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000
FXUS62 KGSP 250243
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1030 PM EDT UPDATE...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WAS PASSING OVERHEAD AS OF
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NW
RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED
PER LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...HENCE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER
ACCORDINLY. EXPECT QUIET AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH PATCH FOG POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SW MTNS/VALLEYS BEFORE SUNRISE.

720 PM EDT UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
COVER/HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS TREND.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
REGION FORM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS UPPER WAVE EJECTS EASTWARD
THIS EVENING...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ALONG THIS
HEIGHTS ALOFT.  THUS...SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR BY EARLY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIONWIDE.  THESE COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS WILL YIELD FROST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST NC...TO INCLUDE BUNCOMBE COUNTY
AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF ASHEVILLE PROPER.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE UPSTATE AND
NC PIEDMONT HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S.  HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE ON SATURDAY EFFECTIVELY REINFORCING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  FURTHER WEST...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY PERIODS END.  AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NITE
PUSHING THRU A WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE ENUF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHRA ALONG THE TN BORDER. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MTNS...EVEN WHERE SHRA DO NOT DEVELOP.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT GUSTS SHUD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY SUN...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER. ELSEWHERE...SOME CLOUDS MAY SPILL OUT OF THE MTNS AND ACROSS
THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHUD PREVAIL.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LOW END GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WHILE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. SLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AND THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE RISE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...AFTER LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRI...UPPER RIDGING ATOP THE SE CONUS LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL HANG ON INTO TUESDAY...CONTINUING OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.
SWLY LLVL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN ON JUST HOW QUICKLY FRONTAL ZONE
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY AFFECT THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE OP GFS
SLOWER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...TOKEN SMALL SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE NC MTNS WEDNESDAY.

A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING INTO THE CWFA
ON THURSDAY. AT LEAST A LIMITED AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE L/WV TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z SUN AT ALL TERMINALS. CALM TO LIGHT NW/NE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE SW/WSW
BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AROUND 16Z SAT IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER THE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW
PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-053-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 242328
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
728 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
720 PM EDT UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
COVER/HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS TREND.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
REGION FORM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS UPPER WAVE EJECTS EASTWARD
THIS EVENING...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ALONG THIS
HEIGHTS ALOFT.  THUS...SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR BY EARLY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIONWIDE.  THESE COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS WILL YIELD FROST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST NC...TO INCLUDE BUNCOMBE COUNTY
AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF ASHEVILLE PROPER.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE UPSTATE AND
NC PIEDMONT HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S.  HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE ON SATURDAY EFFECTIVELY REINFORCING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  FURTHER WEST...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY PERIODS END.  AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NITE
PUSHING THRU A WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE ENUF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHRA ALONG THE TN BORDER. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MTNS...EVEN WHERE SHRA DO NOT DEVELOP.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT GUSTS SHUD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY SUN...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER. ELSEWHERE...SOME CLOUDS MAY SPILL OUT OF THE MTNS AND ACROSS
THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHUD PREVAIL.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LOW END GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WHILE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. SLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AND THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE RISE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...AFTER LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRI...UPPER RIDGING ATOP THE SE CONUS LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL HANG ON INTO TUESDAY...CONTINUING OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.
SWLY LLVL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN ON JUST HOW QUICKLY FRONTAL ZONE
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY AFFECT THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE OP GFS
SLOWER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...TOKEN SMALL SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE NC MTNS WEDNESDAY.

A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING INTO THE CWFA
ON THURSDAY. AT LEAST A LIMITED AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE L/WV TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z SUN AT ALL TERMINALS. CALM TO LIGHT NW/NE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE SW/WSW
BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AROUND 16Z SAT IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER THE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW
PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-053-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241850
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
REGION FORM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS UPPER WAVE EJECTS EASTWARD
THIS EVENING...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ALONG THIS
HEIGHTS ALOFT.  THUS...SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR BY EARLY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIONWIDE.  THESE COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS WILL YIELD FROST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST NC...TO INCLUDE BUNCOMBE COUNTY
AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF ASHEVILLE PROPER.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE UPSTATE AND
NC PIEDMONT HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S.  HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE ON SATURDAY EFFECTIVELY REINFORCING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  FURTHER WEST...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY PERIODS END.  AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NITE
PUSHING THRU A WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE ENUF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHRA ALONG THE TN BORDER. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MTNS...EVEN WHERE SHRA DO NOT DEVELOP.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT GUSTS SHUD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY SUN...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER. ELSEWHERE...SOME CLOUDS MAY SPILL OUT OF THE MTNS AND ACROSS
THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHUD PREVAIL.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LOW END GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WHILE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. SLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AND THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE RISE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...AFTER LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRI...UPPER RIDGING ATOP THE SE CONUS LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL HANG ON INTO TUESDAY...CONTINUING OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.
SWLY LLVL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN ON JUST HOW QUICKLY FRONTAL ZONE
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY AFFECT THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE OP GFS
SLOWER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...TOKEN SMALL SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE NC MTNS WEDNESDAY.

A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING INTO THE CWFA
ON THURSDAY. AT LEAST A LIMITED AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE L/WV TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE RESPONSIBLE UPPER SHORT WAVE EJECTS EAST.
SKIES WILL SCT AND WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER BEHIND THIS FEATURE
LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/COOL NIGHT AHEAD.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW
PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-053-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241742
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
142 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.  DID TWEAK TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.  FULL FORECAST
DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM...A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ACRS THE TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SOME OF THAT CLOUD COVER HAS ALREADY BEEN
SPREADING INTO THE AREA...AND THAT HAS HELPED LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOMEWHAT. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE AIR IS FAIRLY
DRY...THEREFORE SO FAR NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED. IT/S ALSO
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH FROST IS DEVELOPING OUT THERE. WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
SOME OF THE HIGH ELEV VALLEYS. I WILL JUST RESEND THE PRODUCT TO
FRESHEN WORDING.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...AND UNTIL
THE BACK EDGE OF THE VORT MAX EXITS TO THE EAST...THERE SHUD BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LINGERING. THIS MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS A
HAIR...WITH THICKNESSES RISING ABOUT 5-10 DAM...BUT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NOTICEABLY WARMER IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WITH LESS
CAA AND WIND.

TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SO WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS
SHUD ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND LWR-MID
40S ACRS THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.
MAY NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY MORNING...FOR MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX BUILDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY MTN CLOUDS. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER
40S EAST.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND PLENTY OF SUNLIGHT. USING A
BLEND OF MOS...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WITHIN
THE MTN VALLEYS TO U70S EAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT
SFC WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT QUIET WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDS. MON THROUGH TUES...THE CENTER OF A
590 DM RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A BROAD TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTH...SFC INSTABILITY MAY BECOME WEAK DURING WED AND THURS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AN INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT
SHRA...WITH ISO MTN TSRA ON THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE RESPONSIBLE UPPER SHORT WAVE EJECTS EAST.
SKIES WILL SCT AND WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER BEHIND THIS FEATURE
LEADING TO A RATHER CALM/COOL NIGHT AHEAD.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MORNING AT ALL SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW
PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241420
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WARMING NICELY DESPITE SCT
MID CLOUDS THAT HAVE USHERED IN WITH APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE.
MOST SITES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ARE ALREADY REPORTING IN THE MID 50S
WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATION SITES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  MADE
SLIGHT TWEAKS TO SKY FORECAST ALONG WITH UPDATING TEMPERATURE TRENDS
IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM.  DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE LITTLE TN
RIVER VALLEY IS STARTING TO ERODE ON SCHEDULE.  OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM...A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ACRS THE TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SOME OF THAT CLOUD COVER HAS ALREADY BEEN
SPREADING INTO THE AREA...AND THAT HAS HELPED LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOMEWHAT. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE AIR IS FAIRLY
DRY...THEREFORE SO FAR NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED. IT/S ALSO
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH FROST IS DEVELOPING OUT THERE. WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
SOME OF THE HIGH ELEV VALLEYS. I WILL JUST RESEND THE PRODUCT TO
FRESHEN WORDING.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...AND UNTIL
THE BACK EDGE OF THE VORT MAX EXITS TO THE EAST...THERE SHUD BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LINGERING. THIS MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS A
HAIR...WITH THICKNESSES RISING ABOUT 5-10 DAM...BUT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NOTICEABLY WARMER IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WITH LESS
CAA AND WIND.

TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SO WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS
SHUD ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND LWR-MID
40S ACRS THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.
MAY NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY MORNING...FOR MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX BUILDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY MTN CLOUDS. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER
40S EAST.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND PLENTY OF SUNLIGHT. USING A
BLEND OF MOS...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WITHIN
THE MTN VALLEYS TO U70S EAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT
SFC WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT QUIET WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDS. MON THROUGH TUES...THE CENTER OF A
590 DM RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A BROAD TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTH...SFC INSTABILITY MAY BECOME WEAK DURING WED AND THURS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AN INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT
SHRA...WITH ISO MTN TSRA ON THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PASSING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THRU MIDDAY...THEN GENERALLY CLEAR BY THIS
EVENING THRU TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT NLY THRU
THIS MRNG...THEN VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CALM WIND
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF FOG...ESP AT KAVL. I
WILL ADD A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241420
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WARMING NICELY DESPITE SCT
MID CLOUDS THAT HAVE USHERED IN WITH APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE.
MOST SITES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ARE ALREADY REPORTING IN THE MID 50S
WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATION SITES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  MADE
SLIGHT TWEAKS TO SKY FORECAST ALONG WITH UPDATING TEMPERATURE TRENDS
IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM.  DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE LITTLE TN
RIVER VALLEY IS STARTING TO ERODE ON SCHEDULE.  OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 330 AM...A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ACRS THE TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SOME OF THAT CLOUD COVER HAS ALREADY BEEN
SPREADING INTO THE AREA...AND THAT HAS HELPED LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOMEWHAT. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE AIR IS FAIRLY
DRY...THEREFORE SO FAR NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED. IT/S ALSO
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH FROST IS DEVELOPING OUT THERE. WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
SOME OF THE HIGH ELEV VALLEYS. I WILL JUST RESEND THE PRODUCT TO
FRESHEN WORDING.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...AND UNTIL
THE BACK EDGE OF THE VORT MAX EXITS TO THE EAST...THERE SHUD BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LINGERING. THIS MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS A
HAIR...WITH THICKNESSES RISING ABOUT 5-10 DAM...BUT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NOTICEABLY WARMER IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WITH LESS
CAA AND WIND.

TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SO WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS
SHUD ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND LWR-MID
40S ACRS THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.
MAY NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY MORNING...FOR MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX BUILDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY MTN CLOUDS. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER
40S EAST.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND PLENTY OF SUNLIGHT. USING A
BLEND OF MOS...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WITHIN
THE MTN VALLEYS TO U70S EAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT
SFC WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT QUIET WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDS. MON THROUGH TUES...THE CENTER OF A
590 DM RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A BROAD TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTH...SFC INSTABILITY MAY BECOME WEAK DURING WED AND THURS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AN INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT
SHRA...WITH ISO MTN TSRA ON THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PASSING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THRU MIDDAY...THEN GENERALLY CLEAR BY THIS
EVENING THRU TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT NLY THRU
THIS MRNG...THEN VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CALM WIND
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF FOG...ESP AT KAVL. I
WILL ADD A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241058
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM...FCST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 330 AM...A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ACRS THE TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SOME OF THAT CLOUD COVER HAS ALREADY BEEN
SPREADING INTO THE AREA...AND THAT HAS HELPED LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOMEWHAT. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE AIR IS FAIRLY
DRY...THEREFORE SO FAR NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED. IT/S ALSO
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH FROST IS DEVELOPING OUT THERE. WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
SOME OF THE HIGH ELEV VALLEYS. I WILL JUST RESEND THE PRODUCT TO
FRESHEN WORDING.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...AND UNTIL
THE BACK EDGE OF THE VORT MAX EXITS TO THE EAST...THERE SHUD BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LINGERING. THIS MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS A
HAIR...WITH THICKNESSES RISING ABOUT 5-10 DAM...BUT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NOTICEABLY WARMER IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WITH LESS
CAA AND WIND.

TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SO WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS
SHUD ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND LWR-MID
40S ACRS THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.
MAY NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY MORNING...FOR MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX BUILDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY MTN CLOUDS. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER
40S EAST.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND PLENTY OF SUNLIGHT. USING A
BLEND OF MOS...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WITHIN
THE MTN VALLEYS TO U70S EAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT
SFC WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT QUIET WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDS. MON THROUGH TUES...THE CENTER OF A
590 DM RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A BROAD TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTH...SFC INSTABILITY MAY BECOME WEAK DURING WED AND THURS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AN INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT
SHRA...WITH ISO MTN TSRA ON THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PASSING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THRU MIDDAY...THEN GENERALLY CLEAR BY THIS
EVENING THRU TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT NLY THRU
THIS MRNG...THEN VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CALM WIND
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF FOG...ESP AT KAVL. I
WILL ADD A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241058
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM...FCST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 330 AM...A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ACRS THE TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SOME OF THAT CLOUD COVER HAS ALREADY BEEN
SPREADING INTO THE AREA...AND THAT HAS HELPED LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOMEWHAT. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE AIR IS FAIRLY
DRY...THEREFORE SO FAR NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED. IT/S ALSO
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH FROST IS DEVELOPING OUT THERE. WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
SOME OF THE HIGH ELEV VALLEYS. I WILL JUST RESEND THE PRODUCT TO
FRESHEN WORDING.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...AND UNTIL
THE BACK EDGE OF THE VORT MAX EXITS TO THE EAST...THERE SHUD BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LINGERING. THIS MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS A
HAIR...WITH THICKNESSES RISING ABOUT 5-10 DAM...BUT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NOTICEABLY WARMER IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WITH LESS
CAA AND WIND.

TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SO WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS
SHUD ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND LWR-MID
40S ACRS THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.
MAY NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY MORNING...FOR MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX BUILDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY MTN CLOUDS. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER
40S EAST.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND PLENTY OF SUNLIGHT. USING A
BLEND OF MOS...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WITHIN
THE MTN VALLEYS TO U70S EAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT
SFC WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT QUIET WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDS. MON THROUGH TUES...THE CENTER OF A
590 DM RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A BROAD TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTH...SFC INSTABILITY MAY BECOME WEAK DURING WED AND THURS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AN INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT
SHRA...WITH ISO MTN TSRA ON THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PASSING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THRU MIDDAY...THEN GENERALLY CLEAR BY THIS
EVENING THRU TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT NLY THRU
THIS MRNG...THEN VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CALM WIND
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF FOG...ESP AT KAVL. I
WILL ADD A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 240754
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
000
TTAA00 KCAE 240752

AS OF 330 AM...A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ACRS THE TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SOME OF THAT CLOUD COVER HAS ALREADY BEEN
SPREADING INTO THE AREA...AND THAT HAS HELPED LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOMEWHAT. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE AIR IS FAIRLY
DRY...THEREFORE SO FAR NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED. IT/S ALSO
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH FROST IS DEVELOPING OUT THERE. WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
SOME OF THE HIGH ELEV VALLEYS. I WILL JUST RESEND THE PRODUCT TO
FRESHEN WORDING.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...AND UNTIL
THE BACK EDGE OF THE VORT MAX EXITS TO THE EAST...THERE SHUD BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LINGERING. THIS MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS A
HAIR...WITH THICKNESSES RISING ABOUT 5-10 DAM...BUT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NOTICEABLY WARMER IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WITH LESS
CAA AND WIND.

TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SO WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS
SHUD ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND LWR-MID
40S ACRS THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.
MAY NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY MORNING...FOR MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX BUILDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY MTN CLOUDS. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER
40S EAST.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND PLENTY OF SUNLIGHT. USING A
BLEND OF MOS...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WITHIN
THE MTN VALLEYS TO U70S EAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT
SFC WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT QUIET WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDS. MON THROUGH TUES...THE CENTER OF A
590 DM RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A BROAD TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTH...SFC INSTABILITY MAY BECOME WEAK DURING WED AND THURS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AN INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT
SHRA...WITH ISO MTN TSRA ON THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
000
TTAA00 KCAE 240601

AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF FOG AT
KAVL/KAND/KHKY...BUT WITH DEWPT DEPRESSIONS STILL RUNNING SEVERAL
DEG AT ALL TAF SITES...AND A QUITE A BIT OF THICK CIRRUS STREAMING
OVERHEAD...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME PASSING MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT NLY THRU THIS
MRNG...THEN VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 240605
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 200 AM...FOR THE 0530 UTC UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NEEDED. I UPDATED THE WIND/SKY/FOG FCST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
THE 06Z TAFS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

1030 EDT PM UPDATE...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN HOURLY SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE FCST
TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE SC. HENCE...HAVE INCREASED
FRI MORNING LOWS BY A FEW  THERE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FROST ADVISORY
OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS LOOKS OKAY GIVEN THE
SURFACE OBS TREND.

700 PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND
TD PER LATEST SURFACE OBS TREND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER THE CP HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...EJECTING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
15-20MPH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-25MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AS CHANNELING
ENHANCES FLOW.  OTHERWISE...PREDOMINATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
LOW TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS.  AS SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL LOWS.  AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS COMBINED WITH RELAXING PGF/WINDS...FROST
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NC.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER EXPECTING THIS TO
BE RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE.  THUS...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
FROST ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISRUPTING THE PATTERN
FRIDAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BEING THE ONLY WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN LEADING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THU...NW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AS AN UPPER
TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
ON SUN AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA SAT THEN WEAKENS SAT
NITE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FROM NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
GUIDANCE BLEND NOW FAVORS A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES SAT NITE...SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FCST. THERE CERTAINLY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THIS TIME...
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THU...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA MON THEN THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE TUE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA MON AND OFF SHORE TUE...BUT REMAINS WEAKLY RIDGED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO CLEAR SKIES MON AND SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUDS TUE. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOWS START
OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND RISE EVEN HIGHER MON NITE. AN UPPER
TROF CROSSES THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER AND
DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER THE
AREA THU IN THE LINGERING WEAK LONG WAVE TROF OR SWLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
AND MORE MOIST SYSTEM. THE ECMWF THEN PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THU WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND AND HAVE POP INCREASING TO
CHC WEST AND SLIGHT CHC EAST WED/WED NITE THEN DROPPING BACK TO
SLIGHT CHC THU. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOW A SLOW COOLING
TREND FROM WED TO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF FOG AT
KAVL/KAND/KHKY...BUT WITH DEWPT DEPRESSIONS STILL RUNNING SEVERAL
DEG AT ALL TAF SITES...AND A QUITE A BIT OF THICK CIRRUS STREAMING
OVERHEAD...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME PASSING MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT NLY THRU THIS
MRNG...THEN VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 240251
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1051 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1030 EDT PM UPDATE...LATEST IR  IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN HOURLY SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE FCST TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE SC. HENCE...HAVE
INCREASED FRI MORNING LOWS BY A FEW  THERE.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FROST ADVISORY OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE NC
MTNS/FOOTHILLS LOOKS OKAY GIVEN THE SURFACE OBS TREND.

700 PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND
TD PER LATEST SURFACE OBS TREND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER THE CP HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...EJECTING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
15-20MPH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-25MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AS CHANNELING
ENHANCES FLOW.  OTHERWISE...PREDOMINATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS.  AS SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL LOWS.  AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS COMBINED WITH RELAXING PGF/WINDS...FROST
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NC.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER EXPECTING THIS TO
BE RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE.  THUS...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
FROST ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISRUPTING THE PATTERN
FRIDAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BEING THE ONLY WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN LEADING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THU...NW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AS AN UPPER
TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
ON SUN AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA SAT THEN WEAKENS SAT
NITE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FROM NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
GUIDANCE BLEND NOW FAVORS A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES SAT NITE...SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FCST. THERE CERTAINLY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THIS TIME...
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THU...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA MON THEN THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE TUE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA MON AND OFF SHORE TUE...BUT REMAINS WEAKLY RIDGED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO CLEAR SKIES MON AND SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUDS TUE. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOWS START
OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND RISE EVEN HIGHER MON NITE. AN UPPER
TROF CROSSES THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER AND
DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER THE
AREA THU IN THE LINGERING WEAK LONG WAVE TROF OR SWLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
AND MORE MOIST SYSTEM. THE ECMWF THEN PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THU WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND AND HAVE POP INCREASING TO
CHC WEST AND SLIGHT CHC EAST WED/WED NITE THEN DROPPING BACK TO
SLIGHT CHC THU. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOW A SLOW COOLING
TREND FROM WED TO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR LEVEL FOG
RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL AND MVFR VISBY AT KAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
SEEN IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT N/NNWLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 240251
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1051 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1030 EDT PM UPDATE...LATEST IR  IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN HOURLY SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE FCST TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE SC. HENCE...HAVE
INCREASED FRI MORNING LOWS BY A FEW  THERE.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FROST ADVISORY OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE NC
MTNS/FOOTHILLS LOOKS OKAY GIVEN THE SURFACE OBS TREND.

