Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KGSP 210116
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
916 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK AND LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM...ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO ADD MENTION OF SHWRS ACRS
MUCH OF THE NC PIEDMONT. BASED ON THE LATEST OBS...SEVERAL RAIN
GAGES HAVE REPORTED UP TO 0.05" OF RAIN. THE SHOWERS SEEM TO BE
LOSING INTENSITY AND COVERAGE NOW AS THEY CROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. IN
ANY CASE...SHWRS AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT LATE EVENING
THRU THE OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS LITTLE BIT
OF RAIN WILL INCREASE FOG POTENTIAL...ESP IN THE NC MTNS. I DID NOT
CHANGE THE FOG/VSBY IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 730 PM...THE MAIN BAND OF MID-UPR LVL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE MTNS...WITH A FEW SPOTTY RETURNS ON RADAR. BOTH KAVL
AND K1A5 REPORTED LIGHT RAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY AREAS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE AMTS. I DID TWEAK POPS TO FOLLOW A SLGT CHC AREA WITH THE
MOISTURE BAND INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS THIS EVENING.

AS OF 500 PM...ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO T/TD AND SKY GRIDS HEADING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 245 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH THE FIRST S/W BEING PUSHED INTO EASTERN
KY. THE FIRST WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF CIGS CONSISTING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MODEL PLANE SECTION RH DATA...POINT RH DATA
AND BUFKIT INFORMATION ALL SHOW THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS INSIST THAT OUR NRN MOUNTAINS
COULD STILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...AND WE WILL FOLLOW THAT
COURSE.

MEANWHILE ONCE THAT FIRST BAND OF CLOUDS PASS...AND BEFORE THE NEXT
SURFACE FRONT MAKES IT INTO OUR REGION...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...IN PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC RIVER VALLEYS...NE GA AND THE NW PORTIONS
OF UPSTATE SC. WE WILL ADD FOG TO THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE READINGS OF LAST NIGHT WITH THE PERIOD OF CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING. NICE
PERPENDICULAR LOOK OF THE H85 HEIGHT CONTOURS...RELATIVE TO THE H85
THERMAL PATTERN...SUGGESTS VERY GOOD CROSS CONTOURING...YIELDING
GUSTY WINDS. UPSLOPE FLOW...ALONG WITH A STRONG 2DRY S/W TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL HELP WITH THE GENERATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON COLD AIR CU ELSEWHERE...BUT WOULD BE
SURPRISED IF THEY WERE ABSENT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON OUR MOST RELIABLE MODEL GUIDE SET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE SE STATES IN ITS WAKE WED INTO THU. DEEP LAYER N/NW
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION.
THICKNESSES WILL REBOUND SOME ON THU AS UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS THE LOW TO THE NE PULLS AWAY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE TOTALLY DRY FORECAST MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT DUE TO UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE
NIGHT...SOME STRATO CUMULUS CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS INDICATE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST INTO THU FOR PATCHY CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT AND WED IN THE COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. COOL AUTUMN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS
5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE COOL REGIME...CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A
FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS TUE NIGHT...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON). WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
WED NIGHT...A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR FROST AND AREAS
OF FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER....IT APPEARS THE SW MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE COLDEST AGAIN WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT ENDED MAY STAY MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY FREEZE ISSUES. TEMPS WILL MODEERATE ON THU...BUT REMAIN BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE 12Z GFS DEPICTS A RATHER
VIGOROUS LOOKING UPPER TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT
INTO FRI...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
HENCE NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE
PERHAPS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ONLY. BEYOND THAT...AN UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWWARD FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA TO OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. BY SUN NIGHT AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME AS IT
EVENTUALLY MIGRATES TO OFF THE SE COAST ON MONDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON
FRIDAY LOOKS TO OVERCOME THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ALLOW FOR NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS. TEMPS WILL THEN
SLOWLY WARM TO ABOVE CLIMO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE AREA AT TIME OF 00Z TAF ISSUANCE...WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHWRS SEEN ON RADAR. THESE CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE MID LVL CIGS OF 10 KFT TO 15 KFT. THERE IS A SHARP EDGE TO
THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON SATELLITE...THAT SHUD PASS THRU ON BACK-EDGE
OF THE MID LVL DISTURBANCE LATE THIS EVENING. FROM THERE...OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING LLVL NW FLOW UPSLOPE CLOUDS ALONG TN/NC
BORDER...SKIES SHUD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT FOG
SHUD DEVELOP NEAR LAKES AND STREAMS AND IN THE MTN VALLEYS. I HAVE
1/2SM VSBY AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK. KAND AND KHKY HAVE A CHANCE OF
SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM NEARBY LAKES...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAF. KCLT/KGSP/KGMU SHUD STAY VFR.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EARLY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS TO WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION/STRONGER
WINDS LOOK TO WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST BY END OF 00Z TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT LIKE WE SAW TODAY...MAINLY
ACRS NC. BASES SHUD BE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES...AND GENERALLY FEW TO
SCT.

OUTLOOK...BLUSTERY AND COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THEN
WARMING THE LATTER PORTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT SEEM TO BE THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN APPARENT AT THIS
TIME...AS AIR WILL DRY AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/TS
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...ARK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 210116
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
916 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK AND LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM...ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO ADD MENTION OF SHWRS ACRS
MUCH OF THE NC PIEDMONT. BASED ON THE LATEST OBS...SEVERAL RAIN
GAGES HAVE REPORTED UP TO 0.05" OF RAIN. THE SHOWERS SEEM TO BE
LOSING INTENSITY AND COVERAGE NOW AS THEY CROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. IN
ANY CASE...SHWRS AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT LATE EVENING
THRU THE OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS LITTLE BIT
OF RAIN WILL INCREASE FOG POTENTIAL...ESP IN THE NC MTNS. I DID NOT
CHANGE THE FOG/VSBY IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 730 PM...THE MAIN BAND OF MID-UPR LVL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE MTNS...WITH A FEW SPOTTY RETURNS ON RADAR. BOTH KAVL
AND K1A5 REPORTED LIGHT RAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY AREAS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE AMTS. I DID TWEAK POPS TO FOLLOW A SLGT CHC AREA WITH THE
MOISTURE BAND INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS THIS EVENING.

AS OF 500 PM...ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO T/TD AND SKY GRIDS HEADING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 245 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH THE FIRST S/W BEING PUSHED INTO EASTERN
KY. THE FIRST WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF CIGS CONSISTING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MODEL PLANE SECTION RH DATA...POINT RH DATA
AND BUFKIT INFORMATION ALL SHOW THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS INSIST THAT OUR NRN MOUNTAINS
COULD STILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...AND WE WILL FOLLOW THAT
COURSE.

MEANWHILE ONCE THAT FIRST BAND OF CLOUDS PASS...AND BEFORE THE NEXT
SURFACE FRONT MAKES IT INTO OUR REGION...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...IN PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC RIVER VALLEYS...NE GA AND THE NW PORTIONS
OF UPSTATE SC. WE WILL ADD FOG TO THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE READINGS OF LAST NIGHT WITH THE PERIOD OF CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING. NICE
PERPENDICULAR LOOK OF THE H85 HEIGHT CONTOURS...RELATIVE TO THE H85
THERMAL PATTERN...SUGGESTS VERY GOOD CROSS CONTOURING...YIELDING
GUSTY WINDS. UPSLOPE FLOW...ALONG WITH A STRONG 2DRY S/W TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL HELP WITH THE GENERATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON COLD AIR CU ELSEWHERE...BUT WOULD BE
SURPRISED IF THEY WERE ABSENT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON OUR MOST RELIABLE MODEL GUIDE SET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE SE STATES IN ITS WAKE WED INTO THU. DEEP LAYER N/NW
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION.
THICKNESSES WILL REBOUND SOME ON THU AS UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS THE LOW TO THE NE PULLS AWAY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE TOTALLY DRY FORECAST MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT DUE TO UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE
NIGHT...SOME STRATO CUMULUS CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS INDICATE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST INTO THU FOR PATCHY CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT AND WED IN THE COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. COOL AUTUMN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS
5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE COOL REGIME...CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A
FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS TUE NIGHT...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON). WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
WED NIGHT...A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR FROST AND AREAS
OF FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER....IT APPEARS THE SW MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE COLDEST AGAIN WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT ENDED MAY STAY MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY FREEZE ISSUES. TEMPS WILL MODEERATE ON THU...BUT REMAIN BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE 12Z GFS DEPICTS A RATHER
VIGOROUS LOOKING UPPER TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT
INTO FRI...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
HENCE NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE
PERHAPS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ONLY. BEYOND THAT...AN UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWWARD FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA TO OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. BY SUN NIGHT AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME AS IT
EVENTUALLY MIGRATES TO OFF THE SE COAST ON MONDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON
FRIDAY LOOKS TO OVERCOME THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ALLOW FOR NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS. TEMPS WILL THEN
SLOWLY WARM TO ABOVE CLIMO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE AREA AT TIME OF 00Z TAF ISSUANCE...WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHWRS SEEN ON RADAR. THESE CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE MID LVL CIGS OF 10 KFT TO 15 KFT. THERE IS A SHARP EDGE TO
THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON SATELLITE...THAT SHUD PASS THRU ON BACK-EDGE
OF THE MID LVL DISTURBANCE LATE THIS EVENING. FROM THERE...OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING LLVL NW FLOW UPSLOPE CLOUDS ALONG TN/NC
BORDER...SKIES SHUD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT FOG
SHUD DEVELOP NEAR LAKES AND STREAMS AND IN THE MTN VALLEYS. I HAVE
1/2SM VSBY AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK. KAND AND KHKY HAVE A CHANCE OF
SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM NEARBY LAKES...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAF. KCLT/KGSP/KGMU SHUD STAY VFR.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EARLY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS TO WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION/STRONGER
WINDS LOOK TO WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST BY END OF 00Z TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT LIKE WE SAW TODAY...MAINLY
ACRS NC. BASES SHUD BE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES...AND GENERALLY FEW TO
SCT.

OUTLOOK...BLUSTERY AND COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THEN
WARMING THE LATTER PORTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT SEEM TO BE THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN APPARENT AT THIS
TIME...AS AIR WILL DRY AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/TS
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...ARK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 202344
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
744 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK AND LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...THE MAIN BAND OF MID-UPR LVL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE MTNS...WITH A FEW SPOTTY RETURNS ON RADAR. BOTH KAVL
AND K1A5 REPORTED LIGHT RAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY AREAS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE AMTS. I DID TWEAK POPS TO FOLLOW A SLGT CHC AREA WITH THE
MOISTURE BAND INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS THIS EVENING.

AS OF 500 PM...ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO T/TD AND SKY GRIDS HEADING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 245 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH THE FIRST S/W BEING PUSHED INTO EASTERN
KY. THE FIRST WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF CIGS CONSISTING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MODEL PLANE SECTION RH DATA...POINT RH DATA
AND BUFKIT INFORMATION ALL SHOW THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS INSIST THAT OUR NRN MOUNTAINS
COULD STILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...AND WE WILL FOLLOW THAT
COURSE.

MEANWHILE ONCE THAT FIRST BAND OF CLOUDS PASS...AND BEFORE THE NEXT
SURFACE FRONT MAKES IT INTO OUR REGION...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...IN PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC RIVER VALLEYS...NE GA AND THE NW PORTIONS
OF UPSTATE SC. WE WILL ADD FOG TO THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE READINGS OF LAST NIGHT WITH THE PERIOD OF CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING. NICE
PERPENDICULAR LOOK OF THE H85 HEIGHT CONTOURS...RELATIVE TO THE H85
THERMAL PATTERN...SUGGESTS VERY GOOD CROSS CONTOURING...YIELDING
GUSTY WINDS. UPSLOPE FLOW...ALONG WITH A STRONG 2DRY S/W TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL HELP WITH THE GENERATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON COLD AIR CU ELSEWHERE...BUT WOULD BE
SURPRISED IF THEY WERE ABSENT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON OUR MOST RELIABLE MODEL GUIDE SET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE SE STATES IN ITS WAKE WED INTO THU. DEEP LAYER N/NW
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION.
THICKNESSES WILL REBOUND SOME ON THU AS UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS THE LOW TO THE NE PULLS AWAY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE TOTALLY DRY FORECAST MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT DUE TO UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE
NIGHT...SOME STRATO CUMULUS CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS INDICATE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST INTO THU FOR PATCHY CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT AND WED IN THE COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. COOL AUTUMN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS
5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE COOL REGIME...CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A
FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS TUE NIGHT...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON). WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
WED NIGHT...A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR FROST AND AREAS
OF FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER....IT APPEARS THE SW MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE COLDEST AGAIN WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT ENDED MAY STAY MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY FREEZE ISSUES. TEMPS WILL MODEERATE ON THU...BUT REMAIN BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE 12Z GFS DEPICTS A RATHER
VIGOROUS LOOKING UPPER TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT
INTO FRI...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
HENCE NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE
PERHAPS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ONLY. BEYOND THAT...AN UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWWARD FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA TO OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. BY SUN NIGHT AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME AS IT
EVENTUALLY MIGRATES TO OFF THE SE COAST ON MONDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON
FRIDAY LOOKS TO OVERCOME THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ALLOW FOR NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS. TEMPS WILL THEN
SLOWLY WARM TO ABOVE CLIMO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE AREA AT TIME OF 00Z TAF ISSUANCE...WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHWRS SEEN ON RADAR. THESE CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE MID LVL CIGS OF 10 KFT TO 15 KFT. THERE IS A SHARP EDGE TO
THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON SATELLITE...THAT SHUD PASS THRU ON BACK-EDGE
OF THE MID LVL DISTURBANCE LATE THIS EVENING. FROM THERE...OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING LLVL NW FLOW UPSLOPE CLOUDS ALONG TN/NC
BORDER...SKIES SHUD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT FOG
SHUD DEVELOP NEAR LAKES AND STREAMS AND IN THE MTN VALLEYS. I HAVE
1/2SM VSBY AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK. KAND AND KHKY HAVE A CHANCE OF
SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM NEARBY LAKES...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAF. KCLT/KGSP/KGMU SHUD STAY VFR.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EARLY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS TO WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION/STRONGER
WINDS LOOK TO WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST BY END OF 00Z TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT LIKE WE SAW TODAY...MAINLY
ACRS NC. BASES SHUD BE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES...AND GENERALLY FEW TO
SCT.

OUTLOOK...BLUSTERY AND COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THEN
WARMING THE LATTER PORTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT SEEM TO BE THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN APPARENT AT THIS
TIME...AS AIR WILL DRY AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/TS
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...ARK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 202344
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
744 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK AND LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...THE MAIN BAND OF MID-UPR LVL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE MTNS...WITH A FEW SPOTTY RETURNS ON RADAR. BOTH KAVL
AND K1A5 REPORTED LIGHT RAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY AREAS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE AMTS. I DID TWEAK POPS TO FOLLOW A SLGT CHC AREA WITH THE
MOISTURE BAND INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS THIS EVENING.

AS OF 500 PM...ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO T/TD AND SKY GRIDS HEADING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 245 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH THE FIRST S/W BEING PUSHED INTO EASTERN
KY. THE FIRST WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF CIGS CONSISTING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MODEL PLANE SECTION RH DATA...POINT RH DATA
AND BUFKIT INFORMATION ALL SHOW THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS INSIST THAT OUR NRN MOUNTAINS
COULD STILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...AND WE WILL FOLLOW THAT
COURSE.

MEANWHILE ONCE THAT FIRST BAND OF CLOUDS PASS...AND BEFORE THE NEXT
SURFACE FRONT MAKES IT INTO OUR REGION...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...IN PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC RIVER VALLEYS...NE GA AND THE NW PORTIONS
OF UPSTATE SC. WE WILL ADD FOG TO THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE READINGS OF LAST NIGHT WITH THE PERIOD OF CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING. NICE
PERPENDICULAR LOOK OF THE H85 HEIGHT CONTOURS...RELATIVE TO THE H85
THERMAL PATTERN...SUGGESTS VERY GOOD CROSS CONTOURING...YIELDING
GUSTY WINDS. UPSLOPE FLOW...ALONG WITH A STRONG 2DRY S/W TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL HELP WITH THE GENERATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON COLD AIR CU ELSEWHERE...BUT WOULD BE
SURPRISED IF THEY WERE ABSENT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON OUR MOST RELIABLE MODEL GUIDE SET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE SE STATES IN ITS WAKE WED INTO THU. DEEP LAYER N/NW
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION.
THICKNESSES WILL REBOUND SOME ON THU AS UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS THE LOW TO THE NE PULLS AWAY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE TOTALLY DRY FORECAST MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT DUE TO UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE
NIGHT...SOME STRATO CUMULUS CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS INDICATE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST INTO THU FOR PATCHY CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT AND WED IN THE COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. COOL AUTUMN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS
5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE COOL REGIME...CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A
FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS TUE NIGHT...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON). WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
WED NIGHT...A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR FROST AND AREAS
OF FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER....IT APPEARS THE SW MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE COLDEST AGAIN WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT ENDED MAY STAY MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY FREEZE ISSUES. TEMPS WILL MODEERATE ON THU...BUT REMAIN BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE 12Z GFS DEPICTS A RATHER
VIGOROUS LOOKING UPPER TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT
INTO FRI...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
HENCE NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE
PERHAPS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ONLY. BEYOND THAT...AN UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWWARD FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA TO OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. BY SUN NIGHT AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME AS IT
EVENTUALLY MIGRATES TO OFF THE SE COAST ON MONDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON
FRIDAY LOOKS TO OVERCOME THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ALLOW FOR NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS. TEMPS WILL THEN
SLOWLY WARM TO ABOVE CLIMO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE AREA AT TIME OF 00Z TAF ISSUANCE...WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHWRS SEEN ON RADAR. THESE CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE MID LVL CIGS OF 10 KFT TO 15 KFT. THERE IS A SHARP EDGE TO
THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON SATELLITE...THAT SHUD PASS THRU ON BACK-EDGE
OF THE MID LVL DISTURBANCE LATE THIS EVENING. FROM THERE...OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING LLVL NW FLOW UPSLOPE CLOUDS ALONG TN/NC
BORDER...SKIES SHUD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT FOG
SHUD DEVELOP NEAR LAKES AND STREAMS AND IN THE MTN VALLEYS. I HAVE
1/2SM VSBY AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK. KAND AND KHKY HAVE A CHANCE OF
SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM NEARBY LAKES...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAF. KCLT/KGSP/KGMU SHUD STAY VFR.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EARLY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS TO WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION/STRONGER
WINDS LOOK TO WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST BY END OF 00Z TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT LIKE WE SAW TODAY...MAINLY
ACRS NC. BASES SHUD BE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES...AND GENERALLY FEW TO
SCT.

OUTLOOK...BLUSTERY AND COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THEN
WARMING THE LATTER PORTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT SEEM TO BE THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN APPARENT AT THIS
TIME...AS AIR WILL DRY AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/TS
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...ARK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 202108
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK AND LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 PM...ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO T/TD AND SKY GRIDS HEADING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 245 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH THE FIRST S/W BEING PUSHED INTO EASTERN
KY. THE FIRST WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF CIGS CONSISTING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MODEL PLANE SECTION RH DATA...POINT RH DATA
AND BUFKIT INFORMATION ALL SHOW THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS INSIST THAT OUR NRN MOUNTAINS
COULD STILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...AND WE WILL FOLLOW THAT
COURSE.

MEANWHILE ONCE THAT FIRST BAND OF CLOUDS PASS...AND BEFORE THE NEXT
SURFACE FRONT MAKES IT INTO OUR REGION...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...IN PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC RIVER VALLEYS...NE GA AND THE NW PORTIONS
OF UPSTATE SC. WE WILL ADD FOG TO THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE READINGS OF LAST NIGHT WITH THE PERIOD OF CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING. NICE
PERPENDICULAR LOOK OF THE H85 HEIGHT CONTOURS...RELATIVE TO THE H85
THERMAL PATTERN...SUGGESTS VERY GOOD CROSS CONTOURING...YIELDING
GUSTY WINDS. UPSLOPE FLOW...ALONG WITH A STRONG 2DRY S/W TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL HELP WITH THE GENERATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON COLD AIR CU ELSEWHERE...BUT WOULD BE
SURPRISED IF THEY WERE ABSENT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON OUR MOST RELIABLE MODEL GUIDE SET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE SE STATES IN ITS WAKE WED INTO THU. DEEP LAYER N/NW
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION.
THICKNESSES WILL REBOUND SOME ON THU AS UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS THE LOW TO THE NE PULLS AWAY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE TOTALLY DRY FORECAST MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT DUE TO UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE
NIGHT...SOME STRATO CUMULUS CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS INDICATE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST INTO THU FOR PATCHY CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT AND WED IN THE COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. COOL AUTUMN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS
5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE COOL REGIME...CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A
FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS TUE NIGHT...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON). WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
WED NIGHT...A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR FROST AND AREAS
OF FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER....IT APPEARS THE SW MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE COLDEST AGAIN WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT ENDED MAY STAY MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY FREEZE ISSUES. TEMPS WILL MODEERATE ON THU...BUT REMAIN BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE 12Z GFS DEPICTS A RATHER
VIGOROUS LOOKING UPPER TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT
INTO FRI...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
HENCE NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE
PERHAPS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ONLY. BEYOND THAT...AN UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWWARD FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA TO OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. BY SUN NIGHT AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME AS IT
EVENTUALLY MIGRATES TO OFF THE SE COAST ON MONDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON
FRIDAY LOOKS TO OVERCOME THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ALLOW FOR NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS. TEMPS WILL THEN
SLOWLY WARM TO ABOVE CLIMO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...ANY LEFT OVER CU WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNDOWN
AROUND THE CLT AIRFIELD. MEANWHILE...THE FIRST S/W IN A DEVELOPING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A BAND OF
BOTH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE NOTED. ONCE THEY PASS...
THERE WILL BE A PAUSE BEFORE THE FRONTAL PATTERN (SURFACE FRONT)
CROSSES THE FIELD TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME SCT COLD
AIR STRATO CU CLOUDS...AROUND 3K...AND AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. WE
WOULD EXPECT FOR THE LATER HALF OF TUESDAY FOR SOME GUSTY NWLY WINDS
TO MATERIALIZE. THE FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED PACKETS OF ENERGY...
SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED THEREFORE NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

ELSEHWERE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS A FEW
HOURS EARLIER...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LATER TUESDAY MORNING IN PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE OF SC. WE DO CARRY A BRIEF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION AT AVL FOR A FEW PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY. THIS IS BEFORE
THE CAA KICKS IN...AND AFTER THE FIRST WAVE OF CLOUDS MOVE BY. IT
APPEARS POINTS TO THE SOUTH HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...BLUSTERY AND COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THEN
WARMING THE LATER PORTIONS. GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT SEEM
TO BE THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN APPARENT AT THIS TIME.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/TS
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...TS








000
FXUS62 KGSP 202108
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK AND LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 PM...ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO T/TD AND SKY GRIDS HEADING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 245 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH THE FIRST S/W BEING PUSHED INTO EASTERN
KY. THE FIRST WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF CIGS CONSISTING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MODEL PLANE SECTION RH DATA...POINT RH DATA
AND BUFKIT INFORMATION ALL SHOW THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS INSIST THAT OUR NRN MOUNTAINS
COULD STILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...AND WE WILL FOLLOW THAT
COURSE.

