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000
FXUS62 KGSP 181803
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACRS ERN TN AND
THE NC MTNS THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW LIGHT RETURNS STREAKING ACRS
THE AREA INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS LOOKS TO BE
VIRGA (AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PICTURES SHOWING THIS). SO I THINK
THE POP TRENDS LOOK GOOD...WITH ANY TRACE WINTRY PRECIP CHCS LOOKING
TO BE OVER WITH THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE SKY GRIDS...AS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET ALOFT. MODELS STILL SHOW
SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTN. SO I
WILL LEAVE THE MAX TEMP FCST AS IS. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM IN SPOTS...IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN RATHER THICK THRU THE DAY.

AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR PRECIP SHIELD
SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.  UPPER WAVE DRIVING
THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE TN LINE.  THUS...RAMPED POPS UP A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE SMOKIES AND PORTIONS OF
THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY.  SUBFREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THESE ZONES
COULD PRESENT SOME MINOR PTYPE ISSUES WITH SLEET/FZRA POSSIBLE FOR A
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE PBL WARMS AFTER SUNRISE.  STILL EXPECTING THE
DRY MID LEVELS TO WIN OUT AS SAID PRECIP APPROACHES THEREBY LIMITING
THE DURATION/INTENSITY.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  TAFS INITIALIZE WITH SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
DECK...SOMEWHAT STRUGGLING TO STAY A CIG AS IT CROSSES THE MTNS.
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SCT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE REMNANT SCT LOW VFR
STRATUS LINGERS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FAVORING A SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL SITES...THEN TURNING TO NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT. ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 181445
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACRS ERN TN AND
THE NC MTNS THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW LIGHT RETURNS STREAKING ACRS
THE AREA INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS LOOKS TO BE
VIRGA (AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PICTURES SHOWING THIS). SO I THINK
THE POP TRENDS LOOK GOOD...WITH ANY TRACE WINTRY PRECIP CHCS LOOKING
TO BE OVER WITH THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE SKY GRIDS...AS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET ALOFT. MODELS STILL SHOW
SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTN. SO I
WILL LEAVE THE MAX TEMP FCST AS IS. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM IN SPOTS...IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN RATHER THICK THRU THE DAY.

AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR PRECIP SHIELD
SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.  UPPER WAVE DRIVING
THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE TN LINE.  THUS...RAMPED POPS UP A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE SMOKIES AND PORTIONS OF
THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY.  SUBFREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THESE ZONES
COULD PRESENT SOME MINOR PTYPE ISSUES WITH SLEET/FZRA POSSIBLE FOR A
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE PBL WARMS AFTER SUNRISE.  STILL EXPECTING THE
DRY MID LEVELS TO WIN OUT AS SAID PRECIP APPROACHES THEREBY LIMITING
THE DURATION/INTENSITY.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SCT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE REMNANT SCT LOW VFR
STRATUS LINGERS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE BEFORE LEE TROF CAUSES GRADUAL
SOUTHERLY VEERING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS ARE STILL FCST TO VEER S/SW AT
AROUND 5-6KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET
WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A CALM EVENING AMIDST
SCATTERING SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 181445
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACRS ERN TN AND
THE NC MTNS THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW LIGHT RETURNS STREAKING ACRS
THE AREA INTO THE PIEDMONT. MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS LOOKS TO BE
VIRGA (AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PICTURES SHOWING THIS). SO I THINK
THE POP TRENDS LOOK GOOD...WITH ANY TRACE WINTRY PRECIP CHCS LOOKING
TO BE OVER WITH THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE SKY GRIDS...AS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET ALOFT. MODELS STILL SHOW
SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTN. SO I
WILL LEAVE THE MAX TEMP FCST AS IS. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE A BIT TOO
WARM IN SPOTS...IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN RATHER THICK THRU THE DAY.

AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR PRECIP SHIELD
SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.  UPPER WAVE DRIVING
THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE TN LINE.  THUS...RAMPED POPS UP A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE SMOKIES AND PORTIONS OF
THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY.  SUBFREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THESE ZONES
COULD PRESENT SOME MINOR PTYPE ISSUES WITH SLEET/FZRA POSSIBLE FOR A
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE PBL WARMS AFTER SUNRISE.  STILL EXPECTING THE
DRY MID LEVELS TO WIN OUT AS SAID PRECIP APPROACHES THEREBY LIMITING
THE DURATION/INTENSITY.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SCT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE REMNANT SCT LOW VFR
STRATUS LINGERS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE BEFORE LEE TROF CAUSES GRADUAL
SOUTHERLY VEERING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS ARE STILL FCST TO VEER S/SW AT
AROUND 5-6KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET
WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A CALM EVENING AMIDST
SCATTERING SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 181137
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR PRECIP SHIELD
SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.  UPPER WAVE DRIVING
THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE TN LINE.  THUS...RAMPED POPS UP A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE SMOKIES AND PORTIONS OF
THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY.  SUBFREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THESE ZONES
COULD PRESENT SOME MINOR PTYPE ISSUES WITH SLEET/FZRA POSSIBLE FOR A
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE PBL WARMS AFTER SUNRISE.  STILL EXPECTING THE
DRY MID LEVELS TO WIN OUT AS SAID PRECIP APPROACHES THEREBY LIMITING
THE DURATION/INTENSITY.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SCT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE REMNANT SCT LOW VFR
STRATUS LINGERS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE BEFORE LEE TROF CAUSES GRADUAL
SOUTHERLY VEERING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS ARE STILL FCST TO VEER S/SW AT
AROUND 5-6KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET
WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A CALM EVENING AMIDST
SCATTERING SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 181137
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR PRECIP SHIELD
SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.  UPPER WAVE DRIVING
THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE TN LINE.  THUS...RAMPED POPS UP A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE SMOKIES AND PORTIONS OF
THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY.  SUBFREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THESE ZONES
COULD PRESENT SOME MINOR PTYPE ISSUES WITH SLEET/FZRA POSSIBLE FOR A
HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE PBL WARMS AFTER SUNRISE.  STILL EXPECTING THE
DRY MID LEVELS TO WIN OUT AS SAID PRECIP APPROACHES THEREBY LIMITING
THE DURATION/INTENSITY.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SCT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE REMNANT SCT LOW VFR
STRATUS LINGERS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE BEFORE LEE TROF CAUSES GRADUAL
SOUTHERLY VEERING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS ARE STILL FCST TO VEER S/SW AT
AROUND 5-6KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET
WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A CALM EVENING AMIDST
SCATTERING SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 180854
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  ALL TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN/LOWER THROUGH MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CIGS FEATURED.  AS
WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...EXPECTING
LOW VFR BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BEFORE SCT OUT INTO THE
EVENING.  WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH
GRADUAL VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR
KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
VEER S/SW AND INCREASE TO 4-7KTS BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL OTHER SITES AS WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  FLOW WILL
THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A
CALM EVENING AMIDST SCATTERING LOW VFR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 180854
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  ALL TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN/LOWER THROUGH MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CIGS FEATURED.  AS
WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...EXPECTING
LOW VFR BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BEFORE SCT OUT INTO THE
EVENING.  WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH
GRADUAL VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR
KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
VEER S/SW AND INCREASE TO 4-7KTS BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL OTHER SITES AS WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  FLOW WILL
THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A
CALM EVENING AMIDST SCATTERING LOW VFR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 180854
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  ALL TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN/LOWER THROUGH MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CIGS FEATURED.  AS
WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...EXPECTING
LOW VFR BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BEFORE SCT OUT INTO THE
EVENING.  WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH
GRADUAL VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR
KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
VEER S/SW AND INCREASE TO 4-7KTS BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL OTHER SITES AS WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  FLOW WILL
THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A
CALM EVENING AMIDST SCATTERING LOW VFR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 180854
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISRUPTED
SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP SOUTHWARD
INTRUDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL DIURNALLY AIDED BY LIGHT/CALM
WINDS...DESPITE INCREASING SKY COVER.  INTRODUCED MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION THROUGH MORNING AND ISSUE SPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED/OVERCAST
SKIES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT LOW END POPS ALONG THE TN LINE AS SHOWERS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND ARE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPING.  KEPT THIS
IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SMOKIES BEFORE
TRANSITIONING UP THE SPINE INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
EVENING.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED BY 01Z LEADING TO A DRY FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME EJECT NORTHEAST.  EXPECTING PERSISTENTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE FORCING AND FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
THEY ARE ALSO WEAKER...FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SLY H85 FLOW
IS STILL THERE AND VERY MOIST...BUT IT IS WEAKER AS WELL. THE HYBRID
CAD APPEARS TO REMAIN SIMILAR HOWEVER. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SAT MORN...THE QPF HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE THERMAL PROFILES HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
THE SAME...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS NORTHEAST OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. EXPECT LIQUID RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PRECIP WILL BEGIN WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND WET BULBS
BELOW ZERO. WWA KICKS IN AFTER DAYBREAK SAT WITH PRECIP BECOMING ALL
LIQUID BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER QPF EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER WHERE THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS...EXPECTED ACCUMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL. NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET...LIMITED TO THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE. THAT SAID...
ANY CHANGES IN TEMPS OR QPF COULD BRING TOTALS BACK HIGHER. LOWS FRI
NITE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS SAT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD AND PRECIP.

WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIP TAPERS OFF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SAT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMP PROFILES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM...BUT SFC
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIP COULD END AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF HKY. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...QPF WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AS A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL TRY TO MOVE THRU OR UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH ANOTHER HIGH MOVING INTO A DAMMING CONFIGURATION.
THE SHORT WAVES DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HELP
DEVELOP SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SFC TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIQUID
PRECIP. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WHILE
LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH
THE TROF...STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED LOW...AND SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE TROF. PRECIP RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUE NITE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WED...AND COULD LEAD TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BELOW NORMAL BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  ALL TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN/LOWER THROUGH MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CIGS FEATURED.  AS
WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...EXPECTING
LOW VFR BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BEFORE SCT OUT INTO THE
EVENING.  WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH
GRADUAL VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR
KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
VEER S/SW AND INCREASE TO 4-7KTS BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL OTHER SITES AS WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  FLOW WILL
THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A
CALM EVENING AMIDST SCATTERING LOW VFR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   66%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 180541
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1241 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST THURSDAY...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
IN ALOFT FROM UPSTREAM UPPER WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH.  STILL EXPECTING FURTHER THICKENING OF SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT AS THIS WAVE ADVECTS EAST LEADING INTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BY SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE
LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
FEATURED ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS.  CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

930 PM UPDATE...TOUCHED UP TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERAL
SITES WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP HAVE STAYED SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS. ONCE THESE SITES BEGIN TO CALM THEIR
TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK FAIRLY QUICKLY. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT
PER SATELLITE. SEEING A FEW MTN WAVE CIRRUS OVER VA ATTM WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY STARTING TO FORM OVER NW NC. THE SETUP IS SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH WEAKER UPPER FLOW BEING A LIMITING
FACTOR. NONETHELESS HIT CLOUD COVER A LITTLE HARDER IN THE FOOTHILLS
THRU THE EARLY MRNG.

630 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STILL WILL
EXPECT CIRRUS TO INCREASE AND BE JOINED BY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON. TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD IN LIGHT OF OBS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HRS...AND LATEST GUID CONTINUES TO BACK UP MINS NEAR
CLIMO. 18Z NAM/GFS WERE NOT ANY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF QPF IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY THU...SO I BACKED OFF THE ALREADY LOW-END POPS IN
THE SRN MTNS. HOWEVER I DID KEEP A SCHC FOR THE AFTN FURTHER NORTH
WHERE THE INCOMING S/W TROF WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT. AT THIS
TIME OF DAY EVEN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL RAIN...WITH NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED.

AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DRY 1026MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANT NW FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WITH THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECT
AND WEAK CAA FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT. AREAS OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL SEE
SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MID-DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP
OVER THE TN BORDERLINE AS THE BEST UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MOIST LAYER REMAINS ELEVATED. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE HELP
OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE TN BORDERLINE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES FARTHER NE.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPR WAVE WILL QUICKLY DRIFT EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LLVL FLOW REMAINS
W/NWLY. OTHER THAN LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT QUIET WX CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MTNS...AND MID-UPR
30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY...A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ENTER THE LWR MS
VLY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES (~1030MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACRS THE
CWFA...WITH W/NWLY UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NWLY
CAA FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM MID-UPR
WAVE...MAXIMIZING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AROUND 12Z SAT.
MEANWHILE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP...AS 1028-1030MB SFC HIGH
CROSSES QUEBEC...AND MOIST UPGLIDE BREAKS OUT ACRS THE REGION.
PRECIP RAMPS UP FROM SW TO NE LATE FRIDAY NGT TO MIDDAY SATURDAY TO
CATEGORICAL. QPF AMOUNTS SHUD BE GENERALLY 0.5" OR LESS. ALTHO...THE
NAM IS A WET OUTLIER...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN
0.5". THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE P-TYPE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ENUF COOL LLVL AIR/THICKNESSES ACRS THE
NC MTNS TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. AS USUAL...THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SNDGS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF A WARM NOSE...AND
THE DEPTH OF A WARM SFC LAYER. GIVEN THE HYBRID CAD WITH GOOD
UPSLOPE AND LLVL CAA...I LEANED TOWARD THE NAM (GOING 2/1 NAM/GFS).
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY A SLEET/SNOW MIX...WITH OCCASIONAL PATCHY ICE
DURING THE ONSET EARLY SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF...I THINK
IT IS REASONABLE FOR THERE TO BE 2-4 INCHES OF A SLEET/SNOW MIX ACRS
THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT ESCARPMENT...POSSIBLY TO THE BLACK MTNS.
FURTHER SOUTH...IT/S MORE UNCERTAIN. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR
IS DEEP ENUF (PER NAM)...ENUF SLEET MAY ACCUM TO MAKE THIS A LOW-END
WARNING EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN NC ESCARPMENT. I USED THE
CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS...WHICH IS THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE WEDGE. TEMPS WILL HOVER IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
DIG ACRS NRN MEXICO AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...THEN
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NGT THRU
WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT POSITION/DEPTH OF THE CLOSED
LOW...AND THE TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC WAVES TO AFFECT OUR CWFA.
GOING WITH A SUPERBLEND OF CONS/WPC/OFFICIAL...THERE IS A LINGERING
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SAT NGT
THRU TUE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. IF THERE ARE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
IN THE MTNS ANY OF THOSE NIGHTS...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RA/DZ...GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION. HOWEVER...I AM NOT
THAT CONFIDENT ON THAT. IT DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH A WEAK
COASTAL LOW TO OUR SE. TUESDAY MAY BE A MORE PLEASANT DAY...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE (IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF ON A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWING A 12Z WEDNESDAY FROPA. THE ECMWF...WITH ITS STRONGER/DEEPER
MID-UPR LOW...HAS VERY STRONG FLOW WITH THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB FLOW
OF 50-60+ KTS ON BOTH THE WAA AND CAA SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SO THERE
MAY BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WX AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP
AROUND DEC 23-24. STILL NEED MORE TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS...BUT
ALREADY HAVE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS DAY 7). TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE MTNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  ALL TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN/LOWER THROUGH MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CIGS FEATURED.  AS
WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...EXPECTING
LOW VFR BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BEFORE SCT OUT INTO THE
EVENING.  WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH
GRADUAL VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR
KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
VEER S/SW AND INCREASE TO 4-7KTS BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL OTHER SITES AS WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  FLOW WILL
THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A
CALM EVENING AMIDST SCATTERING LOW VFR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 180541
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1241 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST THURSDAY...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
IN ALOFT FROM UPSTREAM UPPER WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH.  STILL EXPECTING FURTHER THICKENING OF SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT AS THIS WAVE ADVECTS EAST LEADING INTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BY SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE
LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
FEATURED ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS.  CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

930 PM UPDATE...TOUCHED UP TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERAL
SITES WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP HAVE STAYED SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS. ONCE THESE SITES BEGIN TO CALM THEIR
TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK FAIRLY QUICKLY. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT
PER SATELLITE. SEEING A FEW MTN WAVE CIRRUS OVER VA ATTM WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY STARTING TO FORM OVER NW NC. THE SETUP IS SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH WEAKER UPPER FLOW BEING A LIMITING
FACTOR. NONETHELESS HIT CLOUD COVER A LITTLE HARDER IN THE FOOTHILLS
THRU THE EARLY MRNG.

630 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STILL WILL
EXPECT CIRRUS TO INCREASE AND BE JOINED BY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON. TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD IN LIGHT OF OBS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HRS...AND LATEST GUID CONTINUES TO BACK UP MINS NEAR
CLIMO. 18Z NAM/GFS WERE NOT ANY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF QPF IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY THU...SO I BACKED OFF THE ALREADY LOW-END POPS IN
THE SRN MTNS. HOWEVER I DID KEEP A SCHC FOR THE AFTN FURTHER NORTH
WHERE THE INCOMING S/W TROF WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT. AT THIS
TIME OF DAY EVEN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL RAIN...WITH NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED.

AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DRY 1026MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANT NW FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WITH THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECT
AND WEAK CAA FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT. AREAS OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL SEE
SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MID-DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP
OVER THE TN BORDERLINE AS THE BEST UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MOIST LAYER REMAINS ELEVATED. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE HELP
OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE TN BORDERLINE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES FARTHER NE.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPR WAVE WILL QUICKLY DRIFT EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LLVL FLOW REMAINS
W/NWLY. OTHER THAN LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT QUIET WX CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MTNS...AND MID-UPR
30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY...A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ENTER THE LWR MS
VLY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES (~1030MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACRS THE
CWFA...WITH W/NWLY UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NWLY
CAA FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM MID-UPR
WAVE...MAXIMIZING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AROUND 12Z SAT.
MEANWHILE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP...AS 1028-1030MB SFC HIGH
CROSSES QUEBEC...AND MOIST UPGLIDE BREAKS OUT ACRS THE REGION.
PRECIP RAMPS UP FROM SW TO NE LATE FRIDAY NGT TO MIDDAY SATURDAY TO
CATEGORICAL. QPF AMOUNTS SHUD BE GENERALLY 0.5" OR LESS. ALTHO...THE
NAM IS A WET OUTLIER...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN
0.5". THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE P-TYPE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ENUF COOL LLVL AIR/THICKNESSES ACRS THE
NC MTNS TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. AS USUAL...THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SNDGS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF A WARM NOSE...AND
THE DEPTH OF A WARM SFC LAYER. GIVEN THE HYBRID CAD WITH GOOD
UPSLOPE AND LLVL CAA...I LEANED TOWARD THE NAM (GOING 2/1 NAM/GFS).
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY A SLEET/SNOW MIX...WITH OCCASIONAL PATCHY ICE
DURING THE ONSET EARLY SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF...I THINK
IT IS REASONABLE FOR THERE TO BE 2-4 INCHES OF A SLEET/SNOW MIX ACRS
THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT ESCARPMENT...POSSIBLY TO THE BLACK MTNS.
FURTHER SOUTH...IT/S MORE UNCERTAIN. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR
IS DEEP ENUF (PER NAM)...ENUF SLEET MAY ACCUM TO MAKE THIS A LOW-END
WARNING EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN NC ESCARPMENT. I USED THE
CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS...WHICH IS THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE WEDGE. TEMPS WILL HOVER IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
DIG ACRS NRN MEXICO AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...THEN
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NGT THRU
WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT POSITION/DEPTH OF THE CLOSED
LOW...AND THE TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC WAVES TO AFFECT OUR CWFA.
GOING WITH A SUPERBLEND OF CONS/WPC/OFFICIAL...THERE IS A LINGERING
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SAT NGT
THRU TUE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. IF THERE ARE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
IN THE MTNS ANY OF THOSE NIGHTS...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RA/DZ...GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION. HOWEVER...I AM NOT
THAT CONFIDENT ON THAT. IT DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH A WEAK
COASTAL LOW TO OUR SE. TUESDAY MAY BE A MORE PLEASANT DAY...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE (IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF ON A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWING A 12Z WEDNESDAY FROPA. THE ECMWF...WITH ITS STRONGER/DEEPER
MID-UPR LOW...HAS VERY STRONG FLOW WITH THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB FLOW
OF 50-60+ KTS ON BOTH THE WAA AND CAA SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SO THERE
MAY BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WX AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP
AROUND DEC 23-24. STILL NEED MORE TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS...BUT
ALREADY HAVE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS DAY 7). TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE MTNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  ALL TAFS INITIALIZE WITH FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.  CIRRUS
WILL THICKEN/LOWER THROUGH MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CIGS FEATURED.  AS
WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...EXPECTING
LOW VFR BKN CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BEFORE SCT OUT INTO THE
EVENING.  WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH
GRADUAL VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR
KAVL WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL
VEER S/SW AND INCREASE TO 4-7KTS BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL OTHER SITES AS WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPS.  FLOW WILL
THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY WINDS LEADING INTO A
CALM EVENING AMIDST SCATTERING LOW VFR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 180245
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...TOUCHED UP TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERAL
SITES WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP HAVE STAYED SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS. ONCE THESE SITES BEGIN TO CALM THEIR
TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK FAIRLY QUICKLY. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT
PER SATELLITE. SEEING A FEW MTN WAVE CIRRUS OVER VA ATTM WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY STARTING TO FORM OVER NW NC. THE SETUP IS SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH WEAKER UPPER FLOW BEING A LIMITING
FACTOR. NONETHELESS HIT CLOUD COVER A LITTLE HARDER IN THE FOOTHILLS
THRU THE EARLY MRNG.

630 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STILL WILL
EXPECT CIRRUS TO INCREASE AND BE JOINED BY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON. TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD IN LIGHT OF OBS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HRS...AND LATEST GUID CONTINUES TO BACK UP MINS NEAR
CLIMO. 18Z NAM/GFS WERE NOT ANY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF QPF IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY THU...SO I BACKED OFF THE ALREADY LOW-END POPS IN
THE SRN MTNS. HOWEVER I DID KEEP A SCHC FOR THE AFTN FURTHER NORTH
WHERE THE INCOMING S/W TROF WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT. AT THIS
TIME OF DAY EVEN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL RAIN...WITH NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED.

AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DRY 1026MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANT NW FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WITH THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECT
AND WEAK CAA FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT. AREAS OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL SEE
SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MID-DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP
OVER THE TN BORDERLINE AS THE BEST UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MOIST LAYER REMAINS ELEVATED. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE HELP
OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE TN BORDERLINE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES FARTHER NE.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPR WAVE WILL QUICKLY DRIFT EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LLVL FLOW REMAINS
W/NWLY. OTHER THAN LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT QUIET WX CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MTNS...AND MID-UPR
30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY...A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ENTER THE LWR MS
VLY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES (~1030MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACRS THE
CWFA...WITH W/NWLY UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NWLY
CAA FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM MID-UPR
WAVE...MAXIMIZING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AROUND 12Z SAT.
MEANWHILE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP...AS 1028-1030MB SFC HIGH
CROSSES QUEBEC...AND MOIST UPGLIDE BREAKS OUT ACRS THE REGION.
PRECIP RAMPS UP FROM SW TO NE LATE FRIDAY NGT TO MIDDAY SATURDAY TO
CATEGORICAL. QPF AMOUNTS SHUD BE GENERALLY 0.5" OR LESS. ALTHO...THE
NAM IS A WET OUTLIER...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN
0.5". THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE P-TYPE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ENUF COOL LLVL AIR/THICKNESSES ACRS THE
NC MTNS TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. AS USUAL...THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SNDGS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF A WARM NOSE...AND
THE DEPTH OF A WARM SFC LAYER. GIVEN THE HYBRID CAD WITH GOOD
UPSLOPE AND LLVL CAA...I LEANED TOWARD THE NAM (GOING 2/1 NAM/GFS).
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY A SLEET/SNOW MIX...WITH OCCASIONAL PATCHY ICE
DURING THE ONSET EARLY SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF...I THINK
IT IS REASONABLE FOR THERE TO BE 2-4 INCHES OF A SLEET/SNOW MIX ACRS
THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT ESCARPMENT...POSSIBLY TO THE BLACK MTNS.
FURTHER SOUTH...IT/S MORE UNCERTAIN. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR
IS DEEP ENUF (PER NAM)...ENUF SLEET MAY ACCUM TO MAKE THIS A LOW-END
WARNING EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN NC ESCARPMENT. I USED THE
CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS...WHICH IS THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE WEDGE. TEMPS WILL HOVER IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
DIG ACRS NRN MEXICO AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...THEN
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NGT THRU
WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT POSITION/DEPTH OF THE CLOSED
LOW...AND THE TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC WAVES TO AFFECT OUR CWFA.
GOING WITH A SUPERBLEND OF CONS/WPC/OFFICIAL...THERE IS A LINGERING
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SAT NGT
THRU TUE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. IF THERE ARE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
IN THE MTNS ANY OF THOSE NIGHTS...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RA/DZ...GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION. HOWEVER...I AM NOT
THAT CONFIDENT ON THAT. IT DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH A WEAK
COASTAL LOW TO OUR SE. TUESDAY MAY BE A MORE PLEASANT DAY...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE (IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF ON A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWING A 12Z WEDNESDAY FROPA. THE ECMWF...WITH ITS STRONGER/DEEPER
MID-UPR LOW...HAS VERY STRONG FLOW WITH THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB FLOW
OF 50-60+ KTS ON BOTH THE WAA AND CAA SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SO THERE
MAY BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WX AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP
AROUND DEC 23-24. STILL NEED MORE TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS...BUT
ALREADY HAVE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS DAY 7). TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE MTNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR WITH CIRRUS THICKENING OVERNIGHT...AND
ARRIVAL OF A MIDLEVEL DECK AFTER DAYBREAK. SFC CONDITIONS AND LLVL
PROFILES ARE TOO DRY FOR FOG TO BE A CONCERN AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. THOUGH SOME SITES MAY CONTINUE TO BE SWLY THIS
EVENING...ANY REMAINING WINDS WILL FAVOR N FOR THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT. KAVL MAY REMAIN MIXED AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA THU...BUT WITH BRISK WLY FLOW ALOFT
ANOTHER LEE TROF IS EXPCD TO FORM. THIS WILL LKLY CAUSE SOME
VARIABILITY AT THE PIEDMONT SITES AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY...WITH
WINDS THEN PREVAILING SWLY FOR THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 180245
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...TOUCHED UP TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERAL
SITES WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP HAVE STAYED SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS. ONCE THESE SITES BEGIN TO CALM THEIR
TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK FAIRLY QUICKLY. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT
PER SATELLITE. SEEING A FEW MTN WAVE CIRRUS OVER VA ATTM WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY STARTING TO FORM OVER NW NC. THE SETUP IS SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH WEAKER UPPER FLOW BEING A LIMITING
FACTOR. NONETHELESS HIT CLOUD COVER A LITTLE HARDER IN THE FOOTHILLS
THRU THE EARLY MRNG.

630 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STILL WILL
EXPECT CIRRUS TO INCREASE AND BE JOINED BY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON. TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD IN LIGHT OF OBS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HRS...AND LATEST GUID CONTINUES TO BACK UP MINS NEAR
CLIMO. 18Z NAM/GFS WERE NOT ANY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF QPF IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY THU...SO I BACKED OFF THE ALREADY LOW-END POPS IN
THE SRN MTNS. HOWEVER I DID KEEP A SCHC FOR THE AFTN FURTHER NORTH
WHERE THE INCOMING S/W TROF WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT. AT THIS
TIME OF DAY EVEN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL RAIN...WITH NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED.

AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DRY 1026MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANT NW FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WITH THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECT
AND WEAK CAA FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT. AREAS OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL SEE
SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MID-DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP
OVER THE TN BORDERLINE AS THE BEST UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MOIST LAYER REMAINS ELEVATED. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE HELP
OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE TN BORDERLINE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES FARTHER NE.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPR WAVE WILL QUICKLY DRIFT EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LLVL FLOW REMAINS
W/NWLY. OTHER THAN LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT QUIET WX CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MTNS...AND MID-UPR
30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY...A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ENTER THE LWR MS
VLY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES (~1030MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACRS THE
CWFA...WITH W/NWLY UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NWLY
CAA FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM MID-UPR
WAVE...MAXIMIZING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AROUND 12Z SAT.
MEANWHILE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP...AS 1028-1030MB SFC HIGH
CROSSES QUEBEC...AND MOIST UPGLIDE BREAKS OUT ACRS THE REGION.
PRECIP RAMPS UP FROM SW TO NE LATE FRIDAY NGT TO MIDDAY SATURDAY TO
CATEGORICAL. QPF AMOUNTS SHUD BE GENERALLY 0.5" OR LESS. ALTHO...THE
NAM IS A WET OUTLIER...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN
0.5". THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE P-TYPE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ENUF COOL LLVL AIR/THICKNESSES ACRS THE
NC MTNS TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. AS USUAL...THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SNDGS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF A WARM NOSE...AND
THE DEPTH OF A WARM SFC LAYER. GIVEN THE HYBRID CAD WITH GOOD
UPSLOPE AND LLVL CAA...I LEANED TOWARD THE NAM (GOING 2/1 NAM/GFS).
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY A SLEET/SNOW MIX...WITH OCCASIONAL PATCHY ICE
DURING THE ONSET EARLY SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF...I THINK
IT IS REASONABLE FOR THERE TO BE 2-4 INCHES OF A SLEET/SNOW MIX ACRS
THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT ESCARPMENT...POSSIBLY TO THE BLACK MTNS.
FURTHER SOUTH...IT/S MORE UNCERTAIN. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR
IS DEEP ENUF (PER NAM)...ENUF SLEET MAY ACCUM TO MAKE THIS A LOW-END
WARNING EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN NC ESCARPMENT. I USED THE
CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS...WHICH IS THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE WEDGE. TEMPS WILL HOVER IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
DIG ACRS NRN MEXICO AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...THEN
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NGT THRU
WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT POSITION/DEPTH OF THE CLOSED
LOW...AND THE TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC WAVES TO AFFECT OUR CWFA.
GOING WITH A SUPERBLEND OF CONS/WPC/OFFICIAL...THERE IS A LINGERING
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SAT NGT
THRU TUE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. IF THERE ARE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
IN THE MTNS ANY OF THOSE NIGHTS...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RA/DZ...GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION. HOWEVER...I AM NOT
THAT CONFIDENT ON THAT. IT DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH A WEAK
COASTAL LOW TO OUR SE. TUESDAY MAY BE A MORE PLEASANT DAY...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE (IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF ON A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWING A 12Z WEDNESDAY FROPA. THE ECMWF...WITH ITS STRONGER/DEEPER
MID-UPR LOW...HAS VERY STRONG FLOW WITH THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB FLOW
OF 50-60+ KTS ON BOTH THE WAA AND CAA SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SO THERE
MAY BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WX AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP
AROUND DEC 23-24. STILL NEED MORE TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS...BUT
ALREADY HAVE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS DAY 7). TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE MTNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR WITH CIRRUS THICKENING OVERNIGHT...AND
ARRIVAL OF A MIDLEVEL DECK AFTER DAYBREAK. SFC CONDITIONS AND LLVL
PROFILES ARE TOO DRY FOR FOG TO BE A CONCERN AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. THOUGH SOME SITES MAY CONTINUE TO BE SWLY THIS
EVENING...ANY REMAINING WINDS WILL FAVOR N FOR THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT. KAVL MAY REMAIN MIXED AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA THU...BUT WITH BRISK WLY FLOW ALOFT
ANOTHER LEE TROF IS EXPCD TO FORM. THIS WILL LKLY CAUSE SOME
VARIABILITY AT THE PIEDMONT SITES AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY...WITH
WINDS THEN PREVAILING SWLY FOR THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 172347
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STILL WILL
EXPECT CIRRUS TO INCREASE AND BE JOINED BY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON. TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD IN LIGHT OF OBS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HRS...AND LATEST GUID CONTINUES TO BACK UP MINS NEAR
CLIMO. 18Z NAM/GFS WERE NOT ANY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF QPF IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY THU...SO I BACKED OFF THE ALREADY LOW-END POPS IN
THE SRN MTNS. HOWEVER I DID KEEP A SCHC FOR THE AFTN FURTHER NORTH
WHERE THE INCOMING S/W TROF WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT. AT THIS
TIME OF DAY EVEN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL RAIN...WITH NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED.

AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DRY 1026MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANT NW FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WITH THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECT
AND WEAK CAA FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT. AREAS OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL SEE
SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MID-DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP
OVER THE TN BORDERLINE AS THE BEST UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MOIST LAYER REMAINS ELEVATED. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE HELP
OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE TN BORDERLINE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES FARTHER NE.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPR WAVE WILL QUICKLY DRIFT EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LLVL FLOW REMAINS
W/NWLY. OTHER THAN LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT QUIET WX CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MTNS...AND MID-UPR
30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY...A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ENTER THE LWR MS
VLY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES (~1030MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACRS THE
CWFA...WITH W/NWLY UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NWLY
CAA FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM MID-UPR
WAVE...MAXIMIZING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AROUND 12Z SAT.
MEANWHILE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP...AS 1028-1030MB SFC HIGH
CROSSES QUEBEC...AND MOIST UPGLIDE BREAKS OUT ACRS THE REGION.
PRECIP RAMPS UP FROM SW TO NE LATE FRIDAY NGT TO MIDDAY SATURDAY TO
CATEGORICAL. QPF AMOUNTS SHUD BE GENERALLY 0.5" OR LESS. ALTHO...THE
NAM IS A WET OUTLIER...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN
0.5". THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE P-TYPE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ENUF COOL LLVL AIR/THICKNESSES ACRS THE
NC MTNS TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. AS USUAL...THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SNDGS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF A WARM NOSE...AND
THE DEPTH OF A WARM SFC LAYER. GIVEN THE HYBRID CAD WITH GOOD
UPSLOPE AND LLVL CAA...I LEANED TOWARD THE NAM (GOING 2/1 NAM/GFS).
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY A SLEET/SNOW MIX...WITH OCCASIONAL PATCHY ICE
DURING THE ONSET EARLY SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF...I THINK
IT IS REASONABLE FOR THERE TO BE 2-4 INCHES OF A SLEET/SNOW MIX ACRS
THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT ESCARPMENT...POSSIBLY TO THE BLACK MTNS.
FURTHER SOUTH...IT/S MORE UNCERTAIN. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR
IS DEEP ENUF (PER NAM)...ENUF SLEET MAY ACCUM TO MAKE THIS A LOW-END
WARNING EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN NC ESCARPMENT. I USED THE
CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS...WHICH IS THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE WEDGE. TEMPS WILL HOVER IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
DIG ACRS NRN MEXICO AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...THEN
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NGT THRU
WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT POSITION/DEPTH OF THE CLOSED
LOW...AND THE TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC WAVES TO AFFECT OUR CWFA.
GOING WITH A SUPERBLEND OF CONS/WPC/OFFICIAL...THERE IS A LINGERING
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SAT NGT
THRU TUE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. IF THERE ARE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
IN THE MTNS ANY OF THOSE NIGHTS...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RA/DZ...GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION. HOWEVER...I AM NOT
THAT CONFIDENT ON THAT. IT DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH A WEAK
COASTAL LOW TO OUR SE. TUESDAY MAY BE A MORE PLEASANT DAY...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE (IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF ON A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWING A 12Z WEDNESDAY FROPA. THE ECMWF...WITH ITS STRONGER/DEEPER
MID-UPR LOW...HAS VERY STRONG FLOW WITH THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB FLOW
OF 50-60+ KTS ON BOTH THE WAA AND CAA SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SO THERE
MAY BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WX AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP
AROUND DEC 23-24. STILL NEED MORE TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS...BUT
ALREADY HAVE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS DAY 7). TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE MTNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR WITH CIRRUS THICKENING OVERNIGHT...AND
ARRIVAL OF A MIDLEVEL DECK AFTER DAYBREAK. SFC CONDITIONS AND LLVL
PROFILES ARE TOO DRY FOR FOG TO BE A CONCERN AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. THOUGH SOME SITES MAY CONTINUE TO BE SWLY THIS
EVENING...ANY REMAINING WINDS WILL FAVOR N FOR THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT. KAVL MAY REMAIN MIXED AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA THU...BUT WITH BRISK WLY FLOW ALOFT
ANOTHER LEE TROF IS EXPCD TO FORM. THIS WILL LKLY CAUSE SOME
VARIABILITY AT THE PIEDMONT SITES AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY...WITH
WINDS THEN PREVAILING SWLY FOR THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 172347
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STILL WILL
EXPECT CIRRUS TO INCREASE AND BE JOINED BY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON. TEMP TRENDS LOOK GOOD IN LIGHT OF OBS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HRS...AND LATEST GUID CONTINUES TO BACK UP MINS NEAR
CLIMO. 18Z NAM/GFS WERE NOT ANY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF QPF IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY THU...SO I BACKED OFF THE ALREADY LOW-END POPS IN
THE SRN MTNS. HOWEVER I DID KEEP A SCHC FOR THE AFTN FURTHER NORTH
WHERE THE INCOMING S/W TROF WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT. AT THIS
TIME OF DAY EVEN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT
NEARLY ALL RAIN...WITH NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED.

AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DRY 1026MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANT NW FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WITH THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECT
AND WEAK CAA FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT. AREAS OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL SEE
SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MID-DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP
OVER THE TN BORDERLINE AS THE BEST UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MOIST LAYER REMAINS ELEVATED. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE HELP
OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE TN BORDERLINE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES FARTHER NE.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPR WAVE WILL QUICKLY DRIFT EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LLVL FLOW REMAINS
W/NWLY. OTHER THAN LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT QUIET WX CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MTNS...AND MID-UPR
30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY...A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ENTER THE LWR MS
VLY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES (~1030MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACRS THE
CWFA...WITH W/NWLY UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NWLY
CAA FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM MID-UPR
WAVE...MAXIMIZING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AROUND 12Z SAT.
MEANWHILE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP...AS 1028-1030MB SFC HIGH
CROSSES QUEBEC...AND MOIST UPGLIDE BREAKS OUT ACRS THE REGION.
PRECIP RAMPS UP FROM SW TO NE LATE FRIDAY NGT TO MIDDAY SATURDAY TO
CATEGORICAL. QPF AMOUNTS SHUD BE GENERALLY 0.5" OR LESS. ALTHO...THE
NAM IS A WET OUTLIER...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN
0.5". THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE P-TYPE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ENUF COOL LLVL AIR/THICKNESSES ACRS THE
NC MTNS TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. AS USUAL...THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SNDGS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF A WARM NOSE...AND
THE DEPTH OF A WARM SFC LAYER. GIVEN THE HYBRID CAD WITH GOOD
UPSLOPE AND LLVL CAA...I LEANED TOWARD THE NAM (GOING 2/1 NAM/GFS).
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY A SLEET/SNOW MIX...WITH OCCASIONAL PATCHY ICE
DURING THE ONSET EARLY SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF...I THINK
IT IS REASONABLE FOR THERE TO BE 2-4 INCHES OF A SLEET/SNOW MIX ACRS
THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT ESCARPMENT...POSSIBLY TO THE BLACK MTNS.
FURTHER SOUTH...IT/S MORE UNCERTAIN. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR
IS DEEP ENUF (PER NAM)...ENUF SLEET MAY ACCUM TO MAKE THIS A LOW-END
WARNING EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN NC ESCARPMENT. I USED THE
CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS...WHICH IS THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE WEDGE. TEMPS WILL HOVER IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
DIG ACRS NRN MEXICO AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...THEN
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NGT THRU
WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT POSITION/DEPTH OF THE CLOSED
LOW...AND THE TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC WAVES TO AFFECT OUR CWFA.
GOING WITH A SUPERBLEND OF CONS/WPC/OFFICIAL...THERE IS A LINGERING
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SAT NGT
THRU TUE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. IF THERE ARE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
IN THE MTNS ANY OF THOSE NIGHTS...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RA/DZ...GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION. HOWEVER...I AM NOT
THAT CONFIDENT ON THAT. IT DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH A WEAK
COASTAL LOW TO OUR SE. TUESDAY MAY BE A MORE PLEASANT DAY...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE (IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF ON A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWING A 12Z WEDNESDAY FROPA. THE ECMWF...WITH ITS STRONGER/DEEPER
MID-UPR LOW...HAS VERY STRONG FLOW WITH THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB FLOW
OF 50-60+ KTS ON BOTH THE WAA AND CAA SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SO THERE
MAY BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WX AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP
AROUND DEC 23-24. STILL NEED MORE TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS...BUT
ALREADY HAVE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS DAY 7). TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE MTNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR WITH CIRRUS THICKENING OVERNIGHT...AND
ARRIVAL OF A MIDLEVEL DECK AFTER DAYBREAK. SFC CONDITIONS AND LLVL
PROFILES ARE TOO DRY FOR FOG TO BE A CONCERN AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. THOUGH SOME SITES MAY CONTINUE TO BE SWLY THIS
EVENING...ANY REMAINING WINDS WILL FAVOR N FOR THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT. KAVL MAY REMAIN MIXED AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA THU...BUT WITH BRISK WLY FLOW ALOFT
ANOTHER LEE TROF IS EXPCD TO FORM. THIS WILL LKLY CAUSE SOME
VARIABILITY AT THE PIEDMONT SITES AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY...WITH
WINDS THEN PREVAILING SWLY FOR THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS AFFECTING KAVL/KHKY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 172103
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
403 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
400 PM UPDATE...FCST MAINLY ON TRACK BUT SEE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REDUCE SKY COVER LATE THIS AFTN AS MORE WIDESPREAD CIRRUS REMAIN OFF
TO OUR WEST. STILL WILL EXPECT THESE TO SPREAD E ACRS THE AREA BY
EVENING. WILL PUBLISH NEW GRIDS AFTER TOUCHING UP TEMPS WITH 4 PM
OBS.

AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DRY 1026MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANT NW FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WITH THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECT
AND WEAK CAA FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT. AREAS OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL SEE
SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MID-DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP
OVER THE TN BORDERLINE AS THE BEST UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MOIST LAYER REMAINS ELEVATED. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE HELP
OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE TN BORDERLINE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES FARTHER NE.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPR WAVE WILL QUICKLY DRIFT EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LLVL FLOW REMAINS
W/NWLY. OTHER THAN LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT QUIET WX CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MTNS...AND MID-UPR
30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY...A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ENTER THE LWR MS
VLY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES (~1030MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACRS THE
CWFA...WITH W/NWLY UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NWLY
CAA FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM MID-UPR
WAVE...MAXIMIZING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AROUND 12Z SAT.
MEANWHILE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP...AS 1028-1030MB SFC HIGH
CROSSES QUEBEC...AND MOIST UPGLIDE BREAKS OUT ACRS THE REGION.
PRECIP RAMPS UP FROM SW TO NE LATE FRIDAY NGT TO MIDDAY SATURDAY TO
CATEGORICAL. QPF AMOUNTS SHUD BE GENERALLY 0.5" OR LESS. ALTHO...THE
NAM IS A WET OUTLIER...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN
0.5". THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE P-TYPE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ENUF COOL LLVL AIR/THICKNESSES ACRS THE
NC MTNS TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. AS USUAL...THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SNDGS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF A WARM NOSE...AND
THE DEPTH OF A WARM SFC LAYER. GIVEN THE HYBRID CAD WITH GOOD
UPSLOPE AND LLVL CAA...I LEANED TOWARD THE NAM (GOING 2/1 NAM/GFS).
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY A SLEET/SNOW MIX...WITH OCCASIONAL PATCHY ICE
DURING THE ONSET EARLY SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF...I THINK
IT IS REASONABLE FOR THERE TO BE 2-4 INCHES OF A SLEET/SNOW MIX ACRS
THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT ESCARPMENT...POSSIBLY TO THE BLACK MTNS.
FURTHER SOUTH...IT/S MORE UNCERTAIN. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR
IS DEEP ENUF (PER NAM)...ENUF SLEET MAY ACCUM TO MAKE THIS A LOW-END
WARNING EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN NC ESCARPMENT. I USED THE
CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS...WHICH IS THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE WEDGE. TEMPS WILL HOVER IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
DIG ACRS NRN MEXICO AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...THEN
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NGT THRU
WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT POSITION/DEPTH OF THE CLOSED
LOW...AND THE TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC WAVES TO AFFECT OUR CWFA.
GOING WITH A SUPERBLEND OF CONS/WPC/OFFICIAL...THERE IS A LINGERING
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SAT NGT
THRU TUE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. IF THERE ARE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
IN THE MTNS ANY OF THOSE NIGHTS...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RA/DZ...GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION. HOWEVER...I AM NOT
THAT CONFIDENT ON THAT. IT DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH A WEAK
COASTAL LOW TO OUR SE. TUESDAY MAY BE A MORE PLEASANT DAY...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE (IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF ON A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWING A 12Z WEDNESDAY FROPA. THE ECMWF...WITH ITS STRONGER/DEEPER
MID-UPR LOW...HAS VERY STRONG FLOW WITH THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB FLOW
OF 50-60+ KTS ON BOTH THE WAA AND CAA SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SO THERE
MAY BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WX AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP
AROUND DEC 23-24. STILL NEED MORE TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS...BUT
ALREADY HAVE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS DAY 7). TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE MTNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. SW TO NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE AND VEER
OVERNIGHT...ENDING UP NE BY EARLY THU MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KAVL WHERE GUSTY N WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5-7 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE/NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND
KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JOH/WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 172103
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
403 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
400 PM UPDATE...FCST MAINLY ON TRACK BUT SEE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REDUCE SKY COVER LATE THIS AFTN AS MORE WIDESPREAD CIRRUS REMAIN OFF
TO OUR WEST. STILL WILL EXPECT THESE TO SPREAD E ACRS THE AREA BY
EVENING. WILL PUBLISH NEW GRIDS AFTER TOUCHING UP TEMPS WITH 4 PM
OBS.

AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DRY 1026MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANT NW FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WITH THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECT
AND WEAK CAA FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT. AREAS OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL SEE
SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MID-DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP
OVER THE TN BORDERLINE AS THE BEST UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MOIST LAYER REMAINS ELEVATED. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE HELP
OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE TN BORDERLINE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES FARTHER NE.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPR WAVE WILL QUICKLY DRIFT EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LLVL FLOW REMAINS
W/NWLY. OTHER THAN LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT QUIET WX CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MTNS...AND MID-UPR
30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY...A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ENTER THE LWR MS
VLY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES (~1030MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACRS THE
CWFA...WITH W/NWLY UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NWLY
CAA FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM MID-UPR
WAVE...MAXIMIZING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AROUND 12Z SAT.
MEANWHILE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP...AS 1028-1030MB SFC HIGH
CROSSES QUEBEC...AND MOIST UPGLIDE BREAKS OUT ACRS THE REGION.
PRECIP RAMPS UP FROM SW TO NE LATE FRIDAY NGT TO MIDDAY SATURDAY TO
CATEGORICAL. QPF AMOUNTS SHUD BE GENERALLY 0.5" OR LESS. ALTHO...THE
NAM IS A WET OUTLIER...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN
0.5". THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE P-TYPE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ENUF COOL LLVL AIR/THICKNESSES ACRS THE
NC MTNS TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. AS USUAL...THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SNDGS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF A WARM NOSE...AND
THE DEPTH OF A WARM SFC LAYER. GIVEN THE HYBRID CAD WITH GOOD
UPSLOPE AND LLVL CAA...I LEANED TOWARD THE NAM (GOING 2/1 NAM/GFS).
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY A SLEET/SNOW MIX...WITH OCCASIONAL PATCHY ICE
DURING THE ONSET EARLY SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF...I THINK
IT IS REASONABLE FOR THERE TO BE 2-4 INCHES OF A SLEET/SNOW MIX ACRS
THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT ESCARPMENT...POSSIBLY TO THE BLACK MTNS.
FURTHER SOUTH...IT/S MORE UNCERTAIN. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR
IS DEEP ENUF (PER NAM)...ENUF SLEET MAY ACCUM TO MAKE THIS A LOW-END
WARNING EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN NC ESCARPMENT. I USED THE
CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS...WHICH IS THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE WEDGE. TEMPS WILL HOVER IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
DIG ACRS NRN MEXICO AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...THEN
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NGT THRU
WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT POSITION/DEPTH OF THE CLOSED
LOW...AND THE TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC WAVES TO AFFECT OUR CWFA.
GOING WITH A SUPERBLEND OF CONS/WPC/OFFICIAL...THERE IS A LINGERING
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SAT NGT
THRU TUE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. IF THERE ARE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
IN THE MTNS ANY OF THOSE NIGHTS...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RA/DZ...GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION. HOWEVER...I AM NOT
THAT CONFIDENT ON THAT. IT DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH A WEAK
COASTAL LOW TO OUR SE. TUESDAY MAY BE A MORE PLEASANT DAY...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE (IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF ON A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWING A 12Z WEDNESDAY FROPA. THE ECMWF...WITH ITS STRONGER/DEEPER
MID-UPR LOW...HAS VERY STRONG FLOW WITH THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB FLOW
OF 50-60+ KTS ON BOTH THE WAA AND CAA SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SO THERE
MAY BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WX AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP
AROUND DEC 23-24. STILL NEED MORE TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS...BUT
ALREADY HAVE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS DAY 7). TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE MTNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. SW TO NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE AND VEER
OVERNIGHT...ENDING UP NE BY EARLY THU MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KAVL WHERE GUSTY N WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5-7 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE/NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND
KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JOH/WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 172021
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DRY 1026MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANT NW FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WITH THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECT
AND WEAK CAA FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT. AREAS OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL SEE
SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MID-DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP
OVER THE TN BORDERLINE AS THE BEST UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MOIST LAYER REMAINS ELEVATED. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE HELP
OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE TN BORDERLINE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES FARTHER NE.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPR WAVE WILL QUICKLY DRIFT EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LLVL FLOW REMAINS
W/NWLY. OTHER THAN LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT QUIET WX CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MTNS...AND MID-UPR
30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY...A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ENTER THE LWR MS
VLY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES (~1030MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACRS THE
CWFA...WITH W/NWLY UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NWLY
CAA FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM MID-UPR
WAVE...MAXIMIZING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AROUND 12Z SAT.
MEANWHILE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP...AS 1028-1030MB SFC HIGH
CROSSES QUEBEC...AND MOIST UPGLIDE BREAKS OUT ACRS THE REGION.
PRECIP RAMPS UP FROM SW TO NE LATE FRIDAY NGT TO MIDDAY SATURDAY TO
CATEGORICAL. QPF AMOUNTS SHUD BE GENERALLY 0.5" OR LESS. ALTHO...THE
NAM IS A WET OUTLIER...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN
0.5". THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE P-TYPE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ENUF COOL LLVL AIR/THICKNESSES ACRS THE
NC MTNS TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. AS USUAL...THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SNDGS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF A WARM NOSE...AND
THE DEPTH OF A WARM SFC LAYER. GIVEN THE HYBRID CAD WITH GOOD
UPSLOPE AND LLVL CAA...I LEANED TOWARD THE NAM (GOING 2/1 NAM/GFS).
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY A SLEET/SNOW MIX...WITH OCCASIONAL PATCHY ICE
DURING THE ONSET EARLY SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF...I THINK
IT IS REASONABLE FOR THERE TO BE 2-4 INCHES OF A SLEET/SNOW MIX ACRS
THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT ESCARPMENT...POSSIBLY TO THE BLACK MTNS.
FURTHER SOUTH...IT/S MORE UNCERTAIN. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR
IS DEEP ENUF (PER NAM)...ENUF SLEET MAY ACCUM TO MAKE THIS A LOW-END
WARNING EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN NC ESCARPMENT. I USED THE
CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS...WHICH IS THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE WEDGE. TEMPS WILL HOVER IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
DIG ACRS NRN MEXICO AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...THEN
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NGT THRU
WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT POSITION/DEPTH OF THE CLOSED
LOW...AND THE TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC WAVES TO AFFECT OUR CWFA.
GOING WITH A SUPERBLEND OF CONS/WPC/OFFICIAL...THERE IS A LINGERING
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SAT NGT
THRU TUE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. IF THERE ARE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
IN THE MTNS ANY OF THOSE NIGHTS...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RA/DZ...GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION. HOWEVER...I AM NOT
THAT CONFIDENT ON THAT. IT DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH A WEAK
COASTAL LOW TO OUR SE. TUESDAY MAY BE A MORE PLEASANT DAY...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE (IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF ON A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWING A 12Z WEDNESDAY FROPA. THE ECMWF...WITH ITS STRONGER/DEEPER
MID-UPR LOW...HAS VERY STRONG FLOW WITH THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB FLOW
OF 50-60+ KTS ON BOTH THE WAA AND CAA SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SO THERE
MAY BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WX AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP
AROUND DEC 23-24. STILL NEED MORE TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS...BUT
ALREADY HAVE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS DAY 7). TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE MTNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. W/WSW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE VEER TO THE NW BY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE NE BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THU MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL WHERE GUSTY N WINDS OF
15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO
AROUND 5-7 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH
OF THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE/NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND
KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JOH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 172021
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DRY 1026MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANT NW FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WITH THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECT
AND WEAK CAA FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY AROUND 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PIEDMONT. AREAS OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL SEE
SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MID-DAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP
OVER THE TN BORDERLINE AS THE BEST UPPER FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MOIST LAYER REMAINS ELEVATED. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE HELP
OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE TN BORDERLINE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES FARTHER NE.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPR WAVE WILL QUICKLY DRIFT EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LLVL FLOW REMAINS
W/NWLY. OTHER THAN LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT QUIET WX CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MTNS...AND MID-UPR
30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY...A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ENTER THE LWR MS
VLY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES (~1030MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACRS THE
CWFA...WITH W/NWLY UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE TN
BORDER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NWLY
CAA FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM MID-UPR
WAVE...MAXIMIZING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AROUND 12Z SAT.
MEANWHILE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP...AS 1028-1030MB SFC HIGH
CROSSES QUEBEC...AND MOIST UPGLIDE BREAKS OUT ACRS THE REGION.
PRECIP RAMPS UP FROM SW TO NE LATE FRIDAY NGT TO MIDDAY SATURDAY TO
CATEGORICAL. QPF AMOUNTS SHUD BE GENERALLY 0.5" OR LESS. ALTHO...THE
NAM IS A WET OUTLIER...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN
0.5". THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE P-TYPE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ENUF COOL LLVL AIR/THICKNESSES ACRS THE
NC MTNS TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. AS USUAL...THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SNDGS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF A WARM NOSE...AND
THE DEPTH OF A WARM SFC LAYER. GIVEN THE HYBRID CAD WITH GOOD
UPSLOPE AND LLVL CAA...I LEANED TOWARD THE NAM (GOING 2/1 NAM/GFS).
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY A SLEET/SNOW MIX...WITH OCCASIONAL PATCHY ICE
DURING THE ONSET EARLY SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF...I THINK
IT IS REASONABLE FOR THERE TO BE 2-4 INCHES OF A SLEET/SNOW MIX ACRS
THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT ESCARPMENT...POSSIBLY TO THE BLACK MTNS.
FURTHER SOUTH...IT/S MORE UNCERTAIN. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR
IS DEEP ENUF (PER NAM)...ENUF SLEET MAY ACCUM TO MAKE THIS A LOW-END
WARNING EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN NC ESCARPMENT. I USED THE
CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS...WHICH IS THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE WEDGE. TEMPS WILL HOVER IN
THE 30S TO LWR 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
DIG ACRS NRN MEXICO AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...THEN
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SUNDAY NGT THRU
WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT POSITION/DEPTH OF THE CLOSED
LOW...AND THE TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC WAVES TO AFFECT OUR CWFA.
GOING WITH A SUPERBLEND OF CONS/WPC/OFFICIAL...THERE IS A LINGERING
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SAT NGT
THRU TUE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. IF THERE ARE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
IN THE MTNS ANY OF THOSE NIGHTS...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RA/DZ...GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION. HOWEVER...I AM NOT
THAT CONFIDENT ON THAT. IT DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOUDY
HOWEVER...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH A WEAK
COASTAL LOW TO OUR SE. TUESDAY MAY BE A MORE PLEASANT DAY...WITH
SOME SUNSHINE (IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF ON A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
SHOWING A 12Z WEDNESDAY FROPA. THE ECMWF...WITH ITS STRONGER/DEEPER
MID-UPR LOW...HAS VERY STRONG FLOW WITH THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB FLOW
OF 50-60+ KTS ON BOTH THE WAA AND CAA SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SO THERE
MAY BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WX AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP
AROUND DEC 23-24. STILL NEED MORE TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS...BUT
ALREADY HAVE LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS DAY 7). TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY PRECIP...BUT THEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN SNOW IN THE MTNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. W/WSW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE VEER TO THE NW BY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE NE BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THU MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL WHERE GUSTY N WINDS OF
15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO
AROUND 5-7 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH
OF THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE/NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND
KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JOH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 171753
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1253 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM EST UPDATE...HAVE DECREASED THE CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS PER LATEST VISBY SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LATEST RADAR TRENDS REMAIN RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE REGARDING POSSIBLE LIGHT SHRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MTNS.  THUS POP FCST WILL REMAIN AS IS WHICH FEATURES ALL POPS BEING
REMOVED WITH THE HOUR.  LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE MTNS IS STILL
FCST TO SCATTER THROUGH MORNING.  MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...QUASI ZONAL UPPER FLOW MIGRATING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.  MODEST WEST/NORTHWEST
850MB FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL APPS CONTINUES TO YIELD SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY NORTHWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
ALTHOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NC...WEAKER FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT COVERAGE.  LATEST
NAM/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SUGGESTING INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE
ALONG THE TN LINE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BACK OFF.
ALL SAID...WILL KEEP LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS THROUGH 12Z.  FCST DOES FEATURE BRIEF
PERIOD OF FZRA FOR THESE ZONES AS MODEST INVERSION ALOFT SUGGESTS
PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIQUID WITH SOME FREEZING POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING LOWS.  NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE.

BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOMINATING OVER THE LOW TERRAIN.  DID KEEP
MENTION OF MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS
WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AMONGST SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO MOVE OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PERIODS END.  DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
YIELD NORMAL LEVEL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
REGIONS WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE FCST OVER THE MTNS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS ABOVE MENTIONED INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS LIMITS RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT THU. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE OR FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
WHERE WLY FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM OUT OF THE MOISTURE.
THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER. SHORT
WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SW ON FRI. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY
AFTER THE THU NITE CLEARING FROM THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WHILE LOWS THU NITE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND RESULTING P-TYPES. A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRI NITE...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT
AND EAST ON SAT NITE. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE AREA IN A
COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION. PRECIP CHC INCREASES FROM THE SW FRI
NITE AS MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAT POP DEVELOPS
ALL AREAS SAT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH POP SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF SAT NITE AND ENDING ON SUN. THE GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT VERY COLD. USING A BLEND OF THESE TWO
MDLS FOR TEMPS AND THICKNESSES RESULTS IN COLDEST TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE CWFA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE SC BORDER. EVEN THEN...P-TYPE
SEEMS TO FAVOR A WINTRY MIX FOR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND FREEZING RAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THERE. RAIN IS THE P-TYPE FOR MOST OF THE CWFA.
CANNOT RULE OUT ADVISORY LEVEL ICE ACCUMS FOR THE NRN MTN LOCATIONS
LATE FRI NITE AND SAT MORN. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS PRECIP
COMES TO AN END SAT NITE AND SUN MORN...BUT THIS AND ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMS ARE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND
SAT NITES...WITH HIGHS SAT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RISING TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. A DEEP
TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER WITH THE TROF THAN THE GFS. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF ON MON...WHILE
THE ECMWF DAMPENS THE WAVE SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THE SFC...THE GFS HAS A
WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
FLORIDA AND MOVES IN INTO THE ATLANTIC...KEEPING OUR CWFA RELATIVELY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A LESS DEFINED SFC LOW...BUT A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOSER TO THE CWFA SPREADING PRECIP IN FROM THE
SOUTH. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE KEPT MON BASICALLY DRY WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

PRECIP SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DETAILS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND THERMAL STRUCTURE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POP SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST TUE. AGAIN...
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...USED RAIN/SNOW FOR THE P-TYPE WHICH WOULD
INDICATE SOME SNOW AT ONSET ACROSS THE NC MTNS...BUT THIS IS ALSO
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. TEMPS TUE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. W/WSW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE VEER TO THE NW BY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE NE BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THU MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL WHERE GUSTY N WINDS OF
15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO
AROUND 5-7 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH
OF THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE/NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND
KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 171753
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1253 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM EST UPDATE...HAVE DECREASED THE CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS PER LATEST VISBY SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LATEST RADAR TRENDS REMAIN RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE REGARDING POSSIBLE LIGHT SHRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MTNS.  THUS POP FCST WILL REMAIN AS IS WHICH FEATURES ALL POPS BEING
REMOVED WITH THE HOUR.  LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE MTNS IS STILL
FCST TO SCATTER THROUGH MORNING.  MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...QUASI ZONAL UPPER FLOW MIGRATING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.  MODEST WEST/NORTHWEST
850MB FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL APPS CONTINUES TO YIELD SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY NORTHWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
ALTHOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NC...WEAKER FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT COVERAGE.  LATEST
NAM/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SUGGESTING INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE
ALONG THE TN LINE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BACK OFF.
ALL SAID...WILL KEEP LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS THROUGH 12Z.  FCST DOES FEATURE BRIEF
PERIOD OF FZRA FOR THESE ZONES AS MODEST INVERSION ALOFT SUGGESTS
PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIQUID WITH SOME FREEZING POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING LOWS.  NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE.

BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOMINATING OVER THE LOW TERRAIN.  DID KEEP
MENTION OF MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS
WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AMONGST SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO MOVE OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PERIODS END.  DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
YIELD NORMAL LEVEL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
REGIONS WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE FCST OVER THE MTNS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS ABOVE MENTIONED INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS LIMITS RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT THU. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE OR FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
WHERE WLY FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM OUT OF THE MOISTURE.
THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER. SHORT
WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SW ON FRI. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY
AFTER THE THU NITE CLEARING FROM THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WHILE LOWS THU NITE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND RESULTING P-TYPES. A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRI NITE...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT
AND EAST ON SAT NITE. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE AREA IN A
COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION. PRECIP CHC INCREASES FROM THE SW FRI
NITE AS MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAT POP DEVELOPS
ALL AREAS SAT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH POP SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF SAT NITE AND ENDING ON SUN. THE GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT VERY COLD. USING A BLEND OF THESE TWO
MDLS FOR TEMPS AND THICKNESSES RESULTS IN COLDEST TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE CWFA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE SC BORDER. EVEN THEN...P-TYPE
SEEMS TO FAVOR A WINTRY MIX FOR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND FREEZING RAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THERE. RAIN IS THE P-TYPE FOR MOST OF THE CWFA.
CANNOT RULE OUT ADVISORY LEVEL ICE ACCUMS FOR THE NRN MTN LOCATIONS
LATE FRI NITE AND SAT MORN. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS PRECIP
COMES TO AN END SAT NITE AND SUN MORN...BUT THIS AND ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMS ARE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND
SAT NITES...WITH HIGHS SAT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RISING TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. A DEEP
TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER WITH THE TROF THAN THE GFS. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF ON MON...WHILE
THE ECMWF DAMPENS THE WAVE SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THE SFC...THE GFS HAS A
WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
FLORIDA AND MOVES IN INTO THE ATLANTIC...KEEPING OUR CWFA RELATIVELY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A LESS DEFINED SFC LOW...BUT A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOSER TO THE CWFA SPREADING PRECIP IN FROM THE
SOUTH. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE KEPT MON BASICALLY DRY WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

PRECIP SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DETAILS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND THERMAL STRUCTURE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POP SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST TUE. AGAIN...
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...USED RAIN/SNOW FOR THE P-TYPE WHICH WOULD
INDICATE SOME SNOW AT ONSET ACROSS THE NC MTNS...BUT THIS IS ALSO
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. TEMPS TUE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. W/WSW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE VEER TO THE NW BY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE NE BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THU MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL WHERE GUSTY N WINDS OF
15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO
AROUND 5-7 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH
OF THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE/NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND
KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 171436
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
936 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM EST UPDATE...HAVE DECREASED THE CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS PER LATEST VISBY SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LATEST RADAR TRENDS REMAIN RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE REGARDING POSSIBLE LIGHT SHRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MTNS.  THUS POP FCST WILL REMAIN AS IS WHICH FEATURES ALL POPS BEING
REMOVED WITH THE HOUR.  LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE MTNS IS STILL
FCST TO SCATTER THROUGH MORNING.  MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...QUASI ZONAL UPPER FLOW MIGRATING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.  MODEST WEST/NORTHWEST
850MB FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL APPS CONTINUES TO YIELD SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY NORTHWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
ALTHOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NC...WEAKER FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT COVERAGE.  LATEST
NAM/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SUGGESTING INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE
ALONG THE TN LINE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BACK OFF.
ALL SAID...WILL KEEP LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS THROUGH 12Z.  FCST DOES FEATURE BRIEF
PERIOD OF FZRA FOR THESE ZONES AS MODEST INVERSION ALOFT SUGGESTS
PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIQUID WITH SOME FREEZING POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING LOWS.  NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE.

BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOMINATING OVER THE LOW TERRAIN.  DID KEEP
MENTION OF MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS
WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AMONGST SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO MOVE OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PERIODS END.  DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
YIELD NORMAL LEVEL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
REGIONS WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE FCST OVER THE MTNS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS ABOVE MENTIONED INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS LIMITS RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT THU. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE OR FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
WHERE WLY FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM OUT OF THE MOISTURE.
THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER. SHORT
WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SW ON FRI. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY
AFTER THE THU NITE CLEARING FROM THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WHILE LOWS THU NITE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND RESULTING P-TYPES. A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRI NITE...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT
AND EAST ON SAT NITE. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE AREA IN A
COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION. PRECIP CHC INCREASES FROM THE SW FRI
NITE AS MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAT POP DEVELOPS
ALL AREAS SAT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH POP SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF SAT NITE AND ENDING ON SUN. THE GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT VERY COLD. USING A BLEND OF THESE TWO
MDLS FOR TEMPS AND THICKNESSES RESULTS IN COLDEST TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE CWFA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE SC BORDER. EVEN THEN...P-TYPE
SEEMS TO FAVOR A WINTRY MIX FOR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND FREEZING RAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THERE. RAIN IS THE P-TYPE FOR MOST OF THE CWFA.
CANNOT RULE OUT ADVISORY LEVEL ICE ACCUMS FOR THE NRN MTN LOCATIONS
LATE FRI NITE AND SAT MORN. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS PRECIP
COMES TO AN END SAT NITE AND SUN MORN...BUT THIS AND ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMS ARE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND
SAT NITES...WITH HIGHS SAT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RISING TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. A DEEP
TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER WITH THE TROF THAN THE GFS. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF ON MON...WHILE
THE ECMWF DAMPENS THE WAVE SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THE SFC...THE GFS HAS A
WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
FLORIDA AND MOVES IN INTO THE ATLANTIC...KEEPING OUR CWFA RELATIVELY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A LESS DEFINED SFC LOW...BUT A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOSER TO THE CWFA SPREADING PRECIP IN FROM THE
SOUTH. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE KEPT MON BASICALLY DRY WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

PRECIP SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DETAILS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND THERMAL STRUCTURE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POP SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST TUE. AGAIN...
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...USED RAIN/SNOW FOR THE P-TYPE WHICH WOULD
INDICATE SOME SNOW AT ONSET ACROSS THE NC MTNS...BUT THIS IS ALSO
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. TEMPS TUE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
THROUGH MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING CAUSING FLOW TO BACK
NEARLY DUE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  KEPT WINDS JUST NORTH OF
WEST UNTIL 02Z WHEN CALMING PREVAILS. SKIES WILL SLOWLY FILL IN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AS CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
UPSTREAM MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER WAVE.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL
SITES.  SURFACE WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO LEE TROF
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING.  ALL SC SITES WILL BE LIGHT/CALM BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE SW BY MID MORNING.  AS FOR THE NC SITES...KAVL
WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AT   8-10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KHKY
GRADUALLY BACKING WESTERLY BY MID/LATE MORNING DUE TO ABOVE
MENTIONED LEE TROF.  FLOW WILL VEER NORTHERLY AT ALL SITES LATE IN
THE DAY WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN ALOFT LEADING TO
CIGS AT KAVL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE/NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND
KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 171436
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
936 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM EST UPDATE...HAVE DECREASED THE CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS PER LATEST VISBY SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LATEST RADAR TRENDS REMAIN RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE REGARDING POSSIBLE LIGHT SHRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MTNS.  THUS POP FCST WILL REMAIN AS IS WHICH FEATURES ALL POPS BEING
REMOVED WITH THE HOUR.  LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE MTNS IS STILL
FCST TO SCATTER THROUGH MORNING.  MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...QUASI ZONAL UPPER FLOW MIGRATING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.  MODEST WEST/NORTHWEST
850MB FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL APPS CONTINUES TO YIELD SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY NORTHWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
ALTHOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NC...WEAKER FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT COVERAGE.  LATEST
NAM/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SUGGESTING INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE
ALONG THE TN LINE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BACK OFF.
ALL SAID...WILL KEEP LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS THROUGH 12Z.  FCST DOES FEATURE BRIEF
PERIOD OF FZRA FOR THESE ZONES AS MODEST INVERSION ALOFT SUGGESTS
PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIQUID WITH SOME FREEZING POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING LOWS.  NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE.

BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOMINATING OVER THE LOW TERRAIN.  DID KEEP
MENTION OF MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS
WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AMONGST SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO MOVE OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PERIODS END.  DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
YIELD NORMAL LEVEL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
REGIONS WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE FCST OVER THE MTNS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS ABOVE MENTIONED INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS LIMITS RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT THU. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE OR FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
WHERE WLY FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM OUT OF THE MOISTURE.
THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER. SHORT
WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SW ON FRI. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY
AFTER THE THU NITE CLEARING FROM THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WHILE LOWS THU NITE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND RESULTING P-TYPES. A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRI NITE...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT
AND EAST ON SAT NITE. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE AREA IN A
COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION. PRECIP CHC INCREASES FROM THE SW FRI
NITE AS MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAT POP DEVELOPS
ALL AREAS SAT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH POP SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF SAT NITE AND ENDING ON SUN. THE GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT VERY COLD. USING A BLEND OF THESE TWO
MDLS FOR TEMPS AND THICKNESSES RESULTS IN COLDEST TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE CWFA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE SC BORDER. EVEN THEN...P-TYPE
SEEMS TO FAVOR A WINTRY MIX FOR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND FREEZING RAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THERE. RAIN IS THE P-TYPE FOR MOST OF THE CWFA.
CANNOT RULE OUT ADVISORY LEVEL ICE ACCUMS FOR THE NRN MTN LOCATIONS
LATE FRI NITE AND SAT MORN. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS PRECIP
COMES TO AN END SAT NITE AND SUN MORN...BUT THIS AND ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMS ARE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND
SAT NITES...WITH HIGHS SAT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RISING TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. A DEEP
TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER WITH THE TROF THAN THE GFS. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF ON MON...WHILE
THE ECMWF DAMPENS THE WAVE SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THE SFC...THE GFS HAS A
WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
FLORIDA AND MOVES IN INTO THE ATLANTIC...KEEPING OUR CWFA RELATIVELY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A LESS DEFINED SFC LOW...BUT A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOSER TO THE CWFA SPREADING PRECIP IN FROM THE
SOUTH. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE KEPT MON BASICALLY DRY WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

PRECIP SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DETAILS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND THERMAL STRUCTURE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POP SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST TUE. AGAIN...
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...USED RAIN/SNOW FOR THE P-TYPE WHICH WOULD
INDICATE SOME SNOW AT ONSET ACROSS THE NC MTNS...BUT THIS IS ALSO
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. TEMPS TUE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
THROUGH MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING CAUSING FLOW TO BACK
NEARLY DUE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  KEPT WINDS JUST NORTH OF
WEST UNTIL 02Z WHEN CALMING PREVAILS. SKIES WILL SLOWLY FILL IN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AS CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
UPSTREAM MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER WAVE.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL
SITES.  SURFACE WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO LEE TROF
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING.  ALL SC SITES WILL BE LIGHT/CALM BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE SW BY MID MORNING.  AS FOR THE NC SITES...KAVL
WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AT   8-10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KHKY
GRADUALLY BACKING WESTERLY BY MID/LATE MORNING DUE TO ABOVE
MENTIONED LEE TROF.  FLOW WILL VEER NORTHERLY AT ALL SITES LATE IN
THE DAY WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN ALOFT LEADING TO
CIGS AT KAVL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE/NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND
KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 171122
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
622 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LATEST RADAR TRENDS REMAIN RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE REGARDING POSSIBLE LIGHT SHRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.
THUS POP FCST WILL REMAIN AS IS WHICH FEATURES ALL POPS BEING
REMOVED WITH THE HOUR.  LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE MTNS IS STILL
FCST TO SCATTER THROUGH MORNING.  MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...QUASI ZONAL UPPER FLOW MIGRATING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.  MODEST WEST/NORTHWEST
850MB FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL APPS CONTINUES TO YIELD SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY NORTHWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
ALTHOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NC...WEAKER FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT COVERAGE.  LATEST
NAM/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SUGGESTING INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE
ALONG THE TN LINE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BACK OFF.
ALL SAID...WILL KEEP LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS THROUGH 12Z.  FCST DOES FEATURE BRIEF
PERIOD OF FZRA FOR THESE ZONES AS MODEST INVERSION ALOFT SUGGESTS
PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIQUID WITH SOME FREEZING POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING LOWS.  NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE.

BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOMINATING OVER THE LOW TERRAIN.  DID KEEP
MENTION OF MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS
WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AMONGST SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO MOVE OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PERIODS END.  DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
YIELD NORMAL LEVEL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
REGIONS WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE FCST OVER THE MTNS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS ABOVE MENTIONED INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS LIMITS RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT THU. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE OR FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
WHERE WLY FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM OUT OF THE MOISTURE.
THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER. SHORT
WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SW ON FRI. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY
AFTER THE THU NITE CLEARING FROM THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WHILE LOWS THU NITE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND RESULTING P-TYPES. A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRI NITE...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT
AND EAST ON SAT NITE. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE AREA IN A
COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION. PRECIP CHC INCREASES FROM THE SW FRI
NITE AS MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAT POP DEVELOPS
ALL AREAS SAT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH POP SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF SAT NITE AND ENDING ON SUN. THE GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT VERY COLD. USING A BLEND OF THESE TWO
MDLS FOR TEMPS AND THICKNESSES RESULTS IN COLDEST TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE CWFA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE SC BORDER. EVEN THEN...P-TYPE
SEEMS TO FAVOR A WINTRY MIX FOR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND FREEZING RAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THERE. RAIN IS THE P-TYPE FOR MOST OF THE CWFA.
CANNOT RULE OUT ADVISORY LEVEL ICE ACCUMS FOR THE NRN MTN LOCATIONS
LATE FRI NITE AND SAT MORN. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS PRECIP
COMES TO AN END SAT NITE AND SUN MORN...BUT THIS AND ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMS ARE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND
SAT NITES...WITH HIGHS SAT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RISING TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. A DEEP
TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER WITH THE TROF THAN THE GFS. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF ON MON...WHILE
THE ECMWF DAMPENS THE WAVE SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THE SFC...THE GFS HAS A
WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
FLORIDA AND MOVES IN INTO THE ATLANTIC...KEEPING OUR CWFA RELATIVELY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A LESS DEFINED SFC LOW...BUT A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOSER TO THE CWFA SPREADING PRECIP IN FROM THE
SOUTH. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE KEPT MON BASICALLY DRY WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

PRECIP SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DETAILS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND THERMAL STRUCTURE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POP SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST TUE. AGAIN...
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...USED RAIN/SNOW FOR THE P-TYPE WHICH WOULD
INDICATE SOME SNOW AT ONSET ACROSS THE NC MTNS...BUT THIS IS ALSO
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. TEMPS TUE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
THROUGH MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING CAUSING FLOW TO BACK
NEARLY DUE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  KEPT WINDS JUST NORTH OF
WEST UNTIL 02Z WHEN CALMING PREVAILS. SKIES WILL SLOWLY FILL IN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AS CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
UPSTREAM MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER WAVE.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL
SITES.  SURFACE WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO LEE TROF
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING.  ALL SC SITES WILL BE LIGHT/CALM BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE SW BY MID MORNING.  AS FOR THE NC SITES...KAVL
WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AT   8-10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KHKY
GRADUALLY BACKING WESTERLY BY MID/LATE MORNING DUE TO ABOVE
MENTIONED LEE TROF.  FLOW WILL VEER NORTHERLY AT ALL SITES LATE IN
THE DAY WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN ALOFT LEADING TO
CIGS AT KAVL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE/NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND
KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 171122
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
622 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LATEST RADAR TRENDS REMAIN RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE REGARDING POSSIBLE LIGHT SHRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.
THUS POP FCST WILL REMAIN AS IS WHICH FEATURES ALL POPS BEING
REMOVED WITH THE HOUR.  LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE MTNS IS STILL
FCST TO SCATTER THROUGH MORNING.  MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...QUASI ZONAL UPPER FLOW MIGRATING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.  MODEST WEST/NORTHWEST
850MB FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL APPS CONTINUES TO YIELD SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY NORTHWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
ALTHOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NC...WEAKER FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT COVERAGE.  LATEST
NAM/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SUGGESTING INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE
ALONG THE TN LINE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BACK OFF.
ALL SAID...WILL KEEP LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS THROUGH 12Z.  FCST DOES FEATURE BRIEF
PERIOD OF FZRA FOR THESE ZONES AS MODEST INVERSION ALOFT SUGGESTS
PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIQUID WITH SOME FREEZING POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING LOWS.  NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE.

BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOMINATING OVER THE LOW TERRAIN.  DID KEEP
MENTION OF MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS
WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AMONGST SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO MOVE OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PERIODS END.  DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
YIELD NORMAL LEVEL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
REGIONS WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE FCST OVER THE MTNS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS ABOVE MENTIONED INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS LIMITS RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT THU. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE OR FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
WHERE WLY FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM OUT OF THE MOISTURE.
THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER. SHORT
WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SW ON FRI. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY
AFTER THE THU NITE CLEARING FROM THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WHILE LOWS THU NITE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND RESULTING P-TYPES. A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRI NITE...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT
AND EAST ON SAT NITE. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE AREA IN A
COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION. PRECIP CHC INCREASES FROM THE SW FRI
NITE AS MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAT POP DEVELOPS
ALL AREAS SAT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH POP SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF SAT NITE AND ENDING ON SUN. THE GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT VERY COLD. USING A BLEND OF THESE TWO
MDLS FOR TEMPS AND THICKNESSES RESULTS IN COLDEST TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE CWFA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE SC BORDER. EVEN THEN...P-TYPE
SEEMS TO FAVOR A WINTRY MIX FOR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND FREEZING RAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THERE. RAIN IS THE P-TYPE FOR MOST OF THE CWFA.
CANNOT RULE OUT ADVISORY LEVEL ICE ACCUMS FOR THE NRN MTN LOCATIONS
LATE FRI NITE AND SAT MORN. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS PRECIP
COMES TO AN END SAT NITE AND SUN MORN...BUT THIS AND ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMS ARE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND
SAT NITES...WITH HIGHS SAT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RISING TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. A DEEP
TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER WITH THE TROF THAN THE GFS. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF ON MON...WHILE
THE ECMWF DAMPENS THE WAVE SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THE SFC...THE GFS HAS A
WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
FLORIDA AND MOVES IN INTO THE ATLANTIC...KEEPING OUR CWFA RELATIVELY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A LESS DEFINED SFC LOW...BUT A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOSER TO THE CWFA SPREADING PRECIP IN FROM THE
SOUTH. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE KEPT MON BASICALLY DRY WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

PRECIP SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DETAILS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND THERMAL STRUCTURE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POP SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST TUE. AGAIN...
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...USED RAIN/SNOW FOR THE P-TYPE WHICH WOULD
INDICATE SOME SNOW AT ONSET ACROSS THE NC MTNS...BUT THIS IS ALSO
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. TEMPS TUE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
THROUGH MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.  MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING CAUSING FLOW TO BACK
NEARLY DUE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  KEPT WINDS JUST NORTH OF
WEST UNTIL 02Z WHEN CALMING PREVAILS. SKIES WILL SLOWLY FILL IN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AS CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM
UPSTREAM MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER WAVE.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL
SITES.  SURFACE WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO LEE TROF
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING.  ALL SC SITES WILL BE LIGHT/CALM BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE SW BY MID MORNING.  AS FOR THE NC SITES...KAVL
WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AT   8-10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KHKY
GRADUALLY BACKING WESTERLY BY MID/LATE MORNING DUE TO ABOVE
MENTIONED LEE TROF.  FLOW WILL VEER NORTHERLY AT ALL SITES LATE IN
THE DAY WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN ALOFT LEADING TO
CIGS AT KAVL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE/NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND
KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 170900
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...QUASI ZONAL UPPER FLOW MIGRATING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.  MODEST WEST/NORTHWEST
850MB FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL APPS CONTINUES TO YIELD SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY NORTHWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
ALTHOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NC...WEAKER FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT COVERAGE.  LATEST
NAM/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SUGGESTING INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE
ALONG THE TN LINE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BACK OFF.
ALL SAID...WILL KEEP LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS THROUGH 12Z.  FCST DOES FEATURE BRIEF
PERIOD OF FZRA FOR THESE ZONES AS MODEST INVERSION ALOFT SUGGESTS
PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIQUID WITH SOME FREEZING POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING LOWS.  NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE.

BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOMINATING OVER THE LOW TERRAIN.  DID KEEP
MENTION OF MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS
WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AMONGST SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO MOVE OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PERIODS END.  DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
YIELD NORMAL LEVEL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
REGIONS WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE FCST OVER THE MTNS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS ABOVE MENTIONED INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS LIMITS RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT THU. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE OR FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
WHERE WLY FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM OUT OF THE MOISTURE.
THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER. SHORT
WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SW ON FRI. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY
AFTER THE THU NITE CLEARING FROM THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WHILE LOWS THU NITE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND RESULTING P-TYPES. A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRI NITE...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT
AND EAST ON SAT NITE. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE AREA IN A
COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION. PRECIP CHC INCREASES FROM THE SW FRI
NITE AS MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAT POP DEVELOPS
ALL AREAS SAT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH POP SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF SAT NITE AND ENDING ON SUN. THE GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT VERY COLD. USING A BLEND OF THESE TWO
MDLS FOR TEMPS AND THICKNESSES RESULTS IN COLDEST TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE CWFA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE SC BORDER. EVEN THEN...P-TYPE
SEEMS TO FAVOR A WINTRY MIX FOR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND FREEZING RAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THERE. RAIN IS THE P-TYPE FOR MOST OF THE CWFA.
CANNOT RULE OUT ADVISORY LEVEL ICE ACCUMS FOR THE NRN MTN LOCATIONS
LATE FRI NITE AND SAT MORN. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS PRECIP
COMES TO AN END SAT NITE AND SUN MORN...BUT THIS AND ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMS ARE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND
SAT NITES...WITH HIGHS SAT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RISING TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. A DEEP
TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER WITH THE TROF THAN THE GFS. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF ON MON...WHILE
THE ECMWF DAMPENS THE WAVE SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THE SFC...THE GFS HAS A
WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
FLORIDA AND MOVES IN INTO THE ATLANTIC...KEEPING OUR CWFA RELATIVELY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A LESS DEFINED SFC LOW...BUT A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOSER TO THE CWFA SPREADING PRECIP IN FROM THE
SOUTH. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE KEPT MON BASICALLY DRY WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

PRECIP SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DETAILS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND THERMAL STRUCTURE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POP SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST TUE. AGAIN...
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...USED RAIN/SNOW FOR THE P-TYPE WHICH WOULD
INDICATE SOME SNOW AT ONSET ACROSS THE NC MTNS...BUT THIS IS ALSO
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. TEMPS TUE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AMIDST WNW FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  MODELS HINT AT WEAK LEE TROF
DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING ALLOWING FLOW TO BACK ALMOST DUE WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  KEPT WINDS JUST NORTH OF WEST UNTIL 02Z WHEN
FLOW VEERS NORTHERLY.  EITHER WAY...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 5KTS.  SKIES WILL INCREASE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AS CIRRUS
STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM UPSTREAM MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
UPPER WAVE.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL
SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS BEING AT KAVL AND KHKY. ALL TAFS
INITIALIZE VFR WITH MVFR TEMPOS AT KAVL FOR MVFR LEVEL CIGS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE TN LINE...AND ALSO AT KHKY WHERE GUIDANCE
FAVORS LIGHT PATCHY BR RESTRICTIONS.  OTHERWISE...SOLIDLY VFR WITH
FLOW REMAINING LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH MORNING BEFORE LEE TROF
BACKS FLOW WESTERLY DURING THE DAY.  FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN VEER
NORTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE/NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND
KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 170900
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...QUASI ZONAL UPPER FLOW MIGRATING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.  MODEST WEST/NORTHWEST
850MB FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL APPS CONTINUES TO YIELD SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY NORTHWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
ALTHOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NC...WEAKER FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT COVERAGE.  LATEST
NAM/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SUGGESTING INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE
ALONG THE TN LINE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BACK OFF.
ALL SAID...WILL KEEP LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS THROUGH 12Z.  FCST DOES FEATURE BRIEF
PERIOD OF FZRA FOR THESE ZONES AS MODEST INVERSION ALOFT SUGGESTS
PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIQUID WITH SOME FREEZING POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING LOWS.  NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE.

BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOMINATING OVER THE LOW TERRAIN.  DID KEEP
MENTION OF MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS
WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AMONGST SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO MOVE OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PERIODS END.  DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
YIELD NORMAL LEVEL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
REGIONS WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE FCST OVER THE MTNS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS ABOVE MENTIONED INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS LIMITS RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT THU. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE OR FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
WHERE WLY FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM OUT OF THE MOISTURE.
THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER. SHORT
WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SW ON FRI. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY
AFTER THE THU NITE CLEARING FROM THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WHILE LOWS THU NITE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND RESULTING P-TYPES. A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRI NITE...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT
AND EAST ON SAT NITE. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE AREA IN A
COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION. PRECIP CHC INCREASES FROM THE SW FRI
NITE AS MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAT POP DEVELOPS
ALL AREAS SAT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH POP SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF SAT NITE AND ENDING ON SUN. THE GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT VERY COLD. USING A BLEND OF THESE TWO
MDLS FOR TEMPS AND THICKNESSES RESULTS IN COLDEST TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE CWFA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE SC BORDER. EVEN THEN...P-TYPE
SEEMS TO FAVOR A WINTRY MIX FOR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND FREEZING RAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THERE. RAIN IS THE P-TYPE FOR MOST OF THE CWFA.
CANNOT RULE OUT ADVISORY LEVEL ICE ACCUMS FOR THE NRN MTN LOCATIONS
LATE FRI NITE AND SAT MORN. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS PRECIP
COMES TO AN END SAT NITE AND SUN MORN...BUT THIS AND ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMS ARE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND
SAT NITES...WITH HIGHS SAT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RISING TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. A DEEP
TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER WITH THE TROF THAN THE GFS. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF ON MON...WHILE
THE ECMWF DAMPENS THE WAVE SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THE SFC...THE GFS HAS A
WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
FLORIDA AND MOVES IN INTO THE ATLANTIC...KEEPING OUR CWFA RELATIVELY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A LESS DEFINED SFC LOW...BUT A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOSER TO THE CWFA SPREADING PRECIP IN FROM THE
SOUTH. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE KEPT MON BASICALLY DRY WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

PRECIP SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DETAILS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND THERMAL STRUCTURE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POP SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST TUE. AGAIN...
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...USED RAIN/SNOW FOR THE P-TYPE WHICH WOULD
INDICATE SOME SNOW AT ONSET ACROSS THE NC MTNS...BUT THIS IS ALSO
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. TEMPS TUE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AMIDST WNW FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  MODELS HINT AT WEAK LEE TROF
DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING ALLOWING FLOW TO BACK ALMOST DUE WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  KEPT WINDS JUST NORTH OF WEST UNTIL 02Z WHEN
FLOW VEERS NORTHERLY.  EITHER WAY...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 5KTS.  SKIES WILL INCREASE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AS CIRRUS
STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM UPSTREAM MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
UPPER WAVE.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL
SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS BEING AT KAVL AND KHKY. ALL TAFS
INITIALIZE VFR WITH MVFR TEMPOS AT KAVL FOR MVFR LEVEL CIGS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE TN LINE...AND ALSO AT KHKY WHERE GUIDANCE
FAVORS LIGHT PATCHY BR RESTRICTIONS.  OTHERWISE...SOLIDLY VFR WITH
FLOW REMAINING LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH MORNING BEFORE LEE TROF
BACKS FLOW WESTERLY DURING THE DAY.  FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN VEER
NORTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE/NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND
KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 170900
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...QUASI ZONAL UPPER FLOW MIGRATING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.  MODEST WEST/NORTHWEST
850MB FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL APPS CONTINUES TO YIELD SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY NORTHWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
ALTHOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NC...WEAKER FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT COVERAGE.  LATEST
NAM/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SUGGESTING INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE
ALONG THE TN LINE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BACK OFF.
ALL SAID...WILL KEEP LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS THROUGH 12Z.  FCST DOES FEATURE BRIEF
PERIOD OF FZRA FOR THESE ZONES AS MODEST INVERSION ALOFT SUGGESTS
PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIQUID WITH SOME FREEZING POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING LOWS.  NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE.

BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOMINATING OVER THE LOW TERRAIN.  DID KEEP
MENTION OF MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS
WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AMONGST SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO MOVE OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PERIODS END.  DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
YIELD NORMAL LEVEL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
REGIONS WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE FCST OVER THE MTNS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS ABOVE MENTIONED INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS LIMITS RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT THU. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE OR FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
WHERE WLY FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM OUT OF THE MOISTURE.
THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER. SHORT
WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SW ON FRI. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY
AFTER THE THU NITE CLEARING FROM THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WHILE LOWS THU NITE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND RESULTING P-TYPES. A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRI NITE...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT
AND EAST ON SAT NITE. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE AREA IN A
COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION. PRECIP CHC INCREASES FROM THE SW FRI
NITE AS MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAT POP DEVELOPS
ALL AREAS SAT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH POP SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF SAT NITE AND ENDING ON SUN. THE GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT VERY COLD. USING A BLEND OF THESE TWO
MDLS FOR TEMPS AND THICKNESSES RESULTS IN COLDEST TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE CWFA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE SC BORDER. EVEN THEN...P-TYPE
SEEMS TO FAVOR A WINTRY MIX FOR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND FREEZING RAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THERE. RAIN IS THE P-TYPE FOR MOST OF THE CWFA.
CANNOT RULE OUT ADVISORY LEVEL ICE ACCUMS FOR THE NRN MTN LOCATIONS
LATE FRI NITE AND SAT MORN. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS PRECIP
COMES TO AN END SAT NITE AND SUN MORN...BUT THIS AND ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMS ARE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND
SAT NITES...WITH HIGHS SAT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RISING TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. A DEEP
TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER WITH THE TROF THAN THE GFS. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF ON MON...WHILE
THE ECMWF DAMPENS THE WAVE SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THE SFC...THE GFS HAS A
WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
FLORIDA AND MOVES IN INTO THE ATLANTIC...KEEPING OUR CWFA RELATIVELY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A LESS DEFINED SFC LOW...BUT A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOSER TO THE CWFA SPREADING PRECIP IN FROM THE
SOUTH. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE KEPT MON BASICALLY DRY WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

PRECIP SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DETAILS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND THERMAL STRUCTURE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POP SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST TUE. AGAIN...
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...USED RAIN/SNOW FOR THE P-TYPE WHICH WOULD
INDICATE SOME SNOW AT ONSET ACROSS THE NC MTNS...BUT THIS IS ALSO
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. TEMPS TUE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AMIDST WNW FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  MODELS HINT AT WEAK LEE TROF
DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING ALLOWING FLOW TO BACK ALMOST DUE WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  KEPT WINDS JUST NORTH OF WEST UNTIL 02Z WHEN
FLOW VEERS NORTHERLY.  EITHER WAY...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 5KTS.  SKIES WILL INCREASE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AS CIRRUS
STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM UPSTREAM MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
UPPER WAVE.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL
SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS BEING AT KAVL AND KHKY. ALL TAFS
INITIALIZE VFR WITH MVFR TEMPOS AT KAVL FOR MVFR LEVEL CIGS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE TN LINE...AND ALSO AT KHKY WHERE GUIDANCE
FAVORS LIGHT PATCHY BR RESTRICTIONS.  OTHERWISE...SOLIDLY VFR WITH
FLOW REMAINING LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH MORNING BEFORE LEE TROF
BACKS FLOW WESTERLY DURING THE DAY.  FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN VEER
NORTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE/NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND
KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 170900
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...QUASI ZONAL UPPER FLOW MIGRATING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.  MODEST WEST/NORTHWEST
850MB FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL APPS CONTINUES TO YIELD SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY NORTHWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
ALTHOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NC...WEAKER FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT COVERAGE.  LATEST
NAM/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SUGGESTING INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE
ALONG THE TN LINE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH MID MORNING.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BACK OFF.
ALL SAID...WILL KEEP LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS THROUGH 12Z.  FCST DOES FEATURE BRIEF
PERIOD OF FZRA FOR THESE ZONES AS MODEST INVERSION ALOFT SUGGESTS
PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIQUID WITH SOME FREEZING POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING LOWS.  NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE.

BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOMINATING OVER THE LOW TERRAIN.  DID KEEP
MENTION OF MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS
WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AMONGST SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO MOVE OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PERIODS END.  DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
YIELD NORMAL LEVEL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT
REGIONS WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE FCST OVER THE MTNS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS ABOVE MENTIONED INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS LIMITS RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT THU. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE OR FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NC MTNS
WHERE WLY FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM OUT OF THE MOISTURE.
THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER. SHORT
WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SW ON FRI. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY
AFTER THE THU NITE CLEARING FROM THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WHILE LOWS THU NITE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND RESULTING P-TYPES. A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRI NITE...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT
AND EAST ON SAT NITE. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE AREA IN A
COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION. PRECIP CHC INCREASES FROM THE SW FRI
NITE AS MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAT POP DEVELOPS
ALL AREAS SAT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH POP SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF SAT NITE AND ENDING ON SUN. THE GFS IS WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT VERY COLD. USING A BLEND OF THESE TWO
MDLS FOR TEMPS AND THICKNESSES RESULTS IN COLDEST TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE CWFA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING
SOUTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE SC BORDER. EVEN THEN...P-TYPE
SEEMS TO FAVOR A WINTRY MIX FOR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND FREEZING RAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THERE. RAIN IS THE P-TYPE FOR MOST OF THE CWFA.
CANNOT RULE OUT ADVISORY LEVEL ICE ACCUMS FOR THE NRN MTN LOCATIONS
LATE FRI NITE AND SAT MORN. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS PRECIP
COMES TO AN END SAT NITE AND SUN MORN...BUT THIS AND ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMS ARE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND
SAT NITES...WITH HIGHS SAT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RISING TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. A DEEP
TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DEEPER WITH THE TROF THAN THE GFS. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF ON MON...WHILE
THE ECMWF DAMPENS THE WAVE SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THE SFC...THE GFS HAS A
WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
FLORIDA AND MOVES IN INTO THE ATLANTIC...KEEPING OUR CWFA RELATIVELY
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A LESS DEFINED SFC LOW...BUT A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOSER TO THE CWFA SPREADING PRECIP IN FROM THE
SOUTH. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE KEPT MON BASICALLY DRY WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

PRECIP SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DETAILS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND THERMAL STRUCTURE.
THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POP SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST TUE. AGAIN...
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...USED RAIN/SNOW FOR THE P-TYPE WHICH WOULD
INDICATE SOME SNOW AT ONSET ACROSS THE NC MTNS...BUT THIS IS ALSO
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. TEMPS TUE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AMIDST WNW FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  MODELS HINT AT WEAK LEE TROF
DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING ALLOWING FLOW TO BACK ALMOST DUE WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  KEPT WINDS JUST NORTH OF WEST UNTIL 02Z WHEN
FLOW VEERS NORTHERLY.  EITHER WAY...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 5KTS.  SKIES WILL INCREASE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AS CIRRUS
STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM UPSTREAM MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
UPPER WAVE.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL
SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS BEING AT KAVL AND KHKY. ALL TAFS
INITIALIZE VFR WITH MVFR TEMPOS AT KAVL FOR MVFR LEVEL CIGS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE TN LINE...AND ALSO AT KHKY WHERE GUIDANCE
FAVORS LIGHT PATCHY BR RESTRICTIONS.  OTHERWISE...SOLIDLY VFR WITH
FLOW REMAINING LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH MORNING BEFORE LEE TROF
BACKS FLOW WESTERLY DURING THE DAY.  FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN VEER
NORTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE/NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND
KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 170552
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1252 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.  THAT SAID...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE TN LINE CONTINUES TO YIELD BKN TO OVC LOW CLOUDS.
AS FOR THE FCST...TWEAKED POPS DOWN OVER THE NEXT 6HRS TO ACCOUNT
FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.  GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR SOME PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
SMOKIES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO FALL.
REGARDLESS...THE FCST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FZRA ACROSS THESE
ZONES WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS AND ISSUE PRODUCTS IF THE NEED ARISES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 930 PM EST TUESDAY...A CHANNELED VORT LOBE WAS MOVING AROUND THE
BASE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THIS EVENING...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN...AND
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

RADAR RETURNS IN EASTERN TN SHOWED VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION...AND
WITH THE MOIST LAYER QUITE SHALLOW...POPS WILL BE CUT BACK
ACCORDINGLY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE
NUCLEATION ALOFT...AND SNOWFALL APPEARS DOUBTFUL. INSTEAD...SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR RIME ICING APPEARS MORE LIKELY...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL AT HIGH ELEVATIONS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS CLOUD COVER WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AS RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD ADVECTION.

TOMORROW...DRY AND NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS DRY 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE FOOTHILLS WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW CALM CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW DEW-POINT DEPRESSIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
QUIET AS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A
MINOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO LACK ANY MOISTURE FLUX SO ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DOUBTFUL. ABOUT THE MOST THAT SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BY PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER...BUT NOT FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA
FROM THE WEST. THE LONG MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WRT
THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF AND ITS TIMING. BOTH THE LATEST 12Z GFS
AND OLDER 00Z ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN WITH THE ECMWF
STILL MORE AMPLIFIED OVERALL. AFTER THE TROF LIFTS NE ON SUN...MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT TROF DIGS
DOWN OVER THE SW CONUS. ITS LOOKING LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WONT LIKELY REACH OUR
AREA UNTIL NEW DAY 7 OR BEYOND.

AT THE SFC...MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY IS NOW BEING DISPLAYED BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THEY ALL DEVELOP A FAIRLY WEAK LOW OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SAT AND MOVE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
CWFA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE ECMWF
HAS A WEAKER LOW OVERALL AND THE GFS HAS A MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM
COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER RUNS. THE GFS LOW LVL PROFILES ARE STILL
WARMER ON SAT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND IF YOU USED THEM AS IS YOU
WOULD GET RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTHERN NC MTS AND MAYBE THE
SOME OF THE CENTRAL NC MTS. I OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO WHICH
PRODUCES SLIGHTLY WARMER PROFILES OVERALL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FCST. I USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
CREATE P-TYPE GRIDS. THIS GAVE ME RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FZ RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTS EARLY
SAT. IF THINGS TREND ANY WARMER...IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ALL
RAIN SCENARIO. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE LOWS WAKE. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED ALONG THE NC/TENN BORDER AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUES AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AMIDST WNW FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  MODELS HINT AT WEAK LEE TROF
DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING ALLOWING FLOW TO BACK ALMOST DUE WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  KEPT WINDS JUST NORTH OF WEST UNTIL 02Z WHEN
FLOW VEERS NORTHERLY.  EITHER WAY...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 5KTS.  SKIES WILL INCREASE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AS CIRRUS
STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM UPSTREAM MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
UPPER WAVE.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL
SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS BEING AT KAVL AND KHKY. ALL TAFS
INITIALIZE VFR WITH MVFR TEMPOS AT KAVL FOR MVFR LEVEL CIGS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE TN LINE...AND ALSO AT KHKY WHERE GUIDANCE
FAVORS LIGHT PATCHY BR RESTRICTIONS.  OTHERWISE...SOLIDLY VFR WITH
FLOW REMAINING LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH MORNING BEFORE LEE TROF
BACKS FLOW WESTERLY DURING THE DAY.  FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN VEER
NORTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE/NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND
KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   70%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 170552
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1252 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.  THAT SAID...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE TN LINE CONTINUES TO YIELD BKN TO OVC LOW CLOUDS.
AS FOR THE FCST...TWEAKED POPS DOWN OVER THE NEXT 6HRS TO ACCOUNT
FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.  GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR SOME PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
SMOKIES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO FALL.
REGARDLESS...THE FCST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FZRA ACROSS THESE
ZONES WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS AND ISSUE PRODUCTS IF THE NEED ARISES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 930 PM EST TUESDAY...A CHANNELED VORT LOBE WAS MOVING AROUND THE
BASE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THIS EVENING...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN...AND
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

RADAR RETURNS IN EASTERN TN SHOWED VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION...AND
WITH THE MOIST LAYER QUITE SHALLOW...POPS WILL BE CUT BACK
ACCORDINGLY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE
NUCLEATION ALOFT...AND SNOWFALL APPEARS DOUBTFUL. INSTEAD...SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR RIME ICING APPEARS MORE LIKELY...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL AT HIGH ELEVATIONS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS CLOUD COVER WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AS RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD ADVECTION.

TOMORROW...DRY AND NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS DRY 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE FOOTHILLS WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW CALM CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW DEW-POINT DEPRESSIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
QUIET AS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A
MINOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO LACK ANY MOISTURE FLUX SO ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DOUBTFUL. ABOUT THE MOST THAT SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BY PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER...BUT NOT FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA
FROM THE WEST. THE LONG MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WRT
THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF AND ITS TIMING. BOTH THE LATEST 12Z GFS
AND OLDER 00Z ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN WITH THE ECMWF
STILL MORE AMPLIFIED OVERALL. AFTER THE TROF LIFTS NE ON SUN...MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT TROF DIGS
DOWN OVER THE SW CONUS. ITS LOOKING LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WONT LIKELY REACH OUR
AREA UNTIL NEW DAY 7 OR BEYOND.

AT THE SFC...MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY IS NOW BEING DISPLAYED BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THEY ALL DEVELOP A FAIRLY WEAK LOW OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SAT AND MOVE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
CWFA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE ECMWF
HAS A WEAKER LOW OVERALL AND THE GFS HAS A MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM
COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER RUNS. THE GFS LOW LVL PROFILES ARE STILL
WARMER ON SAT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND IF YOU USED THEM AS IS YOU
WOULD GET RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTHERN NC MTS AND MAYBE THE
SOME OF THE CENTRAL NC MTS. I OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO WHICH
PRODUCES SLIGHTLY WARMER PROFILES OVERALL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FCST. I USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
CREATE P-TYPE GRIDS. THIS GAVE ME RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FZ RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTS EARLY
SAT. IF THINGS TREND ANY WARMER...IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ALL
RAIN SCENARIO. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE LOWS WAKE. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED ALONG THE NC/TENN BORDER AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUES AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AMIDST WNW FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  MODELS HINT AT WEAK LEE TROF
DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING ALLOWING FLOW TO BACK ALMOST DUE WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  KEPT WINDS JUST NORTH OF WEST UNTIL 02Z WHEN
FLOW VEERS NORTHERLY.  EITHER WAY...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 5KTS.  SKIES WILL INCREASE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AS CIRRUS
STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM UPSTREAM MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
UPPER WAVE.

ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL
SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS BEING AT KAVL AND KHKY. ALL TAFS
INITIALIZE VFR WITH MVFR TEMPOS AT KAVL FOR MVFR LEVEL CIGS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE TN LINE...AND ALSO AT KHKY WHERE GUIDANCE
FAVORS LIGHT PATCHY BR RESTRICTIONS.  OTHERWISE...SOLIDLY VFR WITH
FLOW REMAINING LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH MORNING BEFORE LEE TROF
BACKS FLOW WESTERLY DURING THE DAY.  FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN VEER
NORTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE/NO IMPACT EXPECTED.  ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND
KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   70%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 170226
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
926 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 930 PM EST TUESDAY...A CHANNELED VORT LOBE WAS MOVING AROUND THE
BASE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THIS EVENING...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN...AND
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

RADAR RETURNS IN EASTERN TN SHOWED VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION...AND
WITH THE MOIST LAYER QUITE SHALLOW...POPS WILL BE CUT BACK
ACCORDINGLY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE
NUCLEATION ALOFT...AND SNOWFALL APPEARS DOUBTFUL. INSTEAD...SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR RIME ICING APPEARS MORE LIKELY...BUT ANY
ACUMUALTIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL AT HIGH ELEVATIONS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS CLOUD COVER WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AS RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD ADVECTION.

TOMORROW...DRY AND NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS DRY 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE FOOTHILLS WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW CALM CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW DEW-POINT DEPRESSIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
QUIET AS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A
MINOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO LACK ANY MOISTURE FLUX SO ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DOUBTFUL. ABOUT THE MOST THAT SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BY PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER...BUT NOT FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA
FROM THE WEST. THE LONG MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WRT
THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF AND ITS TIMING. BOTH THE LATEST 12Z GFS
AND OLDER 00Z ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN WITH THE ECMWF
STILL MORE AMPLIFIED OVERALL. AFTER THE TROF LIFTS NE ON SUN...MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT TROF DIGS
DOWN OVER THE SW CONUS. ITS LOOKING LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WONT LIKELY REACH OUR
AREA UNTIL NEW DAY 7 OR BEYOND.

AT THE SFC...MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY IS NOW BEING DISPLAYED BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THEY ALL DEVELOP A FAIRLY WEAK LOW OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SAT AND MOVE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
CWFA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE ECMWF
HAS A WEAKER LOW OVERALL AND THE GFS HAS A MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM
COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER RUNS. THE GFS LOW LVL PROFILES ARE STILL
WARMER ON SAT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND IF YOU USED THEM AS IS YOU
WOULD GET RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTHERN NC MTS AND MAYBE THE
SOME OF THE CENTRAL NC MTS. I OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO WHICH
PRODUCES SLIGHTLY WARMER PROFILES OVERALL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FCST. I USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
CREATE P-TYPE GRIDS. THIS GAVE ME RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FZ RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTS EARLY
SAT. IF THINGS TREND ANY WARMER...IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ALL
RAIN SCENARIO. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE LOWS WAKE. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED ALONG THE NC/TENN BORDER AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUES AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND SHOWS AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE VFR LVL BY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
THRU 18Z WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE WILL SEE
GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NW BY 00Z WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO
THE EAST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO WED
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIRMASS SPREADS FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20KTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER TO
THE NW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN LIGHT OF THE FROPA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS AND GUSTY N WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE VFR CONDIIONS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEW PINT DEPRESSION WILL CRASH TOWARD
SUNRISE...PROMOTING THE FORMATION OF IFR/MVFR FOG MAINLY OVER THE
UPSTATE SC AND NORTHEN NC PEIDMONT. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO FOR
IFR/MVFR VISBY FOR THE AFFECTING TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   77%     MED   75%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 170226
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
926 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 930 PM EST TUESDAY...A CHANNELED VORT LOBE WAS MOVING AROUND THE
BASE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THIS EVENING...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN...AND
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

RADAR RETURNS IN EASTERN TN SHOWED VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION...AND
WITH THE MOIST LAYER QUITE SHALLOW...POPS WILL BE CUT BACK
ACCORDINGLY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE
NUCLEATION ALOFT...AND SNOWFALL APPEARS DOUBTFUL. INSTEAD...SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR RIME ICING APPEARS MORE LIKELY...BUT ANY
ACUMUALTIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL AT HIGH ELEVATIONS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS CLOUD COVER WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AS RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD ADVECTION.

TOMORROW...DRY AND NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS DRY 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER THE FOOTHILLS WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW CALM CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW DEW-POINT DEPRESSIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
QUIET AS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A
MINOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO LACK ANY MOISTURE FLUX SO ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DOUBTFUL. ABOUT THE MOST THAT SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BY PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER...BUT NOT FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA
FROM THE WEST. THE LONG MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WRT
THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF AND ITS TIMING. BOTH THE LATEST 12Z GFS
AND OLDER 00Z ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN WITH THE ECMWF
STILL MORE AMPLIFIED OVERALL. AFTER THE TROF LIFTS NE ON SUN...MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT TROF DIGS
DOWN OVER THE SW CONUS. ITS LOOKING LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WONT LIKELY REACH OUR
AREA UNTIL NEW DAY 7 OR BEYOND.

AT THE SFC...MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY IS NOW BEING DISPLAYED BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THEY ALL DEVELOP A FAIRLY WEAK LOW OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SAT AND MOVE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
CWFA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE ECMWF
HAS A WEAKER LOW OVERALL AND THE GFS HAS A MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM
COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER RUNS. THE GFS LOW LVL PROFILES ARE STILL
WARMER ON SAT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND IF YOU USED THEM AS IS YOU
WOULD GET RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTHERN NC MTS AND MAYBE THE
SOME OF THE CENTRAL NC MTS. I OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO WHICH
PRODUCES SLIGHTLY WARMER PROFILES OVERALL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FCST. I USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
CREATE P-TYPE GRIDS. THIS GAVE ME RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FZ RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTS EARLY
SAT. IF THINGS TREND ANY WARMER...IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ALL
RAIN SCENARIO. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE LOWS WAKE. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED ALONG THE NC/TENN BORDER AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUES AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND SHOWS AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE VFR LVL BY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
THRU 18Z WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE WILL SEE
GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NW BY 00Z WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO
THE EAST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO WED
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIRMASS SPREADS FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20KTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER TO
THE NW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN LIGHT OF THE FROPA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS AND GUSTY N WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE VFR CONDIIONS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEW PINT DEPRESSION WILL CRASH TOWARD
SUNRISE...PROMOTING THE FORMATION OF IFR/MVFR FOG MAINLY OVER THE
UPSTATE SC AND NORTHEN NC PEIDMONT. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO FOR
IFR/MVFR VISBY FOR THE AFFECTING TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   77%     MED   75%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 162318
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
618 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2315 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PER
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...WITH POPS TRIMMED BACK ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND QPF CUT BACK AS WELL. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF
THE LATEST NAM AND ADJMAV...PRESERVING WIND GUSTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AREAS OF FOG WERE UPDATED BASED ON A MODEL BLEND THAT
FAVORS UPSTATE SC...BUT NOT WESTERN NC.

AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...A COLD
FRONT WAS CROSSING OUR WESTERN ZONES OF THE MTNS...WITH GUSTY WSW/SW
WAA WINDS PERSISTING MAINLY EAST OF THE MTNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LLVL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT SHOULD SCATTER OUT SOON AS DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS FROM THE
WEST PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS WERE
OVERSPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NW IN ITS WAKE.
THE CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH NC MTNS TO THE
LOWER NC PIEDMONT DEPICTS RATHER SHALLOW LLVL MOIST LAYER (SURFACE
TO 800MB) OVER THE NW FACING SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH
PREVAILING NW UPSLOPE FLOW THIS EVENING INTO MID-NIGHT. THE MOIST
LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH WINDS
VEERING TO LESS FAVORABLE WSWLY. THEREFORE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS THIS EVENING THRU
TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW ACCUMS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE FROPA...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TOMORROW...DRY AND NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS DRY 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN NC VALLEYS
AND UPSTATE SC WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CALM CONDITIONS AND VERY
LOW DEW-POINT DEPRESSION UNDER LLVL INVERSION LAYER. AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
QUIET AS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A
MINOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO LACK ANY MOISTURE FLUX SO ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DOUBTFUL. ABOUT THE MOST THAT SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BY PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER...BUT NOT FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA
FROM THE WEST. THE LONG MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WRT
THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF AND ITS TIMING. BOTH THE LATEST 12Z GFS
AND OLDER 00Z ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN WITH THE ECMWF
STILL MORE AMPLIFIED OVERALL. AFTER THE TROF LIFTS NE ON SUN...MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT TROF DIGS
DOWN OVER THE SW CONUS. ITS LOOKING LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WONT LIKELY REACH OUR
AREA UNTIL NEW DAY 7 OR BEYOND.

AT THE SFC...MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY IS NOW BEING DISPLAYED BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THEY ALL DEVELOP A FAIRLY WEAK LOW OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SAT AND MOVE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
CWFA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE ECMWF
HAS A WEAKER LOW OVERALL AND THE GFS HAS A MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM
COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER RUNS. THE GFS LOW LVL PROFILES ARE STILL
WARMER ON SAT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND IF YOU USED THEM AS IS YOU
WOULD GET RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTHERN NC MTS AND MAYBE THE
SOME OF THE CENTRAL NC MTS. I OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO WHICH
PRODUCES SLIGHTLY WARMER PROFILES OVERALL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FCST. I USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
CREATE P-TYPE GRIDS. THIS GAVE ME RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FZ RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTS EARLY
SAT. IF THINGS TREND ANY WARMER...IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ALL
RAIN SCENARIO. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE LOWS WAKE. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED ALONG THE NC/TENN BORDER AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUES AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND SHOWS AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE VFR LVL BY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
THRU 18Z WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE WILL SEE
GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NW BY 00Z WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO
THE EAST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO WED
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIRMASS SPREADS FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20KTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER TO
THE NW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN LIGHT OF THE FROPA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS AND GUSTY N WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE VFR CONDIIONS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEW PINT DEPRESSION WILL CRASH TOWARD
SUNRISE...PROMOTING THE FORMATION OF IFR/MVFR FOG MAINLY OVER THE
UPSTATE SC AND NORTHEN NC PEIDMONT. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO FOR
IFR/MVFR VISBY FOR THE AFFECTING TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 162318
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
618 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2315 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PER
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...WITH POPS TRIMMED BACK ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND QPF CUT BACK AS WELL. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF
THE LATEST NAM AND ADJMAV...PRESERVING WIND GUSTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AREAS OF FOG WERE UPDATED BASED ON A MODEL BLEND THAT
FAVORS UPSTATE SC...BUT NOT WESTERN NC.

AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...A COLD
FRONT WAS CROSSING OUR WESTERN ZONES OF THE MTNS...WITH GUSTY WSW/SW
WAA WINDS PERSISTING MAINLY EAST OF THE MTNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LLVL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT SHOULD SCATTER OUT SOON AS DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS FROM THE
WEST PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS WERE
OVERSPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NW IN ITS WAKE.
THE CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH NC MTNS TO THE
LOWER NC PIEDMONT DEPICTS RATHER SHALLOW LLVL MOIST LAYER (SURFACE
TO 800MB) OVER THE NW FACING SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH
PREVAILING NW UPSLOPE FLOW THIS EVENING INTO MID-NIGHT. THE MOIST
LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH WINDS
VEERING TO LESS FAVORABLE WSWLY. THEREFORE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS THIS EVENING THRU
TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW ACCUMS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE FROPA...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TOMORROW...DRY AND NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS DRY 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN NC VALLEYS
AND UPSTATE SC WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CALM CONDITIONS AND VERY
LOW DEW-POINT DEPRESSION UNDER LLVL INVERSION LAYER. AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
QUIET AS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A
MINOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO LACK ANY MOISTURE FLUX SO ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DOUBTFUL. ABOUT THE MOST THAT SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BY PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER...BUT NOT FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA
FROM THE WEST. THE LONG MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WRT
THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF AND ITS TIMING. BOTH THE LATEST 12Z GFS
AND OLDER 00Z ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN WITH THE ECMWF
STILL MORE AMPLIFIED OVERALL. AFTER THE TROF LIFTS NE ON SUN...MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT TROF DIGS
DOWN OVER THE SW CONUS. ITS LOOKING LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WONT LIKELY REACH OUR
AREA UNTIL NEW DAY 7 OR BEYOND.

