Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KGSP 210609
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
209 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM...A QUIET NEAR TERM IS EXPECTED...AS SHARP UPR RIDGE
AXIS TRANSLATES EAST ACRS THE CWFA. AN INVERTED SFC RIDGE AXIS ALSO
REMAINS INVOF THE REGION...RESULTING IN LGT NE FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS
AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTHERN
MTNS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD ACRS THE REST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. TEMPS CURRENTLY LOOK ON TRACK.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TODAY. EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY
IN THE MID-UPR 70S ACRS THE AREA.

TONIGHT...MID AND UPR LVL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH AN APPROACHING
LATITUDINAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT IN
THE SW NC MTNS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE UPR 40S MTNS AN IN THE 50S PIEDMONT. GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT CROSSING THE
OH/TN VALLEYS. A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP WILL CREEP TO THE TN/NC
BORDER BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT SHUD BE DRY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 AM EDT MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE ERN
U.S. ON TUE IS NOT PARTICULARLY AMPLIFIED OR COHERENT...BUT IT
SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TUE
AFTN. THE WEAK UPPER FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PASSING COLD FRONT SHOULD COMBINE WITH MODEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY
TO CREATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THROUGH TUE AFTN. THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT LOOKS RATHER LIMITED BY THE
TALL SKINNY CAPE IN AREA MODEL PROFILES ALONG WITH MODEST 25 TO 30
KT SFC TO 3 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...THE SPC
CALIBRATED SREF SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO POINT TO A NW
NC PIEDMONT MAXIMA...WHERE SFC INSTABILITY HAS JUST ENOUGH OVERLAP
WITH THE BEST WESTERLY SHEAR AND UPPER FORCING FOR A SLIGHTLY
GREATER SVR THREAT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN HWO
MENTION OF SEVERE TSTMS AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS POST FROPA TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. BROAD RIDGING WILL THEN RETURN WED THROUGH THU WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR CLIMO MAXES AND MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 AM EDT MONDAY...A NRN TIER VORTEX CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRI WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH AMPLIFICATION TO THE TROUGH OVER THE
SRN TIER STATES. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH
THE FRI SFC FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS RATHER
ROBUST ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRI
AFTN AND ABOUT 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN PROFILES.
LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE MADE TO THE LATE WEEK FORECAST...WITH CHC POPS
FOR TSRA THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON FRI.

BROAD TROUGHING WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SAT OVER THE EAST...WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FEATURING A BETTER THERMAL CONTRAST APPROACHING
FROM THE N. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE
WHERE INSTABILITY LINGERS/RETURNS AND THIS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
PROJECT THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP MAINLY ISOLD TO SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES GOING OVER THE WEEKEND FOR PRIMARY MTN
AND SW SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...A QUIET TAF PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRES AXIS TRANSLATES ACRS
THE AREA...WITH GENERALLY SKC OR FEW/SCT250 THRU THE PERIOD. LGT
WINDS WILL FAVOR A NE DIRECTION UNTIL ABOUT NOON...THEN BECOME
VARIABLE DURING THE AFTN BEFORE SWITCHING TO SW.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE...WITH LGT NE WINDS OR VARIABLE
THRU MID MORNING...THEN FAVORING SW BY EARLY AFTN. FCST SNDGS SHOW
POSSIBLE SOME HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACRS THE NC MTNS AND
INTO THE UPSTATE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE CIRRUS ONLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH PIEDMONT
THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED ON TUE...WITH DRYING RETURNING MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 210528
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
128 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES EAST ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...A QUIET NEAR TERM IS EXPECTED...AS SHARP UPR RIDGE
AXIS TRANLATES EAST ACRS THE CWFA. AN INVERTED SFC RIDGE AXIS ALSO
REMAINS INVOF THE REGION...RESULTING IN LGT NE FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS
AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTHERN
MTNS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD ACRS THE REST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. TEMPS CURRENTLY LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 1030 PM...NC PIEDMONT STRATOCU HAS BEEN STEADILY OOZING AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...SO THE SKY COVER FORECAST HAS
BEEN LOWERED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TIER OF ZONES. OTHERWISE...
PRIMARILY THIN CIRRUS WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE
NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE. WITH LIGHT MIXING EXPECTED IN THE PIEDMONT
TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL...WHILE SHELTERED MTN VALLEYS WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO. IN FACT...IT APPEARS PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY IN
SHELTERED AREAS OF THE SRN/CTRL MTNS MONDAY MORNING...AND WE HAVE
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...VALLEY FOG LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT BET...PRIMARILY IN THE LITTLE TENN BASIN AND ADJACENT
DRAINAGES.

AS OF 750 PM SUNDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY STRATOCU ACROSS THE EXTREME
SE TIER OF ZONES...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA AT MID-EVENING.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DISPARATE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STRATOCU LAYER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM BEING SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER
IN DRAGGING IT WEST TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NC PIEDMONT/EASTERN SC
PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING. IN LIGHT OF THIS...HAVE OPTED TO
INTRODUCE SKY COVER AT THE MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY END OF THE
SPECTRUM ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING OUT TO
SEA...ONLY THE FAR EASTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE ANY CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING. THE NAM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CLOUDS INTO THE WRN
NC PIEDMONT...BUT AS THE GFS AND RUC DO NOT DO THIS...I/VE GONE WITH
A SKY FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER MODELS. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST IN MTN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR
AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA FROM
SEEING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL...BUT THEY SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST OVER ALL BUT SOME OF THE INTERIOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF MIDDAY SUNDAY...UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE ERN
CONUS MON NIGHT AS DEEP RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. CORE OF
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND SFC LOW SUBSEQUENTLY
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY TUE. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO ENTER OUR CWFA AT THAT TIME...MOVING
OUT TUE EVENING. WE WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE BETTER FORCING THOUGH
SOME DPVA IS PROGGED AS THE AXIS OF THE BROAD TROUGH PASSES.
FRONTOGENESIS AND LLVL CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE MURKY...SO PRECIP
CHANCES MOSTLY RESULT FROM DECENT PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY. CAPE
PROFILES ARE SKINNY ON PROG SOUNDINGS AND DEEP SATURATION IS
INITIALLY EVIDENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO PROMPT LITTLE
CONCERN...BUT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRYING RAPIDLY OCCURS
ABV 700 MB. THIS OCCURS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN WHEN SOME SFC BASED
INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT. THUS SOME OF THE LATER STORM ACTIVITY
COULD POSE A MICROBURST AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT...MAINLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT. TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TUE WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL.

DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES TUE NIGHT AS PLAINS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
ERN US...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS MORE SLOWLY IN THE
MTNS WHERE A VERY SHALLOW SFC BASED MOIST LAYER REMAINS IN NW FLOW.
BRISK WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AT THAT TIME BUT THESE
SUBSIDE TOWARD DAWN WED. DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU
WED WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACRS THE FA BUT LACKING MOISTURE
ANYWAY. THICKNESSES DO DROP A BIT FOR WED...RETURNING TEMPS TO AROUND
NORMAL DESPITE PRIME INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.  A SURFACE HIGH DIVING OUT OF ONTARIO WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SETTING UP
RETURN FLOW.  MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
PARENT SURFACE CYCLONE EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC SOURCE REGIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWFA WITH GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS INDICATIVE OF SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG WITH ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO DIAL IN ON STORM MODES AND SPECIFIC TIMING/INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PW VALUES APPROACHING
1.5 INCHES LEADING TO MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH CAPE PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED POPS AT HIGH
END CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.  THE FRONT WILL PASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS/MIDLANDS BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY LEADING
TO A DRY FCST UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  AT THAT TIME POPS SLOWLY RAMP
UP ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST ZONES AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
DESPITE THE FROPA FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...A QUIET TAF PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRES AXIS TRANSLATES ACRS
THE AREA...WITH GENERALLY SKC OR FEW/SCT250 THRU THE PERIOD. LGT
WINDS WILL FAVOR A NE DIRECTION UNTIL ABOUT NOON...THEN BECOME
VARIABLE DURING THE AFTN BEFORE SWITCHING TO SW.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE...WITH LGT NE WINDS OR VARIABLE
THRU MID MORNING...THEN FAVORING SW BY EARLY AFTN. FCST SNDGS SHOW
POSSIBLE SOME HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACRS THE NC MTNS AND
INTO THE UPSTATE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE CIRRUS ONLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH PIEDMONT
THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED ON TUE...WITH DRYING RETURNING MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...ARK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 210243
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES EAST ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...NC PIEDMONT STRATOCU HAS BEEN STEADILY OOZING AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...SO THE SKY COVER FORECAST HAS
BEEN LOWERED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TIER OF ZONES. OTHERWISE...
PRIMARILY THIN CIRRUS WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE
NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE. WITH LIGHT MIXING EXPECTED IN THE PIEDMONT
TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL...WHILE SHELTERED MTN VALLEYS WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO. IN FACT...IT APPEARS PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY IN
SHELTERED AREAS OF THE SRN/CTRL MTNS MONDAY MORNING...AND WE HAVE
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...VALLEY FOG LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT BET...PRIMARILY IN THE LITTLE TENN BASIN AND ADJACENT
DRAINAGES.

AS OF 750 PM SUNDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY STRATOCU ACROSS THE EXTREME
SE TIER OF ZONES...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA AT MID-EVENING.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DISPARATE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STRATOCU LAYER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM BEING SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER
IN DRAGGING IT WEST TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NC PIEDMONT/EASTERN SC
PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING. IN LIGHT OF THIS...HAVE OPTED TO
INTRODUCE SKY COVER AT THE MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY END OF THE
SPECTRUM ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING OUT TO
SEA...ONLY THE FAR EASTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE ANY CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING. THE NAM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CLOUDS INTO THE WRN
NC PIEDMONT...BUT AS THE GFS AND RUC DO NOT DO THIS...I/VE GONE WITH
A SKY FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER MODELS. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST IN MTN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR
AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA FROM
SEEING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL...BUT THEY SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST OVER ALL BUT SOME OF THE INTERIOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF MIDDAY SUNDAY...UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE ERN
CONUS MON NIGHT AS DEEP RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. CORE OF
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND SFC LOW SUBSEQUENTLY
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY TUE. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO ENTER OUR CWFA AT THAT TIME...MOVING
OUT TUE EVENING. WE WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE BETTER FORCING THOUGH
SOME DPVA IS PROGGED AS THE AXIS OF THE BROAD TROUGH PASSES.
FRONTOGENESIS AND LLVL CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE MURKY...SO PRECIP
CHANCES MOSTLY RESULT FROM DECENT PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY. CAPE
PROFILES ARE SKINNY ON PROG SOUNDINGS AND DEEP SATURATION IS
INITIALLY EVIDENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO PROMPT LITTLE
CONCERN...BUT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRYING RAPIDLY OCCURS
ABV 700 MB. THIS OCCURS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN WHEN SOME SFC BASED
INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT. THUS SOME OF THE LATER STORM ACTIVITY
COULD POSE A MICROBURST AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT...MAINLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT. TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TUE WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL.

DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES TUE NIGHT AS PLAINS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
ERN US...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS MORE SLOWLY IN THE
MTNS WHERE A VERY SHALLOW SFC BASED MOIST LAYER REMAINS IN NW FLOW.
BRISK WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AT THAT TIME BUT THESE
SUBSIDE TOWARD DAWN WED. DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU
WED WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACRS THE FA BUT LACKING MOISTURE
ANYWAY. THICKNESSES DO DROP A BIT FOR WED...RETURNING TEMPS TO AROUND
NORMAL DESPITE PRIME INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.  A SURFACE HIGH DIVING OUT OF ONTARIO WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SETTING UP
RETURN FLOW.  MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
PARENT SURFACE CYCLONE EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC SOURCE REGIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWFA WITH GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS INDICATIVE OF SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG WITH ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO DIAL IN ON STORM MODES AND SPECIFIC TIMING/INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PW VALUES APPROACHING
1.5 INCHES LEADING TO MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH CAPE PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED POPS AT HIGH
END CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.  THE FRONT WILL PASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS/MIDLANDS BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY LEADING
TO A DRY FCST UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  AT THAT TIME POPS SLOWLY RAMP
UP ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST ZONES AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
DESPITE THE FROPA FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR STRATOCU AT AROUND 060 WILL LINGER NEAR THE AIRFIELD
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY REMAINING FEW/SCT...ALTHOUGH AN OCCL PERIOD
OF BKN IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE POSSIBLY VEERING TOWARD THE SE BY
THE END OF MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NE WINDS EXPECTED. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
MANY AREAS MONDAY MORNING...BUT MAY BECOME LIGHT SE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH PIEDMONT
THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED ON TUE...WITH DRYING RETURNING MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 202358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
758 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES EAST ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SUNDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY STRATOCU ACROSS THE EXTREME
SE TIER OF ZONES...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA AT MID-EVENING.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DISPARATE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STRATOCU LAYER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM BEING SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER
IN DRAGGING IT WEST TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NC PIEDMONT/EASTERN SC
PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING. IN LIGHT OF THIS...HAVE OPTED TO
INTRODUCE SKY COVER AT THE MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY END OF THE
SPECTRUM ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING OUT TO
SEA...ONLY THE FAR EASTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE ANY CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING. THE NAM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CLOUDS INTO THE WRN
NC PIEDMONT...BUT AS THE GFS AND RUC DO NOT DO THIS...I/VE GONE WITH
A SKY FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER MODELS. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST IN MTN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR
AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA FROM
SEEING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL...BUT THEY SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST OVER ALL BUT SOME OF THE INTERIOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF MIDDAY SUNDAY...UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE ERN
CONUS MON NIGHT AS DEEP RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. CORE OF
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND SFC LOW SUBSEQUENTLY
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY TUE. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO ENTER OUR CWFA AT THAT TIME...MOVING
OUT TUE EVENING. WE WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE BETTER FORCING THOUGH
SOME DPVA IS PROGGED AS THE AXIS OF THE BROAD TROUGH PASSES.
FRONTOGENESIS AND LLVL CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE MURKY...SO PRECIP
CHANCES MOSTLY RESULT FROM DECENT PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY. CAPE
PROFILES ARE SKINNY ON PROG SOUNDINGS AND DEEP SATURATION IS
INITIALLY EVIDENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO PROMPT LITTLE
CONCERN...BUT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRYING RAPIDLY OCCURS
ABV 700 MB. THIS OCCURS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN WHEN SOME SFC BASED
INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT. THUS SOME OF THE LATER STORM ACTIVITY
COULD POSE A MICROBURST AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT...MAINLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT. TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TUE WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL.

DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES TUE NIGHT AS PLAINS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
ERN US...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS MORE SLOWLY IN THE
MTNS WHERE A VERY SHALLOW SFC BASED MOIST LAYER REMAINS IN NW FLOW.
BRISK WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AT THAT TIME BUT THESE
SUBSIDE TOWARD DAWN WED. DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU
WED WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACRS THE FA BUT LACKING MOISTURE
ANYWAY. THICKNESSES DO DROP A BIT FOR WED...RETURNING TEMPS TO AROUND
NORMAL DESPITE PRIME INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.  A SURFACE HIGH DIVING OUT OF ONTARIO WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SETTING UP
RETURN FLOW.  MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
PARENT SURFACE CYCLONE EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC SOURCE REGIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWFA WITH GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS INDICATIVE OF SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG WITH ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO DIAL IN ON STORM MODES AND SPECIFIC TIMING/INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PW VALUES APPROACHING
1.5 INCHES LEADING TO MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH CAPE PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED POPS AT HIGH
END CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.  THE FRONT WILL PASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS/MIDLANDS BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY LEADING
TO A DRY FCST UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  AT THAT TIME POPS SLOWLY RAMP
UP ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST ZONES AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
DESPITE THE FROPA FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR STRATOCU AT AROUND 060 WILL LINGER NEAR THE AIRFIELD
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY REMAINING FEW/SCT...ALTHOUGH AN OCCL PERIOD
OF BKN IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE POSSIBLY VEERING TOWARD THE SE BY
THE END OF MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NE WINDS EXPECTED. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
MANY AREAS MONDAY MORNING...BUT MAY BECOME LIGHT SE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH PIEDMONT
THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED ON TUE...WITH DRYING RETURNING MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 201845
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES EAST ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING OUT TO
SEA...ONLY THE FAR EASTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE ANY CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING. THE NAM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CLOUDS INTO THE WRN
NC PIEDMONT...BUT AS THE GFS AND RUC DO NOT DO THIS...I/VE GONE WITH
A SKY FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER MODELS. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST IN MTN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR
AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA FROM
SEEING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL...BUT THEY SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST OVER ALL BUT SOME OF THE INTERIOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF MIDDAY SUNDAY...UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE ERN
CONUS MON NIGHT AS DEEP RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. CORE OF
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND SFC LOW SUBSEQUENTLY
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY TUE. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO ENTER OUR CWFA AT THAT TIME...MOVING
OUT TUE EVENING. WE WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE BETTER FORCING THOUGH
SOME DPVA IS PROGGED AS THE AXIS OF THE BROAD TROUGH PASSES.
FRONTOGENESIS AND LLVL CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE MURKY...SO PRECIP
CHANCES MOSTLY RESULT FROM DECENT PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY. CAPE
PROFILES ARE SKINNY ON PROG SOUNDINGS AND DEEP SATURATION IS
INITIALLY EVIDENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO PROMPT LITTLE
CONCERN...BUT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRYING RAPIDLY OCCURS
ABV 700 MB. THIS OCCURS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN WHEN SOME SFC BASED
INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT. THUS SOME OF THE LATER STORM ACTIVITY
COULD POSE A MICROBURST AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT...MAINLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT. TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TUE WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL.

DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES TUE NIGHT AS PLAINS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
ERN US...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS MORE SLOWLY IN THE
MTNS WHERE A VERY SHALLOW SFC BASED MOIST LAYER REMAINS IN NW FLOW.
BRISK WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AT THAT TIME BUT THESE
SUBSIDE TOWARD DAWN WED. DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU
WED WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACRS THE FA BUT LACKING MOISTURE
ANYWAY. THICKNESSES DO DROP A BIT FOR WED...RETURNING TEMPS TO AROUND
NORMAL DESPITE PRIME INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.  A SURFACE HIGH DIVING OUT OF ONTARIO WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SETTING UP
RETURN FLOW.  MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
PARENT SURFACE CYCLONE EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC SOURCE REGIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWFA WITH GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS INDICATIVE OF SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG WITH ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO DIAL IN ON STORM MODES AND SPECIFIC TIMING/INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PW VALUES APPROACHING
1.5 INCHES LEADING TO MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH CAPE PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED POPS AT HIGH
END CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.  THE FRONT WILL PASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS/MIDLANDS BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY LEADING
TO A DRY FCST UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  AT THAT TIME POPS SLOWLY RAMP
UP ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST ZONES AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
DESPITE THE FROPA FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF STRATO-CU WITH BASES OF 5-6KFT HAS
BEEN SLOWLY APPROACHING THE KCLT AIRFIELD FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAY. THE NAM BRINGS THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE THE AIRFIELD BY 21 UTC AND
KEEPS THEM IN MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE GFS AND RUC ARE MUCH DRIER AND
NEVER BRING THE CLOUDS THAT FAR WEST. THE NAM LLVL RH FIELDS ALREADY
LOOK OVERDONE...AND I/VE ADDED A FEW HOURS OF FEW060 TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN HORIZON. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
OUT OF THE NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME WEAK MIXING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS INDICATED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...I DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY FOG AT ANY OF THE AIRFIELDS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY. A FAIRLY WET
FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH PIEDMONT THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED ON
TUE...WITH DRYING RETURNING MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...MCAVOY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 201747
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND...AS LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING OUT TO
SEA...ONLY THE FAR EASTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE ANY CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING. THE NAM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CLOUDS INTO THE WRN
NC PIEDMONT...BUT AS THE GFS AND RUC DO NOT DO THIS...I/VE GONE WITH
A SKY FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER MODELS. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST IN MTN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR
AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA FROM
SEEING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL...BUT THEY SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST OVER ALL BUT SOME OF THE INTERIOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
WEAKENS. ANTICIPATE MAXES TO REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE
PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY
WILL BUBBLE UP IN PIEDMONT SECTIONS TO SUPPORT PRE/FRONTAL AFTN TSRA
TUE...BUT SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR TOO WEAK FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY TUE EVENING...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AT SOME HIGHER RIDGE TOPS EARLY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...NO FROST OR FREEZE IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SHARP UPR RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF...WHICH WILL
LIFT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TO ALLOW AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW ATOP THE
CWFA BY FRIDAY. LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE
OH/TN VLYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT PUSHING THRU
THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTBY/SHEAR AND FORCING TO
WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ON
TUESDAY. STILL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...AND THAT FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED...THE SEVERE WX THREAT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. THE FRONT SHUD PUSH THRU THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
THAN TUESDAY FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL.
THEN TEMPS WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF STRATO-CU WITH BASES OF 5-6KFT HAS
BEEN SLOWLY APPROACHING THE KCLT AIRFIELD FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAY. THE NAM BRINGS THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE THE AIRFIELD BY 21 UTC AND
KEEPS THEM IN MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE GFS AND RUC ARE MUCH DRIER AND
NEVER BRING THE CLOUDS THAT FAR WEST. THE NAM LLVL RH FIELDS ALREADY
LOOK OVERDONE...AND I/VE ADDED A FEW HOURS OF FEW060 TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN HORIZON. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
OUT OF THE NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME WEAK MIXING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS INDICATED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...I DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY FOG AT ANY OF THE AIRFIELDS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY. A FAIRLY WET
FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH PIEDMONT THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED ON
TUE...WITH DRYING RETURNING MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...MCAVOY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 201341
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
941 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND...AS LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EDT SUNDAY....9 AM TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A GOOD 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN PROGGED. CONSIDERING THE CLEARING SKIES AND THE
WARM START...I POPULATED MAX TEMPS WITH THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE WHICH
RAISES THE MAX TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
INCREASE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...ALL LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE LIGHT RAIN HAS
DISSIPATED SOUTHEAST OF CHARLOTTE...SO POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED ON THE
LATEST UPDATE. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SWIRLING
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF SAVANNAH THIS
MORNING. AS THIS UPPER VORTEX MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY...RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. GRADUAL SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND DESPITE THE LINGERING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE. THE NAM HAS MORE EASTERLY FLOW MOISTURE AT 850
MB TONIGHT...BUT THE PREFERRED GFS/ECM CAMP KEEP THE MOISTURE
CONFINED MORE TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT MAXES IN THE 60S THIS
AFTN AND MINS IN THE 40S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
WEAKENS. ANTICIPATE MAXES TO REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE
PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY
WILL BUBBLE UP IN PIEDMONT SECTIONS TO SUPPORT PRE/FRONTAL AFTN TSRA
TUE...BUT SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR TOO WEAK FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY TUE EVENING...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AT SOME HIGHER RIDGE TOPS EARLY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...NO FROST OR FREEZE IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SHARP UPR RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF...WHICH WILL
LIFT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TO ALLOW AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW ATOP THE
CWFA BY FRIDAY. LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE
OH/TN VLYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT PUSHING THRU
THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTBY/SHEAR AND FORCING TO
WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ON
TUESDAY. STILL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...AND THAT FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED...THE SEVERE WX THREAT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. THE FRONT SHUD PUSH THRU THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
THAN TUESDAY FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL.
THEN TEMPS WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...WITH ALL DEFORMATION ZONE LIGHT RAIN SAFELY SE OF THE
TERMINAL AREA AT ISSUANCE TIME...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE ANY LINGERING
VFR CIGS. EXPECT STEADY N TO NE FLOW THIS MORNING...BUT WITH
INCREASING GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT WITH MIXING THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. ANY MORNING VFR CIGS WILL SCATTER BEFORE AFTN. WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAN TOWARD DRIER GFS/ECM VERSUS NAM SHOWING 850 MB MOISTURE ON
EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. IF NO STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVE ON THE EASTERLY
FLOW...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PESKY STRATOCUMULUS LAYER AT 6 TO 8 KT WILL STEADILY
THIN AND SCATTER THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS LEFT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON NE FLOW AT
THE UPSTATE TAF SITES TODAY...ESPECIALLY PICKING UP WITH MIXING BY
LATE MORNING. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH VFR STRATOCUMULUS
ADVECTING BACK INTO THE REGION ON EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT...BUT THE
DRIER GFS/ECM SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY. A FAIRLY WET
FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH PIEDMONT THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED ON
TUE...WITH DRYING RETURNING MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 201103
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
703 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND...AS LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ALL LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE LIGHT RAIN HAS
DISSIPATED SOUTHEAST OF CHARLOTTE...SO POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED ON THE
LATEST UPDATE. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SWIRLING
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF SAVANNAH THIS
MORNING. AS THIS UPPER VORTEX MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY...RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. GRADUAL SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND DESPITE THE LINGERING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE. THE NAM HAS MORE EASTERLY FLOW MOISTURE AT 850
MB TONIGHT...BUT THE PREFERRED GFS/ECM CAMP KEEP THE MOISTURE
CONFINED MORE TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT MAXES IN THE 60S THIS
AFTN AND MINS IN THE 40S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
WEAKENS. ANTICIPATE MAXES TO REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE
PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY
WILL BUBBLE UP IN PIEDMONT SECTIONS TO SUPPORT PRE/FRONTAL AFTN TSRA
TUE...BUT SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR TOO WEAK FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY TUE EVENING...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AT SOME HIGHER RIDGE TOPS EARLY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...NO FROST OR FREEZE IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SHARP UPR RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF...WHICH WILL
LIFT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TO ALLOW AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW ATOP THE
CWFA BY FRIDAY. LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE
OH/TN VLYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT PUSHING THRU
THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTBY/SHEAR AND FORCING TO
WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ON
TUESDAY. STILL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...AND THAT FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED...THE SEVERE WX THREAT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. THE FRONT SHUD PUSH THRU THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
THAN TUESDAY FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL.
THEN TEMPS WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...WITH ALL DEFORMATION ZONE LIGHT RAIN SAFELY SE OF THE
TERMINAL AREA AT ISSUANCE TIME...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE ANY LINGERING
VFR CIGS. EXPECT STEADY N TO NE FLOW THIS MORNING...BUT WITH
INCREASING GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT WITH MIXING THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. ANY MORNING VFR CIGS WILL SCATTER BEFORE AFTN. WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAN TOWARD DRIER GFS/ECM VERSUS NAM SHOWING 850 MB MOISTURE ON
EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. IF NO STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVE ON THE EASTERLY
FLOW...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PESKY STRATOCUMULUS LAYER AT 6 TO 8 KT WILL STEADILY
THIN AND SCATTER THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS LEFT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON NE FLOW AT
THE UPSTATE TAF SITES TODAY...ESPECIALLY PICKING UP WITH MIXING BY
LATE MORNING. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH VFR STRATOCUMULUS
ADVECTING BACK INTO THE REGION ON EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT...BUT THE
DRIER GFS/ECM SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY. A FAIRLY WET
FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH PIEDMONT THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED ON
TUE...WITH DRYING RETURNING MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 200904
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
504 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND...AS LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THAT NEARLY ALL THE
LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE LIGHT RAIN HAS DISSIPATED SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLOTTE...SO POPS HAVE BEEN CURTAILED ON THE LATEST UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SWIRLING UPPER LOW MOVING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF SAVANNAH THIS MORNING. AS THIS
UPPER VORTEX MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY...RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST. GRADUAL SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND DESPITE THE LINGERING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINING IN
PLACE. THE NAM HAS MORE EASTERLY FLOW MOISTURE AT 850 MB
TONIGHT...BUT THE PREFERRED GFS/ECM CAMP KEEP THE MOISTURE CONFINED
MORE TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT MAXES IN THE 60S THIS AFTN AND
MINS IN THE 40S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
WEAKENS. ANTICIPATE MAXES TO REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE
PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY
WILL BUBBLE UP IN PIEDMONT SECTIONS TO SUPPORT PRE/FRONTAL AFTN TSRA
TUE...BUT SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR TOO WEAK FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY TUE EVENING...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AT SOME HIGHER RIDGE TOPS EARLY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...NO FROST OR FREEZE IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SHARP UPR RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF...WHICH WILL
LIFT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TO ALLOW AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW ATOP THE
CWFA BY FRIDAY. LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE
OH/TN VLYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT PUSHING THRU
THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTBY/SHEAR AND FORCING TO
WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ON
TUESDAY. STILL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...AND THAT FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED...THE SEVERE WX THREAT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. THE FRONT SHUD PUSH THRU THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
THAN TUESDAY FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL.
THEN TEMPS WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANY NEARBY LIGHT RAIN IN THE LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE
HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AT THIS POINT. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING IN
ON NE FLOW IS KEEPING CIGS AND VSBY VFR AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN THE NE
FLOW...BUT WITH BETTER GUSTS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MIXING.
WILL ALLOW VFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT BY 15Z AND THEN LEAN TOWARD LESS
CLOUDS AS INDICATED ON THE GFS/ECM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ON NE FLOW IS KEEPING
VSBY AND CIGS AT VFR LEVELS AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING. KAVL WILL BE SHELTERED TO THE DRIER NE FLOW...AND KAND WILL
SEE SLIGHTLY LESS BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING...SO THESE LOCATIONS COULD
EXPERIENCE VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADVERTISE THIS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ON NE FLOW AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES TODAY...ESPECIALLY PICKING
UP WITH MIXING BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY. A FAIRLY WET
FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH PIEDMONT THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED ON
TUE...WITH DRYING RETURNING MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 200718
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND...AS LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ONE LAST DIMINISHING BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE SE SIDE OF CHARLOTTE EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALL MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT COVERAGE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE DISSIPATES
AND SLIPS EAST. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SWIRLING
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF SAVANNAH EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS THIS UPPER VORTEX MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE
TODAY...RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. GRADUAL SCATTERING OF
THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND DESPITE THE LINGERING SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. THE NAM HAS MORE EASTERLY FLOW
MOISTURE AT 850 MB TONIGHT...BUT THE PREFERRED GFS/ECM CAMP KEEP THE
MOISTURE CONFINED MORE TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT MAXES IN THE 60S
THIS AFTN AND MINS IN THE 40S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
WEAKENS. ANTICIPATE MAXES TO REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE
PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY
WILL BUBBLE UP IN PIEDMONT SECTIONS TO SUPPORT PRE/FRONTAL AFTN TSRA
TUE...BUT SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR TOO WEAK FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY TUE EVENING...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AT SOME HIGHER RIDGE TOPS EARLY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...NO FROST OR FREEZE IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SHARP UPR RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF...WHICH WILL
LIFT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TO ALLOW AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW ATOP THE
CWFA BY FRIDAY. LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE
OH/TN VLYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT PUSHING THRU
THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTBY/SHEAR AND FORCING TO
WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ON
TUESDAY. STILL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...AND THAT FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED...THE SEVERE WX THREAT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. THE FRONT SHUD PUSH THRU THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
THAN TUESDAY FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL.
THEN TEMPS WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT RAIN IN THE LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR THE
AIRFIELD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR ADVECTING IN ON NE FLOW IS KEEPING CIGS AND VSBY VFR EVEN WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING...SO WILL RIDE ON VFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN THE NE FLOW...BUT WITH BETTER
GUSTS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MIXING. WILL ALLOW VFR CIGS TO
SCATTER OUT BY 16Z AND THEN LEAN TOWARD LESS CLOUDS AS INDICATED ON
THE GFS/ECM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...ALL LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE FOOTHILL AND MTN TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ON NE
FLOW IS KEEPING VSBY AND CIGS AT VFR LEVELS AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST.
KAVL TO KAND ARE THE SITES OF MOST CONCERN. KAVL WILL BE SHELTERED
TO THE DRIER NE FLOW...AND KAND WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYING. THESE LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO FEATURE THIS AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON NE FLOW AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN WITH MIXING.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY. A FAIRLY WET
FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH PIEDMONT THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED ON
TUE...WITH DRYING RETURNING MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 200601
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
BROAD AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ONE LAST TRAINING BAND
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF CHARLOTTE EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALL MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT COVERAGE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE DISSIPATES AND SLIPS
EAST. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SWIRLING UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF SAVANNAH EARLY THIS MORNING.
AS THIS UPPER VORTEX MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY...RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. GRADUAL SCATTERING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND DESPITE THE LINGERING SFC HIGH PRES ZONE REMAINING IN PLACE.
THE NAM HAS MORE EASTERLY FLOW MOISTURE AT 850 MB TONIGHT...BUT THE
PREFERRED GFS/ECM CAMP KEEP THE MOISTURE CONFINED MORE TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT MAXES IN THE 60S THIS AFTN AND MINS IN THE 40S
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF MIDDAY SATURDAY...SHORT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEEP LOW MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MAINTAINING
NORTHERLY LLVL FLOW INTO MONDAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FA LATE SUNDAY THUS GETS SHUNTED
OFF TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WHILE SOME LLVL MOISTURE DOES ADVECT
INTO THE WRN FA AS THE FLOW BACKS. THIS MOIST LAYER IS SHALLOW ON
PROG SOUNDINGS. CONVECTION ACRS THE FA WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED BY
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE MON AFTN. HOWEVER...LATE MONDAY THE RIDGE
COLLAPSES AS TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME OF THE 09Z SREF
MEMBERS INDICATED THE CAP WILL BREAK AS EARLY AS MON EVENING...AND
SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED IF THAT SCENARIO
HAPPENED EARLY ENOUGH. MORE LIKELY THOUGH...THE INVERSION DISSOLVES
CLOSER TO TUE MRNG AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN AHEAD OF IMPENDING FROPA.
POPS WILL BE REINTRODUCED INTO THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG AS FRONTAL
MOISTURE SPREADS IN WITH WEAK UPSLOPING.

