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000
FXUS62 KGSP 300609
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
109 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO
THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...A LOW-MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK /NOT WELL HANDLED BY
GUIDANCE/ HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO ELEVATED MOISTURE
IN THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. A POCKET OF STRONGER
RADAR RETURNS FROM PRECIP ENCOUNTERING THE MTNS OF EAST TN HAS NOW
EVIDENTLY PUSHED INTO THE MTNS LEAVING MAINLY NW FLOW PRECIP. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY FALLING FROM THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
AREA OF WNC WITH FLEETING VERY LIGHT RETURNS. TRENDS SUGGEST THESE
WON/T MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST EVEN AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS.
TEMPS ARE REMAINING STEADY OR EVEN WARMING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH HAS SEEMINGLY SLOWED NOCTURNALLY. IT IS STILL PROGGED
TO EXIT THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. REVISED HRLY TEMPS OVERNIGHT BUT
MAY NOT HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THE CLOUD COVER ENOUGH. DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY ERODE IT BUT THAT MAY TAKE SOME TIME. RAPID
COOLING IS LIKELY ONCE WINDS FLIP AND SKIES CLEAR.

AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD
BE A DOMINANT P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST
CHANCE OF NW SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER
FORCING...MOIST LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN
STRONG CAA NW UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF
CAMPOP AND OTHER GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG
THE TN LINE WITH SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS. HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND
LESS FAVORING H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN
2 INCHES WHICH IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NC MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN
LINE TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FROPA WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS AM...BUT
ALREADY SEEMS A LITTLE TOO FAST WITH TIMING OF WSHFT. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST OF THE MTNS IN DOWNSLOPING FLOW
ALOFT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO FAVOR NWLY AFTER 08Z WITH SOLIDLY NW
WINDS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL A LITTLE LATER. A MIDLEVEL CIG WILL LIKELY
PERSIST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE UNLESS DOWNSLOPING IS MORE EFFECTIVE
THAN ANTICIPATED. NW WINDS WITH FREQUENT LOW-END GUSTS AS SOON AS
MIXING BEGINS TODAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A COUPLE GUSTS TO NEAR 30KT
THOUGH. GENERALLY CALMER AND CONTINUED CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SFC CONDS.

ELSEWHERE...A LOW VFR CIG WILL PERSIST THRU THE EARLY AM DUE TO
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LIFT FROM FROPA. NW FLOW WILL DRIVE
MTN PRECIP ALONG THE TENN BORDER. PCPN CHANCES AT KAVL ARE TOO LOW
TO MENTION BUT SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES COULD OCCUR.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF EARLIER EXPECTATION OF AN MVFR CIG AT KAVL
BUT A FEW CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL ARE LIKELY TO BE SEEN. WSHFT TO NW
WILL OCCUR POST FROPA GENERALLY IN THE 08-10Z TIMEFRAME WITH THE
CIGS SCOURING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH CIGS MAY NOT CLEAR
COMPLETELY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20-25KT ACRS MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTN...WITH THE MTNS GUSTING HIGHER. KAVL MIGHT
SEE SOME GUSTS OF 30-35KT. INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO REMAIN MCLR.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MOISTURE THEN BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS.
DRYING IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  88%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 300609
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
109 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO
THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...A LOW-MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK /NOT WELL HANDLED BY
GUIDANCE/ HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO ELEVATED MOISTURE
IN THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. A POCKET OF STRONGER
RADAR RETURNS FROM PRECIP ENCOUNTERING THE MTNS OF EAST TN HAS NOW
EVIDENTLY PUSHED INTO THE MTNS LEAVING MAINLY NW FLOW PRECIP. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY FALLING FROM THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
AREA OF WNC WITH FLEETING VERY LIGHT RETURNS. TRENDS SUGGEST THESE
WON/T MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST EVEN AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS.
TEMPS ARE REMAINING STEADY OR EVEN WARMING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH HAS SEEMINGLY SLOWED NOCTURNALLY. IT IS STILL PROGGED
TO EXIT THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. REVISED HRLY TEMPS OVERNIGHT BUT
MAY NOT HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THE CLOUD COVER ENOUGH. DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY ERODE IT BUT THAT MAY TAKE SOME TIME. RAPID
COOLING IS LIKELY ONCE WINDS FLIP AND SKIES CLEAR.

AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD
BE A DOMINANT P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST
CHANCE OF NW SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER
FORCING...MOIST LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN
STRONG CAA NW UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF
CAMPOP AND OTHER GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG
THE TN LINE WITH SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS. HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND
LESS FAVORING H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN
2 INCHES WHICH IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NC MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN
LINE TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FROPA WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS AM...BUT
ALREADY SEEMS A LITTLE TOO FAST WITH TIMING OF WSHFT. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST OF THE MTNS IN DOWNSLOPING FLOW
ALOFT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO FAVOR NWLY AFTER 08Z WITH SOLIDLY NW
WINDS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL A LITTLE LATER. A MIDLEVEL CIG WILL LIKELY
PERSIST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE UNLESS DOWNSLOPING IS MORE EFFECTIVE
THAN ANTICIPATED. NW WINDS WITH FREQUENT LOW-END GUSTS AS SOON AS
MIXING BEGINS TODAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A COUPLE GUSTS TO NEAR 30KT
THOUGH. GENERALLY CALMER AND CONTINUED CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SFC CONDS.

ELSEWHERE...A LOW VFR CIG WILL PERSIST THRU THE EARLY AM DUE TO
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LIFT FROM FROPA. NW FLOW WILL DRIVE
MTN PRECIP ALONG THE TENN BORDER. PCPN CHANCES AT KAVL ARE TOO LOW
TO MENTION BUT SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES COULD OCCUR.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF EARLIER EXPECTATION OF AN MVFR CIG AT KAVL
BUT A FEW CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL ARE LIKELY TO BE SEEN. WSHFT TO NW
WILL OCCUR POST FROPA GENERALLY IN THE 08-10Z TIMEFRAME WITH THE
CIGS SCOURING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH CIGS MAY NOT CLEAR
COMPLETELY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20-25KT ACRS MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTN...WITH THE MTNS GUSTING HIGHER. KAVL MIGHT
SEE SOME GUSTS OF 30-35KT. INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO REMAIN MCLR.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MOISTURE THEN BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS.
DRYING IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  88%     LOW   56%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 300310
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1010 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM...PRECIP IS SLOW TO GET GOING UPSTREAM ACRS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ONCE THE MOISTURE REACHES THE
MTNS...THERE SHUD BE A QUICK INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE TN/NC
BORDER STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT. I TWEAKED THE POP TRENDS TO DELAY
ONSET...BUT STILL ALLOW TO RAMP UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN LESS SNOW ACCUM...BUT THE SPS SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT STILL LOOKS GOOD. THE WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS ANALYZED CROSSING THE GREAT TN
VALLEY. THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN A LITTLE LOWER ON WINDS...BUT
AGAIN...THINK THE FCST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WIND ADV LEVEL GUSTS
ACRS THE NRN MTNS THRU MIDDAY FRIDAY. SO NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
WIND ADV. THE REST OF THE AREA SHUD SEE WINDS SHIFT TO NW
OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS ALSO
LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 645 PM...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
SKY GRIDS TO LINE UP WITH LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND METARS.

AS OF 430 PM...TWEAKED POPS TO REMOVE MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTN...AS RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SHWRS EXITING TO THE EAST...WITH NO
RETURNS SEEN UPSTREAM ATTM. A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SHWRS ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND INCREASE. THE REST
OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A RATHER
FAST MOVING LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WAS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. THERE HAVE
BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET AS THIS BAND MOVED
ACROSS THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DUE TO WET-BULB
COOLING EFFECT. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE BAND WAS PUSHING EASTWARD. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD BE A DOMINANT
P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF NW
SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER FORCING...MOIST
LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN STRONG CAA NW
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF CAMPOP AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG THE TN LINE WITH
SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND LESS FAVORING
H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES WHICH
IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW WINDS OF
45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN LINE
TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. PERIODS OF GENERALLY MID CLOUD CIGS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH FCST SNDGS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AROUND 4000-5000
FT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING BELOW VFR. THE BL IS VERY DRY...SO NO FOG
IS EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL START OUT SW GENERALLY 6-8 KTS...THEN
SHIFT TO NW 6-8 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 08Z. THEN ONCE DEEPER
MIXING DEVELOPS...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY BKN-OVC MID CLOUD
DECK...WITH SW WINDS THRU THIS EVENING ACRS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
VEER TO NW OVERNIGHT...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING. AS USUAL...STRONGEST
AT KAVL...AND WEAKEST ACRS THE UPSTATE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JOH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 300310
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1010 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM...PRECIP IS SLOW TO GET GOING UPSTREAM ACRS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ONCE THE MOISTURE REACHES THE
MTNS...THERE SHUD BE A QUICK INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE TN/NC
BORDER STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT. I TWEAKED THE POP TRENDS TO DELAY
ONSET...BUT STILL ALLOW TO RAMP UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN LESS SNOW ACCUM...BUT THE SPS SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT STILL LOOKS GOOD. THE WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS ANALYZED CROSSING THE GREAT TN
VALLEY. THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN A LITTLE LOWER ON WINDS...BUT
AGAIN...THINK THE FCST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WIND ADV LEVEL GUSTS
ACRS THE NRN MTNS THRU MIDDAY FRIDAY. SO NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
WIND ADV. THE REST OF THE AREA SHUD SEE WINDS SHIFT TO NW
OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS ALSO
LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 645 PM...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
SKY GRIDS TO LINE UP WITH LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND METARS.

AS OF 430 PM...TWEAKED POPS TO REMOVE MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTN...AS RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SHWRS EXITING TO THE EAST...WITH NO
RETURNS SEEN UPSTREAM ATTM. A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SHWRS ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND INCREASE. THE REST
OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A RATHER
FAST MOVING LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WAS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. THERE HAVE
BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET AS THIS BAND MOVED
ACROSS THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DUE TO WET-BULB
COOLING EFFECT. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE BAND WAS PUSHING EASTWARD. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD BE A DOMINANT
P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF NW
SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER FORCING...MOIST
LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN STRONG CAA NW
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF CAMPOP AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG THE TN LINE WITH
SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND LESS FAVORING
H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES WHICH
IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW WINDS OF
45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN LINE
TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. PERIODS OF GENERALLY MID CLOUD CIGS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH FCST SNDGS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AROUND 4000-5000
FT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING BELOW VFR. THE BL IS VERY DRY...SO NO FOG
IS EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL START OUT SW GENERALLY 6-8 KTS...THEN
SHIFT TO NW 6-8 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 08Z. THEN ONCE DEEPER
MIXING DEVELOPS...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY BKN-OVC MID CLOUD
DECK...WITH SW WINDS THRU THIS EVENING ACRS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
VEER TO NW OVERNIGHT...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING. AS USUAL...STRONGEST
AT KAVL...AND WEAKEST ACRS THE UPSTATE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-
     050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JOH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 292351
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
SKY GRIDS TO LINE UP WITH LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND METARS.

AS OF 430 PM...TWEAKED POPS TO REMOVE MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTN...AS RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SHWRS EXITING TO THE EAST...WITH NO
RETURNS SEEN UPSTREAM ATTM. A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SHWRS ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND INCREASE. THE REST
OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A RATHER
FAST MOVING LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WAS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. THERE HAVE
BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET AS THIS BAND MOVED
ACROSS THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DUE TO WET-BULB
COOLING EFFECT. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE BAND WAS PUSHING EASTWARD. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD BE A DOMINANT
P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF NW
SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER FORCING...MOIST
LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN STRONG CAA NW
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF CAMPOP AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG THE TN LINE WITH
SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND LESS FAVORING
H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES WHICH
IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW WINDS OF
45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN LINE
TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. PERIODS OF GENERALLY MID CLOUD CIGS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH FCST SNDGS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AROUND 4000-5000
FT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING BELOW VFR. THE BL IS VERY DRY...SO NO FOG
IS EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL START OUT SW GENERALLY 6-8 KTS...THEN
SHIFT TO NW 6-8 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 08Z. THEN ONCE DEEPER
MIXING DEVELOPS...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY BKN-OVC MID CLOUD
DECK...WITH SW WINDS THRU THIS EVENING ACRS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
VEER TO NW OVERNIGHT...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING. AS USUAL...STRONGEST
AT KAVL...AND WEAKEST ACRS THE UPSTATE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JOH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 292351
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
SKY GRIDS TO LINE UP WITH LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND METARS.

AS OF 430 PM...TWEAKED POPS TO REMOVE MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTN...AS RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SHWRS EXITING TO THE EAST...WITH NO
RETURNS SEEN UPSTREAM ATTM. A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SHWRS ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND INCREASE. THE REST
OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A RATHER
FAST MOVING LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WAS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. THERE HAVE
BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET AS THIS BAND MOVED
ACROSS THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DUE TO WET-BULB
COOLING EFFECT. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE BAND WAS PUSHING EASTWARD. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD BE A DOMINANT
P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF NW
SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER FORCING...MOIST
LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN STRONG CAA NW
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF CAMPOP AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG THE TN LINE WITH
SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND LESS FAVORING
H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES WHICH
IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW WINDS OF
45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN LINE
TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. PERIODS OF GENERALLY MID CLOUD CIGS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH FCST SNDGS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AROUND 4000-5000
FT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING BELOW VFR. THE BL IS VERY DRY...SO NO FOG
IS EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL START OUT SW GENERALLY 6-8 KTS...THEN
SHIFT TO NW 6-8 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 08Z. THEN ONCE DEEPER
MIXING DEVELOPS...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KAVL...WHERE MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY BKN-OVC MID CLOUD
DECK...WITH SW WINDS THRU THIS EVENING ACRS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
VEER TO NW OVERNIGHT...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING. AS USUAL...STRONGEST
AT KAVL...AND WEAKEST ACRS THE UPSTATE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JOH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 292143
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...TWEAKED POPS TO REMOVE MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTN...AS RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SHWRS EXITING TO THE EAST...WITH NO
RETURNS SEEN UPSTREAM ATTM. A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SHWRS ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND INCREASE. THE REST
OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A RATHER
FAST MOVING LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WAS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. THERE HAVE
BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET AS THIS BAND MOVED
ACROSS THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DUE TO WET-BULB
COOLING EFFECT. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE BAND WAS PUSHING EASTWARD. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD BE A DOMINANT
P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF NW
SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER FORCING...MOIST
LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN STRONG CAA NW
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF CAMPOP AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG THE TN LINE WITH
SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND LESS FAVORING
H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES WHICH
IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW WINDS OF
45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN LINE
TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. A
LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS
THE NC MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST MESO-MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT ENTERS THE
NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN THE TAF. SW WINDS SHOULD PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-20KTS POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SW WINDS
SHOULD TO VEER TO THE NW AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. AS SURFACE PRESSURE TIGHTENS UP BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 15-20KTS WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 15Z. CLOUD CIGS WILL BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 8K FT DURING THE FROPA TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT DUE TO THE FROPA. A LIGHT BAND
OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE MTNS. HENCE...NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN KAVL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SW
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL VEER THE NW TONIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     LOW   59%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JOH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 292027
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A RATHER
FAST MOVING LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WAS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. THERE HAVE
BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET AS THIS BAND MOVED
ACROSS THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DUE TO WET-BULB
COOLING EFFECT. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE BAND WAS PUSHING EASTWARD. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD BE A DOMINANT
P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF NW
SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER FORCING...MOIST
LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN STRONG CAA NW
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF CAMPOP AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG THE TN LINE WITH
SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND LESS FAVORING
H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES WHICH
IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW WINDS OF
45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN LINE
TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. A
LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS
THE NC MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST MESO-MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT ENTERS THE
NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN THE TAF. SW WINDS SHOULD PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-20KTS POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SW WINDS
SHOULD TO VEER TO THE NW AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. AS SURFACE PRESSURE TIGHTENS UP BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 15-20KTS WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 15Z. CLOUD CIGS WILL BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 8K FT DURING THE FROPA TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT DUE TO THE FROPA. A LIGHT BAND
OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE MTNS. HENCE...NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN KAVL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SW
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL VEER THE NW TONIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  80%     LOW   58%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JOH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 292027
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A RATHER
FAST MOVING LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE WAS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. THERE HAVE
BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET AS THIS BAND MOVED
ACROSS THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT DUE TO WET-BULB
COOLING EFFECT. HENCE...HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE BAND WAS PUSHING EASTWARD. AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING...SNOW SHOULD BE A DOMINANT
P-TYPE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF NW
SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3Z-12Z WHEN THE BEST UPPER FORCING...MOIST
LLVL LAYER (SURFACE TO 700MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN STRONG CAA NW
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...USING A BLEND OF CAMPOP AND OTHER
GUIDANCE...CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MENTIONED ALONG THE TN LINE WITH
SOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF SNOW AND LESS FAVORING
H85 WSWLY WINDS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES WHICH
IS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO NO WSW WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG CAA NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
MTNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTY NW WINDS OF
45-50MPH WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ALONG THE TN LINE
TOWARD FRI MIDDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
AROUND NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRI WILL STAY
5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE MTNS/VALLEYS WITH 2-3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST TRENDS IMPROVING FOR THE WEEKEND
WEATHER. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...NOW ARRIVING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ONSET
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z TO 0Z. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. I WILL INDICATE IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LITTLE TO NO ACCUM BEFORE 0Z MON.
SUN HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO
AROUND 50 EAST OF I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTER FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE DETAILS
AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WX. A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FLAT TROF IN PLACE ON TUE. AN UPPER LOW THAT STARTS
THE PERIOD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA WED OR WED NITE WITH SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE TROF AT THAT SAME TIME. THE WAVE THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NE TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES EAST NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENUF FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...THEN FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TOWARD DAYBREAK
MON. PRECIP ENDS AS A BRIEF NW FLOW SNOW MON AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGH ENUF FOR A HIGH END ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND A LOW END ADVISORY IN THE VALLEYS FROM HAYWOOD NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPS REMAINING QUESTION AS THE COOLING COULD BE
DELAYED DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MON NITE
AND TUE. TEMPS MON NITE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUE.

THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE WED TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER AND HAS A MORE COHERENT MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW...WHILE THE
GFS IS SLOWER AND HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE
AREA WITH A LOW IN QUEBEC AND A WEAKER MILLER A FARTHER SOUTH IN THE
GULF. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING. IF THE PRECIP MOVED IN
FAST ENUF AND OUT SLOW ENUF...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS AT ONSET AND BEFORE DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS SUB-
ADVISORY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM TUE NITE THRU
THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. A
LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS
THE NC MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST MESO-MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT ENTERS THE
NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN THE TAF. SW WINDS SHOULD PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-20KTS POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SW WINDS
SHOULD TO VEER TO THE NW AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. AS SURFACE PRESSURE TIGHTENS UP BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 15-20KTS WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 15Z. CLOUD CIGS WILL BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 8K FT DURING THE FROPA TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT DUE TO THE FROPA. A LIGHT BAND
OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE MTNS. HENCE...NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN KAVL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SW
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL VEER THE NW TONIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  80%     LOW   58%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JOH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291758
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM EST UPDATE...LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS WERE HANDLING WELL
WITH THE BAND OF PRECIP CROSSING THE NC MTNS ZONES AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HENCE...HAVE BLENDED WITH THE CAMPOP FEATURING LIKELY
POPS OVER THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO...HAVE CARRIED A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/VALLEYS
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO WARM UP ABOVE 40S.

1000 EST THURSDAY UPDATE...LATEST SURROUNDING REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A
BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM
THE TN VALLEY AS OF THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES BETWEEN 16-18Z AND
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT
18-20Z. THEREFORE...POPS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. NO WINTRY P-TYPE IS
EXPECTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN GOOD WARMING TREND.

1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
NAM AND ADJMAV...FAVORING THE FORMER FOR STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS LATE TONIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANED AT
THIS TIME. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. A
LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS
THE NC MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST MESO-MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT ENTERS THE
NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN THE TAF. SW WINDS SHOULD PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-20KTS POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SW WINDS
SHOULD TO VEER TO THE NW AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. AS SURFACE PRESSURE TIGHTENS UP BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 15-20KTS WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 15Z. CLOUD CIGS WILL BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 8K FT DURING THE FROPA TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT DUE TO THE FROPA. A LIGHT BAND
OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE MTNS. HENCE...NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN KAVL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SW
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL VEER THE NW TONIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  81%     MED   60%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JOH





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291758
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATER ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM EST UPDATE...LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS WERE HANDLING WELL
WITH THE BAND OF PRECIP CROSSING THE NC MTNS ZONES AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HENCE...HAVE BLENDED WITH THE CAMPOP FEATURING LIKELY
POPS OVER THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO...HAVE CARRIED A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/VALLEYS
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO WARM UP ABOVE 40S.

1000 EST THURSDAY UPDATE...LATEST SURROUNDING REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A
BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM
THE TN VALLEY AS OF THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES BETWEEN 16-18Z AND
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT
18-20Z. THEREFORE...POPS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. NO WINTRY P-TYPE IS
EXPECTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN GOOD WARMING TREND.

1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
NAM AND ADJMAV...FAVORING THE FORMER FOR STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS LATE TONIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANED AT
THIS TIME. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. A
LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS
THE NC MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST MESO-MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT ENTERS THE
NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN THE TAF. SW WINDS SHOULD PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-20KTS POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SW WINDS
SHOULD TO VEER TO THE NW AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. AS SURFACE PRESSURE TIGHTENS UP BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 15-20KTS WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 15Z. CLOUD CIGS WILL BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 8K FT DURING THE FROPA TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT KAVL WHERE MVFR CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT DUE TO THE FROPA. A LIGHT BAND
OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE MTNS. HENCE...NO PRECIP WAS
MENTIONED IN KAVL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SW
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL VEER THE NW TONIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRI MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  81%     MED   60%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JOH




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291522 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1017 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 EST THURSDAY UPDATE...LATEST SURROUNDING REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A
BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM
THE TN VALLEY AS OF THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES BETWEEN 16-18Z AND
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT
18-20Z. THEREFORE...POPS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. NO WINTRY P-TYPE IS
EXPECTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN GOOD WARMING TREND.

1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
NAM AND ADJMAV...FAVORING THE FORMER FOR STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS LATE TONIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANED AT
THIS TIME. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIG WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
SUPPORT FOR A LOW VFR CIG THIS EVENING...INSTEAD PREFERRING A MID
LEVEL CIG...BEFORE EROSION LATE TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
CARRIED BENEATH HOWEVER. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS WILL COME UP THIS MORNING
     VEERING SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASING. FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIGS WILL SET UP THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS EVENING AT KAVL
AND KAND...BUT GUIDANCE IS LESS CERTAIN AT KHKY...KGSP AND
KGMU...WHERE A MID LEVEL CIG IS INDICATED.  AT THE LAST THREE
SITES...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED BENEATH THE CIG. THE CIG FALLS TO
MVFR AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT IN MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TOO LOW TO
MENTION...ALTHOUGH KAVL WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. IF SOME SNOW CAN FALL
AT KAVL BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER DAWN...THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS INCREASING.
KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND
FOOTHILLS WINDS FOLLOW SUIT LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT






000
FXUS62 KGSP 291522 CCA
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1017 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 EST THURSDAY UPDATE...LATEST SURROUNDING REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A
BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM
THE TN VALLEY AS OF THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES BETWEEN 16-18Z AND
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT
18-20Z. THEREFORE...POPS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE VERY LIGHT GIVEN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. NO WINTRY P-TYPE IS
EXPECTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN GOOD WARMING TREND.

1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
NAM AND ADJMAV...FAVORING THE FORMER FOR STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS LATE TONIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANED AT
THIS TIME. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIG WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
SUPPORT FOR A LOW VFR CIG THIS EVENING...INSTEAD PREFERRING A MID
LEVEL CIG...BEFORE EROSION LATE TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
CARRIED BENEATH HOWEVER. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS WILL COME UP THIS MORNING
     VEERING SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASING. FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIGS WILL SET UP THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS EVENING AT KAVL
AND KAND...BUT GUIDANCE IS LESS CERTAIN AT KHKY...KGSP AND
KGMU...WHERE A MID LEVEL CIG IS INDICATED.  AT THE LAST THREE
SITES...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED BENEATH THE CIG. THE CIG FALLS TO
MVFR AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT IN MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TOO LOW TO
MENTION...ALTHOUGH KAVL WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. IF SOME SNOW CAN FALL
AT KAVL BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER DAWN...THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS INCREASING.
KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND
FOOTHILLS WINDS FOLLOW SUIT LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT







000
FXUS62 KGSP 291517
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1017 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 EST THURSDAY UPDATE...LATEST SURROUNDING REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A
BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM
THE TN VALLEY AS OF THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NC MTN ZONES BETWEEN 16-18Z AND
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT
18-20Z. THEREFORE...20/30 POPS WERE MENTIONED FOR THE AFFECTING
AREAS THRU THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
VERY LIGHT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. NO
WINTRY P-TYPE IS EXPECTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN GOOD WARMING
TREND.

1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
NAM AND ADJMAV...FAVORING THE FORMER FOR STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS LATE TONIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANED AT
THIS TIME. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIG WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
SUPPORT FOR A LOW VFR CIG THIS EVENING...INSTEAD PREFERRING A MID
LEVEL CIG...BEFORE EROSION LATE TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
CARRIED BENEATH HOWEVER. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS WILL COME UP THIS MORNING
     VEERING SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASING. FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIGS WILL SET UP THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS EVENING AT KAVL
AND KAND...BUT GUIDANCE IS LESS CERTAIN AT KHKY...KGSP AND
KGMU...WHERE A MID LEVEL CIG IS INDICATED.  AT THE LAST THREE
SITES...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED BENEATH THE CIG. THE CIG FALLS TO
MVFR AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT IN MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TOO LOW TO
MENTION...ALTHOUGH KAVL WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. IF SOME SNOW CAN FALL
AT KAVL BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER DAWN...THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS INCREASING.
KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND
FOOTHILLS WINDS FOLLOW SUIT LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     MED   75%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/JOH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 291119
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
619 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
NAM AND ADJMAV...FAVORING THE FORMER FOR STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS LATE TONIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANED AT
THIS TIME. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIG WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
SUPPORT FOR A LOW VFR CIG THIS EVENING...INSTEAD PREFERRING A MID
LEVEL CIG...BEFORE EROSION LATE TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
CARRIED BENEATH HOWEVER. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS WILL COME UP THIS MORNING
     VEERING SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASING. FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIGS WILL SET UP THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS EVENING AT KAVL
AND KAND...BUT GUIDANCE IS LESS CERTAIN AT KHKY...KGSP AND
KGMU...WHERE A MID LEVEL CIG IS INDICATED.  AT THE LAST THREE
SITES...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED BENEATH THE CIG. THE CIG FALLS TO
MVFR AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT IN MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TOO LOW TO
MENTION...ALTHOUGH KAVL WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. IF SOME SNOW CAN FALL
AT KAVL BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER DAWN...THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS INCREASING.
KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND
FOOTHILLS WINDS FOLLOW SUIT LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 291119
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
619 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A TWO TO ONE BLEND OF THE
NAM AND ADJMAV...FAVORING THE FORMER FOR STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY AT THE VERY
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS LATE TONIGHT...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANED AT
THIS TIME. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIG WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
SUPPORT FOR A LOW VFR CIG THIS EVENING...INSTEAD PREFERRING A MID
LEVEL CIG...BEFORE EROSION LATE TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
CARRIED BENEATH HOWEVER. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS WILL COME UP THIS MORNING
     VEERING SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASING. FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CIGS WILL SET UP THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS EVENING AT KAVL
AND KAND...BUT GUIDANCE IS LESS CERTAIN AT KHKY...KGSP AND
KGMU...WHERE A MID LEVEL CIG IS INDICATED.  AT THE LAST THREE
SITES...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED BENEATH THE CIG. THE CIG FALLS TO
MVFR AT KAVL LATE TONIGHT IN MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TOO LOW TO
MENTION...ALTHOUGH KAVL WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. IF SOME SNOW CAN FALL
AT KAVL BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME. S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER DAWN...THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS INCREASING.
KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND
FOOTHILLS WINDS FOLLOW SUIT LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290835
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BY THIS EVENING A
LOW VFR CIG WILL MOVE IN. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S THIS
MORNING THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL SPREAD HIGH LEVEL CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE BEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY WORTHY OF A MENTION AT KAVL. IF SOME
SNOW CAN FALL AT KAVL...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL GO S BY DAWN THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING. KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHILE FOOTHILLS WINDS REMAIN SW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290835
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EST THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WHILE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH REACHES
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA BY MORNING....WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
REACHES THE EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME THIS MORNING...PERHAPS EARLY ENOUGH TO START AS
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WARMING...SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS
TODAY. NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE MOIST LAYER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED THERE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
THIS EVENING...WHILE COVERAGE RETREATS CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN JUST UNDER
TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT...BUT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE APPROACHED
ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY IS PLANNED. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY BE REACHED LATE TONIGHT ON PEAKS
OVER 5000 FT...SO NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND A WANING NWFS EVENT. DRY CP AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE MTNS AND LIMIT THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
LIKELY AROUND ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 21Z ACROSS WRN MTN
SPINE. GOOD H85 CAA ALONG WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WITH ADVISORY OR EVEN
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET ABOVE 4000 FEET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN VELOCITIES ATOP THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HWO MENTION FOR NOW AND THE DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE NPW AS THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE 2ND PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GOOD H85 TGRAD
EVENTUALLY LOOSENING AFT 00Z. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MTN VALLEYS AND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NON/MTNS. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE FRI NIGHT AND FLAT RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENABLE THE CP SFC HIGH TO CROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z
SUN. THUS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A LLVL THETA/E TROF MIXES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT
12Z ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HRS...THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. DURING THIS PERIOD...A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
SPINS UP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS NE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GET
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROF.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR WSW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
POPS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL ZONES. THE GFS
REMAINS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. IN THE LOWS WAKE...ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MON AND DRIES THINGS
OUT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUES AND MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER
REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH DOWN OVER THE REGION ON THURS AND KEEPS
THINGS DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER MILLER A TYPE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX ON WED AND MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WED/EARLY THURS AND AFTER THAT...IT DRIES THINGS
OUT LIKE THE GFS. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HINTED MORE TOWARDS
THE MILLER A TYPE LOW DEVELOPING...SO THE CURRENT DRY SCENARIO LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR
THE MON/TUES PERIOD WITH LOWS EARLY TUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
POP TRENDS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE SUN THRU EARLY MON. FOR TUES/WED...I KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE GULF LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BY THIS EVENING A
LOW VFR CIG WILL MOVE IN. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S THIS
MORNING THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL SPREAD HIGH LEVEL CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE BEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY WORTHY OF A MENTION AT KAVL. IF SOME
SNOW CAN FALL AT KAVL...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL GO S BY DAWN THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING. KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHILE FOOTHILLS WINDS REMAIN SW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 290514
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1214 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 930 PM...EARLY THIS EVENING...THE FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
AS USUAL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
OFF FASTER THAN THE HOURLY GRID TRENDS...SO THOSE WERE UPDATED. AN
AREA OF GENERALLY THIN CIRRUS WAS SEEN ENTERING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THESE
CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACRS THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS. SKY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP SKIES
CLEAR THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING PER SAT TRENDS.