700 PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND
TD PER LATEST SURFACE OBS TREND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER THE CP HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...EJECTING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
15-20MPH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-25MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AS CHANNELING
ENHANCES FLOW.  OTHERWISE...PREDOMINATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS.  AS SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL LOWS.  AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS COMBINED WITH RELAXING PGF/WINDS...FROST
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NC.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER EXPECTING THIS TO
BE RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE.  THUS...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
FROST ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISRUPTING THE PATTERN
FRIDAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BEING THE ONLY WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN LEADING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THU...NW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AS AN UPPER
TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
ON SUN AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA SAT THEN WEAKENS SAT
NITE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FROM NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
GUIDANCE BLEND NOW FAVORS A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES SAT NITE...SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FCST. THERE CERTAINLY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THIS TIME...
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THU...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA MON THEN THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE TUE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA MON AND OFF SHORE TUE...BUT REMAINS WEAKLY RIDGED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO CLEAR SKIES MON AND SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUDS TUE. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOWS START
OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND RISE EVEN HIGHER MON NITE. AN UPPER
TROF CROSSES THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER AND
DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER THE
AREA THU IN THE LINGERING WEAK LONG WAVE TROF OR SWLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
AND MORE MOIST SYSTEM. THE ECMWF THEN PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THU WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND AND HAVE POP INCREASING TO
CHC WEST AND SLIGHT CHC EAST WED/WED NITE THEN DROPPING BACK TO
SLIGHT CHC THU. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOW A SLOW COOLING
TREND FROM WED TO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR LEVEL FOG
RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL AND MVFR VISBY AT KAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
SEEN IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT N/NNWLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 232338
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
738 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND
TD PER LATEST SURFACE OBS TREND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER THE CP HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...EJECTING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
15-20MPH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-25MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AS CHANNELING
ENHANCES FLOW.  OTHERWISE...PREDOMINATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS.  AS SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL LOWS.  AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS COMBINED WITH RELAXING PGF/WINDS...FROST
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NC.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER EXPECTING THIS TO
BE RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE.  THUS...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
FROST ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISRUPTING THE PATTERN
FRIDAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BEING THE ONLY WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN LEADING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THU...NW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AS AN UPPER
TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
ON SUN AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA SAT THEN WEAKENS SAT
NITE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FROM NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
GUIDANCE BLEND NOW FAVORS A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES SAT NITE...SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FCST. THERE CERTAINLY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THIS TIME...
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THU...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA MON THEN THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE TUE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA MON AND OFF SHORE TUE...BUT REMAINS WEAKLY RIDGED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO CLEAR SKIES MON AND SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUDS TUE. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOWS START
OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND RISE EVEN HIGHER MON NITE. AN UPPER
TROF CROSSES THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER AND
DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER THE
AREA THU IN THE LINGERING WEAK LONG WAVE TROF OR SWLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
AND MORE MOIST SYSTEM. THE ECMWF THEN PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THU WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND AND HAVE POP INCREASING TO
CHC WEST AND SLIGHT CHC EAST WED/WED NITE THEN DROPPING BACK TO
SLIGHT CHC THU. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOW A SLOW COOLING
TREND FROM WED TO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR LEVEL FOG
RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL AND MVFR VISBY AT KAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
SEEN IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT N/NNWLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 231855
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...EJECTING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
15-20MPH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-25MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AS CHANNELING
ENHANCES FLOW.  OTHERWISE...PREDOMINATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS.  AS SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL LOWS.  AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS COMBINED WITH RELAXING PGF/WINDS...FROST
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NC.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER EXPECTING THIS TO
BE RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE.  THUS...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
FROST ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISRUPTING THE PATTERN
FRIDAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BEING THE ONLY WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN LEADING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THU...NW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AS AN UPPER
TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
ON SUN AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA SAT THEN WEAKENS SAT
NITE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FROM NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
GUIDANCE BLEND NOW FAVORS A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES SAT NITE...SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FCST. THERE CERTAINLY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THIS TIME...
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THU...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA MON THEN THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE TUE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA MON AND OFF SHORE TUE...BUT REMAINS WEAKLY RIDGED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO CLEAR SKIES MON AND SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUDS TUE. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOWS START
OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND RISE EVEN HIGHER MON NITE. AN UPPER
TROF CROSSES THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER AND
DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER THE
AREA THU IN THE LINGERING WEAK LONG WAVE TROF OR SWLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
AND MORE MOIST SYSTEM. THE ECMWF THEN PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THU WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND AND HAVE POP INCREASING TO
CHC WEST AND SLIGHT CHC EAST WED/WED NITE THEN DROPPING BACK TO
SLIGHT CHC THU. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOW A SLOW COOLING
TREND FROM WED TO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR LEVEL FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL
AND KAND BY MORNING.  LIGHT/MODERATE NW GUSTING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT DUE
TO PGF AND MIXING...THEREFORE GUSTS ARE FEATURED AT KCLT AND KAVL.
ALL SITES WILL REMAIN SKC THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE UPSLOPE ENHANCED LOW STRATUS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TONIGHT.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GUIDANCE HINTS AT
MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL AND KAND AS WINDS CALM AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THEREFORE ADDED TEMPOS FOR SUCH AT EACH SITE.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROF...THUS INCLUDED SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 231855
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...EJECTING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
15-20MPH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-25MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AS CHANNELING
ENHANCES FLOW.  OTHERWISE...PREDOMINATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS.  AS SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL LOWS.  AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS COMBINED WITH RELAXING PGF/WINDS...FROST
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NC.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER EXPECTING THIS TO
BE RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE.  THUS...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
FROST ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISRUPTING THE PATTERN
FRIDAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BEING THE ONLY WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN LEADING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THU...NW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AS AN UPPER
TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
ON SUN AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA SAT THEN WEAKENS SAT
NITE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FROM NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
GUIDANCE BLEND NOW FAVORS A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES SAT NITE...SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FCST. THERE CERTAINLY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THIS TIME...
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THU...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA MON THEN THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE TUE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA MON AND OFF SHORE TUE...BUT REMAINS WEAKLY RIDGED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO CLEAR SKIES MON AND SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUDS TUE. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOWS START
OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND RISE EVEN HIGHER MON NITE. AN UPPER
TROF CROSSES THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER AND
DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER THE
AREA THU IN THE LINGERING WEAK LONG WAVE TROF OR SWLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
AND MORE MOIST SYSTEM. THE ECMWF THEN PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THU WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND AND HAVE POP INCREASING TO
CHC WEST AND SLIGHT CHC EAST WED/WED NITE THEN DROPPING BACK TO
SLIGHT CHC THU. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOW A SLOW COOLING
TREND FROM WED TO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR LEVEL FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL
AND KAND BY MORNING.  LIGHT/MODERATE NW GUSTING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT DUE
TO PGF AND MIXING...THEREFORE GUSTS ARE FEATURED AT KCLT AND KAVL.
ALL SITES WILL REMAIN SKC THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE UPSLOPE ENHANCED LOW STRATUS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TONIGHT.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GUIDANCE HINTS AT
MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL AND KAND AS WINDS CALM AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THEREFORE ADDED TEMPOS FOR SUCH AT EACH SITE.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROF...THUS INCLUDED SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 231437
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1037 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...RATHER COOL START TO THE DAY THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN ALONG WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST GA AND THE NORTHWEST
NC PIEDMONT.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
REGIONWIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERSISTENT LOW FOG/STRATUS IN THE
LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY.  THUS...NO
CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.  DID TWEAK
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND CLOUDS
ACROSS THE WRN MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS AN UPPER TROF PULLS
NE. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FR ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN MTNS AND EXTREME
NE GA BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES ARND 13Z. TEMPS AND TD/S LOOK GOOD
WITH ONLY MINOR ADJ NEEDED TO COVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

430 AM EDT UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY GRIDS. THE TEMP
AND TD GRIDS WERE MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE DIURNAL CURVE. MESONET OBS
ACROSS THE FR.Y AREA INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF CURRENT FROST OR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AFFECTED ZONES.

AS OF 230 AM EDT...STRONG CANADIAN HIPRES WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION TODAY SUPPORTED BY S/W RIDGING AND SUBS ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE DRY CONDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
0.25 TO 0.35 WEST/EAST DURING MAX HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY ONCE AGAIN TDAY WITH INCREASING CI BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF AN ULVL TROF. THE SFC P/GRAD WILL LOOSEN OVER THE
AREA AS WELL WITH WINDS REMAINING IN A WEAK NW/LY CONFIG THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. EARLY TO MID MORNING GUSTS ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS WILL
RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE BL LOSES MOMENTUM ENERGY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...LIKELY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW A LLVL
THICKNESS TROF SLOWLY MODIFIES IN GOOD INSOL.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE THE ADVANCE OF AN H5 S/W TROF. THIS TROF
WILL BE LIMITED IN MOISTURE AND ONLY BRING ULVL CLOUDS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS ACCOUNT FOR THESE
CLOUDS...BUT STILL DEVELOP WEAK TO MODERATE SFC/BASED INVERSION
ACROSS THE CWFA. SFC TD/S WILL BE TOO LOW FOR MUCH OF A VSBY
CONCERN...BUT TD/S NEAR FREEZING WILL MAKE AREAS OF FROST PROBABLE
ACROSS ALL THE NC MTNS. A FR.Y WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NC MTN
COUNTIES NOT ALREADY TURNED OFF FOR THE SEASON BY THE EARLIER OCT
5TH FREEZE. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
MTNS AND FTHILLS...TO THE LOWER 40S NON/MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...CLASSIC AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVES OUT
OF THE MIDWEST TO REINFORCE THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THIS WAVE MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY...AND THE REMOTEST OF MOUNTAIN SHOWER CHANCES...BUT OVERALL
THE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. BY SUNDAY...HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THEREFORE...WHILE TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMO...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP A CATEGORY OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE EASTERN TROF BEING
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE THRU TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A DRY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MON AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND THE ECMWF STRONGER AND SLOWER. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE WED...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT WITH GOOD SLY FLOW INTO THE WRN CWFA BY
THAT TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS
AND NRN TIER...IN LINE WITH A MDL BLEND...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MILD TEMPS SUN SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN MON...THEN SHOW A WARMING
SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUPPORTING
RIDGING/SUBS ALOFT. THIS WILL CREATE VERY DRY PROFILES WITH SKC ALL
SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME. FROST DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT
KAVL AND KHKY BEFORE MELTING AFT 13Z. WEAK WINDS WILL REMAIN ALIGNED
UP VALLEY AT KAVL AND GENERALLY NNW/LY AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS EXCEPT
KAND...WHERE FLOW ARND THE TERRAIN WILL MAKE FOR W/LY FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. UPPER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...SBK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 231437
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1037 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...RATHER COOL START TO THE DAY THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN ALONG WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST GA AND THE NORTHWEST
NC PIEDMONT.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
REGIONWIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERSISTENT LOW FOG/STRATUS IN THE
LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY.  THUS...NO
CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.  DID TWEAK
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND CLOUDS
ACROSS THE WRN MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS AN UPPER TROF PULLS
NE. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FR ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN MTNS AND EXTREME
NE GA BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES ARND 13Z. TEMPS AND TD/S LOOK GOOD
WITH ONLY MINOR ADJ NEEDED TO COVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

430 AM EDT UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY GRIDS. THE TEMP
AND TD GRIDS WERE MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE DIURNAL CURVE. MESONET OBS
ACROSS THE FR.Y AREA INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF CURRENT FROST OR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AFFECTED ZONES.