DECENT SFC BASED CAPE DOES DEVELOP OVER THE FA AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY. NONE OF THE SHEAR PARAMETERS LOOK THREATENING FOR SEVERE
WX...AND WITH THE STRONGER FORCING BEING WELL TO OUR NORTH THE QPF IS
LIGHT ON ALL THE CONSULTED GUIDANCE. BEST INSTABILITY IS SHOWN OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING CAPE PEAKING AROUND
1000 J. DCAPE IS ALSO FAIRLY HIGH ON GFS WHICH HAS FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD
BASES...SO THERE MAY BE A LOW-END PULSE STORM WIND THREAT. POPS
DIMINISH LATE TUE FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL PEAK AND AS THE FRONT
DEPARTS. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ON NW FLOW TUE NIGHT MIGHT PRODUCE
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE MTNS. WINDS MAY ALSO BE MODERATELY
GUSTY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

COOL WEDGY TEMPS CONTINUE ACRS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO FOR MON AND TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...STRONG LATITUDINAL UPPER RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST EARLY WED AND PUSH EAST OVER THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THU. THIS WILL BRING DOWN A STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH AND
ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYERED DRYING WHILE THE HIGH SETTLES INTO AN ATL
RIDGE CONFIG THU. THERE WILL BE SOME MEASURE OF AN AIRMASS MIX WED
MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN ZONES WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE HELD A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL AIDE IN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
NON/MTNS...WHILE THE MTNS VALLEYS REACH RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. THE
LLVL FLOW VEERS S/LY THU AND ALLOWS A BETTER MODIFICATION OF SFC
BASED THETA/E AND TEMPS/TDS WILL RESPOND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.
ALL IN ALL...BOTH DAYS SHOULD MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT WITH TD/S
REMAINING BELOW 50 F MOST LOCALES.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THU NIGHT AS AN H5 LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OP MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
NATURE OF THIS LOW WITH THE 12Z GFS CLOSING IT OFF AND PRODUCING A
SLOWER SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY ABOUT 12 HRS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GEFS
MEAN HEIGHTS/MSLP ARE A PRETTY GOOD COMPROMISE AS FAR AS TIMING AND
THIS WAS GIVEN THE MOST WEIGHT IN THE FCST. THERE ARE ALSO NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMOUNT OF THE GOM RIDGING AND AVAILABLE MOIST
FLUX AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT FRI. THE ECMWF SETS UP A STRONGER LLVL
RIDGE AND THUS DISRUPTS THE MOIST GOM FLOW MORESO THAN THE
GFS...LEAVING A DRY FROPA BY FRI NIGHT. IN ANY CASE THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH ISEN LIFT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOL PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
BEGINNING EARLY FRI WITH AN INCREASE TO SCT COVERAGE ACROSS THE NC
MTNS BY THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF ELCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES FRI AFTERNOON...SO THUNDER
MENTION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD. DONT SEE
ENOUGH IN THE DYNAMICS TO SUSPECT A SEVERE POTENTIAL ATTM AS UPPER
FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND SHEAR LEVELS ARE MODERATE AT BEST. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR
THE AIRFIELD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR ADVECTING IN ON NE FLOW IS KEEPING ALL CIGS AND VSBY VFR
EVEN IN THE BETTER PRECIPITATION...SO WILL RIDE ON VFR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN THE NE FLOW...BUT WITH
BETTER GUSTS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MIXING. WILL ALLOW VFR
CIGS TO SCATTER OUT BY 16Z AND THEN LEAN TOWARD LESS CLOUDS AS
INDICATED ON THE GFS/ECM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...ALL LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE FOOTHILL AND MTN TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ON NE
FLOW IS KEEPING VSBY AND CIGS AT VFR LEVELS AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST.
KAVL TO KAND ARE THE SITES OF MOST CONCERN. KAVL WILL BE SHELTERED
TO THE DRIER NE FLOW...AND KAND WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYING. THESE LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO FEATURE AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON NE FLOW AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN WITH MIXING.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY. A FAIRLY WET
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON TUE...WITH DRYING RETURNING MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 200247
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
BROAD AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...THE DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP BAND...WHICH HAS BEEN
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC AND EXTREME NORTHERN SC
FOR MUCH OF THE PAST 8 HOURS...IS FINALLY SHOWING SOME CHINKS IN THE
ARMOR LATE THIS EVENING...ERODING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK...AND
GENERALLY BECOMING MORE RAGGED AND LESS INTENSE FROM A RADAR
PERSPECTIVE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE WEST AND
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND CATEGORICAL POPS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ZONES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. IN
LIGHT OF THE 2-3 INCH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS SEEN OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT...WE STILL COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HIGH WATER ISSUES...
PRIMARILY IN THE URBAN AREAS...SEE CURRENT FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE
LATEST INFO.

CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY...IF AT ALL...AND LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN TEMPS.

AS OF 750 PM SATURDAY...DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN SHIELD SHOWS NO SIGNS
OF RELENTING THIS EVENING. IN FACT...WE/VE SEEN RATES INCREASE QUITE
A BIT ACROSS WESTERN NC SINCE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL METAR SITES. EXPECT THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE PRECIP SHIELD TO GRADUALLY ERODE...AS THE PRECIP BAND
EXHIBITS A GRADUAL EAST/SOUTHEAST DRIFT. THE MAIN HYDRO THREAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARLOTTE METRO...WHICH HAS SEEN WIDESPREAD 2+
INCH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS...AND WHERE OCCL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS OF 445 PM SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE EAST
AND OFF THE GA/SC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY SHRINK IN
COVERAGE AND MOVE/SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE INTERIM...
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-EVENING OR SO ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NC ZONES...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SC PIEDMONT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN A
HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH SOME ENHANCEMENT IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT...OWING TO AN IMPROVING EASTERLY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE
SEEN THERE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE 12 UTC RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS BOTH
HAVE A POTENT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK ROUNDING THE EAST SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW ATTM. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK...PRETTY MUCH OVER THE HEART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I JUST SAW A PIREP ISSUED BY THE ZTL CWSU THAT
SEVERAL AIRCRAFT HAVE REPORTED MODERATE TURBULENCE IN THE VCNTY OF
KCLT WITH THIS AREA OF UPPER ASCENT. THE GFS 18 UTC AGEOSTROPHIC
VERTICAL CIRCULATION OVER WRN NC IS ABOUT AS STRONG AS IT GETS. ALL
OF THIS EXPLAINS THE INCREASE IN RAINFALL OVER WRN NC...ESP THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND THE NRN UPSTATE. WHILE THE PW/S ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE...THE ZONAL COMPONENT OF THE H8 FLOW ON THE GFS
CONTINUES TO RUN 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BASED ON
THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON THE REGIONAL IR IMAGERY...I SUSPECT THAT
WE WILL SEE MODERATE RAIN FALL ACROSS THESE ZONES FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER 4 TO 6 HORUS. THIS SHOULD YIELD ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF AROUND A HALF INCH...POSSIBLY UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
CONCERNS...THOUGH A FEW LARGER STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVER MAY
APPROACH BANKFULL.

THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT...THOUGH THERE IS SOME HOPE OF CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THE WESTERN MOST FOOTHILLS. STILL...SUNRISE SERVICES WILL
PROBABLY BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES FROM TODAY/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF MIDDAY SATURDAY...SHORT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEEP LOW MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MAINTAINING
NORTHERLY LLVL FLOW INTO MONDAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FA LATE SUNDAY THUS GETS SHUNTED
OFF TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WHILE SOME LLVL MOISTURE DOES ADVECT
INTO THE WRN FA AS THE FLOW BACKS. THIS MOIST LAYER IS SHALLOW ON
PROG SOUNDINGS. CONVECTION ACRS THE FA WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED BY
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE MON AFTN. HOWEVER...LATE MONDAY THE RIDGE
COLLAPSES AS TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME OF THE 09Z SREF
MEMBERS INDICATED THE CAP WILL BREAK AS EARLY AS MON EVENING...AND
SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED IF THAT SCENARIO
HAPPENED EARLY ENOUGH. MORE LIKELY THOUGH...THE INVERSION DISSOLVES
CLOSER TO TUE MRNG AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN AHEAD OF IMPENDING FROPA.
POPS WILL BE REINTRODUCED INTO THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG AS FRONTAL
MOISTURE SPREADS IN WITH WEAK UPSLOPING.

DECENT SFC BASED CAPE DOES DEVELOP OVER THE FA AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY. NONE OF THE SHEAR PARAMETERS LOOK THREATENING FOR SEVERE
WX...AND WITH THE STRONGER FORCING BEING WELL TO OUR NORTH THE QPF IS
LIGHT ON ALL THE CONSULTED GUIDANCE. BEST INSTABILITY IS SHOWN OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING CAPE PEAKING AROUND
1000 J. DCAPE IS ALSO FAIRLY HIGH ON GFS WHICH HAS FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD
BASES...SO THERE MAY BE A LOW-END PULSE STORM WIND THREAT. POPS
DIMINISH LATE TUE FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL PEAK AND AS THE FRONT
DEPARTS. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ON NW FLOW TUE NIGHT MIGHT PRODUCE
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE MTNS. WINDS MAY ALSO BE MODERATELY
GUSTY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

COOL WEDGY TEMPS CONTINUE ACRS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO FOR MON AND TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...STRONG LATITUDINAL UPPER RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST EARLY WED AND PUSH EAST OVER THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THU. THIS WILL BRING DOWN A STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH AND
ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYERED DRYING WHILE THE HIGH SETTLES INTO AN ATL
RIDGE CONFIG THU. THERE WILL BE SOME MEASURE OF AN AIRMASS MIX WED
MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN ZONES WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE HELD A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL AIDE IN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
NON/MTNS...WHILE THE MTNS VALLEYS REACH RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. THE
LLVL FLOW VEERS S/LY THU AND ALLOWS A BETTER MODIFICATION OF SFC
BASED THETA/E AND TEMPS/TDS WILL RESPOND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.
ALL IN ALL...BOTH DAYS SHOULD MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT WITH TD/S
REMAINING BELOW 50 F MOST LOCALES.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THU NIGHT AS AN H5 LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OP MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
NATURE OF THIS LOW WITH THE 12Z GFS CLOSING IT OFF AND PRODUCING A
SLOWER SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY ABOUT 12 HRS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GEFS
MEAN HEIGHTS/MSLP ARE A PRETTY GOOD COMPROMISE AS FAR AS TIMING AND
THIS WAS GIVEN THE MOST WEIGHT IN THE FCST. THERE ARE ALSO NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMOUNT OF THE GOM RIDGING AND AVAILABLE MOIST
FLUX AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT FRI. THE ECMWF SETS UP A STRONGER LLVL
RIDGE AND THUS DISRUPTS THE MOIST GOM FLOW MORESO THAN THE
GFS...LEAVING A DRY FROPA BY FRI NIGHT. IN ANY CASE THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH ISEN LIFT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOL PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
BEGINNING EARLY FRI WITH AN INCREASE TO SCT COVERAGE ACROSS THE NC
MTNS BY THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF ELCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES FRI AFTERNOON...SO THUNDER
MENTION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD. DONT SEE
ENOUGH IN THE DYNAMICS TO SUSPECT A SEVERE POTENTIAL ATTM AS UPPER
FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND SHEAR LEVELS ARE MODERATE AT BEST. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERING IN ON NE WINDS HAS RESULTED
IN CIGS LIFTING TO VFR...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
STRAY MVFR CIG THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF IFR VISBY IN
MOD/HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE OVERNIGHT...OCCL VISBY RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 09Z. N/NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. VFR CIGS
(050-080 RANGE) SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING
HOURS...GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN IS WIDESPREAD FROM
ROUGHLY THE NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTH TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR
IN NC. ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT PERHAPS KAND WILL SEE PERIODS OF RAIN
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH OCCL VISBY RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY...ESP AT KAVL. OTHERWISE...WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CIG ISSUES...AS CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AT MOST
TERMINALS...AND WITH NE WINDS GRADUALLY INTRODUCING DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR TO THE REGION...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL INCREASE FARTHER SOUTH
(ESP AT KAND). N/NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND 10-15
KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/FHILLS (MUCH LIGHTER AT KAVL) THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE
MTN VALLEYS THIS EVENING...BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL THEN DEVELOP MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 192358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
758 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
BROAD AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SATURDAY...DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN SHIELD SHOWS NO SIGNS
OF RELENTING THIS EVENING. IN FACT...WE/VE SEEN RATES INCREASE QUITE
A BIT ACROSS WESTERN NC SINCE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL METAR SITES. EXPECT THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE PRECIP SHIELD TO GRADUALLY ERODE...AS THE PRECIP BAND
EXHIBITS A GRADUAL EAST/SOUTHEAST DRIFT. THE MAIN HYDRO THREAT AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARLOTTE METRO...WHICH HAS SEEN WIDESPREAD 2+
INCH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS...AND WHERE OCCL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS OF 445 PM SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE EAST
AND OFF THE GA/SC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY SHRINK IN
COVERAGE AND MOVE/SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE INTERIM...
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-EVENING OR SO ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NC ZONES...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SC PIEDMONT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN A
HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH SOME ENHANCEMENT IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT...OWING TO AN IMPROVING EASTERLY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE
SEEN THERE.

AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE 12 UTC RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS BOTH
HAVE A POTENT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK ROUNDING THE EAST SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW ATTM. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK...PRETTY MUCH OVER THE HEART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I JUST SAW A PIREP ISSUED BY THE ZTL CWSU THAT
SEVERAL AIRCRAFT HAVE REPORTED MODERATE TURBULENCE IN THE VCNTY OF
KCLT WITH THIS AREA OF UPPER ASCENT. THE GFS 18 UTC AGEOSTROPHIC
VERTICAL CIRCULATION OVER WRN NC IS ABOUT AS STRONG AS IT GETS. ALL
OF THIS EXPLAINS THE INCREASE IN RAINFALL OVER WRN NC...ESP THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND THE NRN UPSTATE. WHILE THE PW/S ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE...THE ZONAL COMPONENT OF THE H8 FLOW ON THE GFS
CONTINUES TO RUN 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BASED ON
THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON THE REGIONAL IR IMAGERY...I SUSPECT THAT
WE WILL SEE MODERATE RAIN FALL ACROSS THESE ZONES FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER 4 TO 6 HORUS. THIS SHOULD YIELD ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF AROUND A HALF INCH...POSSIBLY UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
CONCERNS...THOUGH A FEW LARGER STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVER MAY
APPROACH BANKFULL.

THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT...THOUGH THERE IS SOME HOPE OF CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THE WESTERN MOST FOOTHILLS. STILL...SUNRISE SERVICES WILL
PROBABLY BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES FROM TODAY/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF MIDDAY SATURDAY...SHORT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEEP LOW MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MAINTAINING
NORTHERLY LLVL FLOW INTO MONDAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FA LATE SUNDAY THUS GETS SHUNTED
OFF TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WHILE SOME LLVL MOISTURE DOES ADVECT
INTO THE WRN FA AS THE FLOW BACKS. THIS MOIST LAYER IS SHALLOW ON
PROG SOUNDINGS. CONVECTION ACRS THE FA WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED BY
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE MON AFTN. HOWEVER...LATE MONDAY THE RIDGE
COLLAPSES AS TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME OF THE 09Z SREF
MEMBERS INDICATED THE CAP WILL BREAK AS EARLY AS MON EVENING...AND
SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED IF THAT SCENARIO
HAPPENED EARLY ENOUGH. MORE LIKELY THOUGH...THE INVERSION DISSOLVES
CLOSER TO TUE MRNG AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN AHEAD OF IMPENDING FROPA.
POPS WILL BE REINTRODUCED INTO THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG AS FRONTAL
MOISTURE SPREADS IN WITH WEAK UPSLOPING.

DECENT SFC BASED CAPE DOES DEVELOP OVER THE FA AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY. NONE OF THE SHEAR PARAMETERS LOOK THREATENING FOR SEVERE
WX...AND WITH THE STRONGER FORCING BEING WELL TO OUR NORTH THE QPF IS
LIGHT ON ALL THE CONSULTED GUIDANCE. BEST INSTABILITY IS SHOWN OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING CAPE PEAKING AROUND
1000 J. DCAPE IS ALSO FAIRLY HIGH ON GFS WHICH HAS FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD
BASES...SO THERE MAY BE A LOW-END PULSE STORM WIND THREAT. POPS
DIMINISH LATE TUE FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL PEAK AND AS THE FRONT
DEPARTS. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ON NW FLOW TUE NIGHT MIGHT PRODUCE
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE MTNS. WINDS MAY ALSO BE MODERATELY
GUSTY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

COOL WEDGY TEMPS CONTINUE ACRS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO FOR MON AND TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...STRONG LATITUDINAL UPPER RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST EARLY WED AND PUSH EAST OVER THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THU. THIS WILL BRING DOWN A STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH AND
ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYERED DRYING WHILE THE HIGH SETTLES INTO AN ATL
RIDGE CONFIG THU. THERE WILL BE SOME MEASURE OF AN AIRMASS MIX WED
MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN ZONES WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE HELD A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL AIDE IN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
NON/MTNS...WHILE THE MTNS VALLEYS REACH RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. THE
LLVL FLOW VEERS S/LY THU AND ALLOWS A BETTER MODIFICATION OF SFC
BASED THETA/E AND TEMPS/TDS WILL RESPOND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.
ALL IN ALL...BOTH DAYS SHOULD MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT WITH TD/S
REMAINING BELOW 50 F MOST LOCALES.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THU NIGHT AS AN H5 LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OP MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
NATURE OF THIS LOW WITH THE 12Z GFS CLOSING IT OFF AND PRODUCING A
SLOWER SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY ABOUT 12 HRS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GEFS
MEAN HEIGHTS/MSLP ARE A PRETTY GOOD COMPROMISE AS FAR AS TIMING AND
THIS WAS GIVEN THE MOST WEIGHT IN THE FCST. THERE ARE ALSO NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMOUNT OF THE GOM RIDGING AND AVAILABLE MOIST
FLUX AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT FRI. THE ECMWF SETS UP A STRONGER LLVL
RIDGE AND THUS DISRUPTS THE MOIST GOM FLOW MORESO THAN THE
GFS...LEAVING A DRY FROPA BY FRI NIGHT. IN ANY CASE THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH ISEN LIFT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOL PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
BEGINNING EARLY FRI WITH AN INCREASE TO SCT COVERAGE ACROSS THE NC
MTNS BY THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF ELCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES FRI AFTERNOON...SO THUNDER
MENTION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD. DONT SEE
ENOUGH IN THE DYNAMICS TO SUSPECT A SEVERE POTENTIAL ATTM AS UPPER
FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND SHEAR LEVELS ARE MODERATE AT BEST. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERING IN ON NE WINDS HAS RESULTED
IN CIGS LIFTING TO VFR...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
STRAY MVFR CIG THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF IFR VISBY IN
MOD/HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE OVERNIGHT...OCCL VISBY RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 09Z. N/NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. VFR CIGS
(050-080 RANGE) SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING
HOURS...GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN IS WIDESPREAD FROM
ROUGHLY THE NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTH TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR
IN NC. ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT PERHAPS KAND WILL SEE PERIODS OF RAIN
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH OCCL VISBY RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY...ESP AT KAVL. OTHERWISE...WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CIG ISSUES...AS CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AT MOST
TERMINALS...AND WITH NE WINDS GRADUALLY INTRODUCING DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR TO THE REGION...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL INCREASE FARTHER SOUTH
(ESP AT KAND). N/NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND 10-15
KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/FHILLS (MUCH LIGHTER AT KAVL) THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE
MTN VALLEYS THIS EVENING...BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL THEN DEVELOP MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       MED   76%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  81%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  81%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL








000
FXUS62 KGSP 191856
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
BROAD AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE 12 UTC RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS BOTH
HAVE A POTENT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK ROUNDING THE EAST SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW ATTM. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK...PRETTY MUCH OVER THE HEART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I JUST SAW A PIREP ISSUED BY THE ZTL CWSU THAT
SEVERAL AIRCRAFT HAVE REPORTED MODERATE TURBULENCE IN THE VCNTY OF
KCLT WITH THIS AREA OF UPPER ASCENT. THE GFS 18 UTC AGEOSTROPHIC
VERTICAL CIRCULATION OVER WRN NC IS ABOUT AS STRONG AS IT GETS. ALL
OF THIS EXPLAINS THE INCREASE IN RAINFALL OVER WRN NC...ESP THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND THE NRN UPSTATE. WHILE THE PW/S ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE...THE ZONAL COMPONENT OF THE H8 FLOW ON THE GFS
CONTINUES TO RUN 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BASED ON
THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON THE REGIONAL IR IMAGERY...I SUSPECT THAT
WE WILL SEE MODERATE RAIN FALL ACROSS THESE ZONES FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER 4 TO 6 HORUS. THIS SHOULD YIELD ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF AROUND A HALF INCH...POSSIBLY UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
CONCERNS...THOUGH A FEW LARGER STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVER MAY
APPROACH BANKFULL.

THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT...THOUGH THERE IS SOME HOPE OF CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THE WESTERN MOST FOOTHILLS. STILL...SUNRISE SERVICES WILL
PROBABLY BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES FROM TODAY/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF MIDDAY SATURDAY...SHORT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEEP LOW MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MAINTAINING
NORTHERLY LLVL FLOW INTO MONDAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FA LATE SUNDAY THUS GETS SHUNTED
OFF TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WHILE SOME LLVL MOISTURE DOES ADVECT
INTO THE WRN FA AS THE FLOW BACKS. THIS MOIST LAYER IS SHALLOW ON
PROG SOUNDINGS. CONVECTION ACRS THE FA WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED BY
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE MON AFTN. HOWEVER...LATE MONDAY THE RIDGE
COLLAPSES AS TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME OF THE 09Z SREF
MEMBERS INDICATED THE CAP WILL BREAK AS EARLY AS MON EVENING...AND
SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED IF THAT SCENARIO
HAPPENED EARLY ENOUGH. MORE LIKELY THOUGH...THE INVERSION DISSOLVES
CLOSER TO TUE MRNG AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN AHEAD OF IMPENDING FROPA.
POPS WILL BE REINTRODUCED INTO THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG AS FRONTAL
MOISTURE SPREADS IN WITH WEAK UPSLOPING.

DECENT SFC BASED CAPE DOES DEVELOP OVER THE FA AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY. NONE OF THE SHEAR PARAMETERS LOOK THREATENING FOR SEVERE
WX...AND WITH THE STRONGER FORCING BEING WELL TO OUR NORTH THE QPF IS
LIGHT ON ALL THE CONSULTED GUIDANCE. BEST INSTABILITY IS SHOWN OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING CAPE PEAKING AROUND
1000 J. DCAPE IS ALSO FAIRLY HIGH ON GFS WHICH HAS FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD
BASES...SO THERE MAY BE A LOW-END PULSE STORM WIND THREAT. POPS
DIMINISH LATE TUE FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL PEAK AND AS THE FRONT
DEPARTS. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ON NW FLOW TUE NIGHT MIGHT PRODUCE
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE MTNS. WINDS MAY ALSO BE MODERATELY
GUSTY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

COOL WEDGY TEMPS CONTINUE ACRS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO FOR MON AND TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...STRONG LATITUDINAL UPPER RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST EARLY WED AND PUSH EAST OVER THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THU. THIS WILL BRING DOWN A STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH AND
ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYERED DRYING WHILE THE HIGH SETTLES INTO AN ATL
RIDGE CONFIG THU. THERE WILL BE SOME MEASURE OF AN AIRMASS MIX WED
MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN ZONES WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE HELD A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL AIDE IN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
NON/MTNS...WHILE THE MTNS VALLEYS REACH RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. THE
LLVL FLOW VEERS S/LY THU AND ALLOWS A BETTER MODIFICATION OF SFC
BASED THETA/E AND TEMPS/TDS WILL RESPOND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.
ALL IN ALL...BOTH DAYS SHOULD MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT WITH TD/S
REMAINING BELOW 50 F MOST LOCALES.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THU NIGHT AS AN H5 LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OP MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
NATURE OF THIS LOW WITH THE 12Z GFS CLOSING IT OFF AND PRODUCING A
SLOWER SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY ABOUT 12 HRS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GEFS
MEAN HEIGHTS/MSLP ARE A PRETTY GOOD COMPROMISE AS FAR AS TIMING AND
THIS WAS GIVEN THE MOST WEIGHT IN THE FCST. THERE ARE ALSO NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMOUNT OF THE GOM RIDGING AND AVAILABLE MOIST
FLUX AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT FRI. THE ECMWF SETS UP A STRONGER LLVL
RIDGE AND THUS DISRUPTS THE MOIST GOM FLOW MORESO THAN THE
GFS...LEAVING A DRY FROPA BY FRI NIGHT. IN ANY CASE THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH ISEN LIFT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOL PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
BEGINNING EARLY FRI WITH AN INCREASE TO SCT COVERAGE ACROSS THE NC
MTNS BY THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF ELCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES FRI AFTERNOON...SO THUNDER
MENTION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD. DONT SEE
ENOUGH IN THE DYNAMICS TO SUSPECT A SEVERE POTENTIAL ATTM AS UPPER
FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND SHEAR LEVELS ARE MODERATE AT BEST. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN NC...THOUGH THE HEAVIER RAIN IS LOCATED A
LITTLE WAYS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE KCLT AIRFIELD. AS LONG AS
THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE SATURATED BY PCPN...IFR CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AIRFIELDS...ESPECIALLY AT KCLT AND THE
UPSTATE SITES. IFR CIGS WERE KEPT AT KCLT THROUGH 21 UTC WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...I SUSPECT THAT IFR COULD CONTINUE
LONGER THAN THIS AT KCLT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM KCLT DOWN TO KAND. WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS
SHOULD BE COMMON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY LATE EVENING ONCE THE
PCPN STARTS TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL THEN DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A
FAIRLY WET FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z
KCLT       MED   70%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       LOW   59%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   69%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       LOW   56%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   70%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...MCAVOY







000
FXUS62 KGSP 191752
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
TODAY...AND CONTINUE TRACKING EAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
BROAD AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER OVER WESTERN NC AND THE NRN UPSTATE OF SC.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. UPPER DIVERGENCE
REMAINS STRONG THROUGH 00 UTC AND THE RAIN SHOULD FALL FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS. THE POPS GENERALLY REFLECT THIS...THOUGH I WILL INCREASE
THEM SOME WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. I HAVEN/T SEEN MUCH GROUND
TRUTH ON RAINFALL RATES YET...THOUGH I DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING.

AS OF 1035 AM EDT SATURDAY...DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN CONTINUES ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN NC AND THE NRN UPSTATE. IN FACT...RADAR RETURNS ARE
INCREASING AND COOLER CLOUD TOPS ARE WRAPPING INTO THIS REGION FROM
THE WEST. PER THE ECMWF AND NAM I SEE NO REASON WHY IT WON/T
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND I/VE
INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL...THE RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS...THOUGH
SOME OF THE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
MAY EXPERIENCE SOME LOW END FLOODING DUE TO THE PROTRACTED NATURE OF
THE 0.10 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES AND SATURATED GROUND. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KTS ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL.

AS OF 700 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A TONGUE OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SW HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY TRANSITIONED
TO DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS...AND POPS HAVE BEEN PARED BACK FROM THE
SW WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE
INCREASINGLY STACKED SE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EWD
TOWARD THE COAST. STILL ANTICIPATE A BRIEF RESURGENCE IN FORCING 12Z
TO 18Z AS DEEP LAYER QG FORCING CROSSES THE REGION AND AN AXIS OF
FRONTOGENESIS PERSISTS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTN BEFORE WEAKENING LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE GREATEST
QPF SHOULD IMPACT THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK
RAINFALL RATES OBSERVED THUS FAR...AS WELL AS THE FFG AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE VALUES...IT APPEARS THAT ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS WILL BE QUITE
ISOLATED.

IN ADDITION...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL CAUSE NE WINDS TO
PICK UP...WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 30 MPH AT
TIMES THIS AFTN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SFC CAD REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE FAIRLY SMALL.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS ON SUNDAY...WITH
WRAP-AROUND CLOUD COVER AND DECENT NELY LLVL FLOW LINGERING ATOP THE
CWFA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE POPS SHUD PRETTY MUCH BE OVER ACRS THE AREA
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT A SLGT CHC DOES LINGER IN THE SE ZONES THRU
MIDDAY. WITH THE COOL NE FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS...I UNDERCUT MOS
TEMPS...ESP IN THE EAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING RIPPLES ACRS THE AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVING WITHIN INCREASING WLY
FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHWRS ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER OVERNIGHT. BUT
OTHERWISE...JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND TEMPS A COUPLE CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING A
COLD FROPA ACRS THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAKLY FORCED. BUT THERE SHUD BE ENUF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE COUPLED
WITH LLVL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHWRS WITH THE FRONT. THE TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR ABOUT
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING INSTBY...WITH THE GFS MOST BULLISH WITH UP
TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BY 18Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...I THINK THE
DOWNSLOPE W/NW LLVL FLOW WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND OVERALL INSTBY. THE
GFS HODOGRAPHS ALSO DON/T SHOW MUCH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL W/NW FLOW ONLY INCREASING TO ABOUT
30 KTS IN THE MID LVLS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...UPR 70S TO LWR
80S EAST OF THE MTNS...ASSUMING FRONT PUSHES THRU LATE AFTN/EVE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU END OF THE WEEK...UPR FLOW CONTINUES TO BE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ANOTHER UPR RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LATITUDINAL TROF APPROACHING THE AREA
FRIDAY. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE SFC
HIGH PRES CENTER TRANSLATING EAST ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC
POPS CREEPING BACK IN BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN NC...THOUGH THE HEAVIER RAIN IS LOCATED A
LITTLE WAYS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE KCLT AIRFIELD. AS LONG AS
THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE SATURATED BY PCPN...IFR CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AIRFIELDS...ESPECIALLY AT KCLT AND THE
UPSTATE SITES. IFR CIGS WERE KEPT AT KCLT THROUGH 21 UTC WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...I SUSPECT THAT IFR COULD CONTINUE
LONGER THAN THIS AT KCLT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM KCLT DOWN TO KAND. WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS
SHOULD BE COMMON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY LATE EVENING ONCE THE
PCPN STARTS TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL THEN DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A
FAIRLY WET FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       MED   73%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       LOW   59%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   72%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     MED   78%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       LOW   51%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   71%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...MCAVOY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 191442
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1042 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
TODAY...AND CONTINUE TRACKING EAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
BROAD AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT SATURDAY...DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN CONTINUES ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN NC AND THE NRN UPSTATE. IN FACT...RADAR RETURNS ARE
INCREASING AND COOLER CLOUD TOPS ARE WRAPPING INTO THIS REGION FROM
THE WEST. PER THE ECMWF AND NAM I SEE NO REASON WHY IT WON/T
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND I/VE
INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL...THE RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS...THOUGH
SOME OF THE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
MAY EXPERIENCE SOME LOW END FLOODING DUE TO THE PROTRACTED NATURE OF
THE 0.10 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES AND SATURATED GROUND. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KTS ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL.

