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000
FXUS62 KGSP 312316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSES OVER THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE PRECIPIATION CHANCES
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
2315 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM
MODEL DATA. POPS WERE UPDATED FROM RADAR TRENDS...AND SKY COVER
WAS UPDATED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 230 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A FEW CU OVER GRAHAM COUNTY. LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE FORECAST AREA WAS CAPE FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW VALUES EXISTED ACROSS EASTERN TN SOUTH ACROSS AL AND
NW GA. RECENT RUNS OF CAMS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION THE DEVELOP
ALONG AN OLD FRONT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST...MISSING THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...IT APPEARS THE CAMS ARE CORRECT.
OTHERWISE...DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND 1Z...SETTLING FROM
THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WEAK CAPE MAY POOL ACROSS THE
TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. THE 12Z 4KM WRF INDICATES THAT WEAK
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
BETWEEN 3Z TO 8Z. THE NAM AND GFS ARE GENERALLY ON BOARD WITH THE 4
KM WRF. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS AND NEARLY ZERO CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON...I ASSUME THAT INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE TO EXIST PAST
MIDNIGHT. I WILL INDICATE CHC TO SCHC ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WITH NO MENTION AFTER 5Z. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE THAT RAIN FALLS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE U30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND NE GA.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW BL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW TO MID 70S
ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH RISING THICKNESSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE MID
SOUTH. WAVETRAIN SLIDES QUICKLY EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
SHORTWAVE DAMPS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR ALL GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FINGER OF STABILITY PERSISTS JUST IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS INCREASE SBCAPE VALUES
ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA... WITH NAM
PUSHING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. GFS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THAT WITH
ONLY LIMITED SBCAPE VALUES PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRIED TO REFLECT A COMPROMISE WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH SPC DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...BRINGING GENERAL THUNDER INTO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR /GENERALLY LESS THAN 35KT 0-6KM/ COINCIDES WITH THESE
ENCROACHING SBCAPE VALUES SO WHILE AT THIS TIME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF LOWERING HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE FALLING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING LEAVING
WEAK NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE ESPECIALLY INTO THE
PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. SOME CONCERN STILL ON TIMING WITH THE GFS 6-12 HOURS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF /THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND FOR THE PAST FEW
RUNS/ BUT IN ANY CASE SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. SKY COVER WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A LOW VFR CIG. THE WIND WILL
VEER FROM SW TO NW TONIGHT...AND NE BY DAYBREAK...BUT WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A VSBY RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SKY COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT...BUT ENOUGH FOR A LOW VFR CIG AT KAVL ONLY. FOOTHILLS WINDS
WILL VEER FROM SW TO NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE BY DAWN....AND SE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KAVL WINDS WILL BO NW EARLY AND REMAIN THERE
UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THEY GO SE AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 312316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSES OVER THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE PRECIPIATION CHANCES
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
2315 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM
MODEL DATA. POPS WERE UPDATED FROM RADAR TRENDS...AND SKY COVER
WAS UPDATED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS OF 230 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A FEW CU OVER GRAHAM COUNTY. LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE FORECAST AREA WAS CAPE FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW VALUES EXISTED ACROSS EASTERN TN SOUTH ACROSS AL AND
NW GA. RECENT RUNS OF CAMS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION THE DEVELOP
ALONG AN OLD FRONT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST...MISSING THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...IT APPEARS THE CAMS ARE CORRECT.
OTHERWISE...DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND 1Z...SETTLING FROM
THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WEAK CAPE MAY POOL ACROSS THE
TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. THE 12Z 4KM WRF INDICATES THAT WEAK
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
BETWEEN 3Z TO 8Z. THE NAM AND GFS ARE GENERALLY ON BOARD WITH THE 4
KM WRF. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS AND NEARLY ZERO CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON...I ASSUME THAT INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE TO EXIST PAST
MIDNIGHT. I WILL INDICATE CHC TO SCHC ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WITH NO MENTION AFTER 5Z. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE THAT RAIN FALLS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE U30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND NE GA.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW BL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW TO MID 70S
ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH RISING THICKNESSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE MID
SOUTH. WAVETRAIN SLIDES QUICKLY EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
SHORTWAVE DAMPS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR ALL GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FINGER OF STABILITY PERSISTS JUST IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS INCREASE SBCAPE VALUES
ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA... WITH NAM
PUSHING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. GFS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THAT WITH
ONLY LIMITED SBCAPE VALUES PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRIED TO REFLECT A COMPROMISE WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH SPC DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...BRINGING GENERAL THUNDER INTO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR /GENERALLY LESS THAN 35KT 0-6KM/ COINCIDES WITH THESE
ENCROACHING SBCAPE VALUES SO WHILE AT THIS TIME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF LOWERING HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE FALLING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING LEAVING
WEAK NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE ESPECIALLY INTO THE
PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. SOME CONCERN STILL ON TIMING WITH THE GFS 6-12 HOURS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF /THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND FOR THE PAST FEW
RUNS/ BUT IN ANY CASE SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. SKY COVER WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A LOW VFR CIG. THE WIND WILL
VEER FROM SW TO NW TONIGHT...AND NE BY DAYBREAK...BUT WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A VSBY RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SKY COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT...BUT ENOUGH FOR A LOW VFR CIG AT KAVL ONLY. FOOTHILLS WINDS
WILL VEER FROM SW TO NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE BY DAWN....AND SE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KAVL WINDS WILL BO NW EARLY AND REMAIN THERE
UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THEY GO SE AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 312005
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSES OVER THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE PRECIPIATION CHANCES
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
2000 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS REDUCED PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HOWEVER CLOUDS TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO INCREASE PER
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS OF 230 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A FEW CU OVER GRAHAM COUNTY. LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE FORECAST AREA WAS CAPE FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW VALUES EXISTED ACROSS EASTERN TN SOUTH ACROSS AL AND
NW GA. RECENT RUNS OF CAMS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION THE DEVELOP
ALONG AN OLD FRONT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST...MISSING THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...IT APPEARS THE CAMS ARE CORRECT.
OTHERWISE...DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND 1Z...SETTLING FROM
THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WEAK CAPE MAY POOL ACROSS THE
TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. THE 12Z 4KM WRF INDICATES THAT WEAK
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
BETWEEN 3Z TO 8Z. THE NAM AND GFS ARE GENERALLY ON BOARD WITH THE 4
KM WRF. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS AND NEARLY ZERO CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON...I ASSUME THAT INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE TO EXIST PAST
MIDNIGHT. I WILL INDICATE CHC TO SCHC ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WITH NO MENTION AFTER 5Z. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE THAT RAIN FALLS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE U30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND NE GA.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW BL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW TO MID 70S
ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH RISING THICKNESSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE MID
SOUTH. WAVETRAIN SLIDES QUICKLY EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
SHORTWAVE DAMPS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR ALL GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FINGER OF STABILITY PERSISTS JUST IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS INCREASE SBCAPE VALUES
ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA... WITH NAM
PUSHING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. GFS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THAT WITH
ONLY LIMITED SBCAPE VALUES PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRIED TO REFLECT A COMPROMISE WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH SPC DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...BRINGING GENERAL THUNDER INTO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR /GENERALLY LESS THAN 35KT 0-6KM/ COINCIDES WITH THESE
ENCROACHING SBCAPE VALUES SO WHILE AT THIS TIME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF LOWERING HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE FALLING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING LEAVING
WEAK NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE ESPECIALLY INTO THE
PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. SOME CONCERN STILL ON TIMING WITH THE GFS 6-12 HOURS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF /THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND FOR THE PAST FEW
RUNS/ BUT IN ANY CASE SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 18Z PACKAGE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND
1Z...SETTLING FROM THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. FEW
TO SCT CU MAY EXIST BETWEEN 050-060 KFT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS...REMAINING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 312005
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSES OVER THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE PRECIPIATION CHANCES
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
2000 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS REDUCED PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HOWEVER CLOUDS TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO INCREASE PER
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS OF 230 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A FEW CU OVER GRAHAM COUNTY. LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE FORECAST AREA WAS CAPE FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW VALUES EXISTED ACROSS EASTERN TN SOUTH ACROSS AL AND
NW GA. RECENT RUNS OF CAMS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION THE DEVELOP
ALONG AN OLD FRONT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST...MISSING THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...IT APPEARS THE CAMS ARE CORRECT.
OTHERWISE...DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND 1Z...SETTLING FROM
THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WEAK CAPE MAY POOL ACROSS THE
TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. THE 12Z 4KM WRF INDICATES THAT WEAK
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
BETWEEN 3Z TO 8Z. THE NAM AND GFS ARE GENERALLY ON BOARD WITH THE 4
KM WRF. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS AND NEARLY ZERO CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON...I ASSUME THAT INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE TO EXIST PAST
MIDNIGHT. I WILL INDICATE CHC TO SCHC ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WITH NO MENTION AFTER 5Z. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE THAT RAIN FALLS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE U30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND NE GA.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW BL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW TO MID 70S
ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH RISING THICKNESSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE MID
SOUTH. WAVETRAIN SLIDES QUICKLY EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
SHORTWAVE DAMPS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR ALL GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FINGER OF STABILITY PERSISTS JUST IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS INCREASE SBCAPE VALUES
ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA... WITH NAM
PUSHING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. GFS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THAT WITH
ONLY LIMITED SBCAPE VALUES PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRIED TO REFLECT A COMPROMISE WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH SPC DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...BRINGING GENERAL THUNDER INTO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR /GENERALLY LESS THAN 35KT 0-6KM/ COINCIDES WITH THESE
ENCROACHING SBCAPE VALUES SO WHILE AT THIS TIME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF LOWERING HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE FALLING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING LEAVING
WEAK NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE ESPECIALLY INTO THE
PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. SOME CONCERN STILL ON TIMING WITH THE GFS 6-12 HOURS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF /THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND FOR THE PAST FEW
RUNS/ BUT IN ANY CASE SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 18Z PACKAGE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND
1Z...SETTLING FROM THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. FEW
TO SCT CU MAY EXIST BETWEEN 050-060 KFT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS...REMAINING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 312005
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSES OVER THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE PRECIPIATION CHANCES
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
2000 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS REDUCED PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HOWEVER CLOUDS TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO INCREASE PER
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS OF 230 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A FEW CU OVER GRAHAM COUNTY. LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE FORECAST AREA WAS CAPE FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW VALUES EXISTED ACROSS EASTERN TN SOUTH ACROSS AL AND
NW GA. RECENT RUNS OF CAMS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION THE DEVELOP
ALONG AN OLD FRONT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST...MISSING THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...IT APPEARS THE CAMS ARE CORRECT.
OTHERWISE...DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND 1Z...SETTLING FROM
THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WEAK CAPE MAY POOL ACROSS THE
TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. THE 12Z 4KM WRF INDICATES THAT WEAK
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
BETWEEN 3Z TO 8Z. THE NAM AND GFS ARE GENERALLY ON BOARD WITH THE 4
KM WRF. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS AND NEARLY ZERO CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON...I ASSUME THAT INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE TO EXIST PAST
MIDNIGHT. I WILL INDICATE CHC TO SCHC ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WITH NO MENTION AFTER 5Z. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE THAT RAIN FALLS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE U30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND NE GA.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW BL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW TO MID 70S
ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH RISING THICKNESSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE MID
SOUTH. WAVETRAIN SLIDES QUICKLY EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
SHORTWAVE DAMPS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR ALL GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FINGER OF STABILITY PERSISTS JUST IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS INCREASE SBCAPE VALUES
ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA... WITH NAM
PUSHING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. GFS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THAT WITH
ONLY LIMITED SBCAPE VALUES PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRIED TO REFLECT A COMPROMISE WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH SPC DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...BRINGING GENERAL THUNDER INTO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR /GENERALLY LESS THAN 35KT 0-6KM/ COINCIDES WITH THESE
ENCROACHING SBCAPE VALUES SO WHILE AT THIS TIME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF LOWERING HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE FALLING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING LEAVING
WEAK NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE ESPECIALLY INTO THE
PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. SOME CONCERN STILL ON TIMING WITH THE GFS 6-12 HOURS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF /THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND FOR THE PAST FEW
RUNS/ BUT IN ANY CASE SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 18Z PACKAGE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND
1Z...SETTLING FROM THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. FEW
TO SCT CU MAY EXIST BETWEEN 050-060 KFT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS...REMAINING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 312005
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSES OVER THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE PRECIPIATION CHANCES
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
2000 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS REDUCED PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HOWEVER CLOUDS TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO INCREASE PER
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS OF 230 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A FEW CU OVER GRAHAM COUNTY. LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE FORECAST AREA WAS CAPE FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW VALUES EXISTED ACROSS EASTERN TN SOUTH ACROSS AL AND
NW GA. RECENT RUNS OF CAMS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION THE DEVELOP
ALONG AN OLD FRONT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST...MISSING THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...IT APPEARS THE CAMS ARE CORRECT.
OTHERWISE...DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND 1Z...SETTLING FROM
THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WEAK CAPE MAY POOL ACROSS THE
TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. THE 12Z 4KM WRF INDICATES THAT WEAK
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
BETWEEN 3Z TO 8Z. THE NAM AND GFS ARE GENERALLY ON BOARD WITH THE 4
KM WRF. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS AND NEARLY ZERO CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON...I ASSUME THAT INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE TO EXIST PAST
MIDNIGHT. I WILL INDICATE CHC TO SCHC ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WITH NO MENTION AFTER 5Z. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE THAT RAIN FALLS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE U30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND NE GA.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW BL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW TO MID 70S
ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH RISING THICKNESSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE MID
SOUTH. WAVETRAIN SLIDES QUICKLY EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
SHORTWAVE DAMPS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR ALL GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FINGER OF STABILITY PERSISTS JUST IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS INCREASE SBCAPE VALUES
ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA... WITH NAM
PUSHING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. GFS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THAT WITH
ONLY LIMITED SBCAPE VALUES PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRIED TO REFLECT A COMPROMISE WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH SPC DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...BRINGING GENERAL THUNDER INTO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR /GENERALLY LESS THAN 35KT 0-6KM/ COINCIDES WITH THESE
ENCROACHING SBCAPE VALUES SO WHILE AT THIS TIME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF LOWERING HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE FALLING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING LEAVING
WEAK NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE ESPECIALLY INTO THE
PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. SOME CONCERN STILL ON TIMING WITH THE GFS 6-12 HOURS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF /THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND FOR THE PAST FEW
RUNS/ BUT IN ANY CASE SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 18Z PACKAGE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND
1Z...SETTLING FROM THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. FEW
TO SCT CU MAY EXIST BETWEEN 050-060 KFT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS...REMAINING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311919
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSES OVER THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE PRECIPIATION CHANCES
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OF 230 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A FEW CU OVER GRAHAM COUNTY. LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE FORECAST AREA WAS CAPE FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW VALUES EXISTED ACROSS EASTERN TN SOUTH ACROSS AL AND
NW GA. RECENT RUNS OF CAMS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION THE DEVELOP
ALONG AN OLD FRONT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST...MISSING THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...IT APPEARS THE CAMS ARE CORRECT.
OTHERWISE...DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND 1Z...SETTLING FROM
THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WEAK CAPE MAY POOL ACROSS THE
TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. THE 12Z 4KM WRF INDICATES THAT WEAK
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
BETWEEN 3Z TO 8Z. THE NAM AND GFS ARE GENERALLY ON BOARD WITH THE 4
KM WRF. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS AND NEARLY ZERO CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON...I ASSUME THAT INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE TO EXIST PAST
MIDNIGHT. I WILL INDICATE CHC TO SCHC ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WITH NO MENTION AFTER 5Z. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE THAT RAIN FALLS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE U30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND NE GA.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW BL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW TO MID 70S
ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH RISING THICKNESSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE MID
SOUTH. WAVETRAIN SLIDES QUICKLY EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
SHORTWAVE DAMPS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR ALL GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FINGER OF STABILITY PERSISTS JUST IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS INCREASE SBCAPE VALUES
ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA... WITH NAM
PUSHING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. GFS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THAT WITH
ONLY LIMITED SBCAPE VALUES PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRIED TO REFLECT A COMPROMISE WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH SPC DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...BRINGING GENERAL THUNDER INTO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR /GENERALLY LESS THAN 35KT 0-6KM/ COINCIDES WITH THESE
ENCROACHING SBCAPE VALUES SO WHILE AT THIS TIME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF LOWERING HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE FALLING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING LEAVING
WEAK NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE ESPECIALLY INTO THE
PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. SOME CONCERN STILL ON TIMING WITH THE GFS 6-12 HOURS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF /THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND FOR THE PAST FEW
RUNS/ BUT IN ANY CASE SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 18Z PACKAGE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND
1Z...SETTLING FROM THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. FEW
TO SCT CU MAY EXIST BETWEEN 050-060 KFT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS...REMAINING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311919
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSES OVER THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE PRECIPIATION CHANCES
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OF 230 PM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A FEW CU OVER GRAHAM COUNTY. LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE FORECAST AREA WAS CAPE FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW VALUES EXISTED ACROSS EASTERN TN SOUTH ACROSS AL AND
NW GA. RECENT RUNS OF CAMS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION THE DEVELOP
ALONG AN OLD FRONT ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST...MISSING THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...IT APPEARS THE CAMS ARE CORRECT.
OTHERWISE...DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND 1Z...SETTLING FROM
THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THE MTNS THIS EVENING...WEAK CAPE MAY POOL ACROSS THE
TN BORDER COUNTIES OF NC. THE 12Z 4KM WRF INDICATES THAT WEAK
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
BETWEEN 3Z TO 8Z. THE NAM AND GFS ARE GENERALLY ON BOARD WITH THE 4
KM WRF. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS AND NEARLY ZERO CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON...I ASSUME THAT INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE TO EXIST PAST
MIDNIGHT. I WILL INDICATE CHC TO SCHC ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...WITH NO MENTION AFTER 5Z. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE THAT RAIN FALLS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE U30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND NE GA.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LINGERING LOW BL DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW TO MID 70S
ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH RISING THICKNESSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE MID
SOUTH. WAVETRAIN SLIDES QUICKLY EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
SHORTWAVE DAMPS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR ALL GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FINGER OF STABILITY PERSISTS JUST IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS INCREASE SBCAPE VALUES
ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA... WITH NAM
PUSHING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG. GFS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THAT WITH
ONLY LIMITED SBCAPE VALUES PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRIED TO REFLECT A COMPROMISE WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH SPC DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...BRINGING GENERAL THUNDER INTO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR /GENERALLY LESS THAN 35KT 0-6KM/ COINCIDES WITH THESE
ENCROACHING SBCAPE VALUES SO WHILE AT THIS TIME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF LOWERING HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE FALLING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING LEAVING
WEAK NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE ESPECIALLY INTO THE
PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. SOME CONCERN STILL ON TIMING WITH THE GFS 6-12 HOURS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF /THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND FOR THE PAST FEW
RUNS/ BUT IN ANY CASE SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS LATE
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 18Z PACKAGE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND
1Z...SETTLING FROM THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. FEW
TO SCT CU MAY EXIST BETWEEN 050-060 KFT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS...REMAINING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311729
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
129 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE
PRECIPIATION CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OF 130 PM...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE
THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY CLOSE TO CURRENTLY FORECAST VALUES.
NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

AS OF NOON...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE COMPLETELY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SLIGHT FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES
BY ONE TO TWO DEGREES. CAM MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW CONVECTIVE
CELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. I WILL MAKE MINOR EDITS TO POP VALUES
AND PLACEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS OF 915 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE HEADLINE TO THE
FROST ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...I WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING
SKY FORECAST. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 630 AM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WEATHER
QUIET THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN JET STREAKS IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PROVIDES SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS MS/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR
NOT ANY OF THE PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE
TO REACH NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP LATER DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY A NRN STREAM WAVE MAY REACH THE
MTNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FUEL SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE. ASSUMING THE FCST
WORKS OUT WITH NO PRECIP THRU PEAK HEATING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN...WE SHOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN LOW AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MAINLY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/NRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.   SAID
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST TAKING ROOT JUST OFF THE
NC/SC COASTLINE LEADING TO COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CONSEQUENT WARM SECTOR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
THE EAST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH A
RATHER SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
I20 CORRIDOR...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM COULD SLIDE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SETTING UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME FRIDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AMONGST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  ABOVE MENTIONED UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FORCED PRECIPITATION
WARRANTS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIKELY
POPS ARE FEATURED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH THUNDER MENTIONED...WITH LOWER CHANCE LEVEL POPS
FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS FAVORABLE FORCING/INSTABILITY RESIDES.  POPS
WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ANY INSTABILITY DEGRADES...HOWEVER
CONTINUE IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AS ANY SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIMIT HEATING...DESPITE MODEST WAA AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 18Z PACKAGE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND
1Z...SETTLING FROM THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. FEW
TO SCT CU MAY EXIST BETWEEN 050-060 KFT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS...REMAINING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311729
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
129 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE
PRECIPIATION CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OF 130 PM...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE
THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY CLOSE TO CURRENTLY FORECAST VALUES.
NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

AS OF NOON...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE COMPLETELY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SLIGHT FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES
BY ONE TO TWO DEGREES. CAM MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW CONVECTIVE
CELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. I WILL MAKE MINOR EDITS TO POP VALUES
AND PLACEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS OF 915 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE HEADLINE TO THE
FROST ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...I WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING
SKY FORECAST. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 630 AM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WEATHER
QUIET THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN JET STREAKS IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PROVIDES SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS MS/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR
NOT ANY OF THE PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE
TO REACH NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP LATER DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY A NRN STREAM WAVE MAY REACH THE
MTNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FUEL SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE. ASSUMING THE FCST
WORKS OUT WITH NO PRECIP THRU PEAK HEATING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN...WE SHOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN LOW AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MAINLY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/NRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.   SAID
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST TAKING ROOT JUST OFF THE
NC/SC COASTLINE LEADING TO COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CONSEQUENT WARM SECTOR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
THE EAST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH A
RATHER SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
I20 CORRIDOR...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM COULD SLIDE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SETTING UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME FRIDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AMONGST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  ABOVE MENTIONED UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FORCED PRECIPITATION
WARRANTS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIKELY
POPS ARE FEATURED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH THUNDER MENTIONED...WITH LOWER CHANCE LEVEL POPS
FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS FAVORABLE FORCING/INSTABILITY RESIDES.  POPS
WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ANY INSTABILITY DEGRADES...HOWEVER
CONTINUE IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AS ANY SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIMIT HEATING...DESPITE MODEST WAA AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 18Z PACKAGE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND
1Z...SETTLING FROM THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. FEW
TO SCT CU MAY EXIST BETWEEN 050-060 KFT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS...REMAINING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311729
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
129 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE
PRECIPIATION CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OF 130 PM...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE
THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY CLOSE TO CURRENTLY FORECAST VALUES.
NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

AS OF NOON...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE COMPLETELY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SLIGHT FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES
BY ONE TO TWO DEGREES. CAM MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW CONVECTIVE
CELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. I WILL MAKE MINOR EDITS TO POP VALUES
AND PLACEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS OF 915 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE HEADLINE TO THE
FROST ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...I WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING
SKY FORECAST. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 630 AM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WEATHER
QUIET THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN JET STREAKS IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PROVIDES SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS MS/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR
NOT ANY OF THE PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE
TO REACH NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP LATER DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY A NRN STREAM WAVE MAY REACH THE
MTNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FUEL SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE. ASSUMING THE FCST
WORKS OUT WITH NO PRECIP THRU PEAK HEATING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN...WE SHOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN LOW AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MAINLY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/NRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.   SAID
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST TAKING ROOT JUST OFF THE
NC/SC COASTLINE LEADING TO COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CONSEQUENT WARM SECTOR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
THE EAST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH A
RATHER SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
I20 CORRIDOR...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM COULD SLIDE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SETTING UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME FRIDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AMONGST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  ABOVE MENTIONED UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FORCED PRECIPITATION
WARRANTS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIKELY
POPS ARE FEATURED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH THUNDER MENTIONED...WITH LOWER CHANCE LEVEL POPS
FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS FAVORABLE FORCING/INSTABILITY RESIDES.  POPS
WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ANY INSTABILITY DEGRADES...HOWEVER
CONTINUE IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AS ANY SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIMIT HEATING...DESPITE MODEST WAA AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 18Z PACKAGE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND
1Z...SETTLING FROM THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. FEW
TO SCT CU MAY EXIST BETWEEN 050-060 KFT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS...REMAINING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311729
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
129 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE
PRECIPIATION CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OF 130 PM...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE
THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR VERY CLOSE TO CURRENTLY FORECAST VALUES.
NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

AS OF NOON...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE COMPLETELY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SLIGHT FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES
BY ONE TO TWO DEGREES. CAM MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW CONVECTIVE
CELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. I WILL MAKE MINOR EDITS TO POP VALUES
AND PLACEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS OF 915 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE HEADLINE TO THE
FROST ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...I WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING
SKY FORECAST. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 630 AM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WEATHER
QUIET THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN JET STREAKS IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PROVIDES SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS MS/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR
NOT ANY OF THE PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE
TO REACH NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP LATER DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY A NRN STREAM WAVE MAY REACH THE
MTNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FUEL SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE. ASSUMING THE FCST
WORKS OUT WITH NO PRECIP THRU PEAK HEATING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN...WE SHOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN LOW AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MAINLY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/NRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.   SAID
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST TAKING ROOT JUST OFF THE
NC/SC COASTLINE LEADING TO COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CONSEQUENT WARM SECTOR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
THE EAST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH A
RATHER SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
I20 CORRIDOR...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM COULD SLIDE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SETTING UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME FRIDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AMONGST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  ABOVE MENTIONED UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FORCED PRECIPITATION
WARRANTS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIKELY
POPS ARE FEATURED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH THUNDER MENTIONED...WITH LOWER CHANCE LEVEL POPS
FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS FAVORABLE FORCING/INSTABILITY RESIDES.  POPS
WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ANY INSTABILITY DEGRADES...HOWEVER
CONTINUE IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AS ANY SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIMIT HEATING...DESPITE MODEST WAA AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 18Z PACKAGE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND
1Z...SETTLING FROM THE SW SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID ATLANTIC CLIPPER WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 0Z...PASSING SOUTH OF THE NC/SC LINE BY 6Z. FEW
TO SCT CU MAY EXIST BETWEEN 050-060 KFT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS...REMAINING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311615
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1215 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE
PRECIPIATION CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
COMPLETELY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOURLY
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SLIGHT FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY ONE TO TWO DEGREES. CAM MODELS INDICATE THAT
A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC
MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. I WILL MAKE MINOR
EDITS TO POP VALUES AND PLACEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS OF 915 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE HEADLINE TO THE
FROST ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...I WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING
SKY FORECAST. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 630 AM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WEATHER
QUIET THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN JET STREAKS IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PROVIDES SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS MS/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR
NOT ANY OF THE PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE
TO REACH NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP LATER DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY A NRN STREAM WAVE MAY REACH THE
MTNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FUEL SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE. ASSUMING THE FCST
WORKS OUT WITH NO PRECIP THRU PEAK HEATING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN...WE SHOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN LOW AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MAINLY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/NRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.   SAID
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST TAKING ROOT JUST OFF THE
NC/SC COASTLINE LEADING TO COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CONSEQUENT WARM SECTOR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
THE EAST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH A
RATHER SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
I20 CORRIDOR...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM COULD SLIDE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SETTING UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME FRIDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AMONGST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  ABOVE MENTIONED UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FORCED PRECIPITATION
WARRANTS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIKELY
POPS ARE FEATURED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH THUNDER MENTIONED...WITH LOWER CHANCE LEVEL POPS
FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS FAVORABLE FORCING/INSTABILITY RESIDES.  POPS
WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ANY INSTABILITY DEGRADES...HOWEVER
CONTINUE IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AS ANY SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIMIT HEATING...DESPITE MODEST WAA AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CALM OR L/V WIND WILL BECOME
S/SW BY 13Z OR SO AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A
SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY ACTIVATE AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES...BUT KAND WOULD BE
THE CLOSEST. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT AT ALL TERMINALS. KAVL COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH AN UNUSUAL W CROSSWIND AS A WESTERLY WIND AT 850
MB STRENGTHENS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD COME AROUND TO
NW AT KAVL BY MID EVENING. EXPECT A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 060 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MTNS LATE
TONIGHT BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN HUNG UP ON THE
W SLOPES. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO N.

OUTLOOK...VFR ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND
RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311615
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1215 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE
PRECIPIATION CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
COMPLETELY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOURLY
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SLIGHT FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY ONE TO TWO DEGREES. CAM MODELS INDICATE THAT
A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC
MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. I WILL MAKE MINOR
EDITS TO POP VALUES AND PLACEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS OF 915 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE HEADLINE TO THE
FROST ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...I WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING
SKY FORECAST. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 630 AM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WEATHER
QUIET THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN JET STREAKS IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PROVIDES SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS MS/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR
NOT ANY OF THE PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE
TO REACH NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP LATER DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY A NRN STREAM WAVE MAY REACH THE
MTNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FUEL SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE. ASSUMING THE FCST
WORKS OUT WITH NO PRECIP THRU PEAK HEATING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN...WE SHOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN LOW AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MAINLY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/NRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.   SAID
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST TAKING ROOT JUST OFF THE
NC/SC COASTLINE LEADING TO COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CONSEQUENT WARM SECTOR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
THE EAST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH A
RATHER SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
I20 CORRIDOR...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM COULD SLIDE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SETTING UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME FRIDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AMONGST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  ABOVE MENTIONED UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FORCED PRECIPITATION
WARRANTS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIKELY
POPS ARE FEATURED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH THUNDER MENTIONED...WITH LOWER CHANCE LEVEL POPS
FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS FAVORABLE FORCING/INSTABILITY RESIDES.  POPS
WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ANY INSTABILITY DEGRADES...HOWEVER
CONTINUE IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AS ANY SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIMIT HEATING...DESPITE MODEST WAA AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CALM OR L/V WIND WILL BECOME
S/SW BY 13Z OR SO AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A
SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY ACTIVATE AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES...BUT KAND WOULD BE
THE CLOSEST. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT AT ALL TERMINALS. KAVL COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH AN UNUSUAL W CROSSWIND AS A WESTERLY WIND AT 850
MB STRENGTHENS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD COME AROUND TO
NW AT KAVL BY MID EVENING. EXPECT A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 060 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MTNS LATE
TONIGHT BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN HUNG UP ON THE
W SLOPES. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO N.

OUTLOOK...VFR ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND
RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z        10-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311319
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
919 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE
PRECIPIATION CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OF 915 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE HEADLINE TO THE
FROST ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...I WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING
SKY FORECAST. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 630 AM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WEATHER
QUIET THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN JET STREAKS IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PROVIDES SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS MS/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR
NOT ANY OF THE PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE
TO REACH NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP LATER DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY A NRN STREAM WAVE MAY REACH THE
MTNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FUEL SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE. ASSUMING THE FCST
WORKS OUT WITH NO PRECIP THRU PEAK HEATING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN...WE SHOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN LOW AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MAINLY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/NRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.   SAID
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST TAKING ROOT JUST OFF THE
NC/SC COASTLINE LEADING TO COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CONSEQUENT WARM SECTOR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
THE EAST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH A
RATHER SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
I20 CORRIDOR...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM COULD SLIDE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SETTING UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME FRIDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AMONGST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  ABOVE MENTIONED UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FORCED PRECIPITATION
WARRANTS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIKELY
POPS ARE FEATURED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH THUNDER MENTIONED...WITH LOWER CHANCE LEVEL POPS
FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS FAVORABLE FORCING/INSTABILITY RESIDES.  POPS
WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ANY INSTABILITY DEGRADES...HOWEVER
CONTINUE IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AS ANY SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIMIT HEATING...DESPITE MODEST WAA AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CALM OR L/V WIND WILL BECOME
S/SW BY 13Z OR SO AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A
SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY ACTIVATE AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES...BUT KAND WOULD BE
THE CLOSEST. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT AT ALL TERMINALS. KAVL COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH AN UNUSUAL W CROSSWIND AS A WESTERLY WIND AT 850
MB STRENGTHENS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD COME AROUND TO
NW AT KAVL BY MID EVENING. EXPECT A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 060 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MTNS LATE
TONIGHT BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN HUNG UP ON THE
W SLOPES. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO N.

OUTLOOK...VFR ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND
RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   78%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311319
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
919 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE
PRECIPIATION CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OF 915 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE HEADLINE TO THE
FROST ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...I WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING
SKY FORECAST. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 630 AM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WEATHER
QUIET THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN JET STREAKS IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PROVIDES SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS MS/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR
NOT ANY OF THE PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE
TO REACH NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP LATER DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY A NRN STREAM WAVE MAY REACH THE
MTNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FUEL SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE. ASSUMING THE FCST
WORKS OUT WITH NO PRECIP THRU PEAK HEATING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN...WE SHOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN LOW AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MAINLY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/NRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.   SAID
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST TAKING ROOT JUST OFF THE
NC/SC COASTLINE LEADING TO COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CONSEQUENT WARM SECTOR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
THE EAST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH A
RATHER SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
I20 CORRIDOR...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM COULD SLIDE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SETTING UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME FRIDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AMONGST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  ABOVE MENTIONED UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FORCED PRECIPITATION
WARRANTS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIKELY
POPS ARE FEATURED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH THUNDER MENTIONED...WITH LOWER CHANCE LEVEL POPS
FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS FAVORABLE FORCING/INSTABILITY RESIDES.  POPS
WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ANY INSTABILITY DEGRADES...HOWEVER
CONTINUE IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AS ANY SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIMIT HEATING...DESPITE MODEST WAA AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CALM OR L/V WIND WILL BECOME
S/SW BY 13Z OR SO AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A
SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY ACTIVATE AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES...BUT KAND WOULD BE
THE CLOSEST. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT AT ALL TERMINALS. KAVL COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH AN UNUSUAL W CROSSWIND AS A WESTERLY WIND AT 850
MB STRENGTHENS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD COME AROUND TO
NW AT KAVL BY MID EVENING. EXPECT A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 060 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MTNS LATE
TONIGHT BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN HUNG UP ON THE
W SLOPES. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO N.

OUTLOOK...VFR ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND
RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   78%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311319
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
919 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE
PRECIPIATION CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OF 915 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE HEADLINE TO THE
FROST ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...I WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING
SKY FORECAST. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 630 AM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WEATHER
QUIET THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN JET STREAKS IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PROVIDES SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS MS/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR
NOT ANY OF THE PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE
TO REACH NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP LATER DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY A NRN STREAM WAVE MAY REACH THE
MTNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FUEL SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE. ASSUMING THE FCST
WORKS OUT WITH NO PRECIP THRU PEAK HEATING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN...WE SHOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN LOW AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MAINLY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/NRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.   SAID
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST TAKING ROOT JUST OFF THE
NC/SC COASTLINE LEADING TO COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CONSEQUENT WARM SECTOR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
THE EAST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH A
RATHER SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
I20 CORRIDOR...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM COULD SLIDE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SETTING UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME FRIDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AMONGST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  ABOVE MENTIONED UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FORCED PRECIPITATION
WARRANTS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIKELY
POPS ARE FEATURED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH THUNDER MENTIONED...WITH LOWER CHANCE LEVEL POPS
FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS FAVORABLE FORCING/INSTABILITY RESIDES.  POPS
WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ANY INSTABILITY DEGRADES...HOWEVER
CONTINUE IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AS ANY SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIMIT HEATING...DESPITE MODEST WAA AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CALM OR L/V WIND WILL BECOME
S/SW BY 13Z OR SO AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A
SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY ACTIVATE AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES...BUT KAND WOULD BE
THE CLOSEST. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT AT ALL TERMINALS. KAVL COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH AN UNUSUAL W CROSSWIND AS A WESTERLY WIND AT 850
MB STRENGTHENS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD COME AROUND TO
NW AT KAVL BY MID EVENING. EXPECT A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 060 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MTNS LATE
TONIGHT BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN HUNG UP ON THE
W SLOPES. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO N.

OUTLOOK...VFR ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND
RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   78%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311319
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
919 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE
PRECIPIATION CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OF 915 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE HEADLINE TO THE
FROST ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...I WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING
SKY FORECAST. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AS OF 630 AM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WEATHER
QUIET THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN JET STREAKS IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PROVIDES SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS MS/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR
NOT ANY OF THE PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE
TO REACH NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP LATER DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY A NRN STREAM WAVE MAY REACH THE
MTNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FUEL SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE. ASSUMING THE FCST
WORKS OUT WITH NO PRECIP THRU PEAK HEATING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN...WE SHOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN LOW AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MAINLY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/NRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.   SAID
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST TAKING ROOT JUST OFF THE
NC/SC COASTLINE LEADING TO COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CONSEQUENT WARM SECTOR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
THE EAST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH A
RATHER SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
I20 CORRIDOR...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM COULD SLIDE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SETTING UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME FRIDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AMONGST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  ABOVE MENTIONED UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FORCED PRECIPITATION
WARRANTS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIKELY
POPS ARE FEATURED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH THUNDER MENTIONED...WITH LOWER CHANCE LEVEL POPS
FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS FAVORABLE FORCING/INSTABILITY RESIDES.  POPS
WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ANY INSTABILITY DEGRADES...HOWEVER
CONTINUE IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AS ANY SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIMIT HEATING...DESPITE MODEST WAA AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CALM OR L/V WIND WILL BECOME
S/SW BY 13Z OR SO AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A
SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY ACTIVATE AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES...BUT KAND WOULD BE
THE CLOSEST. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT AT ALL TERMINALS. KAVL COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH AN UNUSUAL W CROSSWIND AS A WESTERLY WIND AT 850
MB STRENGTHENS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD COME AROUND TO
NW AT KAVL BY MID EVENING. EXPECT A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 060 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MTNS LATE
TONIGHT BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN HUNG UP ON THE
W SLOPES. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO N.

OUTLOOK...VFR ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND
RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   78%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311054
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE
PRECIPIATION CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WEATHER
QUIET THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN JET STREAKS IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PROVIDES SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS MS/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR
NOT ANY OF THE PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE
TO REACH NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP LATER DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY A NRN STREAM WAVE MAY REACH THE
MTNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FUEL SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE. ASSUMING THE FCST
WORKS OUT WITH NO PRECIP THRU PEAK HEATING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN...WE SHOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN LOW AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MAINLY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/NRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.   SAID
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST TAKING ROOT JUST OFF THE
NC/SC COASTLINE LEADING TO COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CONSEQUENT WARM SECTOR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
THE EAST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH A
RATHER SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
I20 CORRIDOR...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM COULD SLIDE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SETTING UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME FRIDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AMONGST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  ABOVE MENTIONED UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FORCED PRECIPITATION
WARRANTS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIKELY
POPS ARE FEATURED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH THUNDER MENTIONED...WITH LOWER CHANCE LEVEL POPS
FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS FAVORABLE FORCING/INSTABILITY RESIDES.  POPS
WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ANY INSTABILITY DEGRADES...HOWEVER
CONTINUE IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AS ANY SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIMIT HEATING...DESPITE MODEST WAA AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CALM OR L/V WIND WILL BECOME
S/SW BY 13Z OR SO AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A
SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY ACTIVATE AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES...BUT KAND WOULD BE
THE CLOSEST. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT AT ALL TERMINALS. KAVL COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH AN UNUSUAL W CROSSWIND AS A WESTERLY WIND AT 850
MB STRENGTHENS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD COME AROUND TO
NW AT KAVL BY MID EVENING. EXPECT A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 060 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MTNS LATE
TONIGHT BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN HUNG UP ON THE
W SLOPES. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO N.

OUTLOOK...VFR ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND
RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   60%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048-051>053-
     058-059-062-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-
     501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/JPT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 311054
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE
PRECIPIATION CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WEATHER
QUIET THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN JET STREAKS IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PROVIDES SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS MS/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR
NOT ANY OF THE PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE
TO REACH NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP LATER DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY A NRN STREAM WAVE MAY REACH THE
MTNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FUEL SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE. ASSUMING THE FCST
WORKS OUT WITH NO PRECIP THRU PEAK HEATING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN...WE SHOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN LOW AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MAINLY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/NRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.   SAID
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST TAKING ROOT JUST OFF THE
NC/SC COASTLINE LEADING TO COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CONSEQUENT WARM SECTOR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
THE EAST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH A
RATHER SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
I20 CORRIDOR...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM COULD SLIDE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SETTING UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME FRIDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AMONGST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  ABOVE MENTIONED UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FORCED PRECIPITATION
WARRANTS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIKELY
POPS ARE FEATURED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH THUNDER MENTIONED...WITH LOWER CHANCE LEVEL POPS
FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS FAVORABLE FORCING/INSTABILITY RESIDES.  POPS
WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ANY INSTABILITY DEGRADES...HOWEVER
CONTINUE IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AS ANY SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIMIT HEATING...DESPITE MODEST WAA AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CALM OR L/V WIND WILL BECOME
S/SW BY 13Z OR SO AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A
SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY ACTIVATE AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES...BUT KAND WOULD BE
THE CLOSEST. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT AT ALL TERMINALS. KAVL COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH AN UNUSUAL W CROSSWIND AS A WESTERLY WIND AT 850
MB STRENGTHENS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD COME AROUND TO
NW AT KAVL BY MID EVENING. EXPECT A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 060 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MTNS LATE
TONIGHT BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN HUNG UP ON THE
W SLOPES. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO N.

OUTLOOK...VFR ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND
RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   60%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048-051>053-
     058-059-062-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-
     501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/JPT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311054
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE
PRECIPIATION CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WEATHER
QUIET THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN JET STREAKS IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PROVIDES SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS MS/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR
NOT ANY OF THE PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE
TO REACH NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP LATER DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY A NRN STREAM WAVE MAY REACH THE
MTNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FUEL SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE. ASSUMING THE FCST
WORKS OUT WITH NO PRECIP THRU PEAK HEATING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN...WE SHOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN LOW AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MAINLY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/NRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.   SAID
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST TAKING ROOT JUST OFF THE
NC/SC COASTLINE LEADING TO COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CONSEQUENT WARM SECTOR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
THE EAST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH A
RATHER SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
I20 CORRIDOR...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM COULD SLIDE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SETTING UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME FRIDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AMONGST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  ABOVE MENTIONED UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FORCED PRECIPITATION
WARRANTS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIKELY
POPS ARE FEATURED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH THUNDER MENTIONED...WITH LOWER CHANCE LEVEL POPS
FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS FAVORABLE FORCING/INSTABILITY RESIDES.  POPS
WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ANY INSTABILITY DEGRADES...HOWEVER
CONTINUE IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AS ANY SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIMIT HEATING...DESPITE MODEST WAA AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CALM OR L/V WIND WILL BECOME
S/SW BY 13Z OR SO AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A
SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY ACTIVATE AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES...BUT KAND WOULD BE
THE CLOSEST. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT AT ALL TERMINALS. KAVL COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH AN UNUSUAL W CROSSWIND AS A WESTERLY WIND AT 850
MB STRENGTHENS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD COME AROUND TO
NW AT KAVL BY MID EVENING. EXPECT A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 060 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MTNS LATE
TONIGHT BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN HUNG UP ON THE
W SLOPES. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO N.

OUTLOOK...VFR ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND
RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   60%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048-051>053-
     058-059-062-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-
     501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/JPT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 311054
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE
PRECIPIATION CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WEATHER
QUIET THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN JET STREAKS IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PROVIDES SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS MS/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR
NOT ANY OF THE PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE
TO REACH NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP LATER DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY A NRN STREAM WAVE MAY REACH THE
MTNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FUEL SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE. ASSUMING THE FCST
WORKS OUT WITH NO PRECIP THRU PEAK HEATING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN...WE SHOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN LOW AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MAINLY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/NRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.   SAID
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST TAKING ROOT JUST OFF THE
NC/SC COASTLINE LEADING TO COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CONSEQUENT WARM SECTOR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
THE EAST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH A
RATHER SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
I20 CORRIDOR...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM COULD SLIDE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SETTING UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME FRIDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AMONGST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  ABOVE MENTIONED UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FORCED PRECIPITATION
WARRANTS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIKELY
POPS ARE FEATURED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH THUNDER MENTIONED...WITH LOWER CHANCE LEVEL POPS
FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS FAVORABLE FORCING/INSTABILITY RESIDES.  POPS
WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ANY INSTABILITY DEGRADES...HOWEVER
CONTINUE IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AS ANY SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIMIT HEATING...DESPITE MODEST WAA AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CALM OR L/V WIND WILL BECOME
S/SW BY 13Z OR SO AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A
SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY ACTIVATE AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES...BUT KAND WOULD BE
THE CLOSEST. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT AT ALL TERMINALS. KAVL COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH AN UNUSUAL W CROSSWIND AS A WESTERLY WIND AT 850
MB STRENGTHENS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD COME AROUND TO
NW AT KAVL BY MID EVENING. EXPECT A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 060 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MTNS LATE
TONIGHT BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN HUNG UP ON THE
W SLOPES. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO N.

OUTLOOK...VFR ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND
RESTRICTIONS. VFR WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   60%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048-051>053-
     058-059-062-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-
     501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/JPT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 310737
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE
PRECIPIATION CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM...ALL IS GOING ACCORDING TO PLAN. NO CHANGES WILL BE
MADE TO THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THIS TIME. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN JET STREAKS IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PROVIDES SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS MS/AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER OR
NOT ANY OF THE PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE
TO REACH NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP LATER DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW DRIVEN BY A NRN STREAM WAVE MAY REACH THE
MTNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FUEL SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE. ASSUMING THE FCST
WORKS OUT WITH NO PRECIP THRU PEAK HEATING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN...WE SHOULD EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN LOW AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MAINLY OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/NRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.   SAID
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST TAKING ROOT JUST OFF THE
NC/SC COASTLINE LEADING TO COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
CONSEQUENT WARM SECTOR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA REGIME WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
THE EAST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH A
RATHER SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
I20 CORRIDOR...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM COULD SLIDE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SETTING UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY AROUND THE 12Z TIMEFRAME FRIDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AMONGST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  ABOVE MENTIONED UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE FORCED PRECIPITATION
WARRANTS INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LIKELY
POPS ARE FEATURED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH THUNDER MENTIONED...WITH LOWER CHANCE LEVEL POPS
FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS FAVORABLE FORCING/INSTABILITY RESIDES.  POPS
WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS ANY INSTABILITY DEGRADES...HOWEVER
CONTINUE IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AS ANY SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LIMIT HEATING...DESPITE MODEST WAA AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SETS UP AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FCST
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FCST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS DEPICTED ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF.  THAT SAID...MODELS FAVOR
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LIMITING LAPSE
RATES...THUS DAMPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.  FCST FEATURES CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE INCREASING LIKELY POPS ARE FAVORED
OVER THE MTNS WITH THUNDER MENTIONED REGIONWIDE.  THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL AXIS.  BY THAT TIME EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE AT A PREMIUM
THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FEASIBLE AT
THAT POINT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN SHARPLY ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A DRYING FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AMONGST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER IS FCST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND A LIGHT WIND THROUGH DAYBREAK. S/SW WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
AFTER SUNRISE...REACHING THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT MOST TERMINALS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME. A SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY
ACTIVATE AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH CLOSE TO ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 060 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048-051>053-
     058-059-062-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-
     068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/JPT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 310539
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
139 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...ALL IS GOING ACCORDING TO PLAN. NO CHANGES WILL BE
MADE TO THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 1030 PM...DECENT MIXING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY IN WESTERN NC. MEANWHILE...DECOUPLING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST VALLEYS OF NC...WITH THE FRANKLIN AWOS ALREADY SITTING AT
45. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLOUD-
FREE. I SUSPECT THAT SHELTERED/TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS SOUTHWEST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN WIDESPREAD-FREEZING TEMPS TO WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING...SO THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
STAND. MEANWHILE...THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEYS SHOULD
SEE A LIGHT UP-VALLEY WIND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK...LIKELY
PRECLUDING ANY FREEZE CONCERNS. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...TEMPS WERE BUMPED
UP A SMIDGE IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THOSE AREAS SHOULD
TOO EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE...BUT TEMPS THERE ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S
AT THIS HOUR.

AS OF 735 PM...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CIRRUS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA ATTM...CLEAR SKIES COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM IS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...ESP OVER THE MTNS...AS A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE...ESP WITHIN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. WHILE IT
APPEARS A LIGHT UP-VALLEY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...LIKELY PREVENTING TEMPS FROM CRATERING
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A CASE IN WHICH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOL AIR DRAINAGE WILL DO ITS BUSINESS
ACROSS THE LITTLE TENN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING DRAINAGES. MIN TEMPS
WERE THEREFORE LOWERED TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. IT DOESN/T APPEAR
THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE
WARNING...BUT THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
LITTLE TENN...AS WELL AS THE PIGEON RIVER DRAINAGES.

AS OF 245 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A FEW
DIURNAL CU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG THE TN
BORDER. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC...NEAR
TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...RESULTING IN CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A BL
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE INVERSION
LOWERS TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME EXPOSED TO THE MTN
RIDGES...LOWERING LATE NIGHT HIGH ELEVATION DEWPOINTS TO AROUND
ZERO. MTN VALLEY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 30 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AREAS FROM THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE CLT METRO AREA RANGE AROUND 40.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CALM WINDS...AND MID
30S WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD FROST WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY TONIGHT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE U60S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS AND LOW
70S EAST. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH GUST WINDS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NCFS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE NC ZONES FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
THE EAST COAST LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NC
MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH
CAPES QUICKLY DWINDLING TUE EVENING AND THE EC ESSENTIALLY HAS A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HENCE...WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH POPS...AND WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUTNAINS WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH PRODUCING CLEARING BY WED MORNING AND TEMPS A NOTCH ABOVE
CLIMO ON WED. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL ACT WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND A LIGHT WIND THROUGH DAYBREAK. S/SW WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
AFTER SUNRISE...REACHING THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT MOST TERMINALS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME. A SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY
ACTIVATE AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH CLOSE TO ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 060 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048-051>053-
     058-059-062-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-
     068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED/PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 310539
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
139 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...ALL IS GOING ACCORDING TO PLAN. NO CHANGES WILL BE
MADE TO THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 1030 PM...DECENT MIXING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY IN WESTERN NC. MEANWHILE...DECOUPLING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST VALLEYS OF NC...WITH THE FRANKLIN AWOS ALREADY SITTING AT
45. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLOUD-
FREE. I SUSPECT THAT SHELTERED/TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS SOUTHWEST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN WIDESPREAD-FREEZING TEMPS TO WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING...SO THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
STAND. MEANWHILE...THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEYS SHOULD
SEE A LIGHT UP-VALLEY WIND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK...LIKELY
PRECLUDING ANY FREEZE CONCERNS. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...TEMPS WERE BUMPED
UP A SMIDGE IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THOSE AREAS SHOULD
TOO EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE...BUT TEMPS THERE ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S
AT THIS HOUR.

AS OF 735 PM...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CIRRUS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA ATTM...CLEAR SKIES COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM IS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...ESP OVER THE MTNS...AS A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE...ESP WITHIN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. WHILE IT
APPEARS A LIGHT UP-VALLEY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...LIKELY PREVENTING TEMPS FROM CRATERING
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A CASE IN WHICH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOL AIR DRAINAGE WILL DO ITS BUSINESS
ACROSS THE LITTLE TENN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING DRAINAGES. MIN TEMPS
WERE THEREFORE LOWERED TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. IT DOESN/T APPEAR
THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE
WARNING...BUT THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
LITTLE TENN...AS WELL AS THE PIGEON RIVER DRAINAGES.

AS OF 245 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A FEW
DIURNAL CU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG THE TN
BORDER. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC...NEAR
TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...RESULTING IN CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A BL
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE INVERSION
LOWERS TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME EXPOSED TO THE MTN
RIDGES...LOWERING LATE NIGHT HIGH ELEVATION DEWPOINTS TO AROUND
ZERO. MTN VALLEY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 30 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AREAS FROM THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE CLT METRO AREA RANGE AROUND 40.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CALM WINDS...AND MID
30S WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD FROST WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY TONIGHT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE U60S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS AND LOW
70S EAST. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH GUST WINDS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NCFS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE NC ZONES FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
THE EAST COAST LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NC
MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH
CAPES QUICKLY DWINDLING TUE EVENING AND THE EC ESSENTIALLY HAS A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HENCE...WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH POPS...AND WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUTNAINS WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH PRODUCING CLEARING BY WED MORNING AND TEMPS A NOTCH ABOVE
CLIMO ON WED. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL ACT WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND A LIGHT WIND THROUGH DAYBREAK. S/SW WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
AFTER SUNRISE...REACHING THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT MOST TERMINALS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME. A SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY
ACTIVATE AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH CLOSE TO ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 060 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048-051>053-
     058-059-062-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-
     068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED/PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 310539
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
139 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...ALL IS GOING ACCORDING TO PLAN. NO CHANGES WILL BE
MADE TO THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 1030 PM...DECENT MIXING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY IN WESTERN NC. MEANWHILE...DECOUPLING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST VALLEYS OF NC...WITH THE FRANKLIN AWOS ALREADY SITTING AT
45. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLOUD-
FREE. I SUSPECT THAT SHELTERED/TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS SOUTHWEST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN WIDESPREAD-FREEZING TEMPS TO WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING...SO THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
STAND. MEANWHILE...THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEYS SHOULD
SEE A LIGHT UP-VALLEY WIND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK...LIKELY
PRECLUDING ANY FREEZE CONCERNS. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...TEMPS WERE BUMPED
UP A SMIDGE IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THOSE AREAS SHOULD
TOO EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE...BUT TEMPS THERE ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S
AT THIS HOUR.

AS OF 735 PM...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CIRRUS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA ATTM...CLEAR SKIES COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM IS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...ESP OVER THE MTNS...AS A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE...ESP WITHIN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. WHILE IT
APPEARS A LIGHT UP-VALLEY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...LIKELY PREVENTING TEMPS FROM CRATERING
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A CASE IN WHICH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOL AIR DRAINAGE WILL DO ITS BUSINESS
ACROSS THE LITTLE TENN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING DRAINAGES. MIN TEMPS
WERE THEREFORE LOWERED TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. IT DOESN/T APPEAR
THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE
WARNING...BUT THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
LITTLE TENN...AS WELL AS THE PIGEON RIVER DRAINAGES.

AS OF 245 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A FEW
DIURNAL CU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG THE TN
BORDER. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC...NEAR
TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...RESULTING IN CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A BL
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE INVERSION
LOWERS TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME EXPOSED TO THE MTN
RIDGES...LOWERING LATE NIGHT HIGH ELEVATION DEWPOINTS TO AROUND
ZERO. MTN VALLEY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 30 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AREAS FROM THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE CLT METRO AREA RANGE AROUND 40.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CALM WINDS...AND MID
30S WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD FROST WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY TONIGHT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE U60S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS AND LOW
70S EAST. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH GUST WINDS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NCFS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE NC ZONES FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
THE EAST COAST LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NC
MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH
CAPES QUICKLY DWINDLING TUE EVENING AND THE EC ESSENTIALLY HAS A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HENCE...WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH POPS...AND WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUTNAINS WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH PRODUCING CLEARING BY WED MORNING AND TEMPS A NOTCH ABOVE
CLIMO ON WED. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL ACT WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND A LIGHT WIND THROUGH DAYBREAK. S/SW WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
AFTER SUNRISE...REACHING THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT MOST TERMINALS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME. A SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY
ACTIVATE AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH CLOSE TO ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 060 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048-051>053-
     058-059-062-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-
     068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED/PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 310539
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
139 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...ALL IS GOING ACCORDING TO PLAN. NO CHANGES WILL BE
MADE TO THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 1030 PM...DECENT MIXING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY IN WESTERN NC. MEANWHILE...DECOUPLING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST VALLEYS OF NC...WITH THE FRANKLIN AWOS ALREADY SITTING AT
45. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLOUD-
FREE. I SUSPECT THAT SHELTERED/TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS SOUTHWEST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN WIDESPREAD-FREEZING TEMPS TO WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING...SO THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
STAND. MEANWHILE...THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEYS SHOULD
SEE A LIGHT UP-VALLEY WIND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK...LIKELY
PRECLUDING ANY FREEZE CONCERNS. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...TEMPS WERE BUMPED
UP A SMIDGE IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THOSE AREAS SHOULD
TOO EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE...BUT TEMPS THERE ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S
AT THIS HOUR.

AS OF 735 PM...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CIRRUS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA ATTM...CLEAR SKIES COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM IS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...ESP OVER THE MTNS...AS A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE...ESP WITHIN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. WHILE IT
APPEARS A LIGHT UP-VALLEY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...LIKELY PREVENTING TEMPS FROM CRATERING
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A CASE IN WHICH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOL AIR DRAINAGE WILL DO ITS BUSINESS
ACROSS THE LITTLE TENN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING DRAINAGES. MIN TEMPS
WERE THEREFORE LOWERED TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. IT DOESN/T APPEAR
THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE
WARNING...BUT THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
LITTLE TENN...AS WELL AS THE PIGEON RIVER DRAINAGES.

AS OF 245 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A FEW
DIURNAL CU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG THE TN
BORDER. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC...NEAR
TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...RESULTING IN CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A BL
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE INVERSION
LOWERS TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME EXPOSED TO THE MTN
RIDGES...LOWERING LATE NIGHT HIGH ELEVATION DEWPOINTS TO AROUND
ZERO. MTN VALLEY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 30 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AREAS FROM THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE CLT METRO AREA RANGE AROUND 40.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CALM WINDS...AND MID
30S WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD FROST WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY TONIGHT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE U60S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS AND LOW
70S EAST. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH GUST WINDS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NCFS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE NC ZONES FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
THE EAST COAST LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NC
MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH
CAPES QUICKLY DWINDLING TUE EVENING AND THE EC ESSENTIALLY HAS A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HENCE...WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH POPS...AND WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUTNAINS WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH PRODUCING CLEARING BY WED MORNING AND TEMPS A NOTCH ABOVE
CLIMO ON WED. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL ACT WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND A LIGHT WIND THROUGH DAYBREAK. S/SW WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
AFTER SUNRISE...REACHING THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT MOST TERMINALS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME. A SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MAY
ACTIVATE AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH CLOSE TO ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 060 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048-051>053-
     058-059-062-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-
     068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED/PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 310240
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...DECENT MIXING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY IN WESTERN NC. MEANWHILE...DECOUPLING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST VALLEYS OF NC...WITH THE FRANKLIN AWOS ALREADY SITTING AT
45. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLOUD-
FREE. I SUSPECT THAT SHELTERED/TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS SOUTHWEST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN WIDESPREAD-FREEZING TEMPS TO WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING...SO THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
STAND. MEANWHILE...THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEYS SHOULD
SEE A LIGHT UP-VALLEY WIND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK...LIKELY
PRECLUDING ANY FREEZE CONCERNS. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...TEMPS WERE BUMPED
UP A SMIDGE IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THOSE AREAS SHOULD
TOO EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE...BUT TEMPS THERE ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S
AT THIS HOUR.

AS OF 735 PM...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CIRRUS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA ATTM...CLEAR SKIES COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM IS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...ESP OVER THE MTNS...AS A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE...ESP WITHIN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. WHILE IT
APPEARS A LIGHT UP-VALLEY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...LIKELY PREVENTING TEMPS FROM CRATERING
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A CASE IN WHICH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOL AIR DRAINAGE WILL DO ITS BUSINESS
ACROSS THE LITTLE TENN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING DRAINAGES. MIN TEMPS
WERE THEREFORE LOWERED TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. IT DOESN/T APPEAR
THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE
WARNING...BUT THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
LITTLE TENN...AS WELL AS THE PIGEON RIVER DRAINAGES.

AS OF 245 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A FEW
DIURNAL CU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG THE TN
BORDER. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC...NEAR
TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...RESULTING IN CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A BL
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE INVERSION
LOWERS TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME EXPOSED TO THE MTN
RIDGES...LOWERING LATE NIGHT HIGH ELEVATION DEWPOINTS TO AROUND
ZERO. MTN VALLEY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 30 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AREAS FROM THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE CLT METRO AREA RANGE AROUND 40.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CALM WINDS...AND MID
30S WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD FROST WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY TONIGHT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE U60S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS AND LOW
70S EAST. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH GUST WINDS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NCFS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE NC ZONES FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
THE EAST COAST LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NC
MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH
CAPES QUICKLY DWINDLING TUE EVENING AND THE EC ESSENTIALLY HAS A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HENCE...WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH POPS...AND WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH PRODUCING CLEARING BY WED MORNING AND TEMPS A NOTCH ABOVE
CLIMO ON WED. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL ACT WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL BE LARGELY FREE OF CLOUDS OF ANY TYPE...WHILE DRY AIR
WILL PRECLUDE ANY VISBY ISSUES. THUS...MAINLY A WIND FORECAST FOR
THIS SET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR TURN TOWARD THE NW THIS
EVENING AND WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 KTS...LIKELY GOING LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
BY DAYBREAK. S/SW WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE...REACHING
THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-
     059-062-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 310240
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...DECENT MIXING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY IN WESTERN NC. MEANWHILE...DECOUPLING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST VALLEYS OF NC...WITH THE FRANKLIN AWOS ALREADY SITTING AT
45. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLOUD-
FREE. I SUSPECT THAT SHELTERED/TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS SOUTHWEST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN WIDESPREAD-FREEZING TEMPS TO WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING...SO THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
STAND. MEANWHILE...THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEYS SHOULD
SEE A LIGHT UP-VALLEY WIND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK...LIKELY
PRECLUDING ANY FREEZE CONCERNS. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...TEMPS WERE BUMPED
UP A SMIDGE IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THOSE AREAS SHOULD
TOO EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE...BUT TEMPS THERE ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S
AT THIS HOUR.

AS OF 735 PM...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CIRRUS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA ATTM...CLEAR SKIES COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM IS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...ESP OVER THE MTNS...AS A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE...ESP WITHIN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. WHILE IT
APPEARS A LIGHT UP-VALLEY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...LIKELY PREVENTING TEMPS FROM CRATERING
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A CASE IN WHICH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOL AIR DRAINAGE WILL DO ITS BUSINESS
ACROSS THE LITTLE TENN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING DRAINAGES. MIN TEMPS
WERE THEREFORE LOWERED TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. IT DOESN/T APPEAR
THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE
WARNING...BUT THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
LITTLE TENN...AS WELL AS THE PIGEON RIVER DRAINAGES.

AS OF 245 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A FEW
DIURNAL CU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG THE TN
BORDER. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC...NEAR
TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...RESULTING IN CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A BL
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE INVERSION
LOWERS TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME EXPOSED TO THE MTN
RIDGES...LOWERING LATE NIGHT HIGH ELEVATION DEWPOINTS TO AROUND
ZERO. MTN VALLEY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 30 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AREAS FROM THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE CLT METRO AREA RANGE AROUND 40.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CALM WINDS...AND MID
30S WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD FROST WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY TONIGHT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE U60S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS AND LOW
70S EAST. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH GUST WINDS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NCFS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE NC ZONES FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
THE EAST COAST LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NC
MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH
CAPES QUICKLY DWINDLING TUE EVENING AND THE EC ESSENTIALLY HAS A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HENCE...WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH POPS...AND WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH PRODUCING CLEARING BY WED MORNING AND TEMPS A NOTCH ABOVE
CLIMO ON WED. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL ACT WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL BE LARGELY FREE OF CLOUDS OF ANY TYPE...WHILE DRY AIR
WILL PRECLUDE ANY VISBY ISSUES. THUS...MAINLY A WIND FORECAST FOR
THIS SET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR TURN TOWARD THE NW THIS
EVENING AND WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 KTS...LIKELY GOING LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
BY DAYBREAK. S/SW WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE...REACHING
THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-
     059-062-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 310240
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...DECENT MIXING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY IN WESTERN NC. MEANWHILE...DECOUPLING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST VALLEYS OF NC...WITH THE FRANKLIN AWOS ALREADY SITTING AT
45. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLOUD-
FREE. I SUSPECT THAT SHELTERED/TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS SOUTHWEST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN WIDESPREAD-FREEZING TEMPS TO WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING...SO THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
STAND. MEANWHILE...THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEYS SHOULD
SEE A LIGHT UP-VALLEY WIND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK...LIKELY
PRECLUDING ANY FREEZE CONCERNS. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...TEMPS WERE BUMPED
UP A SMIDGE IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THOSE AREAS SHOULD
TOO EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE...BUT TEMPS THERE ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S
AT THIS HOUR.

AS OF 735 PM...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CIRRUS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA ATTM...CLEAR SKIES COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM IS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...ESP OVER THE MTNS...AS A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE...ESP WITHIN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. WHILE IT
APPEARS A LIGHT UP-VALLEY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...LIKELY PREVENTING TEMPS FROM CRATERING
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A CASE IN WHICH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOL AIR DRAINAGE WILL DO ITS BUSINESS
ACROSS THE LITTLE TENN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING DRAINAGES. MIN TEMPS
WERE THEREFORE LOWERED TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. IT DOESN/T APPEAR
THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE
WARNING...BUT THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
LITTLE TENN...AS WELL AS THE PIGEON RIVER DRAINAGES.

AS OF 245 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A FEW
DIURNAL CU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG THE TN
BORDER. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC...NEAR
TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...RESULTING IN CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A BL
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE INVERSION
LOWERS TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME EXPOSED TO THE MTN
RIDGES...LOWERING LATE NIGHT HIGH ELEVATION DEWPOINTS TO AROUND
ZERO. MTN VALLEY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 30 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AREAS FROM THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE CLT METRO AREA RANGE AROUND 40.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CALM WINDS...AND MID
30S WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD FROST WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY TONIGHT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE U60S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS AND LOW
70S EAST. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH GUST WINDS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NCFS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE NC ZONES FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
THE EAST COAST LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NC
MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH
CAPES QUICKLY DWINDLING TUE EVENING AND THE EC ESSENTIALLY HAS A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HENCE...WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH POPS...AND WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH PRODUCING CLEARING BY WED MORNING AND TEMPS A NOTCH ABOVE
CLIMO ON WED. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL ACT WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL BE LARGELY FREE OF CLOUDS OF ANY TYPE...WHILE DRY AIR
WILL PRECLUDE ANY VISBY ISSUES. THUS...MAINLY A WIND FORECAST FOR
THIS SET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR TURN TOWARD THE NW THIS
EVENING AND WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 KTS...LIKELY GOING LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
BY DAYBREAK. S/SW WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE...REACHING
THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-
     059-062-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 302347
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CIRRUS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA ATTM...CLEAR SKIES COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM IS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...ESP OVER THE MTNS...AS A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE...ESP WITHIN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. WHILE IT
APPEARS A LIGHT UP-VALLEY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...LIKELY PREVENTING TEMPS FROM CRATERING
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A CASE IN WHICH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOL AIR DRAINAGE WILL DO ITS BUSINESS
ACROSS THE LITTLE TENN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING DRAINAGES. MIN TEMPS
WERE THEREFORE LOWERED TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. IT DOESN/T APPEAR
THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE
WARNING...BUT THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
LITTLE TENN...AS WELL AS THE PIGEON RIVER DRAINAGES.

AS OF 245 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A FEW
DIURNAL CU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG THE TN
BORDER. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC...NEAR
TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...RESULTING IN CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A BL
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE INVERSION
LOWERS TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME EXPOSED TO THE MTN
RIDGES...LOWERING LATE NIGHT HIGH ELEVATION DEWPOINTS TO AROUND
ZERO. MTN VALLEY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 30 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AREAS FROM THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE CLT METRO AREA RANGE AROUND 40.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CALM WINDS...AND MID
30S WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD FROST WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY TONIGHT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE U60S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS AND LOW
70S EAST. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH GUST WINDS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NCFS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE NC ZONES FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
THE EAST COAST LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NC
MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH
CAPES QUICKLY DWINDLING TUE EVENING AND THE EC ESSENTIALLY HAS A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HENCE...WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH POPS...AND WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH PRODUCING CLEARING BY WED MORNING AND TEMPS A NOTCH ABOVE
CLIMO ON WED. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL ACT WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL BE LARGELY FREE OF CLOUDS OF ANY TYPE...WHILE DRY AIR
WILL PRECLUDE ANY VISBY ISSUES. THUS...MAINLY A WIND FORECAST FOR
THIS SET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR TURN TOWARD THE NW THIS
EVENING AND WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 KTS...LIKELY GOING LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
BY DAYBREAK. S/SW WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE...REACHING
THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 302347
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CIRRUS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA ATTM...CLEAR SKIES COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM IS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...ESP OVER THE MTNS...AS A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE...ESP WITHIN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. WHILE IT
APPEARS A LIGHT UP-VALLEY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...LIKELY PREVENTING TEMPS FROM CRATERING
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A CASE IN WHICH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOL AIR DRAINAGE WILL DO ITS BUSINESS
ACROSS THE LITTLE TENN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING DRAINAGES. MIN TEMPS
WERE THEREFORE LOWERED TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. IT DOESN/T APPEAR
THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE
WARNING...BUT THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
LITTLE TENN...AS WELL AS THE PIGEON RIVER DRAINAGES.

AS OF 245 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A FEW
DIURNAL CU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG THE TN
BORDER. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC...NEAR
TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...RESULTING IN CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A BL
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE INVERSION
LOWERS TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME EXPOSED TO THE MTN
RIDGES...LOWERING LATE NIGHT HIGH ELEVATION DEWPOINTS TO AROUND
ZERO. MTN VALLEY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 30 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AREAS FROM THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE CLT METRO AREA RANGE AROUND 40.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CALM WINDS...AND MID
30S WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD FROST WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY TONIGHT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE U60S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS AND LOW
70S EAST. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH GUST WINDS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NCFS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE NC ZONES FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
THE EAST COAST LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NC
MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH
CAPES QUICKLY DWINDLING TUE EVENING AND THE EC ESSENTIALLY HAS A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HENCE...WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH POPS...AND WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH PRODUCING CLEARING BY WED MORNING AND TEMPS A NOTCH ABOVE
CLIMO ON WED. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL ACT WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL BE LARGELY FREE OF CLOUDS OF ANY TYPE...WHILE DRY AIR
WILL PRECLUDE ANY VISBY ISSUES. THUS...MAINLY A WIND FORECAST FOR
THIS SET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR TURN TOWARD THE NW THIS
EVENING AND WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 KTS...LIKELY GOING LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
BY DAYBREAK. S/SW WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE...REACHING
THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 302347
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CIRRUS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA ATTM...CLEAR SKIES COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM IS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...ESP OVER THE MTNS...AS A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE...ESP WITHIN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. WHILE IT
APPEARS A LIGHT UP-VALLEY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...LIKELY PREVENTING TEMPS FROM CRATERING
TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A CASE IN WHICH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOL AIR DRAINAGE WILL DO ITS BUSINESS
ACROSS THE LITTLE TENN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING DRAINAGES. MIN TEMPS
WERE THEREFORE LOWERED TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. IT DOESN/T APPEAR
THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE
WARNING...BUT THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
LITTLE TENN...AS WELL AS THE PIGEON RIVER DRAINAGES.

AS OF 245 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A FEW
DIURNAL CU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG THE TN
BORDER. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC...NEAR
TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...RESULTING IN CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A BL
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE INVERSION
LOWERS TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME EXPOSED TO THE MTN
RIDGES...LOWERING LATE NIGHT HIGH ELEVATION DEWPOINTS TO AROUND
ZERO. MTN VALLEY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 30 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AREAS FROM THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE CLT METRO AREA RANGE AROUND 40.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CALM WINDS...AND MID
30S WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD FROST WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY TONIGHT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE U60S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS AND LOW
70S EAST. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH GUST WINDS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NCFS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE NC ZONES FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
THE EAST COAST LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NC
MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH
CAPES QUICKLY DWINDLING TUE EVENING AND THE EC ESSENTIALLY HAS A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HENCE...WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH POPS...AND WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH PRODUCING CLEARING BY WED MORNING AND TEMPS A NOTCH ABOVE
CLIMO ON WED. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL ACT WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL BE LARGELY FREE OF CLOUDS OF ANY TYPE...WHILE DRY AIR
WILL PRECLUDE ANY VISBY ISSUES. THUS...MAINLY A WIND FORECAST FOR
THIS SET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR TURN TOWARD THE NW THIS
EVENING AND WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 KTS...LIKELY GOING LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
BY DAYBREAK. S/SW WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE...REACHING
THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 301854
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A FEW
DIURNAL CU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG THE TN
BORDER. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC...NEAR
TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...RESULTING IN CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A BL
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE INVERSION
LOWERS TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME EXPOSED TO THE MTN
RIDGES...LOWERING LATE NIGHT HIGH ELEVATION DEWPOINTS TO AROUND
ZERO. MTN VALLEY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 30 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AREAS FROM THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE CLT METRO AREA RANGE AROUND 40.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CALM WINDS...AND MID
30S WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD FROST WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY TONIGHT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE U60S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS AND LOW
70S EAST. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH GUST WINDS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NCFS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE NC ZONES FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
THE EAST COAST LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NC
MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH
CAPES QUICKLY DWINDLING TUE EVENING AND THE EC ESSENTIALLY HAS A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HENCE...WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH POPS...AND WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUTNAINS WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH PRODUCING CLEARING BY WED MORNING AND TEMPS A NOTCH ABOVE
CLIMO ON WED. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL ACT WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 1730Z...THE KGSP RADAR APPEARED TO SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG
COUNTIES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...KAVL WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNSET.
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO SEE WINDS VEER
AND MARGINAL WIND GUSTS. TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE NEARLY OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM CALM TO 4 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE...THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING SW WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH GUST INTO
THE TEENS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     NCZ048-053-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 301854
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A FEW
DIURNAL CU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG THE TN
BORDER. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC...NEAR
TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...RESULTING IN CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A BL
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE INVERSION
LOWERS TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME EXPOSED TO THE MTN
RIDGES...LOWERING LATE NIGHT HIGH ELEVATION DEWPOINTS TO AROUND
ZERO. MTN VALLEY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 30 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AREAS FROM THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE CLT METRO AREA RANGE AROUND 40.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CALM WINDS...AND MID
30S WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD FROST WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY TONIGHT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE U60S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS AND LOW
70S EAST. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH GUST WINDS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NCFS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE NC ZONES FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
THE EAST COAST LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NC
MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH
CAPES QUICKLY DWINDLING TUE EVENING AND THE EC ESSENTIALLY HAS A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HENCE...WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH POPS...AND WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUTNAINS WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH PRODUCING CLEARING BY WED MORNING AND TEMPS A NOTCH ABOVE
CLIMO ON WED. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL ACT WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 1730Z...THE KGSP RADAR APPEARED TO SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG
COUNTIES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...KAVL WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNSET.
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO SEE WINDS VEER
AND MARGINAL WIND GUSTS. TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE NEARLY OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM CALM TO 4 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE...THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING SW WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH GUST INTO
THE TEENS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     NCZ048-053-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 301854
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...A COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A FEW
DIURNAL CU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG THE TN
BORDER. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SFC...NEAR
TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...RESULTING IN CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A BL
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE INVERSION
LOWERS TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME EXPOSED TO THE MTN
RIDGES...LOWERING LATE NIGHT HIGH ELEVATION DEWPOINTS TO AROUND
ZERO. MTN VALLEY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 30 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AREAS FROM THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE CLT METRO AREA RANGE AROUND 40.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CALM WINDS...AND MID
30S WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD FROST WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY TONIGHT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE U60S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS AND LOW
70S EAST. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH GUST WINDS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NCFS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE NC ZONES FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
THE EAST COAST LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE NC
MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED WITH
CAPES QUICKLY DWINDLING TUE EVENING AND THE EC ESSENTIALLY HAS A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HENCE...WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH POPS...AND WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY EAST OF THE MOUTNAINS WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS TUE EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH PRODUCING CLEARING BY WED MORNING AND TEMPS A NOTCH ABOVE
CLIMO ON WED. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL ACT WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 1730Z...THE KGSP RADAR APPEARED TO SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG
COUNTIES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...KAVL WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNSET.
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO SEE WINDS VEER
AND MARGINAL WIND GUSTS. TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE NEARLY OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM CALM TO 4 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE...THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING SW WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH GUST INTO
THE TEENS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     NCZ048-053-065.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 301751
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM...LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THAT CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION HAS BECOME SKC TO FEW ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ANOTHER 3-4 DEGREES THEN BEGIN TO
COOL HEADED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST SKY TIMING AND INDICATE LATE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS.

AS OF 930 AM...THE BAND OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST...WITH ONLY UNION COUNTY UNDER LIGHT RA.
THE CWA SHOULD BECOME DRY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. I WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST DECREASE POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE CWA. IN ADDITION...I WILL
INCREASE SKY COVER AND SLOW THE MORNING DIURNAL WARMING RATE. THIS
AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE PIEDMONT...RESULTING
IN LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...SLOW WARMING THIS MORNING WILL PLACE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OUT OF PACE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE UPDATE WILL ALSO
FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...WITH AROUND 60
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 60S EAST.

AS OF 630 AM...LARGE AREA OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...
WAS MOVING VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN NC/UPSTATE SC/NE GEORGIA...DRIVEN
EWD BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE RAISED PRECIP PROB TO
CATEGORICAL MOST PLACES S OF I-40 BASED ON RADAR TREND. SOME PLACES
COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR SO OF PRECIP WHERE THE MODERATE RAIN IN THE
TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION LINGERS LONGEST. TEMPS WERE TWEAKED BASED
ON OBS. THE MODELS TAKE THE BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AS THE
SHORT WAVE ROTATES QUICKLY AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. THIS
SHOULD DRIVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE NOT AS GREAT ALONG/N OF I-40 WHERE DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP DOWN QUICKLY BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY...ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAY...IN SPITE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVING THRU...BECAUSE OF
THE W/NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NW.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. THERE ARE SOME MINOR CONCERNS
FOR FROST/FREEZE OVER THE MTNS...BUT THE TEMPS BELOW 32F ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THE FROST POTENTIAL DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THAT GREAT BASED ON DEWPTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST CONTINUED NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BENEATH WILL AID COLD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE.  MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  WARM FRONT LEADING THE
CHARGE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE I20 CORRIDOR LATE
IN THE DAY WITH ACTIVATION LIKELY AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD.  AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN NC MTNS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER DECREASING WITH HEATING LOSS...AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT BACK DOORS INTO THE
REGION.  THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  BRIEF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT COMBINED WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP THE WX DRY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST
SOUTHERLY UPGLIDE ATOP POSSIBLE INSITU CAD THURSDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA AND WESTERN NC MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...WITH POPS REMOVED BY MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  POPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING MID/LATE EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT WEAK
INSITU CAD REGIME ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE COASTAL SFC RIDGE.  GFS
ISENTROPIC CHARTS INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THUS CHANCE LEVEL POPS WERE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER EAST ON THE
FRINGE OF UPGLIDE MAXIMA.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 1730Z...THE KGSP RADAR APPEARED TO SHOW
THE WIND SHIFT ENTERING NORTHERN GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG
COUNTIES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...KAVL WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH
SUNSET. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO SEE
WINDS VEER AND MARGINAL WIND GUSTS. TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF DRY
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE NEARLY OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM CALM TO 4 KTS BY LATE
TONIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING SW WINDS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH GUST INTO THE TEENS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 301751
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM...LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THAT CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION HAS BECOME SKC TO FEW ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ANOTHER 3-4 DEGREES THEN BEGIN TO
COOL HEADED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST SKY TIMING AND INDICATE LATE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS.

AS OF 930 AM...THE BAND OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST...WITH ONLY UNION COUNTY UNDER LIGHT RA.
THE CWA SHOULD BECOME DRY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. I WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST DECREASE POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE CWA. IN ADDITION...I WILL
INCREASE SKY COVER AND SLOW THE MORNING DIURNAL WARMING RATE. THIS
AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE PIEDMONT...RESULTING
IN LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...SLOW WARMING THIS MORNING WILL PLACE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OUT OF PACE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE UPDATE WILL ALSO
FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...WITH AROUND 60
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 60S EAST.

AS OF 630 AM...LARGE AREA OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...
WAS MOVING VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN NC/UPSTATE SC/NE GEORGIA...DRIVEN
EWD BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE RAISED PRECIP PROB TO
CATEGORICAL MOST PLACES S OF I-40 BASED ON RADAR TREND. SOME PLACES
COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR SO OF PRECIP WHERE THE MODERATE RAIN IN THE
TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION LINGERS LONGEST. TEMPS WERE TWEAKED BASED
ON OBS. THE MODELS TAKE THE BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AS THE
SHORT WAVE ROTATES QUICKLY AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. THIS
SHOULD DRIVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE NOT AS GREAT ALONG/N OF I-40 WHERE DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP DOWN QUICKLY BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY...ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAY...IN SPITE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVING THRU...BECAUSE OF
THE W/NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NW.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. THERE ARE SOME MINOR CONCERNS
FOR FROST/FREEZE OVER THE MTNS...BUT THE TEMPS BELOW 32F ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THE FROST POTENTIAL DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THAT GREAT BASED ON DEWPTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST CONTINUED NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BENEATH WILL AID COLD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE.  MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  WARM FRONT LEADING THE
CHARGE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE I20 CORRIDOR LATE
IN THE DAY WITH ACTIVATION LIKELY AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD.  AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN NC MTNS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER DECREASING WITH HEATING LOSS...AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT BACK DOORS INTO THE
REGION.  THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  BRIEF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT COMBINED WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP THE WX DRY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST
SOUTHERLY UPGLIDE ATOP POSSIBLE INSITU CAD THURSDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA AND WESTERN NC MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...WITH POPS REMOVED BY MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  POPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING MID/LATE EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT WEAK
INSITU CAD REGIME ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE COASTAL SFC RIDGE.  GFS
ISENTROPIC CHARTS INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THUS CHANCE LEVEL POPS WERE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER EAST ON THE
FRINGE OF UPGLIDE MAXIMA.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 1730Z...THE KGSP RADAR APPEARED TO SHOW
THE WIND SHIFT ENTERING NORTHERN GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG
COUNTIES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...KAVL WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH
SUNSET. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO SEE
WINDS VEER AND MARGINAL WIND GUSTS. TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF DRY
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE NEARLY OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM CALM TO 4 KTS BY LATE
TONIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING SW WINDS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH GUST INTO THE TEENS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 301751
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM...LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THAT CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION HAS BECOME SKC TO FEW ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ANOTHER 3-4 DEGREES THEN BEGIN TO
COOL HEADED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST SKY TIMING AND INDICATE LATE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS.

AS OF 930 AM...THE BAND OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST...WITH ONLY UNION COUNTY UNDER LIGHT RA.
THE CWA SHOULD BECOME DRY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. I WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST DECREASE POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE CWA. IN ADDITION...I WILL
INCREASE SKY COVER AND SLOW THE MORNING DIURNAL WARMING RATE. THIS
AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE PIEDMONT...RESULTING
IN LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...SLOW WARMING THIS MORNING WILL PLACE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OUT OF PACE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE UPDATE WILL ALSO
FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...WITH AROUND 60
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 60S EAST.

AS OF 630 AM...LARGE AREA OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...
WAS MOVING VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN NC/UPSTATE SC/NE GEORGIA...DRIVEN
EWD BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE RAISED PRECIP PROB TO
CATEGORICAL MOST PLACES S OF I-40 BASED ON RADAR TREND. SOME PLACES
COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR SO OF PRECIP WHERE THE MODERATE RAIN IN THE
TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION LINGERS LONGEST. TEMPS WERE TWEAKED BASED
ON OBS. THE MODELS TAKE THE BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AS THE
SHORT WAVE ROTATES QUICKLY AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. THIS
SHOULD DRIVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE NOT AS GREAT ALONG/N OF I-40 WHERE DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP DOWN QUICKLY BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY...ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAY...IN SPITE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVING THRU...BECAUSE OF
THE W/NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NW.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. THERE ARE SOME MINOR CONCERNS
FOR FROST/FREEZE OVER THE MTNS...BUT THE TEMPS BELOW 32F ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THE FROST POTENTIAL DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THAT GREAT BASED ON DEWPTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST CONTINUED NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BENEATH WILL AID COLD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE.  MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  WARM FRONT LEADING THE
CHARGE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE I20 CORRIDOR LATE
IN THE DAY WITH ACTIVATION LIKELY AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD.  AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN NC MTNS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER DECREASING WITH HEATING LOSS...AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT BACK DOORS INTO THE
REGION.  THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  BRIEF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT COMBINED WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP THE WX DRY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST
SOUTHERLY UPGLIDE ATOP POSSIBLE INSITU CAD THURSDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA AND WESTERN NC MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...WITH POPS REMOVED BY MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  POPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING MID/LATE EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT WEAK
INSITU CAD REGIME ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE COASTAL SFC RIDGE.  GFS
ISENTROPIC CHARTS INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THUS CHANCE LEVEL POPS WERE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER EAST ON THE
FRINGE OF UPGLIDE MAXIMA.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 1730Z...THE KGSP RADAR APPEARED TO SHOW
THE WIND SHIFT ENTERING NORTHERN GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG
COUNTIES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...KAVL WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH
SUNSET. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO SEE
WINDS VEER AND MARGINAL WIND GUSTS. TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF DRY
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE NEARLY OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM CALM TO 4 KTS BY LATE
TONIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING SW WINDS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH GUST INTO THE TEENS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 301751
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM...LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THAT CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION HAS BECOME SKC TO FEW ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ANOTHER 3-4 DEGREES THEN BEGIN TO
COOL HEADED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST SKY TIMING AND INDICATE LATE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS.

AS OF 930 AM...THE BAND OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST...WITH ONLY UNION COUNTY UNDER LIGHT RA.
THE CWA SHOULD BECOME DRY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. I WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST DECREASE POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE CWA. IN ADDITION...I WILL
INCREASE SKY COVER AND SLOW THE MORNING DIURNAL WARMING RATE. THIS
AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE PIEDMONT...RESULTING
IN LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...SLOW WARMING THIS MORNING WILL PLACE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OUT OF PACE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE UPDATE WILL ALSO
FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...WITH AROUND 60
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 60S EAST.

AS OF 630 AM...LARGE AREA OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...
WAS MOVING VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN NC/UPSTATE SC/NE GEORGIA...DRIVEN
EWD BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE RAISED PRECIP PROB TO
CATEGORICAL MOST PLACES S OF I-40 BASED ON RADAR TREND. SOME PLACES
COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR SO OF PRECIP WHERE THE MODERATE RAIN IN THE
TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION LINGERS LONGEST. TEMPS WERE TWEAKED BASED
ON OBS. THE MODELS TAKE THE BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AS THE
SHORT WAVE ROTATES QUICKLY AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. THIS
SHOULD DRIVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE NOT AS GREAT ALONG/N OF I-40 WHERE DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP DOWN QUICKLY BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY...ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAY...IN SPITE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVING THRU...BECAUSE OF
THE W/NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NW.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. THERE ARE SOME MINOR CONCERNS
FOR FROST/FREEZE OVER THE MTNS...BUT THE TEMPS BELOW 32F ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THE FROST POTENTIAL DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THAT GREAT BASED ON DEWPTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST CONTINUED NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BENEATH WILL AID COLD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE.  MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  WARM FRONT LEADING THE
CHARGE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE I20 CORRIDOR LATE
IN THE DAY WITH ACTIVATION LIKELY AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD.  AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN NC MTNS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER DECREASING WITH HEATING LOSS...AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT BACK DOORS INTO THE
REGION.  THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  BRIEF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT COMBINED WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP THE WX DRY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST
SOUTHERLY UPGLIDE ATOP POSSIBLE INSITU CAD THURSDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA AND WESTERN NC MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...WITH POPS REMOVED BY MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  POPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING MID/LATE EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT WEAK
INSITU CAD REGIME ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE COASTAL SFC RIDGE.  GFS
ISENTROPIC CHARTS INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THUS CHANCE LEVEL POPS WERE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER EAST ON THE
FRINGE OF UPGLIDE MAXIMA.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OFF
THE EAST COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SW USA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY...BUT UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN DEAMPLIFIES
AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE MODELS
GO OUT OF PHASE OFF EACH COAST...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN FLOW
OVER THE SE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRECEDED BY ROBUST GULF INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE GULF INFLOW SPREADS MOISTURE UP THE MS...TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SPREADS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT...THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 1730Z...THE KGSP RADAR APPEARED TO SHOW
THE WIND SHIFT ENTERING NORTHERN GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG
COUNTIES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...KAVL WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH
SUNSET. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO SEE
WINDS VEER AND MARGINAL WIND GUSTS. TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF DRY
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE NEARLY OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM CALM TO 4 KTS BY LATE
TONIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING SW WINDS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH GUST INTO THE TEENS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 301344
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
944 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.  ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING FOR
WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...THE BAND OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST...WITH ONLY UNION COUNTY UNDER LIGHT RA.
THE CWA SHOULD BECOME DRY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. I WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST DECREASE POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE CWA. IN ADDITION...I WILL
INCREASE SKY COVER AND SLOW THE MORNING DIURNAL WARMING RATE. THIS
AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE PIEDMONT...RESULTING
IN LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...SLOW WARMING THIS MORNING WILL PLACE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OUT OF PACE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE UPDATE WILL ALSO
FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...WITH AROUND 60
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 60S EAST.

AS OF 630 AM...LARGE AREA OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...
WAS MOVING VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN NC/UPSTATE SC/NE GEORGIA...DRIVEN
EWD BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE RAISED PRECIP PROB TO
CATEGORICAL MOST PLACES S OF I-40 BASED ON RADAR TREND. SOME PLACES
COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR SO OF PRECIP WHERE THE MODERATE RAIN IN THE
TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION LINGERS LONGEST. TEMPS WERE TWEAKED BASED
ON OBS. THE MODELS TAKE THE BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AS THE
SHORT WAVE ROTATES QUICKLY AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. THIS
SHOULD DRIVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE NOT AS GREAT ALONG/N OF I-40 WHERE DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP DOWN QUICKLY BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY...ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAY...IN SPITE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVING THRU...BECAUSE OF
THE W/NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NW.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. THERE ARE SOME MINOR CONCERNS
FOR FROST/FREEZE OVER THE MTNS...BUT THE TEMPS BELOW 32F ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THE FROST POTENTIAL DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THAT GREAT BASED ON DEWPTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST CONTINUED NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BENEATH WILL AID COLD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE.  MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  WARM FRONT LEADING THE
CHARGE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE I20 CORRIDOR LATE
IN THE DAY WITH ACTIVATION LIKELY AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD.  AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN NC MTNS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER DECREASING WITH HEATING LOSS...AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT BACK DOORS INTO THE
REGION.  THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  BRIEF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT COMBINED WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP THE WX DRY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST
SOUTHERLY UPGLIDE ATOP POSSIBLE INSITU CAD THURSDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA AND WESTERN NC MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...WITH POPS REMOVED BY MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  POPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING MID/LATE EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT WEAK
INSITU CAD REGIME ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE COASTAL SFC RIDGE.  GFS
ISENTROPIC CHARTS INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THUS CHANCE LEVEL POPS WERE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER EAST ON THE
FRINGE OF UPGLIDE MAXIMA.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AMIDST ONGOING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST GA MTNS.  WEAK INSITU CAD REGIME
RESULTANT FROM ANCHORED COASTAL HIGH OFF THE NC COAST WILL BREAK
DOWN THROUGH LATE MORNING LEADING TO EROSION OF ANY UPGLIDE
ENHANCEMENT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE LEADING TO
IMPROVING WAA REGIME INTO FRIDAY.  MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A COLD FRONT
STRETCHES TO THE SOUTH FROM SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG THE FRONT ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN
IMPROVING WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OUT AHEAD.  THE ECMWF/GFS TREND
TOWARDS SOME DISCONTINUITY LATE IN THE WEEK REGARDING TIMING OF THE
FROPA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  THE ECMWF FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION
WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE MTNS OF WESTERN NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED CONVECTION AHEAD IN THE
MILDLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER
THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR A NOCTURNAL
FROPA THUS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
FOR CONVECTION.  BEYOND THAT THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION TO THE
EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AT THE LATEST ALLOWING FOR COOLER/DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER YET STILL ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS FCST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AIRFIELD THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. EXPECT THE HEAVIER PRECIP AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE S OF THE AIRFIELD...SO WILL NOT CARRY A TSRA.
THE PRECIP SHOULD HELP BRING THE CEILING DOWN INTO THE LOWER END OF
THE MVFR RANGE...BUT THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY MVFR
CEILING WILL NOT FORM UNTIL AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. WIND SHOULD STAY SW UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN THE FRONTAL ZONE REACHES
THE SRN PIEDMONT. EXPECT THE WIND SHIFT AROUND 17Z...FIRST TO
WESTERLY...AROUND THE SAME TIME THE LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT...AND THEN
TO NW BY MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR GOOD. THE
REST OF THE FCST WILL BE VFR WITH ONLY CIRRUS AND A NW TO N WIND
OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...THE BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY
14Z OR SO. AN MVFR CEILING IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAIN
AREA BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. THE LOWER
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES THROUGH DURING
MIDDAY. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES BASED ON
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING...THRU 14Z. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AT KAVL THROUGH SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 301344
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
944 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.  ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING FOR
WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...THE BAND OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST...WITH ONLY UNION COUNTY UNDER LIGHT RA.
THE CWA SHOULD BECOME DRY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. I WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST DECREASE POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE CWA. IN ADDITION...I WILL
INCREASE SKY COVER AND SLOW THE MORNING DIURNAL WARMING RATE. THIS
AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE PIEDMONT...RESULTING
IN LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...SLOW WARMING THIS MORNING WILL PLACE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OUT OF PACE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE UPDATE WILL ALSO
FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...WITH AROUND 60
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 60S EAST.

AS OF 630 AM...LARGE AREA OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...
WAS MOVING VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN NC/UPSTATE SC/NE GEORGIA...DRIVEN
EWD BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE RAISED PRECIP PROB TO
CATEGORICAL MOST PLACES S OF I-40 BASED ON RADAR TREND. SOME PLACES
COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR SO OF PRECIP WHERE THE MODERATE RAIN IN THE
TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION LINGERS LONGEST. TEMPS WERE TWEAKED BASED
ON OBS. THE MODELS TAKE THE BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AS THE
SHORT WAVE ROTATES QUICKLY AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. THIS
SHOULD DRIVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE NOT AS GREAT ALONG/N OF I-40 WHERE DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP DOWN QUICKLY BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY...ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAY...IN SPITE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVING THRU...BECAUSE OF
THE W/NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NW.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. THERE ARE SOME MINOR CONCERNS
FOR FROST/FREEZE OVER THE MTNS...BUT THE TEMPS BELOW 32F ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THE FROST POTENTIAL DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THAT GREAT BASED ON DEWPTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST CONTINUED NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BENEATH WILL AID COLD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE.  MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  WARM FRONT LEADING THE
CHARGE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE I20 CORRIDOR LATE
IN THE DAY WITH ACTIVATION LIKELY AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD.  AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN NC MTNS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER DECREASING WITH HEATING LOSS...AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT BACK DOORS INTO THE
REGION.  THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  BRIEF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT COMBINED WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP THE WX DRY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST
SOUTHERLY UPGLIDE ATOP POSSIBLE INSITU CAD THURSDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA AND WESTERN NC MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...WITH POPS REMOVED BY MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  POPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING MID/LATE EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT WEAK
INSITU CAD REGIME ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE COASTAL SFC RIDGE.  GFS
ISENTROPIC CHARTS INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THUS CHANCE LEVEL POPS WERE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER EAST ON THE
FRINGE OF UPGLIDE MAXIMA.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AMIDST ONGOING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST GA MTNS.  WEAK INSITU CAD REGIME
RESULTANT FROM ANCHORED COASTAL HIGH OFF THE NC COAST WILL BREAK
DOWN THROUGH LATE MORNING LEADING TO EROSION OF ANY UPGLIDE
ENHANCEMENT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE LEADING TO
IMPROVING WAA REGIME INTO FRIDAY.  MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A COLD FRONT
STRETCHES TO THE SOUTH FROM SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG THE FRONT ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN
IMPROVING WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OUT AHEAD.  THE ECMWF/GFS TREND
TOWARDS SOME DISCONTINUITY LATE IN THE WEEK REGARDING TIMING OF THE
FROPA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  THE ECMWF FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION
WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE MTNS OF WESTERN NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED CONVECTION AHEAD IN THE
MILDLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER
THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR A NOCTURNAL
FROPA THUS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
FOR CONVECTION.  BEYOND THAT THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION TO THE
EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AT THE LATEST ALLOWING FOR COOLER/DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER YET STILL ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS FCST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AIRFIELD THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. EXPECT THE HEAVIER PRECIP AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE S OF THE AIRFIELD...SO WILL NOT CARRY A TSRA.
THE PRECIP SHOULD HELP BRING THE CEILING DOWN INTO THE LOWER END OF
THE MVFR RANGE...BUT THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY MVFR
CEILING WILL NOT FORM UNTIL AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. WIND SHOULD STAY SW UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN THE FRONTAL ZONE REACHES
THE SRN PIEDMONT. EXPECT THE WIND SHIFT AROUND 17Z...FIRST TO
WESTERLY...AROUND THE SAME TIME THE LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT...AND THEN
TO NW BY MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR GOOD. THE
REST OF THE FCST WILL BE VFR WITH ONLY CIRRUS AND A NW TO N WIND
OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...THE BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY
14Z OR SO. AN MVFR CEILING IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAIN
AREA BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. THE LOWER
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES THROUGH DURING
MIDDAY. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES BASED ON
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING...THRU 14Z. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AT KAVL THROUGH SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   69%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 301100
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
700 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.  ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING FOR
WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...LARGE AREA OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...
WAS MOVING VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN NC/UPSTATE SC/NE GEORGIA...DRIVEN
EWD BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE RAISED PRECIP PROB TO
CATEGORICAL MOST PLACES S OF I-40 BASED ON RADAR TREND. SOME PLACES
COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR SO OF PRECIP WHERE THE MODERATE RAIN IN THE
TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION LINGERS LONGEST. TEMPS WERE TWEAKED BASED
ON OBS. THE MODELS TAKE THE BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AS THE
SHORT WAVE ROTATES QUICKLY AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. THIS
SHOULD DRIVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE NOT AS GREAT ALONG/N OF I-40 WHERE DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP DOWN QUICKLY BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY...ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAY...IN SPITE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVING THRU...BECAUSE OF
THE W/NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NW.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. THERE ARE SOME MINOR CONCERNS
FOR FROST/FREEZE OVER THE MTNS...BUT THE TEMPS BELOW 32F ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THE FROST POTENTIAL DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THAT GREAT BASED ON DEWPTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST CONTINUED NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BENEATH WILL AID COLD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE.  MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  WARM FRONT LEADING THE
CHARGE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE I20 CORRIDOR LATE
IN THE DAY WITH ACTIVATION LIKELY AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD.  AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN NC MTNS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER DECREASING WITH HEATING LOSS...AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT BACK DOORS INTO THE
REGION.  THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  BRIEF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT COMBINED WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP THE WX DRY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST
SOUTHERLY UPGLIDE ATOP POSSIBLE INSITU CAD THURSDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA AND WESTERN NC MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...WITH POPS REMOVED BY MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  POPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING MID/LATE EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT WEAK
INSITU CAD REGIME ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE COASTAL SFC RIDGE.  GFS
ISENTROPIC CHARTS INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THUS CHANCE LEVEL POPS WERE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER EAST ON THE
FRINGE OF UPGLIDE MAXIMA.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AMIDST ONGOING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST GA MTNS.  WEAK INSITU CAD REGIME
RESULTANT FROM ANCHORED COASTAL HIGH OFF THE NC COAST WILL BREAK
DOWN THROUGH LATE MORNING LEADING TO EROSION OF ANY UPGLIDE
ENHANCEMENT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE LEADING TO
IMPROVING WAA REGIME INTO FRIDAY.  MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A COLD FRONT
STRETCHES TO THE SOUTH FROM SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG THE FRONT ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN
IMPROVING WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OUT AHEAD.  THE ECMWF/GFS TREND
TOWARDS SOME DISCONTINUITY LATE IN THE WEEK REGARDING TIMING OF THE
FROPA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  THE ECMWF FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION
WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE MTNS OF WESTERN NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED CONVECTION AHEAD IN THE
MILDLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER
THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR A NOCTURNAL
FROPA THUS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
FOR CONVECTION.  BEYOND THAT THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION TO THE
EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AT THE LATEST ALLOWING FOR COOLER/DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER YET STILL ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS FCST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AIRFIELD THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. EXPECT THE HEAVIER PRECIP AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE S OF THE AIRFIELD...SO WILL NOT CARRY A TSRA.
THE PRECIP SHOULD HELP BRING THE CEILING DOWN INTO THE LOWER END OF
THE MVFR RANGE...BUT THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY MVFR
CEILING WILL NOT FORM UNTIL AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. WIND SHOULD STAY SW UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN THE FRONTAL ZONE REACHES
THE SRN PIEDMONT. EXPECT THE WIND SHIFT AROUND 17Z...FIRST TO
WESTERLY...AROUND THE SAME TIME THE LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT...AND THEN
TO NW BY MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR GOOD. THE
REST OF THE FCST WILL BE VFR WITH ONLY CIRRUS AND A NW TO N WIND
OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...THE BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY
14Z OR SO. AN MVFR CEILING IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAIN
AREA BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. THE LOWER
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES THROUGH DURING
MIDDAY. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES BASED ON
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING...THRU 14Z. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AT KAVL THROUGH SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   57%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 301100
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
700 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.  ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING FOR
WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...LARGE AREA OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...
WAS MOVING VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN NC/UPSTATE SC/NE GEORGIA...DRIVEN
EWD BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE RAISED PRECIP PROB TO
CATEGORICAL MOST PLACES S OF I-40 BASED ON RADAR TREND. SOME PLACES
COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR SO OF PRECIP WHERE THE MODERATE RAIN IN THE
TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION LINGERS LONGEST. TEMPS WERE TWEAKED BASED
ON OBS. THE MODELS TAKE THE BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AS THE
SHORT WAVE ROTATES QUICKLY AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. THIS
SHOULD DRIVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE NOT AS GREAT ALONG/N OF I-40 WHERE DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP DOWN QUICKLY BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY...ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAY...IN SPITE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVING THRU...BECAUSE OF
THE W/NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NW.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. THERE ARE SOME MINOR CONCERNS
FOR FROST/FREEZE OVER THE MTNS...BUT THE TEMPS BELOW 32F ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THE FROST POTENTIAL DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THAT GREAT BASED ON DEWPTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST CONTINUED NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BENEATH WILL AID COLD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE.  MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  WARM FRONT LEADING THE
CHARGE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE I20 CORRIDOR LATE
IN THE DAY WITH ACTIVATION LIKELY AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD.  AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN NC MTNS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER DECREASING WITH HEATING LOSS...AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT BACK DOORS INTO THE
REGION.  THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  BRIEF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT COMBINED WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP THE WX DRY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST
SOUTHERLY UPGLIDE ATOP POSSIBLE INSITU CAD THURSDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA AND WESTERN NC MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...WITH POPS REMOVED BY MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  POPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING MID/LATE EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT WEAK
INSITU CAD REGIME ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE COASTAL SFC RIDGE.  GFS
ISENTROPIC CHARTS INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THUS CHANCE LEVEL POPS WERE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER EAST ON THE
FRINGE OF UPGLIDE MAXIMA.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AMIDST ONGOING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST GA MTNS.  WEAK INSITU CAD REGIME
RESULTANT FROM ANCHORED COASTAL HIGH OFF THE NC COAST WILL BREAK
DOWN THROUGH LATE MORNING LEADING TO EROSION OF ANY UPGLIDE
ENHANCEMENT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE LEADING TO
IMPROVING WAA REGIME INTO FRIDAY.  MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A COLD FRONT
STRETCHES TO THE SOUTH FROM SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG THE FRONT ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN
IMPROVING WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OUT AHEAD.  THE ECMWF/GFS TREND
TOWARDS SOME DISCONTINUITY LATE IN THE WEEK REGARDING TIMING OF THE
FROPA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  THE ECMWF FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION
WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE MTNS OF WESTERN NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED CONVECTION AHEAD IN THE
MILDLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER
THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR A NOCTURNAL
FROPA THUS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
FOR CONVECTION.  BEYOND THAT THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION TO THE
EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AT THE LATEST ALLOWING FOR COOLER/DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER YET STILL ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS FCST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AIRFIELD THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. EXPECT THE HEAVIER PRECIP AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE S OF THE AIRFIELD...SO WILL NOT CARRY A TSRA.
THE PRECIP SHOULD HELP BRING THE CEILING DOWN INTO THE LOWER END OF
THE MVFR RANGE...BUT THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY MVFR
CEILING WILL NOT FORM UNTIL AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. WIND SHOULD STAY SW UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN THE FRONTAL ZONE REACHES
THE SRN PIEDMONT. EXPECT THE WIND SHIFT AROUND 17Z...FIRST TO
WESTERLY...AROUND THE SAME TIME THE LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT...AND THEN
TO NW BY MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR GOOD. THE
REST OF THE FCST WILL BE VFR WITH ONLY CIRRUS AND A NW TO N WIND
OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...THE BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY
14Z OR SO. AN MVFR CEILING IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAIN
AREA BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. THE LOWER
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES THROUGH DURING
MIDDAY. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES BASED ON
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING...THRU 14Z. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AT KAVL THROUGH SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   57%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 300736
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.  ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING FOR
WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM...WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE TO THE
WEST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS INTERCEPTING THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS TN/NRN MS. A FEW SHOWERY
ELEMENTS WERE NOTED OVER ERN TN...BUT THIS WAS PROBABLY NOT REACHING
THE GROUND. WILL PUT OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO...WHICH HAS THE ADDED BENEFIT OF ALLOWING WARM ADVECTION TO
BRING THE TEMPS UP ABOVE FREEZING AT THE PEAKS OF THE NC MTNS. ALL
INDICATIONS REMAIN THAT PRECIP WILL IN FACT BLOSSOM TO THE WEST THRU
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND REACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY/AROUND
DAYBREAK. A CONTINUED UPWARD TREND TO PRECIP COVERAGE OVER SRN
MIDDLE TN/NRN AL IS A GOOD INDICATION THAT THE MODELS ARE ON THE
RIGHT TRACK.

THE MODELS TAKE THE BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AS THE SHORT WAVE
ROTATES QUICKLY AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. THIS SHOULD
DRIVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. WILL GO
WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP PROBABILITY ACROSS THE SRN MOUNTAINS/NE
GEORGIA/WRN UPSTATE AS THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING STRETCHES INTO
THAT REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. COVERAGE SHOULD BE NOT
AS GREAT ALONG/N OF I-40 WHERE DOWNSLOPE E OF THE MTNS WILL BE
UNFAVORABLE. WHT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS IF ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN SURVIVE INTO THE MORE UNFAVORABLE AIR MASS ACRS N GEORGIA.
PRECIP CHANCES RAMP DOWN QUICKLY BY MIDDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND
NICELY...ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY...IN SPITE OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY MOVING THRU...BECAUSE OF THE W/NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST CONTINUED NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BENEATH WILL AID COLD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE.  MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  WARM FRONT LEADING THE
CHARGE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE I20 CORRIDOR LATE
IN THE DAY WITH ACTIVATION LIKELY AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD.  AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN NC MTNS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER DECREASING WITH HEATING LOSS...AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT BACK DOORS INTO THE
REGION.  THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  BRIEF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT COMBINED WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP THE WX DRY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST
SOUTHERLY UPGLIDE ATOP POSSIBLE INSITU CAD THURSDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA AND WESTERN NC MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...WITH POPS REMOVED BY MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  POPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING MID/LATE EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT WEAK
INSITU CAD REGIME ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE COASTAL SFC RIDGE.  GFS
ISENTROPIC CHARTS INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THUS CHANCE LEVEL POPS WERE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER EAST ON THE
FRINGE OF UPGLIDE MAXIMA.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AMIDST ONGOING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST GA MTNS.  WEAK INSITU CAD REGIME
RESULTANT FROM ANCHORED COASTAL HIGH OFF THE NC COAST WILL BREAK
DOWN THROUGH LATE MORNING LEADING TO EROSION OF ANY UPGLIDE
ENHANCEMENT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE LEADING TO
IMPROVING WAA REGIME INTO FRIDAY.  MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A COLD FRONT
STRETCHES TO THE SOUTH FROM SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG THE FRONT ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN
IMPROVING WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OUT AHEAD.  THE ECMWF/GFS TREND
TOWARDS SOME DISCONTINUITY LATE IN THE WEEK REGARDING TIMING OF THE
FROPA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  THE ECMWF FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION
WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE MTNS OF WESTERN NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED CONVECTION AHEAD IN THE
MILDLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER
THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR A NOCTURNAL
FROPA THUS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
FOR CONVECTION.  BEYOND THAT THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION TO THE
EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AT THE LATEST ALLOWING FOR COOLER/DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER YET STILL ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS FCST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A BASE OF 050-060 MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS A BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE PRECIP IS FCST TO FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING AT
LEAST A TEMPORARY MVFR CEILING/VIS RESTRICTION TO ALL TAF SITES
VARIOUSLY IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME FROM W TO E. UNFORTUNATELY...
SKEPTICISM REMAINS. UNTIL THE PRECIP ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND FILLS
IN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE SHOWERS AS MORE
THAN A TEMPO GROUP. WILL ALSO NOT INCLUDE ANY IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE SAME REASON. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
W AND THEN WNW BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR ONCE
AGAIN. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD WITH WIND REMAINING NW THRU THE EVENING. WIND MAY GO
LIGHT NW OR PERHAPS CALM TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT THOSE
DETAILS WERE OMITTED FOR BREVITY.

OUTLOOK...VFR FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE
RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 300736
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.  ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING FOR
WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM...WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE TO THE
WEST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS INTERCEPTING THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS TN/NRN MS. A FEW SHOWERY
ELEMENTS WERE NOTED OVER ERN TN...BUT THIS WAS PROBABLY NOT REACHING
THE GROUND. WILL PUT OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO...WHICH HAS THE ADDED BENEFIT OF ALLOWING WARM ADVECTION TO
BRING THE TEMPS UP ABOVE FREEZING AT THE PEAKS OF THE NC MTNS. ALL
INDICATIONS REMAIN THAT PRECIP WILL IN FACT BLOSSOM TO THE WEST THRU
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND REACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY/AROUND
DAYBREAK. A CONTINUED UPWARD TREND TO PRECIP COVERAGE OVER SRN
MIDDLE TN/NRN AL IS A GOOD INDICATION THAT THE MODELS ARE ON THE
RIGHT TRACK.

THE MODELS TAKE THE BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AS THE SHORT WAVE
ROTATES QUICKLY AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. THIS SHOULD
DRIVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. WILL GO
WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP PROBABILITY ACROSS THE SRN MOUNTAINS/NE
GEORGIA/WRN UPSTATE AS THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING STRETCHES INTO
THAT REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. COVERAGE SHOULD BE NOT
AS GREAT ALONG/N OF I-40 WHERE DOWNSLOPE E OF THE MTNS WILL BE
UNFAVORABLE. WHT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS IF ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN SURVIVE INTO THE MORE UNFAVORABLE AIR MASS ACRS N GEORGIA.
PRECIP CHANCES RAMP DOWN QUICKLY BY MIDDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND
NICELY...ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY...IN SPITE OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY MOVING THRU...BECAUSE OF THE W/NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST CONTINUED NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BENEATH WILL AID COLD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE.  MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  WARM FRONT LEADING THE
CHARGE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE I20 CORRIDOR LATE
IN THE DAY WITH ACTIVATION LIKELY AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD.  AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN NC MTNS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER DECREASING WITH HEATING LOSS...AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT BACK DOORS INTO THE
REGION.  THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  BRIEF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT COMBINED WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP THE WX DRY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST
SOUTHERLY UPGLIDE ATOP POSSIBLE INSITU CAD THURSDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA AND WESTERN NC MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...WITH POPS REMOVED BY MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  POPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING MID/LATE EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT WEAK
INSITU CAD REGIME ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE COASTAL SFC RIDGE.  GFS
ISENTROPIC CHARTS INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THUS CHANCE LEVEL POPS WERE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER EAST ON THE
FRINGE OF UPGLIDE MAXIMA.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AMIDST ONGOING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST GA MTNS.  WEAK INSITU CAD REGIME
RESULTANT FROM ANCHORED COASTAL HIGH OFF THE NC COAST WILL BREAK
DOWN THROUGH LATE MORNING LEADING TO EROSION OF ANY UPGLIDE
ENHANCEMENT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE LEADING TO
IMPROVING WAA REGIME INTO FRIDAY.  MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A COLD FRONT
STRETCHES TO THE SOUTH FROM SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG THE FRONT ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN
IMPROVING WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OUT AHEAD.  THE ECMWF/GFS TREND
TOWARDS SOME DISCONTINUITY LATE IN THE WEEK REGARDING TIMING OF THE
FROPA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  THE ECMWF FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION
WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE MTNS OF WESTERN NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED CONVECTION AHEAD IN THE
MILDLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER
THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR A NOCTURNAL
FROPA THUS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
FOR CONVECTION.  BEYOND THAT THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION TO THE
EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AT THE LATEST ALLOWING FOR COOLER/DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER YET STILL ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS FCST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A BASE OF 050-060 MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS A BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE PRECIP IS FCST TO FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING AT
LEAST A TEMPORARY MVFR CEILING/VIS RESTRICTION TO ALL TAF SITES
VARIOUSLY IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME FROM W TO E. UNFORTUNATELY...
SKEPTICISM REMAINS. UNTIL THE PRECIP ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND FILLS
IN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE SHOWERS AS MORE
THAN A TEMPO GROUP. WILL ALSO NOT INCLUDE ANY IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE SAME REASON. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
W AND THEN WNW BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR ONCE
AGAIN. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD WITH WIND REMAINING NW THRU THE EVENING. WIND MAY GO
LIGHT NW OR PERHAPS CALM TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT THOSE
DETAILS WERE OMITTED FOR BREVITY.

OUTLOOK...VFR FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE
RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 300736
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.  ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING FOR
WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM...WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE TO THE
WEST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS INTERCEPTING THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS TN/NRN MS. A FEW SHOWERY
ELEMENTS WERE NOTED OVER ERN TN...BUT THIS WAS PROBABLY NOT REACHING
THE GROUND. WILL PUT OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO...WHICH HAS THE ADDED BENEFIT OF ALLOWING WARM ADVECTION TO
BRING THE TEMPS UP ABOVE FREEZING AT THE PEAKS OF THE NC MTNS. ALL
INDICATIONS REMAIN THAT PRECIP WILL IN FACT BLOSSOM TO THE WEST THRU
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND REACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY/AROUND
DAYBREAK. A CONTINUED UPWARD TREND TO PRECIP COVERAGE OVER SRN
MIDDLE TN/NRN AL IS A GOOD INDICATION THAT THE MODELS ARE ON THE
RIGHT TRACK.

THE MODELS TAKE THE BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AS THE SHORT WAVE
ROTATES QUICKLY AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. THIS SHOULD
DRIVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. WILL GO
WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP PROBABILITY ACROSS THE SRN MOUNTAINS/NE
GEORGIA/WRN UPSTATE AS THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING STRETCHES INTO
THAT REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. COVERAGE SHOULD BE NOT
AS GREAT ALONG/N OF I-40 WHERE DOWNSLOPE E OF THE MTNS WILL BE
UNFAVORABLE. WHT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS IF ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN SURVIVE INTO THE MORE UNFAVORABLE AIR MASS ACRS N GEORGIA.
PRECIP CHANCES RAMP DOWN QUICKLY BY MIDDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND
NICELY...ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY...IN SPITE OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY MOVING THRU...BECAUSE OF THE W/NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING AMIDST CONTINUED NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BENEATH WILL AID COLD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE.  MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  WARM FRONT LEADING THE
CHARGE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE I20 CORRIDOR LATE
IN THE DAY WITH ACTIVATION LIKELY AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD.  AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN NC MTNS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER DECREASING WITH HEATING LOSS...AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT BACK DOORS INTO THE
REGION.  THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  BRIEF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT COMBINED WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP THE WX DRY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF RETURNING MOIST
SOUTHERLY UPGLIDE ATOP POSSIBLE INSITU CAD THURSDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE FCST...POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA AND WESTERN NC MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...WITH POPS REMOVED BY MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  POPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING MID/LATE EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT WEAK
INSITU CAD REGIME ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE COASTAL SFC RIDGE.  GFS
ISENTROPIC CHARTS INDICATE IMPROVING UPGLIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THUS CHANCE LEVEL POPS WERE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER EAST ON THE
FRINGE OF UPGLIDE MAXIMA.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DESPITE THE WEAK FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY MORNING AMIDST ONGOING UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST NC AND NORTHEAST GA MTNS.  WEAK INSITU CAD REGIME
RESULTANT FROM ANCHORED COASTAL HIGH OFF THE NC COAST WILL BREAK
DOWN THROUGH LATE MORNING LEADING TO EROSION OF ANY UPGLIDE
ENHANCEMENT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE LEADING TO
IMPROVING WAA REGIME INTO FRIDAY.  MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A COLD FRONT
STRETCHES TO THE SOUTH FROM SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG THE FRONT ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN
IMPROVING WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OUT AHEAD.  THE ECMWF/GFS TREND
TOWARDS SOME DISCONTINUITY LATE IN THE WEEK REGARDING TIMING OF THE
FROPA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  THE ECMWF FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION
WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE MTNS OF WESTERN NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED CONVECTION AHEAD IN THE
MILDLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER
THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF.  BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR A NOCTURNAL
FROPA THUS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
FOR CONVECTION.  BEYOND THAT THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION TO THE
EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AT THE LATEST ALLOWING FOR COOLER/DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER YET STILL ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS FCST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A BASE OF 050-060 MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS A BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE PRECIP IS FCST TO FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING AT
LEAST A TEMPORARY MVFR CEILING/VIS RESTRICTION TO ALL TAF SITES
VARIOUSLY IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME FROM W TO E. UNFORTUNATELY...
SKEPTICISM REMAINS. UNTIL THE PRECIP ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND FILLS
IN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE SHOWERS AS MORE
THAN A TEMPO GROUP. WILL ALSO NOT INCLUDE ANY IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE SAME REASON. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
W AND THEN WNW BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR ONCE
AGAIN. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD WITH WIND REMAINING NW THRU THE EVENING. WIND MAY GO
LIGHT NW OR PERHAPS CALM TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT THOSE
DETAILS WERE OMITTED FOR BREVITY.

OUTLOOK...VFR FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE
RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 300604
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 530 AM...WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE TO THE
WEST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS INTERCEPTING THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS TN/NRN MS. A FEW SHOWERY
ELEMENTS WERE NOTED OVER ERN TN...BUT THIS WAS PROBABLY NOT REACHING
THE GROUND. WILL PUT OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO...WHICH HAS THE ADDED BENEFIT OF ALLOWING WARM ADVECTION TO
BRING THE TEMPS UP ABOVE FREEZING AT THE PEAKS OF THE NC MTNS. ALL
INDICATIONS REMAIN THAT PRECIP WILL IN FACT BLOSSOM TO THE WEST THRU
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND REACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY/AROUND
DAYBREAK. WE SHALL SEE. SOME SKEPTICISM REMAINS.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL EXPAND QUICKLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISS AND TENN
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX INTERACTS WITH A LOW LEVEL JET/INCR WAA AND AN AXIS
OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING E/NE FROM THE ARKLATEX. CLOSER TO HOME...
THE NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISLD
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK MUCAPE OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...IT HAS A HABIT OF OVERDOING THIS...SO WILL MAINTAIN
PRECIP CHARACTER AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. IN THE INTERIM...A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS AN OK HANDLE ON THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE AIR
MASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS OF 02Z...SURFACE WET BULBS WERE
AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MTNS. THIS IS A BIT
LOWER THAN DEPICTED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS...BUT NOT EGREGIOUSLY
SO. A SLIGHT WARMING HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WARM
ADVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL
HOURS OF SLOW WARMING IS IN STORE FOR THE MTNS BEFORE PRECIP
ARRIVES...AND THE OVERWHELMING PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE INDICATES
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIQUID MONDAY MORNING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A BASE OF 050-060 MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS A BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE PRECIP IS FCST TO FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING AT
LEAST A TEMPORARY MVFR CEILING/VIS RESTRICTION TO ALL TAF SITES
VARIOUSLY IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME FROM W TO E. UNFORTUNATELY...
SKEPTICISM REMAINS. UNTIL THE PRECIP ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND FILLS
IN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE SHOWERS AS MORE
THAN A TEMPO GROUP. WILL ALSO NOT INCLUDE ANY IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE SAME REASON. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
W AND THEN WNW BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR ONCE
AGAIN. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD WITH WIND REMAINING NW THRU THE EVENING. WIND MAY GO
LIGHT NW OR PERHAPS CALM TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT THOSE
DETAILS WERE OMITTED FOR BREVITY.

OUTLOOK...VFR FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE
RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 300604
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 530 AM...WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE TO THE
WEST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS INTERCEPTING THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS TN/NRN MS. A FEW SHOWERY
ELEMENTS WERE NOTED OVER ERN TN...BUT THIS WAS PROBABLY NOT REACHING
THE GROUND. WILL PUT OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO...WHICH HAS THE ADDED BENEFIT OF ALLOWING WARM ADVECTION TO
BRING THE TEMPS UP ABOVE FREEZING AT THE PEAKS OF THE NC MTNS. ALL
INDICATIONS REMAIN THAT PRECIP WILL IN FACT BLOSSOM TO THE WEST THRU
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND REACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY/AROUND
DAYBREAK. WE SHALL SEE. SOME SKEPTICISM REMAINS.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL EXPAND QUICKLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISS AND TENN
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX INTERACTS WITH A LOW LEVEL JET/INCR WAA AND AN AXIS
OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING E/NE FROM THE ARKLATEX. CLOSER TO HOME...
THE NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISLD
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK MUCAPE OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...IT HAS A HABIT OF OVERDOING THIS...SO WILL MAINTAIN
PRECIP CHARACTER AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. IN THE INTERIM...A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS AN OK HANDLE ON THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE AIR
MASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS OF 02Z...SURFACE WET BULBS WERE
AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MTNS. THIS IS A BIT
LOWER THAN DEPICTED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS...BUT NOT EGREGIOUSLY
SO. A SLIGHT WARMING HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WARM
ADVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL
HOURS OF SLOW WARMING IS IN STORE FOR THE MTNS BEFORE PRECIP
ARRIVES...AND THE OVERWHELMING PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE INDICATES
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIQUID MONDAY MORNING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A BASE OF 050-060 MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS A BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE PRECIP IS FCST TO FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING AT
LEAST A TEMPORARY MVFR CEILING/VIS RESTRICTION TO ALL TAF SITES
VARIOUSLY IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME FROM W TO E. UNFORTUNATELY...
SKEPTICISM REMAINS. UNTIL THE PRECIP ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND FILLS
IN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE SHOWERS AS MORE
THAN A TEMPO GROUP. WILL ALSO NOT INCLUDE ANY IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE SAME REASON. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
W AND THEN WNW BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR ONCE
AGAIN. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD WITH WIND REMAINING NW THRU THE EVENING. WIND MAY GO
LIGHT NW OR PERHAPS CALM TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT THOSE
DETAILS WERE OMITTED FOR BREVITY.

OUTLOOK...VFR FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE
RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 300604
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 530 AM...WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE TO THE
WEST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS INTERCEPTING THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS TN/NRN MS. A FEW SHOWERY
ELEMENTS WERE NOTED OVER ERN TN...BUT THIS WAS PROBABLY NOT REACHING
THE GROUND. WILL PUT OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO...WHICH HAS THE ADDED BENEFIT OF ALLOWING WARM ADVECTION TO
BRING THE TEMPS UP ABOVE FREEZING AT THE PEAKS OF THE NC MTNS. ALL
INDICATIONS REMAIN THAT PRECIP WILL IN FACT BLOSSOM TO THE WEST THRU
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND REACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY/AROUND
DAYBREAK. WE SHALL SEE. SOME SKEPTICISM REMAINS.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL EXPAND QUICKLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISS AND TENN
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX INTERACTS WITH A LOW LEVEL JET/INCR WAA AND AN AXIS
OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING E/NE FROM THE ARKLATEX. CLOSER TO HOME...
THE NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISLD
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK MUCAPE OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...IT HAS A HABIT OF OVERDOING THIS...SO WILL MAINTAIN
PRECIP CHARACTER AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. IN THE INTERIM...A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS AN OK HANDLE ON THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE AIR
MASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS OF 02Z...SURFACE WET BULBS WERE
AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MTNS. THIS IS A BIT
LOWER THAN DEPICTED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS...BUT NOT EGREGIOUSLY
SO. A SLIGHT WARMING HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WARM
ADVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL
HOURS OF SLOW WARMING IS IN STORE FOR THE MTNS BEFORE PRECIP
ARRIVES...AND THE OVERWHELMING PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE INDICATES
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIQUID MONDAY MORNING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A BASE OF 050-060 MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS A BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE PRECIP IS FCST TO FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING AT
LEAST A TEMPORARY MVFR CEILING/VIS RESTRICTION TO ALL TAF SITES
VARIOUSLY IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME FROM W TO E. UNFORTUNATELY...
SKEPTICISM REMAINS. UNTIL THE PRECIP ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND FILLS
IN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE SHOWERS AS MORE
THAN A TEMPO GROUP. WILL ALSO NOT INCLUDE ANY IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE SAME REASON. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
W AND THEN WNW BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR ONCE
AGAIN. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD WITH WIND REMAINING NW THRU THE EVENING. WIND MAY GO
LIGHT NW OR PERHAPS CALM TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT THOSE
DETAILS WERE OMITTED FOR BREVITY.

OUTLOOK...VFR FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE
RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 300604
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 530 AM...WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE TO THE
WEST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS INTERCEPTING THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS TN/NRN MS. A FEW SHOWERY
ELEMENTS WERE NOTED OVER ERN TN...BUT THIS WAS PROBABLY NOT REACHING
THE GROUND. WILL PUT OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIP FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO...WHICH HAS THE ADDED BENEFIT OF ALLOWING WARM ADVECTION TO
BRING THE TEMPS UP ABOVE FREEZING AT THE PEAKS OF THE NC MTNS. ALL
INDICATIONS REMAIN THAT PRECIP WILL IN FACT BLOSSOM TO THE WEST THRU
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND REACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY/AROUND
DAYBREAK. WE SHALL SEE. SOME SKEPTICISM REMAINS.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL EXPAND QUICKLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISS AND TENN
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX INTERACTS WITH A LOW LEVEL JET/INCR WAA AND AN AXIS
OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING E/NE FROM THE ARKLATEX. CLOSER TO HOME...
THE NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISLD
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK MUCAPE OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...IT HAS A HABIT OF OVERDOING THIS...SO WILL MAINTAIN
PRECIP CHARACTER AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. IN THE INTERIM...A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS AN OK HANDLE ON THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE AIR
MASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS OF 02Z...SURFACE WET BULBS WERE
AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MTNS. THIS IS A BIT
LOWER THAN DEPICTED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS...BUT NOT EGREGIOUSLY
SO. A SLIGHT WARMING HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WARM
ADVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL
HOURS OF SLOW WARMING IS IN STORE FOR THE MTNS BEFORE PRECIP
ARRIVES...AND THE OVERWHELMING PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE INDICATES
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIQUID MONDAY MORNING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A BASE OF 050-060 MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS A BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE PRECIP IS FCST TO FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING AT
LEAST A TEMPORARY MVFR CEILING/VIS RESTRICTION TO ALL TAF SITES
VARIOUSLY IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME FROM W TO E. UNFORTUNATELY...
SKEPTICISM REMAINS. UNTIL THE PRECIP ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND FILLS
IN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE SHOWERS AS MORE
THAN A TEMPO GROUP. WILL ALSO NOT INCLUDE ANY IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE SAME REASON. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
W AND THEN WNW BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR ONCE
AGAIN. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD WITH WIND REMAINING NW THRU THE EVENING. WIND MAY GO
LIGHT NW OR PERHAPS CALM TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT THOSE
DETAILS WERE OMITTED FOR BREVITY.

OUTLOOK...VFR FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK...PERHAPS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH MORE
RESTRICTIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 300244
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTION WILL EXPAND QUICKLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MISS AND TENN VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS COLD
FRONT/ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX INTERACTS WITH A LOW LEVEL
JET/INCR WAA AND AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING E/NE FROM THE
ARKLATEX. CLOSER TO HOME...THE NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISLD ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA
AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS SOME
WEAK MUCAPE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT HAS A HABIT OF OVERDOING
THIS...SO WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHARACTER AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. IN THE
INTERIM...A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS AN OK HANDLE ON THE VERY
DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS OF
02Z...SURFACE WET BULBS WERE AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE MTNS. THIS IS A BIT LOWER THAN DEPICTED BY THE SHORT TERM
MODELS...BUT NOT EGREGIOUSLY SO. A SLIGHT WARMING HAS ALSO BEEN
NOTED IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WARM ADVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES.
THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL HOURS OF SLOW WARMING IS IN
STORE FOR THE MTNS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES...AND THE OVERWHELMING
PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE INDICATES PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM
OF LIQUID MONDAY MORNING.

AS OF 745 PM...NARROW BAND OF STRATOCU CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
WESTERN ZONES AT MID-EVENING...WHILE CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO SPILL
INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER APPEARS
TO BE IN ORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. UPSTREAM...
SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY FILLING IN FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO/MID-MISS VALLEY. THEREFORE...POPS LATER TONIGHT
STILL APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH BASED UPON
THE LATEST OBS TRENDS...INCREASING POPS WERE DELAYED A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FAST MOVING BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ALOFT BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...REINTRODUCING CLOUD COVER AND ALSO CREATING A WARM NOSE OF
SORTS THAT WILL CAP THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING COMES INTO PLAY AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
09-12Z...CONCURRENT WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LLVLS
AND WITH DEEP SATURATION. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY UNANIMOUS IN
BRINGING A BAND OF QPF ACRS THE AREA AS A RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT
AGAIN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS TO CONFIDENTLY FORECAST AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM NOSE AND THE INCUMBENT DRY AIR AT
THE SFC POSE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C
THROUGHOUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS UNTIL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE
WOULD SUGGEST NO NUCLEATION...AND FZRA RESULTING AT THE SFC IF THE
WET BULBS WERE TO COOL ENOUGH. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
PRECIP WILL NOT GET UNDERWAY UNTIL AFTER THE WET BULBS WARM ABOVE
0C. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS DO GET A SNOW OR RA/SN MENTION
AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ERODED THE WARM
NOSE AND AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME VFR CLOUDS IN THE 045-
060 RANGE MAY APPROACH KAND/KAVL BY LATE EVENING. CHANCES FOR -RA
AND RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A FAST-
MOVING COLD FRONT/UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.
GUIDANCE IS OFFERING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW LOW CIGS WILL LOWER
MONDAY MORNING...BUT BASED UPON THE DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...AND THE NATURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
THAT THE IFR CIGS SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE...HAVE MAINTAINED AN MVFR FORECAST
ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RA AT MOST TERMINALS FROM AROUND
SUNRISE THROUGH MID-MORNING OR SO. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
RATHER QUICKLY...WITH VFR AND/OR SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT S/SW WINDS AT 5-10 ITS OVERNIGHT WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OVER THE AREA...WITH NW WINDS POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...VFR UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY WED. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY
WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 300244
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTION WILL EXPAND QUICKLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MISS AND TENN VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS COLD
FRONT/ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX INTERACTS WITH A LOW LEVEL
JET/INCR WAA AND AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING E/NE FROM THE
ARKLATEX. CLOSER TO HOME...THE NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISLD ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA
AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS SOME
WEAK MUCAPE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT HAS A HABIT OF OVERDOING
THIS...SO WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHARACTER AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. IN THE
INTERIM...A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS AN OK HANDLE ON THE VERY
DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS OF
02Z...SURFACE WET BULBS WERE AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE MTNS. THIS IS A BIT LOWER THAN DEPICTED BY THE SHORT TERM
MODELS...BUT NOT EGREGIOUSLY SO. A SLIGHT WARMING HAS ALSO BEEN
NOTED IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WARM ADVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES.
THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL HOURS OF SLOW WARMING IS IN
STORE FOR THE MTNS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES...AND THE OVERWHELMING
PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE INDICATES PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM
OF LIQUID MONDAY MORNING.

AS OF 745 PM...NARROW BAND OF STRATOCU CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
WESTERN ZONES AT MID-EVENING...WHILE CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO SPILL
INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER APPEARS
TO BE IN ORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. UPSTREAM...
SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY FILLING IN FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO/MID-MISS VALLEY. THEREFORE...POPS LATER TONIGHT
STILL APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH BASED UPON
THE LATEST OBS TRENDS...INCREASING POPS WERE DELAYED A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FAST MOVING BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ALOFT BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...REINTRODUCING CLOUD COVER AND ALSO CREATING A WARM NOSE OF
SORTS THAT WILL CAP THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING COMES INTO PLAY AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
09-12Z...CONCURRENT WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LLVLS
AND WITH DEEP SATURATION. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY UNANIMOUS IN
BRINGING A BAND OF QPF ACRS THE AREA AS A RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT
AGAIN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS TO CONFIDENTLY FORECAST AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM NOSE AND THE INCUMBENT DRY AIR AT
THE SFC POSE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C
THROUGHOUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS UNTIL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE
WOULD SUGGEST NO NUCLEATION...AND FZRA RESULTING AT THE SFC IF THE
WET BULBS WERE TO COOL ENOUGH. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
PRECIP WILL NOT GET UNDERWAY UNTIL AFTER THE WET BULBS WARM ABOVE
0C. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS DO GET A SNOW OR RA/SN MENTION
AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ERODED THE WARM
NOSE AND AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME VFR CLOUDS IN THE 045-
060 RANGE MAY APPROACH KAND/KAVL BY LATE EVENING. CHANCES FOR -RA
AND RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A FAST-
MOVING COLD FRONT/UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.
GUIDANCE IS OFFERING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW LOW CIGS WILL LOWER
MONDAY MORNING...BUT BASED UPON THE DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...AND THE NATURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
THAT THE IFR CIGS SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE...HAVE MAINTAINED AN MVFR FORECAST
ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RA AT MOST TERMINALS FROM AROUND
SUNRISE THROUGH MID-MORNING OR SO. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
RATHER QUICKLY...WITH VFR AND/OR SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT S/SW WINDS AT 5-10 ITS OVERNIGHT WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OVER THE AREA...WITH NW WINDS POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...VFR UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY WED. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY
WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 300244
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTION WILL EXPAND QUICKLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MISS AND TENN VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS COLD
FRONT/ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX INTERACTS WITH A LOW LEVEL
JET/INCR WAA AND AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING E/NE FROM THE
ARKLATEX. CLOSER TO HOME...THE NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISLD ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA
AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS SOME
WEAK MUCAPE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT HAS A HABIT OF OVERDOING
THIS...SO WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHARACTER AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. IN THE
INTERIM...A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS AN OK HANDLE ON THE VERY
DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS OF
02Z...SURFACE WET BULBS WERE AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE MTNS. THIS IS A BIT LOWER THAN DEPICTED BY THE SHORT TERM
MODELS...BUT NOT EGREGIOUSLY SO. A SLIGHT WARMING HAS ALSO BEEN
NOTED IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WARM ADVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES.
THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL HOURS OF SLOW WARMING IS IN
STORE FOR THE MTNS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES...AND THE OVERWHELMING
PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE INDICATES PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM
OF LIQUID MONDAY MORNING.

AS OF 745 PM...NARROW BAND OF STRATOCU CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
WESTERN ZONES AT MID-EVENING...WHILE CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO SPILL
INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER APPEARS
TO BE IN ORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. UPSTREAM...
SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY FILLING IN FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO/MID-MISS VALLEY. THEREFORE...POPS LATER TONIGHT
STILL APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH BASED UPON
THE LATEST OBS TRENDS...INCREASING POPS WERE DELAYED A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FAST MOVING BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ALOFT BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...REINTRODUCING CLOUD COVER AND ALSO CREATING A WARM NOSE OF
SORTS THAT WILL CAP THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING COMES INTO PLAY AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
09-12Z...CONCURRENT WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LLVLS
AND WITH DEEP SATURATION. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY UNANIMOUS IN
BRINGING A BAND OF QPF ACRS THE AREA AS A RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT
AGAIN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS TO CONFIDENTLY FORECAST AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM NOSE AND THE INCUMBENT DRY AIR AT
THE SFC POSE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C
THROUGHOUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS UNTIL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE
WOULD SUGGEST NO NUCLEATION...AND FZRA RESULTING AT THE SFC IF THE
WET BULBS WERE TO COOL ENOUGH. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
PRECIP WILL NOT GET UNDERWAY UNTIL AFTER THE WET BULBS WARM ABOVE
0C. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS DO GET A SNOW OR RA/SN MENTION
AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ERODED THE WARM
NOSE AND AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME VFR CLOUDS IN THE 045-
060 RANGE MAY APPROACH KAND/KAVL BY LATE EVENING. CHANCES FOR -RA
AND RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A FAST-
MOVING COLD FRONT/UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.
GUIDANCE IS OFFERING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW LOW CIGS WILL LOWER
MONDAY MORNING...BUT BASED UPON THE DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...AND THE NATURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
THAT THE IFR CIGS SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE...HAVE MAINTAINED AN MVFR FORECAST
ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RA AT MOST TERMINALS FROM AROUND
SUNRISE THROUGH MID-MORNING OR SO. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
RATHER QUICKLY...WITH VFR AND/OR SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT S/SW WINDS AT 5-10 ITS OVERNIGHT WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OVER THE AREA...WITH NW WINDS POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...VFR UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY WED. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY
WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 300244
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTION WILL EXPAND QUICKLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MISS AND TENN VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS COLD
FRONT/ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX INTERACTS WITH A LOW LEVEL
JET/INCR WAA AND AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING E/NE FROM THE
ARKLATEX. CLOSER TO HOME...THE NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISLD ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA
AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS SOME
WEAK MUCAPE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT HAS A HABIT OF OVERDOING
THIS...SO WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHARACTER AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. IN THE
INTERIM...A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS AN OK HANDLE ON THE VERY
DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS OF
02Z...SURFACE WET BULBS WERE AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE MTNS. THIS IS A BIT LOWER THAN DEPICTED BY THE SHORT TERM
MODELS...BUT NOT EGREGIOUSLY SO. A SLIGHT WARMING HAS ALSO BEEN
NOTED IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WARM ADVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES.
THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL HOURS OF SLOW WARMING IS IN
STORE FOR THE MTNS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES...AND THE OVERWHELMING
PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE INDICATES PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM
OF LIQUID MONDAY MORNING.

AS OF 745 PM...NARROW BAND OF STRATOCU CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
WESTERN ZONES AT MID-EVENING...WHILE CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO SPILL
INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER APPEARS
TO BE IN ORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. UPSTREAM...
SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY FILLING IN FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO/MID-MISS VALLEY. THEREFORE...POPS LATER TONIGHT
STILL APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH BASED UPON
THE LATEST OBS TRENDS...INCREASING POPS WERE DELAYED A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FAST MOVING BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ALOFT BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...REINTRODUCING CLOUD COVER AND ALSO CREATING A WARM NOSE OF
SORTS THAT WILL CAP THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING COMES INTO PLAY AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
09-12Z...CONCURRENT WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LLVLS
AND WITH DEEP SATURATION. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY UNANIMOUS IN
BRINGING A BAND OF QPF ACRS THE AREA AS A RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT
AGAIN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS TO CONFIDENTLY FORECAST AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM NOSE AND THE INCUMBENT DRY AIR AT
THE SFC POSE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C
THROUGHOUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS UNTIL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE
WOULD SUGGEST NO NUCLEATION...AND FZRA RESULTING AT THE SFC IF THE
WET BULBS WERE TO COOL ENOUGH. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
PRECIP WILL NOT GET UNDERWAY UNTIL AFTER THE WET BULBS WARM ABOVE
0C. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS DO GET A SNOW OR RA/SN MENTION
AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ERODED THE WARM
NOSE AND AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME VFR CLOUDS IN THE 045-
060 RANGE MAY APPROACH KAND/KAVL BY LATE EVENING. CHANCES FOR -RA
AND RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A FAST-
MOVING COLD FRONT/UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.
GUIDANCE IS OFFERING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW LOW CIGS WILL LOWER
MONDAY MORNING...BUT BASED UPON THE DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...AND THE NATURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
THAT THE IFR CIGS SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE...HAVE MAINTAINED AN MVFR FORECAST
ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RA AT MOST TERMINALS FROM AROUND
SUNRISE THROUGH MID-MORNING OR SO. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
RATHER QUICKLY...WITH VFR AND/OR SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT S/SW WINDS AT 5-10 ITS OVERNIGHT WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OVER THE AREA...WITH NW WINDS POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...VFR UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY WED. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY
WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 292350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...NARROW BAND OF STRATOCU CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
WESTERN ZONES AT MID-EVENING...WHILE CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO SPILL
INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER APPEARS
TO BE IN ORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. UPSTREAM...
SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY FILLING IN FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO/MID-MISS VALLEY. THEREFORE...POPS LATER TONIGHT
STILL APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH BASED UPON
THE LATEST OBS TRENDS...INCREASING POPS WERE DELAYED A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FAST MOVING BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ALOFT BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...REINTRODUCING CLOUD COVER AND ALSO CREATING A WARM NOSE OF
SORTS THAT WILL CAP THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING COMES INTO PLAY AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
09-12Z...CONCURRENT WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LLVLS
AND WITH DEEP SATURATION. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY UNANIMOUS IN
BRINGING A BAND OF QPF ACRS THE AREA AS A RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT
AGAIN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS TO CONFIDENTLY FORECAST AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM NOSE AND THE INCUMBENT DRY AIR AT
THE SFC POSE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C
THROUGHOUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS UNTIL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE
WOULD SUGGEST NO NUCLEATION...AND FZRA RESULTING AT THE SFC IF THE
WET BULBS WERE TO COOL ENOUGH. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
PRECIP WILL NOT GET UNDERWAY UNTIL AFTER THE WET BULBS WARM ABOVE
0C. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS DO GET A SNOW OR RA/SN MENTION
AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ERODED THE WARM
NOSE AND AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME VFR CLOUDS IN THE 045-
060 RANGE MAY APPROACH KAND/KAVL BY LATE EVENING. CHANCES FOR -RA
AND RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A FAST-
MOVING COLD FRONT/UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.
GUIDANCE IS OFFERING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW LOW CIGS WILL LOWER
MONDAY MORNING...BUT BASED UPON THE DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...AND THE NATURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
THAT THE IFR CIGS SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE...HAVE MAINTAINED AN MVFR FORECAST
ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RA AT MOST TERMINALS FROM AROUND
SUNRISE THROUGH MID-MORNING OR SO. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
RATHER QUICKLY...WITH VFR AND/OR SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT S/SW WINDS AT 5-10 ITS OVERNIGHT WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OVER THE AREA...WITH NW WINDS POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...VFR UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY WED. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY
WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. RH
VALUES HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT WITH OCCASIONAL LOW GUSTS. ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER EXISTS HOWEVER DUE TO DRY FUELS. IN COORDINATION WITH
GA LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THRU 7 PM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS62 KGSP 292350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...NARROW BAND OF STRATOCU CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
WESTERN ZONES AT MID-EVENING...WHILE CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO SPILL
INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER APPEARS
TO BE IN ORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. UPSTREAM...
SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY FILLING IN FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO/MID-MISS VALLEY. THEREFORE...POPS LATER TONIGHT
STILL APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH BASED UPON
THE LATEST OBS TRENDS...INCREASING POPS WERE DELAYED A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FAST MOVING BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ALOFT BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...REINTRODUCING CLOUD COVER AND ALSO CREATING A WARM NOSE OF
SORTS THAT WILL CAP THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING COMES INTO PLAY AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
09-12Z...CONCURRENT WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LLVLS
AND WITH DEEP SATURATION. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY UNANIMOUS IN
BRINGING A BAND OF QPF ACRS THE AREA AS A RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT
AGAIN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS TO CONFIDENTLY FORECAST AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM NOSE AND THE INCUMBENT DRY AIR AT
THE SFC POSE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C
THROUGHOUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS UNTIL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE
WOULD SUGGEST NO NUCLEATION...AND FZRA RESULTING AT THE SFC IF THE
WET BULBS WERE TO COOL ENOUGH. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
PRECIP WILL NOT GET UNDERWAY UNTIL AFTER THE WET BULBS WARM ABOVE
0C. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS DO GET A SNOW OR RA/SN MENTION
AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ERODED THE WARM
NOSE AND AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME VFR CLOUDS IN THE 045-
060 RANGE MAY APPROACH KAND/KAVL BY LATE EVENING. CHANCES FOR -RA
AND RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A FAST-
MOVING COLD FRONT/UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.
GUIDANCE IS OFFERING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW LOW CIGS WILL LOWER
MONDAY MORNING...BUT BASED UPON THE DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...AND THE NATURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
THAT THE IFR CIGS SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE...HAVE MAINTAINED AN MVFR FORECAST
ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RA AT MOST TERMINALS FROM AROUND
SUNRISE THROUGH MID-MORNING OR SO. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
RATHER QUICKLY...WITH VFR AND/OR SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT S/SW WINDS AT 5-10 ITS OVERNIGHT WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OVER THE AREA...WITH NW WINDS POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...VFR UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY WED. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY
WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. RH
VALUES HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT WITH OCCASIONAL LOW GUSTS. ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER EXISTS HOWEVER DUE TO DRY FUELS. IN COORDINATION WITH
GA LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THRU 7 PM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 292350
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...NARROW BAND OF STRATOCU CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
WESTERN ZONES AT MID-EVENING...WHILE CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO SPILL
INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER APPEARS
TO BE IN ORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. UPSTREAM...
SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY FILLING IN FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO/MID-MISS VALLEY. THEREFORE...POPS LATER TONIGHT
STILL APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH BASED UPON
THE LATEST OBS TRENDS...INCREASING POPS WERE DELAYED A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FAST MOVING BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ALOFT BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...REINTRODUCING CLOUD COVER AND ALSO CREATING A WARM NOSE OF
SORTS THAT WILL CAP THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING COMES INTO PLAY AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
09-12Z...CONCURRENT WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LLVLS
AND WITH DEEP SATURATION. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY UNANIMOUS IN
BRINGING A BAND OF QPF ACRS THE AREA AS A RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT
AGAIN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS TO CONFIDENTLY FORECAST AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM NOSE AND THE INCUMBENT DRY AIR AT
THE SFC POSE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C
THROUGHOUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS UNTIL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE
WOULD SUGGEST NO NUCLEATION...AND FZRA RESULTING AT THE SFC IF THE
WET BULBS WERE TO COOL ENOUGH. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
PRECIP WILL NOT GET UNDERWAY UNTIL AFTER THE WET BULBS WARM ABOVE
0C. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS DO GET A SNOW OR RA/SN MENTION
AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ERODED THE WARM
NOSE AND AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME VFR CLOUDS IN THE 045-
060 RANGE MAY APPROACH KAND/KAVL BY LATE EVENING. CHANCES FOR -RA
AND RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A FAST-
MOVING COLD FRONT/UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.
GUIDANCE IS OFFERING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW LOW CIGS WILL LOWER
MONDAY MORNING...BUT BASED UPON THE DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...AND THE NATURE AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
THAT THE IFR CIGS SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE...HAVE MAINTAINED AN MVFR FORECAST
ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RA AT MOST TERMINALS FROM AROUND
SUNRISE THROUGH MID-MORNING OR SO. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
RATHER QUICKLY...WITH VFR AND/OR SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT S/SW WINDS AT 5-10 ITS OVERNIGHT WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OVER THE AREA...WITH NW WINDS POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...VFR UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY WED. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY
WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. RH
VALUES HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT WITH OCCASIONAL LOW GUSTS. ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER EXISTS HOWEVER DUE TO DRY FUELS. IN COORDINATION WITH
GA LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THRU 7 PM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291903
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FAST MOVING BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ALOFT BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...REINTRODUCING CLOUD COVER AND ALSO CREATING A WARM NOSE OF
SORTS THAT WILL CAP THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING COMES INTO PLAY AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
09-12Z...CONCURRENT WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LLVLS
AND WITH DEEP SATURATION. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY UNANIMOUS IN
BRINGING A BAND OF QPF ACRS THE AREA AS A RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT
AGAIN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS TO CONFIDENTLY FORECAST AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM NOSE AND THE INCUMBENT DRY AIR AT
THE SFC POSE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C
THROUGHOUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS UNTIL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE
WOULD SUGGEST NO NUCLEATION...AND FZRA RESULTING AT THE SFC IF THE
WET BULBS WERE TO COOL ENOUGH. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
PRECIP WILL NOT GET UNDERWAY UNTIL AFTER THE WET BULBS WARM ABOVE
0C. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS DO GET A SNOW OR RA/SN MENTION
AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ERODED THE WARM
NOSE AND AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MRNG. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEE
TROUGH BOTH HAVING INFLUENCE...WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SWLY LATER THIS
AFTN AND REMAIN THERE THRU TONIGHT. FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA MON MRNG. PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY IN THE COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK BUT MAY LINGER INTO MIDDAY.
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED...BUT LLVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FROPA
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN MVFR CIG...NOTWITHSTANDING ANY RESTRICTIONS
DURING SHRA. WINDS MAY GO NWLY BY 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.

ELSEWHERE...LARGELY AS AT KCLT THOUGH WITH GENERALLY MORE CERTAINTY
AS FAR AS SWLY WINDS THIS AFTN. MIDLEVEL CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF SHRA
INVOF THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOST LIKELY
ALLOWING VSBY TO REMAIN HIGH. WINDS FLIP TO NW AT KAVL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND A LITTLE LATER AT KHKY...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE SW QUADRANT ELSEWHERE THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERMOON AHEAD OF THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. RH VALUES
HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT BUT WITH OCCASIONAL LOW GUSTS. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
EXISTS HOWEVER DUE TO DRY FUELS. IN COORDINATION WITH GA LAND
MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
GA THRU 7 PM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291903
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FAST MOVING BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ALOFT BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...REINTRODUCING CLOUD COVER AND ALSO CREATING A WARM NOSE OF
SORTS THAT WILL CAP THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING COMES INTO PLAY AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
09-12Z...CONCURRENT WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LLVLS
AND WITH DEEP SATURATION. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY UNANIMOUS IN
BRINGING A BAND OF QPF ACRS THE AREA AS A RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT
AGAIN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS TO CONFIDENTLY FORECAST AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM NOSE AND THE INCUMBENT DRY AIR AT
THE SFC POSE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C
THROUGHOUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS UNTIL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE
WOULD SUGGEST NO NUCLEATION...AND FZRA RESULTING AT THE SFC IF THE
WET BULBS WERE TO COOL ENOUGH. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
PRECIP WILL NOT GET UNDERWAY UNTIL AFTER THE WET BULBS WARM ABOVE
0C. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS DO GET A SNOW OR RA/SN MENTION
AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ERODED THE WARM
NOSE AND AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MRNG. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEE
TROUGH BOTH HAVING INFLUENCE...WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SWLY LATER THIS
AFTN AND REMAIN THERE THRU TONIGHT. FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA MON MRNG. PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY IN THE COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK BUT MAY LINGER INTO MIDDAY.
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED...BUT LLVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FROPA
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN MVFR CIG...NOTWITHSTANDING ANY RESTRICTIONS
DURING SHRA. WINDS MAY GO NWLY BY 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.

ELSEWHERE...LARGELY AS AT KCLT THOUGH WITH GENERALLY MORE CERTAINTY
AS FAR AS SWLY WINDS THIS AFTN. MIDLEVEL CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF SHRA
INVOF THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOST LIKELY
ALLOWING VSBY TO REMAIN HIGH. WINDS FLIP TO NW AT KAVL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND A LITTLE LATER AT KHKY...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE SW QUADRANT ELSEWHERE THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERMOON AHEAD OF THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. RH VALUES
HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT BUT WITH OCCASIONAL LOW GUSTS. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
EXISTS HOWEVER DUE TO DRY FUELS. IN COORDINATION WITH GA LAND
MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
GA THRU 7 PM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291903
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FAST MOVING BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ALOFT BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...REINTRODUCING CLOUD COVER AND ALSO CREATING A WARM NOSE OF
SORTS THAT WILL CAP THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING COMES INTO PLAY AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
09-12Z...CONCURRENT WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LLVLS
AND WITH DEEP SATURATION. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY UNANIMOUS IN
BRINGING A BAND OF QPF ACRS THE AREA AS A RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT
AGAIN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS TO CONFIDENTLY FORECAST AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM NOSE AND THE INCUMBENT DRY AIR AT
THE SFC POSE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C
THROUGHOUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS UNTIL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE
WOULD SUGGEST NO NUCLEATION...AND FZRA RESULTING AT THE SFC IF THE
WET BULBS WERE TO COOL ENOUGH. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
PRECIP WILL NOT GET UNDERWAY UNTIL AFTER THE WET BULBS WARM ABOVE
0C. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS DO GET A SNOW OR RA/SN MENTION
AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ERODED THE WARM
NOSE AND AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MRNG. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEE
TROUGH BOTH HAVING INFLUENCE...WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SWLY LATER THIS
AFTN AND REMAIN THERE THRU TONIGHT. FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA MON MRNG. PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY IN THE COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK BUT MAY LINGER INTO MIDDAY.
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED...BUT LLVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FROPA
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN MVFR CIG...NOTWITHSTANDING ANY RESTRICTIONS
DURING SHRA. WINDS MAY GO NWLY BY 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.

ELSEWHERE...LARGELY AS AT KCLT THOUGH WITH GENERALLY MORE CERTAINTY
AS FAR AS SWLY WINDS THIS AFTN. MIDLEVEL CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF SHRA
INVOF THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOST LIKELY
ALLOWING VSBY TO REMAIN HIGH. WINDS FLIP TO NW AT KAVL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND A LITTLE LATER AT KHKY...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE SW QUADRANT ELSEWHERE THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERMOON AHEAD OF THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. RH VALUES
HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT BUT WITH OCCASIONAL LOW GUSTS. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
EXISTS HOWEVER DUE TO DRY FUELS. IN COORDINATION WITH GA LAND
MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
GA THRU 7 PM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291903
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FAST MOVING BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ALOFT BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...REINTRODUCING CLOUD COVER AND ALSO CREATING A WARM NOSE OF
SORTS THAT WILL CAP THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING COMES INTO PLAY AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
09-12Z...CONCURRENT WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LLVLS
AND WITH DEEP SATURATION. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY UNANIMOUS IN
BRINGING A BAND OF QPF ACRS THE AREA AS A RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT
AGAIN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS TO CONFIDENTLY FORECAST AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM NOSE AND THE INCUMBENT DRY AIR AT
THE SFC POSE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C
THROUGHOUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS UNTIL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE
WOULD SUGGEST NO NUCLEATION...AND FZRA RESULTING AT THE SFC IF THE
WET BULBS WERE TO COOL ENOUGH. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
PRECIP WILL NOT GET UNDERWAY UNTIL AFTER THE WET BULBS WARM ABOVE
0C. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS DO GET A SNOW OR RA/SN MENTION
AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ERODED THE WARM
NOSE AND AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MRNG. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEE
TROUGH BOTH HAVING INFLUENCE...WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SWLY LATER THIS
AFTN AND REMAIN THERE THRU TONIGHT. FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA MON MRNG. PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY IN THE COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK BUT MAY LINGER INTO MIDDAY.
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED...BUT LLVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FROPA
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN MVFR CIG...NOTWITHSTANDING ANY RESTRICTIONS
DURING SHRA. WINDS MAY GO NWLY BY 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.

ELSEWHERE...LARGELY AS AT KCLT THOUGH WITH GENERALLY MORE CERTAINTY
AS FAR AS SWLY WINDS THIS AFTN. MIDLEVEL CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF SHRA
INVOF THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOST LIKELY
ALLOWING VSBY TO REMAIN HIGH. WINDS FLIP TO NW AT KAVL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND A LITTLE LATER AT KHKY...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE SW QUADRANT ELSEWHERE THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERMOON AHEAD OF THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. RH VALUES
HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT BUT WITH OCCASIONAL LOW GUSTS. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
EXISTS HOWEVER DUE TO DRY FUELS. IN COORDINATION WITH GA LAND
MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
GA THRU 7 PM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291852
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FAST MOVING BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ALOFT BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...REINTRODUCING CLOUD COVER AND ALSO CREATING A WARM NOSE OF
SORTS THAT WILL CAP THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING COMES INTO PLAY AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
09-12Z...CONCURRENT WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LLVLS
AND WITH DEEP SATURATION. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY UNANIMOUS IN
BRINGING A BAND OF QPF ACRS THE AREA AS A RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT
AGAIN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS TO CONFIDENTLY FORECAST AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM NOSE AND THE INCUMBENT DRY AIR AT
THE SFC POSE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C
THROUGHOUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS UNTIL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE
WOULD SUGGEST NO NUCLEATION...AND FZRA RESULTING AT THE SFC IF THE
WET BULBS WERE TO COOL ENOUGH. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
PRECIP WILL NOT GET UNDERWAY UNTIL AFTER THE WET BULBS WARM ABOVE
0C. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS DO GET A SNOW OR RA/SN MENTION
AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ERODED THE WARM
NOSE AND AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXITS OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE
NC MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MRNG. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEE
TROUGH BOTH HAVING INFLUENCE...WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SWLY LATER THIS
AFTN AND REMAIN THERE THRU TONIGHT. FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA MON MRNG. PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY IN THE COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK BUT MAY LINGER INTO MIDDAY.
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED...BUT LLVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FROPA
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN MVFR CIG...NOTWITHSTANDING ANY RESTRICTIONS
DURING SHRA. WINDS MAY GO NWLY BY 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.

ELSEWHERE...LARGELY AS AT KCLT THOUGH WITH GENERALLY MORE CERTAINTY
AS FAR AS SWLY WINDS THIS AFTN. MIDLEVEL CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF SHRA
INVOF THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOST LIKELY
ALLOWING VSBY TO REMAIN HIGH. WINDS FLIP TO NW AT KAVL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND A LITTLE LATER AT KHKY...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE SW QUADRANT ELSEWHERE THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERMOON AHEAD OF THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. RH VALUES
HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT BUT WITH OCCASIONAL LOW GUSTS. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
EXISTS HOWEVER DUE TO DRY FUELS. IN COORDINATION WITH GA LAND
MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
GA THRU 7 PM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291852
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FAST MOVING BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ALOFT BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...REINTRODUCING CLOUD COVER AND ALSO CREATING A WARM NOSE OF
SORTS THAT WILL CAP THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING COMES INTO PLAY AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
09-12Z...CONCURRENT WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LLVLS
AND WITH DEEP SATURATION. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY UNANIMOUS IN
BRINGING A BAND OF QPF ACRS THE AREA AS A RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT
AGAIN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS TO CONFIDENTLY FORECAST AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM NOSE AND THE INCUMBENT DRY AIR AT
THE SFC POSE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C
THROUGHOUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS UNTIL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE
WOULD SUGGEST NO NUCLEATION...AND FZRA RESULTING AT THE SFC IF THE
WET BULBS WERE TO COOL ENOUGH. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
PRECIP WILL NOT GET UNDERWAY UNTIL AFTER THE WET BULBS WARM ABOVE
0C. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS DO GET A SNOW OR RA/SN MENTION
AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ERODED THE WARM
NOSE AND AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXITS OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE
NC MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MRNG. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEE
TROUGH BOTH HAVING INFLUENCE...WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SWLY LATER THIS
AFTN AND REMAIN THERE THRU TONIGHT. FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA MON MRNG. PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY IN THE COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK BUT MAY LINGER INTO MIDDAY.
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED...BUT LLVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FROPA
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN MVFR CIG...NOTWITHSTANDING ANY RESTRICTIONS
DURING SHRA. WINDS MAY GO NWLY BY 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.

ELSEWHERE...LARGELY AS AT KCLT THOUGH WITH GENERALLY MORE CERTAINTY
AS FAR AS SWLY WINDS THIS AFTN. MIDLEVEL CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF SHRA
INVOF THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOST LIKELY
ALLOWING VSBY TO REMAIN HIGH. WINDS FLIP TO NW AT KAVL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND A LITTLE LATER AT KHKY...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE SW QUADRANT ELSEWHERE THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERMOON AHEAD OF THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. RH VALUES
HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT BUT WITH OCCASIONAL LOW GUSTS. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
EXISTS HOWEVER DUE TO DRY FUELS. IN COORDINATION WITH GA LAND
MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
GA THRU 7 PM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291852
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FAST MOVING BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ALOFT BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...REINTRODUCING CLOUD COVER AND ALSO CREATING A WARM NOSE OF
SORTS THAT WILL CAP THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING COMES INTO PLAY AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
09-12Z...CONCURRENT WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LLVLS
AND WITH DEEP SATURATION. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY UNANIMOUS IN
BRINGING A BAND OF QPF ACRS THE AREA AS A RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT
AGAIN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS TO CONFIDENTLY FORECAST AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM NOSE AND THE INCUMBENT DRY AIR AT
THE SFC POSE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C
THROUGHOUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS UNTIL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE
WOULD SUGGEST NO NUCLEATION...AND FZRA RESULTING AT THE SFC IF THE
WET BULBS WERE TO COOL ENOUGH. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
PRECIP WILL NOT GET UNDERWAY UNTIL AFTER THE WET BULBS WARM ABOVE
0C. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS DO GET A SNOW OR RA/SN MENTION
AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ERODED THE WARM
NOSE AND AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXITS OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE
NC MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MRNG. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEE
TROUGH BOTH HAVING INFLUENCE...WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SWLY LATER THIS
AFTN AND REMAIN THERE THRU TONIGHT. FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA MON MRNG. PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY IN THE COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK BUT MAY LINGER INTO MIDDAY.
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED...BUT LLVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FROPA
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN MVFR CIG...NOTWITHSTANDING ANY RESTRICTIONS
DURING SHRA. WINDS MAY GO NWLY BY 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.

ELSEWHERE...LARGELY AS AT KCLT THOUGH WITH GENERALLY MORE CERTAINTY
AS FAR AS SWLY WINDS THIS AFTN. MIDLEVEL CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF SHRA
INVOF THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOST LIKELY
ALLOWING VSBY TO REMAIN HIGH. WINDS FLIP TO NW AT KAVL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND A LITTLE LATER AT KHKY...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE SW QUADRANT ELSEWHERE THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERMOON AHEAD OF THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. RH VALUES
HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT BUT WITH OCCASIONAL LOW GUSTS. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
EXISTS HOWEVER DUE TO DRY FUELS. IN COORDINATION WITH GA LAND
MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
GA THRU 7 PM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291852
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A FAST MOVING BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ALOFT BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...REINTRODUCING CLOUD COVER AND ALSO CREATING A WARM NOSE OF
SORTS THAT WILL CAP THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING COMES INTO PLAY AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
09-12Z...CONCURRENT WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LLVLS
AND WITH DEEP SATURATION. GUIDANCE IS VIRTUALLY UNANIMOUS IN
BRINGING A BAND OF QPF ACRS THE AREA AS A RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT
AGAIN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS TO CONFIDENTLY FORECAST AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM NOSE AND THE INCUMBENT DRY AIR AT
THE SFC POSE A SMALL CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0C
THROUGHOUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS UNTIL SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE
WOULD SUGGEST NO NUCLEATION...AND FZRA RESULTING AT THE SFC IF THE
WET BULBS WERE TO COOL ENOUGH. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
PRECIP WILL NOT GET UNDERWAY UNTIL AFTER THE WET BULBS WARM ABOVE
0C. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS DO GET A SNOW OR RA/SN MENTION
AROUND DAYBREAK...WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ERODED THE WARM
NOSE AND AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

PEAK FORCING APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12-14Z...AND
POPS SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL OFF AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THRU THE REST OF
THE MRNG. WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL PROLONG THE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
THE TENN BORDER...BUT BY MID AFTN ALL PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END. WINDS FLIPPING TO NWLY...AND THUS DOWNSLOPE...AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTN
MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST
THROUGH TUE. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME
FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON IS NOW
ACTIVE. AN HWO MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ADDED FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER NW
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO TUE AFTN.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENTER THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. WEAK
UPGLIDE MOISTURE MAY SET UP FROM THE SW ON WED...BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH QPF TO ALLOW ANY SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING TO GET
ESTABLISHED. ANY INSTABILITY WED AFTN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW
HALF IN THE BETTER DEWPOINT AIR...BUT NO THUNDER WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ANOTHER DEGREE ON TWO OVER TUE
VALUES...BUT THE NRN TIER COULD BE COOLER IF ANY CAD FORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN USA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXITS OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES TO THE CENTER OF
THE NATION...BUT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF STATES. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ROBUST
GULF INFLOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED...AND TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY REDUCE GULF INFLOW
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS IN THE
NC MOUNTAINS WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MRNG. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEE
TROUGH BOTH HAVING INFLUENCE...WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SWLY LATER THIS
AFTN AND REMAIN THERE THRU TONIGHT. FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA MON MRNG. PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY IN THE COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK BUT MAY LINGER INTO MIDDAY.
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED...BUT LLVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FROPA
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN MVFR CIG...NOTWITHSTANDING ANY RESTRICTIONS
DURING SHRA. WINDS MAY GO NWLY BY 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.

ELSEWHERE...LARGELY AS AT KCLT THOUGH WITH GENERALLY MORE CERTAINTY
AS FAR AS SWLY WINDS THIS AFTN. MIDLEVEL CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF SHRA
INVOF THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOST LIKELY
ALLOWING VSBY TO REMAIN HIGH. WINDS FLIP TO NW AT KAVL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND A LITTLE LATER AT KHKY...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE SW QUADRANT ELSEWHERE THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERMOON AHEAD OF THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. RH VALUES
HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT BUT WITH OCCASIONAL LOW GUSTS. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
EXISTS HOWEVER DUE TO DRY FUELS. IN COORDINATION WITH GA LAND
MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
GA THRU 7 PM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291802
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM...HAVE REVISED POPS/SKY/WIND THRU TONIGHT. FROPA STILL
ON TRACK FOR MON MRNG...WITH POPS PEAKING IN THE MTNS IN THE HRS
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND IN THE PIEDMONT AN HR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD.  AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP
OVER THE LOW COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AS IT DIGS OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BEFORE SLIDING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTING SFC FLOW TO VEER SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF WEAK WAA.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER STILL TOPPING OUT NEARLY A CAT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.  ADDITIONALLY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE CALMER TODAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AT THE REQUEST OF LAND MANAGERS...WITH
NO OTHER PRODUCTS PLANNED FOR NC/SC.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS
IN NATURE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SLIDES BY ALONG WITH MODEST LLJ POSSIBLY ENHANCING MOISTURE FLUX AND
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
LEVELS ALONG THE SPINE WITH LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER EAST
THROUGH PERIODS END.  QPF WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE CLIMO
FAVORED REGIONS OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH IS
POSSIBLE...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL DIURNALLY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS THAN NIGHTS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE MODELS STILL SUGGEST A RAPID FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD QUICKLY.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY E OF THE MTNS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC IS NOT GREAT AND
THE SYSTEM IS COMING IN FROM THE WNW. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE OVER
AND DONE WITH BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ROUGHLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGHS IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
REST OF THE SHORT RANGE IS RELATIVELY QUIET. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE A WEAK HIGH MOVE OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE SE COAST.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO ACTIVATE THE OLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. THINK THE EWD EXTENT OF THIS
IS OVERDONE/PREMATURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PREFER TO STICK CLOSER
TO THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...NOT SURE THAT CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED ALL THAT
MUCH OUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS IT SEEMS EACH NEW MODEL RUN BEARS
ONLY A VAGUE RESEMBLANCE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE
ACTIVATION OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. NOT SURE THE GFS IS NOT OVERDONE WITH THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT TO OUR S/SW...SO HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP CHANCES
LOW AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORS. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP WE HAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP A FOCUS NEAR THE S/SW UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM WAVE NEVER IMPRESSES MUCH AS IT PASSES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO THE PRECIP PROBABILITY WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE...WHICH IS HOPEFULLY NOT OVERDONE. PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT
PART OF THE FCST FOR THIS PART OF THE WEEK IS THE EASTERN UPPER TROF
LIFTING OUT AND THE REPLACEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE E
COAST...WHICH SHOULD SPELL A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR A
CHANGE. THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO
RAISE THE CHANCE EARLIER ON FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA WILL BE IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MEANS WE MIGHT SEE ENUF BUOYANCY TO
FEED SOME DEEPER CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
FURTHER EVALUATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MRNG. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEE
TROUGH BOTH HAVING INFLUENCE...WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SWLY LATER THIS
AFTN AND REMAIN THERE THRU TONIGHT. FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA MON MRNG. PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY IN THE COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK BUT MAY LINGER INTO MIDDAY.
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED...BUT LLVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FROPA
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN MVFR CIG...NOTWITHSTANDING ANY RESTRICTIONS
DURING SHRA. WINDS MAY GO NWLY BY 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.

ELSEWHERE...LARGELY AS AT KCLT THOUGH WITH GENERALLY MORE CERTAINTY
AS FAR AS SWLY WINDS THIS AFTN. MIDLEVEL CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF SHRA
INVOF THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOST LIKELY
ALLOWING VSBY TO REMAIN HIGH. WINDS FLIP TO NW AT KAVL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND A LITTLE LATER AT KHKY...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE SW QUADRANT ELSEWHERE THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM DIURNALLY
EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...HOWEVER...DRYING
FUELS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.  IN COORDINATION WITH GA
LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291802
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM...HAVE REVISED POPS/SKY/WIND THRU TONIGHT. FROPA STILL
ON TRACK FOR MON MRNG...WITH POPS PEAKING IN THE MTNS IN THE HRS
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND IN THE PIEDMONT AN HR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD.  AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP
OVER THE LOW COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AS IT DIGS OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BEFORE SLIDING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTING SFC FLOW TO VEER SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF WEAK WAA.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER STILL TOPPING OUT NEARLY A CAT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.  ADDITIONALLY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE CALMER TODAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AT THE REQUEST OF LAND MANAGERS...WITH
NO OTHER PRODUCTS PLANNED FOR NC/SC.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS
IN NATURE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SLIDES BY ALONG WITH MODEST LLJ POSSIBLY ENHANCING MOISTURE FLUX AND
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
LEVELS ALONG THE SPINE WITH LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER EAST
THROUGH PERIODS END.  QPF WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE CLIMO
FAVORED REGIONS OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH IS
POSSIBLE...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL DIURNALLY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS THAN NIGHTS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE MODELS STILL SUGGEST A RAPID FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD QUICKLY.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY E OF THE MTNS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC IS NOT GREAT AND
THE SYSTEM IS COMING IN FROM THE WNW. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE OVER
AND DONE WITH BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ROUGHLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGHS IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
REST OF THE SHORT RANGE IS RELATIVELY QUIET. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE A WEAK HIGH MOVE OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE SE COAST.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO ACTIVATE THE OLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. THINK THE EWD EXTENT OF THIS
IS OVERDONE/PREMATURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PREFER TO STICK CLOSER
TO THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...NOT SURE THAT CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED ALL THAT
MUCH OUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS IT SEEMS EACH NEW MODEL RUN BEARS
ONLY A VAGUE RESEMBLANCE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE
ACTIVATION OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. NOT SURE THE GFS IS NOT OVERDONE WITH THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT TO OUR S/SW...SO HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP CHANCES
LOW AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORS. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP WE HAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP A FOCUS NEAR THE S/SW UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM WAVE NEVER IMPRESSES MUCH AS IT PASSES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO THE PRECIP PROBABILITY WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE...WHICH IS HOPEFULLY NOT OVERDONE. PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT
PART OF THE FCST FOR THIS PART OF THE WEEK IS THE EASTERN UPPER TROF
LIFTING OUT AND THE REPLACEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE E
COAST...WHICH SHOULD SPELL A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR A
CHANGE. THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO
RAISE THE CHANCE EARLIER ON FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA WILL BE IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MEANS WE MIGHT SEE ENUF BUOYANCY TO
FEED SOME DEEPER CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
FURTHER EVALUATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MRNG. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEE
TROUGH BOTH HAVING INFLUENCE...WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SWLY LATER THIS
AFTN AND REMAIN THERE THRU TONIGHT. FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA MON MRNG. PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY IN THE COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK BUT MAY LINGER INTO MIDDAY.
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED...BUT LLVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FROPA
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN MVFR CIG...NOTWITHSTANDING ANY RESTRICTIONS
DURING SHRA. WINDS MAY GO NWLY BY 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.

ELSEWHERE...LARGELY AS AT KCLT THOUGH WITH GENERALLY MORE CERTAINTY
AS FAR AS SWLY WINDS THIS AFTN. MIDLEVEL CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF SHRA
INVOF THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOST LIKELY
ALLOWING VSBY TO REMAIN HIGH. WINDS FLIP TO NW AT KAVL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND A LITTLE LATER AT KHKY...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE SW QUADRANT ELSEWHERE THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM DIURNALLY
EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...HOWEVER...DRYING
FUELS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.  IN COORDINATION WITH GA
LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291802
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM...HAVE REVISED POPS/SKY/WIND THRU TONIGHT. FROPA STILL
ON TRACK FOR MON MRNG...WITH POPS PEAKING IN THE MTNS IN THE HRS
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND IN THE PIEDMONT AN HR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD.  AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP
OVER THE LOW COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AS IT DIGS OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BEFORE SLIDING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTING SFC FLOW TO VEER SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF WEAK WAA.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER STILL TOPPING OUT NEARLY A CAT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.  ADDITIONALLY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE CALMER TODAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AT THE REQUEST OF LAND MANAGERS...WITH
NO OTHER PRODUCTS PLANNED FOR NC/SC.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS
IN NATURE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SLIDES BY ALONG WITH MODEST LLJ POSSIBLY ENHANCING MOISTURE FLUX AND
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
LEVELS ALONG THE SPINE WITH LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER EAST
THROUGH PERIODS END.  QPF WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE CLIMO
FAVORED REGIONS OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH IS
POSSIBLE...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL DIURNALLY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS THAN NIGHTS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE MODELS STILL SUGGEST A RAPID FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD QUICKLY.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY E OF THE MTNS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC IS NOT GREAT AND
THE SYSTEM IS COMING IN FROM THE WNW. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE OVER
AND DONE WITH BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ROUGHLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGHS IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
REST OF THE SHORT RANGE IS RELATIVELY QUIET. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE A WEAK HIGH MOVE OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE SE COAST.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO ACTIVATE THE OLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. THINK THE EWD EXTENT OF THIS
IS OVERDONE/PREMATURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PREFER TO STICK CLOSER
TO THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...NOT SURE THAT CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED ALL THAT
MUCH OUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS IT SEEMS EACH NEW MODEL RUN BEARS
ONLY A VAGUE RESEMBLANCE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE
ACTIVATION OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. NOT SURE THE GFS IS NOT OVERDONE WITH THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT TO OUR S/SW...SO HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP CHANCES
LOW AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORS. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP WE HAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP A FOCUS NEAR THE S/SW UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM WAVE NEVER IMPRESSES MUCH AS IT PASSES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO THE PRECIP PROBABILITY WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE...WHICH IS HOPEFULLY NOT OVERDONE. PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT
PART OF THE FCST FOR THIS PART OF THE WEEK IS THE EASTERN UPPER TROF
LIFTING OUT AND THE REPLACEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE E
COAST...WHICH SHOULD SPELL A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR A
CHANGE. THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO
RAISE THE CHANCE EARLIER ON FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA WILL BE IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MEANS WE MIGHT SEE ENUF BUOYANCY TO
FEED SOME DEEPER CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
FURTHER EVALUATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MRNG. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEE
TROUGH BOTH HAVING INFLUENCE...WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SWLY LATER THIS
AFTN AND REMAIN THERE THRU TONIGHT. FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA MON MRNG. PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY IN THE COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK BUT MAY LINGER INTO MIDDAY.
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED...BUT LLVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FROPA
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN MVFR CIG...NOTWITHSTANDING ANY RESTRICTIONS
DURING SHRA. WINDS MAY GO NWLY BY 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.

ELSEWHERE...LARGELY AS AT KCLT THOUGH WITH GENERALLY MORE CERTAINTY
AS FAR AS SWLY WINDS THIS AFTN. MIDLEVEL CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF SHRA
INVOF THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOST LIKELY
ALLOWING VSBY TO REMAIN HIGH. WINDS FLIP TO NW AT KAVL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND A LITTLE LATER AT KHKY...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE SW QUADRANT ELSEWHERE THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM DIURNALLY
EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...HOWEVER...DRYING
FUELS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.  IN COORDINATION WITH GA
LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291802
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM...HAVE REVISED POPS/SKY/WIND THRU TONIGHT. FROPA STILL
ON TRACK FOR MON MRNG...WITH POPS PEAKING IN THE MTNS IN THE HRS
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND IN THE PIEDMONT AN HR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD.  AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP
OVER THE LOW COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AS IT DIGS OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BEFORE SLIDING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTING SFC FLOW TO VEER SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF WEAK WAA.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER STILL TOPPING OUT NEARLY A CAT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.  ADDITIONALLY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE CALMER TODAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AT THE REQUEST OF LAND MANAGERS...WITH
NO OTHER PRODUCTS PLANNED FOR NC/SC.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS
IN NATURE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SLIDES BY ALONG WITH MODEST LLJ POSSIBLY ENHANCING MOISTURE FLUX AND
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
LEVELS ALONG THE SPINE WITH LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER EAST
THROUGH PERIODS END.  QPF WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE CLIMO
FAVORED REGIONS OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH IS
POSSIBLE...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL DIURNALLY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS THAN NIGHTS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE MODELS STILL SUGGEST A RAPID FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD QUICKLY.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY E OF THE MTNS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC IS NOT GREAT AND
THE SYSTEM IS COMING IN FROM THE WNW. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE OVER
AND DONE WITH BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ROUGHLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGHS IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
REST OF THE SHORT RANGE IS RELATIVELY QUIET. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE A WEAK HIGH MOVE OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE SE COAST.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO ACTIVATE THE OLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. THINK THE EWD EXTENT OF THIS
IS OVERDONE/PREMATURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PREFER TO STICK CLOSER
TO THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...NOT SURE THAT CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED ALL THAT
MUCH OUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS IT SEEMS EACH NEW MODEL RUN BEARS
ONLY A VAGUE RESEMBLANCE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE
ACTIVATION OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. NOT SURE THE GFS IS NOT OVERDONE WITH THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT TO OUR S/SW...SO HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP CHANCES
LOW AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORS. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP WE HAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP A FOCUS NEAR THE S/SW UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM WAVE NEVER IMPRESSES MUCH AS IT PASSES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO THE PRECIP PROBABILITY WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE...WHICH IS HOPEFULLY NOT OVERDONE. PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT
PART OF THE FCST FOR THIS PART OF THE WEEK IS THE EASTERN UPPER TROF
LIFTING OUT AND THE REPLACEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE E
COAST...WHICH SHOULD SPELL A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR A
CHANGE. THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO
RAISE THE CHANCE EARLIER ON FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA WILL BE IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MEANS WE MIGHT SEE ENUF BUOYANCY TO
FEED SOME DEEPER CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
FURTHER EVALUATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MRNG. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEE
TROUGH BOTH HAVING INFLUENCE...WINDS EARLY THIS AFTN WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SWLY LATER THIS
AFTN AND REMAIN THERE THRU TONIGHT. FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA MON MRNG. PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY IN THE COUPLE HRS AFTER DAYBREAK BUT MAY LINGER INTO MIDDAY.
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED...BUT LLVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FROPA
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN MVFR CIG...NOTWITHSTANDING ANY RESTRICTIONS
DURING SHRA. WINDS MAY GO NWLY BY 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.

ELSEWHERE...LARGELY AS AT KCLT THOUGH WITH GENERALLY MORE CERTAINTY
AS FAR AS SWLY WINDS THIS AFTN. MIDLEVEL CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF SHRA
INVOF THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOST LIKELY
ALLOWING VSBY TO REMAIN HIGH. WINDS FLIP TO NW AT KAVL AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND A LITTLE LATER AT KHKY...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE SW QUADRANT ELSEWHERE THRU 18Z.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WED...PERHAPS WITH A FEW
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE MTNS. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM DIURNALLY
EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...HOWEVER...DRYING
FUELS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.  IN COORDINATION WITH GA
LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291458
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1058 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PASS OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...AIRPORT AND MESONET OBS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE
ZONES IN THE FREEZE WARNING HAVE ALREADY RISEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE IN THE SW NC MTNS...BUT EVEN THERE
THE SUBFREEZING OBS ARE MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. VIRTUALLY NO
CLOUD COVER IS SEEN ON SATELLITE...SO SUNSHINE HAS LIKELY WARMED
SURFACES AND PLANTS IN THOSE AREAS. I WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
FREEZE WARNING HALF AN HOUR EARLY.

THOUGH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS MOSTLY ON TRACK...I REVISED TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS. 10 AM DEWPT OBS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN
THE FORECAST...AND THOUGH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE WILL
BEGIN TO MIX OUT SOON...SAME GUIDANCE APPARENTLY REFLECTS JUST
ENOUGH ADVECTION TO KEEP THEM FROM DECLINING THAT MUCH. IT DOES
STILL LOOK LIKE RH VALUES WILL BECOME CRITICALLY LOW ACRS MOST OF
THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD.  AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP
OVER THE LOW COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AS IT DIGS OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BEFORE SLIDING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTING SFC FLOW TO VEER SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF WEAK WAA.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER STILL TOPPING OUT NEARLY A CAT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.  ADDITIONALLY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE CALMER TODAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AT THE REQUEST OF LAND MANAGERS...WITH
NO OTHER PRODUCTS PLANNED FOR NC/SC.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS
IN NATURE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SLIDES BY ALONG WITH MODEST LLJ POSSIBLY ENHANCING MOISTURE FLUX AND
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
LEVELS ALONG THE SPINE WITH LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER EAST
THROUGH PERIODS END.  QPF WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE CLIMO
FAVORED REGIONS OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH IS
POSSIBLE...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL DIURNALLY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS THAN NIGHTS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE MODELS STILL SUGGEST A RAPID FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD QUICKLY.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY E OF THE MTNS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC IS NOT GREAT AND
THE SYSTEM IS COMING IN FROM THE WNW. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE OVER
AND DONE WITH BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ROUGHLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGHS IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
REST OF THE SHORT RANGE IS RELATIVELY QUIET. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE A WEAK HIGH MOVE OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE SE COAST.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO ACTIVATE THE OLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. THINK THE EWD EXTENT OF THIS
IS OVERDONE/PREMATURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PREFER TO STICK CLOSER
TO THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...NOT SURE THAT CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED ALL THAT
MUCH OUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS IT SEEMS EACH NEW MODEL RUN BEARS
ONLY A VAGUE RESEMBLANCE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE
ACTIVATION OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. NOT SURE THE GFS IS NOT OVERDONE WITH THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT TO OUR S/SW...SO HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP CHANCES
LOW AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORS. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP WE HAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP A FOCUS NEAR THE S/SW UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM WAVE NEVER IMPRESSES MUCH AS IT PASSES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO THE PRECIP PROBABILITY WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE...WHICH IS HOPEFULLY NOT OVERDONE. PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT
PART OF THE FCST FOR THIS PART OF THE WEEK IS THE EASTERN UPPER TROF
LIFTING OUT AND THE REPLACEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE E
COAST...WHICH SHOULD SPELL A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR A
CHANGE. THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO
RAISE THE CHANCE EARLIER ON FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA WILL BE IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MEANS WE MIGHT SEE ENUF BUOYANCY TO
FEED SOME DEEPER CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
FURTHER EVALUATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD WITH MOST SITES HAVING A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OF FLOW NLT THAN 15Z-16Z.  STILL FCSTING SKC TO PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES THROUGH THE MIDDAY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ADVECTS
DOWNSTREAM FROM FRONTAL AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.  BEYOND
THIS EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AMIDST CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY 06-08KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL INTRUSION.
AS FOR PRECIP...ADDED PROB30S TO ALL TAFS AFTER THE 09Z-10Z
TIMEFRAME MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR -SHRA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AT KAVL
WHERE -SHRA WAS PREVAILED.  MODELS WERE HINTING AT FURTHER
DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE...THUS
NOTHING WAS INCLUDED THIS GO AROUND.

OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FROPA
ON MONDAY AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM DIURNALLY
EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...HOWEVER...DRYING
FUELS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.  IN COORDINATION WITH GA
LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...PM
CLIMATE...PM





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291458
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1058 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PASS OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...AIRPORT AND MESONET OBS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE
ZONES IN THE FREEZE WARNING HAVE ALREADY RISEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE IN THE SW NC MTNS...BUT EVEN THERE
THE SUBFREEZING OBS ARE MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. VIRTUALLY NO
CLOUD COVER IS SEEN ON SATELLITE...SO SUNSHINE HAS LIKELY WARMED
SURFACES AND PLANTS IN THOSE AREAS. I WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
FREEZE WARNING HALF AN HOUR EARLY.

THOUGH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS MOSTLY ON TRACK...I REVISED TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS. 10 AM DEWPT OBS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN
THE FORECAST...AND THOUGH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE WILL
BEGIN TO MIX OUT SOON...SAME GUIDANCE APPARENTLY REFLECTS JUST
ENOUGH ADVECTION TO KEEP THEM FROM DECLINING THAT MUCH. IT DOES
STILL LOOK LIKE RH VALUES WILL BECOME CRITICALLY LOW ACRS MOST OF
THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD.  AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP
OVER THE LOW COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AS IT DIGS OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BEFORE SLIDING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTING SFC FLOW TO VEER SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF WEAK WAA.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER STILL TOPPING OUT NEARLY A CAT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.  ADDITIONALLY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE CALMER TODAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AT THE REQUEST OF LAND MANAGERS...WITH
NO OTHER PRODUCTS PLANNED FOR NC/SC.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS
IN NATURE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SLIDES BY ALONG WITH MODEST LLJ POSSIBLY ENHANCING MOISTURE FLUX AND
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
LEVELS ALONG THE SPINE WITH LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER EAST
THROUGH PERIODS END.  QPF WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE CLIMO
FAVORED REGIONS OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH IS
POSSIBLE...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL DIURNALLY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS THAN NIGHTS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE MODELS STILL SUGGEST A RAPID FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD QUICKLY.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY E OF THE MTNS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC IS NOT GREAT AND
THE SYSTEM IS COMING IN FROM THE WNW. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE OVER
AND DONE WITH BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ROUGHLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGHS IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
REST OF THE SHORT RANGE IS RELATIVELY QUIET. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE A WEAK HIGH MOVE OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE SE COAST.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO ACTIVATE THE OLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. THINK THE EWD EXTENT OF THIS
IS OVERDONE/PREMATURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PREFER TO STICK CLOSER
TO THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...NOT SURE THAT CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED ALL THAT
MUCH OUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS IT SEEMS EACH NEW MODEL RUN BEARS
ONLY A VAGUE RESEMBLANCE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE
ACTIVATION OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. NOT SURE THE GFS IS NOT OVERDONE WITH THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT TO OUR S/SW...SO HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP CHANCES
LOW AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORS. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP WE HAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP A FOCUS NEAR THE S/SW UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM WAVE NEVER IMPRESSES MUCH AS IT PASSES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO THE PRECIP PROBABILITY WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE...WHICH IS HOPEFULLY NOT OVERDONE. PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT
PART OF THE FCST FOR THIS PART OF THE WEEK IS THE EASTERN UPPER TROF
LIFTING OUT AND THE REPLACEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE E
COAST...WHICH SHOULD SPELL A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR A
CHANGE. THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO
RAISE THE CHANCE EARLIER ON FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA WILL BE IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MEANS WE MIGHT SEE ENUF BUOYANCY TO
FEED SOME DEEPER CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
FURTHER EVALUATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD WITH MOST SITES HAVING A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OF FLOW NLT THAN 15Z-16Z.  STILL FCSTING SKC TO PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES THROUGH THE MIDDAY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ADVECTS
DOWNSTREAM FROM FRONTAL AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.  BEYOND
THIS EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AMIDST CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY 06-08KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL INTRUSION.
AS FOR PRECIP...ADDED PROB30S TO ALL TAFS AFTER THE 09Z-10Z
TIMEFRAME MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR -SHRA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AT KAVL
WHERE -SHRA WAS PREVAILED.  MODELS WERE HINTING AT FURTHER
DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE...THUS
NOTHING WAS INCLUDED THIS GO AROUND.

OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FROPA
ON MONDAY AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM DIURNALLY
EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...HOWEVER...DRYING
FUELS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.  IN COORDINATION WITH GA
LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...PM
CLIMATE...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291458
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1058 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PASS OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...AIRPORT AND MESONET OBS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE
ZONES IN THE FREEZE WARNING HAVE ALREADY RISEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE IN THE SW NC MTNS...BUT EVEN THERE
THE SUBFREEZING OBS ARE MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. VIRTUALLY NO
CLOUD COVER IS SEEN ON SATELLITE...SO SUNSHINE HAS LIKELY WARMED
SURFACES AND PLANTS IN THOSE AREAS. I WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
FREEZE WARNING HALF AN HOUR EARLY.

THOUGH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS MOSTLY ON TRACK...I REVISED TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS. 10 AM DEWPT OBS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN
THE FORECAST...AND THOUGH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE WILL
BEGIN TO MIX OUT SOON...SAME GUIDANCE APPARENTLY REFLECTS JUST
ENOUGH ADVECTION TO KEEP THEM FROM DECLINING THAT MUCH. IT DOES
STILL LOOK LIKE RH VALUES WILL BECOME CRITICALLY LOW ACRS MOST OF
THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD.  AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP
OVER THE LOW COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AS IT DIGS OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BEFORE SLIDING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTING SFC FLOW TO VEER SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF WEAK WAA.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER STILL TOPPING OUT NEARLY A CAT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.  ADDITIONALLY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE CALMER TODAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AT THE REQUEST OF LAND MANAGERS...WITH
NO OTHER PRODUCTS PLANNED FOR NC/SC.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS
IN NATURE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SLIDES BY ALONG WITH MODEST LLJ POSSIBLY ENHANCING MOISTURE FLUX AND
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
LEVELS ALONG THE SPINE WITH LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER EAST
THROUGH PERIODS END.  QPF WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE CLIMO
FAVORED REGIONS OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH IS
POSSIBLE...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL DIURNALLY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS THAN NIGHTS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE MODELS STILL SUGGEST A RAPID FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD QUICKLY.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY E OF THE MTNS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC IS NOT GREAT AND
THE SYSTEM IS COMING IN FROM THE WNW. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE OVER
AND DONE WITH BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ROUGHLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGHS IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
REST OF THE SHORT RANGE IS RELATIVELY QUIET. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE A WEAK HIGH MOVE OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE SE COAST.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO ACTIVATE THE OLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. THINK THE EWD EXTENT OF THIS
IS OVERDONE/PREMATURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PREFER TO STICK CLOSER
TO THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...NOT SURE THAT CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED ALL THAT
MUCH OUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS IT SEEMS EACH NEW MODEL RUN BEARS
ONLY A VAGUE RESEMBLANCE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE
ACTIVATION OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. NOT SURE THE GFS IS NOT OVERDONE WITH THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT TO OUR S/SW...SO HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP CHANCES
LOW AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORS. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP WE HAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP A FOCUS NEAR THE S/SW UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM WAVE NEVER IMPRESSES MUCH AS IT PASSES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO THE PRECIP PROBABILITY WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE...WHICH IS HOPEFULLY NOT OVERDONE. PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT
PART OF THE FCST FOR THIS PART OF THE WEEK IS THE EASTERN UPPER TROF
LIFTING OUT AND THE REPLACEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE E
COAST...WHICH SHOULD SPELL A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR A
CHANGE. THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO
RAISE THE CHANCE EARLIER ON FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA WILL BE IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MEANS WE MIGHT SEE ENUF BUOYANCY TO
FEED SOME DEEPER CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
FURTHER EVALUATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD WITH MOST SITES HAVING A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OF FLOW NLT THAN 15Z-16Z.  STILL FCSTING SKC TO PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES THROUGH THE MIDDAY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ADVECTS
DOWNSTREAM FROM FRONTAL AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.  BEYOND
THIS EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AMIDST CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY 06-08KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL INTRUSION.
AS FOR PRECIP...ADDED PROB30S TO ALL TAFS AFTER THE 09Z-10Z
TIMEFRAME MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR -SHRA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AT KAVL
WHERE -SHRA WAS PREVAILED.  MODELS WERE HINTING AT FURTHER
DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE...THUS
NOTHING WAS INCLUDED THIS GO AROUND.

OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FROPA
ON MONDAY AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM DIURNALLY
EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...HOWEVER...DRYING
FUELS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.  IN COORDINATION WITH GA
LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...PM
CLIMATE...PM




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291039
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PASS OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM EDT SUNDAY...TOUCHED UP WORDING IN BOTH THE CURRENT
FREEZE PRODUCTS ALONG WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
NORTHEAST GA.  SPEAKING OF FREEZE...A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN RATHER
STUBBORN TO DECOUPLE LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LESS RADIATIONAL COOLING
THAN EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...IT NOW SEEMS ALL SITES HAVE DECOUPLED WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS IN THE FCST AREA AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS.  AS FOR ANY RECORDS....SEEMS GSP/CLT WOULD HAVE
THE BEST SHOT TO BREAK/TIE ANY RECORDS...HOWEVER LOOKING MORE
UNLIKELY AS ABOVE MENTIONED DELAYED DECOUPLING HAS AFFECTED MORNING
TEMPERATURES TRENDS.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THAT EITHER SITE
WILL FALL THE NEEDED 3-5 DEGREES FROM CURRENT OBS BEFORE WARMING
BEGINS.  AS FOR THE FCST...TWEAKED TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS
AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD.  AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP
OVER THE LOW COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AS IT DIGS OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BEFORE SLIDING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTING SFC FLOW TO VEER SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF WEAK WAA.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER STILL TOPPING OUT NEARLY A CAT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.  ADDITIONALLY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE CALMER TODAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AT THE REQUEST OF LAND MANAGERS...WITH
NO OTHER PRODUCTS PLANNED FOR NC/SC.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS
IN NATURE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SLIDES BY ALONG WITH MODEST LLJ POSSIBLY ENHANCING MOISTURE FLUX AND
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
LEVELS ALONG THE SPINE WITH LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER EAST
THROUGH PERIODS END.  QPF WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE CLIMO
FAVORED REGIONS OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH IS
POSSIBLE...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL DIURNALLY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS THAN NIGHTS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE MODELS STILL SUGGEST A RAPID FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD QUICKLY.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY E OF THE MTNS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC IS NOT GREAT AND
THE SYSTEM IS COMING IN FROM THE WNW. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE OVER
AND DONE WITH BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ROUGHLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGHS IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
REST OF THE SHORT RANGE IS RELATIVELY QUIET. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE A WEAK HIGH MOVE OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE SE COAST.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO ACTIVATE THE OLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. THINK THE EWD EXTENT OF THIS
IS OVERDONE/PREMATURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PREFER TO STICK CLOSER
TO THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...NOT SURE THAT CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED ALL THAT
MUCH OUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS IT SEEMS EACH NEW MODEL RUN BEARS
ONLY A VAGUE RESEMBLANCE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE
ACTIVATION OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. NOT SURE THE GFS IS NOT OVERDONE WITH THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT TO OUR S/SW...SO HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP CHANCES
LOW AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORS. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP WE HAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP A FOCUS NEAR THE S/SW UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM WAVE NEVER IMPRESSES MUCH AS IT PASSES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO THE PRECIP PROBABILITY WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE...WHICH IS HOPEFULLY NOT OVERDONE. PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT
PART OF THE FCST FOR THIS PART OF THE WEEK IS THE EASTERN UPPER TROF
LIFTING OUT AND THE REPLACEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE E
COAST...WHICH SHOULD SPELL A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR A
CHANGE. THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO
RAISE THE CHANCE EARLIER ON FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA WILL BE IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MEANS WE MIGHT SEE ENUF BUOYANCY TO
FEED SOME DEEPER CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
FURTHER EVALUATED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD WITH MOST SITES HAVING A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OF FLOW NLT THAN 15Z-16Z.  STILL FCSTING SKC TO PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES THROUGH THE MIDDAY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ADVECTS
DOWNSTREAM FROM FRONTAL AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.  BEYOND
THIS EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AMIDST CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY 06-08KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL INTRUSION.
AS FOR PRECIP...ADDED PROB30S TO ALL TAFS AFTER THE 09Z-10Z
TIMEFRAME MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR -SHRA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AT KAVL
WHERE -SHRA WAS PREVAILED.  MODELS WERE HINTING AT FURTHER
DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE...THUS
NOTHING WAS INCLUDED THIS GO AROUND.

OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FROPA
ON MONDAY AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM DIURNALLY
EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...HOWEVER...DRYING
FUELS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.  IN COORDINATION WITH GA
LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291039
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PASS OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM EDT SUNDAY...TOUCHED UP WORDING IN BOTH THE CURRENT
FREEZE PRODUCTS ALONG WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
NORTHEAST GA.  SPEAKING OF FREEZE...A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN RATHER
STUBBORN TO DECOUPLE LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LESS RADIATIONAL COOLING
THAN EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...IT NOW SEEMS ALL SITES HAVE DECOUPLED WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS IN THE FCST AREA AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS.  AS FOR ANY RECORDS....SEEMS GSP/CLT WOULD HAVE
THE BEST SHOT TO BREAK/TIE ANY RECORDS...HOWEVER LOOKING MORE
UNLIKELY AS ABOVE MENTIONED DELAYED DECOUPLING HAS AFFECTED MORNING
TEMPERATURES TRENDS.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THAT EITHER SITE
WILL FALL THE NEEDED 3-5 DEGREES FROM CURRENT OBS BEFORE WARMING
BEGINS.  AS FOR THE FCST...TWEAKED TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS
AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD.  AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP
OVER THE LOW COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AS IT DIGS OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BEFORE SLIDING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTING SFC FLOW TO VEER SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF WEAK WAA.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER STILL TOPPING OUT NEARLY A CAT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.  ADDITIONALLY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE CALMER TODAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AT THE REQUEST OF LAND MANAGERS...WITH
NO OTHER PRODUCTS PLANNED FOR NC/SC.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS
IN NATURE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SLIDES BY ALONG WITH MODEST LLJ POSSIBLY ENHANCING MOISTURE FLUX AND
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
LEVELS ALONG THE SPINE WITH LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER EAST
THROUGH PERIODS END.  QPF WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE CLIMO
FAVORED REGIONS OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH IS
POSSIBLE...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL DIURNALLY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS THAN NIGHTS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE MODELS STILL SUGGEST A RAPID FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD QUICKLY.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY E OF THE MTNS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC IS NOT GREAT AND
THE SYSTEM IS COMING IN FROM THE WNW. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE OVER
AND DONE WITH BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ROUGHLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGHS IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
REST OF THE SHORT RANGE IS RELATIVELY QUIET. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE A WEAK HIGH MOVE OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE SE COAST.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO ACTIVATE THE OLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. THINK THE EWD EXTENT OF THIS
IS OVERDONE/PREMATURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PREFER TO STICK CLOSER
TO THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...NOT SURE THAT CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED ALL THAT
MUCH OUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS IT SEEMS EACH NEW MODEL RUN BEARS
ONLY A VAGUE RESEMBLANCE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE
ACTIVATION OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. NOT SURE THE GFS IS NOT OVERDONE WITH THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT TO OUR S/SW...SO HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP CHANCES
LOW AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORS. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP WE HAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP A FOCUS NEAR THE S/SW UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM WAVE NEVER IMPRESSES MUCH AS IT PASSES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO THE PRECIP PROBABILITY WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE...WHICH IS HOPEFULLY NOT OVERDONE. PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT
PART OF THE FCST FOR THIS PART OF THE WEEK IS THE EASTERN UPPER TROF
LIFTING OUT AND THE REPLACEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE E
COAST...WHICH SHOULD SPELL A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR A
CHANGE. THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO
RAISE THE CHANCE EARLIER ON FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA WILL BE IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MEANS WE MIGHT SEE ENUF BUOYANCY TO
FEED SOME DEEPER CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
FURTHER EVALUATED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD WITH MOST SITES HAVING A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OF FLOW NLT THAN 15Z-16Z.  STILL FCSTING SKC TO PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES THROUGH THE MIDDAY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ADVECTS
DOWNSTREAM FROM FRONTAL AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.  BEYOND
THIS EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AMIDST CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY 06-08KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL INTRUSION.
AS FOR PRECIP...ADDED PROB30S TO ALL TAFS AFTER THE 09Z-10Z
TIMEFRAME MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR -SHRA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AT KAVL
WHERE -SHRA WAS PREVAILED.  MODELS WERE HINTING AT FURTHER
DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE...THUS
NOTHING WAS INCLUDED THIS GO AROUND.

OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FROPA
ON MONDAY AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM DIURNALLY
EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...HOWEVER...DRYING
FUELS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.  IN COORDINATION WITH GA
LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291039
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PASS OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM EDT SUNDAY...TOUCHED UP WORDING IN BOTH THE CURRENT
FREEZE PRODUCTS ALONG WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
NORTHEAST GA.  SPEAKING OF FREEZE...A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN RATHER
STUBBORN TO DECOUPLE LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LESS RADIATIONAL COOLING
THAN EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...IT NOW SEEMS ALL SITES HAVE DECOUPLED WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS IN THE FCST AREA AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS.  AS FOR ANY RECORDS....SEEMS GSP/CLT WOULD HAVE
THE BEST SHOT TO BREAK/TIE ANY RECORDS...HOWEVER LOOKING MORE
UNLIKELY AS ABOVE MENTIONED DELAYED DECOUPLING HAS AFFECTED MORNING
TEMPERATURES TRENDS.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THAT EITHER SITE
WILL FALL THE NEEDED 3-5 DEGREES FROM CURRENT OBS BEFORE WARMING
BEGINS.  AS FOR THE FCST...TWEAKED TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS
AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD.  AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP
OVER THE LOW COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AS IT DIGS OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BEFORE SLIDING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTING SFC FLOW TO VEER SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF WEAK WAA.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER STILL TOPPING OUT NEARLY A CAT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.  ADDITIONALLY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE CALMER TODAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AT THE REQUEST OF LAND MANAGERS...WITH
NO OTHER PRODUCTS PLANNED FOR NC/SC.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS
IN NATURE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SLIDES BY ALONG WITH MODEST LLJ POSSIBLY ENHANCING MOISTURE FLUX AND
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
LEVELS ALONG THE SPINE WITH LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER EAST
THROUGH PERIODS END.  QPF WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE CLIMO
FAVORED REGIONS OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH IS
POSSIBLE...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL DIURNALLY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS THAN NIGHTS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE MODELS STILL SUGGEST A RAPID FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD QUICKLY.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY E OF THE MTNS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC IS NOT GREAT AND
THE SYSTEM IS COMING IN FROM THE WNW. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE OVER
AND DONE WITH BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ROUGHLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGHS IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
REST OF THE SHORT RANGE IS RELATIVELY QUIET. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE A WEAK HIGH MOVE OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE SE COAST.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO ACTIVATE THE OLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. THINK THE EWD EXTENT OF THIS
IS OVERDONE/PREMATURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PREFER TO STICK CLOSER
TO THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...NOT SURE THAT CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED ALL THAT
MUCH OUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS IT SEEMS EACH NEW MODEL RUN BEARS
ONLY A VAGUE RESEMBLANCE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE
ACTIVATION OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. NOT SURE THE GFS IS NOT OVERDONE WITH THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT TO OUR S/SW...SO HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP CHANCES
LOW AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORS. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP WE HAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP A FOCUS NEAR THE S/SW UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM WAVE NEVER IMPRESSES MUCH AS IT PASSES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO THE PRECIP PROBABILITY WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE...WHICH IS HOPEFULLY NOT OVERDONE. PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT
PART OF THE FCST FOR THIS PART OF THE WEEK IS THE EASTERN UPPER TROF
LIFTING OUT AND THE REPLACEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE E
COAST...WHICH SHOULD SPELL A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR A
CHANGE. THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO
RAISE THE CHANCE EARLIER ON FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA WILL BE IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MEANS WE MIGHT SEE ENUF BUOYANCY TO
FEED SOME DEEPER CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
FURTHER EVALUATED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD WITH MOST SITES HAVING A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OF FLOW NLT THAN 15Z-16Z.  STILL FCSTING SKC TO PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES THROUGH THE MIDDAY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ADVECTS
DOWNSTREAM FROM FRONTAL AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.  BEYOND
THIS EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AMIDST CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY 06-08KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL INTRUSION.
AS FOR PRECIP...ADDED PROB30S TO ALL TAFS AFTER THE 09Z-10Z
TIMEFRAME MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR -SHRA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AT KAVL
WHERE -SHRA WAS PREVAILED.  MODELS WERE HINTING AT FURTHER
DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE...THUS
NOTHING WAS INCLUDED THIS GO AROUND.

OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FROPA
ON MONDAY AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM DIURNALLY
EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...HOWEVER...DRYING
FUELS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.  IN COORDINATION WITH GA
LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291039
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PASS OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 620 AM EDT SUNDAY...TOUCHED UP WORDING IN BOTH THE CURRENT
FREEZE PRODUCTS ALONG WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
NORTHEAST GA.  SPEAKING OF FREEZE...A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN RATHER
STUBBORN TO DECOUPLE LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LESS RADIATIONAL COOLING
THAN EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...IT NOW SEEMS ALL SITES HAVE DECOUPLED WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS IN THE FCST AREA AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS.  AS FOR ANY RECORDS....SEEMS GSP/CLT WOULD HAVE
THE BEST SHOT TO BREAK/TIE ANY RECORDS...HOWEVER LOOKING MORE
UNLIKELY AS ABOVE MENTIONED DELAYED DECOUPLING HAS AFFECTED MORNING
TEMPERATURES TRENDS.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THAT EITHER SITE
WILL FALL THE NEEDED 3-5 DEGREES FROM CURRENT OBS BEFORE WARMING
BEGINS.  AS FOR THE FCST...TWEAKED TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS
AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD.  AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP
OVER THE LOW COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AS IT DIGS OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BEFORE SLIDING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTING SFC FLOW TO VEER SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF WEAK WAA.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER STILL TOPPING OUT NEARLY A CAT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.  ADDITIONALLY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE CALMER TODAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AT THE REQUEST OF LAND MANAGERS...WITH
NO OTHER PRODUCTS PLANNED FOR NC/SC.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS
IN NATURE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SLIDES BY ALONG WITH MODEST LLJ POSSIBLY ENHANCING MOISTURE FLUX AND
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
LEVELS ALONG THE SPINE WITH LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER EAST
THROUGH PERIODS END.  QPF WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE CLIMO
FAVORED REGIONS OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH IS
POSSIBLE...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL DIURNALLY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS THAN NIGHTS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE MODELS STILL SUGGEST A RAPID FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD QUICKLY.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY E OF THE MTNS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC IS NOT GREAT AND
THE SYSTEM IS COMING IN FROM THE WNW. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE OVER
AND DONE WITH BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ROUGHLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGHS IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
REST OF THE SHORT RANGE IS RELATIVELY QUIET. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE A WEAK HIGH MOVE OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE SE COAST.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO ACTIVATE THE OLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. THINK THE EWD EXTENT OF THIS
IS OVERDONE/PREMATURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PREFER TO STICK CLOSER
TO THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...NOT SURE THAT CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED ALL THAT
MUCH OUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS IT SEEMS EACH NEW MODEL RUN BEARS
ONLY A VAGUE RESEMBLANCE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE
ACTIVATION OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. NOT SURE THE GFS IS NOT OVERDONE WITH THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT TO OUR S/SW...SO HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP CHANCES
LOW AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORS. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP WE HAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP A FOCUS NEAR THE S/SW UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM WAVE NEVER IMPRESSES MUCH AS IT PASSES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO THE PRECIP PROBABILITY WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE...WHICH IS HOPEFULLY NOT OVERDONE. PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT
PART OF THE FCST FOR THIS PART OF THE WEEK IS THE EASTERN UPPER TROF
LIFTING OUT AND THE REPLACEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE E
COAST...WHICH SHOULD SPELL A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR A
CHANGE. THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO
RAISE THE CHANCE EARLIER ON FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA WILL BE IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MEANS WE MIGHT SEE ENUF BUOYANCY TO
FEED SOME DEEPER CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
FURTHER EVALUATED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD WITH MOST SITES HAVING A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OF FLOW NLT THAN 15Z-16Z.  STILL FCSTING SKC TO PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES THROUGH THE MIDDAY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ADVECTS
DOWNSTREAM FROM FRONTAL AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.  BEYOND
THIS EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AMIDST CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY 06-08KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL INTRUSION.
AS FOR PRECIP...ADDED PROB30S TO ALL TAFS AFTER THE 09Z-10Z
TIMEFRAME MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR -SHRA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AT KAVL
WHERE -SHRA WAS PREVAILED.  MODELS WERE HINTING AT FURTHER
DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE...THUS
NOTHING WAS INCLUDED THIS GO AROUND.

OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FROPA
ON MONDAY AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM DIURNALLY
EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...HOWEVER...DRYING
FUELS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.  IN COORDINATION WITH GA
LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS62 KGSP 290735
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PASS OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD.  AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP
OVER THE LOW COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AS IT DIGS OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BEFORE SLIDING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTING SFC FLOW TO VEER SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF WEAK WAA.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER STILL TOPPING OUT NEARLY A CAT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.  ADDITIONALLY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE CALMER TODAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AT THE REQUEST OF LAND MANAGERS...WITH
NO OTHER PRODUCTS PLANNED FOR NC/SC.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS
IN NATURE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SLIDES BY ALONG WITH MODEST LLJ POSSIBLY ENHANCING MOISTURE FLUX AND
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
LEVELS ALONG THE SPINE WITH LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER EAST
THROUGH PERIODS END.  QPF WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE CLIMO
FAVORED REGIONS OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH IS
POSSIBLE...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL DIURNALLY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS THAN NIGHTS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE MODELS STILL SUGGEST A RAPID FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD QUICKLY.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY E OF THE MTNS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC IS NOT GREAT AND
THE SYSTEM IS COMING IN FROM THE WNW. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE OVER
AND DONE WITH BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ROUGHLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGHS IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
REST OF THE SHORT RANGE IS RELATIVELY QUIET. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE A WEAK HIGH MOVE OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE SE COAST.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO ACTIVATE THE OLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. THINK THE EWD EXTENT OF THIS
IS OVERDONE/PREMATURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PREFER TO STICK CLOSER
TO THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...NOT SURE THAT CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED ALL THAT
MUCH OUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS IT SEEMS EACH NEW MODEL RUN BEARS
ONLY A VAGUE RESEMBLANCE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE
ACTIVATION OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. NOT SURE THE GFS IS NOT OVERDONE WITH THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT TO OUR S/SW...SO HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP CHANCES
LOW AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORS. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP WE HAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP A FOCUS NEAR THE S/SW UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM WAVE NEVER IMPRESSES MUCH AS IT PASSES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO THE PRECIP PROBABILITY WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE...WHICH IS HOPEFULLY NOT OVERDONE. PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT
PART OF THE FCST FOR THIS PART OF THE WEEK IS THE EASTERN UPPER TROF
LIFTING OUT AND THE REPLACEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE E
COAST...WHICH SHOULD SPELL A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR A
CHANGE. THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO
RAISE THE CHANCE EARLIER ON FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA WILL BE IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MEANS WE MIGHT SEE ENUF BUOYANCY TO
FEED SOME DEEPER CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
FURTHER EVALUATED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DECREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT BENEATH CLEAR SKIES.  AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVERHEAD
THROUGH MID MORNING EXPECTING FLOW TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE BEFORE
VEERING TO THE SW AT AROUND 6-8KTS AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECTING SKC TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MODELS
INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE REGION.
THUS...ALL SITES FEATURE FEW HIGH CLOUDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ADDITION OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS AT KAVL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE INTRUDES.

OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FROPA
ON MONDAY AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM DIURNALLY
EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...HOWEVER...DRYING
FUELS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.  IN COORDINATION WITH GA
LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS62 KGSP 290735
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PASS OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD.  AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP
OVER THE LOW COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AS IT DIGS OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BEFORE SLIDING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTING SFC FLOW TO VEER SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF WEAK WAA.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER STILL TOPPING OUT NEARLY A CAT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.  ADDITIONALLY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE CALMER TODAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AT THE REQUEST OF LAND MANAGERS...WITH
NO OTHER PRODUCTS PLANNED FOR NC/SC.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS
IN NATURE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SLIDES BY ALONG WITH MODEST LLJ POSSIBLY ENHANCING MOISTURE FLUX AND
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
LEVELS ALONG THE SPINE WITH LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER EAST
THROUGH PERIODS END.  QPF WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE CLIMO
FAVORED REGIONS OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH IS
POSSIBLE...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL DIURNALLY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS THAN NIGHTS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE MODELS STILL SUGGEST A RAPID FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD QUICKLY.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY E OF THE MTNS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC IS NOT GREAT AND
THE SYSTEM IS COMING IN FROM THE WNW. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE OVER
AND DONE WITH BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ROUGHLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGHS IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
REST OF THE SHORT RANGE IS RELATIVELY QUIET. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE A WEAK HIGH MOVE OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE SE COAST.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO ACTIVATE THE OLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. THINK THE EWD EXTENT OF THIS
IS OVERDONE/PREMATURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PREFER TO STICK CLOSER
TO THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...NOT SURE THAT CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED ALL THAT
MUCH OUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS IT SEEMS EACH NEW MODEL RUN BEARS
ONLY A VAGUE RESEMBLANCE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE
ACTIVATION OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. NOT SURE THE GFS IS NOT OVERDONE WITH THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT TO OUR S/SW...SO HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP CHANCES
LOW AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORS. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP WE HAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP A FOCUS NEAR THE S/SW UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM WAVE NEVER IMPRESSES MUCH AS IT PASSES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO THE PRECIP PROBABILITY WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE...WHICH IS HOPEFULLY NOT OVERDONE. PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT
PART OF THE FCST FOR THIS PART OF THE WEEK IS THE EASTERN UPPER TROF
LIFTING OUT AND THE REPLACEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE E
COAST...WHICH SHOULD SPELL A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR A
CHANGE. THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO
RAISE THE CHANCE EARLIER ON FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA WILL BE IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MEANS WE MIGHT SEE ENUF BUOYANCY TO
FEED SOME DEEPER CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
FURTHER EVALUATED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DECREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT BENEATH CLEAR SKIES.  AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVERHEAD
THROUGH MID MORNING EXPECTING FLOW TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE BEFORE
VEERING TO THE SW AT AROUND 6-8KTS AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECTING SKC TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MODELS
INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE REGION.
THUS...ALL SITES FEATURE FEW HIGH CLOUDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ADDITION OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS AT KAVL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE INTRUDES.

OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FROPA
ON MONDAY AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM DIURNALLY
EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...HOWEVER...DRYING
FUELS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.  IN COORDINATION WITH GA
LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290735
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PASS OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD.  AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP
OVER THE LOW COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AS IT DIGS OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BEFORE SLIDING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTING SFC FLOW TO VEER SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF WEAK WAA.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER STILL TOPPING OUT NEARLY A CAT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.  ADDITIONALLY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE CALMER TODAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AT THE REQUEST OF LAND MANAGERS...WITH
NO OTHER PRODUCTS PLANNED FOR NC/SC.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY...EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO ADVECT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS.  POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE NUMEROUS
IN NATURE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SLIDES BY ALONG WITH MODEST LLJ POSSIBLY ENHANCING MOISTURE FLUX AND
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.  THEREFORE POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
LEVELS ALONG THE SPINE WITH LIKELY/CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER EAST
THROUGH PERIODS END.  QPF WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE CLIMO
FAVORED REGIONS OF THE SW NC MTNS WHERE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH IS
POSSIBLE...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL COOL DIURNALLY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS THAN NIGHTS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE MODELS STILL SUGGEST A RAPID FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD QUICKLY.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY E OF THE MTNS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC IS NOT GREAT AND
THE SYSTEM IS COMING IN FROM THE WNW. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE OVER
AND DONE WITH BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE E OF
THE MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ROUGHLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS
HIGHS IN SPITE OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
REST OF THE SHORT RANGE IS RELATIVELY QUIET. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE A WEAK HIGH MOVE OVERHEAD THEN OFF THE SE COAST.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO ACTIVATE THE OLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. THINK THE EWD EXTENT OF THIS
IS OVERDONE/PREMATURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PREFER TO STICK CLOSER
TO THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...NOT SURE THAT CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED ALL THAT
MUCH OUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS IT SEEMS EACH NEW MODEL RUN BEARS
ONLY A VAGUE RESEMBLANCE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE FIRST ISSUE IS THE
ACTIVATION OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. NOT SURE THE GFS IS NOT OVERDONE WITH THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP NEAR THE FRONT TO OUR S/SW...SO HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP CHANCES
LOW AND IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORS. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP WE HAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP A FOCUS NEAR THE S/SW UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM WAVE NEVER IMPRESSES MUCH AS IT PASSES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO THE PRECIP PROBABILITY WAS LIMITED TO THE CHANCE
RANGE...WHICH IS HOPEFULLY NOT OVERDONE. PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT
PART OF THE FCST FOR THIS PART OF THE WEEK IS THE EASTERN UPPER TROF
LIFTING OUT AND THE REPLACEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE E
COAST...WHICH SHOULD SPELL A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR A
CHANGE. THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NW AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO
RAISE THE CHANCE EARLIER ON FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA WILL BE IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MEANS WE MIGHT SEE ENUF BUOYANCY TO
FEED SOME DEEPER CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
FURTHER EVALUATED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DECREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT BENEATH CLEAR SKIES.  AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVERHEAD
THROUGH MID MORNING EXPECTING FLOW TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE BEFORE
VEERING TO THE SW AT AROUND 6-8KTS AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECTING SKC TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MODELS
INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE REGION.
THUS...ALL SITES FEATURE FEW HIGH CLOUDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ADDITION OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS AT KAVL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE INTRUDES.

OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FROPA
ON MONDAY AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM DIURNALLY
EXPECTING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...HOWEVER...DRYING
FUELS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.  IN COORDINATION WITH GA
LAND MANAGERS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290524
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
124 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS OVER THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE REGION AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE BENEATH CLEAR
SKIES.  CURRENTLY MOST NORTHEAST GA...UPSTATE SC...AND NC PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S WHILE
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE OVERSPREADING THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THUS...THINK CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WHICH CONTINUES TO YIELD
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING LOWS...ESPECIALLY AT CHARLOTTE.  NO SIG
CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH JUST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH IS SHOWN TO BE MORE OR LESS
CENTERED OVER THE CWFA AT 12Z SUNDAY...FOSTERING MINIMAL RH OVER A
DEEP LAYER...AND GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
ALREADY VERY COLD AIRMASS. PER NWS RAPID CITY RAOB CLIMATOLOGY...
850MB TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. ON THE OTHER HAND NAM PROG SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT
SUGGEST DECOUPLING WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AS A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE AIRMASS CENTERS
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS...BUT I DID NOT
FAVOR THE COLDEST GUIDANCE IN LIGHT OF THE SLOW DECOUPLING.
NONETHELESS A HARD FREEZE IS NEARLY CERTAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES WHERE WIDESPREAD PLANT
GROWTH HAS GOTTEN UNDERWAY.

THE SFC HIGH SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS USHERS IN SWLY WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO
OUR WEST. THUS A DRY AND SUNNY DAY IS ANTICIPATED PERHAPS WITH A FEW
ELEVATED CLOUDS FILTERING IN BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN
CHILLY...MAXES BEING 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. RH WILL STILL
BE QUITE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. CRITERIA FOR A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE MET IN OUR NORTHEAST GEORGIA COUNTIES. SEE FIRE WX
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...A DIGGING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WITH 850 MB FLOW VEERING QUICKLY WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE PASSING CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS THE MTNS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIQUID PTYPES THROUGHOUT. DESPITE THE MORNING FROPA...
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND GOOD INSOLATION WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO RISE
TO WITHIN A CATEGORY OF CLIMO EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MON AFTN.
MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.

DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WILL THEN SET UP MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. W TO SW
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL PERMIT A STEADY WARMUP...WITH ABOVE CLIMO
TEMPS THROUGHOUT BY TUE AFTN. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE NRN
TIER LATE TUE...BUT WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE THAN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE...OR
AT LEAST OFFER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS...WITH THE SHORT
WAVE DETAILS WITHIN CHANGING UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN
GENERAL...THE GFS EXHIBITS STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM (AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD)...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER (AND THEREFORE SLOWER) WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
VORT MAX THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE ARKLATEX WED NIGHT. WHILE THE MORE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CHANCES...AND
CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THU INTO
THU NIGHT...EVEN THE GFS DEPICTS A LIGHT QPF RESPONSE DURING THIS
TIME...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SOLID POPS THROUGH THU...
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING.

MODEL DIFFERENCES ONLY BECOME FURTHER AMPLIFIED TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. AGAIN...THE GFS FEATURES A QUITE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING BETWEEN HUDSONS BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN RATHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN N.A. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF... WHICH IS
MUCH MORE MUTED WITH THE LEAD WAVE...ALLOWS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY...WITH A
MAJOR CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE MID-MISS VALLEY...LIFTING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW FOR A
LARGE WARM SECTOR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WOULD BE A DECENT SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
AREA...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL ATTM OWING TO
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE SHORT WAVE DETAILS. (AND INDEED THE
PATTERN INDICATED BY THE LESS AMPLIFIED/WEAKER GFS WOULD BE MUCH
LESS CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...SIGNALS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANT INCREASING POPS ABOVE CLIMO FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DECREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT BENEATH CLEAR SKIES.  AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVERHEAD
THROUGH MID MORNING EXPECTING FLOW TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE BEFORE
VEERING TO THE SW AT AROUND 6-8KTS AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECTING SKC TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MODELS
INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE REGION.
THUS...ALL SITES FEATURE FEW HIGH CLOUDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ADDITION OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS AT KAVL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE INTRUDES.

OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FROPA
ON MONDAY AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE PRESENCE OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR RH TO DIP
TO CRITICAL LEVELS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SUGGESTING FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. FUEL MOISTURES IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
ARE ALREADY NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP APPRECIABLY THRU TONIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290524
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
124 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS OVER THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE REGION AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE BENEATH CLEAR
SKIES.  CURRENTLY MOST NORTHEAST GA...UPSTATE SC...AND NC PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S WHILE
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE OVERSPREADING THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THUS...THINK CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WHICH CONTINUES TO YIELD
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING LOWS...ESPECIALLY AT CHARLOTTE.  NO SIG
CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH JUST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH IS SHOWN TO BE MORE OR LESS
CENTERED OVER THE CWFA AT 12Z SUNDAY...FOSTERING MINIMAL RH OVER A
DEEP LAYER...AND GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
ALREADY VERY COLD AIRMASS. PER NWS RAPID CITY RAOB CLIMATOLOGY...
850MB TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. ON THE OTHER HAND NAM PROG SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT
SUGGEST DECOUPLING WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AS A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE AIRMASS CENTERS
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS...BUT I DID NOT
FAVOR THE COLDEST GUIDANCE IN LIGHT OF THE SLOW DECOUPLING.
NONETHELESS A HARD FREEZE IS NEARLY CERTAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES WHERE WIDESPREAD PLANT
GROWTH HAS GOTTEN UNDERWAY.

THE SFC HIGH SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS USHERS IN SWLY WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO
OUR WEST. THUS A DRY AND SUNNY DAY IS ANTICIPATED PERHAPS WITH A FEW
ELEVATED CLOUDS FILTERING IN BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN
CHILLY...MAXES BEING 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. RH WILL STILL
BE QUITE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. CRITERIA FOR A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE MET IN OUR NORTHEAST GEORGIA COUNTIES. SEE FIRE WX
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...A DIGGING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WITH 850 MB FLOW VEERING QUICKLY WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE PASSING CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS THE MTNS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIQUID PTYPES THROUGHOUT. DESPITE THE MORNING FROPA...
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND GOOD INSOLATION WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO RISE
TO WITHIN A CATEGORY OF CLIMO EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MON AFTN.
MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.

DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WILL THEN SET UP MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. W TO SW
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL PERMIT A STEADY WARMUP...WITH ABOVE CLIMO
TEMPS THROUGHOUT BY TUE AFTN. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE NRN
TIER LATE TUE...BUT WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE THAN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE...OR
AT LEAST OFFER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS...WITH THE SHORT
WAVE DETAILS WITHIN CHANGING UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN
GENERAL...THE GFS EXHIBITS STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM (AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD)...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER (AND THEREFORE SLOWER) WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
VORT MAX THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE ARKLATEX WED NIGHT. WHILE THE MORE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CHANCES...AND
CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THU INTO
THU NIGHT...EVEN THE GFS DEPICTS A LIGHT QPF RESPONSE DURING THIS
TIME...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SOLID POPS THROUGH THU...
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING.

MODEL DIFFERENCES ONLY BECOME FURTHER AMPLIFIED TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. AGAIN...THE GFS FEATURES A QUITE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING BETWEEN HUDSONS BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN RATHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN N.A. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF... WHICH IS
MUCH MORE MUTED WITH THE LEAD WAVE...ALLOWS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY...WITH A
MAJOR CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE MID-MISS VALLEY...LIFTING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW FOR A
LARGE WARM SECTOR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WOULD BE A DECENT SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
AREA...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL ATTM OWING TO
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE SHORT WAVE DETAILS. (AND INDEED THE
PATTERN INDICATED BY THE LESS AMPLIFIED/WEAKER GFS WOULD BE MUCH
LESS CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...SIGNALS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANT INCREASING POPS ABOVE CLIMO FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DECREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT BENEATH CLEAR SKIES.  AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVERHEAD
THROUGH MID MORNING EXPECTING FLOW TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE BEFORE
VEERING TO THE SW AT AROUND 6-8KTS AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECTING SKC TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MODELS
INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE REGION.
THUS...ALL SITES FEATURE FEW HIGH CLOUDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ADDITION OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS AT KAVL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE INTRUDES.

OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FROPA
ON MONDAY AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE PRESENCE OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR RH TO DIP
TO CRITICAL LEVELS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SUGGESTING FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. FUEL MOISTURES IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
ARE ALREADY NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP APPRECIABLY THRU TONIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS62 KGSP 290524
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
124 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS OVER THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE REGION AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE BENEATH CLEAR
SKIES.  CURRENTLY MOST NORTHEAST GA...UPSTATE SC...AND NC PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S WHILE
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE OVERSPREADING THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THUS...THINK CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WHICH CONTINUES TO YIELD
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING LOWS...ESPECIALLY AT CHARLOTTE.  NO SIG
CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH JUST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH IS SHOWN TO BE MORE OR LESS
CENTERED OVER THE CWFA AT 12Z SUNDAY...FOSTERING MINIMAL RH OVER A
DEEP LAYER...AND GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
ALREADY VERY COLD AIRMASS. PER NWS RAPID CITY RAOB CLIMATOLOGY...
850MB TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. ON THE OTHER HAND NAM PROG SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT
SUGGEST DECOUPLING WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AS A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE AIRMASS CENTERS
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS...BUT I DID NOT
FAVOR THE COLDEST GUIDANCE IN LIGHT OF THE SLOW DECOUPLING.
NONETHELESS A HARD FREEZE IS NEARLY CERTAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES WHERE WIDESPREAD PLANT
GROWTH HAS GOTTEN UNDERWAY.

THE SFC HIGH SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS USHERS IN SWLY WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO
OUR WEST. THUS A DRY AND SUNNY DAY IS ANTICIPATED PERHAPS WITH A FEW
ELEVATED CLOUDS FILTERING IN BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN
CHILLY...MAXES BEING 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. RH WILL STILL
BE QUITE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. CRITERIA FOR A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE MET IN OUR NORTHEAST GEORGIA COUNTIES. SEE FIRE WX
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...A DIGGING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WITH 850 MB FLOW VEERING QUICKLY WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE PASSING CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS THE MTNS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIQUID PTYPES THROUGHOUT. DESPITE THE MORNING FROPA...
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND GOOD INSOLATION WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO RISE
TO WITHIN A CATEGORY OF CLIMO EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MON AFTN.
MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.

DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WILL THEN SET UP MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. W TO SW
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL PERMIT A STEADY WARMUP...WITH ABOVE CLIMO
TEMPS THROUGHOUT BY TUE AFTN. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE NRN
TIER LATE TUE...BUT WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE THAN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE...OR
AT LEAST OFFER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS...WITH THE SHORT
WAVE DETAILS WITHIN CHANGING UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN
GENERAL...THE GFS EXHIBITS STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM (AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD)...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER (AND THEREFORE SLOWER) WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
VORT MAX THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE ARKLATEX WED NIGHT. WHILE THE MORE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CHANCES...AND
CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THU INTO
THU NIGHT...EVEN THE GFS DEPICTS A LIGHT QPF RESPONSE DURING THIS
TIME...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SOLID POPS THROUGH THU...
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING.

MODEL DIFFERENCES ONLY BECOME FURTHER AMPLIFIED TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. AGAIN...THE GFS FEATURES A QUITE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING BETWEEN HUDSONS BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN RATHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN N.A. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF... WHICH IS
MUCH MORE MUTED WITH THE LEAD WAVE...ALLOWS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY...WITH A
MAJOR CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE MID-MISS VALLEY...LIFTING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW FOR A
LARGE WARM SECTOR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WOULD BE A DECENT SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
AREA...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL ATTM OWING TO
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE SHORT WAVE DETAILS. (AND INDEED THE
PATTERN INDICATED BY THE LESS AMPLIFIED/WEAKER GFS WOULD BE MUCH
LESS CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...SIGNALS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANT INCREASING POPS ABOVE CLIMO FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DECREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT BENEATH CLEAR SKIES.  AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVERHEAD
THROUGH MID MORNING EXPECTING FLOW TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE BEFORE
VEERING TO THE SW AT AROUND 6-8KTS AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECTING SKC TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MODELS
INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE REGION.
THUS...ALL SITES FEATURE FEW HIGH CLOUDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ADDITION OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS AT KAVL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE INTRUDES.

OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FROPA
ON MONDAY AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE PRESENCE OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR RH TO DIP
TO CRITICAL LEVELS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SUGGESTING FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. FUEL MOISTURES IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
ARE ALREADY NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP APPRECIABLY THRU TONIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290524
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
124 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS OVER THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE REGION AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE BENEATH CLEAR
SKIES.  CURRENTLY MOST NORTHEAST GA...UPSTATE SC...AND NC PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S WHILE
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE OVERSPREADING THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THUS...THINK CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WHICH CONTINUES TO YIELD
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING LOWS...ESPECIALLY AT CHARLOTTE.  NO SIG
CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 215 PM...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH JUST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH IS SHOWN TO BE MORE OR LESS
CENTERED OVER THE CWFA AT 12Z SUNDAY...FOSTERING MINIMAL RH OVER A
DEEP LAYER...AND GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
ALREADY VERY COLD AIRMASS. PER NWS RAPID CITY RAOB CLIMATOLOGY...
850MB TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. ON THE OTHER HAND NAM PROG SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT
SUGGEST DECOUPLING WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AS A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE AIRMASS CENTERS
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS...BUT I DID NOT
FAVOR THE COLDEST GUIDANCE IN LIGHT OF THE SLOW DECOUPLING.
NONETHELESS A HARD FREEZE IS NEARLY CERTAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES WHERE WIDESPREAD PLANT
GROWTH HAS GOTTEN UNDERWAY.

THE SFC HIGH SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS USHERS IN SWLY WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO
OUR WEST. THUS A DRY AND SUNNY DAY IS ANTICIPATED PERHAPS WITH A FEW
ELEVATED CLOUDS FILTERING IN BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN
CHILLY...MAXES BEING 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. RH WILL STILL
BE QUITE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. CRITERIA FOR A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE MET IN OUR NORTHEAST GEORGIA COUNTIES. SEE FIRE WX
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...A DIGGING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WITH 850 MB FLOW VEERING QUICKLY WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE PASSING CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS THE MTNS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIQUID PTYPES THROUGHOUT. DESPITE THE MORNING FROPA...
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND GOOD INSOLATION WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO RISE
TO WITHIN A CATEGORY OF CLIMO EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MON AFTN.
MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.

DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WILL THEN SET UP MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. W TO SW
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL PERMIT A STEADY WARMUP...WITH ABOVE CLIMO
TEMPS THROUGHOUT BY TUE AFTN. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE NRN
TIER LATE TUE...BUT WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE THAN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE...OR
AT LEAST OFFER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS...WITH THE SHORT
WAVE DETAILS WITHIN CHANGING UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN
GENERAL...THE GFS EXHIBITS STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM (AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD)...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER (AND THEREFORE SLOWER) WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
VORT MAX THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE ARKLATEX WED NIGHT. WHILE THE MORE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CHANCES...AND
CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THU INTO
THU NIGHT...EVEN THE GFS DEPICTS A LIGHT QPF RESPONSE DURING THIS
TIME...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SOLID POPS THROUGH THU...
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING.

MODEL DIFFERENCES ONLY BECOME FURTHER AMPLIFIED TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. AGAIN...THE GFS FEATURES A QUITE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING BETWEEN HUDSONS BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN RATHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN N.A. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF... WHICH IS
MUCH MORE MUTED WITH THE LEAD WAVE...ALLOWS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY...WITH A
MAJOR CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE MID-MISS VALLEY...LIFTING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW FOR A
LARGE WARM SECTOR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WOULD BE A DECENT SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
AREA...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL ATTM OWING TO
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE SHORT WAVE DETAILS. (AND INDEED THE
PATTERN INDICATED BY THE LESS AMPLIFIED/WEAKER GFS WOULD BE MUCH
LESS CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...SIGNALS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANT INCREASING POPS ABOVE CLIMO FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. INTRUDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DECREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT BENEATH CLEAR SKIES.  AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVERHEAD
THROUGH MID MORNING EXPECTING FLOW TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE BEFORE
VEERING TO THE SW AT AROUND 6-8KTS AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECTING SKC TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MODELS
INDICATE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE REGION.
THUS...ALL SITES FEATURE FEW HIGH CLOUDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ADDITION OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS AT KAVL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE INTRUDES.

OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FROPA
ON MONDAY AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE PRESENCE OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR RH TO DIP
TO CRITICAL LEVELS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SUGGESTING FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. FUEL MOISTURES IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
ARE ALREADY NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP APPRECIABLY THRU TONIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS62 KGSP 290205
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1005 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS OVER THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0200 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY
FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AS OF 215 PM...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH JUST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH IS SHOWN TO BE MORE OR LESS
CENTERED OVER THE CWFA AT 12Z SUNDAY...FOSTERING MINIMAL RH OVER A
DEEP LAYER...AND GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
ALREADY VERY COLD AIRMASS. PER NWS RAPID CITY RAOB CLIMATOLOGY...
850MB TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. ON THE OTHER HAND NAM PROG SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT
SUGGEST DECOUPLING WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AS A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE AIRMASS CENTERS
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS...BUT I DID NOT
FAVOR THE COLDEST GUIDANCE IN LIGHT OF THE SLOW DECOUPLING.
NONETHELESS A HARD FREEZE IS NEARLY CERTAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES WHERE WIDESPREAD PLANT
GROWTH HAS GOTTEN UNDERWAY.

THE SFC HIGH SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS USHERS IN SWLY WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO
OUR WEST. THUS A DRY AND SUNNY DAY IS ANTICIPATED PERHAPS WITH A FEW
ELEVATED CLOUDS FILTERING IN BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN
CHILLY...MAXES BEING 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. RH WILL STILL
BE QUITE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. CRITERIA FOR A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE MET IN OUR NORTHEAST GEORGIA COUNTIES. SEE FIRE WX
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...A DIGGING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WITH 850 MB FLOW VEERING QUICKLY WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE PASSING CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS THE MTNS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIQUID PTYPES THROUGHOUT. DESPITE THE MORNING FROPA...
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND GOOD INSOLATION WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO RISE
TO WITHIN A CATEGORY OF CLIMO EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MON AFTN.
MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.

DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WILL THEN SET UP MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. W TO SW
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL PERMIT A STEADY WARMUP...WITH ABOVE CLIMO
TEMPS THROUGHOUT BY TUE AFTN. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE NRN
TIER LATE TUE...BUT WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE THAN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE...OR
AT LEAST OFFER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS...WITH THE SHORT
WAVE DETAILS WITHIN CHANGING UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN
GENERAL...THE GFS EXHIBITS STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM (AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD)...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER (AND THEREFORE SLOWER) WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
VORT MAX THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE ARKLATEX WED NIGHT. WHILE THE MORE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CHANCES...AND
CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THU INTO
THU NIGHT...EVEN THE GFS DEPICTS A LIGHT QPF RESPONSE DURING THIS
TIME...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SOLID POPS THROUGH THU...
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING.

MODEL DIFFERENCES ONLY BECOME FURTHER AMPLIFIED TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. AGAIN...THE GFS FEATURES A QUITE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING BETWEEN HUDSONS BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN RATHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN N.A. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF... WHICH IS
MUCH MORE MUTED WITH THE LEAD WAVE...ALLOWS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY...WITH A
MAJOR CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE MID-MISS VALLEY...LIFTING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW FOR A
LARGE WARM SECTOR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WOULD BE A DECENT SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
AREA...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL ATTM OWING TO
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE SHORT WAVE DETAILS. (AND INDEED THE
PATTERN INDICATED BY THE LESS AMPLIFIED/WEAKER GFS WOULD BE MUCH
LESS CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...SIGNALS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANT INCREASING POPS ABOVE CLIMO FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR...WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW LOW
VFR CLOUDS...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL VEER NE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN SW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NO FOG IS EXPECTED IN A DRY AIR
MASS WITH WINDS UP SLIGHTLY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CLOUDS COVER WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A
FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. NW WINDS WILL VEER NE OVERNIGHT
AT FOOTHILLS SITES...THEN GO S AT ALL SITES IN THE MORNING...AND SW
AT FOOTHILLS SITES IN THE AFTERNOON. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE AIR
MASS REMAINS DRY AND WINDS REMAIN UP SLIGHTLY.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FOR MONDAY. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FROPA ON MONDAY AT ALL
SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL. BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN LATER
IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE PRESENCE OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR RH TO DIP
TO CRITICAL LEVELS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SUGGESTING FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. FUEL MOISTURES IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
ARE ALREADY NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP APPRECIABLY THRU TONIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290205
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1005 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS OVER THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0200 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY
FOR A BETTER FIT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

AS OF 215 PM...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH JUST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH IS SHOWN TO BE MORE OR LESS
CENTERED OVER THE CWFA AT 12Z SUNDAY...FOSTERING MINIMAL RH OVER A
DEEP LAYER...AND GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
ALREADY VERY COLD AIRMASS. PER NWS RAPID CITY RAOB CLIMATOLOGY...
850MB TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. ON THE OTHER HAND NAM PROG SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT
SUGGEST DECOUPLING WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AS A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL EXISTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE AIRMASS CENTERS
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS...BUT I DID NOT
FAVOR THE COLDEST GUIDANCE IN LIGHT OF THE SLOW DECOUPLING.
NONETHELESS A HARD FREEZE IS NEARLY CERTAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES WHERE WIDESPREAD PLANT
GROWTH HAS GOTTEN UNDERWAY.

THE SFC HIGH SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS USHERS IN SWLY WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT...THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO
OUR WEST. THUS A DRY AND SUNNY DAY IS ANTICIPATED PERHAPS WITH A FEW
ELEVATED CLOUDS FILTERING IN BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN
CHILLY...MAXES BEING 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. RH WILL STILL
BE QUITE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. CRITERIA FOR A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE MET IN OUR NORTHEAST GEORGIA COUNTIES. SEE FIRE WX
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...A DIGGING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WITH 850 MB FLOW VEERING QUICKLY WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE PASSING CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS THE MTNS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIQUID PTYPES THROUGHOUT. DESPITE THE MORNING FROPA...
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND GOOD INSOLATION WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO RISE
TO WITHIN A CATEGORY OF CLIMO EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MON AFTN.
MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO IN MOST AREAS.

DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WILL THEN SET UP MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. W TO SW
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL PERMIT A STEADY WARMUP...WITH ABOVE CLIMO
TEMPS THROUGHOUT BY TUE AFTN. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE NRN
TIER LATE TUE...BUT WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE THAN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE...OR
AT LEAST OFFER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS...WITH THE SHORT
WAVE DETAILS WITHIN CHANGING UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN
GENERAL...THE GFS EXHIBITS STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM (AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD)...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER (AND THEREFORE SLOWER) WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
VORT MAX THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE ARKLATEX WED NIGHT. WHILE THE MORE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CHANCES...AND
CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THU INTO
THU NIGHT...EVEN THE GFS DEPICTS A LIGHT QPF RESPONSE DURING THIS
TIME...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SOLID POPS THROUGH THU...
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING.

MODEL DIFFERENCES ONLY BECOME FURTHER AMPLIFIED TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. AGAIN...THE GFS FEATURES A QUITE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING BETWEEN HUDSONS BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN RATHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN N.A. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF... WHICH IS
MUCH MORE MUTED WITH THE LEAD WAVE...ALLOWS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY...WITH A
MAJOR CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE MID-MISS VALLEY...LIFTING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW FOR A
LARGE WARM SECTOR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WOULD BE A DECENT SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
AREA...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL ATTM OWING TO
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE SHORT WAVE DETAILS. (AND INDEED THE
PATTERN INDICATED BY THE LESS AMPLIFIED/WEAKER GFS WOULD BE MUCH
LESS CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...SIGNALS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANT INCREASING POPS ABOVE CLIMO FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR...WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW LOW
VFR CLOUDS...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL VEER NE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN SW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NO FOG IS EXPECTED IN A DRY AIR
MASS WITH WINDS UP SLIGHTLY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CLOUDS COVER WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A
FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. NW WINDS WILL VEER NE OVERNIGHT
AT FOOTHILLS SITES...THEN GO S AT ALL SITES IN THE MORNING...AND SW
AT FOOTHILLS SITES IN THE AFTERNOON. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE AIR
MASS REMAINS DRY AND WINDS REMAIN UP SLIGHTLY.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FOR MONDAY. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FROPA ON MONDAY AT ALL
SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL. BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN LATER
IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE PRESENCE OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR RH TO DIP
TO CRITICAL LEVELS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SUGGESTING FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. FUEL MOISTURES IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
ARE ALREADY NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP APPRECIABLY THRU TONIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
     FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...





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