AT THE SFC...MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY IS NOW BEING DISPLAYED BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THEY ALL DEVELOP A FAIRLY WEAK LOW OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SAT AND MOVE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
CWFA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE ECMWF
HAS A WEAKER LOW OVERALL AND THE GFS HAS A MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM
COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER RUNS. THE GFS LOW LVL PROFILES ARE STILL
WARMER ON SAT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND IF YOU USED THEM AS IS YOU
WOULD GET RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTHERN NC MTS AND MAYBE THE
SOME OF THE CENTRAL NC MTS. I OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO WHICH
PRODUCES SLIGHTLY WARMER PROFILES OVERALL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FCST. I USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
CREATE P-TYPE GRIDS. THIS GAVE ME RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FZ RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTS EARLY
SAT. IF THINGS TREND ANY WARMER...IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ALL
RAIN SCENARIO. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE LOWS WAKE. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED ALONG THE NC/TENN BORDER AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUES AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND SHOWS AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE VFR LVL BY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
THRU 18Z WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE WILL SEE
GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NW BY 00Z WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO
THE EAST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO WED
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIRMASS SPREADS FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20KTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER TO
THE NW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN LIGHT OF THE FROPA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS AND GUSTY N WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE VFR CONDIIONS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEW PINT DEPRESSION WILL CRASH TOWARD
SUNRISE...PROMOTING THE FORMATION OF IFR/MVFR FOG MAINLY OVER THE
UPSTATE SC AND NORTHEN NC PEIDMONT. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO FOR
IFR/MVFR VISBY FOR THE AFFECTING TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 162044
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER AND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE PER SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.

AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...A COLD
FRONT WAS CROSSING OUR WESTERN ZONES OF THE MTNS...WITH GUSTY WSW/SW
WAA WINDS PERSISTING MAINLY EAST OF THE MTNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LLVL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT SHOULD SCATTER OUT SOON AS DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS FROM THE
WEST PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS WERE
OVERSPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NW IN ITS WAKE.
THE CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH NC MTNS TO THE
LOWER NC PIEDMONT DEPICTS RATHER SHALLOW LLVL MOIST LAYER (SURFACE
TO 800MB) OVER THE NW FACING SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH
PREVAILING NW UPSLOPE FLOW THIS EVENING INTO MID-NIGHT. THE MOIST
LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH WINDS
VEERING TO LESS FAVORABLE WSWLY. THEREFORE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS THIS EVENING THRU
TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW ACCUMS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE FROPA...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TOMORROW...DRY AND NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS DRY 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN NC VALLEYS
AND UPSTATE SC WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CALM CONDITIONS AND VERY
LOW DEW-POINT DEPRESSION UNDER LLVL INVERSION LAYER. AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
QUIET AS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A
MINOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO LACK ANY MOISTURE FLUX SO ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DOUBTFUL. ABOUT THE MOST THAT SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BY PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER...BUT NOT FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA
FROM THE WEST. THE LONG MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WRT
THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF AND ITS TIMING. BOTH THE LATEST 12Z GFS
AND OLDER 00Z ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN WITH THE ECMWF
STILL MORE AMPLIFIED OVERALL. AFTER THE TROF LIFTS NE ON SUN...MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT TROF DIGS
DOWN OVER THE SW CONUS. ITS LOOKING LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WONT LIKELY REACH OUR
AREA UNTIL NEW DAY 7 OR BEYOND.

AT THE SFC...MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY IS NOW BEING DISPLAYED BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THEY ALL DEVELOP A FAIRLY WEAK LOW OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SAT AND MOVE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
CWFA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE ECMWF
HAS A WEAKER LOW OVERALL AND THE GFS HAS A MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM
COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER RUNS. THE GFS LOW LVL PROFILES ARE STILL
WARMER ON SAT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND IF YOU USED THEM AS IS YOU
WOULD GET RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTHERN NC MTS AND MAYBE THE
SOME OF THE CENTRAL NC MTS. I OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO WHICH
PRODUCES SLIGHTLY WARMER PROFILES OVERALL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FCST. I USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
CREATE P-TYPE GRIDS. THIS GAVE ME RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FZ RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTS EARLY
SAT. IF THINGS TREND ANY WARMER...IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ALL
RAIN SCENARIO. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE LOWS WAKE. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED ALONG THE NC/TENN BORDER AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUES AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND SHOWS AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE VFR LVL BY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
THRU 18Z WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE WILL SEE
GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NW BY 00Z WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO
THE EAST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO WED
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIRMASS SPREADS FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20KTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER TO
THE NW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN LIGHT OF THE FROPA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS AND GUSTY N WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE VFR CONDIIONS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEW PINT DEPRESSION WILL CRASH TOWARD
SUNRISE...PROMOTING THE FORMATION OF IFR/MVFR FOG MAINLY OVER THE
UPSTATE SC AND NORTHEN NC PEIDMONT. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO FOR
IFR/MVFR VISBY FOR THE AFFECTING TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 162044
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2045 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER AND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE PER SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.

AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...A COLD
FRONT WAS CROSSING OUR WESTERN ZONES OF THE MTNS...WITH GUSTY WSW/SW
WAA WINDS PERSISTING MAINLY EAST OF THE MTNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LLVL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT SHOULD SCATTER OUT SOON AS DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS FROM THE
WEST PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS WERE
OVERSPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NW IN ITS WAKE.
THE CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH NC MTNS TO THE
LOWER NC PIEDMONT DEPICTS RATHER SHALLOW LLVL MOIST LAYER (SURFACE
TO 800MB) OVER THE NW FACING SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH
PREVAILING NW UPSLOPE FLOW THIS EVENING INTO MID-NIGHT. THE MOIST
LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH WINDS
VEERING TO LESS FAVORABLE WSWLY. THEREFORE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS THIS EVENING THRU
TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW ACCUMS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE FROPA...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TOMORROW...DRY AND NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS DRY 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN NC VALLEYS
AND UPSTATE SC WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CALM CONDITIONS AND VERY
LOW DEW-POINT DEPRESSION UNDER LLVL INVERSION LAYER. AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
QUIET AS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A
MINOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO LACK ANY MOISTURE FLUX SO ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DOUBTFUL. ABOUT THE MOST THAT SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BY PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER...BUT NOT FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA
FROM THE WEST. THE LONG MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WRT
THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF AND ITS TIMING. BOTH THE LATEST 12Z GFS
AND OLDER 00Z ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN WITH THE ECMWF
STILL MORE AMPLIFIED OVERALL. AFTER THE TROF LIFTS NE ON SUN...MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT TROF DIGS
DOWN OVER THE SW CONUS. ITS LOOKING LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WONT LIKELY REACH OUR
AREA UNTIL NEW DAY 7 OR BEYOND.

AT THE SFC...MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY IS NOW BEING DISPLAYED BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THEY ALL DEVELOP A FAIRLY WEAK LOW OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SAT AND MOVE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
CWFA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE ECMWF
HAS A WEAKER LOW OVERALL AND THE GFS HAS A MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM
COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER RUNS. THE GFS LOW LVL PROFILES ARE STILL
WARMER ON SAT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND IF YOU USED THEM AS IS YOU
WOULD GET RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTHERN NC MTS AND MAYBE THE
SOME OF THE CENTRAL NC MTS. I OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO WHICH
PRODUCES SLIGHTLY WARMER PROFILES OVERALL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FCST. I USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
CREATE P-TYPE GRIDS. THIS GAVE ME RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FZ RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTS EARLY
SAT. IF THINGS TREND ANY WARMER...IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ALL
RAIN SCENARIO. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE LOWS WAKE. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED ALONG THE NC/TENN BORDER AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUES AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND SHOWS AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE VFR LVL BY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
THRU 18Z WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE WILL SEE
GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NW BY 00Z WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO
THE EAST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO WED
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIRMASS SPREADS FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20KTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER TO
THE NW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN LIGHT OF THE FROPA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS AND GUSTY N WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE VFR CONDIIONS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEW PINT DEPRESSION WILL CRASH TOWARD
SUNRISE...PROMOTING THE FORMATION OF IFR/MVFR FOG MAINLY OVER THE
UPSTATE SC AND NORTHEN NC PEIDMONT. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO FOR
IFR/MVFR VISBY FOR THE AFFECTING TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 161931
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...A COLD
FRONT WAS CROSSING OUR WESTERN ZONES OF THE MTNS...WITH GUSTY WSW/SW
WAA WINDS PERSISTING MAINLY EAST OF THE MTNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LLVL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT SHOULD SCATTER OUT SOON AS DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS FROM THE
WEST PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS WERE
OVERSPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE FRONT ATT.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NW IN ITS WAKE.
THE CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH NC MTNS TO THE
LOWER NC PIEDMONT DEPICTS RATHER SHALLOW LLVL MOIST LAYER (SURFACE
TO 800MB) OVER THE NW FACING SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH
PREVAILING NW UPSLOPE FLOW THIS EVENING INTO MID-NIGHT. THE MOIST
LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH WINDS
VEERING TO LESS FAVORABLE WSWLY. THEREFORE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS THIS EVENING THRU
TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW ACCUMS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE FROPA...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TOMORROW...DRY AND NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS DRY 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN NC VALLEYS
AND UPSTATE SC WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CALM CONDITIONS AND VERY
LOW DEW-POINT DEPRESSION UNDER LLVL INVERSION LAYER. AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
QUIET AS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A
MINOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO LACK ANY MOISTURE FLUX SO ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DOUBTFUL. ABOUT THE MOST THAT SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BY PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER...BUT NOT FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA
FROM THE WEST. THE LONG MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WRT
THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF AND ITS TIMING. BOTH THE LATEST 12Z GFS
AND OLDER 00Z ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN WITH THE ECMWF
STILL MORE AMPLIFIED OVERALL. AFTER THE TROF LIFTS NE ON SUN...MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT TROF DIGS
DOWN OVER THE SW CONUS. ITS LOOKING LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WONT LIKELY REACH OUR
AREA UNTIL NEW DAY 7 OR BEYOND.

AT THE SFC...MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY IS NOW BEING DISPLAYED BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THEY ALL DEVELOP A FAIRLY WEAK LOW OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SAT AND MOVE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
CWFA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE ECMWF
HAS A WEAKER LOW OVERALL AND THE GFS HAS A MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM
COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER RUNS. THE GFS LOW LVL PROFILES ARE STILL
WARMER ON SAT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND IF YOU USED THEM AS IS YOU
WOULD GET RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTHERN NC MTS AND MAYBE THE
SOME OF THE CENTRAL NC MTS. I OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO WHICH
PRODUCES SLIGHTLY WARMER PROFILES OVERALL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FCST. I USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
CREATE P-TYPE GRIDS. THIS GAVE ME RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FZ RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTS EARLY
SAT. IF THINGS TREND ANY WARMER...IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ALL
RAIN SCENARIO. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE LOWS WAKE. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED ALONG THE NC/TENN BORDER AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUES AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND SHOWS AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE VFR LVL BY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
THRU 18Z WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE WILL SEE
GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NW BY 00Z WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO
THE EAST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO WED
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIRMASS SPREADS FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20KTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER TO
THE NW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN LIGHT OF THE FROPA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS AND GUSTY N WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE VFR CONDIIONS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEW PINT DEPRESSION WILL CRASH TOWARD
SUNRISE...PROMOTING THE FORMATION OF IFR/MVFR FOG MAINLY OVER THE
UPSTATE SC AND NORTHEN NC PEIDMONT. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO FOR
IFR/MVFR VISBY FOR THE AFFECTING TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   74%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JOH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 161931
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...A COLD
FRONT WAS CROSSING OUR WESTERN ZONES OF THE MTNS...WITH GUSTY WSW/SW
WAA WINDS PERSISTING MAINLY EAST OF THE MTNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LLVL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT SHOULD SCATTER OUT SOON AS DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS FROM THE
WEST PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS WERE
OVERSPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE FRONT ATT.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NW IN ITS WAKE.
THE CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH NC MTNS TO THE
LOWER NC PIEDMONT DEPICTS RATHER SHALLOW LLVL MOIST LAYER (SURFACE
TO 800MB) OVER THE NW FACING SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH
PREVAILING NW UPSLOPE FLOW THIS EVENING INTO MID-NIGHT. THE MOIST
LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH WINDS
VEERING TO LESS FAVORABLE WSWLY. THEREFORE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS THIS EVENING THRU
TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW ACCUMS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE FROPA...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TOMORROW...DRY AND NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS DRY 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN NC VALLEYS
AND UPSTATE SC WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CALM CONDITIONS AND VERY
LOW DEW-POINT DEPRESSION UNDER LLVL INVERSION LAYER. AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
QUIET AS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A
MINOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO LACK ANY MOISTURE FLUX SO ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DOUBTFUL. ABOUT THE MOST THAT SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BY PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER...BUT NOT FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA
FROM THE WEST. THE LONG MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WRT
THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF AND ITS TIMING. BOTH THE LATEST 12Z GFS
AND OLDER 00Z ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN WITH THE ECMWF
STILL MORE AMPLIFIED OVERALL. AFTER THE TROF LIFTS NE ON SUN...MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT TROF DIGS
DOWN OVER THE SW CONUS. ITS LOOKING LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WONT LIKELY REACH OUR
AREA UNTIL NEW DAY 7 OR BEYOND.

AT THE SFC...MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY IS NOW BEING DISPLAYED BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THEY ALL DEVELOP A FAIRLY WEAK LOW OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SAT AND MOVE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
CWFA LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE ECMWF
HAS A WEAKER LOW OVERALL AND THE GFS HAS A MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM
COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER RUNS. THE GFS LOW LVL PROFILES ARE STILL
WARMER ON SAT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND IF YOU USED THEM AS IS YOU
WOULD GET RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTHERN NC MTS AND MAYBE THE
SOME OF THE CENTRAL NC MTS. I OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO WHICH
PRODUCES SLIGHTLY WARMER PROFILES OVERALL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FCST. I USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
CREATE P-TYPE GRIDS. THIS GAVE ME RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FZ RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTS EARLY
SAT. IF THINGS TREND ANY WARMER...IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ALL
RAIN SCENARIO. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE LOWS WAKE. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED ALONG THE NC/TENN BORDER AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUES AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND SHOWS AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE VFR LVL BY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
THRU 18Z WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE WILL SEE
GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NW BY 00Z WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO
THE EAST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO WED
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIRMASS SPREADS FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20KTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER TO
THE NW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN LIGHT OF THE FROPA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS AND GUSTY N WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE VFR CONDIIONS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEW PINT DEPRESSION WILL CRASH TOWARD
SUNRISE...PROMOTING THE FORMATION OF IFR/MVFR FOG MAINLY OVER THE
UPSTATE SC AND NORTHEN NC PEIDMONT. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO FOR
IFR/MVFR VISBY FOR THE AFFECTING TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   74%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...JOH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 161810
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
110 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AS DRY AIRMASS SPREADS FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OTHERSIE...CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

830 AM EST TUESDAY UPDATE...HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT TO THE 50/60
RANGE AREAS OVER SE OF THE I-85 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE
RAISED PER LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS OF
TRACK.

AS OF 645 AM EST TUESDAY...ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS AS
IT PERTAINS TO BANDS OF SHRA SLIDING EAST.  THE COLD FRONT HAS
CONTINUED MARCHING EAST WITH ITS CURRENT LOCATION BEING
ADJACENT/ALONG THE I75 CORRIDOR IN EAST TN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL GA.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MOST SITES REPORTING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.  MINOR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE UPSTATE WHERE
BETTER DEWPOINTS RESIDE AND PRECIP HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED.
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FOG WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER
PRECIP EXITS AND WINDS INCREASE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS HAS SHIFTED
ENTIRELY OUT TO SEA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER/SFC TROF AXIS AND
COLD FRONT.  PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN TROF
BASE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOWER TN RIVER VALLEY.  IN
RESPONSE...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE BANDS OF PRECIP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO...AND THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.  AT THIS TIME THE FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE I65 CORRIDOR
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHCENTRAL INDIANA SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON EASTWARD ADVECTION
OF THESE PREFRONTAL PRECIP BANDS THROUGH MORNING.  THUS THE FCST
FEATURES INCREASING LIKELY LEVEL POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.  ELSEWHERE...POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING ALBEIT TOPPING OUT
AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS.  SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST PRE FROPA BEFORE
SCT OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  WINDS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTING
LIKELY...BEFORE VEERING SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.  AS
POPS DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...POPS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPS WHERE INCREASING NW FLOW
PROMOTES SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ALLOWING THIS SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TO YIELD A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
NORMAL DESPITE PRECIP AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST WEAK
COLD ADVECTION...FCST FEATURES MORNING LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
QUIET AS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A
MINOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO LACK ANY MOISTURE FLUX SO ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DOUBTFUL. ABOUT THE MOST THAT SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BY PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER...BUT NOT FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES...THERMAL STRUCTURES...AND THE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WX
ARE STILL IN QUESTION. A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA SAT
AS AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN. AT THE SFC...A
MILLER A TYPE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AS A
NON-CLASSICAL TYPE COLD AIR DAMMING HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST SAT NITE THEN EAST OF
THE AREA SUN...WHILE THE DAMMING HIGH EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. THE AIR MASS IN THE DAMMING REGION IS NOT VERY COLD AND
THE HIGH IS TRANSIENT. THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE
CANADIAN MODEL ARE RELATIVELY WARM...SUGGESTING LIQUID PRECIP FOR
ALL BUT THE NRN MTNS WHERE SNOW WOULD FALL. THE ECMWF IS COLDER...
AND SUGGESTS A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN TIER AND MAYBE
EVEN SOUTH TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENCES...HAVE
KEPT THE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WHERE SFC TEMPS WARRANT. THE PRECIP ENDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUNDAY
BUT SOME NW FLOW SNOW COULD LINGER THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
AS THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE FCST WILL REMAIN IN FLUX UNTIL
BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOPS...AND EVERYONE SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.

ANOTHER SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THERE IS A DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY
FCST.

FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FRI...DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT...THEN BACK TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUN AND MON. ABOVE NORMAL
LOWS FRI NITE FALL BELOW NORMAL BY SUN NITE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND SHOWS AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE VFR LVL BY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
THRU 18Z WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE WILL SEE
GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NW BY 00Z WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO
THE EAST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO WED
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIRMASS SPREADS FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20KTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER TO
THE NW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN LIGHT OF THE FROPA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS AND GUSTY N WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE VFR CONDIIONS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEW PINT DEPRESSION WILL CRASH TOWARD
SUNRISE...PROMOTING THE FORMATION OF IFR/MVFR FOG MAINLY OVER THE
UPSTATE SC AND NORTHEN NC PEIDMONT. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO FOR
IFR/MVFR VISBY FOR THE AFFECTING TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   75%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 161810
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
110 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AS DRY AIRMASS SPREADS FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OTHERSIE...CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

830 AM EST TUESDAY UPDATE...HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT TO THE 50/60
RANGE AREAS OVER SE OF THE I-85 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE
RAISED PER LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS OF
TRACK.

AS OF 645 AM EST TUESDAY...ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS AS
IT PERTAINS TO BANDS OF SHRA SLIDING EAST.  THE COLD FRONT HAS
CONTINUED MARCHING EAST WITH ITS CURRENT LOCATION BEING
ADJACENT/ALONG THE I75 CORRIDOR IN EAST TN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL GA.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MOST SITES REPORTING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.  MINOR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE UPSTATE WHERE
BETTER DEWPOINTS RESIDE AND PRECIP HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED.
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FOG WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER
PRECIP EXITS AND WINDS INCREASE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS HAS SHIFTED
ENTIRELY OUT TO SEA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER/SFC TROF AXIS AND
COLD FRONT.  PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN TROF
BASE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOWER TN RIVER VALLEY.  IN
RESPONSE...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE BANDS OF PRECIP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO...AND THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.  AT THIS TIME THE FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE I65 CORRIDOR
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHCENTRAL INDIANA SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON EASTWARD ADVECTION
OF THESE PREFRONTAL PRECIP BANDS THROUGH MORNING.  THUS THE FCST
FEATURES INCREASING LIKELY LEVEL POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.  ELSEWHERE...POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING ALBEIT TOPPING OUT
AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS.  SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST PRE FROPA BEFORE
SCT OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  WINDS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTING
LIKELY...BEFORE VEERING SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.  AS
POPS DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...POPS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPS WHERE INCREASING NW FLOW
PROMOTES SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ALLOWING THIS SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TO YIELD A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
NORMAL DESPITE PRECIP AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST WEAK
COLD ADVECTION...FCST FEATURES MORNING LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
QUIET AS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A
MINOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO LACK ANY MOISTURE FLUX SO ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DOUBTFUL. ABOUT THE MOST THAT SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BY PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER...BUT NOT FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES...THERMAL STRUCTURES...AND THE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WX
ARE STILL IN QUESTION. A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA SAT
AS AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN. AT THE SFC...A
MILLER A TYPE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AS A
NON-CLASSICAL TYPE COLD AIR DAMMING HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST SAT NITE THEN EAST OF
THE AREA SUN...WHILE THE DAMMING HIGH EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. THE AIR MASS IN THE DAMMING REGION IS NOT VERY COLD AND
THE HIGH IS TRANSIENT. THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE
CANADIAN MODEL ARE RELATIVELY WARM...SUGGESTING LIQUID PRECIP FOR
ALL BUT THE NRN MTNS WHERE SNOW WOULD FALL. THE ECMWF IS COLDER...
AND SUGGESTS A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN TIER AND MAYBE
EVEN SOUTH TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENCES...HAVE
KEPT THE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WHERE SFC TEMPS WARRANT. THE PRECIP ENDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUNDAY
BUT SOME NW FLOW SNOW COULD LINGER THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
AS THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE FCST WILL REMAIN IN FLUX UNTIL
BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOPS...AND EVERYONE SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.

ANOTHER SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THERE IS A DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY
FCST.

FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FRI...DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT...THEN BACK TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUN AND MON. ABOVE NORMAL
LOWS FRI NITE FALL BELOW NORMAL BY SUN NITE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TREND SHOWS AREAS OF IFR CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE VFR LVL BY AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
THRU 18Z WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE WILL SEE
GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NW BY 00Z WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO
THE EAST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO WED
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIRMASS SPREADS FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15-20KTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER TO
THE NW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN LIGHT OF THE FROPA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS AND GUSTY N WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE VFR CONDIIONS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEW PINT DEPRESSION WILL CRASH TOWARD
SUNRISE...PROMOTING THE FORMATION OF IFR/MVFR FOG MAINLY OVER THE
UPSTATE SC AND NORTHEN NC PEIDMONT. HENCE...HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO FOR
IFR/MVFR VISBY FOR THE AFFECTING TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   75%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 161330
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
830 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AM EST TUESDAY UPDATE...HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT TO THE 50/60
RANGE AREAS OVER SE OF THE I-85 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE
RAISED PER LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS OF
TRACK.

AS OF 645 AM EST TUESDAY...ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS AS
IT PERTAINS TO BANDS OF SHRA SLIDING EAST.  THE COLD FRONT HAS
CONTINUED MARCHING EAST WITH ITS CURRENT LOCATION BEING
ADJACENT/ALONG THE I75 CORRIDOR IN EAST TN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL GA.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MOST SITES REPORTING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.  MINOR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE UPSTATE WHERE
BETTER DEWPOINTS RESIDE AND PRECIP HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED.
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FOG WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER
PRECIP EXITS AND WINDS INCREASE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS HAS SHIFTED
ENTIRELY OUT TO SEA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER/SFC TROF AXIS AND
COLD FRONT.  PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN TROF
BASE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOWER TN RIVER VALLEY.  IN
RESPONSE...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE BANDS OF PRECIP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO...AND THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.  AT THIS TIME THE FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE I65 CORRIDOR
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHCENTRAL INDIANA SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON EASTWARD ADVECTION
OF THESE PREFRONTAL PRECIP BANDS THROUGH MORNING.  THUS THE FCST
FEATURES INCREASING LIKELY LEVEL POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.  ELSEWHERE...POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING ALBEIT TOPPING OUT
AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS.  SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST PRE FROPA BEFORE
SCT OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  WINDS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTING
LIKELY...BEFORE VEERING SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.  AS
POPS DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...POPS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPS WHERE INCREASING NW FLOW
PROMOTES SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ALLOWING THIS SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TO YIELD A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
NORMAL DESPITE PRECIP AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST WEAK
COLD ADVECTION...FCST FEATURES MORNING LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM TUESDAY...ONGOING LIGHT NW FLOW PRECIP ACROSS THE NC
MTNS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE NOON.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS AND THICKNESSES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...THE FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULBS ARE BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
PRECIP TO BE RAIN OR SNOW SINCE ANY FORCING WILL MOISTEN AND COOL
THE COLUMN ABOVE THE SFC. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOW CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS MAY LINGER THRU THE DAY
HOWEVER. OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS AND A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS WED
NITE...THEN A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THU....WITH
THE RIDGE REBUILDING THU NITE. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN WED
NITE...BUT A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHORT
WAVE COULD CREATE A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THU.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE WLY FLOW COULD WRING
OUT SOME RAINFALL. EVEN THERE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF LIQUID PRECIP
IS WARRANTED. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA HOWEVER. THE CLOUDS MOVE EAST THU NITE AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. LOWS WED NITE WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THEN FALL TO NEAR NORMAL THU NITE. HIGHS THU WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES...THERMAL STRUCTURES...AND THE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WX
ARE STILL IN QUESTION. A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA SAT
AS AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN. AT THE SFC...A
MILLER A TYPE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AS A
NON-CLASSICAL TYPE COLD AIR DAMMING HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST SAT NITE THEN EAST OF
THE AREA SUN...WHILE THE DAMMING HIGH EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. THE AIR MASS IN THE DAMMING REGION IS NOT VERY COLD AND
THE HIGH IS TRANSIENT. THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE
CANADIAN MODEL ARE RELATIVELY WARM...SUGGESTING LIQUID PRECIP FOR
ALL BUT THE NRN MTNS WHERE SNOW WOULD FALL. THE ECMWF IS COLDER...
AND SUGGESTS A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN TIER AND MAYBE
EVEN SOUTH TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENCES...HAVE
KEPT THE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WHERE SFC TEMPS WARRANT. THE PRECIP ENDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUNDAY
BUT SOME NW FLOW SNOW COULD LINGER THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
AS THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE FCST WILL REMAIN IN FLUX UNTIL
BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOPS...AND EVERYONE SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.

ANOTHER SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THERE IS A DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY
FCST.

FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FRI...DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT...THEN BACK TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUN AND MON. ABOVE NORMAL
LOWS FRI NITE FALL BELOW NORMAL BY SUN NITE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF CYCLE.  TAF INITIALIZES WITH LOW VFR CIGS WITH SHRA PREVAILING
AMIDST LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.  FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CIGS TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES
SATURATED DUE TO SHOWERS. MODELS INDICATE RATHER QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THE SHRA...HOWEVER OPTED TO INCLUDE AT LEAST FEW LOW VFR
CLOUDS UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING...LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FLOW VEERS
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS BEING PERSISTENT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHKY. TAFS
INITIALIZE WITH TEMPOS FOR SHRA AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL THROUGH
MID MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING. CIGS WILL LIFT BY LATE
MORNING AS SHRA EXITS EAST WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS LIKELY AT ALL SITES.  WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING.  LASTLY...ADDED MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT
KAVL AS LOW CLOUDS SPILL UP THE VALLEY FROM UPSTREAM NW FLOW
SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 161330
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
830 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AM EST TUESDAY UPDATE...HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT TO THE 50/60
RANGE AREAS OVER SE OF THE I-85 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE
RAISED PER LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS OF
TRACK.

AS OF 645 AM EST TUESDAY...ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS AS
IT PERTAINS TO BANDS OF SHRA SLIDING EAST.  THE COLD FRONT HAS
CONTINUED MARCHING EAST WITH ITS CURRENT LOCATION BEING
ADJACENT/ALONG THE I75 CORRIDOR IN EAST TN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL GA.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MOST SITES REPORTING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.  MINOR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE UPSTATE WHERE
BETTER DEWPOINTS RESIDE AND PRECIP HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED.
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FOG WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER
PRECIP EXITS AND WINDS INCREASE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS HAS SHIFTED
ENTIRELY OUT TO SEA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER/SFC TROF AXIS AND
COLD FRONT.  PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN TROF
BASE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOWER TN RIVER VALLEY.  IN
RESPONSE...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE BANDS OF PRECIP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO...AND THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.  AT THIS TIME THE FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE I65 CORRIDOR
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHCENTRAL INDIANA SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON EASTWARD ADVECTION
OF THESE PREFRONTAL PRECIP BANDS THROUGH MORNING.  THUS THE FCST
FEATURES INCREASING LIKELY LEVEL POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.  ELSEWHERE...POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING ALBEIT TOPPING OUT
AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS.  SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST PRE FROPA BEFORE
SCT OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  WINDS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTING
LIKELY...BEFORE VEERING SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.  AS
POPS DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...POPS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPS WHERE INCREASING NW FLOW
PROMOTES SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ALLOWING THIS SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TO YIELD A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
NORMAL DESPITE PRECIP AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST WEAK
COLD ADVECTION...FCST FEATURES MORNING LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM TUESDAY...ONGOING LIGHT NW FLOW PRECIP ACROSS THE NC
MTNS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE NOON.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS AND THICKNESSES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...THE FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULBS ARE BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
PRECIP TO BE RAIN OR SNOW SINCE ANY FORCING WILL MOISTEN AND COOL
THE COLUMN ABOVE THE SFC. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOW CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS MAY LINGER THRU THE DAY
HOWEVER. OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS AND A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS WED
NITE...THEN A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THU....WITH
THE RIDGE REBUILDING THU NITE. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN WED
NITE...BUT A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHORT
WAVE COULD CREATE A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THU.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE WLY FLOW COULD WRING
OUT SOME RAINFALL. EVEN THERE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF LIQUID PRECIP
IS WARRANTED. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA HOWEVER. THE CLOUDS MOVE EAST THU NITE AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. LOWS WED NITE WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THEN FALL TO NEAR NORMAL THU NITE. HIGHS THU WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES...THERMAL STRUCTURES...AND THE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WX
ARE STILL IN QUESTION. A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA SAT
AS AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN. AT THE SFC...A
MILLER A TYPE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AS A
NON-CLASSICAL TYPE COLD AIR DAMMING HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST SAT NITE THEN EAST OF
THE AREA SUN...WHILE THE DAMMING HIGH EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. THE AIR MASS IN THE DAMMING REGION IS NOT VERY COLD AND
THE HIGH IS TRANSIENT. THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE
CANADIAN MODEL ARE RELATIVELY WARM...SUGGESTING LIQUID PRECIP FOR
ALL BUT THE NRN MTNS WHERE SNOW WOULD FALL. THE ECMWF IS COLDER...
AND SUGGESTS A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN TIER AND MAYBE
EVEN SOUTH TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENCES...HAVE
KEPT THE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WHERE SFC TEMPS WARRANT. THE PRECIP ENDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUNDAY
BUT SOME NW FLOW SNOW COULD LINGER THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
AS THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE FCST WILL REMAIN IN FLUX UNTIL
BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOPS...AND EVERYONE SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.

ANOTHER SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THERE IS A DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY
FCST.

FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FRI...DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT...THEN BACK TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUN AND MON. ABOVE NORMAL
LOWS FRI NITE FALL BELOW NORMAL BY SUN NITE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF CYCLE.  TAF INITIALIZES WITH LOW VFR CIGS WITH SHRA PREVAILING
AMIDST LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.  FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CIGS TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES
SATURATED DUE TO SHOWERS. MODELS INDICATE RATHER QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THE SHRA...HOWEVER OPTED TO INCLUDE AT LEAST FEW LOW VFR
CLOUDS UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING...LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FLOW VEERS
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS BEING PERSISTENT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHKY. TAFS
INITIALIZE WITH TEMPOS FOR SHRA AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL THROUGH
MID MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING. CIGS WILL LIFT BY LATE
MORNING AS SHRA EXITS EAST WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS LIKELY AT ALL SITES.  WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING.  LASTLY...ADDED MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT
KAVL AS LOW CLOUDS SPILL UP THE VALLEY FROM UPSTREAM NW FLOW
SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 161151
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EST TUESDAY...ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS AS
IT PERTAINS TO BANDS OF SHRA SLIDING EAST.  THE COLD FRONT HAS
CONTINUED MARCHING EAST WITH ITS CURRENT LOCATION BEING
ADJACENT/ALONG THE I75 CORRIDOR IN EAST TN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL GA.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MOST SITES REPORTING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.  MINOR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE UPSTATE WHERE
BETTER DEWPOINTS RESIDE AND PRECIP HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED.
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FOG WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER
PRECIP EXITS AND WINDS INCREASE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS HAS SHIFTED
ENTIRELY OUT TO SEA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER/SFC TROF AXIS AND
COLD FRONT.  PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN TROF
BASE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOWER TN RIVER VALLEY.  IN
RESPONSE...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE BANDS OF PRECIP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO...AND THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.  AT THIS TIME THE FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE I65 CORRIDOR
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHCENTRAL INDIANA SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON EASTWARD ADVECTION
OF THESE PREFRONTAL PRECIP BANDS THROUGH MORNING.  THUS THE FCST
FEATURES INCREASING LIKELY LEVEL POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.  ELSEWHERE...POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING ALBEIT TOPPING OUT
AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS.  SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST PRE FROPA BEFORE
SCT OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  WINDS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTING
LIKELY...BEFORE VEERING SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.  AS
POPS DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...POPS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPS WHERE INCREASING NW FLOW
PROMOTES SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ALLOWING THIS SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TO YIELD A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
NORMAL DESPITE PRECIP AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST WEAK
COLD ADVECTION...FCST FEATURES MORNING LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM TUESDAY...ONGOING LIGHT NW FLOW PRECIP ACROSS THE NC
MTNS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE NOON.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS AND THICKNESSES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...THE FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULBS ARE BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
PRECIP TO BE RAIN OR SNOW SINCE ANY FORCING WILL MOISTEN AND COOL
THE COLUMN ABOVE THE SFC. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOW CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS MAY LINGER THRU THE DAY
HOWEVER. OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS AND A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS WED
NITE...THEN A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THU....WITH
THE RIDGE REBUILDING THU NITE. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN WED
NITE...BUT A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHORT
WAVE COULD CREATE A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THU.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE WLY FLOW COULD WRING
OUT SOME RAINFALL. EVEN THERE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF LIQUID PRECIP
IS WARRANTED. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA HOWEVER. THE CLOUDS MOVE EAST THU NITE AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. LOWS WED NITE WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THEN FALL TO NEAR NORMAL THU NITE. HIGHS THU WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES...THERMAL STRUCTURES...AND THE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WX
ARE STILL IN QUESTION. A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA SAT
AS AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN. AT THE SFC...A
MILLER A TYPE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AS A
NON-CLASSICAL TYPE COLD AIR DAMMING HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST SAT NITE THEN EAST OF
THE AREA SUN...WHILE THE DAMMING HIGH EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. THE AIR MASS IN THE DAMMING REGION IS NOT VERY COLD AND
THE HIGH IS TRANSIENT. THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE
CANADIAN MODEL ARE RELATIVELY WARM...SUGGESTING LIQUID PRECIP FOR
ALL BUT THE NRN MTNS WHERE SNOW WOULD FALL. THE ECMWF IS COLDER...
AND SUGGESTS A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN TIER AND MAYBE
EVEN SOUTH TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENCES...HAVE
KEPT THE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WHERE SFC TEMPS WARRANT. THE PRECIP ENDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUNDAY
BUT SOME NW FLOW SNOW COULD LINGER THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
AS THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE FCST WILL REMAIN IN FLUX UNTIL
BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOPS...AND EVERYONE SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.

ANOTHER SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THERE IS A DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY
FCST.

FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FRI...DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT...THEN BACK TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUN AND MON. ABOVE NORMAL
LOWS FRI NITE FALL BELOW NORMAL BY SUN NITE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF CYCLE.  TAF INITIALIZES WITH LOW VFR CIGS WITH SHRA PREVAILING
AMIDST LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.  FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CIGS TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES
SATURATED DUE TO SHOWERS. MODELS INDICATE RATHER QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THE SHRA...HOWEVER OPTED TO INCLUDE AT LEAST FEW LOW VFR
CLOUDS UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING...LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FLOW VEERS
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS BEING PERSISTENT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHKY. TAFS
INITIALIZE WITH TEMPOS FOR SHRA AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL THROUGH
MID MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING. CIGS WILL LIFT BY LATE
MORNING AS SHRA EXITS EAST WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS LIKELY AT ALL SITES.  WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING.  LASTLY...ADDED MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT
KAVL AS LOW CLOUDS SPILL UP THE VALLEY FROM UPSTREAM NW FLOW
SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 161151
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EST TUESDAY...ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS AS
IT PERTAINS TO BANDS OF SHRA SLIDING EAST.  THE COLD FRONT HAS
CONTINUED MARCHING EAST WITH ITS CURRENT LOCATION BEING
ADJACENT/ALONG THE I75 CORRIDOR IN EAST TN...SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL GA.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MOST SITES REPORTING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.  MINOR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE UPSTATE WHERE
BETTER DEWPOINTS RESIDE AND PRECIP HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED.
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FOG WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER
PRECIP EXITS AND WINDS INCREASE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS HAS SHIFTED
ENTIRELY OUT TO SEA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER/SFC TROF AXIS AND
COLD FRONT.  PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN TROF
BASE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOWER TN RIVER VALLEY.  IN
RESPONSE...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE BANDS OF PRECIP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO...AND THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.  AT THIS TIME THE FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE I65 CORRIDOR
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHCENTRAL INDIANA SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON EASTWARD ADVECTION
OF THESE PREFRONTAL PRECIP BANDS THROUGH MORNING.  THUS THE FCST
FEATURES INCREASING LIKELY LEVEL POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.  ELSEWHERE...POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING ALBEIT TOPPING OUT
AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS.  SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST PRE FROPA BEFORE
SCT OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  WINDS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTING
LIKELY...BEFORE VEERING SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.  AS
POPS DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...POPS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPS WHERE INCREASING NW FLOW
PROMOTES SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ALLOWING THIS SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TO YIELD A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
NORMAL DESPITE PRECIP AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST WEAK
COLD ADVECTION...FCST FEATURES MORNING LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM TUESDAY...ONGOING LIGHT NW FLOW PRECIP ACROSS THE NC
MTNS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE NOON.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS AND THICKNESSES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...THE FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULBS ARE BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
PRECIP TO BE RAIN OR SNOW SINCE ANY FORCING WILL MOISTEN AND COOL
THE COLUMN ABOVE THE SFC. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOW CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS MAY LINGER THRU THE DAY
HOWEVER. OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS AND A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS WED
NITE...THEN A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THU....WITH
THE RIDGE REBUILDING THU NITE. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN WED
NITE...BUT A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHORT
WAVE COULD CREATE A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THU.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE WLY FLOW COULD WRING
OUT SOME RAINFALL. EVEN THERE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF LIQUID PRECIP
IS WARRANTED. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA HOWEVER. THE CLOUDS MOVE EAST THU NITE AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. LOWS WED NITE WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THEN FALL TO NEAR NORMAL THU NITE. HIGHS THU WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES...THERMAL STRUCTURES...AND THE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WX
ARE STILL IN QUESTION. A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA SAT
AS AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN. AT THE SFC...A
MILLER A TYPE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AS A
NON-CLASSICAL TYPE COLD AIR DAMMING HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST SAT NITE THEN EAST OF
THE AREA SUN...WHILE THE DAMMING HIGH EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. THE AIR MASS IN THE DAMMING REGION IS NOT VERY COLD AND
THE HIGH IS TRANSIENT. THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE
CANADIAN MODEL ARE RELATIVELY WARM...SUGGESTING LIQUID PRECIP FOR
ALL BUT THE NRN MTNS WHERE SNOW WOULD FALL. THE ECMWF IS COLDER...
AND SUGGESTS A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN TIER AND MAYBE
EVEN SOUTH TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENCES...HAVE
KEPT THE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WHERE SFC TEMPS WARRANT. THE PRECIP ENDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUNDAY
BUT SOME NW FLOW SNOW COULD LINGER THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
AS THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE FCST WILL REMAIN IN FLUX UNTIL
BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOPS...AND EVERYONE SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.

ANOTHER SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THERE IS A DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY
FCST.

FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FRI...DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT...THEN BACK TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUN AND MON. ABOVE NORMAL
LOWS FRI NITE FALL BELOW NORMAL BY SUN NITE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF CYCLE.  TAF INITIALIZES WITH LOW VFR CIGS WITH SHRA PREVAILING
AMIDST LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.  FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CIGS TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES
SATURATED DUE TO SHOWERS. MODELS INDICATE RATHER QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THE SHRA...HOWEVER OPTED TO INCLUDE AT LEAST FEW LOW VFR
CLOUDS UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING...LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FLOW VEERS
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS BEING PERSISTENT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHKY. TAFS
INITIALIZE WITH TEMPOS FOR SHRA AT ALL SITES ASIDE FOR KAVL THROUGH
MID MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING. CIGS WILL LIFT BY LATE
MORNING AS SHRA EXITS EAST WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS LIKELY AT ALL SITES.  WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING.  LASTLY...ADDED MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT
KAVL AS LOW CLOUDS SPILL UP THE VALLEY FROM UPSTREAM NW FLOW
SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 160853
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
353 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS HAS SHIFTED
ENTIRELY OUT TO SEA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER/SFC TROF AXIS AND
COLD FRONT.  PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN TROF
BASE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOWER TN RIVER VALLEY.  IN
RESPONSE...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE BANDS OF PRECIP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO...AND THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.  AT THIS TIME THE FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE I65 CORRIDOR
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHCENTRAL INDIANA SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON EASTWARD ADVECTION
OF THESE PREFRONTAL PRECIP BANDS THROUGH MORNING.  THUS THE FCST
FEATURES INCREASING LIKELY LEVEL POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.  ELSEWHERE...POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING ALBEIT TOPPING OUT
AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS.  SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST PRE FROPA BEFORE
SCT OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  WINDS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTING
LIKELY...BEFORE VEERING SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.  AS
POPS DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...POPS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPS WHERE INCREASING NW FLOW
PROMOTES SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ALLOWING THIS SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TO YIELD A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
NORMAL DESPITE PRECIP AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST WEAK
COLD ADVECTION...FCST FEATURES MORNING LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM TUESDAY...ONGOING LIGHT NW FLOW PRECIP ACROSS THE NC
MTNS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE NOON.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS AND THICKNESSES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...THE FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULBS ARE BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
PRECIP TO BE RAIN OR SNOW SINCE ANY FORCING WILL MOISTEN AND COOL
THE COLUMN ABOVE THE SFC. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOW CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS MAY LINGER THRU THE DAY
HOWEVER. OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS AND A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS WED
NITE...THEN A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THU....WITH
THE RIDGE REBUILDING THU NITE. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN WED
NITE...BUT A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHORT
WAVE COULD CREATE A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THU.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE WLY FLOW COULD WRING
OUT SOME RAINFALL. EVEN THERE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF LIQUID PRECIP
IS WARRANTED. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA HOWEVER. THE CLOUDS MOVE EAST THU NITE AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. LOWS WED NITE WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THEN FALL TO NEAR NORMAL THU NITE. HIGHS THU WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES...THERMAL STRUCTURES...AND THE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WX
ARE STILL IN QUESTION. A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA SAT
AS AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN. AT THE SFC...A
MILLER A TYPE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AS A
NON-CLASSICAL TYPE COLD AIR DAMMING HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST SAT NITE THEN EAST OF
THE AREA SUN...WHILE THE DAMMING HIGH EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. THE AIR MASS IN THE DAMMING REGION IS NOT VERY COLD AND
THE HIGH IS TRANSIENT. THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE
CANADIAN MODEL ARE RELATIVELY WARM...SUGGESTING LIQUID PRECIP FOR
ALL BUT THE NRN MTNS WHERE SNOW WOULD FALL. THE ECMWF IS COLDER...
AND SUGGESTS A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN TIER AND MAYBE
EVEN SOUTH TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENCES...HAVE
KEPT THE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WHERE SFC TEMPS WARRANT. THE PRECIP ENDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUNDAY
BUT SOME NW FLOW SNOW COULD LINGER THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
AS THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE FCST WILL REMAIN IN FLUX UNTIL
BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOPS...AND EVERYONE SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.

ANOTHER SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THERE IS A DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY
FCST.

FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FRI...DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT...THEN BACK TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUN AND MON. ABOVE NORMAL
LOWS FRI NITE FALL BELOW NORMAL BY SUN NITE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF CYCLE.  TAF INITIALIZES VFR WITH CALM WINDS BENEATH OVC HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST.  AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL INTRUSION EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER
TO LOW VFR BY MID MORNING...WITH FURTHER DERTERIORATION EXPECTED AS
SHRA MOVES IN JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.  WITH THAT TAF FEATURES SHRA AND
MVFR CIGS AMIDST INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 14Z.  MODELS
INDICATE RATHER QUICK CLEARING BEHIND THE SHRA...HOWEVER OPTED TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST SCT LOW CLOUDS UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING...LASTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH GUSTS BEING PERSISTANT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHKY WHERE
MVFR CIGS ARE QUESTIONABLE.  ASIDE FOR A BRIEF 1HR TEMPO FOR CURRENT
SHRA AT THE SC SITES...TAFS INITIALIZE WITH NO WX BENEATH LOW VFR
CIGS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.  CIGS WILL LOWER AS SHRA MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS FEATURED
EVERYWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHKY WHERE MVFR IS BORDERLINE PER
GUIDANCE...THUS LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME.  CIGS WILL LIFT BY LATE
MORNING AS SHRA EXITS EAST WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS LIKELY AT ALL SITES.  WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 160853
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
353 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS HAS SHIFTED
ENTIRELY OUT TO SEA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER/SFC TROF AXIS AND
COLD FRONT.  PRIMARY UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN TROF
BASE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOWER TN RIVER VALLEY.  IN
RESPONSE...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE BANDS OF PRECIP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO...AND THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING.  AT THIS TIME THE FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE I65 CORRIDOR
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHCENTRAL INDIANA SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON EASTWARD ADVECTION
OF THESE PREFRONTAL PRECIP BANDS THROUGH MORNING.  THUS THE FCST
FEATURES INCREASING LIKELY LEVEL POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...NORTHEAST GA...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.  ELSEWHERE...POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING ALBEIT TOPPING OUT
AT SOLID CHANCE LEVELS.  SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST PRE FROPA BEFORE
SCT OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.  WINDS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTING
LIKELY...BEFORE VEERING SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.  AS
POPS DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...POPS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPS WHERE INCREASING NW FLOW
PROMOTES SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ALLOWING THIS SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TO YIELD A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
NORMAL DESPITE PRECIP AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST WEAK
COLD ADVECTION...FCST FEATURES MORNING LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM TUESDAY...ONGOING LIGHT NW FLOW PRECIP ACROSS THE NC
MTNS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE NOON.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS AND THICKNESSES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...THE FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULBS ARE BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
PRECIP TO BE RAIN OR SNOW SINCE ANY FORCING WILL MOISTEN AND COOL
THE COLUMN ABOVE THE SFC. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOW CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS MAY LINGER THRU THE DAY
HOWEVER. OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS AND A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS WED
NITE...THEN A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THU....WITH
THE RIDGE REBUILDING THU NITE. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN WED
NITE...BUT A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHORT
WAVE COULD CREATE A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THU.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE WLY FLOW COULD WRING
OUT SOME RAINFALL. EVEN THERE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF LIQUID PRECIP
IS WARRANTED. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA HOWEVER. THE CLOUDS MOVE EAST THU NITE AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. LOWS WED NITE WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THEN FALL TO NEAR NORMAL THU NITE. HIGHS THU WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES...THERMAL STRUCTURES...AND THE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WX
ARE STILL IN QUESTION. A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA SAT
AS AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN. AT THE SFC...A
MILLER A TYPE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AS A
NON-CLASSICAL TYPE COLD AIR DAMMING HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST SAT NITE THEN EAST OF
THE AREA SUN...WHILE THE DAMMING HIGH EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. THE AIR MASS IN THE DAMMING REGION IS NOT VERY COLD AND
THE HIGH IS TRANSIENT. THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE
CANADIAN MODEL ARE RELATIVELY WARM...SUGGESTING LIQUID PRECIP FOR
ALL BUT THE NRN MTNS WHERE SNOW WOULD FALL. THE ECMWF IS COLDER...
AND SUGGESTS A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN TIER AND MAYBE
EVEN SOUTH TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENCES...HAVE
KEPT THE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WHERE SFC TEMPS WARRANT. THE PRECIP ENDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS SUNDAY
BUT SOME NW FLOW SNOW COULD LINGER THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
AS THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE FCST WILL REMAIN IN FLUX UNTIL
BETTER CONTINUITY DEVELOPS...AND EVERYONE SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.

ANOTHER SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THERE IS A DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY
FCST.

FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FRI...DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT...THEN BACK TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUN AND MON. ABOVE NORMAL
LOWS FRI NITE FALL BELOW NORMAL BY SUN NITE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF CYCLE.  TAF INITIALIZES VFR WITH CALM WINDS BENEATH OVC HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST.  AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL INTRUSION EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER
TO LOW VFR BY MID MORNING...WITH FURTHER DERTERIORATION EXPECTED AS
SHRA MOVES IN JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.  WITH THAT TAF FEATURES SHRA AND
MVFR CIGS AMIDST INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 14Z.  MODELS
INDICATE RATHER QUICK CLEARING BEHIND THE SHRA...HOWEVER OPTED TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST SCT LOW CLOUDS UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING...LASTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH GUSTS BEING PERSISTANT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHKY WHERE
MVFR CIGS ARE QUESTIONABLE.  ASIDE FOR A BRIEF 1HR TEMPO FOR CURRENT
SHRA AT THE SC SITES...TAFS INITIALIZE WITH NO WX BENEATH LOW VFR
CIGS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.  CIGS WILL LOWER AS SHRA MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS FEATURED
EVERYWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHKY WHERE MVFR IS BORDERLINE PER
GUIDANCE...THUS LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME.  CIGS WILL LIFT BY LATE
MORNING AS SHRA EXITS EAST WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS LIKELY AT ALL SITES.  WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 160605
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
105 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EST TUESDAY...TWEAKED POPS ACROSS THE REGION TO ACCOUNT
FOR LATEST NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS.  MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.  EXPECTING
WINDS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY AS THE SURFACE TROF APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.  THUS...CURRENT PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SC
PIEDMONT IS NOT FCST TO EXPAND FURTHER.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

0330 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE FROM THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS.

AT 830 PM EST MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WAS CROSSING THE MID
AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WAS ENTERING THE THE SW MOUNTAINS OF NC...AND APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS OF NE GA.

CLOUDS COVER WILL CONTINUE OT INCREASE AND LOWER AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THAT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AS GULF INFLOW REMAINS
LIMITED. WINDS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER FAST EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LLVL FLOW
VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER DAY. ON
THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH NO
OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS
TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED
AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF CYCLE.  TAF INITIALIZES VFR WITH CALM WINDS BENEATH OVC HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST.  AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL INTRUSION EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER
TO LOW VFR BY MID MORNING...WITH FURTHER DERTERIORATION EXPECTED AS
SHRA MOVES IN JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.  WITH THAT TAF FEATURES SHRA AND
MVFR CIGS AMIDST INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 14Z.  MODELS
INDICATE RATHER QUICK CLEARING BEHIND THE SHRA...HOWEVER OPTED TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST SCT LOW CLOUDS UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING...LASTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH GUSTS BEING PERSISTANT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHKY WHERE
MVFR CIGS ARE QUESTIONABLE.  ASIDE FOR A BRIEF 1HR TEMPO FOR CURRENT
SHRA AT THE SC SITES...TAFS INITIALIZE WITH NO WX BENEATH LOW VFR
CIGS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.  CIGS WILL LOWER AS SHRA MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS FEATURED
EVERYWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHKY WHERE MVFR IS BORDERLINE PER
GUIDANCE...THUS LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME.  CIGS WILL LIFT BY LATE
MORNING AS SHRA EXITS EAST WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS LIKELY AT ALL SITES.  WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  98%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CDG/CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 160605
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
105 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EST TUESDAY...TWEAKED POPS ACROSS THE REGION TO ACCOUNT
FOR LATEST NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS.  MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.  EXPECTING
WINDS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY AS THE SURFACE TROF APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.  THUS...CURRENT PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SC
PIEDMONT IS NOT FCST TO EXPAND FURTHER.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

0330 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE FROM THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS.

AT 830 PM EST MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WAS CROSSING THE MID
AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WAS ENTERING THE THE SW MOUNTAINS OF NC...AND APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS OF NE GA.

CLOUDS COVER WILL CONTINUE OT INCREASE AND LOWER AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THAT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AS GULF INFLOW REMAINS
LIMITED. WINDS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER FAST EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LLVL FLOW
VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER DAY. ON
THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH NO
OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS
TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED
AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF CYCLE.  TAF INITIALIZES VFR WITH CALM WINDS BENEATH OVC HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST.  AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL INTRUSION EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER
TO LOW VFR BY MID MORNING...WITH FURTHER DERTERIORATION EXPECTED AS
SHRA MOVES IN JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.  WITH THAT TAF FEATURES SHRA AND
MVFR CIGS AMIDST INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 14Z.  MODELS
INDICATE RATHER QUICK CLEARING BEHIND THE SHRA...HOWEVER OPTED TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST SCT LOW CLOUDS UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING...LASTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH GUSTS BEING PERSISTANT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHKY WHERE
MVFR CIGS ARE QUESTIONABLE.  ASIDE FOR A BRIEF 1HR TEMPO FOR CURRENT
SHRA AT THE SC SITES...TAFS INITIALIZE WITH NO WX BENEATH LOW VFR
CIGS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.  CIGS WILL LOWER AS SHRA MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS FEATURED
EVERYWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHKY WHERE MVFR IS BORDERLINE PER
GUIDANCE...THUS LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME.  CIGS WILL LIFT BY LATE
MORNING AS SHRA EXITS EAST WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS LIKELY AT ALL SITES.  WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.  SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AFFECTING BOTH KAVL AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY OTHER TAF SITES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  98%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CDG/CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 160327
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0330 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE FROM THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS.

AT 830 PM EST MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WAS CROSSING THE MID
AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WAS ENTERING THE THE SW MOUNTAINS OF NC...AND APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS OF NE GA.

CLOUDS COVER WILL CONTINUE OT INCREASE AND LOWER AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THAT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AS GULF INFLOW REMAINS
LIMITED. WINDS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER FAST EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LLVL FLOW
VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER DAY. ON
THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH NO
OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS
TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED
AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A
GUIDANCE BLEND DOES NOT SUPPORT CIG IR VSBY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN
THOUGH THE PESSIMISTIC NAM DOES SUPPORT CIG RESTRICTIONS. S WINDS
WILL VEER SW ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING...THEN WSW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL LOWER AS A FRONT APPROACHES...WITH
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. EVEN THE PESSIMISTIC LAMP KEEPS
VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS VALLEYS SW OF KAVL. CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE SUPPORTED BY A MODEL BLEND AT ALL SITES BUT
KHKY...MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN SC. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL VEER SW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS PICKING UP...THEN VEER WSW IN THE AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT NW AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 160327
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0330 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE FROM THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS.

AT 830 PM EST MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WAS CROSSING THE MID
AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WAS ENTERING THE THE SW MOUNTAINS OF NC...AND APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS OF NE GA.

CLOUDS COVER WILL CONTINUE OT INCREASE AND LOWER AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THAT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AS GULF INFLOW REMAINS
LIMITED. WINDS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER FAST EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LLVL FLOW
VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER DAY. ON
THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH NO
OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS
TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED
AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A
GUIDANCE BLEND DOES NOT SUPPORT CIG IR VSBY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN
THOUGH THE PESSIMISTIC NAM DOES SUPPORT CIG RESTRICTIONS. S WINDS
WILL VEER SW ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING...THEN WSW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL LOWER AS A FRONT APPROACHES...WITH
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. EVEN THE PESSIMISTIC LAMP KEEPS
VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS VALLEYS SW OF KAVL. CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE SUPPORTED BY A MODEL BLEND AT ALL SITES BUT
KHKY...MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN SC. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL VEER SW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS PICKING UP...THEN VEER WSW IN THE AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT NW AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 160327
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0330 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE FROM THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS.

AT 830 PM EST MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WAS CROSSING THE MID
AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WAS ENTERING THE THE SW MOUNTAINS OF NC...AND APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS OF NE GA.

CLOUDS COVER WILL CONTINUE OT INCREASE AND LOWER AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THAT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AS GULF INFLOW REMAINS
LIMITED. WINDS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER FAST EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LLVL FLOW
VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER DAY. ON
THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH NO
OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS
TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED
AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A
GUIDANCE BLEND DOES NOT SUPPORT CIG IR VSBY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN
THOUGH THE PESSIMISTIC NAM DOES SUPPORT CIG RESTRICTIONS. S WINDS
WILL VEER SW ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING...THEN WSW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL LOWER AS A FRONT APPROACHES...WITH
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. EVEN THE PESSIMISTIC LAMP KEEPS
VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS VALLEYS SW OF KAVL. CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE SUPPORTED BY A MODEL BLEND AT ALL SITES BUT
KHKY...MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN SC. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL VEER SW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS PICKING UP...THEN VEER WSW IN THE AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT NW AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 160327
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0330 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE FROM THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS.

AT 830 PM EST MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WAS CROSSING THE MID
AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WAS ENTERING THE THE SW MOUNTAINS OF NC...AND APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS OF NE GA.

CLOUDS COVER WILL CONTINUE OT INCREASE AND LOWER AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THAT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AS GULF INFLOW REMAINS
LIMITED. WINDS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER FAST EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LLVL FLOW
VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER DAY. ON
THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH NO
OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS
TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED
AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A
GUIDANCE BLEND DOES NOT SUPPORT CIG IR VSBY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN
THOUGH THE PESSIMISTIC NAM DOES SUPPORT CIG RESTRICTIONS. S WINDS
WILL VEER SW ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING...THEN WSW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL LOWER AS A FRONT APPROACHES...WITH
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. EVEN THE PESSIMISTIC LAMP KEEPS
VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS VALLEYS SW OF KAVL. CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE SUPPORTED BY A MODEL BLEND AT ALL SITES BUT
KHKY...MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN SC. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL VEER SW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS PICKING UP...THEN VEER WSW IN THE AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT NW AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 160231
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
931 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0230 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED IN THE WEST LATE THIS
EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS.

AT 830 PM EST MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WAS CROSSING THE MID
AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WAS ENTERING THE THE SW MOUNTAINS OF NC...AND APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS OF NE GA.

CLOUDS COVER WILL CONTINUE OT INCREASE AND LOWER AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THAT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AS GULF INFLOW REMAINS
LIMITED. WINDS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER FAST EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LLVL FLOW
VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER DAY. ON
THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH NO
OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS
TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED
AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A
GUIDANCE BLEND DOES NOT SUPPORT CIG IR VSBY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN
THOUGH THE PESSIMISTIC NAM DOES SUPPORT CIG RESTRICTIONS. S WINDS
WILL VEER SW ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING...THEN WSW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL LOWER AS A FRONT APPROACHES...WITH
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. EVEN THE PESSIMISTIC LAMP KEEPS
VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS VALLEYS SW OF KAVL. CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE SUPPORTED BY A MODEL BLEND AT ALL SITES BUT
KHKY...MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN SC. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL VEER SW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS PICKING UP...THEN VEER WSW IN THE AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT NW AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 160231
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
931 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0230 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED IN THE WEST LATE THIS
EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS.

AT 830 PM EST MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WAS CROSSING THE MID
AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WAS ENTERING THE THE SW MOUNTAINS OF NC...AND APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS OF NE GA.

CLOUDS COVER WILL CONTINUE OT INCREASE AND LOWER AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THAT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AS GULF INFLOW REMAINS
LIMITED. WINDS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER FAST EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LLVL FLOW
VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER DAY. ON
THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH NO
OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS
TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED
AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A
GUIDANCE BLEND DOES NOT SUPPORT CIG IR VSBY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN
THOUGH THE PESSIMISTIC NAM DOES SUPPORT CIG RESTRICTIONS. S WINDS
WILL VEER SW ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING...THEN WSW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL LOWER AS A FRONT APPROACHES...WITH
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. EVEN THE PESSIMISTIC LAMP KEEPS
VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS VALLEYS SW OF KAVL. CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE SUPPORTED BY A MODEL BLEND AT ALL SITES BUT
KHKY...MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN SC. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL VEER SW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS PICKING UP...THEN VEER WSW IN THE AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT NW AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 160231
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
931 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0230 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED IN THE WEST LATE THIS
EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS.

AT 830 PM EST MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WAS CROSSING THE MID
AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WAS ENTERING THE THE SW MOUNTAINS OF NC...AND APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS OF NE GA.

CLOUDS COVER WILL CONTINUE OT INCREASE AND LOWER AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THAT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AS GULF INFLOW REMAINS
LIMITED. WINDS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER FAST EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LLVL FLOW
VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER DAY. ON
THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH NO
OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS
TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED
AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A
GUIDANCE BLEND DOES NOT SUPPORT CIG IR VSBY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN
THOUGH THE PESSIMISTIC NAM DOES SUPPORT CIG RESTRICTIONS. S WINDS
WILL VEER SW ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING...THEN WSW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL LOWER AS A FRONT APPROACHES...WITH
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. EVEN THE PESSIMISTIC LAMP KEEPS
VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS VALLEYS SW OF KAVL. CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE SUPPORTED BY A MODEL BLEND AT ALL SITES BUT
KHKY...MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN SC. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL VEER SW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS PICKING UP...THEN VEER WSW IN THE AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT NW AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 160127
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
827 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 830 PM EST MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WAS CROSSING THE MID
AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WAS ENTERING THE THE SW MOUNTAINS OF NC...AND APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS OF NE GA.

CLOUDS COVER WILL CONTINUE OT INCREASE AND LOWER AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THAT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AS GULF INFLOW REMAINS
LIMITED. WINDS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER FAST EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LLVL FLOW
VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER DAY. ON
THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH NO
OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS
TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED
AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A
GUIDANCE BLEND DOES NOT SUPPORT CIG IR VSBY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN
THOUGH THE PESSIMISTIC NAM DOES SUPPORT CIG RESTRICTIONS. S WINDS
WILL VEER SW ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING...THEN WSW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL LOWER AS A FRONT APPROACHES...WITH
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. EVEN THE PESSIMISTIC LAMP KEEPS
VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS VALLEYS SW OF KAVL. CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE SUPPORTED BY A MODEL BLEND AT ALL SITES BUT
KHKY...MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN SC. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL VEER SW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS PICKING UP...THEN VEER WSW IN THE AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT NW AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 160127
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
827 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 830 PM EST MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WAS CROSSING THE MID
AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WAS ENTERING THE THE SW MOUNTAINS OF NC...AND APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS OF NE GA.

CLOUDS COVER WILL CONTINUE OT INCREASE AND LOWER AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THAT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AS GULF INFLOW REMAINS
LIMITED. WINDS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER FAST EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LLVL FLOW
VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER DAY. ON
THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH NO
OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS
TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED
AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A
GUIDANCE BLEND DOES NOT SUPPORT CIG IR VSBY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN
THOUGH THE PESSIMISTIC NAM DOES SUPPORT CIG RESTRICTIONS. S WINDS
WILL VEER SW ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING...THEN WSW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL LOWER AS A FRONT APPROACHES...WITH
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. EVEN THE PESSIMISTIC LAMP KEEPS
VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS VALLEYS SW OF KAVL. CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE SUPPORTED BY A MODEL BLEND AT ALL SITES BUT
KHKY...MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN SC. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL VEER SW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS PICKING UP...THEN VEER WSW IN THE AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT NW AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 152316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
616 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2315 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM
DATA...PRESERVING GUSTS OVERNIGHT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
NC MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERLY PREFRONTAL FLOW. POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL OF A PRECIPITATION BAND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN SE TN.

AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING SWLY LLVL
JET AND AIDED BY TERRAIN LIFT...SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACRS THE
NC/GA MTNS AND PROBABLY BECOME NUMEROUS ALL ACRS THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER
FAST EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF
CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND
PIEDMONT LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
LLVL FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER DAY. ON
THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH NO
OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS
TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED
AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A
GUIDANCE BLEND DOES NOT SUPPORT CIG IR VSBY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN
THOUGH THE PESSIMISTIC NAM DOES SUPPORT CIG RESTRICTIONS. S WINDS
WILL VEER SW ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING...THEN WSW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL LOWER AS A FRONT APPROACHES...WITH
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. EVEN THE PESSIMISTIC LAMP KEEPS
VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS VALLEYS SW OF KAVL. CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE SUPPORTED BY A MODEL BLEND AT ALL SITES BUT
KHKY...MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN SC. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL VEER SW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS PICKING UP...THEN VEER WSW IN THE AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT NW AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 152316
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
616 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2315 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM
DATA...PRESERVING GUSTS OVERNIGHT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
NC MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERLY PREFRONTAL FLOW. POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL OF A PRECIPITATION BAND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN SE TN.

AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING SWLY LLVL
JET AND AIDED BY TERRAIN LIFT...SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACRS THE
NC/GA MTNS AND PROBABLY BECOME NUMEROUS ALL ACRS THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER
FAST EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF
CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND
PIEDMONT LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
LLVL FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER DAY. ON
THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH NO
OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS
TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED
AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A
GUIDANCE BLEND DOES NOT SUPPORT CIG IR VSBY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN
THOUGH THE PESSIMISTIC NAM DOES SUPPORT CIG RESTRICTIONS. S WINDS
WILL VEER SW ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING...THEN WSW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL LOWER AS A FRONT APPROACHES...WITH
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. EVEN THE PESSIMISTIC LAMP KEEPS
VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS VALLEYS SW OF KAVL. CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE SUPPORTED BY A MODEL BLEND AT ALL SITES BUT
KHKY...MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN SC. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL VEER SW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS PICKING UP...THEN VEER WSW IN THE AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT NW AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 152043
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2040 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED PER THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...ACCOUNTING FOR MORE CIRRUS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING SWLY LLVL
JET AND AIDED BY TERRAIN LIFT...SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACRS THE
NC/GA MTNS AND PROBABLY BECOME NUMEROUS ALL ACRS THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER
FAST EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF
CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND
PIEDMONT LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
LLVL FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER DAY. ON
THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH NO
OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS
TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED
AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THICKER CLOUDS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AFTER
DAYBREAK WHEN A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS MVFR CIGS WILL BE SEEN.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CIG RESTRICTIONS
     ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN FA TONIGHT BEFORE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  92%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CSH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 152043
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2040 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED PER THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...ACCOUNTING FOR MORE CIRRUS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING SWLY LLVL
JET AND AIDED BY TERRAIN LIFT...SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACRS THE
NC/GA MTNS AND PROBABLY BECOME NUMEROUS ALL ACRS THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER
FAST EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF
CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND
PIEDMONT LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
LLVL FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER DAY. ON
THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH NO
OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS
TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED
AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THICKER CLOUDS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AFTER
DAYBREAK WHEN A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS MVFR CIGS WILL BE SEEN.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CIG RESTRICTIONS
     ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN FA TONIGHT BEFORE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   70%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  92%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CSH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 151945
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING SWLY LLVL
JET AND AIDED BY TERRAIN LIFT...SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACRS THE
NC/GA MTNS AND PROBABLY BECOME NUMEROUS ALL ACRS THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER
FAST EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF
CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND
PIEDMONT LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
LLVL FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING EARLY WED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER
DAY. ON THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH
NO OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL
CONSENSUS TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
CLIMO ON WED AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THICKER CLOUDS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AFTER
DAYBREAK WHEN A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS MVFR CIGS WILL BE SEEN.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CIG RESTRICTIONS
     ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN FA TONIGHT BEFORE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  96%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CSH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 151945
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING SWLY LLVL
JET AND AIDED BY TERRAIN LIFT...SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACRS THE
NC/GA MTNS AND PROBABLY BECOME NUMEROUS ALL ACRS THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER
FAST EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF VORT LOBE ON TUESDAY...A NARROW BAND OF
CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST FOOTHILL AND
PIEDMONT LOCALES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
LLVL FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY. SMALL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACRS
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AID IN CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL SVRL CATEGORIES ABOVE THE MID-
DECEMBER CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A COUPLE FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO DEAL WITH. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD... A SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NC TUE EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...WHICH THE MODELS LIMIT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL LIQUID...BUT COULD
CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT IP/ZR BEFORE ENDING EARLY WED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN NOSES OVER THE AREA ON WED PRODUCING A QUIET WEATHER
DAY. ON THU...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SFC
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED WITH
NO OPPORTUNITY FOR GULF INFLOW. HENCE...PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR PYTPE CONCERNS EARLY ON THU IF ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED A MODEL
CONSENSUS TO POPULATE GRIDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
CLIMO ON WED AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON THU WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEPARTING CLOSED
H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SAT...A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE TROF. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN...REMAIN MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OLDER 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO CUT OFF THE TROF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ALSO UNCLEAR AS THE
GFS TRIES TO KEEP SOME BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROFFING TO OUR SW THRU
MON...WHILE THE ECMWF REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEX BY DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRI. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES PERSIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
LOW LVL PROFILES ARE ALSO WARMER WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP FOR SAT
AND SUN EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MTS. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THINGS SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN BY LATE SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION. I AM STILL LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN
ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE FROZEN PRECIP FOR AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. OF COURSE...IF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MORE LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THICKER CLOUDS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AFTER
DAYBREAK WHEN A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS MVFR CIGS WILL BE SEEN.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CIG RESTRICTIONS
     ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN FA TONIGHT BEFORE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL IN LATE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FROPA...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR WEEKS END ONCE AGAIN INCREASING PRECIP/RESTRICTION
CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   72%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  96%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CSH





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