AS OF 700 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A TONGUE OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SW HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY TRANSITIONED
TO DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS...AND POPS HAVE BEEN PARED BACK FROM THE
SW WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE
INCREASINGLY STACKED SE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EWD
TOWARD THE COAST. STILL ANTICIPATE A BRIEF RESURGENCE IN FORCING 12Z
TO 18Z AS DEEP LAYER QG FORCING CROSSES THE REGION AND AN AXIS OF
FRONTOGENESIS PERSISTS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTN BEFORE WEAKENING LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE GREATEST
QPF SHOULD IMPACT THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK
RAINFALL RATES OBSERVED THUS FAR...AS WELL AS THE FFG AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE VALUES...IT APPEARS THAT ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS WILL BE QUITE
ISOLATED.

IN ADDITION...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL CAUSE NE WINDS TO
PICK UP...WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 30 MPH AT
TIMES THIS AFTN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SFC CAD REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE FAIRLY SMALL.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS ON SUNDAY...WITH
WRAP-AROUND CLOUD COVER AND DECENT NELY LLVL FLOW LINGERING ATOP THE
CWFA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE POPS SHUD PRETTY MUCH BE OVER ACRS THE AREA
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT A SLGT CHC DOES LINGER IN THE SE ZONES THRU
MIDDAY. WITH THE COOL NE FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS...I UNDERCUT MOS
TEMPS...ESP IN THE EAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING RIPPLES ACRS THE AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVING WITHIN INCREASING WLY
FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHWRS ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER OVERNIGHT. BUT
OTHERWISE...JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND TEMPS A COUPLE CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING A
COLD FROPA ACRS THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAKLY FORCED. BUT THERE SHUD BE ENUF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE COUPLED
WITH LLVL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHWRS WITH THE FRONT. THE TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR ABOUT
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING INSTBY...WITH THE GFS MOST BULLISH WITH UP
TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BY 18Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...I THINK THE
DOWNSLOPE W/NW LLVL FLOW WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND OVERALL INSTBY. THE
GFS HODOGRAPHS ALSO DON/T SHOW MUCH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL W/NW FLOW ONLY INCREASING TO ABOUT
30 KTS IN THE MID LVLS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...UPR 70S TO LWR
80S EAST OF THE MTNS...ASSUMING FRONT PUSHES THRU LATE AFTN/EVE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU END OF THE WEEK...UPR FLOW CONTINUES TO BE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ANOTHER UPR RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LATITUDINAL TROF APPROACHING THE AREA
FRIDAY. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE SFC
HIGH PRES CENTER TRANSLATING EAST ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC
POPS CREEPING BACK IN BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION OVER OR NEAR THE AIRFIELD
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH 15Z...WITH MAINLY MVFR
CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT SHOULD
EASILY PRODUCE GUSTS INTO THE 20S THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS AND THE MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOWER.

AT KAVL AND KHKY...PRECIPITATION RATES IN AND NEAR THE DEFORMATION
ZONE SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW CIGS TO STAY MAINLY VFR TEMPO
MVFR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MORE SOLID VFR TONIGHT.
BRIEF N TO NE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS WELL...BUT WITH LESS
MAGNITUDE THAN TAF LOCATIONS FARTHER SE.

AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS WORKED
IN OVER THE SC TAFS. THIS HAS LESSENED THE PRECIPITATION TO DRIZZLE
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN...AND ALLOWED CIGS TO DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AT
TIMES. MAINLY IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
THE REST OF THE DAY...IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT. NE FLOW WILL
STEADILY INCREASE AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT
WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...CEILING RESTRICTIONS MAY WELL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOISTURE PULLS AWAY WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY HIGH PRES WILL THEN DEVELOP THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH  87%     MED   69%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   75%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   66%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  84%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  89%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 191106
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
706 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
TODAY...AND CONTINUE TRACKING EAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
BROAD AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A TONGUE OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SW HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY TRANSITIONED
TO DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS...AND POPS HAVE BEEN PARED BACK FROM THE
SW WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE
INCREASINGLY STACKED SE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EWD
TOWARD THE COAST. STILL ANTICIPATE A BRIEF RESURGENCE IN FORCING 12Z
TO 18Z AS DEEP LAYER QG FORCING CROSSES THE REGION AND AN AXIS OF
FRONTOGENESIS PERSISTS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTN BEFORE WEAKENING LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE GREATEST
QPF SHOULD IMPACT THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK
RAINFALL RATES OBSERVED THUS FAR...AS WELL AS THE FFG AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE VALUES...IT APPEARS THAT ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS WILL BE QUITE
ISOLATED.

IN ADDITION...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL CAUSE NE WINDS TO
PICK UP...WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 30 MPH AT
TIMES THIS AFTN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SFC CAD REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE FAIRLY SMALL.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS ON SUNDAY...WITH
WRAP-AROUND CLOUD COVER AND DECENT NELY LLVL FLOW LINGERING ATOP THE
CWFA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE POPS SHUD PRETTY MUCH BE OVER ACRS THE AREA
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT A SLGT CHC DOES LINGER IN THE SE ZONES THRU
MIDDAY. WITH THE COOL NE FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS...I UNDERCUT MOS
TEMPS...ESP IN THE EAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING RIPPLES ACRS THE AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVING WITHIN INCREASING WLY
FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHWRS ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER OVERNIGHT. BUT
OTHERWISE...JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND TEMPS A COUPLE CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING A
COLD FROPA ACRS THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAKLY FORCED. BUT THERE SHUD BE ENUF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE COUPLED
WITH LLVL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHWRS WITH THE FRONT. THE TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR ABOUT
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING INSTBY...WITH THE GFS MOST BULLISH WITH UP
TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BY 18Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...I THINK THE
DOWNSLOPE W/NW LLVL FLOW WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND OVERALL INSTBY. THE
GFS HODOGRAPHS ALSO DON/T SHOW MUCH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL W/NW FLOW ONLY INCREASING TO ABOUT
30 KTS IN THE MID LVLS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...UPR 70S TO LWR
80S EAST OF THE MTNS...ASSUMING FRONT PUSHES THRU LATE AFTN/EVE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU END OF THE WEEK...UPR FLOW CONTINUES TO BE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ANOTHER UPR RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LATITUDINAL TROF APPROACHING THE AREA
FRIDAY. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE SFC
HIGH PRES CENTER TRANSLATING EAST ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC
POPS CREEPING BACK IN BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION OVER OR NEAR THE AIRFIELD
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH 15Z...WITH MAINLY MVFR
CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT SHOULD
EASILY PRODUCE GUSTS INTO THE 20S THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS AND THE MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOWER.

AT KAVL AND KHKY...PRECIPITATION RATES IN AND NEAR THE DEFORMATION
ZONE SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW CIGS TO STAY MAINLY VFR TEMPO
MVFR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MORE SOLID VFR TONIGHT.
BRIEF N TO NE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS WELL...BUT WITH LESS
MAGNITUDE THAN TAF LOCATIONS FARTHER SE.

AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS WORKED
IN OVER THE SC TAFS. THIS HAS LESSENED THE PRECIPITATION TO DRIZZLE
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN...AND ALLOWED CIGS TO DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AT
TIMES. MAINLY IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
THE REST OF THE DAY...IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT. NE FLOW WILL
STEADILY INCREASE AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND GUSTS TO 25 KT
WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...CEILING RESTRICTIONS MAY WELL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOISTURE PULLS AWAY WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY HIGH PRES WILL THEN DEVELOP THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       HIGH  84%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  94%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  93%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  86%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 190855
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
455 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
TODAY...AND CONTINUE TRACKING EAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
BROAD AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TONGUE OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA THIS
MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY TRANSITIONED TO DRIZZLE IN THESE
AREAS...AND POPS WILL BE PARED BACK FROM THE SW WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE INCREASINGLY STACKED
SE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EWD TOWARD THE COAST.
STILL ANTICIPATE A BRIEF RESURGENCE IN FORCING 12Z TO 18Z AS DEEP
LAYER QG FORCING CROSSES THE REGION AND AN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS
PERSISTS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE GREATEST QPF SHOULD
IMPACT THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK RAINFALL
RATES OBSERVED THUS FAR...AS WELL AS THE FFG AND HEADWATER GUIDANCE
VALUES...IT APPEARS THAT ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED.

IN ADDITION...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL CAUSE NE WINDS TO
PICK UP...WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 30 MPH AT
TIMES THIS AFTN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SFC CAD REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE FAIRLY SMALL.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS ON SUNDAY...WITH
WRAP-AROUND CLOUD COVER AND DECENT NELY LLVL FLOW LINGERING ATOP THE
CWFA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE POPS SHUD PRETTY MUCH BE OVER ACRS THE AREA
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT A SLGT CHC DOES LINGER IN THE SE ZONES THRU
MIDDAY. WITH THE COOL NE FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS...I UNDERCUT MOS
TEMPS...ESP IN THE EAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING RIPPLES ACRS THE AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVING WITHIN INCREASING WLY
FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHWRS ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER OVERNIGHT. BUT
OTHERWISE...JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND TEMPS A COUPLE CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING A
COLD FROPA ACRS THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAKLY FORCED. BUT THERE SHUD BE ENUF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE COUPLED
WITH LLVL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHWRS WITH THE FRONT. THE TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR ABOUT
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING INSTBY...WITH THE GFS MOST BULLISH WITH UP
TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BY 18Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...I THINK THE
DOWNSLOPE W/NW LLVL FLOW WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND OVERALL INSTBY. THE
GFS HODOGRAPHS ALSO DON/T SHOW MUCH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL W/NW FLOW ONLY INCREASING TO ABOUT
30 KTS IN THE MID LVLS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...UPR 70S TO LWR
80S EAST OF THE MTNS...ASSUMING FRONT PUSHES THRU LATE AFTN/EVE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU END OF THE WEEK...UPR FLOW CONTINUES TO BE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ANOTHER UPR RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LATITUDINAL TROF APPROACHING THE AREA
FRIDAY. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE SFC
HIGH PRES CENTER TRANSLATING EAST ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC
POPS CREEPING BACK IN BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONTINUING STEADY RAINFALL WILL KEEP MVFR TO TEMPO IFR
LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE AROUND KCLT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ANTICIPATE MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH PERIODS
OF MODERATE RAINFALL AS THE FRONTOGENESIS MAX PIVOTS OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL TEMPO IFR CIGS MAY LIKELY BE NEEDED IN LATER ISSUANCES.
THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT SHOULD EASILY PRODUCE GUSTS INTO THE
20S THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AT KAVL AND KHKY...THE WESTERN NC TAF SITES WILL BE THE FARTHEST
FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SE LOW...AND THE LEAST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE ANY EXTENDED PERIODS OF IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT FOLLOWING A MOS CONSENSUS OF MAINLY MVFR TO LOWERING
VFR SEEMS REASONABLE. BRIEF N TO NE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS
WELL...BUT WITH LESS MAGNITUDE THAN TAF LOCATIONS FARTHER SE.

AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES...TEMPO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE A
RUN AT THE AIRFIELDS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...ALONG WITH RAIN
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES. WILL FEATURE MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. NE FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND GUSTS TO BETTER THAN 25 KT WILL BE LIKELY
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...CEILING RESTRICTIONS MAY WELL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOISTURE PULLS AWAY WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY HIGH PRES WILL THEN DEVELOP THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z
KCLT       HIGH  96%     HIGH  90%     MED   75%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  85%     HIGH  90%     MED   75%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH  98%     MED   77%     MED   64%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   64%     MED   76%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH  82%     HIGH  90%     MED   71%     HIGH  80%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 190658
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
TODAY...AND CONTINUE TRACKING EAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
BROAD AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING DRY SLOTTING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE SW WHICH WILL CURTAIL POPS AND QPF IN SW
SECTIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE SFC LOW UNDER THE CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EWD ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY
THIS EVENING...WITH A CORRESPONDING GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN AREA PROFILES FROM THE EARLY MORNING MAX VALUES.
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY...DEEP
LAYER QG FORCING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...AN AXIS OF STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING TONIGHT
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY OFFSHORE. THIS FRONTOGENESIS
MAX MAY PIVOT ACROSS PIEDMONT SECTIONS TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL GOING FORWARD ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. SERIOUS
CONSIDERATION HAS BEEN GIVEN TO A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE CLT METRO
AREA...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK RAINFALL RATES THUS FAR...AND THE FFG AND
HEADWATER GUIDANCE VALUES...IT APPEARS THAT ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT ADDRESS ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS AS THEY ARISE WITH SHORTER
FUSE PRODUCTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL
CAUSE NE WINDS TO PICK UP...WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S AND
POSSIBLY ABOVE 30 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SFC
CAD REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMP
RANGE FAIRLY SMALL. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS ON SUNDAY...WITH
WRAP-AROUND CLOUD COVER AND DECENT NELY LLVL FLOW LINGERING ATOP THE
CWFA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE POPS SHUD PRETTY MUCH BE OVER ACRS THE AREA
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT A SLGT CHC DOES LINGER IN THE SE ZONES THRU
MIDDAY. WITH THE COOL NE FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS...I UNDERCUT MOS
TEMPS...ESP IN THE EAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING RIPPLES ACRS THE AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVING WITHIN INCREASING WLY
FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHWRS ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER OVERNIGHT. BUT
OTHERWISE...JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND TEMPS A COUPLE CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING A
COLD FROPA ACRS THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAKLY FORCED. BUT THERE SHUD BE ENUF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE COUPLED
WITH LLVL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHWRS WITH THE FRONT. THE TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR ABOUT
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING INSTBY...WITH THE GFS MOST BULLISH WITH UP
TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BY 18Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...I THINK THE
DOWNSLOPE W/NW LLVL FLOW WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND OVERALL INSTBY. THE
GFS HODOGRAPHS ALSO DON/T SHOW MUCH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL W/NW FLOW ONLY INCREASING TO ABOUT
30 KTS IN THE MID LVLS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...UPR 70S TO LWR
80S EAST OF THE MTNS...ASSUMING FRONT PUSHES THRU LATE AFTN/EVE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU END OF THE WEEK...UPR FLOW CONTINUES TO BE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ANOTHER UPR RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LATITUDINAL TROF APPROACHING THE AREA
FRIDAY. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE SFC
HIGH PRES CENTER TRANSLATING EAST ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC
POPS CREEPING BACK IN BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR TO MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AROUND THE KCLT
AIRFIELD...BUT GUIDANCE INSISTS ON KCLT REMAINING AN ISLAND OF
MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS. STILL THINK THAT MOISTURE AND RAINFALL WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. ANTICIPATE MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AS THE FRONTOGENESIS MAX PIVOTS
OVERHEAD. ADDITIONAL TEMPO IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN LATER
ISSUANCES. THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT SHOULD EASILY PRODUCE GUSTS
INTO THE 20S THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AT KAVL AND KHKY...THE WESTERN NC TAF SITES WILL BE THE FARTHEST
FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SE LOW...AND THE LEAST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE ANY EXTENDED PERIODS OF IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT FOLLOWING A MOS CONSENSUS OF MAINLY MVFR TO LOWERING
VFR SEEMS REASONABLE. BRIEF N TO NE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS
WELL...BUT WITH LESS MAGNITUDE THAN TAF LOCATIONS FARTHER SE.

AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES...IFR CIGS SHOULD CERTAINLY MAKE A RUN AT
THE AIRFIELDS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE WILL BE TO TEMPO IFR CIGS IN AFTER
08Z...SOONER AT KGSP...AND THEN FEATURE MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. NE FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND GUSTS TO BETTER THAN 25 KT WILL BE LIKELY
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...CEILING RESTRICTIONS MAY WELL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOISTURE PULLS AWAY WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY HIGH PRES WILL THEN DEVELOP THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     HIGH  86%     MED   69%     HIGH  84%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     MED   78%     MED   66%     HIGH  97%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  81%
KAND       HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 190654
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
TODAY...AND CONTINUE TRACKING EAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
BROAD AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING DRY SLOTTING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE SW WHICH WILL CURTAIL POPS AND QPF IN SW
SECTIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE SFC LOW UNDER THE CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EWD ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY
THIS EVENING...WITH A CORRESPONDING GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN AREA PROFILES FROM THE EARLY MORNING MAX VALUES.
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY...DEEP
LAYER QG FORCING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...AN AXIS OF STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING TONIGHT
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY OFFSHORE. THIS FRONTOGENESIS
MAX MAY PIVOT ACROSS PIEDMONT SECTIONS TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL GOING FORWARD ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. SERIOUS
CONSIDERATION HAS BEEN GIVEN TO A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE CLT METRO
AREA...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK RAINFALL RATES THUS FAR...AND THE FFG AND
HEADWATER GUIDANCE VALUES...IT APPEARS THAT ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT ADDRESS ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS AS THEY ARISE WITH SHORTER
FUSE PRODUCTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL
CAUSE NE WINDS TO PICK UP...WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S AND
POSSIBLY ABOVE 30 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SFC
CAD REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMP
RANGE FAIRLY SMALL. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS ON SUNDAY...WITH
WRAP-AROUND CLOUD COVER AND DECENT NELY LLVL FLOW LINGERING ATOP THE
CWFA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE POPS SHUD PRETTY MUCH BE OVER ACRS THE AREA
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT A SLGT CHC DOES LINGER IN THE SE ZONES THRU
MIDDAY. WITH THE COOL NE FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS...I UNDERCUT MOS
TEMPS...ESP IN THE EAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING RIPPLES ACRS THE AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVING WITHIN INCREASING WLY
FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHWRS ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER OVERNIGHT. BUT
OTHERWISE...JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND TEMPS A COUPLE CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING A
COLD FROPA ACRS THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAKLY FORCED. BUT THERE SHUD BE ENUF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE COUPLED
WITH LLVL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHWRS WITH THE FRONT. THE TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR ABOUT
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING INSTBY...WITH THE GFS MOST BULLISH WITH UP
TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BY 18Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...I THINK THE
DOWNSLOPE W/NW LLVL FLOW WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND OVERALL INSTBY. THE
GFS HODOGRAPHS ALSO DON/T SHOW MUCH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL W/NW FLOW ONLY INCREASING TO ABOUT
30 KTS IN THE MID LVLS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...UPR 70S TO LWR
80S EAST OF THE MTNS...ASSUMING FRONT PUSHES THRU LATE AFTN/EVE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU END OF THE WEEK...UPR FLOW CONTINUES TO BE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ANOTHER UPR RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LATITUDINAL TROF APPROACHING THE AREA
FRIDAY. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE SFC
HIGH PRES CENTER TRANSLATING EAST ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC
POPS CREEPING BACK IN BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR TO MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AROUND THE KCLT
AIRFIELD...BUT GUIDANCE INSISTS ON KCLT REMAINING AN ISLAND OF
MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS. STILL THINK THAT MOISTURE AND RAINFALL WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. ANTICIPATE MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AS THE FRONTOGENESIS MAX PIVOTS
OVERHEAD. ADDITIONAL TEMPO IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN LATER
ISSUANCES. THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT SHOULD EASILY PRODUCE GUSTS
INTO THE 20S THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AT KAVL AND KHKY...THE WESTERN NC TAF SITES WILL BE THE FARTHEST
FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SE LOW...AND THE LEAST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE ANY EXTENDED PERIODS OF IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT FOLLOWING A MOS CONSENSUS OF MAINLY MVFR TO LOWERING
VFR SEEMS REASONABLE. BRIEF N TO NE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS
WELL...BUT WITH LESS MAGNITUDE THAN TAF LOCATIONS FARTHER SE.

AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES...IFR CIGS SHOULD CERTAINLY MAKE A RUN AT
THE AIRFIELDS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE WILL BE TO TEMPO IFR CIGS IN AFTER
08Z...SOONER AT KGSP...AND THEN FEATURE MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. NE FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND GUSTS TO BETTER THAN 25 KT WILL BE LIKELY
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...CEILING RESTRICTIONS MAY WELL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOISTURE PULLS AWAY WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY HIGH PRES WILL THEN DEVELOP THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  85%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     HIGH  86%     MED   69%     HIGH  84%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     MED   78%     MED   66%     HIGH  97%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  81%
KAND       HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 190608
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
208 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES EAST ON
TUESDAY. A BROAD AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW MOVING ACROSS SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. WHILE IR IMAGERY INDICATED VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...SOME DEGREE OF DRY SLOTTING WRAPPING IN FROM THE SW WAS
EVIDENT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SRN ESCARPMENT AREAS TO DRY A BIT THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE SFC LOW UNDER THE CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD
ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING.
UNTIL THEN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN LAPS SOUNDINGS ON THE
ORDER OF 1.25 INCHES SHOULD PERSIST IN MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY...DEEP LAYER QG FORCING
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z BEFORE DIMINISHING
FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...AN AXIS OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY OFFSHORE. THIS FRONTOGENESIS MAX MAY PIVOT ACROSS
PIEDMONT SECTIONS TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL GOING FORWARD
ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. SERIOUS CONSIDERATION HAS BEEN
GIVEN TO A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS CLT METRO...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK
RAINFALL RATES THUS FAR...AND THE FFG AND HEADWATER GUIDANCE
VALUES...IT APPEARS THAT ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
ADDRESS ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS AS THEY ARISE WITH SHORTER FUSE PRODUCTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL
CAUSE NE WINDS TO PICK UP...WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S AND
POSSIBLY ABOVE 30 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SFC
CAD REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMP
RANGE FAIRLY SMALL. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...STACKED SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL DEPART THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY EVENING...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE THRU SUNDAY. WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BEST FORCING WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER NELY 925-850MB WINDS WILL STILL
BE STRONG...BRINGING SOME VERY WEAK LIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION BUT
PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE FORCING INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. VARIOUS
MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVERNIGHT. THUS POPS AND CLOUD
COVER ARE SLOW TO TRAIL OFF...LASTING INTO THE MRNG HRS SUNDAY. MIN
TEMPS SUN MRNG WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

THICKNESSES REBOUND SOMEWHAT THRU THE DAY AS SHORT UPPER RIDGE STARTS
TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. HOWEVER EAST COAST HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN NELY WINDS AND MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH IT IS
SOON IMPINGED UPON BY HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY. BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND THE ATLANTIC LOW THE DEGREE OF RETURN
FLOW IS LIMITED BUT SOME MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
MTNS...ENOUGH TO BRING BACK CLOUD COVER. SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS QPF
RESPONSE MONDAY...ALONG WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH ASCENT
WILL BE HINDERED BY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE RIDGE. HAVE
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES MONDAY. MAX TEMPS RETURN
TO SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS IN REGARD TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
AND RESULTANT SURFACE FEATURES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION
INITIALLY WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD MON NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO PRODUCE SOME SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500J/KG TUE
AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. WIND FIELDS DO NOT
LOOK PARTICULARILY STRONG...SO SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS
JUNCTURE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY
LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WED...TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
LATE THU. AFTER TUE...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
FRI...WITH JUST A LOW END CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
FRI AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR TO MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN AROUND THE KCLT
AIRFIELD...BUT GUIDANCE INSISTS ON KCLT REMAINING AN ISLAND OF
MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS. STILL THINK THAT MOISTURE AND RAINFALL WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. ANTICIPATE MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AS THE FRONTOGENESIS MAX PIVOTS
OVERHEAD. ADDITIONAL TEMPO IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN LATER
ISSUANCES. THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT SHOULD EASILY PRODUCE GUSTS
INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AT KAVL AND KHKY...THE WESTERN NC TAF SITES WILL BE THE FARTHEST
FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SE LOW...AND THE LEAST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE ANY EXTENDED PERIODS OF IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT FOLLOWING A MOS CONSENSUS OF MAINLY MVFR TO LOWERING
VFR SEEMS REASONABLE. BRIEF N TO NE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS
WELL...BUT WITH LESS MAGNITURE THAN TAF LOCATIONS FARTHER SE.

AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES...IFR CIGS SHOULD CERTAINLY MAKE A RUN AT
THE AIRFIELDS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE WILL BE TO TEMPO IFR CIGS IN AFTER
08Z AND THEN FEATURE MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
NE FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND
GUSTS TO BETTER THAN 25 KT WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...CEILING RESTRICTIONS MAY WELL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOISTURE PULLS AWAY WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A
FAIRLY WET FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       HIGH  82%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  81%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     MED   68%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     MED   64%     HIGH  94%
KGMU       MED   75%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  83%     MED   79%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  92%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 190237
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1037 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES EAST ON
TUESDAY. A BROAD AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL
FOR THIS UPDATE.  DID OPT TO TWEAK HOURLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT FCST TRENDS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ON
AVERAGE.  ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POPS THROUGH THE EVENING
WHICH CONSISTED OF INCREASING TO SOLID CATEGORICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE
I40 CORRIDOR IN NC.  OTHERWISE LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...BASED ON THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS...IT
APPEARS THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE GULF IS A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN MOST FL PANHANDLE. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF GA AND WRN SC. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A DRY WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT PCPN AT BAY OVER MOST
OF THE FA...THOUGH RAIN HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO FALL OVER THE SRN
UPSTATE. THE LATEST NAM HAS GONE FROM BEING THE DRIEST MODEL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE WETTEST...WITH A 3 TO 4 INCH QPF BULLSEYE
OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE QPF AND GENERAL MASS FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. IT/S CURRENT LLVL POT VORT MAX LINES UP WELL WHERE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN IS FALLING...AND LOCAL VWP SHOW THAT ELY WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 40-45 KTS OVER SRN GA.

THE 12 UTC H8 ZONAL WINDS ON THE GFS INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BY 0600 UTC TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IS
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPGLIDE ACROSS THE LLVL WARM FRONT.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE QPF AVERAGES AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE UPSTATE AND
SRN NC PIEDMONT AND THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE AMOUNT FOR THE
EVENT. INTERESTINGLY...THE CANADIAN HAS A 3 INCH QPF MAX NEAR
CHARLOTTE FOR THE EVENT. THAT/S TO SAY...SOME OF THE MODELS REALLY
GO TO TOWN WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN...BUT I FEEL MUCH MORE
CONFIDENT STAYING CLOSER TO AN ENSEMBLE BLEND. MY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH...BUT SOME URBAN
FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR THE EVENT. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS
H8 ZONAL WIND ANOMALY REMAINS AOA 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS INTO SUNDAY.
SO WHILE THE MODEL DOZEN/T HAVE MUCH QPF BEYOND MID-DAY SATURDAY...I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN LAST
CONSIDERABLY LONGER OVER SOME PART OF THE FA.

WENT MUCH LOWER THAN THE NAM MAX TEMPS OVER PARTS OF THE FA
TMRW...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND WHAT ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH
CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...STACKED SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL DEPART THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY EVENING...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE THRU SUNDAY. WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BEST FORCING WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER NELY 925-850MB WINDS WILL STILL
BE STRONG...BRINGING SOME VERY WEAK LIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION BUT
PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE FORCING INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. VARIOUS
MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVERNIGHT. THUS POPS AND CLOUD
COVER ARE SLOW TO TRAIL OFF...LASTING INTO THE MRNG HRS SUNDAY. MIN
TEMPS SUN MRNG WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

THICKNESSES REBOUND SOMEWHAT THRU THE DAY AS SHORT UPPER RIDGE STARTS
TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. HOWEVER EAST COAST HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN NELY WINDS AND MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH IT IS
SOON IMPINGED UPON BY HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY. BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND THE ATLANTIC LOW THE DEGREE OF RETURN
FLOW IS LIMITED BUT SOME MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
MTNS...ENOUGH TO BRING BACK CLOUD COVER. SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS QPF
RESPONSE MONDAY...ALONG WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH ASCENT
WILL BE HINDERED BY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE RIDGE. HAVE
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES MONDAY. MAX TEMPS RETURN
TO SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS IN REGARD TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
AND RESULTANT SURFACE FEATURES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION
INITIALLY WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD MON NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO PRODUCE SOME SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500J/KG TUE
AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. WIND FIELDS DO NOT
LOOK PARTICULARILY STRONG...SO SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS
JUNCTURE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY
LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WED...TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
LATE THU. AFTER TUE...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
FRI...WITH JUST A LOW END CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
FRI AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS TAF
CYCLE.  MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
TAF CYCLE DUE TO VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS AS LOWERED CLOUD DECK ADVECTS
IN FROM THE MIDLANDS OF SC IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED PRECIP
SHIELD.  EXPECTING FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX MAXIMIZES DUE TO SURFACE CYCLONE PASSING
BY TO THE SOUTH.  LIKEWISE...ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES
BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH...AND THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL YIELD INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH
SUSTAINED FLOW IN THE 10-15KTS RANGE AND GUSTS NEARING 26KTS.  THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD UNTIL THE
SURFACE CYCLONE EJECTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
RELAX.  HELD ONTO MENTION OF WX THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY WITH CIGS
RECOVERING TO MVFR LEVELS A FEW HOURS BEFORE THAT.  ENDED TAF WITH
MVFR CIGS AND A PROB30 FOR -RA AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SC SITES...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TIMING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHTING THE TAF CYCLE.  WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES RAMP UP WHEN THE SURFACE
LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY/MID MORNING.  SUSTAINED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE 12-15KTS RANGE WITH GUSTS NEARING 28KTS IS
EXPECTED.  ALL WX MENTION IS REMOVED AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE 18-19Z TIMEFRAME.

KAVL AND KHKY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE IFR LEVELS AT
THESE LOCATIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT DUE
TO PROXIMITY TO PARENT SURFACE LOW.  HOWEVER...DID KEEP MENTION OF
MVFR CIGS AND -RA/RA WITH BR AHEAD OF INCREASING SURFACE WINDS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT GUSTING EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER WELL INTO
SAT AS A SE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS SLOWLY AWAY. DRY HIGH
PRES WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  80%     MED   65%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  96%
KGSP       MED   66%     LOW   58%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  88%     MED   68%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  92%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     MED   69%     MED   78%     MED   79%
KGMU       MED   64%     LOW   57%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  90%
KAND       MED   74%     LOW   56%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 190008
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
808 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES EAST ON
TUESDAY. A BROAD AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A BLEND OF THE 18Z ADJMAV TO PULL DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO AS LATEST
TRENDS INDICATE CURRENT FCST WAS SLIGHTLY HIGH.  ALSO ADJUSTED POPS
WITH LATEST GFS/MAV SOLUTIONS WHICH ALLOWED FOR HIGHER POPS THIS
EVENING AND A SLIGHTLY FASTER REDUCTION OF POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOST ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  FINALLY...LATEST HPC QPF CAME IN
UNDER THE CURRENT FCST THEREFORE DECIDED TO BLEND IN WHICH YIELDED
SLIGHTLY LOWER STORM TOTAL AMTS.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS PRECIP
RATES ARE LOW...AT AROUND A TENTH PER HOUR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWFA.  SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RATES APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR.  BEYOND
THAT...KEPT FCST AS IT WAS FOR THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...BASED ON THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS...IT
APPEARS THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE GULF IS A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN MOST FL PANHANDLE. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF GA AND WRN SC. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A DRY WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT PCPN AT BAY OVER MOST
OF THE FA...THOUGH RAIN HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO FALL OVER THE SRN
UPSTATE. THE LATEST NAM HAS GONE FROM BEING THE DRIEST MODEL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE WETTEST...WITH A 3 TO 4 INCH QPF BULLSEYE
OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE QPF AND GENERAL MASS FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. IT/S CURRENT LLVL POT VORT MAX LINES UP WELL WHERE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN IS FALLING...AND LOCAL VWP SHOW THAT ELY WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 40-45 KTS OVER SRN GA.