AS OF 630 PM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PUBLIC FCST WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WERE TO THE AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE
00Z TAF CYCLE.

AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BY THIS EVENING A
LOW VFR CIG WILL MOVE IN. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S THIS
MORNING THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL SPREAD HIGH LEVEL CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE BEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY WORTHY OF A MENTION AT KAVL. IF SOME
SNOW CAN FALL AT KAVL...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL GO S BY DAWN THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING. KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHILE FOOTHILLS WINDS REMAIN SW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290514
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1214 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 930 PM...EARLY THIS EVENING...THE FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
AS USUAL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
OFF FASTER THAN THE HOURLY GRID TRENDS...SO THOSE WERE UPDATED. AN
AREA OF GENERALLY THIN CIRRUS WAS SEEN ENTERING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THESE
CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACRS THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS. SKY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP SKIES
CLEAR THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING PER SAT TRENDS.

AS OF 630 PM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PUBLIC FCST WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WERE TO THE AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE
00Z TAF CYCLE.

AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. A HIGH LEVEL CIG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BY THIS EVENING A
LOW VFR CIG WILL MOVE IN. EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S THIS
MORNING THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NW WINDS WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. CIRRUS WILL SPREAD HIGH LEVEL CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS FALL TO LOW VFR THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING ARE BEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY WORTHY OF A MENTION AT KAVL. IF SOME
SNOW CAN FALL AT KAVL...VSBY MIGHT BE REDUCED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL GO S BY DAWN THEN SW BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
INCREASING. KAVL WINDS VEER NW THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHILE FOOTHILLS WINDS REMAIN SW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 290232
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
932 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM...EARLY THIS EVENING...THE FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
AS USUAL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
OFF FASTER THAN THE HOURLY GRID TRENDS...SO THOSE WERE UPDATED. AN
AREA OF GENERALLY THIN CIRRUS WAS SEEN ENTERING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THESE
CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACRS THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS. SKY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP SKIES
CLEAR THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING PER SAT TRENDS.

AS OF 630 PM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PUBLIC FCST WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WERE TO THE AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE
00Z TAF CYCLE.

AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
CALM OR LGT S/SE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP A TAD OUT OF THE
SW...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR FEW250 OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND THICKEN/LOWER TO A MID CLOUD DECK THRU THURSDAY AFTN...AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE DRY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
SHUD BE TOO DRY FOR FOG.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 290232
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
932 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM...EARLY THIS EVENING...THE FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
AS USUAL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
OFF FASTER THAN THE HOURLY GRID TRENDS...SO THOSE WERE UPDATED. AN
AREA OF GENERALLY THIN CIRRUS WAS SEEN ENTERING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THESE
CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACRS THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS. SKY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP SKIES
CLEAR THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING PER SAT TRENDS.

AS OF 630 PM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PUBLIC FCST WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WERE TO THE AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE
00Z TAF CYCLE.

AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
CALM OR LGT S/SE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP A TAD OUT OF THE
SW...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR FEW250 OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND THICKEN/LOWER TO A MID CLOUD DECK THRU THURSDAY AFTN...AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE DRY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
SHUD BE TOO DRY FOR FOG.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 282331
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PUBLIC FCST WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WERE TO THE AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE
00Z TAF CYCLE.

AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
CALM OR LGT S/SE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP A TAD OUT OF THE
SW...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR FEW250 OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND THICKEN/LOWER TO A MID CLOUD DECK THRU THURSDAY AFTN...AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE DRY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
SHUD BE TOO DRY FOR FOG.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK





000
FXUS62 KGSP 282331
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PUBLIC FCST WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WERE TO THE AVIATION GRIDS FOR THE
00Z TAF CYCLE.

AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
CALM OR LGT S/SE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP A TAD OUT OF THE
SW...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR FEW250 OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND THICKEN/LOWER TO A MID CLOUD DECK THRU THURSDAY AFTN...AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE DRY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
SHUD BE TOO DRY FOR FOG.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK




000
FXUS62 KGSP 282147
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 282147
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...FCST IS ON TRACK. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS AND DEWPTS
WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBS...BLENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 281952
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281952
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO YIELD A FAIRLY NICE...YET COOL
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER SOUTHERLY AS
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD EVENTUALLY TAKING UP ROOT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.  COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.  WARMING TEMPERATURES AMONGST ABUNDANT INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION HAVE LED TO RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC/SC PIEDMONT REGIONS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA.  ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CRITICAL RH LEVELS AS
IT PERTAINS TO FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME SITES EVEN REPORTING CALM WINDS.
THUS...CAUTION IS URGED IF PLANNING TO BURN TODAY...HOWEVER NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...AN SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE
SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FIRST OF WHICH
YIELDING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PREFRONTAL PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON.  AT THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AS
THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS
EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE PERIODS END.  THUS THE FCST FEATURES INCREASING CHANCE LEVEL
POPS THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC HIGH TERRAIN WITH
A DRY FCST PREVAILING OVER THE PIEDMONT REGIONS.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALREADY EXIST OVER THE MTNS AT 00Z FRIDAY AND SEE
LITTLE REASON IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO CHANGE THAT. FORCING AND THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND 06Z FRIDAY...SO A LIKELY POP
LOOKS GOOD ON THE TN BORDER. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SLOWLY WANE
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE POP THRU
FRIDAY...AND WILL END IT BY THE END OF THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS. SOME OF THE INITIAL PRECIP COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...ALTHO THE FCST FAVORS A LARGER COVERAGE OF SNOW THAN MIGHT BE
SUPPORTED DIRECTLY FROM THE MODEL DATA. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE TN BORDER WELL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE. THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO AS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW.  THE MAIN ACCUM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
THIRD FCST PERIOD...THUS IT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO ISSUE
AND ADVISORY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHO THE TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE TREND SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT APART FROM ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K FEET...AND THE HWO WILL BE
WORDED ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE FCST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN. WE SHOULD SEE THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ZONAL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MTNS AND MID-ATLC/CAROLINAS. THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL...WITH CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...THEY DO AGREE
ON AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH 2 WX SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...ONE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ONE LATE. ALOFT...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE SUN NITE-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA. AT THE SFC HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NITE. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES EAST OF THE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN BUT IT IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT COMING IN SUN NITE AND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...DEVELOPING PRECIP EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE GFS IS ALSO WARMER INDICATING A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT UNTIL
NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS SUN NITE AND MON AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF IS COLDER SHOWING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD...KEEPING
THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE USED A MDL BLEND WHICH BRINGS THE
BEST PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN TAPERING OFF
TO A NW FLOW SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON. USED A CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW
TEMP FOR THE WEATHER WHICH KEEPS SNOW LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MTNS...
WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ONSET. SHOULD THE ECMWF
PROVE RIGHT...THEN SNOW WOULD FALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DRY AND COLD WX EXPECTED MON NITE AND
TUESDAY AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMP IS AS COLD AS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL AT ITS COLDEST TUE MORN.

THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS AGAIN ON THE HANDLING OF THE AFORE
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEY BOTH OPEN THE LOW
AND MOVE IT EAST INTO THE SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. AT THE SFC...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A
MILLER-A TYPE SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST AND FASTER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER.
DESPITE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
IS NOT A CLASSICAL TYPE CAD. THE PARENT HIGH IS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND TRANSIENT. STILL...IF PRECIP WERE TO START EARLY
ENUF...THEN A WINTRY MIX WOULD DEVELOP EVEN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
BEFORE WARMING TO ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NC
MTNS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LIMITED POP TO CHC...AND USED A
CONSERVATIVE RAIN/SNOW TEMP FOR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 281741
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM EVER SO
SLOWLY AMIDST LIGHT/MODERATE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND ABUNDANT
INSOLATION.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1030MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPS WHICH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THUS...CURRENT FCST YIELDING BACKED
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS REMAINS ON TRACK.  THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT NEAR TERM CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  DID
TWEAK TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

1115 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ITS BASES.

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TN RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS VEER FROM N TO S AHEAD OF AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT...AND NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR
MASS CROSSING OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH(S) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THUS...WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
DIMINISHING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WARM-SECTOR DURING THE DAY
THU (JUSTIFYING SLT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS)...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
FROPA...WHEN A DECENT SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM LATE THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE
USUAL SUSPECT AREAS...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...H8 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS...AND ABOUT A
6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BASED UPON WHAT I/M SEEING THUS FAR...I
WOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE ADVISORY END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR NOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE MTNS...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A ROCKIES TROUGH/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW FORCE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.
WHILE PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR OUR AREA
(WINTER-WX WISE) LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 00Z RUN ONCE AGAIN
FEATURES A WEST-OF-THE-APPALACHIANS SOLUTION...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MOST UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT/S ONLY IF THE PRECIP WERE TO BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH
SUNDAY AM. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN MAKER...AND PERHAPS EVEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE
CONVECTION CONCERN...AS SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

HAVING SAID THAT...WITH THE GFS STILL WAFFLING A BIT...OPTED TO NOT
MAKE ANY BOLD CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO ENTERTAIN REMOVING THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AFTER POSSIBLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WIND/SNOW
EVENT MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 281741
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM EVER SO
SLOWLY AMIDST LIGHT/MODERATE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND ABUNDANT
INSOLATION.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1030MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPS WHICH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THUS...CURRENT FCST YIELDING BACKED
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS REMAINS ON TRACK.  THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT NEAR TERM CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.  DID
TWEAK TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

1115 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ITS BASES.

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TN RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS VEER FROM N TO S AHEAD OF AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT...AND NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR
MASS CROSSING OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH(S) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THUS...WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
DIMINISHING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WARM-SECTOR DURING THE DAY
THU (JUSTIFYING SLT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS)...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
FROPA...WHEN A DECENT SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM LATE THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE
USUAL SUSPECT AREAS...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...H8 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS...AND ABOUT A
6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BASED UPON WHAT I/M SEEING THUS FAR...I
WOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE ADVISORY END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR NOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE MTNS...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A ROCKIES TROUGH/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW FORCE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.
WHILE PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR OUR AREA
(WINTER-WX WISE) LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 00Z RUN ONCE AGAIN
FEATURES A WEST-OF-THE-APPALACHIANS SOLUTION...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MOST UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT/S ONLY IF THE PRECIP WERE TO BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH
SUNDAY AM. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN MAKER...AND PERHAPS EVEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE
CONVECTION CONCERN...AS SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

HAVING SAID THAT...WITH THE GFS STILL WAFFLING A BIT...OPTED TO NOT
MAKE ANY BOLD CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO ENTERTAIN REMOVING THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AFTER POSSIBLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WIND/SNOW
EVENT MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 18-20KT GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT KAVL...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL UNDER SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.  ONCE THE RIDGE TAKES ROOT TO THE
EAST BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK SOUTHERLY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THROUGH
MORNING ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  NO WX MENTIONED AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRI. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 281443
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
943 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM EST WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS OF WESTERN NC...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
REGIONWIDE THIS MORNING.  INCREASING INSOLATION AND MODERATE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW ARE ALREADY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.  WINDS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BLUERIDGE THUS BLENDED IN LATEST MAV AND RECALCULATED GUSTS TO
BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT OBS.  RH LEVELS ARE STILL FCST TO FALL TO
CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY
FIRE DANGER CRITERIA.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK AND
ASIDE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

1115 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ITS BASES.

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TN RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS VEER FROM N TO S AHEAD OF AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT...AND NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR
MASS CROSSING OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH(S) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THUS...WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
DIMINISHING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WARM-SECTOR DURING THE DAY
THU (JUSTIFYING SLT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS)...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
FROPA...WHEN A DECENT SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM LATE THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE
USUAL SUSPECT AREAS...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...H8 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS...AND ABOUT A
6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BASED UPON WHAT I/M SEEING THUS FAR...I
WOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE ADVISORY END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR NOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE MTNS...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A ROCKIES TROUGH/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW FORCE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.
WHILE PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR OUR AREA
(WINTER-WX WISE) LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 00Z RUN ONCE AGAIN
FEATURES A WEST-OF-THE-APPALACHIANS SOLUTION...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MOST UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT/S ONLY IF THE PRECIP WERE TO BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH
SUNDAY AM. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN MAKER...AND PERHAPS EVEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE
CONVECTION CONCERN...AS SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

HAVING SAID THAT...WITH THE GFS STILL WAFFLING A BIT...OPTED TO NOT
MAKE ANY BOLD CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO ENTERTAIN REMOVING THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AFTER POSSIBLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WIND/SNOW
EVENT MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LIGHT N WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN VEER TO SE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO
DRY FOR FOG RELATED VSBY RESTRICTIONS...AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A HIGH LEVEL CIG.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. WINDS FROM THE NNW WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL GO SOUTH THIS EVENING ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE...WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MS RIVER. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...BUT NOT IN SUFFICIENT
QUANTITIES FOR A CIG. ALTHOUGH LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL START TO
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY...IT WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG RELATED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 281116
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
616 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ITS BASES.

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TN RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS VEER FROM N TO S AHEAD OF AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT...AND NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR
MASS CROSSING OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH(S) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THUS...WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
DIMINISHING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WARM-SECTOR DURING THE DAY
THU (JUSTIFYING SLT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS)...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
FROPA...WHEN A DECENT SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM LATE THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE
USUAL SUSPECT AREAS...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...H8 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS...AND ABOUT A
6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BASED UPON WHAT I/M SEEING THUS FAR...I
WOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE ADVISORY END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR NOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE MTNS...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A ROCKIES TROUGH/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW FORCE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.
WHILE PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR OUR AREA
(WINTER-WX WISE) LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 00Z RUN ONCE AGAIN
FEATURES A WEST-OF-THE-APPALACHIANS SOLUTION...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MOST UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT/S ONLY IF THE PRECIP WERE TO BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH
SUNDAY AM. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN MAKER...AND PERHAPS EVEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE
CONVECTION CONCERN...AS SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

HAVING SAID THAT...WITH THE GFS STILL WAFFLING A BIT...OPTED TO NOT
MAKE ANY BOLD CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO ENTERTAIN REMOVING THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AFTER POSSIBLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WIND/SNOW
EVENT MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LIGHT N WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN VEER TO SE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO
DRY FOR FOG RELATED VSBY RESTRICTIONS...AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A HIGH LEVEL CIG.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. WINDS FROM THE NNW WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL GO SOUTH THIS EVENING ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE...WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MS RIVER. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...BUT NOT IN SUFFICIENT
QUANTITIES FOR A CIG. ALTHOUGH LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL START TO
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY...IT WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG RELATED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 280849
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ITS BASES.

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TN RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS VEER FROM N TO S AHEAD OF AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT...AND NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR
MASS CROSSING OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH(S) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THUS...WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
DIMINISHING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WARM-SECTOR DURING THE DAY
THU (JUSTIFYING SLT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS)...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
FROPA...WHEN A DECENT SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM LATE THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE
USUAL SUSPECT AREAS...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...H8 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS...AND ABOUT A
6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BASED UPON WHAT I/M SEEING THUS FAR...I
WOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE ADVISORY END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR NOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE MTNS...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A ROCKIES TROUGH/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW FORCE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.
WHILE PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR OUR AREA
(WINTER-WX WISE) LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 00Z RUN ONCE AGAIN
FEATURES A WEST-OF-THE-APPALACHIANS SOLUTION...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MOST UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT/S ONLY IF THE PRECIP WERE TO BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH
SUNDAY AM. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN MAKER...AND PERHAPS EVEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE
CONVECTION CONCERN...AS SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

HAVING SAID THAT...WITH THE GFS STILL WAFFLING A BIT...OPTED TO NOT
MAKE ANY BOLD CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO ENTERTAIN REMOVING THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AFTER POSSIBLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WIND/SNOW
EVENT MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LIGHT N WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN VEER TO SE....REMAINING UP SOMEWHAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD O THE NEXT FRONT. THE DRY AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE
REGION DOES NOT SUPPORT VSBY RESTRICTIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT CLOUD
COVER WILL NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A HIGH LEVEL CIG.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AT KAVL. WINDS VEER NE AFTER DAYBREAK AT SC SITES...THEN BECOME
S EVERYWHERE BY THIS EVENING..STAYING UP SOMEWHAT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTEND THAT A HIGH CIG
WOULD SET UP.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 280849
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CROSSES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ITS BASES.

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TN RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...RESULTING IN RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS VEER FROM N TO S AHEAD OF AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT...AND NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE COOL AIR
MASS CROSSING OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH(S) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THUS...WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A
DIMINISHING AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE WARM-SECTOR DURING THE DAY
THU (JUSTIFYING SLT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS)...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
FROPA...WHEN A DECENT SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM LATE THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN THE
USUAL SUSPECT AREAS...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS. THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS...H8 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS...AND ABOUT A
6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED BETWEEN THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND THE
NC FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...BASED UPON WHAT I/M SEEING THUS FAR...I
WOULD LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE ADVISORY END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR NOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
THE MTNS...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
AS UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A ROCKIES TROUGH/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
LOW FORCE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE WILL QUICKLY TAP INTO AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE.
WHILE PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE WAS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR OUR AREA
(WINTER-WX WISE) LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE 00Z RUN ONCE AGAIN
FEATURES A WEST-OF-THE-APPALACHIANS SOLUTION...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE MOST UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT/S ONLY IF THE PRECIP WERE TO BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH
SUNDAY AM. IN FACT...THIS MAY BE DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN MAKER...AND PERHAPS EVEN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE
CONVECTION CONCERN...AS SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.

HAVING SAID THAT...WITH THE GFS STILL WAFFLING A BIT...OPTED TO NOT
MAKE ANY BOLD CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO ENTERTAIN REMOVING THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
FROM THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AFTER POSSIBLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WIND/SNOW
EVENT MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LIGHT N WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN VEER TO SE....REMAINING UP SOMEWHAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD O THE NEXT FRONT. THE DRY AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE
REGION DOES NOT SUPPORT VSBY RESTRICTIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT CLOUD
COVER WILL NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A HIGH LEVEL CIG.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AT KAVL. WINDS VEER NE AFTER DAYBREAK AT SC SITES...THEN BECOME
S EVERYWHERE BY THIS EVENING..STAYING UP SOMEWHAT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTEND THAT A HIGH CIG
WOULD SET UP.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 280516
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1216 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED NEAR THE TN BORDER PER
RADAR TRENDS. SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WINDS WERE UPDATED FORM THE LATEST NAM AND ADJMET.

AS OF 915 PM TUE...WITHIN THE LAST HOUR WE HAVE GOTTEN SOME REPORTS
FROM THE WAYNESVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREAS THAT INDICATE SNOW IS
FALLING OUT OF THE REMAINING UPSLOPE-FORCED CLOUD COVER. I REVISED
FLURRY/SHSN MENTION IN THE FCST BASED ON CLOUD TOP TEMPS...WITH THE
RESULT BEING SHSN OVER THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND SMOKIES WHERE THE
TOPS ARE COLDEST...WITH LESS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTH
WHERE MOISTURE IS EVIDENTLY MORE SHALLOW. FLURRIES WERE MENTIONED IN
TOWARD THE EDGES OF THE CLOUD DECK...WHERE THE FLOW IS MORE
DOWNSLOPE ANYWAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS DONE PRETTY GOOD
IN THIS PATTERN...SHOWS QPF ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SO I MAINTAINED
A DOWNWARD TREND WITH TIME. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES WITH A SHARP FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS SLIDING OFFSHORE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DRY FCST PREVAILS LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW WITH
SKIES NEARLY CLEAR...BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN REMAINING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT AS THE
AFORE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING JUST TO THE NORTH.  THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND
DOWNSLOPING FLOW...ALTHOUGH STILL A TAD BELOW CLIMO. RH LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL TOWARDS CRITICAL LEVELS AS
TEMPERATURES RISE AND DEWPOINTS MIX OUT.  THAT SAID...AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES WILL REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY GUSTING THEREFORE THESE FIRE WX CONCERNS
REMAIN MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD ADVECTION FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEFORE WE GET
THERE...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING
UP THE OH VALLEY AND DAMPENING OUT. ALTHO THERE IS SOME DPVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE THAT MOVES OVERHEAD...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. AS A RESULT...NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS RESPOND
WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP E OF THE MTNS. IN FACT...THE MODELS DELAY THE
ONSET OF PRECIP OVER THE MTNS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN PUSHED BACK IN TIME...AND ELIMINATED OVER THE
PIEDMONT.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT AND
THEN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE MTNS...AND IN PARTICULAR...THE TN BORDER. PRECIP CHANCES WERE
NUDGED UPWARD A BIT MORE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS VERY QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING SUCH
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE FOR AN ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATION OVER PARTS OF THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION. THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW
UPSLOPE MOISTURE DRIES UP DURING MIDDAY ON FRIDAY...LIMITING THE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAISE THE WIND
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS WINDS AT THE TOP OF A
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AT AROUND 50KT. THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL STICK
UP INTO A VERY FAST FLOW. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS HIGH
MOMENTUM AIR WILL REACH THE GROUND. THE COLD ADVECTION SUGGESTS A
SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF IT TO HAPPEN.
WILL MENTION THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HWO ACROSS THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LITTLE MORE THAN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT. 1034 MB SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE SRN SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES
TO UPSTATE NY THROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT CLIPPER DIGGING SE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT WILL
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY. GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS ON A SFC REFLECTION DEEPENING
OVER ERN TX LATE SAT NIGHT AND ROCKETING UP THE FRONTAL
ZONE...MAINLY W OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. FOLLOWING AN ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE BRINGS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
SLOTTING THEN EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE PEAK OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT LIFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
SHOULD YIELD THE BEST PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FARTHER WEST SFC LOW TRACK ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE
RAPID WARMING OF PROFILES THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. STILL...MOST
PROFILES SUPPORT WINTRY PTYPES AT ONSET GIVEN THE COOL WET
BULBS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS THEN RISING TO +3 TO +5 DEGREES C DURING
THE PERIOD OF BEST QPF LATER SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRES TO THE
NE MOVES OFFSHORE QUICKLY...A LINGERING SHALLOW HYBRID CAD
CONFIGURATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NRN TIER. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT RAIN VERSUS SNOW PTYPES
SINCE ANY TRANSITION ZONE LOOKS PRETTY NARROW. SOME INSTABILITY
COULD WRAP UP AROUND THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH TOO SMALL A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO MENTION IT IN THE LOWER
PIEDMONT AT PRESENT.

BRIEF NW FLOW SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. HIGH WINDS COULD BE A PROBLEM WITH THE 850 MB JET
PROGGED TO RUN 50 TO 60 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE COLD ADVECTION
AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AN HWO MENTION MAY BE NEEDED. DRY NW TO W FLOW IS
EXPECTED MON THROUGH TUE. STRONG AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER TO THE N...WITH VERY CHILLY THICKNESSES AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LIGHT N WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN VEER TO SE....REMAINING UP SOMEWHAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD O THE NEXT FRONT. THE DRY AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE
REGION DOES NOT SUPPORT VSBY RESTRICTIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT CLOUD
COVER WILL NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A HIGH LEVEL CIG.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AT KAVL. WINDS VEER NE AFTER DAYBREAK AT SC SITES...THEN BECOME
S EVERYWHERE BY THIS EVENING..STAYING UP SOMEWHAT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTEND THAT A HIGH CIG
WOULD SET UP.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   57%     MED   62%     MED   64%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 280223
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
923 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM TUE...WITHIN THE LAST HOUR WE HAVE GOTTEN SOME REPORTS
FROM THE WAYNESVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREAS THAT INDICATE SNOW IS
FALLING OUT OF THE REMAINING UPSLOPE-FORCED CLOUD COVER. I REVISED
FLURRY/SHSN MENTION IN THE FCST BASED ON CLOUD TOP TEMPS...WITH THE
RESULT BEING SHSN OVER THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND SMOKIES WHERE THE
TOPS ARE COLDEST...WITH LESS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTH
WHERE MOISTURE IS EVIDENTLY MORE SHALLOW. FLURRIES WERE MENTIONED IN
TOWARD THE EDGES OF THE CLOUD DECK...WHERE THE FLOW IS MORE
DOWNSLOPE ANYWAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS DONE PRETTY GOOD
IN THIS PATTERN...SHOWS QPF ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SO I MAINTAINED
A DOWNWARD TREND WITH TIME. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES WITH A SHARP FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS SLIDING OFFSHORE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DRY FCST PREVAILS LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW WITH
SKIES NEARLY CLEAR...BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN REMAINING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT AS THE
AFORE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING JUST TO THE NORTH.  THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND
DOWNSLOPING FLOW...ALTHOUGH STILL A TAD BELOW CLIMO. RH LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL TOWARDS CRITICAL LEVELS AS
TEMPERATURES RISE AND DEWPOINTS MIX OUT.  THAT SAID...AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES WILL REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY GUSTING THEREFORE THESE FIRE WX CONCERNS
REMAIN MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD ADVECTION FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEFORE WE GET
THERE...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING
UP THE OH VALLEY AND DAMPENING OUT. ALTHO THERE IS SOME DPVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE THAT MOVES OVERHEAD...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. AS A RESULT...NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS RESPOND
WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP E OF THE MTNS. IN FACT...THE MODELS DELAY THE
ONSET OF PRECIP OVER THE MTNS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN PUSHED BACK IN TIME...AND ELIMINATED OVER THE
PIEDMONT.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT AND
THEN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE MTNS...AND IN PARTICULAR...THE TN BORDER. PRECIP CHANCES WERE
NUDGED UPWARD A BIT MORE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS VERY QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING SUCH
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE FOR AN ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATION OVER PARTS OF THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION. THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW
UPSLOPE MOISTURE DRIES UP DURING MIDDAY ON FRIDAY...LIMITING THE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAISE THE WIND
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS WINDS AT THE TOP OF A
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AT AROUND 50KT. THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL STICK
UP INTO A VERY FAST FLOW. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS HIGH
MOMENTUM AIR WILL REACH THE GROUND. THE COLD ADVECTION SUGGESTS A
SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF IT TO HAPPEN.
WILL MENTION THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HWO ACROSS THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LITTLE MORE THAN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT. 1034 MB SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE SRN SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES
TO UPSTATE NY THROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT CLIPPER DIGGING SE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT WILL
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY. GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS ON A SFC REFLECTION DEEPENING
OVER ERN TX LATE SAT NIGHT AND ROCKETING UP THE FRONTAL
ZONE...MAINLY W OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. FOLLOWING AN ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE BRINGS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
SLOTTING THEN EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE PEAK OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT LIFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
SHOULD YIELD THE BEST PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FARTHER WEST SFC LOW TRACK ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE
RAPID WARMING OF PROFILES THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. STILL...MOST
PROFILES SUPPORT WINTRY PTYPES AT ONSET GIVEN THE COOL WET
BULBS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS THEN RISING TO +3 TO +5 DEGREES C DURING
THE PERIOD OF BEST QPF LATER SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRES TO THE
NE MOVES OFFSHORE QUICKLY...A LINGERING SHALLOW HYBRID CAD
CONFIGURATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NRN TIER. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT RAIN VERSUS SNOW PTYPES
SINCE ANY TRANSITION ZONE LOOKS PRETTY NARROW. SOME INSTABILITY
COULD WRAP UP AROUND THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH TOO SMALL A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO MENTION IT IN THE LOWER
PIEDMONT AT PRESENT.

BRIEF NW FLOW SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. HIGH WINDS COULD BE A PROBLEM WITH THE 850 MB JET
PROGGED TO RUN 50 TO 60 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE COLD ADVECTION
AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AN HWO MENTION MAY BE NEEDED. DRY NW TO W FLOW IS
EXPECTED MON THROUGH TUE. STRONG AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER TO THE N...WITH VERY CHILLY THICKNESSES AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WITH ONLY A FEW MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SEEN THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED THIS EVENING DUE TO SFC LOW PRESSURE TO THE
EAST...BUT NNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WED MRNG.
LEE TROUGHING MIGHT BACK WINDS IN THE EARLY AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...NW FLOW SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF NEAR THE TENN BORDER
THIS EVENING...BUT A CLOUD DECK NEAR THE VFR-MVFR THRESHOLD WILL
LINGER THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. KAVL MAY SEE MVFR CIGS AT TIMES UNTIL
THE CLOUDS BREAK UP APPRECIABLY...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED. KAVL WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY NW WITH SOME GUSTS THRU THE NIGHT. SOME
GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST THRU THE EVENING AT KGSP/KGMU DUE TO MTN GAP
EFFECTS. OTHERWISE ALL TERMINALS SHOULD STAY VFR AND MOSTLY SKC THRU
THE PERIOD...WITH NLY WINDS VEERING LATE TMRW AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 280223
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
923 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM TUE...WITHIN THE LAST HOUR WE HAVE GOTTEN SOME REPORTS
FROM THE WAYNESVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREAS THAT INDICATE SNOW IS
FALLING OUT OF THE REMAINING UPSLOPE-FORCED CLOUD COVER. I REVISED
FLURRY/SHSN MENTION IN THE FCST BASED ON CLOUD TOP TEMPS...WITH THE
RESULT BEING SHSN OVER THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND SMOKIES WHERE THE
TOPS ARE COLDEST...WITH LESS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTH
WHERE MOISTURE IS EVIDENTLY MORE SHALLOW. FLURRIES WERE MENTIONED IN
TOWARD THE EDGES OF THE CLOUD DECK...WHERE THE FLOW IS MORE
DOWNSLOPE ANYWAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS DONE PRETTY GOOD
IN THIS PATTERN...SHOWS QPF ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SO I MAINTAINED
A DOWNWARD TREND WITH TIME. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES WITH A SHARP FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS SLIDING OFFSHORE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DRY FCST PREVAILS LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW WITH
SKIES NEARLY CLEAR...BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN REMAINING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT AS THE
AFORE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING JUST TO THE NORTH.  THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND
DOWNSLOPING FLOW...ALTHOUGH STILL A TAD BELOW CLIMO. RH LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL TOWARDS CRITICAL LEVELS AS
TEMPERATURES RISE AND DEWPOINTS MIX OUT.  THAT SAID...AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES WILL REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY GUSTING THEREFORE THESE FIRE WX CONCERNS
REMAIN MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD ADVECTION FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEFORE WE GET
THERE...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING
UP THE OH VALLEY AND DAMPENING OUT. ALTHO THERE IS SOME DPVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE THAT MOVES OVERHEAD...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. AS A RESULT...NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS RESPOND
WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP E OF THE MTNS. IN FACT...THE MODELS DELAY THE
ONSET OF PRECIP OVER THE MTNS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN PUSHED BACK IN TIME...AND ELIMINATED OVER THE
PIEDMONT.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT AND
THEN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE MTNS...AND IN PARTICULAR...THE TN BORDER. PRECIP CHANCES WERE
NUDGED UPWARD A BIT MORE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS VERY QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING SUCH
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE FOR AN ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATION OVER PARTS OF THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION. THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW
UPSLOPE MOISTURE DRIES UP DURING MIDDAY ON FRIDAY...LIMITING THE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAISE THE WIND
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS WINDS AT THE TOP OF A
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AT AROUND 50KT. THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL STICK
UP INTO A VERY FAST FLOW. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS HIGH
MOMENTUM AIR WILL REACH THE GROUND. THE COLD ADVECTION SUGGESTS A
SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF IT TO HAPPEN.
WILL MENTION THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HWO ACROSS THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LITTLE MORE THAN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT. 1034 MB SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE SRN SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES
TO UPSTATE NY THROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT CLIPPER DIGGING SE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT WILL
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY. GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS ON A SFC REFLECTION DEEPENING
OVER ERN TX LATE SAT NIGHT AND ROCKETING UP THE FRONTAL
ZONE...MAINLY W OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. FOLLOWING AN ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE BRINGS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
SLOTTING THEN EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE PEAK OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT LIFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
SHOULD YIELD THE BEST PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FARTHER WEST SFC LOW TRACK ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE
RAPID WARMING OF PROFILES THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. STILL...MOST
PROFILES SUPPORT WINTRY PTYPES AT ONSET GIVEN THE COOL WET
BULBS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS THEN RISING TO +3 TO +5 DEGREES C DURING
THE PERIOD OF BEST QPF LATER SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRES TO THE
NE MOVES OFFSHORE QUICKLY...A LINGERING SHALLOW HYBRID CAD
CONFIGURATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NRN TIER. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT RAIN VERSUS SNOW PTYPES
SINCE ANY TRANSITION ZONE LOOKS PRETTY NARROW. SOME INSTABILITY
COULD WRAP UP AROUND THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH TOO SMALL A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO MENTION IT IN THE LOWER
PIEDMONT AT PRESENT.

BRIEF NW FLOW SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. HIGH WINDS COULD BE A PROBLEM WITH THE 850 MB JET
PROGGED TO RUN 50 TO 60 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE COLD ADVECTION
AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AN HWO MENTION MAY BE NEEDED. DRY NW TO W FLOW IS
EXPECTED MON THROUGH TUE. STRONG AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER TO THE N...WITH VERY CHILLY THICKNESSES AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WITH ONLY A FEW MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SEEN THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED THIS EVENING DUE TO SFC LOW PRESSURE TO THE
EAST...BUT NNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WED MRNG.
LEE TROUGHING MIGHT BACK WINDS IN THE EARLY AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...NW FLOW SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF NEAR THE TENN BORDER
THIS EVENING...BUT A CLOUD DECK NEAR THE VFR-MVFR THRESHOLD WILL
LINGER THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. KAVL MAY SEE MVFR CIGS AT TIMES UNTIL
THE CLOUDS BREAK UP APPRECIABLY...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED. KAVL WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY NW WITH SOME GUSTS THRU THE NIGHT. SOME
GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST THRU THE EVENING AT KGSP/KGMU DUE TO MTN GAP
EFFECTS. OTHERWISE ALL TERMINALS SHOULD STAY VFR AND MOSTLY SKC THRU
THE PERIOD...WITH NLY WINDS VEERING LATE TMRW AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 280223
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
923 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM TUE...WITHIN THE LAST HOUR WE HAVE GOTTEN SOME REPORTS
FROM THE WAYNESVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREAS THAT INDICATE SNOW IS
FALLING OUT OF THE REMAINING UPSLOPE-FORCED CLOUD COVER. I REVISED
FLURRY/SHSN MENTION IN THE FCST BASED ON CLOUD TOP TEMPS...WITH THE
RESULT BEING SHSN OVER THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND SMOKIES WHERE THE
TOPS ARE COLDEST...WITH LESS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTH
WHERE MOISTURE IS EVIDENTLY MORE SHALLOW. FLURRIES WERE MENTIONED IN
TOWARD THE EDGES OF THE CLOUD DECK...WHERE THE FLOW IS MORE
DOWNSLOPE ANYWAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS DONE PRETTY GOOD
IN THIS PATTERN...SHOWS QPF ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SO I MAINTAINED
A DOWNWARD TREND WITH TIME. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES WITH A SHARP FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS SLIDING OFFSHORE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DRY FCST PREVAILS LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW WITH
SKIES NEARLY CLEAR...BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN REMAINING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT AS THE
AFORE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING JUST TO THE NORTH.  THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND
DOWNSLOPING FLOW...ALTHOUGH STILL A TAD BELOW CLIMO. RH LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL TOWARDS CRITICAL LEVELS AS
TEMPERATURES RISE AND DEWPOINTS MIX OUT.  THAT SAID...AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES WILL REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY GUSTING THEREFORE THESE FIRE WX CONCERNS
REMAIN MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD ADVECTION FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEFORE WE GET
THERE...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING
UP THE OH VALLEY AND DAMPENING OUT. ALTHO THERE IS SOME DPVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE THAT MOVES OVERHEAD...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. AS A RESULT...NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS RESPOND
WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP E OF THE MTNS. IN FACT...THE MODELS DELAY THE
ONSET OF PRECIP OVER THE MTNS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN PUSHED BACK IN TIME...AND ELIMINATED OVER THE
PIEDMONT.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT AND
THEN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE MTNS...AND IN PARTICULAR...THE TN BORDER. PRECIP CHANCES WERE
NUDGED UPWARD A BIT MORE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS VERY QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING SUCH
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE FOR AN ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATION OVER PARTS OF THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION. THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW
UPSLOPE MOISTURE DRIES UP DURING MIDDAY ON FRIDAY...LIMITING THE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAISE THE WIND
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS WINDS AT THE TOP OF A
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AT AROUND 50KT. THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL STICK
UP INTO A VERY FAST FLOW. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS HIGH
MOMENTUM AIR WILL REACH THE GROUND. THE COLD ADVECTION SUGGESTS A
SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF IT TO HAPPEN.
WILL MENTION THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HWO ACROSS THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LITTLE MORE THAN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT. 1034 MB SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE SRN SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES
TO UPSTATE NY THROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT CLIPPER DIGGING SE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT WILL
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY. GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS ON A SFC REFLECTION DEEPENING
OVER ERN TX LATE SAT NIGHT AND ROCKETING UP THE FRONTAL
ZONE...MAINLY W OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. FOLLOWING AN ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE BRINGS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
SLOTTING THEN EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE PEAK OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT LIFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
SHOULD YIELD THE BEST PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FARTHER WEST SFC LOW TRACK ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE
RAPID WARMING OF PROFILES THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. STILL...MOST
PROFILES SUPPORT WINTRY PTYPES AT ONSET GIVEN THE COOL WET
BULBS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS THEN RISING TO +3 TO +5 DEGREES C DURING
THE PERIOD OF BEST QPF LATER SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRES TO THE
NE MOVES OFFSHORE QUICKLY...A LINGERING SHALLOW HYBRID CAD
CONFIGURATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NRN TIER. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT RAIN VERSUS SNOW PTYPES
SINCE ANY TRANSITION ZONE LOOKS PRETTY NARROW. SOME INSTABILITY
COULD WRAP UP AROUND THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH TOO SMALL A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO MENTION IT IN THE LOWER
PIEDMONT AT PRESENT.

BRIEF NW FLOW SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. HIGH WINDS COULD BE A PROBLEM WITH THE 850 MB JET
PROGGED TO RUN 50 TO 60 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE COLD ADVECTION
AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AN HWO MENTION MAY BE NEEDED. DRY NW TO W FLOW IS
EXPECTED MON THROUGH TUE. STRONG AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER TO THE N...WITH VERY CHILLY THICKNESSES AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WITH ONLY A FEW MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SEEN THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED THIS EVENING DUE TO SFC LOW PRESSURE TO THE
EAST...BUT NNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WED MRNG.
LEE TROUGHING MIGHT BACK WINDS IN THE EARLY AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...NW FLOW SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF NEAR THE TENN BORDER
THIS EVENING...BUT A CLOUD DECK NEAR THE VFR-MVFR THRESHOLD WILL
LINGER THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. KAVL MAY SEE MVFR CIGS AT TIMES UNTIL
THE CLOUDS BREAK UP APPRECIABLY...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED. KAVL WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY NW WITH SOME GUSTS THRU THE NIGHT. SOME
GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST THRU THE EVENING AT KGSP/KGMU DUE TO MTN GAP
EFFECTS. OTHERWISE ALL TERMINALS SHOULD STAY VFR AND MOSTLY SKC THRU
THE PERIOD...WITH NLY WINDS VEERING LATE TMRW AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 280223
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
923 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM TUE...WITHIN THE LAST HOUR WE HAVE GOTTEN SOME REPORTS
FROM THE WAYNESVILLE AND ASHEVILLE AREAS THAT INDICATE SNOW IS
FALLING OUT OF THE REMAINING UPSLOPE-FORCED CLOUD COVER. I REVISED
FLURRY/SHSN MENTION IN THE FCST BASED ON CLOUD TOP TEMPS...WITH THE
RESULT BEING SHSN OVER THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND SMOKIES WHERE THE
TOPS ARE COLDEST...WITH LESS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTH
WHERE MOISTURE IS EVIDENTLY MORE SHALLOW. FLURRIES WERE MENTIONED IN
TOWARD THE EDGES OF THE CLOUD DECK...WHERE THE FLOW IS MORE
DOWNSLOPE ANYWAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS DONE PRETTY GOOD
IN THIS PATTERN...SHOWS QPF ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SO I MAINTAINED
A DOWNWARD TREND WITH TIME. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES WITH A SHARP FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS SLIDING OFFSHORE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DRY FCST PREVAILS LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW WITH
SKIES NEARLY CLEAR...BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN REMAINING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT AS THE
AFORE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING JUST TO THE NORTH.  THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND
DOWNSLOPING FLOW...ALTHOUGH STILL A TAD BELOW CLIMO. RH LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL TOWARDS CRITICAL LEVELS AS
TEMPERATURES RISE AND DEWPOINTS MIX OUT.  THAT SAID...AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES WILL REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY GUSTING THEREFORE THESE FIRE WX CONCERNS
REMAIN MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD ADVECTION FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEFORE WE GET
THERE...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING
UP THE OH VALLEY AND DAMPENING OUT. ALTHO THERE IS SOME DPVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE THAT MOVES OVERHEAD...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. AS A RESULT...NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS RESPOND
WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP E OF THE MTNS. IN FACT...THE MODELS DELAY THE
ONSET OF PRECIP OVER THE MTNS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN PUSHED BACK IN TIME...AND ELIMINATED OVER THE
PIEDMONT.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT AND
THEN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE MTNS...AND IN PARTICULAR...THE TN BORDER. PRECIP CHANCES WERE
NUDGED UPWARD A BIT MORE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS VERY QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING SUCH
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE FOR AN ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATION OVER PARTS OF THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION. THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW
UPSLOPE MOISTURE DRIES UP DURING MIDDAY ON FRIDAY...LIMITING THE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAISE THE WIND
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS WINDS AT THE TOP OF A
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AT AROUND 50KT. THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL STICK
UP INTO A VERY FAST FLOW. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS HIGH
MOMENTUM AIR WILL REACH THE GROUND. THE COLD ADVECTION SUGGESTS A
SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF IT TO HAPPEN.
WILL MENTION THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HWO ACROSS THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LITTLE MORE THAN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT. 1034 MB SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE SRN SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES
TO UPSTATE NY THROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT CLIPPER DIGGING SE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT WILL
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY. GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS ON A SFC REFLECTION DEEPENING
OVER ERN TX LATE SAT NIGHT AND ROCKETING UP THE FRONTAL
ZONE...MAINLY W OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. FOLLOWING AN ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE BRINGS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
SLOTTING THEN EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE PEAK OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT LIFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
SHOULD YIELD THE BEST PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FARTHER WEST SFC LOW TRACK ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE
RAPID WARMING OF PROFILES THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. STILL...MOST
PROFILES SUPPORT WINTRY PTYPES AT ONSET GIVEN THE COOL WET
BULBS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS THEN RISING TO +3 TO +5 DEGREES C DURING
THE PERIOD OF BEST QPF LATER SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRES TO THE
NE MOVES OFFSHORE QUICKLY...A LINGERING SHALLOW HYBRID CAD
CONFIGURATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NRN TIER. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT RAIN VERSUS SNOW PTYPES
SINCE ANY TRANSITION ZONE LOOKS PRETTY NARROW. SOME INSTABILITY
COULD WRAP UP AROUND THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH TOO SMALL A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO MENTION IT IN THE LOWER
PIEDMONT AT PRESENT.

BRIEF NW FLOW SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. HIGH WINDS COULD BE A PROBLEM WITH THE 850 MB JET
PROGGED TO RUN 50 TO 60 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE COLD ADVECTION
AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AN HWO MENTION MAY BE NEEDED. DRY NW TO W FLOW IS
EXPECTED MON THROUGH TUE. STRONG AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER TO THE N...WITH VERY CHILLY THICKNESSES AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WITH ONLY A FEW MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SEEN THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED THIS EVENING DUE TO SFC LOW PRESSURE TO THE
EAST...BUT NNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WED MRNG.
LEE TROUGHING MIGHT BACK WINDS IN THE EARLY AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...NW FLOW SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF NEAR THE TENN BORDER
THIS EVENING...BUT A CLOUD DECK NEAR THE VFR-MVFR THRESHOLD WILL
LINGER THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. KAVL MAY SEE MVFR CIGS AT TIMES UNTIL
THE CLOUDS BREAK UP APPRECIABLY...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED. KAVL WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY NW WITH SOME GUSTS THRU THE NIGHT. SOME
GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST THRU THE EVENING AT KGSP/KGMU DUE TO MTN GAP
EFFECTS. OTHERWISE ALL TERMINALS SHOULD STAY VFR AND MOSTLY SKC THRU
THE PERIOD...WITH NLY WINDS VEERING LATE TMRW AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 272347
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM TUE...NW FLOW SNOWFALL IS TAPERING OFF. LLVL MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE AT A PEAK AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPS IN THE MTNS SUGGEST SOME SNOW COULD
BE GENERATED BY THE LINGERING LIFT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS
DONE PRETTY GOOD IN THIS PATTERN... SHOWS QPF ENDING THIS EVENING.
REPORTS FROM THE TENNESSEE BORDER ZONES INDICATE FLURRIES FLYING IN
A FEW AREAS BUT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WX ADVY TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 600 PM...AND UPDATED POPS
REFLECT ONLY ISOLD LIGHT SHSN THIS EVENING...WITH JUST FLURRIES
MENTIONED AWAY FROM THE TN BORDER.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES WITH A SHARP FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS SLIDING OFFSHORE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DRY FCST PREVAILS LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW WITH
SKIES NEARLY CLEAR...BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN REMAINING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT AS THE
AFORE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING JUST TO THE NORTH.  THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND
DOWNSLOPING FLOW...ALTHOUGH STILL A TAD BELOW CLIMO. RH LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL TOWARDS CRITICAL LEVELS AS
TEMPERATURES RISE AND DEWPOINTS MIX OUT.  THAT SAID...AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES WILL REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY GUSTING THEREFORE THESE FIRE WX CONCERNS
REMAIN MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD ADVECTION FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEFORE WE GET
THERE...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING
UP THE OH VALLEY AND DAMPENING OUT. ALTHO THERE IS SOME DPVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE THAT MOVES OVERHEAD...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. AS A RESULT...NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS RESPOND
WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP E OF THE MTNS. IN FACT...THE MODELS DELAY THE
ONSET OF PRECIP OVER THE MTNS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN PUSHED BACK IN TIME...AND ELIMINATED OVER THE
PIEDMONT.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT AND
THEN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE MTNS...AND IN PARTICULAR...THE TN BORDER. PRECIP CHANCES WERE
NUDGED UPWARD A BIT MORE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS VERY QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING SUCH
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE FOR AN ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATION OVER PARTS OF THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION. THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW
UPSLOPE MOISTURE DRIES UP DURING MIDDAY ON FRIDAY...LIMITING THE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAISE THE WIND
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS WINDS AT THE TOP OF A
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AT AROUND 50KT. THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL STICK
UP INTO A VERY FAST FLOW. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS HIGH
MOMENTUM AIR WILL REACH THE GROUND. THE COLD ADVECTION SUGGESTS A
SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF IT TO HAPPEN.
WILL MENTION THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HWO ACROSS THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LITTLE MORE THAN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT. 1034 MB SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE SRN SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES
TO UPSTATE NY THROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT CLIPPER DIGGING SE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT WILL
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY. GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS ON A SFC REFLECTION DEEPENING
OVER ERN TX LATE SAT NIGHT AND ROCKETING UP THE FRONTAL
ZONE...MAINLY W OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. FOLLOWING AN ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE BRINGS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
SLOTTING THEN EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE PEAK OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT LIFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
SHOULD YIELD THE BEST PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FARTHER WEST SFC LOW TRACK ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE
RAPID WARMING OF PROFILES THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. STILL...MOST
PROFILES SUPPORT WINTRY PTYPES AT ONSET GIVEN THE COOL WET
BULBS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS THEN RISING TO +3 TO +5 DEGREES C DURING
THE PERIOD OF BEST QPF LATER SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRES TO THE
NE MOVES OFFSHORE QUICKLY...A LINGERING SHALLOW HYBRID CAD
CONFIGURATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NRN TIER. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT RAIN VERSUS SNOW PTYPES
SINCE ANY TRANSITION ZONE LOOKS PRETTY NARROW. SOME INSTABILITY
COULD WRAP UP AROUND THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH TOO SMALL A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO MENTION IT IN THE LOWER
PIEDMONT AT PRESENT.

BRIEF NW FLOW SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. HIGH WINDS COULD BE A PROBLEM WITH THE 850 MB JET
PROGGED TO RUN 50 TO 60 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE COLD ADVECTION
AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AN HWO MENTION MAY BE NEEDED. DRY NW TO W FLOW IS
EXPECTED MON THROUGH TUE. STRONG AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER TO THE N...WITH VERY CHILLY THICKNESSES AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WITH ONLY A FEW MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SEEN THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED THIS EVENING DUE TO SFC LOW PRESSURE TO THE
EAST...BUT NNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WED MRNG.
LEE TROUGHING MIGHT BACK WINDS IN THE EARLY AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...NW FLOW SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF NEAR THE TENN BORDER
THIS EVENING...BUT A CLOUD DECK NEAR THE VFR-MVFR THRESHOLD WILL
LINGER THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. KAVL MAY SEE MVFR CIGS AT TIMES UNTIL
THE CLOUDS BREAK UP APPRECIABLY...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED. KAVL WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY NW WITH SOME GUSTS THRU THE NIGHT. SOME
GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST THRU THE EVENING AT KGSP/KGMU DUE TO MTN GAP
EFFECTS. OTHERWISE ALL TERMINALS SHOULD STAY VFR AND MOSTLY SKC THRU
THE PERIOD...WITH NLY WINDS VEERING LATE TMRW AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY





000
FXUS62 KGSP 272347
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM TUE...NW FLOW SNOWFALL IS TAPERING OFF. LLVL MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE AT A PEAK AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPS IN THE MTNS SUGGEST SOME SNOW COULD
BE GENERATED BY THE LINGERING LIFT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS
DONE PRETTY GOOD IN THIS PATTERN... SHOWS QPF ENDING THIS EVENING.
REPORTS FROM THE TENNESSEE BORDER ZONES INDICATE FLURRIES FLYING IN
A FEW AREAS BUT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WX ADVY TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 600 PM...AND UPDATED POPS
REFLECT ONLY ISOLD LIGHT SHSN THIS EVENING...WITH JUST FLURRIES
MENTIONED AWAY FROM THE TN BORDER.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES WITH A SHARP FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS SLIDING OFFSHORE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DRY FCST PREVAILS LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW WITH
SKIES NEARLY CLEAR...BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN REMAINING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT AS THE
AFORE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING JUST TO THE NORTH.  THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND
DOWNSLOPING FLOW...ALTHOUGH STILL A TAD BELOW CLIMO. RH LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL TOWARDS CRITICAL LEVELS AS
TEMPERATURES RISE AND DEWPOINTS MIX OUT.  THAT SAID...AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES WILL REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY GUSTING THEREFORE THESE FIRE WX CONCERNS
REMAIN MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD ADVECTION FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEFORE WE GET
THERE...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING
UP THE OH VALLEY AND DAMPENING OUT. ALTHO THERE IS SOME DPVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE THAT MOVES OVERHEAD...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. AS A RESULT...NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS RESPOND
WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP E OF THE MTNS. IN FACT...THE MODELS DELAY THE
ONSET OF PRECIP OVER THE MTNS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN PUSHED BACK IN TIME...AND ELIMINATED OVER THE
PIEDMONT.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT AND
THEN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE MTNS...AND IN PARTICULAR...THE TN BORDER. PRECIP CHANCES WERE
NUDGED UPWARD A BIT MORE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS VERY QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING SUCH
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE FOR AN ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATION OVER PARTS OF THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION. THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW
UPSLOPE MOISTURE DRIES UP DURING MIDDAY ON FRIDAY...LIMITING THE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAISE THE WIND
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS WINDS AT THE TOP OF A
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AT AROUND 50KT. THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL STICK
UP INTO A VERY FAST FLOW. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS HIGH
MOMENTUM AIR WILL REACH THE GROUND. THE COLD ADVECTION SUGGESTS A
SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF IT TO HAPPEN.
WILL MENTION THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HWO ACROSS THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LITTLE MORE THAN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT. 1034 MB SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE SRN SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES
TO UPSTATE NY THROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT CLIPPER DIGGING SE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT WILL
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY. GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS ON A SFC REFLECTION DEEPENING
OVER ERN TX LATE SAT NIGHT AND ROCKETING UP THE FRONTAL
ZONE...MAINLY W OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. FOLLOWING AN ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE BRINGS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
SLOTTING THEN EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE PEAK OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT LIFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
SHOULD YIELD THE BEST PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FARTHER WEST SFC LOW TRACK ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE
RAPID WARMING OF PROFILES THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. STILL...MOST
PROFILES SUPPORT WINTRY PTYPES AT ONSET GIVEN THE COOL WET
BULBS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS THEN RISING TO +3 TO +5 DEGREES C DURING
THE PERIOD OF BEST QPF LATER SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRES TO THE
NE MOVES OFFSHORE QUICKLY...A LINGERING SHALLOW HYBRID CAD
CONFIGURATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NRN TIER. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT RAIN VERSUS SNOW PTYPES
SINCE ANY TRANSITION ZONE LOOKS PRETTY NARROW. SOME INSTABILITY
COULD WRAP UP AROUND THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH TOO SMALL A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO MENTION IT IN THE LOWER
PIEDMONT AT PRESENT.

BRIEF NW FLOW SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. HIGH WINDS COULD BE A PROBLEM WITH THE 850 MB JET
PROGGED TO RUN 50 TO 60 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE COLD ADVECTION
AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AN HWO MENTION MAY BE NEEDED. DRY NW TO W FLOW IS
EXPECTED MON THROUGH TUE. STRONG AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER TO THE N...WITH VERY CHILLY THICKNESSES AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WITH ONLY A FEW MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SEEN THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED THIS EVENING DUE TO SFC LOW PRESSURE TO THE
EAST...BUT NNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WED MRNG.
LEE TROUGHING MIGHT BACK WINDS IN THE EARLY AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...NW FLOW SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF NEAR THE TENN BORDER
THIS EVENING...BUT A CLOUD DECK NEAR THE VFR-MVFR THRESHOLD WILL
LINGER THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. KAVL MAY SEE MVFR CIGS AT TIMES UNTIL
THE CLOUDS BREAK UP APPRECIABLY...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED. KAVL WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY NW WITH SOME GUSTS THRU THE NIGHT. SOME
GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST THRU THE EVENING AT KGSP/KGMU DUE TO MTN GAP
EFFECTS. OTHERWISE ALL TERMINALS SHOULD STAY VFR AND MOSTLY SKC THRU
THE PERIOD...WITH NLY WINDS VEERING LATE TMRW AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...A PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS THU AND FRI. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271940
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WITH A SHARP FULL LATITUDE TROF
AXIS SLIDING OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE H5 RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG THE WESTWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE SMOKIES.
THUS...OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH WW ADVISORY THROUGH 6PM WHEN WINDS
VEER/WEAKEN AND LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER THINS.  FCST CONTINUES WITH
CHANCE/LIKELY LEVEL POPS ALONG THE TN LINE THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY
TO A SLOW DECLINE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.  QPF REMAINS RATHER LOW IN THE
NEAR TERM THEREFORE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY LESS
AND AN INCH OR TWO ARE FCST.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED FROM THE REGION
NLT 03Z.

BEYOND THE LINGERING SNOWFALL MENTIONED ABOVE...A DRY FCST PREVAILS
WITH SKIES SLOWLY SCATTERING OUT FROM THE EAST WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN
REMAINING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHTS
WILL RISE ALOFT AS THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING JUST TO THE NORTH.  THIS WILL LEND
ITSELF TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT
INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW...ALTHOUGH STILL A TAD BELOW CLIMO.
RH LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL TOWARDS CRITICAL LEVELS
AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND DEWPOINTS MIX OUT.  THAT SAID...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES WILL REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY GUSTING THEREFORE THESE FIRE WX CONCERNS
REMAIN MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD ADVECTION FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEFORE WE GET
THERE...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING
UP THE OH VALLEY AND DAMPENING OUT. ALTHO THERE IS SOME DPVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE THAT MOVES OVERHEAD...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. AS A RESULT...NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS RESPOND
WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP E OF THE MTNS. IN FACT...THE MODELS DELAY THE
ONSET OF PRECIP OVER THE MTNS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN PUSHED BACK IN TIME...AND ELIMINATED OVER THE
PIEDMONT.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT AND
THEN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE MTNS...AND IN PARTICULAR...THE TN BORDER. PRECIP CHANCES WERE
NUDGED UPWARD A BIT MORE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS VERY QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING SUCH
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE FOR AN ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATION OVER PARTS OF THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION. THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW
UPSLOPE MOISTURE DRIES UP DURING MIDDAY ON FRIDAY...LIMITING THE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAISE THE WIND
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS WINDS AT THE TOP OF A
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AT AROUND 50KT. THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL STICK
UP INTO A VERY FAST FLOW. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS HIGH
MOMENTUM AIR WILL REACH THE GROUND. THE COLD ADVECTION SUGGESTS A
SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF IT TO HAPPEN.
WILL MENTION THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HWO ACROSS THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LITTLE MORE THAN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT. 1034 MB SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE SRN SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES
TO UPSTATE NY THROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT CLIPPER DIGGING SE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT WILL
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY. GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS ON A SFC REFLECTION DEEPENING
OVER ERN TX LATE SAT NIGHT AND ROCKETING UP THE FRONTAL
ZONE...MAINLY W OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. FOLLOWING AN ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE BRINGS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
SLOTTING THEN EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE PEAK OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT LIFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
SHOULD YIELD THE BEST PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FARTHER WEST SFC LOW TRACK ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE
RAPID WARMING OF PROFILES THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. STILL...MOST
PROFILES SUPPORT WINTRY PTYPES AT ONSET GIVEN THE COOL WET
BULBS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS THEN RISING TO +3 TO +5 DEGREES C DURING
THE PERIOD OF BEST QPF LATER SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRES TO THE
NE MOVES OFFSHORE QUICKLY...A LINGERING SHALLOW HYBRID CAD
CONFIGURATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NRN TIER. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT RAIN VERSUS SNOW PTYPES
SINCE ANY TRANSITION ZONE LOOKS PRETTY NARROW. SOME INSTABILITY
COULD WRAP UP AROUND THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH TOO SMALL A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO MENTION IT IN THE LOWER
PIEDMONT AT PRESENT.

BRIEF NW FLOW SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. HIGH WINDS COULD BE A PROBLEM WITH THE 850 MB JET
PROGGED TO RUN 50 TO 60 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE COLD ADVECTION
AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AN HWO MENTION MAY BE NEEDED. DRY NW TO W FLOW IS
EXPECTED MON THROUGH TUE. STRONG AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER TO THE N...WITH VERY CHILLY THICKNESSES AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MID
LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE BEFORE SCT OUT TOWARDS SUNSET.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
MIXING AND PGFS RELAX.  OTHERWISE...TAFS FEATURE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST CLEAR
SKIES.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AT KAVL WHERE UPSTREAM SNOW SHOWERS ADVECT MVFR CIGS UP
THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY INTO KAVL.  THUS...KAVL TAF FEATURES BRIEF
WINDOW OF MVFR AT INITIALIZATION BEFORE INCREASING TO LOW VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH MID LEVEL CIGS SCT OUT INTO THE EVENING
LEADING TO SKC THROUGH PERIODS END.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET
YIELDING LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-
     051-052-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 271940
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WITH A SHARP FULL LATITUDE TROF
AXIS SLIDING OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE H5 RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG THE WESTWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE SMOKIES.
THUS...OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH WW ADVISORY THROUGH 6PM WHEN WINDS
VEER/WEAKEN AND LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER THINS.  FCST CONTINUES WITH
CHANCE/LIKELY LEVEL POPS ALONG THE TN LINE THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY
TO A SLOW DECLINE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.  QPF REMAINS RATHER LOW IN THE
NEAR TERM THEREFORE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY LESS
AND AN INCH OR TWO ARE FCST.  ALL POPS ARE REMOVED FROM THE REGION
NLT 03Z.

BEYOND THE LINGERING SNOWFALL MENTIONED ABOVE...A DRY FCST PREVAILS
WITH SKIES SLOWLY SCATTERING OUT FROM THE EAST WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN
REMAINING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHTS
WILL RISE ALOFT AS THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING JUST TO THE NORTH.  THIS WILL LEND
ITSELF TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT
INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW...ALTHOUGH STILL A TAD BELOW CLIMO.
RH LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL TOWARDS CRITICAL LEVELS
AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND DEWPOINTS MIX OUT.  THAT SAID...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES WILL REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY GUSTING THEREFORE THESE FIRE WX CONCERNS
REMAIN MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD ADVECTION FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEFORE WE GET
THERE...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING
UP THE OH VALLEY AND DAMPENING OUT. ALTHO THERE IS SOME DPVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE THAT MOVES OVERHEAD...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. AS A RESULT...NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS RESPOND
WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP E OF THE MTNS. IN FACT...THE MODELS DELAY THE
ONSET OF PRECIP OVER THE MTNS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN PUSHED BACK IN TIME...AND ELIMINATED OVER THE
PIEDMONT.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT AND
THEN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE MTNS...AND IN PARTICULAR...THE TN BORDER. PRECIP CHANCES WERE
NUDGED UPWARD A BIT MORE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS VERY QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING SUCH
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE FOR AN ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATION OVER PARTS OF THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE DURATION. THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW
UPSLOPE MOISTURE DRIES UP DURING MIDDAY ON FRIDAY...LIMITING THE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAISE THE WIND
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS WINDS AT THE TOP OF A
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AT AROUND 50KT. THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL STICK
UP INTO A VERY FAST FLOW. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS HIGH
MOMENTUM AIR WILL REACH THE GROUND. THE COLD ADVECTION SUGGESTS A
SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF IT TO HAPPEN.
WILL MENTION THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HWO ACROSS THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LITTLE MORE THAN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT. 1034 MB SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE SRN SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES
TO UPSTATE NY THROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT CLIPPER DIGGING SE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT WILL
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY. GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS ON A SFC REFLECTION DEEPENING
OVER ERN TX LATE SAT NIGHT AND ROCKETING UP THE FRONTAL
ZONE...MAINLY W OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. FOLLOWING AN ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE BRINGS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
SLOTTING THEN EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE PEAK OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT LIFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
SHOULD YIELD THE BEST PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FARTHER WEST SFC LOW TRACK ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE
RAPID WARMING OF PROFILES THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. STILL...MOST
PROFILES SUPPORT WINTRY PTYPES AT ONSET GIVEN THE COOL WET
BULBS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS THEN RISING TO +3 TO +5 DEGREES C DURING
THE PERIOD OF BEST QPF LATER SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRES TO THE
NE MOVES OFFSHORE QUICKLY...A LINGERING SHALLOW HYBRID CAD
CONFIGURATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NRN TIER. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT RAIN VERSUS SNOW PTYPES
SINCE ANY TRANSITION ZONE LOOKS PRETTY NARROW. SOME INSTABILITY
COULD WRAP UP AROUND THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITH TOO SMALL A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO MENTION IT IN THE LOWER
PIEDMONT AT PRESENT.

BRIEF NW FLOW SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. HIGH WINDS COULD BE A PROBLEM WITH THE 850 MB JET
PROGGED TO RUN 50 TO 60 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE COLD ADVECTION
AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AN HWO MENTION MAY BE NEEDED. DRY NW TO W FLOW IS
EXPECTED MON THROUGH TUE. STRONG AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER TO THE N...WITH VERY CHILLY THICKNESSES AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MID
LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE BEFORE SCT OUT TOWARDS SUNSET.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
MIXING AND PGFS RELAX.  OTHERWISE...TAFS FEATURE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST CLEAR
SKIES.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AT KAVL WHERE UPSTREAM SNOW SHOWERS ADVECT MVFR CIGS UP
THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY INTO KAVL.  THUS...KAVL TAF FEATURES BRIEF
WINDOW OF MVFR AT INITIALIZATION BEFORE INCREASING TO LOW VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH MID LEVEL CIGS SCT OUT INTO THE EVENING
LEADING TO SKC THROUGH PERIODS END.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET
YIELDING LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-
     051-052-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271731
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1231 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST TUESDAY...OPTED TO EXTENDED CURRENT WW ADVISORY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A NEW EXPIRATION TIME OF 6PM THIS EVENING
DUE TO CONTINUED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT PER KMRX RADAR.  IN
ADDITION...NEW GFS GUIDANCE AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM WITH
BOTH YIELDING SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
WESTWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE SW MTNS INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...BAND OF LIGHT FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT HAVE
FADED LEADING TO SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITIONS.  FCST CONTINUES
TO FEATURE GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOW TERRAIN.  ALSO MADE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 230 AM EST TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. STRONG CHANNELED VORTICITY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...WEAKENING TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL KEEP A MOIST NW FLOW DIRECTED INTO THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING
TN...WHERE SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOIST LAYER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NO HIGHER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE CURRENT ADVISORY WILL BE
LEFT IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND SEVEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
RATHER QUIET...SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY...AS THE EASTERN LONG WAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN A BIT IN RESPONSE TO PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
RIDGING. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AGAIN AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID-ATLANTIC....SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER COOL DOWN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE INTERIM...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS POST-FRONTAL...SUGGESTING THAT
DESPITE DECENT DIVERGENCE IN THE LRQ OF A 125-PLUS KT UPPER JET
MAX...MOST OF THE IMPETUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
MAY WELL BE NORTHWEST/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE HIGHEST POPS (50-60) WILL
THEREFORE BE FEATURED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...TAPERING TO ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THERMO PROFILES SUGGEST A
PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT...WITH AN OUTSIDE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
MTNS IF PRECIP BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY THURSDAY. A TRANSITION
TO NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME THU NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
AREAS.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MTNS THU NIGHT...AS GRADUALLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE PROGGED PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND 40-50 KTS OF H8 FLOW SUGGEST A
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT...BUT WILL WAIT TO
EVALUATE ANOTHER COUPLE OF CYCLES OF MODEL DATA BEFORE TALKING THIS
UP IN ANY OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
REVOLVE AROUND THE PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE EAST...AS A RATHER DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DETAILS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A MAJOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF
THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID-
MISS/TENN/OHIO VALLEY ALONG STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE
THERE WAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) WINTER
WEATHER EVENT SUGGESTED IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE GROWING
CONSENSUS OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE PASSING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN AN UNSUITABLE LOCATION FOR STRONG COLD
AIR DAMMING...IS NOT AT ALL FAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL TRANSIENT P-TYPE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AT PRECIP INSET). PER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT (RAIN/SNOW MTNS...RAIN
ELSEWHERE)...BUT IF THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS CARRY TO THE NEXT
CYCLE...A TRANSITION TOWARD A /RAIN ONLY/ FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MID
LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE BEFORE SCT OUT TOWARDS SUNSET.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
MIXING AND PGFS RELAX.  OTHERWISE...TAFS FEATURE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST CLEAR
SKIES.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AT KAVL WHERE UPSTREAM SNOW SHOWERS ADVECT MVFR CIGS UP
THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY INTO KAVL.  THUS...KAVL TAF FEATURES BRIEF
WINDOW OF MVFR AT INITIALIZATION BEFORE INCREASING TO LOW VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH MID LEVEL CIGS SCT OUT INTO THE EVENING
LEADING TO SKC THROUGH PERIODS END.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET
YIELDING LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-
     051-052-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG





000
FXUS62 KGSP 271731
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1231 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOIST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST TUESDAY...OPTED TO EXTENDED CURRENT WW ADVISORY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A NEW EXPIRATION TIME OF 6PM THIS EVENING
DUE TO CONTINUED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT PER KMRX RADAR.  IN
ADDITION...NEW GFS GUIDANCE AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM WITH
BOTH YIELDING SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
WESTWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE SW MTNS INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...BAND OF LIGHT FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT HAVE
FADED LEADING TO SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITIONS.  FCST CONTINUES
TO FEATURE GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOW TERRAIN.  ALSO MADE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 230 AM EST TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. STRONG CHANNELED VORTICITY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...WEAKENING TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL KEEP A MOIST NW FLOW DIRECTED INTO THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING
TN...WHERE SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOIST LAYER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NO HIGHER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE CURRENT ADVISORY WILL BE
LEFT IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND SEVEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
RATHER QUIET...SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY...AS THE EASTERN LONG WAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN A BIT IN RESPONSE TO PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
RIDGING. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AGAIN AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID-ATLANTIC....SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER COOL DOWN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE INTERIM...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS POST-FRONTAL...SUGGESTING THAT
DESPITE DECENT DIVERGENCE IN THE LRQ OF A 125-PLUS KT UPPER JET
MAX...MOST OF THE IMPETUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
MAY WELL BE NORTHWEST/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE HIGHEST POPS (50-60) WILL
THEREFORE BE FEATURED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...TAPERING TO ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THERMO PROFILES SUGGEST A
PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT...WITH AN OUTSIDE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
MTNS IF PRECIP BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY THURSDAY. A TRANSITION
TO NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME THU NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
AREAS.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MTNS THU NIGHT...AS GRADUALLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE PROGGED PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND 40-50 KTS OF H8 FLOW SUGGEST A
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT...BUT WILL WAIT TO
EVALUATE ANOTHER COUPLE OF CYCLES OF MODEL DATA BEFORE TALKING THIS
UP IN ANY OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
REVOLVE AROUND THE PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE EAST...AS A RATHER DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DETAILS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A MAJOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF
THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID-
MISS/TENN/OHIO VALLEY ALONG STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE
THERE WAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) WINTER
WEATHER EVENT SUGGESTED IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE GROWING
CONSENSUS OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE PASSING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN AN UNSUITABLE LOCATION FOR STRONG COLD
AIR DAMMING...IS NOT AT ALL FAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL TRANSIENT P-TYPE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AT PRECIP INSET). PER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT (RAIN/SNOW MTNS...RAIN
ELSEWHERE)...BUT IF THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS CARRY TO THE NEXT
CYCLE...A TRANSITION TOWARD A /RAIN ONLY/ FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MID
LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE BEFORE SCT OUT TOWARDS SUNSET.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
MIXING AND PGFS RELAX.  OTHERWISE...TAFS FEATURE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AMIDST CLEAR
SKIES.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AT KAVL WHERE UPSTREAM SNOW SHOWERS ADVECT MVFR CIGS UP
THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY INTO KAVL.  THUS...KAVL TAF FEATURES BRIEF
WINDOW OF MVFR AT INITIALIZATION BEFORE INCREASING TO LOW VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH MID LEVEL CIGS SCT OUT INTO THE EVENING
LEADING TO SKC THROUGH PERIODS END.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET
YIELDING LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   58%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048-
     051-052-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271446
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
946 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
ITS WAKE. A MUCH WETTER FRONTAL ZONE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR KMRX RADAR ANALYSIS
INDICATES CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN LINE...PRIMARILY
CONCENTRATED ATOP THE SMOKIES.  THUS...WILL CANCEL CURRENT WW ADV
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NC WHILE CONTINUING THE ADV
FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN ZONES THROUGH THE ORIGINAL EXPIRATION
TIME OF NOON TODAY.  TWEAKED POPS DOWN A BIT ALONG THE ENTIRE MTN
RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST...LIKELY LEVEL POPS REMAINING OVER THE
SMOKIES BEFORE DECREASING BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS BY 00Z.
OTHERWISE...FCST REMAINS CONSISTENT AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW ALLOWS SKIES
TO SCT THROUGH MORNING OVER THE LOW TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST
GA...UPSTATE SC...AND NC PIEDMONT.  ALSO BLENDED IN LATEST CONS
GUIDANCE AS IT PERTAINS TO MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH DIDNT
YIELD ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.  LASTLY...ADDED REGION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WHERE LIGHT FLURRIES ARE FALLING FROM MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 230 AM EST TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. STRONG CHANNELED VORTICITY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...WEAKENING TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL KEEP A MOIST NW FLOW DIRECTED INTO THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING
TN...WHERE SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOIST LAYER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NO HIGHER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE CURRENT ADVISORY WILL BE
LEFT IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND SEVEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
RATHER QUIET...SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY...AS THE EASTERN LONG WAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN A BIT IN RESPONSE TO PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
RIDGING. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AGAIN AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID-ATLANTIC....SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER COOL DOWN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE INTERIM...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS POST-FRONTAL...SUGGESTING THAT
DESPITE DECENT DIVERGENCE IN THE LRQ OF A 125-PLUS KT UPPER JET
MAX...MOST OF THE IMPETUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
MAY WELL BE NORTHWEST/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE HIGHEST POPS (50-60) WILL
THEREFORE BE FEATURED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...TAPERING TO ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THERMO PROFILES SUGGEST A
PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT...WITH AN OUTSIDE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
MTNS IF PRECIP BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY THURSDAY. A TRANSITION
TO NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME THU NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
AREAS.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MTNS THU NIGHT...AS GRADUALLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE PROGGED PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND 40-50 KTS OF H8 FLOW SUGGEST A
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT...BUT WILL WAIT TO
EVALUATE ANOTHER COUPLE OF CYCLES OF MODEL DATA BEFORE TALKING THIS
UP IN ANY OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
REVOLVE AROUND THE PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE EAST...AS A RATHER DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DETAILS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A MAJOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF
THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID-
MISS/TENN/OHIO VALLEY ALONG STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE
THERE WAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) WINTER
WEATHER EVENT SUGGESTED IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE GROWING
CONSENSUS OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE PASSING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN AN UNSUITABLE LOCATION FOR STRONG COLD
AIR DAMMING...IS NOT AT ALL FAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL TRANSIENT P-TYPE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AT PRECIP INSET). PER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT (RAIN/SNOW MTNS...RAIN
ELSEWHERE)...BUT IF THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS CARRY TO THE NEXT
CYCLE...A TRANSITION TOWARD A /RAIN ONLY/ FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. CLOUD COVER TRENDS NOT LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN BRIEF VFR CIG TODAY...AND WITHOUT PRECIPITATION...VSBY
WILL BE UNRESTRICTED. NW WINDS PICK UP AND GET A BIT GUSTY DURING
THE DAY. WINDS TAKE THEIR TIME DIMINISHING ON TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SOME CLOUD COVER REACHING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT
CIGS THERE WILL BE VFR. KAVL WILL HOLD ON TO AN MVFR CIG UNTIL
MOISTURE START TO RETREAT TO THE NW TOWARD MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
NOT REACHING PAST THE MOUNTAINS...OR EVEN TO KAVL...FAVORING VFR
VSBY. NW WINDS WILL GET GUSTY TODAY...AND DIMINISH ONLY SLOWLY
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   64%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048-051-
     052-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271114
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
ITS WAKE. A MUCH WETTER FRONTAL ZONE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED FROM THE LATEST. CLOUD COVER
WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. STRONG CHANNELED VORTICITY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...WEAKENING TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL KEEP A MOIST NW FLOW DIRECTED INTO THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING
TN...WHERE SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOIST LAYER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NO HIGHER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE CURRENT ADVISORY WILL BE
LEFT IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND SEVEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
RATHER QUIET...SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY...AS THE EASTERN LONG WAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN A BIT IN RESPONSE TO PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
RIDGING. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AGAIN AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID-ATLANTIC....SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER COOL DOWN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE INTERIM...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS POST-FRONTAL...SUGGESTING THAT
DESPITE DECENT DIVERGENCE IN THE LRQ OF A 125-PLUS KT UPPER JET
MAX...MOST OF THE IMPETUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
MAY WELL BE NORTHWEST/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE HIGHEST POPS (50-60) WILL
THEREFORE BE FEATURED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...TAPERING TO ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THERMO PROFILES SUGGEST A
PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT...WITH AN OUTSIDE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
MTNS IF PRECIP BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY THURSDAY. A TRANSITION
TO NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME THU NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
AREAS.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MTNS THU NIGHT...AS GRADUALLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE PROGGED PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND 40-50 KTS OF H8 FLOW SUGGEST A
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT...BUT WILL WAIT TO
EVALUATE ANOTHER COUPLE OF CYCLES OF MODEL DATA BEFORE TALKING THIS
UP IN ANY OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
REVOLVE AROUND THE PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE EAST...AS A RATHER DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DETAILS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A MAJOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF
THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID-
MISS/TENN/OHIO VALLEY ALONG STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE
THERE WAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) WINTER
WEATHER EVENT SUGGESTED IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE GROWING
CONSENSUS OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE PASSING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN AN UNSUITABLE LOCATION FOR STRONG COLD
AIR DAMMING...IS NOT AT ALL FAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL TRANSIENT P-TYPE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AT PRECIP INSET). PER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT (RAIN/SNOW MTNS...RAIN
ELSEWHERE)...BUT IF THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS CARRY TO THE NEXT
CYCLE...A TRANSITION TOWARD A /RAIN ONLY/ FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. CLOUD COVER TRENDS NOT LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN BRIEF VFR CIG TODAY...AND WITHOUT PRECIPITATION...VSBY
WILL BE UNRESTRICTED. NW WINDS PICK UP AND GET A BIT GUSTY DURING
THE DAY. WINDS TAKE THEIR TIME DIMINISHING ON TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SOME CLOUD COVER REACHING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT
CIGS THERE WILL BE VFR. KAVL WILL HOLD ON TO AN MVFR CIG UNTIL
MOISTURE START TO RETREAT TO THE NW TOWARD MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION
IS NOT REACHING PAST THE MOUNTAINS...OR EVEN TO KAVL...FAVORING
VFR VSBY. NW WINDS WILL GET GUSTY TODAY...AND DIMINISH ONLY SLOWLY
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   57%     MED   62%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>052-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




000
FXUS62 KGSP 271114
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
ITS WAKE. A MUCH WETTER FRONTAL ZONE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UTC UPDATE...WINDS WERE UPDATED FROM THE LATEST. CLOUD COVER
WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AT 230 AM EST TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. STRONG CHANNELED VORTICITY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...WEAKENING TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL KEEP A MOIST NW FLOW DIRECTED INTO THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING
TN...WHERE SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOIST LAYER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NO HIGHER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE CURRENT ADVISORY WILL BE
LEFT IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND SEVEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
RATHER QUIET...SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY...AS THE EASTERN LONG WAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN A BIT IN RESPONSE TO PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
RIDGING. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AGAIN AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID-ATLANTIC....SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER COOL DOWN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE INTERIM...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS POST-FRONTAL...SUGGESTING THAT
DESPITE DECENT DIVERGENCE IN THE LRQ OF A 125-PLUS KT UPPER JET
MAX...MOST OF THE IMPETUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
MAY WELL BE NORTHWEST/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE HIGHEST POPS (50-60) WILL
THEREFORE BE FEATURED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...TAPERING TO ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THERMO PROFILES SUGGEST A
PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT...WITH AN OUTSIDE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
MTNS IF PRECIP BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY THURSDAY. A TRANSITION
TO NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME THU NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
AREAS.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MTNS THU NIGHT...AS GRADUALLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE PROGGED PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND 40-50 KTS OF H8 FLOW SUGGEST A
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT...BUT WILL WAIT TO
EVALUATE ANOTHER COUPLE OF CYCLES OF MODEL DATA BEFORE TALKING THIS
UP IN ANY OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
REVOLVE AROUND THE PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE EAST...AS A RATHER DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DETAILS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A MAJOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF
THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID-
MISS/TENN/OHIO VALLEY ALONG STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE
THERE WAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) WINTER
WEATHER EVENT SUGGESTED IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE GROWING
CONSENSUS OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE PASSING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN AN UNSUITABLE LOCATION FOR STRONG COLD
AIR DAMMING...IS NOT AT ALL FAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL TRANSIENT P-TYPE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AT PRECIP INSET). PER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT (RAIN/SNOW MTNS...RAIN
ELSEWHERE)...BUT IF THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS CARRY TO THE NEXT
CYCLE...A TRANSITION TOWARD A /RAIN ONLY/ FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. CLOUD COVER TRENDS NOT LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN BRIEF VFR CIG TODAY...AND WITHOUT PRECIPITATION...VSBY
WILL BE UNRESTRICTED. NW WINDS PICK UP AND GET A BIT GUSTY DURING
THE DAY. WINDS TAKE THEIR TIME DIMINISHING ON TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SOME CLOUD COVER REACHING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT
CIGS THERE WILL BE VFR. KAVL WILL HOLD ON TO AN MVFR CIG UNTIL
MOISTURE START TO RETREAT TO THE NW TOWARD MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION
IS NOT REACHING PAST THE MOUNTAINS...OR EVEN TO KAVL...FAVORING
VFR VSBY. NW WINDS WILL GET GUSTY TODAY...AND DIMINISH ONLY SLOWLY
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       LOW   57%     MED   62%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>052-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 270844
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
ITS WAKE. A MUCH WETTER FRONTAL ZONE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EST TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. STRONG CHANNELED VORTICITY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...WEAKENING TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL KEEP A MOIST NW FLOW DIRECTED INTO THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING
TN...WHERE SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOIST LAYER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NO HIGHER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE CURRENT ADVISORY WILL BE
LEFT IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND SEVEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
RATHER QUIET...SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY...AS THE EASTERN LONG WAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN A BIT IN RESPONSE TO PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
RIDGING. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AGAIN AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID-ATLANTIC....SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER COOL DOWN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE INTERIM...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS POST-FRONTAL...SUGGESTING THAT
DESPITE DECENT DIVERGENCE IN THE LRQ OF A 125-PLUS KT UPPER JET
MAX...MOST OF THE IMPETUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
MAY WELL BE NORTHWEST/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE HIGHEST POPS (50-60) WILL
THEREFORE BE FEATURED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...TAPERING TO ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THERMO PROFILES SUGGEST A
PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT...WITH AN OUTSIDE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
MTNS IF PRECIP BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY THURSDAY. A TRANSITION
TO NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME THU NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
AREAS.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MTNS THU NIGHT...AS GRADUALLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE PROGGED PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND 40-50 KTS OF H8 FLOW SUGGEST A
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT...BUT WILL WAIT TO
EVALUATE ANOTHER COUPLE OF CYCLES OF MODEL DATA BEFORE TALKING THIS
UP IN ANY OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
REVOLVE AROUND THE PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE EAST...AS A RATHER DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DETAILS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A MAJOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF
THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID-
MISS/TENN/OHIO VALLEY ALONG STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE
THERE WAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) WINTER
WEATHER EVENT SUGGESTED IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE GROWING
CONSENSUS OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE PASSING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN AN UNSUITABLE LOCATION FOR STRONG COLD
AIR DAMMING...IS NOT AT ALL FAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL TRANSIENT P-TYPE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AT PRECIP INSET). PER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT (RAIN/SNOW MTNS...RAIN
ELSEWHERE)...BUT IF THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS CARRY TO THE NEXT
CYCLE...A TRANSITION TOWARD A /RAIN ONLY/ FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW VFR CIG RETURNING AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND LASTING INTO LATE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUD COVER
DECREASES. NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD DAWN...THEN PICK
BACK UP AND GET A BIT GUSTY DURING THE DAY. WINDS TAKE THEIR TIME
DIMINISHING ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE SUPPORTS VFR CIGS RETURNING TO THE FOOTHILLS
BEFORE DAWN...WITH MVFR AT KAVL. CIGS WOULD END IN THE MORNING AT
FOOTHILLS SITES AS CLOUDS COVER DECREASES...BUT THE MVFR CIGS AT
KAVL WOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ERODING. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KAVL AND KGSP...THE LATER DUE TO MOUNTAIN
GAP WINDS. AFTER DAYBREAK MODEST WIND GUSTS PICK UP AT OTHER
FOOTHILLS SITES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
FOOTHILLS. KAVL APPEARS TO BE ON THE SE FRINGE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  89%     LOW   58%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>052-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT





000
FXUS62 KGSP 270844
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
ITS WAKE. A MUCH WETTER FRONTAL ZONE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EST TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. STRONG CHANNELED VORTICITY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...WEAKENING TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL KEEP A MOIST NW FLOW DIRECTED INTO THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING
TN...WHERE SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOIST LAYER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NO HIGHER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE CURRENT ADVISORY WILL BE
LEFT IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND SEVEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
RATHER QUIET...SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY...AS THE EASTERN LONG WAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN A BIT IN RESPONSE TO PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
RIDGING. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AGAIN AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID-ATLANTIC....SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER COOL DOWN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE INTERIM...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS POST-FRONTAL...SUGGESTING THAT
DESPITE DECENT DIVERGENCE IN THE LRQ OF A 125-PLUS KT UPPER JET
MAX...MOST OF THE IMPETUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
MAY WELL BE NORTHWEST/UPSLOPE FLOW. THE HIGHEST POPS (50-60) WILL
THEREFORE BE FEATURED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC MTNS...TAPERING TO ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THERMO PROFILES SUGGEST A
PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT...WITH AN OUTSIDE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
MTNS IF PRECIP BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY THURSDAY. A TRANSITION
TO NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME THU NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
AREAS.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MTNS THU NIGHT...AS GRADUALLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE PROGGED PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND 40-50 KTS OF H8 FLOW SUGGEST A
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT...BUT WILL WAIT TO
EVALUATE ANOTHER COUPLE OF CYCLES OF MODEL DATA BEFORE TALKING THIS
UP IN ANY OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
REVOLVE AROUND THE PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE EAST...AS A RATHER DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DETAILS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS A MAJOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF
THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID-
MISS/TENN/OHIO VALLEY ALONG STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE
THERE WAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) WINTER
WEATHER EVENT SUGGESTED IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE GROWING
CONSENSUS OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE PASSING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN AN UNSUITABLE LOCATION FOR STRONG COLD
AIR DAMMING...IS NOT AT ALL FAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL TRANSIENT P-TYPE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AT PRECIP INSET). PER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT (RAIN/SNOW MTNS...RAIN
ELSEWHERE)...BUT IF THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS CARRY TO THE NEXT
CYCLE...A TRANSITION TOWARD A /RAIN ONLY/ FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW VFR CIG RETURNING AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND LASTING INTO LATE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUD COVER
DECREASES. NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD DAWN...THEN PICK
BACK UP AND GET A BIT GUSTY DURING THE DAY. WINDS TAKE THEIR TIME
DIMINISHING ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE SUPPORTS VFR CIGS RETURNING TO THE FOOTHILLS
BEFORE DAWN...WITH MVFR AT KAVL. CIGS WOULD END IN THE MORNING AT
FOOTHILLS SITES AS CLOUDS COVER DECREASES...BUT THE MVFR CIGS AT
KAVL WOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ERODING. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KAVL AND KGSP...THE LATER DUE TO MOUNTAIN
GAP WINDS. AFTER DAYBREAK MODEST WIND GUSTS PICK UP AT OTHER
FOOTHILLS SITES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
FOOTHILLS. KAVL APPEARS TO BE ON THE SE FRINGE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF KAVL...BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  89%     LOW   58%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>052-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT




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