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000
FXUS62 KGSP 261513
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1013 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST...ALL MORNING WINTER HAZARDS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED
AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION NOW STRETCHES FROM NEAR BOONE
TO HICKORY AND CONTINUES TO LIFT NE. WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT
ALL BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAJOR ROAD PROBLEMS THROUGH THE DAY
ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND EVEN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL WARM QUICKLY
THROUGH THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD INSOLATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
BULK OF THE AFTN AWAY FROM THE TN BORDER AND TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED
A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...JUST AS QUICKLY AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS FROM THE WEST IN THE
FORM OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE ROLLING THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
OMEGA WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. PROFILES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORCING AND POPS. MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER WILL STILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW AND REMAIN SO THRU THE EVENT.

TRENDS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ARE A LITTLE COMPLEX WITH A VERY SHORT
RIDGE AND WEAK WAA COMING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS. THERE WAS SOME
INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT THIS WAA MIGHT CAUSE A SMALL
WARM NOSE TO DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR SLEET/FZRA IN SOME OF THE
FOOTHILLS. LATEST RUNS INDICATE THIS WAA IS TOO WEAK TO HAVE SUCH AN
EFFECT AND WE WILL ADVERTISE AN ALL RAIN/SNOW EVENT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOMEWHAT STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH WET BULB EFFECTS
PROVIDING ONLY MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT. WITH OR JUST AFTER THE CLIPPER
AXIS PASSES EARLY THANKSGIVING MRNG...WINDS VEER TO NW AND REMAIN
BRISK THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THSD FT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A JUMP IN
PRECIP RATES. THE NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THRU THURSDAY ALBEIT
WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING MODEL QPF IS NOT THAT STRONG BUT I DID
FAVOR THE HIGHER AND MORE TERRAIN-ORIENTED NAM QPF AS PART OF A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND WPC QPF. TOTAL ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND 2 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN THE MTNS
NORTH OF THE FRENCH BROAD. HALF OF THAT WILL PROBABLY FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD WHEN THE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS OVERLAP. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY AND
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR OUR
TENN BORDER ZONES IN ADDITION TO NRN JACKSON COUNTY MIDNIGHT TO NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. ENOUGH WARMING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY THAT
MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE RAIN MIX IN OR A COMPLETE TRANSITION. LIGHT
SHSN COULD CONTINUE THRU FRI MRNG THOUGH MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT TO
EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUM.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MIN TEMPS FRI
MRNG WILL BE IN THE L20S MTNS AND U20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUED NLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRI
AFTN. SLIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUNGING AS MUCH...ALSO INTRODUCING A LITTLE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO SUN...ANOTHER BROAD H5 TROF DIGS DOWN OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN STATES AND THEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME
TIME...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST SPREAD OVER THE GULF OF MEX
AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE VERY END OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH WARMER SLY FLOW INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY EARLY MON AND LAY DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
APPEARS TO SET UP A POTENTIALLY STRONG CAD PATTERN TO OUR NE BY DAY
7. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN MORE MOIST WITH
THIS FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT WEDGE PATTERN...YET AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY
TIMES BEFORE...MODELS TEND TO OVERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
LYR MOISTURE IN THESE SCENARIOS. WITH THAT SAID...THE ONLY POPS I
HAVE ARE SLIGHT TO LOW END SOLID CHANCE FROM LATE SUN ONWARD. THE
BEST CHANCES ARE STILL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE NC/TENN
BORDER REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM THRU MON WITH VALUES EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY. VALUES SHOULD COOL AGAIN AS WE GO INTO MID WEEK AND THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NELY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH 16Z BEFORE RAPIDLY
IMPROVING 16Z TO 18Z WITH DRYING FROM THE SW. VFR CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
LINGER LATER TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE PERSISTS IN
ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY BRING A STRAY
RAIN SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINAL TONIGHT...BUT PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO
REMOTE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WINDS WILL STEADILY TURN MORE NW
AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

ELSEWHERE...RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT AS
DRYING ARRIVES FROM THE SW THROUGH 18Z. TEMPO IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z...BUT VFR SHOULD QUICKLY FOLLOW. VFR CLOUDS
SHOULD THEN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE PERSISTS IN
ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY BRING A STRAY
RAIN SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINALS...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT
KAVL...OVERNIGHT BUT THE PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KGMU       HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG/JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261335
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
835 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EST...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SRN NC MTNS HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE THE NRN
MTNS WARNING/ADVISORY UP FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS THESE AREAS ARE
FINALLY SEEING THE BEST SNOW RATES OF THE EVENT. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY LATE TRANSITION TO
SNOW. THE SFC WARM LAYER LOOKS PLENTY DEEP TO MAKE FOR JUST A COLD
RAIN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE STEADY DRYING FROM THE SW WITH SLOWLY
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...JUST AS QUICKLY AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS FROM THE WEST IN THE
FORM OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE ROLLING THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
OMEGA WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. PROFILES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORCING AND POPS. MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER WILL STILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW AND REMAIN SO THRU THE EVENT.

TRENDS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ARE A LITTLE COMPLEX WITH A VERY SHORT
RIDGE AND WEAK WAA COMING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS. THERE WAS SOME
INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT THIS WAA MIGHT CAUSE A SMALL
WARM NOSE TO DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR SLEET/FZRA IN SOME OF THE
FOOTHILLS. LATEST RUNS INDICATE THIS WAA IS TOO WEAK TO HAVE SUCH AN
EFFECT AND WE WILL ADVERTISE AN ALL RAIN/SNOW EVENT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOMEWHAT STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH WET BULB EFFECTS
PROVIDING ONLY MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT. WITH OR JUST AFTER THE CLIPPER
AXIS PASSES EARLY THANKSGIVING MRNG...WINDS VEER TO NW AND REMAIN
BRISK THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THSD FT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A JUMP IN
PRECIP RATES. THE NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THRU THURSDAY ALBEIT
WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING MODEL QPF IS NOT THAT STRONG BUT I DID
FAVOR THE HIGHER AND MORE TERRAIN-ORIENTED NAM QPF AS PART OF A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND WPC QPF. TOTAL ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND 2 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN THE MTNS
NORTH OF THE FRENCH BROAD. HALF OF THAT WILL PROBABLY FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD WHEN THE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS OVERLAP. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY AND
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR OUR
TENN BORDER ZONES IN ADDITION TO NRN JACKSON COUNTY MIDNIGHT TO NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. ENOUGH WARMING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY THAT
MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE RAIN MIX IN OR A COMPLETE TRANSITION. LIGHT
SHSN COULD CONTINUE THRU FRI MRNG THOUGH MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT TO
EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUM.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MIN TEMPS FRI
MRNG WILL BE IN THE L20S MTNS AND U20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUED NLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRI
AFTN. SLIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUNGING AS MUCH...ALSO INTRODUCING A LITTLE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO SUN...ANOTHER BROAD H5 TROF DIGS DOWN OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN STATES AND THEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME
TIME...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST SPREAD OVER THE GULF OF MEX
AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE VERY END OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH WARMER SLY FLOW INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY EARLY MON AND LAY DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
APPEARS TO SET UP A POTENTIALLY STRONG CAD PATTERN TO OUR NE BY DAY
7. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN MORE MOIST WITH
THIS FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT WEDGE PATTERN...YET AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY
TIMES BEFORE...MODELS TEND TO OVERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
LYR MOISTURE IN THESE SCENARIOS. WITH THAT SAID...THE ONLY POPS I
HAVE ARE SLIGHT TO LOW END SOLID CHANCE FROM LATE SUN ONWARD. THE
BEST CHANCES ARE STILL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE NC/TENN
BORDER REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM THRU MON WITH VALUES EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY. VALUES SHOULD COOL AGAIN AS WE GO INTO MID WEEK AND THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NELY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR/LIFR CIGS FINALLY DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO COME IN AND OUT OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
PERIOD...WARRANTING A TEMPO THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE...OCNL MVFR VISBY
RESTRICTIONS IN -RA WILL CONTINUE AS WELL...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF BY NOON. MVFR CIGS SHOULD THEN LIFT TO VFR NO LATER THAN
MID-AFTERNOON. VFR CLOUDS SHOULD THEN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS
MOISTURE PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.
THIS MAY BRING A STRAY RAIN SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINAL TONIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITY APPEARS TO REMOTE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY...THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS...THEN
TURNING GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

ELSEWHERE...SPORADIC IFR/LIFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...AND OCNL CIGS WILL PERSIST AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH 14
OR 15Z...WARRANTING A TEMPO THROUGH THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...OCCL MVFR
VISBY RESTRICTIONS IN -RA WILL CONTINUE AS WELL...WITH RAIN EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF BY 15Z OR SO AT MOST TERMINALS. SNOW IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO MIX WITH THE RAIN AT KAVL. MVFR CIGS SHOULD THEN LIFT TO
VFR BY NOON-ISH. VFR CLOUDS SHOULD THEN LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY BRING A STRAY RAIN SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINALS
(SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KAVL) TONIGHT...BUT PROBABILITY APPEARS TO
REMOTE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       MED   77%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   77%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ501-503-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG/JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261335
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
835 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EST...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SRN NC MTNS HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE THE NRN
MTNS WARNING/ADVISORY UP FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS THESE AREAS ARE
FINALLY SEEING THE BEST SNOW RATES OF THE EVENT. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY LATE TRANSITION TO
SNOW. THE SFC WARM LAYER LOOKS PLENTY DEEP TO MAKE FOR JUST A COLD
RAIN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE STEADY DRYING FROM THE SW WITH SLOWLY
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...JUST AS QUICKLY AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS FROM THE WEST IN THE
FORM OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE ROLLING THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
OMEGA WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. PROFILES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORCING AND POPS. MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER WILL STILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW AND REMAIN SO THRU THE EVENT.

TRENDS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ARE A LITTLE COMPLEX WITH A VERY SHORT
RIDGE AND WEAK WAA COMING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS. THERE WAS SOME
INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT THIS WAA MIGHT CAUSE A SMALL
WARM NOSE TO DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR SLEET/FZRA IN SOME OF THE
FOOTHILLS. LATEST RUNS INDICATE THIS WAA IS TOO WEAK TO HAVE SUCH AN
EFFECT AND WE WILL ADVERTISE AN ALL RAIN/SNOW EVENT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOMEWHAT STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH WET BULB EFFECTS
PROVIDING ONLY MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT. WITH OR JUST AFTER THE CLIPPER
AXIS PASSES EARLY THANKSGIVING MRNG...WINDS VEER TO NW AND REMAIN
BRISK THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THSD FT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A JUMP IN
PRECIP RATES. THE NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THRU THURSDAY ALBEIT
WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING MODEL QPF IS NOT THAT STRONG BUT I DID
FAVOR THE HIGHER AND MORE TERRAIN-ORIENTED NAM QPF AS PART OF A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND WPC QPF. TOTAL ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND 2 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN THE MTNS
NORTH OF THE FRENCH BROAD. HALF OF THAT WILL PROBABLY FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD WHEN THE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS OVERLAP. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY AND
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR OUR
TENN BORDER ZONES IN ADDITION TO NRN JACKSON COUNTY MIDNIGHT TO NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. ENOUGH WARMING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY THAT
MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE RAIN MIX IN OR A COMPLETE TRANSITION. LIGHT
SHSN COULD CONTINUE THRU FRI MRNG THOUGH MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT TO
EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUM.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MIN TEMPS FRI
MRNG WILL BE IN THE L20S MTNS AND U20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUED NLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRI
AFTN. SLIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUNGING AS MUCH...ALSO INTRODUCING A LITTLE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO SUN...ANOTHER BROAD H5 TROF DIGS DOWN OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN STATES AND THEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME
TIME...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST SPREAD OVER THE GULF OF MEX
AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE VERY END OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH WARMER SLY FLOW INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY EARLY MON AND LAY DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
APPEARS TO SET UP A POTENTIALLY STRONG CAD PATTERN TO OUR NE BY DAY
7. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN MORE MOIST WITH
THIS FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT WEDGE PATTERN...YET AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY
TIMES BEFORE...MODELS TEND TO OVERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
LYR MOISTURE IN THESE SCENARIOS. WITH THAT SAID...THE ONLY POPS I
HAVE ARE SLIGHT TO LOW END SOLID CHANCE FROM LATE SUN ONWARD. THE
BEST CHANCES ARE STILL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE NC/TENN
BORDER REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM THRU MON WITH VALUES EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY. VALUES SHOULD COOL AGAIN AS WE GO INTO MID WEEK AND THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NELY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR/LIFR CIGS FINALLY DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO COME IN AND OUT OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
PERIOD...WARRANTING A TEMPO THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE...OCNL MVFR VISBY
RESTRICTIONS IN -RA WILL CONTINUE AS WELL...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF BY NOON. MVFR CIGS SHOULD THEN LIFT TO VFR NO LATER THAN
MID-AFTERNOON. VFR CLOUDS SHOULD THEN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS
MOISTURE PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.
THIS MAY BRING A STRAY RAIN SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINAL TONIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITY APPEARS TO REMOTE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY...THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS...THEN
TURNING GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

ELSEWHERE...SPORADIC IFR/LIFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...AND OCNL CIGS WILL PERSIST AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH 14
OR 15Z...WARRANTING A TEMPO THROUGH THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...OCCL MVFR
VISBY RESTRICTIONS IN -RA WILL CONTINUE AS WELL...WITH RAIN EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF BY 15Z OR SO AT MOST TERMINALS. SNOW IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO MIX WITH THE RAIN AT KAVL. MVFR CIGS SHOULD THEN LIFT TO
VFR BY NOON-ISH. VFR CLOUDS SHOULD THEN LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY BRING A STRAY RAIN SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINALS
(SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KAVL) TONIGHT...BUT PROBABILITY APPEARS TO
REMOTE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       MED   77%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   77%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ501-503-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG/JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 261157
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
657 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM...REPORTS FROM THE HIGH ELEVATIONS INDICATE PRECIP IS
FINALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN/CTRL NC MTNS. PRETTY
DECENT SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN REPORTED...SO SOME AREAS COULD PICK
UP A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES BEFORE ENDING. CONSIDERING CONDITIONS
ARE IN A BIT OF A STATE OF FLUX RIGHT NOW...WILL NOT ALTER THE WSW
PRODUCTS ATTM...BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY BE CANNED BY MID-MORNING. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT MINIMAL SNOWFALL (OR EVEN OCCURRENCE OF SNOW)
WILL BE SEEN BELOW ABOUT 3000 FEET.

OTHERWISE...THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
ITS WAY STEADILY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND WILL
LIKELY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON OR SO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PRECIP EVENT IS UNFOLDING MORE OR LESS AS PLANNED...WITH ONE
CAVEAT...THERE/S NO COLD AIR BELOW ABOUT 4000 FEET AT THIS TIME...
AND IT/S BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT WHERE IT/S
GOING TO COME FROM. TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTN
VALLEYS...AND EVEN IN AVERY COUNTY THERE IS NOTHING BUT LIQUID
FALLING BENEATH THE ELEVATION OF BEECH MOUNTAIN. LATEST 88D
INDICATES HEAVIER PRECIP RATES SETTING UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ATTM
(WHICH LOOKS SCARIER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS ON RADAR DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING)...SO I SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ADDITIONAL
COOLING BROUGHT ABOUT BY THESE HEAVIER RATES COULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...BUT EVEN THIS ISN/T
APPEARING TOO LIKELY ATTM. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
POUND THE TABLE RE: A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT IT HAS THUS FAR VERIFIED MUCH TOO COLD...AND
AGAIN...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...I JUST DON/T SEE WHERE ALL
THIS COLD AIR IS GOING TO COME FROM. IT HAS ALSO GOTTEN TO THE POINT
WHERE THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A LONE VOICE IN THE WILDERNESS...AS THE
LATEST RAP/GFS GUIDANCE ARE VERY WARM THIS MORNING...AND EVEN THE
00Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED ITS WARMING TREND.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...IN COLLABORATION WITH MRX/RNK...WE/VE DECIDED
TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH BEFORE MAKING RADICAL CHANGES TO THE
WSW SUITE. ONE ACTION WE WILL TAKE IS TO CHANGE THE ADVISORY FOR
MADISON/BUNCOMBE COUNTIES BACK TO A HIGH-ELEVATION PRODUCT.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX COMES SLAMMING THROUGH THE
AREA...AND PUSHES DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE UP TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN BY
AFTERNOON... ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...WITH MID/UPPER 40S EXPECTED IN THE MTN
VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...JUST AS QUICKLY AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS FROM THE WEST IN THE
FORM OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE ROLLING THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
OMEGA WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. PROFILES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORCING AND POPS. MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER WILL STILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW AND REMAIN SO THRU THE EVENT.

TRENDS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ARE A LITTLE COMPLEX WITH A VERY SHORT
RIDGE AND WEAK WAA COMING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS. THERE WAS SOME
INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT THIS WAA MIGHT CAUSE A SMALL
WARM NOSE TO DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR SLEET/FZRA IN SOME OF THE
FOOTHILLS. LATEST RUNS INDICATE THIS WAA IS TOO WEAK TO HAVE SUCH AN
EFFECT AND WE WILL ADVERTISE AN ALL RAIN/SNOW EVENT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOMEWHAT STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH WET BULB EFFECTS
PROVIDING ONLY MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT. WITH OR JUST AFTER THE CLIPPER
AXIS PASSES EARLY THANKSGIVING MRNG...WINDS VEER TO NW AND REMAIN
BRISK THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THSD FT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A JUMP IN
PRECIP RATES. THE NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THRU THURSDAY ALBEIT
WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING MODEL QPF IS NOT THAT STRONG BUT I DID
FAVOR THE HIGHER AND MORE TERRAIN-ORIENTED NAM QPF AS PART OF A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND WPC QPF. TOTAL ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND 2 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN THE MTNS
NORTH OF THE FRENCH BROAD. HALF OF THAT WILL PROBABLY FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD WHEN THE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS OVERLAP. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY AND
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR OUR
TENN BORDER ZONES IN ADDITION TO NRN JACKSON COUNTY MIDNIGHT TO NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. ENOUGH WARMING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY THAT
MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE RAIN MIX IN OR A COMPLETE TRANSITION. LIGHT
SHSN COULD CONTINUE THRU FRI MRNG THOUGH MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT TO
EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUM.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MIN TEMPS FRI
MRNG WILL BE IN THE L20S MTNS AND U20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUED NLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRI
AFTN. SLIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUNGING AS MUCH...ALSO INTRODUCING A LITTLE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO SUN...ANOTHER BROAD H5 TROF DIGS DOWN OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN STATES AND THEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME
TIME...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST SPREAD OVER THE GULF OF MEX
AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE VERY END OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH WARMER SLY FLOW INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY EARLY MON AND LAY DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
APPEARS TO SET UP A POTENTIALLY STRONG CAD PATTERN TO OUR NE BY DAY
7. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN MORE MOIST WITH
THIS FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT WEDGE PATTERN...YET AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY
TIMES BEFORE...MODELS TEND TO OVERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
LYR MOISTURE IN THESE SCENARIOS. WITH THAT SAID...THE ONLY POPS I
HAVE ARE SLIGHT TO LOW END SOLID CHANCE FROM LATE SUN ONWARD. THE
BEST CHANCES ARE STILL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE NC/TENN
BORDER REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM THRU MON WITH VALUES EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY. VALUES SHOULD COOL AGAIN AS WE GO INTO MID WEEK AND THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NELY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR/LIFR CIGS FINALLY DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO COME IN AND OUT OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
PERIOD...WARRANTING A TEMPO THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE...OCCL MVFR VISBY
RESTRICTIONS IN -RA WILL CONTINUE AS WELL...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF BY NOON. MVFR CIGS SHOULD THEN LIFT TO VFR NO LATER THAN
MID-AFTERNOON. VFR CLOUDS SHOULD THEN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS
MOISTURE PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.
THIS MAY BRING A STRAY RAIN SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINAL TONIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITY APPEARS TO REMOTE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY...THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS...THEN
TURNING GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

ELSEWHERE...SPORADIC IFR/LIFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...AND OCCL CIGS WILL PERSIST AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH 14
OR 15Z...WARRANTING A TEMPO THROUGH THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...OCCL MVFR
VISBY RESTRICTIONS IN -RA WILL CONTINUE AS WELL...WITH RAIN EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF BY 15Z OR SO AT MOST TERMINALS. SNOW IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO MIX WITH THE RAIN AT KAVL. MVFR CIGS SHOULD THEN LIFT TO
VFR BY NOON-ISH. VFR CLOUDS SHOULD THEN LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY BRING A STRAY RAIN SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINALS
(SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KAVL) TONIGHT...BUT PROBABILITY APPEARS TO
REMOTE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  82%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  83%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064-501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 261157
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
657 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM...REPORTS FROM THE HIGH ELEVATIONS INDICATE PRECIP IS
FINALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN/CTRL NC MTNS. PRETTY
DECENT SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN REPORTED...SO SOME AREAS COULD PICK
UP A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES BEFORE ENDING. CONSIDERING CONDITIONS
ARE IN A BIT OF A STATE OF FLUX RIGHT NOW...WILL NOT ALTER THE WSW
PRODUCTS ATTM...BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY BE CANNED BY MID-MORNING. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT MINIMAL SNOWFALL (OR EVEN OCCURRENCE OF SNOW)
WILL BE SEEN BELOW ABOUT 3000 FEET.

OTHERWISE...THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
ITS WAY STEADILY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND WILL
LIKELY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON OR SO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PRECIP EVENT IS UNFOLDING MORE OR LESS AS PLANNED...WITH ONE
CAVEAT...THERE/S NO COLD AIR BELOW ABOUT 4000 FEET AT THIS TIME...
AND IT/S BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT WHERE IT/S
GOING TO COME FROM. TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTN
VALLEYS...AND EVEN IN AVERY COUNTY THERE IS NOTHING BUT LIQUID
FALLING BENEATH THE ELEVATION OF BEECH MOUNTAIN. LATEST 88D
INDICATES HEAVIER PRECIP RATES SETTING UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ATTM
(WHICH LOOKS SCARIER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS ON RADAR DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING)...SO I SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ADDITIONAL
COOLING BROUGHT ABOUT BY THESE HEAVIER RATES COULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...BUT EVEN THIS ISN/T
APPEARING TOO LIKELY ATTM. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
POUND THE TABLE RE: A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT IT HAS THUS FAR VERIFIED MUCH TOO COLD...AND
AGAIN...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...I JUST DON/T SEE WHERE ALL
THIS COLD AIR IS GOING TO COME FROM. IT HAS ALSO GOTTEN TO THE POINT
WHERE THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A LONE VOICE IN THE WILDERNESS...AS THE
LATEST RAP/GFS GUIDANCE ARE VERY WARM THIS MORNING...AND EVEN THE
00Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED ITS WARMING TREND.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...IN COLLABORATION WITH MRX/RNK...WE/VE DECIDED
TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH BEFORE MAKING RADICAL CHANGES TO THE
WSW SUITE. ONE ACTION WE WILL TAKE IS TO CHANGE THE ADVISORY FOR
MADISON/BUNCOMBE COUNTIES BACK TO A HIGH-ELEVATION PRODUCT.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX COMES SLAMMING THROUGH THE
AREA...AND PUSHES DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE UP TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN BY
AFTERNOON... ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...WITH MID/UPPER 40S EXPECTED IN THE MTN
VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...JUST AS QUICKLY AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS FROM THE WEST IN THE
FORM OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE ROLLING THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
OMEGA WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. PROFILES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORCING AND POPS. MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER WILL STILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW AND REMAIN SO THRU THE EVENT.

TRENDS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ARE A LITTLE COMPLEX WITH A VERY SHORT
RIDGE AND WEAK WAA COMING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS. THERE WAS SOME
INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT THIS WAA MIGHT CAUSE A SMALL
WARM NOSE TO DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR SLEET/FZRA IN SOME OF THE
FOOTHILLS. LATEST RUNS INDICATE THIS WAA IS TOO WEAK TO HAVE SUCH AN
EFFECT AND WE WILL ADVERTISE AN ALL RAIN/SNOW EVENT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOMEWHAT STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH WET BULB EFFECTS
PROVIDING ONLY MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT. WITH OR JUST AFTER THE CLIPPER
AXIS PASSES EARLY THANKSGIVING MRNG...WINDS VEER TO NW AND REMAIN
BRISK THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THSD FT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A JUMP IN
PRECIP RATES. THE NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THRU THURSDAY ALBEIT
WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING MODEL QPF IS NOT THAT STRONG BUT I DID
FAVOR THE HIGHER AND MORE TERRAIN-ORIENTED NAM QPF AS PART OF A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND WPC QPF. TOTAL ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND 2 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN THE MTNS
NORTH OF THE FRENCH BROAD. HALF OF THAT WILL PROBABLY FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD WHEN THE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS OVERLAP. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY AND
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR OUR
TENN BORDER ZONES IN ADDITION TO NRN JACKSON COUNTY MIDNIGHT TO NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. ENOUGH WARMING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY THAT
MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE RAIN MIX IN OR A COMPLETE TRANSITION. LIGHT
SHSN COULD CONTINUE THRU FRI MRNG THOUGH MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT TO
EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUM.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MIN TEMPS FRI
MRNG WILL BE IN THE L20S MTNS AND U20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUED NLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRI
AFTN. SLIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUNGING AS MUCH...ALSO INTRODUCING A LITTLE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO SUN...ANOTHER BROAD H5 TROF DIGS DOWN OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN STATES AND THEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME
TIME...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST SPREAD OVER THE GULF OF MEX
AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE VERY END OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH WARMER SLY FLOW INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY EARLY MON AND LAY DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
APPEARS TO SET UP A POTENTIALLY STRONG CAD PATTERN TO OUR NE BY DAY
7. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN MORE MOIST WITH
THIS FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT WEDGE PATTERN...YET AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY
TIMES BEFORE...MODELS TEND TO OVERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
LYR MOISTURE IN THESE SCENARIOS. WITH THAT SAID...THE ONLY POPS I
HAVE ARE SLIGHT TO LOW END SOLID CHANCE FROM LATE SUN ONWARD. THE
BEST CHANCES ARE STILL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE NC/TENN
BORDER REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM THRU MON WITH VALUES EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY. VALUES SHOULD COOL AGAIN AS WE GO INTO MID WEEK AND THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NELY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR/LIFR CIGS FINALLY DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO COME IN AND OUT OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
PERIOD...WARRANTING A TEMPO THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE...OCCL MVFR VISBY
RESTRICTIONS IN -RA WILL CONTINUE AS WELL...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF BY NOON. MVFR CIGS SHOULD THEN LIFT TO VFR NO LATER THAN
MID-AFTERNOON. VFR CLOUDS SHOULD THEN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS
MOISTURE PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.
THIS MAY BRING A STRAY RAIN SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINAL TONIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITY APPEARS TO REMOTE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY...THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS...THEN
TURNING GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

ELSEWHERE...SPORADIC IFR/LIFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...AND OCCL CIGS WILL PERSIST AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH 14
OR 15Z...WARRANTING A TEMPO THROUGH THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...OCCL MVFR
VISBY RESTRICTIONS IN -RA WILL CONTINUE AS WELL...WITH RAIN EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF BY 15Z OR SO AT MOST TERMINALS. SNOW IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO MIX WITH THE RAIN AT KAVL. MVFR CIGS SHOULD THEN LIFT TO
VFR BY NOON-ISH. VFR CLOUDS SHOULD THEN LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY BRING A STRAY RAIN SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINALS
(SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KAVL) TONIGHT...BUT PROBABILITY APPEARS TO
REMOTE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  82%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  83%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064-501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 260848
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIP EVENT IS UNFOLDING MORE OR LESS AS PLANNED...WITH ONE
CAVEAT...THERE/S NO COLD AIR BELOW ABOUT 4000 FEET AT THIS TIME...
AND IT/S BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT WHERE IT/S
GOING TO COME FROM. TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTN
VALLEYS...AND EVEN IN AVERY COUNTY THERE IS NOTHING BUT LIQUID
FALLING BENEATH THE ELEVATION OF BEECH MOUNTAIN. LATEST 88D
INDICATES HEAVIER PRECIP RATES SETTING UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ATTM
(WHICH LOOKS SCARIER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS ON RADAR DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING)...SO I SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ADDITIONAL
COOLING BROUGHT ABOUT BY THESE HEAVIER RATES COULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...BUT EVEN THIS ISN/T
APPEARING TOO LIKELY ATTM. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
POUND THE TABLE RE: A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT IT HAS THUS FAR VERIFIED MUCH TOO COLD...AND
AGAIN...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...I JUST DON/T SEE WHERE ALL
THIS COLD AIR IS GOING TO COME FROM. IT HAS ALSO GOTTEN TO THE POINT
WHERE THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A LONE VOICE IN THE WILDERNESS...AS THE
LATEST RAP/GFS GUIDANCE ARE VERY WARM THIS MORNING...AND EVEN THE
00Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED ITS WARMING TREND.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...IN COLLABORATION WITH MRX/RNK...WE/VE DECIDED
TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH BEFORE MAKING RADICAL CHANGES TO THE
WSW SUITE. ONE ACTION WE WILL TAKE IS TO CHANGE THE ADVISORY FOR
MADISON/BUNCOMBE COUNTIES BACK TO A HIGH-ELEVATION PRODUCT.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX COMES SLAMMING THROUGH THE
AREA...AND PUSHES DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE UP TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN BY
AFTERNOON... ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...WITH MID/UPPER 40S EXPECTED IN THE MTN
VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...JUST AS QUICKLY AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS FROM THE WEST IN THE
FORM OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE ROLLING THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
OMEGA WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. PROFILES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORCING AND POPS. MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER WILL STILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW AND REMAIN SO THRU THE EVENT.

TRENDS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ARE A LITTLE COMPLEX WITH A VERY SHORT
RIDGE AND WEAK WAA COMING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS. THERE WAS SOME
INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT THIS WAA MIGHT CAUSE A SMALL
WARM NOSE TO DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR SLEET/FZRA IN SOME OF THE
FOOTHILLS. LATEST RUNS INDICATE THIS WAA IS TOO WEAK TO HAVE SUCH AN
EFFECT AND WE WILL ADVERTISE AN ALL RAIN/SNOW EVENT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOMEWHAT STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH WET BULB EFFECTS
PROVIDING ONLY MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT. WITH OR JUST AFTER THE CLIPPER
AXIS PASSES EARLY THANKSGIVING MRNG...WINDS VEER TO NW AND REMAIN
BRISK THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THSD FT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A JUMP IN
PRECIP RATES. THE NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THRU THURSDAY ALBEIT
WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING MODEL QPF IS NOT THAT STRONG BUT I DID
FAVOR THE HIGHER AND MORE TERRAIN-ORIENTED NAM QPF AS PART OF A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND WPC QPF. TOTAL ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND 2 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN THE MTNS
NORTH OF THE FRENCH BROAD. HALF OF THAT WILL PROBABLY FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD WHEN THE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS OVERLAP. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY AND
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR OUR
TENN BORDER ZONES IN ADDITION TO NRN JACKSON COUNTY MIDNIGHT TO NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. ENOUGH WARMING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY THAT
MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE RAIN MIX IN OR A COMPLETE TRANSITION. LIGHT
SHSN COULD CONTINUE THRU FRI MRNG THOUGH MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT TO
EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUM.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MIN TEMPS FRI
MRNG WILL BE IN THE L20S MTNS AND U20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUED NLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRI
AFTN. SLIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUNGING AS MUCH...ALSO INTRODUCING A LITTLE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO SUN...ANOTHER BROAD H5 TROF DIGS DOWN OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN STATES AND THEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME
TIME...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST SPREAD OVER THE GULF OF MEX
AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE VERY END OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH WARMER SLY FLOW INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY EARLY MON AND LAY DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
APPEARS TO SET UP A POTENTIALLY STRONG CAD PATTERN TO OUR NE BY DAY
7. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN MORE MOIST WITH
THIS FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT WEDGE PATTERN...YET AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY
TIMES BEFORE...MODELS TEND TO OVERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
LYR MOISTURE IN THESE SCENARIOS. WITH THAT SAID...THE ONLY POPS I
HAVE ARE SLIGHT TO LOW END SOLID CHANCE FROM LATE SUN ONWARD. THE
BEST CHANCES ARE STILL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE NC/TENN
BORDER REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM THRU MON WITH VALUES EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY. VALUES SHOULD COOL AGAIN AS WE GO INTO MID WEEK AND THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NELY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OBS
SITES TO THE SOUTH OF HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IFR/LIFR CIGS...AND
KCLT RECENTLY DETECTED FEW007. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
IFR CIGS THROUGH 09Z...WITH CATEGORICAL THEREAFTER UNTIL MID-MORNING
OR SO...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCL IFR VISBY WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE NW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS
MAY EVEN RETURN TO LIGHT SW BY EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT/MOD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MAS MOISTENS. OCCL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KAVL...WHERE SOME SNOW MAX MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS AT KAVL DURING MID-LATE MORNING. NO SNOW
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND THE RA/SN MIX HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM KHKY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT
THE LATEST.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       MED   73%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   75%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   71%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   77%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-
     049-050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048-052-
     053-059-063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 260848
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIP EVENT IS UNFOLDING MORE OR LESS AS PLANNED...WITH ONE
CAVEAT...THERE/S NO COLD AIR BELOW ABOUT 4000 FEET AT THIS TIME...
AND IT/S BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT WHERE IT/S
GOING TO COME FROM. TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTN
VALLEYS...AND EVEN IN AVERY COUNTY THERE IS NOTHING BUT LIQUID
FALLING BENEATH THE ELEVATION OF BEECH MOUNTAIN. LATEST 88D
INDICATES HEAVIER PRECIP RATES SETTING UP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ATTM
(WHICH LOOKS SCARIER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS ON RADAR DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING)...SO I SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ADDITIONAL
COOLING BROUGHT ABOUT BY THESE HEAVIER RATES COULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...BUT EVEN THIS ISN/T
APPEARING TOO LIKELY ATTM. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
POUND THE TABLE RE: A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT IT HAS THUS FAR VERIFIED MUCH TOO COLD...AND
AGAIN...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...I JUST DON/T SEE WHERE ALL
THIS COLD AIR IS GOING TO COME FROM. IT HAS ALSO GOTTEN TO THE POINT
WHERE THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A LONE VOICE IN THE WILDERNESS...AS THE
LATEST RAP/GFS GUIDANCE ARE VERY WARM THIS MORNING...AND EVEN THE
00Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED ITS WARMING TREND.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...IN COLLABORATION WITH MRX/RNK...WE/VE DECIDED
TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH BEFORE MAKING RADICAL CHANGES TO THE
WSW SUITE. ONE ACTION WE WILL TAKE IS TO CHANGE THE ADVISORY FOR
MADISON/BUNCOMBE COUNTIES BACK TO A HIGH-ELEVATION PRODUCT.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING...AS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX COMES SLAMMING THROUGH THE
AREA...AND PUSHES DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE UP TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN BY
AFTERNOON... ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...WITH MID/UPPER 40S EXPECTED IN THE MTN
VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...JUST AS QUICKLY AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS FROM THE WEST IN THE
FORM OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE ROLLING THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
OMEGA WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. PROFILES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORCING AND POPS. MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER WILL STILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW AND REMAIN SO THRU THE EVENT.

TRENDS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ARE A LITTLE COMPLEX WITH A VERY SHORT
RIDGE AND WEAK WAA COMING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS. THERE WAS SOME
INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT THIS WAA MIGHT CAUSE A SMALL
WARM NOSE TO DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR SLEET/FZRA IN SOME OF THE
FOOTHILLS. LATEST RUNS INDICATE THIS WAA IS TOO WEAK TO HAVE SUCH AN
EFFECT AND WE WILL ADVERTISE AN ALL RAIN/SNOW EVENT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOMEWHAT STEADILY OVERNIGHT WITH WET BULB EFFECTS
PROVIDING ONLY MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT. WITH OR JUST AFTER THE CLIPPER
AXIS PASSES EARLY THANKSGIVING MRNG...WINDS VEER TO NW AND REMAIN
BRISK THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THSD FT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A JUMP IN
PRECIP RATES. THE NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THRU THURSDAY ALBEIT
WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING MODEL QPF IS NOT THAT STRONG BUT I DID
FAVOR THE HIGHER AND MORE TERRAIN-ORIENTED NAM QPF AS PART OF A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND WPC QPF. TOTAL ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS...AND 2 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN THE MTNS
NORTH OF THE FRENCH BROAD. HALF OF THAT WILL PROBABLY FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD WHEN THE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS OVERLAP. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY AND
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR OUR
TENN BORDER ZONES IN ADDITION TO NRN JACKSON COUNTY MIDNIGHT TO NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. ENOUGH WARMING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY THAT
MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE RAIN MIX IN OR A COMPLETE TRANSITION. LIGHT
SHSN COULD CONTINUE THRU FRI MRNG THOUGH MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT TO
EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUM.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MIN TEMPS FRI
MRNG WILL BE IN THE L20S MTNS AND U20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUED NLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRI
AFTN. SLIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUNGING AS MUCH...ALSO INTRODUCING A LITTLE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. AS WE MOVE INTO SUN...ANOTHER BROAD H5 TROF DIGS DOWN OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN STATES AND THEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME
TIME...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST SPREAD OVER THE GULF OF MEX
AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE VERY END OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH WARMER SLY FLOW INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY EARLY MON AND LAY DOWN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
APPEARS TO SET UP A POTENTIALLY STRONG CAD PATTERN TO OUR NE BY DAY
7. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN MORE MOIST WITH
THIS FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT WEDGE PATTERN...YET AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY
TIMES BEFORE...MODELS TEND TO OVERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
LYR MOISTURE IN THESE SCENARIOS. WITH THAT SAID...THE ONLY POPS I
HAVE ARE SLIGHT TO LOW END SOLID CHANCE FROM LATE SUN ONWARD. THE
BEST CHANCES ARE STILL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE NC/TENN
BORDER REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM THRU MON WITH VALUES EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY. VALUES SHOULD COOL AGAIN AS WE GO INTO MID WEEK AND THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE NELY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OBS
SITES TO THE SOUTH OF HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IFR/LIFR CIGS...AND
KCLT RECENTLY DETECTED FEW007. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
IFR CIGS THROUGH 09Z...WITH CATEGORICAL THEREAFTER UNTIL MID-MORNING
OR SO...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCL IFR VISBY WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE NW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS
MAY EVEN RETURN TO LIGHT SW BY EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT/MOD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MAS MOISTENS. OCCL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KAVL...WHERE SOME SNOW MAX MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS AT KAVL DURING MID-LATE MORNING. NO SNOW
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND THE RA/SN MIX HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM KHKY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT
THE LATEST.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       MED   73%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   75%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   71%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   71%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   77%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-
     049-050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048-052-
     053-059-063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260632
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
132 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 110 AM...FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PRECIP EVENT IS WELL UNDER
WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST.
TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM BELOW 3000-3500 FEET...SO IT/S GOING TO TAKE
A GOOD PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEFORE SNOW LEVELS CAN FALL TO THE
LOWER VALLEY FLOORS OF THE CENTRAL NC MTNS. IF HISTORY IS ANY
GUIDE...IT/S GOING TO BE DIFFICULT FOR THIS TO OCCUR BEFORE THE
FORCING LIFTS NE. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS EVENT THAN THE NAM (AND DOESN/T HAVE QUITE THE
COLD BIAS TENDENCY OF THE NAM DURING WINTER EVENTS AROUND HERE)
SUGGESTS AN ALL-RAIN EVENT BELOW ABOUT 3000 FEET...AND IT/S REALLY
NOT EVEN CLOSE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL ALLOW THE EVENT TO UNFOLD A BIT
MORE BEFORE MAKING ANY RADICAL CHANGES TO THE WINTER WX PRODUCTS.

AS OF 1030 PM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
LINE LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE 21S
SREF PLUMES UPDATED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NC MTNS. IF CAA WAS ONGOING...IT WOULD BE A GOOD CALL TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL BASED ON SREF AND LATEST NAM AND GFS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A TOUGH CASE...PROVIDED THAT CAA WILL NOT
OCCUR BEFORE 12Z. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FORECAST SNOWFALL OR
WSW WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 850 PM...A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NW ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARD THE WET BULB. AT 1Z...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND RIDGES.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER
WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 6Z-12Z...A WIDE FIELD
OF Q-VECTOR COVERGENCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KAVL AND KTNB INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE BL
TO 20 KFT. THE DEEP FORCING COMBINED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW
GROWTH SHOULD YIELD DECENT SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL UPDATE THE WSW TO
CHANGE MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES FROM AN HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY
TO A COUNTY WIDE ADVISORY.

AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OBS
SITES TO THE SOUTH OF HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IFR/LIFR CIGS...AND
KCLT RECENTLY DETECTED FEW007. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
IFR CIGS THROUGH 09Z...WITH CATEGORICAL THEREAFTER UNTIL MID-MORNING
OR SO...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCL IFR VISBY WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE NW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS
MAY EVEN RETURN TO LIGHT SW BY EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT/MOD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MAS MOISTENS. OCCL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KAVL...WHERE SOME SNOW MAX MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS AT KAVL DURING MID-LATE MORNING. NO SNOW
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND THE RA/SN MIX HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM KHKY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT
THE LATEST.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     MED   77%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   77%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   76%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ501-503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-
     049-050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260632
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
132 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 110 AM...FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PRECIP EVENT IS WELL UNDER
WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST.
TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM BELOW 3000-3500 FEET...SO IT/S GOING TO TAKE
A GOOD PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEFORE SNOW LEVELS CAN FALL TO THE
LOWER VALLEY FLOORS OF THE CENTRAL NC MTNS. IF HISTORY IS ANY
GUIDE...IT/S GOING TO BE DIFFICULT FOR THIS TO OCCUR BEFORE THE
FORCING LIFTS NE. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS EVENT THAN THE NAM (AND DOESN/T HAVE QUITE THE
COLD BIAS TENDENCY OF THE NAM DURING WINTER EVENTS AROUND HERE)
SUGGESTS AN ALL-RAIN EVENT BELOW ABOUT 3000 FEET...AND IT/S REALLY
NOT EVEN CLOSE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL ALLOW THE EVENT TO UNFOLD A BIT
MORE BEFORE MAKING ANY RADICAL CHANGES TO THE WINTER WX PRODUCTS.

AS OF 1030 PM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
LINE LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE 21S
SREF PLUMES UPDATED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NC MTNS. IF CAA WAS ONGOING...IT WOULD BE A GOOD CALL TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL BASED ON SREF AND LATEST NAM AND GFS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A TOUGH CASE...PROVIDED THAT CAA WILL NOT
OCCUR BEFORE 12Z. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FORECAST SNOWFALL OR
WSW WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 850 PM...A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NW ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARD THE WET BULB. AT 1Z...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND RIDGES.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER
WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 6Z-12Z...A WIDE FIELD
OF Q-VECTOR COVERGENCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KAVL AND KTNB INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE BL
TO 20 KFT. THE DEEP FORCING COMBINED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW
GROWTH SHOULD YIELD DECENT SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL UPDATE THE WSW TO
CHANGE MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES FROM AN HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY
TO A COUNTY WIDE ADVISORY.

AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OBS
SITES TO THE SOUTH OF HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IFR/LIFR CIGS...AND
KCLT RECENTLY DETECTED FEW007. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
IFR CIGS THROUGH 09Z...WITH CATEGORICAL THEREAFTER UNTIL MID-MORNING
OR SO...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCL IFR VISBY WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE NW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS
MAY EVEN RETURN TO LIGHT SW BY EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT/MOD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MAS MOISTENS. OCCL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KAVL...WHERE SOME SNOW MAX MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS AT KAVL DURING MID-LATE MORNING. NO SNOW
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND THE RA/SN MIX HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM KHKY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT
THE LATEST.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     MED   77%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   77%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   76%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ501-503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-
     049-050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 260339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
LINE LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE 21S
SREF PLUMES UPDATED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NC MTNS. IF CAA WAS ONGOING...IT WOULD BE A GOOD CALL TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL BASED ON SREF AND LATEST NAM AND GFS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A TOUGH CASE...PROVIDED THAT CAA WILL NOT
OCCUR BEFORE 12Z. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FORECAST SNOWFALL OR
WSW WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 850 PM...A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NW ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARD THE WET BULB. AT 1Z...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND RIDGES.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER
WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 6Z-12Z...A WIDE FIELD
OF Q-VECTOR COVERGENCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KAVL AND KTNB INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE BL
TO 20 KFT. THE DEEP FORCING COMBINED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW
GROWTH SHOULD YIELD DECENT SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL UPDATE THE WSW TO
CHANGE MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES FROM AN HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY
TO A COUNTY WIDE ADVISORY.

AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES. BASED ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING...RA SHOULD BEGIN AT CLT AROUND 2Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS
FALLING TO MVFR BY 2Z...WITH IFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS OVER CLT AROUND 12Z. IF
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP...IT IS POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF RASN COULD OCCUR
DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS BY 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...KAVL
IS EXPECTED TO SEE RASN BY 7Z...MIXING OVER TO SN BY 9Z.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OT KAVL BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. PRECIP WILL END FROM THE SW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 260339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
LINE LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE 21S
SREF PLUMES UPDATED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NC MTNS. IF CAA WAS ONGOING...IT WOULD BE A GOOD CALL TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL BASED ON SREF AND LATEST NAM AND GFS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A TOUGH CASE...PROVIDED THAT CAA WILL NOT
OCCUR BEFORE 12Z. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FORECAST SNOWFALL OR
WSW WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 850 PM...A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NW ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARD THE WET BULB. AT 1Z...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND RIDGES.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER
WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 6Z-12Z...A WIDE FIELD
OF Q-VECTOR COVERGENCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KAVL AND KTNB INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE BL
TO 20 KFT. THE DEEP FORCING COMBINED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW
GROWTH SHOULD YIELD DECENT SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL UPDATE THE WSW TO
CHANGE MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES FROM AN HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY
TO A COUNTY WIDE ADVISORY.

AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES. BASED ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING...RA SHOULD BEGIN AT CLT AROUND 2Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS
FALLING TO MVFR BY 2Z...WITH IFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS OVER CLT AROUND 12Z. IF
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP...IT IS POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF RASN COULD OCCUR
DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS BY 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...KAVL
IS EXPECTED TO SEE RASN BY 7Z...MIXING OVER TO SN BY 9Z.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OT KAVL BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. PRECIP WILL END FROM THE SW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
LINE LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE 21S
SREF PLUMES UPDATED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NC MTNS. IF CAA WAS ONGOING...IT WOULD BE A GOOD CALL TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL BASED ON SREF AND LATEST NAM AND GFS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A TOUGH CASE...PROVIDED THAT CAA WILL NOT
OCCUR BEFORE 12Z. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FORECAST SNOWFALL OR
WSW WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 850 PM...A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NW ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARD THE WET BULB. AT 1Z...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND RIDGES.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER
WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 6Z-12Z...A WIDE FIELD
OF Q-VECTOR COVERGENCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KAVL AND KTNB INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE BL
TO 20 KFT. THE DEEP FORCING COMBINED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW
GROWTH SHOULD YIELD DECENT SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL UPDATE THE WSW TO
CHANGE MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES FROM AN HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY
TO A COUNTY WIDE ADVISORY.

AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES. BASED ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING...RA SHOULD BEGIN AT CLT AROUND 2Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS
FALLING TO MVFR BY 2Z...WITH IFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS OVER CLT AROUND 12Z. IF
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP...IT IS POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF RASN COULD OCCUR
DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS BY 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...KAVL
IS EXPECTED TO SEE RASN BY 7Z...MIXING OVER TO SN BY 9Z.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OT KAVL BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. PRECIP WILL END FROM THE SW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260339
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
LINE LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE 21S
SREF PLUMES UPDATED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NC MTNS. IF CAA WAS ONGOING...IT WOULD BE A GOOD CALL TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL BASED ON SREF AND LATEST NAM AND GFS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A TOUGH CASE...PROVIDED THAT CAA WILL NOT
OCCUR BEFORE 12Z. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FORECAST SNOWFALL OR
WSW WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 850 PM...A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NW ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARD THE WET BULB. AT 1Z...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND RIDGES.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER
WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 6Z-12Z...A WIDE FIELD
OF Q-VECTOR COVERGENCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KAVL AND KTNB INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE BL
TO 20 KFT. THE DEEP FORCING COMBINED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW
GROWTH SHOULD YIELD DECENT SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL UPDATE THE WSW TO
CHANGE MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES FROM AN HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY
TO A COUNTY WIDE ADVISORY.

AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES. BASED ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING...RA SHOULD BEGIN AT CLT AROUND 2Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS
FALLING TO MVFR BY 2Z...WITH IFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS OVER CLT AROUND 12Z. IF
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP...IT IS POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF RASN COULD OCCUR
DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS BY 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...KAVL
IS EXPECTED TO SEE RASN BY 7Z...MIXING OVER TO SN BY 9Z.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OT KAVL BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. PRECIP WILL END FROM THE SW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 260201
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
901 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM...A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NW ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARD THE WET BULB. AT 1Z...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND RIDGES.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER
WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 6Z-12Z...A WIDE FIELD
OF Q-VECTOR COVERGENCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KAVL AND KTNB INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE BL
TO 20 KFT. THE DEEP FORCING COMBINED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW
GROWTH SHOULD YIELD DECENT SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL UPDATE THE WSW TO
CHANGE MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES FROM AN HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY
TO A COUNTY WIDE ADVISORY.

AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES. BASED ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING...RA SHOULD BEGIN AT CLT AROUND 2Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS
FALLING TO MVFR BY 2Z...WITH IFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS OVER CLT AROUND 12Z. IF
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP...IT IS POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF RASN COULD OCCUR
DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS BY 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...KAVL
IS EXPECTED TO SEE RASN BY 7Z...MIXING OVER TO SN BY 9Z.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OT KAVL BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. PRECIP WILL END FROM THE SW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260201
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
901 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM...A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NW ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARD THE WET BULB. AT 1Z...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AND RIDGES.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NC MTNS APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. I WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A LONGER
WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BETWEEN 6Z-12Z...A WIDE FIELD
OF Q-VECTOR COVERGENCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KAVL AND KTNB INDICATE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE BL
TO 20 KFT. THE DEEP FORCING COMBINED WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW
GROWTH SHOULD YIELD DECENT SNOWFALL RATES. I WILL UPDATE THE WSW TO
CHANGE MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES FROM AN HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY
TO A COUNTY WIDE ADVISORY.

AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES. BASED ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING...RA SHOULD BEGIN AT CLT AROUND 2Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS
FALLING TO MVFR BY 2Z...WITH IFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS OVER CLT AROUND 12Z. IF
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP...IT IS POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF RASN COULD OCCUR
DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS BY 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...KAVL
IS EXPECTED TO SEE RASN BY 7Z...MIXING OVER TO SN BY 9Z.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OT KAVL BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. PRECIP WILL END FROM THE SW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 260018
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
718 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES. BASED ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING...RA SHOULD BEGIN AT CLT AROUND 2Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS
FALLING TO MVFR BY 2Z...WITH IFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS OVER CLT AROUND 12Z. IF
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP...IT IS POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF RASN COULD OCCUR
DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS BY 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...KAVL
IS EXPECTED TO SEE RASN BY 7Z...MIXING OVER TO SN BY 9Z.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OT KAVL BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. PRECIP WILL END FROM THE SW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  96%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     MED   76%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  97%     MED   76%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 260018
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
718 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES.

I ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES...BASED ON THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL
RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUM SN WILL BE GREATER WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS SEEING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS UPDATE WILL
INCREASE THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS GIVEN TO THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR VIRGA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF CLT. THIS BAND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED
NW OF A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM INDICATES THAT H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...REACHING THE I-85
CORRIDOR BY 3Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE...RESULTING IN THE GREATEST PRECIP RATES. BASED ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING...RA SHOULD BEGIN AT CLT AROUND 2Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS
FALLING TO MVFR BY 2Z...WITH IFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS OVER CLT AROUND 12Z. IF
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP...IT IS POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF RASN COULD OCCUR
DURING THE 12-15Z WINDOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS BY 14Z.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO CLT. HOWEVER...KAVL
IS EXPECTED TO SEE RASN BY 7Z...MIXING OVER TO SN BY 9Z.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OT KAVL BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS A COLD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. PRECIP WILL END FROM THE SW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  96%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     MED   76%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  95%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  95%
KAND       HIGH  97%     MED   76%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-
     503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 251937
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE LOW LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS ABRUPTLY ENDED
AND A FEW PATCHES OF LOWER VFR/HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS ARE FLOATING
AROUND IN THE PIEDMONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE TEMPO CIGS AT BEST
THROUGH LATE DAY...WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL VFR CIGS BECOMING LOWER VFR
STRATOCUMULUS BY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN IN EARNEST THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. ALL MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE PROFILES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INDICATE ENOUGH OF A SFC
BASED WARM LAYER TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIQUID OVERNIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT FRONTOGENESIS COULD
CREATE SOME BANDED PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK THAT MIGHT PUSH SNOW
LEVELS BRIEFLY DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH KCLT. NE WINDS WILL TURN SLOWLY N THEN NW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FEW LOW END GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOLID IFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD IMPROVE A BIT TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THAT WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

ELSEWHERE...SOLID MID LEVEL CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVING FROM THE S
BY EARLY EVENING. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THAT
AS MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS DEEPEN FROM THE COASTAL LOW. EXPECT
SNOW LEVELS TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH KAVL SEEING
MAINLY SNOW BY 09Z. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS TO PUSH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TOWARD KHKY BY 09Z. THE SC
TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A DEEP ENOUGH SFC WARM LAYER TO REMAIN ALL
LIQUID. EXPECT MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION DOWN
QUICKLY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT WILL
STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MOS AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOWER END IFR ALL
BUT KHKY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
FROM THE SW AS THE PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY. EXPECT NRLY SFC WINDS
TO BECOME MORE NW WITH TIME.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH  88%     MED   78%     MED   76%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  80%     MED   76%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  84%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  80%     MED   66%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  83%     MED   73%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   75%     HIGH  84%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 251937
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST...A FEW WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ADJUSTMENTS
ARE BEING MADE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO ENCOMPASS AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCEY. THE ADVISORY TIER HAS ALSO BEEN
EXPANDED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO A BIT
FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS WED AND PHASES BACK INTO THE BROADER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z TO 15Z...WHILE
DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE TROUGH OVER WRN
NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE QPF...BUT
COASTAL CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN CAPPING TOTALS.