THE 12 UTC H8 ZONAL WINDS ON THE GFS INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BY 0600 UTC TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IS
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPGLIDE ACROSS THE LLVL WARM FRONT.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE QPF AVERAGES AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE UPSTATE AND
SRN NC PIEDMONT AND THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE AMOUNT FOR THE
EVENT. INTERESTINGLY...THE CANADIAN HAS A 3 INCH QPF MAX NEAR
CHARLOTTE FOR THE EVENT. THAT/S TO SAY...SOME OF THE MODELS REALLY
GO TO TOWN WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN...BUT I FEEL MUCH MORE
CONFIDENT STAYING CLOSER TO AN ENSEMBLE BLEND. MY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH...BUT SOME URBAN
FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR THE EVENT. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS
H8 ZONAL WIND ANOMALY REMAINS AOA 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS INTO SUNDAY.
SO WHILE THE MODEL DOZEN/T HAVE MUCH QPF BEYOND MID-DAY SATURDAY...I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN LAST
CONSIDERABLY LONGER OVER SOME PART OF THE FA.

WENT MUCH LOWER THAN THE NAM MAX TEMPS OVER PARTS OF THE FA
TMRW...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND WHAT ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH
CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...STACKED SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL DEPART THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY EVENING...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE THRU SUNDAY. WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BEST FORCING WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER NELY 925-850MB WINDS WILL STILL
BE STRONG...BRINGING SOME VERY WEAK LIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION BUT
PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE FORCING INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. VARIOUS
MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVERNIGHT. THUS POPS AND CLOUD
COVER ARE SLOW TO TRAIL OFF...LASTING INTO THE MRNG HRS SUNDAY. MIN
TEMPS SUN MRNG WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

THICKNESSES REBOUND SOMEWHAT THRU THE DAY AS SHORT UPPER RIDGE STARTS
TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. HOWEVER EAST COAST HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN NELY WINDS AND MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH IT IS
SOON IMPINGED UPON BY HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY. BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND THE ATLANTIC LOW THE DEGREE OF RETURN
FLOW IS LIMITED BUT SOME MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
MTNS...ENOUGH TO BRING BACK CLOUD COVER. SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS QPF
RESPONSE MONDAY...ALONG WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH ASCENT
WILL BE HINDERED BY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE RIDGE. HAVE
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES MONDAY. MAX TEMPS RETURN
TO SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS IN REGARD TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
AND RESULTANT SURFACE FEATURES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION
INITIALLY WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD MON NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO PRODUCE SOME SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500J/KG TUE
AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. WIND FIELDS DO NOT
LOOK PARTICULARILY STRONG...SO SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS
JUNCTURE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY
LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WED...TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
LATE THU. AFTER TUE...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
FRI...WITH JUST A LOW END CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
FRI AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS TAF
CYCLE.  MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
TAF CYCLE DUE TO VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS AS LOWERED CLOUD DECK ADVECTS
IN FROM THE MIDLANDS OF SC IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED PRECIP
SHIELD.  EXPECTING FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX MAXIMIZES DUE TO SURFACE CYCLONE PASSING
BY TO THE SOUTH.  LIKEWISE...ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES
BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH...AND THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL YIELD INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH
SUSTAINED FLOW IN THE 10-15KTS RANGE AND GUSTS NEARING 26KTS.  THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD UNTIL THE
SURFACE CYCLONE EJECTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
RELAX.  HELD ONTO MENTION OF WX THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY WITH CIGS
RECOVERING TO MVFR LEVELS A FEW HOURS BEFORE THAT.  ENDED TAF WITH
MVFR CIGS AND A PROB30 FOR -RA AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SC SITES...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TIMING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHTING THE TAF CYCLE.  WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES RAMP UP WHEN THE SURFACE
LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY/MID MORNING.  SUSTAINED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE 12-15KTS RANGE WITH GUSTS NEARING 28KTS IS
EXPECTED.  ALL WX MENTION IS REMOVED AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE 18-19Z TIMEFRAME.

KAVL AND KHKY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE IFR LEVELS AT
THESE LOCATIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT DUE
TO PROXIMITY TO PARENT SURFACE LOW.  HOWEVER...DID KEEP MENTION OF
MVFR CIGS AND -RA/RA WITH BR AHEAD OF INCREASING SURFACE WINDS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT GUSTING EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER WELL INTO
SAT AS A SE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS SLOWLY AWAY. DRY HIGH
PRES WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     MED   64%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  82%     MED   60%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   69%     MED   79%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   69%     MED   73%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH  81%     LOW   59%     MED   72%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH  85%     LOW   59%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 182019
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
419 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES EAST ON
TUESDAY. A BROAD AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUES TO MARCH
NORTHWARD FROM THE PARENT DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...THEREFORE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND RAMP POPS UP ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE I85 CORRIDOR.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE HOLDING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S AMIDST LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND
OVERCAST SKIES.  ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...BASED ON THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS...IT
APPEARS THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE GULF IS A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN MOST FL PANHANDLE. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF GA AND WRN SC. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A DRY WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT PCPN AT BAY OVER MOST
OF THE FA...THOUGH RAIN HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO FALL OVER THE SRN
UPSTATE. THE LATEST NAM HAS GONE FROM BEING THE DRIEST MODEL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE WETTEST...WITH A 3 TO 4 INCH QPF BULLSEYE
OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE QPF AND GENERAL MASS FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. IT/S CURRENT LLVL POT VORT MAX LINES UP WELL WHERE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN IS FALLING...AND LOCAL VWPS SHOW THAT ELY WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 40-45 KTS OVER SRN GA.

THE 12 UTC H8 ZONAL WINDS ON THE GFS INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BY 0600 UTC TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IS
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPGLIDE ACROSS THE LLVL WARM FRONT.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE QPF AVERAGES AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE UPSTATE AND
SRN NC PIEDMONT AND THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE AMOUNT FOR THE
EVENT. INTERESTINGLY...THE CANADIAN HAS A 3 INCH QPF MAX NEAR
CHARLOTTE FOR THE EVENT. THAT/S TO SAY...SOME OF THE MODELS REALLY
GO TO TOWN WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN...BUT I FEEL MUCH MORE
CONFIDENT STAYING CLOSER TO AN ENSEMBLE BLEND. MY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH...BUT SOME URBAN
FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR THE EVENT. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS
H8 ZONAL WIND ANOMALY REMAINS AOA 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS INTO SUNDAY.
SO WHILE THE MODEL DOESN/T HAVE MUCH QPF BEYOND MID-DAY SATURDAY...I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN LAST
CONSIDERABLY LONGER OVER SOME PART OF THE FA.

WENT MUCH LOWER THAN THE NAM MAX TEMPS OVER PARTS OF THE FA
TMRW...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND WHAT ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH
CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...STACKED SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL DEPART THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY EVENING...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE THRU SUNDAY. WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BEST FORCING WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER NELY 925-850MB WINDS WILL STILL
BE STRONG...BRINGING SOME VERY WEAK LIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION BUT
PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE FORCING INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. VARIOUS
MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVERNIGHT. THUS POPS AND CLOUD
COVER ARE SLOW TO TRAIL OFF...LASTING INTO THE MRNG HRS SUNDAY. MIN
TEMPS SUN MRNG WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

THICKNESSES REBOUND SOMEWHAT THRU THE DAY AS SHORT UPPER RIDGE STARTS
TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. HOWEVER EAST COAST HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN NELY WINDS AND MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH IT IS
SOON IMPINGED UPON BY HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY. BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND THE ATLANTIC LOW THE DEGREE OF RETURN
FLOW IS LIMITED BUT SOME MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
MTNS...ENOUGH TO BRING BACK CLOUD COVER. SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS QPF
RESPONSE MONDAY...ALONG WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH ASCENT
WILL BE HINDERED BY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE RIDGE. HAVE
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES MONDAY. MAX TEMPS RETURN
TO SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS IN REGARD TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
AND RESULTANT SURFACE FEATURES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION
INITIALLY WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD MON NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO PRODUCE SOME SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500J/KG TUE
AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. WIND FIELDS DO NOT
LOOK PARTICULARILY STRONG...SO SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS
JUNCTURE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY
LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WED...TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
LATE THU. AFTER TUE...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
FRI...WITH JUST A LOW END CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
FRI AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A HIGH OVERCAST ALL DAY...THE
LOWER CIGS CAN/T BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE DRY LLVL AIRMASS. THIS
WILL SOON CHANGE AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 2100 UTC. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY FALL...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO TOMORROW AFTN. A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVERNIGHT...WITH PCPN
BECOMING LIGHTER BY MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OUT OF THE NE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NRN
FLORIDA.

ELSEWHERE...THE REST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL GENERALLY
SEE SIMILAR CIG...VSBY AND PCPN TRENDS AS AT KCLT. THE PCPN WILL
START A LITTLE EARLIER OVER THE UPSTATE AND LATER AT KHKY. CIGS
SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KHKY
THAN ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS WINDS
NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30KTS OVER THE UPSTATE AFTER SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER WELL INTO
SAT AS A SE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS SLOWLY AWAY. DRY HIGH
PRES WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   63%     MED   72%     HIGH  82%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     MED   63%     HIGH  81%     MED   68%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   71%     MED   71%     MED   67%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   75%     MED   65%     MED   65%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     MED   60%     MED   78%     MED   67%
KAND       MED   79%     MED   70%     MED   79%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...MCAVOY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 181829
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES EAST ON
TUESDAY. A BROAD AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...BASED ON THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS...IT
APPEARS THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE GULF IS A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN MOST FL PANHANDLE. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF GA AND WRN SC. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A DRY WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT PCPN AT BAY OVER MOST
OF THE FA...THOUGH RAIN HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO FALL OVER THE SRN
UPSTATE. THE LATEST NAM HAS GONE FROM BEING THE DRIEST MODEL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE WETTEST...WITH A 3 TO 4 INCH QPF BULLSEYE
OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE QPF AND GENERAL MASS FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. IT/S CURRENT LLVL POT VORT MAX LINES UP WELL WHERE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN IS FALLING...AND LOCAL VWPS SHOW THAT ELY WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 40-45 KTS OVER SRN GA.

THE 12 UTC H8 ZONAL WINDS ON THE GFS INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BY 0600 UTC TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IS
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPGLIDE ACROSS THE LLVL WARM FRONT.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE QPF AVERAGES AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE UPSTATE AND
SRN NC PIEDMONT AND THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE AMOUNT FOR THE
EVENT. INTERESTINGLY...THE CANADIAN HAS A 3 INCH QPF MAX NEAR
CHARLOTTE FOR THE EVENT. THAT/S TO SAY...SOME OF THE MODELS REALLY
GO TO TOWN WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN...BUT I FEEL MUCH MORE
CONFIDENT STAYING CLOSER TO AN ENSEMBLE BLEND. MY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH...BUT SOME URBAN
FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR THE EVENT. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS
H8 ZONAL WIND ANOMALY REMAINS AOA 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS INTO SUNDAY.
SO WHILE THE MODEL DOESN/T HAVE MUCH QPF BEYOND MID-DAY SATURDAY...I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN LAST
CONSIDERABLY LONGER OVER SOME PART OF THE FA.

WENT MUCH LOWER THAN THE NAM MAX TEMPS OVER PARTS OF THE FA
TMRW...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND WHAT ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH
CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...STACKED SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL DEPART THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY EVENING...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE THRU SUNDAY. WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BEST FORCING WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER NELY 925-850MB WINDS WILL STILL
BE STRONG...BRINGING SOME VERY WEAK LIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION BUT
PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE FORCING INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. VARIOUS
MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVERNIGHT. THUS POPS AND CLOUD
COVER ARE SLOW TO TRAIL OFF...LASTING INTO THE MRNG HRS SUNDAY. MIN
TEMPS SUN MRNG WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

THICKNESSES REBOUND SOMEWHAT THRU THE DAY AS SHORT UPPER RIDGE STARTS
TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. HOWEVER EAST COAST HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN NELY WINDS AND MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH IT IS
SOON IMPINGED UPON BY HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY. BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND THE ATLANTIC LOW THE DEGREE OF RETURN
FLOW IS LIMITED BUT SOME MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
MTNS...ENOUGH TO BRING BACK CLOUD COVER. SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS QPF
RESPONSE MONDAY...ALONG WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THOUGH ASCENT
WILL BE HINDERED BY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE RIDGE. HAVE
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES MONDAY. MAX TEMPS RETURN
TO SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS IN REGARD TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
AND RESULTANT SURFACE FEATURES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION
INITIALLY WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD MON NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO PRODUCE SOME SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500J/KG TUE
AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. WIND FIELDS DO NOT
LOOK PARTICULARILY STRONG...SO SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS
JUNCTURE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY
LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WED...TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
LATE THU. AFTER TUE...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
FRI...WITH JUST A LOW END CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
FRI AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A HIGH OVERCAST ALL DAY...THE
LOWER CIGS CAN/T BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE DRY LLVL AIRMASS. THIS
WILL SOON CHANGE AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 2100 UTC. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY FALL...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO TOMORROW AFTN. A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVERNIGHT...WITH PCPN
BECOMING LIGHTER BY MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OUT OF THE NE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NRN
FLORIDA.

ELSEWHERE...THE REST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL GENERALLY
SEE SIMILAR CIG...VSBY AND PCPN TRENDS AS AT KCLT. THE PCPN WILL
START A LITTLE EARLIER OVER THE UPSTATE AND LATER AT KHKY. CIGS
SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KHKY
THAN ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS WINDS
NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30KTS OVER THE UPSTATE AFTER SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER WELL INTO
SAT AS A SE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS SLOWLY AWAY. DRY HIGH
PRES WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     MED   73%     MED   69%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   74%     MED   75%     MED   64%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     MED   77%     MED   69%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     MED   70%     MED   69%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   73%     MED   75%     MED   62%
KAND       HIGH  87%     MED   69%     MED   77%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...MCAVOY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 181749
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
GULF TODAY...AND TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT FRIDAY...PCPN CONTINUES IT/S SLOW NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION. PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE
FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF LINE FROM CLEMSON TO GREENWOOD. POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

AS OF 1010 AM EDT FRIDAY...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN IS APPROACHING
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THERE ARE PATCHY AREAS OF
LIGHTER...HIGH BASED PCPN AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL...AND
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS THAT WE HAVE
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE SRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
THE BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE REMAINS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SRN GA...BUT WITH A FEW LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON
REGIONAL RADARS FROM TIME TO TIME OVER ERN GA IN IMPROVING UPGLIDE.
THE POP ONSET MAY NEED TO BE HASTENED IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES IF THIS
LIGHT RAIN CAN OVERCOME THE SFC BASED DRY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES LINGERING ALONG THE NJ COAST WILL
KEEP A DRY CAD PATTERN OVER THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. WILL LEAN COOLER THAN MOS ON MAX
TEMPS FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A 500 MB LOW CENTER IN THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER AL BY EVENING AND THEN MIGRATES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE SE COASTLINE OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST QPF SWATH MAY BE FOCUSED JUST SE OF THE
AREA....DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION AND UPSLOPE COULD STILL FOCUS
SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NWD INTO OUR AREA. TWO QPF MAXIMA MAY
THUS SET UP...ONE IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT AND A SECONDARY AREA ALONG
THE SRN/SE ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT WITH NEARLY ONE INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS IN BETWEEN AS FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS FROM THE LOWER PIEDMONT
TO THE BLUE RIDGE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE AT A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF A CLEAR TERRAIN FOCUS AND THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500 MB LOW
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ROUGLY ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER ON
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE CWFA UNDER STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THRU
THE DAY. A SFC LOW WILL BE NEARLY RIGHT UNDER THE UPR LOW...WITH A
STIFF NE LLVL FLOW AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP SHIELD LIKELY STILL
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING. I HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS THRU THE DAY...WITH A SLOWER DECREASING TREND IN THE AFTN. SFC
HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SUPPLY COOL AIR...SO
TAKING A BLEND OF THE CONSRAW GUIDANCE...TEMPS WERE RATCHETED
DOWN...STAYING PRIMARILY IN THE 50S TO LWR 60S IN THE WEST.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES IS
POSSIBLE.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE AND LLVL NE FLOW LINGERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO
SUNDAY. I HAVE POP TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY IN THE EAST.
GIVEN THE COOL NE FLOW...I DID BLEND IN CONSRAW TEMPS TO BUMP THEM
DOWN...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS.

