ENOUGH TO MENTION AS VCSH IF AT ALL TODAY...WITH MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE ONGOING WARM UPGLIDE PRODUCING LITTLE PRECIP...AND
INSTEAD SHOWING WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY. HENCE NO MENTION AT KHKY. WINDS REMAIN NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL
WHICH SHOULD SEE CHANNELED SE FLOW DURING THE AFTN. MOST AREAS
SHOULD GO CALM THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     MED   72%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       MED   79%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  82%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  82%
KAND       HIGH  92%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  88%     MED   78%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 140606
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...CONVECTION REALLY WOUND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT THOUGH A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. WEDGE
FRONT APPEARS TO BE ACRS THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS DELINEATED BY WINDS
AND DEWPOINTS. GENERALLY EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT TO
CONTINUE...THOUGH THERE IS WEAK UPGLIDE ONGOING OVER THE WEDGE WHICH
IS SHOWN TO INCREASE BEFORE SUNRISE. MODELS DO NOT RESPOND WITH MUCH
QPF BUT I DID RETAIN AN INCREASE IN POPS THRU THE MRNG...WITH
UPGLIDE WEAKENING AS DIURNAL HEATING GETS UNDERWAY ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE. THE NAM/GFS AND MESO MODELS DEVELOP SOME
LIGHT QPF OVER THE CENT/SRN MTNS AND MUCH OF THE SC/GA ZONES
EVIDENTLY FOR THIS REASON. REVISED POP TRENDS THRU 12Z MON ARE
PRETTY SIMILAR TO BEFORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE
CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL... BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE LOOKS
WEAK...SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW END FOR SUNDAY. THE SW HALF
OF THE AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...AND
EVEN SOME SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
WEDGE AIRMASS TYPICALLY DOES NOT REACH. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS UP TO 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...WE APPEAR TO HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGES WILL WAX AND WANE AS THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT...WHILE AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG OUT W TO E TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS PASS BY TO OUR N. THE PROBLEM IS THAT EACH PASSING HIGH
STAYS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE WDEGE NEVER REALLY LOCKS IN. THE FIRST
SUCH WEDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART ON MONDAY AS WHAT
PASSES FOR A PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER
AND A LEE TROF ESSENTIALLY OVERWHELMS THE REMNANT COOL POOL E OF THE
MTNS. AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND OF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ASSUMING THE COOL POOL DRAINS AND WE
GET SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HAVE
CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SO A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BRIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING NEW PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR THE MTNS. WILL NUDGE THE FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER POP
SEEN IN THE NEW MOSGUIDE AND AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST SREF. TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY AGAIN IF NEW PRECIP DEVELOPS PER THE GFS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT THEM THE SAME
ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICK UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO
SOME DEGREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LIFT NE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND LIKELY BE IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA BY NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...A NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST ON TUES
AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE AT 00Z WED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS. THE HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND REMAIN THERE THRU NEW DAY 7. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE/STRENGTHEN A COLD AIR WEDGE PUT
IN PLACE BY THE NEAR STATIONARY SFC HIGH TO THE NE. THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS IS GOOD WRT THIS WEDGE
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND SO OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVING. THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR WED WITH A
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE CWFA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER I
DID LOWER VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRONGER WEDGE PATTERN. I ALSO REDUCED THE OVERALL QPF EXPECTED FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW NORMAL ON WED AND DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AND THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
STRONGER...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...STRONGEST SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE REMAINS FOR CIGS TO BOTTOM
OUT AT MVFR EARLY THIS MRNG...IN WARM UPGLIDE REGIME ATOP A COOL
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE BDY LAYER MIXED AND FOG FREE. MVFR CIG CONTINUES UNTIL THEY
LIFT TO VFR MIDDAY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
MRNG...BUT THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BE NOT TOO FAR S OF THE FIELD DURING
THE DAY TODAY AMD IS PROGGED TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...
ALBEIT MINOR IN IMPACT DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR LOW CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. NE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL
GOING CALM AFTER SUNSET.

ELSEWHERE...CIGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MRNG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE ALLOWING WARM UPGLIDE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NO LOWER THAN MVFR AS N TO NE BREEZES
PERSIST...KEEPING SFC CONDITIONS MIXED. KAND IS AN EXCEPTION AS THE
SITE SAW INTENSE RAINFALL SATURDAY AFTN AND IS NEARER THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY...THUS PROGGED TO GO IFR AT DAYBREAK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
LOW ENOUGH TO MENTION AS VCSH IF AT ALL TODAY...WITH MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE ONGOING WARM UPGLIDE PRODUCING LITTLE PRECIP...AND
INSTEAD SHOWING WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY. HENCE NO MENTION AT KHKY. WINDS REMAIN NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL
WHICH SHOULD SEE CHANNELED SE FLOW DURING THE AFTN. MOST AREAS
SHOULD GO CALM THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     MED   72%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       MED   79%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  82%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  82%
KAND       HIGH  92%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  88%     MED   78%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 140200
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0200 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...FAVORING A SWATH FROM SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE. SKY COVER
WAS UPDATED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY...INTRODUCING BREAKS IN THE NORTH
AND WEST.

AT 900 PM EDT SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NATION. MODEL DATA SHOWED A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE FALL LINE IN THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS
AND GA.

MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
FRONT IN THE SC MIDLANDS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING NW FORM THIS
AREA HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO
AREA...BUT APPEAR TO BE SLOWING. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE US 74 CORRIDOR IN THE NC FOOTHILLS APPEARS TO BE ON
A COLLISION COURSE WITH THE CHARLOTTE AREA STORMS. MORE CONVECTION
WAS NOTED IN NE GA...AND THE SW NC MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY WANING THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A
VERY MOIST PROFILE...WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND BOUNDARIES COLLIDING
AND WANDERING ABOUT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE TO LIGHT TO
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...BUT GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS VERY LOW
VISIBILITY IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL IN RELATIVELY COOL NE FLOW.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL...
BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE LOOKS WEAK...SO PRECIP CHANCES
ARE ON THE LOW END FOR SUNDAY. THE SW HALF OF THE AREA STANDS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...AND EVEN SOME SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE WEDGE AIRMASS
TYPICALLY DOES NOT REACH. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
MAX TEMPS UP TO 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...WE APPEAR TO HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGES WILL WAX AND WANE AS THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT...WHILE AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG OUT W TO E TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS PASS BY TO OUR N. THE PROBLEM IS THAT EACH PASSING HIGH
STAYS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE WDEGE NEVER REALLY LOCKS IN. THE FIRST
SUCH WEDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART ON MONDAY AS WHAT
PASSES FOR A PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER
AND A LEE TROF ESSENTIALLY OVERWHELMS THE REMNANT COOL POOL E OF THE
MTNS. AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND OF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ASSUMING THE COOL POOL DRAINS AND WE
GET SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HAVE
CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SO A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BRIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING NEW PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR THE MTNS. WILL NUDGE THE FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER POP
SEEN IN THE NEW MOSGUIDE AND AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST SREF. TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY AGAIN IF NEW PRECIP DEVELOPS PER THE GFS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT THEM THE SAME
ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICK UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO
SOME DEGREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LIFT NE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND LIKELY BE IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA BY NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...A NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST ON TUES
AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE AT 00Z WED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS. THE HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND REMAIN THERE THRU NEW DAY 7. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE/STRENGTHEN A COLD AIR WEDGE PUT
IN PLACE BY THE NEAR STATIONARY SFC HIGH TO THE NE. THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS IS GOOD WRT THIS WEDGE
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND SO OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVING. THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR WED WITH A
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE CWFA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER I
DID LOWER VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRONGER WEDGE PATTERN. I ALSO REDUCED THE OVERALL QPF EXPECTED FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW NORMAL ON WED AND DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AND THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
STRONGER...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN MVFR CIG FORMING THIS EVENING...THEN
AN IFR CIG BEFORE DAWN...WITH MVFR VSBY IN FOG BY DAYBREAK...AS
MOISTURE PERSISTS IN THE LOW LEVELS. ALTHOUGH VSBY IMPROVES IN THE
MORNING...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY;Y IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE NE. CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LIMITED IN
COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FORM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. GUIDANCE
FAVORS IFR TO LIFR VSBY IN FOG AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT...WITH MVFR AT
KGSP AND KAND...BUT LEAVES KHKY AND KGMU WITH VFR VSBY. CIG ON THE
OTHER HAND LOWER TO MVFR EVERYWHERE BY DAYBREAK...NOT RETURNING TO
MVFR UNTIL MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL IMPROVE FROM THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY AFTER THIS TAF PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER FROM NW
TONIGHT...TO SE ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH  84%     MED   79%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  84%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%     MED   75%
KAND       HIGH  89%     MED   79%     HIGH  95%     MED   69%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT







000
FXUS62 KGSP 140200
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0200 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...FAVORING A SWATH FROM SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE. SKY COVER
WAS UPDATED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY...INTRODUCING BREAKS IN THE NORTH
AND WEST.

AT 900 PM EDT SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NATION. MODEL DATA SHOWED A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE FALL LINE IN THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS
AND GA.

MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
FRONT IN THE SC MIDLANDS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING NW FORM THIS
AREA HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO
AREA...BUT APPEAR TO BE SLOWING. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE US 74 CORRIDOR IN THE NC FOOTHILLS APPEARS TO BE ON
A COLLISION COURSE WITH THE CHARLOTTE AREA STORMS. MORE CONVECTION
WAS NOTED IN NE GA...AND THE SW NC MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY WANING THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A
VERY MOIST PROFILE...WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND BOUNDARIES COLLIDING
AND WANDERING ABOUT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE TO LIGHT TO
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...BUT GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS VERY LOW
VISIBILITY IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL IN RELATIVELY COOL NE FLOW.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL...
BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE LOOKS WEAK...SO PRECIP CHANCES
ARE ON THE LOW END FOR SUNDAY. THE SW HALF OF THE AREA STANDS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...AND EVEN SOME SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE WEDGE AIRMASS
TYPICALLY DOES NOT REACH. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
MAX TEMPS UP TO 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...WE APPEAR TO HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGES WILL WAX AND WANE AS THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT...WHILE AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG OUT W TO E TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS PASS BY TO OUR N. THE PROBLEM IS THAT EACH PASSING HIGH
STAYS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE WDEGE NEVER REALLY LOCKS IN. THE FIRST
SUCH WEDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART ON MONDAY AS WHAT
PASSES FOR A PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER
AND A LEE TROF ESSENTIALLY OVERWHELMS THE REMNANT COOL POOL E OF THE
MTNS. AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND OF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ASSUMING THE COOL POOL DRAINS AND WE
GET SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HAVE
CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SO A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BRIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING NEW PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR THE MTNS. WILL NUDGE THE FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER POP
SEEN IN THE NEW MOSGUIDE AND AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST SREF. TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY AGAIN IF NEW PRECIP DEVELOPS PER THE GFS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT THEM THE SAME
ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICK UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO
SOME DEGREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LIFT NE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND LIKELY BE IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA BY NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...A NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST ON TUES
AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE AT 00Z WED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS. THE HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND REMAIN THERE THRU NEW DAY 7. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE/STRENGTHEN A COLD AIR WEDGE PUT
IN PLACE BY THE NEAR STATIONARY SFC HIGH TO THE NE. THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS IS GOOD WRT THIS WEDGE
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND SO OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVING. THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR WED WITH A
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE CWFA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER I
DID LOWER VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRONGER WEDGE PATTERN. I ALSO REDUCED THE OVERALL QPF EXPECTED FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW NORMAL ON WED AND DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AND THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
STRONGER...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN MVFR CIG FORMING THIS EVENING...THEN
AN IFR CIG BEFORE DAWN...WITH MVFR VSBY IN FOG BY DAYBREAK...AS
MOISTURE PERSISTS IN THE LOW LEVELS. ALTHOUGH VSBY IMPROVES IN THE
MORNING...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY;Y IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE NE. CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LIMITED IN
COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FORM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. GUIDANCE
FAVORS IFR TO LIFR VSBY IN FOG AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT...WITH MVFR AT
KGSP AND KAND...BUT LEAVES KHKY AND KGMU WITH VFR VSBY. CIG ON THE
OTHER HAND LOWER TO MVFR EVERYWHERE BY DAYBREAK...NOT RETURNING TO
MVFR UNTIL MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL IMPROVE FROM THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY AFTER THIS TAF PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER FROM NW
TONIGHT...TO SE ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH  84%     MED   79%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  84%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  88%     MED   75%
KAND       HIGH  89%     MED   79%     HIGH  95%     MED   69%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT








000
FXUS62 KGSP 140059
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
859 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 900 PM EDT SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NATION. MODEL DATA SHOWED A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE FALL LINE IN THE PIEDMONT OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA.

MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
FRONT IN THE SC MIDLANDS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING NW FORM THIS
AREA HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO
AREA...BUT APPEAR TO BE SLOWING. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE US 74 CORRIDOR IN THE NC FOOTHILLS APPEARS TO BE ON
A COLLISION COURSE WITH THE CHARLOTTE AREA STORMS. MORE CONVECTION
WAS NOTED IN NE GA...AND THE SW NC MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY WANING THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A
VERY MOIST PROFILE...WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND BOUNDARIES COLLIDING
AND WANDERING ABOUT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE TO LIGHT TO
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...BUT GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS VERY LOW
VISIBILITY IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL IN RELATIVELY COOL NE FLOW.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL...
BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE LOOKS WEAK...SO PRECIP CHANCES
ARE ON THE LOW END FOR SUNDAY. THE SW HALF OF THE AREA STANDS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...AND EVEN SOME SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE WEDGE AIRMASS
TYPICALLY DOES NOT REACH. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
MAX TEMPS UP TO 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...WE APPEAR TO HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGES WILL WAX AND WANE AS THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT...WHILE AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG OUT W TO E TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS PASS BY TO OUR N. THE PROBLEM IS THAT EACH PASSING HIGH
STAYS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE WDEGE NEVER REALLY LOCKS IN. THE FIRST
SUCH WEDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART ON MONDAY AS WHAT
PASSES FOR A PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER
AND A LEE TROF ESSENTIALLY OVERWHELMS THE REMNANT COOL POOL E OF THE
MTNS. AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND OF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ASSUMING THE COOL POOL DRAINS AND WE
GET SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HAVE
CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SO A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BRIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING NEW PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR THE MTNS. WILL NUDGE THE FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER POP
SEEN IN THE NEW MOSGUIDE AND AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST SREF. TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY AGAIN IF NEW PRECIP DEVELOPS PER THE GFS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT THEM THE SAME
ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICK UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO
SOME DEGREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LIFT NE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND LIKELY BE IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA BY NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...A NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST ON TUES
AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE AT 00Z WED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS. THE HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND REMAIN THERE THRU NEW DAY 7. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE/STRENGTHEN A COLD AIR WEDGE PUT
IN PLACE BY THE NEAR STATIONARY SFC HIGH TO THE NE. THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS IS GOOD WRT THIS WEDGE
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND SO OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVING. THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR WED WITH A
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE CWFA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER I
DID LOWER VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRONGER WEDGE PATTERN. I ALSO REDUCED THE OVERALL QPF EXPECTED FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW NORMAL ON WED AND DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AND THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
STRONGER...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN MVFR CIG FORMING THIS EVENING...THEN
AN IFR CIG BEFORE DAWN...WITH MVFR VSBY IN FOG BY DAYBREAK...AS
MOISTURE PERSISTS IN THE LOW LEVELS. ALTHOUGH VSBY IMPROVES IN THE
MORNING...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY;Y IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE NE. CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LIMITED IN
COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FORM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. GUIDANCE
FAVORS IFR TO LIFR VSBY IN FOG AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT...WITH MVFR AT
KGSP AND KAND...BUT LEAVES KHKY AND KGMU WITH VFR VSBY. CIG ON THE
OTHER HAND LOWER TO MVFR EVERYWHERE BY DAYBREAK...NOT RETURNING TO
MVFR UNTIL MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL IMPROVE FROM THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY AFTER THIS TAF PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER FROM NW
TONIGHT...TO SE ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  81%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  84%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  92%     MED   75%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  98%     MED   70%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT







000
FXUS62 KGSP 140059
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
859 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 900 PM EDT SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NATION. MODEL DATA SHOWED A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE FALL LINE IN THE PIEDMONT OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA.

MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
FRONT IN THE SC MIDLANDS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING NW FORM THIS
AREA HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO
AREA...BUT APPEAR TO BE SLOWING. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE US 74 CORRIDOR IN THE NC FOOTHILLS APPEARS TO BE ON
A COLLISION COURSE WITH THE CHARLOTTE AREA STORMS. MORE CONVECTION
WAS NOTED IN NE GA...AND THE SW NC MOUNTAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY WANING THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A
VERY MOIST PROFILE...WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND BOUNDARIES COLLIDING
AND WANDERING ABOUT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE TO LIGHT TO
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...BUT GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS VERY LOW
VISIBILITY IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL IN RELATIVELY COOL NE FLOW.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL...
BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE LOOKS WEAK...SO PRECIP CHANCES
ARE ON THE LOW END FOR SUNDAY. THE SW HALF OF THE AREA STANDS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...AND EVEN SOME SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE WEDGE AIRMASS
TYPICALLY DOES NOT REACH. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
MAX TEMPS UP TO 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...WE APPEAR TO HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGES WILL WAX AND WANE AS THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT...WHILE AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG OUT W TO E TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS PASS BY TO OUR N. THE PROBLEM IS THAT EACH PASSING HIGH
STAYS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE WDEGE NEVER REALLY LOCKS IN. THE FIRST
SUCH WEDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART ON MONDAY AS WHAT
PASSES FOR A PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER
AND A LEE TROF ESSENTIALLY OVERWHELMS THE REMNANT COOL POOL E OF THE
MTNS. AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND OF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ASSUMING THE COOL POOL DRAINS AND WE
GET SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HAVE
CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SO A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BRIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING NEW PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR THE MTNS. WILL NUDGE THE FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER POP
SEEN IN THE NEW MOSGUIDE AND AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST SREF. TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY AGAIN IF NEW PRECIP DEVELOPS PER THE GFS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT THEM THE SAME
ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICK UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO
SOME DEGREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LIFT NE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND LIKELY BE IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA BY NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...A NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST ON TUES
AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE AT 00Z WED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS. THE HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND REMAIN THERE THRU NEW DAY 7. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE/STRENGTHEN A COLD AIR WEDGE PUT
IN PLACE BY THE NEAR STATIONARY SFC HIGH TO THE NE. THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS IS GOOD WRT THIS WEDGE
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND SO OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVING. THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR WED WITH A
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE CWFA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER I
DID LOWER VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRONGER WEDGE PATTERN. I ALSO REDUCED THE OVERALL QPF EXPECTED FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW NORMAL ON WED AND DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AND THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
STRONGER...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN MVFR CIG FORMING THIS EVENING...THEN
AN IFR CIG BEFORE DAWN...WITH MVFR VSBY IN FOG BY DAYBREAK...AS
MOISTURE PERSISTS IN THE LOW LEVELS. ALTHOUGH VSBY IMPROVES IN THE
MORNING...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY;Y IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE NE. CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LIMITED IN
COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FORM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. GUIDANCE
FAVORS IFR TO LIFR VSBY IN FOG AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT...WITH MVFR AT
KGSP AND KAND...BUT LEAVES KHKY AND KGMU WITH VFR VSBY. CIG ON THE
OTHER HAND LOWER TO MVFR EVERYWHERE BY DAYBREAK...NOT RETURNING TO
MVFR UNTIL MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL IMPROVE FROM THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY AFTER THIS TAF PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER FROM NW
TONIGHT...TO SE ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  81%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  84%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  92%     MED   75%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  98%     MED   70%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT








000
FXUS62 KGSP 132319
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
719 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2315 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV. POPS WERE UPDATED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...FAVORING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA. QPF WAS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

AT 215 PM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF
CLT...SW THROUGH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SC INTO NE GA. RADAR IS
BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE
INTO NE GA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES IN THE 2000-3000J/KG RANGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE AND PRECIP WATER AROUND 2 INCHES THERE SHOULD
BE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. HENCE....THE NUMEROUS COVERAGE TYPE POPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THE FRONT
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT AND WORKS IT OVER WITH CONVECTION PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ON
THE ORDER OF 4 INCHES. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT WITH NO QPF BOMBS. HENCE...WILL TREND THE FORECAST TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ONLY MODERATE QPF VALUES. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UPSTATE...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT THE NAM SUGGESTS.
THEREFORE...NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH CAD CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS
WILL BE PLENTIFUL...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE LOOKS WEAK...
SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW END FOR SUNDAY. THE SW HALF OF THE
AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...AND EVEN
SOME SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TYPICALLY DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS UP TO 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...WE APPEAR TO HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGES WILL WAX AND WANE AS THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT...WHILE AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG OUT W TO E TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS PASS BY TO OUR N. THE PROBLEM IS THAT EACH PASSING HIGH
STAYS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE WDEGE NEVER REALLY LOCKS IN. THE FIRST
SUCH WEDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART ON MONDAY AS WHAT
PASSES FOR A PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER
AND A LEE TROF ESSENTIALLY OVERWHELMS THE REMNANT COOL POOL E OF THE
MTNS. AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND OF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ASSUMING THE COOL POOL DRAINS AND WE
GET SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HAVE
CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SO A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BRIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING NEW PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR THE MTNS. WILL NUDGE THE FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER POP
SEEN IN THE NEW MOSGUIDE AND AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST SREF. TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY AGAIN IF NEW PRECIP DEVELOPS PER THE GFS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT THEM THE SAME
ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICK UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO
SOME DEGREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LIFT NE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND LIKELY BE IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA BY NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...A NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST ON TUES
AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE AT 00Z WED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS. THE HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND REMAIN THERE THRU NEW DAY 7. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE/STRENGTHEN A COLD AIR WEDGE PUT
IN PLACE BY THE NEAR STATIONARY SFC HIGH TO THE NE. THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS IS GOOD WRT THIS WEDGE
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND SO OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVING. THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR WED WITH A
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE CWFA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER I
DID LOWER VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRONGER WEDGE PATTERN. I ALSO REDUCED THE OVERALL QPF EXPECTED FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW NORMAL ON WED AND DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AND THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
STRONGER...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN MVFR CIG FORMING THIS EVENING...THEN
AN IFR CIG BEFORE DAWN...WITH MVFR VSBY IN FOG BY DAYBREAK...AS
MOISTURE PERSISTS IN THE LOW LEVELS. ALTHOUGH VSBY IMPROVES IN THE
MORNING...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY;Y IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE NE. CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LIMITED IN
COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FORM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. GUIDANCE
FAVORS IFR TO LIFR VSBY IN FOG AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT...WITH MVFR AT
KGSP AND KAND...BUT LEAVES KHKY AND KGMU WITH VFR VSBY. CIG ON THE
OTHER HAND LOWER TO MVFR EVERYWHERE BY DAYBREAK...NOT RETURNING TO
MVFR UNTIL MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL IMPROVE FROM THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY AFTER THIS TAF PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER FROM NW
TONIGHT...TO SE ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  99%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     MED   79%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  82%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%     MED   76%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  81%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT








000
FXUS62 KGSP 132319
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
719 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2315 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM
AND ADJMAV. POPS WERE UPDATED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...FAVORING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA. QPF WAS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

AT 215 PM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF
CLT...SW THROUGH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SC INTO NE GA. RADAR IS
BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE
INTO NE GA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES IN THE 2000-3000J/KG RANGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE AND PRECIP WATER AROUND 2 INCHES THERE SHOULD
BE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. HENCE....THE NUMEROUS COVERAGE TYPE POPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THE FRONT
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT AND WORKS IT OVER WITH CONVECTION PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ON
THE ORDER OF 4 INCHES. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT WITH NO QPF BOMBS. HENCE...WILL TREND THE FORECAST TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ONLY MODERATE QPF VALUES. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UPSTATE...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT THE NAM SUGGESTS.
THEREFORE...NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH CAD CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS
WILL BE PLENTIFUL...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE LOOKS WEAK...
SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW END FOR SUNDAY. THE SW HALF OF THE
AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...AND EVEN
SOME SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TYPICALLY DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS UP TO 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...WE APPEAR TO HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGES WILL WAX AND WANE AS THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT...WHILE AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG OUT W TO E TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS PASS BY TO OUR N. THE PROBLEM IS THAT EACH PASSING HIGH
STAYS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE WDEGE NEVER REALLY LOCKS IN. THE FIRST
SUCH WEDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART ON MONDAY AS WHAT
PASSES FOR A PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER
AND A LEE TROF ESSENTIALLY OVERWHELMS THE REMNANT COOL POOL E OF THE
MTNS. AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND OF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ASSUMING THE COOL POOL DRAINS AND WE
GET SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HAVE
CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SO A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BRIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING NEW PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR THE MTNS. WILL NUDGE THE FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER POP
SEEN IN THE NEW MOSGUIDE AND AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST SREF. TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY AGAIN IF NEW PRECIP DEVELOPS PER THE GFS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT THEM THE SAME
ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICK UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO
SOME DEGREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LIFT NE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND LIKELY BE IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA BY NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...A NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST ON TUES
AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE AT 00Z WED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS. THE HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND REMAIN THERE THRU NEW DAY 7. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE/STRENGTHEN A COLD AIR WEDGE PUT
IN PLACE BY THE NEAR STATIONARY SFC HIGH TO THE NE. THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS IS GOOD WRT THIS WEDGE
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND SO OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVING. THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR WED WITH A
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE CWFA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER I
DID LOWER VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRONGER WEDGE PATTERN. I ALSO REDUCED THE OVERALL QPF EXPECTED FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW NORMAL ON WED AND DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AND THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
STRONGER...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN MVFR CIG FORMING THIS EVENING...THEN
AN IFR CIG BEFORE DAWN...WITH MVFR VSBY IN FOG BY DAYBREAK...AS
MOISTURE PERSISTS IN THE LOW LEVELS. ALTHOUGH VSBY IMPROVES IN THE
MORNING...CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY;Y IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE NE. CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LIMITED IN
COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FORM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. GUIDANCE
FAVORS IFR TO LIFR VSBY IN FOG AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT...WITH MVFR AT
KGSP AND KAND...BUT LEAVES KHKY AND KGMU WITH VFR VSBY. CIG ON THE
OTHER HAND LOWER TO MVFR EVERYWHERE BY DAYBREAK...NOT RETURNING TO
MVFR UNTIL MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL IMPROVE FROM THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY AFTER THIS TAF PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER FROM NW
TONIGHT...TO SE ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON MONDAY...BUT SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  99%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%     MED   79%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  82%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%     MED   76%
KAND       HIGH  96%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  81%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT







000
FXUS62 KGSP 132138
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2135 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE UPDATED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...
FAVORING ANDERSON AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES IN SC. SKY WAS UPDATED FROM
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 215 PM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF
CLT...SW THROUGH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SC INTO NE GA. RADAR IS
BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE
INTO NE GA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES IN THE 2000-3000J/KG RANGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE AND PRECIP WATER AROUND 2 INCHES THERE SHOULD
BE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. HENCE....THE NUMEROUS COVERAGE TYPE POPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THE FRONT
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT AND WORKS IT OVER WITH CONVECTION PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ON
THE ORDER OF 4 INCHES. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT WITH NO QPF BOMBS. HENCE...WILL TREND THE FORECAST TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ONLY MODERATE QPF VALUES. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UPSTATE...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT THE NAM SUGGESTS.
THEREFORE...NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH CAD CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS
WILL BE PLENTIFUL...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE LOOKS WEAK...
SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW END FOR SUNDAY. THE SW HALF OF THE
AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...AND EVEN
SOME SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TYPICALLY DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS UP TO 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...WE APPEAR TO HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGES WILL WAX AND WANE AS THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT...WHILE AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG OUT W TO E TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS PASS BY TO OUR N. THE PROBLEM IS THAT EACH PASSING HIGH
STAYS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE WDEGE NEVER REALLY LOCKS IN. THE FIRST
SUCH WEDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART ON MONDAY AS WHAT
PASSES FOR A PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER
AND A LEE TROF ESSENTIALLY OVERWHELMS THE REMNANT COOL POOL E OF THE
MTNS. AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND OF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ASSUMING THE COOL POOL DRAINS AND WE
GET SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HAVE
CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SO A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BRIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING NEW PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR THE MTNS. WILL NUDGE THE FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER POP
SEEN IN THE NEW MOSGUIDE AND AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST SREF. TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY AGAIN IF NEW PRECIP DEVELOPS PER THE GFS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT THEM THE SAME
ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICK UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO
SOME DEGREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LIFT NE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND LIKELY BE IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA BY NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...A NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST ON TUES
AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE AT 00Z WED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS. THE HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND REMAIN THERE THRU NEW DAY 7. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE/STRENGTHEN A COLD AIR WEDGE PUT
IN PLACE BY THE NEAR STATIONARY SFC HIGH TO THE NE. THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS IS GOOD WRT THIS WEDGE
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND SO OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVING. THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR WED WITH A
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE CWFA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER I
DID LOWER VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRONGER WEDGE PATTERN. I ALSO REDUCED THE OVERALL QPF EXPECTED FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW NORMAL ON WED AND DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AND THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
STRONGER...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS ON THERE WAY UP LIFTING TO LOW VFR. COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY SE AND WILL SLIP BY THE AIRFIELD BY 21Z.
IT WILL BE CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY TSRA WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR JUST TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO FOR TSRA WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE PER LOCAL WRF MODEL. VFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR NEAR 12Z SUN AS COOL/MOIST WEDGE
LOCKS IN.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL AND KHKY SHOULD AVOID FRONTAL CONVECTION TODAY AND
HAVE VFR CEILINGS UNTIL MVFR WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT.
THE SC AIRFIELDS ARE LIKELY TO SEE TEMPO TSRA WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVLOPS.

OUTLOOK...WEDGE WILL HANG ON INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON
MONDAY...BUT SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF
RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH  99%     HIGH  92%     MED   75%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     MED   75%     LOW   57%     HIGH  89%
KHKY       HIGH  99%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  92%     MED   67%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...LG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 132138
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2135 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE UPDATED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...
FAVORING ANDERSON AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES IN SC. SKY WAS UPDATED FROM
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 215 PM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF
CLT...SW THROUGH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SC INTO NE GA. RADAR IS
BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE
INTO NE GA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES IN THE 2000-3000J/KG RANGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE AND PRECIP WATER AROUND 2 INCHES THERE SHOULD
BE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. HENCE....THE NUMEROUS COVERAGE TYPE POPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THE FRONT
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT AND WORKS IT OVER WITH CONVECTION PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ON
THE ORDER OF 4 INCHES. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT WITH NO QPF BOMBS. HENCE...WILL TREND THE FORECAST TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ONLY MODERATE QPF VALUES. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UPSTATE...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT THE NAM SUGGESTS.
THEREFORE...NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH CAD CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS
WILL BE PLENTIFUL...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE LOOKS WEAK...
SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW END FOR SUNDAY. THE SW HALF OF THE
AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...AND EVEN
SOME SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TYPICALLY DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS UP TO 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...WE APPEAR TO HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGES WILL WAX AND WANE AS THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT...WHILE AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG OUT W TO E TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS PASS BY TO OUR N. THE PROBLEM IS THAT EACH PASSING HIGH
STAYS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE WDEGE NEVER REALLY LOCKS IN. THE FIRST
SUCH WEDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART ON MONDAY AS WHAT
PASSES FOR A PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER
AND A LEE TROF ESSENTIALLY OVERWHELMS THE REMNANT COOL POOL E OF THE
MTNS. AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND OF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ASSUMING THE COOL POOL DRAINS AND WE
GET SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HAVE
CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SO A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BRIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING NEW PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR THE MTNS. WILL NUDGE THE FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER POP
SEEN IN THE NEW MOSGUIDE AND AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST SREF. TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY AGAIN IF NEW PRECIP DEVELOPS PER THE GFS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT THEM THE SAME
ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICK UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO
SOME DEGREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LIFT NE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND LIKELY BE IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA BY NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...A NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST ON TUES
AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE AT 00Z WED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS. THE HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND REMAIN THERE THRU NEW DAY 7. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE/STRENGTHEN A COLD AIR WEDGE PUT
IN PLACE BY THE NEAR STATIONARY SFC HIGH TO THE NE. THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS IS GOOD WRT THIS WEDGE
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND SO OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVING. THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR WED WITH A
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE CWFA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER I
DID LOWER VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRONGER WEDGE PATTERN. I ALSO REDUCED THE OVERALL QPF EXPECTED FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW NORMAL ON WED AND DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AND THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
STRONGER...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS ON THERE WAY UP LIFTING TO LOW VFR. COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY SE AND WILL SLIP BY THE AIRFIELD BY 21Z.
IT WILL BE CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY TSRA WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR JUST TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO FOR TSRA WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE PER LOCAL WRF MODEL. VFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR NEAR 12Z SUN AS COOL/MOIST WEDGE
LOCKS IN.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL AND KHKY SHOULD AVOID FRONTAL CONVECTION TODAY AND
HAVE VFR CEILINGS UNTIL MVFR WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT.
THE SC AIRFIELDS ARE LIKELY TO SEE TEMPO TSRA WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVLOPS.

OUTLOOK...WEDGE WILL HANG ON INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON
MONDAY...BUT SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF
RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH  99%     HIGH  92%     MED   75%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     MED   75%     LOW   57%     HIGH  89%
KHKY       HIGH  99%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  92%     MED   67%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...LG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 132027
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2030 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE REALIGNED BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...FAVORING A SWATH FROM RUTHERFORD COUNTY NC...TO SPARTANBURG
AND PICKENS COUNTIES IN SC...AS WELL AS ELBERT AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN GA. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY...ACCOUNTING FOR
BREAKS OVER WESTERN NC AND THE SC PIEDMONT.