REGARDING PTYPES...MODEL PROFILES ALL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM
LAYER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT...ANY
HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER AND PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS...WITH
CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND JUST E OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR THIS REASON...AN ERN ESCARPMENT EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. THE NRN MTN FORECAST TEETERS
ON WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SINCE AVERY IS ALREADY IN SEE NO REASON TO
NOT ADD YANCEY/MITCHELL FOR SOME 4 PLUS INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THESE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LOW END ADVISORY
NUMBERS ARE EXPECTED A BIT FARTHER SW IN THE MTN...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THE BRIEF DURATION OF THE EVENT AND THE MARGINALLY
COLD TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNING AMOUNT/SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
PROBLEMS THERE.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRING
CHANNELED VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH PROGRESSES TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA...
GENERALLY TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 85. THICKNESS VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW AT THIS TIME...SUPPORTING MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START
WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS LACKED A WARM NOSE
ALOFT...BUT MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE A BRIEF WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS
LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOWER THE
FREEZING LEVEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...TO THE POINT WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
POINT...MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH
COLD ADVECTION TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND BRING TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA....WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE 00Z SAT...THEN A GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION...WITH ONE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND
ANOTHER ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALBEIT FAIRLY FLAT. AT THE
SFC...A MODERATING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACRS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND
FL. WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY 850 MB AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY...TO 2-3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW BULLISH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
THE 12Z/25 ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH A SFC HIGH AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. I WENT WITH THE 12Z HPCGUIDE...WHICH
WAS BASED ON ECWMF ENS...WHICH IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE OP
ECWMF...BUT DOES INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SLGT TO LOW-END CHC POPS WILL EXIST
ALONG THE TN BORDER...AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE LOW LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS ABRUPTLY ENDED
AND A FEW PATCHES OF LOWER VFR/HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS ARE FLOATING
AROUND IN THE PIEDMONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE TEMPO CIGS AT BEST
THROUGH LATE DAY...WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL VFR CIGS BECOMING LOWER VFR
STRATOCUMULUS BY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN IN EARNEST THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. ALL MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE PROFILES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INDICATE ENOUGH OF A SFC
BASED WARM LAYER TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIQUID OVERNIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT FRONTOGENESIS COULD
CREATE SOME BANDED PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK THAT MIGHT PUSH SNOW
LEVELS BRIEFLY DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH KCLT. NE WINDS WILL TURN SLOWLY N THEN NW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FEW LOW END GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOLID IFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD IMPROVE A BIT TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THAT WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

ELSEWHERE...SOLID MID LEVEL CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVING FROM THE S
BY EARLY EVENING. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THAT
AS MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS DEEPEN FROM THE COASTAL LOW. EXPECT
SNOW LEVELS TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH KAVL SEEING
MAINLY SNOW BY 09Z. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS TO PUSH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TOWARD KHKY BY 09Z. THE SC
TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A DEEP ENOUGH SFC WARM LAYER TO REMAIN ALL
LIQUID. EXPECT MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION DOWN
QUICKLY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT WILL
STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MOS AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOWER END IFR ALL
BUT KHKY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
FROM THE SW AS THE PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY. EXPECT NRLY SFC WINDS
TO BECOME MORE NW WITH TIME.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH  88%     MED   78%     MED   76%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  80%     MED   76%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  84%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  80%     MED   66%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  83%     MED   73%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   75%     HIGH  84%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ501-503-505.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ048-051>053-059-063-064.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 251759
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1259 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
500 MB TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE WILL
BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSS THE APPALACHIANS WED AND
PHASES BACK INTO THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
GULF COAST. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E
COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR
INTERIOR PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN
ADDITION...THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE 250 MB JET STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z
TO 15Z...WHILE DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE
TROUGH OVER WRN NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER
TO PRODUCE SOME SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
TOTALS THROUGH MIDDAY WED.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CRITICAL FORECAST FACTOR. PROFILES ALL
HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM LAYER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/LOWER MTN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING
MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO
SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...ANY HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM
LAYER AND PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
THE FAR NW PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE
FOOTHILLS...WITH CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG
AND JUST E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HAZARD
SUITE ARE LIKELY PENDING COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORS. EXPECT A
SLIGHT EXPANSION.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
LATE WED WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 06Z THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN IS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BURST OF OMEGA CONCURRENT WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION. THUS...WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE PRECIP
END WED AFTN...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE MTNS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER. A PERIOD OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP...MAINLY SNOWFALL...IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NW...ALLOWING
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS DURING WED AFTN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA BUT WILL DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DIURNALLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE...THE GFS
AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
AND WAA AROUND 900 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL WARM
NOSE AND COULD ALLOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
AND RATES PICK UP THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE VEERED AGAIN AND NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ALL-SNOW PROFILES WHICH PERSIST
THRU WED NIGHT. THE CONTINUING NW FLOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THU BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THU NIGHT. WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS REMAIN STEADILY
FAVORABLE THRU THURSDAY THE MOISTURE BECOMES AN ISSUE THU NIGHT WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME REBOUND WILL BE
NOTED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOW AREAS ON THU UNDER DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER WILL ALLOW
THICKNESSES TO CONTINUE DROPPING THU NIGHT...AND BRING LOWS INTO THE
20S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA FRI MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS HIGH SETS UP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. A
POTENT NRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACRS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SWLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
BY SUNDAY SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE SW MTNS. POPS SLOWLY RETURN OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE WARM SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
CLIMO BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE LOW LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS PROBABLY REACHED
IT/S EASTWARD EXTENT. WE SHOULD NOW SEE MOISTURE GRADUALLY FILLING
BACK IN FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL VFR CIGS BECOMING
LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS BY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. ALL MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE PROFILES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INDICATE ENOUGH OF A
SFC BASED WARM LAYER TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIQUID
OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT FRONTOGENESIS
COULD CREATE SOME BANDED PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK THAT MIGHT PUSH SNOW
LEVELS BRIEFLY DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH KCLT. NE WINDS WILL TURN SLOWLY N THEN NW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FEW LOW END GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOLID IFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD IMPROVE A BIT TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THAT WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

ELSEWHERE...SOLID MID LEVEL CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVING FROM THE S
BY EARLY EVENING. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THAT
AS MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS DEEPEN FROM THE COASTAL LOW. EXPECT
SNOW LEVELS TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH KAVL SEEING
MAINLY SNOW BY 09Z. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS TO PUSH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TOWARD KHKY BY 09Z. THE SC
TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A DEEP ENOUGH SFC WARM LAYER TO REMAIN ALL
LIQUID. EXPECT MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION DOWN
QUICKLY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT WILL
STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MOS AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOWER END IFR ALL
BUT KHKY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
FROM THE SW AS THE PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY. EXPECT NRLY SFC WINDS
TO BECOME MORE NW WITH TIME.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THU
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH  82%     MED   78%     MED   79%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     MED   69%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     MED   78%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   79%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ052-053-059-064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 251759
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1259 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
500 MB TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE WILL
BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
THEN ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSS THE APPALACHIANS WED AND
PHASES BACK INTO THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
GULF COAST. AT THE SFC...A LOW CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL E
COAST LATE TODAY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY UP THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SET UP INTO FAR
INTERIOR PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. IN
ADDITION...THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE 250 MB JET STREAK WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 09Z
TO 15Z...WHILE DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES WITH THE
TROUGH OVER WRN NC WED MORNING. THESE FEATURES SHOULD COME TOGETHER
TO PRODUCE SOME SOLID 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
TOTALS THROUGH MIDDAY WED.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CRITICAL FORECAST FACTOR. PROFILES ALL
HAVE SOME DEGREE OF A SFC WARM LAYER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS/LOWER MTN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THE MOST TROUBLING
MODEL TREND IS FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT APPEARS TO
SET UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH NON MTN PROFILES LOOK JUST WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...ANY HIGHER RATES COULD OVERCOME THE SFC BASED WARM
LAYER AND PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
THE FAR NW PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEEPENING 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL BE CRITICAL. SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR RA/SN SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHED WEST INTO THE
FOOTHILLS...WITH CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/SNOW TOTALS ALONG
AND JUST E OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HAZARD
SUITE ARE LIKELY PENDING COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORS. EXPECT A
SLIGHT EXPANSION.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER WAVES WED AFTN ALONG
WITH BRIEF DEEPER LAYER DRYING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SCATTERED NRN/WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WELL
INTO THE AFTN. WILL TRIM MIN AND MAX TEMPS BELOW
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SECTIONS...TONIGHT/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
LATE WED WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 06Z THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN IS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BURST OF OMEGA CONCURRENT WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION. THUS...WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE PRECIP
END WED AFTN...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE MTNS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER. A PERIOD OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP...MAINLY SNOWFALL...IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NW...ALLOWING
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS DURING WED AFTN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA BUT WILL DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DIURNALLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE...THE GFS
AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
AND WAA AROUND 900 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL WARM
NOSE AND COULD ALLOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
AND RATES PICK UP THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE VEERED AGAIN AND NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ALL-SNOW PROFILES WHICH PERSIST
THRU WED NIGHT. THE CONTINUING NW FLOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THU BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THU NIGHT. WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS REMAIN STEADILY
FAVORABLE THRU THURSDAY THE MOISTURE BECOMES AN ISSUE THU NIGHT WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME REBOUND WILL BE
NOTED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOW AREAS ON THU UNDER DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER WILL ALLOW
THICKNESSES TO CONTINUE DROPPING THU NIGHT...AND BRING LOWS INTO THE
20S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA FRI MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS HIGH SETS UP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. A
POTENT NRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACRS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SWLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
BY SUNDAY SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE SW MTNS. POPS SLOWLY RETURN OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE WARM SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
CLIMO BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE LOW LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT HAS PROBABLY REACHED
IT/S EASTWARD EXTENT. WE SHOULD NOW SEE MOISTURE GRADUALLY FILLING
BACK IN FROM THE TOP DOWN...WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL VFR CIGS BECOMING
LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS BY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE SC COAST. ALL MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE PROFILES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INDICATE ENOUGH OF A
SFC BASED WARM LAYER TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIQUID
OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT FRONTOGENESIS
COULD CREATE SOME BANDED PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK THAT MIGHT PUSH SNOW
LEVELS BRIEFLY DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH KCLT. NE WINDS WILL TURN SLOWLY N THEN NW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FEW LOW END GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOLID IFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD IMPROVE A BIT TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THAT WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

ELSEWHERE...SOLID MID LEVEL CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOWER VFR STRATOCUMULUS ARRIVING FROM THE S
BY EARLY EVENING. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THAT
AS MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS DEEPEN FROM THE COASTAL LOW. EXPECT
SNOW LEVELS TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH KAVL SEEING
MAINLY SNOW BY 09Z. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS TO PUSH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TOWARD KHKY BY 09Z. THE SC
TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE A DEEP ENOUGH SFC WARM LAYER TO REMAIN ALL
LIQUID. EXPECT MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION DOWN
QUICKLY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT WILL
STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MOS AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOWER END IFR ALL
BUT KHKY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
FROM THE SW AS THE PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY. EXPECT NRLY SFC WINDS
TO BECOME MORE NW WITH TIME.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THU
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       MED   78%     HIGH  82%     MED   78%     MED   79%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  80%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  82%     MED   69%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  86%     MED   78%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   79%     HIGH  80%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ052-053-059-064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 251457
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
957 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST...NO CHANGES TO THE HAZARDS WILL BE MADE PENDING A
FULL REVIEW OF THE 12Z MODEL DATA. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY HOWEVER THAT THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY E AND
SOUTH THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE...THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY SLIPPED JUST SE OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL DRYING. EXTENSIVE HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST AND SLOWLY START TO LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH ALONG WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL SLOW DIURNAL
HEATING. ONLY THE SW MTNS SHOULD SEE APPRECIABLE CLEARING OF THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE THEY START TO BUILD BACK W AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHARPENS UP.

THE POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM
TX/NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS BY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST IN CLASSIC MILLER A FASHION. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BAND OF STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...RESULTING IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE EVENING. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SNOW EVENT ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...AND ABOVE 4000 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS...WITH PRECIP LIKELY ENDING AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. WITH LIQUID EQUIV QPF EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.50 INCHES FROM ROUGHLY THE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES
EAST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE HEAVY SNOWFALL CRITERIA
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MTNS. THE CURRENT WARNING FOR AVERY AND
ADVISORIES FARTHER S WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PENDING A FULL REVIEW OF
12Z MODEL DATA.

OTHERWISE...AN ALL RAIN EVENT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/ FHILLS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1.0 INCH RANGE
EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
LATE WED WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 06Z THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN IS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BURST OF OMEGA CONCURRENT WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION. THUS...WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE PRECIP
END WED AFTN...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE MTNS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER. A PERIOD OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP...MAINLY SNOWFALL...IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NW...ALLOWING
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS DURING WED AFTN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA BUT WILL DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DIURNALLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE...THE GFS
AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
AND WAA AROUND 900 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL WARM
NOSE AND COULD ALLOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
AND RATES PICK UP THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE VEERED AGAIN AND NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ALL-SNOW PROFILES WHICH PERSIST
THRU WED NIGHT. THE CONTINUING NW FLOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THU BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THU NIGHT. WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS REMAIN STEADILY
FAVORABLE THRU THURSDAY THE MOISTURE BECOMES AN ISSUE THU NIGHT WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME REBOUND WILL BE
NOTED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOW AREAS ON THU UNDER DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER WILL ALLOW
THICKNESSES TO CONTINUE DROPPING THU NIGHT...AND BRING LOWS INTO THE
20S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA FRI MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS HIGH SETS UP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. A
POTENT NRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACRS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SWLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
BY SUNDAY SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE SW MTNS. POPS SLOWLY RETURN OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE WARM SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
CLIMO BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES IN THE POST FROPA AIR...AND NO
FURTHER RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN...HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST. SFC WINDS WILL TURN N/NE THROUGH THE AFTN
AND EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS...AT LEAST MVFR...POSSIBLY
LOWER...EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE..VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LGT/VRBL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS...AT LEAST MVFR...
POSSIBLY LOWER...EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE RAIN IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MTNS...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT KAVL BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL LEAVE THIS TO BE FURTHER EVALUATED BY
THE NEXT FORECASTER.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY RETURNING
TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SOUTH/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA DURING LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ052-053-059-064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH/HG
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG/JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 251457
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
957 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST...NO CHANGES TO THE HAZARDS WILL BE MADE PENDING A
FULL REVIEW OF THE 12Z MODEL DATA. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY HOWEVER THAT THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY E AND
SOUTH THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE...THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY SLIPPED JUST SE OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL DRYING. EXTENSIVE HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST AND SLOWLY START TO LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH ALONG WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL SLOW DIURNAL
HEATING. ONLY THE SW MTNS SHOULD SEE APPRECIABLE CLEARING OF THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE THEY START TO BUILD BACK W AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHARPENS UP.

THE POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM
TX/NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS BY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST IN CLASSIC MILLER A FASHION. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BAND OF STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...RESULTING IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE EVENING. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SNOW EVENT ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...AND ABOVE 4000 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS...WITH PRECIP LIKELY ENDING AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. WITH LIQUID EQUIV QPF EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.50 INCHES FROM ROUGHLY THE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES
EAST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE HEAVY SNOWFALL CRITERIA
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MTNS. THE CURRENT WARNING FOR AVERY AND
ADVISORIES FARTHER S WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PENDING A FULL REVIEW OF
12Z MODEL DATA.

OTHERWISE...AN ALL RAIN EVENT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/ FHILLS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1.0 INCH RANGE
EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
LATE WED WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 06Z THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN IS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BURST OF OMEGA CONCURRENT WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION. THUS...WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE PRECIP
END WED AFTN...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE MTNS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER. A PERIOD OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP...MAINLY SNOWFALL...IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NW...ALLOWING
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS DURING WED AFTN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA BUT WILL DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DIURNALLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE...THE GFS
AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
AND WAA AROUND 900 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL WARM
NOSE AND COULD ALLOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
AND RATES PICK UP THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE VEERED AGAIN AND NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ALL-SNOW PROFILES WHICH PERSIST
THRU WED NIGHT. THE CONTINUING NW FLOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THU BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THU NIGHT. WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS REMAIN STEADILY
FAVORABLE THRU THURSDAY THE MOISTURE BECOMES AN ISSUE THU NIGHT WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME REBOUND WILL BE
NOTED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOW AREAS ON THU UNDER DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER WILL ALLOW
THICKNESSES TO CONTINUE DROPPING THU NIGHT...AND BRING LOWS INTO THE
20S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA FRI MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS HIGH SETS UP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. A
POTENT NRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACRS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SWLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
BY SUNDAY SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE SW MTNS. POPS SLOWLY RETURN OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE WARM SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
CLIMO BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES IN THE POST FROPA AIR...AND NO
FURTHER RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN...HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST. SFC WINDS WILL TURN N/NE THROUGH THE AFTN
AND EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS...AT LEAST MVFR...POSSIBLY
LOWER...EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE..VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LGT/VRBL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS...AT LEAST MVFR...
POSSIBLY LOWER...EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE RAIN IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MTNS...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT KAVL BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL LEAVE THIS TO BE FURTHER EVALUATED BY
THE NEXT FORECASTER.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY RETURNING
TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SOUTH/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA DURING LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  91%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  91%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ052-053-059-064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH/HG
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG/JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 251155
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
655 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO OOZE OUT OF THE NC FOOTHILLS/
WESTERN UPSTATE...AND AT THIS RATE SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...WHICH ALONG WITH WEAK
COLD ADVECTION WILL SLOW DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
LATER THIS MORNING...AS THE AXIS OF A STRONG UPPER JET CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST.

COLD FRONT REMAINS IN ABSOLUTELY NO HURRY THIS MORNING...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN FACT STILL IN THE MID-60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY DOES PUSH EAST (ASSUMING IT EVER
DOES)...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB TODAY...ESP IN EASTERN AREAS
WHERE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM TEXAS/
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS BY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST IN CLASSIC MILLER-A FASHION. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BAND OF STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...RESULTING IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE EVENING. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SNOW EVENT ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...AND ABOVE 4000 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS...WITH PRECIP LIKELY ENDING AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. WITH LIQUID EQUIV QPF EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.50 INCHES FROM ROUGHLY THE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES
EAST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE HEAVY SNOWFALL CRITERIA
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MTNS. HOWEVER...WITH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE DURATION OF ANY RAIN...ESP IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WATCH OR WARNING ATTM...AND
WILL INSTEAD HOIST A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS...AS
WELL AS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF BUNCOMBE...HAYWOOD...JACKSON...AND
TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW.

OTHERWISE...AN ALL RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/
FHILLS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1.0 INCH RANGE EXPECTED
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
LATE WED WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 06Z THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN IS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BURST OF OMEGA CONCURRENT WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION. THUS...WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE PRECIP
END WED AFTN...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE MTNS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER. A PERIOD OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP...MAINLY SNOWFALL...IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NW...ALLOWING
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS DURING WED AFTN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA BUT WILL DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DIURNALLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE...THE GFS
AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
AND WAA AROUND 900 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL WARM
NOSE AND COULD ALLOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
AND RATES PICK UP THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE VEERED AGAIN AND NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ALL-SNOW PROFILES WHICH PERSIST
THRU WED NIGHT. THE CONTINUING NW FLOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THU BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THU NIGHT. WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS REMAIN STEADILY
FAVORABLE THRU THURSDAY THE MOISTURE BECOMES AN ISSUE THU NIGHT WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME REBOUND WILL BE
NOTED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOW AREAS ON THU UNDER DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER WILL ALLOW
THICKNESSES TO CONTINUE DROPPING THU NIGHT...AND BRING LOWS INTO THE
20S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA FRI MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS HIGH SETS UP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. A
POTENT NRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACRS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SWLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
BY SUNDAY SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE SW MTNS. POPS SLOWLY RETURN OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE WARM SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
CLIMO BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...BASED UPON UPSTREAM OBS...THE TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOIST BAND THAT HAS RESULTED IN LOW
MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CIGS. WILL THEREFORE BEGIN THE TAF ONLY
MENTIONING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT009 IN A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 14Z.
THE LARGER CONCERN MAY BE VISBY...WHICH HAS RECENTLY LOWERED TO MVFR
OWING TO CALM WINDS AND HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT. WHILE THE
COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS WILL INTRODUCE MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER THE PIEDMONT...IT APPEARS THIS WON/T OCCUR FOR A 2-3 MORE HOURS
AT KCLT. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A 3SM IN THE TEMPO...COUNTING ON
THE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT ANYTHING LOWER. OTHERWISE...
THE FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS AROUND TO LIGHT NW LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN TURN TOWARD THE N/NE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND
RAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS (AT
LEAST MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER) EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE..VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LGT/VRBL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH RESTRICTIONS (AT LEAST MVFR...
POSSIBLY LOWER) EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE RAIN IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MTNS...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT KAVL BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL LEAVE THIS TO BE FURTHER EVALUATED BY
THE NEXT FORECASTER.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY RETURNING
TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
DURING LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   77%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  90%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ052-053-059-064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 250937
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS IN ABSOLUTELY NO HURRY THIS MORNING...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN FACT STILL IN THE MID-60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY DOES PUSH EAST (ASSUMING IT EVER
DOES)...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB TODAY...ESP IN EASTERN AREAS
WHERE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM TEXAS/
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS BY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST IN CLASSIC MILLER-A FASHION. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BAND OF STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...RESULTING IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE EVENING. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SNOW EVENT ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...AND ABOVE 4000 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS...WITH PRECIP LIKELY ENDING AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. WITH LIQUID EQUIV QPF EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.50 INCHES FROM ROUGHLY THE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES
EAST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE HEAVY SNOWFALL CRITERIA
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MTNS. HOWEVER...WITH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE DURATION OF ANY RAIN...ESP IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WATCH OR WARNING ATTM...AND
WILL INSTEAD HOIST A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
MTNS...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AVERY COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD SEE
PRIMARILY SNOW...SUPPORTING A WINTER STORM WARNING. AN ADVISORY
WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF BUNCOMBE...
HAYWOOD...JACKSON...AND TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW.

OTHERWISE...AN ALL RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/
FHILLS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1.0 INCH RANGE EXPECTED
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
LATE WED WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 06Z THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN IS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BURST OF OMEGA CONCURRENT WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION. THUS...WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE PRECIP
END WED AFTN...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE MTNS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER. A PERIOD OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP...MAINLY SNOWFALL...IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NW...ALLOWING
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS DURING WED AFTN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA BUT WILL DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DIURNALLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE...THE GFS
AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
AND WAA AROUND 900 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL WARM
NOSE AND COULD ALLOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
AND RATES PICK UP THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE VEERED AGAIN AND NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ALL-SNOW PROFILES WHICH PERSIST
THRU WED NIGHT. THE CONTINUING NW FLOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THU BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THU NIGHT. WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS REMAIN STEADILY
FAVORABLE THRU THURSDAY THE MOISTURE BECOMES AN ISSUE THU NIGHT WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME REBOUND WILL BE
NOTED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOW AREAS ON THU UNDER DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER WILL ALLOW
THICKNESSES TO CONTINUE DROPPING THU NIGHT...AND BRING LOWS INTO THE
20S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA FRI MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS HIGH SETS UP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. A
POTENT NRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACRS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SWLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
BY SUNDAY SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE SW MTNS. POPS SLOWLY RETURN OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE WARM SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
CLIMO BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
PERSISTENCE OF LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY DAYBREAK...WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. SW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT W/NW
BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK...AND GENERALLY PERSIST IN THE 4-7
KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL THEN SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN TOWARD KCLT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KAVL...BRINGING LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND ENDING ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KAND VERY SOON...AND THROUGH
KHKY/KGMU/KGSP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PERIODIC MVFR VISBY
WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO FROPA...PARTICULARLY AT KGSP...BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN SHOULD END ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS BY 08-
09Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY BECMG
LIGHT NE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE NW BY TUE
EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS LOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING KAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM KGSP TO KCLT AND
POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ052-053-059-064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 250937
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS IN ABSOLUTELY NO HURRY THIS MORNING...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN FACT STILL IN THE MID-60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY DOES PUSH EAST (ASSUMING IT EVER
DOES)...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB TODAY...ESP IN EASTERN AREAS
WHERE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM TEXAS/
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS BY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST IN CLASSIC MILLER-A FASHION. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BAND OF STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...RESULTING IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE EVENING. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SNOW EVENT ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...AND ABOVE 4000 FEET OR SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS...WITH PRECIP LIKELY ENDING AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. WITH LIQUID EQUIV QPF EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 0.50 INCHES FROM ROUGHLY THE BLUE RIDGE COUNTIES
EAST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE HEAVY SNOWFALL CRITERIA
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MTNS. HOWEVER...WITH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE DURATION OF ANY RAIN...ESP IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WATCH OR WARNING ATTM...AND
WILL INSTEAD HOIST A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
MTNS...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AVERY COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD SEE
PRIMARILY SNOW...SUPPORTING A WINTER STORM WARNING. AN ADVISORY
WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF BUNCOMBE...
HAYWOOD...JACKSON...AND TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES FOR 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW.

OTHERWISE...AN ALL RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/
FHILLS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1.0 INCH RANGE EXPECTED
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUE...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST
LATE WED WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AROUND 06Z THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN IS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BURST OF OMEGA CONCURRENT WITH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION. THUS...WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE PRECIP
END WED AFTN...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE MTNS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER. A PERIOD OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP...MAINLY SNOWFALL...IS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THE FLOW WILL VEER TO NW...ALLOWING
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS DURING WED AFTN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA BUT WILL DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING DIURNALLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SIMULTANEOUSLY...JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE...THE GFS
AND PARTICULARLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW
AND WAA AROUND 900 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL WARM
NOSE AND COULD ALLOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
AND RATES PICK UP THE FLOW SHOULD HAVE VEERED AGAIN AND NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ALL-SNOW PROFILES WHICH PERSIST
THRU WED NIGHT. THE CONTINUING NW FLOW ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CHANGE TO
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THU BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THU NIGHT. WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS REMAIN STEADILY
FAVORABLE THRU THURSDAY THE MOISTURE BECOMES AN ISSUE THU NIGHT WHEN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME REBOUND WILL BE
NOTED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOW AREAS ON THU UNDER DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER WILL ALLOW
THICKNESSES TO CONTINUE DROPPING THU NIGHT...AND BRING LOWS INTO THE
20S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA FRI MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS HIGH SETS UP
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. A
POTENT NRN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACRS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SWLY RETURN
FLOW WILL RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
BY SUNDAY SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE SW MTNS. POPS SLOWLY RETURN OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE WARM SFC FLOW...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
CLIMO BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
PERSISTENCE OF LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY DAYBREAK...WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. SW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT W/NW
BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK...AND GENERALLY PERSIST IN THE 4-7
KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL THEN SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN TOWARD KCLT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KAVL...BRINGING LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND ENDING ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KAND VERY SOON...AND THROUGH
KHKY/KGMU/KGSP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PERIODIC MVFR VISBY
WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO FROPA...PARTICULARLY AT KGSP...BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN SHOULD END ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS BY 08-
09Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY BECMG
LIGHT NE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE NW BY TUE
EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS LOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING KAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM KGSP TO KCLT AND
POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ052-053-059-064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 250606
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
106 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1 AM...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KAHN...TO
KCEU...TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT IN NORTH CAROLINA.
CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IS PUSHING IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...AND THIS SHOULD ACT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ANY LINGERING
FOG OR STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 10 PM...LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATED WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE CLT METRO AREA. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST POPS AND INCREASE SKY COVER.

MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE COASTAL LOW. IN ADDITION...THE L/W TROF DIGS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVE TILTED BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD RESPOND TO THE PASSING
UPPER FORCING...RESULTING IN PRECIP WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE QPF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL WAS INCREASED...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE MTNS.

AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A BROKEN BAND
OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL. MODEL GUIDANCE
AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE REGION. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD SCHC TO CHC POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH MID EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 225 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO NEAR CHESTER TO SE OF
MONROE. THIS SHOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF
CROSSVILLE TN TO W OF ATLANTA THIS AFTN. THIS MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ONLY MODEST COOLING AND MINS
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
CROSSING GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CHANNELED VORT LOBE FORM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL
INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUIET...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH SETTLES JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z/24
ECMWF HAS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12/24 GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. I
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IN SOME CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
PERSISTENCE OF LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY DAYBREAK...WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. SW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT W/NW
BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK...AND GENERALLY PERSIST IN THE 4-7
KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL THEN SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN TOWARD KCLT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KAVL...BRINGING LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND ENDING ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KAND VERY SOON...AND THROUGH
KHKY/KGMU/KGSP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PERIODIC MVFR VISBY
WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO FROPA...PARTICULARLY AT KGSP...BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN SHOULD END ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS BY 08-
09Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY BECMG
LIGHT NE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE NW BY TUE
EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS LOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING KAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM KGSP TO KCLT AND
POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 250606
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
106 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1 AM...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KAHN...TO
KCEU...TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT IN NORTH CAROLINA.
CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IS PUSHING IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...AND THIS SHOULD ACT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ANY LINGERING
FOG OR STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 10 PM...LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATED WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE CLT METRO AREA. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST POPS AND INCREASE SKY COVER.

MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE COASTAL LOW. IN ADDITION...THE L/W TROF DIGS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVE TILTED BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD RESPOND TO THE PASSING
UPPER FORCING...RESULTING IN PRECIP WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE QPF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL WAS INCREASED...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE MTNS.

AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A BROKEN BAND
OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL. MODEL GUIDANCE
AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE REGION. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD SCHC TO CHC POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH MID EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 225 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO NEAR CHESTER TO SE OF
MONROE. THIS SHOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF
CROSSVILLE TN TO W OF ATLANTA THIS AFTN. THIS MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ONLY MODEST COOLING AND MINS
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
CROSSING GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CHANNELED VORT LOBE FORM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL
INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUIET...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH SETTLES JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z/24
ECMWF HAS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12/24 GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. I
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IN SOME CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
PERSISTENCE OF LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY DAYBREAK...WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. SW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT W/NW
BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK...AND GENERALLY PERSIST IN THE 4-7
KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL THEN SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN TOWARD KCLT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KAVL...BRINGING LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND ENDING ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KAND VERY SOON...AND THROUGH
KHKY/KGMU/KGSP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PERIODIC MVFR VISBY
WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO FROPA...PARTICULARLY AT KGSP...BUT DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN SHOULD END ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS BY 08-
09Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY BECMG
LIGHT NE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE NW BY TUE
EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS LOW WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND RAIN TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING KAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM KGSP TO KCLT AND
POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 250330
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM...LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATED WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE CLT METRO AREA. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST POPS AND INCREASE SKY COVER.

MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE COASTAL LOW. IN ADDITION...THE L/W TROF DIGS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVE TILTED BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD RESPOND TO THE PASSING
UPPER FORCING...RESULTING IN PRECIP WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE QPF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL WAS INCREASED...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE MTNS.

AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A BROKEN BAND
OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL. MODEL GUIDANCE
AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE REGION. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD SCHC TO CHC POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH MID EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 225 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO NEAR CHESTER TO SE OF
MONROE. THIS SHOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF
CROSSVILLE TN TO W OF ATLANTA THIS AFTN. THIS MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ONLY MODEST COOLING AND MINS
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
CROSSING GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CHANNELED VORT LOBE FORM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL
INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW ADVISRY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUIET...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH SETTLES JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z/24
ECMWF HAS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12/24 GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. I
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IN SOME CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A
BROKEN BAND OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
THE NAM...TO A LESSER AMOUNT THE GFS...SHOWS A FIELD OF MVFR
CEILINGS PUSH ACROSS THE CLT AREA LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...I WILL
FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FRO 9Z-11Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...FROPA
AROUND 9Z. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NW
BETWEEN 5-10KTS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
VEER WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH ALL TERMINALS
OBSERVING NW WINDS BEFORE SUNRISE. KAVL WILL LIKELY SEE MARGINAL
GUSTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 250330
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM...LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATED WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH
SHOWERS BRUSHING THE CLT METRO AREA. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST POPS AND INCREASE SKY COVER.

MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE COASTAL LOW. IN ADDITION...THE L/W TROF DIGS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVE TILTED BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD RESPOND TO THE PASSING
UPPER FORCING...RESULTING IN PRECIP WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE QPF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL WAS INCREASED...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE MTNS.

AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A BROKEN BAND
OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL. MODEL GUIDANCE
AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE REGION. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD SCHC TO CHC POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH MID EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 225 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO NEAR CHESTER TO SE OF
MONROE. THIS SHOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF
CROSSVILLE TN TO W OF ATLANTA THIS AFTN. THIS MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ONLY MODEST COOLING AND MINS
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
CROSSING GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CHANNELED VORT LOBE FORM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL
INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW ADVISRY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUIET...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH SETTLES JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z/24
ECMWF HAS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12/24 GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. I
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IN SOME CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A
BROKEN BAND OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
THE NAM...TO A LESSER AMOUNT THE GFS...SHOWS A FIELD OF MVFR
CEILINGS PUSH ACROSS THE CLT AREA LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...I WILL
FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FRO 9Z-11Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...FROPA
AROUND 9Z. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NW
BETWEEN 5-10KTS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
VEER WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH ALL TERMINALS
OBSERVING NW WINDS BEFORE SUNRISE. KAVL WILL LIKELY SEE MARGINAL
GUSTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 242336
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A BROKEN BAND
OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL. MODEL GUIDANCE
AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE REGION. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD SCHC TO CHC POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH MID EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 225 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO NEAR CHESTER TO SE OF
MONROE. THIS SHOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF
CROSSVILLE TN TO W OF ATLANTA THIS AFTN. THIS MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ONLY MODEST COOLING AND MINS
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
CROSSING GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CHANNELED VORT LOBE FORM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL
INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW ADVISRY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUIET...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH SETTLES JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z/24
ECMWF HAS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12/24 GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. I
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IN SOME CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A
BROKEN BAND OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
THE NAM...TO A LESSER AMOUNT THE GFS...SHOWS A FIELD OF MVFR
CEILINGS PUSH ACROSS THE CLT AREA LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...I WILL
FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FRO 9Z-11Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...FROPA
AROUND 9Z. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NW
BETWEEN 5-10KTS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
VEER WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH ALL TERMINALS
OBSERVING NW WINDS BEFORE SUNRISE. KAVL WILL LIKELY SEE MARGINAL
GUSTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 242336
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A BROKEN BAND
OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL. MODEL GUIDANCE
AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE REGION. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD SCHC TO CHC POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH MID EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 225 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO NEAR CHESTER TO SE OF
MONROE. THIS SHOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF
CROSSVILLE TN TO W OF ATLANTA THIS AFTN. THIS MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ONLY MODEST COOLING AND MINS
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
CROSSING GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CHANNELED VORT LOBE FORM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL
INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW ADVISRY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUIET...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH SETTLES JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z/24
ECMWF HAS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12/24 GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. I
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IN SOME CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 630 PM...LATEST IMAGES FROM KGSP AND TCLT INDICATED A
BROKEN BAND OF QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS EAST OF THE CLT TERMINAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
THE NAM...TO A LESSER AMOUNT THE GFS...SHOWS A FIELD OF MVFR
CEILINGS PUSH ACROSS THE CLT AREA LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...I WILL
FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FRO 9Z-11Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...FROPA
AROUND 9Z. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NW
BETWEEN 5-10KTS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
VEER WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH ALL TERMINALS
OBSERVING NW WINDS BEFORE SUNRISE. KAVL WILL LIKELY SEE MARGINAL
GUSTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NE.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241934
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO NEAR CHESTER TO SE OF
MONROE. THIS SHOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF
CROSSVILLE TN TO W OF ATLANTA THIS AFTN. THIS MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ONLY MODEST COOLING AND MINS
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
CROSSING GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CHANNELED VORT LOBE FORM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL
INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW ADVISRY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUIET...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH SETTLES JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z/24
ECMWF HAS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12/24 GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. I
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IN SOME CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS COULD STREAM BY TO THE SE IN THE
DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT NONE
OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE KCLT AIRFIELD. THE MVFR CIGS HAVE
ALREADY LIFTED/SCATTERED TO VFR AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.
EXPECT SWLY GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S TO CONTINUE WITH MIXING THROUGH
LATE AFTN...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
SHIFTING TO THE WNW WITH FROPA BY 08Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST.

ELSEWHERE...NO FURTHER LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS
EARLY DAY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS SCATTERED OUT IN ROBUST SWLY
MIXING AND ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. GUSTS TO 20 KT OR BETTER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WINDS
SHIFT WESTERLY WITH FROPA...BECOMING NW AT KAVL BY EVENING AND THEN
STEADILY W TO NW AT THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241934
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO NEAR CHESTER TO SE OF
MONROE. THIS SHOULD BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF
CROSSVILLE TN TO W OF ATLANTA THIS AFTN. THIS MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ONLY MODEST COOLING AND MINS
AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST MONDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
CROSSING GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
CHANNELED VORT LOBE FORM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL
INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT
WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL
PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW ADVISRY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS QUIET...AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...UNDER
FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH SETTLES JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULT IS DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE 00Z/24
ECMWF HAS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY...WHILE THE 12/24 GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. I
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IN SOME CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHC FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS COULD STREAM BY TO THE SE IN THE
DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT NONE
OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE KCLT AIRFIELD. THE MVFR CIGS HAVE
ALREADY LIFTED/SCATTERED TO VFR AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.
EXPECT SWLY GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S TO CONTINUE WITH MIXING THROUGH
LATE AFTN...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
SHIFTING TO THE WNW WITH FROPA BY 08Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST.

ELSEWHERE...NO FURTHER LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS
EARLY DAY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS SCATTERED OUT IN ROBUST SWLY
MIXING AND ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. GUSTS TO 20 KT OR BETTER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WINDS
SHIFT WESTERLY WITH FROPA...BECOMING NW AT KAVL BY EVENING AND THEN
STEADILY W TO NW AT THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241756
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1256 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO SE OF MONROE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILTY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 100 TO 200 J/KG OR LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH
LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR CROSSVILLE TN TO NW GA EARLY THIS AFTN.
THE MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA MOST
OF TUESDAY WHILE AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN US. CAA
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH COLD FRONT ORIENTED ALONG THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AND SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGER TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE FRONT AND
START TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING AND IT IS
THIS LOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AS IT RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES OF PERHAPS 50-100 MILES IN THE LOW TRACK BETWEEN THE
GFS/NAM/CMC/EC...THE 00Z CYCLE OF GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THOUGH THE NAM REMAINS A SLIGHT OUTLIER IN TAKING THE
LOW MORE OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEPENING IT AS QUICKLY. THERE IS
CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF PEAK POPS...A LITTLE BEFORE DAYBREAK WED
IN THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT ZONES...AND LATE MRNG IN THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE INCREASING CONSENSUS.

PRE-EXISTING COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE LOW PASSES
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA PARTIAL THICKNESSES
WILL ALREADY BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PTYPES EARLY WED MRNG...BUT WILL
PLUNGE FURTHER BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS AWAY. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WILL RESULT WITH NO ELEVATED WARM LAYERS SEEN ON
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. SFC T OR TW VALUES ONLY FAVOR
SNOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF QPF GUIDANCE
BUT THE BLENDED VALUES ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
LIQUID VALUES DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE...WELL UNDER AN INCH EVEN IN OUR
SERN/ERN ZONES NEAREST THE LOW. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MTNS LOOK TO BE
ADVISORY-LEVEL ATTM. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IS ONLY QUESTIONABLE EARLY
IN THE EVENT LEAVING LIQUID QPF AS THE MAIN FACTOR IN SNOWFALL.
PROVIDED THAT THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE COASTAL TRACK I HAVE PRETTY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THESE TOTALS.

BY WED NIGHT AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL REACH
THE MTNS AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH EXITS THE OHIO
VALLEY. LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO NWLY ACRS THE AREA BY THU MRNG AND
PROG SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT NEAR THE TENN
BORDER. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES THRU THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
FINALLY DIMINISHES THU NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACRS THE AREA THU
AFTN WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND THIS KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
FLOW FLATTENS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY IT APPEARS RETURN FLOW DOES NOT BRING BACK MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. INSTEAD...BOTH THE 24/00Z GFS AND
EC BRING THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING A
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
ALBEIT MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STREAM BY TO
THE SE IN THE DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT NONE OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE KCLT AIRFIELD.
THE MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO LIFT/SCATTER AND ONLY A TEMPO
FOR MVFR WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH 20Z. EXPECT SW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER
20S TO CONTINUE WITH MIXING THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH WINDS
DECOUPLING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE WNW WITH
FROPA BY 08Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP OVERHEAD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE
WEST.

ELSEWHERE...NO FURTHER LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS
EARLY DAY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS SCATTERED OUT AND ONLY LIMITED
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 20 KT OR
BETTER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY WITH
FROPA...BECOMING NW AT KAVL BY EVENING AND THEN STEADILY W TO NW AT
THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP
OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241756
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1256 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING
THE LOWER PIEDMONT FROM SE OF GREENWOOD TO SE OF MONROE. THIS SHOULD
BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AFTN...AND ANY SFC BASED INSTABILTY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 100 TO 200 J/KG OR LESS IN THE PIEDMONT THROUGH
LATE DAY GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR CROSSVILLE TN TO NW GA EARLY THIS AFTN.
THE MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY SETTLE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADDITIONAL H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD ACROSS OUR REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FL/GA
COAST TO THE SE. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE SFC TO 850 MB WINDS REMAIN A WESTERLY TO NW
DOWNSLOPE. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SHADE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA MOST
OF TUESDAY WHILE AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN US. CAA
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH COLD FRONT ORIENTED ALONG THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AND SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGER TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE FRONT AND
START TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING AND IT IS
THIS LOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AS IT RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES OF PERHAPS 50-100 MILES IN THE LOW TRACK BETWEEN THE
GFS/NAM/CMC/EC...THE 00Z CYCLE OF GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THOUGH THE NAM REMAINS A SLIGHT OUTLIER IN TAKING THE
LOW MORE OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEPENING IT AS QUICKLY. THERE IS
CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF PEAK POPS...A LITTLE BEFORE DAYBREAK WED
IN THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT ZONES...AND LATE MRNG IN THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE INCREASING CONSENSUS.

PRE-EXISTING COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE LOW PASSES
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA PARTIAL THICKNESSES
WILL ALREADY BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PTYPES EARLY WED MRNG...BUT WILL
PLUNGE FURTHER BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS AWAY. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WILL RESULT WITH NO ELEVATED WARM LAYERS SEEN ON
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. SFC T OR TW VALUES ONLY FAVOR
SNOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF QPF GUIDANCE
BUT THE BLENDED VALUES ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
LIQUID VALUES DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE...WELL UNDER AN INCH EVEN IN OUR
SERN/ERN ZONES NEAREST THE LOW. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MTNS LOOK TO BE
ADVISORY-LEVEL ATTM. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IS ONLY QUESTIONABLE EARLY
IN THE EVENT LEAVING LIQUID QPF AS THE MAIN FACTOR IN SNOWFALL.
PROVIDED THAT THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE COASTAL TRACK I HAVE PRETTY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THESE TOTALS.

BY WED NIGHT AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL REACH
THE MTNS AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH EXITS THE OHIO
VALLEY. LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO NWLY ACRS THE AREA BY THU MRNG AND
PROG SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT NEAR THE TENN
BORDER. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES THRU THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
FINALLY DIMINISHES THU NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACRS THE AREA THU
AFTN WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND THIS KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
FLOW FLATTENS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY IT APPEARS RETURN FLOW DOES NOT BRING BACK MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. INSTEAD...BOTH THE 24/00Z GFS AND
EC BRING THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING A
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
ALBEIT MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STREAM BY TO
THE SE IN THE DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT NONE OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE KCLT AIRFIELD.
THE MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO LIFT/SCATTER AND ONLY A TEMPO
FOR MVFR WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH 20Z. EXPECT SW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER
20S TO CONTINUE WITH MIXING THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH WINDS
DECOUPLING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE WNW WITH
FROPA BY 08Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP OVERHEAD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE
WEST.

ELSEWHERE...NO FURTHER LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS
EARLY DAY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS SCATTERED OUT AND ONLY LIMITED
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 20 KT OR
BETTER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY WITH
FROPA...BECOMING NW AT KAVL BY EVENING AND THEN STEADILY W TO NW AT
THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP
OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS UP TO THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE FEATURES MAY RETURN IN THE FORM
OF A WINTRY MIX FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FROM
KGSP TO KCLT AND POINTS SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241440
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
940 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF
NASHVILLE TN. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY SCATTERED NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE SECTIONS OF WRN NC...BUT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO LIFT AND
SCATTER IN THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FARTHER S/E. WILL TRIM
MAX TEMPS A DEGREE IN THESE CLOUDIER SE SECTIONS THIS AFTN...BUT
STILL FEATURE PLENTY OF 70S. VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE
ENCROACHING ON THE EXTREME SE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...BUT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND
FORCING/MOISTURE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL LOOK QUITE
WEAK. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY FAIRLY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS. AN ISOLD AFTN SHOWER MENTION SHOULD SUFFICE IN THE
LOWER PIEDMONT AND WRN MTNS THROUGH LATE DAY.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
EASTERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING. ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT
PERHAPS WITHIN THE SHALLOW MOIST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN CLIMO...AS COLD ADVECTION TAKES ITS TIME TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA MOST
OF TUESDAY WHILE AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN US. CAA
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH COLD FRONT ORIENTED ALONG THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AND SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGER TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE FRONT AND
START TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING AND IT IS
THIS LOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AS IT RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES OF PERHAPS 50-100 MILES IN THE LOW TRACK BETWEEN THE
GFS/NAM/CMC/EC...THE 00Z CYCLE OF GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THOUGH THE NAM REMAINS A SLIGHT OUTLIER IN TAKING THE
LOW MORE OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEPENING IT AS QUICKLY. THERE IS
CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF PEAK POPS...A LITTLE BEFORE DAYBREAK WED
IN THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT ZONES...AND LATE MRNG IN THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE INCREASING CONSENSUS.

PRE-EXISTING COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE LOW PASSES
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA PARTIAL THICKNESSES
WILL ALREADY BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PTYPES EARLY WED MRNG...BUT WILL
PLUNGE FURTHER BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS AWAY. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WILL RESULT WITH NO ELEVATED WARM LAYERS SEEN ON
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. SFC T OR TW VALUES ONLY FAVOR
SNOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF QPF GUIDANCE
BUT THE BLENDED VALUES ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
LIQUID VALUES DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE...WELL UNDER AN INCH EVEN IN OUR
SERN/ERN ZONES NEAREST THE LOW. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MTNS LOOK TO BE
ADVISORY-LEVEL ATTM. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IS ONLY QUESTIONABLE EARLY
IN THE EVENT LEAVING LIQUID QPF AS THE MAIN FACTOR IN SNOWFALL.
PROVIDED THAT THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE COASTAL TRACK I HAVE PRETTY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THESE TOTALS.

BY WED NIGHT AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL REACH
THE MTNS AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH EXITS THE OHIO
VALLEY. LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO NWLY ACRS THE AREA BY THU MRNG AND
PROG SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT NEAR THE TENN
BORDER. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES THRU THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
FINALLY DIMINISHES THU NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACRS THE AREA THU
AFTN WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND THIS KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
FLOW FLATTENS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY IT APPEARS RETURN FLOW DOES NOT BRING BACK MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. INSTEAD...BOTH THE 24/00Z GFS AND
EC BRING THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING A
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
ALBEIT MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT TOWARD THE AIRFIELD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE IS MAINLY
AT MVFR LEVELS IN THE MODEL PROFILES...AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CIG HEIGHT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE AIRFIELD FINALLY SEES SCT TO BKN
VFR LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD EVENING AND THEN OVERNIGHT. MIXING ON SW
FLOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF.

AT KAVL AND KHKY...EARLY MORNING MOISTURE HAS SCATTERED OUT...BUT
SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/LOWER VFR LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY
WITH HEATING TODAY. EXPECT SWLY GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH MIXING
THROUGH THE DAY...THEN WINDS TURNING W TO NW TONIGHT WITH FROPA.
KAVL COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHRA LATE DAY...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBY AT TIMES AT KAND.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH MIXING THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH
MVFR CIGS FINALLY SCATTERING TO VFR THIS AFTN. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KT ON THE SW FLOW WITH MIXING THROUGH LATE DAY. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CHANCES ARE MUCH TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING. FROPA TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE SFC WINDS TOWARD WESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH A WINTRY MIX
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS OR NEAR KHKY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NRN TIER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. MORE
SETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG/JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 241440
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
940 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF
NASHVILLE TN. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY SCATTERED NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE SECTIONS OF WRN NC...BUT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO LIFT AND
SCATTER IN THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FARTHER S/E. WILL TRIM
MAX TEMPS A DEGREE IN THESE CLOUDIER SE SECTIONS THIS AFTN...BUT
STILL FEATURE PLENTY OF 70S. VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE
ENCROACHING ON THE EXTREME SE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...BUT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND
FORCING/MOISTURE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL LOOK QUITE
WEAK. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY FAIRLY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS. AN ISOLD AFTN SHOWER MENTION SHOULD SUFFICE IN THE
LOWER PIEDMONT AND WRN MTNS THROUGH LATE DAY.

OTHERWISE...UPPER HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
EASTERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING. ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT
PERHAPS WITHIN THE SHALLOW MOIST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN CLIMO...AS COLD ADVECTION TAKES ITS TIME TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA MOST
OF TUESDAY WHILE AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN US. CAA
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH COLD FRONT ORIENTED ALONG THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AND SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGER TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE FRONT AND
START TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING AND IT IS
THIS LOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AS IT RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES OF PERHAPS 50-100 MILES IN THE LOW TRACK BETWEEN THE
GFS/NAM/CMC/EC...THE 00Z CYCLE OF GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THOUGH THE NAM REMAINS A SLIGHT OUTLIER IN TAKING THE
LOW MORE OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEPENING IT AS QUICKLY. THERE IS
CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF PEAK POPS...A LITTLE BEFORE DAYBREAK WED
IN THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT ZONES...AND LATE MRNG IN THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE INCREASING CONSENSUS.

PRE-EXISTING COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE LOW PASSES
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA PARTIAL THICKNESSES
WILL ALREADY BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PTYPES EARLY WED MRNG...BUT WILL
PLUNGE FURTHER BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS AWAY. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WILL RESULT WITH NO ELEVATED WARM LAYERS SEEN ON
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. SFC T OR TW VALUES ONLY FAVOR
SNOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF QPF GUIDANCE
BUT THE BLENDED VALUES ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
LIQUID VALUES DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE...WELL UNDER AN INCH EVEN IN OUR
SERN/ERN ZONES NEAREST THE LOW. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MTNS LOOK TO BE
ADVISORY-LEVEL ATTM. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IS ONLY QUESTIONABLE EARLY
IN THE EVENT LEAVING LIQUID QPF AS THE MAIN FACTOR IN SNOWFALL.
PROVIDED THAT THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE COASTAL TRACK I HAVE PRETTY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THESE TOTALS.

BY WED NIGHT AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL REACH
THE MTNS AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH EXITS THE OHIO
VALLEY. LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO NWLY ACRS THE AREA BY THU MRNG AND
PROG SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT NEAR THE TENN
BORDER. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES THRU THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
FINALLY DIMINISHES THU NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACRS THE AREA THU
AFTN WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND THIS KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
FLOW FLATTENS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY IT APPEARS RETURN FLOW DOES NOT BRING BACK MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. INSTEAD...BOTH THE 24/00Z GFS AND
EC BRING THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING A
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
ALBEIT MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT TOWARD THE AIRFIELD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE IS MAINLY
AT MVFR LEVELS IN THE MODEL PROFILES...AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CIG HEIGHT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE AIRFIELD FINALLY SEES SCT TO BKN
VFR LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD EVENING AND THEN OVERNIGHT. MIXING ON SW
FLOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF.

AT KAVL AND KHKY...EARLY MORNING MOISTURE HAS SCATTERED OUT...BUT
SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/LOWER VFR LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY
WITH HEATING TODAY. EXPECT SWLY GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH MIXING
THROUGH THE DAY...THEN WINDS TURNING W TO NW TONIGHT WITH FROPA.
KAVL COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHRA LATE DAY...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBY AT TIMES AT KAND.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH MIXING THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH
MVFR CIGS FINALLY SCATTERING TO VFR THIS AFTN. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KT ON THE SW FLOW WITH MIXING THROUGH LATE DAY. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CHANCES ARE MUCH TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING. FROPA TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE SFC WINDS TOWARD WESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH A WINTRY MIX
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS OR NEAR KHKY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NRN TIER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. MORE
SETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG/WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG/JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241147
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM...SKIES ARE CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH CLEAR AREAS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOWER
PIEDMONT AND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE NC MTNS. CLOUDS MAY FILL
IN A BIT AFTER SUNRISE...SLOWING DIURNAL HEATING...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
BELOW 20 PERCENT UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

A REGION OF UPPER HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A HEALTHY AXIS OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE SOUTHEAST OF INTENSIFYING
UPPER JET...SOME OF THE SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
RESPOND WITH SOME QPF WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT PRIMARILY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...FEEL IT/S
WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER WILL BE OMITTED IN LIGHT OF THE VERY WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPS.

SMALL POPS WILL ALSO BE CARRIED ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...
EVEN IF A FEW SHOWERS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THEM TO BE
MAINTAINED EAST OF THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO TODAY IN THE DEEP SW FLOW/PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE
REGIME.

ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
(EXCEPT PERHAPS WITHIN SHALLOW MOIST NW FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
MTNS)...WITH MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
CLIMO...AS COLD ADVECTION TAKES ITS TIME TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA MOST
OF TUESDAY WHILE AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN US. CAA
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH COLD FRONT ORIENTED ALONG THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AND SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGER TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE FRONT AND
START TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING AND IT IS
THIS LOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AS IT RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES OF PERHAPS 50-100 MILES IN THE LOW TRACK BETWEEN THE
GFS/NAM/CMC/EC...THE 00Z CYCLE OF GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THOUGH THE NAM REMAINS A SLIGHT OUTLIER IN TAKING THE
LOW MORE OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEPENING IT AS QUICKLY. THERE IS
CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF PEAK POPS...A LITTLE BEFORE DAYBREAK WED
IN THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT ZONES...AND LATE MRNG IN THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE INCREASING CONSENSUS.

PRE-EXISTING COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE LOW PASSES
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA PARTIAL THICKNESSES
WILL ALREADY BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PTYPES EARLY WED MRNG...BUT WILL
PLUNGE FURTHER BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS AWAY. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WILL RESULT WITH NO ELEVATED WARM LAYERS SEEN ON
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. SFC T OR TW VALUES ONLY FAVOR
SNOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF QPF GUIDANCE
BUT THE BLENDED VALUES ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
LIQUID VALUES DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE...WELL UNDER AN INCH EVEN IN OUR
SERN/ERN ZONES NEAREST THE LOW. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MTNS LOOK TO BE
ADVISORY-LEVEL ATTM. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IS ONLY QUESTIONABLE EARLY
IN THE EVENT LEAVING LIQUID QPF AS THE MAIN FACTOR IN SNOWFALL.
PROVIDED THAT THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE COASTAL TRACK I HAVE PRETTY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THESE TOTALS.

BY WED NIGHT AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL REACH
THE MTNS AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH EXITS THE OHIO
VALLEY. LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO NWLY ACRS THE AREA BY THU MRNG AND
PROG SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT NEAR THE TENN
BORDER. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES THRU THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
FINALLY DIMINISHES THU NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACRS THE AREA THU
AFTN WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND THIS KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
FLOW FLATTENS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY IT APPEARS RETURN FLOW DOES NOT BRING BACK MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. INSTEAD...BOTH THE 24/00Z GFS AND
EC BRING THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING A
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
ALBEIT MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT NC TAF SITES INCLUDING KCLT...EXPECT VFR/PERIODIC MVFR CIGS TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING...WARRANTING A TEMPO FOR LOW
MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. OTHERWISE...GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S LIKELY...ESP
AT KCLT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST ATTM.

AT THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS...AN AREA OF IFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED
RECENTLY...AND WILL CARRY TEMPOS FOR BKN008-009 THROUGH 15Z.
OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS IN THE
20S LIKELY...ESP AT KCLT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS PROBABILITY APPEARS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE...WITH
RAIN (PIEDMONT) AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP (MOUNTAINS) POSSIBLY RETURNING
WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 241147
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM...SKIES ARE CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH CLEAR AREAS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOWER
PIEDMONT AND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE NC MTNS. CLOUDS MAY FILL
IN A BIT AFTER SUNRISE...SLOWING DIURNAL HEATING...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
BELOW 20 PERCENT UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

A REGION OF UPPER HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A HEALTHY AXIS OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE SOUTHEAST OF INTENSIFYING
UPPER JET...SOME OF THE SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
RESPOND WITH SOME QPF WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT PRIMARILY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...FEEL IT/S
WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER WILL BE OMITTED IN LIGHT OF THE VERY WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPS.

SMALL POPS WILL ALSO BE CARRIED ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...
EVEN IF A FEW SHOWERS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THEM TO BE
MAINTAINED EAST OF THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO TODAY IN THE DEEP SW FLOW/PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE
REGIME.

ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
(EXCEPT PERHAPS WITHIN SHALLOW MOIST NW FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
MTNS)...WITH MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
CLIMO...AS COLD ADVECTION TAKES ITS TIME TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA MOST
OF TUESDAY WHILE AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN US. CAA
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH COLD FRONT ORIENTED ALONG THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AND SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGER TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE FRONT AND
START TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING AND IT IS
THIS LOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AS IT RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES OF PERHAPS 50-100 MILES IN THE LOW TRACK BETWEEN THE
GFS/NAM/CMC/EC...THE 00Z CYCLE OF GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THOUGH THE NAM REMAINS A SLIGHT OUTLIER IN TAKING THE
LOW MORE OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEPENING IT AS QUICKLY. THERE IS
CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF PEAK POPS...A LITTLE BEFORE DAYBREAK WED
IN THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT ZONES...AND LATE MRNG IN THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE INCREASING CONSENSUS.

PRE-EXISTING COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE LOW PASSES
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA PARTIAL THICKNESSES
WILL ALREADY BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PTYPES EARLY WED MRNG...BUT WILL
PLUNGE FURTHER BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS AWAY. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WILL RESULT WITH NO ELEVATED WARM LAYERS SEEN ON
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. SFC T OR TW VALUES ONLY FAVOR
SNOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF QPF GUIDANCE
BUT THE BLENDED VALUES ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
LIQUID VALUES DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE...WELL UNDER AN INCH EVEN IN OUR
SERN/ERN ZONES NEAREST THE LOW. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MTNS LOOK TO BE
ADVISORY-LEVEL ATTM. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IS ONLY QUESTIONABLE EARLY
IN THE EVENT LEAVING LIQUID QPF AS THE MAIN FACTOR IN SNOWFALL.
PROVIDED THAT THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE COASTAL TRACK I HAVE PRETTY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THESE TOTALS.

BY WED NIGHT AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL REACH
THE MTNS AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH EXITS THE OHIO
VALLEY. LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO NWLY ACRS THE AREA BY THU MRNG AND
PROG SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT NEAR THE TENN
BORDER. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES THRU THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
FINALLY DIMINISHES THU NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACRS THE AREA THU
AFTN WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND THIS KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
FLOW FLATTENS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY IT APPEARS RETURN FLOW DOES NOT BRING BACK MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. INSTEAD...BOTH THE 24/00Z GFS AND
EC BRING THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING A
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
ALBEIT MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT NC TAF SITES INCLUDING KCLT...EXPECT VFR/PERIODIC MVFR CIGS TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING...WARRANTING A TEMPO FOR LOW
MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. OTHERWISE...GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S LIKELY...ESP
AT KCLT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST ATTM.

AT THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS...AN AREA OF IFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED
RECENTLY...AND WILL CARRY TEMPOS FOR BKN008-009 THROUGH 15Z.
OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS IN THE
20S LIKELY...ESP AT KCLT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS PROBABILITY APPEARS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE...WITH
RAIN (PIEDMONT) AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP (MOUNTAINS) POSSIBLY RETURNING
WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  80%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 240856
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
356 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A REGION OF UPPER HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A HEALTHY AXIS OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE SOUTHEAST OF INTENSIFYING
UPPER JET...SOME OF THE SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
RESPOND WITH SOME QPF WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT PRIMARILY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...FEEL IT/S
WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER WILL BE OMITTED IN LIGHT OF THE VERY WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPS.

SMALL POPS WILL ALSO BE CARRIED ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...
EVEN IF A FEW SHOWERS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THEM TO BE
MAINTAINED EAST OF THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO TODAY IN THE DEEP SW FLOW/PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE
REGIME.

ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
(EXCEPT PERHAPS WITHIN SHALLOW MOIST NW FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
MTNS)...WITH MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
CLIMO...AS COLD ADVECTION TAKES ITS TIME TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA MOST
OF TUESDAY WHILE AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN US. CAA
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH COLD FRONT ORIENTED ALONG THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AND SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGER TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE FRONT AND
START TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING AND IT IS
THIS LOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AS IT RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES OF PERHAPS 50-100 MILES IN THE LOW TRACK BETWEEN THE
GFS/NAM/CMC/EC...THE 00Z CYCLE OF GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THOUGH THE NAM REMAINS A SLIGHT OUTLIER IN TAKING THE
LOW MORE OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEPENING IT AS QUICKLY. THERE IS
CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF PEAK POPS...A LITTLE BEFORE DAYBREAK WED
IN THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT ZONES...AND LATE MRNG IN THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE INCREASING CONSENSUS.

PRE-EXISTING COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE LOW PASSES
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA PARTIAL THICKNESSES
WILL ALREADY BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PTYPES EARLY WED MRNG...BUT WILL
PLUNGE FURTHER BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS AWAY. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WILL RESULT WITH NO ELEVATED WARM LAYERS SEEN ON
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. SFC T OR TW VALUES ONLY FAVOR
SNOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF QPF GUIDANCE
BUT THE BLENDED VALUES ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
LIQUID VALUES DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE...WELL UNDER AN INCH EVEN IN OUR
SERN/ERN ZONES NEAREST THE LOW. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MTNS LOOK TO BE
ADVISORY-LEVEL ATTM. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IS ONLY QUESTIONABLE EARLY
IN THE EVENT LEAVING LIQUID QPF AS THE MAIN FACTOR IN SNOWFALL.
PROVIDED THAT THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE COASTAL TRACK I HAVE PRETTY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THESE TOTALS.

BY WED NIGHT AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL REACH
THE MTNS AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH EXITS THE OHIO
VALLEY. LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO NWLY ACRS THE AREA BY THU MRNG AND
PROG SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT NEAR THE TENN
BORDER. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES THRU THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
FINALLY DIMINISHES THU NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACRS THE AREA THU
AFTN WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND THIS KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
FLOW FLATTENS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY IT APPEARS RETURN FLOW DOES NOT BRING BACK MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. INSTEAD...BOTH THE 24/00Z GFS AND
EC BRING THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING A
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
ALBEIT MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A VERY COMPLEX/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS...AS GUIDANCE HAS DONE AN EXTREMELY POOR JOB IN
HANDLING THE ONGOING EROSION OF COLD AIR DAMMING AIR MASS...AND
ASSOCIATED SCATTERING OF SUB-MVFR CIGS (AT LEAST IN MOST AREAS). A
SMATTERING OF IFR DOES PERSIST NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT EVEN THIS AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SMALL. WARM
FRONT HAS BASICALLY LIFTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...ALLOWING VERY
STOUT S/SW WINDS TO DEVELOP...AND THESE SHOULDN/T BE RELAXING
ANYTIME SOON...AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RESPECTABLE IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THAT IN MIND...FOG SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...AND THE VISBY FORECAST HAS BEEN
IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ACT TO KEEP CIGS FROM CRASHING TO LIFR
(OR LOWER) AS WAS EARLIER PREDICTED. HOWEVER...THE CIG FORECAST IS
THE MOST UNCERTAIN COMPONENT OF THE FORECAST...AND IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY IF CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR OR RETURN TO IFR LATER THIS MORNING.
CONSIDERING THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL LIFT...IT IS
APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NEARER THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE LIFT WILL
OCCUR. THEREFORE...TEMPOS FOR IFR HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...THE EXCEPTION BEING KCLT...WHICH WILL
NOT SEE ANY EFFECTS FROM THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST ATTM.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE...WITH
RAIN (PIEDMONT) AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP (MOUNTAINS) POSSIBLY RETURNING
WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   67%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 240856
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
356 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A REGION OF UPPER HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A HEALTHY AXIS OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE SOUTHEAST OF INTENSIFYING
UPPER JET...SOME OF THE SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
RESPOND WITH SOME QPF WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT PRIMARILY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...FEEL IT/S
WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER WILL BE OMITTED IN LIGHT OF THE VERY WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPS.

SMALL POPS WILL ALSO BE CARRIED ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...
EVEN IF A FEW SHOWERS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THEM TO BE
MAINTAINED EAST OF THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO TODAY IN THE DEEP SW FLOW/PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE
REGIME.

ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
(EXCEPT PERHAPS WITHIN SHALLOW MOIST NW FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
MTNS)...WITH MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
CLIMO...AS COLD ADVECTION TAKES ITS TIME TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWFA MOST
OF TUESDAY WHILE AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN US. CAA
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH COLD FRONT ORIENTED ALONG THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AND SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGER TROUGH WILL ENCOUNTER THE FRONT AND
START TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING AND IT IS
THIS LOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AS IT RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES OF PERHAPS 50-100 MILES IN THE LOW TRACK BETWEEN THE
GFS/NAM/CMC/EC...THE 00Z CYCLE OF GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THOUGH THE NAM REMAINS A SLIGHT OUTLIER IN TAKING THE
LOW MORE OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEPENING IT AS QUICKLY. THERE IS
CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF PEAK POPS...A LITTLE BEFORE DAYBREAK WED
IN THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT ZONES...AND LATE MRNG IN THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE INCREASING CONSENSUS.

PRE-EXISTING COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE LOW PASSES
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA PARTIAL THICKNESSES
WILL ALREADY BE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PTYPES EARLY WED MRNG...BUT WILL
PLUNGE FURTHER BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS AWAY. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WILL RESULT WITH NO ELEVATED WARM LAYERS SEEN ON
ANY OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. SFC T OR TW VALUES ONLY FAVOR
SNOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF QPF GUIDANCE
BUT THE BLENDED VALUES ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
LIQUID VALUES DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE...WELL UNDER AN INCH EVEN IN OUR
SERN/ERN ZONES NEAREST THE LOW. SNOW TOTALS IN THE MTNS LOOK TO BE
ADVISORY-LEVEL ATTM. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR IS ONLY QUESTIONABLE EARLY
IN THE EVENT LEAVING LIQUID QPF AS THE MAIN FACTOR IN SNOWFALL.
PROVIDED THAT THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE COASTAL TRACK I HAVE PRETTY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THESE TOTALS.

BY WED NIGHT AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL REACH
THE MTNS AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH EXITS THE OHIO
VALLEY. LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO NWLY ACRS THE AREA BY THU MRNG AND
PROG SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT NEAR THE TENN
BORDER. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLURRIES
MAY CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES THRU THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
FINALLY DIMINISHES THU NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACRS THE AREA THU
AFTN WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND THIS KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
FLOW FLATTENS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY IT APPEARS RETURN FLOW DOES NOT BRING BACK MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. INSTEAD...BOTH THE 24/00Z GFS AND
EC BRING THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING A
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
ALBEIT MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A VERY COMPLEX/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS...AS GUIDANCE HAS DONE AN EXTREMELY POOR JOB IN
HANDLING THE ONGOING EROSION OF COLD AIR DAMMING AIR MASS...AND
ASSOCIATED SCATTERING OF SUB-MVFR CIGS (AT LEAST IN MOST AREAS). A
SMATTERING OF IFR DOES PERSIST NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT EVEN THIS AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SMALL. WARM
FRONT HAS BASICALLY LIFTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...ALLOWING VERY
STOUT S/SW WINDS TO DEVELOP...AND THESE SHOULDN/T BE RELAXING
ANYTIME SOON...AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RESPECTABLE IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THAT IN MIND...FOG SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...AND THE VISBY FORECAST HAS BEEN
IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ACT TO KEEP CIGS FROM CRASHING TO LIFR
(OR LOWER) AS WAS EARLIER PREDICTED. HOWEVER...THE CIG FORECAST IS
THE MOST UNCERTAIN COMPONENT OF THE FORECAST...AND IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY IF CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR OR RETURN TO IFR LATER THIS MORNING.
CONSIDERING THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL LIFT...IT IS
APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NEARER THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE LIFT WILL
OCCUR. THEREFORE...TEMPOS FOR IFR HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...THE EXCEPTION BEING KCLT...WHICH WILL
NOT SEE ANY EFFECTS FROM THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST ATTM.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE...WITH
RAIN (PIEDMONT) AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP (MOUNTAINS) POSSIBLY RETURNING
WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   67%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  89%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 240619
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
119 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 105 AM...PRECIP HAS COMPLETELY CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA...
PROMPTING A LOWERING OF POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SOME TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCES HAVE BEEN RETAINED...MAINLY NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...THE IN SITU CAD AIR MASS HAS ERODED
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL SLIVER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN ESCARPMENT. IN FACT...KHKY WARMED ALMOST 10
DEGREES IN THE PAST HOUR. GUSTY S/SW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A FOG
THREAT FOR THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO CLIMB
TOWARD THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MTN
VALLEYS.

AS OF 950 PM...THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER LEVELS ON MUD CREEK NEAR HENDERSONVILLE AND LITTLE RIVER
NEAR PENROSE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS EVENING.

THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...STEADY TO GUSTY SSW
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG AND
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS OF 645 PM...I WILL ADJUST POPS AND WX TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
GIVEN HIGH LLVL SHEAR AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...INTEREST
SIGNATURES WILL OCCUR AS THE LINE PASSES THIS EVENING. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD...WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE WARMING TEMPS
AFTER THE RAIN BAND.

AS OF 5 PM...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS GA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF STRONG LLVL
ROTATION WITH TDS. HOWEVER...THE STORMS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER HAS THEY
ENCOUNTERED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. I WILL INCREASE POPS AND
MENTION OF TS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...A
FINAL ROUND OF 2-4 HOUR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS IN THE OFFING.


AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE JET STREAK COMBINED WITH ONGOING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP
THE PERSISTENT IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING PROMOTE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
LIFT. THE SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS TREND SHOWS AREAS OF
100-300J/KG MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL GA AND MIDLANDS SC LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR SW ZONES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THUNDER WERE
APPROACHING THE NE GA. HENCE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX
GRID TO INCLUDE THUNDER COVERING NE GA...UPSTATE SC AND WESTERN PART
OF THE NC PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. THIS ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER RAINFALL RATES...WITH ADDITIONAL
0.75-1.5" CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND STRONG LLV WIND
SHEAR...PERSISTENT IN-SITU CAD SHOULD LIMIT OUR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN FACT...THE LATEST 12Z GFS/NAM KEEPS THE CAD AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z MON...BEFORE ERODING BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS WELL IN LINE WITH THIS...KEEPING OUR AREA FREE
OF MARGINAL THREAT. HOWEVER...IF AREAS OF SBCAPE PUSH FARTHER NORTH
INTO OUR AREA BY THE TIME CAD ERODES TONIGHT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASES ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR HWO
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF OUR CWA.

POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRY AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY UNDER
A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND
20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...REACHING THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE
MTNS. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW
AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING WSW WINDS WILL LIMIT THE BUOYANCY. WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WE WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-25
MPH BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...ONCE OUR CURRENT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY BY
LATE MONDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE MOST NOTABLE THING WILL BE THAT HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK TO SOMETHING MORE LIKE A CATEGORY OR
SO BELOW NORMAL. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE JET CORE REMAINS JUST TO OUR NW.

THAT BRINGS US TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS IN DEVELOPING A
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ON THE OLD COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP THE LOW A BIT FURTHER W WITH
EACH RUN...WHICH SPEAKS FAVORABLY TO AN INCREASING TREND IN PRECIP
PROBABILITY. WILL BUMP POP INTO THE CHC RANGE ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE MTNS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/CLT METRO AREA. OF NOTE IS THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH
IS MUCH FARTHER E AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AND THUS
DISCOUNTED. THE PRECIP TYPE IS THE PROBLEM...AS THE PARTIAL
THICKNESS FROM THE ECMWF IS LOWER AND MORE BORDERLINE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. CONSIDERING A BLEND OF THICKNESS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF...
THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A WARM
NOSE...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SITUATION. IF
THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...THEN WE MUST CONSIDER THE MODEL
DEPICTION OF FREEZING LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE ABOUT 3K FEET AND THE
SFC DEWPOINT BOTTOMING OUT ONLY IN THE MID-30S OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
THAT SIMPLY WILL NOT CUT IT IF WE WANT SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND
OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THAT COMBINED WITH THE MODEL TREND OF MOVING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER W EACH RUN SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP TYPE IS LIKELY
TO TREND EVEN MORE TOWARD RAIN VERSUS SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SO...WENT WITH A COLD RAIN. THE MTNS ARE STILL LOOKING LIKE AN
ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW/RAIN DEAL...WITH THE ONLY THING UP IN THE
AIR BEING THE SNOW LEVEL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 4K FEET. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE IS TIME FOR SOME PHASING OF SRN
AND NRN STREAM WAVES...WHICH MIGHT TRACK THE SYSTEM SO FAR W SO AS
TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE MTNS. WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE HWO
YET BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED SCOPE OF THE SNOW ACCUM POTENTIAL. PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTOGENESIS
LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR NW AND STEEP UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
PATTERN FLATTENING IN THE TROFS WAKE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...THE ECMWF IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE GFS WRT MAINTAINING A MORE
ZONAL UPPER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DO
AMPLIFY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ON SAT/SUN...HOWEVER IT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX.

AT THE SFC...BY 00Z THURS THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT PRETTY QUICKLY
AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A WEAK SECONDARY
OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE MAIN LOW
LIFTS NE AND SOME LINGERING PRECIP IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND I ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. BY FRI...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF TRIES TO
MOVE A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT
AND THE GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR...ONLY ABOUT 24 HRS LATER ON
SUN. THESE SCENARIOS LOOK SUSPICIOUS AND I WOULD NOT PLACE TOO MUCH
FAITH ON THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT OF THE MOISTER RIGHT NOW. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD WITH DAILY VALUES INCREASING
A FEW DEGREES THRU DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A VERY COMPLEX/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS...AS GUIDANCE HAS DONE AN EXTREMELY POOR JOB IN
HANDLING THE ONGOING EROSION OF COLD AIR DAMMING AIR MASS...AND
ASSOCIATED SCATTERING OF SUB-MVFR CIGS (AT LEAST IN MOST AREAS). A
SMATTERING OF IFR DOES PERSIST NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT EVEN THIS AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SMALL. WARM
FRONT HAS BASICALLY LIFTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...ALLOWING VERY
STOUT S/SW WINDS TO DEVELOP...AND THESE SHOULDN/T BE RELAXING
ANYTIME SOON...AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RESPECTABLE IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THAT IN MIND...FOG SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...AND THE VISBY FORECAST HAS BEEN
IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ACT TO KEEP CIGS FROM CRASHING TO LIFR
(OR LOWER) AS WAS EARLIER PREDICTED. HOWEVER...THE CIG FORECAST IS
THE MOST UNCERTAIN COMPONENT OF THE FORECAST...AND IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY IF CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR OR RETURN TO IFR LATER THIS MORNING.
CONSIDERING THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL LIFT...IT IS
APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NEARER THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE LIFT WILL
OCCUR. THEREFORE...TEMPOS FOR IFR HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...THE EXCEPTION BEING KCLT...WHICH WILL
NOT SEE ANY EFFECTS FROM THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST ATTM.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE...WITH
RAIN (PIEDMONT) AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP (MOUNTAINS) POSSIBLY RETURNING
WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   79%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   73%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   70%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL




000
FXUS62 KGSP 240619
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
119 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 105 AM...PRECIP HAS COMPLETELY CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA...
PROMPTING A LOWERING OF POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SOME TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCES HAVE BEEN RETAINED...MAINLY NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...THE IN SITU CAD AIR MASS HAS ERODED
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL SLIVER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN ESCARPMENT. IN FACT...KHKY WARMED ALMOST 10
DEGREES IN THE PAST HOUR. GUSTY S/SW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A FOG
THREAT FOR THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO CLIMB
TOWARD THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MTN
VALLEYS.

AS OF 950 PM...THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER LEVELS ON MUD CREEK NEAR HENDERSONVILLE AND LITTLE RIVER
NEAR PENROSE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS EVENING.

THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...STEADY TO GUSTY SSW
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG AND
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS OF 645 PM...I WILL ADJUST POPS AND WX TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
GIVEN HIGH LLVL SHEAR AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...INTEREST
SIGNATURES WILL OCCUR AS THE LINE PASSES THIS EVENING. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD...WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE WARMING TEMPS
AFTER THE RAIN BAND.

AS OF 5 PM...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS GA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF STRONG LLVL
ROTATION WITH TDS. HOWEVER...THE STORMS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER HAS THEY
ENCOUNTERED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. I WILL INCREASE POPS AND
MENTION OF TS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...A
FINAL ROUND OF 2-4 HOUR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS IN THE OFFING.


AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE JET STREAK COMBINED WITH ONGOING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP
THE PERSISTENT IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING PROMOTE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
LIFT. THE SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS TREND SHOWS AREAS OF
100-300J/KG MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL GA AND MIDLANDS SC LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR SW ZONES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THUNDER WERE
APPROACHING THE NE GA. HENCE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX
GRID TO INCLUDE THUNDER COVERING NE GA...UPSTATE SC AND WESTERN PART
OF THE NC PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. THIS ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER RAINFALL RATES...WITH ADDITIONAL
0.75-1.5" CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND STRONG LLV WIND
SHEAR...PERSISTENT IN-SITU CAD SHOULD LIMIT OUR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN FACT...THE LATEST 12Z GFS/NAM KEEPS THE CAD AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z MON...BEFORE ERODING BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS WELL IN LINE WITH THIS...KEEPING OUR AREA FREE
OF MARGINAL THREAT. HOWEVER...IF AREAS OF SBCAPE PUSH FARTHER NORTH
INTO OUR AREA BY THE TIME CAD ERODES TONIGHT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASES ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR HWO
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF OUR CWA.

POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRY AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY UNDER
A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND
20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...REACHING THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE
MTNS. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW
AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING WSW WINDS WILL LIMIT THE BUOYANCY. WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WE WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-25
MPH BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...ONCE OUR CURRENT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY BY
LATE MONDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE MOST NOTABLE THING WILL BE THAT HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK TO SOMETHING MORE LIKE A CATEGORY OR
SO BELOW NORMAL. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE JET CORE REMAINS JUST TO OUR NW.

THAT BRINGS US TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS IN DEVELOPING A
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ON THE OLD COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP THE LOW A BIT FURTHER W WITH
EACH RUN...WHICH SPEAKS FAVORABLY TO AN INCREASING TREND IN PRECIP
PROBABILITY. WILL BUMP POP INTO THE CHC RANGE ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE MTNS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/CLT METRO AREA. OF NOTE IS THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH
IS MUCH FARTHER E AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AND THUS
DISCOUNTED. THE PRECIP TYPE IS THE PROBLEM...AS THE PARTIAL
THICKNESS FROM THE ECMWF IS LOWER AND MORE BORDERLINE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. CONSIDERING A BLEND OF THICKNESS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF...
THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A WARM
NOSE...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SITUATION. IF
THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...THEN WE MUST CONSIDER THE MODEL
DEPICTION OF FREEZING LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE ABOUT 3K FEET AND THE
SFC DEWPOINT BOTTOMING OUT ONLY IN THE MID-30S OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
THAT SIMPLY WILL NOT CUT IT IF WE WANT SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND
OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THAT COMBINED WITH THE MODEL TREND OF MOVING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER W EACH RUN SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP TYPE IS LIKELY
TO TREND EVEN MORE TOWARD RAIN VERSUS SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SO...WENT WITH A COLD RAIN. THE MTNS ARE STILL LOOKING LIKE AN
ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW/RAIN DEAL...WITH THE ONLY THING UP IN THE
AIR BEING THE SNOW LEVEL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 4K FEET. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE IS TIME FOR SOME PHASING OF SRN
AND NRN STREAM WAVES...WHICH MIGHT TRACK THE SYSTEM SO FAR W SO AS
TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE MTNS. WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE HWO
YET BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED SCOPE OF THE SNOW ACCUM POTENTIAL. PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTOGENESIS
LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR NW AND STEEP UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
PATTERN FLATTENING IN THE TROFS WAKE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...THE ECMWF IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE GFS WRT MAINTAINING A MORE
ZONAL UPPER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DO
AMPLIFY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ON SAT/SUN...HOWEVER IT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX.

AT THE SFC...BY 00Z THURS THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT PRETTY QUICKLY
AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A WEAK SECONDARY
OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE MAIN LOW
LIFTS NE AND SOME LINGERING PRECIP IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND I ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. BY FRI...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF TRIES TO
MOVE A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT
AND THE GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR...ONLY ABOUT 24 HRS LATER ON
SUN. THESE SCENARIOS LOOK SUSPICIOUS AND I WOULD NOT PLACE TOO MUCH
FAITH ON THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT OF THE MOISTER RIGHT NOW. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD WITH DAILY VALUES INCREASING
A FEW DEGREES THRU DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A VERY COMPLEX/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS...AS GUIDANCE HAS DONE AN EXTREMELY POOR JOB IN
HANDLING THE ONGOING EROSION OF COLD AIR DAMMING AIR MASS...AND
ASSOCIATED SCATTERING OF SUB-MVFR CIGS (AT LEAST IN MOST AREAS). A
SMATTERING OF IFR DOES PERSIST NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT EVEN THIS AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SMALL. WARM
FRONT HAS BASICALLY LIFTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...ALLOWING VERY
STOUT S/SW WINDS TO DEVELOP...AND THESE SHOULDN/T BE RELAXING
ANYTIME SOON...AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RESPECTABLE IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THAT IN MIND...FOG SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...AND THE VISBY FORECAST HAS BEEN
IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ACT TO KEEP CIGS FROM CRASHING TO LIFR
(OR LOWER) AS WAS EARLIER PREDICTED. HOWEVER...THE CIG FORECAST IS
THE MOST UNCERTAIN COMPONENT OF THE FORECAST...AND IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY IF CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR OR RETURN TO IFR LATER THIS MORNING.
CONSIDERING THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL LIFT...IT IS
APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS NEARER THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE LIFT WILL
OCCUR. THEREFORE...TEMPOS FOR IFR HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...THE EXCEPTION BEING KCLT...WHICH WILL
NOT SEE ANY EFFECTS FROM THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST ATTM.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE...WITH
RAIN (PIEDMONT) AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP (MOUNTAINS) POSSIBLY RETURNING
WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   79%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   73%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   70%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL





000
FXUS62 KGSP 240259
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
959 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM...THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER LEVELS ON MUD CREEK NEAR HENDERSONVILLE AND LITTLE RIVER
NEAR PENROSE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS EVENING.

THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...STEADY TO GUSTY SSW
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PEIDMONT. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG AND
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS OF 645 PM...I WILL ADJUST POPS AND WX TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
GIVEN HIGH LLVL SHEAR AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...INTEREST
SIGNATURES WILL OCCUR AS THE LINE PASSES THIS EVENING. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD...WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE WARMING TEMPS
AFTER THE RAIN BAND.

AS OF 5 PM...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS GA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF STRONG LLVL
ROTATION WITH TDS. HOWEVER...THE STORMS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER HAS THEY
ENCOUNTERED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. I WILL INCREASE POPS AND
MENTION OF TS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...A
FINAL ROUND OF 2-4 HOUR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS IN THE OFFING.


AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE JET STREAK COMBINED WITH ONGOING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP
THE PERSISTENT IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING PROMOTE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
LIFT. THE SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS TREND SHOWS AREAS OF
100-300J/KG MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL GA AND MIDLANDS SC LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR SW ZONES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THUNDER WERE
APPROACHING THE NE GA. HENCE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX
GRID TO INCLUDE THUNDER COVERING NE GA...UPSTATE SC AND WESTERN PART
OF THE NC PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. THIS ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER RAINFALL RATES...WITH ADDITIONAL
0.75-1.5" CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND STRONG LLV WIND
SHEAR...PERSISTENT IN-SITU CAD SHOULD LIMIT OUR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN FACT...THE LATEST 12Z GFS/NAM KEEPS THE CAD AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z MON...BEFORE ERODING BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS WELL IN LINE WITH THIS...KEEPING OUR AREA FREE
OF MARGINAL THREAT. HOWEVER...IF AREAS OF SBCAPE PUSH FARTHER NORTH
INTO OUR AREA BY THE TIME CAD ERODES TONIGHT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASES ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR HWO
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF OUR CWA.

POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRY AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY UNDER
A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND
20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...REACHING THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE
MTNS. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW
AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING WSW WINDS WILL LIMIT THE BUOYANCY. WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WE WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-25
MPH BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...ONCE OUR CURRENT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY BY
LATE MONDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE MOST NOTABLE THING WILL BE THAT HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK TO SOMETHING MORE LIKE A CATEGORY OR
SO BELOW NORMAL. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE JET CORE REMAINS JUST TO OUR NW.

THAT BRINGS US TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS IN DEVELOPING A
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ON THE OLD COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP THE LOW A BIT FURTHER W WITH
EACH RUN...WHICH SPEAKS FAVORABLY TO AN INCREASING TREND IN PRECIP
PROBABILITY. WILL BUMP POP INTO THE CHC RANGE ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE MTNS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/CLT METRO AREA. OF NOTE IS THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH
IS MUCH FARTHER E AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AND THUS
DISCOUNTED. THE PRECIP TYPE IS THE PROBLEM...AS THE PARTIAL
THICKNESS FROM THE ECMWF IS LOWER AND MORE BORDERLINE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. CONSIDERING A BLEND OF THICKNESS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF...
THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A WARM
NOSE...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SITUATION. IF
THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...THEN WE MUST CONSIDER THE MODEL
DEPICTION OF FREEZING LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE ABOUT 3K FEET AND THE
SFC DEWPOINT BOTTOMING OUT ONLY IN THE MID-30S OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
THAT SIMPLY WILL NOT CUT IT IF WE WANT SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND
OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THAT COMBINED WITH THE MODEL TREND OF MOVING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER W EACH RUN SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP TYPE IS LIKELY
TO TREND EVEN MORE TOWARD RAIN VERSUS SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SO...WENT WITH A COLD RAIN. THE MTNS ARE STILL LOOKING LIKE AN
ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW/RAIN DEAL...WITH THE ONLY THING UP IN THE
AIR BEING THE SNOW LEVEL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 4K FEET. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE IS TIME FOR SOME PHASING OF SRN
AND NRN STREAM WAVES...WHICH MIGHT TRACK THE SYSTEM SO FAR W SO AS
TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE MTNS. WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE HWO
YET BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED SCOPE OF THE SNOW ACCUM POTENTIAL. PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTOGENESIS
LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR NW AND STEEP UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
PATTERN FLATTENING IN THE TROFS WAKE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...THE ECMWF IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE GFS WRT MAINTAINING A MORE
ZONAL UPPER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DO
AMPLIFY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ON SAT/SUN...HOWEVER IT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX.

AT THE SFC...BY 00Z THURS THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT PRETTY QUICKLY
AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A WEAK SECONDARY
OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE MAIN LOW
LIFTS NE AND SOME LINGERING PRECIP IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND I ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. BY FRI...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF TRIES TO
MOVE A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT
AND THE GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR...ONLY ABOUT 24 HRS LATER ON
SUN. THESE SCENARIOS LOOK SUSPICIOUS AND I WOULD NOT PLACE TOO MUCH
FAITH ON THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT OF THE MOISTER RIGHT NOW. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD WITH DAILY VALUES INCREASING
A FEW DEGREES THRU DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...VFR DEVELOPING BY
LATE MON MORNING. LATEST RADAR INDICATES THAT A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN...WITHIN EMBEDDED TSRA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 2Z. LLWS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. AFTER 2Z...GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN THROUGH
SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS INDICATE THAT CLOUD BASES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 003. BY 16Z...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP...CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 060. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE TERMINAL AFTER 0Z...BUT DURING EARLY
MON EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...TIMING AND CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO CLT. ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD KEEP SW WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY MON EVENING.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON-TUE...WITH RAIN
AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLY RETURNING WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       MED   75%     MED   69%     MED   64%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   72%     MED   75%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   72%     MED   61%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   72%     MED   75%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   75%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 240259
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
959 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM...THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER LEVELS ON MUD CREEK NEAR HENDERSONVILLE AND LITTLE RIVER
NEAR PENROSE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS EVENING.

THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...STEADY TO GUSTY SSW
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PEIDMONT. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG AND
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS OF 645 PM...I WILL ADJUST POPS AND WX TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
GIVEN HIGH LLVL SHEAR AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...INTEREST
SIGNATURES WILL OCCUR AS THE LINE PASSES THIS EVENING. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD...WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE WARMING TEMPS
AFTER THE RAIN BAND.

AS OF 5 PM...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS GA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF STRONG LLVL
ROTATION WITH TDS. HOWEVER...THE STORMS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER HAS THEY
ENCOUNTERED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. I WILL INCREASE POPS AND
MENTION OF TS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...A
FINAL ROUND OF 2-4 HOUR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS IN THE OFFING.


AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE JET STREAK COMBINED WITH ONGOING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP
THE PERSISTENT IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING PROMOTE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
LIFT. THE SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS TREND SHOWS AREAS OF
100-300J/KG MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL GA AND MIDLANDS SC LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR SW ZONES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THUNDER WERE
APPROACHING THE NE GA. HENCE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX
GRID TO INCLUDE THUNDER COVERING NE GA...UPSTATE SC AND WESTERN PART
OF THE NC PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. THIS ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER RAINFALL RATES...WITH ADDITIONAL
0.75-1.5" CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND STRONG LLV WIND
SHEAR...PERSISTENT IN-SITU CAD SHOULD LIMIT OUR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN FACT...THE LATEST 12Z GFS/NAM KEEPS THE CAD AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z MON...BEFORE ERODING BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS WELL IN LINE WITH THIS...KEEPING OUR AREA FREE
OF MARGINAL THREAT. HOWEVER...IF AREAS OF SBCAPE PUSH FARTHER NORTH
INTO OUR AREA BY THE TIME CAD ERODES TONIGHT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASES ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR HWO
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF OUR CWA.

POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRY AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY UNDER
A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND
20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...REACHING THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE
MTNS. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW
AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING WSW WINDS WILL LIMIT THE BUOYANCY. WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WE WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-25
MPH BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...ONCE OUR CURRENT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY BY
LATE MONDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE MOST NOTABLE THING WILL BE THAT HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK TO SOMETHING MORE LIKE A CATEGORY OR
SO BELOW NORMAL. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE JET CORE REMAINS JUST TO OUR NW.

THAT BRINGS US TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS IN DEVELOPING A
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ON THE OLD COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP THE LOW A BIT FURTHER W WITH
EACH RUN...WHICH SPEAKS FAVORABLY TO AN INCREASING TREND IN PRECIP
PROBABILITY. WILL BUMP POP INTO THE CHC RANGE ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE MTNS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/CLT METRO AREA. OF NOTE IS THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH
IS MUCH FARTHER E AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AND THUS
DISCOUNTED. THE PRECIP TYPE IS THE PROBLEM...AS THE PARTIAL
THICKNESS FROM THE ECMWF IS LOWER AND MORE BORDERLINE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. CONSIDERING A BLEND OF THICKNESS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF...
THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A WARM
NOSE...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SITUATION. IF
THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...THEN WE MUST CONSIDER THE MODEL
DEPICTION OF FREEZING LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE ABOUT 3K FEET AND THE
SFC DEWPOINT BOTTOMING OUT ONLY IN THE MID-30S OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
THAT SIMPLY WILL NOT CUT IT IF WE WANT SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND
OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THAT COMBINED WITH THE MODEL TREND OF MOVING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER W EACH RUN SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP TYPE IS LIKELY
TO TREND EVEN MORE TOWARD RAIN VERSUS SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SO...WENT WITH A COLD RAIN. THE MTNS ARE STILL LOOKING LIKE AN
ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW/RAIN DEAL...WITH THE ONLY THING UP IN THE
AIR BEING THE SNOW LEVEL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 4K FEET. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE IS TIME FOR SOME PHASING OF SRN
AND NRN STREAM WAVES...WHICH MIGHT TRACK THE SYSTEM SO FAR W SO AS
TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE MTNS. WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE HWO
YET BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED SCOPE OF THE SNOW ACCUM POTENTIAL. PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTOGENESIS
LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR NW AND STEEP UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
PATTERN FLATTENING IN THE TROFS WAKE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...THE ECMWF IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE GFS WRT MAINTAINING A MORE
ZONAL UPPER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DO
AMPLIFY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ON SAT/SUN...HOWEVER IT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX.

AT THE SFC...BY 00Z THURS THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT PRETTY QUICKLY
AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A WEAK SECONDARY
OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE MAIN LOW
LIFTS NE AND SOME LINGERING PRECIP IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND I ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. BY FRI...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF TRIES TO
MOVE A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT
AND THE GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR...ONLY ABOUT 24 HRS LATER ON
SUN. THESE SCENARIOS LOOK SUSPICIOUS AND I WOULD NOT PLACE TOO MUCH
FAITH ON THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT OF THE MOISTER RIGHT NOW. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD WITH DAILY VALUES INCREASING
A FEW DEGREES THRU DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...VFR DEVELOPING BY
LATE MON MORNING. LATEST RADAR INDICATES THAT A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN...WITHIN EMBEDDED TSRA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 2Z. LLWS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. AFTER 2Z...GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN THROUGH
SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS INDICATE THAT CLOUD BASES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 003. BY 16Z...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP...CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 060. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE TERMINAL AFTER 0Z...BUT DURING EARLY
MON EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...TIMING AND CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO CLT. ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD KEEP SW WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY MON EVENING.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON-TUE...WITH RAIN
AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLY RETURNING WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       MED   75%     MED   69%     MED   64%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   72%     MED   75%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   72%     MED   61%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   72%     MED   75%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  80%     MED   75%     MED   61%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 232352
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM...I WILL ADJUST POPS AND WX TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
GIVEN HIGH LLVL SHEAR AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...INTEREST
SIGNATURES WILL OCCUR AS THE LINE PASSES THIS EVENING. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD...WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE WARMING TEMPS
AFTER THE RAIN BAND.

AS OF 5 PM...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS GA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF STRONG LLVL
ROTATION WITH TDS. HOWEVER...THE STORMS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER HAS THEY
ENCOUNTERED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. I WILL INCREASE POPS AND
MENTION OF TS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...A
FINAL ROUND OF 2-4 HOUR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS IN THE OFFING.


AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE JET STREAK COMBINED WITH ONGOING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP
THE PERSISTENT IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING PROMOTE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
LIFT. THE SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS TREND SHOWS AREAS OF
100-300J/KG MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL GA AND MIDLANDS SC LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR SW ZONES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THUNDER WERE
APPROACHING THE NE GA. HENCE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX
GRID TO INCLUDE THUNDER COVERING NE GA...UPSTATE SC AND WESTERN PART
OF THE NC PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. THIS ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER RAINFALL RATES...WITH ADDITIONAL
0.75-1.5" CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND STRONG LLV WIND
SHEAR...PERSISTENT IN-SITU CAD SHOULD LIMIT OUR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN FACT...THE LATEST 12Z GFS/NAM KEEPS THE CAD AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z MON...BEFORE ERODING BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS WELL IN LINE WITH THIS...KEEPING OUR AREA FREE
OF MARGINAL THREAT. HOWEVER...IF AREAS OF SBCAPE PUSH FARTHER NORTH
INTO OUR AREA BY THE TIME CAD ERODES TONIGHT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASES ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR HWO
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF OUR CWA.

POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRY AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY UNDER
A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND
20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...REACHING THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE
MTNS. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW
AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING WSW WINDS WILL LIMIT THE BUOYANCY. WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WE WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-25
MPH BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...ONCE OUR CURRENT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY BY
LATE MONDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE MOST NOTABLE THING WILL BE THAT HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK TO SOMETHING MORE LIKE A CATEGORY OR
SO BELOW NORMAL. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE JET CORE REMAINS JUST TO OUR NW.

THAT BRINGS US TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS IN DEVELOPING A
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ON THE OLD COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP THE LOW A BIT FURTHER W WITH
EACH RUN...WHICH SPEAKS FAVORABLY TO AN INCREASING TREND IN PRECIP
PROBABILITY. WILL BUMP POP INTO THE CHC RANGE ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE MTNS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/CLT METRO AREA. OF NOTE IS THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH
IS MUCH FARTHER E AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AND THUS
DISCOUNTED. THE PRECIP TYPE IS THE PROBLEM...AS THE PARTIAL
THICKNESS FROM THE ECMWF IS LOWER AND MORE BORDERLINE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. CONSIDERING A BLEND OF THICKNESS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF...
THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A WARM
NOSE...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SITUATION. IF
THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...THEN WE MUST CONSIDER THE MODEL
DEPICTION OF FREEZING LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE ABOUT 3K FEET AND THE
SFC DEWPOINT BOTTOMING OUT ONLY IN THE MID-30S OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
THAT SIMPLY WILL NOT CUT IT IF WE WANT SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND
OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THAT COMBINED WITH THE MODEL TREND OF MOVING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER W EACH RUN SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP TYPE IS LIKELY
TO TREND EVEN MORE TOWARD RAIN VERSUS SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SO...WENT WITH A COLD RAIN. THE MTNS ARE STILL LOOKING LIKE AN
ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW/RAIN DEAL...WITH THE ONLY THING UP IN THE
AIR BEING THE SNOW LEVEL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 4K FEET. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE IS TIME FOR SOME PHASING OF SRN
AND NRN STREAM WAVES...WHICH MIGHT TRACK THE SYSTEM SO FAR W SO AS
TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE MTNS. WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE HWO
YET BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED SCOPE OF THE SNOW ACCUM POTENTIAL. PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTOGENESIS
LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR NW AND STEEP UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
PATTERN FLATTENING IN THE TROFS WAKE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...THE ECMWF IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE GFS WRT MAINTAINING A MORE
ZONAL UPPER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DO
AMPLIFY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ON SAT/SUN...HOWEVER IT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX.

AT THE SFC...BY 00Z THURS THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT PRETTY QUICKLY
AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A WEAK SECONDARY
OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE MAIN LOW
LIFTS NE AND SOME LINGERING PRECIP IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND I ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. BY FRI...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF TRIES TO
MOVE A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT
AND THE GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR...ONLY ABOUT 24 HRS LATER ON
SUN. THESE SCENARIOS LOOK SUSPICIOUS AND I WOULD NOT PLACE TOO MUCH
FAITH ON THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT OF THE MOISTER RIGHT NOW. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD WITH DAILY VALUES INCREASING
A FEW DEGREES THRU DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...VFR DEVELOPING BY
LATE MON MORNING. LATEST RADAR INDICATES THAT A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN...WITHIN EMBEDDED TSRA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 2Z. LLWS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. AFTER 2Z...GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN THROUGH
SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS INDICATE THAT CLOUD BASES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 003. BY 16Z...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP...CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 060. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE TERMINAL AFTER 0Z...BUT DURING EARLY
MON EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...TIMING AND CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO CLT. ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD KEEP SW WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY MON EVENING.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON-TUE...WITH RAIN
AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLY RETURNING WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  84%     MED   72%     MED   63%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     MED   79%     MED   60%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     HIGH  88%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     MED   71%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH  83%     MED   60%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH  87%     MED   73%     MED   63%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED





000
FXUS62 KGSP 232352
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM...I WILL ADJUST POPS AND WX TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
GIVEN HIGH LLVL SHEAR AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...INTEREST
SIGNATURES WILL OCCUR AS THE LINE PASSES THIS EVENING. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD...WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE WARMING TEMPS
AFTER THE RAIN BAND.

AS OF 5 PM...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS GA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF STRONG LLVL
ROTATION WITH TDS. HOWEVER...THE STORMS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER HAS THEY
ENCOUNTERED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. I WILL INCREASE POPS AND
MENTION OF TS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...A
FINAL ROUND OF 2-4 HOUR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS IN THE OFFING.


AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE JET STREAK COMBINED WITH ONGOING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP
THE PERSISTENT IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING PROMOTE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
LIFT. THE SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS TREND SHOWS AREAS OF
100-300J/KG MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL GA AND MIDLANDS SC LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR SW ZONES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THUNDER WERE
APPROACHING THE NE GA. HENCE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX
GRID TO INCLUDE THUNDER COVERING NE GA...UPSTATE SC AND WESTERN PART
OF THE NC PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. THIS ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER RAINFALL RATES...WITH ADDITIONAL
0.75-1.5" CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND STRONG LLV WIND
SHEAR...PERSISTENT IN-SITU CAD SHOULD LIMIT OUR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN FACT...THE LATEST 12Z GFS/NAM KEEPS THE CAD AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z MON...BEFORE ERODING BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS WELL IN LINE WITH THIS...KEEPING OUR AREA FREE
OF MARGINAL THREAT. HOWEVER...IF AREAS OF SBCAPE PUSH FARTHER NORTH
INTO OUR AREA BY THE TIME CAD ERODES TONIGHT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASES ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR HWO
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF OUR CWA.

POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRY AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY UNDER
A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND
20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...REACHING THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE
MTNS. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW
AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING WSW WINDS WILL LIMIT THE BUOYANCY. WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WE WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-25
MPH BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...ONCE OUR CURRENT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY BY
LATE MONDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE MOST NOTABLE THING WILL BE THAT HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK TO SOMETHING MORE LIKE A CATEGORY OR
SO BELOW NORMAL. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE JET CORE REMAINS JUST TO OUR NW.

THAT BRINGS US TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS IN DEVELOPING A
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ON THE OLD COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP THE LOW A BIT FURTHER W WITH
EACH RUN...WHICH SPEAKS FAVORABLY TO AN INCREASING TREND IN PRECIP
PROBABILITY. WILL BUMP POP INTO THE CHC RANGE ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE MTNS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/CLT METRO AREA. OF NOTE IS THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH
IS MUCH FARTHER E AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AND THUS
DISCOUNTED. THE PRECIP TYPE IS THE PROBLEM...AS THE PARTIAL
THICKNESS FROM THE ECMWF IS LOWER AND MORE BORDERLINE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. CONSIDERING A BLEND OF THICKNESS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF...
THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A WARM
NOSE...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SITUATION. IF
THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...THEN WE MUST CONSIDER THE MODEL
DEPICTION OF FREEZING LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE ABOUT 3K FEET AND THE
SFC DEWPOINT BOTTOMING OUT ONLY IN THE MID-30S OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
THAT SIMPLY WILL NOT CUT IT IF WE WANT SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND
OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THAT COMBINED WITH THE MODEL TREND OF MOVING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER W EACH RUN SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP TYPE IS LIKELY
TO TREND EVEN MORE TOWARD RAIN VERSUS SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SO...WENT WITH A COLD RAIN. THE MTNS ARE STILL LOOKING LIKE AN
ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW/RAIN DEAL...WITH THE ONLY THING UP IN THE
AIR BEING THE SNOW LEVEL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 4K FEET. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE IS TIME FOR SOME PHASING OF SRN
AND NRN STREAM WAVES...WHICH MIGHT TRACK THE SYSTEM SO FAR W SO AS
TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE MTNS. WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE HWO
YET BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED SCOPE OF THE SNOW ACCUM POTENTIAL. PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTOGENESIS
LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR NW AND STEEP UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
PATTERN FLATTENING IN THE TROFS WAKE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...THE ECMWF IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE GFS WRT MAINTAINING A MORE
ZONAL UPPER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DO
AMPLIFY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ON SAT/SUN...HOWEVER IT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX.

AT THE SFC...BY 00Z THURS THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT PRETTY QUICKLY
AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A WEAK SECONDARY
OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE MAIN LOW
LIFTS NE AND SOME LINGERING PRECIP IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND I ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. BY FRI...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF TRIES TO
MOVE A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT
AND THE GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR...ONLY ABOUT 24 HRS LATER ON
SUN. THESE SCENARIOS LOOK SUSPICIOUS AND I WOULD NOT PLACE TOO MUCH
FAITH ON THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT OF THE MOISTER RIGHT NOW. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD WITH DAILY VALUES INCREASING
A FEW DEGREES THRU DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...VFR DEVELOPING BY
LATE MON MORNING. LATEST RADAR INDICATES THAT A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN...WITHIN EMBEDDED TSRA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 2Z. LLWS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. AFTER 2Z...GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN THROUGH
SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS INDICATE THAT CLOUD BASES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 003. BY 16Z...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP...CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 060. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE TERMINAL AFTER 0Z...BUT DURING EARLY
MON EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...TIMING AND CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO CLT. ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD KEEP SW WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY MON EVENING.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON-TUE...WITH RAIN
AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLY RETURNING WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH  84%     MED   72%     MED   63%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     MED   79%     MED   60%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     HIGH  88%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     MED   71%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH  83%     MED   60%     HIGH  98%
KAND       HIGH  87%     MED   73%     MED   63%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED




000
FXUS62 KGSP 232212
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
512 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 5 PM...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS GA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF STRONG LLVL
ROTATION WITH TDS. HOWEVER...THE STORMS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER HAS THEY
ENCOUNTERED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. I WILL INCREASE POPS AND
MENTION OF TS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...A
FINAL ROUND OF 2-4 HOUR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS IN THE OFFING.


AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE JET STREAK COMBINED WITH ONGOING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP
THE PERSISTENT IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING PROMOTE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
LIFT. THE SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS TREND SHOWS AREAS OF
100-300J/KG MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL GA AND MIDLANDS SC LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR SW ZONES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THUNDER WERE
APPROACHING THE NE GA. HENCE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX
GRID TO INCLUDE THUNDER COVERING NE GA...UPSTATE SC AND WESTERN PART
OF THE NC PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. THIS ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER RAINFALL RATES...WITH ADDITIONAL
0.75-1.5" CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND STRONG LLV WIND
SHEAR...PERSISTENT IN-SITU CAD SHOULD LIMIT OUR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN FACT...THE LATEST 12Z GFS/NAM KEEPS THE CAD AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z MON...BEFORE ERODING BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS WELL IN LINE WITH THIS...KEEPING OUR AREA FREE
OF MARGINAL THREAT. HOWEVER...IF AREAS OF SBCAPE PUSH FARTHER NORTH
INTO OUR AREA BY THE TIME CAD ERODES TONIGHT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASES ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR HWO
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF OUR CWA.

POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRY AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY UNDER
A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND
20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...REACHING THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE
MTNS. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW
AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING WSW WINDS WILL LIMIT THE BUOYANCY. WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WE WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-25
MPH BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...ONCE OUR CURRENT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY BY
LATE MONDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE MOST NOTABLE THING WILL BE THAT HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK TO SOMETHING MORE LIKE A CATEGORY OR
SO BELOW NORMAL. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE JET CORE REMAINS JUST TO OUR NW.

THAT BRINGS US TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS IN DEVELOPING A
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ON THE OLD COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP THE LOW A BIT FURTHER W WITH
EACH RUN...WHICH SPEAKS FAVORABLY TO AN INCREASING TREND IN PRECIP
PROBABILITY. WILL BUMP POP INTO THE CHC RANGE ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE MTNS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/CLT METRO AREA. OF NOTE IS THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH
IS MUCH FARTHER E AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AND THUS
DISCOUNTED. THE PRECIP TYPE IS THE PROBLEM...AS THE PARTIAL
THICKNESS FROM THE ECMWF IS LOWER AND MORE BORDERLINE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. CONSIDERING A BLEND OF THICKNESS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF...
THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A WARM
NOSE...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SITUATION. IF
THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...THEN WE MUST CONSIDER THE MODEL
DEPICTION OF FREEZING LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE ABOUT 3K FEET AND THE
SFC DEWPOINT BOTTOMING OUT ONLY IN THE MID-30S OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
THAT SIMPLY WILL NOT CUT IT IF WE WANT SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND
OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THAT COMBINED WITH THE MODEL TREND OF MOVING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER W EACH RUN SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP TYPE IS LIKELY
TO TREND EVEN MORE TOWARD RAIN VERSUS SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SO...WENT WITH A COLD RAIN. THE MTNS ARE STILL LOOKING LIKE AN
ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW/RAIN DEAL...WITH THE ONLY THING UP IN THE
AIR BEING THE SNOW LEVEL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 4K FEET. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE IS TIME FOR SOME PHASING OF SRN
AND NRN STREAM WAVES...WHICH MIGHT TRACK THE SYSTEM SO FAR W SO AS
TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE MTNS. WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE HWO
YET BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED SCOPE OF THE SNOW ACCUM POTENTIAL. PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTOGENESIS
LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR NW AND STEEP UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
PATTERN FLATTENING IN THE TROFS WAKE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...THE ECMWF IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE GFS WRT MAINTAINING A MORE
ZONAL UPPER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DO
AMPLIFY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ON SAT/SUN...HOWEVER IT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX.

AT THE SFC...BY 00Z THURS THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT PRETTY QUICKLY
AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A WEAK SECONDARY
OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE MAIN LOW
LIFTS NE AND SOME LINGERING PRECIP IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND I ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. BY FRI...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF TRIES TO
MOVE A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT
AND THE GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR...ONLY ABOUT 24 HRS LATER ON
SUN. THESE SCENARIOS LOOK SUSPICIOUS AND I WOULD NOT PLACE TOO MUCH
FAITH ON THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT OF THE MOISTER RIGHT NOW. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD WITH DAILY VALUES INCREASING
A FEW DEGREES THRU DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CIGS/VISBY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS AREAS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH CONTINUED
IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...ESE/NELY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 02Z MONDAY WHILE PERSISTENT S/SELY LLVL JET SUPPORT LLVL
WIND SHEAR. LLVL JET THEN VEERS TO THE SW BY 02Z MON. HENCE...HAVE
MENTIONED WS020/12040KT AT 18Z AND WS020/20040KT AT AROUND 02Z MON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS AS AREAS OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE. AS THE
SURFACE WEDGE ERODES TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SSW. IFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL THRU MON MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z AS GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP.