MEANWHILE ONCE THAT FIRST BAND OF CLOUDS PASS...AND BEFORE THE NEXT
SURFACE FRONT MAKES IT INTO OUR REGION...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...IN PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC RIVER VALLEYS...NE GA AND THE NW PORTIONS
OF UPSTATE SC. WE WILL ADD FOG TO THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE READINGS OF LAST NIGHT WITH THE PERIOD OF CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING. NICE
PERPENDICULAR LOOK OF THE H85 HEIGHT CONTOURS...RELATIVE TO THE H85
THERMAL PATTERN...SUGGESTS VERY GOOD CROSS CONTOURING...YIELDING
GUSTY WINDS. UPSLOPE FLOW...ALONG WITH A STRONG 2DRY S/W TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL HELP WITH THE GENERATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON COLD AIR CU ELSEWHERE...BUT WOULD BE
SURPRISED IF THEY WERE ABSENT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON OUR MOST RELIABLE MODEL GUIDE SET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE SE STATES IN ITS WAKE WED INTO THU. DEEP LAYER N/NW
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION.
THICKNESSES WILL REBOUND SOME ON THU AS UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS THE LOW TO THE NE PULLS AWAY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE TOTALLY DRY FORECAST MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT DUE TO UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE
NIGHT...SOME STRATO CUMULUS CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS INDICATE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST INTO THU FOR PATCHY CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT AND WED IN THE COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. COOL AUTUMN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS
5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE COOL REGIME...CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A
FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS TUE NIGHT...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON). WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
WED NIGHT...A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR FROST AND AREAS
OF FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER....IT APPEARS THE SW MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE COLDEST AGAIN WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT ENDED MAY STAY MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY FREEZE ISSUES. TEMPS WILL MODEERATE ON THU...BUT REMAIN BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE 12Z GFS DEPICTS A RATHER
VIGOROUS LOOKING UPPER TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT
INTO FRI...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
HENCE NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE
PERHAPS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ONLY. BEYOND THAT...AN UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWWARD FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA TO OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. BY SUN NIGHT AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME AS IT
EVENTUALLY MIGRATES TO OFF THE SE COAST ON MONDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON
FRIDAY LOOKS TO OVERCOME THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ALLOW FOR NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS. TEMPS WILL THEN
SLOWLY WARM TO ABOVE CLIMO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...ANY LEFT OVER CU WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNDOWN
AROUND THE CLT AIRFIELD. MEANWHILE...THE FIRST S/W IN A DEVELOPING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A BAND OF
BOTH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE NOTED. ONCE THEY PASS...
THERE WILL BE A PAUSE BEFORE THE FRONTAL PATTERN (SURFACE FRONT)
CROSSES THE FIELD TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME SCT COLD
AIR STRATO CU CLOUDS...AROUND 3K...AND AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. WE
WOULD EXPECT FOR THE LATER HALF OF TUESDAY FOR SOME GUSTY NWLY WINDS
TO MATERIALIZE. THE FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED PACKETS OF ENERGY...
SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED THEREFORE NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

ELSEHWERE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS A FEW
HOURS EARLIER...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LATER TUESDAY MORNING IN PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE OF SC. WE DO CARRY A BRIEF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION AT AVL FOR A FEW PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY. THIS IS BEFORE
THE CAA KICKS IN...AND AFTER THE FIRST WAVE OF CLOUDS MOVE BY. IT
APPEARS POINTS TO THE SOUTH HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...BLUSTERY AND COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THEN
WARMING THE LATER PORTIONS. GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT SEEM
TO BE THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN APPARENT AT THIS TIME.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/TS
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...TS







000
FXUS62 KGSP 201847
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK AND LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH THE FIRST S/W BEING PUSHED INTO EASTERN
KY. THE FIRST WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF CIGS CONSISTING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MODEL PLANE SECTION RH DATA...POINT RH DATA
AND BUFKIT INFORMATION ALL SHOW THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS INSIST THAT OUR NRN MOUNTAINS
COULD STILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...AND WE WILL FOLLOW THAT
COURSE.

MEANWHILE ONCE THAT FIRST BAND OF CLOUDS PASS...AND BEFORE THE NEXT
SURFACE FRONT MAKES IT INTO OUR REGION...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...IN PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC RIVER VALLEYS...NE GA AND THE NW PORTIONS OF
UPSTATE SC. WE WILL ADD FOG TO THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE READINGS OF LAST NIGHT WITH THE PERIOD OF CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING. NICE
PERPENDICULAR LOOK OF THE H85 HEIGHT CONTOURS...RELATIVE TO THE H85
THERMAL PATTERN...SUGGESTS VERY GOOD CROSS CONTOURING...YIELDING
GUSTY WINDS. UPSLOPE FLOW...ALONG WITH A STRONG 2DRY S/W TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL HELP WITH THE GENERATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ON NOT TO KEEN ON COLD AIR CU ELSEWHERE...BUT WOULD BE
SURPRISED IF THEY WERE ABSENT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON OUR MOST RELIABLE MODEL GUIDE SET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE SE STATES IN ITS WAKE WED INTO THU. DEEP LAYER N/NW
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION.
THICKNESSES WILL REBOUND SOME ON THU AS UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS THE LOW TO THE NE PULLS AWAY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE TOTALLY DRY FORECAST MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT DUE TO UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE
NIGHT...SOME STRATO CUMULUS CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS INDICATE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST INTO THU FOR PATCHY CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT AND WED IN THE COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. COOL AUTUMN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS
5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE COOL REGIME...CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A
FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS TUE NIGHT...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON). WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
WED NIGHT...A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR FROST AND AREAS
OF FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER....IT APPEARS THE SW MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE COLDEST AGAIN WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT ENDED MAY STAY MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY FREEZE ISSUES. TEMPS WILL MODEERATE ON THU...BUT REMAIN BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE 12Z GFS DEPICTS A RATHER
VIGOROUS LOOKING UPPER TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT
INTO FRI...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
HENCE NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE
PERHAPS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ONLY. BEYOND THAT...AN UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWWARD FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA TO OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. BY SUN NIGHT AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME AS IT
EVENTUALLY MIGRATES TO OFF THE SE COAST ON MONDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON
FRIDAY LOOKS TO OVERCOME THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ALLOW FOR NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS. TEMPS WILL THEN
SLOWLY WARM TO ABOVE CLIMO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...ANY LEFT OVER CU WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNDOWN
AROUND THE CLT AIRFIELD. MEANWHILE...THE FIRST S/W IN A DEVELOPING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A BAND OF
BOTH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE NOTED. ONCE THEY PASS...
THERE WILL BE A PAUSE BEFORE THE FRONTAL PATTERN (SURFACE FRONT)
CROSSES THE FIELD TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME SCT COLD
AIR STRATO CU CLOUDS...AROUND 3K...AND AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. WE
WOULD EXPECT FOR THE LATER HALF OF TUESDAY FOR SOME GUSTY NWLY WINDS
TO MATERIALIZE. THE FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED PACKETS OF ENERGY...
SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED THEREFORE NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

ELSEHWERE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS A FEW
HOURS EARLIER...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LATER TUESDAY MORNING IN PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE OF SC. WE DO CARRY A BRIEF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION AT AVL FOR A FEW PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY. THIS IS BEFORE
THE CAA KICKS IN...AND AFTER THE FIRST WAVE OF CLOUDS MOVE BY. IT
APPEARS POINTS TO THE SOUTH HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...BLUSTERY AND COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THEN
WARMING THE LATER PORTIONS. GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT SEEM
TO BE THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN APPARENT AT THIS TIME.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...TS
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...TS








000
FXUS62 KGSP 201847
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK AND LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH THE FIRST S/W BEING PUSHED INTO EASTERN
KY. THE FIRST WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF CIGS CONSISTING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MODEL PLANE SECTION RH DATA...POINT RH DATA
AND BUFKIT INFORMATION ALL SHOW THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS INSIST THAT OUR NRN MOUNTAINS
COULD STILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...AND WE WILL FOLLOW THAT
COURSE.

MEANWHILE ONCE THAT FIRST BAND OF CLOUDS PASS...AND BEFORE THE NEXT
SURFACE FRONT MAKES IT INTO OUR REGION...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...IN PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC RIVER VALLEYS...NE GA AND THE NW PORTIONS OF
UPSTATE SC. WE WILL ADD FOG TO THIS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE READINGS OF LAST NIGHT WITH THE PERIOD OF CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING. NICE
PERPENDICULAR LOOK OF THE H85 HEIGHT CONTOURS...RELATIVE TO THE H85
THERMAL PATTERN...SUGGESTS VERY GOOD CROSS CONTOURING...YIELDING
GUSTY WINDS. UPSLOPE FLOW...ALONG WITH A STRONG 2DRY S/W TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL HELP WITH THE GENERATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ON NOT TO KEEN ON COLD AIR CU ELSEWHERE...BUT WOULD BE
SURPRISED IF THEY WERE ABSENT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON OUR MOST RELIABLE MODEL GUIDE SET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE SE STATES IN ITS WAKE WED INTO THU. DEEP LAYER N/NW
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION.
THICKNESSES WILL REBOUND SOME ON THU AS UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS THE LOW TO THE NE PULLS AWAY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE TOTALLY DRY FORECAST MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT DUE TO UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE
NIGHT...SOME STRATO CUMULUS CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS INDICATE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST INTO THU FOR PATCHY CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT AND WED IN THE COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. COOL AUTUMN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS
5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE COOL REGIME...CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A
FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS TUE NIGHT...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON). WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
WED NIGHT...A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR FROST AND AREAS
OF FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER....IT APPEARS THE SW MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE COLDEST AGAIN WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT ENDED MAY STAY MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY FREEZE ISSUES. TEMPS WILL MODEERATE ON THU...BUT REMAIN BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE 12Z GFS DEPICTS A RATHER
VIGOROUS LOOKING UPPER TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT
INTO FRI...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
HENCE NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE
PERHAPS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ONLY. BEYOND THAT...AN UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWWARD FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA TO OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. BY SUN NIGHT AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME AS IT
EVENTUALLY MIGRATES TO OFF THE SE COAST ON MONDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON
FRIDAY LOOKS TO OVERCOME THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ALLOW FOR NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS. TEMPS WILL THEN
SLOWLY WARM TO ABOVE CLIMO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...ANY LEFT OVER CU WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNDOWN
AROUND THE CLT AIRFIELD. MEANWHILE...THE FIRST S/W IN A DEVELOPING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A BAND OF
BOTH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE NOTED. ONCE THEY PASS...
THERE WILL BE A PAUSE BEFORE THE FRONTAL PATTERN (SURFACE FRONT)
CROSSES THE FIELD TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME SCT COLD
AIR STRATO CU CLOUDS...AROUND 3K...AND AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. WE
WOULD EXPECT FOR THE LATER HALF OF TUESDAY FOR SOME GUSTY NWLY WINDS
TO MATERIALIZE. THE FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED PACKETS OF ENERGY...
SHOULD BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED THEREFORE NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

ELSEHWERE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS A FEW
HOURS EARLIER...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LATER TUESDAY MORNING IN PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE OF SC. WE DO CARRY A BRIEF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION AT AVL FOR A FEW PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY. THIS IS BEFORE
THE CAA KICKS IN...AND AFTER THE FIRST WAVE OF CLOUDS MOVE BY. IT
APPEARS POINTS TO THE SOUTH HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...BLUSTERY AND COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THEN
WARMING THE LATER PORTIONS. GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT SEEM
TO BE THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN APPARENT AT THIS TIME.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...TS
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...TS







000
FXUS62 KGSP 201755
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1055 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CU FIELD DEVELOPING FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC. OTHERWISE SOME PATCHY CI HERE AND THERE.
WE DO NOT SEE MUCH NEED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTEMENTS IN THE
FORECAST OTHER TO MENTION HAVE A BIT MORE CLOUDS WHERE THE CU IS
BECOMING MORE OPAQUE. OTHERWISE TEMPERARATURES STILL ON TARGET.

MID MORNING DISUSSION...
OUR MID MORNING UPDATE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE REST OF
THE WESTERN NC RIVER VALLEYS WHERE CIRRUS CLOUDS EXITING AND FOG WAS
ABLE TO DEVELOP. MOST OF THAT FOG IS BURNING OFF...WITH THE LAST IN
THE LITTLE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...AND THAT SHOULD BE GONE SOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH OUR
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOLLOWING A DECENT TREND.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORNING UPDATE...WITH THICKER CI CROSSING OVERHEAD...TEMPS AND TD/S
ARE REMAINING ABOVE FR LEVELS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...BUT ISOL AREAS
COULD SEE LIGHT FR THROUGH DAYBREAK. NO SIGFNT CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE GRIDS.

430 AM EDT UPDATE...PASSING BKN/OVC CI FIELD CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY
THE NRN ZONES THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH CALM CONDS...TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED A COUPLE DEGREES F ABOVE THE FCST CURVE ACROSS THE FB
VALLEY AND OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE. THUS...THE HR/LY TEMP
GRIDS WERE ADJ UPWARD A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD FR FORMATION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LOOKS MINIMAL PER THE
LATEST MESONET T/TD DATA...HOWEVER PATCHY DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE AND THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 245 AM EDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WX PATTERN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS WITH NOMINAL MIXING IN WEAK LLVL
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROF AXIS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...YET FEW/SCT CI WILL LINGER WITH FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU PROBABLE AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND
RIGHT IN LINE WITH EXPECTED LLVL THICKNESS VALUES.

WITH THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE INCREASE IN SW/LY
TEMP/MOIST FLUX MON WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER MINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
THIS WILL OFFSET MOST FG AND FR THREATS...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND
MOS GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE A GOOD PROB FOR LOW VSBY ACROSS THE
FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE TN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AN INCREASE IN
STCU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NC MTN SPINE AND NRN MTNS OVERNIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES OUT OF THE GLAKE REGION AND THIS SHOULD BE ENUF
TO DIFFUSE VSBY CONCERNS OVER THESE AREAS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MECH
LIFT AND SOME ULVL DYNAMICAL AIDE TO ALLOW FOR -SHRA AND SPRINKLES
WHICH IS COVERED WITH ISOL POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN FOUR NC MTN
COUNTIES. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS BY A
COUPLE CATS OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL DIG STRONGLY OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO OUR AREA
LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST THAT WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
PROTRACTED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/NORTH GEORGIA INTO
LATE WEEK. A PERIOD OF NW FLOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS UPSLOPE MOISTURE DEEPENS BRIEFLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...EVEN THEN TENN BORDER POPS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 30 PERCENT OR SO. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BY EARLY WED...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LINGERING CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CLASSIC COOL/MOSTLY CLEAR AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY
GIVING WAY TO WEATHER THAT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR
WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS...
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN TYPICALLY INACTIVE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY
BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
MODIFY CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RISE DOWNSTREAM
OF DAMPENING SHORT WAVE RIDGE. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST PASSAGE OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND COOL US DOWN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSUE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND RETURN FLOW WAS
HELPING SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY MAKE A RUN
AT THE CLT AIRFIELD...BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONT...THE MODELS WERE ADVERTISING A BAND OF AC/CI
ZIPPING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND
INSERTED INTO SAID FORECAST.

WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHERLY...AND WE BUMPED THEM UP A NOTCH...BASED ON
SOUNDING DATA. THOSE SHOULD RELAX AT SUNDOWN.

FOLLOWING THE AC/CI MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND BEFORE THE LOW
CLOUDS CAN START IN THE CAA PATTERN WITH THE NEXT FRONT...THERE MAY
BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS/THE NW
UPSTATE OF SC/AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

OUTLOOK...A ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  89%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK/TS
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK














000
FXUS62 KGSP 201755
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1055 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CU FIELD DEVELOPING FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC. OTHERWISE SOME PATCHY CI HERE AND THERE.
WE DO NOT SEE MUCH NEED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTEMENTS IN THE
FORECAST OTHER TO MENTION HAVE A BIT MORE CLOUDS WHERE THE CU IS
BECOMING MORE OPAQUE. OTHERWISE TEMPERARATURES STILL ON TARGET.

MID MORNING DISUSSION...
OUR MID MORNING UPDATE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE REST OF
THE WESTERN NC RIVER VALLEYS WHERE CIRRUS CLOUDS EXITING AND FOG WAS
ABLE TO DEVELOP. MOST OF THAT FOG IS BURNING OFF...WITH THE LAST IN
THE LITTLE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...AND THAT SHOULD BE GONE SOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH OUR
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOLLOWING A DECENT TREND.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORNING UPDATE...WITH THICKER CI CROSSING OVERHEAD...TEMPS AND TD/S
ARE REMAINING ABOVE FR LEVELS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...BUT ISOL AREAS
COULD SEE LIGHT FR THROUGH DAYBREAK. NO SIGFNT CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE GRIDS.

430 AM EDT UPDATE...PASSING BKN/OVC CI FIELD CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY
THE NRN ZONES THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH CALM CONDS...TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED A COUPLE DEGREES F ABOVE THE FCST CURVE ACROSS THE FB
VALLEY AND OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE. THUS...THE HR/LY TEMP
GRIDS WERE ADJ UPWARD A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD FR FORMATION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LOOKS MINIMAL PER THE
LATEST MESONET T/TD DATA...HOWEVER PATCHY DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE AND THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 245 AM EDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WX PATTERN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS WITH NOMINAL MIXING IN WEAK LLVL
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROF AXIS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...YET FEW/SCT CI WILL LINGER WITH FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU PROBABLE AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND
RIGHT IN LINE WITH EXPECTED LLVL THICKNESS VALUES.

WITH THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE INCREASE IN SW/LY
TEMP/MOIST FLUX MON WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER MINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
THIS WILL OFFSET MOST FG AND FR THREATS...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND
MOS GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE A GOOD PROB FOR LOW VSBY ACROSS THE
FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE TN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AN INCREASE IN
STCU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NC MTN SPINE AND NRN MTNS OVERNIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES OUT OF THE GLAKE REGION AND THIS SHOULD BE ENUF
TO DIFFUSE VSBY CONCERNS OVER THESE AREAS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MECH
LIFT AND SOME ULVL DYNAMICAL AIDE TO ALLOW FOR -SHRA AND SPRINKLES
WHICH IS COVERED WITH ISOL POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN FOUR NC MTN
COUNTIES. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS BY A
COUPLE CATS OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL DIG STRONGLY OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO OUR AREA
LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST THAT WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
PROTRACTED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/NORTH GEORGIA INTO
LATE WEEK. A PERIOD OF NW FLOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS UPSLOPE MOISTURE DEEPENS BRIEFLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...EVEN THEN TENN BORDER POPS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 30 PERCENT OR SO. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BY EARLY WED...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LINGERING CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CLASSIC COOL/MOSTLY CLEAR AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY
GIVING WAY TO WEATHER THAT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR
WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS...
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN TYPICALLY INACTIVE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY
BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
MODIFY CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RISE DOWNSTREAM
OF DAMPENING SHORT WAVE RIDGE. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST PASSAGE OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND COOL US DOWN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSUE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND RETURN FLOW WAS
HELPING SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY MAKE A RUN
AT THE CLT AIRFIELD...BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONT...THE MODELS WERE ADVERTISING A BAND OF AC/CI
ZIPPING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND
INSERTED INTO SAID FORECAST.

WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHERLY...AND WE BUMPED THEM UP A NOTCH...BASED ON
SOUNDING DATA. THOSE SHOULD RELAX AT SUNDOWN.

FOLLOWING THE AC/CI MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND BEFORE THE LOW
CLOUDS CAN START IN THE CAA PATTERN WITH THE NEXT FRONT...THERE MAY
BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS/THE NW
UPSTATE OF SC/AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

OUTLOOK...A ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  89%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK/TS
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK













000
FXUS62 KGSP 201457
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1055 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OUR MID MORNING UPDATE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE REST OF
THE WESTERN NC RIVER VALLEYS WHERE CIRRUS CLOUDS EXITING AND FOG WAS
ABLE TO DEVELOP. MOST OF THAT FOG IS BURNING OFF...WITH THE LAST IN
THE LITTLE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...AND THAT SHOULD BE GONE SOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH OUR
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOLLOWING A DECENT TREND.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORNING UPDATE...WITH THICKER CI CROSSING OVERHEAD...TEMPS AND TD/S
ARE REMAINING ABOVE FR LEVELS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...BUT ISOL AREAS
COULD SEE LIGHT FR THROUGH DAYBREAK. NO SIGFNT CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE GRIDS.

430 AM EDT UPDATE...PASSING BKN/OVC CI FIELD CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY
THE NRN ZONES THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH CALM CONDS...TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED A COUPLE DEGREES F ABOVE THE FCST CURVE ACROSS THE FB
VALLEY AND OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE. THUS...THE HR/LY TEMP
GRIDS WERE ADJ UPWARD A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD FR FORMATION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LOOKS MINIMAL PER THE
LATEST MESONET T/TD DATA...HOWEVER PATCHY DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE AND THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 245 AM EDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WX PATTERN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS WITH NOMINAL MIXING IN WEAK LLVL
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROF AXIS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...YET FEW/SCT CI WILL LINGER WITH FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU PROBABLE AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND
RIGHT IN LINE WITH EXPECTED LLVL THICKNESS VALUES.

WITH THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE INCREASE IN SW/LY
TEMP/MOIST FLUX MON WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER MINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
THIS WILL OFFSET MOST FG AND FR THREATS...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND
MOS GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE A GOOD PROB FOR LOW VSBY ACROSS THE
FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE TN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AN INCREASE IN
STCU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NC MTN SPINE AND NRN MTNS OVERNIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES OUT OF THE GLAKE REGION AND THIS SHOULD BE ENUF
TO DIFFUSE VSBY CONCERNS OVER THESE AREAS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MECH
LIFT AND SOME ULVL DYNAMICAL AIDE TO ALLOW FOR -SHRA AND SPRINKLES
WHICH IS COVERED WITH ISOL POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN FOUR NC MTN
COUNTIES. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS BY A
COUPLE CATS OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL DIG STRONGLY OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO OUR AREA
LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST THAT WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
PROTRACTED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/NORTH GEORGIA INTO
LATE WEEK. A PERIOD OF NW FLOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS UPSLOPE MOISTURE DEEPENS BRIEFLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...EVEN THEN TENN BORDER POPS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 30 PERCENT OR SO. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BY EARLY WED...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LINGERING CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CLASSIC COOL/MOSTLY CLEAR AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY
GIVING WAY TO WEATHER THAT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR
WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS...
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN TYPICALLY INACTIVE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY
BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
MODIFY CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RISE DOWNSTREAM
OF DAMPENING SHORT WAVE RIDGE. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST PASSAGE OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND COOL US DOWN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SFC HIGH PRESURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS MORNING MAKING FOR CALM TO LIGHT S-SWLY WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING
IN WEAK FLOW WILL BE HAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SFC WIND
DIRECTIONS BECOMING DEFINED SSW/LY TO SW/LY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT SOME POINT DATA I DID MENTION SOME SCT ALTO
CUMULULS AT CHARLOTTE TONIGHT...PER NEW MODEL DATA.

MEANWHILE A LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHIFT TO W/LY IS POSSIBLE WITH
CROSSING ULVL TROF AXIS...BUT AGAIN WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW END.
PERIODS OF MFVR/IFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KAVL AND KHKY AROUND
DAYBREAK TUE.

OUTLOOK...A ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  89%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK/TS
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK










000
FXUS62 KGSP 201457
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1055 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OUR MID MORNING UPDATE WAS TO ADD FOG FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE REST OF
THE WESTERN NC RIVER VALLEYS WHERE CIRRUS CLOUDS EXITING AND FOG WAS
ABLE TO DEVELOP. MOST OF THAT FOG IS BURNING OFF...WITH THE LAST IN
THE LITTLE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...AND THAT SHOULD BE GONE SOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH OUR
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOLLOWING A DECENT TREND.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORNING UPDATE...WITH THICKER CI CROSSING OVERHEAD...TEMPS AND TD/S
ARE REMAINING ABOVE FR LEVELS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...BUT ISOL AREAS
COULD SEE LIGHT FR THROUGH DAYBREAK. NO SIGFNT CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE GRIDS.