AS OF 230 AM EDT...STRONG CANADIAN HIPRES WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION TODAY SUPPORTED BY S/W RIDGING AND SUBS ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE DRY CONDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
0.25 TO 0.35 WEST/EAST DURING MAX HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY ONCE AGAIN TDAY WITH INCREASING CI BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF AN ULVL TROF. THE SFC P/GRAD WILL LOOSEN OVER THE
AREA AS WELL WITH WINDS REMAINING IN A WEAK NW/LY CONFIG THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. EARLY TO MID MORNING GUSTS ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS WILL
RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE BL LOSES MOMENTUM ENERGY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...LIKELY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW A LLVL
THICKNESS TROF SLOWLY MODIFIES IN GOOD INSOL.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE THE ADVANCE OF AN H5 S/W TROF. THIS TROF
WILL BE LIMITED IN MOISTURE AND ONLY BRING ULVL CLOUDS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS ACCOUNT FOR THESE
CLOUDS...BUT STILL DEVELOP WEAK TO MODERATE SFC/BASED INVERSION
ACROSS THE CWFA. SFC TD/S WILL BE TOO LOW FOR MUCH OF A VSBY
CONCERN...BUT TD/S NEAR FREEZING WILL MAKE AREAS OF FROST PROBABLE
ACROSS ALL THE NC MTNS. A FR.Y WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NC MTN
COUNTIES NOT ALREADY TURNED OFF FOR THE SEASON BY THE EARLIER OCT
5TH FREEZE. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
MTNS AND FTHILLS...TO THE LOWER 40S NON/MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...CLASSIC AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVES OUT
OF THE MIDWEST TO REINFORCE THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THIS WAVE MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY...AND THE REMOTEST OF MOUNTAIN SHOWER CHANCES...BUT OVERALL
THE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. BY SUNDAY...HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THEREFORE...WHILE TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMO...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP A CATEGORY OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE EASTERN TROF BEING
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE THRU TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A DRY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MON AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND THE ECMWF STRONGER AND SLOWER. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE WED...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT WITH GOOD SLY FLOW INTO THE WRN CWFA BY
THAT TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS
AND NRN TIER...IN LINE WITH A MDL BLEND...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MILD TEMPS SUN SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN MON...THEN SHOW A WARMING
SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUPPORTING
RIDGING/SUBS ALOFT. THIS WILL CREATE VERY DRY PROFILES WITH SKC ALL
SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME. FROST DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT
KAVL AND KHKY BEFORE MELTING AFT 13Z. WEAK WINDS WILL REMAIN ALIGNED
UP VALLEY AT KAVL AND GENERALLY NNW/LY AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS EXCEPT
KAND...WHERE FLOW ARND THE TERRAIN WILL MAKE FOR W/LY FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. UPPER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...SBK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 231024
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
624 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND CLOUDS
ACROSS THE WRN MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS AN UPPER TROF PULLS
NE. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FR ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN MTNS AND EXTREME
NE GA BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES ARND 13Z. TEMPS AND TD/S LOOK GOOD
WITH ONLY MINOR ADJ NEEDED TO COVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

430 AM EDT UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY GRIDS. THE TEMP
AND TD GRIDS WERE MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE DIURNAL CURVE. MESONET OBS
ACROSS THE FR.Y AREA INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF CURRENT FROST OR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AFFECTED ZONES.

AS OF 230 AM EDT...STRONG CANADIAN HIPRES WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION TODAY SUPPORTED BY S/W RIDGING AND SUBS ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE DRY CONDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
0.25 TO 0.35 WEST/EAST DURING MAX HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY ONCE AGAIN TDAY WITH INCREASING CI BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF AN ULVL TROF. THE SFC P/GRAD WILL LOOSEN OVER THE
AREA AS WELL WITH WINDS REMAINING IN A WEAK NW/LY CONFIG THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. EARLY TO MID MORNING GUSTS ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS WILL
RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE BL LOSES MOMENTUM ENERGY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...LIKELY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW A LLVL
THICKNESS TROF SLOWLY MODIFIES IN GOOD INSOL.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE THE ADVANCE OF AN H5 S/W TROF. THIS TROF
WILL BE LIMITED IN MOISTURE AND ONLY BRING ULVL CLOUDS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS ACCOUNT FOR THESE
CLOUDS...BUT STILL DEVELOP WEAK TO MODERATE SFC/BASED INVERSION
ACROSS THE CWFA. SFC TD/S WILL BE TOO LOW FOR MUCH OF A VSBY
CONCERN...BUT TD/S NEAR FREEZING WILL MAKE AREAS OF FROST PROBABLE
ACROSS ALL THE NC MTNS. A FR.Y WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NC MTN
COUNTIES NOT ALREADY TURNED OFF FOR THE SEASON BY THE EARLIER OCT
5TH FREEZE. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
MTNS AND FTHILLS...TO THE LOWER 40S NON/MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...CLASSIC AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVES OUT
OF THE MIDWEST TO REINFORCE THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THIS WAVE MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY...AND THE REMOTEST OF MOUNTAIN SHOWER CHANCES...BUT OVERALL
THE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. BY SUNDAY...HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THEREFORE...WHILE TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMO...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP A CATEGORY OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE EASTERN TROF BEING
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE THRU TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A DRY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MON AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND THE ECMWF STRONGER AND SLOWER. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE WED...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT WITH GOOD SLY FLOW INTO THE WRN CWFA BY
THAT TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS
AND NRN TIER...IN LINE WITH A MDL BLEND...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MILD TEMPS SUN SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN MON...THEN SHOW A WARMING
SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUPPORTING
RIDGING/SUBS ALOFT. THIS WILL CREATE VERY DRY PROFILES WITH SKC ALL
SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME. FROST DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT
KAVL AND KHKY BEFORE MELTING AFT 13Z. WEAK WINDS WILL REMAIN ALIGNED
UP VALLEY AT KAVL AND GENERALLY NNW/LY AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS EXCEPT
KAND...WHERE FLOW ARND THE TERRAIN WILL MAKE FOR W/LY FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. UPPER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...SBK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 230910
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
510 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY GRIDS. THE TEMP
AND TD GRIDS WERE MOSTLY INLINE WITH THE DIURNAL CURVE. MESONET OBS
ACROSS THE FR.Y AREA INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF CURRENT FROST OR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AFFECTED ZONES.

AS OF 230 AM EDT...STRONG CANADIAN HIPRES WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION TODAY SUPPORTED BY S/W RIDGING AND SUBS ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE DRY CONDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
0.25 TO 0.35 WEST/EAST DURING MAX HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY ONCE AGAIN TDAY WITH INCREASING CI BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF AN ULVL TROF. THE SFC P/GRAD WILL LOOSEN OVER THE
AREA AS WELL WITH WINDS REMAINING IN A WEAK NW/LY CONFIG THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. EARLY TO MID MORNING GUSTS ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS WILL
RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE BL LOSES MOMENTUM ENERGY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...LIKELY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW A LLVL
THICKNESS TROF SLOWLY MODIFIES IN GOOD INSOL.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE THE ADVANCE OF AN H5 S/W TROF. THIS TROF
WILL BE LIMITED IN MOISTURE AND ONLY BRING ULVL CLOUDS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS ACCOUNT FOR THESE
CLOUDS...BUT STILL DEVELOP WEAK TO MODERATE SFC/BASED INVERSION
ACROSS THE CWFA. SFC TD/S WILL BE TOO LOW FOR MUCH OF A VSBY
CONCERN...BUT TD/S NEAR FREEZING WILL MAKE AREAS OF FROST PROBABLE
ACROSS ALL THE NC MTNS. A FR.Y WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NC MTN
COUNTIES NOT ALREADY TURNED OFF FOR THE SEASON BY THE EARLIER OCT
5TH FREEZE. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
MTNS AND FTHILLS...TO THE LOWER 40S NON/MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...CLASSIC AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVES OUT
OF THE MIDWEST TO REINFORCE THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THIS WAVE MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY...AND THE REMOTEST OF MOUNTAIN SHOWER CHANCES...BUT OVERALL
THE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. BY SUNDAY...HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THEREFORE...WHILE TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMO...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP A CATEGORY OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE EASTERN TROF BEING
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE THRU TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A DRY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MON AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND THE ECMWF STRONGER AND SLOWER. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE WED...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT WITH GOOD SLY FLOW INTO THE WRN CWFA BY
THAT TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS
AND NRN TIER...IN LINE WITH A MDL BLEND...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MILD TEMPS SUN SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN MON...THEN SHOW A WARMING
SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUPPORTING
RIDGING/SUBS ALOFT. THIS WILL CREATE VERY DRY PROFILES...WITH KAVL
AND KHKY POSSIBLY SEEING FEW LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. FROST DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE AFT 06Z THRU 13Z AT KAVL AND KHKY AS WELL. WEAK WINDS
WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP VALLEY AT KAVL AND GENERALLY NNW/LY AT ALL
OTHER TERMINALS EXCEPT KAND...WHERE FLOW ARND THE TERRAIN WILL MAKE
FOR W/LY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...SBK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 230733
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT...STRONG CANADIAN HIPRES WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION TODAY SUPPORTED BY S/W RIDGING AND SUBS ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE DRY CONDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
0.25 TO 0.35 WEST/EAST DURING MAX HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY ONCE AGAIN TDAY WITH INCREASING CI BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF AN ULVL TROF. THE SFC P/GRAD WILL LOOSEN OVER THE
AREA AS WELL WITH WINDS REMAINING IN A WEAK NW/LY CONFIG THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. EARLY TO MID MORNING GUSTS ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS WILL
RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE BL LOSES MOMENTUM ENERGY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...LIKELY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW A LLVL
THICKNESS TROF SLOWLY MODIFIES IN GOOD INSOL.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE THE ADVANCE OF AN H5 S/W TROF. THIS TROF
WILL BE LIMITED IN MOISTURE AND ONLY BRING ULVL CLOUDS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS ACCOUNT FOR THESE
CLOUDS...BUT STILL DEVELOP WEAK TO MODERATE SFC/BASED INVERSION
ACROSS THE CWFA. SFC TD/S WILL BE TOO LOW FOR MUCH OF A VSBY
CONCERN...BUT TD/S NEAR FREEZING WILL MAKE AREAS OF FROST PROBABLE
ACROSS ALL THE NC MTNS. A FR.Y WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NC MTN
COUNTIES NOT ALREADY TURNED OFF FOR THE SEASON BY THE EARLIER OCT
5TH FREEZE. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
MTNS AND FTHILLS...TO THE LOWER 40S NON/MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...CLASSIC AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVES OUT
OF THE MIDWEST TO REINFORCE THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THIS WAVE MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY...AND THE REMOTEST OF MOUNTAIN SHOWER CHANCES...BUT OVERALL
THE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. BY SUNDAY...HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THEREFORE...WHILE TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMO...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP A CATEGORY OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE EASTERN TROF BEING
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE THRU TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A DRY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MON AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND THE ECMWF STRONGER AND SLOWER. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE WED...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT WITH GOOD SLY FLOW INTO THE WRN CWFA BY
THAT TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS
AND NRN TIER...IN LINE WITH A MDL BLEND...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MILD TEMPS SUN SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN MON...THEN SHOW A WARMING
SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUPPORTING
RIDGING/SUBS ALOFT. THIS WILL CREATE VERY DRY PROFILES...WITH KAVL
AND KHKY POSSIBLY SEEING FEW LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. FROST DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE AFT 06Z THRU 13Z AT KAVL AND KHKY AS WELL. WEAK WINDS
WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP VALLEY AT KAVL AND GENERALLY NNW/LY AT ALL
OTHER TERMINALS EXCEPT KAND...WHERE FLOW ARND THE TERRAIN WILL MAKE
FOR W/LY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...SBK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 230529
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
129 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM EDT UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO T/TD GRIDS AND ADDED MORE
SKY COVER THROUGH THE MORNING ACRS THE WRN ZONES. THE FR.Y LOOKS
GOOD WITH TEMPS AND TD/S DROPPING ALONG THE LESS MIXED SRN ZONES.