ELSEWHERE...TRENDS MUCH LIKE KCLT WITH CONTINUED IFR IN PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDER MAINLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT IN LIGHT OF AREAS OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY PUSHING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WITH STRONG S/SELY LLVL JET PUSHING THROUGH
ATOP THE SURFACE IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...HAVE MENTIONED LLVL WIND
SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS ACCORDINGLY. WIND CHANGES OVERALL ARE SIMILAR
IN PROGRESSION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVL WHICH WILL SEE S/SSE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON-TUE...WITH RAIN
AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLY RETURNING WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z        16-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     MED   79%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     MED   79%     MED   66%     HIGH  87%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     LOW   50%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     HIGH  83%     MED   71%     HIGH  87%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   66%     LOW   45%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231946
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE JET STREAK COMBINED WITH ONGOING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP
THE PERSISTENT IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING PROMOTE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
LIFT. THE SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS TREND SHOWS AREAS OF
100-300J/KG MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL GA AND MIDLANDS SC LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR SW ZONES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THUNDER WERE
APPROACHING THE NE GA. HENCE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX
GRID TO INCLUDE THUNDER COVERING NE GA...UPSTATE SC AND WESTERN PART
OF THE NC PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. THIS ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER RAINFALL RATES...WITH ADDITIONAL
0.75-1.5" CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND STRONG LLV WIND
SHEAR...PERSISTENT IN-SITU CAD SHOULD LIMIT OUR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN FACT...THE LATEST 12Z GFS/NAM KEEPS THE CAD AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z MON...BEFORE ERODING BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS WELL IN LINE WITH THIS...KEEPING OUR AREA FREE
OF MARGINAL THREAT. HOWEVER...IF AREAS OF SBCAPE PUSH FARTHER NORTH
INTO OUR AREA BY THE TIME CAD ERODES TONIGHT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASES ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR HWO
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF OUR CWA.

POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRY AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY UNDER
A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND
20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...REACHING THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE
MTNS. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW
AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING WSW WINDS WILL LIMIT THE BUOYANCY. WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WE WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-25
MPH BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...ONCE OUR CURRENT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY BY
LATE MONDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE MOST NOTABLE THING WILL BE THAT HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK TO SOMETHING MORE LIKE A CATEGORY OR
SO BELOW NORMAL. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE JET CORE REMAINS JUST TO OUR NW.

THAT BRINGS US TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS IN DEVELOPING A
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ON THE OLD COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP THE LOW A BIT FURTHER W WITH
EACH RUN...WHICH SPEAKS FAVORABLY TO AN INCREASING TREND IN PRECIP
PROBABILITY. WILL BUMP POP INTO THE CHC RANGE ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE MTNS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/CLT METRO AREA. OF NOTE IS THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH
IS MUCH FARTHER E AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AND THUS
DISCOUNTED. THE PRECIP TYPE IS THE PROBLEM...AS THE PARTIAL
THICKNESS FROM THE ECMWF IS LOWER AND MORE BORDERLINE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. CONSIDERING A BLEND OF THICKNESS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF...
THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A WARM
NOSE...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SITUATION. IF
THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...THEN WE MUST CONSIDER THE MODEL
DEPICTION OF FREEZING LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE ABOUT 3K FEET AND THE
SFC DEWPOINT BOTTOMING OUT ONLY IN THE MID-30S OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
THAT SIMPLY WILL NOT CUT IT IF WE WANT SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND
OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THAT COMBINED WITH THE MODEL TREND OF MOVING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER W EACH RUN SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP TYPE IS LIKELY
TO TREND EVEN MORE TOWARD RAIN VERSUS SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SO...WENT WITH A COLD RAIN. THE MTNS ARE STILL LOOKING LIKE AN
ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW/RAIN DEAL...WITH THE ONLY THING UP IN THE
AIR BEING THE SNOW LEVEL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 4K FEET. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE IS TIME FOR SOME PHASING OF SRN
AND NRN STREAM WAVES...WHICH MIGHT TRACK THE SYSTEM SO FAR W SO AS
TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE MTNS. WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE HWO
YET BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED SCOPE OF THE SNOW ACCUM POTENTIAL. PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTOGENESIS
LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR NW AND STEEP UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
PATTERN FLATTENING IN THE TROFS WAKE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...THE ECMWF IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE GFS WRT MAINTAINING A MORE
ZONAL UPPER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DO
AMPLIFY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ON SAT/SUN...HOWEVER IT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX.

AT THE SFC...BY 00Z THURS THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT PRETTY QUICKLY
AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A WEAK SECONDARY
OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE MAIN LOW
LIFTS NE AND SOME LINGERING PRECIP IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND I ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. BY FRI...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF TRIES TO
MOVE A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT
AND THE GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR...ONLY ABOUT 24 HRS LATER ON
SUN. THESE SCENARIOS LOOK SUSPICIOUS AND I WOULD NOT PLACE TOO MUCH
FAITH ON THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT OF THE MOISTER RIGHT NOW. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD WITH DAILY VALUES INCREASING
A FEW DEGREES THRU DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CIGS/VISBY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS AREAS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH CONTINUED
IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...ESE/NELY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 02Z MONDAY WHILE PERSISTENT S/SELY LLVL JET SUPPORT LLVL
WIND SHEAR. LLVL JET THEN VEERS TO THE SW BY 02Z MON. HENCE...HAVE
MENTIONED WS020/12040KT AT 18Z AND WS020/20040KT AT AROUND 02Z MON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS AS AREAS OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE. AS THE
SURFACE WEDGE ERODES TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SSW. IFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL THRU MON MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z AS GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP.

ELSEWHERE...TRENDS MUCH LIKE KCLT WITH CONTINUED IFR IN PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDER MAINLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT IN LIGHT OF AREAS OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY PUSHING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WITH STRONG S/SELY LLVL JET PUSHING THROUGH
ATOP THE SURFACE IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...HAVE MENTIONED LLVL WIND
SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS ACCORDINGLY. WIND CHANGES OVERALL ARE SIMILAR
IN PROGRESSION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVL WHICH WILL SEE S/SSE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON-TUE...WITH RAIN
AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLY RETURNING WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH  86%     MED   76%     MED   77%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     MED   66%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH  89%     MED   78%     MED   77%
KAND       HIGH  93%     MED   78%     MED   60%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JOH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 231946
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE JET STREAK COMBINED WITH ONGOING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP
THE PERSISTENT IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING PROMOTE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
LIFT. THE SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS TREND SHOWS AREAS OF
100-300J/KG MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL GA AND MIDLANDS SC LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR SW ZONES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THUNDER WERE
APPROACHING THE NE GA. HENCE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX
GRID TO INCLUDE THUNDER COVERING NE GA...UPSTATE SC AND WESTERN PART
OF THE NC PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. THIS ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER RAINFALL RATES...WITH ADDITIONAL
0.75-1.5" CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND STRONG LLV WIND
SHEAR...PERSISTENT IN-SITU CAD SHOULD LIMIT OUR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN FACT...THE LATEST 12Z GFS/NAM KEEPS THE CAD AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z MON...BEFORE ERODING BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS WELL IN LINE WITH THIS...KEEPING OUR AREA FREE
OF MARGINAL THREAT. HOWEVER...IF AREAS OF SBCAPE PUSH FARTHER NORTH
INTO OUR AREA BY THE TIME CAD ERODES TONIGHT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASES ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR HWO
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF OUR CWA.

POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRY AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY UNDER
A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND
20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...REACHING THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE
MTNS. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW
AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING WSW WINDS WILL LIMIT THE BUOYANCY. WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WE WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-25
MPH BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...ONCE OUR CURRENT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY BY
LATE MONDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE MOST NOTABLE THING WILL BE THAT HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK TO SOMETHING MORE LIKE A CATEGORY OR
SO BELOW NORMAL. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE JET CORE REMAINS JUST TO OUR NW.

THAT BRINGS US TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS IN DEVELOPING A
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ON THE OLD COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP THE LOW A BIT FURTHER W WITH
EACH RUN...WHICH SPEAKS FAVORABLY TO AN INCREASING TREND IN PRECIP
PROBABILITY. WILL BUMP POP INTO THE CHC RANGE ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE MTNS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/CLT METRO AREA. OF NOTE IS THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH
IS MUCH FARTHER E AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AND THUS
DISCOUNTED. THE PRECIP TYPE IS THE PROBLEM...AS THE PARTIAL
THICKNESS FROM THE ECMWF IS LOWER AND MORE BORDERLINE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. CONSIDERING A BLEND OF THICKNESS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF...
THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A WARM
NOSE...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SITUATION. IF
THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...THEN WE MUST CONSIDER THE MODEL
DEPICTION OF FREEZING LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE ABOUT 3K FEET AND THE
SFC DEWPOINT BOTTOMING OUT ONLY IN THE MID-30S OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
THAT SIMPLY WILL NOT CUT IT IF WE WANT SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND
OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THAT COMBINED WITH THE MODEL TREND OF MOVING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER W EACH RUN SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP TYPE IS LIKELY
TO TREND EVEN MORE TOWARD RAIN VERSUS SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SO...WENT WITH A COLD RAIN. THE MTNS ARE STILL LOOKING LIKE AN
ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW/RAIN DEAL...WITH THE ONLY THING UP IN THE
AIR BEING THE SNOW LEVEL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 4K FEET. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE IS TIME FOR SOME PHASING OF SRN
AND NRN STREAM WAVES...WHICH MIGHT TRACK THE SYSTEM SO FAR W SO AS
TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE MTNS. WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE HWO
YET BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED SCOPE OF THE SNOW ACCUM POTENTIAL. PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTOGENESIS
LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR NW AND STEEP UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
PATTERN FLATTENING IN THE TROFS WAKE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...THE ECMWF IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE GFS WRT MAINTAINING A MORE
ZONAL UPPER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DO
AMPLIFY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ON SAT/SUN...HOWEVER IT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX.

AT THE SFC...BY 00Z THURS THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT PRETTY QUICKLY
AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A WEAK SECONDARY
OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE MAIN LOW
LIFTS NE AND SOME LINGERING PRECIP IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND I ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. BY FRI...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF TRIES TO
MOVE A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT
AND THE GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR...ONLY ABOUT 24 HRS LATER ON
SUN. THESE SCENARIOS LOOK SUSPICIOUS AND I WOULD NOT PLACE TOO MUCH
FAITH ON THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT OF THE MOISTER RIGHT NOW. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD WITH DAILY VALUES INCREASING
A FEW DEGREES THRU DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CIGS/VISBY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS AREAS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH CONTINUED
IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...ESE/NELY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 02Z MONDAY WHILE PERSISTENT S/SELY LLVL JET SUPPORT LLVL
WIND SHEAR. LLVL JET THEN VEERS TO THE SW BY 02Z MON. HENCE...HAVE
MENTIONED WS020/12040KT AT 18Z AND WS020/20040KT AT AROUND 02Z MON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS AS AREAS OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE. AS THE
SURFACE WEDGE ERODES TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SSW. IFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL THRU MON MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z AS GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP.

ELSEWHERE...TRENDS MUCH LIKE KCLT WITH CONTINUED IFR IN PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDER MAINLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT IN LIGHT OF AREAS OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY PUSHING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WITH STRONG S/SELY LLVL JET PUSHING THROUGH
ATOP THE SURFACE IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...HAVE MENTIONED LLVL WIND
SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS ACCORDINGLY. WIND CHANGES OVERALL ARE SIMILAR
IN PROGRESSION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVL WHICH WILL SEE S/SSE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON-TUE...WITH RAIN
AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLY RETURNING WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH  86%     MED   76%     MED   77%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     MED   66%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH  89%     MED   78%     MED   77%
KAND       HIGH  93%     MED   78%     MED   60%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JOH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231946
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE JET STREAK COMBINED WITH ONGOING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP
THE PERSISTENT IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING PROMOTE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
LIFT. THE SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS TREND SHOWS AREAS OF
100-300J/KG MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL GA AND MIDLANDS SC LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR SW ZONES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THUNDER WERE
APPROACHING THE NE GA. HENCE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX
GRID TO INCLUDE THUNDER COVERING NE GA...UPSTATE SC AND WESTERN PART
OF THE NC PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. THIS ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER RAINFALL RATES...WITH ADDITIONAL
0.75-1.5" CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND STRONG LLV WIND
SHEAR...PERSISTENT IN-SITU CAD SHOULD LIMIT OUR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN FACT...THE LATEST 12Z GFS/NAM KEEPS THE CAD AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z MON...BEFORE ERODING BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS WELL IN LINE WITH THIS...KEEPING OUR AREA FREE
OF MARGINAL THREAT. HOWEVER...IF AREAS OF SBCAPE PUSH FARTHER NORTH
INTO OUR AREA BY THE TIME CAD ERODES TONIGHT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASES ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR HWO
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF OUR CWA.

POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRY AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY UNDER
A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND
20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...REACHING THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE
MTNS. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW
AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING WSW WINDS WILL LIMIT THE BUOYANCY. WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WE WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-25
MPH BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...ONCE OUR CURRENT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY BY
LATE MONDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE MOST NOTABLE THING WILL BE THAT HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK TO SOMETHING MORE LIKE A CATEGORY OR
SO BELOW NORMAL. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE JET CORE REMAINS JUST TO OUR NW.

THAT BRINGS US TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS IN DEVELOPING A
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ON THE OLD COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP THE LOW A BIT FURTHER W WITH
EACH RUN...WHICH SPEAKS FAVORABLY TO AN INCREASING TREND IN PRECIP
PROBABILITY. WILL BUMP POP INTO THE CHC RANGE ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE MTNS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/CLT METRO AREA. OF NOTE IS THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH
IS MUCH FARTHER E AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AND THUS
DISCOUNTED. THE PRECIP TYPE IS THE PROBLEM...AS THE PARTIAL
THICKNESS FROM THE ECMWF IS LOWER AND MORE BORDERLINE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. CONSIDERING A BLEND OF THICKNESS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF...
THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A WARM
NOSE...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SITUATION. IF
THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...THEN WE MUST CONSIDER THE MODEL
DEPICTION OF FREEZING LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE ABOUT 3K FEET AND THE
SFC DEWPOINT BOTTOMING OUT ONLY IN THE MID-30S OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
THAT SIMPLY WILL NOT CUT IT IF WE WANT SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND
OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THAT COMBINED WITH THE MODEL TREND OF MOVING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER W EACH RUN SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP TYPE IS LIKELY
TO TREND EVEN MORE TOWARD RAIN VERSUS SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SO...WENT WITH A COLD RAIN. THE MTNS ARE STILL LOOKING LIKE AN
ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW/RAIN DEAL...WITH THE ONLY THING UP IN THE
AIR BEING THE SNOW LEVEL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 4K FEET. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE IS TIME FOR SOME PHASING OF SRN
AND NRN STREAM WAVES...WHICH MIGHT TRACK THE SYSTEM SO FAR W SO AS
TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE MTNS. WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE HWO
YET BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED SCOPE OF THE SNOW ACCUM POTENTIAL. PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTOGENESIS
LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR NW AND STEEP UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
PATTERN FLATTENING IN THE TROFS WAKE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...THE ECMWF IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE GFS WRT MAINTAINING A MORE
ZONAL UPPER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DO
AMPLIFY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ON SAT/SUN...HOWEVER IT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX.

AT THE SFC...BY 00Z THURS THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT PRETTY QUICKLY
AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A WEAK SECONDARY
OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE MAIN LOW
LIFTS NE AND SOME LINGERING PRECIP IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND I ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. BY FRI...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF TRIES TO
MOVE A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT
AND THE GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR...ONLY ABOUT 24 HRS LATER ON
SUN. THESE SCENARIOS LOOK SUSPICIOUS AND I WOULD NOT PLACE TOO MUCH
FAITH ON THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT OF THE MOISTER RIGHT NOW. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD WITH DAILY VALUES INCREASING
A FEW DEGREES THRU DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CIGS/VISBY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS AREAS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH CONTINUED
IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...ESE/NELY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 02Z MONDAY WHILE PERSISTENT S/SELY LLVL JET SUPPORT LLVL
WIND SHEAR. LLVL JET THEN VEERS TO THE SW BY 02Z MON. HENCE...HAVE
MENTIONED WS020/12040KT AT 18Z AND WS020/20040KT AT AROUND 02Z MON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS AS AREAS OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE. AS THE
SURFACE WEDGE ERODES TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SSW. IFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL THRU MON MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z AS GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP.

ELSEWHERE...TRENDS MUCH LIKE KCLT WITH CONTINUED IFR IN PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDER MAINLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT IN LIGHT OF AREAS OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY PUSHING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WITH STRONG S/SELY LLVL JET PUSHING THROUGH
ATOP THE SURFACE IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...HAVE MENTIONED LLVL WIND
SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS ACCORDINGLY. WIND CHANGES OVERALL ARE SIMILAR
IN PROGRESSION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVL WHICH WILL SEE S/SSE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON-TUE...WITH RAIN
AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLY RETURNING WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH  86%     MED   76%     MED   77%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     MED   66%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH  89%     MED   78%     MED   77%
KAND       HIGH  93%     MED   78%     MED   60%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JOH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231946
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE JET STREAK COMBINED WITH ONGOING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP
THE PERSISTENT IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING PROMOTE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
LIFT. THE SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS TREND SHOWS AREAS OF
100-300J/KG MUCAPE OVER CENTRAL GA AND MIDLANDS SC LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR SW ZONES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH THUNDER WERE
APPROACHING THE NE GA. HENCE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX
GRID TO INCLUDE THUNDER COVERING NE GA...UPSTATE SC AND WESTERN PART
OF THE NC PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. THIS ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER RAINFALL RATES...WITH ADDITIONAL
0.75-1.5" CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND STRONG LLV WIND
SHEAR...PERSISTENT IN-SITU CAD SHOULD LIMIT OUR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN FACT...THE LATEST 12Z GFS/NAM KEEPS THE CAD AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z MON...BEFORE ERODING BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS WELL IN LINE WITH THIS...KEEPING OUR AREA FREE
OF MARGINAL THREAT. HOWEVER...IF AREAS OF SBCAPE PUSH FARTHER NORTH
INTO OUR AREA BY THE TIME CAD ERODES TONIGHT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASES ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR HWO
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF OUR CWA.

POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRY AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY UNDER
A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND
20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...REACHING THE LOW 70S EAST OF THE
MTNS. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW
AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING WSW WINDS WILL LIMIT THE BUOYANCY. WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WE WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-25
MPH BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...ONCE OUR CURRENT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE WAY BY
LATE MONDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE MOST NOTABLE THING WILL BE THAT HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK TO SOMETHING MORE LIKE A CATEGORY OR
SO BELOW NORMAL. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL AS THE JET CORE REMAINS JUST TO OUR NW.

THAT BRINGS US TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS IN DEVELOPING A
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ON THE OLD COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DEVELOP THE LOW A BIT FURTHER W WITH
EACH RUN...WHICH SPEAKS FAVORABLY TO AN INCREASING TREND IN PRECIP
PROBABILITY. WILL BUMP POP INTO THE CHC RANGE ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE MTNS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT/CLT METRO AREA. OF NOTE IS THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH
IS MUCH FARTHER E AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AND THUS
DISCOUNTED. THE PRECIP TYPE IS THE PROBLEM...AS THE PARTIAL
THICKNESS FROM THE ECMWF IS LOWER AND MORE BORDERLINE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. CONSIDERING A BLEND OF THICKNESS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF...
THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A WARM
NOSE...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SITUATION. IF
THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...THEN WE MUST CONSIDER THE MODEL
DEPICTION OF FREEZING LEVEL REMAINING ABOVE ABOUT 3K FEET AND THE
SFC DEWPOINT BOTTOMING OUT ONLY IN THE MID-30S OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
THAT SIMPLY WILL NOT CUT IT IF WE WANT SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND
OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THAT COMBINED WITH THE MODEL TREND OF MOVING THE
SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER W EACH RUN SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP TYPE IS LIKELY
TO TREND EVEN MORE TOWARD RAIN VERSUS SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
SO...WENT WITH A COLD RAIN. THE MTNS ARE STILL LOOKING LIKE AN
ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW/RAIN DEAL...WITH THE ONLY THING UP IN THE
AIR BEING THE SNOW LEVEL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
WET SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 4K FEET. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE IS TIME FOR SOME PHASING OF SRN
AND NRN STREAM WAVES...WHICH MIGHT TRACK THE SYSTEM SO FAR W SO AS
TO BRING WARMER AIR OVER THE MTNS. WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE HWO
YET BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED SCOPE OF THE SNOW ACCUM POTENTIAL. PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTOGENESIS
LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR NW AND STEEP UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
PATTERN FLATTENING IN THE TROFS WAKE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...THE ECMWF IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE GFS WRT MAINTAINING A MORE
ZONAL UPPER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DO
AMPLIFY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ON SAT/SUN...HOWEVER IT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX.

AT THE SFC...BY 00Z THURS THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT PRETTY QUICKLY
AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A WEAK SECONDARY
OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE MAIN LOW
LIFTS NE AND SOME LINGERING PRECIP IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND I ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. BY FRI...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF TRIES TO
MOVE A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT
AND THE GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR...ONLY ABOUT 24 HRS LATER ON
SUN. THESE SCENARIOS LOOK SUSPICIOUS AND I WOULD NOT PLACE TOO MUCH
FAITH ON THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT OF THE MOISTER RIGHT NOW. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD WITH DAILY VALUES INCREASING
A FEW DEGREES THRU DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CIGS/VISBY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS AREAS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH CONTINUED
IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...ESE/NELY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 02Z MONDAY WHILE PERSISTENT S/SELY LLVL JET SUPPORT LLVL
WIND SHEAR. LLVL JET THEN VEERS TO THE SW BY 02Z MON. HENCE...HAVE
MENTIONED WS020/12040KT AT 18Z AND WS020/20040KT AT AROUND 02Z MON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS AS AREAS OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE. AS THE
SURFACE WEDGE ERODES TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SSW. IFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL THRU MON MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z AS GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP.

ELSEWHERE...TRENDS MUCH LIKE KCLT WITH CONTINUED IFR IN PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDER MAINLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT IN LIGHT OF AREAS OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY PUSHING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WITH STRONG S/SELY LLVL JET PUSHING THROUGH
ATOP THE SURFACE IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...HAVE MENTIONED LLVL WIND
SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS ACCORDINGLY. WIND CHANGES OVERALL ARE SIMILAR
IN PROGRESSION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVL WHICH WILL SEE S/SSE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON-TUE...WITH RAIN
AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLY RETURNING WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH  86%     MED   76%     MED   77%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     MED   66%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH  89%     MED   78%     MED   77%
KAND       HIGH  93%     MED   78%     MED   60%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JOH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 231913
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
213 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM EST SUNDAY UPDATE...LATEST RADAR TREND INDICATES THAT
WIDESPREAD BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN WERE
PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA AS A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT. HENCE...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO 90-100% RANGE FOR ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO...HAVE UPDATED QPF PER LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING
1.5-2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. THE LATEST 12Z NAM CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT PERSISTENT IN-SITU CAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BEFORE
ERODING BY AROUND 00Z-03Z. THEREFORE...SOME DEGREE OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY WILL HAVE BEEN PUSHED FARTHER NORTH INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE FOR THUNDER MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT.

AS OF 640 AM...A LULL IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM UPGLIDE IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CWFA...WITH THE WARM FRONT NOW POSITIONED FROM AROUND MACON GA EAST
TO CHARLESTON. THERE IS SOME MORE INTENSE RAIN FALLING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH MAY BE ROBBING MOISTURE FROM OUR AREA AND ACCOUNTING FOR
THE LULL. NONETHELESS LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS POPS INCREASING
FROM MIDDAY TO LATE AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COMES INTO PLAY. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY THRU MID MRNG DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS OFFSETTING ANY SOLAR
WARMING.

AS OF 315 AM...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. HOWEVER AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS PRECEDED BY A SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER
THE GULF SOUTH...DEEP SW FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION INTO NRN GA AND THE CAROLINAS. INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL RESULT OVER THE CWFA THIS MORNING...AND A BRIEF IN-
SITU CAD EVENT WILL DEVELOP. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO UNDER CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY PTYPE ISSUES EVEN IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS. TO OUR WEST HEIGHTS WILL FALL THRU THE DAY WITH THE
LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM THE GULF COAST TODAY TO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH THE LARGER TROUGH NOT PUSHING
MUCH PAST THE MS RIVER BY THAT TIME. THE LEADING WAVE WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
ERODE THE CAD. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SUGGEST THAT
THE WEDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED AT THE SFC THRU THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...THOUGH VERY SHALLOW.

THE NAM/GFS/SREF ALL INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE WEDGE
INVERSION ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND THIS IS THE PRIMARY
REASON WE WILL INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. A FEW SREF MEMBERS
DO RETREAT THE WEDGE BOUNDARY NWD ENOUGH TO BRING SBCAPE VALUES OF
UNDER 100 J TO ABOUT I-85. EVEN SMALL BUOYANCY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME CONCERN FOR DMGG WIND OR A BRIEF SPIN-UP TOR DUE TO THE
TREMENDOUS SHEAR PARAMETERS THAT WILL BE PRESENT. THIS DUE TO THE
VERY STRONG LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW FORCED BY THE SHORTWAVE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW. DEEP LAYER HODOGRAPHS ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE AND LOOPING...PRODUCING HELICITIES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED M2/S2 AT THEIR PEAK THIS AFTN. EFFECTIVE SRH PLOTS ARE A
MORE MUTED 100-200 M2/S2 ON ACCOUNT OF THE MINIMAL BUOYANCY AT THAT
TIME. BY THE TIME THAT SBCAPES EXHIBIT THEIR SMALL PEAK...THE SHEAR
NUMBERS ARE ALREADY PAST THEIR PRIME. SPC HAS LARGELY CARVED US OUT
OF ANY RISK AREA IN THE DAY 1 GRAPHIC...BUT DID INCLUDE OUR SRNMOST
ZONES IN A 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA...THESE AREAS SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF DESTABILIZING BEFORE THE SHEAR/HELICITY WEAKEN. WE WILL
NONETHELESS BE CLOSELY MONITORING THE CONVECTIVE SITUATION THIS
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE WEDGE FRONT.

WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING HYDROLOGIC THREATS WITH THIS EVENT FOR SEVERAL
DAYS AND THINKING REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME. THE UPGLIDE ITSELF IS NOT
ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE UNTIL THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT ARE AIDED
BY THE SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN OUR RAINFALL RATES WILL
BE GREATEST. OVERALL QPF NUMBERS FROM VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN THE SAME
BALLPARK. THE FAST MOTION OF THE LOW IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR
KEEPING HYDRO THREATS TO A MINIMUM...BUT THE RECENT DRY WEATHER OF
COURSE SUGGESTS SOILS HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH CAPACITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AT
A RATHER DELIBERATE PACE ON MONDAY...LIKELY TAKING A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE DAY BEFORE TO COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO INSIST ON DEVELOPING SOME RATHER SUBSTANTIAL CAPE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. AND WHILE I DO HAVE DOUBTS
THAT THE UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THAT THE NAM IS ADVERTISING WILL BE
REALIZED...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT THAN THAT ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WHICH IS PROBABLY
SWEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TOO QUICKLY. HAVING SAID THAT...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE WARM IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND IT/S NOT
AT ALL CLEAR THAT AIR PARCELS WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THAT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD POPS DOWN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE (FOR SHOWERS)
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WINDS...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER...WITH AS MUCH AS 60 KTS
(!) OF SW FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE BL. WITH ONLY A 4-6 MB SURFACE
GRADIENT ADVERTISED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I DOUBT WE/LL REALIZE
ANYTHING APPROACHING THAT DEGREE OF GUSTINESS. NEVERTHELESS...GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A RETURN TO COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST EQUATION BY TUE NIGHT AND
WED. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF
THE TEXAS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. EACH
MODEL HAS ITS OWN IDEA OF HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE...PARTICULARLY
WITH HOW A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE/POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF
THE TWO STREAMS. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING
THE STREAMS SEPARATED THROUGH WED...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TAKING ON A NEG TILT ORIENTATION...AND INSTIGATING STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT...THEN TRACKING IT
VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FARTHER OFF SHORE AND NOT AS DEEP WITH THE CYCLONE...WHILE
THE NAM DEPICTS NOTHING MORE THAN A WEAK WAVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WED. IT/S ALSO SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE ONLY
A SINGLE SREF MEMBER THAT IS EC-LIKE. NEVERTHELESS...BASED UPON THE
FACT THAT EVEN A GFS SOLUTION DEVELOPS SOME PRECIP INTO OUR EASTERN
ZONES TUE NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOLID CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT BY WED MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCE AS FAR WEST
AS THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES...WITH GENERALLY ALL LIQUID OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE STATED THAT IF THE SITUATION EVOLVES IN AN
ECWMF-LIKE MANNER...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MTNS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR NW AND STEEP UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
PATTERN FLATTENING IN THE TROFS WAKE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...THE ECMWF IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE GFS WRT MAINTAINING A MORE
ZONAL UPPER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DO
AMPLIFY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ON SAT/SUN...HOWEVER IT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX.

AT THE SFC...BY 00Z THURS THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT PRETTY QUICKLY
AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A WEAK SECONDARY
OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE MAIN LOW
LIFTS NE AND SOME LINGERING PRECIP IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND I ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. BY FRI...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF TRIES TO
MOVE A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT
AND THE GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR...ONLY ABOUT 24 HRS LATER ON
SUN. THESE SCENARIOS LOOK SUSPICIOUS AND I WOULD NOT PLACE TOO MUCH
FAITH ON THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT OF THE MOISTER RIGHT NOW. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD WITH DAILY VALUES INCREASING
A FEW DEGREES THRU DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CIGS/VISBY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS AREAS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH CONTINUED
IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...ESE/NELY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 02Z MONDAY WHILE PERSISTENT S/SELY LLVL JET SUPPORT LLVL
WIND SHEAR. LLVL JET THEN VEERS TO THE SW BY 02Z MON. HENCE...HAVE
MENTIONED WS020/12040KT AT 18Z AND WS020/20040KT AT AROUND 02Z MON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS AS AREAS OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE. AS THE
SURFACE WEDGE ERODES TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SSW. IFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL THRU MON MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z AS GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP.

ELSEWHERE...TRENDS MUCH LIKE KCLT WITH CONTINUED IFR IN PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDER MAINLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT IN LIGHT OF AREAS OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY PUSHING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WITH STRONG S/SELY LLVL JET PUSHING THROUGH
ATOP THE SURFACE IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...HAVE MENTIONED LLVL WIND
SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS ACCORDINGLY. WIND CHANGES OVERALL ARE SIMILAR
IN PROGRESSION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVL WHICH WILL SEE S/SSE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON-TUE...WITH RAIN
AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLY RETURNING WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH  86%     MED   76%     MED   77%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     MED   66%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH  89%     MED   78%     MED   77%
KAND       HIGH  93%     MED   78%     MED   60%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 231913
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
213 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LINGER WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM EST SUNDAY UPDATE...LATEST RADAR TREND INDICATES THAT
WIDESPREAD BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN WERE
PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA AS A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT. HENCE...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO 90-100% RANGE FOR ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO...HAVE UPDATED QPF PER LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING
1.5-2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. THE LATEST 12Z NAM CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT PERSISTENT IN-SITU CAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BEFORE
ERODING BY AROUND 00Z-03Z. THEREFORE...SOME DEGREE OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY WILL HAVE BEEN PUSHED FARTHER NORTH INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE FOR THUNDER MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT.

AS OF 640 AM...A LULL IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM UPGLIDE IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CWFA...WITH THE WARM FRONT NOW POSITIONED FROM AROUND MACON GA EAST
TO CHARLESTON. THERE IS SOME MORE INTENSE RAIN FALLING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH MAY BE ROBBING MOISTURE FROM OUR AREA AND ACCOUNTING FOR
THE LULL. NONETHELESS LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS POPS INCREASING
FROM MIDDAY TO LATE AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COMES INTO PLAY. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY THRU MID MRNG DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS OFFSETTING ANY SOLAR
WARMING.

AS OF 315 AM...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. HOWEVER AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS PRECEDED BY A SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER
THE GULF SOUTH...DEEP SW FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION INTO NRN GA AND THE CAROLINAS. INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL RESULT OVER THE CWFA THIS MORNING...AND A BRIEF IN-
SITU CAD EVENT WILL DEVELOP. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO UNDER CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY PTYPE ISSUES EVEN IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS. TO OUR WEST HEIGHTS WILL FALL THRU THE DAY WITH THE
LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM THE GULF COAST TODAY TO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH THE LARGER TROUGH NOT PUSHING
MUCH PAST THE MS RIVER BY THAT TIME. THE LEADING WAVE WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
ERODE THE CAD. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SUGGEST THAT
THE WEDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED AT THE SFC THRU THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...THOUGH VERY SHALLOW.

THE NAM/GFS/SREF ALL INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE WEDGE
INVERSION ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND THIS IS THE PRIMARY
REASON WE WILL INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. A FEW SREF MEMBERS
DO RETREAT THE WEDGE BOUNDARY NWD ENOUGH TO BRING SBCAPE VALUES OF
UNDER 100 J TO ABOUT I-85. EVEN SMALL BUOYANCY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME CONCERN FOR DMGG WIND OR A BRIEF SPIN-UP TOR DUE TO THE
TREMENDOUS SHEAR PARAMETERS THAT WILL BE PRESENT. THIS DUE TO THE
VERY STRONG LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW FORCED BY THE SHORTWAVE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW. DEEP LAYER HODOGRAPHS ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE AND LOOPING...PRODUCING HELICITIES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED M2/S2 AT THEIR PEAK THIS AFTN. EFFECTIVE SRH PLOTS ARE A
MORE MUTED 100-200 M2/S2 ON ACCOUNT OF THE MINIMAL BUOYANCY AT THAT
TIME. BY THE TIME THAT SBCAPES EXHIBIT THEIR SMALL PEAK...THE SHEAR
NUMBERS ARE ALREADY PAST THEIR PRIME. SPC HAS LARGELY CARVED US OUT
OF ANY RISK AREA IN THE DAY 1 GRAPHIC...BUT DID INCLUDE OUR SRNMOST
ZONES IN A 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA...THESE AREAS SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF DESTABILIZING BEFORE THE SHEAR/HELICITY WEAKEN. WE WILL
NONETHELESS BE CLOSELY MONITORING THE CONVECTIVE SITUATION THIS
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE WEDGE FRONT.

WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING HYDROLOGIC THREATS WITH THIS EVENT FOR SEVERAL
DAYS AND THINKING REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME. THE UPGLIDE ITSELF IS NOT
ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE UNTIL THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT ARE AIDED
BY THE SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN OUR RAINFALL RATES WILL
BE GREATEST. OVERALL QPF NUMBERS FROM VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN THE SAME
BALLPARK. THE FAST MOTION OF THE LOW IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR
KEEPING HYDRO THREATS TO A MINIMUM...BUT THE RECENT DRY WEATHER OF
COURSE SUGGESTS SOILS HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH CAPACITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AT
A RATHER DELIBERATE PACE ON MONDAY...LIKELY TAKING A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE DAY BEFORE TO COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO INSIST ON DEVELOPING SOME RATHER SUBSTANTIAL CAPE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. AND WHILE I DO HAVE DOUBTS
THAT THE UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THAT THE NAM IS ADVERTISING WILL BE
REALIZED...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT THAN THAT ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WHICH IS PROBABLY
SWEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TOO QUICKLY. HAVING SAID THAT...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE WARM IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND IT/S NOT
AT ALL CLEAR THAT AIR PARCELS WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THAT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD POPS DOWN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE (FOR SHOWERS)
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WINDS...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER...WITH AS MUCH AS 60 KTS
(!) OF SW FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE BL. WITH ONLY A 4-6 MB SURFACE
GRADIENT ADVERTISED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I DOUBT WE/LL REALIZE
ANYTHING APPROACHING THAT DEGREE OF GUSTINESS. NEVERTHELESS...GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A RETURN TO COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST EQUATION BY TUE NIGHT AND
WED. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF
THE TEXAS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. EACH
MODEL HAS ITS OWN IDEA OF HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE...PARTICULARLY
WITH HOW A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE/POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF
THE TWO STREAMS. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING
THE STREAMS SEPARATED THROUGH WED...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TAKING ON A NEG TILT ORIENTATION...AND INSTIGATING STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT...THEN TRACKING IT
VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FARTHER OFF SHORE AND NOT AS DEEP WITH THE CYCLONE...WHILE
THE NAM DEPICTS NOTHING MORE THAN A WEAK WAVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WED. IT/S ALSO SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE ONLY
A SINGLE SREF MEMBER THAT IS EC-LIKE. NEVERTHELESS...BASED UPON THE
FACT THAT EVEN A GFS SOLUTION DEVELOPS SOME PRECIP INTO OUR EASTERN
ZONES TUE NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOLID CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT BY WED MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCE AS FAR WEST
AS THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES...WITH GENERALLY ALL LIQUID OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE STATED THAT IF THE SITUATION EVOLVES IN AN
ECWMF-LIKE MANNER...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MTNS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR NW AND STEEP UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
PATTERN FLATTENING IN THE TROFS WAKE. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...THE ECMWF IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE GFS WRT MAINTAINING A MORE
ZONAL UPPER PATTERN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DO
AMPLIFY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ON SAT/SUN...HOWEVER IT REMAINS WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX.

AT THE SFC...BY 00Z THURS THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT PRETTY QUICKLY
AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A WEAK SECONDARY
OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE MAIN LOW
LIFTS NE AND SOME LINGERING PRECIP IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND I ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. BY FRI...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF TRIES TO
MOVE A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW ON SAT
AND THE GFS DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR...ONLY ABOUT 24 HRS LATER ON
SUN. THESE SCENARIOS LOOK SUSPICIOUS AND I WOULD NOT PLACE TOO MUCH
FAITH ON THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT OF THE MOISTER RIGHT NOW. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD WITH DAILY VALUES INCREASING
A FEW DEGREES THRU DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CIGS/VISBY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS AREAS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH CONTINUED
IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...ESE/NELY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 02Z MONDAY WHILE PERSISTENT S/SELY LLVL JET SUPPORT LLVL
WIND SHEAR. LLVL JET THEN VEERS TO THE SW BY 02Z MON. HENCE...HAVE
MENTIONED WS020/12040KT AT 18Z AND WS020/20040KT AT AROUND 02Z MON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS AS AREAS OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE. AS THE
SURFACE WEDGE ERODES TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SSW. IFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL THRU MON MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z AS GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP.

ELSEWHERE...TRENDS MUCH LIKE KCLT WITH CONTINUED IFR IN PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDER MAINLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT IN LIGHT OF AREAS OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY PUSHING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WITH STRONG S/SELY LLVL JET PUSHING THROUGH
ATOP THE SURFACE IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...HAVE MENTIONED LLVL WIND
SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS ACCORDINGLY. WIND CHANGES OVERALL ARE SIMILAR
IN PROGRESSION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVL WHICH WILL SEE S/SSE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON-TUE...WITH RAIN
AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLY RETURNING WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH  86%     MED   76%     MED   77%
KAVL       HIGH  85%     MED   66%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       HIGH  94%     HIGH  89%     MED   78%     MED   77%
KAND       HIGH  93%     MED   78%     MED   60%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231805
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
105 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM EST SUNDAY UPDATE...LATEST RADAR TREND INDICATES THAT
WIDESPREAD BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN WERE
PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA AS A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT. HENCE...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO 90-100% RANGE FOR ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO...HAVE UPDATED QPF PER LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING
1.5-2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. THE LATEST 12Z NAM CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT PERSISTENT IN-SITU CAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BEFORE
ERODING BY AROUND 00Z-03Z. THEREFORE...SOME DEGREE OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY WILL HAVE BEEN PUSHED FARTHER NORTH INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE FOR THUNDER MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT.

AS OF 640 AM...A LULL IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM UPGLIDE IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CWFA...WITH THE WARM FRONT NOW POSITIONED FROM AROUND MACON GA EAST
TO CHARLESTON. THERE IS SOME MORE INTENSE RAIN FALLING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH MAY BE ROBBING MOISTURE FROM OUR AREA AND ACCOUNTING FOR
THE LULL. NONETHELESS LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS POPS INCREASING
FROM MIDDAY TO LATE AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COMES INTO PLAY. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY THRU MID MRNG DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS OFFSETTING ANY SOLAR
WARMING.

AS OF 315 AM...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. HOWEVER AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS PRECEDED BY A SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER
THE GULF SOUTH...DEEP SW FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION INTO NRN GA AND THE CAROLINAS. INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL RESULT OVER THE CWFA THIS MORNING...AND A BRIEF IN-
SITU CAD EVENT WILL DEVELOP. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO UNDER CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY PTYPE ISSUES EVEN IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS. TO OUR WEST HEIGHTS WILL FALL THRU THE DAY WITH THE
LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM THE GULF COAST TODAY TO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH THE LARGER TROUGH NOT PUSHING
MUCH PAST THE MS RIVER BY THAT TIME. THE LEADING WAVE WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
ERODE THE CAD. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SUGGEST THAT
THE WEDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED AT THE SFC THRU THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...THOUGH VERY SHALLOW.

THE NAM/GFS/SREF ALL INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE WEDGE
INVERSION ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND THIS IS THE PRIMARY
REASON WE WILL INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. A FEW SREF MEMBERS
DO RETREAT THE WEDGE BOUNDARY NWD ENOUGH TO BRING SBCAPE VALUES OF
UNDER 100 J TO ABOUT I-85. EVEN SMALL BUOYANCY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME CONCERN FOR DMGG WIND OR A BRIEF SPIN-UP TOR DUE TO THE
TREMENDOUS SHEAR PARAMETERS THAT WILL BE PRESENT. THIS DUE TO THE
VERY STRONG LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW FORCED BY THE SHORTWAVE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW. DEEP LAYER HODOGRAPHS ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE AND LOOPING...PRODUCING HELICITIES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED M2/S2 AT THEIR PEAK THIS AFTN. EFFECTIVE SRH PLOTS ARE A
MORE MUTED 100-200 M2/S2 ON ACCOUNT OF THE MINIMAL BUOYANCY AT THAT
TIME. BY THE TIME THAT SBCAPES EXHIBIT THEIR SMALL PEAK...THE SHEAR
NUMBERS ARE ALREADY PAST THEIR PRIME. SPC HAS LARGELY CARVED US OUT
OF ANY RISK AREA IN THE DAY 1 GRAPHIC...BUT DID INCLUDE OUR SRNMOST
ZONES IN A 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA...THESE AREAS SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF DESTABILIZING BEFORE THE SHEAR/HELICITY WEAKEN. WE WILL
NONETHELESS BE CLOSELY MONITORING THE CONVECTIVE SITUATION THIS
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE WEDGE FRONT.

WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING HYDROLOGIC THREATS WITH THIS EVENT FOR SEVERAL
DAYS AND THINKING REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME. THE UPGLIDE ITSELF IS NOT
ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE UNTIL THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT ARE AIDED
BY THE SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN OUR RAINFALL RATES WILL
BE GREATEST. OVERALL QPF NUMBERS FROM VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN THE SAME
BALLPARK. THE FAST MOTION OF THE LOW IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR
KEEPING HYDRO THREATS TO A MINIMUM...BUT THE RECENT DRY WEATHER OF
COURSE SUGGESTS SOILS HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH CAPACITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AT
A RATHER DELIBERATE PACE ON MONDAY...LIKELY TAKING A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE DAY BEFORE TO COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO INSIST ON DEVELOPING SOME RATHER SUBSTANTIAL CAPE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. AND WHILE I DO HAVE DOUBTS
THAT THE UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THAT THE NAM IS ADVERTISING WILL BE
REALIZED...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT THAN THAT ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WHICH IS PROBABLY
SWEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TOO QUICKLY. HAVING SAID THAT...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE WARM IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND IT/S NOT
AT ALL CLEAR THAT AIR PARCELS WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THAT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD POPS DOWN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE (FOR SHOWERS)
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WINDS...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER...WITH AS MUCH AS 60 KTS
(!) OF SW FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE BL. WITH ONLY A 4-6 MB SURFACE
GRADIENT ADVERTISED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I DOUBT WE/LL REALIZE
ANYTHING APPROACHING THAT DEGREE OF GUSTINESS. NEVERTHELESS...GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A RETURN TO COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST EQUATION BY TUE NIGHT AND
WED. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF
THE TEXAS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. EACH
MODEL HAS ITS OWN IDEA OF HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE...PARTICULARLY
WITH HOW A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE/POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF
THE TWO STREAMS. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING
THE STREAMS SEPARATED THROUGH WED...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TAKING ON A NEG TILT ORIENTATION...AND INSTIGATING STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT...THEN TRACKING IT
VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FARTHER OFF SHORE AND NOT AS DEEP WITH THE CYCLONE...WHILE
THE NAM DEPICTS NOTHING MORE THAN A WEAK WAVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WED. IT/S ALSO SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE ONLY
A SINGLE SREF MEMBER THAT IS EC-LIKE. NEVERTHELESS...BASED UPON THE
FACT THAT EVEN A GFS SOLUTION DEVELOPS SOME PRECIP INTO OUR EASTERN
ZONES TUE NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOLID CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT BY WED MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCE AS FAR WEST
AS THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES...WITH GENERALLY ALL LIQUID OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE STATED THAT IF THE SITUATION EVOLVES IN AN
ECWMF-LIKE MANNER...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MTNS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM...THE MEDIUM RANGE APPEARS LARGELY COOL...DRY...AND
UNEVENTFUL...AS A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...IT IS
NOT AT ALL CLEAR IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
PRECIP CHANCES OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CIGS/VISBY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS AREAS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH CONTINUED
IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...ESE/NELY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 02Z SUNDAY WHILE PERSISTENT S/SELY LLVL JET SUPPORT LLVL
WIND SHEAR. LLVL JET THEN VEERS TO THE SW BY 02Z SUN. HENCE...HAVE
MENTIONED WS020/12040KT AT 18Z AND WS020/20040KT AT AROUND 02Z SUN.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS AS AREAS OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE. AS THE
SURFACE WEDGE ERODES TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SSW. IFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL THRU SUN MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z AS GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP.

ELSEWHERE...TRENDS MUCH LIKE KCLT WITH CONTINUED IFR IN PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDER MAINLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT IN LIGHT OF AREAS OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY PUSHING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WITH STRONG S/SELY LLVL JET PUSHING THROUGH
ATOP THE SURFACE IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...HAVE MENTIONED LLVL WIND
SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS ACCORDINGLY. WIND CHANGES OVERALL ARE SIMILAR
IN PROGRESSION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVL WHICH WILL SEE S/SSE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON-TUE...WITH RAIN
AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLY RETURNING WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     MED   77%     MED   76%
KAVL       HIGH  84%     MED   68%     MED   77%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  88%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  80%     MED   76%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH  80%     MED   61%     MED   71%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 231805
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
105 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM EST SUNDAY UPDATE...LATEST RADAR TREND INDICATES THAT
WIDESPREAD BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN WERE
PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA AS A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT. HENCE...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO 90-100% RANGE FOR ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO...HAVE UPDATED QPF PER LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING
1.5-2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. THE LATEST 12Z NAM CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT PERSISTENT IN-SITU CAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BEFORE
ERODING BY AROUND 00Z-03Z. THEREFORE...SOME DEGREE OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY WILL HAVE BEEN PUSHED FARTHER NORTH INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE FOR THUNDER MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT.

AS OF 640 AM...A LULL IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM UPGLIDE IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CWFA...WITH THE WARM FRONT NOW POSITIONED FROM AROUND MACON GA EAST
TO CHARLESTON. THERE IS SOME MORE INTENSE RAIN FALLING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH MAY BE ROBBING MOISTURE FROM OUR AREA AND ACCOUNTING FOR
THE LULL. NONETHELESS LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS POPS INCREASING
FROM MIDDAY TO LATE AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COMES INTO PLAY. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY THRU MID MRNG DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS OFFSETTING ANY SOLAR
WARMING.

AS OF 315 AM...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. HOWEVER AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS PRECEDED BY A SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER
THE GULF SOUTH...DEEP SW FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION INTO NRN GA AND THE CAROLINAS. INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL RESULT OVER THE CWFA THIS MORNING...AND A BRIEF IN-
SITU CAD EVENT WILL DEVELOP. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO UNDER CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY PTYPE ISSUES EVEN IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS. TO OUR WEST HEIGHTS WILL FALL THRU THE DAY WITH THE
LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM THE GULF COAST TODAY TO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH THE LARGER TROUGH NOT PUSHING
MUCH PAST THE MS RIVER BY THAT TIME. THE LEADING WAVE WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
ERODE THE CAD. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SUGGEST THAT
THE WEDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED AT THE SFC THRU THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...THOUGH VERY SHALLOW.

THE NAM/GFS/SREF ALL INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE WEDGE
INVERSION ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND THIS IS THE PRIMARY
REASON WE WILL INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. A FEW SREF MEMBERS
DO RETREAT THE WEDGE BOUNDARY NWD ENOUGH TO BRING SBCAPE VALUES OF
UNDER 100 J TO ABOUT I-85. EVEN SMALL BUOYANCY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME CONCERN FOR DMGG WIND OR A BRIEF SPIN-UP TOR DUE TO THE
TREMENDOUS SHEAR PARAMETERS THAT WILL BE PRESENT. THIS DUE TO THE
VERY STRONG LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW FORCED BY THE SHORTWAVE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW. DEEP LAYER HODOGRAPHS ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE AND LOOPING...PRODUCING HELICITIES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED M2/S2 AT THEIR PEAK THIS AFTN. EFFECTIVE SRH PLOTS ARE A
MORE MUTED 100-200 M2/S2 ON ACCOUNT OF THE MINIMAL BUOYANCY AT THAT
TIME. BY THE TIME THAT SBCAPES EXHIBIT THEIR SMALL PEAK...THE SHEAR
NUMBERS ARE ALREADY PAST THEIR PRIME. SPC HAS LARGELY CARVED US OUT
OF ANY RISK AREA IN THE DAY 1 GRAPHIC...BUT DID INCLUDE OUR SRNMOST
ZONES IN A 5 PERCENT WIND THREAT AREA...THESE AREAS SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF DESTABILIZING BEFORE THE SHEAR/HELICITY WEAKEN. WE WILL
NONETHELESS BE CLOSELY MONITORING THE CONVECTIVE SITUATION THIS
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE WEDGE FRONT.

WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING HYDROLOGIC THREATS WITH THIS EVENT FOR SEVERAL
DAYS AND THINKING REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME. THE UPGLIDE ITSELF IS NOT
ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE UNTIL THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT ARE AIDED
BY THE SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN OUR RAINFALL RATES WILL
BE GREATEST. OVERALL QPF NUMBERS FROM VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN THE SAME
BALLPARK. THE FAST MOTION OF THE LOW IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR
KEEPING HYDRO THREATS TO A MINIMUM...BUT THE RECENT DRY WEATHER OF
COURSE SUGGESTS SOILS HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH CAPACITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AT
A RATHER DELIBERATE PACE ON MONDAY...LIKELY TAKING A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE DAY BEFORE TO COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO INSIST ON DEVELOPING SOME RATHER SUBSTANTIAL CAPE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. AND WHILE I DO HAVE DOUBTS
THAT THE UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THAT THE NAM IS ADVERTISING WILL BE
REALIZED...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT THAN THAT ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WHICH IS PROBABLY
SWEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TOO QUICKLY. HAVING SAID THAT...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE WARM IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND IT/S NOT
AT ALL CLEAR THAT AIR PARCELS WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THAT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD POPS DOWN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE (FOR SHOWERS)
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WINDS...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER...WITH AS MUCH AS 60 KTS
(!) OF SW FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE BL. WITH ONLY A 4-6 MB SURFACE
GRADIENT ADVERTISED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I DOUBT WE/LL REALIZE
ANYTHING APPROACHING THAT DEGREE OF GUSTINESS. NEVERTHELESS...GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A RETURN TO COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST EQUATION BY TUE NIGHT AND
WED. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF
THE TEXAS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. EACH
MODEL HAS ITS OWN IDEA OF HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE...PARTICULARLY
WITH HOW A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE/POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF
THE TWO STREAMS. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING
THE STREAMS SEPARATED THROUGH WED...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TAKING ON A NEG TILT ORIENTATION...AND INSTIGATING STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT...THEN TRACKING IT
VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FARTHER OFF SHORE AND NOT AS DEEP WITH THE CYCLONE...WHILE
THE NAM DEPICTS NOTHING MORE THAN A WEAK WAVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WED. IT/S ALSO SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE ONLY
A SINGLE SREF MEMBER THAT IS EC-LIKE. NEVERTHELESS...BASED UPON THE
FACT THAT EVEN A GFS SOLUTION DEVELOPS SOME PRECIP INTO OUR EASTERN
ZONES TUE NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOLID CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT BY WED MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCE AS FAR WEST
AS THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES...WITH GENERALLY ALL LIQUID OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE STATED THAT IF THE SITUATION EVOLVES IN AN
ECWMF-LIKE MANNER...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MTNS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM...THE MEDIUM RANGE APPEARS LARGELY COOL...DRY...AND
UNEVENTFUL...AS A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...IT IS
NOT AT ALL CLEAR IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
PRECIP CHANCES OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CIGS/VISBY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS AREAS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH CONTINUED
IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...ESE/NELY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 02Z SUNDAY WHILE PERSISTENT S/SELY LLVL JET SUPPORT LLVL
WIND SHEAR. LLVL JET THEN VEERS TO THE SW BY 02Z SUN. HENCE...HAVE
MENTIONED WS020/12040KT AT 18Z AND WS020/20040KT AT AROUND 02Z SUN.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS AS AREAS OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE. AS THE
SURFACE WEDGE ERODES TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SSW. IFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL THRU SUN MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z AS GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP.

ELSEWHERE...TRENDS MUCH LIKE KCLT WITH CONTINUED IFR IN PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDER MAINLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT IN LIGHT OF AREAS OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY PUSHING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WITH STRONG S/SELY LLVL JET PUSHING THROUGH
ATOP THE SURFACE IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING...HAVE MENTIONED LLVL WIND
SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS ACCORDINGLY. WIND CHANGES OVERALL ARE SIMILAR
IN PROGRESSION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVL WHICH WILL SEE S/SSE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MON-TUE...WITH RAIN
AND/OR WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLY RETURNING WED. MORE SETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH  87%     MED   77%     MED   76%
KAVL       HIGH  84%     MED   68%     MED   77%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  88%
KGMU       HIGH  95%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  80%     MED   76%
KAND       HIGH  93%     HIGH  80%     MED   61%     MED   71%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JOH





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