430 AM EDT UPDATE...PASSING BKN/OVC CI FIELD CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY
THE NRN ZONES THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH CALM CONDS...TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED A COUPLE DEGREES F ABOVE THE FCST CURVE ACROSS THE FB
VALLEY AND OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE. THUS...THE HR/LY TEMP
GRIDS WERE ADJ UPWARD A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD FR FORMATION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LOOKS MINIMAL PER THE
LATEST MESONET T/TD DATA...HOWEVER PATCHY DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE AND THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 245 AM EDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WX PATTERN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS WITH NOMINAL MIXING IN WEAK LLVL
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROF AXIS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...YET FEW/SCT CI WILL LINGER WITH FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU PROBABLE AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND
RIGHT IN LINE WITH EXPECTED LLVL THICKNESS VALUES.

WITH THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE INCREASE IN SW/LY
TEMP/MOIST FLUX MON WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER MINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
THIS WILL OFFSET MOST FG AND FR THREATS...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND
MOS GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE A GOOD PROB FOR LOW VSBY ACROSS THE
FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE TN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AN INCREASE IN
STCU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NC MTN SPINE AND NRN MTNS OVERNIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES OUT OF THE GLAKE REGION AND THIS SHOULD BE ENUF
TO DIFFUSE VSBY CONCERNS OVER THESE AREAS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MECH
LIFT AND SOME ULVL DYNAMICAL AIDE TO ALLOW FOR -SHRA AND SPRINKLES
WHICH IS COVERED WITH ISOL POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN FOUR NC MTN
COUNTIES. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS BY A
COUPLE CATS OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL DIG STRONGLY OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO OUR AREA
LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST THAT WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
PROTRACTED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/NORTH GEORGIA INTO
LATE WEEK. A PERIOD OF NW FLOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS UPSLOPE MOISTURE DEEPENS BRIEFLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...EVEN THEN TENN BORDER POPS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 30 PERCENT OR SO. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BY EARLY WED...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LINGERING CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CLASSIC COOL/MOSTLY CLEAR AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY
GIVING WAY TO WEATHER THAT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR
WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS...
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN TYPICALLY INACTIVE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY
BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
MODIFY CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RISE DOWNSTREAM
OF DAMPENING SHORT WAVE RIDGE. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST PASSAGE OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND COOL US DOWN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SFC HIGH PRESURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS MORNING MAKING FOR CALM TO LIGHT S-SWLY WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING
IN WEAK FLOW WILL BE HAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SFC WIND
DIRECTIONS BECOMING DEFINED SSW/LY TO SW/LY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT SOME POINT DATA I DID MENTION SOME SCT ALTO
CUMULULS AT CHARLOTTE TONIGHT...PER NEW MODEL DATA.

MEANWHILE A LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHIFT TO W/LY IS POSSIBLE WITH
CROSSING ULVL TROF AXIS...BUT AGAIN WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW END.
PERIODS OF MFVR/IFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KAVL AND KHKY AROUND
DAYBREAK TUE.

OUTLOOK...A ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  89%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK/TS
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK











000
FXUS62 KGSP 201028
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
628 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING UPDATE...WITH THICKER CI CROSSING OVERHEAD...TEMPS AND TD/S
ARE REMAINING ABOVE FR LEVELS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...BUT ISOL AREAS
COULD SEE LIGHT FR THROUGH DAYBREAK. NO SIGFNT CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE GRIDS.

430 AM EDT UPDATE...PASSING BKN/OVC CI FIELD CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY
THE NRN ZONES THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH CALM CONDS...TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED A COUPLE DEGREES F ABOVE THE FCST CURVE ACROSS THE FB
VALLEY AND OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE. THUS...THE HR/LY TEMP
GRIDS WERE ADJ UPWARD A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD FR FORMATION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LOOKS MINIMAL PER THE
LATEST MESONET T/TD DATA...HOWEVER PATCHY DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE AND THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 245 AM EDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WX PATTERN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS WITH NOMINAL MIXING IN WEAK LLVL
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROF AXIS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...YET FEW/SCT CI WILL LINGER WITH FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU PROBABLE AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND
RIGHT IN LINE WITH EXPECTED LLVL THICKNESS VALUES.

WITH THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE INCREASE IN SW/LY
TEMP/MOIST FLUX MON WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER MINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
THIS WILL OFFSET MOST FG AND FR THREATS...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND
MOS GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE A GOOD PROB FOR LOW VSBY ACROSS THE
FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE TN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AN INCREASE IN
STCU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NC MTN SPINE AND NRN MTNS OVERNIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES OUT OF THE GLAKE REGION AND THIS SHOULD BE ENUF
TO DIFFUSE VSBY CONCERNS OVER THESE AREAS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MECH
LIFT AND SOME ULVL DYNAMICAL AIDE TO ALLOW FOR -SHRA AND SPRINKLES
WHICH IS COVERED WITH ISOL POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN FOUR NC MTN
COUNTIES. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS BY A
COUPLE CATS OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL DIG STRONGLY OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO OUR AREA
LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST THAT WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
PROTRACTED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/NORTH GEORGIA INTO
LATE WEEK. A PERIOD OF NW FLOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS UPSLOPE MOISTURE DEEPENS BRIEFLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...EVEN THEN TENN BORDER POPS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 30 PERCENT OR SO. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BY EARLY WED...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LINGERING CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CLASSIC COOL/MOSTLY CLEAR AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY
GIVING WAY TO WEATHER THAT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR
WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS...
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN TYPICALLY INACTIVE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY
BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
MODIFY CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RISE DOWNSTREAM
OF DAMPENING SHORT WAVE RIDGE. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST PASSAGE OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND COOL US DOWN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SFC HIPRES CONTINUES TO CENTER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR CALM WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING IN WEAK FLOW WILL BE HAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SFC WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMING
DEFINED SSW/LY TO SW/LY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS
EAST. A LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHIFT TO W/LY IS POSSIBLE WITH
CROSSING ULVL TROF AXIS...BUT AGAIN WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW END.
PERIODS OF MFVR/IFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KAVL AND KHKY AROUND
DAYBREAK TUE.

OUTLOOK...A ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  89%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 201028
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
628 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING UPDATE...WITH THICKER CI CROSSING OVERHEAD...TEMPS AND TD/S
ARE REMAINING ABOVE FR LEVELS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...BUT ISOL AREAS
COULD SEE LIGHT FR THROUGH DAYBREAK. NO SIGFNT CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE GRIDS.

430 AM EDT UPDATE...PASSING BKN/OVC CI FIELD CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY
THE NRN ZONES THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH CALM CONDS...TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED A COUPLE DEGREES F ABOVE THE FCST CURVE ACROSS THE FB
VALLEY AND OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE. THUS...THE HR/LY TEMP
GRIDS WERE ADJ UPWARD A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD FR FORMATION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LOOKS MINIMAL PER THE
LATEST MESONET T/TD DATA...HOWEVER PATCHY DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE AND THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 245 AM EDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WX PATTERN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS WITH NOMINAL MIXING IN WEAK LLVL
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROF AXIS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...YET FEW/SCT CI WILL LINGER WITH FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU PROBABLE AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND
RIGHT IN LINE WITH EXPECTED LLVL THICKNESS VALUES.

WITH THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE INCREASE IN SW/LY
TEMP/MOIST FLUX MON WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER MINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
THIS WILL OFFSET MOST FG AND FR THREATS...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND
MOS GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE A GOOD PROB FOR LOW VSBY ACROSS THE
FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE TN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AN INCREASE IN
STCU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NC MTN SPINE AND NRN MTNS OVERNIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES OUT OF THE GLAKE REGION AND THIS SHOULD BE ENUF
TO DIFFUSE VSBY CONCERNS OVER THESE AREAS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MECH
LIFT AND SOME ULVL DYNAMICAL AIDE TO ALLOW FOR -SHRA AND SPRINKLES
WHICH IS COVERED WITH ISOL POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN FOUR NC MTN
COUNTIES. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS BY A
COUPLE CATS OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL DIG STRONGLY OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO OUR AREA
LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST THAT WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
PROTRACTED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/NORTH GEORGIA INTO
LATE WEEK. A PERIOD OF NW FLOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS UPSLOPE MOISTURE DEEPENS BRIEFLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...EVEN THEN TENN BORDER POPS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 30 PERCENT OR SO. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BY EARLY WED...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LINGERING CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CLASSIC COOL/MOSTLY CLEAR AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY
GIVING WAY TO WEATHER THAT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR
WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS...
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN TYPICALLY INACTIVE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY
BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
MODIFY CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RISE DOWNSTREAM
OF DAMPENING SHORT WAVE RIDGE. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST PASSAGE OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND COOL US DOWN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SFC HIPRES CONTINUES TO CENTER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR CALM WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING IN WEAK FLOW WILL BE HAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SFC WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMING
DEFINED SSW/LY TO SW/LY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS
EAST. A LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHIFT TO W/LY IS POSSIBLE WITH
CROSSING ULVL TROF AXIS...BUT AGAIN WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW END.
PERIODS OF MFVR/IFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KAVL AND KHKY AROUND
DAYBREAK TUE.

OUTLOOK...A ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  89%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 200855
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
455 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...PASSING BKN/OVC CI FIELD CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY
THE NRN ZONES THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH CALM CONDS...TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED A COUPLE DEGREES F ABOVE THE FCST CURVE ACROSS THE FB
VALLEY AND OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE. THUS...THE HR/LY TEMP
GRIDS WERE ADJ UPWARD A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD FR FORMATION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LOOKS MINIMAL PER THE
LATEST MESONET T/TD DATA...HOWEVER PATCHY DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE AND THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 245 AM EDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WX PATTERN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS WITH NOMINAL MIXING IN WEAK LLVL
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROF AXIS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...YET FEW/SCT CI WILL LINGER WITH FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU PROBABLE AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND
RIGHT IN LINE WITH EXPECTED LLVL THICKNESS VALUES.

WITH THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE INCREASE IN SW/LY
TEMP/MOIST FLUX MON WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER MINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
THIS WILL OFFSET MOST FG AND FR THREATS...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND
MOS GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE A GOOD PROB FOR LOW VSBY ACROSS THE
FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE TN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AN INCREASE IN
STCU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NC MTN SPINE AND NRN MTNS OVERNIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES OUT OF THE GLAKE REGION AND THIS SHOULD BE ENUF
TO DIFFUSE VSBY CONCERNS OVER THESE AREAS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MECH
LIFT AND SOME ULVL DYNAMICAL AIDE TO ALLOW FOR -SHRA AND SPRINKLES
WHICH IS COVERED WITH ISOL POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN FOUR NC MTN
COUNTIES. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS BY A
COUPLE CATS OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL DIG STRONGLY OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO OUR AREA
LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST THAT WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
PROTRACTED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/NORTH GEORGIA INTO
LATE WEEK. A PERIOD OF NW FLOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS UPSLOPE MOISTURE DEEPENS BRIEFLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...EVEN THEN TENN BORDER POPS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 30 PERCENT OR SO. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BY EARLY WED...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LINGERING CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CLASSIC COOL/MOSTLY CLEAR AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY
GIVING WAY TO WEATHER THAT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR
WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS...
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN TYPICALLY INACTIVE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY
BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
MODIFY CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RISE DOWNSTREAM
OF DAMPENING SHORT WAVE RIDGE. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST PASSAGE OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND COOL US DOWN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SFC HIPRES CONTINUES TO CENTER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR CALM WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING IN WEAK FLOW WILL BE HAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SFC WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMING
DEFINED SSW/LY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST. A
LATE AFTERNOON SHIFT TO W/LY IS POSSIBLE WITH CROSSING ULVL TROF
AXIS...BUT AGAIN WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW END.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 200855
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
455 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...PASSING BKN/OVC CI FIELD CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY
THE NRN ZONES THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH CALM CONDS...TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED A COUPLE DEGREES F ABOVE THE FCST CURVE ACROSS THE FB
VALLEY AND OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE. THUS...THE HR/LY TEMP
GRIDS WERE ADJ UPWARD A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD FR FORMATION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LOOKS MINIMAL PER THE
LATEST MESONET T/TD DATA...HOWEVER PATCHY DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE AND THRU SUNRISE.

AS OF 245 AM EDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WX PATTERN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS WITH NOMINAL MIXING IN WEAK LLVL
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROF AXIS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...YET FEW/SCT CI WILL LINGER WITH FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU PROBABLE AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND
RIGHT IN LINE WITH EXPECTED LLVL THICKNESS VALUES.

WITH THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE INCREASE IN SW/LY
TEMP/MOIST FLUX MON WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER MINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
THIS WILL OFFSET MOST FG AND FR THREATS...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND
MOS GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE A GOOD PROB FOR LOW VSBY ACROSS THE
FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE TN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AN INCREASE IN
STCU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NC MTN SPINE AND NRN MTNS OVERNIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES OUT OF THE GLAKE REGION AND THIS SHOULD BE ENUF
TO DIFFUSE VSBY CONCERNS OVER THESE AREAS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MECH
LIFT AND SOME ULVL DYNAMICAL AIDE TO ALLOW FOR -SHRA AND SPRINKLES
WHICH IS COVERED WITH ISOL POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN FOUR NC MTN
COUNTIES. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS BY A
COUPLE CATS OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL DIG STRONGLY OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO OUR AREA
LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST THAT WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
PROTRACTED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/NORTH GEORGIA INTO
LATE WEEK. A PERIOD OF NW FLOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS UPSLOPE MOISTURE DEEPENS BRIEFLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...EVEN THEN TENN BORDER POPS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 30 PERCENT OR SO. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BY EARLY WED...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LINGERING CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CLASSIC COOL/MOSTLY CLEAR AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY
GIVING WAY TO WEATHER THAT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR
WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS...
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN TYPICALLY INACTIVE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY
BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
MODIFY CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RISE DOWNSTREAM
OF DAMPENING SHORT WAVE RIDGE. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST PASSAGE OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND COOL US DOWN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SFC HIPRES CONTINUES TO CENTER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR CALM WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING IN WEAK FLOW WILL BE HAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SFC WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMING
DEFINED SSW/LY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST. A
LATE AFTERNOON SHIFT TO W/LY IS POSSIBLE WITH CROSSING ULVL TROF
AXIS...BUT AGAIN WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW END.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 200732
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WX PATTERN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS WITH NOMINAL MIXING IN WEAK LLVL
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROF AXIS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...YET FEW/SCT CI WILL LINGER WITH FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU PROBABLE AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND
RIGHT IN LINE WITH EXPECTED LLVL THICKNESS VALUES.

WITH THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE INCREASE IN SW/LY
TEMP/MOIST FLUX MON WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER MINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
THIS WILL OFFSET MOST FG AND FR THREATS...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND
MOS GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE A GOOD PROB FOR LOW VSBY ACROSS THE
FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE TN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AN INCREASE IN
STCU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NC MTN SPINE AND NRN MTNS OVERNIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES OUT OF THE GLAKE REGION AND THIS SHOULD BE ENUF
TO DIFFUSE VSBY CONCERNS OVER THESE AREAS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MECH
LIFT AND SOME ULVL DYNAMICAL AIDE TO ALLOW FOR -SHRA AND SPRINKLES
WHICH IS COVERED WITH ISOL POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN FOUR NC MTN
COUNTIES. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS BY A
COUPLE CATS OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL DIG STRONGLY OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO OUR AREA
LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST THAT WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
PROTRACTED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/NORTH GEORGIA INTO
LATE WEEK. A PERIOD OF NW FLOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS UPSLOPE MOISTURE DEEPENS BRIEFLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...EVEN THEN TENN BORDER POPS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 30 PERCENT OR SO. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BY EARLY WED...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LINGERING CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CLASSIC COOL/MOSTLY CLEAR AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY
GIVING WAY TO WEATHER THAT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR
WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS...
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN TYPICALLY INACTIVE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY
BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
MODIFY CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RISE DOWNSTREAM
OF DAMPENING SHORT WAVE RIDGE. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST PASSAGE OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND COOL US DOWN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SFC HIPRES CONTINUES TO CENTER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR CALM WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING IN WEAK FLOW WILL BE HAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SFC WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMING
DEFINED SSW/LY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST. A
LATE AFTERNOON SHIFT TO W/LY IS POSSIBLE WITH CROSSING ULVL TROF
AXIS...BUT AGAIN WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW END.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 200732
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WX PATTERN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS WITH NOMINAL MIXING IN WEAK LLVL
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROF AXIS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...YET FEW/SCT CI WILL LINGER WITH FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU PROBABLE AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND
RIGHT IN LINE WITH EXPECTED LLVL THICKNESS VALUES.

WITH THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE INCREASE IN SW/LY
TEMP/MOIST FLUX MON WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER MINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
THIS WILL OFFSET MOST FG AND FR THREATS...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND
MOS GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE A GOOD PROB FOR LOW VSBY ACROSS THE
FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE TN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AN INCREASE IN
STCU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NC MTN SPINE AND NRN MTNS OVERNIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES OUT OF THE GLAKE REGION AND THIS SHOULD BE ENUF
TO DIFFUSE VSBY CONCERNS OVER THESE AREAS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MECH
LIFT AND SOME ULVL DYNAMICAL AIDE TO ALLOW FOR -SHRA AND SPRINKLES
WHICH IS COVERED WITH ISOL POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN FOUR NC MTN
COUNTIES. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS BY A
COUPLE CATS OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL DIG STRONGLY OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO OUR AREA
LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST THAT WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
PROTRACTED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/NORTH GEORGIA INTO
LATE WEEK. A PERIOD OF NW FLOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS UPSLOPE MOISTURE DEEPENS BRIEFLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...EVEN THEN TENN BORDER POPS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 30 PERCENT OR SO. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BY EARLY WED...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LINGERING CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CLASSIC COOL/MOSTLY CLEAR AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY
GIVING WAY TO WEATHER THAT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR
WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS...
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN TYPICALLY INACTIVE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY
BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
MODIFY CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RISE DOWNSTREAM
OF DAMPENING SHORT WAVE RIDGE. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST PASSAGE OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND COOL US DOWN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SFC HIPRES CONTINUES TO CENTER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR CALM WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING IN WEAK FLOW WILL BE HAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SFC WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMING
DEFINED SSW/LY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST. A
LATE AFTERNOON SHIFT TO W/LY IS POSSIBLE WITH CROSSING ULVL TROF
AXIS...BUT AGAIN WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW END.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 200732
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WX PATTERN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS WITH NOMINAL MIXING IN WEAK LLVL
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROF AXIS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...YET FEW/SCT CI WILL LINGER WITH FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU PROBABLE AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND
RIGHT IN LINE WITH EXPECTED LLVL THICKNESS VALUES.

WITH THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE INCREASE IN SW/LY
TEMP/MOIST FLUX MON WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER MINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
THIS WILL OFFSET MOST FG AND FR THREATS...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND
MOS GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE A GOOD PROB FOR LOW VSBY ACROSS THE
FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE TN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AN INCREASE IN
STCU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NC MTN SPINE AND NRN MTNS OVERNIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES OUT OF THE GLAKE REGION AND THIS SHOULD BE ENUF
TO DIFFUSE VSBY CONCERNS OVER THESE AREAS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MECH
LIFT AND SOME ULVL DYNAMICAL AIDE TO ALLOW FOR -SHRA AND SPRINKLES
WHICH IS COVERED WITH ISOL POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN FOUR NC MTN
COUNTIES. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS BY A
COUPLE CATS OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL DIG STRONGLY OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO OUR AREA
LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST THAT WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
PROTRACTED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/NORTH GEORGIA INTO
LATE WEEK. A PERIOD OF NW FLOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS UPSLOPE MOISTURE DEEPENS BRIEFLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...EVEN THEN TENN BORDER POPS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 30 PERCENT OR SO. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BY EARLY WED...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LINGERING CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CLASSIC COOL/MOSTLY CLEAR AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY
GIVING WAY TO WEATHER THAT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR
WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS...
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN TYPICALLY INACTIVE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY
BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
MODIFY CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RISE DOWNSTREAM
OF DAMPENING SHORT WAVE RIDGE. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST PASSAGE OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND COOL US DOWN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SFC HIPRES CONTINUES TO CENTER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR CALM WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING IN WEAK FLOW WILL BE HAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SFC WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMING
DEFINED SSW/LY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST. A
LATE AFTERNOON SHIFT TO W/LY IS POSSIBLE WITH CROSSING ULVL TROF
AXIS...BUT AGAIN WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW END.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 200732
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WX PATTERN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS WITH NOMINAL MIXING IN WEAK LLVL
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROF AXIS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...YET FEW/SCT CI WILL LINGER WITH FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU PROBABLE AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND
RIGHT IN LINE WITH EXPECTED LLVL THICKNESS VALUES.

WITH THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE...THE INCREASE IN SW/LY
TEMP/MOIST FLUX MON WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER MINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
THIS WILL OFFSET MOST FG AND FR THREATS...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS AND
MOS GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE A GOOD PROB FOR LOW VSBY ACROSS THE
FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE TN VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AN INCREASE IN
STCU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NC MTN SPINE AND NRN MTNS OVERNIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES OUT OF THE GLAKE REGION AND THIS SHOULD BE ENUF
TO DIFFUSE VSBY CONCERNS OVER THESE AREAS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MECH
LIFT AND SOME ULVL DYNAMICAL AIDE TO ALLOW FOR -SHRA AND SPRINKLES
WHICH IS COVERED WITH ISOL POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN FOUR NC MTN
COUNTIES. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS BY A
COUPLE CATS OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL DIG STRONGLY OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO OUR AREA
LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST THAT WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
PROTRACTED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/NORTH GEORGIA INTO
LATE WEEK. A PERIOD OF NW FLOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS UPSLOPE MOISTURE DEEPENS BRIEFLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...EVEN THEN TENN BORDER POPS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 30 PERCENT OR SO. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BY EARLY WED...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LINGERING CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CLASSIC COOL/MOSTLY CLEAR AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY
GIVING WAY TO WEATHER THAT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR
WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MTNS...
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MTNS (WHERE
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN TYPICALLY INACTIVE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY
BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
MODIFY CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RISE DOWNSTREAM
OF DAMPENING SHORT WAVE RIDGE. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST PASSAGE OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND COOL US DOWN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SFC HIPRES CONTINUES TO CENTER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR CALM WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING IN WEAK FLOW WILL BE HAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SFC WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMING
DEFINED SSW/LY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST. A
LATE AFTERNOON SHIFT TO W/LY IS POSSIBLE WITH CROSSING ULVL TROF
AXIS...BUT AGAIN WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW END.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 200545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM EDT UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEED TO THE GOING FCST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HRS. MADE SOME SIGFNT SKY COVER INCREASES ACROSS THE MTNS
WITH CI PATCH DEFINED IN S/W FLOW. RELIED ON MADIS SFC OBS FOR
MANUAL HR/LY T/TD GRID EDITS...WHICH RESULTED IN A BUMP UP ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWN A BIT NON/MTNS. MIN TEMPS AND TD/S WILL
BE MARGINAL ACROSS THE NRN MTN VALLEYS FOR AREAS OF FR
FORMATION...BUT SOME PATCHY FR IS PROBABLE BEFORE DAYBREAK.