A NARROW SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...SO NO FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS IN REGARD TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
AND RESULTANT SURFACE FEATURES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION
INITIALLY WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD MON NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO PRODUCE SOME SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500J/KG TUE
AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. WIND FIELDS DO NOT
LOOK PARTICULARILY STRONG...SO SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS
JUNCTURE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY
LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WED...TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
LATE THU. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO FRI...WITH JUST A
LOW END CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A HIGH OVERCAST ALL DAY...THE
LOWER CIGS CAN/T BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE DRY LLVL AIRMASS. THIS
WILL SOON CHANGE AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 2100 UTC. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY FALL...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO TOMORROW AFTN. A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVERNIGHT...WITH PCPN
BECOMING LIGHTER BY MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OUT OF THE NE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NRN
FLORIDA.

ELSEWHERE...THE REST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL GENERALLY
SEE SIMILAR CIG...VSBY AND PCPN TRENDS AS AT KCLT. THE PCPN WILL
START A LITTLE EARLIER OVER THE UPSTATE AND LATER AT KHKY. CIGS
SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KHKY
THAN ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS WINDS
NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30KTS OVER THE UPSTATE AFTER SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER WELL INTO
SAT AS A SE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS SLOWLY AWAY. DRY HIGH
PRES WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   64%     MED   63%     MED   75%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     MED   69%     MED   69%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     MED   75%     MED   74%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   78%     MED   64%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       MED   78%     MED   60%     MED   69%     HIGH  91%
KAND       MED   62%     MED   60%     MED   72%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...MCAVOY








000
FXUS62 KGSP 181409
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1009 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
GULF TODAY...AND TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM EDT FRIDAY...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN IS APPROACHING
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THERE ARE PATCHY AREAS OF
LIGHTER...HIGH BASED PCPN AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL...AND
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS THAT WE HAVE
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE SRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
THE BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE REMAINS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SRN GA...BUT WITH A FEW LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON
REGIONAL RADARS FROM TIME TO TIME OVER ERN GA IN IMPROVING UPGLIDE.
THE POP ONSET MAY NEED TO BE HASTENED IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES IF THIS
LIGHT RAIN CAN OVERCOME THE SFC BASED DRY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES LINGERING ALONG THE NJ COAST WILL
KEEP A DRY CAD PATTERN OVER THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. WILL LEAN COOLER THAN MOS ON MAX
TEMPS FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A 500 MB LOW CENTER IN THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER AL BY EVENING AND THEN MIGRATES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE SE COASTLINE OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST QPF SWATH MAY BE FOCUSED JUST SE OF THE
AREA....DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION AND UPSLOPE COULD STILL FOCUS
SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NWD INTO OUR AREA. TWO QPF MAXIMA MAY
THUS SET UP...ONE IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT AND A SECONDARY AREA ALONG
THE SRN/SE ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT WITH NEARLY ONE INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS IN BETWEEN AS FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS FROM THE LOWER PIEDMONT
TO THE BLUE RIDGE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE AT A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF A CLEAR TERRAIN FOCUS AND THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500 MB LOW
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ROUGLY ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER ON
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE CWFA UNDER STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THRU
THE DAY. A SFC LOW WILL BE NEARLY RIGHT UNDER THE UPR LOW...WITH A
STIFF NE LLVL FLOW AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP SHIELD LIKELY STILL
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING. I HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS THRU THE DAY...WITH A SLOWER DECREASING TREND IN THE AFTN. SFC
HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SUPPLY COOL AIR...SO
TAKING A BLEND OF THE CONSRAW GUIDANCE...TEMPS WERE RATCHETED
DOWN...STAYING PRIMARILY IN THE 50S TO LWR 60S IN THE WEST.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES IS
POSSIBLE.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE AND LLVL NE FLOW LINGERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO
SUNDAY. I HAVE POP TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY IN THE EAST.
GIVEN THE COOL NE FLOW...I DID BLEND IN CONSRAW TEMPS TO BUMP THEM
DOWN...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS.

A NARROW SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...SO NO FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...THE OP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PHASING OF REMNANT SRN STREAM ENERGY FROM A CLOSED UPR LOW INVOF
CALIF AND A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT PROPAGATING LATITUDINAL TROF WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH
ON INSTBY AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH 600-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
OVERALL FORCING WITH THE FRONT LOOKS MODEST AT BEST...AND THE FCST
SNDGS SHOW A DEEP-LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED SHWRS WITH PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS. THE BEST
COVERAGE WILL BE NEAR THE TN LINE...AS DOWNSLOPE MAY LIMIT COVERAGE
EAST OF THE MTNS.

AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY THRU
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WX ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

TEMPS START OUT NEAR NORMAL MONDAY...THEN WARMING A COUPLE
CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY...AND STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOSTLY LOWERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME PESKY LOWER VFR CIGS IN SHALLOW MOIST UPGLIDE
COULD FLIRT WITH THE AIRFIELD. THE HIGHER LEVEL VFR OVERCAST WILL
STEADILY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A RAPID TRANSITION
TO MVFR THEN IFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE RAINFALL
BEGINS. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO GET LOCKED IN FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NE WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH INCREASING FLOW AND GUSTS LATE
AS SFC LOW PRES OVER SE GA TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT ALL
LOCATIONS BUT KAND...WHERE MVFR BASES COULD SNEAK IN ON SHALLOW
MOIST UPGLIDE OVER THE DEVELOPING CAD LAYER. EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS
THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXCEPT TOGGLING BETWEEN SE AND NRLY AT KAVL. CIGS
SHOULD DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
PRECIPITATION ONSETS FROM THE S...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LOCKING
IN OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A TIGHTENING PRES GRAD N OF THE SE GA
COASTAL LOW WILL PRODUCE NELY GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT AT THE UPSTATE TAF
SITES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER WELL INTO
SAT AS A SE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS SLOWLY AWAY. DRY HIGH
PRES WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     MED   61%     MED   76%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     MED   67%     HIGH  84%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   67%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   67%     MED   64%     HIGH  86%
KAND       MED   76%     LOW   57%     MED   65%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 181049
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
649 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
GULF TODAY...AND TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE SRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
THE BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE REMAINS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SRN GA...BUT WITH A FEW LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON
REGIONAL RADARS FROM TIME TO TIME OVER ERN GA IN IMPROVING UPGLIDE.
THE POP ONSET MAY NEED TO BE HASTENED IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES IF THIS
LIGHT RAIN CAN OVERCOME THE SFC BASED DRY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES LINGERING ALONG THE NJ COAST WILL
KEEP A DRY CAD PATTERN OVER THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. WILL LEAN COOLER THAN MOS ON MAX
TEMPS FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A 500 MB LOW CENTER IN THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER AL BY EVENING AND THEN MIGRATES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE SE COASTLINE OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST QPF SWATH MAY BE FOCUSED JUST SE OF THE
AREA....DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION AND UPSLOPE COULD STILL FOCUS
SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NWD INTO OUR AREA. TWO QPF MAXIMA MAY
THUS SET UP...ONE IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT AND A SECONDARY AREA ALONG
THE SRN/SE ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT WITH NEARLY ONE INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS IN BETWEEN AS FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS FROM THE LOWER PIEDMONT
TO THE BLUE RIDGE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE AT A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF A CLEAR TERRAIN FOCUS AND THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500 MB LOW
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ROUGLY ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER ON
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE CWFA UNDER STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THRU
THE DAY. A SFC LOW WILL BE NEARLY RIGHT UNDER THE UPR LOW...WITH A
STIFF NE LLVL FLOW AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP SHIELD LIKELY STILL
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING. I HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS THRU THE DAY...WITH A SLOWER DECREASING TREND IN THE AFTN. SFC
HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SUPPLY COOL AIR...SO
TAKING A BLEND OF THE CONSRAW GUIDANCE...TEMPS WERE RATCHETED
DOWN...STAYING PRIMARILY IN THE 50S TO LWR 60S IN THE WEST.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES IS
POSSIBLE.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE AND LLVL NE FLOW LINGERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO
SUNDAY. I HAVE POP TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY IN THE EAST.
GIVEN THE COOL NE FLOW...I DID BLEND IN CONSRAW TEMPS TO BUMP THEM
DOWN...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS.

A NARROW SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...SO NO FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...THE OP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PHASING OF REMNANT SRN STREAM ENERGY FROM A CLOSED UPR LOW INVOF
CALIF AND A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT PROPAGATING LATITUDINAL TROF WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH
ON INSTBY AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH 600-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
OVERALL FORCING WITH THE FRONT LOOKS MODEST AT BEST...AND THE FCST
SNDGS SHOW A DEEP-LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED SHWRS WITH PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS. THE BEST
COVERAGE WILL BE NEAR THE TN LINE...AS DOWNSLOPE MAY LIMIT COVERAGE
EAST OF THE MTNS.

AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY THRU
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WX ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

TEMPS START OUT NEAR NORMAL MONDAY...THEN WARMING A COUPLE
CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY...AND STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOSTLY LOWERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME PESKY LOWER VFR CIGS IN SHALLOW MOIST UPGLIDE
COULD FLIRT WITH THE AIRFIELD. THE HIGHER LEVEL VFR OVERCAST WILL
STEADILY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A RAPID TRANSITION
TO MVFR THEN IFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE RAINFALL
BEGINS. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO GET LOCKED IN FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NE WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH INCREASING FLOW AND GUSTS LATE
AS SFC LOW PRES OVER SE GA TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT ALL
LOCATIONS BUT KAND...WHERE MVFR BASES COULD SNEAK IN ON SHALLOW
MOIST UPGLIDE OVER THE DEVELOPING CAD LAYER. EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS
THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXCEPT TOGGLING BETWEEN SE AND NRLY AT KAVL. CIGS
SHOULD DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
PRECIPITATION ONSETS FROM THE S...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LOCKING
IN OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A TIGHTENING PRES GRAD N OF THE SE GA
COASTAL LOW WILL PRODUCE NELY GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT AT THE UPSTATE TAF
SITES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER WELL INTO
SAT AS A SE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS SLOWLY AWAY. DRY HIGH
PRES WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH  80%     HIGH  86%     MED   64%     HIGH  82%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     MED   75%
KGMU       HIGH  80%     HIGH  86%     MED   65%     HIGH  84%
KAND       MED   64%     MED   65%     MED   67%     HIGH  84%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 180846
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
446 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
GULF TODAY...AND TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY ON THE
MOST RECENT UPDATE...AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE BEST
CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SRN GA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH LIGHTER UPGLIDE RETURNS
STARTING TO SHOW UP ON REGIONAL RADARS OVER ERN GA IN IMPROVING
UPGLIDE. THE POP ONSET MAY NEED TO BE HASTENED IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES
IF THIS LIGHT RAIN CAN OVERCOME THE SFC BASED DRY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES LINGERING ALONG THE NJ COAST WILL
KEEP A DRY CAD PATTERN OVER THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS THE CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. WILL LEAN COOLER THAN MOS ON MAX
TEMPS FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A 500 MB LOW CENTER IN THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER AL BY EVENING AND THEN MIGRATES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE SE COASTLINE OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST QPF SWATH MAY BE FOCUSED JUST SE OF THE
AREA....DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION AND UPSLOPE COULD STILL FOCUS
SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NWD INTO OUR AREA. TWO QPF MAXIMA MAY
THUS SET UP...ONE IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT AND A SECONDARY AREA ALONG
THE SRN/SE ESCARPMENT AREAS...BUT WITH NEARLY ONE INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS IN BETWEEN AS FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS FROM THE LOWER PIEDMONT
TO THE BLUE RIDGE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE AT A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF A CLEAR TERRAIN FOCUS AND THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500 MB LOW
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ROUGLY ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER ON
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE CWFA UNDER STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THRU
THE DAY. A SFC LOW WILL BE NEARLY RIGHT UNDER THE UPR LOW...WITH A
STIFF NE LLVL FLOW AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP SHIELD LIKELY STILL
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING. I HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS THRU THE DAY...WITH A SLOWER DECREASING TREND IN THE AFTN. SFC
HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SUPPLY COOL AIR...SO
TAKING A BLEND OF THE CONSRAW GUIDANCE...TEMPS WERE RATCHETED
DOWN...STAYING PRIMARILY IN THE 50S TO LWR 60S IN THE WEST.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES IS
POSSIBLE.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE AND LLVL NE FLOW LINGERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO
SUNDAY. I HAVE POP TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY IN THE EAST.
GIVEN THE COOL NE FLOW...I DID BLEND IN CONSRAW TEMPS TO BUMP THEM
DOWN...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS.

A NARROW SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...SO NO FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...THE OP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PHASING OF REMNANT SRN STREAM ENERGY FROM A CLOSED UPR LOW INVOF
CALIF AND A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT PROPAGATING LATITUDINAL TROF WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH
ON INSTBY AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH 600-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
OVERALL FORCING WITH THE FRONT LOOKS MODEST AT BEST...AND THE FCST
SNDGS SHOW A DEEP-LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED SHWRS WITH PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS. THE BEST
COVERAGE WILL BE NEAR THE TN LINE...AS DOWNSLOPE MAY LIMIT COVERAGE
EAST OF THE MTNS.

AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY THRU
FRIDAY...WITH DRY WX ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

TEMPS START OUT NEAR NORMAL MONDAY...THEN WARMING A COUPLE
CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY...AND STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE CLOUD BASE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH MODELS/MOS SPLIT ON GENERATING MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK
TODAY VERSUS KEEPING ANY CIGS AT MAINLY CIRRUS LEVELS. THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION IS BETTER MATCHING OBS THUS FAR...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HINT AT MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A SCT020 FORECAST AFTER 09Z.
THE HIGHER LEVEL VFR OVERCAST WILL STEADILY LOWER AND THICKEN
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A RAPID TRANSITION TO MVFR THEN IFR CIGS
EXPECTED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAIN DEVELOPS.
NE WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...BUT WITH INCREASING FLOW AND GUSTS LATE AS SFC LOW PRES
OVER SE GA TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY...EXCEPT FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR THIS MORNING AT KAND IN
WEAK UPGLIDE OVER THE CAD LAYER. EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS THROUGHOUT
TODAY...EXCEPT TOGGLING BETWEEN SE AND NRLY AT KAVL. CIGS SHOULD
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE S AS BETTER
UPGLIDE MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVE. ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS BY
EARLY EVENING...WITH IFR LIKELY AFTER 03Z ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...A TIGHTENING PRES GRAD N OF
THE SE GA COASTAL LOW WILL PRODUCE NELY GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT AT THE
UPSTATE TAF SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER WELL INTO
SAT AS A SE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS SLOWLY AWAY. DRY HIGH
PRES WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A FAIRLY WET FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       MED   73%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     MED   70%
KGSP       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     MED   63%     MED   72%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   68%
KGMU       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     MED   63%     MED   79%
KAND       MED   71%     MED   64%     MED   68%     MED   75%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities