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000
FXUS62 KGSP 041049
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
649 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT... COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND USHER IN AN EVEN COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A
WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OF 645 AM...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATED A FEW WEAK SHOWERS OVER
THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY NEAR THE TN/NC LINE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY COME AND GO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. I
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPS...WINDS...AND POPS.

AS OF 345 AM...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...A MID LEVEL OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP. AT THE SFC...THE FIRST COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EARLY THIS MORNING...A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SC FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL LLVL THICKNESSES SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMALS.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOW AND PROVIDE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. I WILL
FORECAST 30% COVERAGE TONIGHT AND OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. BROAD
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE MTN
RIDGES TO NEAR 50 ACROSS EASTERN CLT METRO. A ROTATING LOW CENTER
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD. RIDGE TOP SHOWER COULD FALL AS A PERIOD OF
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE BIG STORY WITH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MIXING TO BE
AS DEEP AS FCST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT WARMER IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...
BUT EXPECT ENUF INSTABILITY THAT SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR PROBABLY AREAS OF
UPSTATE SC AND NE GEORGIA TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THUS...THE FCST WILL STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND PARTS OF THE UPSTATE WHERE
CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MTNS SHOULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS WILL
SUPPORT A LIKELY POP ON THE TN BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. STILL THINK PRECIP CHANCES E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING ON THURSDAY
EVENING...SO PRECIP PROB GRADUALLY TAPERS BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ON THE TN BORDER. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL AGAIN...BUT NOT NEARLY
CLOSE TO RECORDS...OR COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT A FREEZE. A STEADY
NW WIND WILL PROBABLY ALSO PRECLUDE ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE SUGGESTED FOR FRIDAY...EITHER...AS THE UPPER
LOW SPINS AWAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SO A SMALL PRECIP
CHANCE WAS KEPT ALONG AND E OF I-77. THAT TOO SHOULD END WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A GROWING CONSENSUS WITH
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY REGARDING THE OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING NWD ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND BEING ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT UPPER LOW
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE REINFORCING OF THE DEEP EASTERN UPPER
TROF SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONT DOWN INTO THE FCST AREA ON
SUNDAY THAT COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIP...MAINLY ON THE
W SIDE OF THE MTNS. AT ANY RATE...WITH THE MODELS HANDLING THIS
FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY...PERHAPS NOW IT IS TIME TO START INCREASING THE
PRECIP CHANCES OVER MAINLY THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT BACK NWD ON MONDAY...PUTTING
THE FCST AREA BACK INTO A WARM SECTOR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE NEXT FRONT OFF TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT HAS SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. NW WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THE KAND WILL DEVELOP
MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN WINDS TO BACK FROM THE SW. WINDS WILL
LIKELY VEER BACK FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF A LATE NIGHT FROPA.

AT KAVL...WINDS CHANNELED WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY SHOULD
YIELD WINDS FROM THE 350 DEGREES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY...FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
DURING THE 23Z TO 5Z PERIOD...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A PROB30. THE
ARRIVAL OF LLVL MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS SHOULD YIELD
PERIODS OF MVFR UPSLOPE CEILINGS BY 5Z...RETURNING TO VFR DURING THE
LATE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 041049
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
649 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT... COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND USHER IN AN EVEN COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A
WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OF 645 AM...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATED A FEW WEAK SHOWERS OVER
THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY NEAR THE TN/NC LINE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY COME AND GO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. I
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPS...WINDS...AND POPS.

AS OF 345 AM...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...A MID LEVEL OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP. AT THE SFC...THE FIRST COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EARLY THIS MORNING...A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SC FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL LLVL THICKNESSES SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMALS.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOW AND PROVIDE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. I WILL
FORECAST 30% COVERAGE TONIGHT AND OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. BROAD
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE MTN
RIDGES TO NEAR 50 ACROSS EASTERN CLT METRO. A ROTATING LOW CENTER
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD. RIDGE TOP SHOWER COULD FALL AS A PERIOD OF
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE BIG STORY WITH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MIXING TO BE
AS DEEP AS FCST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT WARMER IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...
BUT EXPECT ENUF INSTABILITY THAT SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR PROBABLY AREAS OF
UPSTATE SC AND NE GEORGIA TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THUS...THE FCST WILL STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND PARTS OF THE UPSTATE WHERE
CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MTNS SHOULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS WILL
SUPPORT A LIKELY POP ON THE TN BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. STILL THINK PRECIP CHANCES E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING ON THURSDAY
EVENING...SO PRECIP PROB GRADUALLY TAPERS BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ON THE TN BORDER. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL AGAIN...BUT NOT NEARLY
CLOSE TO RECORDS...OR COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT A FREEZE. A STEADY
NW WIND WILL PROBABLY ALSO PRECLUDE ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE SUGGESTED FOR FRIDAY...EITHER...AS THE UPPER
LOW SPINS AWAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SO A SMALL PRECIP
CHANCE WAS KEPT ALONG AND E OF I-77. THAT TOO SHOULD END WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A GROWING CONSENSUS WITH
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY REGARDING THE OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING NWD ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND BEING ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT UPPER LOW
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE REINFORCING OF THE DEEP EASTERN UPPER
TROF SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONT DOWN INTO THE FCST AREA ON
SUNDAY THAT COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIP...MAINLY ON THE
W SIDE OF THE MTNS. AT ANY RATE...WITH THE MODELS HANDLING THIS
FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY...PERHAPS NOW IT IS TIME TO START INCREASING THE
PRECIP CHANCES OVER MAINLY THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT BACK NWD ON MONDAY...PUTTING
THE FCST AREA BACK INTO A WARM SECTOR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE NEXT FRONT OFF TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT HAS SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. NW WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THE KAND WILL DEVELOP
MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN WINDS TO BACK FROM THE SW. WINDS WILL
LIKELY VEER BACK FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF A LATE NIGHT FROPA.

AT KAVL...WINDS CHANNELED WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY SHOULD
YIELD WINDS FROM THE 350 DEGREES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY...FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
DURING THE 23Z TO 5Z PERIOD...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A PROB30. THE
ARRIVAL OF LLVL MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS SHOULD YIELD
PERIODS OF MVFR UPSLOPE CEILINGS BY 5Z...RETURNING TO VFR DURING THE
LATE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 040749
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT... COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND USHER IN AN EVEN COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A
WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL
SLIDE SE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...A MID LEVEL OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP. AT THE SFC...THE FIRST COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EARLY THIS MORNING...A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SC FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL LLVL THICKNESSES SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMALS.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOW AND PROVIDE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. I WILL
FORECAST 30% COVERAGE TONIGHT AND OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. BROAD
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE MTN
RIDGES TO NEAR 50 ACROSS EASTERN CLT METRO. A ROTATING LOW CENTER
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE BIG STORY WITH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MIXING TO BE
AS DEEP AS FCST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT WARMER IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...
BUT EXPECT ENUF INSTABILITY THAT SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR PROBABLY AREAS OF
UPSTATE SC AND NE GEORGIA TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THUS...THE FCST WILL STILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE NC PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND PARTS OF THE UPSTATE WHERE
CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MTNS SHOULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS WILL
SUPPORT A LIKELY POP ON THE TN BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. STILL THINK PRECIP CHANCES E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING ON THURSDAY
EVENING...SO PRECIP PROB GRADUALLY TAPERS BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ON THE TN BORDER. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL AGAIN...BUT NOT NEARLY
CLOSE TO RECORDS...OR COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT A FREEZE. A STEADY
NW WIND WILL PROBABLY ALSO PRECLUDE ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE SUGGESTED FOR FRIDAY...EITHER...AS THE UPPER
LOW SPINS AWAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SO A SMALL PRECIP
CHANCE WAS KEPT ALONG AND E OF I-77. THAT TOO SHOULD END WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A GROWING CONSENSUS WITH
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY REGARDING THE OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING NWD ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND BEING ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT UPPER LOW
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE REINFORCING OF THE DEEP EASTERN UPPER
TROF SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONT DOWN INTO THE FCST AREA ON
SUNDAY THAT COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIP...MAINLY ON THE
W SIDE OF THE MTNS. AT ANY RATE...WITH THE MODELS HANDLING THIS
FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY...PERHAPS NOW IT IS TIME TO START INCREASING THE
PRECIP CHANCES OVER MAINLY THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT BACK NWD ON MONDAY...PUTTING
THE FCST AREA BACK INTO A WARM SECTOR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE NEXT FRONT OFF TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. NW
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO AROUND
10KTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THE KAND WILL
DEVELOP MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN WINDS TO BACK FROM THE SW.

AT KAVL...WINDS CHANNELED WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY SHOULD
YIELD WINDS FROM THE 350 DEGREES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY...FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
DURING THE 23Z TO 5Z PERIOD...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A PROB30. THE
ARRIVAL OF LLVL MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS SHOULD YIELD
PERIODS OF MVFR UPSLOPE CEILINGS BY 5Z.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 040535
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 135 AM...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. NW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE KAND WILL DEVELOP MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN WINDS
TO BACK FROM THE SW.

AS OF 1020 PM...CONVECTION ALONG THE ROWAN/CABARRUS BORDER SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. RADAR DOES NOT SHOW ANY SHOWERS
OVER OR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. HAVE UPDATED POP
TRENDS TO SHOW THESE FEATURES. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TN BORDER. THIS IS DUE TO A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH DRIER
AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA...NW FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE BORDER SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE WAVE
TO CREATE THE SHOWERS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST FORCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL RUN A
CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. H5 TEMPS WILL
DIP TO MINUS 25 DEG C OR COLDER UNDER THE LOW CENTER...WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REINFORCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT LOW LEVELS...WITH NW UPSLOPE
MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WESTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
EARLY THU THROUGH FRI. ALTHOUGH PROFILES GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OR GRAUPEL ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES...ESPECIALLY THU
MORNING...A SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY. WILL ALSO PERMIT LOWER CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST ALONG MAINLY THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THU
AFTN. THE 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL THEN MEANDER AND VERY SLOWLY FILL
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH WESTERN
CAROLINA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRIER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO PLACE...BUT WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. BETTER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT COULD FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN AND INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. NW
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO AROUND
10KTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THE KAND WILL
DEVELOP MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN WINDS TO BACK FROM THE SW.

AT KAVL...WINDS CHANNELED WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY SHOULD
YIELD WINDS FROM THE 350 DEGREES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY...FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
DURING THE 23Z TO 5Z PERIOD...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A PROB30. THE
ARRIVAL OF LLVL MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS SHOULD YIELD
PERIODS OF MVFR UPSLOPE CEILINGS BY 5Z.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   57%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...NED/RWH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 040535
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 135 AM...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. NW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE KAND WILL DEVELOP MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN WINDS
TO BACK FROM THE SW.

AS OF 1020 PM...CONVECTION ALONG THE ROWAN/CABARRUS BORDER SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. RADAR DOES NOT SHOW ANY SHOWERS
OVER OR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. HAVE UPDATED POP
TRENDS TO SHOW THESE FEATURES. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TN BORDER. THIS IS DUE TO A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH DRIER
AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA...NW FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE BORDER SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE WAVE
TO CREATE THE SHOWERS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST FORCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL RUN A
CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. H5 TEMPS WILL
DIP TO MINUS 25 DEG C OR COLDER UNDER THE LOW CENTER...WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REINFORCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT LOW LEVELS...WITH NW UPSLOPE
MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WESTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
EARLY THU THROUGH FRI. ALTHOUGH PROFILES GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OR GRAUPEL ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES...ESPECIALLY THU
MORNING...A SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY. WILL ALSO PERMIT LOWER CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST ALONG MAINLY THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THU
AFTN. THE 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL THEN MEANDER AND VERY SLOWLY FILL
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH WESTERN
CAROLINA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRIER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO PLACE...BUT WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. BETTER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT COULD FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN AND INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. NW
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO AROUND
10KTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THE KAND WILL
DEVELOP MARGINAL WIND GUSTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN WINDS TO BACK FROM THE SW.

AT KAVL...WINDS CHANNELED WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY SHOULD
YIELD WINDS FROM THE 350 DEGREES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FREQUENTLY GUST INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY...FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
DURING THE 23Z TO 5Z PERIOD...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A PROB30. THE
ARRIVAL OF LLVL MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS SHOULD YIELD
PERIODS OF MVFR UPSLOPE CEILINGS BY 5Z.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   57%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...NED/RWH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 040221
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1021 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...CONVECTION ALONG THE ROWAN/CABARRUS BORDER SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. RADAR DOES NOT SHOW ANY SHOWERS
OVER OR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. HAVE UPDATED POP
TRENDS TO SHOW THESE FEATURES. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TN BORDER. THIS IS DUE TO A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH DRIER
AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA...NW FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE BORDER SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE WAVE
TO CREATE THE SHOWERS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST FORCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL RUN A
CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. H5 TEMPS WILL
DIP TO MINUS 25 DEG C OR COLDER UNDER THE LOW CENTER...WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REINFORCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT LOW LEVELS...WITH NW UPSLOPE
MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WESTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
EARLY THU THROUGH FRI. ALTHOUGH PROFILES GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OR GRAUPEL ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES...ESPECIALLY THU
MORNING...A SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY. WILL ALSO PERMIT LOWER CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST ALONG MAINLY THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THU
AFTN. THE 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL THEN MEANDER AND VERY SLOWLY FILL
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH WESTERN
CAROLINA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRIER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO PLACE...BUT WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. BETTER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT COULD FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN AND INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS COULD
REACH THE AIRFIELD BRIEFLY TURNING THE WINDS NW BEFORE THE MAIN
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRINGING A PERMANENT WIND SHIFT. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SW WIND BECOMING NW EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIND TURNS N OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS THERE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
MIXING BRINGS A STRONGER WNW WIND. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW END
GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING. THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED LOW VFR CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OFF AND ON MID OR HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS.

ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AT TAF SITES...
WITH CONVECTION NORTH OF CLT MOVING OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG AT TAF SITES...BUT BRIEF FOG COULD DEVELOP ELSEWHERE
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LINGERING LOW VFR
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS MOISTURE MOVES UP THE VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BEFORE NOON. SW WINDS BECOME NW THIS EVENING...THEN BACK
TO W DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. KAVL WILL SEE NNW WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS
AS MIXING DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   67%     MED   62%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 032348
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
748 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...STRONG STORMS STILL ONGOING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. WILL WAIT TO DROP THE WATCH UNTIL THE THREAT OF
STORMS HAS DIMINISHED. SCATTERED CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND 850
MB FLOW WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NW. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AND
SHOULD CUT OFF POPS TO JUST ALONG THE TN BORDER THANKS TO UPSLOPE BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN SPITE OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST
FORCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
RUN A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. H5 TEMPS WILL
DIP TO MINUS 25 DEG C OR COLDER UNDER THE LOW CENTER...WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REINFORCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT LOW LEVELS...WITH NW UPSLOPE
MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WESTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
EARLY THU THROUGH FRI. ALTHOUGH PROFILES GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OR GRAUPEL ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES...ESPECIALLY THU
MORNING...A SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY. WILL ALSO PERMIT LOWER CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST ALONG MAINLY THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THU
AFTN. THE 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL THEN MEANDER AND VERY SLOWLY FILL
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH WESTERN
CAROLINA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRIER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO PLACE...BUT WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. BETTER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT COULD FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN AND INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS COULD
REACH THE AIRFIELD BRIEFLY TURNING THE WINDS NW BEFORE THE MAIN
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRINGING A PERMANENT WIND SHIFT. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SW WIND BECOMING NW EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIND TURNS N OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS THERE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
MIXING BRINGS A STRONGER WNW WIND. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW END
GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING. THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED LOW VFR CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OFF AND ON MID OR HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS.

ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AT TAF SITES...
WITH CONVECTION NORTH OF CLT MOVING OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG AT TAF SITES...BUT BRIEF FOG COULD DEVELOP ELSEWHERE
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LINGERING LOW VFR
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS MOISTURE MOVES UP THE VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BEFORE NOON. SW WINDS BECOME NW THIS EVENING...THEN BACK
TO W DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. KAVL WILL SEE NNW WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS
AS MIXING DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   61%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 032348
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
748 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...STRONG STORMS STILL ONGOING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. WILL WAIT TO DROP THE WATCH UNTIL THE THREAT OF
STORMS HAS DIMINISHED. SCATTERED CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND 850
MB FLOW WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NW. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AND
SHOULD CUT OFF POPS TO JUST ALONG THE TN BORDER THANKS TO UPSLOPE BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN SPITE OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST
FORCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
RUN A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. H5 TEMPS WILL
DIP TO MINUS 25 DEG C OR COLDER UNDER THE LOW CENTER...WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REINFORCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT LOW LEVELS...WITH NW UPSLOPE
MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WESTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
EARLY THU THROUGH FRI. ALTHOUGH PROFILES GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OR GRAUPEL ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES...ESPECIALLY THU
MORNING...A SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY. WILL ALSO PERMIT LOWER CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST ALONG MAINLY THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THU
AFTN. THE 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL THEN MEANDER AND VERY SLOWLY FILL
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH WESTERN
CAROLINA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRIER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO PLACE...BUT WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. BETTER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT COULD FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN AND INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS COULD
REACH THE AIRFIELD BRIEFLY TURNING THE WINDS NW BEFORE THE MAIN
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRINGING A PERMANENT WIND SHIFT. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SW WIND BECOMING NW EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIND TURNS N OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS THERE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
MIXING BRINGS A STRONGER WNW WIND. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW END
GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING. THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED LOW VFR CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OFF AND ON MID OR HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS.

ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AT TAF SITES...
WITH CONVECTION NORTH OF CLT MOVING OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG AT TAF SITES...BUT BRIEF FOG COULD DEVELOP ELSEWHERE
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LINGERING LOW VFR
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS MOISTURE MOVES UP THE VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BEFORE NOON. SW WINDS BECOME NW THIS EVENING...THEN BACK
TO W DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. KAVL WILL SEE NNW WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS
AS MIXING DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   61%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 032038
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...STRONG STORMS STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...
WITH ISOLATED STORMS FORMING BACK OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED
STORMS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AS WELL. LATEST MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATCH AREA...
SCATTERED COVERAGE BACK TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS...AND ISOLATED AT BEST
ELSEWHERE BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE. HAVE UPDATED POP TO SHOW
THESE TRENDS. WILL LEAVE THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG STORMS.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND 850
MB FLOW WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NW. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AND
SHOULD CUT OFF POPS TO JUST ALONG THE TN BORDER THANKS TO UPSLOPE BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN SPITE OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST
FORCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
RUN A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. H5 TEMPS WILL
DIP TO MINUS 25 DEG C OR COLDER UNDER THE LOW CENTER...WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REINFORCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT LOW LEVELS...WITH NW UPSLOPE
MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WESTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
EARLY THU THROUGH FRI. ALTHOUGH PROFILES GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OR GRAUPEL ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES...ESPECIALLY THU
MORNING...A SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY. WILL ALSO PERMIT LOWER CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST ALONG MAINLY THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THU
AFTN. THE 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL THEN MEANDER AND VERY SLOWLY FILL
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH WESTERN
CAROLINA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRIER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO PLACE...BUT WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. BETTER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT COULD FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN AND INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...STORM CURRENTLY OVER THE AIRFIELD WILL MOVE EAST BY 21Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER SHOWER OR STORM BEFORE SUNSET...BUT CHANCE
IS LOW. OTHER THAN VARIABLE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SW DIRECTION THRU ABOUT 02Z...WITH
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST. THEN WINDS SWITCH TO NW FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO 6 KT OR MORE BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR OTHER THAN WITH THE
TSRA...WITH LINGERING LOW VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING OUT AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS FAVORING A SUBTLE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG
THE NC/SC BORDER...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DRYING NWLY FLOW TAKING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR VFR CIGS
MAINLY IN THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...AND MVFR CIGS WORKING UP THE
VALLEY TO KAVL. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ANY SITES THAT
RECEIVE SOME RAIN THIS AFTN/EVE THEN SEE WINDS GO LIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. BUT OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG TONIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK/RWH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 031857
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM...WITH COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE HAVE ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE I-77 CORRIDOR THRU 9 PM THIS EVENING.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN GENERALLY DISCRETE WITH ENOUGH SHEAR FOR
SOME SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...AS LLVL SHEAR IS TOO WEAK FOR A TORNADO THREAT.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE EASTERN
BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...FAVORING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ROUGHLY ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. THE CAMS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THIS ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA LATER THIS AFTN. SO
HAVE LIKELY POPS THERE. THE REST OF THE CWFA LOOKS TO SEE MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS FORCING IS WEAK TO MODEST AND
CAPE IS ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG. STILL...BULK SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE FOR
THE STRONGEST CELLS TO GAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE SEVERE STORMS IS MAINLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN TO
EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND 850
MB FLOW WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NW. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AND
SHOULD CUT OFF POPS TO JUST ALONG THE TN BORDER THANKS TO UPSLOPE BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN SPITE OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST
FORCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
RUN A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. H5 TEMPS WILL
DIP TO MINUS 25 DEG C OR COLDER UNDER THE LOW CENTER...WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REINFORCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT LOW LEVELS...WITH NW UPSLOPE
MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WESTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
EARLY THU THROUGH FRI. ALTHOUGH PROFILES GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OR GRAUPEL ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES...ESPECIALLY THU
MORNING...A SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT BAY. WILL ALSO PERMIT LOWER CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST ALONG MAINLY THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THU
AFTN. THE 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL THEN MEANDER AND VERY SLOWLY FILL
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH WESTERN
CAROLINA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRIER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO PLACE...BUT WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. BETTER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT COULD FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAIRLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN AND INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IS FIRING ACROSS THE NC ESCARPMENT AND TRACKING
EAST...WITH THE MAIN TSTM MAKING A BEELINE FOR KCLT. TIMING THE
STORM...EXPECT IT TO BE IN THE VICINITY IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME.
OTHER THAN VARIABLE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SW DIRECTION THRU ABOUT 02Z...WITH
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST. THEN WINDS SWITCH TO NW FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO 6 KT OR MORE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR OTHER THAN WITH THE TSRA...WITH
LINGERING LOW VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS FAVORING A SUBTLE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG
THE NC/SC BORDER...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DRYING NWLY FLOW TAKING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR VFR CIGS
MAINLY IN THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...AND MVFR CIGS WORKING UP THE
VALLEY TO KAVL. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ANY SITES THAT
RECEIVE SOME RAIN THIS AFTN/EVE THEN SEE WINDS GO LIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. BUT OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG TONIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     MED   73%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 031809
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
209 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL USHER
IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE EASTERN
BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...FAVORING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ROUGHLY ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. THE CAMS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THIS ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA LATER THIS AFTN. SO
HAVE LIKELY POPS THERE. THE REST OF THE CWFA LOOKS TO SEE MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS FORCING IS WEAK TO MODEST AND
CAPE IS ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG. STILL...BULK SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE FOR
THE STRONGEST CELLS TO GAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE SEVERE STORMS IS MAINLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN TO
EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND 850
MB FLOW WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NW. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AND
SHOULD CUT OFF POPS TO JUST ALONG THE TN BORDER THANKS TO UPSLOPE BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN SPITE OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST
FORCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
RUN A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL BE THE BIG COOL DOWN COURTESY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. NOT EXACTLY BLACKBERRY WINTER...AS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
LOW TEMPS WILL GET ANYWHERE NEAR RECORDS...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL
NONETHELESS. WE BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN A RELATIVE LULL AS A
DRY SLOT CROSSES THE FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL VORT LOBE.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR PRECIP
TO DEVELOP...SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE BROUGHT DOWN BELOW 15 PCT THRU
MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
BRINGING THE MAIN VORT CENTER DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY SO PRECIP CHANCES GO UP
FROM THERE. THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT CENTER ACROSS THE FCST AREA
SHOULD FORCE SHOWERS TO BREACH THE MTNS AND MOVE OUT E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE VORT PASSES...PRECIP
PRODUCTION SHOULD SCALE BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN BORDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AND RESULT IN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD
BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WET BULB ZERO AROUND 5K FEET...SO SMALL HAIL WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE GROUND IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN
BORDER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE ANY FROST...AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENUF FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS SLOWLY AWAY ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCE IS WARRANTED
OVER THE NRN MTNS...AND PERHAPS E OF I-77 CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GT LAKES
AND ERN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND MIGHT BE A BIT DEEPER THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND IN RESPONSE THE MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHES A
SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER S INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NRN
ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH IS HARDLY COMPELLING ENOUGH TO
CHANGE AN ONGOING DRY FCST. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT OUR
WEATHER MIGHT NOT BE QUITE AS FAIR LATE IN THE PERIOD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OVERALL...JUST
SOME TWEAKS TO PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SWD TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE...WE MIGHT NOT BE SEEING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CURRENTLY
CARRIED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IS FIRING ACROSS THE NC ESCARPMENT AND TRACKING
EAST...WITH THE MAIN TSTM MAKING A BEELINE FOR KCLT. TIMING THE
STORM...EXPECT IT TO BE IN THE VICINITY IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME.
OTHER THAN VARIABLE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SW DIRECTION THRU ABOUT 02Z...WITH
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST. THEN WINDS SWITCH TO NW FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO 6 KT OR MORE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR OTHER THAN WITH THE TSRA...WITH
LINGERING LOW VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS FAVORING A SUBTLE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG
THE NC/SC BORDER...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DRYING NWLY FLOW TAKING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR VFR CIGS
MAINLY IN THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...AND MVFR CIGS WORKING UP THE
VALLEY TO KAVL. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ANY SITES THAT
RECEIVE SOME RAIN THIS AFTN/EVE THEN SEE WINDS GO LIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. BUT OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG TONIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     MED   76%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK/WJM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 031809
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
209 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL USHER
IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE EASTERN
BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...FAVORING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ROUGHLY ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. THE CAMS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THIS ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA LATER THIS AFTN. SO
HAVE LIKELY POPS THERE. THE REST OF THE CWFA LOOKS TO SEE MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS FORCING IS WEAK TO MODEST AND
CAPE IS ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG. STILL...BULK SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE FOR
THE STRONGEST CELLS TO GAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE SEVERE STORMS IS MAINLY ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN TO
EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND 850
MB FLOW WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NW. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AND
SHOULD CUT OFF POPS TO JUST ALONG THE TN BORDER THANKS TO UPSLOPE BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN SPITE OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO I EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL AT LEAST
FORCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
RUN A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THRU THE LONGWAVE
TROF AXIS...SHARPENING THE TROF AND CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW BY END
OF THE DAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS BY 00Z
THU. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...AND POPS WILL START
TO RAMP UP ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
MTNS...MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...THICKNESSES FALL SHARPLY FROM PREVIOUS
DAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL BE THE BIG COOL DOWN COURTESY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. NOT EXACTLY BLACKBERRY WINTER...AS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
LOW TEMPS WILL GET ANYWHERE NEAR RECORDS...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL
NONETHELESS. WE BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN A RELATIVE LULL AS A
DRY SLOT CROSSES THE FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL VORT LOBE.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR PRECIP
TO DEVELOP...SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE BROUGHT DOWN BELOW 15 PCT THRU
MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
BRINGING THE MAIN VORT CENTER DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY SO PRECIP CHANCES GO UP
FROM THERE. THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT CENTER ACROSS THE FCST AREA
SHOULD FORCE SHOWERS TO BREACH THE MTNS AND MOVE OUT E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE VORT PASSES...PRECIP
PRODUCTION SHOULD SCALE BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN BORDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AND RESULT IN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD
BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WET BULB ZERO AROUND 5K FEET...SO SMALL HAIL WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE GROUND IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN
BORDER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE ANY FROST...AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENUF FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS SLOWLY AWAY ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCE IS WARRANTED
OVER THE NRN MTNS...AND PERHAPS E OF I-77 CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GT LAKES
AND ERN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND MIGHT BE A BIT DEEPER THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND IN RESPONSE THE MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHES A
SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER S INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NRN
ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH IS HARDLY COMPELLING ENOUGH TO
CHANGE AN ONGOING DRY FCST. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT OUR
WEATHER MIGHT NOT BE QUITE AS FAIR LATE IN THE PERIOD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OVERALL...JUST
SOME TWEAKS TO PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SWD TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE...WE MIGHT NOT BE SEEING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CURRENTLY
CARRIED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IS FIRING ACROSS THE NC ESCARPMENT AND TRACKING
EAST...WITH THE MAIN TSTM MAKING A BEELINE FOR KCLT. TIMING THE
STORM...EXPECT IT TO BE IN THE VICINITY IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME.
OTHER THAN VARIABLE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SW DIRECTION THRU ABOUT 02Z...WITH
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST. THEN WINDS SWITCH TO NW FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO 6 KT OR MORE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR OTHER THAN WITH THE TSRA...WITH
LINGERING LOW VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS FAVORING A SUBTLE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG
THE NC/SC BORDER...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DRYING NWLY FLOW TAKING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR VFR CIGS
MAINLY IN THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...AND MVFR CIGS WORKING UP THE
VALLEY TO KAVL. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ANY SITES THAT
RECEIVE SOME RAIN THIS AFTN/EVE THEN SEE WINDS GO LIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. BUT OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG TONIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE NC SITES
BOTH THU AND FRI AFTN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     MED   76%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK/WJM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 031409
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1009 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL USHER
IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT ENTERS FROM THE
WEST. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA TO AL...ROUGHLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AT 12Z. THIS FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
AFTN. MORNING SHOWERS ARE DYING OFF AS EXPECTED WITH MINIMUM OF
INSTBY. THE VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN LOW CLOUDS...AND EXPECT
ENUF HEATING TO RESULT IN 1500 J/KG OR SO OF SBCAPE BY EARLY AFTN
ACRS THE PIEDMONT. SHEAR WILL BE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS OVERLAPPED WITH THE INSTBY. AS
EXPECTED...THE CAMS SHOW SOME ROBUST-LOOKING DISCRETE CELLS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CAROLINAS. SO I EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND EASTERN UPSTATE THIS AFTN. THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LIMITED COVERAGE OF MAINLY
SHOWERS...GIVEN LESS INSTBY. POPS WERE TWEAKED REFLECTING THE TRENDS
IN THE CAMS. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT VORT LOBE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROF AXIS AND CROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
EAST OF THE AREA. SO POPS WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN BORDER WITHIN NWLY
FLOW. MIN TEMPS WILL STILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL BE THE BIG COOL DOWN COURTESY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. NOT EXACTLY BLACKBERRY WINTER...AS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
LOW TEMPS WILL GET ANYWHERE NEAR RECORDS...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL
NONETHELESS. WE BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN A RELATIVE LULL AS A
DRY SLOT CROSSES THE FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL VORT LOBE.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR PRECIP
TO DEVELOP...SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE BROUGHT DOWN BELOW 15 PCT THRU
MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
BRINGING THE MAIN VORT CENTER DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY SO PRECIP CHANCES GO UP
FROM THERE. THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT CENTER ACROSS THE FCST AREA
SHOULD FORCE SHOWERS TO BREACH THE MTNS AND MOVE OUT E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE VORT PASSES...PRECIP
PRODUCTION SHOULD SCALE BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN BORDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AND RESULT IN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD
BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WET BULB ZERO AROUND 5K FEET...SO SMALL HAIL WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE GROUND IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN
BORDER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE ANY FROST...AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENUF FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS SLOWLY AWAY ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCE IS WARRANTED
OVER THE NRN MTNS...AND PERHAPS E OF I-77 CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GT LAKES
AND ERN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND MIGHT BE A BIT DEEPER THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND IN RESPONSE THE MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHES A
SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER S INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NRN
ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH IS HARDLY COMPELLING ENOUGH TO
CHANGE AN ONGOING DRY FCST. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT OUR
WEATHER MIGHT NOT BE QUITE AS FAIR LATE IN THE PERIOD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OVERALL...JUST
SOME TWEAKS TO PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SWD TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE...WE MIGHT NOT BE SEEING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CURRENTLY
CARRIED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCLT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A RESPITE FROM 6AM UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.  SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS.  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEAST PROGRESS
DURING THE DAY...PASSING KCLT BY 8PM.  AS FRONT EXITS THE
AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECLINE.

ELSEWHERE...AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY FROM KAND TO KCLT WITH TRW
AROUND KCLT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.  KAVL AND KHKY ARE CURRENTLY FREE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE MORE BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY
IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW TO NE JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.  BOUNDARY WILL MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG IT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOLLOWING FROPA...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO 15KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS FOG OVERNIGHT THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND I HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%
KAVL       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     LOW   52%
KHKY       MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%
KAND       HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT/WJM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 031003
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL USHER
IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545AM TUESDAY MORNING...UPPER CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCED
TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY STUCK OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
ADVANCE AS WELL BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AND
EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING.  WINDS WITH THE FROPA VEER FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.  FROPA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOME
INCREASE IN WINDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE ADVECTION OF DRYER AND
MORE STABLE AIR.  THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE NATURE AND
SEVERITY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONT.  CURRENTLY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
GENERALLY PERSIST IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  CAPE IMPROVES
DIURNALLY BUT WILL BE HIGHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DUE TO A REDUCTION IN MOIST ADVECTION AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG NEAR THE FRONT AS UPPER WAVE
IMPROVES FLOW...WITH BULK SHEAR PROGGED AT 40 TO 60 KTS ALONG FRONT.

CURRENT SHORT TERM MODELS...AND THE CAMS IN PARTICULAR...SUPPORT THE
IDEA THAT THE BEST OVERLAY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL PRIMARILY
INVOLVE ONLY THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM 19Z...EXITING THE CWA BY
23Z.  VEERED SURFACE WINDS AND REDUCED INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT
WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO MOSTLY WIND GUSTS.  SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE TN
BORDER...BUT PRECIP CHANCES DROP DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL BE THE BIG COOL DOWN COURTESY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. NOT EXACTLY BLACKBERRY WINTER...AS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
LOW TEMPS WILL GET ANYWHERE NEAR RECORDS...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL
NONETHELESS. WE BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN A RELATIVE LULL AS A
DRY SLOT CROSSES THE FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL VORT LOBE.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR PRECIP
TO DEVELOP...SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE BROUGHT DOWN BELOW 15 PCT THRU
MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
BRINGING THE MAIN VORT CENTER DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY SO PRECIP CHANCES GO UP
FROM THERE. THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT CENTER ACROSS THE FCST AREA
SHOULD FORCE SHOWERS TO BREACH THE MTNS AND MOVE OUT E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE VORT PASSES...PRECIP
PRODUCTION SHOULD SCALE BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN BORDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AND RESULT IN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD
BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WET BULB ZERO AROUND 5K FEET...SO SMALL HAIL WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE GROUND IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN
BORDER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE ANY FROST...AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENUF FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS SLOWLY AWAY ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCE IS WARRANTED
OVER THE NRN MTNS...AND PERHAPS E OF I-77 CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GT LAKES
AND ERN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND MIGHT BE A BIT DEEPER THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND IN RESPONSE THE MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHES A
SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER S INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NRN
ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH IS HARDLY COMPELLING ENOUGH TO
CHANGE AN ONGOING DRY FCST. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT OUR
WEATHER MIGHT NOT BE QUITE AS FAIR LATE IN THE PERIOD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OVERALL...JUST
SOME TWEAKS TO PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SWD TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE...WE MIGHT NOT BE SEEING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CURRENTLY
CARRIED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCLT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A RESPITE FROM 6AM UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.  SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS.  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEAST PROGRESS
DURING THE DAY...PASSING KCLT BY 8PM.  AS FRONT EXITS THE
AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECLINE.

ELSEWHERE...AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY FROM KAND TO KCLT WITH TRW
AROUND KCLT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.  KAVL AND KHKY ARE CURRENTLY FREE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE MORE BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY
IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW TO NE JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.  BOUNDARY WILL MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG IT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOLLOWING FROPA...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO 15KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS FOG OVERNIGHT THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND I HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%
KGSP       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%
KAVL       MED   67%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     LOW   39%
KHKY       MED   61%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%
KGMU       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%
KAND       MED   72%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT/WJM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 030717
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
317 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL USHER
IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315AM TUESDAY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA.  THERE WAS SOME CONCERN ABOUT POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING OF STORMS...HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE MADE
ENOUGH SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS TO AVOID TRAINING.  MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXIST OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA.
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3S OF THE
CWA.  ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
ORIENTED SW-NE SOUTHEAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE DAY...EXITING THE CWA
TUESDAY EVENING.  CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECLINE RAPIDLY BEHIND
THE FRONT.  WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST AND MAY REACH 15 TO 20 KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

COLD FRONT IS AHEAD OF A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH.  AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES...MID LEVEL FLOW IMPROVES GIVING INCREASED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT OF 50 TO 55 KTS.  THIS
COMBINES WITH LI TO -6 AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS WITH FROPA THIS AFTERNOON.  VEERED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARGUE AGAINST STRONG SUPERCELLS...WITH SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND FLASH FLOODING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL BE THE BIG COOL DOWN COURTESY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. NOT EXACTLY BLACKBERRY WINTER...AS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
LOW TEMPS WILL GET ANYWHERE NEAR RECORDS...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL
NONETHELESS. WE BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN A RELATIVE LULL AS A
DRY SLOT CROSSES THE FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL VORT LOBE.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR PRECIP
TO DEVELOP...SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE BROUGHT DOWN BELOW 15 PCT THRU
MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
BRINGING THE MAIN VORT CENTER DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY SO PRECIP CHANCES GO UP
FROM THERE. THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT CENTER ACROSS THE FCST AREA
SHOULD FORCE SHOWERS TO BREACH THE MTNS AND MOVE OUT E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE VORT PASSES...PRECIP
PRODUCTION SHOULD SCALE BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN BORDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AND RESULT IN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD
BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WET BULB ZERO AROUND 5K FEET...SO SMALL HAIL WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE GROUND IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN
BORDER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE ANY FROST...AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENUF FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS SLOWLY AWAY ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCE IS WARRANTED
OVER THE NRN MTNS...AND PERHAPS E OF I-77 CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GT LAKES
AND ERN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND MIGHT BE A BIT DEEPER THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND IN RESPONSE THE MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHES A
SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER S INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NRN
ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH IS HARDLY COMPELLING ENOUGH TO
CHANGE AN ONGOING DRY FCST. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT OUR
WEATHER MIGHT NOT BE QUITE AS FAIR LATE IN THE PERIOD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OVERALL...JUST
SOME TWEAKS TO PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SWD TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE...WE MIGHT NOT BE SEEING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CURRENTLY
CARRIED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCLT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A RESPITE FROM 6AM UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.  SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS.  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEAST PROGRESS
DURING THE DAY...PASSING KCLT BY 8PM.  AS FRONT EXITS THE
AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECLINE.

ELSEWHERE...AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY FROM KAND TO KCLT WITH TRW
AROUND KCLT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.  KAVL AND KHKY ARE CURRENTLY FREE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE MORE BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY
IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW TO NE JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.  BOUNDARY WILL MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG IT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOLLOWING FROPA...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO 15KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS FOG OVERNIGHT THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND I HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  82%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       MED   62%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%
KHKY       MED   61%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH  92%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KAND       HIGH  86%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT/WJM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 030615
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL USHER
IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FROM CANADA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200AM TUESDAY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA.  THERE WAS SOME CONCERN ABOUT POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING OF STORMS...HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE MADE
ENOUGH SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS TO AVOID TRAINING.  MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXIST OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA.
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3S OF THE
CWA.  ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
ORIENTED SW-NE SOUTHEAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE DAY...EXITING THE CWA
TUESDAY EVENING.  CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECLINE RAPIDLY BEHIND
THE FRONT.  WITH FROPA...WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST AND MAY REACH 15 TO 20 KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

COLD FRONT IS AHEAD OF A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH.  AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES...MID LEVEL FLOW IMPROVES GIVING INCREASED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT OF 50 TO 55 KTS.  THIS
COMBINES WITH LI TO -6 AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS WITH FROPA THIS AFTERNOON.  VEERED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARGUE AGAINST STRONG SUPERCELLS...WITH SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND FLASH FLOODING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL BE THE BIG COOL DOWN COURTESY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. NOT EXACTLY BLACKBERRY WINTER...AS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
LOW TEMPS WILL GET ANYWHERE NEAR RECORDS...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL
NONETHELESS. WE BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN A RELATIVE LULL AS A
DRY SLOT CROSSES THE FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL VORT LOBE.
THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR PRECIP
TO DEVELOP...SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE BROUGHT DOWN BELOW 15 PCT THRU
MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
BRINGING THE MAIN VORT CENTER DOWN FROM THE NW AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY SO PRECIP CHANCES GO UP
FROM THERE. THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT CENTER ACROSS THE FCST AREA
SHOULD FORCE SHOWERS TO BREACH THE MTNS AND MOVE OUT E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE VORT PASSES...PRECIP
PRODUCTION SHOULD SCALE BACK TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN BORDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AND RESULT IN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD
BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WET BULB ZERO AROUND 5K FEET...SO SMALL HAIL WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE GROUND IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE TN
BORDER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE ANY FROST...AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENUF FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS SLOWLY AWAY ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCE IS WARRANTED
OVER THE NRN MTNS...AND PERHAPS E OF I-77 CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
DEPART THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY. HEIGHTS WILL THEN BUILD FROM
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL
SETTLE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCLT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A RESPITE FROM 6AM UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.  SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS.  THIS FRONT WILL MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEAST PROGRESS
DURING THE DAY...PASSING KCLT BY 8PM.  AS FRONT EXITS THE
AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECLINE.

ELSEWHERE...AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY FROM KAND TO KCLT WITH TRW
AROUND KCLT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.  KAVL AND KHKY ARE CURRENTLY FREE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE MORE BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY
IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW TO NE JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.  BOUNDARY WILL MAKE GRADUAL SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG IT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOLLOWING FROPA...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO 15KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS FOG OVERNIGHT THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND I HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  82%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       LOW   58%     MED   75%     HIGH  99%     MED   75%
KHKY       MED   63%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH  90%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT/WJM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 030206
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1006 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FROM CANADA
THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0210 UTC UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJOURNMENTS WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE
LATEST ADJMAV DATA...PRESERVING GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED UP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
PER RADAR TRENDS.

0100 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE RAISED IN THE WEST BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

2315 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS ADJUSTED ONCE AGAIN PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE LATEST NAM DATA...
PRESERVING GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE UPDATED
PER RADAR TRENDS.

2100 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPS AND QPF WERE RAISED IN THE PIEDMONT PER RADAR TRENDS.

AS OF 150 PM...AS EXPECTED...THE REGION IS SEEING CONVECTION POPPING
UP ON RADAR IMAGERY...AS SBCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 1500-2500 J/KG AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE BEEN MADE. FORCING IS STILL SUBTLE
OVERALL...BUT WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTN AND EVENING PROGRESSES. THE
RAP SHOWS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS...WITH 30-40 KTS ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. IN THAT AREA...THE SHEAR AND INSTBY WILL COMBINE
FOR A BETTER SEVERE STORM THREAT...WITH SUPERCELL-LIKE STORMS
POSSIBLE. SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM
BUNCOMBE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTBY...EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AS WELL.

THIS EVENING...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE NC MTNS FROM THE WEST...WHILE AN AREA OF DECENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITHIN A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET
STREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING ELCAPE OF 800-1500 J/KG
WITH IMPROVING SHEAR. CAMS AREA ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAXIMUM
OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING. SO POPS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM 0-6Z...THEN START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THRU DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT EAST...BUT
PERIODS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DPVA WILL CONTINUE AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE MORNING...AND
LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-85. BULK SHEAR LOOKS
BETTER THAN MONDAY...BUT THE BETTER CAPE WILL BE TO THE EAST AS DRY
AIR STARTS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. A DAY 2 MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS
JUST TO OUR EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE A
DEPARTING SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...BUT LIKELY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION. THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WED
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES UNDER THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...WITH LESSER CHANCES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN DRIER AIR AND
LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE DEEP LAYER NW FLOW UNDER THE PASSING
TROUGH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN
BORDER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM OUT NEAR FREEZING BY 12Z ON
THURSDAY...BUT MODEL PROFILES OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN HAVE A SURFACE
WARM LAYER TO KEEP MINS IN THE MID 30S WITH MAINLY RAIN.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON THURSDAY. MINS WILL BE A CATEGORY BELOW
CLIMO...WITH THU AFTERNOON MAXES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN THE
COOLER AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
DEPART THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY. HEIGHTS WILL THEN BUILD FROM
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL
SETTLE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SSW...WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT...WITH
THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING AS WELL. GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY ON
OVERNIGHT CEILINGS...AND FOR NOW HAVE FAVORED A BLENDS THAT LOWERS
CIGS TO IFR AROUND DAWN. GUIDANCE FAVORS VFR VISIBILITY
OVERNIGHT...FALLING TO PERHAPS 6SM BEFORE DAWN.


ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
FRONT...DECREASING SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SSW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...VEERING NW AT KAVL BEFORE DAWN. GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
GUIDANCE VARIED CONSIDERABLY ON OVERNIGHT CEILINGS...WITH A BLEND
FAVORING LOW VFR IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND MVFR AT KAVL. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE FAVORED BEFORE DAWN EVERYWHERE BUT KGSP AND
KGMU...WITH IFR AT KHKY...AND MVFR AT KAVL AND KAND. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  96%     MED   73%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     MED   79%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  93%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  90%
KAND       HIGH  98%     HIGH  96%     MED   77%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 030050
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
850 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FROM CANADA
THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0100 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE RAISED IN THE WEST BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

2315 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS ADJUSTED ONCE AGAIN PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE LATEST NAM DATA...
PRESERVING GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE UPDATED
PER RADAR TRENDS.

2100 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPS AND QPF WERE RAISED IN THE PIEDMONT PER RADAR TRENDS.

AS OF 150 PM...AS EXPECTED...THE REGION IS SEEING CONVECTION POPPING
UP ON RADAR IMAGERY...AS SBCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 1500-2500 J/KG AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE BEEN MADE. FORCING IS STILL SUBTLE
OVERALL...BUT WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTN AND EVENING PROGRESSES. THE
RAP SHOWS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS...WITH 30-40 KTS ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. IN THAT AREA...THE SHEAR AND INSTBY WILL COMBINE
FOR A BETTER SEVERE STORM THREAT...WITH SUPERCELL-LIKE STORMS
POSSIBLE. SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM
BUNCOMBE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTBY...EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AS WELL.

THIS EVENING...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE NC MTNS FROM THE WEST...WHILE AN AREA OF DECENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITHIN A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET
STREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING ELCAPE OF 800-1500 J/KG
WITH IMPROVING SHEAR. CAMS AREA ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAXIMUM
OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING. SO POPS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM 0-6Z...THEN START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THRU DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT EAST...BUT
PERIODS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DPVA WILL CONTINUE AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE MORNING...AND
LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-85. BULK SHEAR LOOKS
BETTER THAN MONDAY...BUT THE BETTER CAPE WILL BE TO THE EAST AS DRY
AIR STARTS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. A DAY 2 MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS
JUST TO OUR EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE A
DEPARTING SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...BUT LIKELY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION. THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WED
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES UNDER THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...WITH LESSER CHANCES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN DRIER AIR AND
LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE DEEP LAYER NW FLOW UNDER THE PASSING
TROUGH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN
BORDER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM OUT NEAR FREEZING BY 12Z ON
THURSDAY...BUT MODEL PROFILES OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN HAVE A SURFACE
WARM LAYER TO KEEP MINS IN THE MID 30S WITH MAINLY RAIN.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON THURSDAY. MINS WILL BE A CATEGORY BELOW
CLIMO...WITH THU AFTERNOON MAXES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN THE
COOLER AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
DEPART THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY. HEIGHTS WILL THEN BUILD FROM
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL
SETTLE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SSW...WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT...WITH
THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING AS WELL. GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY ON
OVERNIGHT CEILINGS...AND FOR NOW HAVE FAVORED A BLENDS THAT LOWERS
CIGS TO IFR AROUND DAWN. GUIDANCE FAVORS VFR VISIBILITY
OVERNIGHT...FALLING TO PERHAPS 6SM BEFORE DAWN.


ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
FRONT...DECREASING SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SSW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...VEERING NW AT KAVL BEFORE DAWN. GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
GUIDANCE VARIED CONSIDERABLY ON OVERNIGHT CEILINGS...WITH A BLEND
FAVORING LOW VFR IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND MVFR AT KAVL. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE FAVORED BEFORE DAWN EVERYWHERE BUT KGSP AND
KGMU...WITH IFR AT KHKY...AND MVFR AT KAVL AND KAND. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     MED   67%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  83%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  96%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH  98%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  93%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 030050
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
850 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FROM CANADA
THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0100 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE RAISED IN THE WEST BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

2315 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS ADJUSTED ONCE AGAIN PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE LATEST NAM DATA...
PRESERVING GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE UPDATED
PER RADAR TRENDS.

2100 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPS AND QPF WERE RAISED IN THE PIEDMONT PER RADAR TRENDS.

AS OF 150 PM...AS EXPECTED...THE REGION IS SEEING CONVECTION POPPING
UP ON RADAR IMAGERY...AS SBCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 1500-2500 J/KG AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE BEEN MADE. FORCING IS STILL SUBTLE
OVERALL...BUT WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTN AND EVENING PROGRESSES. THE
RAP SHOWS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS...WITH 30-40 KTS ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. IN THAT AREA...THE SHEAR AND INSTBY WILL COMBINE
FOR A BETTER SEVERE STORM THREAT...WITH SUPERCELL-LIKE STORMS
POSSIBLE. SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM
BUNCOMBE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTBY...EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AS WELL.

THIS EVENING...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE NC MTNS FROM THE WEST...WHILE AN AREA OF DECENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITHIN A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET
STREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING ELCAPE OF 800-1500 J/KG
WITH IMPROVING SHEAR. CAMS AREA ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAXIMUM
OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING. SO POPS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM 0-6Z...THEN START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THRU DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT EAST...BUT
PERIODS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DPVA WILL CONTINUE AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE MORNING...AND
LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-85. BULK SHEAR LOOKS
BETTER THAN MONDAY...BUT THE BETTER CAPE WILL BE TO THE EAST AS DRY
AIR STARTS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. A DAY 2 MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS
JUST TO OUR EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE A
DEPARTING SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...BUT LIKELY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION. THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WED
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES UNDER THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...WITH LESSER CHANCES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN DRIER AIR AND
LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE DEEP LAYER NW FLOW UNDER THE PASSING
TROUGH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN
BORDER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM OUT NEAR FREEZING BY 12Z ON
THURSDAY...BUT MODEL PROFILES OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN HAVE A SURFACE
WARM LAYER TO KEEP MINS IN THE MID 30S WITH MAINLY RAIN.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON THURSDAY. MINS WILL BE A CATEGORY BELOW
CLIMO...WITH THU AFTERNOON MAXES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN THE
COOLER AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
DEPART THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY. HEIGHTS WILL THEN BUILD FROM
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL
SETTLE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SSW...WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT...WITH
THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING AS WELL. GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY ON
OVERNIGHT CEILINGS...AND FOR NOW HAVE FAVORED A BLENDS THAT LOWERS
CIGS TO IFR AROUND DAWN. GUIDANCE FAVORS VFR VISIBILITY
OVERNIGHT...FALLING TO PERHAPS 6SM BEFORE DAWN.


ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
FRONT...DECREASING SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SSW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...VEERING NW AT KAVL BEFORE DAWN. GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
GUIDANCE VARIED CONSIDERABLY ON OVERNIGHT CEILINGS...WITH A BLEND
FAVORING LOW VFR IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND MVFR AT KAVL. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE FAVORED BEFORE DAWN EVERYWHERE BUT KGSP AND
KGMU...WITH IFR AT KHKY...AND MVFR AT KAVL AND KAND. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     MED   67%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  83%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  96%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH  98%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  93%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 022317
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
717 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FROM CANADA
THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2315 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS ADJUSTED ONCE AGAIN PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE LATEST NAM DATA...
PRESERVING GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE UPDATED
PER RADAR TRENDS.

2100 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPS AND QPF WERE RAISED IN THE PIEDMONT PER RADAR TRENDS.

AS OF 150 PM...AS EXPECTED...THE REGION IS SEEING CONVECTION POPPING
UP ON RADAR IMAGERY...AS SBCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 1500-2500 J/KG AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE BEEN MADE. FORCING IS STILL SUBTLE
OVERALL...BUT WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTN AND EVENING PROGRESSES. THE
RAP SHOWS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS...WITH 30-40 KTS ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. IN THAT AREA...THE SHEAR AND INSTBY WILL COMBINE
FOR A BETTER SEVERE STORM THREAT...WITH SUPERCELL-LIKE STORMS
POSSIBLE. SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM
BUNCOMBE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTBY...EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AS WELL.

THIS EVENING...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE NC MTNS FROM THE WEST...WHILE AN AREA OF DECENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITHIN A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET
STREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING ELCAPE OF 800-1500 J/KG
WITH IMPROVING SHEAR. CAMS AREA ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAXIMUM
OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING. SO POPS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM 0-6Z...THEN START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THRU DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT EAST...BUT
PERIODS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DPVA WILL CONTINUE AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE MORNING...AND
LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-85. BULK SHEAR LOOKS
BETTER THAN MONDAY...BUT THE BETTER CAPE WILL BE TO THE EAST AS DRY
AIR STARTS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. A DAY 2 MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS
JUST TO OUR EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE A
DEPARTING SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...BUT LIKELY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION. THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WED
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES UNDER THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...WITH LESSER CHANCES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN DRIER AIR AND
LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE DEEP LAYER NW FLOW UNDER THE PASSING
TROUGH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN
BORDER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM OUT NEAR FREEZING BY 12Z ON
THURSDAY...BUT MODEL PROFILES OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN HAVE A SURFACE
WARM LAYER TO KEEP MINS IN THE MID 30S WITH MAINLY RAIN.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON THURSDAY. MINS WILL BE A CATEGORY BELOW
CLIMO...WITH THU AFTERNOON MAXES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN THE
COOLER AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
DEPART THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY. HEIGHTS WILL THEN BUILD FROM
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL
SETTLE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SSW...WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT...WITH
THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING AS WELL. GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY ON
OVERNIGHT CEILINGS...AND FOR NOW HAVE FAVORED A BLENDS THAT LOWERS
CIGS TO IFR AROUND DAWN. GUIDANCE FAVORS VFR VISIBILITY
OVERNIGHT...FALLING TO PERHAPS 6SM BEFORE DAWN.


ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
FRONT...DECREASING SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SSW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...VEERING NW AT KAVL BEFORE DAWN. GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
GUIDANCE VARIED CONSIDERABLY ON OVERNIGHT CEILINGS...WITH A BLEND
FAVORING LOW VFR IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND MVFR AT KAVL. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE FAVORED BEFORE DAWN EVERYWHERE BUT KGSP AND
KGMU...WITH IFR AT KHKY...AND MVFR AT KAVL AND KAND. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 021852
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FROM CANADA
THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM...AS EXPECTED...THE REGION IS SEEING CONVECTION POPPING
UP ON RADAR IMAGERY...AS SBCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 1500-2500 J/KG AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE BEEN MADE. FORCING IS STILL SUBTLE
OVERALL...BUT WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTN AND EVENING PROGRESSES. THE
RAP SHOWS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS...WITH 30-40 KTS ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. IN THAT AREA...THE SHEAR AND INSTBY WILL COMBINE
FOR A BETTER SEVERE STORM THREAT...WITH SUPERCELL-LIKE STORMS
POSSIBLE. SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM
BUNCOMBE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTBY...EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AS WELL.

THIS EVENING...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE NC MTNS FROM THE WEST...WHILE AN AREA OF DECENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITHIN A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET
STREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING ELCAPE OF 800-1500 J/KG
WITH IMPROVING SHEAR. CAMS AREA ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAXIMUM
OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING. SO POPS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM 0-6Z...THEN START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THRU DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT EAST...BUT
PERIODS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DPVA WILL CONTINUE AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE MORNING...AND
LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-85. BULK SHEAR LOOKS
BETTER THAN MONDAY...BUT THE BETTER CAPE WILL BE TO THE EAST AS DRY
AIR STARTS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. A DAY 2 MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS
JUST TO OUR EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE A
DEPARTING SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...BUT LIKELY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION. THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WED
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES UNDER THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...WITH LESSER CHANCES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN DRIER AIR AND
LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE DEEP LAYER NW FLOW UNDER THE PASSING
TROUGH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN
BORDER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM OUT NEAR FREEZING BY 12Z ON
THURSDAY...BUT MODEL PROFILES OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN HAVE A SURFACE
WARM LAYER TO KEEP MINS IN THE MID 30S WITH MAINLY RAIN.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON THURSDAY. MINS WILL BE A CATEGORY BELOW
CLIMO...WITH THU AFTERNOON MAXES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN THE
COOLER AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
DEPART THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY. HEIGHTS WILL THEN BUILD FROM
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL
SETTLE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP RAPIDLY THIS
AFTN...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN
THE SHOTGUN APPEARANCE ON RADAR...TIMING WHEN CELLS WILL IMPACT
STILL TOO UNCERTAIN...SO WILL GO WITH FOUR HOUR TEMPO FROM 18-22Z.
THE INSTBY IS FAIRLY ROBUST...SO GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL THREAT WILL
EXIST WITH THE AFTN ACTIVITY. LATER THIS EVENING...STORMS FROM THE
WEST ARE EXPECT TO CROSS THE AREA...AS MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION WELL PASSED SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE THE PREVAILING
TSRA WITH LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF IN THE 6-9Z TIME FRAME. LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SW DIRECTION THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT MAINLY
GUSTS WILL BE WITH CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE. HAVE VCTS AND/OR TEMPO FOR TSRA
THIS AFTN...AS RADAR ECHOES ARE BLOSSOMING QUICKLY. MORE STORMS WILL
ENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...WITH MOISTURE AND
FORCING SUPPORTING CONVECTION WELL PAST SUNSET. PREVAILING TSRA AND
PROB30 FOR TS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL FAVOR A S TO
SW DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SWITCHING TO NW AROUND 6Z AT
KAVL AS A FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GET HUNG UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THRU 18Z TUESDAY. AS FOR FOG AND/OR
STRATUS...GUIDANCE IS MIXED...BUT I EXPECT THAT IF WE GET WIDESPREAD
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND SOME CLEARING OF MID CLOUDS AND PRECIP ENDS
BEFORE DAYBREAK...MAY SEE MORE IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS. WILL GO
WITH MVFR FOR NOW. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...AFTN SHRA/TSRA EXPECT AGAIN TUESDAY...BUT MOSTLY EAST OF
THE MTNS. DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   71%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     MED   75%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     MED   70%     HIGH  84%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   62%     HIGH  86%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 021823
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FROM CANADA
THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM...AS EXPECTED...THE REGION IS SEEING CONVECTION
POPPING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY...AS SBCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 1500-2500
J/KG AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE BEEN MADE. FORCING IS STILL SUBTLE
OVERALL...BUT WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTN AND EVENING PROGRESSES.
THE RAP SHOWS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS...WITH 30-40 KTS
ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. IN THAT AREA...THE SHEAR AND INSTBY WILL
COMBINE FOR A BETTER SEVERE STORM THREAT...WITH SUPERCELL-LIKE
STORMS POSSIBLE. SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FROM BUNCOMBE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. TO
THE SOUTH...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTBY...EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AS WELL.

THIS EVENING...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE NC MTNS FROM THE WEST...WHILE AN AREA OF DECENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITHIN A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET
STREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING ELCAPE OF 800-1500 J/KG
WITH IMPROVING SHEAR. CAMS AREA ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAXIMUM
OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING. SO POPS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM 0-6Z...THEN START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THRU DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT EAST...BUT
PERIODS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DPVA WILL CONTINUE AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE MORNING...AND
LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-85. BULK SHEAR LOOKS
BETTER THAN MONDAY...BUT THE BETTER CAPE WILL BE TO THE EAST AS DRY
AIR STARTS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. A DAY 2 MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS
JUST TO OUR EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST HOLDS A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO OUR
RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME. ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE WAVE SHOULD
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH COMBINED
WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROF SHOULD HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER FORCING WILL BE WEAK
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY COMES AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE
WESTERLY...WHICH DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
COVERAGE. WE MAY BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE BUT
WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...PRECIP
PROB DIMINISHES AND MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE FCST REFLECTS THIS
DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE TO OUR EAST. IN SPITE OF THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH...THIS MID/UPPER SYSTEM HAS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE...THUS PRECIP CHANCES WERE CUT BACK IN MOST
PLACES. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LINGERING CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
IN THE EVENING...BUT THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A SMALL CHANCE ONLY
NEAR THE TN BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVE LULL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT WAVE
AND THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY...ACCOUNTING
FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE TN BORDER. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD BREAK CONTAINMENT AND MOVE OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
THE EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT CENTER. IN ITS
WAKE...PRECIP CHANCES TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...WITH A COOL-DOWN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INITIAL
WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK
WILL BE THE BIG COOL-DOWN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE
MODELS HAVE A COOLER TREND FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SO ABOUT A
CATEGORY WAS CUT OFF...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO SOMETHING ON
THE ORDER OF TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND
OUTWARD FROM THE TN BORDER DURING THE DAY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...PERHAPS LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE TN BORDER RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
THE COLDEST AIR AT MID LEVELS DRIFTING OVERHEAD EARLY THURSDAY...
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6K FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTERN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD SPELL DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY RETURNING TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP RAPIDLY THIS
AFTN...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN
THE SHOTGUN APPEARANCE ON RADAR...TIMING WHEN CELLS WILL IMPACT
STILL TOO UNCERTAIN...SO WILL GO WITH FOUR HOUR TEMPO FROM 18-22Z.
THE INSTBY IS FAIRLY ROBUST...SO GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL THREAT WILL
EXIST WITH THE AFTN ACTIVITY. LATER THIS EVENING...STORMS FROM THE
WEST ARE EXPECT TO CROSS THE AREA...AS MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION WELL PASSED SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE THE PREVAILING
TSRA WITH LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF IN THE 6-9Z TIME FRAME. LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SW DIRECTION THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT MAINLY
GUSTS WILL BE WITH CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE. HAVE VCTS AND/OR TEMPO FOR TSRA
THIS AFTN...AS RADAR ECHOES ARE BLOSSOMING QUICKLY. MORE STORMS WILL
ENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...WITH MOISTURE AND
FORCING SUPPORTING CONVECTION WELL PAST SUNSET. PREVAILING TSRA AND
PROB30 FOR TS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL FAVOR A S TO
SW DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SWITCHING TO NW AROUND 6Z AT
KAVL AS A FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GET HUNG UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THRU 18Z TUESDAY. AS FOR FOG AND/OR
STRATUS...GUIDANCE IS MIXED...BUT I EXPECT THAT IF WE GET WIDESPREAD
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND SOME CLEARING OF MID CLOUDS AND PRECIP ENDS
BEFORE DAYBREAK...MAY SEE MORE IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS. WILL GO
WITH MVFR FOR NOW. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...AFTN SHRA/TSRA EXPECT AGAIN TUESDAY...BUT MOSTLY EAST OF
THE MTNS. DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   71%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     MED   75%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     MED   70%     HIGH  84%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   62%     HIGH  86%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 021432
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1032 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS FROM CANADA THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...A STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION TODAY. THERE IS ALREADY PLENTY OF ONGOING CONVECTION
WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALL REGION TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 12Z ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...AND SHOULD TRIGGER NEW CONVECTION WITH HEATING THIS AFTN.
IN FACT...THE LATEST LAPS CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1500-2000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ACROSS THE ENTIRE PIEDMONT. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NW...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 20-30 KTS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WITH BETTER SHEAR JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
STILL...WITH DECENT INSTBY AND MARGINAL SHEAR WITH IMPROVING UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET...I EXPECT
SOLID COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH HAIL LIKELY THE BIGGEST THREAT...ESP FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE AND EAST ACRS NC. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO
EXIST. POPS WERE TWEAKED...BUT OVERALL LINE UP WITH THIS THINKING.
THE LATEST CAMS SHOW CONVECTION BUBBLING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THRU
TONIGHT...WITH ROUNDS OF BETTER COVERAGE STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...THEN ACRS THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE NC PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...AND
FINALLY ACTIVITY ENTERING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST HOLDS A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO OUR
RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME. ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE WAVE SHOULD
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH COMBINED
WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROF SHOULD HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER FORCING WILL BE WEAK
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY COMES AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE
WESTERLY...WHICH DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
COVERAGE. WE MAY BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE BUT
WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...PRECIP
PROB DIMINISHES AND MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE FCST REFLECTS THIS
DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE TO OUR EAST. IN SPITE OF THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH...THIS MID/UPPER SYSTEM HAS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE...THUS PRECIP CHANCES WERE CUT BACK IN MOST
PLACES. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LINGERING CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
IN THE EVENING...BUT THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A SMALL CHANCE ONLY
NEAR THE TN BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVE LULL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT WAVE
AND THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY...ACCOUNTING
FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE TN BORDER. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD BREAK CONTAINMENT AND MOVE OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
THE EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT CENTER. IN ITS
WAKE...PRECIP CHANCES TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...WITH A COOL-DOWN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INITIAL
WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK
WILL BE THE BIG COOL-DOWN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE
MODELS HAVE A COOLER TREND FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SO ABOUT A
CATEGORY WAS CUT OFF...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO SOMETHING ON
THE ORDER OF TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND
OUTWARD FROM THE TN BORDER DURING THE DAY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...PERHAPS LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE TN BORDER RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
THE COLDEST AIR AT MID LEVELS DRIFTING OVERHEAD EARLY THURSDAY...
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6K FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTERN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD SPELL DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY RETURNING TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHORTLY LEAVE THE AREA.
FURTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY BEFORE THEN.  MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND OF AROUND
10KT.  SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND
SHOWER/AFTERNOON THUNDER ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY.  CLOUDS MAY HAVE
CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING...THOUGH
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NIGHT.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10KT.
WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND RECENT RAINS...SOME LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES PRONE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     MED   71%     LOW   0%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     MED   63%     LOW   0%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     LOW   0%
KHKY       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     MED   68%     LOW   0%
KGMU       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     MED   67%     LOW   0%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH  91%     MED   65%     LOW   0%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/WJM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WJM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 021011
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
611 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS FROM CANADA THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6AM MONDAY MORNING...AREA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY CLEAR OF
PRECIP...WITH ONLY SOME VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY.  PRECIP COVERAGE IS
WELL BELOW THAT PREDICTED BY SHORT-TERM MODELS...THOUGH MORE SHOWERS
SEEM LIKELY AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DYNAMICAL FEATURES UPSTREAM.

PER CAM MODEL GUIDANCE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
REDEVELOPMENT/INITIATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 18Z...WITH ACTIVITY
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...IN AN ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO THE LAST
2 DAYS WITH CAPE A LITTLE HIGHER TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. CURRENT
PATTERN OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
MAINTAINING BL MOISTURE WITH FORCING FROM A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY...IMPROVING THE FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE CWA WITH BULK SHEAR IMPROVING TO 30 TO 40 KTS FROM 25 TO 35
SEEN ON SUNDAY.  SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL GIVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SVR WEATHER ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE UPPER FLOW
WILL BE BETTER.  LATEST STORM SCALE MODELS FOR TODAY DO NOT SHOW
PARTICULARLY STRONG SUPERCELL ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...AND THE MAIN
THREATS WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING FROM AREAS WITH TRAINING
STORMS...SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST HOLDS A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO OUR
RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME. ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE WAVE SHOULD
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH COMBINED
WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROF SHOULD HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER FORCING WILL BE WEAK
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY COMES AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE
WESTERLY...WHICH DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
COVERAGE. WE MAY BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE BUT
WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...PRECIP
PROB DIMINISHES AND MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE FCST REFLECTS THIS
DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE TO OUR EAST. IN SPITE OF THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH...THIS MID/UPPER SYSTEM HAS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE...THUS PRECIP CHANCES WERE CUT BACK IN MOST
PLACES. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LINGERING CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
IN THE EVENING...BUT THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A SMALL CHANCE ONLY
NEAR THE TN BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVE LULL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT WAVE
AND THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY...ACCOUNTING
FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE TN BORDER. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD BREAK CONTAINMENT AND MOVE OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
THE EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT CENTER. IN ITS
WAKE...PRECIP CHANCES TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...WITH A COOL-DOWN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INITIAL
WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK
WILL BE THE BIG COOL-DOWN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE
MODELS HAVE A COOLER TREND FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SO ABOUT A
CATEGORY WAS CUT OFF...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO SOMETHING ON
THE ORDER OF TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND
OUTWARD FROM THE TN BORDER DURING THE DAY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...PERHAPS LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE TN BORDER RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
THE COLDEST AIR AT MID LEVELS DRIFTING OVERHEAD EARLY THURSDAY...
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6K FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTERN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD SPELL DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY RETURNING TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHORTLY LEAVE THE AREA.
FURTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY BEFORE THEN.  MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND OF AROUND
10KT.  SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND
SHOWER/AFTERNOON THUNDER ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY.  CLOUDS MAY HAVE
CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING...THOUGH
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NIGHT.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10KT.
WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND RECENT RAINS...SOME LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES PRONE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     LOW   46%
KGSP       LOW   53%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   46%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   42%
KHKY       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%
KGMU       MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   46%
KAND       HIGH  89%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WJM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 021011
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
611 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS FROM CANADA THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6AM MONDAY MORNING...AREA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY CLEAR OF
PRECIP...WITH ONLY SOME VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY.  PRECIP COVERAGE IS
WELL BELOW THAT PREDICTED BY SHORT-TERM MODELS...THOUGH MORE SHOWERS
SEEM LIKELY AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DYNAMICAL FEATURES UPSTREAM.

PER CAM MODEL GUIDANCE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
REDEVELOPMENT/INITIATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 18Z...WITH ACTIVITY
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...IN AN ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO THE LAST
2 DAYS WITH CAPE A LITTLE HIGHER TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. CURRENT
PATTERN OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
MAINTAINING BL MOISTURE WITH FORCING FROM A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY...IMPROVING THE FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE CWA WITH BULK SHEAR IMPROVING TO 30 TO 40 KTS FROM 25 TO 35
SEEN ON SUNDAY.  SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL GIVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SVR WEATHER ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE UPPER FLOW
WILL BE BETTER.  LATEST STORM SCALE MODELS FOR TODAY DO NOT SHOW
PARTICULARLY STRONG SUPERCELL ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...AND THE MAIN
THREATS WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING FROM AREAS WITH TRAINING
STORMS...SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST HOLDS A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO OUR
RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME. ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE WAVE SHOULD
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH COMBINED
WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROF SHOULD HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER FORCING WILL BE WEAK
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY COMES AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE
WESTERLY...WHICH DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
COVERAGE. WE MAY BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE BUT
WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...PRECIP
PROB DIMINISHES AND MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE FCST REFLECTS THIS
DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE TO OUR EAST. IN SPITE OF THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH...THIS MID/UPPER SYSTEM HAS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE...THUS PRECIP CHANCES WERE CUT BACK IN MOST
PLACES. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LINGERING CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
IN THE EVENING...BUT THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A SMALL CHANCE ONLY
NEAR THE TN BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVE LULL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT WAVE
AND THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY...ACCOUNTING
FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE TN BORDER. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD BREAK CONTAINMENT AND MOVE OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
THE EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT CENTER. IN ITS
WAKE...PRECIP CHANCES TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...WITH A COOL-DOWN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INITIAL
WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK
WILL BE THE BIG COOL-DOWN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE
MODELS HAVE A COOLER TREND FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SO ABOUT A
CATEGORY WAS CUT OFF...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO SOMETHING ON
THE ORDER OF TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND
OUTWARD FROM THE TN BORDER DURING THE DAY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...PERHAPS LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE TN BORDER RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
THE COLDEST AIR AT MID LEVELS DRIFTING OVERHEAD EARLY THURSDAY...
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6K FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTERN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD SPELL DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY RETURNING TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHORTLY LEAVE THE AREA.
FURTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY BEFORE THEN.  MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND OF AROUND
10KT.  SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND
SHOWER/AFTERNOON THUNDER ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY.  CLOUDS MAY HAVE
CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING...THOUGH
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NIGHT.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10KT.
WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND RECENT RAINS...SOME LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES PRONE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     LOW   46%
KGSP       LOW   53%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   46%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   42%
KHKY       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%
KGMU       MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   46%
KAND       HIGH  89%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     LOW   50%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WJM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 020814
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS FROM CANADA THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY MORNING...AREA IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OF
PRECIP...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY ARISE OVERNIGHT.
PER CAM MODEL GUIDANCE...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
REDEVELOPMENT/INITIATION MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING...IN AN ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH
CAPE A LITTLE HIGHER TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. CURRENT PATTERN OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAINTAINING BL
MOISTURE WITH FORCING FROM A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY...IMPROVING THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA WITH BULK SHEAR IMPROVING TO 30 TO 40 KTS FROM 25 TO 35 SEEN ON
SUNDAY.  SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY WILL
GIVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SVR WEATHER ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE UPPER FLOW WILL BE BETTER.  LATEST
STORM SCALE MODELS FOR TODAY DO NOT SHOW PARTICULARLY STRONG
SUPERCELL ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...AND THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE FLASH
FLOODING FROM AREAS WITH TRAINING STORMS...SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS TOMORROW 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST HOLDS A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO OUR
RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME. ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE WAVE SHOULD
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH COMBINED
WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROF SHOULD HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER FORCING WILL BE WEAK
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY COMES AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE
WESTERLY...WHICH DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
COVERAGE. WE MAY BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE BUT
WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...PRECIP
PROB DIMINISHES AND MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE FCST REFLECTS THIS
DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE TO OUR EAST. IN SPITE OF THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH...THIS MID/UPPER SYSTEM HAS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE...THUS PRECIP CHANCES WERE CUT BACK IN MOST
PLACES. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LINGERING CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
IN THE EVENING...BUT THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A SMALL CHANCE ONLY
NEAR THE TN BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVE LULL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT WAVE
AND THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY...ACCOUNTING
FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE TN BORDER. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD BREAK CONTAINMENT AND MOVE OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
THE EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT CENTER. IN ITS
WAKE...PRECIP CHANCES TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...WITH A COOL-DOWN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INITIAL
WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK
WILL BE THE BIG COOL-DOWN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE
MODELS HAVE A COOLER TREND FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SO ABOUT A
CATEGORY WAS CUT OFF...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO SOMETHING ON
THE ORDER OF TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND
OUTWARD FROM THE TN BORDER DURING THE DAY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...PERHAPS LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE TN BORDER RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
THE COLDEST AIR AT MID LEVELS DRIFTING OVERHEAD EARLY THURSDAY...
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6K FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTERN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD SPELL DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY RETURNING TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHORTLY LEAVE THE AREA.
FURTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY BEFORE THEN.  MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND OF AROUND
10KT.  SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND
SHOWER/AFTERNOON THUNDER ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY.  CLOUDS MAY HAVE
CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING...THOUGH
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NIGHT.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10KT.
WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND RECENT RAINS...SOME LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES PRONE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       MED   72%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%
KHKY       MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%
KGMU       HIGH  86%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%
KAND       MED   75%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WJM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 020738
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS FROM CANADA THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY MORNING...AREA IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OF
PRECIP...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY ARISE OVERNIGHT.
PER CAM MODEL GUIDANCE...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
REDEVELOPMENT/INITIATION MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING...IN AN ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH
CAPE A LITTLE HIGHER TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. CURRENT PATTERN OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAINTAINING BL
MOISTURE WITH FORCING FROM A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY...IMPROVING THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA WITH BULK SHEAR IMPROVING TO 30 TO 40 KTS FROM 25 TO 35 SEEN ON
SUNDAY.  SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY WILL
GIVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SVR WEATHER ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE UPPER FLOW WILL BE BETTER.  LATEST
STORM SCALE MODELS FOR TODAY DO NOT SHOW PARTICULARLY STRONG
SUPERCELL ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...AND THE MAIN THREATS ARE FLASH
FLOODING FROM AREAS WITH TRAINING STORMS...SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS TOMORROW 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST HOLDS A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO OUR
RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME. ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE WAVE SHOULD
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH COMBINED
WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROF SHOULD HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER FORCING WILL BE WEAK
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY COMES AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE
WESTERLY...WHICH DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
COVERAGE. WE MAY BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE BUT
WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...PRECIP
PROB DIMINISHES AND MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE FCST REFLECTS THIS
DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE TO OUR EAST. IN SPITE OF THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH...THIS MID/UPPER SYSTEM HAS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE...THUS PRECIP CHANCES WERE CUT BACK IN MOST
PLACES. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LINGERING CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
IN THE EVENING...BUT THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A SMALL CHANCE ONLY
NEAR THE TN BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVE LULL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT WAVE
AND THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY...ACCOUNTING
FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE TN BORDER. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD BREAK CONTAINMENT AND MOVE OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
THE EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT CENTER. IN ITS
WAKE...PRECIP CHANCES TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...WITH A COOL-DOWN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INITIAL
WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE EXT RANGE FCST
AS THE OP MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ULVL PATTERN
AND THE SENSIBLE WX RESPONSE. THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING LITTLE
SPREAD OVER THE ERN CONUS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...MAINLY DUE TO DEEPNESS
DIFS WITH THE UPPER LOW.

THE PATTERN STILL SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE ERN LOW
DEEPENING AND DROPPING SE OFF THE ATL COAST INTO THE SAT TIME
FRAME...THEN QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHOT OF LLVL MOISTURE TO THE FAR
WRN MTNS EARLY THU...WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNRISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF RESPONSE FROM THIS FEATURE. THINGS WILL REMAIN
RATHER DRY AFTER THAT AS DEEP NW FLOW ENGULFS THE REGION AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW THETA/E AIR MIXES IN. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FRI BTW THE OP MODELS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/W CREATING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AM
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SITUATION EITHER.
THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN RATHER STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO
THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS. OVERALL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
PRETTY NICE FOR EARLY MAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDS...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY A CAT OR SO ARE
EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PROBABLE BY SUN AS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEARS AND DEEP SUBS INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHORTLY LEAVE THE AREA.
FURTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY BEFORE THEN.  MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND OF AROUND
10KT.  SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND
SHOWER/AFTERNOON THUNDER ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY.  CLOUDS MAY HAVE
CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING...THOUGH
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NIGHT.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10KT.
WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND RECENT RAINS...SOME LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES PRONE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KHKY       MED   69%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KGMU       HIGH  84%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KAND       MED   75%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...WJM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 020738
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS FROM CANADA THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY MORNING...AREA IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OF
PRECIP...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY ARISE OVERNIGHT.
PER CAM MODEL GUIDANCE...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
REDEVELOPMENT/INITIATION MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING...IN AN ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH
CAPE A LITTLE HIGHER TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. CURRENT PATTERN OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAINTAINING BL
MOISTURE WITH FORCING FROM A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY...IMPROVING THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA WITH BULK SHEAR IMPROVING TO 30 TO 40 KTS FROM 25 TO 35 SEEN ON
SUNDAY.  SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY WILL
GIVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SVR WEATHER ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE UPPER FLOW WILL BE BETTER.  LATEST
STORM SCALE MODELS FOR TODAY DO NOT SHOW PARTICULARLY STRONG
SUPERCELL ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...AND THE MAIN THREATS ARE FLASH
FLOODING FROM AREAS WITH TRAINING STORMS...SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS TOMORROW 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST HOLDS A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO OUR
RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME. ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE WAVE SHOULD
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH COMBINED
WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROF SHOULD HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER FORCING WILL BE WEAK
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY COMES AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE
WESTERLY...WHICH DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
COVERAGE. WE MAY BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE BUT
WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...PRECIP
PROB DIMINISHES AND MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE FCST REFLECTS THIS
DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE TO OUR EAST. IN SPITE OF THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH...THIS MID/UPPER SYSTEM HAS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE...THUS PRECIP CHANCES WERE CUT BACK IN MOST
PLACES. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LINGERING CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
IN THE EVENING...BUT THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A SMALL CHANCE ONLY
NEAR THE TN BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVE LULL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT WAVE
AND THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY...ACCOUNTING
FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE TN BORDER. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD BREAK CONTAINMENT AND MOVE OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
THE EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT CENTER. IN ITS
WAKE...PRECIP CHANCES TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...WITH A COOL-DOWN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INITIAL
WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE EXT RANGE FCST
AS THE OP MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ULVL PATTERN
AND THE SENSIBLE WX RESPONSE. THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING LITTLE
SPREAD OVER THE ERN CONUS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...MAINLY DUE TO DEEPNESS
DIFS WITH THE UPPER LOW.

THE PATTERN STILL SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE ERN LOW
DEEPENING AND DROPPING SE OFF THE ATL COAST INTO THE SAT TIME
FRAME...THEN QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHOT OF LLVL MOISTURE TO THE FAR
WRN MTNS EARLY THU...WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNRISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF RESPONSE FROM THIS FEATURE. THINGS WILL REMAIN
RATHER DRY AFTER THAT AS DEEP NW FLOW ENGULFS THE REGION AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW THETA/E AIR MIXES IN. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FRI BTW THE OP MODELS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/W CREATING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AM
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SITUATION EITHER.
THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN RATHER STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO
THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS. OVERALL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
PRETTY NICE FOR EARLY MAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDS...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY A CAT OR SO ARE
EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PROBABLE BY SUN AS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEARS AND DEEP SUBS INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHORTLY LEAVE THE AREA.
FURTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY BEFORE THEN.  MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND OF AROUND
10KT.  SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND
SHOWER/AFTERNOON THUNDER ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY.  CLOUDS MAY HAVE
CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING...THOUGH
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NIGHT.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10KT.
WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND RECENT RAINS...SOME LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES PRONE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KHKY       MED   69%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KGMU       HIGH  84%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KAND       MED   75%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...WJM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 020545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AN KEEP A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR PERSISTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY MORNING...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHORTLY EXIT THE CWA EASTWARD WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
UPSTREAM.  PER CAM MODEL GUIDANCE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL REDEVELOPMENT/INITIATION MONDAY AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT
SIMILAR TO THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 35 KTS. HOWEVER...A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THEN. CURRENT PATTERN OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAINTAINING BL MOISTURE
WITH FORCING FROM A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOMORROW 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE BROAD MODEL CONSENSUS DOES NOT LEAD TO
MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING THINKING WITH RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ATOP THE SE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY LOWERING AND A BROAD WSW FLOW THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER REMAINS. DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING...
SCATTERED DIURNAL ENHANCED TSTMS ARE STILL PROBABLE. THE UPPER
PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE LOWER LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA
LEAVING US IN A RELATIVE LULL. ENERGY DUMBBELLING AROUND DEEPENING
UPPER LOW MAY RESULT IN MTN SHOWERS BY WED NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE EXT RANGE FCST
AS THE OP MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ULVL PATTERN
AND THE SENSIBLE WX RESPONSE. THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING LITTLE
SPREAD OVER THE ERN CONUS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...MAINLY DUE TO DEEPNESS
DIFS WITH THE UPPER LOW.

THE PATTERN STILL SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE ERN LOW
DEEPENING AND DROPPING SE OFF THE ATL COAST INTO THE SAT TIME
FRAME...THEN QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHOT OF LLVL MOISTURE TO THE FAR
WRN MTNS EARLY THU...WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNRISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF RESPONSE FROM THIS FEATURE. THINGS WILL REMAIN
RATHER DRY AFTER THAT AS DEEP NW FLOW ENGULFS THE REGION AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW THETA/E AIR MIXES IN. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FRI BTW THE OP MODELS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/W CREATING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AM
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SITUATION EITHER.
THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN RATHER STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO
THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS. OVERALL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
PRETTY NICE FOR EARLY MAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDS...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY A CAT OR SO ARE
EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PROBABLE BY SUN AS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEARS AND DEEP SUBS INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHORTLY LEAVE THE AREA.
FURTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY BEFORE THEN.  MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND OF AROUND
10KT.  SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND
SHOWER/AFTERNOON THUNDER ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY.  CLOUDS MAY HAVE
CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING...THOUGH
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NIGHT.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10KT.
WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND RECENT RAINS...SOME LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES PRONE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       LOW   57%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...WJM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 020545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AN KEEP A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR PERSISTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY MORNING...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHORTLY EXIT THE CWA EASTWARD WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
UPSTREAM.  PER CAM MODEL GUIDANCE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL REDEVELOPMENT/INITIATION MONDAY AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT
SIMILAR TO THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 35 KTS. HOWEVER...A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THEN. CURRENT PATTERN OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAINTAINING BL MOISTURE
WITH FORCING FROM A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOMORROW 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE BROAD MODEL CONSENSUS DOES NOT LEAD TO
MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING THINKING WITH RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ATOP THE SE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY LOWERING AND A BROAD WSW FLOW THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER REMAINS. DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING...
SCATTERED DIURNAL ENHANCED TSTMS ARE STILL PROBABLE. THE UPPER
PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE LOWER LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA
LEAVING US IN A RELATIVE LULL. ENERGY DUMBBELLING AROUND DEEPENING
UPPER LOW MAY RESULT IN MTN SHOWERS BY WED NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE EXT RANGE FCST
AS THE OP MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ULVL PATTERN
AND THE SENSIBLE WX RESPONSE. THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING LITTLE
SPREAD OVER THE ERN CONUS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...MAINLY DUE TO DEEPNESS
DIFS WITH THE UPPER LOW.

THE PATTERN STILL SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE ERN LOW
DEEPENING AND DROPPING SE OFF THE ATL COAST INTO THE SAT TIME
FRAME...THEN QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHOT OF LLVL MOISTURE TO THE FAR
WRN MTNS EARLY THU...WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNRISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF RESPONSE FROM THIS FEATURE. THINGS WILL REMAIN
RATHER DRY AFTER THAT AS DEEP NW FLOW ENGULFS THE REGION AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW THETA/E AIR MIXES IN. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FRI BTW THE OP MODELS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/W CREATING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AM
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SITUATION EITHER.
THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN RATHER STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO
THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS. OVERALL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
PRETTY NICE FOR EARLY MAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDS...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY A CAT OR SO ARE
EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PROBABLE BY SUN AS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEARS AND DEEP SUBS INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHORTLY LEAVE THE AREA.
FURTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY BEFORE THEN.  MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND OF AROUND
10KT.  SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND
SHOWER/AFTERNOON THUNDER ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY.  CLOUDS MAY HAVE
CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING...THOUGH
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NIGHT.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10KT.
WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND RECENT RAINS...SOME LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES PRONE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       LOW   57%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...WJM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 020512
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
112 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AN KEEP A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR PERSISTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY MORNING...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHORTLY EXIT THE CWA EASTWARD WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
UPSTREAM.  PER CAM MODEL GUIDANCE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL REDEVELOPMENT/INITIATION MONDAY AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT
SIMILAR TO THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 35 KTS. HOWEVER...A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THEN. CURRENT PATTERN OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAINTAINING BL MOISTURE
WITH FORCING FROM A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOMORROW 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY HIGH RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE BROAD MODEL CONSENSUS DOES NOT LEAD TO
MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING THINKING WITH RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ATOP THE SE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY LOWERING AND A BROAD WSW FLOW THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER REMAINS. DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING...
SCATTERED DIURNAL ENHANCED TSTMS ARE STILL PROBABLE. THE UPPER
PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE LOWER LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA
LEAVING US IN A RELATIVE LULL. ENERGY DUMBBELLING AROUND DEEPENING
UPPER LOW MAY RESULT IN MTN SHOWERS BY WED NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE EXT RANGE FCST
AS THE OP MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ULVL PATTERN
AND THE SENSIBLE WX RESPONSE. THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING LITTLE
SPREAD OVER THE ERN CONUS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...MAINLY DUE TO DEEPNESS
DIFS WITH THE UPPER LOW.

THE PATTERN STILL SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE ERN LOW
DEEPENING AND DROPPING SE OFF THE ATL COAST INTO THE SAT TIME
FRAME...THEN QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHOT OF LLVL MOISTURE TO THE FAR
WRN MTNS EARLY THU...WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNRISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF RESPONSE FROM THIS FEATURE. THINGS WILL REMAIN
RATHER DRY AFTER THAT AS DEEP NW FLOW ENGULFS THE REGION AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW THETA/E AIR MIXES IN. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FRI BTW THE OP MODELS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/W CREATING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AM
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SITUATION EITHER.
THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN RATHER STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO
THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS. OVERALL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
PRETTY NICE FOR EARLY MAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDS...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY A CAT OR SO ARE
EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PROBABLE BY SUN AS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEARS AND DEEP SUBS INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...THUNDER MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EVENING...WITH SOME MODELS EVEN SUGGESTING AN INCREASE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAD VARIED ON DAYBREAK VSBY RESTRICTIONS, BUT THE
BEST BET APPEARS TO BE AT MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SITES, WITH VFR AT
KCLT. CEILING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR BY DAWN AT SC SITES AND
BRIEFLY IFR AT KCLT. BLENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOW VFR DAYBREAK CIGS
AT KAVL AND KHKY, BUT SCATTERED LOW DECK CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER DAWN. THUNDER CHANCES, THOUGH
NEVER ZERO, WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH HEATING AFTER DAWN, ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE SSW.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       LOW   57%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 020157
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
957 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AN KEEP A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR PERSISTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
0200 UTC UPDATE: ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS. POPS WERE AGAIN ADJUSTED PER RADAR TRENDS.

0015 UTC UPDATE: POPS WERE RAISED IN THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA PER
RADAR TRENDS.

2315 UTC UPDATE: POPS WERE ADJUSTED PER RADAR TRENDS. SKY COVER WAS
UPDATED FROM THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO
INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM DATA.

2030 UTC UPDATE: POPS WERE RAISED IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY, AND IN PARTS OF WESTERN NC, PER RADAR TRENDS.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WILL INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
LIKELY POPS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT BY EARLY EVENING. SBCAPE REMAINS
RATHER MUTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS
THE NW NC PIEDMONT...WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED NORTH OF
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE CAD BOUNDARY. NEVERTHELESS...ENOUGH SUN IS
PEEKING THROUGH THE CU AND STRATOCU THAT ONE COULD EXPECT THE
ATMOSPHERE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY REACHING 2000
J/KG ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY STRONG...THUS A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A RESULT OF GRID-SCALE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...AS IT HAS ITS ORIGINS WITHIN AN AREA OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITHIN THE MODEL(S) ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...
SOMETIMES SUCH THINGS ARE /REAL/. IT IS INTERESTING THAT SOME OF THE
LATEST MESOSCALE/CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE LIKING THE IDEA OF
SOME VIGOROUS-LOOKING CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPSTATE AND
NORTHEAST GA BY LATE EVENING. I/M NOT QUITE PREPARED TO JUMP ON THIS
YET...BUT SOLID CHANCE POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING DOWN OVERNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AS DEEP
SW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND DECENT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERSISTENT MODERATE LEVELS OF SHEAR. WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY
(ALBEIT JUST TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY)...IT APPEARS THAT
TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR
INITIATION OF CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. WILL ONCE AGAIN ADVERTISE
LIKELY POPS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID-AFTERNOON...EXPANDING THOSE
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...TO ACCOUNT
FOR ACTIVITY ORIGINATING FROM THE FRONT TO POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. ANOTHER DAY WITH A MARGINAL CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS
LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE BROAD MODEL CONSENSUS DOES NOT LEAD TO
MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING THINKING WITH RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ATOP THE SE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY LOWERING AND A BROAD WSW FLOW THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER REMAINS. DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING...
SCATTERED DIURNAL ENHANCED TSTMS ARE STILL PROBABLE. THE UPPER
PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE LOWER LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA
LEAVING US IN A RELATIVE LULL. ENERGY DUMBBELLING AROUND DEEPENING
UPPER LOW MAY RESULT IN MTN SHOWERS BY WED NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE EXT RANGE FCST
AS THE OP MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ULVL PATTERN
AND THE SENSIBLE WX RESPONSE. THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING LITTLE
SPREAD OVER THE ERN CONUS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...MAINLY DUE TO DEEPNESS
DIFS WITH THE UPPER LOW.

THE PATTERN STILL SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE ERN LOW
DEEPENING AND DROPPING SE OFF THE ATL COAST INTO THE SAT TIME
FRAME...THEN QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHOT OF LLVL MOISTURE TO THE FAR
WRN MTNS EARLY THU...WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNRISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF RESPONSE FROM THIS FEATURE. THINGS WILL REMAIN
RATHER DRY AFTER THAT AS DEEP NW FLOW ENGULFS THE REGION AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW THETA/E AIR MIXES IN. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FRI BTW THE OP MODELS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/W CREATING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AM
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SITUATION EITHER.
THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN RATHER STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO
THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS. OVERALL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
PRETTY NICE FOR EARLY MAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDS...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY A CAT OR SO ARE
EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PROBABLE BY SUN AS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEARS AND DEEP SUBS INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...THUNDER MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EVENING...WITH SOME MODELS EVEN SUGGESTING AN INCREASE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAD VARIED ON DAYBREAK VSBY RESTRICTIONS, BUT THE
BEST BET APPEARS TO BE AT MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SITES, WITH VFR AT
KCLT. CEILING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR BY DAWN AT SC SITES AND
BRIEFLY IFR AT KCLT. BLENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOW VFR DAYBREAK CIGS
AT KAVL AND KHKY, BUT SCATTERED LOW DECK CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER DAWN. THUNDER CHANCES, THOUGH
NEVER ZERO, WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH HEATING AFTER DAWN, ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE SSW.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/JDL
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 012310
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
710 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AN KEEP A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR PERSISTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
2315 UTC UPDATE: POPS WERE ADJUSTED PER RADAR TRENDS. SKY COVER WAS
UPDATED FROM THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO
INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM DATA.

2030 UTC UPDATE: POPS WERE RAISED IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY, AND IN PARTS OF WESTERN NC, PER RADAR TRENDS.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WILL INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
LIKELY POPS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT BY EARLY EVENING. SBCAPE REMAINS
RATHER MUTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS
THE NW NC PIEDMONT...WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED NORTH OF
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE CAD BOUNDARY. NEVERTHELESS...ENOUGH SUN IS
PEEKING THROUGH THE CU AND STRATOCU THAT ONE COULD EXPECT THE
ATMOSPHERE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY REACHING 2000
J/KG ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY STRONG...THUS A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A RESULT OF GRID-SCALE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...AS IT HAS ITS ORIGINS WITHIN AN AREA OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITHIN THE MODEL(S) ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...
SOMETIMES SUCH THINGS ARE /REAL/. IT IS INTERESTING THAT SOME OF THE
LATEST MESOSCALE/CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE LIKING THE IDEA OF
SOME VIGOROUS-LOOKING CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPSTATE AND
NORTHEAST GA BY LATE EVENING. I/M NOT QUITE PREPARED TO JUMP ON THIS
YET...BUT SOLID CHANCE POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING DOWN OVERNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AS DEEP
SW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND DECENT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERSISTENT MODERATE LEVELS OF SHEAR. WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY
(ALBEIT JUST TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY)...IT APPEARS THAT
TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR
INITIATION OF CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. WILL ONCE AGAIN ADVERTISE
LIKELY POPS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID-AFTERNOON...EXPANDING THOSE
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...TO ACCOUNT
FOR ACTIVITY ORIGINATING FROM THE FRONT TO POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. ANOTHER DAY WITH A MARGINAL CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS
LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE BROAD MODEL CONSENSUS DOES NOT LEAD TO
MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING THINKING WITH RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ATOP THE SE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY LOWERING AND A BROAD WSW FLOW THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER REMAINS. DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING...
SCATTERED DIURNAL ENHANCED TSTMS ARE STILL PROBABLE. THE UPPER
PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE LOWER LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA
LEAVING US IN A RELATIVE LULL. ENERGY DUMBBELLING AROUND DEEPENING
UPPER LOW MAY RESULT IN MTN SHOWERS BY WED NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE EXT RANGE FCST
AS THE OP MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ULVL PATTERN
AND THE SENSIBLE WX RESPONSE. THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING LITTLE
SPREAD OVER THE ERN CONUS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...MAINLY DUE TO DEEPNESS
DIFS WITH THE UPPER LOW.

THE PATTERN STILL SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE ERN LOW
DEEPENING AND DROPPING SE OFF THE ATL COAST INTO THE SAT TIME
FRAME...THEN QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHOT OF LLVL MOISTURE TO THE FAR
WRN MTNS EARLY THU...WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNRISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF RESPONSE FROM THIS FEATURE. THINGS WILL REMAIN
RATHER DRY AFTER THAT AS DEEP NW FLOW ENGULFS THE REGION AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW THETA/E AIR MIXES IN. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FRI BTW THE OP MODELS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/W CREATING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AM
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SITUATION EITHER.
THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN RATHER STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO
THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS. OVERALL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
PRETTY NICE FOR EARLY MAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDS...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY A CAT OR SO ARE
EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PROBABLE BY SUN AS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEARS AND DEEP SUBS INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...THUNDER MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EVENING...WITH SOME MODELS EVEN SUGGESTING AN INCREASE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAD VARIED ON DAYBREAK VSBY RESTRICTIONS, BUT THE
BEST BET APPEARS TO BE AT MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SITES, WITH VFR AT
KCLT. CEILING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR BY DAWN AT SC SITES AND
BRIEFLY IFR AT KCLT. BLENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOW VFR DAYBREAK CIGS
AT KAVL AND KHKY, BUT SCATTERED LOW DECK CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER DAWN. THUNDER CHANCES, THOUGH
NEVER ZERO, WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH HEATING AFTER DAWN, ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE SSW.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   55%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/JDL
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 012023
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AN KEEP A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR PERSISTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
2030 UTC UPDATE: POPS WERE RAISED IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY, AND IN PARTS OF WESTERN NC, PER RADAR TRENDS.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WILL INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
LIKELY POPS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT BY EARLY EVENING. SBCAPE REMAINS
RATHER MUTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS
THE NW NC PIEDMONT...WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED NORTH OF
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE CAD BOUNDARY. NEVERTHELESS...ENOUGH SUN IS
PEEKING THROUGH THE CU AND STRATOCU THAT ONE COULD EXPECT THE
ATMOSPHERE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY REACHING 2000
J/KG ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY STRONG...THUS A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A RESULT OF GRID-SCALE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...AS IT HAS ITS ORIGINS WITHIN AN AREA OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITHIN THE MODEL(S) ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...
SOMETIMES SUCH THINGS ARE /REAL/. IT IS INTERESTING THAT SOME OF THE
LATEST MESOSCALE/CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE LIKING THE IDEA OF
SOME VIGOROUS-LOOKING CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPSTATE AND
NORTHEAST GA BY LATE EVENING. I/M NOT QUITE PREPARED TO JUMP ON THIS
YET...BUT SOLID CHANCE POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING DOWN OVERNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AS DEEP
SW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND DECENT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERSISTENT MODERATE LEVELS OF SHEAR. WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY
(ALBEIT JUST TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY)...IT APPEARS THAT
TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR
INITIATION OF CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. WILL ONCE AGAIN ADVERTISE
LIKELY POPS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID-AFTERNOON...EXPANDING THOSE
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...TO ACCOUNT
FOR ACTIVITY ORIGINATING FROM THE FRONT TO POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. ANOTHER DAY WITH A MARGINAL CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS
LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE BROAD MODEL CONSENSUS DOES NOT LEAD TO
MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING THINKING WITH RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ATOP THE SE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY LOWERING AND A BROAD WSW FLOW THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER REMAINS. DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING...
SCATTERED DIURNAL ENHANCED TSTMS ARE STILL PROBABLE. THE UPPER
PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE LOWER LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA
LEAVING US IN A RELATIVE LULL. ENERGY DUMBBELLING AROUND DEEPENING
UPPER LOW MAY RESULT IN MTN SHOWERS BY WED NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE EXT RANGE FCST
AS THE OP MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ULVL PATTERN
AND THE SENSIBLE WX RESPONSE. THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING LITTLE
SPREAD OVER THE ERN CONUS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...MAINLY DUE TO DEEPNESS
DIFS WITH THE UPPER LOW.

THE PATTERN STILL SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE ERN LOW
DEEPENING AND DROPPING SE OFF THE ATL COAST INTO THE SAT TIME
FRAME...THEN QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHOT OF LLVL MOISTURE TO THE FAR
WRN MTNS EARLY THU...WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNRISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF RESPONSE FROM THIS FEATURE. THINGS WILL REMAIN
RATHER DRY AFTER THAT AS DEEP NW FLOW ENGULFS THE REGION AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW THETA/E AIR MIXES IN. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FRI BTW THE OP MODELS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/W CREATING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AM
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SITUATION EITHER.
THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN RATHER STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO
THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS. OVERALL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
PRETTY NICE FOR EARLY MAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDS...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY A CAT OR SO ARE
EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PROBABLE BY SUN AS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEARS AND DEEP SUBS INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY
INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AT 18Z...ESP ALONG AND NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL
INCREASE...THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE SUCH THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD BE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. MOST TERMINALS RECEIVE
A TEMPO FOR TSRA BTW 21 AND 01Z. ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KHKY...WHERE
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK UNDER OVERCAST MVFR CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE A DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION WILL BE
ADVERTISED BY LATE EVENING...THIS WILL NEED LATER REEVALUATION.
CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP
ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND FAR WESTERN NC...AS A WEAK UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE APPPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

WITH DRYING MID/UPPER LEVELS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTING...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
AND/OR STRATUS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS FAR FROM A
CERTAINTY...AND WE HAVE OPTED TO ONLY HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY WITH
3-6SM AND FEW/SCT CLOUDS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAY BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/JDL
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 012023
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AN KEEP A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR PERSISTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
2030 UTC UPDATE: POPS WERE RAISED IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY, AND IN PARTS OF WESTERN NC, PER RADAR TRENDS.

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WILL INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
LIKELY POPS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT BY EARLY EVENING. SBCAPE REMAINS
RATHER MUTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS
THE NW NC PIEDMONT...WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED NORTH OF
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE CAD BOUNDARY. NEVERTHELESS...ENOUGH SUN IS
PEEKING THROUGH THE CU AND STRATOCU THAT ONE COULD EXPECT THE
ATMOSPHERE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY REACHING 2000
J/KG ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY STRONG...THUS A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A RESULT OF GRID-SCALE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...AS IT HAS ITS ORIGINS WITHIN AN AREA OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITHIN THE MODEL(S) ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...
SOMETIMES SUCH THINGS ARE /REAL/. IT IS INTERESTING THAT SOME OF THE
LATEST MESOSCALE/CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE LIKING THE IDEA OF
SOME VIGOROUS-LOOKING CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPSTATE AND
NORTHEAST GA BY LATE EVENING. I/M NOT QUITE PREPARED TO JUMP ON THIS
YET...BUT SOLID CHANCE POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING DOWN OVERNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AS DEEP
SW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND DECENT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERSISTENT MODERATE LEVELS OF SHEAR. WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY
(ALBEIT JUST TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY)...IT APPEARS THAT
TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR
INITIATION OF CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. WILL ONCE AGAIN ADVERTISE
LIKELY POPS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID-AFTERNOON...EXPANDING THOSE
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...TO ACCOUNT
FOR ACTIVITY ORIGINATING FROM THE FRONT TO POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. ANOTHER DAY WITH A MARGINAL CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS
LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE BROAD MODEL CONSENSUS DOES NOT LEAD TO
MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING THINKING WITH RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ATOP THE SE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY LOWERING AND A BROAD WSW FLOW THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER REMAINS. DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING...
SCATTERED DIURNAL ENHANCED TSTMS ARE STILL PROBABLE. THE UPPER
PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE LOWER LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA
LEAVING US IN A RELATIVE LULL. ENERGY DUMBBELLING AROUND DEEPENING
UPPER LOW MAY RESULT IN MTN SHOWERS BY WED NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE EXT RANGE FCST
AS THE OP MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ULVL PATTERN
AND THE SENSIBLE WX RESPONSE. THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING LITTLE
SPREAD OVER THE ERN CONUS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...MAINLY DUE TO DEEPNESS
DIFS WITH THE UPPER LOW.

THE PATTERN STILL SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE ERN LOW
DEEPENING AND DROPPING SE OFF THE ATL COAST INTO THE SAT TIME
FRAME...THEN QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHOT OF LLVL MOISTURE TO THE FAR
WRN MTNS EARLY THU...WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNRISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF RESPONSE FROM THIS FEATURE. THINGS WILL REMAIN
RATHER DRY AFTER THAT AS DEEP NW FLOW ENGULFS THE REGION AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW THETA/E AIR MIXES IN. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FRI BTW THE OP MODELS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/W CREATING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AM
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SITUATION EITHER.
THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN RATHER STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO
THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS. OVERALL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
PRETTY NICE FOR EARLY MAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDS...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY A CAT OR SO ARE
EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PROBABLE BY SUN AS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEARS AND DEEP SUBS INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY
INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AT 18Z...ESP ALONG AND NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL
INCREASE...THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE SUCH THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD BE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. MOST TERMINALS RECEIVE
A TEMPO FOR TSRA BTW 21 AND 01Z. ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KHKY...WHERE
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK UNDER OVERCAST MVFR CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE A DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION WILL BE
ADVERTISED BY LATE EVENING...THIS WILL NEED LATER REEVALUATION.
CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP
ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND FAR WESTERN NC...AS A WEAK UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE APPPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

WITH DRYING MID/UPPER LEVELS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTING...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
AND/OR STRATUS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS FAR FROM A
CERTAINTY...AND WE HAVE OPTED TO ONLY HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY WITH
3-6SM AND FEW/SCT CLOUDS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAY BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  97%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/JDL
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011820
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AN KEEP A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR PERSISTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WILL INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
LIKELY POPS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT BY EARLY EVENING. SBCAPE REMAINS
RATHER MUTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS
THE NW NC PIEDMONT...WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED NORTH OF
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE CAD BOUNDARY. NEVERTHELESS...ENOUGH SUN IS
PEEKING THROUGH THE CU AND STRATOCU THAT ONE COULD EXPECT THE
ATMOSPHERE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY REACHING 2000
J/KG ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY STRONG...THUS A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A RESULT OF GRID-SCALE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...AS IT HAS ITS ORIGINS WITHIN AN AREA OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITHIN THE MODEL(S) ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...
SOMETIMES SUCH THINGS ARE /REAL/. IT IS INTERESTING THAT SOME OF THE
LATEST MESOSCALE/CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE LIKING THE IDEA OF
SOME VIGOROUS-LOOKING CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPSTATE AND
NORTHEAST GA BY LATE EVENING. I/M NOT QUITE PREPARED TO JUMP ON THIS
YET...BUT SOLID CHANCE POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING DOWN OVERNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AS DEEP
SW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND DECENT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERSISTENT MODERATE LEVELS OF SHEAR. WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY
(ALBEIT JUST TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY)...IT APPEARS THAT
TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR
INITIATION OF CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. WILL ONCE AGAIN ADVERTISE
LIKELY POPS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID-AFTERNOON...EXPANDING THOSE
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE MTNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...TO ACCOUNT
FOR ACTIVITY ORIGINATING FROM THE FRONT TO POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. ANOTHER DAY WITH A MARGINAL CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS
LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE BROAD MODEL CONSENSUS DOES NOT LEAD TO
MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING THINKING WITH RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ATOP THE SE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY LOWERING AND A BROAD WSW FLOW THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER REMAINS. DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING...
SCATTERED DIURNAL ENHANCED TSTMS ARE STILL PROBABLE. THE UPPER
PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE LOWER LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA
LEAVING US IN A RELATIVE LULL. ENERGY DUMBBELLING AROUND DEEPENING
UPPER LOW MAY RESULT IN MTN SHOWERS BY WED NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE EXT RANGE FCST
AS THE OP MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ULVL PATTERN
AND THE SENSIBLE WX RESPONSE. THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING LITTLE
SPREAD OVER THE ERN CONUS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...MAINLY DUE TO DEEPNESS
DIFS WITH THE UPPER LOW.

THE PATTERN STILL SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH THE ERN LOW
DEEPENING AND DROPPING SE OFF THE ATL COAST INTO THE SAT TIME
FRAME...THEN QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHOT OF LLVL MOISTURE TO THE FAR
WRN MTNS EARLY THU...WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNRISE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF RESPONSE FROM THIS FEATURE. THINGS WILL REMAIN
RATHER DRY AFTER THAT AS DEEP NW FLOW ENGULFS THE REGION AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW THETA/E AIR MIXES IN. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FRI BTW THE OP MODELS WITH AN EMBEDDED S/W CREATING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AM
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THIS SITUATION EITHER.
THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN RATHER STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO
THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS. OVERALL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
PRETTY NICE FOR EARLY MAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDS...MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY A CAT OR SO ARE
EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PROBABLE BY SUN AS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEARS AND DEEP SUBS INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY
INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AT 18Z...ESP ALONG AND NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL
INCREASE...THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE SUCH THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD BE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. MOST TERMINALS RECEIVE
A TEMPO FOR TSRA BTW 21 AND 01Z. ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KHKY...WHERE
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK UNDER OVERCAST MVFR CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE A DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION WILL BE
ADVERTISED BY LATE EVENING...THIS WILL NEED LATER REEVALUATION.
CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP
ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND FAR WESTERN NC...AS A WEAK UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE APPPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

WITH DRYING MID/UPPER LEVELS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTING...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
AND/OR STRATUS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS FAR FROM A
CERTAINTY...AND WE HAVE OPTED TO ONLY HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY WITH
3-6SM AND FEW/SCT CLOUDS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAY BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011540
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1140 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. MEANWHILE...A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A SECOND STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING DOWN A MASS OF COLD AIR
FROM CANADA FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM...PER LATEST WV IMAGERY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TAKING
THE AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT.
MEANWHILE...THE OLD CAD BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED TO NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER...WITH SW SFC WINDS NOW BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE
SC AND NORTHEAST GA. QUITE A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH CUMULUS TENDS TO FILL IN PRETTY QUICKLY WITHIN THE MOIST
ENVIRONS. SBCAPE IS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG IN DEEPER
INTO THE WARM SECTOR (ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE AND THE SOUTHWEST
NC MTNS). ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW PEAKS OF
SUN...IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. THAT
BEING THE CASE...IT STILL SEEMS THE 2000+ SBCAPE DEPICTED IN SOME
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS A BIT OVERDONE...BUT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY
SHOULD NEVERTHELESS EXIST TO ALLOW FOR STRONG TO A PERHAPS A HANDFUL
OF SEVERE STORMS.

HAVING SAID THAT...IT/S NOT AT ALL CLEAR HOW CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
GOING TO EVOLVE LATER TODAY. WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW ISOLATED CELLS...AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
TERRAIN EFFECTS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SOURCES OF LIFT
TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE...SO IT/S NOT CLEAR AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ADEQUATE LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE LATEST HIRES/
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE LULL WILL PERSIST WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR DOES EXPAND COVERAGE OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH (IT/S THE ONLY HIRES MODEL THAT/S REALLY DOING
THIS). BASED UPON THE EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IT SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL ALLOW POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY THERE BY EARLY EVENING...WITH SOLID CHANCES
ADVERTISED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UPSTATE/SC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHWEST NC
PIEDMONT FOR HYDRO ISSUES...AS SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN
ACROSS A FAIRLY WIDE SWATH SINCE SAT EVENING.

THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING OR SO. TONIGHT/S LOWS WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300AM EDT SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON
MONDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW PERSISTS AROUND A
SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF AN UPPER CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH THAT MAKES GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.  MONDAY AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES...MODEST INSTABILITY...AND
MODEST BULKSHEAR...CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END SEVERE AND LOCAL FLOODING IF CELLS SHOULD
TRAIN OVER ONE AREA.

TROUGH REACHES THE CWA WITH A COLD FRONT AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS MONDAY NIGHT.  LIGHTER NON-THUNDER SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
TUESDAY MORNING...DESPITE DECLINING PWATS...DUE TO FORCING FROM
UPPER SYSTEM.  SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT TUESDAY WILL HAVE
MOSTLY DRYER CONDITIONS AND AN END TO RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300AM SUNDAY...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF MAJOR FRONT EARLY
TUESDAY...MOISTURE PLUMMETS ACROSS THE AREA AND SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALSO DECLINE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MODELS HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA BUT GREATLY REDUCED BL MOISTURE LIMITS
POTENTIAL.

IN ADDITION TO SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND MAJOR UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHOT
OF COOL CANADIAN AIR DESCENDING WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH WITH A MAJOR
COLD FROPA ON THURSDAY...AND THE COLDEST POINT IN THE FORECAST BEING
REACHED FRIDAY MORNING.  GFS STILL HAS 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -2C OVER
THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE EC SLIGHTLY WARMER AT
-1C.  FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WITH
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ON THE WEST SLOPE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE TO STILL PRECLUDE
ANY WINTER PRECIP. TYPES.  GFS-EC AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD THROUGH
THURSDAY...INCLUDING DETAILS ABOUT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
COOL AIR INTRUSION FRIDAY IS SEASONALLY SHORT-LIVED WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A MIXED BAG THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS
WITH VARIABLE CEILING AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON LOCATION RELATIVE
TO WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MOST
PLACES WILL BE MVFR OR IFR/LIFR THROUGH THAT TIME...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT IFR WILL PREVAIL MAINLY OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AS THE MAIN AREA
OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH. THINK THE BIGGER PROBLEM WILL BE CEILING
AND NOT VISIBILITY. MEANWHILE...THERE WILL BE SOME VFR HOLES IN THE
LOW CLOUD CEILING. WIND GENERALLY SHOULD BE SE TO THE SOUTH OF AN
OLD BOUNDARY RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG I-85...AND NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT WITH SE WIND TAKING
SHAPE AT ALL PLACES BY MID MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN
THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...THEN ANOTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY.  THE TSRA CHANCE WILL BE
HANDLED WITH A TEMPO AT ALL SITES. ENDED PRECIP/RESTRICTION THREAT
EVERYWHERE BY 00Z BASED ON GUIDANCE SHOWING A WAVE MOVING PAST
AROUND THAT TIME. MOST DETAIL BEYOND 00Z MONDAY WAS ELIMINATED FOR
BREVITY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A FRONT BECOMES
STALLED NEAR THE AREA. DEFINITIVE DRYING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
UNTIL AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   68%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       LOW   53%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 011540
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1140 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. MEANWHILE...A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A SECOND STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING DOWN A MASS OF COLD AIR
FROM CANADA FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM...PER LATEST WV IMAGERY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TAKING
THE AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT.
MEANWHILE...THE OLD CAD BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED TO NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER...WITH SW SFC WINDS NOW BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE
SC AND NORTHEAST GA. QUITE A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH CUMULUS TENDS TO FILL IN PRETTY QUICKLY WITHIN THE MOIST
ENVIRONS. SBCAPE IS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG IN DEEPER
INTO THE WARM SECTOR (ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE AND THE SOUTHWEST
NC MTNS). ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW PEAKS OF
SUN...IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. THAT
BEING THE CASE...IT STILL SEEMS THE 2000+ SBCAPE DEPICTED IN SOME
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS A BIT OVERDONE...BUT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY
SHOULD NEVERTHELESS EXIST TO ALLOW FOR STRONG TO A PERHAPS A HANDFUL
OF SEVERE STORMS.

HAVING SAID THAT...IT/S NOT AT ALL CLEAR HOW CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
GOING TO EVOLVE LATER TODAY. WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW ISOLATED CELLS...AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
TERRAIN EFFECTS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SOURCES OF LIFT
TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE...SO IT/S NOT CLEAR AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ADEQUATE LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE LATEST HIRES/
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE LULL WILL PERSIST WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR DOES EXPAND COVERAGE OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH (IT/S THE ONLY HIRES MODEL THAT/S REALLY DOING
THIS). BASED UPON THE EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IT SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL ALLOW POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY THERE BY EARLY EVENING...WITH SOLID CHANCES
ADVERTISED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UPSTATE/SC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHWEST NC
PIEDMONT FOR HYDRO ISSUES...AS SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN
ACROSS A FAIRLY WIDE SWATH SINCE SAT EVENING.

THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING OR SO. TONIGHT/S LOWS WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300AM EDT SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON
MONDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW PERSISTS AROUND A
SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF AN UPPER CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH THAT MAKES GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.  MONDAY AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES...MODEST INSTABILITY...AND
MODEST BULKSHEAR...CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END SEVERE AND LOCAL FLOODING IF CELLS SHOULD
TRAIN OVER ONE AREA.

TROUGH REACHES THE CWA WITH A COLD FRONT AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS MONDAY NIGHT.  LIGHTER NON-THUNDER SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
TUESDAY MORNING...DESPITE DECLINING PWATS...DUE TO FORCING FROM
UPPER SYSTEM.  SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT TUESDAY WILL HAVE
MOSTLY DRYER CONDITIONS AND AN END TO RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300AM SUNDAY...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF MAJOR FRONT EARLY
TUESDAY...MOISTURE PLUMMETS ACROSS THE AREA AND SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALSO DECLINE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MODELS HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA BUT GREATLY REDUCED BL MOISTURE LIMITS
POTENTIAL.

IN ADDITION TO SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND MAJOR UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHOT
OF COOL CANADIAN AIR DESCENDING WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH WITH A MAJOR
COLD FROPA ON THURSDAY...AND THE COLDEST POINT IN THE FORECAST BEING
REACHED FRIDAY MORNING.  GFS STILL HAS 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -2C OVER
THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE EC SLIGHTLY WARMER AT
-1C.  FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WITH
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ON THE WEST SLOPE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE TO STILL PRECLUDE
ANY WINTER PRECIP. TYPES.  GFS-EC AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD THROUGH
THURSDAY...INCLUDING DETAILS ABOUT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
COOL AIR INTRUSION FRIDAY IS SEASONALLY SHORT-LIVED WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A MIXED BAG THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS
WITH VARIABLE CEILING AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON LOCATION RELATIVE
TO WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MOST
PLACES WILL BE MVFR OR IFR/LIFR THROUGH THAT TIME...WITH THE THOUGHT
THAT IFR WILL PREVAIL MAINLY OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AS THE MAIN AREA
OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH. THINK THE BIGGER PROBLEM WILL BE CEILING
AND NOT VISIBILITY. MEANWHILE...THERE WILL BE SOME VFR HOLES IN THE
LOW CLOUD CEILING. WIND GENERALLY SHOULD BE SE TO THE SOUTH OF AN
OLD BOUNDARY RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG I-85...AND NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT WITH SE WIND TAKING
SHAPE AT ALL PLACES BY MID MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN
THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...THEN ANOTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY.  THE TSRA CHANCE WILL BE
HANDLED WITH A TEMPO AT ALL SITES. ENDED PRECIP/RESTRICTION THREAT
EVERYWHERE BY 00Z BASED ON GUIDANCE SHOWING A WAVE MOVING PAST
AROUND THAT TIME. MOST DETAIL BEYOND 00Z MONDAY WAS ELIMINATED FOR
BREVITY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER/OCCASIONAL CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A FRONT BECOMES
STALLED NEAR THE AREA. DEFINITIVE DRYING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
UNTIL AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   68%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       LOW   53%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...PM





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