AT 215 PM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF
CLT...SW THROUGH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SC INTO NE GA. RADAR IS
BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE
INTO NE GA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES IN THE 2000-3000J/KG RANGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE AND PRECIP WATER AROUND 2 INCHES THERE SHOULD
BE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. HENCE....THE NUMEROUS COVERAGE TYPE POPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THE FRONT
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT AND WORKS IT OVER WITH CONVECTION PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ON
THE ORDER OF 4 INCHES. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT WITH NO QPF BOMBS. HENCE...WILL TREND THE FORECAST TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ONLY MODERATE QPF VALUES. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UPSTATE...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT THE NAM SUGGESTS.
THEREFORE...NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH CAD CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS
WILL BE PLENTIFUL...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE LOOKS WEAK...
SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW END FOR SUNDAY. THE SW HALF OF THE
AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...AND EVEN
SOME SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TYPICALLY DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS UP TO 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...WE APPEAR TO HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGES WILL WAX AND WANE AS THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT...WHILE AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG OUT W TO E TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS PASS BY TO OUR N. THE PROBLEM IS THAT EACH PASSING HIGH
STAYS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE WDEGE NEVER REALLY LOCKS IN. THE FIRST
SUCH WEDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART ON MONDAY AS WHAT
PASSES FOR A PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER
AND A LEE TROF ESSENTIALLY OVERWHELMS THE REMNANT COOL POOL E OF THE
MTNS. AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND OF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ASSUMING THE COOL POOL DRAINS AND WE
GET SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HAVE
CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SO A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BRIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING NEW PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR THE MTNS. WILL NUDGE THE FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER POP
SEEN IN THE NEW MOSGUIDE AND AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST SREF. TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY AGAIN IF NEW PRECIP DEVELOPS PER THE GFS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT THEM THE SAME
ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICK UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO
SOME DEGREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LIFT NE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND LIKELY BE IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA BY NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...A NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST ON TUES
AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE AT 00Z WED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS. THE HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND REMAIN THERE THRU NEW DAY 7. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE/STRENGTHEN A COLD AIR WEDGE PUT
IN PLACE BY THE NEAR STATIONARY SFC HIGH TO THE NE. THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS IS GOOD WRT THIS WEDGE
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND SO OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVING. THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR WED WITH A
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE CWFA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER I
DID LOWER VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRONGER WEDGE PATTERN. I ALSO REDUCED THE OVERALL QPF EXPECTED FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW NORMAL ON WED AND DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AND THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
STRONGER...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS ON THERE WAY UP LIFTING TO LOW VFR. COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY SE AND WILL SLIP BY THE AIRFIELD BY 21Z.
IT WILL BE CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY TSRA WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR JUST TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO FOR TSRA WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE PER LOCAL WRF MODEL. VFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR NEAR 12Z SUN AS COOL/MOIST WEDGE
LOCKS IN.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL AND KHKY SHOULD AVOID FRONTAL CONVECTION TODAY AND
HAVE VFR CEILINGS UNTIL MVFR WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT.
THE SC AIRFIELDS ARE LIKELY TO SEE TEMPO TSRA WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVLOPS.

OUTLOOK...WEDGE WILL HANG ON INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON
MONDAY...BUT SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF
RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH  87%     HIGH  99%     MED   78%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH  98%     HIGH  99%     MED   69%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  85%     LOW   49%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     MED   76%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       HIGH  98%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     MED   77%     HIGH  89%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...LG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 132027
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2030 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE REALIGNED BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...FAVORING A SWATH FROM RUTHERFORD COUNTY NC...TO SPARTANBURG
AND PICKENS COUNTIES IN SC...AS WELL AS ELBERT AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN GA. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY...ACCOUNTING FOR
BREAKS OVER WESTERN NC AND THE SC PIEDMONT.

AT 215 PM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF
CLT...SW THROUGH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SC INTO NE GA. RADAR IS
BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE
INTO NE GA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES IN THE 2000-3000J/KG RANGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE AND PRECIP WATER AROUND 2 INCHES THERE SHOULD
BE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. HENCE....THE NUMEROUS COVERAGE TYPE POPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THE FRONT
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT AND WORKS IT OVER WITH CONVECTION PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ON
THE ORDER OF 4 INCHES. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT WITH NO QPF BOMBS. HENCE...WILL TREND THE FORECAST TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ONLY MODERATE QPF VALUES. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UPSTATE...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT THE NAM SUGGESTS.
THEREFORE...NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH CAD CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS
WILL BE PLENTIFUL...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE LOOKS WEAK...
SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW END FOR SUNDAY. THE SW HALF OF THE
AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...AND EVEN
SOME SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TYPICALLY DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS UP TO 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...WE APPEAR TO HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGES WILL WAX AND WANE AS THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT...WHILE AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG OUT W TO E TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS PASS BY TO OUR N. THE PROBLEM IS THAT EACH PASSING HIGH
STAYS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE WDEGE NEVER REALLY LOCKS IN. THE FIRST
SUCH WEDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART ON MONDAY AS WHAT
PASSES FOR A PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER
AND A LEE TROF ESSENTIALLY OVERWHELMS THE REMNANT COOL POOL E OF THE
MTNS. AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND OF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ASSUMING THE COOL POOL DRAINS AND WE
GET SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HAVE
CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SO A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BRIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING NEW PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR THE MTNS. WILL NUDGE THE FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER POP
SEEN IN THE NEW MOSGUIDE AND AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST SREF. TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY AGAIN IF NEW PRECIP DEVELOPS PER THE GFS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT THEM THE SAME
ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICK UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO
SOME DEGREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LIFT NE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND LIKELY BE IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA BY NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...A NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST ON TUES
AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE AT 00Z WED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS. THE HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND REMAIN THERE THRU NEW DAY 7. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE/STRENGTHEN A COLD AIR WEDGE PUT
IN PLACE BY THE NEAR STATIONARY SFC HIGH TO THE NE. THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS IS GOOD WRT THIS WEDGE
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND SO OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVING. THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR WED WITH A
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE CWFA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER I
DID LOWER VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRONGER WEDGE PATTERN. I ALSO REDUCED THE OVERALL QPF EXPECTED FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW NORMAL ON WED AND DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AND THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
STRONGER...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS ON THERE WAY UP LIFTING TO LOW VFR. COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY SE AND WILL SLIP BY THE AIRFIELD BY 21Z.
IT WILL BE CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY TSRA WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR JUST TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO FOR TSRA WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE PER LOCAL WRF MODEL. VFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR NEAR 12Z SUN AS COOL/MOIST WEDGE
LOCKS IN.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL AND KHKY SHOULD AVOID FRONTAL CONVECTION TODAY AND
HAVE VFR CEILINGS UNTIL MVFR WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT.
THE SC AIRFIELDS ARE LIKELY TO SEE TEMPO TSRA WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVLOPS.

OUTLOOK...WEDGE WILL HANG ON INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON
MONDAY...BUT SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF
RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH  87%     HIGH  99%     MED   78%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH  98%     HIGH  99%     MED   69%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  85%     LOW   49%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     MED   76%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       HIGH  98%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     MED   77%     HIGH  89%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...LG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 131840
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 215 PM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF
CLT...SW THROUGH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SC INTO NE GA. RADAR IS
BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE
INTO NE GA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES IN THE 2000-3000J/KG RANGE OVER
THE SOUTEHRN UPSTATE AND PRECIP WATER AROUND 2 INCHES THERE SHOULD
BE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. HENCE....THE NUMEROUS COVERAGE TYPE POPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED EALRIER...THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THE FRONT
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT AND WORKS IT OVER WITH CONVECTION PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ON
THE ORDER OF 4 INCHES. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT WITH NO QPF BOMBS. HENCE...WILL TREND THE FORECAST TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ONLY MODERATE QPF VALUES. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UPSTATE...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT THE NAM SUGGESTS.
THEREFORE...NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH CAD CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS
WILL BE PLENTIFUL...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE LOOKS WEAK...SO
PRECIP CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW END FOR SUNDAY. THE SW HALF OF THE
AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...AND EVEN
SOME SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TYPICALLY DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS UP TO 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...WE APPEAR TO HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGES WILL WAX AND WANE AS THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT...WHILE AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG OUT W TO E TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS PASS BY TO OUR N. THE PROBLEM IS THAT EACH PASSING HIGH
STAYS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE WDEGE NEVER REALLY LOCKS IN. THE FIRST
SUCH WEDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART ON MONDAY AS WHAT
PASSES FOR A PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER
AND A LEE TROF ESSENTIALLY OVERWHELMS THE REMNANT COOL POOL E OF THE
MTNS. AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND OF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ASSUMING THE COOL POOL DRAINS AND WE
GET SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HAVE
CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SO A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BRIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING NEW PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR THE MTNS. WILL NUDGE THE FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER POP
SEEN IN THE NEW MOSGUIDE AND AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST SREF. TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY AGAIN IF NEW PRECIP DEVELOPS PER THE GFS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT THEM THE SAME
ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICK UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO
SOME DEGREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LIFT NE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND LIKELY BE IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA BY NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...A NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST ON TUES
AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE AT 00Z WED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS. THE HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND REMAIN THERE THRU NEW DAY 7. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE/STRENGTHEN A COLD AIR WEDGE PUT
IN PLACE BY THE NEAR STATIONARY SFC HIGH TO THE NE. THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS IS GOOD WRT THIS WEDGE
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND SO OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVING. THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR WED WITH A
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE CWFA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER I
DID LOWER VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRONGER WEDGE PATTERN. I ALSO REDUCED THE OVERALL QPF EXPECTED FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW NORMAL ON WED AND DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AND THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
STRONGER...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS ON THERE WAY UP LIFTING TO LOW VFR. COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY SE AND WILL SLIP BY THE AIRFIELD BY 21Z.
IT WILL BE CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY TSRA WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR JUST TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO FOR TSRA WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE PER LOCAL WRF MODEL. VFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR NEAR 12Z SUN AS COOL/MOIST WEDGE
LOCKS IN.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL AND KHKY SHOULD AVOID FRONTAL CONVECTION TODAY AND
HAVE VFR CEILINGS UNTIL MVFR WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT.
THE SC AIRFIELDS ARE LIKELY TO SEE TEMPO TSRA WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVLOPS.

OUTLOOK...WEDGE WILL HANG ON INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON
MONDAY...BUT SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF
RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%     MED   61%     MED   78%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     HIGH  92%
KGMU       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...LG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 131840
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 215 PM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF
CLT...SW THROUGH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SC INTO NE GA. RADAR IS
BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE
INTO NE GA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES IN THE 2000-3000J/KG RANGE OVER
THE SOUTEHRN UPSTATE AND PRECIP WATER AROUND 2 INCHES THERE SHOULD
BE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. HENCE....THE NUMEROUS COVERAGE TYPE POPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED EALRIER...THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THE FRONT
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT AND WORKS IT OVER WITH CONVECTION PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ON
THE ORDER OF 4 INCHES. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT WITH NO QPF BOMBS. HENCE...WILL TREND THE FORECAST TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ONLY MODERATE QPF VALUES. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UPSTATE...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT THE NAM SUGGESTS.
THEREFORE...NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH CAD CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS
WILL BE PLENTIFUL...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE LOOKS WEAK...SO
PRECIP CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW END FOR SUNDAY. THE SW HALF OF THE
AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...AND EVEN
SOME SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TYPICALLY DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS UP TO 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...WE APPEAR TO HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGES WILL WAX AND WANE AS THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT...WHILE AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG OUT W TO E TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS PASS BY TO OUR N. THE PROBLEM IS THAT EACH PASSING HIGH
STAYS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE WDEGE NEVER REALLY LOCKS IN. THE FIRST
SUCH WEDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART ON MONDAY AS WHAT
PASSES FOR A PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER
AND A LEE TROF ESSENTIALLY OVERWHELMS THE REMNANT COOL POOL E OF THE
MTNS. AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND OF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ASSUMING THE COOL POOL DRAINS AND WE
GET SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HAVE
CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SO A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BRIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING NEW PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR THE MTNS. WILL NUDGE THE FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER POP
SEEN IN THE NEW MOSGUIDE AND AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST SREF. TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY AGAIN IF NEW PRECIP DEVELOPS PER THE GFS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT THEM THE SAME
ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICK UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO
SOME DEGREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LIFT NE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND LIKELY BE IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA BY NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...A NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST ON TUES
AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE AT 00Z WED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
HIGH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH BY LATE WED/EARLY
THURS. THE HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND REMAIN THERE THRU NEW DAY 7. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH ACTS TO ENHANCE/STRENGTHEN A COLD AIR WEDGE PUT
IN PLACE BY THE NEAR STATIONARY SFC HIGH TO THE NE. THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS IS GOOD WRT THIS WEDGE
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND SO OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVING. THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR WED WITH A
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE CWFA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER I
DID LOWER VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRONGER WEDGE PATTERN. I ALSO REDUCED THE OVERALL QPF EXPECTED FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW NORMAL ON WED AND DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AND THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
STRONGER...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS ON THERE WAY UP LIFTING TO LOW VFR. COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY SE AND WILL SLIP BY THE AIRFIELD BY 21Z.
IT WILL BE CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY TSRA WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR JUST TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO FOR TSRA WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE PER LOCAL WRF MODEL. VFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR NEAR 12Z SUN AS COOL/MOIST WEDGE
LOCKS IN.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL AND KHKY SHOULD AVOID FRONTAL CONVECTION TODAY AND
HAVE VFR CEILINGS UNTIL MVFR WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT.
THE SC AIRFIELDS ARE LIKELY TO SEE TEMPO TSRA WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVLOPS.

OUTLOOK...WEDGE WILL HANG ON INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON
MONDAY...BUT SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF
RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%     MED   61%     MED   78%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     HIGH  92%
KGMU       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...LG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 131824
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
224 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 215 PM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF
CLT...SW THROUGH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SC INTO NE GA. RADAR IS
BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE
INTO NE GA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES IN THE 2000-3000J/KG RANGE OVER
THE SOUTEHRN UPSTATE AND PRECIP WATER AROUND 2 INCHES THERE SHOULD
BE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. HENCE....THE NUMEROUS COVERAGE TYPE POPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED EALRIER...THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THE FRONT
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT AND WORKS IT OVER WITH CONVECTION PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ON
THE ORDER OF 4 INCHES. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT WITH NO QPF BOMBS. HENCE...WILL TREND THE FORECAST TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ONLY MODERATE QPF VALUES. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UPSTATE...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT THE NAM SUGGESTS.
THEREFORE...NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH CAD CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS
WILL BE PLENTIFUL...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE LOOKS WEAK...SO
PRECIP CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW END FOR SUNDAY. THE SW HALF OF THE
AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...AND EVEN
SOME SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TYPICALLY DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS UP TO 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...WE APPEAR TO HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGES WILL WAX AND WANE AS THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT...WHILE AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG OUT W TO E TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS PASS BY TO OUR N. THE PROBLEM IS THAT EACH PASSING HIGH
STAYS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE WDEGE NEVER REALLY LOCKS IN. THE FIRST
SUCH WEDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART ON MONDAY AS WHAT
PASSES FOR A PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER
AND A LEE TROF ESSENTIALLY OVERWHELMS THE REMNANT COOL POOL E OF THE
MTNS. AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND OF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ASSUMING THE COOL POOL DRAINS AND WE
GET SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HAVE
CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SO A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BRIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING NEW PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR THE MTNS. WILL NUDGE THE FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER POP
SEEN IN THE NEW MOSGUIDE AND AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST SREF. TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY AGAIN IF NEW PRECIP DEVELOPS PER THE GFS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT THEM THE SAME
ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM SATURDAY...A GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE A
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A REINFORCING FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY...WHICH MAY FINALLY ALLOW SOME DRIER
AIR TO TRICKLE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A DAY OR SO WITH
LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE MAY RETURN BY
MID-WEEK IN ADVANCE OF AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY/THU. STRONG/EARLY AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY SHOULD THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THIS PARTICULAR CAD EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS ON THERE WAY UP LIFTING TO LOW VFR. COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY SE AND WILL SLIP BY THE AIRFIELD BY 21Z.
IT WILL BE CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY TSRA WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR JUST TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO FOR TSRA WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE PER LOCAL WRF MODEL. VFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR NEAR 12Z SUN AS COOL/MOIST WEDGE
LOCKS IN.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL AND KHKY SHOULD AVOID FRONTAL CONVECTION TODAY AND
HAVE VFR CEILINGS UNTIL MVFR WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT.
THE SC AIRFIELDS ARE LIKELY TO SEE TEMPO TSRA WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVLOPS.

OUTLOOK...WEDGE WILL HANG ON INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON
MONDAY...BUT SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF
RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%     MED   61%     MED   78%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     HIGH  92%
KGMU       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...LG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 131824
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
224 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 215 PM...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF
CLT...SW THROUGH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SC INTO NE GA. RADAR IS
BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE
INTO NE GA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES IN THE 2000-3000J/KG RANGE OVER
THE SOUTEHRN UPSTATE AND PRECIP WATER AROUND 2 INCHES THERE SHOULD
BE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. HENCE....THE NUMEROUS COVERAGE TYPE POPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED EALRIER...THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THE FRONT
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT AND WORKS IT OVER WITH CONVECTION PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ON
THE ORDER OF 4 INCHES. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT WITH NO QPF BOMBS. HENCE...WILL TREND THE FORECAST TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ONLY MODERATE QPF VALUES. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UPSTATE...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT THE NAM SUGGESTS.
THEREFORE...NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH CAD CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS
WILL BE PLENTIFUL...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE LOOKS WEAK...SO
PRECIP CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW END FOR SUNDAY. THE SW HALF OF THE
AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...AND EVEN
SOME SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TYPICALLY DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS UP TO 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...WE APPEAR TO HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF
TIME WHEN COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGES WILL WAX AND WANE AS THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT...WHILE AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRUNG OUT W TO E TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS PASS BY TO OUR N. THE PROBLEM IS THAT EACH PASSING HIGH
STAYS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE WDEGE NEVER REALLY LOCKS IN. THE FIRST
SUCH WEDGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART ON MONDAY AS WHAT
PASSES FOR A PARENT HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS FURTHER
AND A LEE TROF ESSENTIALLY OVERWHELMS THE REMNANT COOL POOL E OF THE
MTNS. AFTER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
REBOUND OF HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ASSUMING THE COOL POOL DRAINS AND WE
GET SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HAVE
CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND ON PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON THE NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 09Z SREF.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SO A CHANCE POP WAS
KEPT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BRIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING NEW PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS SOME ACTIVITY
NEAR THE MTNS. WILL NUDGE THE FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWER POP
SEEN IN THE NEW MOSGUIDE AND AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST SREF. TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY AGAIN IF NEW PRECIP DEVELOPS PER THE GFS. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT THEM THE SAME
ACROSS THE NRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM SATURDAY...A GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE A
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A REINFORCING FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY...WHICH MAY FINALLY ALLOW SOME DRIER
AIR TO TRICKLE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A DAY OR SO WITH
LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE MAY RETURN BY
MID-WEEK IN ADVANCE OF AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY/THU. STRONG/EARLY AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY SHOULD THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THIS PARTICULAR CAD EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS ON THERE WAY UP LIFTING TO LOW VFR. COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY SE AND WILL SLIP BY THE AIRFIELD BY 21Z.
IT WILL BE CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY TSRA WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR JUST TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO FOR TSRA WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE PER LOCAL WRF MODEL. VFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR NEAR 12Z SUN AS COOL/MOIST WEDGE
LOCKS IN.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL AND KHKY SHOULD AVOID FRONTAL CONVECTION TODAY AND
HAVE VFR CEILINGS UNTIL MVFR WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT.
THE SC AIRFIELDS ARE LIKELY TO SEE TEMPO TSRA WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVLOPS.

OUTLOOK...WEDGE WILL HANG ON INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON
MONDAY...BUT SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF
RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%     MED   61%     MED   78%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     HIGH  92%
KGMU       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...LG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 131746
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
146 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RADAR BEGINNING
TO SHOW SCT SHRA DEVELOPING VICINITY THE FRONT WHICH IS SLIPPING
INTO THE PIEDMONT. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 1125 AM...NOT MUCH ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT
-SHRA NC PIEDMONT. LATEST SFC MAP INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM JUST NW OF CLT...SW THROUGH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE INTO
NE GA. 12Z NAM MOVES THE FRONT SLOWLY SE AND BY 00Z LAYS IT OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE INTO NE GA. THE CAMS STILL LIKE THE IDEA
OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CAN`T ARGUE WITH THAT IN THAT DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING SBCAPES ALREADY EXCEED 1000J/KG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S AND PRECIP WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
NUMEROUS TYPE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT
ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NE GA. MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

12Z NAM IS INTERESTING IN THAT IT CONTINUES TO LIGHT UP THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION AND HEAVY PRECIP AS IT KEEPS QUASI-STATINARY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES INTHE UPSTATE. 3-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS FORECAST FROM CHESTER COUNTY WEST INTO GREENWOOD COUNTY. I AM NOT
QUITE READY TO BUY INTO THIS COMPLETELY BUT HAVE GIVEN IT A NOD AND
HELD ONTO THE LIKELY POPS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA. WILL AWAIT
THE 12Z GFS BEFORE ENTERTAINING ANY TYPE OF FLOOD WATCH IDEA.

AS OF 845 AM...UPDATED THE POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH
FEATURES A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM AVERY COUNTY DONW INTO BUNCOMBE
COUNTY...APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. CAMS ARE STILL
FAVORING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM ABOUT THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...SW THROUGH UPSTATE SC.
HENCE...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY LIKELY POPS IN THAT AREA. POPS
THIS AFTERNOON WERE ADJUSTED BY BLENDING IN CONSHSORT. TEMP FIELDS
WERE POPULATED WITH CONSHSORT. THIS BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A COUPLE
DEGREES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

OF 645 AM EDT...THOUGH WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS HANGING ON BY A
THREAD OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT...THE WEAKENING ACTIVITY THERE IS
FORCED BY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE INVOF WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST SYSTEM DESCRIBED BELOW. INCREASING
ACTIVITY JUST W OF THE MTNS SUGGESTS POPS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY THIS
AM IN THE TENN BORDER ZONES...THEN SPREAD EAST AS FRONT MOVES ACRS
THE CWFA TODAY. ON ANOTHER NOTE...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS PRESENT OUT
THERE. UNLESS SFC OBS BEGIN TO SHOW A CONTIGUOUS AREA OF 1/4SM
VSBY...NO ADVY WILL BE NEEDED. HOWEVER CAUTION IS ADVISABLE ON RURAL
ROADS AND IN VALLEYS THRU 8-9 AM.

THIS MRNG...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER OH VLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THAT LOW AND WILL CROSS THE MTNS AROUND
MIDDAY. IT WILL THEN PROGRESS ACRS THE CWFA THIS AFTN/EVENING ACTING
TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS
SC BY SUNDAY MRNG ALLOWING ANOTHER WEDGE TO FORM AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.

POPS TODAY WILL PEAK EARLIER THAN CLIMO IN THE MTNS BEFORE COLD
ADVECTION INHIBITS CONVECTION...BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING
WARRANT KEEPING A MENTIONABLE POP THRU THE NEAR TERM. OVER THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT MODELS PRODUCE MODEST CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
STILL WITH WEAK SHEAR...AS ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES REMAIN WELL
TO OUR NORTH DURING THE PERIOD. THERE IS HOWEVER ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO
KEEP CELLS MOVING TO SOME DEGREE. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED...ESP
IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.  THEY
WON/T BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THOSE FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL BE AT A
LARGER ANGLE TO THE FRONT. ALTOGETHER THE FLOOD RISK IS NOT THAT
GREAT...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY
IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS. THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEDGE SHOULD ALLOW
CLOUDS TO LIFT BUT NOT BREAK UP...AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...WITH A WEDGE AGAIN SETTING UP...WEAK UPGLIDE RETURNS AS THE
LOW LIFTS AWAY AND THE BERMUDA HIGH REGAINS INFLUENCE ACRS THE
SOUTHEAST. THUS HAVE ALLOWED CHANCE POPS TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT INTO
THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR ABOVE THE WEDGE
INVERSION SO IT APPEARS THUNDER WILL BE OF LITTLE CONCERN ONCE IT
DEVELOPS. ONLY LIGHT QPF WILL BE ADVERTISED. THOUGH THEY WILL BE
COOLER THAN THOSE SATURDAY MRNG WITHIN THE POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS...MIN
TEMPS STILL WILL BE A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...A BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY...AS WEAKENING/MIGRATORY HIGH
PRESSURE OOZES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
REASONABLY HIGH THAT MAXES SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL AFFECT
THE CWA SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STABLE...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN MNTNS...AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEDGE AIR MASS
WILL BE ABUNDANT...UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL DOME WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT. WHILE SCT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CAD AIR MASS...THERE MAY BE MORE OF A PATCHY
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY -RA SCENARIO OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE DIDN/T DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE INHERITED 30-40 POPS...BUT
ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...WEDGE EROSION SHOULD BE IN FULL EFFECT BY MONDAY...AS
THE WEAKENING PARENT HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH
MOISTURE LINGERING...ADDITIONAL HEATING TUE AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE
THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND 30-50 POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM SATURDAY...A GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE A
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A REINFORCING FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY...WHICH MAY FINALLY ALLOW SOME DRIER
AIR TO TRICKLE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A DAY OR SO WITH
LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE MAY RETURN BY
MID-WEEK IN ADVANCE OF AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY/THU. STRONG/EARLY AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY SHOULD THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THIS PARTICULAR CAD EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS ON THERE WAY UP LIFTING TO LOW VFR. COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY SE AND WILL SLIP BY THE AIRFIELD BY 21Z.
IT WILL BE CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY TSRA WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR JUST TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO FOR TSRA WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE PER LOCAL WRF MODEL. VFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR NEAR 12Z SUN AS COOL/MOIST WEDGE
LOCKS IN.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL AND KHKY SHOULD AVOID FRONTAL CONVECTION TODAY AND
HAVE VFR CEILINGS UNTIL MVFR WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT.
THE SC AIRFIELDS ARE LIKELY TO SEE TEMPO TSRA WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVLOPS.

OUTLOOK...WEDGE WILL HANG ON INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON
MONDAY...BUT SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF
RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  85%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     MED   60%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     MED   69%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  88%     MED   62%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...LG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 131746
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
146 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RADAR BEGINNING
TO SHOW SCT SHRA DEVELOPING VICINITY THE FRONT WHICH IS SLIPPING
INTO THE PIEDMONT. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 1125 AM...NOT MUCH ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT
-SHRA NC PIEDMONT. LATEST SFC MAP INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM JUST NW OF CLT...SW THROUGH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE INTO
NE GA. 12Z NAM MOVES THE FRONT SLOWLY SE AND BY 00Z LAYS IT OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE INTO NE GA. THE CAMS STILL LIKE THE IDEA
OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CAN`T ARGUE WITH THAT IN THAT DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING SBCAPES ALREADY EXCEED 1000J/KG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S AND PRECIP WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
NUMEROUS TYPE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT
ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NE GA. MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

12Z NAM IS INTERESTING IN THAT IT CONTINUES TO LIGHT UP THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION AND HEAVY PRECIP AS IT KEEPS QUASI-STATINARY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES INTHE UPSTATE. 3-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS FORECAST FROM CHESTER COUNTY WEST INTO GREENWOOD COUNTY. I AM NOT
QUITE READY TO BUY INTO THIS COMPLETELY BUT HAVE GIVEN IT A NOD AND
HELD ONTO THE LIKELY POPS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA. WILL AWAIT
THE 12Z GFS BEFORE ENTERTAINING ANY TYPE OF FLOOD WATCH IDEA.

AS OF 845 AM...UPDATED THE POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH
FEATURES A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM AVERY COUNTY DONW INTO BUNCOMBE
COUNTY...APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. CAMS ARE STILL
FAVORING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM ABOUT THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...SW THROUGH UPSTATE SC.
HENCE...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY LIKELY POPS IN THAT AREA. POPS
THIS AFTERNOON WERE ADJUSTED BY BLENDING IN CONSHSORT. TEMP FIELDS
WERE POPULATED WITH CONSHSORT. THIS BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A COUPLE
DEGREES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

OF 645 AM EDT...THOUGH WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS HANGING ON BY A
THREAD OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT...THE WEAKENING ACTIVITY THERE IS
FORCED BY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE INVOF WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST SYSTEM DESCRIBED BELOW. INCREASING
ACTIVITY JUST W OF THE MTNS SUGGESTS POPS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY THIS
AM IN THE TENN BORDER ZONES...THEN SPREAD EAST AS FRONT MOVES ACRS
THE CWFA TODAY. ON ANOTHER NOTE...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS PRESENT OUT
THERE. UNLESS SFC OBS BEGIN TO SHOW A CONTIGUOUS AREA OF 1/4SM
VSBY...NO ADVY WILL BE NEEDED. HOWEVER CAUTION IS ADVISABLE ON RURAL
ROADS AND IN VALLEYS THRU 8-9 AM.

THIS MRNG...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER OH VLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THAT LOW AND WILL CROSS THE MTNS AROUND
MIDDAY. IT WILL THEN PROGRESS ACRS THE CWFA THIS AFTN/EVENING ACTING
TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS
SC BY SUNDAY MRNG ALLOWING ANOTHER WEDGE TO FORM AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.

POPS TODAY WILL PEAK EARLIER THAN CLIMO IN THE MTNS BEFORE COLD
ADVECTION INHIBITS CONVECTION...BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING
WARRANT KEEPING A MENTIONABLE POP THRU THE NEAR TERM. OVER THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT MODELS PRODUCE MODEST CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
STILL WITH WEAK SHEAR...AS ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES REMAIN WELL
TO OUR NORTH DURING THE PERIOD. THERE IS HOWEVER ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO
KEEP CELLS MOVING TO SOME DEGREE. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED...ESP
IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.  THEY
WON/T BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THOSE FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL BE AT A
LARGER ANGLE TO THE FRONT. ALTOGETHER THE FLOOD RISK IS NOT THAT
GREAT...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY
IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS. THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEDGE SHOULD ALLOW
CLOUDS TO LIFT BUT NOT BREAK UP...AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...WITH A WEDGE AGAIN SETTING UP...WEAK UPGLIDE RETURNS AS THE
LOW LIFTS AWAY AND THE BERMUDA HIGH REGAINS INFLUENCE ACRS THE
SOUTHEAST. THUS HAVE ALLOWED CHANCE POPS TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT INTO
THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR ABOVE THE WEDGE
INVERSION SO IT APPEARS THUNDER WILL BE OF LITTLE CONCERN ONCE IT
DEVELOPS. ONLY LIGHT QPF WILL BE ADVERTISED. THOUGH THEY WILL BE
COOLER THAN THOSE SATURDAY MRNG WITHIN THE POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS...MIN
TEMPS STILL WILL BE A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...A BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY...AS WEAKENING/MIGRATORY HIGH
PRESSURE OOZES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
REASONABLY HIGH THAT MAXES SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL AFFECT
THE CWA SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STABLE...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN MNTNS...AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEDGE AIR MASS
WILL BE ABUNDANT...UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL DOME WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT. WHILE SCT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CAD AIR MASS...THERE MAY BE MORE OF A PATCHY
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY -RA SCENARIO OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE DIDN/T DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE INHERITED 30-40 POPS...BUT
ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...WEDGE EROSION SHOULD BE IN FULL EFFECT BY MONDAY...AS
THE WEAKENING PARENT HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH
MOISTURE LINGERING...ADDITIONAL HEATING TUE AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE
THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND 30-50 POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM SATURDAY...A GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE A
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A REINFORCING FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY...WHICH MAY FINALLY ALLOW SOME DRIER
AIR TO TRICKLE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A DAY OR SO WITH
LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE MAY RETURN BY
MID-WEEK IN ADVANCE OF AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY/THU. STRONG/EARLY AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY SHOULD THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THIS PARTICULAR CAD EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS ON THERE WAY UP LIFTING TO LOW VFR. COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY SE AND WILL SLIP BY THE AIRFIELD BY 21Z.
IT WILL BE CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY TSRA WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR JUST TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO FOR TSRA WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE PER LOCAL WRF MODEL. VFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR NEAR 12Z SUN AS COOL/MOIST WEDGE
LOCKS IN.

ELSEWHERE...KAVL AND KHKY SHOULD AVOID FRONTAL CONVECTION TODAY AND
HAVE VFR CEILINGS UNTIL MVFR WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT.
THE SC AIRFIELDS ARE LIKELY TO SEE TEMPO TSRA WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS WEDGE CLOUDINESS DEVLOPS.

OUTLOOK...WEDGE WILL HANG ON INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THE WEDGE SHOULD MIX OUT ON
MONDAY...BUT SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE INTO MIDWEEK OUTSIDE OF
RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  85%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     MED   60%     MED   62%
KGMU       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     MED   69%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  88%     MED   62%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...LG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 131534
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1134 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM...NOT MUCH ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT
-SHRA NC PIEDMONT. LATEST SFC MAP INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM JUST NW OF CLT...SW THROUGH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE INTO
NE GA. 12Z NAM MOVES THE FRONT SLOWLY SE AND BY 00Z LAYS IT OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE INTO NE GA. THE CAMS STILL LIKE THE IDEA
OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CAN`T ARGUE WITH THAT IN THAT DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING SBCAPES ALREADY EXCEED 1000J/KG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S AND PRECIP WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
NUMEROUS TYPE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT
ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NE GA. MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

12Z NAM IS INTERESTING IN THAT IT CONTINUES TO LIGHT UP THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION AND HEAVY PRECIP AS IT KEEPS QUASI-STATINARY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE UPSTATE. 3-4 INCHES
OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM CHESTER COUNTY WEST INTO GREENWOOD
COUNTY. I AM NOT QUITE READY TO BUY INTO THIS COMPLETELY BUT HAVE
GIVEN IT A NOD AND HELD ONTO THE LIKELY POPS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THAT AREA. WILL AWAIT THE 12Z GFS BEFORE ENTERTAINING ANY TYPE OF
FLOOD WATCH IDEA.

AS OF 845 AM...UPDATED THE POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH
FEATURES A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM AVERY COUNTY DONW INTO BUNCOMBE
COUNTY...APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. CAMS ARE STILL
FAVORING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM ABOUT THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...SW THROUGH UPSTATE SC.
HENCE...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY LIKELY POPS IN THAT AREA. POPS
THIS AFTERNOON WERE ADJUSTED BY BLENDING IN CONSHSORT. TEMP FIELDS
WERE POPULATED WITH CONSHSORT. THIS BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A COUPLE
DEGREES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

OF 645 AM EDT...THOUGH WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS HANGING ON BY A
THREAD OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT...THE WEAKENING ACTIVITY THERE IS
FORCED BY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE INVOF WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST SYSTEM DESCRIBED BELOW. INCREASING
ACTIVITY JUST W OF THE MTNS SUGGESTS POPS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY THIS
AM IN THE TENN BORDER ZONES...THEN SPREAD EAST AS FRONT MOVES ACRS
THE CWFA TODAY. ON ANOTHER NOTE...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS PRESENT OUT
THERE. UNLESS SFC OBS BEGIN TO SHOW A CONTIGUOUS AREA OF 1/4SM
VSBY...NO ADVY WILL BE NEEDED. HOWEVER CAUTION IS ADVISABLE ON RURAL
ROADS AND IN VALLEYS THRU 8-9 AM.

THIS MRNG...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER OH VLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THAT LOW AND WILL CROSS THE MTNS AROUND
MIDDAY. IT WILL THEN PROGRESS ACRS THE CWFA THIS AFTN/EVENING ACTING
TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS
SC BY SUNDAY MRNG ALLOWING ANOTHER WEDGE TO FORM AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.

POPS TODAY WILL PEAK EARLIER THAN CLIMO IN THE MTNS BEFORE COLD
ADVECTION INHIBITS CONVECTION...BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING
WARRANT KEEPING A MENTIONABLE POP THRU THE NEAR TERM. OVER THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT MODELS PRODUCE MODEST CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
STILL WITH WEAK SHEAR...AS ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES REMAIN WELL
TO OUR NORTH DURING THE PERIOD. THERE IS HOWEVER ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO
KEEP CELLS MOVING TO SOME DEGREE. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED...ESP
IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.  THEY
WON/T BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THOSE FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL BE AT A
LARGER ANGLE TO THE FRONT. ALTOGETHER THE FLOOD RISK IS NOT THAT
GREAT...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY
IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS. THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEDGE SHOULD ALLOW
CLOUDS TO LIFT BUT NOT BREAK UP...AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...WITH A WEDGE AGAIN SETTING UP...WEAK UPGLIDE RETURNS AS THE
LOW LIFTS AWAY AND THE BERMUDA HIGH REGAINS INFLUENCE ACRS THE
SOUTHEAST. THUS HAVE ALLOWED CHANCE POPS TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT INTO
THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR ABOVE THE WEDGE
INVERSION SO IT APPEARS THUNDER WILL BE OF LITTLE CONCERN ONCE IT
DEVELOPS. ONLY LIGHT QPF WILL BE ADVERTISED. THOUGH THEY WILL BE
COOLER THAN THOSE SATURDAY MRNG WITHIN THE POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS...MIN
TEMPS STILL WILL BE A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...A BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY...AS WEAKENING/MIGRATORY HIGH
PRESSURE OOZES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
REASONABLY HIGH THAT MAXES SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL AFFECT
THE CWA SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STABLE...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN MNTNS...AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEDGE AIR MASS
WILL BE ABUNDANT...UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL DOME WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT. WHILE SCT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CAD AIR MASS...THERE MAY BE MORE OF A PATCHY
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY -RA SCENARIO OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE DIDN/T DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE INHERITED 30-40 POPS...BUT
ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...WEDGE EROSION SHOULD BE IN FULL EFFECT BY MONDAY...AS
THE WEAKENING PARENT HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH
MOISTURE LINGERING...ADDITIONAL HEATING TUE AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE
THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND 30-50 POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM SATURDAY...A GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE A
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A REINFORCING FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY...WHICH MAY FINALLY ALLOW SOME DRIER
AIR TO TRICKLE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A DAY OR SO WITH
LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE MAY RETURN BY
MID-WEEK IN ADVANCE OF AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY/THU. STRONG/EARLY AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY SHOULD THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THIS PARTICULAR CAD EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIG SHOULD BE LOCKED IN AT LIFR UNTIL MID MRNG UNDER
PERSISTENT COOL WEDGE. WINDS ALOFT VEER AT MIDDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FROPA EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
LIFT...BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO GROW WITH THAT FRONT
COMING IN NEAR PEAK HEATING. SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE
OF PROLIFIC RAINFALL AND PERIODIC MVFR CIGS/VSBY...HENCE TEMPO. MVFR
TONIGHT AS WEDGE RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY BUT WILL PREVAIL NE IN
THE NEW WEDGE.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THRU THE MORNING...WITH
KHKY LIKELY THE LAST SITE TO GO MVFR AS IT IS MOST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION ACTING TO FOCUS DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE PREVAILED SHRA/TSRA NEAR TIME OF FROPA. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL ACRS GA/SC BASICALLY REINFORCING THE ONE WHICH IS
ALREADY STATIONARY IN THAT AREA...AND A WEDGE DEVELOPS TONIGHT ONCE
AGAIN. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL THE SITES EXCEPT KAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY PREVENTING COOLING OF THE SFC LAYER SO IFR IS
NOT ALLOWED TO PREVAIL. KAND WILL BE OUT OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEDGE AND STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF IFR.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. MORNING VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES EACH MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       MED   76%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   67%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     MED   67%
KGMU       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   67%
KAND       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 131534
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1134 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM...NOT MUCH ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT
-SHRA NC PIEDMONT. LATEST SFC MAP INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM JUST NW OF CLT...SW THROUGH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE INTO
NE GA. 12Z NAM MOVES THE FRONT SLOWLY SE AND BY 00Z LAYS IT OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE INTO NE GA. THE CAMS STILL LIKE THE IDEA
OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CAN`T ARGUE WITH THAT IN THAT DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING SBCAPES ALREADY EXCEED 1000J/KG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S AND PRECIP WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
NUMEROUS TYPE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT
ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NE GA. MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

12Z NAM IS INTERESTING IN THAT IT CONTINUES TO LIGHT UP THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION AND HEAVY PRECIP AS IT KEEPS QUASI-STATINARY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE UPSTATE. 3-4 INCHES
OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM CHESTER COUNTY WEST INTO GREENWOOD
COUNTY. I AM NOT QUITE READY TO BUY INTO THIS COMPLETELY BUT HAVE
GIVEN IT A NOD AND HELD ONTO THE LIKELY POPS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THAT AREA. WILL AWAIT THE 12Z GFS BEFORE ENTERTAINING ANY TYPE OF
FLOOD WATCH IDEA.

AS OF 845 AM...UPDATED THE POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH
FEATURES A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM AVERY COUNTY DONW INTO BUNCOMBE
COUNTY...APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. CAMS ARE STILL
FAVORING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM ABOUT THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...SW THROUGH UPSTATE SC.
HENCE...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY LIKELY POPS IN THAT AREA. POPS
THIS AFTERNOON WERE ADJUSTED BY BLENDING IN CONSHSORT. TEMP FIELDS
WERE POPULATED WITH CONSHSORT. THIS BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A COUPLE
DEGREES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

OF 645 AM EDT...THOUGH WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS HANGING ON BY A
THREAD OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT...THE WEAKENING ACTIVITY THERE IS
FORCED BY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE INVOF WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST SYSTEM DESCRIBED BELOW. INCREASING
ACTIVITY JUST W OF THE MTNS SUGGESTS POPS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY THIS
AM IN THE TENN BORDER ZONES...THEN SPREAD EAST AS FRONT MOVES ACRS
THE CWFA TODAY. ON ANOTHER NOTE...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS PRESENT OUT
THERE. UNLESS SFC OBS BEGIN TO SHOW A CONTIGUOUS AREA OF 1/4SM
VSBY...NO ADVY WILL BE NEEDED. HOWEVER CAUTION IS ADVISABLE ON RURAL
ROADS AND IN VALLEYS THRU 8-9 AM.

THIS MRNG...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER OH VLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THAT LOW AND WILL CROSS THE MTNS AROUND
MIDDAY. IT WILL THEN PROGRESS ACRS THE CWFA THIS AFTN/EVENING ACTING
TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS
SC BY SUNDAY MRNG ALLOWING ANOTHER WEDGE TO FORM AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.

POPS TODAY WILL PEAK EARLIER THAN CLIMO IN THE MTNS BEFORE COLD
ADVECTION INHIBITS CONVECTION...BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING
WARRANT KEEPING A MENTIONABLE POP THRU THE NEAR TERM. OVER THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT MODELS PRODUCE MODEST CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
STILL WITH WEAK SHEAR...AS ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES REMAIN WELL
TO OUR NORTH DURING THE PERIOD. THERE IS HOWEVER ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO
KEEP CELLS MOVING TO SOME DEGREE. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED...ESP
IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.  THEY
WON/T BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THOSE FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL BE AT A
LARGER ANGLE TO THE FRONT. ALTOGETHER THE FLOOD RISK IS NOT THAT
GREAT...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY
IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS. THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEDGE SHOULD ALLOW
CLOUDS TO LIFT BUT NOT BREAK UP...AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...WITH A WEDGE AGAIN SETTING UP...WEAK UPGLIDE RETURNS AS THE
LOW LIFTS AWAY AND THE BERMUDA HIGH REGAINS INFLUENCE ACRS THE
SOUTHEAST. THUS HAVE ALLOWED CHANCE POPS TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT INTO
THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR ABOVE THE WEDGE
INVERSION SO IT APPEARS THUNDER WILL BE OF LITTLE CONCERN ONCE IT
DEVELOPS. ONLY LIGHT QPF WILL BE ADVERTISED. THOUGH THEY WILL BE
COOLER THAN THOSE SATURDAY MRNG WITHIN THE POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS...MIN
TEMPS STILL WILL BE A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...A BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY...AS WEAKENING/MIGRATORY HIGH
PRESSURE OOZES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
REASONABLY HIGH THAT MAXES SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL AFFECT
THE CWA SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STABLE...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN MNTNS...AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEDGE AIR MASS
WILL BE ABUNDANT...UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL DOME WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT. WHILE SCT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CAD AIR MASS...THERE MAY BE MORE OF A PATCHY
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY -RA SCENARIO OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE DIDN/T DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE INHERITED 30-40 POPS...BUT
ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...WEDGE EROSION SHOULD BE IN FULL EFFECT BY MONDAY...AS
THE WEAKENING PARENT HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH
MOISTURE LINGERING...ADDITIONAL HEATING TUE AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE
THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND 30-50 POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM SATURDAY...A GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE A
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A REINFORCING FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY...WHICH MAY FINALLY ALLOW SOME DRIER
AIR TO TRICKLE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A DAY OR SO WITH
LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE MAY RETURN BY
MID-WEEK IN ADVANCE OF AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY/THU. STRONG/EARLY AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY SHOULD THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THIS PARTICULAR CAD EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIG SHOULD BE LOCKED IN AT LIFR UNTIL MID MRNG UNDER
PERSISTENT COOL WEDGE. WINDS ALOFT VEER AT MIDDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FROPA EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
LIFT...BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO GROW WITH THAT FRONT
COMING IN NEAR PEAK HEATING. SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE
OF PROLIFIC RAINFALL AND PERIODIC MVFR CIGS/VSBY...HENCE TEMPO. MVFR
TONIGHT AS WEDGE RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY BUT WILL PREVAIL NE IN
THE NEW WEDGE.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THRU THE MORNING...WITH
KHKY LIKELY THE LAST SITE TO GO MVFR AS IT IS MOST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION ACTING TO FOCUS DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE PREVAILED SHRA/TSRA NEAR TIME OF FROPA. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL ACRS GA/SC BASICALLY REINFORCING THE ONE WHICH IS
ALREADY STATIONARY IN THAT AREA...AND A WEDGE DEVELOPS TONIGHT ONCE
AGAIN. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL THE SITES EXCEPT KAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY PREVENTING COOLING OF THE SFC LAYER SO IFR IS
NOT ALLOWED TO PREVAIL. KAND WILL BE OUT OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEDGE AND STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF IFR.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. MORNING VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES EACH MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       MED   76%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   67%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     MED   67%
KGMU       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   67%
KAND       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 131247
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
847 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 845 AM...UPDATED THE POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH
FEATURES A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM AVERY COUNTY DOWN INTO BUNCOMBE
COUNTY...APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. CAMS ARE STILL
FAVORING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM ABOUT THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...SW THROUGH UPSTATE SC.
HENCE...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY LIKELY POPS IN THAT AREA. POPS
THIS AFTERNOON WERE ADJUSTED BY BLENDING IN CONSHSORT. TEMP FIELDS
WERE POPULATED WITH CONSHSORT. THIS BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A
COUPLE DEGREES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

OF 645 AM EDT...THOUGH WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS HANGING ON BY A
THREAD OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT...THE WEAKENING ACTIVITY THERE IS
FORCED BY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE INVOF WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST SYSTEM DESCRIBED BELOW. INCREASING
ACTIVITY JUST W OF THE MTNS SUGGESTS POPS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY THIS
AM IN THE TENN BORDER ZONES...THEN SPREAD EAST AS FRONT MOVES ACRS
THE CWFA TODAY. ON ANOTHER NOTE...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS PRESENT OUT
THERE. UNLESS SFC OBS BEGIN TO SHOW A CONTIGUOUS AREA OF 1/4SM
VSBY...NO ADVY WILL BE NEEDED. HOWEVER CAUTION IS ADVISABLE ON RURAL
ROADS AND IN VALLEYS THRU 8-9 AM.

THIS MRNG...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER OH VLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THAT LOW AND WILL CROSS THE MTNS AROUND
MIDDAY. IT WILL THEN PROGRESS ACRS THE CWFA THIS AFTN/EVENING ACTING
TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS
SC BY SUNDAY MRNG ALLOWING ANOTHER WEDGE TO FORM AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.

POPS TODAY WILL PEAK EARLIER THAN CLIMO IN THE MTNS BEFORE COLD
ADVECTION INHIBITS CONVECTION...BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING
WARRANT KEEPING A MENTIONABLE POP THRU THE NEAR TERM. OVER THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT MODELS PRODUCE MODEST CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
STILL WITH WEAK SHEAR...AS ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES REMAIN WELL
TO OUR NORTH DURING THE PERIOD. THERE IS HOWEVER ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO
KEEP CELLS MOVING TO SOME DEGREE. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED...ESP
IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.  THEY
WON/T BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THOSE FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL BE AT A
LARGER ANGLE TO THE FRONT. ALTOGETHER THE FLOOD RISK IS NOT THAT
GREAT...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY
IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS. THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEDGE SHOULD ALLOW
CLOUDS TO LIFT BUT NOT BREAK UP...AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...WITH A WEDGE AGAIN SETTING UP...WEAK UPGLIDE RETURNS AS THE
LOW LIFTS AWAY AND THE BERMUDA HIGH REGAINS INFLUENCE ACRS THE
SOUTHEAST. THUS HAVE ALLOWED CHANCE POPS TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT INTO
THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR ABOVE THE WEDGE
INVERSION SO IT APPEARS THUNDER WILL BE OF LITTLE CONCERN ONCE IT
DEVELOPS. ONLY LIGHT QPF WILL BE ADVERTISED. THOUGH THEY WILL BE
COOLER THAN THOSE SATURDAY MRNG WITHIN THE POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS...MIN
TEMPS STILL WILL BE A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...A BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY...AS WEAKENING/MIGRATORY HIGH
PRESSURE OOZES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
REASONABLY HIGH THAT MAXES SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL AFFECT
THE CWA SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STABLE...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN MNTNS...AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEDGE AIR MASS
WILL BE ABUNDANT...UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL DOME WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT. WHILE SCT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CAD AIR MASS...THERE MAY BE MORE OF A PATCHY
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY -RA SCENARIO OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE DIDN/T DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE INHERITED 30-40 POPS...BUT
ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...WEDGE EROSION SHOULD BE IN FULL EFFECT BY MONDAY...AS
THE WEAKENING PARENT HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH
MOISTURE LINGERING...ADDITIONAL HEATING TUE AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE
THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND 30-50 POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM SATURDAY...A GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE A
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A REINFORCING FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY...WHICH MAY FINALLY ALLOW SOME DRIER
AIR TO TRICKLE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A DAY OR SO WITH
LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE MAY RETURN BY
MID-WEEK IN ADVANCE OF AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY/THU. STRONG/EARLY AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY SHOULD THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THIS PARTICULAR CAD EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIG SHOULD BE LOCKED IN AT LIFR UNTIL MID MRNG UNDER
PERSISTENT COOL WEDGE. WINDS ALOFT VEER AT MIDDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FROPA EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
LIFT...BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO GROW WITH THAT FRONT
COMING IN NEAR PEAK HEATING. SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE
OF PROLIFIC RAINFALL AND PERIODIC MVFR CIGS/VSBY...HENCE TEMPO. MVFR
TONIGHT AS WEDGE RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY BUT WILL PREVAIL NE IN
THE NEW WEDGE.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THRU THE MORNING...WITH
KHKY LIKELY THE LAST SITE TO GO MVFR AS IT IS MOST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION ACTING TO FOCUS DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE PREVAILED SHRA/TSRA NEAR TIME OF FROPA. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL ACRS GA/SC BASICALLY REINFORCING THE ONE WHICH IS
ALREADY STATIONARY IN THAT AREA...AND A WEDGE DEVELOPS TONIGHT ONCE
AGAIN. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL THE SITES EXCEPT KAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY PREVENTING COOLING OF THE SFC LAYER SO IFR IS
NOT ALLOWED TO PREVAIL. KAND WILL BE OUT OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEDGE AND STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF IFR.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. MORNING VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES EACH MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       MED   70%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       MED   69%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  97%     LOW   57%
KGMU       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KAND       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 131247
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
847 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 845 AM...UPDATED THE POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH
FEATURES A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM AVERY COUNTY DOWN INTO BUNCOMBE
COUNTY...APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. CAMS ARE STILL
FAVORING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM ABOUT THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...SW THROUGH UPSTATE SC.
HENCE...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY LIKELY POPS IN THAT AREA. POPS
THIS AFTERNOON WERE ADJUSTED BY BLENDING IN CONSHSORT. TEMP FIELDS
WERE POPULATED WITH CONSHSORT. THIS BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A
COUPLE DEGREES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

OF 645 AM EDT...THOUGH WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS HANGING ON BY A
THREAD OVER THE NW NC PIEDMONT...THE WEAKENING ACTIVITY THERE IS
FORCED BY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE INVOF WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST SYSTEM DESCRIBED BELOW. INCREASING
ACTIVITY JUST W OF THE MTNS SUGGESTS POPS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY THIS
AM IN THE TENN BORDER ZONES...THEN SPREAD EAST AS FRONT MOVES ACRS
THE CWFA TODAY. ON ANOTHER NOTE...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS PRESENT OUT
THERE. UNLESS SFC OBS BEGIN TO SHOW A CONTIGUOUS AREA OF 1/4SM
VSBY...NO ADVY WILL BE NEEDED. HOWEVER CAUTION IS ADVISABLE ON RURAL
ROADS AND IN VALLEYS THRU 8-9 AM.

THIS MRNG...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER OH VLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THAT LOW AND WILL CROSS THE MTNS AROUND
MIDDAY. IT WILL THEN PROGRESS ACRS THE CWFA THIS AFTN/EVENING ACTING
TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS
SC BY SUNDAY MRNG ALLOWING ANOTHER WEDGE TO FORM AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.

POPS TODAY WILL PEAK EARLIER THAN CLIMO IN THE MTNS BEFORE COLD
ADVECTION INHIBITS CONVECTION...BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING
WARRANT KEEPING A MENTIONABLE POP THRU THE NEAR TERM. OVER THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT MODELS PRODUCE MODEST CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
STILL WITH WEAK SHEAR...AS ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES REMAIN WELL
TO OUR NORTH DURING THE PERIOD. THERE IS HOWEVER ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO
KEEP CELLS MOVING TO SOME DEGREE. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED...ESP
IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.  THEY
WON/T BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THOSE FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL BE AT A
LARGER ANGLE TO THE FRONT. ALTOGETHER THE FLOOD RISK IS NOT THAT
GREAT...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY
IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS. THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEDGE SHOULD ALLOW
CLOUDS TO LIFT BUT NOT BREAK UP...AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...WITH A WEDGE AGAIN SETTING UP...WEAK UPGLIDE RETURNS AS THE
LOW LIFTS AWAY AND THE BERMUDA HIGH REGAINS INFLUENCE ACRS THE
SOUTHEAST. THUS HAVE ALLOWED CHANCE POPS TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT INTO
THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR ABOVE THE WEDGE
INVERSION SO IT APPEARS THUNDER WILL BE OF LITTLE CONCERN ONCE IT
DEVELOPS. ONLY LIGHT QPF WILL BE ADVERTISED. THOUGH THEY WILL BE
COOLER THAN THOSE SATURDAY MRNG WITHIN THE POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS...MIN
TEMPS STILL WILL BE A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...A BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY...AS WEAKENING/MIGRATORY HIGH
PRESSURE OOZES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
REASONABLY HIGH THAT MAXES SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL AFFECT
THE CWA SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STABLE...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN MNTNS...AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEDGE AIR MASS
WILL BE ABUNDANT...UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL DOME WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT. WHILE SCT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CAD AIR MASS...THERE MAY BE MORE OF A PATCHY
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY -RA SCENARIO OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE DIDN/T DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE INHERITED 30-40 POPS...BUT
ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...WEDGE EROSION SHOULD BE IN FULL EFFECT BY MONDAY...AS
THE WEAKENING PARENT HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH
MOISTURE LINGERING...ADDITIONAL HEATING TUE AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE
THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND 30-50 POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM SATURDAY...A GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE A
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A REINFORCING FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY...WHICH MAY FINALLY ALLOW SOME DRIER
AIR TO TRICKLE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A DAY OR SO WITH
LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE MAY RETURN BY
MID-WEEK IN ADVANCE OF AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY/THU. STRONG/EARLY AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY SHOULD THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THIS PARTICULAR CAD EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIG SHOULD BE LOCKED IN AT LIFR UNTIL MID MRNG UNDER
PERSISTENT COOL WEDGE. WINDS ALOFT VEER AT MIDDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FROPA EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
LIFT...BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO GROW WITH THAT FRONT
COMING IN NEAR PEAK HEATING. SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE
OF PROLIFIC RAINFALL AND PERIODIC MVFR CIGS/VSBY...HENCE TEMPO. MVFR
TONIGHT AS WEDGE RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY BUT WILL PREVAIL NE IN
THE NEW WEDGE.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THRU THE MORNING...WITH
KHKY LIKELY THE LAST SITE TO GO MVFR AS IT IS MOST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION ACTING TO FOCUS DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE PREVAILED SHRA/TSRA NEAR TIME OF FROPA. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL ACRS GA/SC BASICALLY REINFORCING THE ONE WHICH IS
ALREADY STATIONARY IN THAT AREA...AND A WEDGE DEVELOPS TONIGHT ONCE
AGAIN. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL THE SITES EXCEPT KAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY PREVENTING COOLING OF THE SFC LAYER SO IFR IS
NOT ALLOWED TO PREVAIL. KAND WILL BE OUT OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEDGE AND STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF IFR.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. MORNING VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES EACH MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       MED   70%     HIGH  99%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       MED   69%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  97%     LOW   57%
KGMU       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KAND       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY








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