AS OF 1030 PM...THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE WERE
TO INCREASE THE DEWPTS ACRS THE CWFA...MOST AREAS BY 4-8F. THIS
TREND IN ADDITION TO BUMPING UP SKY COVER FOR THE GENERALLY THIN
CIRRUS...INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH FROST POTENTIAL. I DID OPT TO LEAVE MIN TEMPS ALONE...BUT THEY
MAY BE TOO COLD IN SPOTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE NORTHERN
NC MTNS...WHERE SOME OF THE VALLEYS HAVE SEEN A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS
ALREADY INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SPOTS. I BEEFED UP THE AREA OF PATCHY
FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN THREE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE HIGH
CLOUDS...DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LIGHT...BUT
INCREASING SWLY LLVL FLOW...I OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY...AS I
DON/T THINK A WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST WILL OCCUR.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND JUST PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS...TEMPS
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WHICH IS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
MID/UPPER FORCING LATE IN THE DAY...THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER OF THE NC MTNS. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP AFTER 21Z. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE. THIS OPEN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF AS AN UPPER LOW
JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST BY TUE NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WED WEDNESDAY...LEAVING OUR CWA UNDER N/NNW
FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MON NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NE COAST BY TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SW WINDS VEERING TO THE NW IN ITS
WAKE. MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER
DEVELOPING UP TO 800MB ALONG THE TN BORDER AS LLVL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN PREVAILING NW
FLOW. WITH THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLOW AND LLVL
MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TUE INTO EARLY WED. COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON TUE AND DROP BY 8-10 DEGREES ON
WED. MIN TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD APPEARS TOO WARM FOR
FORST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TOWARD THE NE WHILE AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRI...OFF THE SE COAST
BY SAT. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT INTO SUN
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THU...AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SFC HIPRES CONTINUES TO CENTER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR CALM WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING IN WEAK FLOW WILL BE HAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SFC WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMING
DEFINED SSW/LY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST. A
LATE AFTERNOON SHIFT TO W/LY IS POSSIBLE WITH CROSSING ULVL TROF
AXIS...BUT AGAIN WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW END.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 200545
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM EDT UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEED TO THE GOING FCST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HRS. MADE SOME SIGFNT SKY COVER INCREASES ACROSS THE MTNS
WITH CI PATCH DEFINED IN S/W FLOW. RELIED ON MADIS SFC OBS FOR
MANUAL HR/LY T/TD GRID EDITS...WHICH RESULTED IN A BUMP UP ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWN A BIT NON/MTNS. MIN TEMPS AND TD/S WILL
BE MARGINAL ACROSS THE NRN MTN VALLEYS FOR AREAS OF FR
FORMATION...BUT SOME PATCHY FR IS PROBABLE BEFORE DAYBREAK.

AS OF 1030 PM...THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE WERE
TO INCREASE THE DEWPTS ACRS THE CWFA...MOST AREAS BY 4-8F. THIS
TREND IN ADDITION TO BUMPING UP SKY COVER FOR THE GENERALLY THIN
CIRRUS...INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH FROST POTENTIAL. I DID OPT TO LEAVE MIN TEMPS ALONE...BUT THEY
MAY BE TOO COLD IN SPOTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE NORTHERN
NC MTNS...WHERE SOME OF THE VALLEYS HAVE SEEN A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS
ALREADY INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SPOTS. I BEEFED UP THE AREA OF PATCHY
FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN THREE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE HIGH
CLOUDS...DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LIGHT...BUT
INCREASING SWLY LLVL FLOW...I OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY...AS I
DON/T THINK A WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST WILL OCCUR.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND JUST PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS...TEMPS
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WHICH IS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
MID/UPPER FORCING LATE IN THE DAY...THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER OF THE NC MTNS. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP AFTER 21Z. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE. THIS OPEN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF AS AN UPPER LOW
JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST BY TUE NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WED WEDNESDAY...LEAVING OUR CWA UNDER N/NNW
FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MON NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NE COAST BY TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SW WINDS VEERING TO THE NW IN ITS
WAKE. MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER
DEVELOPING UP TO 800MB ALONG THE TN BORDER AS LLVL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN PREVAILING NW
FLOW. WITH THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLOW AND LLVL
MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TUE INTO EARLY WED. COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON TUE AND DROP BY 8-10 DEGREES ON
WED. MIN TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD APPEARS TOO WARM FOR
FORST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TOWARD THE NE WHILE AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRI...OFF THE SE COAST
BY SAT. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT INTO SUN
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THU...AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SFC HIPRES CONTINUES TO CENTER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR CALM WINDS. SHALLOW MIXING IN WEAK FLOW WILL BE HAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SFC WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMING
DEFINED SSW/LY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST. A
LATE AFTERNOON SHIFT TO W/LY IS POSSIBLE WITH CROSSING ULVL TROF
AXIS...BUT AGAIN WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW END.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...SBK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 200243
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE WERE
TO INCREASE THE DEWPTS ACRS THE CWFA...MOST AREAS BY 4-8F. THIS
TREND IN ADDITION TO BUMPING UP SKY COVER FOR THE GENERALLY THIN
CIRRUS...INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH FROST POTENTIAL. I DID OPT TO LEAVE MIN TEMPS ALONE...BUT THEY
MAY BE TOO COLD IN SPOTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE NORTHERN
NC MTNS...WHERE SOME OF THE VALLEYS HAVE SEEN A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS
ALREADY INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SPOTS. I BEEFED UP THE AREA OF PATCHY
FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN THREE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE HIGH
CLOUDS...DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LIGHT...BUT
INCREASING SWLY LLVL FLOW...I OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY...AS I
DON/T THINK A WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST WILL OCCUR.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND JUST PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS...TEMPS
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WHICH IS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
MID/UPPER FORCING LATE IN THE DAY...THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER OF THE NC MTNS. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP AFTER 21Z. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE. THIS OPEN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF AS AN UPPER LOW
JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST BY TUE NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WED WEDNESDAY...LEAVING OUR CWA UNDER N/NNW
FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MON NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NE COAST BY TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SW WINDS VEERING TO THE NW IN ITS
WAKE. MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER
DEVELOPING UP TO 800MB ALONG THE TN BORDER AS LLVL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN PREVAILING NW
FLOW. WITH THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLOW AND LLVL
MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TUE INTO EARLY WED. COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON TUE AND DROP BY 8-10 DEGREES ON
WED. MIN TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD APPEARS TOO WARM FOR
FORST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TOWARD THE NE WHILE AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRI...OFF THE SE COAST
BY SAT. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT INTO SUN
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THU...AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD...AS DRY HIGH PRES DRIFTS EAST ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT OPAQUE CIRRUS WILL STREAM ACRS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF CIRRUS CIGS MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM HINTS
THAT PATCHY 2500-3500 FT STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP AS FLOW INCREASES OUT
OF THE SW. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS. AS
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPTS ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...CROSSOVER TEMPS WERE QUITE LOW (E.G. CLT 38 AND
AVL...28). SO UNLESS LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED...I AM NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT IN THE LITTLE
TN VALLEY AND PERHAPS SOME OF THE OTHER SMALLER NC MTN VALLEYS.
WINDS SHUD BE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT SLY OVERNIGHT...THEN GENERALLY
5-8 KTS OUT OF THE SW MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...ARK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 200243
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE WERE
TO INCREASE THE DEWPTS ACRS THE CWFA...MOST AREAS BY 4-8F. THIS
TREND IN ADDITION TO BUMPING UP SKY COVER FOR THE GENERALLY THIN
CIRRUS...INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH FROST POTENTIAL. I DID OPT TO LEAVE MIN TEMPS ALONE...BUT THEY
MAY BE TOO COLD IN SPOTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE NORTHERN
NC MTNS...WHERE SOME OF THE VALLEYS HAVE SEEN A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS
ALREADY INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SPOTS. I BEEFED UP THE AREA OF PATCHY
FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN THREE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE HIGH
CLOUDS...DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LIGHT...BUT
INCREASING SWLY LLVL FLOW...I OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY...AS I
DON/T THINK A WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST WILL OCCUR.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND JUST PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS...TEMPS
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WHICH IS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
MID/UPPER FORCING LATE IN THE DAY...THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER OF THE NC MTNS. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP AFTER 21Z. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE. THIS OPEN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF AS AN UPPER LOW
JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST BY TUE NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WED WEDNESDAY...LEAVING OUR CWA UNDER N/NNW
FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MON NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NE COAST BY TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SW WINDS VEERING TO THE NW IN ITS
WAKE. MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER
DEVELOPING UP TO 800MB ALONG THE TN BORDER AS LLVL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN PREVAILING NW
FLOW. WITH THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLOW AND LLVL
MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TUE INTO EARLY WED. COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON TUE AND DROP BY 8-10 DEGREES ON
WED. MIN TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD APPEARS TOO WARM FOR
FORST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TOWARD THE NE WHILE AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRI...OFF THE SE COAST
BY SAT. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT INTO SUN
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THU...AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD...AS DRY HIGH PRES DRIFTS EAST ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT OPAQUE CIRRUS WILL STREAM ACRS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF CIRRUS CIGS MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM HINTS
THAT PATCHY 2500-3500 FT STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP AS FLOW INCREASES OUT
OF THE SW. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS. AS
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPTS ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...CROSSOVER TEMPS WERE QUITE LOW (E.G. CLT 38 AND
AVL...28). SO UNLESS LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED...I AM NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT IN THE LITTLE
TN VALLEY AND PERHAPS SOME OF THE OTHER SMALLER NC MTN VALLEYS.
WINDS SHUD BE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT SLY OVERNIGHT...THEN GENERALLY
5-8 KTS OUT OF THE SW MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...ARK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 192339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...I TOOK ANOTHER LOOK AT THE GUIDANCE AND OVERALL
SAT/METAR TRENDS TO GAUGE THE FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...SIGNALS ARE MIXED. IT SHUD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...WITH CENTER OF LARGE SFC HIGH PRES INVOF THE AREA
THRU THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LLVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT
OF THE SW...WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION DEPICTED IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE NAM LOOKS OVERDONE ON DWPTS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...EVEN THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE LOWEST DWPTS RESULT IN TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S...SAVE FOR THE USUAL COLD SHELTERED AREAS.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED...THICKENING CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ON IR SAT IMAGERY
UPSTREAM...AND WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALSO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SLIGHTLY. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...I DID BLEND IN
SOME COOP MOS (WHICH USUALLY DOES WELL IN THESE TYPES OF NIGHTS IN
THE FALL)...AND THIS RESULTS IN SOME LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS.
HOWEVER...STILL ONLY PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED. SO NO FROST ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.

AS OF 500 PM...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. POPULATED THE HOURLY T AND TD
GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND BLENDED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THOSE TRENDS.

AS OF 230 PM...THE FCST LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON TRACK. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS
LOOK GOOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. NO CHANGES.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD CARRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR AND
WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...AT WHICH POINT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS
LIKELY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST ACROSS ALL
BUT THE MOST SHELTERED AREAS OF THE NC PIEDMONT. THERE IS MORE
CONCERN FOR THE MTNS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OBJECTIVELY SPEAKING...THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY. IF THE MIN
TEMPS DROP LOWER THAN EXPECTED...THIS COULD REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
MID/UPPER FORCING LATE IN THE DAY...THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER OF THE NC MTNS. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP AFTER 21Z. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE. THIS OPEN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF AS AN UPPER LOW
JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST BY TUE NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WED WEDNESDAY...LEAVING OUR CWA UNDER N/NNW
FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MON NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NE COAST BY TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SW WINDS VEERING TO THE NW IN ITS
WAKE. MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER
DEVELOPING UP TO 800MB ALONG THE TN BORDER AS LLVL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN PREVAILING NW
FLOW. WITH THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLOW AND LLVL
MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TUE INTO EARLY WED. COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON TUE AND DROP BY 8-10 DEGREES ON
WED. MIN TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD APPEARS TOO WARM FOR
FORST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TOWARD THE NE WHILE AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRI...OFF THE SE COAST
BY SAT. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT INTO SUN
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THU...AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD...AS DRY HIGH PRES DRIFTS EAST ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT OPAQUE CIRRUS WILL STREAM ACRS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF CIRRUS CIGS MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM HINTS
THAT PATCHY 2500-3500 FT STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP AS FLOW INCREASES OUT
OF THE SW. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS. AS
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPTS ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...CROSSOVER TEMPS WERE QUITE LOW (E.G. CLT 38 AND
AVL...28). SO UNLESS LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED...I AM NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT IN THE LITTLE
TN VALLEY AND PERHAPS SOME OF THE OTHER SMALLER NC MTN VALLEYS.
WINDS SHUD BE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT SLY OVERNIGHT...THEN GENERALLY
5-8 KTS OUT OF THE SW MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...ARK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 192339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...I TOOK ANOTHER LOOK AT THE GUIDANCE AND OVERALL
SAT/METAR TRENDS TO GAUGE THE FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...SIGNALS ARE MIXED. IT SHUD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...WITH CENTER OF LARGE SFC HIGH PRES INVOF THE AREA
THRU THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LLVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT
OF THE SW...WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION DEPICTED IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE NAM LOOKS OVERDONE ON DWPTS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...EVEN THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE LOWEST DWPTS RESULT IN TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S...SAVE FOR THE USUAL COLD SHELTERED AREAS.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED...THICKENING CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ON IR SAT IMAGERY
UPSTREAM...AND WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALSO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SLIGHTLY. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...I DID BLEND IN
SOME COOP MOS (WHICH USUALLY DOES WELL IN THESE TYPES OF NIGHTS IN
THE FALL)...AND THIS RESULTS IN SOME LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS.
HOWEVER...STILL ONLY PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED. SO NO FROST ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.

AS OF 500 PM...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. POPULATED THE HOURLY T AND TD
GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND BLENDED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THOSE TRENDS.

AS OF 230 PM...THE FCST LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON TRACK. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS
LOOK GOOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. NO CHANGES.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD CARRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR AND
WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...AT WHICH POINT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS
LIKELY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST ACROSS ALL
BUT THE MOST SHELTERED AREAS OF THE NC PIEDMONT. THERE IS MORE
CONCERN FOR THE MTNS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OBJECTIVELY SPEAKING...THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY. IF THE MIN
TEMPS DROP LOWER THAN EXPECTED...THIS COULD REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
MID/UPPER FORCING LATE IN THE DAY...THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER OF THE NC MTNS. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP AFTER 21Z. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE. THIS OPEN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF AS AN UPPER LOW
JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST BY TUE NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WED WEDNESDAY...LEAVING OUR CWA UNDER N/NNW
FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MON NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NE COAST BY TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SW WINDS VEERING TO THE NW IN ITS
WAKE. MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER
DEVELOPING UP TO 800MB ALONG THE TN BORDER AS LLVL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN PREVAILING NW
FLOW. WITH THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLOW AND LLVL
MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TUE INTO EARLY WED. COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON TUE AND DROP BY 8-10 DEGREES ON
WED. MIN TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD APPEARS TOO WARM FOR
FORST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TOWARD THE NE WHILE AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRI...OFF THE SE COAST
BY SAT. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT INTO SUN
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THU...AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD...AS DRY HIGH PRES DRIFTS EAST ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT OPAQUE CIRRUS WILL STREAM ACRS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF CIRRUS CIGS MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM HINTS
THAT PATCHY 2500-3500 FT STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP AS FLOW INCREASES OUT
OF THE SW. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS. AS
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPTS ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...CROSSOVER TEMPS WERE QUITE LOW (E.G. CLT 38 AND
AVL...28). SO UNLESS LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED...I AM NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT IN THE LITTLE
TN VALLEY AND PERHAPS SOME OF THE OTHER SMALLER NC MTN VALLEYS.
WINDS SHUD BE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT SLY OVERNIGHT...THEN GENERALLY
5-8 KTS OUT OF THE SW MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...ARK







000
FXUS62 KGSP 192339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...I TOOK ANOTHER LOOK AT THE GUIDANCE AND OVERALL
SAT/METAR TRENDS TO GAUGE THE FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...SIGNALS ARE MIXED. IT SHUD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...WITH CENTER OF LARGE SFC HIGH PRES INVOF THE AREA
THRU THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LLVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT
OF THE SW...WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION DEPICTED IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE NAM LOOKS OVERDONE ON DWPTS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...EVEN THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE LOWEST DWPTS RESULT IN TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S...SAVE FOR THE USUAL COLD SHELTERED AREAS.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED...THICKENING CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ON IR SAT IMAGERY
UPSTREAM...AND WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALSO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SLIGHTLY. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...I DID BLEND IN
SOME COOP MOS (WHICH USUALLY DOES WELL IN THESE TYPES OF NIGHTS IN
THE FALL)...AND THIS RESULTS IN SOME LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS.
HOWEVER...STILL ONLY PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED. SO NO FROST ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.

AS OF 500 PM...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. POPULATED THE HOURLY T AND TD
GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND BLENDED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THOSE TRENDS.

AS OF 230 PM...THE FCST LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON TRACK. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS
LOOK GOOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. NO CHANGES.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD CARRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR AND
WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...AT WHICH POINT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS
LIKELY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST ACROSS ALL
BUT THE MOST SHELTERED AREAS OF THE NC PIEDMONT. THERE IS MORE
CONCERN FOR THE MTNS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OBJECTIVELY SPEAKING...THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY. IF THE MIN
TEMPS DROP LOWER THAN EXPECTED...THIS COULD REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
MID/UPPER FORCING LATE IN THE DAY...THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER OF THE NC MTNS. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP AFTER 21Z. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE. THIS OPEN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF AS AN UPPER LOW
JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST BY TUE NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WED WEDNESDAY...LEAVING OUR CWA UNDER N/NNW
FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MON NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NE COAST BY TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SW WINDS VEERING TO THE NW IN ITS
WAKE. MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER
DEVELOPING UP TO 800MB ALONG THE TN BORDER AS LLVL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN PREVAILING NW
FLOW. WITH THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLOW AND LLVL
MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TUE INTO EARLY WED. COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON TUE AND DROP BY 8-10 DEGREES ON
WED. MIN TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD APPEARS TOO WARM FOR
FORST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TOWARD THE NE WHILE AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRI...OFF THE SE COAST
BY SAT. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT INTO SUN
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THU...AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD...AS DRY HIGH PRES DRIFTS EAST ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT OPAQUE CIRRUS WILL STREAM ACRS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF CIRRUS CIGS MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM HINTS
THAT PATCHY 2500-3500 FT STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP AS FLOW INCREASES OUT
OF THE SW. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS. AS
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPTS ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...CROSSOVER TEMPS WERE QUITE LOW (E.G. CLT 38 AND
AVL...28). SO UNLESS LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED...I AM NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT IN THE LITTLE
TN VALLEY AND PERHAPS SOME OF THE OTHER SMALLER NC MTN VALLEYS.
WINDS SHUD BE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT SLY OVERNIGHT...THEN GENERALLY
5-8 KTS OUT OF THE SW MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...ARK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 192339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...I TOOK ANOTHER LOOK AT THE GUIDANCE AND OVERALL
SAT/METAR TRENDS TO GAUGE THE FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...SIGNALS ARE MIXED. IT SHUD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...WITH CENTER OF LARGE SFC HIGH PRES INVOF THE AREA
THRU THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LLVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT
OF THE SW...WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION DEPICTED IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE NAM LOOKS OVERDONE ON DWPTS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...EVEN THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE LOWEST DWPTS RESULT IN TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S...SAVE FOR THE USUAL COLD SHELTERED AREAS.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED...THICKENING CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ON IR SAT IMAGERY
UPSTREAM...AND WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALSO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SLIGHTLY. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...I DID BLEND IN
SOME COOP MOS (WHICH USUALLY DOES WELL IN THESE TYPES OF NIGHTS IN
THE FALL)...AND THIS RESULTS IN SOME LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS.
HOWEVER...STILL ONLY PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED. SO NO FROST ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.

AS OF 500 PM...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. POPULATED THE HOURLY T AND TD
GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND BLENDED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THOSE TRENDS.

AS OF 230 PM...THE FCST LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON TRACK. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS
LOOK GOOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. NO CHANGES.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD CARRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR AND
WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...AT WHICH POINT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS
LIKELY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST ACROSS ALL
BUT THE MOST SHELTERED AREAS OF THE NC PIEDMONT. THERE IS MORE
CONCERN FOR THE MTNS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OBJECTIVELY SPEAKING...THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY. IF THE MIN
TEMPS DROP LOWER THAN EXPECTED...THIS COULD REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
MID/UPPER FORCING LATE IN THE DAY...THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER OF THE NC MTNS. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP AFTER 21Z. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE. THIS OPEN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF AS AN UPPER LOW
JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST BY TUE NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WED WEDNESDAY...LEAVING OUR CWA UNDER N/NNW
FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MON NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NE COAST BY TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SW WINDS VEERING TO THE NW IN ITS
WAKE. MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER
DEVELOPING UP TO 800MB ALONG THE TN BORDER AS LLVL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN PREVAILING NW
FLOW. WITH THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLOW AND LLVL
MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TUE INTO EARLY WED. COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON TUE AND DROP BY 8-10 DEGREES ON
WED. MIN TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD APPEARS TOO WARM FOR
FORST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TOWARD THE NE WHILE AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRI...OFF THE SE COAST
BY SAT. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT INTO SUN
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THU...AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD...AS DRY HIGH PRES DRIFTS EAST ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT OPAQUE CIRRUS WILL STREAM ACRS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF CIRRUS CIGS MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM HINTS
THAT PATCHY 2500-3500 FT STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP AS FLOW INCREASES OUT
OF THE SW. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS. AS
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPTS ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...CROSSOVER TEMPS WERE QUITE LOW (E.G. CLT 38 AND
AVL...28). SO UNLESS LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED...I AM NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT IN THE LITTLE
TN VALLEY AND PERHAPS SOME OF THE OTHER SMALLER NC MTN VALLEYS.
WINDS SHUD BE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT SLY OVERNIGHT...THEN GENERALLY
5-8 KTS OUT OF THE SW MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...ARK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 192100
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 500 PM...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. POPULATED THE HOURLY T AND TD
GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND BLENDED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THOSE TRENDS.

AS OF 230 PM...THE FCST LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON TRACK. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS
LOOK GOOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. NO CHANGES.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD CARRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR AND
WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...AT WHICH POINT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS
LIKELY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST ACROSS ALL
BUT THE MOST SHELTERED AREAS OF THE NC PIEDMONT. THERE IS MORE
CONCERN FOR THE MTNS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OBJECTIVELY SPEAKING...THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY. IF THE MIN
TEMPS DROP LOWER THAN EXPECTED...THIS COULD REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
MID/UPPER FORCING LATE IN THE DAY...THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER OF THE NC MTNS. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP AFTER 21Z. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE. THIS OPEN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF AS AN UPPER LOW
JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST BY TUE NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WED WEDNESDAY...LEAVING OUR CWA UNDER N/NNW
FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MON NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NE COAST BY TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SW WINDS VEERING TO THE NW IN ITS
WAKE. MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER
DEVELOPING UP TO 800MB ALONG THE TN BORDER AS LLVL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN PREVAILING NW
FLOW. WITH THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLOW AND LLVL
MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TUE INTO EARLY WED. COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON TUE AND DROP BY 8-10 DEGREES ON
WED. MIN TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD APPEARS TOO WARM FOR
FORST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TOWARD THE NE WHILE AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRI...OFF THE SE COAST
BY SAT. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT INTO SUN
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THU...AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NW
WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THEN LIGHT S TO SW AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

AT KAVL...NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN THE TEENS LIKELY THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES
IN. THE MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE USES TO
DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE MTNS. WE COULD EASILY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LITTLE TN VALLEY...BUT PREFER TO KEEP IT OUT OF
THE FR BROAD VALLEY/KAVL AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
IF ANY FOG DEVELOPS IT WOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM







000
FXUS62 KGSP 192100
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 500 PM...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. POPULATED THE HOURLY T AND TD
GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND BLENDED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THOSE TRENDS.