1000 PM UPDATE...COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...YIELDING PREDOMINANT CAA NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS/DEW POINTS PER LATEST SURFACE OBS TREND.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF/CYCLONE CONTINUE TO
EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  AT THE SURFACE...COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  IN
RESPONSE...NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION CONSEQUENT OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST WARMING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST SITES
HOVERING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.  INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES
AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO YIELD GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS RESIDING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHCENTRAL UPSTATE DUE TO GAP
WINDS THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.  THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES
LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 5-10MPH RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...TERRAIN BLOCKAGE ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND
ALSO IN AND AROUND THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO DECREASED
WINDS AND INCREASED FOG POTENTIAL.  NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY DRY THAT FAR SOUTH...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THESE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE VISB
REDUCTIONS OF AROUND 4-5 MILES BY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...QUIET/COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HOLD IN
THE LOWER 40S.  DESPITE THE COLD AND NEAR FREEZING MINS TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST CONCERNS AS
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEVELS UNSUPPORTIVE OF FROST FORMATION.
WEAKER WINDS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AND
SOUTHWEST NC COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WOULD SUPPORT
FROST POTENTIAL...THUS WILL LIKELY ISSUE FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE
ZONES.  ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING PREVAILS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WED...TYPICALLY BENIGN MID-AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...AND THE MEAN EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS REINFORCED BY A
SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CORN BELT REGION THU NITE/FRI. THE TROF
MOVES EAST FRI NITE/SAT LEAVING NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT NW
FLOW AND PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHUD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NC MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE SHOWERS. WILL
SEE COOL NITES AND MILD DAYS WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR THE MTN ZONES WHERE
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE STILL BEING ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE EASTERN TROF BEING
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE THRU TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A DRY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MON AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND THE ECMWF STRONGER AND SLOWER. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE WED...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT WITH GOOD SLY FLOW INTO THE WRN CWFA BY
THAT TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS
AND NRN TIER...IN LINE WITH A MDL BLEND...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MILD TEMPS SUN SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN MON...THEN SHOW A WARMING
SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUPPORTING
RIDGING/SUBS ALOFT. THIS WILL CREATE VERY DRY PROFILES...WITH KAVL
AND KHKY POSSIBLY SEEING FEW LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. FROST DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE AFT 06Z THRU 13Z AT KAVL AND KHKY AS WELL. WEAK WINDS
WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP VALLEY AT KAVL AND GENERALLY NNW/LY AT ALL
OTHER TERMINALS EXCEPT KAND...WHERE FLOW ARND THE TERRAIN WILL MAKE
FOR W/LY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH/SBK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...SBK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 230251
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1051 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1000 PM UPDATE...COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...YIELDING PREDOMINANT CAA NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS/DEW POINTS PER LATEST SURFACE OBS TREND.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF/CYCLONE CONTINUE TO
EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  AT THE SURFACE...COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  IN
RESPONSE...NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION CONSEQUENT OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST WARMING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST SITES
HOVERING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.  INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES
AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO YIELD GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS RESIDING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHCENTRAL UPSTATE DUE TO GAP
WINDS THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.  THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES
LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 5-10MPH RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...TERRAIN BLOCKAGE ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND
ALSO IN AND AROUND THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO DECREASED
WINDS AND INCREASED FOG POTENTIAL.  NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY DRY THAT FAR SOUTH...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THESE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE VISB
REDUCTIONS OF AROUND 4-5 MILES BY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...QUIET/COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HOLD IN
THE LOWER 40S.  DESPITE THE COLD AND NEAR FREEZING MINS TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST CONCERNS AS
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEVELS UNSUPPORTIVE OF FROST FORMATION.
WEAKER WINDS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AND
SOUTHWEST NC COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WOULD SUPPORT
FROST POTENTIAL...THUS WILL LIKELY ISSUE FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE
ZONES.  ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING PREVAILS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WED...TYPICALLY BENIGN MID-AUTUMN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...AND THE MEAN EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY A SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CORN BELT REGION THU
NITE/FRI. THE TROF MOVES EAST FRI NITE/SAT LEAVING NWLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT NW FLOW AND PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHUD RESULT IN PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NC MTNS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT UPSLOPE SHOWERS. WILL SEE COOL NITES AND MILD DAYS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL FOR THE MTN ZONES WHERE FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE STILL
BEING ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE EASTERN TROF BEING
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE THRU TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A DRY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MON AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND THE ECMWF STRONGER AND SLOWER. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE WED...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT WITH GOOD SLY FLOW INTO THE WRN CWFA BY
THAT TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS
AND NRN TIER...IN LINE WITH A MDL BLEND...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MILD TEMPS SUN SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN MON...THEN SHOW A WARMING
SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DDHHMM
WRKTAF

AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CP HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 00Z FRI.
N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THOUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
REMAINING IN THE 6-10 KTS RANGE. PATCHY FOG MAY AFFECT OVER THE
SAVANAH RIVER VALLEYS BEFORE SUNSET. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 222351
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
751 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DDHHMM
WRKNRT

730 PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS/TD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS TREND. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF/CYCLONE CONTINUE TO
EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  AT THE SURFACE...COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  IN
RESPONSE...NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION CONSEQUENT OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST WARMING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST SITES
HOVERING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.  INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES
AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO YIELD GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS RESIDING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHCENTRAL UPSTATE DUE TO GAP
WINDS THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.  THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES
LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 5-10MPH RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...TERRAIN BLOCKAGE ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND
ALSO IN AND AROUND THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO DECREASED
WINDS AND INCREASED FOG POTENTIAL.  NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY DRY THAT FAR SOUTH...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THESE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE VISB
REDUCTIONS OF AROUND 4-5 MILES BY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...QUIET/COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HOLD IN
THE LOWER 40S.  DESPITE THE COLD AND NEAR FREEZING MINS TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST CONCERNS AS
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEVELS UNSUPPORTIVE OF FROST FORMATION.
WEAKER WINDS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AND
SOUTHWEST NC COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WOULD SUPPORT
FROST POTENTIAL...THUS WILL LIKELY ISSUE FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE
ZONES.  ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING PREVAILS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WED...TYPICALLY BENIGN MID-AUTUMN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...AND THE MEAN EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY A SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CORN BELT REGION THU
NITE/FRI. THE TROF MOVES EAST FRI NITE/SAT LEAVING NWLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT NW FLOW AND PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHUD RESULT IN PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NC MTNS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT UPSLOPE SHOWERS. WILL SEE COOL NITES AND MILD DAYS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL FOR THE MTN ZONES WHERE FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE STILL
BEING ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE EASTERN TROF BEING
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE THRU TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A DRY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MON AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND THE ECMWF STRONGER AND SLOWER. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE WED...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT WITH GOOD SLY FLOW INTO THE WRN CWFA BY
THAT TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS
AND NRN TIER...IN LINE WITH A MDL BLEND...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MILD TEMPS SUN SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN MON...THEN SHOW A WARMING
SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DDHHMM
WRKTAF

AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CP HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 00Z FRI.
N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THOUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
REMAINING IN THE 6-10 KTS RANGE. PATCHY FOG MAY AFFECT OVER THE
SAVANAH RIVER VALLEYS BEFORE SUNSET. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 222351
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
751 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DDHHMM
WRKNRT

730 PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS/TD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS TREND. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF/CYCLONE CONTINUE TO
EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  AT THE SURFACE...COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  IN
RESPONSE...NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION CONSEQUENT OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST WARMING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST SITES
HOVERING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.  INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES
AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO YIELD GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS RESIDING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHCENTRAL UPSTATE DUE TO GAP
WINDS THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.  THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES
LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 5-10MPH RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...TERRAIN BLOCKAGE ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND
ALSO IN AND AROUND THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO DECREASED
WINDS AND INCREASED FOG POTENTIAL.  NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY DRY THAT FAR SOUTH...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THESE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE VISB
REDUCTIONS OF AROUND 4-5 MILES BY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...QUIET/COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HOLD IN
THE LOWER 40S.  DESPITE THE COLD AND NEAR FREEZING MINS TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST CONCERNS AS
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEVELS UNSUPPORTIVE OF FROST FORMATION.
WEAKER WINDS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AND
SOUTHWEST NC COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WOULD SUPPORT
FROST POTENTIAL...THUS WILL LIKELY ISSUE FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE
ZONES.  ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING PREVAILS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WED...TYPICALLY BENIGN MID-AUTUMN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...AND THE MEAN EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY A SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CORN BELT REGION THU
NITE/FRI. THE TROF MOVES EAST FRI NITE/SAT LEAVING NWLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT NW FLOW AND PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHUD RESULT IN PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NC MTNS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT UPSLOPE SHOWERS. WILL SEE COOL NITES AND MILD DAYS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL FOR THE MTN ZONES WHERE FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE STILL
BEING ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE EASTERN TROF BEING
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE THRU TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A DRY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MON AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND THE ECMWF STRONGER AND SLOWER. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE WED...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT WITH GOOD SLY FLOW INTO THE WRN CWFA BY
THAT TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS
AND NRN TIER...IN LINE WITH A MDL BLEND...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MILD TEMPS SUN SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN MON...THEN SHOW A WARMING
SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DDHHMM
WRKTAF

AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CP HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 00Z FRI.
N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THOUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
REMAINING IN THE 6-10 KTS RANGE. PATCHY FOG MAY AFFECT OVER THE
SAVANAH RIVER VALLEYS BEFORE SUNSET. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 221903
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF/CYCLONE CONTINUE TO
EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  AT THE SURFACE...COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  IN
RESPONSE...NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION CONSEQUENT OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST WARMING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST SITES
HOVERING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.  INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES
AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO YIELD GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS RESIDING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHCENTRAL UPSTATE DUE TO GAP
WINDS THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.  THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES
LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 5-10MPH RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...TERRAIN BLOCKAGE ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND
ALSO IN AND AROUND THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO DECREASED
WINDS AND INCREASED FOG POTENTIAL.  NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY DRY THAT FAR SOUTH...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THESE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE VISB
REDUCTIONS OF AROUND 4-5 MILES BY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...QUIET/COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HOLD IN
THE LOWER 40S.  DESPITE THE COLD AND NEAR FREEZING MINS TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST CONCERNS AS
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEVELS UNSUPPORTIVE OF FROST FORMATION.
WEAKER WINDS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AND
SOUTHWEST NC COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WOULD SUPPORT
FROST POTENTIAL...THUS WILL LIKELY ISSUE FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE
ZONES.  ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING PREVAILS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WED...TYPICALLY BENIGN MID-AUTUMN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...AND THE MEAN EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY A SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CORN BELT REGION THU
NITE/FRI. THE TROF MOVES EAST FRI NITE/SAT LEAVING NWLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT NW FLOW AND PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHUD RESULT IN PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NC MTNS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT UPSLOPE SHOWERS. WILL SEE COOL NITES AND MILD DAYS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL FOR THE MTN ZONES WHERE FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE STILL
BEING ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE EASTERN TROF BEING
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE THRU TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A DRY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MON AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND THE ECMWF STRONGER AND SLOWER. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE WED...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT WITH GOOD SLY FLOW INTO THE WRN CWFA BY
THAT TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS
AND NRN TIER...IN LINE WITH A MDL BLEND...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MILD TEMPS SUN SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN MON...THEN SHOW A WARMING
SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS AT KAVL.  GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TAFS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE EJECT TO THE EAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE HAVE COMBINED WITH DEEPENED MIXED LAYER TO PROMOTE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL SITES.  GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AS MIXING
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED FLOW IN THE 5-8KT RANGE
LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ASIDE FOR AT KAVL
WHERE MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO INVERSION TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...WHICH WAS HANDLED WITH A TEMPO.  FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY START TO VEER EAST OF NORTH OVER THE LATER PART OF THE TAF
CYCLE WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 6-10KTS RANGE THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
BENEATH CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   65%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 221901
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
301 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF/CYCLONE CONTINUE TO
EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  AT THE SURFACE...COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  IN
RESPONSE...NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION CONSEQUENT OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST WARMING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST SITES
HOVERING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.  INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES
AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO YIELD GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS RESIDING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHCENTRAL UPSTATE DUE TO GAP
WINDS THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.  THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES
LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 5-10MPH RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...TERRAIN BLOCKAGE ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND
ALSO IN AND AROUND THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO DECREASED
WINDS AND INCREASED FOG POTENTIAL.  NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY DRY THAT FAR SOUTH...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THESE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE VISB
REDUCTIONS OF AROUND 4-5 MILES BY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...QUIET/COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HOLD IN
THE LOWER 40S.  DESPITE THE COLD AND NEAR FREEZING MINS TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST CONCERNS AS
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEVELS UNSUPPORTIVE OF FROST FORMATION.
WEAKER WINDS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AND
SOUTHWEST NC COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WOULD SUPPORT
FROST POTENTIAL...THUS WILL LIKELY ISSUE FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE
ZONES.  ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING PREVAILS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WED...TYPICALLY BENIGN MID-AUTUMN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...AND THE MEAN EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY A SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CORN BELT REGION THU
NITE/FRI. THE TROF MOVES EAST FRI NITE/SAT LEAVING NWLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT NW FLOW AND PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHUD RESULT IN PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NC MTNS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT UPSLOPE SHOWERS. WILL SEE COOL NITES AND MILD DAYS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL FOR THE MTN ZONES WHERE FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE STILL
BEING ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE EASTERN TROF BEING
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE THRU TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A DRY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MON AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND THE ECMWF STRONGER AND SLOWER. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE WED...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT WITH GOOD SLY FLOW INTO THE WRN CWFA BY
THAT TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS
AND NRN TIER...IN LINE WITH A MDL BLEND...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MILD TEMPS SUN SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN MON...THEN SHOW A WARMING
SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS AT KAVL.  GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TAFS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE EJECT TO THE EAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE HAVE COMBINED WITH DEEPENED MIXED LAYER TO PROMOTE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL SITES.  GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AS MIXING
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED FLOW IN THE 5-8KT RANGE
LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ASIDE FOR AT KAVL
WHERE MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO INVERSION TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...WHICH WAS HANDLED WITH A TEMPO.  FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY START TO VEER EAST OF NORTH OVER THE LATER PART OF THE TAF
CYCLE WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 6-10KTS RANGE THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
BENEATH CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   65%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG







000
FXUS62 KGSP 221731
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE/NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING BEYOND SUNSET.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
RATHER NICELY REGIONWIDE WITH MOST SITES SURGING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...UPSTREAM MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND ERN TN. DON/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS AFFECTING THE WRN
NC MTNS OVERNIGHT AS NW/LY MLVL FLOW REMAINS RATHER UN/ENERGETIC.
THERE IS STILL A GOOD H85 T/GRAD ATOP THE NC MTNS PROVIDING DOWNWARD
OMEGA AND MODERATE GUSTY CONDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LLVL
FLOW REMAINS CHANNELED AND A GAP WIND HAS DEVELOPED INTO THE NRN
UPSTATE BRING LOW END GUSTS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WONT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE DAY...WITH THE ULVL
TROF SLOWLY PULLING NE WHILE A CP HIPRES SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CENTER
OVER THE ERN MIDWEST. WITH THE CP AIRMASS MIX...PWATS WILL DROP TO
ARND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL OFFSETTING MUCH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...SCT/BKN CU AND STCU WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR WRN
ZONES. THE AIRMASS MIX WILL ALSO KEEP LLVL THICKNESSES SHALLOW AND
MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS AND
ARND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MTN VALLEYS WHERE H85 CAA REMAINS THE
STRONGEST. THE FAR SRN ZONES SHOULD SEE MAXES NEAR NORMAL IN LESS
AIRMASS MIXING AND GOOD INSOL.

THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS ALIGNED NW/LY OVERNIGHT WITHIN A TIGHT
HEIGHT FIELD...HOWEVER THE LLVLS WILL SEE A GENERAL BROADENING OF
THE P/GRAD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NW. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND THE SFC THERMAL LAYER TO DECOUPLE A LITTLE AND
MINS WILL DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO FROST CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT AS LLVL MIXING REMAINS OVER THE NW MTN ZONES...THE SRN MTNS
COULD SEE PATCHY FROST BUT THESE COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY HAD A FREEZE
THIS FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...TYPICALLY BENIGN MID-AUTUMN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...AS UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...AND THE MEAN EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS REINFORCED BY A
SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CORN BELT REGION THU NIGHT/FRIDAY.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE SHOWERS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FROST AND
POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS IN THE MTNS. HOWEVER...MTN ZONES FOR WHICH
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE STILL BEING ISSUED WILL BE THE LEAST
LIKELY TO GET COLD...AS NW FLOW MAY RESULT IN PERSISTENT UP-VALLEY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...ESP IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS INVADE THE WEST COAST. THIS RESULTS IN ESTABLISHMENT OF
A LONG WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHICH PROGRESSES TO THE
EASTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF GENERALLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
REGION DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR A FROPA MAY INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THERE ARE SIGNS THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
FLATTEN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CREEP ABOVE NORMAL BY
DAY 7...AS DEEP BUT DRY SW FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS AT KAVL.  GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TAFS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE EJECT TO THE EAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE HAVE COMBINED WITH DEEPENED MIXED LAYER TO PROMOTE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL SITES.  GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AS MIXING
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED FLOW IN THE 5-8KT RANGE
LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ASIDE FOR AT KAVL
WHERE MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO INVERSION TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...WHICH WAS HANDLED WITH A TEMPO.  FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY START TO VEER EAST OF NORTH OVER THE LATER PART OF THE TAF
CYCLE WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 6-10KTS RANGE THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
BENEATH CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   65%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 221731
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE/NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING BEYOND SUNSET.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
RATHER NICELY REGIONWIDE WITH MOST SITES SURGING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...UPSTREAM MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND ERN TN. DON/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS AFFECTING THE WRN
NC MTNS OVERNIGHT AS NW/LY MLVL FLOW REMAINS RATHER UN/ENERGETIC.
THERE IS STILL A GOOD H85 T/GRAD ATOP THE NC MTNS PROVIDING DOWNWARD
OMEGA AND MODERATE GUSTY CONDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LLVL
FLOW REMAINS CHANNELED AND A GAP WIND HAS DEVELOPED INTO THE NRN
UPSTATE BRING LOW END GUSTS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WONT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE DAY...WITH THE ULVL
TROF SLOWLY PULLING NE WHILE A CP HIPRES SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CENTER
OVER THE ERN MIDWEST. WITH THE CP AIRMASS MIX...PWATS WILL DROP TO
ARND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL OFFSETTING MUCH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...SCT/BKN CU AND STCU WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR WRN
ZONES. THE AIRMASS MIX WILL ALSO KEEP LLVL THICKNESSES SHALLOW AND
MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS AND
ARND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MTN VALLEYS WHERE H85 CAA REMAINS THE
STRONGEST. THE FAR SRN ZONES SHOULD SEE MAXES NEAR NORMAL IN LESS
AIRMASS MIXING AND GOOD INSOL.

THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS ALIGNED NW/LY OVERNIGHT WITHIN A TIGHT
HEIGHT FIELD...HOWEVER THE LLVLS WILL SEE A GENERAL BROADENING OF
THE P/GRAD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NW. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND THE SFC THERMAL LAYER TO DECOUPLE A LITTLE AND
MINS WILL DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO FROST CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT AS LLVL MIXING REMAINS OVER THE NW MTN ZONES...THE SRN MTNS
COULD SEE PATCHY FROST BUT THESE COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY HAD A FREEZE
THIS FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...TYPICALLY BENIGN MID-AUTUMN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...AS UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...AND THE MEAN EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS REINFORCED BY A
SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CORN BELT REGION THU NIGHT/FRIDAY.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE SHOWERS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FROST AND
POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS IN THE MTNS. HOWEVER...MTN ZONES FOR WHICH
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE STILL BEING ISSUED WILL BE THE LEAST
LIKELY TO GET COLD...AS NW FLOW MAY RESULT IN PERSISTENT UP-VALLEY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...ESP IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS INVADE THE WEST COAST. THIS RESULTS IN ESTABLISHMENT OF
A LONG WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHICH PROGRESSES TO THE
EASTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF GENERALLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
REGION DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR A FROPA MAY INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THERE ARE SIGNS THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
FLATTEN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CREEP ABOVE NORMAL BY
DAY 7...AS DEEP BUT DRY SW FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS AT KAVL.  GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TAFS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE EJECT TO THE EAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND INTRUDING
SURFACE RIDGE HAVE COMBINED WITH DEEPENED MIXED LAYER TO PROMOTE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL SITES.  GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AS MIXING
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED FLOW IN THE 5-8KT RANGE
LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ASIDE FOR AT KAVL
WHERE MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO INVERSION TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...WHICH WAS HANDLED WITH A TEMPO.  FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY START TO VEER EAST OF NORTH OVER THE LATER PART OF THE TAF
CYCLE WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 6-10KTS RANGE THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
BENEATH CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   65%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG








000
FXUS62 KGSP 221411
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1011 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW INDUCED STRATUS PERSISTS.  AS PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES REMAIN
ENHANCED ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING...NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING
TO RECOVER FROM COOLER/SLOW START THIS MORNING AS ABUNDANT
INCOMING RADIATION WARMS THE BL. OTHERWISE...CURRENT/DRY FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LATEST GUIDANCE THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 AM...UPSTREAM MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND ERN TN. DON/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS AFFECTING THE WRN
NC MTNS OVERNIGHT AS NW/LY MLVL FLOW REMAINS RATHER UN/ENERGETIC.
THERE IS STILL A GOOD H85 T/GRAD ATOP THE NC MTNS PROVIDING DOWNWARD
OMEGA AND MODERATE GUSTY CONDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LLVL
FLOW REMAINS CHANNELED AND A GAP WIND HAS DEVELOPED INTO THE NRN
UPSTATE BRING LOW END GUSTS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WONT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE DAY...WITH THE ULVL
TROF SLOWLY PULLING NE WHILE A CP HIPRES SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CENTER
OVER THE ERN MIDWEST. WITH THE CP AIRMASS MIX...PWATS WILL DROP TO
ARND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL OFFSETTING MUCH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...SCT/BKN CU AND STCU WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR WRN
ZONES. THE AIRMASS MIX WILL ALSO KEEP LLVL THICKNESSES SHALLOW AND
MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS AND
ARND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MTN VALLEYS WHERE H85 CAA REMAINS THE
STRONGEST. THE FAR SRN ZONES SHOULD SEE MAXES NEAR NORMAL IN LESS
AIRMASS MIXING AND GOOD INSOL.

THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS ALIGNED NW/LY OVERNIGHT WITHIN A TIGHT
HEIGHT FIELD...HOWEVER THE LLVLS WILL SEE A GENERAL BROADENING OF
THE P/GRAD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NW. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND THE SFC THERMAL LAYER TO DECOUPLE A LITTLE AND
MINS WILL DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO FROST CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT AS LLVL MIXING REMAINS OVER THE NW MTN ZONES...THE SRN MTNS
COULD SEE PATCHY FROST BUT THESE COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY HAD A FREEZE
THIS FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...TYPICALLY BENIGN MID-AUTUMN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...AS UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...AND THE MEAN EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS REINFORCED BY A
SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CORN BELT REGION THU NIGHT/FRIDAY.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE SHOWERS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FROST AND
POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS IN THE MTNS. HOWEVER...MTN ZONES FOR WHICH
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE STILL BEING ISSUED WILL BE THE LEAST
LIKELY TO GET COLD...AS NW FLOW MAY RESULT IN PERSISTENT UP-VALLEY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...ESP IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS INVADE THE WEST COAST. THIS RESULTS IN ESTABLISHMENT OF
A LONG WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHICH PROGRESSES TO THE
EASTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF GENERALLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
REGION DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR A FROPA MAY INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THERE ARE SIGNS THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
FLATTEN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CREEP ABOVE NORMAL BY
DAY 7...AS DEEP BUT DRY SW FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW AND H85 CAA WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS REMAINING CHANNELED UP THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY. NON/MTN SITES WILL MAINTAIN NNW/LY WINDS WITH A LOW END GUST
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THRU 00Z MAINLY AT AT KCLT AND KHKY. KAVL
WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHER GUSTS ARND 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BELOW
NORMAL PWATS WILL MIX IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING SKIES CLEAR WITH
PERHAPS FEW/SCT FAIR WX CU AND SOME THIN CI AT KAVL AND KHKY.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   65%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...SBK/CDG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 221036
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING UPDATE...NOW MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID MORNING. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN A BIT ACROSS THE CWFA WITH SOME
MODERATE GUSTS CONTNG ACRS THE HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF H85 CAA...IT WILL ONLY TAKE A LITTLE MIXING TO BRING
MODERATE GUSTS DOWN WITH WINDS AT 700 FT ARND 20 KTS...ESP ACROSS
THE MTNS. A DRY ATMOS WITH PWATS ARND 0.25 IN WILL KEEP SKIES
CLEAR EXCEPT ACROSS THE WRN NC MTNS WHERE UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST.

430 AM EDT UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJS TO THE HR/LY TEMPS. GAP
WIND INTO THE UPSTATE IS STILL EVIDENT ON BASE VEL...BUT SFC OBS NO
LONGER SUPPORT GUSTY CONDS. WITH H85 CAA DECREASING...EXPECT LOW END
GUSTS TO BE MAINTAINED OCCASIONALLY ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS...WITH
MODERATE GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AS OF 230 AM...UPSTREAM MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND ERN TN. DON/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS AFFECTING THE WRN
NC MTNS OVERNIGHT AS NW/LY MLVL FLOW REMAINS RATHER UN/ENERGETIC.
THERE IS STILL A GOOD H85 T/GRAD ATOP THE NC MTNS PROVIDING DOWNWARD
OMEGA AND MODERATE GUSTY CONDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LLVL
FLOW REMAINS CHANNELED AND A GAP WIND HAS DEVELOPED INTO THE NRN
UPSTATE BRING LOW END GUSTS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WONT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE DAY...WITH THE ULVL
TROF SLOWLY PULLING NE WHILE A CP HIPRES SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CENTER
OVER THE ERN MIDWEST. WITH THE CP AIRMASS MIX...PWATS WILL DROP TO
ARND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL OFFSETTING MUCH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...SCT/BKN CU AND STCU WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR WRN
ZONES. THE AIRMASS MIX WILL ALSO KEEP LLVL THICKNESSES SHALLOW AND
MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS AND
ARND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MTN VALLEYS WHERE H85 CAA REMAINS THE
STRONGEST. THE FAR SRN ZONES SHOULD SEE MAXES NEAR NORMAL IN LESS
AIRMASS MIXING AND GOOD INSOL.

THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS ALIGNED NW/LY OVERNIGHT WITHIN A TIGHT
HEIGHT FIELD...HOWEVER THE LLVLS WILL SEE A GENERAL BROADENING OF
THE P/GRAD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NW. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND THE SFC THERMAL LAYER TO DECOUPLE A LITTLE AND
MINS WILL DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO FROST CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT AS LLVL MIXING REMAINS OVER THE NW MTN ZONES...THE SRN MTNS
COULD SEE PATCHY FROST BUT THESE COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY HAD A FREEZE
THIS FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...TYPICALLY BENIGN MID-AUTUMN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...AS UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...AND THE MEAN EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS REINFORCED BY A
SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CORN BELT REGION THU NIGHT/FRIDAY.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE SHOWERS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FROST AND
POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS IN THE MTNS. HOWEVER...MTN ZONES FOR WHICH
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE STILL BEING ISSUED WILL BE THE LEAST
LIKELY TO GET COLD...AS NW FLOW MAY RESULT IN PERSISTENT UP-VALLEY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...ESP IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS INVADE THE WEST COAST. THIS RESULTS IN ESTABLISHMENT OF
A LONG WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHICH PROGRESSES TO THE
EASTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF GENERALLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
REGION DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR A FROPA MAY INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THERE ARE SIGNS THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
FLATTEN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CREEP ABOVE NORMAL BY
DAY 7...AS DEEP BUT DRY SW FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW AND H85 CAA WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS REMAINING CHANNELED UP THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY. NON/MTN SITES WILL MAINTAIN NNW/LY WINDS WITH A LOW END GUST
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THRU 00Z MAINLY AT AT KCLT AND KHKY. KAVL
WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHER GUSTS ARND 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BELOW
NORMAL PWATS WILL MIX IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING SKIES CLEAR WITH
PERHAPS FEW/SCT FAIR WX CU AND SOME THIN CI AT KAVL AND KHKY.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   65%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 220836
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJS TO THE HR/LY TEMPS. GAP
WIND INTO THE UPSTATE IS STILL EVIDENT ON BASE VEL...BUT SFC OBS NO
LONGER SUPPORT GUSTY CONDS. WITH H85 CAA DECREASING...EXPECT LOW END
GUSTS TO BE MAINTAINED OCCASIONALLY ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS...WITH
MODERATE GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AS OF 230 AM...UPSTREAM MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND ERN TN. DON/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS AFFECTING THE WRN
NC MTNS OVERNIGHT AS NW/LY MLVL FLOW REMAINS RATHER UN/ENERGETIC.
THERE IS STILL A GOOD H85 T/GRAD ATOP THE NC MTNS PROVIDING DOWNWARD
OMEGA AND MODERATE GUSTY CONDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LLVL
FLOW REMAINS CHANNELED AND A GAP WIND HAS DEVELOPED INTO THE NRN
UPSTATE BRING LOW END GUSTS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WONT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE DAY...WITH THE ULVL
TROF SLOWLY PULLING NE WHILE A CP HIPRES SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CENTER
OVER THE ERN MIDWEST. WITH THE CP AIRMASS MIX...PWATS WILL DROP TO
ARND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL OFFSETTING MUCH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...SCT/BKN CU AND STCU WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR WRN
ZONES. THE AIRMASS MIX WILL ALSO KEEP LLVL THICKNESSES SHALLOW AND
MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS AND
ARND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MTN VALLEYS WHERE H85 CAA REMAINS THE
STRONGEST. THE FAR SRN ZONES SHOULD SEE MAXES NEAR NORMAL IN LESS
AIRMASS MIXING AND GOOD INSOL.

THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS ALIGNED NW/LY OVERNIGHT WITHIN A TIGHT
HEIGHT FIELD...HOWEVER THE LLVLS WILL SEE A GENERAL BROADENING OF
THE P/GRAD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NW. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND THE SFC THERMAL LAYER TO DECOUPLE A LITTLE AND
MINS WILL DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO FROST CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT AS LLVL MIXING REMAINS OVER THE NW MTN ZONES...THE SRN MTNS
COULD SEE PATCHY FROST BUT THESE COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY HAD A FREEZE
THIS FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...TYPICALLY BENIGN MID-AUTUMN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...AS UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...AND THE MEAN EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS REINFORCED BY A
SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CORN BELT REGION THU NIGHT/FRIDAY.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE SHOWERS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FROST AND
POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS IN THE MTNS. HOWEVER...MTN ZONES FOR WHICH
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE STILL BEING ISSUED WILL BE THE LEAST
LIKELY TO GET COLD...AS NW FLOW MAY RESULT IN PERSISTENT UP-VALLEY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...ESP IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS INVADE THE WEST COAST. THIS RESULTS IN ESTABLISHMENT OF
A LONG WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHICH PROGRESSES TO THE
EASTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF GENERALLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
REGION DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR A FROPA MAY INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THERE ARE SIGNS THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
FLATTEN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CREEP ABOVE NORMAL BY
DAY 7...AS DEEP BUT DRY SW FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW AND H85 CAA WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS REMAINING CHANNELED UP THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY. NON/MTN SITES WILL MAINTAIN NNW/LY WINDS WITH A LOW END GUST
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THRU 00Z AT KCLT AND KHKY. KAVL WILL LIKELY
SEE HIGHER GUSTS ARND 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL PWATS WILL
MIX IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING SKIES CLEAR WITH PERHAPS FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU AT KAVL AND KHKY.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 220743
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM...UPSTREAM MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND ERN TN. DON/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS AFFECTING THE WRN
NC MTNS OVERNIGHT AS NW/LY MLVL FLOW REMAINS RATHER UN/ENERGETIC.
THERE IS STILL A GOOD H85 T/GRAD ATOP THE NC MTNS PROVIDING DOWNWARD
OMEGA AND MODERATE GUSTY CONDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LLVL
FLOW REMAINS CHANNELED AND A GAP WIND HAS DEVELOPED INTO THE NRN
UPSTATE BRING LOW END GUSTS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WONT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE DAY...WITH THE ULVL
TROF SLOWLY PULLING NE WHILE A CP HIPRES SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CENTER
OVER THE ERN MIDWEST. WITH THE CP AIRMASS MIX...PWATS WILL DROP TO
ARND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL OFFSETTING MUCH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...SCT/BKN CU AND STCU WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR WRN
ZONES. THE AIRMASS MIX WILL ALSO KEEP LLVL THICKNESSES SHALLOW AND
MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS AND
ARND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MTN VALLEYS WHERE H85 CAA REMAINS THE
STRONGEST. THE FAR SRN ZONES SHOULD SEE MAXES NEAR NORMAL IN LESS
AIRMASS MIXING AND GOOD INSOL.

THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS ALIGNED NW/LY OVERNIGHT WITHIN A TIGHT
HEIGHT FIELD...HOWEVER THE LLVLS WILL SEE A GENERAL BROADENING OF
THE P/GRAD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NW. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND THE SFC THERMAL LAYER TO DECOUPLE A LITTLE AND
MINS WILL DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO FROST CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT AS LLVL MIXING REMAINS OVER THE NW MTN ZONES...THE SRN MTNS
COULD SEE PATCHY FROST BUT THESE COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY HAD A FREEZE
THIS FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...TYPICALLY BENIGN MID-AUTUMN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...AS UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...AND THE MEAN EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS REINFORCED BY A
SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CORN BELT REGION THU NIGHT/FRIDAY.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE SHOWERS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FROST AND
POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS IN THE MTNS. HOWEVER...MTN ZONES FOR WHICH
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE STILL BEING ISSUED WILL BE THE LEAST
LIKELY TO GET COLD...AS NW FLOW MAY RESULT IN PERSISTENT UP-VALLEY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...ESP IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS INVADE THE WEST COAST. THIS RESULTS IN ESTABLISHMENT OF
A LONG WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHICH PROGRESSES TO THE
EASTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF GENERALLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
REGION DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR A FROPA MAY INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THERE ARE SIGNS THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
FLATTEN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CREEP ABOVE NORMAL BY
DAY 7...AS DEEP BUT DRY SW FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW AND H85 CAA WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS REMAINING CHANNELED UP THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY. NON/MTN SITES WILL MAINTAIN NNW/LY WINDS WITH A LOW END GUST
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THRU 00Z AT KCLT AND KHKY. KAVL WILL LIKELY
SEE HIGHER GUSTS ARND 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL PWATS WILL
MIX IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING SKIES CLEAR WITH PERHAPS FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU AT KAVL AND KHKY.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   79%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 220537
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
137 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEPS CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEHWERE.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUES INTO
THE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM EDT UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST GRIDS. MADE
SOME MODIFICATION TO THE WIND GRIDS KEEPING GUSTS ACROSS THE NRN
UPSTATE WITH GAP WIND PERSISTING. HR/LY TD/RH CURVES WERE LOWERED MOST
LOCALES TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS OF CP AIRMASS MIX.

AS OF 1015 PM...AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM INTENSIFIES ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC...NWLY 850 MB CAA FLOW STRENGTHENS ATOP THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. MOST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ABOVE
3500 FT AND IN THE LARGE N-S VALLEYS. THE LAST COUPLE OF KAVL METARS
HAVE REPORTED SOME 20-30 KT GUSTS. THE FCST LOOKS TO HAVE A HANDLE
ON THE WINDS. THE ONLY CHANGES I MADE WERE TO UPDATED THE HOURLY
TEMP AND DEWPT TRENDS THIS EVENING AND TO REMOVE THE SLGT CHC
POP...BASED ON RADAR AND SAT TRENDS.

AS OF 745 PM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE. I
TWEAKED WINDS/SKY FOR THE 00Z TAFS. I LEFT THE SLGT CHC POP ALONG
THE TN BORDER FOR TONIGHT...BUT SO FAR...THERE IS LITTLE SEEN ON
RADAR UPSTREAM. TEMPS/DWPTS ARE ON TRACK.

AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO
SWING THROUGH THE EAST/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK CYCLONE SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDATLANTIC
PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NC AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST EFFECTIVELY INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINED WITH A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL YIELD GUSTY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER
SUNSET.  THAT SAID...CHANNELING EFFECTS AND CONTINUED MODERATE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD PERSISTENT GUSTS THROUGH THE THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS.  AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...CARRIED
EARLIER FORECAST ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW POTENTIAL.  MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY STRATUS FORMATION.  CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES AND
UPPER TROF EJECTS TO THE EAST.  ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING OVERHEAD WITH UPPER HEIGHTS ALSO RISING LEADING
TO A DRY FORECAST.  DESPITE THE FROPA AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN...NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO COOL SUBSTANTIALLY.  HOWEVER
FORECAST DOES FEATURE BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALLOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SE STATES ON THU. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY SE AND MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
LATE FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...FARTHER NORTH AND LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER WAVE FOR FRIDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE 00Z EC
AND NOW THE 12Z CMC WHICH ARE SLOWER AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ONLY ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WHETHER THE
UPPER FORCING AND NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO SQEEZE OUT ANY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z
GFS/NAM SUPPORT MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. HENCE...
WILL KEEP MENTIONALB EPOPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

BACKING UP IN TIME...WITH THE DEAMPLIFYING FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BUT STILL REMAIN
SHY OF CLIMO. WED NIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY WITH MID 30S COMMON OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND EVEN SOME POCKETS OF UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN
PIEDMONT. POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS ARE LIKELY IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED. WINDS ESPECIALLY IN
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION AND FREEZING TEMPS. MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST TO WARM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH SOME JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY AHEAD THE UPPER WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM TUESDAY...GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE. AN UPPER TROF CROSSES THE AREA FRI NITE LEAVING NW FLOW OVER
THE AREA THRU SUN. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON...THEN RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES EAST ON TUE...WITH NEXT POTENTIAL WX SYSTEM REMAINING
WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHRA
ACROSS THE MTNS SAT NITE AS THE TROF MOVES THRU...BUT GUIDANCE BLEND
KEEPS FCST DRY. A DRY COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA SAT NITE...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUN AND SLOWLY SLIDES EAST MON AND TUE. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON SAT RISE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...
WHILE LOWS START OUT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND RISE TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW AND H85 CAA WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS REMAINING CHANNELED UP THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY. NON/MTN SITES WILL MAINTAIN NNW/LY WINDS WITH A LOW END GUST
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THRU 00Z AT KCLT AND KHKY. KAVL WILL LIKELY
SEE HIGHER GUSTS ARND 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL PWATS WILL
MIX IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING SKIES CLEAR WITH PERHAPS FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU AT KAVL AND KHKY.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  88%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...SBK








000
FXUS62 KGSP 220537
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
137 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEPS CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEHWERE.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUES INTO
THE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM EDT UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST GRIDS. MADE
SOME MODIFICATION TO THE WIND GRIDS KEEPING GUSTS ACROSS THE NRN
UPSTATE WITH GAP WIND PERSISTING. HR/LY TD/RH CURVES WERE LOWERED MOST
LOCALES TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS OF CP AIRMASS MIX.

AS OF 1015 PM...AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM INTENSIFIES ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC...NWLY 850 MB CAA FLOW STRENGTHENS ATOP THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. MOST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ABOVE
3500 FT AND IN THE LARGE N-S VALLEYS. THE LAST COUPLE OF KAVL METARS
HAVE REPORTED SOME 20-30 KT GUSTS. THE FCST LOOKS TO HAVE A HANDLE
ON THE WINDS. THE ONLY CHANGES I MADE WERE TO UPDATED THE HOURLY
TEMP AND DEWPT TRENDS THIS EVENING AND TO REMOVE THE SLGT CHC
POP...BASED ON RADAR AND SAT TRENDS.

AS OF 745 PM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE. I
TWEAKED WINDS/SKY FOR THE 00Z TAFS. I LEFT THE SLGT CHC POP ALONG
THE TN BORDER FOR TONIGHT...BUT SO FAR...THERE IS LITTLE SEEN ON
RADAR UPSTREAM. TEMPS/DWPTS ARE ON TRACK.

AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO
SWING THROUGH THE EAST/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK CYCLONE SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDATLANTIC
PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NC AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST EFFECTIVELY INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINED WITH A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL YIELD GUSTY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER
SUNSET.  THAT SAID...CHANNELING EFFECTS AND CONTINUED MODERATE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD PERSISTENT GUSTS THROUGH THE THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS.  AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...CARRIED
EARLIER FORECAST ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW POTENTIAL.  MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY STRATUS FORMATION.  CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES AND
UPPER TROF EJECTS TO THE EAST.  ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING OVERHEAD WITH UPPER HEIGHTS ALSO RISING LEADING
TO A DRY FORECAST.  DESPITE THE FROPA AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN...NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO COOL SUBSTANTIALLY.  HOWEVER
FORECAST DOES FEATURE BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALLOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SE STATES ON THU. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY SE AND MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
LATE FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...FARTHER NORTH AND LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER WAVE FOR FRIDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE 00Z EC
AND NOW THE 12Z CMC WHICH ARE SLOWER AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ONLY ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WHETHER THE
UPPER FORCING AND NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO SQEEZE OUT ANY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z
GFS/NAM SUPPORT MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. HENCE...
WILL KEEP MENTIONALB EPOPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

BACKING UP IN TIME...WITH THE DEAMPLIFYING FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BUT STILL REMAIN
SHY OF CLIMO. WED NIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY WITH MID 30S COMMON OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND EVEN SOME POCKETS OF UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN
PIEDMONT. POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS ARE LIKELY IN THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED. WINDS ESPECIALLY IN
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION AND FREEZING TEMPS. MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST TO WARM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH SOME JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY AHEAD THE UPPER WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM TUESDAY...GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE. AN UPPER TROF CROSSES THE AREA FRI NITE LEAVING NW FLOW OVER
THE AREA THRU SUN. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON...THEN RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES EAST ON TUE...WITH NEXT POTENTIAL WX SYSTEM REMAINING
WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHRA
ACROSS THE MTNS SAT NITE AS THE TROF MOVES THRU...BUT GUIDANCE BLEND
KEEPS FCST DRY. A DRY COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA SAT NITE...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUN AND SLOWLY SLIDES EAST MON AND TUE. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON SAT RISE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...
WHILE LOWS START OUT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND RISE TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW AND H85 CAA WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS REMAINING CHANNELED UP THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY. NON/MTN SITES WILL MAINTAIN NNW/LY WINDS WITH A LOW END GUST
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THRU 00Z AT KCLT AND KHKY. KAVL WILL LIKELY
SEE HIGHER GUSTS ARND 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL PWATS WILL
MIX IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING SKIES CLEAR WITH PERHAPS FEW/SCT
FAIR WX CU AT KAVL AND KHKY.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  88%     MED   67%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...SBK








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