AS OF 230 PM...THE FCST LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON TRACK. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS
LOOK GOOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. NO CHANGES.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD CARRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR AND
WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...AT WHICH POINT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS
LIKELY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST ACROSS ALL
BUT THE MOST SHELTERED AREAS OF THE NC PIEDMONT. THERE IS MORE
CONCERN FOR THE MTNS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OBJECTIVELY SPEAKING...THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY. IF THE MIN
TEMPS DROP LOWER THAN EXPECTED...THIS COULD REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
MID/UPPER FORCING LATE IN THE DAY...THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER OF THE NC MTNS. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP AFTER 21Z. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE. THIS OPEN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF AS AN UPPER LOW
JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST BY TUE NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WED WEDNESDAY...LEAVING OUR CWA UNDER N/NNW
FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MON NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NE COAST BY TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SW WINDS VEERING TO THE NW IN ITS
WAKE. MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER
DEVELOPING UP TO 800MB ALONG THE TN BORDER AS LLVL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN PREVAILING NW
FLOW. WITH THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLOW AND LLVL
MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TUE INTO EARLY WED. COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON TUE AND DROP BY 8-10 DEGREES ON
WED. MIN TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD APPEARS TOO WARM FOR
FORST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TOWARD THE NE WHILE AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRI...OFF THE SE COAST
BY SAT. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT INTO SUN
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THU...AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NW
WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THEN LIGHT S TO SW AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

AT KAVL...NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN THE TEENS LIKELY THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES
IN. THE MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE USES TO
DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE MTNS. WE COULD EASILY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LITTLE TN VALLEY...BUT PREFER TO KEEP IT OUT OF
THE FR BROAD VALLEY/KAVL AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
IF ANY FOG DEVELOPS IT WOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM








000
FXUS62 KGSP 191829
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...THE FCST LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON TRACK. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS
LOOK GOOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. NO CHANGES.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD CARRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR AND
WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...AT WHICH POINT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS
LIKELY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST ACROSS ALL
BUT THE MOST SHELTERED AREAS OF THE NC PIEDMONT. THERE IS MORE
CONCERN FOR THE MTNS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OBJECTIVELY SPEAKING...THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY. IF THE MIN
TEMPS DROP LOWER THAN EXPECTED...THIS COULD REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
MID/UPPER FORCING LATE IN THE DAY...THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER OF THE NC MTNS. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP AFTER 21Z. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE. THIS OPEN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF AS AN UPPER LOW
JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST BY TUE NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WED WEDNESDAY...LEAVING OUR CWA UNDER N/NNW
FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MON NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NE COAST BY TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SW WINDS VEERING TO THE NW IN ITS
WAKE. MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER
DEVELOPING UP TO 800MB ALONG THE TN BORDER AS LLVL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN PREVAILING NW
FLOW. WITH THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLOW AND LLVL
MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TUE INTO EARLY WED. COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON TUE AND DROP BY 8-10 DEGREES ON
WED. MIN TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD APPEARS TOO WARM FOR
FORST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TOWARD THE NE WHILE AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRI...OFF THE SE COAST
BY SAT. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT INTO SUN
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THU...AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NW
WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THEN LIGHT S TO SW AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

AT KAVL...NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN THE TEENS LIKELY THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES
IN. THE MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE USES TO
DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE MTNS. WE COULD EASILY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LITTLE TN VALLEY...BUT PREFER TO KEEP IT OUT OF
THE FR BROAD VALLEY/KAVL AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
IF ANY FOG DEVELOPS IT WOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM







000
FXUS62 KGSP 191829
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...THE FCST LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON TRACK. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS
LOOK GOOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. NO CHANGES.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD CARRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR AND
WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...AT WHICH POINT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS
LIKELY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PROBABLY NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST ACROSS ALL
BUT THE MOST SHELTERED AREAS OF THE NC PIEDMONT. THERE IS MORE
CONCERN FOR THE MTNS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OBJECTIVELY SPEAKING...THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY. IF THE MIN
TEMPS DROP LOWER THAN EXPECTED...THIS COULD REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE
MID/UPPER FORCING LATE IN THE DAY...THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER OF THE NC MTNS. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP AFTER 21Z. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE. THIS OPEN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF AS AN UPPER LOW
JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST BY TUE NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WED WEDNESDAY...LEAVING OUR CWA UNDER N/NNW
FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MON NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NE COAST BY TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SW WINDS VEERING TO THE NW IN ITS
WAKE. MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER
DEVELOPING UP TO 800MB ALONG THE TN BORDER AS LLVL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN PREVAILING NW
FLOW. WITH THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLOW AND LLVL
MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF RESPONSE ALONG THE TN BORDER LINE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TUE INTO EARLY WED. COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON TUE AND DROP BY 8-10 DEGREES ON
WED. MIN TEMPS DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD APPEARS TOO WARM FOR
FORST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TOWARD THE NE WHILE AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRI...OFF THE SE COAST
BY SAT. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT INTO SUN
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THU...AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NW
WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THEN LIGHT S TO SW AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

AT KAVL...NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN THE TEENS LIKELY THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES
IN. THE MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE USES TO
DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE MTNS. WE COULD EASILY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LITTLE TN VALLEY...BUT PREFER TO KEEP IT OUT OF
THE FR BROAD VALLEY/KAVL AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
IF ANY FOG DEVELOPS IT WOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...PM








000
FXUS62 KGSP 191748
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...THE FCST LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON TRACK. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS
LOOK GOOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. NO CHANGES.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UNDER HEIGHTS
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW CLIMO THIS AFTERNOON.

BY THE END OF THE DAY...LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY...IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING STRONGLY OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS...ALONG WITH CIRRUS ATTENDING
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX...ARE THE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT IN TERMS OF
THE QUALITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL
NO DOUBT SEE /FROSTY/ TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS
BEEN SHUT OFF FOR THE SEASON IN THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE FROST
OR A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...SO NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN CONUS MONDAY
WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE MIDWEEK...AND A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY IN
SW FLOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THICKNESS VALUES...AND THE SHIFT TO NW
FLOW ACRS THE CWFA LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHT WARMING EFFECT. MOISTURE
DURING THE PERIOD IS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND THOUGH WELL
DEFINED LOBES OF VORTICITY PASS OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT THE MODELS ONLY SUPPORT PRECIP WHERE THESE FEATURES ENHANCE THE
FORCING PROVIDED BY CAA AND/OR HIGH-ELEVATION INSTABILITY. WE WILL
FEATURE LOW TENN BORDER POPS MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING TO THE REST OF
THE MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AREAS TUE...BEFORE THEY AGAIN
RETREAT TO THE BORDER AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS FOLLOWS THE COMBINED
TRENDS OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO...WITH MINS LOOKING TOO WARM FOR FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TOWARD THE NE WHILE AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRI...OFF THE SE COAST
BY SAT. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT INTO SUN
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THU...AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NW
WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THEN LIGHT S TO SW AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

AT KAVL...NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN THE TEENS LIKELY THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES
IN. THE MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE USES TO
DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE MTNS. WE COULD EASILY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LITTLE TN VALLEY...BUT PREFER TO KEEP IT OUT OF
THE FR BROAD VALLEY/KAVL AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
IF ANY FOG DEVELOPS IT WOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM







000
FXUS62 KGSP 191748
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...THE FCST LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON TRACK. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS
LOOK GOOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. NO CHANGES.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UNDER HEIGHTS
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW CLIMO THIS AFTERNOON.

BY THE END OF THE DAY...LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY...IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING STRONGLY OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS...ALONG WITH CIRRUS ATTENDING
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX...ARE THE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT IN TERMS OF
THE QUALITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL
NO DOUBT SEE /FROSTY/ TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS
BEEN SHUT OFF FOR THE SEASON IN THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE FROST
OR A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...SO NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN CONUS MONDAY
WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE MIDWEEK...AND A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY IN
SW FLOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THICKNESS VALUES...AND THE SHIFT TO NW
FLOW ACRS THE CWFA LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHT WARMING EFFECT. MOISTURE
DURING THE PERIOD IS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND THOUGH WELL
DEFINED LOBES OF VORTICITY PASS OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT THE MODELS ONLY SUPPORT PRECIP WHERE THESE FEATURES ENHANCE THE
FORCING PROVIDED BY CAA AND/OR HIGH-ELEVATION INSTABILITY. WE WILL
FEATURE LOW TENN BORDER POPS MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING TO THE REST OF
THE MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AREAS TUE...BEFORE THEY AGAIN
RETREAT TO THE BORDER AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS FOLLOWS THE COMBINED
TRENDS OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO...WITH MINS LOOKING TOO WARM FOR FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TOWARD THE NE WHILE AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRI...OFF THE SE COAST
BY SAT. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT INTO SUN
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THU...AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NW
WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THEN LIGHT S TO SW AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

AT KAVL...NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN THE TEENS LIKELY THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES
IN. THE MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE USES TO
DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE MTNS. WE COULD EASILY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LITTLE TN VALLEY...BUT PREFER TO KEEP IT OUT OF
THE FR BROAD VALLEY/KAVL AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
IF ANY FOG DEVELOPS IT WOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM








000
FXUS62 KGSP 191528
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1128 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TYPICAL
FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...CLOUDS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO MIX OUT
AROUND THE EDGES...SO THE FCST LOOKS LIKE IT IS IN GOOD SHAPE. SOME
TEMPS WERE RUNNING A BIT AHEAD OF THE FCST...SO THE TREND WILL BE
UPDATED...BUT THE HIGH TEMP STILL LOOKS OKAY.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW/UPSLOPE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SHALLOW WITH
TIME THIS MORNING...AS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SWIFTLY OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL
RETREAT AND DIMINISHING OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNDER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO THIS AFTERNOON.

BY THE END OF THE DAY...LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY...IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING STRONGLY OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS...ALONG WITH CIRRUS ATTENDING
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX...ARE THE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT IN TERMS OF
THE QUALITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL
NO DOUBT SEE /FROSTY/ TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS
BEEN SHUT OFF FOR THE SEASON IN THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE FROST
OR A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...SO NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN CONUS MONDAY
WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE MIDWEEK...AND A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY IN
SW FLOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THICKNESS VALUES...AND THE SHIFT TO NW
FLOW ACRS THE CWFA LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHT WARMING EFFECT. MOISTURE
DURING THE PERIOD IS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND THOUGH WELL
DEFINED LOBES OF VORTICITY PASS OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT THE MODELS ONLY SUPPORT PRECIP WHERE THESE FEATURES ENHANCE THE
FORCING PROVIDED BY CAA AND/OR HIGH-ELEVATION INSTABILITY. WE WILL
FEATURE LOW TENN BORDER POPS MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING TO THE REST OF
THE MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AREAS TUE...BEFORE THEY AGAIN
RETREAT TO THE BORDER AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS FOLLOWS THE COMBINED
TRENDS OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO...WITH MINS LOOKING TOO WARM FOR FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED-THU BEFORE LIFTING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
A NARROW RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE THEN BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TWO RIDGES EVENTUALLY MERGE
LEAVING MOST OF THE CONUS DRY AND WITH SETTLED WEATHER BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GFS/EC/GEFS ALL DO ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
SQUEEZE BETWEEN THOSE RIDGES AND THEN TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY. FOR NOW WPC FAVORS A SOLUTION WITH THE DOMINANT
RIDGE. AS FOR OUR AREA...AT THE SFC CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REINFORCE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE CWFA THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. EVEN IF THE CUTOFF LOW FORMS IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AN
IMPACT HERE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF DAY 7. EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LOW NW
FLOW POPS IN THE NRN MTNS EARLY WED...NO PRECIP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
TEMPS WILL SUBTLY WARM THRU THE PERIOD AS THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
MODIFIES. THERE HOWEVER MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS IN THE MTNS THU
MRNG UNDER EXCELLENT RADIATIVE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-
ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MUCH DRIER AIR PERSISTS...
ENSURING VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN N/NW AT 5-7 KTS AT MOST TERMINALS...BEFORE BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT/VRBL DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

AT KAVL...NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN THE TEENS LIKELY FROM MID-MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 15Z OR
SO...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
FOG AND/OR VISBY RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL...BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN
ATTM.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 191528
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1128 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TYPICAL
FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...CLOUDS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO MIX OUT
AROUND THE EDGES...SO THE FCST LOOKS LIKE IT IS IN GOOD SHAPE. SOME
TEMPS WERE RUNNING A BIT AHEAD OF THE FCST...SO THE TREND WILL BE
UPDATED...BUT THE HIGH TEMP STILL LOOKS OKAY.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW/UPSLOPE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SHALLOW WITH
TIME THIS MORNING...AS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SWIFTLY OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL
RETREAT AND DIMINISHING OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNDER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO THIS AFTERNOON.

BY THE END OF THE DAY...LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY...IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING STRONGLY OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS...ALONG WITH CIRRUS ATTENDING
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX...ARE THE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT IN TERMS OF
THE QUALITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL
NO DOUBT SEE /FROSTY/ TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS
BEEN SHUT OFF FOR THE SEASON IN THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE FROST
OR A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...SO NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN CONUS MONDAY
WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE MIDWEEK...AND A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY IN
SW FLOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THICKNESS VALUES...AND THE SHIFT TO NW
FLOW ACRS THE CWFA LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHT WARMING EFFECT. MOISTURE
DURING THE PERIOD IS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND THOUGH WELL
DEFINED LOBES OF VORTICITY PASS OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT THE MODELS ONLY SUPPORT PRECIP WHERE THESE FEATURES ENHANCE THE
FORCING PROVIDED BY CAA AND/OR HIGH-ELEVATION INSTABILITY. WE WILL
FEATURE LOW TENN BORDER POPS MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING TO THE REST OF
THE MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AREAS TUE...BEFORE THEY AGAIN
RETREAT TO THE BORDER AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS FOLLOWS THE COMBINED
TRENDS OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO...WITH MINS LOOKING TOO WARM FOR FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED-THU BEFORE LIFTING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
A NARROW RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE THEN BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TWO RIDGES EVENTUALLY MERGE
LEAVING MOST OF THE CONUS DRY AND WITH SETTLED WEATHER BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GFS/EC/GEFS ALL DO ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
SQUEEZE BETWEEN THOSE RIDGES AND THEN TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY. FOR NOW WPC FAVORS A SOLUTION WITH THE DOMINANT
RIDGE. AS FOR OUR AREA...AT THE SFC CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REINFORCE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE CWFA THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. EVEN IF THE CUTOFF LOW FORMS IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AN
IMPACT HERE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF DAY 7. EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LOW NW
FLOW POPS IN THE NRN MTNS EARLY WED...NO PRECIP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
TEMPS WILL SUBTLY WARM THRU THE PERIOD AS THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
MODIFIES. THERE HOWEVER MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS IN THE MTNS THU
MRNG UNDER EXCELLENT RADIATIVE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-
ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MUCH DRIER AIR PERSISTS...
ENSURING VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN N/NW AT 5-7 KTS AT MOST TERMINALS...BEFORE BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT/VRBL DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

AT KAVL...NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN THE TEENS LIKELY FROM MID-MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 15Z OR
SO...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
FOG AND/OR VISBY RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL...BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN
ATTM.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 191045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TYPICAL
FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM...DESPITE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER (AT LEAST
ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE)...NW FLOW/UPSLOPE STRATOCU
PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS THEREFORE BEEN DELAYED
IN THE FORECAST...BUT CLEARING SHOULD NEVERTHELESS OCCUR RATHER
QUICKLY FROM MID-MORNING ON...WITH SUNNY SKIES LIKELY BY NOON IN ALL
LOCATIONS.

NW FLOW/UPSLOPE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SHALLOW WITH
TIME THIS MORNING...AS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SWIFTLY OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL
RETREAT AND DIMINISHING OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNDER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO THIS AFTERNOON.

BY THE END OF THE DAY...LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY...IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING STRONGLY OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS...ALONG WITH CIRRUS ATTENDING
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX...ARE THE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT IN TERMS OF
THE QUALITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL
NO DOUBT SEE /FROSTY/ TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS
BEEN SHUT OFF FOR THE SEASON IN THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE FROST
OR A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...SO NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN CONUS MONDAY
WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE MIDWEEK...AND A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY IN
SW FLOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THICKNESS VALUES...AND THE SHIFT TO NW
FLOW ACRS THE CWFA LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHT WARMING EFFECT. MOISTURE
DURING THE PERIOD IS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND THOUGH WELL
DEFINED LOBES OF VORTICITY PASS OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT THE MODELS ONLY SUPPORT PRECIP WHERE THESE FEATURES ENHANCE THE
FORCING PROVIDED BY CAA AND/OR HIGH-ELEVATION INSTABILITY. WE WILL
FEATURE LOW TENN BORDER POPS MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING TO THE REST OF
THE MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AREAS TUE...BEFORE THEY AGAIN
RETREAT TO THE BORDER AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS FOLLOWS THE COMBINED
TRENDS OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO...WITH MINS LOOKING TOO WARM FOR FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED-THU BEFORE LIFTING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
A NARROW RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE THEN BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TWO RIDGES EVENTUALLY MERGE
LEAVING MOST OF THE CONUS DRY AND WITH SETTLED WEATHER BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GFS/EC/GEFS ALL DO ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
SQUEEZE BETWEEN THOSE RIDGES AND THEN TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY. FOR NOW WPC FAVORS A SOLUTION WITH THE DOMINANT
RIDGE. AS FOR OUR AREA...AT THE SFC CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REINFORCE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE CWFA THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. EVEN IF THE CUTOFF LOW FORMS IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AN
IMPACT HERE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF DAY 7. EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LOW NW
FLOW POPS IN THE NRN MTNS EARLY WED...NO PRECIP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
TEMPS WILL SUBTLY WARM THRU THE PERIOD AS THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
MODIFIES. THERE HOWEVER MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS IN THE MTNS THU
MRNG UNDER EXCELLENT RADIATIVE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-
ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MUCH DRIER AIR PERSISTS...
ENSURING VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN N/NW AT 5-7 KTS AT MOST TERMINALS...BEFORE BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT/VRBL DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

AT KAVL...NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN THE TEENS LIKELY FROM MID-MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 15Z OR
SO...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
FOG AND/OR VISBY RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL...BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN
ATTM.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 191045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TYPICAL
FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM...DESPITE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER (AT LEAST
ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE)...NW FLOW/UPSLOPE STRATOCU
PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS THEREFORE BEEN DELAYED
IN THE FORECAST...BUT CLEARING SHOULD NEVERTHELESS OCCUR RATHER
QUICKLY FROM MID-MORNING ON...WITH SUNNY SKIES LIKELY BY NOON IN ALL
LOCATIONS.

NW FLOW/UPSLOPE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SHALLOW WITH
TIME THIS MORNING...AS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SWIFTLY OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL
RETREAT AND DIMINISHING OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNDER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO THIS AFTERNOON.

BY THE END OF THE DAY...LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY...IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING STRONGLY OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS...ALONG WITH CIRRUS ATTENDING
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX...ARE THE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT IN TERMS OF
THE QUALITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL
NO DOUBT SEE /FROSTY/ TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS
BEEN SHUT OFF FOR THE SEASON IN THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE FROST
OR A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...SO NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN CONUS MONDAY
WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE MIDWEEK...AND A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY IN
SW FLOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THICKNESS VALUES...AND THE SHIFT TO NW
FLOW ACRS THE CWFA LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHT WARMING EFFECT. MOISTURE
DURING THE PERIOD IS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND THOUGH WELL
DEFINED LOBES OF VORTICITY PASS OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT THE MODELS ONLY SUPPORT PRECIP WHERE THESE FEATURES ENHANCE THE
FORCING PROVIDED BY CAA AND/OR HIGH-ELEVATION INSTABILITY. WE WILL
FEATURE LOW TENN BORDER POPS MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING TO THE REST OF
THE MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AREAS TUE...BEFORE THEY AGAIN
RETREAT TO THE BORDER AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS FOLLOWS THE COMBINED
TRENDS OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO...WITH MINS LOOKING TOO WARM FOR FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED-THU BEFORE LIFTING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
A NARROW RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE THEN BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TWO RIDGES EVENTUALLY MERGE
LEAVING MOST OF THE CONUS DRY AND WITH SETTLED WEATHER BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GFS/EC/GEFS ALL DO ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
SQUEEZE BETWEEN THOSE RIDGES AND THEN TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY. FOR NOW WPC FAVORS A SOLUTION WITH THE DOMINANT
RIDGE. AS FOR OUR AREA...AT THE SFC CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REINFORCE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE CWFA THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. EVEN IF THE CUTOFF LOW FORMS IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AN
IMPACT HERE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF DAY 7. EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LOW NW
FLOW POPS IN THE NRN MTNS EARLY WED...NO PRECIP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
TEMPS WILL SUBTLY WARM THRU THE PERIOD AS THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
MODIFIES. THERE HOWEVER MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS IN THE MTNS THU
MRNG UNDER EXCELLENT RADIATIVE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-
ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MUCH DRIER AIR PERSISTS...
ENSURING VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN N/NW AT 5-7 KTS AT MOST TERMINALS...BEFORE BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT/VRBL DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

AT KAVL...NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN THE TEENS LIKELY FROM MID-MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 15Z OR
SO...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
FOG AND/OR VISBY RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL...BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN
ATTM.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 191045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TYPICAL
FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM...DESPITE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER (AT LEAST
ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE)...NW FLOW/UPSLOPE STRATOCU
PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS THEREFORE BEEN DELAYED
IN THE FORECAST...BUT CLEARING SHOULD NEVERTHELESS OCCUR RATHER
QUICKLY FROM MID-MORNING ON...WITH SUNNY SKIES LIKELY BY NOON IN ALL
LOCATIONS.

NW FLOW/UPSLOPE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SHALLOW WITH
TIME THIS MORNING...AS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SWIFTLY OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL
RETREAT AND DIMINISHING OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNDER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO THIS AFTERNOON.

BY THE END OF THE DAY...LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY...IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING STRONGLY OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS...ALONG WITH CIRRUS ATTENDING
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX...ARE THE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT IN TERMS OF
THE QUALITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL
NO DOUBT SEE /FROSTY/ TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS
BEEN SHUT OFF FOR THE SEASON IN THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE FROST
OR A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...SO NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN CONUS MONDAY
WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE MIDWEEK...AND A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY IN
SW FLOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THICKNESS VALUES...AND THE SHIFT TO NW
FLOW ACRS THE CWFA LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHT WARMING EFFECT. MOISTURE
DURING THE PERIOD IS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND THOUGH WELL
DEFINED LOBES OF VORTICITY PASS OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT THE MODELS ONLY SUPPORT PRECIP WHERE THESE FEATURES ENHANCE THE
FORCING PROVIDED BY CAA AND/OR HIGH-ELEVATION INSTABILITY. WE WILL
FEATURE LOW TENN BORDER POPS MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING TO THE REST OF
THE MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AREAS TUE...BEFORE THEY AGAIN
RETREAT TO THE BORDER AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS FOLLOWS THE COMBINED
TRENDS OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO...WITH MINS LOOKING TOO WARM FOR FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED-THU BEFORE LIFTING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
A NARROW RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE THEN BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TWO RIDGES EVENTUALLY MERGE
LEAVING MOST OF THE CONUS DRY AND WITH SETTLED WEATHER BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GFS/EC/GEFS ALL DO ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
SQUEEZE BETWEEN THOSE RIDGES AND THEN TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY. FOR NOW WPC FAVORS A SOLUTION WITH THE DOMINANT
RIDGE. AS FOR OUR AREA...AT THE SFC CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REINFORCE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE CWFA THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. EVEN IF THE CUTOFF LOW FORMS IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AN
IMPACT HERE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF DAY 7. EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LOW NW
FLOW POPS IN THE NRN MTNS EARLY WED...NO PRECIP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
TEMPS WILL SUBTLY WARM THRU THE PERIOD AS THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
MODIFIES. THERE HOWEVER MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS IN THE MTNS THU
MRNG UNDER EXCELLENT RADIATIVE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-
ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MUCH DRIER AIR PERSISTS...
ENSURING VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN N/NW AT 5-7 KTS AT MOST TERMINALS...BEFORE BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT/VRBL DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

AT KAVL...NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN THE TEENS LIKELY FROM MID-MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 15Z OR
SO...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
FOG AND/OR VISBY RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL...BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN
ATTM.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 191045
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TYPICAL
FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM...DESPITE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER (AT LEAST
ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE)...NW FLOW/UPSLOPE STRATOCU
PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS THEREFORE BEEN DELAYED
IN THE FORECAST...BUT CLEARING SHOULD NEVERTHELESS OCCUR RATHER
QUICKLY FROM MID-MORNING ON...WITH SUNNY SKIES LIKELY BY NOON IN ALL
LOCATIONS.

NW FLOW/UPSLOPE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SHALLOW WITH
TIME THIS MORNING...AS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SWIFTLY OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL
RETREAT AND DIMINISHING OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNDER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO THIS AFTERNOON.

BY THE END OF THE DAY...LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY...IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING STRONGLY OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS...ALONG WITH CIRRUS ATTENDING
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX...ARE THE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT IN TERMS OF
THE QUALITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL
NO DOUBT SEE /FROSTY/ TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS
BEEN SHUT OFF FOR THE SEASON IN THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE FROST
OR A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...SO NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN CONUS MONDAY
WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE MIDWEEK...AND A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY IN
SW FLOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THICKNESS VALUES...AND THE SHIFT TO NW
FLOW ACRS THE CWFA LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHT WARMING EFFECT. MOISTURE
DURING THE PERIOD IS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND THOUGH WELL
DEFINED LOBES OF VORTICITY PASS OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT THE MODELS ONLY SUPPORT PRECIP WHERE THESE FEATURES ENHANCE THE
FORCING PROVIDED BY CAA AND/OR HIGH-ELEVATION INSTABILITY. WE WILL
FEATURE LOW TENN BORDER POPS MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING TO THE REST OF
THE MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AREAS TUE...BEFORE THEY AGAIN
RETREAT TO THE BORDER AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS FOLLOWS THE COMBINED
TRENDS OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO...WITH MINS LOOKING TOO WARM FOR FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED-THU BEFORE LIFTING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
A NARROW RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE THEN BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TWO RIDGES EVENTUALLY MERGE
LEAVING MOST OF THE CONUS DRY AND WITH SETTLED WEATHER BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GFS/EC/GEFS ALL DO ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
SQUEEZE BETWEEN THOSE RIDGES AND THEN TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY. FOR NOW WPC FAVORS A SOLUTION WITH THE DOMINANT
RIDGE. AS FOR OUR AREA...AT THE SFC CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REINFORCE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE CWFA THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. EVEN IF THE CUTOFF LOW FORMS IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AN
IMPACT HERE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF DAY 7. EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LOW NW
FLOW POPS IN THE NRN MTNS EARLY WED...NO PRECIP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
TEMPS WILL SUBTLY WARM THRU THE PERIOD AS THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
MODIFIES. THERE HOWEVER MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS IN THE MTNS THU
MRNG UNDER EXCELLENT RADIATIVE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-
ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MUCH DRIER AIR PERSISTS...
ENSURING VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN N/NW AT 5-7 KTS AT MOST TERMINALS...BEFORE BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT/VRBL DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BY EVENING.

AT KAVL...NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN THE TEENS LIKELY FROM MID-MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 15Z OR
SO...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
FOG AND/OR VISBY RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL...BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN
ATTM.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 190734
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TYPICAL
FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NW FLOW/UPSLOPE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SHALLOW WITH
TIME THIS MORNING...AS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SWIFTLY OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL
RETREAT AND DIMINISHING OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNDER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO THIS AFTERNOON.

BY THE END OF THE DAY...LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY...IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING STRONGLY OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS...ALONG WITH CIRRUS ATTENDING
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX...ARE THE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT IN TERMS OF
THE QUALITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL
NO DOUBT SEE /FROSTY/ TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS
BEEN SHUT OFF FOR THE SEASON IN THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE FROST
OR A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...SO NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN CONUS MONDAY
WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE MIDWEEK...AND A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY IN
SW FLOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THICKNESS VALUES...AND THE SHIFT TO NW
FLOW ACRS THE CWFA LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHT WARMING EFFECT. MOISTURE
DURING THE PERIOD IS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND THOUGH WELL
DEFINED LOBES OF VORTICITY PASS OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT THE MODELS ONLY SUPPORT PRECIP WHERE THESE FEATURES ENHANCE THE
FORCING PROVIDED BY CAA AND/OR HIGH-ELEVATION INSTABILITY. WE WILL
FEATURE LOW TENN BORDER POPS MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING TO THE REST OF
THE MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AREAS TUE...BEFORE THEY AGAIN
RETREAT TO THE BORDER AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS FOLLOWS THE COMBINED
TRENDS OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO...WITH MINS LOOKING TOO WARM FOR FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED-THU BEFORE LIFTING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
A NARROW RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE THEN BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TWO RIDGES EVENTUALLY MERGE
LEAVING MOST OF THE CONUS DRY AND WITH SETTLED WEATHER BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GFS/EC/GEFS ALL DO ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
SQUEEZE BETWEEN THOSE RIDGES AND THEN TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY. FOR NOW WPC FAVORS A SOLUTION WITH THE DOMINANT
RIDGE. AS FOR OUR AREA...AT THE SFC CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REINFORCE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE CWFA THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. EVEN IF THE CUTOFF LOW FORMS IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AN
IMPACT HERE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF DAY 7. EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LOW NW
FLOW POPS IN THE NRN MTNS EARLY WED...NO PRECIP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
TEMPS WILL SUBTLY WARM THRU THE PERIOD AS THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
MODIFIES. THERE HOWEVER MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS IN THE MTNS THU
MRNG UNDER EXCELLENT RADIATIVE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-
ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...ENSURING VFR/SKC CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN N/NW AT 5-7 KTS AT
MOST TERMINALS...BEFORE BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT/VRBL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT SW BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

AT KAVL...GUSTY NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS...MAINTAINING LOW VFR...AND OCCL MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING. VFR/SKC CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING...WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 190734
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TYPICAL
FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NW FLOW/UPSLOPE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SHALLOW WITH
TIME THIS MORNING...AS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SWIFTLY OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL
RETREAT AND DIMINISHING OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNDER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO THIS AFTERNOON.

BY THE END OF THE DAY...LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY...IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING STRONGLY OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS...ALONG WITH CIRRUS ATTENDING
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX...ARE THE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT IN TERMS OF
THE QUALITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL
NO DOUBT SEE /FROSTY/ TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS
BEEN SHUT OFF FOR THE SEASON IN THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE FROST
OR A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...SO NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN CONUS MONDAY
WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE MIDWEEK...AND A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY IN
SW FLOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THICKNESS VALUES...AND THE SHIFT TO NW
FLOW ACRS THE CWFA LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHT WARMING EFFECT. MOISTURE
DURING THE PERIOD IS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND THOUGH WELL
DEFINED LOBES OF VORTICITY PASS OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT THE MODELS ONLY SUPPORT PRECIP WHERE THESE FEATURES ENHANCE THE
FORCING PROVIDED BY CAA AND/OR HIGH-ELEVATION INSTABILITY. WE WILL
FEATURE LOW TENN BORDER POPS MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING TO THE REST OF
THE MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AREAS TUE...BEFORE THEY AGAIN
RETREAT TO THE BORDER AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS FOLLOWS THE COMBINED
TRENDS OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO...WITH MINS LOOKING TOO WARM FOR FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED-THU BEFORE LIFTING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
A NARROW RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGE THEN BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TWO RIDGES EVENTUALLY MERGE
LEAVING MOST OF THE CONUS DRY AND WITH SETTLED WEATHER BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GFS/EC/GEFS ALL DO ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
SQUEEZE BETWEEN THOSE RIDGES AND THEN TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY. FOR NOW WPC FAVORS A SOLUTION WITH THE DOMINANT
RIDGE. AS FOR OUR AREA...AT THE SFC CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REINFORCE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE CWFA THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. EVEN IF THE CUTOFF LOW FORMS IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AN
IMPACT HERE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF DAY 7. EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LOW NW
FLOW POPS IN THE NRN MTNS EARLY WED...NO PRECIP WILL BE ADVERTISED.
TEMPS WILL SUBTLY WARM THRU THE PERIOD AS THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
MODIFIES. THERE HOWEVER MAY BE SOME FROST CONCERNS IN THE MTNS THU
MRNG UNDER EXCELLENT RADIATIVE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-
ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...ENSURING VFR/SKC CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN N/NW AT 5-7 KTS AT
MOST TERMINALS...BEFORE BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT/VRBL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT SW BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

AT KAVL...GUSTY NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS...MAINTAINING LOW VFR...AND OCCL MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING. VFR/SKC CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING...WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 190601
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM...LATEST WV IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...AND THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING PRECIP
CHANCES (SUCH AS THEY WERE) TO AN END. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN NEAR
FREEZING ABOVE ABOUT 5500 FEET...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME RIME ICING DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH NW FLOW/UPSLOPE STRATOCU
ON SOME OF THE EXPOSED PEAKS. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY SUNRISE.

AS OF 1035 PM...LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE MTNS...RAGGED CLOUD COVER EAST. RADAR DATA FROM
KMRX AND KGSP INDICATED VERY FEW RETURNS ACROSS THE MTNS. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST SKY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK.

AS OF 735 PM...AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
STRONG LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. I WILL FORECAST SCHC
TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH ISO COVERAGE SW ALONG THE TN
LINE. TEMPERATURES...TD...AND WIND APPEAR ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FINAL PIECE OF VORT ENERGY WILL ROTATE THRU THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
TONIGHT...GIVING RISE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF NC MTN SHOWERS IN
ADDITION TO THE EXPANSION OF UPSLOPE AIDED CLOUDINESS. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...A MIXED...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
SUNDAY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 OR 4 DEG F BELOW CLIMO. SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE DEAMPLIFYING FLOW AND SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. PIEDMONT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND INTO THE MTNS AS
UPSLOPE FLOW WANES. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO BE A FEW
CATEGORIES COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROF WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING OVERALL FLOW TO FLATTEN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGH WILL NOT BE IN THE BEST POSITION (MOVING TO OUR EAST)...AND H85
FLOW INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF...THERE SHOULD
BE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET ESPECIALLY
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN COOLER AND COOLER. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE GONE WITH ONE OF OUR COLDER MODEL TEMPERATURE SETS OF
GUIDE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA). RUNNING OUR FROSTY TOOL...WE GET PATCHY FROST IN
MANY AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED...AND
NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. AT LEAST AT THIS POINT I DO NOT HAVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED. SHOULD TEMPERATURE
TRENDS CONTINUE...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO HAVE SOME LIGHT FROST
ISSUES IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND OTHER COLDER LOCATIONS...SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...GUIDE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON PATCH
FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND WE WILL NOT FIGHT THE TREND.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
TO THE CENTRAL LAKES LATER MONDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY OVER OUR NC MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS READINGS.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MEAGER MOISTURE...BUT WITH
A DECENT LOBE OF VORTICITY RIDING THROUGH OUR REGION...A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF NC. ELSEWHERE...WE
WILL KEEP OTHER AREAS DRY...BUT WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A PARADE OF VORTICITY
SPOKES WILL GRAZE THE NC MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME LOW END POPS AT THOSE
PLACES TUESDAY. OUTSIDE THOSE AREAS SOME COLD AIR CU SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE OVERALL TROUGH NEARBY.

WE ARE CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDE BOTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER
CLOSED LOW JUST TO OUR NE TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY WED NIGHT...ALLOWING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE REGION THRU THIS
PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION...PUSHING A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT THRU DAY 7. IN ANY RATE...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WED...AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THRU SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-
ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...ENSURING VFR/SKC CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN N/NW AT 5-7 KTS AT
MOST TERMINALS...BEFORE BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT/VRBL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT SW BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

AT KAVL...GUSTY NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS...MAINTAINING LOW VFR...AND OCCL MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING. VFR/SKC CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING...WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 190601
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM...LATEST WV IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...AND THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING PRECIP
CHANCES (SUCH AS THEY WERE) TO AN END. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN NEAR
FREEZING ABOVE ABOUT 5500 FEET...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME RIME ICING DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH NW FLOW/UPSLOPE STRATOCU
ON SOME OF THE EXPOSED PEAKS. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY SUNRISE.

AS OF 1035 PM...LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE MTNS...RAGGED CLOUD COVER EAST. RADAR DATA FROM
KMRX AND KGSP INDICATED VERY FEW RETURNS ACROSS THE MTNS. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST SKY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK.

AS OF 735 PM...AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
STRONG LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. I WILL FORECAST SCHC
TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH ISO COVERAGE SW ALONG THE TN
LINE. TEMPERATURES...TD...AND WIND APPEAR ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FINAL PIECE OF VORT ENERGY WILL ROTATE THRU THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
TONIGHT...GIVING RISE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF NC MTN SHOWERS IN
ADDITION TO THE EXPANSION OF UPSLOPE AIDED CLOUDINESS. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...A MIXED...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
SUNDAY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 OR 4 DEG F BELOW CLIMO. SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE DEAMPLIFYING FLOW AND SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. PIEDMONT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND INTO THE MTNS AS
UPSLOPE FLOW WANES. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO BE A FEW
CATEGORIES COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROF WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING OVERALL FLOW TO FLATTEN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGH WILL NOT BE IN THE BEST POSITION (MOVING TO OUR EAST)...AND H85
FLOW INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF...THERE SHOULD
BE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET ESPECIALLY
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN COOLER AND COOLER. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE GONE WITH ONE OF OUR COLDER MODEL TEMPERATURE SETS OF
GUIDE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA). RUNNING OUR FROSTY TOOL...WE GET PATCHY FROST IN
MANY AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED...AND
NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. AT LEAST AT THIS POINT I DO NOT HAVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED. SHOULD TEMPERATURE
TRENDS CONTINUE...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO HAVE SOME LIGHT FROST
ISSUES IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND OTHER COLDER LOCATIONS...SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...GUIDE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON PATCH
FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND WE WILL NOT FIGHT THE TREND.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
TO THE CENTRAL LAKES LATER MONDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY OVER OUR NC MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS READINGS.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MEAGER MOISTURE...BUT WITH
A DECENT LOBE OF VORTICITY RIDING THROUGH OUR REGION...A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF NC. ELSEWHERE...WE
WILL KEEP OTHER AREAS DRY...BUT WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A PARADE OF VORTICITY
SPOKES WILL GRAZE THE NC MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME LOW END POPS AT THOSE
PLACES TUESDAY. OUTSIDE THOSE AREAS SOME COLD AIR CU SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE OVERALL TROUGH NEARBY.

WE ARE CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDE BOTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER
CLOSED LOW JUST TO OUR NE TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY WED NIGHT...ALLOWING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE REGION THRU THIS
PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION...PUSHING A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT THRU DAY 7. IN ANY RATE...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WED...AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THRU SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-
ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...ENSURING VFR/SKC CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN N/NW AT 5-7 KTS AT
MOST TERMINALS...BEFORE BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT/VRBL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT SW BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

AT KAVL...GUSTY NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS...MAINTAINING LOW VFR...AND OCCL MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING. VFR/SKC CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING...WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 190240
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1040 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM...LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE MTNS...RAGGED CLOUD COVER EAST. RADAR DATA FROM
KMRX AND KGSP INDICATED VERY FEW RETURNS ACROSS THE MTNS. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST SKY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK.

AS OF 735 PM...AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
STRONG LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. I WILL FORECAST SCHC
TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH ISO COVERAGE SW ALONG THE TN
LINE. TEMPERATURES...TD...AND WIND APPEAR ON TRACK.

     PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FINAL PIECE OF VORT ENERGY WILL ROTATE THRU THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
TONIGHT...GIVING RISE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF NC MTN SHOWERS IN
ADDITION TO THE EXPANSION OF UPSLOPE AIDED CLOUDINESS. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...A MIXED...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
SUNDAY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 OR 4 DEG F BELOW CLIMO. SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE DEAMPLIFYING FLOW AND SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. PIEDMONT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND INTO THE MTNS AS
UPSLOPE FLOW WANES. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO BE A FEW
CATEGORIES COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROF WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING OVERALL FLOW TO FLATTEN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGH WILL NOT BE IN THE BEST POSITION (MOVING TO OUR EAST)...AND H85
FLOW INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF...THERE SHOULD
BE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET ESPECIALLY
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN COOLER AND COOLER. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE GONE WITH ONE OF OUR COLDER MODEL TEMPERATURE SETS OF
GUIDE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA). RUNNING OUR FROSTY TOOL...WE GET PATCHY FROST IN
MANY AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED...AND
NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. AT LEAST AT THIS POINT I DO NOT HAVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED. SHOULD TEMPERATURE
TRENDS CONTINUE...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO HAVE SOME LIGHT FROST
ISSUES IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND OTHER COLDER LOCATIONS...SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...GUIDE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON PATCH
FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND WE WILL NOT FIGHT THE TREND.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
TO THE CENTRAL LAKES LATER MONDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY OVER OUR NC MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS READINGS.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MEAGER MOISTURE...BUT WITH
A DECENT LOBE OF VORTICITY RIDING THROUGH OUR REGION...A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF NC. ELSEWHERE...WE
WILL KEEP OTHER AREAS DRY...BUT WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A PARADE OF VORTICITY
SPOKES WILL GRAZE THE NC MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME LOW END POPS AT THOSE
PLACES TUESDAY. OUTSIDE THOSE AREAS SOME COLD AIR CU SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE OVERALL TROUGH NEARBY.

WE ARE CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDE BOTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER
CLOSED LOW JUST TO OUR NE TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY WED NIGHT...ALLOWING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE REGION THRU THIS
PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION...PUSHING A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT THRU DAY 7. IN ANY RATE...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WED...AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THRU SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL GENERATE STRONG LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. I WILL
FORECAST SCHC TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH ISO COVERAGE SW
ALONG THE TN LINE. KAVL MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES EXPECTED SUNDAY THRU THROUGH
TUESDAY. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...NED








000
FXUS62 KGSP 190240
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1040 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM...LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE MTNS...RAGGED CLOUD COVER EAST. RADAR DATA FROM
KMRX AND KGSP INDICATED VERY FEW RETURNS ACROSS THE MTNS. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST SKY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK.

AS OF 735 PM...AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
STRONG LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. I WILL FORECAST SCHC
TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH ISO COVERAGE SW ALONG THE TN
LINE. TEMPERATURES...TD...AND WIND APPEAR ON TRACK.

     PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FINAL PIECE OF VORT ENERGY WILL ROTATE THRU THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
TONIGHT...GIVING RISE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF NC MTN SHOWERS IN
ADDITION TO THE EXPANSION OF UPSLOPE AIDED CLOUDINESS. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...A MIXED...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
SUNDAY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 OR 4 DEG F BELOW CLIMO. SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE DEAMPLIFYING FLOW AND SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. PIEDMONT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND INTO THE MTNS AS
UPSLOPE FLOW WANES. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO BE A FEW
CATEGORIES COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROF WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING OVERALL FLOW TO FLATTEN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGH WILL NOT BE IN THE BEST POSITION (MOVING TO OUR EAST)...AND H85
FLOW INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF...THERE SHOULD
BE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET ESPECIALLY
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN COOLER AND COOLER. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE GONE WITH ONE OF OUR COLDER MODEL TEMPERATURE SETS OF
GUIDE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA). RUNNING OUR FROSTY TOOL...WE GET PATCHY FROST IN
MANY AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED...AND
NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. AT LEAST AT THIS POINT I DO NOT HAVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED. SHOULD TEMPERATURE
TRENDS CONTINUE...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO HAVE SOME LIGHT FROST
ISSUES IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND OTHER COLDER LOCATIONS...SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...GUIDE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON PATCH
FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND WE WILL NOT FIGHT THE TREND.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
TO THE CENTRAL LAKES LATER MONDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY OVER OUR NC MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS READINGS.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MEAGER MOISTURE...BUT WITH
A DECENT LOBE OF VORTICITY RIDING THROUGH OUR REGION...A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF NC. ELSEWHERE...WE
WILL KEEP OTHER AREAS DRY...BUT WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A PARADE OF VORTICITY
SPOKES WILL GRAZE THE NC MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME LOW END POPS AT THOSE
PLACES TUESDAY. OUTSIDE THOSE AREAS SOME COLD AIR CU SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE OVERALL TROUGH NEARBY.

WE ARE CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDE BOTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER
CLOSED LOW JUST TO OUR NE TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY WED NIGHT...ALLOWING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE REGION THRU THIS
PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION...PUSHING A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT THRU DAY 7. IN ANY RATE...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WED...AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THRU SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL GENERATE STRONG LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. I WILL
FORECAST SCHC TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH ISO COVERAGE SW
ALONG THE TN LINE. KAVL MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES EXPECTED SUNDAY THRU THROUGH
TUESDAY. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 182339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM...AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
STRONG LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. I WILL FORECAST SCHC
TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH ISO COVERAGE SW ALONG THE TN
LINE. TEMPERATURES...TD...AND WIND APPEAR ON TRACK.

     PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FINAL PIECE OF VORT ENERGY WILL ROTATE THRU THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
TONIGHT...GIVING RISE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF NC MTN SHOWERS IN
ADDITION TO THE EXPANSION OF UPSLOPE AIDED CLOUDINESS. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...A MIXED...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
SUNDAY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 OR 4 DEG F BELOW CLIMO. SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE DEAMPLIFYING FLOW AND SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. PIEDMONT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND INTO THE MTNS AS
UPSLOPE FLOW WANES. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO BE A FEW
CATEGORIES COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROF WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING OVERALL FLOW TO FLATTEN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGH WILL NOT BE IN THE BEST POSITION (MOVING TO OUR EAST)...AND H85
FLOW INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF...THERE SHOULD
BE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET ESPECIALLY
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN COOLER AND COOLER. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE GONE WITH ONE OF OUR COLDER MODEL TEMPERATURE SETS OF
GUIDE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA). RUNNING OUR FROSTY TOOL...WE GET PATCHY FROST IN
MANY AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED...AND
NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. AT LEAST AT THIS POINT I DO NOT HAVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED. SHOULD TEMPERATURE
TRENDS CONTINUE...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO HAVE SOME LIGHT FROST
ISSUES IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND OTHER COLDER LOCATIONS...SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...GUIDE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON PATCH
FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND WE WILL NOT FIGHT THE TREND.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
TO THE CENTRAL LAKES LATER MONDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY OVER OUR NC MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS READINGS.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MEAGER MOISTURE...BUT WITH
A DECENT LOBE OF VORTICITY RIDING THROUGH OUR REGION...A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF NC. ELSEWHERE...WE
WILL KEEP OTHER AREAS DRY...BUT WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A PARADE OF VORTICITY
SPOKES WILL GRAZE THE NC MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME LOW END POPS AT THOSE
PLACES TUESDAY. OUTSIDE THOSE AREAS SOME COLD AIR CU SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE OVERALL TROUGH NEARBY.

WE ARE CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDE BOTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER
CLOSED LOW JUST TO OUR NE TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY WED NIGHT...ALLOWING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE REGION THRU THIS
PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION...PUSHING A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT THRU DAY 7. IN ANY RATE...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WED...AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THRU SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL GENERATE STRONG LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. I WILL
FORECAST SCHC TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH ISO COVERAGE SW
ALONG THE TN LINE. KAVL MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES EXPECTED SUNDAY THRU THROUGH
TUESDAY. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  82%     MED   66%     MED   61%     LOW   58%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...NED








000
FXUS62 KGSP 182339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM...AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
STRONG LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. I WILL FORECAST SCHC
TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH ISO COVERAGE SW ALONG THE TN
LINE. TEMPERATURES...TD...AND WIND APPEAR ON TRACK.

     PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FINAL PIECE OF VORT ENERGY WILL ROTATE THRU THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
TONIGHT...GIVING RISE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF NC MTN SHOWERS IN
ADDITION TO THE EXPANSION OF UPSLOPE AIDED CLOUDINESS. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...A MIXED...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
SUNDAY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 OR 4 DEG F BELOW CLIMO. SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE DEAMPLIFYING FLOW AND SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. PIEDMONT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND INTO THE MTNS AS
UPSLOPE FLOW WANES. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO BE A FEW
CATEGORIES COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROF WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING OVERALL FLOW TO FLATTEN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGH WILL NOT BE IN THE BEST POSITION (MOVING TO OUR EAST)...AND H85
FLOW INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF...THERE SHOULD
BE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET ESPECIALLY
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN COOLER AND COOLER. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE GONE WITH ONE OF OUR COLDER MODEL TEMPERATURE SETS OF
GUIDE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA). RUNNING OUR FROSTY TOOL...WE GET PATCHY FROST IN
MANY AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED...AND
NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. AT LEAST AT THIS POINT I DO NOT HAVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED. SHOULD TEMPERATURE
TRENDS CONTINUE...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO HAVE SOME LIGHT FROST
ISSUES IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND OTHER COLDER LOCATIONS...SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...GUIDE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON PATCH
FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND WE WILL NOT FIGHT THE TREND.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
TO THE CENTRAL LAKES LATER MONDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY OVER OUR NC MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS READINGS.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MEAGER MOISTURE...BUT WITH
A DECENT LOBE OF VORTICITY RIDING THROUGH OUR REGION...A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF NC. ELSEWHERE...WE
WILL KEEP OTHER AREAS DRY...BUT WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A PARADE OF VORTICITY
SPOKES WILL GRAZE THE NC MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME LOW END POPS AT THOSE
PLACES TUESDAY. OUTSIDE THOSE AREAS SOME COLD AIR CU SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE OVERALL TROUGH NEARBY.

WE ARE CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDE BOTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER
CLOSED LOW JUST TO OUR NE TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY WED NIGHT...ALLOWING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE REGION THRU THIS
PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION...PUSHING A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT THRU DAY 7. IN ANY RATE...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WED...AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THRU SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL GENERATE STRONG LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. I WILL
FORECAST SCHC TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH ISO COVERAGE SW
ALONG THE TN LINE. KAVL MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH SW WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES EXPECTED SUNDAY THRU THROUGH
TUESDAY. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  82%     MED   66%     MED   61%     LOW   58%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 181850
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FINAL PIECE OF VORT ENERGY WILL ROTATE THRU THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
TONIGHT...GIVING RISE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF NC MTN SHOWERS IN
ADDITION TO THE EXPANSION OF UPSLOPE AIDED CLOUDINESS. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...A MIXED...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
SUNDAY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 OR 4 DEG F BELOW CLIMO. SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE DEAMPLIFYING FLOW AND SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. PIEDMONT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND INTO THE MTNS AS
UPSLOPE FLOW WANES. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO BE A FEW
CATEGORIES COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROF WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING OVERALL FLOW TO FLATTEN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGH WILL NOT BE IN THE BEST POSITION (MOVING TO OUR EAST)...AND H85
FLOW INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF...THERE SHOULD
BE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET ESPECIALLY
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN COOLER AND COOLER. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE GONE WITH ONE OF OUR COLDER MODEL TEMPERATURE SETS OF
GUIDE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS...AND
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA
(FA). RUNNING OUR FROSTY TOOL...WE GET PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS
OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED...AND NOT
MUCH ELSEWHERE. AT LEAST AT THIS POINT I DO NOT HAVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED. SHOULD TEMPERATURE
TRENDS CONTINUE...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO HAVE SOME LIGHT
FROST ISSUES IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND OTHER COLDER LOCATIONS...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...GUIDE CONTINUES TO
INSIST ON PATCH FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND WE WILL NOT FIGHT
THE TREND.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
TO THE CENTRAL LAKES LATER MONDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY OVER OUR NC MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS READINGS.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MEAGER MOISTURE...BUT WITH
A DECENT LOBE OF VORTICITY RIDING THROUGH OUR REGION...A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF NC. ELSEWHERE...WE
WILL KEEP OTHER AREAS DRY...BUT WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A PARADE OF VORTICITY
SPOKES WILL GRAZE THE NC MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME LOW END POPS AT THOSE
PLACES TUESDAY. OUTSIDE THOSE AREAS SOME COLD AIR CU SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE OVERALL TROUGH NEARBY.

WE ARE CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDE TEMPERATURES BOTH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER
CLOSED LOW JUST TO OUR NE TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY WED NIGHT...ALLOWING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE REGION THRU THIS
PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION...PUSHING A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT THRU DAY 7. IN ANY RATE...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WED...AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THRU SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND THE FOOTHILL TERMINALS...JUST A FEW CU THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE NORTH
AGAIN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MTNS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATION
LIKELY. IMPROVED WX IN ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE
AND LESS WIND.

OUTLOOK...STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES EXPECTED SUNDAY THRU THROUGH
TUESDAY. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     MED   69%     MED   61%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...CSH







000
FXUS62 KGSP 181850
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FINAL PIECE OF VORT ENERGY WILL ROTATE THRU THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
TONIGHT...GIVING RISE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF NC MTN SHOWERS IN
ADDITION TO THE EXPANSION OF UPSLOPE AIDED CLOUDINESS. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...A MIXED...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
SUNDAY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 OR 4 DEG F BELOW CLIMO. SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE DEAMPLIFYING FLOW AND SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. PIEDMONT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND INTO THE MTNS AS
UPSLOPE FLOW WANES. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO BE A FEW
CATEGORIES COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROF WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING OVERALL FLOW TO FLATTEN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGH WILL NOT BE IN THE BEST POSITION (MOVING TO OUR EAST)...AND H85
FLOW INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF...THERE SHOULD
BE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET ESPECIALLY
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN COOLER AND COOLER. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE GONE WITH ONE OF OUR COLDER MODEL TEMPERATURE SETS OF
GUIDE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS...AND
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA
(FA). RUNNING OUR FROSTY TOOL...WE GET PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS
OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED...AND NOT
MUCH ELSEWHERE. AT LEAST AT THIS POINT I DO NOT HAVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED. SHOULD TEMPERATURE
TRENDS CONTINUE...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO HAVE SOME LIGHT
FROST ISSUES IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND OTHER COLDER LOCATIONS...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...GUIDE CONTINUES TO
INSIST ON PATCH FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND WE WILL NOT FIGHT
THE TREND.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
TO THE CENTRAL LAKES LATER MONDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY OVER OUR NC MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS READINGS.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MEAGER MOISTURE...BUT WITH
A DECENT LOBE OF VORTICITY RIDING THROUGH OUR REGION...A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF NC. ELSEWHERE...WE
WILL KEEP OTHER AREAS DRY...BUT WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A PARADE OF VORTICITY
SPOKES WILL GRAZE THE NC MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME LOW END POPS AT THOSE
PLACES TUESDAY. OUTSIDE THOSE AREAS SOME COLD AIR CU SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE OVERALL TROUGH NEARBY.

WE ARE CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDE TEMPERATURES BOTH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER
CLOSED LOW JUST TO OUR NE TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY WED NIGHT...ALLOWING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE REGION THRU THIS
PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION...PUSHING A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT THRU DAY 7. IN ANY RATE...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WED...AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THRU SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND THE FOOTHILL TERMINALS...JUST A FEW CU THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE NORTH
AGAIN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MTNS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATION
LIKELY. IMPROVED WX IN ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE
AND LESS WIND.

OUTLOOK...STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES EXPECTED SUNDAY THRU THROUGH
TUESDAY. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     MED   69%     MED   61%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...CSH








000
FXUS62 KGSP 181748
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...ADVECTION OF LOWER SFC DWPTS WITHIN POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SENSIBLE WX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE LIMITED JUST TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED LOW END
WNW WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH TYPICAL MID-OCTOBER MAX TEMPERATURES.

TEMPORARILY WANING UPSLOPE NC MTN STRATOCU WILL EXPAND AGAIN AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AS EXPANSIVE CAA LOW CLOUDS ADVECT SE. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE FORCED BY THE NW
FLOW.

AS OF 645 AM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FUSS. NW/UPSLOPE FLOW
STRATOCU WILL LINGER NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...
BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT MID-AUTUMN MORNING AWAITS...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE EARLY 60S IN THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS
TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS BY NOON.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORN
BELT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FEATURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...ESSENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW STRATOCU ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS NW FLOW MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY
THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY
STRONG NW FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH EXTENDING TO ABOVE 800 MB SUPPORTS
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. BY THE TIME ANY
SHOWERS COME TO AN END...A PERIOD OF RIME ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG/NEAR THE TENN BORDER...WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN COLD
ADVECTION REGIME...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD SEE NEAR
NORMAL MAXES...FOLLOWED BY MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...FROM TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH WHICH THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE WILL CLOSE OFF EARLY WED.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS
OCCURS. CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND
THOUGH SOME LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE SHOWN CIRCULATING IT AND OVER OUR
CWFA...THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WHILE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THRU TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS STILL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO. LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR NORTH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS MOST PLENTIFUL WITH THE FRONT. A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY WED.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR WED
AND THU AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SEASONABLE FROST-FREEZE
CONCERNS FOR THU MORNING. HOWEVER A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
TO END THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND THE FOOTHILL TERMINALS...JUST A FEW CU THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE NORTH
AGAIN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MTNS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATION
LIKELY. IMPROVED WX IN ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE
AND LESS WIND.

OUTLOOK...STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES EXPECTED SUNDAY THRU THROUGH
TUESDAY. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     MED   66%     LOW   55%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CSH/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH/JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 181748
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...ADVECTION OF LOWER SFC DWPTS WITHIN POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SENSIBLE WX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE LIMITED JUST TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED LOW END
WNW WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH TYPICAL MID-OCTOBER MAX TEMPERATURES.

TEMPORARILY WANING UPSLOPE NC MTN STRATOCU WILL EXPAND AGAIN AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AS EXPANSIVE CAA LOW CLOUDS ADVECT SE. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE FORCED BY THE NW
FLOW.

AS OF 645 AM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FUSS. NW/UPSLOPE FLOW
STRATOCU WILL LINGER NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...
BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT MID-AUTUMN MORNING AWAITS...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE EARLY 60S IN THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS
TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS BY NOON.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORN
BELT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FEATURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...ESSENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW STRATOCU ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS NW FLOW MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY
THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY
STRONG NW FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH EXTENDING TO ABOVE 800 MB SUPPORTS
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. BY THE TIME ANY
SHOWERS COME TO AN END...A PERIOD OF RIME ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG/NEAR THE TENN BORDER...WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN COLD
ADVECTION REGIME...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD SEE NEAR
NORMAL MAXES...FOLLOWED BY MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...FROM TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH WHICH THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE WILL CLOSE OFF EARLY WED.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS
OCCURS. CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND
THOUGH SOME LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE SHOWN CIRCULATING IT AND OVER OUR
CWFA...THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WHILE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THRU TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS STILL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO. LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR NORTH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS MOST PLENTIFUL WITH THE FRONT. A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY WED.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR WED
AND THU AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SEASONABLE FROST-FREEZE
CONCERNS FOR THU MORNING. HOWEVER A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
TO END THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND THE FOOTHILL TERMINALS...JUST A FEW CU THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE NORTH
AGAIN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MTNS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATION
LIKELY. IMPROVED WX IN ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE
AND LESS WIND.

OUTLOOK...STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES EXPECTED SUNDAY THRU THROUGH
TUESDAY. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     MED   66%     LOW   55%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CSH/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH/JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 181748
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...ADVECTION OF LOWER SFC DWPTS WITHIN POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SENSIBLE WX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE LIMITED JUST TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED LOW END
WNW WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH TYPICAL MID-OCTOBER MAX TEMPERATURES.

TEMPORARILY WANING UPSLOPE NC MTN STRATOCU WILL EXPAND AGAIN AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AS EXPANSIVE CAA LOW CLOUDS ADVECT SE. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE FORCED BY THE NW
FLOW.

AS OF 645 AM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FUSS. NW/UPSLOPE FLOW
STRATOCU WILL LINGER NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...
BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT MID-AUTUMN MORNING AWAITS...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE EARLY 60S IN THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS
TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS BY NOON.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORN
BELT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FEATURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...ESSENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW STRATOCU ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS NW FLOW MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY
THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY
STRONG NW FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH EXTENDING TO ABOVE 800 MB SUPPORTS
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. BY THE TIME ANY
SHOWERS COME TO AN END...A PERIOD OF RIME ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG/NEAR THE TENN BORDER...WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN COLD
ADVECTION REGIME...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD SEE NEAR
NORMAL MAXES...FOLLOWED BY MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...FROM TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH WHICH THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE WILL CLOSE OFF EARLY WED.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS
OCCURS. CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND
THOUGH SOME LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE SHOWN CIRCULATING IT AND OVER OUR
CWFA...THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WHILE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THRU TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS STILL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO. LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR NORTH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS MOST PLENTIFUL WITH THE FRONT. A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY WED.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR WED
AND THU AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SEASONABLE FROST-FREEZE
CONCERNS FOR THU MORNING. HOWEVER A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
TO END THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND THE FOOTHILL TERMINALS...JUST A FEW CU THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE NORTH
AGAIN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MTNS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATION
LIKELY. IMPROVED WX IN ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE
AND LESS WIND.

OUTLOOK...STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES EXPECTED SUNDAY THRU THROUGH
TUESDAY. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     MED   66%     LOW   55%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CSH/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH/JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 181748
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION. DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...ADVECTION OF LOWER SFC DWPTS WITHIN POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SENSIBLE WX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE LIMITED JUST TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED LOW END
WNW WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH TYPICAL MID-OCTOBER MAX TEMPERATURES.

TEMPORARILY WANING UPSLOPE NC MTN STRATOCU WILL EXPAND AGAIN AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AS EXPANSIVE CAA LOW CLOUDS ADVECT SE. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE FORCED BY THE NW
FLOW.

AS OF 645 AM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FUSS. NW/UPSLOPE FLOW
STRATOCU WILL LINGER NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...
BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT MID-AUTUMN MORNING AWAITS...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE EARLY 60S IN THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS
TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS BY NOON.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORN
BELT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FEATURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...ESSENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW STRATOCU ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS NW FLOW MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY
THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY
STRONG NW FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH EXTENDING TO ABOVE 800 MB SUPPORTS
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. BY THE TIME ANY
SHOWERS COME TO AN END...A PERIOD OF RIME ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG/NEAR THE TENN BORDER...WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN COLD
ADVECTION REGIME...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD SEE NEAR
NORMAL MAXES...FOLLOWED BY MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...FROM TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH WHICH THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE WILL CLOSE OFF EARLY WED.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS
OCCURS. CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND
THOUGH SOME LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE SHOWN CIRCULATING IT AND OVER OUR
CWFA...THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WHILE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THRU TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS STILL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO. LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR NORTH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS MOST PLENTIFUL WITH THE FRONT. A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY WED.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR WED
AND THU AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SEASONABLE FROST-FREEZE
CONCERNS FOR THU MORNING. HOWEVER A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
TO END THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND THE FOOTHILL TERMINALS...JUST A FEW CU THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE NORTH
AGAIN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MTNS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATION
LIKELY. IMPROVED WX IN ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE
AND LESS WIND.

OUTLOOK...STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES EXPECTED SUNDAY THRU THROUGH
TUESDAY. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     MED   66%     LOW   55%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CSH/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH/JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 181446
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1046 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE
REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...ADVECTION OF LOWER SFC DWPTS WITHIN POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SENSIBLE WX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE LIMITED JUST TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED LOW END
WNW WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH TYPICAL MID-OCTOBER MAX TEMPERATURES.

TEMPORARILY WANING UPSLOPE NC MTN STRATOCU WILL EXPAND AGAIN AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AS EXPANSIVE CAA LOW CLOUDS ADVECT SE. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE FORCED BY THE NW
FLOW.

AS OF 645 AM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FUSS. NW/UPSLOPE FLOW
STRATOCU WILL LINGER NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...
BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT MID-AUTUMN MORNING AWAITS...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE EARLY 60S IN THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS
TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS BY NOON.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORN
BELT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FEATURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...ESSENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW STRATOCU ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS NW FLOW MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY
THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY
STRONG NW FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH EXTENDING TO ABOVE 800 MB SUPPORTS
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. BY THE TIME ANY
SHOWERS COME TO AN END...A PERIOD OF RIME ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG/NEAR THE TENN BORDER...WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN COLD
ADVECTION REGIME...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD SEE NEAR
NORMAL MAXES...FOLLOWED BY MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...FROM TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH WHICH THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE WILL CLOSE OFF EARLY WED.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS
OCCURS. CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND
THOUGH SOME LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE SHOWN CIRCULATING IT AND OVER OUR
CWFA...THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WHILE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THRU TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS STILL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO. LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR NORTH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS MOST PLENTIFUL WITH THE FRONT. A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY WED.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR WED
AND THU AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SEASONABLE FROST-FREEZE
CONCERNS FOR THU MORNING. HOWEVER A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
TO END THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A VFR FORECAST WILL BE CARRIED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
WITH LITTLE FANFARE THIS MORNING...TURNING THE WINDS TOWARD THE W OR
W/NW AT 6-10 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY
TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTS IN THE TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KAVL. NC MTN
UPSLOPE STRATOCU WILL DECREASE SOME THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWER POSSIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OR SO. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   61%     LOW   45%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CSH/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH/JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 181446
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1046 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE
REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...ADVECTION OF LOWER SFC DWPTS WITHIN POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SENSIBLE WX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE LIMITED JUST TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED LOW END
WNW WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH TYPICAL MID-OCTOBER MAX TEMPERATURES.

TEMPORARILY WANING UPSLOPE NC MTN STRATOCU WILL EXPAND AGAIN AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AS EXPANSIVE CAA LOW CLOUDS ADVECT SE. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE FORCED BY THE NW
FLOW.

AS OF 645 AM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FUSS. NW/UPSLOPE FLOW
STRATOCU WILL LINGER NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...
BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT MID-AUTUMN MORNING AWAITS...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE EARLY 60S IN THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS
TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS BY NOON.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORN
BELT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FEATURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...ESSENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW STRATOCU ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS NW FLOW MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY
THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY
STRONG NW FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH EXTENDING TO ABOVE 800 MB SUPPORTS
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. BY THE TIME ANY
SHOWERS COME TO AN END...A PERIOD OF RIME ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG/NEAR THE TENN BORDER...WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN COLD
ADVECTION REGIME...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD SEE NEAR
NORMAL MAXES...FOLLOWED BY MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...FROM TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH WHICH THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE WILL CLOSE OFF EARLY WED.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS
OCCURS. CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND
THOUGH SOME LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE SHOWN CIRCULATING IT AND OVER OUR
CWFA...THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WHILE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THRU TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS STILL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO. LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR NORTH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS MOST PLENTIFUL WITH THE FRONT. A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY WED.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR WED
AND THU AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SEASONABLE FROST-FREEZE
CONCERNS FOR THU MORNING. HOWEVER A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
TO END THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A VFR FORECAST WILL BE CARRIED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
WITH LITTLE FANFARE THIS MORNING...TURNING THE WINDS TOWARD THE W OR
W/NW AT 6-10 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY
TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTS IN THE TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KAVL. NC MTN
UPSLOPE STRATOCU WILL DECREASE SOME THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWER POSSIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OR SO. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   61%     LOW   45%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CSH/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH/JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 181446
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1046 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE
REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...ADVECTION OF LOWER SFC DWPTS WITHIN POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SENSIBLE WX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE LIMITED JUST TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED LOW END
WNW WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH TYPICAL MID-OCTOBER MAX TEMPERATURES.

TEMPORARILY WANING UPSLOPE NC MTN STRATOCU WILL EXPAND AGAIN AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AS EXPANSIVE CAA LOW CLOUDS ADVECT SE. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE FORCED BY THE NW
FLOW.

AS OF 645 AM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FUSS. NW/UPSLOPE FLOW
STRATOCU WILL LINGER NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...
BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT MID-AUTUMN MORNING AWAITS...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE EARLY 60S IN THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS
TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS BY NOON.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORN
BELT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FEATURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...ESSENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW STRATOCU ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS NW FLOW MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY
THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY
STRONG NW FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH EXTENDING TO ABOVE 800 MB SUPPORTS
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. BY THE TIME ANY
SHOWERS COME TO AN END...A PERIOD OF RIME ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG/NEAR THE TENN BORDER...WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN COLD
ADVECTION REGIME...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD SEE NEAR
NORMAL MAXES...FOLLOWED BY MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...FROM TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH WHICH THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE WILL CLOSE OFF EARLY WED.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS
OCCURS. CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND
THOUGH SOME LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE SHOWN CIRCULATING IT AND OVER OUR
CWFA...THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WHILE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THRU TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS STILL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO. LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR NORTH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS MOST PLENTIFUL WITH THE FRONT. A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY WED.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR WED
AND THU AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SEASONABLE FROST-FREEZE
CONCERNS FOR THU MORNING. HOWEVER A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
TO END THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A VFR FORECAST WILL BE CARRIED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
WITH LITTLE FANFARE THIS MORNING...TURNING THE WINDS TOWARD THE W OR
W/NW AT 6-10 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY
TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTS IN THE TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KAVL. NC MTN
UPSLOPE STRATOCU WILL DECREASE SOME THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWER POSSIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OR SO. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   61%     LOW   45%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CSH/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH/JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 181446
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1046 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE
REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...ADVECTION OF LOWER SFC DWPTS WITHIN POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SENSIBLE WX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE LIMITED JUST TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED LOW END
WNW WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH TYPICAL MID-OCTOBER MAX TEMPERATURES.

TEMPORARILY WANING UPSLOPE NC MTN STRATOCU WILL EXPAND AGAIN AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AS EXPANSIVE CAA LOW CLOUDS ADVECT SE. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE FORCED BY THE NW
FLOW.

AS OF 645 AM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FUSS. NW/UPSLOPE FLOW
STRATOCU WILL LINGER NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...
BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT MID-AUTUMN MORNING AWAITS...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE EARLY 60S IN THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS
TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS BY NOON.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORN
BELT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FEATURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...ESSENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW STRATOCU ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS NW FLOW MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY
THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY
STRONG NW FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH EXTENDING TO ABOVE 800 MB SUPPORTS
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. BY THE TIME ANY
SHOWERS COME TO AN END...A PERIOD OF RIME ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG/NEAR THE TENN BORDER...WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN COLD
ADVECTION REGIME...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD SEE NEAR
NORMAL MAXES...FOLLOWED BY MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...FROM TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH WHICH THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE WILL CLOSE OFF EARLY WED.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS
OCCURS. CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND
THOUGH SOME LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE SHOWN CIRCULATING IT AND OVER OUR
CWFA...THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WHILE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THRU TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS STILL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO. LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR NORTH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS MOST PLENTIFUL WITH THE FRONT. A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY WED.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR WED
AND THU AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SEASONABLE FROST-FREEZE
CONCERNS FOR THU MORNING. HOWEVER A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
TO END THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A VFR FORECAST WILL BE CARRIED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
WITH LITTLE FANFARE THIS MORNING...TURNING THE WINDS TOWARD THE W OR
W/NW AT 6-10 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY
TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTS IN THE TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KAVL. NC MTN
UPSLOPE STRATOCU WILL DECREASE SOME THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWER POSSIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OR SO. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   61%     LOW   45%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CSH/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH/JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 181119
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
719 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE
REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FUSS. NW/UPSLOPE FLOW
STRATOCU WILL LINGER NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...
BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT MID-AUTUMN MORNING AWAITS...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE EARLY 60S IN THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS
TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS BY NOON.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORN
BELT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FEATURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...ESSENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW STRATOCU ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS NW FLOW MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY
THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY
STRONG NW FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH EXTENDING TO ABOVE 800 MB SUPPORTS
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. BY THE TIME ANY
SHOWERS COME TO AN END...A PERIOD OF RIME ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG/NEAR THE TENN BORDER...WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN COLD
ADVECTION REGIME...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD SEE NEAR
NORMAL MAXES...FOLLOWED BY MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...FROM TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH WHICH THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE WILL CLOSE OFF EARLY WED.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS
OCCURS. CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND
THOUGH SOME LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE SHOWN CIRCULATING IT AND OVER OUR
CWFA...THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WHILE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THRU TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS STILL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO. LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR NORTH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS MOST PLENTIFUL WITH THE FRONT. A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY WED.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR WED
AND THU AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SEASONABLE FROST-FREEZE
CONCERNS FOR THU MORNING. HOWEVER A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
TO END THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WINDS VERY LIGHT AT KCLT AND THE UPSTATE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ALLOWING TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS TO FALL TO
1-2 DEGREES AT MOST SITES. PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEGUN TO FORM AT A
FEW NON-TAF LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
REDUCED VSBY THIS MORNING...BUT DON/T THINK IT/S LIKELY...AND A VFR
FORECAST WILL BE CARRIED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE FANFARE
THIS MORNING...TURNING THE WINDS TOWARD THE W OR W/NW AT 6-10 KTS AT
ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTH AND WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS IN THE TEENS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KAVL. A SHOWER AND LAYER OF MVFR
STRATOCU DEVELOPING NEAR THE TENN BORDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
COULD DRIFT TOWARD KAVL...BUT WE WILL JUST ADVERTISE A SCT/BKN LOW
VFR CLOUDS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OR SO. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     LOW   51%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 181119
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
719 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE
REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FUSS. NW/UPSLOPE FLOW
STRATOCU WILL LINGER NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...
BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT MID-AUTUMN MORNING AWAITS...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE EARLY 60S IN THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS
TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS BY NOON.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORN
BELT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FEATURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...ESSENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW STRATOCU ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS NW FLOW MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY
THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY
STRONG NW FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH EXTENDING TO ABOVE 800 MB SUPPORTS
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. BY THE TIME ANY
SHOWERS COME TO AN END...A PERIOD OF RIME ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG/NEAR THE TENN BORDER...WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN COLD
ADVECTION REGIME...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD SEE NEAR
NORMAL MAXES...FOLLOWED BY MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...FROM TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH WHICH THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE WILL CLOSE OFF EARLY WED.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS
OCCURS. CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND
THOUGH SOME LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE SHOWN CIRCULATING IT AND OVER OUR
CWFA...THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WHILE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THRU TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS STILL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO. LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR NORTH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS MOST PLENTIFUL WITH THE FRONT. A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY WED.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR WED
AND THU AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SEASONABLE FROST-FREEZE
CONCERNS FOR THU MORNING. HOWEVER A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
TO END THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WINDS VERY LIGHT AT KCLT AND THE UPSTATE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ALLOWING TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS TO FALL TO
1-2 DEGREES AT MOST SITES. PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEGUN TO FORM AT A
FEW NON-TAF LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
REDUCED VSBY THIS MORNING...BUT DON/T THINK IT/S LIKELY...AND A VFR
FORECAST WILL BE CARRIED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE FANFARE
THIS MORNING...TURNING THE WINDS TOWARD THE W OR W/NW AT 6-10 KTS AT
ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTH AND WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS IN THE TEENS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KAVL. A SHOWER AND LAYER OF MVFR
STRATOCU DEVELOPING NEAR THE TENN BORDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
COULD DRIFT TOWARD KAVL...BUT WE WILL JUST ADVERTISE A SCT/BKN LOW
VFR CLOUDS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OR SO. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     LOW   51%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL






000
FXUS62 KGSP 181119
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
719 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE
REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FUSS. NW/UPSLOPE FLOW
STRATOCU WILL LINGER NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...
BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT MID-AUTUMN MORNING AWAITS...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE EARLY 60S IN THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS
TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS BY NOON.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORN
BELT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FEATURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...ESSENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW STRATOCU ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS NW FLOW MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY
THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY
STRONG NW FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH EXTENDING TO ABOVE 800 MB SUPPORTS
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. BY THE TIME ANY
SHOWERS COME TO AN END...A PERIOD OF RIME ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG/NEAR THE TENN BORDER...WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN COLD
ADVECTION REGIME...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD SEE NEAR
NORMAL MAXES...FOLLOWED BY MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...FROM TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH WHICH THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE WILL CLOSE OFF EARLY WED.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS
OCCURS. CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND
THOUGH SOME LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE SHOWN CIRCULATING IT AND OVER OUR
CWFA...THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WHILE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THRU TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS STILL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO. LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR NORTH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS MOST PLENTIFUL WITH THE FRONT. A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY WED.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR WED
AND THU AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SEASONABLE FROST-FREEZE
CONCERNS FOR THU MORNING. HOWEVER A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
TO END THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WINDS VERY LIGHT AT KCLT AND THE UPSTATE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ALLOWING TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS TO FALL TO
1-2 DEGREES AT MOST SITES. PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEGUN TO FORM AT A
FEW NON-TAF LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
REDUCED VSBY THIS MORNING...BUT DON/T THINK IT/S LIKELY...AND A VFR
FORECAST WILL BE CARRIED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE FANFARE
THIS MORNING...TURNING THE WINDS TOWARD THE W OR W/NW AT 6-10 KTS AT
ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTH AND WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS IN THE TEENS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KAVL. A SHOWER AND LAYER OF MVFR
STRATOCU DEVELOPING NEAR THE TENN BORDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
COULD DRIFT TOWARD KAVL...BUT WE WILL JUST ADVERTISE A SCT/BKN LOW
VFR CLOUDS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OR SO. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     LOW   51%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 181119
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
719 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE
REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FUSS. NW/UPSLOPE FLOW
STRATOCU WILL LINGER NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...
BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT MID-AUTUMN MORNING AWAITS...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE EARLY 60S IN THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS
TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS BY NOON.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORN
BELT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FEATURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...ESSENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW STRATOCU ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS NW FLOW MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY
THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY
STRONG NW FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH EXTENDING TO ABOVE 800 MB SUPPORTS
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. BY THE TIME ANY
SHOWERS COME TO AN END...A PERIOD OF RIME ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG/NEAR THE TENN BORDER...WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN COLD
ADVECTION REGIME...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD SEE NEAR
NORMAL MAXES...FOLLOWED BY MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...FROM TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH WHICH THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE WILL CLOSE OFF EARLY WED.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS
OCCURS. CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND
THOUGH SOME LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE SHOWN CIRCULATING IT AND OVER OUR
CWFA...THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WHILE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THRU TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS STILL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO. LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR NORTH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS MOST PLENTIFUL WITH THE FRONT. A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY WED.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR WED
AND THU AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SEASONABLE FROST-FREEZE
CONCERNS FOR THU MORNING. HOWEVER A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
TO END THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WINDS VERY LIGHT AT KCLT AND THE UPSTATE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ALLOWING TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS TO FALL TO
1-2 DEGREES AT MOST SITES. PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEGUN TO FORM AT A
FEW NON-TAF LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
REDUCED VSBY THIS MORNING...BUT DON/T THINK IT/S LIKELY...AND A VFR
FORECAST WILL BE CARRIED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE FANFARE
THIS MORNING...TURNING THE WINDS TOWARD THE W OR W/NW AT 6-10 KTS AT
ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTH AND WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS IN THE TEENS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KAVL. A SHOWER AND LAYER OF MVFR
STRATOCU DEVELOPING NEAR THE TENN BORDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
COULD DRIFT TOWARD KAVL...BUT WE WILL JUST ADVERTISE A SCT/BKN LOW
VFR CLOUDS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OR SO. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     LOW   51%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL






000
FXUS62 KGSP 180737
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE
REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORN
BELT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FEATURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...ESSENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW STRATOCU ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS NW FLOW MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY
THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY
STRONG NW FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH EXTENDING TO ABOVE 800 MB SUPPORTS
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. BY THE TIME ANY
SHOWERS COME TO AN END...A PERIOD OF RIME ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG/NEAR THE TENN BORDER...WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN COLD
ADVECTION REGIME...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD SEE NEAR
NORMAL MAXES...FOLLOWED BY MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...FROM TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH WHICH THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE WILL CLOSE OFF EARLY WED.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS
OCCURS. CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND
THOUGH SOME LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE SHOWN CIRCULATING IT AND OVER OUR
CWFA...THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WHILE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THRU TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS STILL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO. LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR NORTH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS MOST PLENTIFUL WITH THE FRONT. A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY WED.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR WED
AND THU AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SEASONABLE FROST-FREEZE
CONCERNS FOR THU MORNING. HOWEVER A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
TO END THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SW WINDS (NW AT KAVL) ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS...DESPITE DEWPOINTS
THAT ARE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...EXCEPT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
NC MTNS (IN OTHER WORDS...AT K1A5). I SUPPOSE I WOULDN/T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT KHKY...BUT EVEN THIS IS UNLIKELY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE W OR W/NW AT 6-10 KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SHOWER AND LAYER OF MVFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TENN BORDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT COULD DRIFT
TOWARD KAVL...BUT WE WILL JUST ADVERTISE A SCT VFR LAYER FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OR SO. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL






000
FXUS62 KGSP 180737
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE
REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORN
BELT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FEATURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...ESSENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW STRATOCU ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS NW FLOW MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY
THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY
STRONG NW FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH EXTENDING TO ABOVE 800 MB SUPPORTS
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. BY THE TIME ANY
SHOWERS COME TO AN END...A PERIOD OF RIME ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG/NEAR THE TENN BORDER...WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN COLD
ADVECTION REGIME...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD SEE NEAR
NORMAL MAXES...FOLLOWED BY MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...FROM TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH WHICH THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE WILL CLOSE OFF EARLY WED.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS
OCCURS. CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND
THOUGH SOME LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE SHOWN CIRCULATING IT AND OVER OUR
CWFA...THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WHILE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THRU TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS STILL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO. LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR NORTH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS MOST PLENTIFUL WITH THE FRONT. A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY WED.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR WED
AND THU AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SEASONABLE FROST-FREEZE
CONCERNS FOR THU MORNING. HOWEVER A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
TO END THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SW WINDS (NW AT KAVL) ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS...DESPITE DEWPOINTS
THAT ARE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...EXCEPT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
NC MTNS (IN OTHER WORDS...AT K1A5). I SUPPOSE I WOULDN/T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT KHKY...BUT EVEN THIS IS UNLIKELY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE W OR W/NW AT 6-10 KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SHOWER AND LAYER OF MVFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TENN BORDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT COULD DRIFT
TOWARD KAVL...BUT WE WILL JUST ADVERTISE A SCT VFR LAYER FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OR SO. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   65%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 180557
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM...W/NW LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT...HAS RESULTING IN EXPANSION OF UPSLOPE STRATOCU ACROSS
THE NC MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SMALL AREA OF MTN
WAVE CIRRUS HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE BALSAMS/PISGAH RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MTNS...
GENERALLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...AND PARTLY CLOUDY
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS. DESPITE ELEVATED DEW POINTS...LIGHT FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG CONCERNS THIS MORNING...EXCEPT IN CERTAIN
SHELTERED VALLEYS (I.E. THE LITTLE TENN). WIND AND/OR CLOUDS AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN MIN TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.

AS OF 1035 PM...LATEST SATELLITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLEAR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE
SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS MIDDLE KY/WESTERN TN. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOW COOL AS LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. MINS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U40S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID
50S EAST.

AS OF 745 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TONIGHT...SWEEPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE SAT.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING MORNING FROPA...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 9 MPH. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK...MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO ALIGN WITH T/TD OBS.

AS OF 430 PM...LATEST SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE PEAKED...COOLING WILL BEGIN OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS OF 230 PM...NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW RAGGED SC IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE SHOULD
PASS BY WELL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...IT WILL HELP TO DRIVE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN
OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN
A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. THE MTNS
WILL FEEL THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED UP THE WEST SLOPES BY
STRONG NW WIND THAT SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE REGIONS NEAR THE TN BORDER. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP MAINLY OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES LOWER THAN FRIDAY. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
EXPECT GUSTY W TO NW WINDS FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. DOWNSLOPE
WARMING WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEARLY THE SAME AS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RAPIDLY DIGGING SE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SAT EVENING WITH SOME
DPVA SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN NC. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH...THE DPVA COUPLED WITH NW UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SAT EVENING. OTHERWISE...DEEP
LAYER W-NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND INHIBIT ANY PRECIP.

AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GA. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S ON THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH 40S IN THE LOWER
MTN VALLEYS...FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SUNDAY WILL HAVE NEARLY 100
PERCENT INSOLATION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD BUT MAX TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT BELOW CLIMO. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT...MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP AGAIN INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S IN THE
MTNS...AND LOWER-MID 40S FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS WITH THE LIGHT LIGHTS. TEMPS WILL WARM A
CATEGORY OR SO ON MONDAY AND APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRI...GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. A DEEP UPPER LOW FORMS OVER
THE ERN OH VALLEY OR MID ATLANTIC STATES TUE. THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO
THE NJ COAST WED...SLOWLY MOVES OFF SHORE THU...THEN MOVES EITHER UP
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRI OR EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. SOME STRONG
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU
BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY FRI LEAVING NWLY FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE
SFC...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA TUE. NLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WED AND THU WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN ON FRI. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
LITTLE TO NOW GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO BEST CHC OF PRECIP
WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE MTNS...WITH SOME PRECIP SPILLING OUT
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TUE AND TUE NITE. PRECIP SHUD
END BY WED NITE AS MOISTURE PULLS OUT WITH THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MON NITE...THEN
FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS WED AND THU NITES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SW WINDS (NW AT KAVL) ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS...DESPITE DEWPOINTS
THAT ARE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...EXCEPT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
NC MTNS (IN OTHER WORDS...AT K1A5). I SUPPOSE I WOULDN/T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT KHKY...BUT EVEN THIS IS UNLIKELY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE W OR W/NW AT 6-10 KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SHOWER AND LAYER OF MVFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TENN BORDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT COULD DRIFT
TOWARD KAVL...BUT WE WILL JUST ADVERTISE A SCT VFR LAYER FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OR SO. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED/PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL







000
FXUS62 KGSP 180557
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM...W/NW LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT...HAS RESULTING IN EXPANSION OF UPSLOPE STRATOCU ACROSS
THE NC MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SMALL AREA OF MTN
WAVE CIRRUS HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE BALSAMS/PISGAH RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MTNS...
GENERALLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...AND PARTLY CLOUDY
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS. DESPITE ELEVATED DEW POINTS...LIGHT FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG CONCERNS THIS MORNING...EXCEPT IN CERTAIN
SHELTERED VALLEYS (I.E. THE LITTLE TENN). WIND AND/OR CLOUDS AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN MIN TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.

AS OF 1035 PM...LATEST SATELLITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLEAR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE
SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS MIDDLE KY/WESTERN TN. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOW COOL AS LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. MINS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U40S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID
50S EAST.

AS OF 745 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TONIGHT...SWEEPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE SAT.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING MORNING FROPA...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 9 MPH. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK...MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO ALIGN WITH T/TD OBS.

AS OF 430 PM...LATEST SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE PEAKED...COOLING WILL BEGIN OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS OF 230 PM...NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW RAGGED SC IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE SHOULD
PASS BY WELL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...IT WILL HELP TO DRIVE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN
OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN
A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. THE MTNS
WILL FEEL THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED UP THE WEST SLOPES BY
STRONG NW WIND THAT SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE REGIONS NEAR THE TN BORDER. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP MAINLY OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES LOWER THAN FRIDAY. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
EXPECT GUSTY W TO NW WINDS FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. DOWNSLOPE
WARMING WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEARLY THE SAME AS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RAPIDLY DIGGING SE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SAT EVENING WITH SOME
DPVA SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN NC. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH...THE DPVA COUPLED WITH NW UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SAT EVENING. OTHERWISE...DEEP
LAYER W-NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND INHIBIT ANY PRECIP.

AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GA. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S ON THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH 40S IN THE LOWER
MTN VALLEYS...FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SUNDAY WILL HAVE NEARLY 100
PERCENT INSOLATION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD BUT MAX TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT BELOW CLIMO. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT...MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP AGAIN INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S IN THE
MTNS...AND LOWER-MID 40S FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS WITH THE LIGHT LIGHTS. TEMPS WILL WARM A
CATEGORY OR SO ON MONDAY AND APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRI...GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. A DEEP UPPER LOW FORMS OVER
THE ERN OH VALLEY OR MID ATLANTIC STATES TUE. THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO
THE NJ COAST WED...SLOWLY MOVES OFF SHORE THU...THEN MOVES EITHER UP
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRI OR EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. SOME STRONG
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU
BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY FRI LEAVING NWLY FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE
SFC...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA TUE. NLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WED AND THU WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN ON FRI. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
LITTLE TO NOW GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO BEST CHC OF PRECIP
WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE MTNS...WITH SOME PRECIP SPILLING OUT
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TUE AND TUE NITE. PRECIP SHUD
END BY WED NITE AS MOISTURE PULLS OUT WITH THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MON NITE...THEN
FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS WED AND THU NITES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SW WINDS (NW AT KAVL) ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS...DESPITE DEWPOINTS
THAT ARE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...EXCEPT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
NC MTNS (IN OTHER WORDS...AT K1A5). I SUPPOSE I WOULDN/T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT KHKY...BUT EVEN THIS IS UNLIKELY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE W OR W/NW AT 6-10 KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SHOWER AND LAYER OF MVFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TENN BORDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT COULD DRIFT
TOWARD KAVL...BUT WE WILL JUST ADVERTISE A SCT VFR LAYER FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OR SO. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED/PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 180240
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1040 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM...LATEST SATELLITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLEAR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE
SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS MIDDLE KY/WESTERN TN. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOW COOL AS LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. MINS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U40S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID
50S EAST.

AS OF 745 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TONIGHT...SWEEPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE SAT.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING MORNING FROPA...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 9 MPH. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK...MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO ALIGN WITH T/TD OBS.

AS OF 430 PM...LATEST SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE PEAKED...COOLING WILL BEGIN OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS OF 230 PM...NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW RAGGED SC IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE SHOULD
PASS BY WELL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...IT WILL HELP TO DRIVE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN
OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN
A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. THE MTNS
WILL FEEL THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED UP THE WEST SLOPES BY
STRONG NW WIND THAT SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE REGIONS NEAR THE TN BORDER. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP MAINLY OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES LOWER THAN FRIDAY. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
EXPECT GUSTY W TO NW WINDS FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. DOWNSLOPE
WARMING WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEARLY THE SAME AS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RAPIDLY DIGGING SE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SAT EVENING WITH SOME
DPVA SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN NC. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH...THE DPVA COUPLED WITH NW UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SAT EVENING. OTHERWISE...DEEP
LAYER W-NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND INHIBIT ANY PRECIP.

AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GA. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S ON THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH 40S IN THE LOWER
MTN VALLEYS...FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SUNDAY WILL HAVE NEARLY 100
PERCENT INSOLATION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD BUT MAX TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT BELOW CLIMO. WITH GOOD RADIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT...MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP AGAIN INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S IN THE
MTNS...AND LOWER-MID 40S FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS WITH THE LIGHT LIGHTS. TEMPS WILL WARM A
CATEGORY OR SO ON MONDAY AND APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRI...GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. A DEEP UPPER LOW FORMS OVER
THE ERN OH VALLEY OR MID ATLANTIC STATES TUE. THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO
THE NJ COAST WED...SLOWLY MOVES OFF SHORE THU...THEN MOVES EITHER UP
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRI OR EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. SOME STRONG
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU
BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY FRI LEAVING NWLY FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE
SFC...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA TUE. NLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WED AND THU WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN ON FRI. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
LITTLE TO NOW GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO BEST CHC OF PRECIP
WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE MTNS...WITH SOME PRECIP SPILLING OUT
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TUE AND TUE NITE. PRECIP SHUD
END BY WED NITE AS MOISTURE PULLS OUT WITH THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MON NITE...THEN
FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS WED AND THU NITES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TONIGHT...SWEEPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE SAT.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING MORNING FROPA...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 9 MPH. SKY AND VIS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR APART FROM PERHAPS SOME LOW STRATUS
AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...NED







000
FXUS62 KGSP 180240
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1040 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM...LATEST SATELLITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLEAR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE
SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS MIDDLE KY/WESTERN TN. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOW COOL AS LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. MINS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE U40S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID
50S EAST.

AS OF 745 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TONIGHT...SWEEPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE SAT.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING MORNING FROPA...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 9 MPH. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK...MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO ALIGN WITH T/TD OBS.

AS OF 430 PM...LATEST SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE PEAKED...COOLING WILL BEGIN OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS OF 230 PM...NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW RAGGED SC IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE SHOULD
PASS BY WELL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...IT WILL HELP TO DRIVE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN
OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN
A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. THE MTNS
WILL FEEL THE GREATEST AFFECTS FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED UP THE WEST SLOPES BY
STRONG NW WIND THAT SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE REGIONS NEAR THE TN BORDER. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP MAINLY OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES LOWER THAN FRIDAY. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...
EXPECT GUSTY W TO NW WINDS FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. DOWNSLOPE
WARMING WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEARLY THE SAME AS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RAPIDLY DIGGING SE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SAT EVENING WITH SOME
DPVA SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN NC. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH...THE DPVA COUPLED WITH NW UPSLOPE FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SAT EVENING. OTHERWISE...DEEP
LAYER W-NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND INHIBIT ANY PRECIP.

AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GA. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S ON THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH 40S IN THE LOWER
MTN VALLEYS...FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SUNDAY WILL HAVE NEARLY 100
PERCENT INSOLATION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD BUT MAX TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT BELOW CLIMO. WITH GOOD RADIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT...MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP AGAIN INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S IN THE
MTNS...AND LOWER-MID 40S FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS WITH THE LIGHT LIGHTS. TEMPS WILL WARM A
CATEGORY OR SO ON MONDAY AND APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRI...GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. A DEEP UPPER LOW FORMS OVER
THE ERN OH VALLEY OR MID ATLANTIC STATES TUE. THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO
THE NJ COAST WED...SLOWLY MOVES OFF SHORE THU...THEN MOVES EITHER UP
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRI OR EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. SOME STRONG
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU
BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY FRI LEAVING NWLY FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE
SFC...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA TUE. NLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WED AND THU WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN ON FRI. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
LITTLE TO NOW GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO BEST CHC OF PRECIP
WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE MTNS...WITH SOME PRECIP SPILLING OUT
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TUE AND TUE NITE. PRECIP SHUD
END BY WED NITE AS MOISTURE PULLS OUT WITH THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MON NITE...THEN
FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS WED AND THU NITES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TONIGHT...SWEEPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE SAT.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING MORNING FROPA...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 9 MPH. SKY AND VIS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR APART FROM PERHAPS SOME LOW STRATUS
AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH MORNING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...NED








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities